Latest / Toadstool Sports / NFL Week 3 BEST BETS | Secret Bagent Man

Transcript

NFL Week 3 BEST BETS | Secret Bagent Man · Toadstool Sports

• 0:17
  Speaker 1: You got a slip in your palm and a hole
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: in your.
• 0:20
  Speaker 2: Chest Black coffee on the felt, man.
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: You look like a mess Three-team parlay turned to dust
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: in your head Now you stare at the chips like
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: they made you this man But don't you go quiet,
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: don't you fade from the floor Your name still means
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: something to somebody for sure Put the glass down, baby.
• 0:45
  Speaker 3: Look at me now Hold on.
• 0:52
  Speaker 4: Hold on, not tonight, not now. Hold on, hold on,
• 1:02
  Speaker 4: let me pull you out. That fella fights hard, but
• 1:11
  Speaker 4: he don't get the crown. Hold on, hold on.
• 1:18
  Speaker 2: Stay with me now. What's up, everybody? It's Toad back
• 1:29
  Speaker 2: with you.
• 1:30
  Speaker 5: Toadstool Sports NFL Week 3 edition coming in.
• 1:34
  Speaker 2: Hot, man.
• 1:36
  Speaker 5: I said I was going to have two or four
• 1:37
  Speaker 5: plays today, but I think I'm going to actually decide
• 1:39
  Speaker 5: on three. And I'll tell you what my other strong
• 1:43
  Speaker 5: lean is as well. And it better be the right ones, man.
• 1:45
  Speaker 5: We better at least, if we go two and one,
• 1:47
  Speaker 5: I'll be happy.
• 1:48
  Speaker 2: So let's do it. Let's get that done.
• 1:50
  Speaker 5: I think we have some good spots, some overinflated lines
• 1:56
  Speaker 5: here that we get to take advantage of.
• 1:58
  Speaker 2: I say we do it. We get this rolling.
• 2:01
  Speaker 5: Week three, what I'm going to say right out of
• 2:03
  Speaker 5: the gate, kind of like what I said with week two,
• 2:05
  Speaker 5: where in week two, playing 0-1 teams against 1-0 teams
• 2:09
  Speaker 5: is good. Week three, playing 0-2 teams, especially teams that
• 2:13
  Speaker 5: have not covered the spread in either of their two games, money.
• 2:17
  Speaker 2: It is money, like long-term. The lines are over-adjusted.
• 2:21
  Speaker 5: Everybody's overreacting to still a small sample size, two weeks' worth.
• 2:25
  Speaker 2: And it's even better because.
• 2:26
  Speaker 5: Teams that are 0-2 straight up, they are heavily motivated
• 2:31
  Speaker 5: to win because teams that start out 0-3, they're like
• 2:34
  Speaker 5: 13% probably or something like that to make the playoffs.
• 2:38
  Speaker 2: Although I know the Bengals did it... Was that... The Bengals,
• 2:42
  Speaker 2: I think, did it one of these years recently.
• 2:44
  Speaker 5: They started out 0-3 and they still made the playoffs.
• 2:46
  Speaker 5: Was that last year? No.
• 2:47
  Speaker 2: I forget when it was. One of these years, I
• 2:50
  Speaker 2: think they did it. But whatever. It's highly unlikely. So teams.
• 2:54
  Speaker 5: If you fall to an 0-3 record, it's basically a
• 2:57
  Speaker 5: death sentence.
• 2:58
  Speaker 2: So the 0-2 teams, I know I'm tipping my hand here.
• 3:02
  Speaker 2: You know what my players are going to be pretty much.
• 3:04
  Speaker 5: But 0-2 teams, yeah, they come heavily motivated and usually
• 3:08
  Speaker 5: get a lot of line value on these teams.
• 3:10
  Speaker 2: But it's not just that.
• 3:12
  Speaker 5: For me, these are going to be situational plays to
• 3:15
  Speaker 5: the extreme here. And we're getting the line value and
• 3:18
  Speaker 5: the motivation with teams like this.
• 3:20
  Speaker 2: So let's do this. Dirty Sock, what's up? Thanks for
• 3:24
  Speaker 2: hanging out.
• 3:25
  Speaker 5: Let's run through this board, man. The first game up,
• 3:28
  Speaker 5: this is a play for me. You know what this
• 3:30
  Speaker 5: is going to be. I think this is the best
• 3:32
  Speaker 5: play of the week. Nobody is going to want this
• 3:35
  Speaker 5: at all. Yeah, guess what we're doing with this one?
• 3:38
  Speaker 5: With Chargers at Buffalo? Yeah, you know what I'm doing
• 3:41
  Speaker 5: with this. Everybody's going to know what I'm doing with this. L.A.
• 3:44
  Speaker 5: Chargers all day, baby, plus the points. You might be
• 3:48
  Speaker 5: able to get a 7.5 on this. I'm not necessarily
• 3:51
  Speaker 5: going to say that maybe you should wait. I think
• 3:53
  Speaker 5: if you take a 7... That's good, too, but I'd
• 3:57
  Speaker 5: prefer the 7.5 if we could find it out there.
• 3:59
  Speaker 5: Right now, it's all 7s out there right now, though,
• 4:01
  Speaker 5: because I think maybe it hits 7.5 and the professionals
• 4:05
  Speaker 5: kind of just grab the 7.5.
• 4:07
  Speaker 2: You might still get a 7.5 on this, but the
• 4:09
  Speaker 2: good thing.
• 4:10
  Speaker 5: Is the public is going to be all over Buffalo here.
• 4:12
  Speaker 5: So that's going to hold the number up, so you
• 4:14
  Speaker 5: might still be able to get the 7.5 on this.
• 4:17
  Speaker 5: And if the number is sitting at 7 with the
• 4:19
  Speaker 5: public heavily on Buffalo, that also just tells you, The
• 4:23
  Speaker 5: fact that the books have not moved this up to
• 4:25
  Speaker 5: like eight and a half or really to nine to
• 4:28
  Speaker 5: try to kill teasers. Like go watch my last, my
• 4:30
  Speaker 5: show last week where I talked about how the books
• 4:32
  Speaker 5: kill the teasers and kind of how they signal, although
• 4:35
  Speaker 5: bad example because the Ravens didn't cover, but you know, um,
• 4:39
  Speaker 5: the fact that the, the good example was the Titans
• 4:42
  Speaker 5: on that's similar to this. The fact that the odds
• 4:45
  Speaker 5: makers are okay leaving this thing at seven, seven, knowing
• 4:49
  Speaker 5: that Buffalo is going to be a popular teaser and,
• 4:51
  Speaker 5: amongst the recreational bettors. They're going to be teasing the
• 4:55
  Speaker 5: bills down to just win the game, man. You know
• 4:57
  Speaker 5: that's what they're going to be doing. And the books
• 4:59
  Speaker 5: are okay with that. So they're basically telling you they
• 5:02
  Speaker 5: think there's a decent shot that the Chargers win this
• 5:04
  Speaker 5: game outright.
• 5:06
  Speaker 2: And I agree.
• 5:08
  Speaker 5: As bad as it looks so far, and I know
• 5:09
  Speaker 5: they have offensive line injuries, I know they have wide
• 5:12
  Speaker 5: receiver injuries, McConkie, whatever.
• 5:14
  Speaker 2: I know everybody's trashing this team.
• 5:16
  Speaker 5: I know Mike McDaniel, everybody's bashing this guy, and he
• 5:20
  Speaker 5: was a shit head coach.
• 5:22
  Speaker 2: I still don't think.
• 5:23
  Speaker 5: He's a bad offensive coordinator, though, because we've seen him
• 5:26
  Speaker 5: be good at that in the past. And the good
• 5:28
  Speaker 5: thing about McDaniel is, guess what? When he was the
• 5:30
  Speaker 5: head coach with Miami, he faced Buffalo two times a year,
• 5:34
  Speaker 5: and he gave Buffalo some problems.
• 5:36
  Speaker 2: Although a lot of that.
• 5:37
  Speaker 5: Was in the games in Miami, but still, Mike McDaniel,
• 5:41
  Speaker 5: he knows this Buffalo team.
• 5:43
  Speaker 2: He knows their tendencies.
• 5:44
  Speaker 5: I know they have Brady as their coach now, not McDermott,
• 5:47
  Speaker 5: but I think Brady was an internal... higher they moved
• 5:50
  Speaker 5: him up i think to head coach so buffalo's basically
• 5:53
  Speaker 5: still running the same system there so mcdaniel is familiar
• 5:57
  Speaker 5: with it so i think he's going to know how
• 5:58
  Speaker 5: to attack it i think you're going to see a
• 6:00
  Speaker 5: little bit better out of the uh charges offense here
• 6:02
  Speaker 5: but it gets way better than that i mean the
• 6:05
  Speaker 5: seven is a ridiculously high number as well which maybe
• 6:08
  Speaker 5: i should pull up the look ahead lines again hang
• 6:10
  Speaker 5: on um you like last week i i talked about
• 6:14
  Speaker 5: the look ahead lines you can see how uh The
• 6:17
  Speaker 5: lines have overreacted.
• 6:19
  Speaker 2: Let me see if I can find them here.
• 6:21
  Speaker 5: I'm trying to find these real quick. Yeah, usually on
• 6:26
  Speaker 5: 4 for 4, I think usually is good, but their
• 6:28
  Speaker 5: table format is all fucked up right now. Although I
• 6:32
  Speaker 5: think I can still read that, but I think I
• 6:33
  Speaker 5: must have used a different site last week when I
• 6:35
  Speaker 5: did this. I don't know if I can find it
• 6:39
  Speaker 5: right now, man, but whatever. I'm not going to waste
• 6:41
  Speaker 5: time on that, but anyway. I can almost guarantee you
• 6:44
  Speaker 5: the look ahead line on this game was lower than seven.
• 6:47
  Speaker 5: It was probably about five and a half, Buffalo being
• 6:49
  Speaker 5: the favorite. And now we're looking at this key number seven.
• 6:52
  Speaker 5: You're probably, I would think you're going to get seven
• 6:54
  Speaker 5: and a half on this tomorrow, but we'll see. But Buffalo, yes,
• 6:59
  Speaker 5: they have extra time off. But I mean, look at
• 7:00
  Speaker 5: what they're coming off of, man. They're coming off two
• 7:02
  Speaker 5: big wins. They beat Houston in a very dramatic finish
• 7:06
  Speaker 5: in the first game. Against a physical Texans defense too.
• 7:11
  Speaker 5: Buffalo's offense looked awesome in that game. 36 points. They
• 7:14
  Speaker 5: looked really good on Thursday night as well. And everybody
• 7:17
  Speaker 5: saw that game. Isolated game. They beat the Lions. Scored
• 7:20
  Speaker 5: 41 points. Big win on an isolated Thursday game. In
• 7:24
  Speaker 5: their first regular season game.
• 7:26
  Speaker 2: In their new stadium. In Oh Highmark Stadium.
• 7:30
  Speaker 5: I think it's a huge let down spot for Buffalo
• 7:32
  Speaker 5: after that. And it's a sandwich spot. Because look at
• 7:35
  Speaker 5: who they have next. Yeah, they have to play the
• 7:38
  Speaker 5: New England Patriots next. And the Patriots are the only
• 7:41
  Speaker 5: threat to them in this division here. And the Patriots
• 7:43
  Speaker 5: won the division last year. So you know Buffalo's got
• 7:47
  Speaker 5: their eye looking ahead to that game. That's a huge
• 7:49
  Speaker 5: game for them. This is a sandwich spot. I think
• 7:51
  Speaker 5: the extra time off might actually hurt them because they
• 7:54
  Speaker 5: might be just sitting there basking and, oh, yeah, how
• 7:56
  Speaker 5: good do we look here? And now we get the
• 7:58
  Speaker 5: shitty Chargers coming in.
• 8:00
  Speaker 2: This is going to be easy.
• 8:01
  Speaker 5: I think that's what everybody's thinking. That's what Buffalo's going
• 8:04
  Speaker 5: to be thinking. Chargers are in total desperation mode. 0-2
• 8:07
  Speaker 5: to start the season. They lost both games at home
• 8:10
  Speaker 5: as big favorites. They were supposed to win both games
• 8:13
  Speaker 5: against the Cardinals and the Raiders. I think, you know
• 8:19
  Speaker 5: what I said, even though I liked the Chargers last week,
• 8:22
  Speaker 5: I like them again for the same reason here. I
• 8:24
  Speaker 5: like a team coming off losing as a big favorite
• 8:27
  Speaker 5: because I think it shocks them back into focus. And while, yeah,
• 8:30
  Speaker 5: that angle didn't work last week, you know, Raiders were
• 8:33
  Speaker 5: a divisional opponent that gets up for a game like that.
• 8:36
  Speaker 5: The Bills are much more likely to overlook the Chargers
• 8:40
  Speaker 5: than the Raiders were last week, right? Because the Raiders
• 8:43
  Speaker 5: have been the bottom dweller in this division.
• 8:45
  Speaker 2: For so long.
• 8:47
  Speaker 5: And I think it's going to be good that the
• 8:48
  Speaker 5: Chargers go out on the road. I mean, yeah, I
• 8:50
  Speaker 5: know it's a West Coast team playing in early start time,
• 8:52
  Speaker 5: so it's going to be 10 a.m.
• 8:54
  Speaker 2: Their time.
• 8:54
  Speaker 5: But I told you, I think that's a little bit
• 8:56
  Speaker 5: of an overrated thing. I don't think West Coast teams
• 8:59
  Speaker 5: do that badly playing morning games on their biological clock. Because, again,
• 9:04
  Speaker 5: I think you have your energy in the morning. I
• 9:06
  Speaker 5: think it's worse for it. an East Coast team going
• 9:08
  Speaker 5: west for a late-night game. I'm not worried about that.
• 9:11
  Speaker 5: In fact, as I was about to say, the Chargers
• 9:13
  Speaker 5: leaving home I think is a good thing because now
• 9:16
  Speaker 5: they don't have to listen to the media at home.
• 9:18
  Speaker 5: They don't have to listen to the media talking about
• 9:20
  Speaker 5: how the Rams are the only team in L.A. and
• 9:23
  Speaker 5: whatever and the Chargers don't exist and whatever. Going out
• 9:27
  Speaker 5: on the road, it alleviates the distractions. They're not going
• 9:30
  Speaker 5: to overlook this game at all. We're getting points here.
• 9:33
  Speaker 5: We don't need them to win. We just need them
• 9:35
  Speaker 5: to cover here. Although I think if they do cover,
• 9:37
  Speaker 5: there's going to be a decent shot they win this game.
• 9:40
  Speaker 2: Don't be shocked. Yes, it is a high total, 50,
• 9:43
  Speaker 2: 50 and a half here.
• 9:44
  Speaker 5: I don't love playing underdogs when it's a high total,
• 9:47
  Speaker 5: but this is just a spot where I think it
• 9:49
  Speaker 5: has to be done. 81% of the tickets are on Buffalo,
• 9:52
  Speaker 5: 73% of the cash on them. So the money seems
• 9:55
  Speaker 5: to be indicating towards the Chargers here. That is what
• 9:58
  Speaker 5: we're going to do. Get at least seven on this.
• 10:00
  Speaker 5: I think you might be able to find a seven
• 10:02
  Speaker 5: and a half again once the public comes in again
• 10:04
  Speaker 5: on game day. Chargers plus the points. This is what
• 10:08
  Speaker 5: I do, man. When it's a play that absolutely nobody's
• 10:12
  Speaker 5: going to want, that's what you want to bet, and
• 10:14
  Speaker 5: that's the Chargers.
• 10:15
  Speaker 2: There you go. Good situation for it. All right.
• 10:20
  Speaker 5: Next game, Carolina and Cleveland. This game, I kind of
• 10:22
  Speaker 5: struggle to figure this game out. I can tell you
• 10:25
  Speaker 5: that the professional bettors that I've listened to have pretty
• 10:27
  Speaker 5: much all been leaning Cleveland in this game, and Carolina's
• 10:31
  Speaker 5: definitely a public side, and I see the argument for
• 10:34
  Speaker 5: fading Carolina. The problem is I see arguments for fading
• 10:37
  Speaker 5: Cleveland in this game, too.
• 10:39
  Speaker 2: Now, Carolina, they looked really good, though. I think they're
• 10:42
  Speaker 2: the team that's.
• 10:42
  Speaker 5: Looked like the better of the two. So the public
• 10:45
  Speaker 5: is definitely going to be on Carolina here. They're coming
• 10:47
  Speaker 5: off a high-scoring loss where they looked good in that
• 10:50
  Speaker 5: loss against the Bears. Then they smashed the Falcons last week,
• 10:54
  Speaker 5: a big divisional win for Carolina. And that win is
• 10:56
  Speaker 5: going to look even better now that we saw the
• 10:58
  Speaker 5: Falcons win on Thursday night.
• 11:00
  Speaker 2: But here's the thing.
• 11:01
  Speaker 5: That was Cooper Rush playing with the Falcons against Carolina.
• 11:04
  Speaker 5: That was not Pennix. And Falcons looked way better with
• 11:08
  Speaker 5: Pennix out there on Thursday. Um, so people are going
• 11:11
  Speaker 5: to overrate that win for Carolina. If you dig into
• 11:13
  Speaker 5: this box score, yeah, Carolina won the yardage battle, but
• 11:17
  Speaker 5: not by that much.
• 11:18
  Speaker 2: I mean, you see why they won this.
• 11:19
  Speaker 5: Game 34 to three. That was because they were plus
• 11:22
  Speaker 5: five in turnovers. Atlanta had five turnovers in the game.
• 11:26
  Speaker 5: You're never going to win an NFL game when you
• 11:28
  Speaker 5: have five turnovers, man, unless your opponent also has five
• 11:31
  Speaker 5: pretty much, you know? If you're minus five in turnovers,
• 11:35
  Speaker 5: you're going to lose every single time in the NFL.
• 11:38
  Speaker 2: So that was a misleading final.
• 11:39
  Speaker 5: Like, yeah, Carolina deserved to win the game, but not
• 11:41
  Speaker 5: by as much as it showed on the scoreboard. And
• 11:46
  Speaker 5: Carolina does play Detroit next, which is a big game
• 11:50
  Speaker 5: to some extent. And that's a night game, by the way.
• 11:52
  Speaker 5: That's Sunday night, I'm pretty sure. So that's a primetime game.
• 11:55
  Speaker 5: So that could definitely be a look ahead for Carolina
• 11:58
  Speaker 5: to that primetime game there. And what do I always say?
• 12:01
  Speaker 5: Road out of conference games, which is what this is
• 12:04
  Speaker 5: for Carolina. That's the game that means the least on
• 12:06
  Speaker 5: a team's schedule. Road out of conference. It's the lowest
• 12:12
  Speaker 5: in the tiebreaker totem pole at the end of the season.
• 12:15
  Speaker 5: It's the game that means the least. And it's going
• 12:18
  Speaker 5: to be a second straight road game for Carolina. So
• 12:21
  Speaker 5: that's not good either. And also the Browns are a
• 12:23
  Speaker 5: home underdog here, and they're the better defense at least.
• 12:27
  Speaker 5: So that's an angle that I like as well, getting
• 12:29
  Speaker 5: points with the better defense. So yeah, I just made
• 12:32
  Speaker 5: a pretty good case for fading Carolina. The problem is
• 12:35
  Speaker 5: Cleveland is also in a fade spot because they just
• 12:37
  Speaker 5: pulled off an upset against the Buccaneers. And I do
• 12:41
  Speaker 5: not like to play on teams when they pull off
• 12:42
  Speaker 5: a big upset like that. And the other problem for
• 12:45
  Speaker 5: Cleveland is look at their next game.
• 12:47
  Speaker 2: They host the Pittsburgh Steelers on Thursday night.
• 12:50
  Speaker 5: So they have a quick turnaround time to this big
• 12:53
  Speaker 5: divisional game against Pittsburgh coming up in four days. I
• 12:57
  Speaker 5: don't think that's a good spot for Cleveland here. Kind
• 13:00
  Speaker 5: of a sandwich spot for Cleveland, too. So there's an
• 13:03
  Speaker 5: argument to be made that both teams are in a
• 13:05
  Speaker 5: sandwich spot here. So the side is very difficult to
• 13:09
  Speaker 5: figure out in this game, in my opinion. Won't be
• 13:12
  Speaker 5: a play for me, obviously, but I will probably just
• 13:15
  Speaker 5: lean with the professionals on Cleveland here. We see 83%
• 13:18
  Speaker 5: of tickets, 94% of the cash on Carolina, though. But
• 13:22
  Speaker 5: to me, it looks like the money has kind of
• 13:24
  Speaker 5: come in towards Cleveland. And the way that you can
• 13:26
  Speaker 5: kind of tell, the oddsmakers are kind of signaling something
• 13:29
  Speaker 5: with the fact that this line was 2.5, and now it's.
• 13:32
  Speaker 2: Still at 2.5, 2, or even 1.5 now.
• 13:36
  Speaker 5: Even though the public is all on the Carolina side,
• 13:38
  Speaker 5: the fact that that line has not moved up to
• 13:41
  Speaker 5: that key number 3, and in fact, it's gone down
• 13:43
  Speaker 5: a little bit, that is kind of telling you there
• 13:45
  Speaker 5: is some money that's holding that thing down. some money
• 13:48
  Speaker 5: coming in on the Cleveland side somehow that's holding that
• 13:50
  Speaker 5: thing down, and or the oddsmakers just don't care. The
• 13:55
  Speaker 5: oddsmakers could be taking a stand here, saying we're not
• 13:58
  Speaker 5: going to give you the three on Cleveland here, which
• 14:00
  Speaker 5: is kind of an indicator that they're thinking Cleveland does
• 14:03
  Speaker 5: have a decent shot in this game, and it is
• 14:05
  Speaker 5: a pretty low total in the low 40s, expected to
• 14:08
  Speaker 5: be an ugly, ugly game here. And I don't expect
• 14:11
  Speaker 5: Carolina's offense to do nearly as well in this game
• 14:13
  Speaker 5: as they've looked the last couple of games. As long
• 14:16
  Speaker 5: as Cleveland's not going to turn it over five times,
• 14:19
  Speaker 5: but we'll see. The Cleveland fan base seems like they
• 14:23
  Speaker 5: don't like Deshaun Watson, but... Are they really going to
• 14:26
  Speaker 5: boo Watson after he just played really well and got
• 14:29
  Speaker 5: his team a win last week on the road at
• 14:31
  Speaker 5: Tampa Bay? If Cleveland's fan base boos him coming into
• 14:35
  Speaker 5: the stadium after that, that's some fucking bullshit, man.
• 14:38
  Speaker 2: They should not do that.
• 14:39
  Speaker 5: But yeah, I'll lean to Cleveland plus the points in
• 14:41
  Speaker 5: that one, but I hate the spot for both teams.
• 14:43
  Speaker 5: A lot of times when I hate the spot, sometimes
• 14:46
  Speaker 5: it does kind of mean the over is the better
• 14:48
  Speaker 5: way to look. The money is slightly tilted towards the
• 14:51
  Speaker 5: over in that game. And the thought is, I don't
• 14:54
  Speaker 5: really do much with totals, but the thought would be
• 14:56
  Speaker 5: that if it's kind of a non-focused spot for both teams,
• 14:59
  Speaker 5: sometimes it means the defense is lacking a little bit,
• 15:03
  Speaker 5: and maybe the game winds up with a few more
• 15:05
  Speaker 5: points there. But I don't want to do anything with
• 15:07
  Speaker 5: that shit. You're betting the Chargers?
• 15:11
  Speaker 2: All right. Mr. Pinsey, what's up?
• 15:14
  Speaker 5: They're called the Redskins, sir. I will not call them
• 15:18
  Speaker 5: by their fake bullshit name. You'll have to wait and
• 15:22
  Speaker 5: see until I get to that game. Jets and Detroit,
• 15:26
  Speaker 5: I have some issues with trying to figure out the side.
• 15:29
  Speaker 5: This is one of the hardest games to figure out
• 15:31
  Speaker 5: for me, actually, because Detroit, they're going to be a
• 15:35
  Speaker 5: public favor here, but to me it seems like the
• 15:37
  Speaker 5: spot kind of favors Detroit here. They're sitting at 1-1
• 15:40
  Speaker 5: right now. They beat the Saints, who actually look like
• 15:43
  Speaker 5: a pretty solid team right now. So that win by
• 15:48
  Speaker 5: only one isn't looking as bad right now. And then
• 15:50
  Speaker 5: Detroit lost at Buffalo. I mean, Buffalo's a good team.
• 15:53
  Speaker 2: We all know that.
• 15:54
  Speaker 5: Now Detroit has extra time off coming off the Thursday
• 15:57
  Speaker 5: night game.
• 15:59
  Speaker 2: Detroit's back at home here. Will they overlook the Jets?
• 16:03
  Speaker 2: I don't know.
• 16:03
  Speaker 5: I mean, I know I said Detroit has that Sunday
• 16:05
  Speaker 5: night game coming up, but it's only against the Panthers.
• 16:08
  Speaker 2: And I don't think the Panthers are very good, man,
• 16:10
  Speaker 2: to be honest.
• 16:11
  Speaker 5: So I will say that as well as far as
• 16:13
  Speaker 5: maybe leaning to the Browns in that one. But for Detroit,
• 16:18
  Speaker 5: I know, you know, there's this thing right here. Dan
• 16:20
  Speaker 5: Campbell and Aaron Glenn have this thing because I think
• 16:22
  Speaker 5: Glenn was on his coaching staff, I'm pretty sure. So
• 16:25
  Speaker 5: I think, you know, they're kind of friends. So Campbell
• 16:27
  Speaker 5: might not want to really, like, embarrass him in this game.
• 16:30
  Speaker 5: But Detroit might be able to cover this one, man.
• 16:33
  Speaker 5: I don't really like the spot for the Jets. I
• 16:36
  Speaker 5: got the game wrong last week, though, with the Jets-Packers game.
• 16:39
  Speaker 5: Packers really struggled in that game, but the Jets, that
• 16:42
  Speaker 5: was a big game for the Jets. They played pretty
• 16:44
  Speaker 5: well at home against the Packers, took the Packers into OT.
• 16:48
  Speaker 5: Now they got to swing back out on the road
• 16:50
  Speaker 5: and play a road out of conference game, by the way,
• 16:52
  Speaker 5: even though it is against a good team, the Lions.
• 16:56
  Speaker 5: I just don't really see that much of an angle
• 16:58
  Speaker 5: for wanting to really play the Jets here, man. Detroit
• 17:01
  Speaker 5: looks like they might actually be getting the money. 72%
• 17:03
  Speaker 5: of tickets, 86% of the cash on them. I worry
• 17:07
  Speaker 5: about it, though, because the number's sitting at 6.5, and
• 17:09
  Speaker 5: the oddsmakers haven't moved it. And what did I just say?
• 17:12
  Speaker 5: That when you have an obvious public side like this,
• 17:15
  Speaker 5: like with Detroit, and the number is sitting there below
• 17:18
  Speaker 5: its touchdown, it just looks way too easy to play Detroit.
• 17:22
  Speaker 2: I don't want to do it.
• 17:23
  Speaker 5: It's definitely not going to be on my card, but
• 17:25
  Speaker 5: I think given the situation, I might have to slightly
• 17:28
  Speaker 5: lean towards Detroit in this one and hope that the
• 17:31
  Speaker 5: old Dan Campbell kind of comes back because I believe
• 17:35
  Speaker 5: he is known for being kind of a covering machine
• 17:38
  Speaker 5: at home, and at least it's kind of a high total,
• 17:41
  Speaker 5: so if you want to lay the points there, more
• 17:44
  Speaker 5: points are expected in that game, so at least there
• 17:46
  Speaker 5: is that. That's one of the games I like the
• 17:49
  Speaker 5: absolute least on the schedule here, though.
• 17:52
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm going to edge you. Maybe you'll learn something
• 17:55
  Speaker 2: as we go.
• 17:56
  Speaker 5: This next game up, this is the game that I
• 17:58
  Speaker 5: almost put on my card that I'm not going to
• 18:00
  Speaker 5: quite do it.
• 18:01
  Speaker 2: Houston and Indy, 2-0 in two teams.
• 18:04
  Speaker 5: But the oddsmakers are telling you who the better team
• 18:06
  Speaker 5: is because Houston's favored on the road here. They also
• 18:09
  Speaker 5: are getting the money, 55% of tickets, 68% of the
• 18:12
  Speaker 5: cash on Houston. Houston's minus one and a half right now.
• 18:16
  Speaker 5: I agree with that. Houston, I think, is the right
• 18:18
  Speaker 5: side in this game. They're the better team, they're the
• 18:21
  Speaker 5: better defense, and Houston's off to an 0-2 start. Yes,
• 18:25
  Speaker 5: both teams are, but when it comes down to it,
• 18:29
  Speaker 5: I think the better team's going to win out here,
• 18:30
  Speaker 5: even though both teams are going to be motivated. Yes,
• 18:32
  Speaker 5: it is a divisional game, which does worry me a
• 18:35
  Speaker 5: little bit about wanting to actually put this on my card,
• 18:37
  Speaker 5: because you're going to get motivation from.
• 18:38
  Speaker 2: Both teams, but.
• 18:40
  Speaker 5: Houston had a real ugly game last week, man. They
• 18:43
  Speaker 5: were coming off that big game against the Bills, so
• 18:45
  Speaker 5: I did not like Houston last week against the Bengals.
• 18:48
  Speaker 5: And Houston fucked up, and they lost the game. Although,
• 18:51
  Speaker 5: if you look at what happened in this game... Houston
• 18:53
  Speaker 5: should have won. Houston dominated this game yardage-wise. So I
• 18:57
  Speaker 5: really wasn't correct about Cincinnati, even though I got the
• 19:00
  Speaker 5: pick right in my pick-em pools and whatever. I got
• 19:03
  Speaker 5: lucky with that because Houston won the yardage battle by
• 19:06
  Speaker 5: over 100 yards. They dominated the first downs battle. Both
• 19:09
  Speaker 5: teams had a shitload of penalties. Cincinnati did win the
• 19:13
  Speaker 5: possession battle slightly. But, I mean, Houston just fell in
• 19:16
  Speaker 5: an early hole, and they couldn't get out of it, man.
• 19:18
  Speaker 5: But I think after a game like that, Houston's going
• 19:20
  Speaker 5: to be in a bounce back mode, uh, an ugly
• 19:22
  Speaker 5: loss at home.
• 19:23
  Speaker 2: It might be better for them to just go out
• 19:24
  Speaker 2: on the road, right?
• 19:25
  Speaker 5: Like I said, with the chargers Houston, they're in kind
• 19:28
  Speaker 5: of a big market there and probably they're having to
• 19:30
  Speaker 5: listen to the media talking about how.
• 19:31
  Speaker 2: Bad they are at Owen too.
• 19:33
  Speaker 5: One of the best things for you after that, if
• 19:35
  Speaker 5: you lose two games at home like that, one of
• 19:37
  Speaker 5: the best things is just fuck that go out.
• 19:39
  Speaker 2: On the road. Then you don't have to listen to
• 19:40
  Speaker 2: the media. You get to actually just focus.
• 19:43
  Speaker 5: You have fewer distractions when you're on the road. You
• 19:45
  Speaker 5: can just focus on football. So I like that for Houston. Um, Yeah,
• 19:50
  Speaker 5: I think it's a much better spot for them. And
• 19:51
  Speaker 5: they're coming off a misleading result, right? So Houston should
• 19:54
  Speaker 5: have won that game statistically. So that's another thing in
• 19:57
  Speaker 5: favor of Houston here. And it does get better than
• 19:59
  Speaker 5: that because Indianapolis is in a bad spot. As we saw,
• 20:03
  Speaker 5: I gave out Indianapolis as one of my plays last week.
• 20:06
  Speaker 5: And they covered and they almost won the game. They
• 20:08
  Speaker 5: took Kansas City down. in Arrowhead into overtime, and I
• 20:11
  Speaker 5: talked about how Indy seems to always play the Chiefs tough.
• 20:14
  Speaker 2: I don't know why.
• 20:14
  Speaker 5: I don't know what it is, but they did that,
• 20:16
  Speaker 5: and now, by the way, Pierce is on the IR,
• 20:19
  Speaker 5: so Indy's down one of their wide receivers here. I
• 20:23
  Speaker 5: just don't think this is a good spot for Indy, though, man.
• 20:25
  Speaker 5: I know it's a big game for them. They need
• 20:27
  Speaker 5: to win because they're 0-2. It's at home against a
• 20:29
  Speaker 5: divisional foe, so I don't quite want to do this,
• 20:31
  Speaker 5: but they have a short turnaround time because they played
• 20:34
  Speaker 5: Sunday night. So Texans are going to be more rested
• 20:37
  Speaker 5: here in Indianapolis. Again, they played into overtime in a
• 20:40
  Speaker 5: really tough game, really tough environment, almost pulled off the
• 20:43
  Speaker 5: upset there. This is a bad spot for Indy. So
• 20:47
  Speaker 5: Houston is the right side in this game as far
• 20:49
  Speaker 5: as I'm concerned. This is the next game. This is
• 20:53
  Speaker 5: the first game I'm leaving off my card. I almost
• 20:55
  Speaker 5: wanted to put it on my card. I went through
• 20:58
  Speaker 5: everything just a little while ago, and I decided to
• 21:01
  Speaker 5: not do it. I'm going to be pissed when Houston
• 21:03
  Speaker 5: winds up winning the game, though. I would either lay
• 21:06
  Speaker 5: the one and a half or maybe even play the
• 21:07
  Speaker 5: money line if you can find a money line on
• 21:09
  Speaker 5: this that's better. But yeah, I think Houston is definitely
• 21:12
  Speaker 5: the right side in that one. Definitely a strong opinion
• 21:15
  Speaker 5: for me on that. Next game up, I feel pretty
• 21:18
  Speaker 5: strongly about this one too. Kansas City and Miami. Kansas City,
• 21:22
  Speaker 5: as I just mentioned, they're coming off a big night game.
• 21:25
  Speaker 5: They're coming off two big wins to start the season.
• 21:27
  Speaker 5: They crushed the Broncos. Huge win for them in the
• 21:30
  Speaker 5: game one, week one. That's why I wanted to fade
• 21:33
  Speaker 5: them in week two though. because they were coming off
• 21:35
  Speaker 5: that big win, so I thought they wouldn't have as
• 21:37
  Speaker 5: good of an effort against the Colts. And they didn't,
• 21:41
  Speaker 5: and yes, I know Kansas City does qualify as a
• 21:43
  Speaker 5: favorite that didn't cover, so they kind of got a
• 21:45
  Speaker 5: scare in that game. I'm not buying that as far
• 21:49
  Speaker 5: as handicapping this.
• 21:50
  Speaker 2: Game, though.
• 21:51
  Speaker 5: This is going to be their first true road game,
• 21:53
  Speaker 5: and while, yes, I know I said that that's actually
• 21:56
  Speaker 5: possibly a positive thing, For teams that are 0-2, I
• 21:59
  Speaker 5: don't really think it's a positive for teams that are 2-0.
• 22:01
  Speaker 5: I think going out on the road for the first
• 22:04
  Speaker 5: time when things have been working at home, I don't
• 22:07
  Speaker 5: necessarily think that's a good thing. I think Kansas City
• 22:09
  Speaker 5: might just overlook Miami, man, because Miami's looking like the
• 22:11
  Speaker 5: worst team in the entire NFL. Kansas City coming off
• 22:17
  Speaker 5: of two straight primetime games. That's not a good spot
• 22:20
  Speaker 5: to be in, coming off two massive games like this.
• 22:22
  Speaker 5: And they might actually look ahead to the Raiders because
• 22:25
  Speaker 5: the Raiders are a divisional team. The Raiders are 2-0
• 22:28
  Speaker 5: right now. The Raiders are the only team that's tied
• 22:31
  Speaker 5: with Kansas City in this division right now. Even though
• 22:34
  Speaker 5: it's the Raiders, I know, but it might actually be
• 22:37
  Speaker 5: a look ahead for Kansas City. That game is more
• 22:39
  Speaker 5: meaningful than this game against Miami is. I think Kansas
• 22:42
  Speaker 5: City might think they can just get in, get out here.
• 22:45
  Speaker 5: You know, even though the Colts win isn't that great
• 22:47
  Speaker 5: and they didn't look that good in that game, still
• 22:50
  Speaker 5: won in primetime in overtime. So they have less time
• 22:53
  Speaker 5: to turn around and do this. Nobody's going to want
• 22:55
  Speaker 5: the Dolphins here, man. But you're getting 10, 10 and
• 22:58
  Speaker 5: a half with the Dolphins now here, man. And the Dolphins, yeah,
• 23:03
  Speaker 5: they spent the first two games out on the West Coast.
• 23:05
  Speaker 5: They have not even been in the Eastern time zone
• 23:07
  Speaker 5: since then. But like I said, I'm not as worried
• 23:10
  Speaker 5: about teams going from West to East as I am
• 23:14
  Speaker 5: about teams going from East to West. So I'm not
• 23:17
  Speaker 5: too worried about that. Miami's looked pretty bad in the
• 23:19
  Speaker 5: first two games.
• 23:20
  Speaker 2: This will be their home opener. You know, they'll at
• 23:22
  Speaker 2: least give you some effort. against the Chiefs.
• 23:25
  Speaker 5: Nobody's going to want them because, again, they.
• 23:27
  Speaker 2: Look like the worst team in the NFL, but they
• 23:30
  Speaker 2: don't need to win this game.
• 23:31
  Speaker 5: You're talking about a 10.5-point spread, and the total's not
• 23:34
  Speaker 5: that high in the 40s. I still think Kansas City's
• 23:36
  Speaker 5: a little bit more of a defensive team than an
• 23:38
  Speaker 5: offensive team.
• 23:39
  Speaker 2: And you know now that Kansas City has.
• 23:42
  Speaker 5: Kenneth Walker there, you know they could just kind of
• 23:45
  Speaker 5: sit on a lead there, and they're going to be
• 23:47
  Speaker 5: running the football a bit in this game, you would
• 23:49
  Speaker 5: have to imagine. And Miami, they have to run the
• 23:52
  Speaker 5: football too because their best offensive weapon is A-chan, although
• 23:56
  Speaker 5: I guess people are saying it's pronounced A-tien now. I'm like,
• 23:59
  Speaker 5: what the fuck is going on? You're going to confuse
• 24:01
  Speaker 5: me because you already have two A-tien's in the NFL,
• 24:04
  Speaker 5: and now A-chan is supposed to be pronounced that way?
• 24:07
  Speaker 2: Give me a break, man.
• 24:08
  Speaker 5: I think maybe HN's ancestors like going through Ellis Island
• 24:12
  Speaker 5: or so. I don't know how they got here, but
• 24:13
  Speaker 5: I don't know if that's what happened or not, but
• 24:15
  Speaker 5: it feels like it was like an Ellis Island situation where,
• 24:17
  Speaker 5: you know, they were speaking French or something. Maybe they
• 24:19
  Speaker 5: were coming in from, is he Haitian? I have no
• 24:21
  Speaker 5: idea coming in from some French speaking country, you know?
• 24:25
  Speaker 2: Oh yes. My name is H HN. And they're like, Oh, HN.
• 24:28
  Speaker 2: Is that what you said? Yeah, here it is. HN, whatever, man.
• 24:32
  Speaker 5: Um, Miami is the right side in this game as
• 24:34
  Speaker 5: far as I can tell you. Kansas City's public, 84%
• 24:37
  Speaker 5: of tickets, 83% of the cash on them. I think
• 24:40
  Speaker 5: the look ahead in this game, as you can kind
• 24:42
  Speaker 5: of see when I was looking at the ESPN widget
• 24:47
  Speaker 5: there that I had up a little while ago. The
• 24:50
  Speaker 5: look ahead, I think was like seven on this game
• 24:53
  Speaker 5: and last week's results happened.
• 24:54
  Speaker 2: And now it's 10, 10 and a half. Why? Because,
• 24:58
  Speaker 2: because Miami lost to San Francisco. I mean, okay.
• 25:01
  Speaker 3: Yes.
• 25:02
  Speaker 5: I know that was my one loser on the show
• 25:04
  Speaker 5: last week, but actually look at the box score in
• 25:06
  Speaker 5: that game, man. This game was not what it looked
• 25:09
  Speaker 5: like on the scoreboard.
• 25:10
  Speaker 2: Look at this. Miami got out gained.
• 25:12
  Speaker 5: Yeah.
• 25:13
  Speaker 2: By a hundred yards. Okay. But you know, I mean,
• 25:15
  Speaker 2: that's still not really indicative of a 35 to 13 loss.
• 25:17
  Speaker 5: Really. It's, It's more indicative of, I don't know, maybe
• 25:21
  Speaker 5: about a 10-point loss, so whatever. Miami won the possession
• 25:25
  Speaker 5: battle in the game, so there was that. I don't
• 25:28
  Speaker 5: think the game was as bad as maybe it looked
• 25:30
  Speaker 5: on the scoreboard, at least. Yeah, it's not a play
• 25:34
  Speaker 5: for me, but that one, you know. I feel more
• 25:37
  Speaker 5: strongly about that one than about a lot of different ones.
• 25:39
  Speaker 5: Cause Kansas city, I think you could make the argument.
• 25:41
  Speaker 5: They're kind of in a sandwich there. So I am
• 25:44
  Speaker 5: looking for a fifth game to put on my pick five.
• 25:47
  Speaker 5: Cause I did not do it with Atlanta, which I'm
• 25:49
  Speaker 5: kind of pissed about.
• 25:50
  Speaker 2: I kind of considered it, but, um, yeah. Well, fuck you.
• 25:57
  Speaker 2: Why would you fade my dog picks? Um, Yeah, fuck off.
• 26:01
  Speaker 5: Fuck all of that. The South Alabama loss was complete
• 26:04
  Speaker 5: fucking bullshit. If you faded that, there's no fucking way
• 26:07
  Speaker 5: you should have won that, and you're a fucking idiot,
• 26:09
  Speaker 5: and I fucking hate you, and you should fuck off,
• 26:12
  Speaker 5: and you're fucking disrespecting my shit right now.
• 26:15
  Speaker 2: Fuck you. Fuck the Yankees, too. How about that? Eat
• 26:18
  Speaker 2: my ass, bitch. All right. You know I'm just playing,
• 26:24
  Speaker 2: but not really. All right.
• 26:27
  Speaker 5: Tennessee and New York Giants... this game, it does fall
• 26:31
  Speaker 5: into one of the categories that I look for where
• 26:33
  Speaker 5: it is going to be an injured player theory spot
• 26:35
  Speaker 5: for the giants. They lost Jackson dart early in the
• 26:38
  Speaker 5: game last week. I gave you guys the Rams as
• 26:40
  Speaker 5: a winner on the show. Um, You know, so that
• 26:44
  Speaker 5: was a winner. I think it would have been a
• 26:45
  Speaker 5: winner anyway, even if Dart did not go down, but
• 26:48
  Speaker 5: he did, and Jameis Winston looked terrible. So now what
• 26:51
  Speaker 5: you're getting is a Giants team off a primetime game
• 26:54
  Speaker 5: that everybody watched, even though I know it's going to
• 26:56
  Speaker 5: be a short turnaround time here. Everybody saw how bad
• 26:59
  Speaker 5: they looked, so I don't think anybody's really going to
• 27:00
  Speaker 5: want the Giants in this one here. Yeah, they're traveling
• 27:03
  Speaker 5: back east, but again, traveling back east is not as
• 27:06
  Speaker 5: bad as traveling out west.
• 27:08
  Speaker 2: Injured player theory spot, what do I always say about that?
• 27:11
  Speaker 2: I say.
• 27:12
  Speaker 5: that you get value on the team in the injured
• 27:14
  Speaker 5: player theory spot. What happens is the team usually steps
• 27:17
  Speaker 5: up their level of play. Winston is going to have
• 27:20
  Speaker 5: some time over the week to, you know, learn the system.
• 27:23
  Speaker 5: He already knows the system, but, you know, the offense
• 27:27
  Speaker 5: in that game was designed for Dart.
• 27:28
  Speaker 2: You know what I mean?
• 27:29
  Speaker 5: Because they thought Dart was going to be the QB
• 27:31
  Speaker 5: in that game, obviously. So it was an offense designed
• 27:33
  Speaker 5: for Dart, not for Winston. So I think what you're
• 27:35
  Speaker 5: going to get here now, injured player theory spot, this
• 27:38
  Speaker 5: is why it works.
• 27:38
  Speaker 2: There are a few different reasons why.
• 27:40
  Speaker 5: Number one is the line's going to overreact to the injury.
• 27:43
  Speaker 5: And by the way, the Giants are still favored in
• 27:45
  Speaker 5: this game. So that tells you that with Dart, they
• 27:48
  Speaker 5: would have been favored by probably like three more points
• 27:50
  Speaker 5: than they are here. So you're going to get some
• 27:52
  Speaker 5: value on the Giants because of that. It's an overreaction
• 27:56
  Speaker 5: to the injury. Number two, the team's going to rally
• 28:00
  Speaker 5: most likely because they know they have to put in
• 28:01
  Speaker 5: a big effort that first game at the very least
• 28:05
  Speaker 5: without that QB. Sometimes if they do get that big
• 28:07
  Speaker 5: effort and they do win, sometimes they'll get a little
• 28:09
  Speaker 5: bit complacent. in the next game, so the injured player
• 28:11
  Speaker 5: theory basically only works in one game, and this is
• 28:14
  Speaker 5: the game where it should work if it's going to work.
• 28:18
  Speaker 5: So you get the bigger effort, the better line, line value,
• 28:22
  Speaker 5: and number three, what I just said is that The
• 28:25
  Speaker 5: playbook is going to be designed for the quarterback this time,
• 28:27
  Speaker 5: for Winston and not for Dart this time. So I
• 28:31
  Speaker 5: like the Giants in this one. Tennessee is also coming
• 28:33
  Speaker 5: off a.
• 28:34
  Speaker 2: Big effort, man.
• 28:35
  Speaker 5: They fell just short against the Eagles. They almost pulled
• 28:37
  Speaker 5: out that big upset against the Eagles. This is going
• 28:40
  Speaker 5: to be their first road game. And yes, I know
• 28:41
  Speaker 5: they're an 0-2 team, so I don't really want to
• 28:44
  Speaker 5: fade the 0-2 team here because they're going to be
• 28:47
  Speaker 5: in desperation mode.
• 28:49
  Speaker 2: But what do I say?
• 28:50
  Speaker 5: When a team is a big underdog and they almost
• 28:52
  Speaker 5: pull off the upset like Tennessee did last.
• 28:54
  Speaker 2: Week, I think it's a bad spot going into the
• 28:57
  Speaker 2: next game.
• 28:57
  Speaker 5: So I think the correct side in this game is
• 28:59
  Speaker 5: the New York Giants, the football Giants. It looks like
• 29:03
  Speaker 5: we have 52% of tickets, 53% of the cash on Tennessee.
• 29:06
  Speaker 5: I mean, really hard to read the market here. It
• 29:08
  Speaker 5: seems like the... The betters just seem like they don't
• 29:12
  Speaker 5: know what to do with this game pretty much.
• 29:14
  Speaker 2: The Giants, it looks like you can actually find a 2.5
• 29:16
  Speaker 2: on this now.
• 29:18
  Speaker 5: So it looks like with Dart, the line probably would
• 29:21
  Speaker 5: have been 5.5 maybe. So I think you're getting some value.
• 29:24
  Speaker 5: You're getting the Giants at under a field goal. So, yeah,
• 29:26
  Speaker 5: I think the lean is the Giants there. It's a
• 29:28
  Speaker 5: really low total, though. The under has been hit really hard,
• 29:32
  Speaker 5: and the total is down to 37.5. Really, really ugly
• 29:35
  Speaker 5: total there. This is expected to be an ugly offensive
• 29:38
  Speaker 5: game on both sides. But, you know, you don't have
• 29:42
  Speaker 5: to lay too many points with the Giants, although I
• 29:44
  Speaker 5: guess you could money line it if you wanted to
• 29:45
  Speaker 5: do that and not have to worry about the Giants
• 29:48
  Speaker 5: covering even a small spread there.
• 29:50
  Speaker 2: Dude, I gave you.
• 29:51
  Speaker 5: The analysis and why I like those plays, and you're
• 29:55
  Speaker 5: just going to fucking fade them, even though I gave
• 29:57
  Speaker 5: really strong opinions as to why you shouldn't.
• 30:00
  Speaker 2: Yeah, fuck off with that.
• 30:01
  Speaker 5: And like I said, Kentucky, that was a complete bullshit
• 30:04
  Speaker 5: loss that we took on the South Alabama side there.
• 30:08
  Speaker 2: What was the other one?
• 30:09
  Speaker 5: The other one that I lost, I didn't even see
• 30:11
  Speaker 5: what New Mexico State did. They probably turned it over
• 30:14
  Speaker 5: a lot. Maybe that game was fucking bullshit too.
• 30:16
  Speaker 2: I don't know.
• 30:17
  Speaker 5: I don't know why the fuck you would fade both
• 30:19
  Speaker 5: of those. If you don't want to play the game, fine,
• 30:22
  Speaker 5: but fading... what I have is a really strong opinion.
• 30:26
  Speaker 5: When you know what my track record is, fuck off,
• 30:28
  Speaker 5: fuck you with that. You deserve to lose money.
• 30:31
  Speaker 2: Keep doing it. Keep doing it.
• 30:33
  Speaker 5: Lay the, lay the spread with the bills this time
• 30:35
  Speaker 5: and do it, do it, lay the bills, lay the chiefs,
• 30:39
  Speaker 5: do it. I want to see you lose longterm. Cause that's,
• 30:42
  Speaker 5: what's going to happen if you keep fading me.
• 30:44
  Speaker 2: All right.
• 30:45
  Speaker 5: Um, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, I do have an opinion on
• 30:49
  Speaker 5: this game, and I like the Pittsburgh side in this one.
• 30:52
  Speaker 2: Cincinnati's 2-0. They've looked good so far. They looked good.
• 30:55
  Speaker 5: Against the Texans last week, but I showed you the
• 31:01
  Speaker 5: box score in that game already, and that was a
• 31:02
  Speaker 5: misleading result. Houston outgained Cincinnati significantly in that game. So
• 31:07
  Speaker 5: Cincinnati's coming off a big win on the road against
• 31:10
  Speaker 5: a good Texans team.
• 31:12
  Speaker 2: Could be a letdown for that reason.
• 31:14
  Speaker 5: Alone but the fact that it was misleading I think
• 31:17
  Speaker 5: makes it even better to fade Cincinnati here it's a
• 31:20
  Speaker 5: second straight road game which isn't really that easy to
• 31:22
  Speaker 5: do these divisional home dogs tend to be a decent
• 31:25
  Speaker 5: play just kind of in general and Pittsburgh has looked
• 31:28
  Speaker 5: real ugly so far they're still you know adapting to
• 31:31
  Speaker 5: the McCarthy system whatever they're one-on-one so far they look
• 31:35
  Speaker 5: terrible against New England last week they look so bad
• 31:38
  Speaker 5: nobody is going to want them but I told you
• 31:40
  Speaker 5: I gave some reasons why I thought New England was
• 31:42
  Speaker 5: the right side in that game and Yes, Pittsburgh's offense
• 31:45
  Speaker 5: looks absolutely miserable right now.
• 31:47
  Speaker 2: I get it, but I think they're the right side here.
• 31:50
  Speaker 5: You're going to be getting points at home with them
• 31:52
  Speaker 5: here in a divisional matchup that I think is going
• 31:54
  Speaker 5: to be tough. The public is only going to play
• 31:56
  Speaker 5: the Bengals here. The public likes the better offense. They
• 31:59
  Speaker 5: like the team that's looked way better, and that is
• 32:01
  Speaker 5: obviously Cincinnati. 80% of the tickets, 83% of the cash
• 32:05
  Speaker 5: on them. You're getting the full hook on this pretty much.
• 32:08
  Speaker 5: You can get 3.5%. In this game with Pittsburgh, it
• 32:11
  Speaker 5: looks like, and it's not really a high total either,
• 32:13
  Speaker 5: and the money's kind of driving that total down a
• 32:16
  Speaker 5: little bit too.
• 32:16
  Speaker 2: So low total also makes.
• 32:19
  Speaker 5: Me more likely to lean towards the home dog in
• 32:23
  Speaker 5: a situation like that. I like Pittsburgh in that one,
• 32:26
  Speaker 5: even though, yeah, Pittsburgh, they play the Browns on Thursday night,
• 32:29
  Speaker 5: but do you really think Pittsburgh's going to overlook.
• 32:31
  Speaker 2: A home game against Cincinnati? I don't think so.
• 32:34
  Speaker 5: So I don't think it's a look-ahead spot for them,
• 32:36
  Speaker 5: but for the Browns it might be.
• 32:38
  Speaker 3: All right.
• 32:40
  Speaker 5: Seattle and Washington, yeah, right. Well, I'm going to give
• 32:43
  Speaker 5: you a loser on this one. I hope this bet
• 32:45
  Speaker 5: fucking loses because Mr. Pinsey is going to play it,
• 32:48
  Speaker 5: even though he's going to play the side that I
• 32:52
  Speaker 5: like here. We're taking Washington plus eight in this one.
• 32:55
  Speaker 5: Nobody's going to want it. Nobody's going to want to
• 32:57
  Speaker 5: fade Seattle here. And while, yes, I don't think that
• 33:00
  Speaker 5: it's that bad for Seattle to go out to the
• 33:02
  Speaker 5: East Coast, really, I think that it's a spot play
• 33:06
  Speaker 5: anyway here for other reasons, even though Seattle does tend
• 33:09
  Speaker 5: to be good on the road with McDonald there, but
• 33:12
  Speaker 5: you're asking him to lay eight points in a game
• 33:14
  Speaker 5: like this. Seattle's looked way too good in my opinion
• 33:18
  Speaker 5: so far. I don't think Seattle is as good as
• 33:20
  Speaker 5: people think they are. Yeah, they won the Super Bowl
• 33:22
  Speaker 5: last year, whatever, but there are a lot of things
• 33:25
  Speaker 5: I like about this.
• 33:26
  Speaker 2: They're 2-0.
• 33:27
  Speaker 5: They won the Super Bowl rematch against the Patriots. Then
• 33:30
  Speaker 5: they blasted the Cardinals with Drew Locke. They won both
• 33:33
  Speaker 5: those games basically with Drew Locke. So people are going
• 33:36
  Speaker 5: to think, well, Sam Darnold is coming back this week, man.
• 33:38
  Speaker 5: So that means Seattle is going to be even better
• 33:41
  Speaker 5: this week, right? Like, how could Seattle be stopped if
• 33:43
  Speaker 5: they just won a divisional game 31-7 and now their
• 33:47
  Speaker 5: QB is coming back? But what do I always talk about?
• 33:50
  Speaker 5: Reverse injured player spot. That affects the line in the
• 33:53
  Speaker 5: other direction. That means the line is going to overreact
• 33:57
  Speaker 5: towards Seattle. It's going to jack up the price on
• 33:59
  Speaker 5: Seattle because Seattle Darnold is coming back, and he's going
• 34:02
  Speaker 5: to get some respect in the market, at least probably
• 34:04
  Speaker 5: I would say a few points over Drew Locke. We
• 34:07
  Speaker 5: saw that was the case last week. The line dropped
• 34:10
  Speaker 5: like a bunch of points. I think it dropped seven
• 34:14
  Speaker 5: points on the line last week for Seattle. So now
• 34:18
  Speaker 5: I don't think it's increasing that much for Darnold coming
• 34:21
  Speaker 5: back this time, but still it is moving up a bit.
• 34:24
  Speaker 5: So we have that going for us here, fading Seattle.
• 34:27
  Speaker 5: And the other thing, the other reason why the reverse
• 34:29
  Speaker 5: injured player theory works is, well, Darnold basically hasn't even
• 34:32
  Speaker 5: played yet this season. I think he was really limited
• 34:35
  Speaker 5: in preseason or maybe he didn't even play at all
• 34:38
  Speaker 5: in preseason. So how much has Darnold even played yet
• 34:41
  Speaker 5: so far this year? He's played like a little bit
• 34:43
  Speaker 5: against the Patriots. He's played like a quarter of football
• 34:46
  Speaker 5: so far. So do you really want to lay points
• 34:48
  Speaker 5: on the road with a guy that still has to
• 34:50
  Speaker 5: kind of get up to speed this season?
• 34:52
  Speaker 2: I wouldn't want to do that. And I think the
• 34:55
  Speaker 2: team's going to get.
• 34:55
  Speaker 5: Really complacent, like I said, because last week was the
• 34:58
  Speaker 5: injured player theory spot for them where they knew they
• 35:00
  Speaker 5: had to step up their game with Drew Locke there.
• 35:03
  Speaker 2: But now they're going to think, well, we just annihilated
• 35:05
  Speaker 2: our opponent with Drew Locke.
• 35:06
  Speaker 5: Of course, we're going to be able to win with
• 35:08
  Speaker 5: our quarterback back, with Darnold back. So I think the
• 35:11
  Speaker 5: team might take their foot off the gas a little bit.
• 35:13
  Speaker 5: So I think this is a bad spot for Seattle.
• 35:16
  Speaker 5: Maybe even possibly a letdown off of just a massive
• 35:19
  Speaker 5: blowout win. Um, in a, in a division game, Washington, meanwhile,
• 35:24
  Speaker 5: they started the season with a difficult schedule, man. They
• 35:28
  Speaker 5: had to play two divisional games right out of the gate,
• 35:30
  Speaker 5: both on the road. They played pretty well against the
• 35:33
  Speaker 5: Eagles and came close to winning that game, even though
• 35:35
  Speaker 5: maybe they should have lost by more than they did,
• 35:37
  Speaker 5: but they almost tied the game at the end. Then, yeah,
• 35:40
  Speaker 5: they lost to the Cowboys last week. They're kind of
• 35:42
  Speaker 5: hanging in that game, but we know what happened in
• 35:44
  Speaker 5: that game. Jaden Daniels got hurt. So what do we
• 35:47
  Speaker 5: have here? We have the injured player theory spot for
• 35:50
  Speaker 5: Washington here. So in this game, we have reverse injured
• 35:53
  Speaker 5: player theory going up against injured player theory. It's a
• 35:56
  Speaker 5: double injured player theory in this game. You have it
• 36:00
  Speaker 5: going in the same direction, too. So both of them
• 36:04
  Speaker 5: go in. One of them goes against Seattle. The other
• 36:07
  Speaker 5: one goes.
• 36:08
  Speaker 2: For Washington here. So they both go in the same direction.
• 36:12
  Speaker 5: So that means the line is going to overreact even
• 36:14
  Speaker 5: more because Daniels is out. And I don't think it's
• 36:18
  Speaker 5: much of a downgrade because Washington is bringing in Marcus
• 36:20
  Speaker 5: Mariota and he's been their backup for a long time.
• 36:23
  Speaker 5: He fits right into their system because he's a similar
• 36:25
  Speaker 5: quarterback to Daniels.
• 36:27
  Speaker 2: He's just older. You know, he's still like kind of
• 36:29
  Speaker 2: a mobile quarterback, whatever.
• 36:30
  Speaker 5: And he's played a lot because we know Daniels keeps
• 36:33
  Speaker 5: getting hurt. And by the way, it gets even more
• 36:35
  Speaker 5: interesting because when Daniels, Daniels has another arm injury, dislocated
• 36:39
  Speaker 5: elbow or whatever, he had a dislocated elbow last year.
• 36:42
  Speaker 5: That was his most recent injury last year.
• 36:44
  Speaker 4: Hmm.
• 36:45
  Speaker 5: Um, Who were they playing in that game, by the way,
• 36:48
  Speaker 5: when Jaden Daniels dislocated his elbow last time, last year?
• 36:52
  Speaker 2: Oh, yeah, they were at home against Seattle.
• 36:55
  Speaker 5: I haven't heard anybody bring up that angle in this game,
• 36:57
  Speaker 5: but that might be another angle where Washington wants this
• 37:01
  Speaker 5: game even more because that was a disastrous game against
• 37:04
  Speaker 5: the Seahawks last year.
• 37:05
  Speaker 2: The Seahawks came into Washington, and they killed Washington.
• 37:09
  Speaker 5: In that game it was like a 30 point win
• 37:12
  Speaker 5: for the Seahawks or whatever the game was embarrassing it
• 37:14
  Speaker 5: wasn't even close and Washington left Daniels in at the
• 37:17
  Speaker 5: end of the game for some reason even though the
• 37:19
  Speaker 5: game was already way out of hand and that's when
• 37:21
  Speaker 5: he dislocated his elbow So do you.
• 37:24
  Speaker 2: Not think Washington is going to remember that game? I
• 37:27
  Speaker 2: remember it.
• 37:27
  Speaker 5: I'm surprised I haven't heard anybody else bring that up.
• 37:30
  Speaker 5: I think Washington might have this game circled for that reason, too.
• 37:32
  Speaker 5: So I think you're going to get a massive effort
• 37:35
  Speaker 5: out of Washington for that reason, plus the fact that
• 37:37
  Speaker 5: they're 0-2. You're getting a shitload of points at home. Yeah,
• 37:42
  Speaker 5: Washington is the obvious side for me here. 79% of tickets,
• 37:47
  Speaker 5: 73% of the.
• 37:48
  Speaker 2: Cash on Seattle. Seattle's a public side.
• 37:50
  Speaker 5: This line has moved up from 5.5 to the 8
• 37:53
  Speaker 5: where it is right now, or maybe 8.5, whatever. That
• 37:56
  Speaker 5: was just because of the Darnold injury, though. So the
• 38:00
  Speaker 5: Daniels injury we already knew about. So the line, I think,
• 38:03
  Speaker 5: would have probably been... Maybe Seattle minus two or something,
• 38:08
  Speaker 5: but then now that Darnold is coming back, now the
• 38:11
  Speaker 5: line's already up to eight, so it's been like a
• 38:14
  Speaker 5: six-point swing due to all that, due to just the, yeah,
• 38:19
  Speaker 5: due to, I guess, both injuries combined, I guess, but yeah.
• 38:22
  Speaker 5: Definitely we're doing it, and plus the total in this
• 38:24
  Speaker 5: game is low, man. It's 40 or 39.5, so the
• 38:27
  Speaker 5: oddsmakers do not think there's going to be a ton
• 38:30
  Speaker 5: of offense in this game, even though I know Washington's
• 38:32
  Speaker 5: not a good defense. I understand Seattle is the better
• 38:36
  Speaker 5: defense here, and I am more inclined to take points
• 38:39
  Speaker 5: with the better defense, which is not what we're doing here,
• 38:42
  Speaker 5: but this is still a spot play. I had a
• 38:44
  Speaker 5: couple of plays with Washington as an underdog last year.
• 38:47
  Speaker 5: I know one of them worked out really well against Denver,
• 38:50
  Speaker 5: and Maybe this will be kind of a similar thing
• 38:52
  Speaker 5: to that last year. It's a great spot to make
• 38:55
  Speaker 5: this play. And, you know, maybe Seattle will be more
• 38:59
  Speaker 5: of a defensive team in this game, and that's not
• 39:01
  Speaker 5: what you want, laying points like that. So, yes, Washington
• 39:04
  Speaker 5: plus eight or whatever the hell the number is, we're
• 39:06
  Speaker 5: doing that. Yes, you should definitely not play the Eagles.
• 39:10
  Speaker 5: What the fuck is wrong with you? Do you see
• 39:12
  Speaker 5: the title of the show here? The Eagles are an
• 39:15
  Speaker 5: absolutely stupid play. I hate the Bears, and I still
• 39:19
  Speaker 5: do not agree with the Eagles in this game.
• 39:22
  Speaker 3: No.
• 39:24
  Speaker 2: You're still getting burnt? Well, you deserved it today for
• 39:28
  Speaker 2: fading my place. Yeah, whatever, man.
• 39:31
  Speaker 5: I still wound up with a 3-2 day with my plays.
• 39:34
  Speaker 2: If you actually faded all my plays, you would.
• 39:36
  Speaker 5: Have wound up 2-3, but selectively fading them should still
• 39:41
  Speaker 5: fuck you.
• 39:42
  Speaker 2: All right. Last 1 p.m. game is New England-Jacksonville. This game.
• 39:48
  Speaker 5: This game is a little bit hard for me to
• 39:49
  Speaker 5: figure out as well. New England did just have a
• 39:52
  Speaker 5: nice win in their home opener against the Steelers. They
• 39:54
  Speaker 5: had a big game the week before that, too, in
• 39:56
  Speaker 5: the Super Bowl revenge game, and they fucked it up
• 39:58
  Speaker 5: with a bunch of turnovers and lost. Now they're going
• 40:01
  Speaker 5: to go back out on the road to Jacksonville. A
• 40:04
  Speaker 5: little bit of a weird spot here, and they do
• 40:05
  Speaker 5: have that huge game that I mentioned up next against
• 40:08
  Speaker 5: the Bills, so I think maybe New England... Little bit
• 40:11
  Speaker 5: of a look ahead maybe here to that Bills game.
• 40:13
  Speaker 5: Jaguars didn't really look that good last week against the Broncos.
• 40:17
  Speaker 2: The Jaguars blew that game badly.
• 40:20
  Speaker 5: The Broncos were the last game that I put in
• 40:23
  Speaker 5: my pick five entry last week.
• 40:26
  Speaker 2: And it was a winner.
• 40:26
  Speaker 5: It should have been an easier winner, though, for the Broncos.
• 40:29
  Speaker 5: They actually outgained Jacksonville by a lot in that game.
• 40:33
  Speaker 5: But I think it was a tough spot for Jacksonville.
• 40:34
  Speaker 5: You know, just going out on the road to Mile High,
• 40:37
  Speaker 5: where Denver was coming off an embarrassing loss. So they
• 40:39
  Speaker 5: ran into a very motivated Bronco team. Broncos had been
• 40:43
  Speaker 5: embarrassed by Jacksonville in that stadium last year. I think
• 40:46
  Speaker 5: Jacksonville being back home here... which I know sometimes they
• 40:50
  Speaker 5: say the home is a distraction, but I don't really
• 40:52
  Speaker 5: think so here. I think Jacksonville might be in a
• 40:53
  Speaker 5: little bit of a bounce-back spot. Patriots probably looked a
• 40:57
  Speaker 5: little bit better than they really were last week. They
• 40:59
  Speaker 5: were up against an inept Steelers offense. You know this
• 41:03
  Speaker 5: Jacksonville offense is not inept. This Jacksonville offense is probably
• 41:10
  Speaker 5: going to be the best offense the Patriots have had
• 41:12
  Speaker 5: to face so far. I think they're better than Seattle.
• 41:15
  Speaker 5: I think Seattle's a better defensive team than offensive team.
• 41:18
  Speaker 5: I'm going to lead Jacksonville here in this one. They're
• 41:20
  Speaker 5: laying points. It looks like New England might be a
• 41:22
  Speaker 5: bit of a public underdog here. Although we see 71%
• 41:24
  Speaker 5: of tickets, 78% of the cash on them. I don't
• 41:28
  Speaker 5: know if that discrepancy is really that indicative of anything.
• 41:32
  Speaker 5: I kind of want to see where this market goes tomorrow,
• 41:34
  Speaker 5: but you can lay about three, I guess, or maybe
• 41:38
  Speaker 5: two and a half with the Jags here in this one.
• 41:41
  Speaker 5: The line hasn't moved a whole lot, but I think
• 41:43
  Speaker 5: Jacksonville is probably my lean in that one.
• 41:45
  Speaker 2: All right. I've, Strong opinions on most of these games.
• 41:50
  Speaker 5: I think the only games where I don't really have
• 41:51
  Speaker 5: a strong opinion are, I guess, Carolina, Cleveland, New York,
• 41:54
  Speaker 5: Detroit is like the worst one. And then I guess
• 42:02
  Speaker 5: I think Vegas, New Orleans is a tough one to
• 42:04
  Speaker 5: figure out, too.
• 42:05
  Speaker 2: But I think I have.
• 42:07
  Speaker 5: A fairly solid opinion on the rest of these games
• 42:09
  Speaker 5: that I'm probably not going to change. So just, you know,
• 42:12
  Speaker 5: to let you know what I'm going to be doing
• 42:13
  Speaker 5: with my pick and pulls, I might not change anything
• 42:16
  Speaker 5: from what I've said so far, but we'll see. Cause
• 42:18
  Speaker 5: I kind of like to do that final market read.
• 42:20
  Speaker 5: All right, Arizona-San Francisco. I think there's a clear way
• 42:23
  Speaker 5: to play this game here, and it's really just fading
• 42:26
  Speaker 5: what we saw last week. San Francisco's looked really good
• 42:29
  Speaker 5: so far. They're 2-0, but they got a lot of injuries, man.
• 42:32
  Speaker 5: Bosa is now injured. I still think it's the electrical substation, man.
• 42:36
  Speaker 5: No team in history has ever had as many injuries.
• 42:39
  Speaker 2: As the 49ers have.
• 42:40
  Speaker 5: Over the last few years, it's insane how many injuries
• 42:43
  Speaker 5: they have. They have so many injuries, they're about to
• 42:45
  Speaker 5: use up the NFL's maximum allotted IR spots. I've never
• 42:51
  Speaker 5: even heard of that before. I did not even know
• 42:54
  Speaker 5: that there was a limit to the amount of people
• 42:56
  Speaker 5: you can put on the IR, but San Francisco is
• 42:58
  Speaker 5: about to hit that. It's so ridiculous. I'm not doing
• 43:01
  Speaker 5: fucking horse betting, dude. I'm not doing it, although I
• 43:04
  Speaker 5: do talk about the Triple Crown races. on the show,
• 43:06
  Speaker 5: and I gave out some winners on the Kentucky Derby
• 43:09
  Speaker 5: last year, I was not right about any of those
• 43:12
  Speaker 5: races this year, but no, I mean, I'm not into it, dude,
• 43:15
  Speaker 5: I'm not going to spread myself even thinner than I
• 43:18
  Speaker 5: already am, I'm not doing it, you got to specialize
• 43:22
  Speaker 5: a bit, San Francisco, yeah, I mean, they look good, okay, like,
• 43:27
  Speaker 5: they blew out the Dolphins last week, but it's the Dolphins,
• 43:29
  Speaker 5: I mean, they're not great, I mean, they might be
• 43:32
  Speaker 5: the worst team in the NFL, And, yeah, people are
• 43:34
  Speaker 5: latching on to the fact that San Francisco won that
• 43:36
  Speaker 5: big game against the Rams, and the Rams looked really
• 43:39
  Speaker 5: good last week. But I told you, that was about
• 43:41
  Speaker 5: the way that the teams handled the travel spot to Australia.
• 43:46
  Speaker 5: It was just, yeah, the 49ers obviously handled it better,
• 43:49
  Speaker 5: and that's why I gave them out as a play.
• 43:51
  Speaker 5: I was correct about that. Now, San Francisco's, I guess,
• 43:55
  Speaker 5: staying at home for this game. Yeah, because I think
• 43:58
  Speaker 5: the Rams are technically the home.
• 43:59
  Speaker 2: Team in the Australia game, I believe.
• 44:02
  Speaker 4: I don't know.
• 44:03
  Speaker 2: But anyway, 49ers staying at home here.
• 44:06
  Speaker 5: The Cardinals are also coming off getting annihilated by the Seahawks,
• 44:10
  Speaker 5: so nobody's going to want Arizona after that.
• 44:12
  Speaker 2: So I think it's just simple.
• 44:14
  Speaker 5: It's just the Arizona's coming off a blowout loss. The
• 44:16
  Speaker 5: 49ers are coming off a blowout win. So the line's
• 44:19
  Speaker 5: going to be skewed a bit towards the 49ers here.
• 44:22
  Speaker 5: So I think Arizona is the right side in this
• 44:25
  Speaker 5: game if you're really going to play the side in
• 44:28
  Speaker 5: this game.
• 44:28
  Speaker 2: 71% of tickets, 74% of the cash on the 49ers.
• 44:32
  Speaker 5: They're about a seven, seven and a half point favorite.
• 44:34
  Speaker 5: The line has gone down a little bit from eight
• 44:36
  Speaker 5: and a half. If you want to play Arizona, try
• 44:38
  Speaker 5: to get the seven and a half. You'll at least
• 44:39
  Speaker 5: get that key number on that one. I don't really
• 44:42
  Speaker 5: have a situational angle to really lean on in that
• 44:46
  Speaker 5: game besides the fact that it's one.
• 44:47
  Speaker 2: Team looked too good last week and one team looked.
• 44:49
  Speaker 5: Too bad this week, but it was, you know, San
• 44:52
  Speaker 5: Francisco was supposed to win that game last week and
• 44:54
  Speaker 5: Arizona was supposed to lose there. So it wasn't anything
• 44:57
  Speaker 5: really unexpected, but yeah, I'd lean Arizona in this one.
• 45:00
  Speaker 5: Next up, is the last play that I have on
• 45:03
  Speaker 5: the card here. And this is one of the top two.
• 45:11
  Speaker 5: This one and the Chargers, I think, are the best
• 45:14
  Speaker 5: two plays of the week. We're taking Tampa Bay plus
• 45:16
  Speaker 5: one and a half in this one against Minnesota. The
• 45:19
  Speaker 5: public's not going to want this one either, man. We're
• 45:22
  Speaker 5: taking an 0-2 team here again. Desperate 0-2 team. We're
• 45:26
  Speaker 5: going to fade Minnesota. Minnesota's 2-0, but I think they're
• 45:29
  Speaker 5: a fraudulent 2-0, man. As I pointed out, in week one,
• 45:33
  Speaker 5: the Packers completely outgamed them in that game, and the
• 45:36
  Speaker 5: Packers had a huge lead in the game. I have
• 45:39
  Speaker 5: no clue how Minnesota won that game, and let alone
• 45:42
  Speaker 5: how they won it by so much. It was one
• 45:44
  Speaker 5: of the most misleading results you'll see all year. The
• 45:46
  Speaker 5: Packers outgamed them by like 200 yards in that game,
• 45:49
  Speaker 5: so that was a completely fake win for Minnesota, and
• 45:52
  Speaker 5: then last week, They had another divisional win, so they're
• 45:55
  Speaker 5: coming up two huge divisional wins.
• 45:58
  Speaker 2: You can't start the season better than that.
• 46:00
  Speaker 5: Minnesota 2-0, and they're up in the tiebreakers now against
• 46:03
  Speaker 5: two divisional opponents. Huge win against the Bears last week. Yeah,
• 46:07
  Speaker 5: Caleb Williams got hurt in the game, but he was
• 46:10
  Speaker 5: in the game for most of the game. I think
• 46:11
  Speaker 5: he got hurt in the third quarter or something. So
• 46:14
  Speaker 5: that Bears offense was still not doing anything against that
• 46:17
  Speaker 5: Minnesota defense.
• 46:19
  Speaker 2: Yes, Minnesota's defense is good.
• 46:22
  Speaker 5: Yes, it's better than the Buccaneers' defense most likely, but
• 46:25
  Speaker 5: this is not a good spot for Minnesota. Two divisional
• 46:29
  Speaker 5: wins here, misleading one in the first game. Last week,
• 46:33
  Speaker 5: it was an upset win for them. Now it's a
• 46:35
  Speaker 5: second straight road game. They've got to leave the central
• 46:37
  Speaker 5: time zone for the first time. They've got to go
• 46:39
  Speaker 5: down to play a desperate 0-2 Tampa team that's coming
• 46:43
  Speaker 5: off a ridiculously bad result against the Browns. And, you know,
• 46:46
  Speaker 5: the weather delay kind of fucked that up, and it
• 46:48
  Speaker 5: looked like Tampa was going to win. I got knocked
• 46:51
  Speaker 5: out of Survivor on this game. Tampa was in the
• 46:53
  Speaker 5: red zone at the end of that game, and the
• 46:55
  Speaker 5: delay happened, and then they wound up getting a bullshit
• 46:58
  Speaker 5: holding call that went against them, and that ended the
• 47:00
  Speaker 5: game for them. Tampa's desperate, completely desperate here, staying at home.
• 47:05
  Speaker 5: I think they're clearly the right side here. An 0-2
• 47:08
  Speaker 5: desperate team against a 2-0 team. Vikings misleading result in
• 47:13
  Speaker 5: week one. And it gets better than that because the
• 47:14
  Speaker 5: Vikings are in a reverse injured player spot. Kyler Murray
• 47:18
  Speaker 5: is coming back in this game. So it will not
• 47:20
  Speaker 5: be Carson Wentz. But what did I just say about
• 47:23
  Speaker 5: Sam Darnold coming back? I'm going to say the same
• 47:26
  Speaker 5: thing about Kyler Murray. Kyler Murray, I don't even think
• 47:28
  Speaker 5: he played in the preseason. He's only played like one.
• 47:32
  Speaker 2: Quarter of football.
• 47:34
  Speaker 5: So far, and it's worse for him than it is
• 47:35
  Speaker 5: for Darnold because at least Darnold is returning to a
• 47:37
  Speaker 5: system he already knows. For Kyler Murray, he's new to
• 47:41
  Speaker 5: the system, and Murray's played, what, like less than a
• 47:44
  Speaker 5: quarter so far in this Kevin O'Connell system? So Murray
• 47:48
  Speaker 5: hasn't even figured out the system yet. He doesn't have
• 47:50
  Speaker 5: his legs in the room yet. They're bringing him back
• 47:53
  Speaker 5: totally cold into this game. I think it's totally stupid,
• 47:56
  Speaker 5: and the Vikings might be complacent here because, oh, yeah,
• 47:58
  Speaker 5: if we can win these games with Carson Wentz.
• 48:01
  Speaker 2: Of course, we're.
• 48:01
  Speaker 5: Going to win with Kyler Murray, but I'm not even
• 48:03
  Speaker 5: convinced that Kyler Murray's that good of a quarterback. He's
• 48:06
  Speaker 5: been a loser throughout his entire career. He's too short
• 48:09
  Speaker 5: to see over his offensive linemen. There's so many things
• 48:12
  Speaker 5: I don't like about the Vikings in this game.
• 48:15
  Speaker 2: It's ridiculous. I don't even think the Vikings are good.
• 48:17
  Speaker 5: I had them pegged as the worst team in this
• 48:19
  Speaker 5: division this year, even though it's a good division, but still. Yeah,
• 48:24
  Speaker 5: this is all ridiculous, man. It's totally ridiculous. Reverse interplayer
• 48:29
  Speaker 5: theory spot is also going to skew this line a
• 48:31
  Speaker 5: little bit. Tampa Bay would be a favorite, I think,
• 48:35
  Speaker 5: otherwise here. And probably should be, actually. I think Tampa
• 48:40
  Speaker 5: should be the favorite in this game. At home, I'm
• 48:42
  Speaker 5: not convinced the Vikings are the better team. Even though
• 48:45
  Speaker 5: the odds are telling you they are, I'm not convinced
• 48:48
  Speaker 5: of that.
• 48:49
  Speaker 2: So, yeah.
• 48:50
  Speaker 5: Situation definitely favors Tampa here in this one. I think
• 48:54
  Speaker 5: Baker Mayfield's the way better quarterback here. Oh, and by
• 48:56
  Speaker 5: the way, one thing I forgot to mention about Houston,
• 49:00
  Speaker 5: in liking Houston, one other little note about Houston is
• 49:04
  Speaker 5: Houston's facing Daniel Jones this week, and the first two
• 49:07
  Speaker 5: QBs they faced this year were Josh Allen and Joe Barrow.
• 49:10
  Speaker 5: So they faced two MVP-level quarterbacks, and now they're facing
• 49:13
  Speaker 5: Daniel Jones. So Houston's defense should see a bit of
• 49:17
  Speaker 5: a bump and be better. in that game against Indy
• 49:21
  Speaker 5: That was that, yeah, Houston game I already talked about. Anyway, yeah,
• 49:24
  Speaker 5: Tampa Bay is the right side in this game. That's,
• 49:27
  Speaker 5: I think, all I had to say about this. And
• 49:29
  Speaker 5: Kyler Murray, I think he's known for also not playing
• 49:32
  Speaker 5: well in outdoor road games. I think he does particularly poorly. So, yeah,
• 49:36
  Speaker 5: I'd much rather have Baker Mayfield in this one, even
• 49:38
  Speaker 5: though I don't even think he's good. But I don't
• 49:40
  Speaker 5: think Kyler Murray's good at all. And the spot definitely
• 49:44
  Speaker 5: does not favor Minnesota. So yes, we are taking Tampa
• 49:47
  Speaker 5: Bay here. Minnesota's got 60% of tickets on them, but
• 49:50
  Speaker 5: 56% of the cash on Tampa.
• 49:53
  Speaker 2: So it looks like a pros versus Joes situation. And yes,
• 49:56
  Speaker 2: I did see.
• 49:58
  Speaker 5: There is some trend with Kevin O'Connell, Minnesota's coach, where
• 50:02
  Speaker 5: I guess he has a lot of trends towards winning
• 50:06
  Speaker 5: games as like a small road favorite or something. Like
• 50:09
  Speaker 5: he's like 12-0 as a small road favorite. I don't
• 50:13
  Speaker 5: even give a shit, though. This spot just screams Tampa
• 50:16
  Speaker 5: Bay to me. It was one of the games that
• 50:18
  Speaker 5: jumped off the board at me right away. The two
• 50:20
  Speaker 5: that I like the most, Chargers and Tampa Bay, and
• 50:24
  Speaker 5: I am deciding on putting Washington on the card as
• 50:27
  Speaker 5: well because of the double injured player theory.
• 50:30
  Speaker 2: That kind of sold me on that one, but yeah.
• 50:33
  Speaker 2: I like this one. I think Chargers are my best play.
• 50:36
  Speaker 2: Tampa's next. Then Washington. Then Houston would be the next
• 50:40
  Speaker 2: one after that.
• 50:41
  Speaker 3: All right.
• 50:42
  Speaker 2: And then number five might be Arizona. Not Arizona. Miami. Yeah,
• 50:46
  Speaker 2: even worse. Miami might be the fifth best play. All right.
• 50:51
  Speaker 2: That might be the last of my pick five. Okay.
• 50:54
  Speaker 2: Baltimore and Dallas.
• 50:56
  Speaker 5: This game is in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, which we're,
• 50:59
  Speaker 5: you know, we've had Brazil games the last couple of years,
• 51:02
  Speaker 5: but we're used to that game being in week one.
• 51:05
  Speaker 5: And for some reason it's in the middle of the
• 51:06
  Speaker 5: season here. I hate these international games, but I believe
• 51:10
  Speaker 5: they're in the Eastern time zone. So it's, or maybe
• 51:13
  Speaker 5: one time zone over from that. So it's not going
• 51:15
  Speaker 5: to be a big deal. Time zone wise for either
• 51:18
  Speaker 5: of these teams here, really. Baltimore and Dallas here. Now
• 51:24
  Speaker 5: this stadium notoriously is high scoring because it has like
• 51:28
  Speaker 5: a chewed up turf and that actually affects the defense's worse.
• 51:32
  Speaker 5: So basically what we've seen in these Brazil games so
• 51:34
  Speaker 5: far is We've seen a decent amount of scoring and
• 51:37
  Speaker 5: the defenses are like slipping, which, yeah, like the offense
• 51:41
  Speaker 5: at least knows where they're going to run. So if
• 51:43
  Speaker 5: you have a slippery field, I think it actually hurts
• 51:45
  Speaker 5: the defenses more. I think the bad weather only hurts
• 51:48
  Speaker 5: the offense if it's wind. But like I mentioned in
• 51:52
  Speaker 5: the college slate today, but if it's just a bad turf.
• 51:55
  Speaker 5: I think that actually helps the offenses because the defenses
• 51:58
  Speaker 5: have to react to where the offense is going, and
• 52:00
  Speaker 5: the defense might trip more. Now, I think we're going
• 52:04
  Speaker 5: to see both of these teams running the football a lot,
• 52:06
  Speaker 5: but I think that might help Baltimore because they got
• 52:08
  Speaker 5: Derrick Henry, and they underused him last week. I'm going
• 52:11
  Speaker 5: to be leaning Baltimore in this game because Baltimore is
• 52:14
  Speaker 5: coming up that ugly, upset loss to the Saints where Baltimore,
• 52:17
  Speaker 5: I think, was winning that game by maybe multiple scores.
• 52:20
  Speaker 2: Late in that game.
• 52:21
  Speaker 5: I don't know how they lost that game. But yeah,
• 52:24
  Speaker 5: Baltimore is a big favorite losing the game. You know,
• 52:26
  Speaker 5: I talk about this when a team loses a game
• 52:29
  Speaker 5: as a favorite. I think they tend to bounce back
• 52:31
  Speaker 5: in the next game. Whereas for Dallas, Dallas is coming
• 52:35
  Speaker 5: up a big divisional win. They played two divisional games
• 52:37
  Speaker 5: to start the season. One was a big Sunday night
• 52:39
  Speaker 5: game where they lost to the Giants. They bounced back
• 52:42
  Speaker 5: and they beat Washington last week. And I know Daniels
• 52:45
  Speaker 5: went down in that game, but still big win for Dallas.
• 52:48
  Speaker 5: So I think kind of simply Ravens are coming up
• 52:51
  Speaker 5: a real ugly performance as a favorite. Dallas is coming
• 52:54
  Speaker 5: up a big divisional win, even though they were a
• 52:56
  Speaker 5: small favorite in that game.
• 52:58
  Speaker 2: I lean Baltimore here in this one.
• 53:00
  Speaker 5: I don't know if either team's doing anything specific travel wise, but, uh,
• 53:04
  Speaker 5: the money.
• 53:04
  Speaker 2: Seems to agree with me here.
• 53:05
  Speaker 5: 54% of tickets on Dallas, 57% of the cash on Baltimore.
• 53:10
  Speaker 5: There are three and a half point favorite here. Um, Yeah,
• 53:13
  Speaker 5: I'm going to lean that way as well. I thought
• 53:16
  Speaker 5: it was a three. It did open three, but it's
• 53:18
  Speaker 5: gone up a little bit, so some of the money
• 53:19
  Speaker 5: is on Baltimore here. It looks like you're probably going
• 53:22
  Speaker 5: to have to lay three and a half if you
• 53:23
  Speaker 5: want to play Baltimore, but I think that is probably
• 53:25
  Speaker 5: the side in that game.
• 53:28
  Speaker 2: It's the week of the dogs.
• 53:30
  Speaker 5: Well, I mean, it's the NFL, but yeah, early NFL weeks,
• 53:36
  Speaker 5: I like a lot of underdogs, man, but I like
• 53:37
  Speaker 5: a few favorites in here.
• 53:39
  Speaker 4: I mean.
• 53:40
  Speaker 5: Yeah, like Houston, although I know they're a really small favorite.
• 53:42
  Speaker 5: I don't like any of the big favorites for sure.
• 53:45
  Speaker 5: They're all overrated. I mean, that's just how it is.
• 53:48
  Speaker 5: Vegas and New Orleans, I might like the favorite in
• 53:52
  Speaker 5: this one. Both teams are coming off big wins. Vegas
• 53:55
  Speaker 5: is coming off a big divisional win against the Chargers.
• 54:00
  Speaker 5: Second straight road game here. Now, this will be the
• 54:02
  Speaker 5: first time Vegas is leaving the Pacific time zone. They
• 54:05
  Speaker 5: got to go to New Orleans. And up next, as
• 54:06
  Speaker 5: I mentioned earlier, they got the Chiefs. So they're in
• 54:09
  Speaker 5: a divisional sandwich here. Vegas, big upset win over the
• 54:12
  Speaker 5: Chargers last week. Second straight road game now. They've got
• 54:14
  Speaker 5: to play the Saints, and they've got the Chiefs on deck.
• 54:17
  Speaker 5: Not a good spot for Vegas here. But it isn't
• 54:20
  Speaker 5: a good spot for the Saints either. The Saints coming
• 54:22
  Speaker 5: off two huge games on the road against the Lions,
• 54:25
  Speaker 5: almost pulling off the upset there. Then they swung around,
• 54:28
  Speaker 5: and second straight road game, I thought it wasn't really
• 54:31
  Speaker 5: a good spot for them.
• 54:32
  Speaker 2: And what did they do? They pulled off an upset
• 54:34
  Speaker 2: against the Ravens. That's insane.
• 54:37
  Speaker 5: So now they're coming up that upset there. And they
• 54:38
  Speaker 5: do have a divisional game up next. And it is
• 54:40
  Speaker 5: a Monday night game as well against the Falcons. So
• 54:44
  Speaker 5: New Orleans might be looking ahead to that game too.
• 54:47
  Speaker 5: Big divisional matchup on Monday night. So I don't like
• 54:50
  Speaker 5: either team in this one. So what do we do
• 54:51
  Speaker 5: with this one? You know, I think New Orleans is
• 54:56
  Speaker 5: the better team though. And the odds are telling you that.
• 54:58
  Speaker 5: They're a three, three and a half point favor here.
• 55:00
  Speaker 5: It does look like the money's leaning that way. 61%
• 55:02
  Speaker 5: of tickets, 81% of the cash on New Orleans. It
• 55:06
  Speaker 5: is a road out of conference game for Vegas, so
• 55:08
  Speaker 5: I do say that that is one of the lesser
• 55:11
  Speaker 5: spots on a team's schedule here. So, yeah, I'm going
• 55:15
  Speaker 5: to slightly lean towards the Saints in this one.
• 55:17
  Speaker 2: I think. I think they're a better team.
• 55:19
  Speaker 5: Both teams in a bad spot here, but I like
• 55:22
  Speaker 5: the Saints a little bit better, and, you know, I
• 55:24
  Speaker 5: think the spot might be just slightly worse for the
• 55:26
  Speaker 5: Raiders there, so that would be my opinion in that game.
• 55:30
  Speaker 2: And I like Shuck, man, I do. I like Kirk Cousins, too.
• 55:33
  Speaker 5: He's been good so far for the Raiders, but, you know... Chuck,
• 55:36
  Speaker 5: I mean, I think Chuck might be the real deal, man.
• 55:38
  Speaker 5: I think at this stage of their careers, I think
• 55:40
  Speaker 5: he's better than Kirk Cousins.
• 55:42
  Speaker 2: So that's what we got going on there. All right.
• 55:45
  Speaker 5: And then we have the night game. Sunday night is
• 55:47
  Speaker 5: Rams at Denver. So the Rams have to go to
• 55:49
  Speaker 5: mile high. I don't really think this is a good
• 55:51
  Speaker 5: spot for the Rams. And they still are going to
• 55:53
  Speaker 5: be without Puka Nakua. I played them last week anyway
• 55:56
  Speaker 5: without him. And yeah, the Rams are a deep team.
• 55:59
  Speaker 5: They're going to be without Nakua. They're without Miles Garrett
• 56:02
  Speaker 5: right now. But they can kind of cover for all that.
• 56:04
  Speaker 5: But I think they kind of looked too good against
• 56:06
  Speaker 5: the Giants. It was a good spot to play the Rams.
• 56:08
  Speaker 5: I gave you guys that play on the Rams last week.
• 56:10
  Speaker 5: They looked really good on Monday night, and yes, I
• 56:12
  Speaker 5: know they got to face a dartless Giants pretty much
• 56:16
  Speaker 5: in that game.
• 56:18
  Speaker 2: But yeah, I mean, this is a tough spot for them.
• 56:20
  Speaker 5: It's a road out of conference game, by the way,
• 56:22
  Speaker 5: so I'm going to mention it again. It's the least
• 56:25
  Speaker 5: on a team's schedule, even though it is the Broncos.
• 56:27
  Speaker 5: They're a decent team here. Still, the Rams coming off
• 56:30
  Speaker 5: that big Monday night game, they... Week one, they had
• 56:34
  Speaker 5: to play in Australia. Then they came back home. Now
• 56:36
  Speaker 5: they're having to go into mountain time here and play
• 56:38
  Speaker 5: in the mountains. And they got a big game next
• 56:40
  Speaker 5: against the Eagles. So possible look ahead there because it's
• 56:44
  Speaker 5: an NFC matchup at least. So yeah, I think the
• 56:46
  Speaker 5: Broncos are in the better spot here. Rams are on
• 56:48
  Speaker 5: the quick turnaround time. I think it's usually a good
• 56:50
  Speaker 5: idea more often than not to fade the team that
• 56:53
  Speaker 5: looked good on Monday night. That would be the Rams.
• 56:55
  Speaker 5: The Broncos, yeah, they look pretty good in that win
• 56:57
  Speaker 5: over the Jaguars. But they were better in that game
• 57:00
  Speaker 5: than it looked, I think. Like I pointed out... I
• 57:02
  Speaker 5: liked the Broncos in that game. They had to overcome
• 57:04
  Speaker 5: a late deficit, so people might not be sold on
• 57:06
  Speaker 5: the Broncos after that because the Broncos also still look
• 57:09
  Speaker 5: bad on that night game against the Chiefs too, the
• 57:13
  Speaker 5: Monday night game. But yeah, I think Denver staying at home,
• 57:17
  Speaker 5: it's going to help them as well. Coming off a
• 57:19
  Speaker 5: game where they were actually better than the score looked
• 57:21
  Speaker 5: against the Jags. Denver outgained them, I think, by about
• 57:24
  Speaker 5: 100 yards in that game. I think Denver getting the
• 57:27
  Speaker 5: points is the right side here. I think you might
• 57:28
  Speaker 5: be getting the better defense with Denver, even though I
• 57:31
  Speaker 5: think both teams do have pretty good defenses. The Rams
• 57:33
  Speaker 5: are definitely the better offense, but the public is on
• 57:36
  Speaker 5: the Rams because the public likes what they saw last.
• 57:39
  Speaker 5: It looks like kind of an easy number to take
• 57:42
  Speaker 5: the Rams. It's 2.5, and it's been 2.5 all week.
• 57:45
  Speaker 5: Although 69% of tickets and cash on the Rams. So
• 57:48
  Speaker 5: the public is on the Rams that that line hasn't moved.
• 57:51
  Speaker 5: It's below that key number three and the oddsmakers seem
• 57:54
  Speaker 5: like they're fine with taking the Rams money in this game.
• 57:57
  Speaker 5: So that kind of indicates something to you as well
• 57:59
  Speaker 5: that it looks too easy to take the Rams and
• 58:01
  Speaker 5: the oddsmakers are fine with taking all that money. So
• 58:05
  Speaker 5: I think that indicates that the Broncos might be the
• 58:07
  Speaker 5: right side as well for that reason. Money is coming
• 58:09
  Speaker 5: in on the under, which I think might be correlated
• 58:12
  Speaker 5: to Denver as well because I think they want to
• 58:14
  Speaker 5: muddy this game up and play a defensive game. Kind
• 58:18
  Speaker 5: of a low total in the mid-40s. It's gone down
• 58:20
  Speaker 5: a little bit. I'm going to lean Denver in that one.
• 58:24
  Speaker 5: And then we have the Monday night game on ESPN,
• 58:25
  Speaker 5: Philly at Chicago. Now, there are some positives for the
• 58:29
  Speaker 5: Eagles here. They're coming off kind of a bad performance
• 58:31
  Speaker 5: against the Titans, so they didn't look that great. And
• 58:34
  Speaker 5: a lot of times when a favorite escapes like that,
• 58:38
  Speaker 5: they're the play in the next game. But I don't
• 58:40
  Speaker 5: think they are in this one because it's a second
• 58:42
  Speaker 5: straight road game. And even though Philadelphia does have revenge
• 58:45
  Speaker 5: in mind, I mentioned that as part of the reason
• 58:47
  Speaker 5: why I liked the Titans last week. I said I
• 58:49
  Speaker 5: thought Philly would be looking ahead to this game because
• 58:52
  Speaker 5: if you remember– the Black Friday game last week, or
• 58:55
  Speaker 5: last year, excuse me. Philadelphia was the big home favorite,
• 58:59
  Speaker 5: and they lost outright to the Bears. Really bad game
• 59:02
  Speaker 5: for Philadelphia there in that one, but it is still
• 59:05
  Speaker 5: a second straight road game, and I think this is
• 59:07
  Speaker 5: a positive spot for Chicago, even though I don't like
• 59:10
  Speaker 5: the Bears.
• 59:11
  Speaker 2: There are multiple reasons to like the Bears in this spot.
• 59:14
  Speaker 5: One is they looked really bad against the Vikings, only
• 59:16
  Speaker 5: scoring three points.
• 59:18
  Speaker 2: Vikings are a good defense, though.
• 59:19
  Speaker 5: Yes, the Eagles are also good, so yes, they're going
• 59:22
  Speaker 5: to have to face another good defense here, but the
• 59:24
  Speaker 5: Bears are staying at home.
• 59:25
  Speaker 2: They're coming off about as ugly a loss as possible.
• 59:28
  Speaker 5: They lost as a favorite outright, so that kind of
• 59:31
  Speaker 5: negates the fact that the Eagles had a close call. Although, yes,
• 59:34
  Speaker 5: the Bears, it was a divisional game, so that does
• 59:36
  Speaker 5: make it more intense, like a bigger game. But the
• 59:40
  Speaker 5: thing that puts this over the top in favor of
• 59:42
  Speaker 5: the Bears here is what's in the title here, the
• 59:44
  Speaker 5: injured player theory spot.
• 59:45
  Speaker 2: Caleb Williams is hurt, and... It was fucking stupid, dude.
• 59:49
  Speaker 5: You had a situation where Jackson Dart walked off on
• 59:53
  Speaker 5: his own power and he wanted to get back in
• 59:55
  Speaker 5: the game.
• 59:55
  Speaker 2: And he has a season-ending knee injury.
• 59:59
  Speaker 5: And he wanted to get back out there in that
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 5: game because Jackson Dart is a tough motherfucker. Whereas Caleb
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 5: Williams is... Probably gay and is not tough at all.
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 5: And he had an injury where I think he could
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 5: play this week. I think it's just the Bears have
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 5: to save him from embarrassment. I literally think that's what
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 5: they're doing here. I think they could play him if
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 5: they wanted to. But I think because it would be
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 5: embarrassing if they brought him back out there after the
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 5: way he had to get carted off. He was writhing
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 5: in pain. you know, on the turf and whatever, and
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 5: all he has is, like, a hamstring pull, and it
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 5: looked like it was, like, a season-ending knee injury, like
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 5: darts was, the way that Williams, you know, they reacted
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 5: in totally different, like, the way dart reacted, it looked
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 5: like it could have maybe been a hamstring thing, although
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 5: you kind of knew it was a knee thing, but,
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 5: you know, but the way that Williams reacted, it looked
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 5: like it was a season-ending like knee blowout and instead nope.
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 2: It's just a hamstring strain uh.
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 5: Yeah okay so i think he could be back in
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 5: this game if he wanted to but he's not going
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 5: to be but i don't think williams is a good
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 5: quarterback so i think this is going to help the
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 5: bears for both reasons it's an interplayer theory spots you're
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 5: going to get extra value on the bears and you
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 5: do here the eagles are like a four four and
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 5: a half point favorite here maybe three and a half
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 5: now because The Bears look like it is going to
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 5: be Tyson Bajent in this game. He is their number
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 5: two QB, and I think he's actually good. I think
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 5: he's better than Caleb Williams. Bajent, he hasn't really gotten
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 5: a chance. I'm a fan of him, man. I like him.
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 5: I like his attitude. I think he's a good quarterback.
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 5: I don't even think he's a downgrade from Williams, to
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 5: be honest. And like I always say, I'm going to
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 5: say it again, injured player spot. We have a lot
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 5: of it this week. The team usually steps up their
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 5: level of play in the injured player theory spot because
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 5: they know they have to with the theoretically lesser QB.
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 5: And you get line value on that team. So I
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 5: think we're getting all that here. And by the way,
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 5: Bajan is in concussion protocol because he got knocked out
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 5: of the game last week as well.
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 2: If he's not going to play, it's going to be
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 2: Case Keenum, the.
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 5: very old veteran, but I still am going to lean
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 5: to the.
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 2: Bears, even if it's Case Keenum.
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 5: By the way, Case Keenum of the Minnesota Miracle fame,
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 5: I'm pretty sure that was him way back in the
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 5: day that passed to Stephon Diggs to come back and
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 5: win that game against the Saints after the Vikings blew
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 5: a huge lead. And I was on the money line
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 5: on the Vikings in that game after they blew that
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 5: huge lead. So, yeah, it might be Case Keenum, but
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 5: it looks like Bajent cleared concussion protocol. So I believe
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 5: he had a full practice today. So he's listed as questionable,
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 5: I think, now, but I think it is going to
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 5: be Bajent in this game and not Case Keenum. But
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 5: either way, I'm leaning Bears in this one. Not going
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 5: to be on my card. Well, it's Monday night, so
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 5: we can talk about it on Monday, too. But we
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 5: have 71% of tickets, 64% of the cash on Philly.
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 5: So Philly's the public side with less of the money
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 5: on them. The public, again, they're reacting to what they've
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 5: seen most recently. Chicago's game was way uglier, and the
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 5: public's also going to react to the fact that Williams
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 5: is out. You're getting about 3.5 right now with Chicago
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 5: if you want that.
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 2: It's a low total, too, in the low 40s, so...
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 2: My lean in that game would be the Bears. Zach,
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 2: what's up? Weddings are fun, dude. What are you talking about?
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 2: Go out on the dance floor. That's what I do.
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 2: Rip it on the dance floor, man. What are you
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 2: talking about?
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 5: It was more fun back before I went sober, though,
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 5: because you could get a little alcohol in you and
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 5: then go on the dance floor.
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 2: But I don't know. I have fun at weddings.
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 5: When I was at one of my friend's weddings, after
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 5: their reception ended, there was another reception in the same
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 5: hotel still going, and I crashed that reception. And it
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 5: was a wedding party. I photobombed one of their photos
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 5: earlier in the day, too, although they kind of let
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 5: me do it, but you know. Uh, so they, they're like,
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 5: Oh my God, it's the photo bomb guy. Yeah.
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 2: Cause every, a lot of people were like, who the
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 2: hell is that guy? Random guy out of the dance floor.
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 2: I'm like, yeah, man. Uh, there you go. I was
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 2: dressed for it.
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 5: Cause I just came from the other reception. So I
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 5: still had my suit on. That was a fun night. Um,
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 5: in Rochester, New York is where that was. Um, Caleb,
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 5: he's getting really lucky. Yeah, I mean, I don't know
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 5: what else to tell you. By the way, the Bears'
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 5: defense is ass. So, yes, I don't like the Bears'
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 5: defense at all, and the Eagles are clearly the better defense,
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 5: but you're asking the Eagles to lay a bunch of
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 5: points on the road, so whatever.
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I love Bajan.
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 5: Dude, if Bajan comes out and he does real well
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 5: on Monday night, I think the Bears might have a
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 5: decision to make after Caleb Williams was a huge pussy
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 5: on the field the week before that. If Bajan comes
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 5: out and he beats the Eagles or something, he should
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 5: be the starter.
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 2: I'm not kidding. Fuck Williams. Maybe it'll happen. The NFL
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 2: is very fickle. Well, thank you.
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 5: You're going to Rochester. Your grandparents live there. That was
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 5: where my friend, shout out to Andy, that was where
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 5: his wedding took place. took place. I, he had some
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 5: ties to, uh, that area, uh, still does. Um, I think,
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 5: I think it's where his wife is from as well. He's,
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 5: he's from my town initially, uh, originally, but I think
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 5: his wife is from, uh, the Rochester area, which makes sense. Uh,
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 5: you know, you have the, the wedding close to the
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 5: wife's family. It's what you got to do, man. Uh,
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 5: but I think he was out there at the time
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 5: as well, at least if I remember correctly, I forget.
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 2: Um, yeah. Um, fun time. We went to dinosaur bar.
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 2: Is it dinosaur barbecue?
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 5: Uh, I got out there a day early with my friends, uh,
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 5: brother and sister, and we went to dinosaur BBQ, um,
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 5: when we were out there day early. Yeah, that was,
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 5: that was pretty good. Um, yeah, it's, it's upstate New
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 5: York is better than New York city.
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 2: I've been to New York city a few times as well.
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 5: And, uh, yeah, you know, um, I did get to
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 5: go up to the top of the Twin Towers, though,
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 5: back when I was a kid, so I was really
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 5: into skyscrapers, so my mom took me and my dad
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 5: didn't even want to go. It was me, my mom,
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 5: my grandmother, my mom's mom, and my sister, we all
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 5: went to New York when I was a kid just
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 5: so we could see the sights, see the skyscrapers specifically.
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 5: We went up the Empire State Building and onto the
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 5: roof of the Twin Towers, the South Tower, where Kevin
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 5: McAllister is in Home Alone 2, if you remember what
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 5: I mean.
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 2: I was up there.
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 5: Crazy that, you know, like five or six years later,
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 5: those things are gone, man.
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 2: I hate it. It made me very, very upset at
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 2: the time. Yeah, right.
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 5: Yeah, George Bush, senior and W, both of them, H-W
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 5: and W is actually how they prefer to be. They're
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 5: not senior and junior because one's H-W, the other's W.
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 5: That's going to do it. My plays for tomorrow are
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 5: the Chargers plus seven, or you might be able to
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 5: find seven and a half when it's all said and done.
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 5: Nobody's going to like these plays, man, but this is
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 5: what we do in the NFL.
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 2: The NFL is the.
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 5: Most publicly bet Sports, he's got to be contrarian.
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 2: Chargers plus seven.
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 5: Washington Redskins plus eight in the double injured player spot there.
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 2: And Tampa Bay plus one and a half.
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 5: All three teams are taking their 0-2. 0-2 teams in
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 5: week three usually have a max effort game as well.
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 2: So that's what we're hoping for with these three plays.
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 5: And I like Houston as well. Houston almost made the
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 5: cut for me. They're also 0-2, but they're facing an
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 5: 0-2 team. Close, really close to being a play. I
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 5: do like Houston if I was to add another play here.
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 5: So that's going to do it. Learn to tone on Twitter.
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 5: Learn to tone on Instagram. Like, subscribe to the channel here.
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 5: You'll get notified when I go live. We'll have some
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 5: baseball postseason preview content probably starting tomorrow night maybe, although
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 5: I'm going to be out tomorrow.
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 2: Night, so we'll see.
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 5: Going to a Weezer show I'm pretty sure is what
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 5: I have tomorrow. The weather better be better. Today was
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 5: Nor'easter shit all over the place. It was crazy winds.
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 5: Didn't lose power, at least. But trees, you know, getting
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 5: blown in the wind and a lot of flooding closer
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 5: to the coast.
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 2: I'm not close enough to.
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 5: The ocean to get the flooding, and neither are my parents,
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 5: but we're all in coastal towns, though, so we're pretty
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 5: close to the ocean, just not quite close enough for
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 5: the flooding. Um.
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 2: What else do we have to promote here? We're on audio, Apple, Spotify, Spreaker.
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 5: Check that out. That all helps me out as well.
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 5: The number spiked the other day, so I'm hoping that continues.
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 5: I don't know what caused that massive spike, but love
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 5: to see that continue. Maybe if my NFL plays are good,
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 5: that'll happen. I think my reads are pretty good. I'm
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 5: doing well in my overall pick-em so far. I think
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 5: I'm 20, what am I, 20 and.
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 2: How many games have been played so far? I got
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 2: the Thursday night game right, too. I'm Mr. Thursday night.
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 2: You know who's Mr. Thursday night?
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 5: Kevin Stefanski. I forgot to point that out. He's the
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 5: coach of the Falcons now. Going into that Thursday night game, Stefanski,
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 5: including that game now, is sick. 6-0 on Thursday night
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 5: games he was 5-0 with the Browns on Thursday night
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 5: games I don't know I think he's a terrible coach
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 5: but for whatever reason he wins on Thursday night Thursday
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 5: night every single time he's Mr. Thursday night um all
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 5: right where was I going with all this Covered in
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 5: uke on YouTube. You can check that out. Patreon.com slash
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 5: learn to toad. Check that out, too. Loser cast every
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 5: Tuesday in New York Giants G-Spot podcast, which may be
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 5: defunct along with Jackson Dart's knee.
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 2: I don't know, man.
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 5: Harbaugh made a hilarious comment, though. He said that Dart
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 5: might be available for the playoffs. I'm like, dude, are
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 5: you seriously thinking you're going to make the playoffs? You know,
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 5: that does warrant this. Yeah.
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 2: Playoffs? Don't talk about it. Playoffs?
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 1: You kidding me?
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 2: Playoffs? I just hope we can win a game. Another game.
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 2: That's what.
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 5: Yeah, people should be playing that for Harbaugh this whole
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 5: time and for John Harbaugh. We're going to back Jim
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 5: Harbaugh this week, though. And I actually like both Harbaugh
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 5: teams this week, so there you go. I like.
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 2: The Chargers better than the Giants this week, yes. Thank you, everybody.
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 5: I thought I was going to say one other thing,
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 5: but I guess not. What was I even saying?
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 3: I don't know.
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 2: I went on that Stefanski tangent, the Stefangent. I don't know.
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 2: I forget what I was going to say.
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 5: Yeah, on audio, Apple, Spotify, Spreaker, those numbers are getting interesting,
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 5: so let's hope that continues. I'm going to see if
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 5: I can get Clint on for bald, assuming that both
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 5: of our teams are going to be in the– postseason here,
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 5: we will see. But I didn't see anything about what
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 5: happened with baseball today.
• 1:10:42
  Speaker 2: But we'll see. That's going to do it for now, though.
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 3: Peace.
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 1: If the dark starts talking, hand me the phone.
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 2: Let somebody answer.
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 1: Let somebody know.
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 3: You do not have to lose this round alone. Hold on,
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 3: not tonight, not now. Hold on, hold.
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 2: On, let me.
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 3: Pull you out.
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 4: That bad luck bites hard, but it don't get the crown.
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 3: Hold on. Hold on, stay with me now Hold on,
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 3: hold on You're still here now