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Week 1 2026 College Football Picks: The Next 15 Games · Winning Cures Everything | College Football

0:00
Speaker 1: You know I can't just talk about 10 football games.
0:03
Speaker 1: So each week we're going to do another podcast that's
0:06
Speaker 1: called The Next 15. And this is where we discuss
0:10
Speaker 1: the next 15 best games. We're going to talk about
0:12
Speaker 1: at least 25 games each week of the 2026 season.
0:17
Speaker 1: And for week one, that's exactly what this is, The
0:19
Speaker 1: Next 15. The Next 15 Welcome in, Winning Cures Everything.
0:26
Speaker 1: It's a college football podcast. I am your host, Gary Seegers,
0:29
Speaker 1: at GaryWCE on all the different socials. Hopefully, you are
0:33
Speaker 1: having a wonderful, I guess this will be on Tuesday
0:36
Speaker 1: this week, a wonderful Tuesday, wherever you might be. Good gracious. Hopefully,
0:41
Speaker 1: all of you watched V-CIN with me and Dustin on
0:44
Speaker 1: Monday night. Hopefully, you checked out the 10 best games
0:48
Speaker 1: of week one. video that i put out on monday
0:50
Speaker 1: did great numbers certainly appreciate all of you if you
0:53
Speaker 1: have not already hit that subscribe button hit the like
0:55
Speaker 1: button and of course jump in the comments and tell
0:58
Speaker 1: me your thoughts on these games because uh i'm curious
1:01
Speaker 1: now week one is going to be a little bit
1:03
Speaker 1: different because a lot of the edges have already been
1:05
Speaker 1: taken right and there is a lot of line movement
1:08
Speaker 1: and whatnot we'll talk about some of that but uh
1:10
Speaker 1: it's hard to find exactly what the edges are going
1:13
Speaker 1: to be because these lines have been up for three
1:15
Speaker 1: months I mean, it's been a very long time for
1:18
Speaker 1: a lot of these games. So we're not going to
1:20
Speaker 1: waste a lot of time. Let's go ahead and get
1:23
Speaker 1: to it. Game number one, this one on Saturday, of course,
1:27
Speaker 1: September 5th at 2.30 p.m. Central Time, God's Time Zone
1:30
Speaker 1: on Fox. It's Boston College at Cincinnati. Of course, Nippert Stadium, legendary. Absolutely.
1:38
Speaker 1: Cincy is a 7.5 point favorite currently. Total of 51.5.
1:41
Speaker 1: It opened... at nine and a half, you got two
1:45
Speaker 1: points swinging back towards BC. Uh, I'm curious. I'm very
1:51
Speaker 1: curious because when you look at these rosters, uh, there
1:55
Speaker 1: are certainly position groups that since he has a sizable
1:57
Speaker 1: advantage along with home field. So, um, Bill O'Brien, Boston
2:02
Speaker 1: college head coach coming off of a two and 10
2:04
Speaker 1: season has a 26 man transfer portal class Satterfield for Cincinnati.
2:09
Speaker 1: Absolutely on the hot seat this year. Um, Both seasons
2:14
Speaker 1: probably going to be effectively decided by Halloween. I mean,
2:18
Speaker 1: this is a pretty important data point for both of
2:20
Speaker 1: these guys. So BC 6-6 against the spread last year,
2:24
Speaker 1: despite going 2-10 straight up. They were at least somewhat competitive,
2:29
Speaker 1: but they did have some rather inflated numbers towards the
2:32
Speaker 1: end of the year. And if you look at it,
2:35
Speaker 1: Boston College, I mean, it wasn't necessarily the Bill O'Brien's
2:37
Speaker 1: offense didn't work. I mean, they went fast. They were
2:41
Speaker 1: number 29 in the country, if you look at it.
2:43
Speaker 1: number 29 in the country in time per play on offense.
2:47
Speaker 1: So they were moving. They couldn't stop anybody. I mean,
2:51
Speaker 1: it was a whole thing. So let's see. Since he
2:56
Speaker 1: was 5-2 at Nippert last year, 2-2 away, 2-2 non-con,
3:01
Speaker 1: Boston College 1-6 at home, 1-4 on the road. They
3:03
Speaker 1: just didn't win anywhere. No major injuries, no nothing like that.
3:08
Speaker 1: This is one of those where if it goes the
3:11
Speaker 1: way that I think it's going to go, we're going
3:14
Speaker 1: to be wondering, why was this only a touchdown? I
3:17
Speaker 1: don't think Boston College has a very good roster. Since
3:21
Speaker 1: he's offensive line, number 28 unit in the country, based
3:25
Speaker 1: on experience and recruiting rankings, etc. etc. BC's defensive line,
3:30
Speaker 1: number 63. That's pretty low for power forward school. However,
3:34
Speaker 1: since he's defensive line is real, real low. Now, they
3:39
Speaker 1: got some young dudes. We're going to see exactly what
3:41
Speaker 1: they look like. But BC has an advantage with their
3:45
Speaker 1: offensive line, number 66, against number 116. I'm interested. I
3:51
Speaker 1: want to see what it's going to look like. I
3:53
Speaker 1: think Cincy, with the quarterback advantage, with the offensive line advantage,
3:57
Speaker 1: with the skill advantage, I think Cincy is going to
4:01
Speaker 1: be able to put up some numbers here because I
4:03
Speaker 1: don't trust Boston College's defense at all. I think Cincinnati's
4:07
Speaker 1: offense is going to move pretty well here. I don't
4:10
Speaker 1: know that I necessarily trust Boston College to. If that's
4:15
Speaker 1: the situation, the fact that this thing has come back
4:16
Speaker 1: down to 7.5, I mean, there's some, it's some sharp
4:19
Speaker 1: people that are on Boston College when this thing was
4:22
Speaker 1: sitting at 9.5. But at 7.5, and looking at it, yeah,
4:29
Speaker 1: I mean, it had moved. Has not moved. So that's
4:32
Speaker 1: what I've been trying to figure out is like, is
4:33
Speaker 1: this thing ever going to hit 7? Because if it
4:35
Speaker 1: hits 7, that might be an actual play for me.
4:38
Speaker 1: But as far as the show goes, I will roll
4:41
Speaker 1: with Cincinnati minus 7.5 in this game. Game number two.
4:46
Speaker 1: And this one, another 2.30 p.m. Central Time game. God's
4:49
Speaker 1: time zone. This one on the ACC Network. Tulane goes
4:52
Speaker 1: over to Wallace Wade Stadium to take on the Duke
4:54
Speaker 1: Blue Devils. Duke currently a 7.5 point favorite. This is
4:58
Speaker 1: another one of those that opened at 9.5. Two more
5:01
Speaker 1: points going back towards the opposing team. The away team.
5:07
Speaker 1: And the green wave. New coach Will Hall. Major overhaul here, right?
5:12
Speaker 1: Summerall went to Florida and they lost a lot of seniors.
5:18
Speaker 1: They lost some of their best players to the portal.
5:21
Speaker 1: I mean, it was just a lot of everything. This
5:24
Speaker 1: is a rematch that's got some real history here. Tulane
5:27
Speaker 1: did beat Duke last year in 2025. Duke went on
5:30
Speaker 1: and won the ACC. They won the championship. Didn't make
5:34
Speaker 1: the playoff. Tulane did win the playoff. Ended up 11-3.
5:37
Speaker 1: They were the number 11 seed. That head-to-head loss to
5:40
Speaker 1: Tulane is part of why Duke got left out. The
5:45
Speaker 1: Starbucks-Totals collision on the board here, I think Tulane was
5:48
Speaker 1: 4-10 to the under last year. Duke was 10-4 to
5:51
Speaker 1: the over. Obviously, both of these teams are incredibly different
5:55
Speaker 1: this year than they were last year. Both of them
5:57
Speaker 1: went 7-7 against the spread last season, so no real
6:02
Speaker 1: systemic cover to fade with this. Home away, Tulane was
6:06
Speaker 1: 7-0 straight up at home. They went just 4-3 on
6:09
Speaker 1: the road last year, and this is a road game.
6:12
Speaker 1: Duke somehow were better on the road last year than
6:16
Speaker 1: they were at home. They were just 3-3, but they
6:18
Speaker 1: were 4-2 on the road. No major injuries, no anything
6:22
Speaker 1: major with this. The roster advantage certainly goes to Duke.
6:27
Speaker 1: Number 42 in on three's full roster talent. Number 68
6:31
Speaker 1: for Tulane. I... Don't know what to make of the
6:37
Speaker 1: coordinator hires, Russ Calloway, Taylor Polk, for Will Hall. And
6:42
Speaker 1: I don't know about the hire of Will Hall. He
6:45
Speaker 1: did not do good things at Southern Miss. Now, obviously,
6:49
Speaker 1: he has done big things in his career, but he
6:53
Speaker 1: did not do them at Southern Miss. And we can
6:55
Speaker 1: blame a lot of that on injuries, etc. He was
6:57
Speaker 1: good as the offensive coordinator for Tulane last year. Tulane
7:00
Speaker 1: may have just gotten tired of coaches leaving them. But
7:05
Speaker 1: that's the name of the game, right? Sumrall was only
7:07
Speaker 1: there for two years, and then he got moved over
7:09
Speaker 1: to the Florida job. But they hired him away from Detroit.
7:13
Speaker 1: He was only there for two years. I look at this,
7:17
Speaker 1: I think the offense for Duke is going to be
7:19
Speaker 1: pretty good. It depends on what Walker Eget does, San
7:24
Speaker 1: Jose State transfer. They kind of got left at the
7:27
Speaker 1: altar by Darion Mensah. But I still think the offense
7:30
Speaker 1: is going to be okay. I think they'll be fine.
7:33
Speaker 1: I'm curious about Tulane. I don't know about their offense.
7:37
Speaker 1: And their defense lost so many guys. Just a major
7:44
Speaker 1: advantage for Duke's offensive line going up against this defensive line.
7:47
Speaker 1: I think they're going to be able to run the
7:48
Speaker 1: ball almost at will here. I don't know where the
7:56
Speaker 1: Tulane love is coming from. It almost makes me think
7:59
Speaker 1: that people are setting up bigger plays for later in
8:01
Speaker 1: the week. So you put a little bit of money
8:03
Speaker 1: in on Tulane. if you're some really sharp people, especially
8:07
Speaker 1: in Week 1, and then you buy back later in
8:09
Speaker 1: the week at a higher price when you've got the
8:11
Speaker 1: line lower. But this thing didn't get below a touchdown.
8:15
Speaker 1: I don't feel great about it Week 1. I never
8:19
Speaker 1: feel good about it because we know next to nothing
8:22
Speaker 1: about these teams at this point. But I'll take Duke
8:25
Speaker 1: at home, minus 7.5. I think they win this by
8:28
Speaker 1: double digits. My model has them by 10.2. I'll side
8:32
Speaker 1: with the model. Give me the Blue Devils, minus 7.5.
8:36
Speaker 1: Game number three, we're going to Tuscaloosa, Alabama. This one
8:39
Speaker 1: on ABC at 11 a.m. Central Time, God's time zone.
8:43
Speaker 1: Bryant-Denny Stadium. Alabama likes to cover a lot in Bryant-Denny Stadium.
8:50
Speaker 1: This one opened at 25.5. It jumped out to 28.5,
8:53
Speaker 1: and currently we are sitting at 28 with a total
8:56
Speaker 1: of 52.5 on it. So a little bit of buyback
8:59
Speaker 1: on East Carolina. Not a ton, but there was a
9:03
Speaker 1: lot of Bama love in the market. and I guess
9:05
Speaker 1: it was right after Keelan Russell got announced as the quarterback,
9:09
Speaker 1: or it might have started before that, news that came
9:13
Speaker 1: out today, I believe it was today, recording this on
9:17
Speaker 1: Monday night, August 31st, EJ Crowell, the five-star running back,
9:25
Speaker 1: looked like he was going to be out for several games.
9:27
Speaker 1: Ryan Grubb, the offensive coordinator, came out and told everybody that, yeah,
9:31
Speaker 1: we expect him to play on Saturday. That's interesting. A.K.
9:34
Speaker 1: Deer is going to be out for several weeks, lower
9:38
Speaker 1: body injury. This is the first opening game where Alabama
9:47
Speaker 1: has not been preseason ranked in the top 10 since 2008.
9:50
Speaker 1: The last time that they did that in 08, they
9:55
Speaker 1: were an underdog to Clemson in Atlanta, RIP the Georgia. Dome,
10:01
Speaker 1: and beat them 34-10. Clemson was number 8 in the
10:04
Speaker 1: country at that point. Thus ending the career of one
10:09
Speaker 1: Tommy Bowden, if anybody remembers that. But either way, Alabama
10:12
Speaker 1: went under in 10 of their 15 games last year.
10:16
Speaker 1: Super under-heavy profile 28.5 spread, 53.5 total. I mean, the
10:23
Speaker 1: under has a case here, but you start looking at
10:26
Speaker 1: offensive time per play that East Carolina likes to run with. Now,
10:29
Speaker 1: this might change because they don't have Caden Houser at
10:31
Speaker 1: quarterback anymore, etc. Their roster kind of got depleted for
10:35
Speaker 1: Blake Harrell. They are using a new offensive coordinator, Jordan Davis,
10:43
Speaker 1: because John David Baker is now at Ole Miss. So
10:46
Speaker 1: Caden Houser's gone. Baker's gone. Curious what this is going
10:51
Speaker 1: to look like. The roster, massive difference in roster. Alabama
10:56
Speaker 1: number three in the country, and on three, full roster talent.
11:00
Speaker 1: East Carolina is number 80. Bama went nine and six
11:04
Speaker 1: against the spread. Last year, six and one at home,
11:07
Speaker 1: five and one on the road, only four and three
11:09
Speaker 1: straight up in non-conference. They lost non-league games last year.
11:14
Speaker 1: It's not four and three. I don't know why I
11:17
Speaker 1: write some of these notes this way. They lost... Some
11:22
Speaker 1: non-league games last year, they didn't lose to G6 teams.
11:26
Speaker 1: The Florida State opener, etc. East Carolina was 8-5 against
11:29
Speaker 1: the spread last year. Bama does cover at home. That's
11:34
Speaker 1: just kind of been a thing. Kalen DeBoer tends to
11:37
Speaker 1: pour on the gas and has a history of letting
11:41
Speaker 1: his second-teamers and third-teamers actually play. That's a good thing.
11:47
Speaker 1: My model has this at Alabama minus 26. Bama has
11:53
Speaker 1: Kentucky in week two, Florida State in week three, at,
11:58
Speaker 1: or no, sorry, South Carolina in week four, at Mississippi
12:00
Speaker 1: State in week five, and then Georgia in week six.
12:04
Speaker 1: So it would be a much bigger statement for East
12:09
Speaker 1: Carolina than it is for Alabama. I don't feel great
12:15
Speaker 1: about either way because this is, Alabama can pick their number.
12:19
Speaker 1: Do they care about blowing this team out? Probably not.
12:23
Speaker 1: I do expect a lot of points, at least from
12:26
Speaker 1: the Alabama side. The question is, does the defense for
12:30
Speaker 1: Alabama allow East Carolina to score late in the ballgame? So,
12:35
Speaker 1: what I would roll with is Bama first half. But,
12:40
Speaker 1: still sitting at 28, I'll take back a little bit
12:43
Speaker 1: of that East Carolina love. I'll roll with the Pirates,
12:47
Speaker 1: plus 28 here, because I'd I believe that they can
12:53
Speaker 1: hang around in this thing late. I think they can
12:55
Speaker 1: score late. I don't think this game matters at all
13:00
Speaker 1: to Alabama. At all. So, give me the Pirates plus
13:05
Speaker 1: 28 for the full game. For game number four, we
13:08
Speaker 1: got Friday Night Lights. That's right. Fresno State going to USC. And, whew,
13:13
Speaker 1: the Coliseum was empty on Saturday. And, I mean, you
13:17
Speaker 1: can't really blame them, right? Can't blame them. This one's
13:20
Speaker 1: going to be on Fox. USC currently a 22.5 point favorite. Offshores,
13:26
Speaker 1: a couple of them have 21.5. Total of 51.5 on this.
13:30
Speaker 1: This thing opened at 23.5. And, I mean, this is,
13:34
Speaker 1: we talked about this last week. It's a make or
13:35
Speaker 1: break year for Lincoln Riley. USC did already play last
13:38
Speaker 1: week against San Jose State. Already mentioned that. Went out
13:41
Speaker 1: to a 35-3 lead. Completely pulled their foot off the gas.
13:47
Speaker 1: Completely pulled their foot off the gas. I mean, it
13:49
Speaker 1: was not even close. I don't know what to make
13:55
Speaker 1: of them giving up 23 points in the fourth quarter
13:58
Speaker 1: and only scoring seven, other than the fact that they
14:01
Speaker 1: just did not care at all. The question here is,
14:05
Speaker 1: do they care here? I don't know that. Fresno State,
14:10
Speaker 1: I think, is alive to win the Pac-12. I think
14:14
Speaker 1: they can win the Pac-12. I don't know. At the
14:18
Speaker 1: quarterback room, there's not a lot of depth back there.
14:22
Speaker 1: the roster isn't great. They're number 110 in on three
14:25
Speaker 1: full roster talent. USC is number 10 in that department.
14:30
Speaker 1: They are, I mean, they have a sizable advantage at
14:33
Speaker 1: the line of scrimmage. They can do basically whatever they want.
14:36
Speaker 1: This feels very much like what last week was. USC
14:42
Speaker 1: first half, Fresno full game. My number, however, has USC
14:49
Speaker 1: minus 25. Does USC use that fourth quarter that was
14:54
Speaker 1: fairly embarrassing for them? Do they use that as motivation
14:59
Speaker 1: this week? You know, they've still got another also-ran next week.
15:03
Speaker 1: That's no offense to whoever they play next week. I'm
15:05
Speaker 1: just saying they don't play anybody until they play Oregon.
15:07
Speaker 1: So I'm curious. Like, what exactly is the motivation? Because
15:12
Speaker 1: that's what you're betting on here. Do they come out,
15:15
Speaker 1: keep their foot on the gas? I... I tend to
15:20
Speaker 1: think that Fresno State and Matt Ince can slow this
15:22
Speaker 1: thing down. Their time per play was 109. USC, number
15:27
Speaker 1: 78 last year. It's a long season now. You are
15:32
Speaker 1: planning to play a lot of games, so you may
15:35
Speaker 1: not play as many snaps. If you don't play as
15:36
Speaker 1: many snaps, that's more chance for the underdog to maybe
15:42
Speaker 1: create a little chaos. So, I don't feel great about it, but...
15:52
Speaker 1: I can't do it. I can't do it. I can't
15:54
Speaker 1: bet the dog here. We have seen Lincoln Riley do
15:58
Speaker 1: this over and over and over again. USC, only 5-8
16:01
Speaker 1: against the spread last year. They do win at home.
16:05
Speaker 1: They typically don't cover at home. But they do in
16:09
Speaker 1: G5 games, or G6 games. I guess that's what we've
16:11
Speaker 1: got to call it now. Their center, I mentioned this
16:14
Speaker 1: last week, he's out for the season. Knee injury, non-contact, etc.
16:18
Speaker 1: Tobias Raymond starts the center. Interior line continuity. I mean,
16:24
Speaker 1: they looked fine early last week, but that was against
16:26
Speaker 1: San Jose State. Fresno, a little bit different deal. A
16:29
Speaker 1: little bit different deal. Fresno was 4-2 on the road,
16:32
Speaker 1: 4-1 non-conference straight up. They beat Boise by 23 last year.
16:36
Speaker 1: Now granted, that was an injury-depleted, weird Boise team. So,
16:41
Speaker 1: something to pay attention to, but I tend to think
16:47
Speaker 1: that USC is going to look at what happened last
16:48
Speaker 1: week and come out and fix those problems. So, Give
16:52
Speaker 1: me USC. Best number I can get right now is 21.5.
16:57
Speaker 1: I'll lay it. USC minus 21.5 at home against Fresno.
17:02
Speaker 1: Game number five, we've got a Lone Star State showdown here.
17:05
Speaker 1: Texas State going to Texas, 2.30 p.m. Central Time, God's
17:08
Speaker 1: Time Zone, ESPN. This one, of course, on Saturday. Texas
17:13
Speaker 1: favored by 30.5. It has come down a little bit.
17:16
Speaker 1: There are a couple of 29.5s out there right now.
17:18
Speaker 1: Total was 60.5. It's come down to 59.5. G.J. Kinney
17:26
Speaker 1: would love nothing more than to be able to hang
17:29
Speaker 1: in there against Texas, and this is a look-ahead spot
17:32
Speaker 1: if I have ever seen one because Texas really wants
17:35
Speaker 1: to get that game against Ohio State next week. It's
17:38
Speaker 1: in prime time. College game day is going to be there.
17:40
Speaker 1: It's a huge, huge thing. Arch Manning, Heisman favorite. We
17:45
Speaker 1: all know what the deal is there. Texas State is
17:47
Speaker 1: now a Pac-12 member, and the roster talent for Texas
17:52
Speaker 1: State is surprisingly good. Number 76 in the country. Now,
17:57
Speaker 1: there is no part on the field where they line
18:01
Speaker 1: up and have any kind of an advantage or are
18:06
Speaker 1: even in the same hemisphere as the Texas athletes. Texas
18:10
Speaker 1: is top 10, top 5 in most, but top 10
18:13
Speaker 1: in every position unit. The best units for Texas State
18:18
Speaker 1: is quarterback number 60 and linebackers number 60. That's it.
18:24
Speaker 1: It's not even close. Left tackle, Trevor Goosby. It's to
18:31
Speaker 1: be determined, but he's trending towards playing. He had a
18:33
Speaker 1: bone bruise. MRI was absolutely a relief. It looks like
18:38
Speaker 1: offensive line is going to be just fine. They will
18:41
Speaker 1: have a huge advantage here. High total, likely early substitutions.
18:48
Speaker 1: First half team totals may be more interesting than full game.
18:52
Speaker 1: My number on this has Texas minus 35.3. There was
18:57
Speaker 1: some Texas State love that got this thing back down
18:59
Speaker 1: to 29.5. And that's probably because of the schedule spot.
19:04
Speaker 1: Because why would Texas care anything about this game? I mean,
19:10
Speaker 1: I wouldn't. Will Muschamp's first game as defense coordinator, he
19:15
Speaker 1: is a very aggressive play caller. He wants turnovers. I
19:21
Speaker 1: would expect that with the offensive line for Texas State
19:24
Speaker 1: at number 80 and Texas' defensive line number 2, we'll
19:29
Speaker 1: probably see them affecting the quarterback quite a bit. I
19:34
Speaker 1: think that Texas would normally get there. But I also
19:43
Speaker 1: think Texas State can put some points on the board,
19:45
Speaker 1: especially late. This is another one of those where, bet
19:47
Speaker 1: the first half, bet Texas State second half or Texas
19:52
Speaker 1: State full game, something like that. But this has the
19:56
Speaker 1: potential to be 35-0 at the half, and then we'll
19:58
Speaker 1: just see what happens. So again, these are more guesses.
20:04
Speaker 1: With it being a look-ahead spot and them being really
20:06
Speaker 1: ready for Ohio State, I don't think they're going to
20:09
Speaker 1: run it up here. I don't think there's any kind
20:10
Speaker 1: of animosity between Steve Sarkeesian and G.J. Kinney. So I
20:15
Speaker 1: think that Kinney is going to be able to put
20:16
Speaker 1: at least a few, we'll say 17 points on the board.
20:21
Speaker 1: So if this thing is, let's say they put 20 up,
20:26
Speaker 1: 49 to 20. That's Texas State cover. I don't feel
20:33
Speaker 1: great about it if they only put 17 up. You
20:35
Speaker 1: give a defensive scorer I mean, there's so many different
20:37
Speaker 1: ways I could see this thing going. I will take
20:42
Speaker 1: Texas State, plus the best number I can get is 30.5.
20:46
Speaker 1: Give me Texas State plus 30.5 here. Want extra Winning
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Speaker 1: and make sure and hit that subscribe button for me.
21:23
Speaker 1: Game number six, we're moving to Sunday, 3 p.m. Central Time.
21:27
Speaker 1: This one on NBC, and this is the Apple Cup.
21:30
Speaker 1: And it is a week one Apple Cup, which is... Weird. Really,
21:35
Speaker 1: really weird. We got a brand new Washington State head coach,
21:37
Speaker 1: Kirby Moore, who was the offensive coordinator at Missouri last year.
21:41
Speaker 1: And a depleted roster. I mean, just not good. Their
21:47
Speaker 1: defensive coordinator is Trent Bray. He was the head coach
21:51
Speaker 1: at Oregon State. Did not do well there, but he
21:53
Speaker 1: was great as a defensive coordinator there. Is what it is,
21:57
Speaker 1: I suppose. So, Wynn got him. Caden Pinnock is the
22:01
Speaker 1: quarterback for Washington State. I'm interested, FCS guy, but we
22:08
Speaker 1: have not seen him, especially against a team like this.
22:11
Speaker 1: The spread on this, by the way, Washington favored by 23.5.
22:13
Speaker 1: It opened at 21.5. My number has it Washington minus 21.7.
22:20
Speaker 1: There is a world where Washington just blows the doors
22:23
Speaker 1: off of them. I don't know if I like that world.
22:28
Speaker 1: I don't want it to be... I want this to
22:30
Speaker 1: be a good, meaningful game. But even when these two
22:32
Speaker 1: were equals... Washington was still awesome. Ryan Walters, great defensive coordinator.
22:39
Speaker 1: Used to be at Purdue, and then he moved over
22:42
Speaker 1: to be the head coach. Sorry, he was the head
22:45
Speaker 1: coach at Purdue. He was the defensive coordinator at Illinois.
22:48
Speaker 1: Was not great as a head coach, great as a
22:50
Speaker 1: defensive coordinator, though. Absolutely great. Washington State, this one, it's
22:56
Speaker 1: in Husky Stadium. Washington has been really, really good at home,
23:01
Speaker 1: but that's mostly against teams that are traveling out west.
23:05
Speaker 1: no big injuries, unresolved quarterback for Washington state, new coach,
23:10
Speaker 1: road opener rivalry, uh, 23 and a half is pretty
23:16
Speaker 1: aggressive for a game like this. Let me, let me
23:20
Speaker 1: confirm that this is still 23 and a half from
23:23
Speaker 1: what I wrote down earlier. Yeah. 23 and a half everywhere,
23:26
Speaker 1: total 50 and a half and 51 and a half
23:29
Speaker 1: and a couple of different spots. So total kind of
23:31
Speaker 1: bouncing around here. You look at the rosters, uh, Washington State,
23:35
Speaker 1: number 66, and on three, full roster talent. Not a
23:39
Speaker 1: lot of experience, though. And let me take that back.
23:42
Speaker 1: Not a lot of FBS experience. I kind of trust
23:46
Speaker 1: Kirby Moore to be able to put up some points.
23:49
Speaker 1: And this is another one of those games where, what
23:52
Speaker 1: does this really mean for Washington? I don't know. I
23:56
Speaker 1: don't think it's a huge game for them anymore. But
24:00
Speaker 1: I think it's a massive game for Washington State. They
24:03
Speaker 1: won this thing in Seattle two years ago And, I mean,
24:06
Speaker 1: you would have thought they won the Super Bowl. It
24:08
Speaker 1: was a huge thing. And then, of course, the coach
24:11
Speaker 1: left and went to Wake Forest. But it is what
24:13
Speaker 1: it is. I am most intrigued, not by DeMond Williams here,
24:18
Speaker 1: but by his skill talent to see how they're going
24:20
Speaker 1: to replace Denzel, Boston, etc. But I'm really curious what
24:26
Speaker 1: Caden Pinnock is going to look like. I feel like
24:29
Speaker 1: there's some good stuff going on there. I'm going to
24:32
Speaker 1: go with the Dawg. Especially in a rivalry game in
24:35
Speaker 1: week one where it doesn't mean a whole lot for
24:38
Speaker 1: the home favorite. Why not? Kirby Moore's first game as
24:42
Speaker 1: head coach. Kind of feels like a fool's errand, but
24:45
Speaker 1: everybody here should know by now that I love taking dogs.
24:49
Speaker 1: I'll go with this one. I don't think there's any
24:50
Speaker 1: chance they win the game, but I think they can
24:53
Speaker 1: keep it within 23.5. I will side with the model
24:55
Speaker 1: here who's got a 21.7. Give me the Cougs, Washington State,
25:00
Speaker 1: plus 23.5. Game number seven, 1130 a.m. Central Time on
25:06
Speaker 1: the CW in Accresher Stadium. Pitt is a 16.5 point favorite,
25:11
Speaker 1: total of 50.5. There's been basically no movement on this.
25:16
Speaker 1: It opened at 16.5. It went down to 15.5. It
25:21
Speaker 1: got back up. I think there's been some different spots
25:25
Speaker 1: that have had it at like 14.5 and whatnot. I
25:32
Speaker 1: love Chuck Martin. Miami's head coach. He is fantastic against
25:37
Speaker 1: MAAC teams. The defense at Miami of Ohio always ends
25:40
Speaker 1: up being good regardless of the fact that they have
25:42
Speaker 1: basically no talent. Number 104 in full talent, in full
25:47
Speaker 1: roster talent. You look at their defensive line, number 100.
25:53
Speaker 1: The linebackers are always pretty good for them, but their
25:58
Speaker 1: offense is missing a lot. They're Their starting quarterback is out.
26:08
Speaker 1: I don't know what to make of this team. I
26:11
Speaker 1: do know Pitt, even though they did lose some of
26:14
Speaker 1: their better players, Mason Heinschel is awesome. He's fantastic. That
26:19
Speaker 1: offense really clicks. Cade Bell has been doing amazing things,
26:22
Speaker 1: and they move quickly now. Number 32 in the country
26:25
Speaker 1: last year in offensive time per play. They are fast.
26:30
Speaker 1: With Heinschel at quarterback... Against lesser opponents, they can put
26:34
Speaker 1: up some numbers. They absolutely can put up some numbers.
26:37
Speaker 1: So I would fully expect them to be able to
26:39
Speaker 1: do things here. Huge advantage for their offensive line against
26:42
Speaker 1: Miami's defensive line. My model has it Pitt minus 15.5.
26:48
Speaker 1: I'm looking at the number. Yeah, it's still 16.5. As
26:55
Speaker 1: long as this thing stays under 17, I feel pretty
26:57
Speaker 1: good about Pitt. I know I'm going against my model here.
27:01
Speaker 1: is what it is. I mean, Pitt ended flat last year,
27:08
Speaker 1: but I feel good about them here. Like, I ride
27:13
Speaker 1: with the Nard Dog. So, on this one, I like
27:17
Speaker 1: Cade Bell. I like what he can do against this
27:19
Speaker 1: defense because there is a massive advantage. So, Pitt, minus 16.5
27:24
Speaker 1: for me. Game number eight, Saturday night game on NBC
27:30
Speaker 1: Michigan hosting Western Michigan. This one at 6.30 p.m. Central Time,
27:34
Speaker 1: God's time zone inside Michigan Stadium, the big house, if
27:37
Speaker 1: you will. Kyle Whittingham's first game at the helm. And
27:41
Speaker 1: Lance Taylor did awesome stuff of Western Michigan last year.
27:45
Speaker 1: Awesome stuff. They were great. I don't know that that's
27:49
Speaker 1: going to be the case this year. Number 115 in
27:53
Speaker 1: on three full roster talent. Michigan is number 12 in
27:56
Speaker 1: that department. And you want to talk about huge advantages
28:00
Speaker 1: at the line of scrimmage. I mean, just gigantic. And
28:05
Speaker 1: even though they won the MAAC last year, everybody at
28:09
Speaker 1: this point, if you've been watching for any amount of time,
28:11
Speaker 1: knows that I'm not a huge fan of their offensive coordinator,
28:13
Speaker 1: Walt Bell. Bell was at Florida State. He went to UMass.
28:18
Speaker 1: He's been all over the place. I don't feel like
28:21
Speaker 1: his offenses have ever been good. And yet he still
28:24
Speaker 1: continues to be an offensive coordinator. Uh, Jason Beck, I'm
28:27
Speaker 1: curious to see what he's going to look like. And
28:29
Speaker 1: this is an interesting spot because they're favored by 27
28:34
Speaker 1: and a half. It opened 26 and a half. Um,
28:40
Speaker 1: it was at, take that back. It was at 28
28:42
Speaker 1: and a half at one point. Let's make sure this
28:45
Speaker 1: line is still accurate, but here we go. Yeah. There's
28:50
Speaker 1: 27 and a half's out there. Um, I do not
28:54
Speaker 1: believe that Western Michigan is going to be able to score,
28:57
Speaker 1: and I think Michigan is going to play quickly. Even
29:00
Speaker 1: if they run the ball more often, I think they're
29:03
Speaker 1: still going to go fast. They were number 89 in
29:06
Speaker 1: offensive time per play last year. Western Michigan played super
29:09
Speaker 1: slow last year, but I don't know what they're going
29:12
Speaker 1: to do this year. They are really bad on the
29:15
Speaker 1: defensive line. Not really bad. Let me take that back.
29:18
Speaker 1: Just no experience and kind of small. And that ain't
29:22
Speaker 1: good when you're playing against Michigan. I think Jason Beck's
29:25
Speaker 1: going to be able to put up some numbers here.
29:26
Speaker 1: They're going to want to showcase a little bit. This
29:30
Speaker 1: is certainly one of those where I would take a
29:31
Speaker 1: first half for Michigan. But it depends on what you
29:37
Speaker 1: would want them... Can they come out and gel quickly?
29:43
Speaker 1: That's the question. Can they gel quickly? This thing's under
29:46
Speaker 1: four touchdowns. I know my model has Michigan minus 26.3.
29:52
Speaker 1: I'm going to ride with the Wolverines. First game at home,
29:56
Speaker 1: night game, fired up. Yes, I know that they've got
30:00
Speaker 1: Oklahoma next week. I know it's a look-ahead spot. I
30:02
Speaker 1: understand that. But there's not as much pressure on this
30:04
Speaker 1: coaching staff. They don't have to win next week the
30:09
Speaker 1: way that Texas does. This is huge. This is a
30:13
Speaker 1: big spot for Michigan. In-state opponent. I think this is
30:21
Speaker 1: the spot where Michigan kind of exercises some demons. Those players,
30:26
Speaker 1: I think, have been ready. to do something for a
30:29
Speaker 1: while because of the way that the last coaching tenure ended.
30:31
Speaker 1: I think they are going to take out some aggression
30:35
Speaker 1: on Western Michigan. So, best number I can get right
30:37
Speaker 1: now with Michigan is minus 27.5. I'll take it. Michigan,
30:42
Speaker 1: minus 27.5. Game number nine, 2.45 p.m. Central Time on Saturday.
30:49
Speaker 1: This one in Chapman Stadium. It is the Gateway First
30:53
Speaker 1: Bank Turnpike Classic. Tulsa hosting Oklahoma state, the first game
30:59
Speaker 1: of the Eric Morris tenure. Yeah. Yeah. Feeling good. Feeling good. Uh,
31:05
Speaker 1: Cassidy is the defensive coordinator there. I feel good about him.
31:08
Speaker 1: I like what he did at North Texas last year. Uh,
31:11
Speaker 1: he was doing good things at Utah before that, but
31:15
Speaker 1: Eric Morris's offense is that's the name of the game here.
31:18
Speaker 1: He brought basically the whole team over from North Texas,
31:21
Speaker 1: including the quarterback, Drew Mestemaker, Tulsa beat this team last year. Um,
31:26
Speaker 1: Let's see. 23-3. I thought I wrote it down. Maybe not. No.
31:37
Speaker 1: I wrote it down 19-12. Is that right? Let's look
31:40
Speaker 1: it up. Let's see. This is riveting podcasting, I know.
31:44
Speaker 1: But I got to see what the score was. Yeah,
31:49
Speaker 1: 19-12 last year. Huh. My brain was thinking something different.
31:54
Speaker 1: Either way. The spread right now is Oklahoma State minus
31:57
Speaker 1: 14 with an over-under of 60 on this. It opened
32:01
Speaker 1: minus 11.5. Yep, minus 11.5, 12 at some spots. So
32:09
Speaker 1: it has moved in Oklahoma State's favor. Big-time revenge spot,
32:15
Speaker 1: other than the fact that this is an entirely new
32:18
Speaker 1: roster for Oklahoma State. None of these players were on
32:20
Speaker 1: that team last year. So as far as revenge is concerned...
32:25
Speaker 1: None of these players had anything to do with that.
32:27
Speaker 1: But they are North Texas players, and a lot of
32:33
Speaker 1: them played competition very similar to Tulsa last year. But
32:37
Speaker 1: my God, did they smoke a lot of them. Like,
32:39
Speaker 1: North Texas was rolling last year. So this Oklahoma State roster,
32:43
Speaker 1: the position units, really good. Significant advantage for the Oklahoma
32:49
Speaker 1: State defensive line. Pretty good advantage for the Oklahoma State
32:53
Speaker 1: offensive line. curious about this because I like Trey Lamb
32:58
Speaker 1: as a coach, but there is a massive roster difference here.
33:03
Speaker 1: It's just a question of can it gel the same
33:06
Speaker 1: at a new place, right? Eric Morris arrived from North Texas.
33:10
Speaker 1: He brought 85 new players, 60 plus transfers, and only
33:15
Speaker 1: a handful of holdovers. The running back Caleb Hawkins joined him.
33:20
Speaker 1: Oklahoma State was number 130 in the country in total
33:23
Speaker 1: offense last year. never scored more than 27 points. They
33:27
Speaker 1: will absolutely change that. North Texas was number one in
33:31
Speaker 1: the country in total offense last year. Um, they were
33:34
Speaker 1: first in scoring like they're, they're awesome. Tulsa is so interesting.
33:40
Speaker 1: Like Baylor Hayes returns at quarterback, the running back had
33:44
Speaker 1: over a thousand yards, but a lot of the defense
33:48
Speaker 1: is going to be incoming transfers. Um, There's no major injuries,
33:53
Speaker 1: no anything to really look at other than the fact
33:55
Speaker 1: that this series is not as lopsided as you would
33:59
Speaker 1: think it is. 44-28-5. Tulsa last year stopped a 10-game skid,
34:07
Speaker 1: but this is absolutely Oklahoma State's year. My model has
34:14
Speaker 1: Oklahoma State minus 15.7. This total again is at 60.
34:21
Speaker 1: And it came down from 61.5. I think if they
34:26
Speaker 1: can put up, whatever number they can put up, I
34:28
Speaker 1: think that's what they're going to put up. Now, Oklahoma
34:30
Speaker 1: State does have Oregon at home next week. I don't
34:34
Speaker 1: think it matters. They ain't worried about that game. They
34:37
Speaker 1: are worried about this game. They are worried about putting
34:39
Speaker 1: points on the board. And they are going to put
34:41
Speaker 1: up points in droves. The question is whether or not
34:43
Speaker 1: Tulsa can keep up. And Tulsa likes to play fast.
34:49
Speaker 1: But man, I'm telling you, Oklahoma State will play fast too.
34:52
Speaker 1: So if this thing dips under 60, I would probably
34:56
Speaker 1: play over. I might look at Oklahoma State team total over.
35:01
Speaker 1: But as far as the number, this thing at 14,
35:05
Speaker 1: ain't enough points. Give me the favorite. Oklahoma State minus
35:10
Speaker 1: 14 on the road. I think they're going to exercise
35:13
Speaker 1: some demons here. Game number 10, early Saturday game in Houston.
35:18
Speaker 1: This one at TDECU Stadium. And the Houston Cougars are
35:24
Speaker 1: taking on Oregon State. That's right, the Beavers making the trip.
35:28
Speaker 1: Right now, Houston favored by 20.5. Total is 50.5. This
35:32
Speaker 1: thing opened at 18.5 and moved two points towards Willie
35:35
Speaker 1: Fritz's team. Houston ranked in the AP Top 25. Had
35:40
Speaker 1: 10 wins last year. Oregon State went 2-10. They are
35:45
Speaker 1: one of two schools that had to rebuild the Pac-12
35:48
Speaker 1: from scratch, of course, with Washington State. However, not as
35:52
Speaker 1: much love for the Beavers this year. Braden Atkinson, I think,
35:57
Speaker 1: is the quarterback's name that transferred from Mercer over to
36:00
Speaker 1: Oregon State. I'm curious about him. Jamarcus Shepard is the
36:03
Speaker 1: new head coach. He was the Alabama wide receivers coach
36:07
Speaker 1: under Kalen DeBoer and the wide receivers coach at Washington. So,
36:12
Speaker 1: He is familiar with Oregon State. He is familiar with
36:15
Speaker 1: the Pac-12 area up there in the Pacific Northwest. Houston
36:20
Speaker 1: won a lot of one-score games last year, etc. I
36:23
Speaker 1: don't think this is going to be one of those.
36:26
Speaker 1: Malik Murphy I don't think is going to win this job.
36:28
Speaker 1: I think Braden Atkinson is going to win this job.
36:31
Speaker 1: The quarterback job for Oregon State is what I'm talking about.
36:34
Speaker 1: I'm so curious. So curious about this. I don't think
36:40
Speaker 1: Oregon State is going to be very good. They are
36:42
Speaker 1: number 78 in full roster talent on three. The offense
36:50
Speaker 1: just is not going to have much to work with
36:53
Speaker 1: against Austin Armstrong's bunch. This Houston offense is interesting. I
36:59
Speaker 1: think they're going to have some major advantages. Their offensive
37:01
Speaker 1: line certainly is an advantage against the defensive line for
37:04
Speaker 1: Oregon State. And the running backs, massive advantage there over
37:09
Speaker 1: this Oregon State back seven. And if they can get
37:13
Speaker 1: past that defensive line, I mean, it's all over. But
37:17
Speaker 1: my number has it Houston minus 18.2. That is lower
37:20
Speaker 1: than the 20.5. Houston's season really starts when they play
37:26
Speaker 1: on that Friday night at home against Texas Tech. That's
37:31
Speaker 1: when this thing really kicks off. And I'm curious if
37:38
Speaker 1: they have some of those games in them where Things
37:41
Speaker 1: just don't exactly look right. I mean, this game was
37:42
Speaker 1: a lot closer last year than it should have been.
37:45
Speaker 1: Way closer. So, do they use that as motivation for
37:50
Speaker 1: this year? Potentially. With this being an early game, body
37:56
Speaker 1: clock game for Oregon State, etc., I'm going to not
38:01
Speaker 1: chase the steam, but I see where people are coming from,
38:04
Speaker 1: and I think there is a massive advantage here for
38:06
Speaker 1: Fritz's bunch. So, I will I'll go with Houston, at
38:09
Speaker 1: least for a show pick. This is not an official play.
38:12
Speaker 1: By the way, you can get those at buymeacoffee.com slash winningcures.
38:15
Speaker 1: But this ain't an official play. This thing is 20.5
38:20
Speaker 1: right now. And we'll confirm that it's still 20.5, total
38:27
Speaker 1: of 49.5. So it's actually dropped a point. Yeah. I
38:35
Speaker 1: don't feel great about it. because I think that the
38:38
Speaker 1: quarterback for Oregon State, whoever it ends up being, but
38:41
Speaker 1: I feel really good about Braden Atkinson. I think they
38:45
Speaker 1: can put up some points with Jamarcus Shepard. I just
38:48
Speaker 1: don't think it'll be enough, because I think that Houston
38:52
Speaker 1: will be able to do whatever they want to. So
38:53
Speaker 1: if this is under three touchdowns, which it currently is,
38:57
Speaker 1: give me Houston minus 20.5. Shirts, hoodies, hats, and more.
39:03
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39:07
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39:11
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39:16
Speaker 1: Subscribe to the Winning Cures Everything audio podcast and never
39:18
Speaker 1: miss an episode. Of course, make sure that you leave
39:21
Speaker 1: a five-star review. And don't forget, it's available everywhere you
39:25
Speaker 1: get podcasts. Game number 11, this one is... 11 a.m.
39:30
Speaker 1: Central Time, God's Time Zone on ESPNU. Liberty goes to
39:35
Speaker 1: James Madison. And Liberty was supposed to be the team
39:39
Speaker 1: that just ran roughshod over Conference USA. James Madison is
39:43
Speaker 1: the program that absolutely has run roughshod over the Sun Belt,
39:47
Speaker 1: but they have Of course, lost Kurt Cignetti. Now Bob
39:53
Speaker 1: Chesney is headed over to UCLA. They're going to bring
39:57
Speaker 1: back somebody that knows the Sun Belt really well. Billy
40:00
Speaker 1: Napier was the king of the Sun Belt before James
40:02
Speaker 1: Madison came in. And he could not get it done
40:05
Speaker 1: at Florida, but that don't mean Billy can't get it
40:07
Speaker 1: done in the Sun Belt. So, looking at this, James
40:11
Speaker 1: Madison favored by 6.5 currently. A total of 52.5 on this.
40:14
Speaker 1: And It got out to seven at a couple of spots. Yeah,
40:22
Speaker 1: it got out to seven at a couple of spots.
40:24
Speaker 1: But right now, we are looking at six and a half.
40:28
Speaker 1: So there's been a little bit of buyback on Liberty.
40:30
Speaker 1: Jamie Chadwell and his bunch, it has not gone well
40:34
Speaker 1: there for whatever reason. But James Madison is an entirely
40:40
Speaker 1: new roster. I mean, brand new. They are number 136
40:43
Speaker 1: in the country in adjusted returning productions. Do I think
40:48
Speaker 1: that they've got some talent? Yes. Number 101 in full
40:51
Speaker 1: roster talent, but Liberty is number 74. They are number
40:54
Speaker 1: 53 in adjusted returning production, but there's no massive advantage
41:00
Speaker 1: for them other than maybe the offensive line against James
41:03
Speaker 1: Madison's defensive line, but that's more based on experience than
41:05
Speaker 1: anything else. When I looked at the roster, you know,
41:11
Speaker 1: these position units, they don't look like they rank well, but...
41:17
Speaker 1: I don't mind the roster. I think that James Madison
41:20
Speaker 1: is pretty good. I think they're going to be fine.
41:24
Speaker 1: But Liberty, I mean, this is one of those that
41:28
Speaker 1: everybody kind of expects a bounce back here. I don't know.
41:32
Speaker 1: I don't know what to make of this team because
41:34
Speaker 1: I have expected them to be good multiple years in
41:38
Speaker 1: a row and they have not been. Liberty was 3-9
41:43
Speaker 1: against the spread last year. And They were 1-5 straight
41:47
Speaker 1: up on the road. I just don't feel great about them.
41:54
Speaker 1: My number on here has James Madison minus 8.7. Obviously,
41:57
Speaker 1: a lot of that has to do with recent history, etc.
42:00
Speaker 1: And at James Madison, they live football. That's not to
42:04
Speaker 1: say that Liberty doesn't. They just have not been able
42:07
Speaker 1: to get it. They haven't gotten it figured out since
42:10
Speaker 1: they went undefeated and then got blown out by Oregon
42:12
Speaker 1: in the Fiesta Bowl however many years ago. That was
42:14
Speaker 1: before the 12-team playoff. They have not been good since.
42:19
Speaker 1: I think the Liberty Love is a little bit misguided.
42:24
Speaker 1: And it might be setting up to have a bigger
42:26
Speaker 1: play later on in the week. If this thing is
42:28
Speaker 1: under a touchdown, I think Billy Napier and Bunch are
42:31
Speaker 1: going to come out and absolutely show out. I think
42:34
Speaker 1: they're going to look good. I expect big things. I
42:39
Speaker 1: expect not playoff big things. I just think this is
42:43
Speaker 1: going to be a competent football team And Liberty, I think,
42:46
Speaker 1: is still trying to figure things out. I will take
42:48
Speaker 1: James Madison, minus 6.5 here. Game number 12, we go
42:53
Speaker 1: up to Happy Valley for this one. Penn State hosting Marshall, 3.30 p.m.
42:58
Speaker 1: Eastern Time, of course. That's not God's time zone. 2.30 p.m.
43:02
Speaker 1: Central Time, God's time zone. On FS1, Penn State currently
43:07
Speaker 1: a 24.5 point favorite. Confirmed that we have not updated since.
43:11
Speaker 1: 24 point favorite at some books, 24.5 at others. Total
43:16
Speaker 1: of 52.5 on this. Carlos Del Rio Wilson is the
43:21
Speaker 1: quarterback at Marshall. Did good things for Tony Gibson in
43:25
Speaker 1: his first season there. Brad Lambert is the defensive coordinator
43:28
Speaker 1: for him. I like Marshall's coaching staff. I like what
43:33
Speaker 1: they're doing, but they're number 72 in returning production. Penn
43:37
Speaker 1: State number 64 in adjusted returning production. They've got Basically
43:43
Speaker 1: a massive advantage everywhere on the field. Matt Campbell is
43:47
Speaker 1: not great as a favorite. He does not cover a
43:51
Speaker 1: lot of games as a favorite. But this is intriguing.
43:58
Speaker 1: Very intriguing. Because my number has Penn State closer to 28.
44:04
Speaker 1: And there's been some martial love here. Now, when you
44:10
Speaker 1: look at this defensive coordinator, For Penn State, Danton Lynn,
44:15
Speaker 1: of course coming over from USC, did good things at
44:17
Speaker 1: UCLA as well. He's coming back to his alma mater.
44:25
Speaker 1: Penn State's got a super experienced quarterback, massive advantages at
44:29
Speaker 1: the line of scrimmage, and yet there's a lot of
44:33
Speaker 1: people that love Marshall, and I would love to be
44:38
Speaker 1: one of those people. But the more I look at these,
44:43
Speaker 1: the more I, I mean, it's the first game at home.
44:46
Speaker 1: It's not an early game. It's an afternoon kick. You're
44:50
Speaker 1: not catching anybody sleeping here if you're Marshall. I don't
44:54
Speaker 1: expect them to be able to put up a lot
44:56
Speaker 1: of points here on this Penn State defense. I do
44:59
Speaker 1: think Rocco Beckton Company are going to be able to
45:01
Speaker 1: run the ball and do basically whatever they want to
45:04
Speaker 1: because I don't like this Marshall defense. Tony Gibson did
45:06
Speaker 1: good things at NC State on defense. At Marshall, not
45:09
Speaker 1: so much. Brad Lambert, I do think, can be a
45:12
Speaker 1: good defensive coordinator. But this was an offensive team last year.
45:18
Speaker 1: If the offense can't put up points on this Big
45:20
Speaker 1: Ten defense, I don't know that they're going to really
45:24
Speaker 1: be able to keep Penn State off the board. So
45:27
Speaker 1: I'm going to trust my number. I'm going to go
45:30
Speaker 1: with Penn State minus the 24. That's the best number
45:32
Speaker 1: I can get right now. But I am curious about
45:38
Speaker 1: the sharp love for Marshall. Keep an eye on this one.
45:41
Speaker 1: I wouldn't bet it, but as far as show purposes go,
45:46
Speaker 1: this thing's back at 24 again. I will take Penn
45:48
Speaker 1: State minus 24. Game number 13, Saturday night in the Swamp, 6.45 p.m.
45:55
Speaker 1: Central Time on the SEC Network, Ben Hill Griffin Stadium.
46:00
Speaker 1: That's right, Florida favored by 26.5 over FAU and the
46:07
Speaker 1: beginning of the John Sumrall era. We'll say that. Billy
46:09
Speaker 1: Napier got fired. We just talked about him with James Madison.
46:13
Speaker 1: This one is intriguing. Total of 59.5 on this game. FAU,
46:22
Speaker 1: of course, Zach Kittley, former Texas Tech offensive coordinator. He
46:25
Speaker 1: likes to play fast. A lot of turnovers last year, etc.
46:29
Speaker 1: They were number two in the country in offensive time
46:31
Speaker 1: per play. Time of possession, whatever. Not time of possession,
46:35
Speaker 1: excuse me. Really explosive offensively. but also led to a
46:39
Speaker 1: lot of turnovers, stuff like that. They're number 29 in
46:45
Speaker 1: quarterback unit, number 56 in defensive line unit. Florida's offensive line,
46:49
Speaker 1: I've got a number 49. So not great, but they
46:52
Speaker 1: do have great running backs. I will say that. I
46:55
Speaker 1: will certainly say that. The only real injury here to
46:58
Speaker 1: keep up with is the wide receiver, Vernell Brown III,
47:02
Speaker 1: day-to-day with a bruised foot. He's been back in prep.
47:07
Speaker 1: Should be fine. Led the Gators in catches and yards
47:10
Speaker 1: last year as a freshman. But they got Dallas Wilson
47:14
Speaker 1: and Eric Singleton back. That's pretty good wide receiver core.
47:20
Speaker 1: Not bad at all. These teams leaned under last year.
47:26
Speaker 1: Florida went 5-7 to the under. FAU 6-6. 59.5. Way
47:27
Speaker 1: above what either one of these teams produced. But they're
47:40
Speaker 1: going to go fast. Buster Faulkner is the new offensive
47:41
Speaker 1: coordinator of Florida. He was at Georgia Tech last year.
47:43
Speaker 1: He can do some pretty amazing things. And he brings
47:46
Speaker 1: his quarterback, Aaron Filo, with him. Florida's got a lot
47:50
Speaker 1: of talent. A lot of talent. I'm curious if it's
47:52
Speaker 1: all going to gel quickly. The original spread on this
47:55
Speaker 1: was 27.5. My number has it Florida minus 25. So
48:00
Speaker 1: the fact that this thing has come back down to 26.5,
48:02
Speaker 1: I can kind of understand that. I don't feel great
48:06
Speaker 1: about FAU being able to line up and do anything. here,
48:09
Speaker 1: but I do think in the second half, it's just
48:14
Speaker 1: going to kind of be whatever. And when you're playing
48:16
Speaker 1: fast against a team that doesn't care, you can get
48:21
Speaker 1: some points that way. So I would look for some
48:24
Speaker 1: explosive plays out of FAU, but I wouldn't expect them
48:27
Speaker 1: until later in the game. Um, I think first half,
48:32
Speaker 1: like a first half under might make sense because that
48:34
Speaker 1: defense is really going to be playing. I think the
48:36
Speaker 1: running game is going to be going for Florida, uh,
48:39
Speaker 1: I wouldn't necessarily take a... I wouldn't take Florida first half.
48:48
Speaker 1: This is a game I'd probably just sit back and
48:49
Speaker 1: watch and see. Because, I mean, there's been so many
48:51
Speaker 1: changes in college football this year. This is such a
48:53
Speaker 1: weird year. Such a weird year. Anyway, full game, 26.5.
48:59
Speaker 1: That's still under my number. Or still higher than my number.
49:03
Speaker 1: My number's still lower. This will make sense eventually. I
49:07
Speaker 1: will take FAU. to cover the 26.5. I think they
49:10
Speaker 1: can keep this thing to within like 24, something like that. So,
49:15
Speaker 1: I mean, you're looking at 42 to... 20, something like that.
49:22
Speaker 1: I think that could be a good win for Florida
49:24
Speaker 1: to start things off. And I like Zach Kittley. I
49:30
Speaker 1: hope he does good things. Number 24 in the country
49:32
Speaker 1: in adjusted returning production. Florida's number 16. So these are
49:35
Speaker 1: two teams that know what they're doing. There is a
49:39
Speaker 1: massive talent advantage for the Gators. Don't get me wrong,
49:42
Speaker 1: but I will roll with FAU. Plus 26.5. Game number 14,
49:48
Speaker 1: and make it make sense. I don't understand. Toledo goes
49:52
Speaker 1: to Michigan State. 7 p.m. Central Time on Friday evening.
49:57
Speaker 1: This one in Spartan Stadium in East Lansing. Total of 49.5.
50:01
Speaker 1: Michigan State is currently favored by 9.5 here. I take
50:07
Speaker 1: that back. This thing opened... At 49.5, it's down to 46.5
50:11
Speaker 1: in some spots. My goodness. A lot of movement here.
50:17
Speaker 1: Somebody earlier today was betting Toledo like they knew the
50:20
Speaker 1: final score. Why? I don't get that at all. Looking
50:27
Speaker 1: at these rosters... Mike Jacobs is the new head coach
50:34
Speaker 1: at Toledo. And I understand that everybody thinks that they
50:37
Speaker 1: upgraded theirs. I get it, because Jason Candle did less
50:41
Speaker 1: with more all the time. He always covered as an underdog,
50:48
Speaker 1: lost outright so many times as a big favorite. Toledo
50:52
Speaker 1: fans were just ready to be done with it. There's
50:53
Speaker 1: a reason why he had to take the job at UConn, right?
50:57
Speaker 1: But when you look at who Toledo brought in, a
51:03
Speaker 1: lot of players came over with Mike Jacobs from Mercer.
51:08
Speaker 1: And Mercer was bad last year. Like, the quarterback was good.
51:13
Speaker 1: The team itself was not good. Like, lost to not
51:19
Speaker 1: very good FCS teams. Got blown out by South Dakota
51:23
Speaker 1: in the last game of the year, like 47-0. Got
51:26
Speaker 1: blown out by Auburn. Like, Auburn put up 66 points
51:29
Speaker 1: on that. I mean, all they had to do was
51:32
Speaker 1: lean on them. And they were able to score a
51:35
Speaker 1: lot of points. And I think that's what Michigan State's
51:38
Speaker 1: going to do. Michigan State, I've got the number 29
51:41
Speaker 1: offensive line in the country. Toledo's defensive line, number 111.
51:46
Speaker 1: This is number 54 in on three full roster talent
51:50
Speaker 1: against number 98. There's such a size advantage for Michigan
51:55
Speaker 1: State that I cannot figure it out. I'm guessing people
51:59
Speaker 1: are betting Toledo because of the historical trend where, if
52:05
Speaker 1: I'm not mistaken, Michigan State is 0-8 against the spread
52:09
Speaker 1: as a home favorite over the last two years. And
52:12
Speaker 1: Toledo is 9-0 against the spread since 2021 as a
52:16
Speaker 1: dog of less than 31 points. But they're completely different
52:21
Speaker 1: teams now. Joe Rossi, back as the defensive coordinator with
52:24
Speaker 1: Michigan State. Nick Sheridan was the co-offensive coordinator, quarterback's coach
52:29
Speaker 1: at Alabama last year. He has been with Kalen DeBoer
52:32
Speaker 1: for a couple of years now. Toledo, I mean, you
52:37
Speaker 1: are bringing an FCS squad over. And if you don't
52:40
Speaker 1: think Pat Fitzgerald is ready to lay the wood to somebody, immunity,
52:46
Speaker 1: as Pate would say, uh, I mean, you just hadn't
52:49
Speaker 1: been paying attention to what all happened at Northwestern. He
52:52
Speaker 1: is going to be so ramped up for this game. This,
52:57
Speaker 1: this line makes no sense. This feels like somebody setting
53:01
Speaker 1: something up to play later in the week. Um, So
53:05
Speaker 1: let's go on and get ahead of it before this
53:06
Speaker 1: thing gets back to double digits. Michigan State, minus 9.5. And, yeah,
53:11
Speaker 1: a little secret for the buy me a coffee bunch. Yeah,
53:16
Speaker 1: that's a play. That's a play. Game number 15. This
53:19
Speaker 1: one's Saturday. Big, new kickoff is going to be in
53:22
Speaker 1: Bloomington for this. Indiana hosting North Texas at Memorial Stadium.
53:26
Speaker 1: And it's the National Champs home opener. So, of course,
53:29
Speaker 1: it's going to be a big deal here. This is...
53:34
Speaker 1: Last year would have been a somewhat intriguing matchup because
53:37
Speaker 1: North Texas led the country in scoring. This year, Neil
53:41
Speaker 1: Brown is now the head coach. Eric Morris, of course,
53:43
Speaker 1: took the Oklahoma State job. Neil Brown got fired at
53:45
Speaker 1: West Virginia and now he takes over for North Texas.
53:49
Speaker 1: The number that I see out there right now, we've
53:56
Speaker 1: got a 40 and a 40.5 with a total of 55.5
53:57
Speaker 1: on this. You want to talk about A sizable mismatch.
54:05
Speaker 1: 40 points. This is weird. Weird. But, like, the entire
54:13
Speaker 1: team left with Eric Morris from North Texas. So, Neil
54:18
Speaker 1: Brown is number 133 in adjusted returning production here. And
54:23
Speaker 1: I don't know what to make of this team. Like,
54:26
Speaker 1: no clue. Let's see. I had to look it up.
54:36
Speaker 1: Taven Jackson. That's who I thought it was. Taven Jackson
54:40
Speaker 1: is expected to be the starter here. Not great at UCF.
54:46
Speaker 1: Not great at all. Indiana only went 4-3 against the
54:52
Speaker 1: spread as a home favorite last year. I'm curious about this.
54:59
Speaker 1: They don't have to run up the score on anybody.
55:03
Speaker 1: They have... From what I understand, only 13 offensive linemen
55:08
Speaker 1: on the team. I feel like this is one of
55:12
Speaker 1: those where they're going to go really slow again. They
55:14
Speaker 1: were number 125 in offensive time per play last year.
55:19
Speaker 1: North Texas liked to go fast last year. But if
55:22
Speaker 1: you're only running 125 plays a game, or excuse me,
55:25
Speaker 1: if you're number 125, like bottom 10, bottom 15 in
55:30
Speaker 1: the country in pace of play, Even if you're amazing,
55:38
Speaker 1: I don't expect Mike Shanahan to run up a score here.
55:40
Speaker 1: I think North Texas will be able to get maybe
55:42
Speaker 1: a couple of scores up, something like that. We saw
55:44
Speaker 1: Old Dominion do it to him last year. At least
55:48
Speaker 1: keep that thing respectable. But this is another one of
55:52
Speaker 1: those where they've got to get guys gelling, etc. Yes,
55:55
Speaker 1: in the past, Cignetti has run up the score on people.
55:59
Speaker 1: I think he does it to people that he doesn't like.
56:01
Speaker 1: I don't know of any animosity between him and Neil Brown.
56:07
Speaker 1: These two teams are so completely different than what they
56:10
Speaker 1: were last year. Don't get me wrong. Indiana, number 44
56:14
Speaker 1: in adjusted returning production. They are number 60 on offense,
56:19
Speaker 1: number 43 in adjusted returning production on defense. North Texas
56:24
Speaker 1: just has an entirely new team. Entirely new team. I
56:30
Speaker 1: think Indiana's going to go slow. I don't think they
56:32
Speaker 1: care anything about blowing this team out. If this thing
56:34
Speaker 1: ended up 42-7, I think it'd be perfectly fine. Do
56:37
Speaker 1: I feel great about it? No. But I will take
56:40
Speaker 1: North Texas to cover, best number I can get is 40.5.
56:46
Speaker 1: When you got a total of 55.5 and a spread
56:50
Speaker 1: of 40, like my number on this has Indiana minus 38.
56:52
Speaker 1: I mean, it's been bet up a little bit. Because
56:59
Speaker 1: I had the original spread at 39.5 several weeks ago.
57:04
Speaker 1: I'm going the opposite way. I'll trust the model. even
57:07
Speaker 1: though it's only a couple points off. Like I said,
57:09
Speaker 1: there's no real edges here this week. I mean, my
57:11
Speaker 1: numbers have been pretty dead on. I will take North
57:15
Speaker 1: Texas to cover 40.5. All right, so week zero, I
57:18
Speaker 1: went 5-3 against the spread. Again, if you haven't already, subscribe,
57:24
Speaker 1: hit the like button, jump in the comments, and if
57:28
Speaker 1: you want to support the show, you go check out buymeacoffee.com
57:30
Speaker 1: slash winningcures. All right, let's recap it. We got 15
57:34
Speaker 1: picks today. Again, I don't feel great about Very many
57:37
Speaker 1: of these at all. Official plays will be over at buymeacoffee.com
57:40
Speaker 1: slash winningcures. But Cincy, minus 7.5. Duke, minus 7.5. East Carolina,
57:43
Speaker 1: plus 28. USC, minus 21.5. Texas State, plus 30.5. Washington State,
57:45
Speaker 1: plus 23.5. Pitt, minus 16.5. Michigan, minus 27.5. Oklahoma State,
57:47
Speaker 1: minus 14. Houston, minus 20.5. James Madison, minus 6.5. Penn State,
57:49
Speaker 1: minus 24. Florida Atlantic, plus 26.5. Michigan State minus 9.5,
58:07
Speaker 1: and North Texas plus 40.5. That is 1, 2, 3, 4,
58:14
Speaker 1: 5 underdogs. Yeah, I don't like that at all. I mean,
58:22
Speaker 1: only a third of my picks are dogs. Yeah, that's
58:25
Speaker 1: never hurt anybody before, right? Good gracious. We'll see what
58:29
Speaker 1: this does. We'll see what this does. Again, 5-3 to
58:31
Speaker 1: open last week in Week 0. Let's see where it
58:36
Speaker 1: goes from here. With that said, let's get out of here.
58:42
Speaker 1: You guys have been fantastic. Thank you so much for watching,
58:45
Speaker 1: for hanging out with me, for being a member of
58:47
Speaker 1: this community. I love doing it. This is my 11th
58:51
Speaker 1: season doing a podcast about college football. I love it.
58:56
Speaker 1: I love this sport. I love everything about it. With
58:58
Speaker 1: that said, take care of yourself. Take care of each other.
59:02
Speaker 1: God bless college football. and hopefully all of your tickets
59:06
Speaker 1: cash this week. Thanks for listening to Winning Cures Everything. Subscribe,
59:11
Speaker 1: leave a review or comment, follow at GaryWCE on X,
59:15
Speaker 1: and check out the web store.