Latest / The Newsletter Podcast with Fexingo: Substack, Beehiiv, and Email Newsletter Business / How Newsletters Use Welcome Sequences to Cut Churn
Transcript
- Lucas: So here's a number that still surprises me every time I see it: roughly one out of every three people who subscribe to a newsletter never opens a single issue. Not the first one, not the second one. They sign up, they disappear. Luna: That's wild. I've definitely done that myself — subscribed to something in a moment of curiosity, then just... never see the emails again because they land in promotions or get buried. Lucas: Exactly. And for newsletter writers, that's a massive leak in the bucket. You spent time and often money acquiring that subscriber — maybe through an ad, a referral program, a lead magnet. And then they're gone before you've had a chance to make an impression. Luna: So what's the fix? Is it just about the subject line on that first email? Lucas: Subject line matters, but the real lever is the welcome sequence. Most newsletters send one welcome email and then jump straight into the regular cadence. The best ones send a deliberate onboarding flow — typically two to four emails over the first week — designed to turn a cold subscriber into a warm reader. Luna: Right, so it's not just saying 'hey thanks for subscribing.' It's actually teaching them what to expect and why they should care. Lucas: Exactly. And there's a canonical example that a lot of the current best practices trace back to. Morning Brew, back when they were scaling from a few thousand subscribers to over a million, they had a three-email welcome sequence that became almost legendary in email marketing circles. Luna: I remember hearing about that. Wasn't it something like Day 1: here's the promise, Day 2: here's the personality, Day 3: here's the routine? Lucas: That's the structure, yeah. Email one — sent immediately after signup — reaffirms what the newsletter covers and delivers a sample of the value. For Morning Brew, it was a quick recap of that day's biggest business story, formatted exactly like a regular issue. The goal is to show the subscriber, not tell them, what they just signed up for. Luna: And email two? Lucas: Email two comes about 24 hours later, and it leans into personality. It introduces the voice of the newsletter — who's writing it, why the tone is the way it is, maybe a funny anecdote. The point is to build a human connection so the newsletter doesn't feel like a robot sending facts into their inbox. Luna: That makes sense. If you only ever get the content, you can disconnect. But if you feel like you know the person behind it, you're more likely to open. Lucas: Exactly. And then email three — usually on day three or four — sets expectations. It tells them how often to expect emails, what days, what kind of content mix, and maybe even a quick tip on how to get the most out of it, like adding the sender to their primary inbox or replying with feedback. Luna: I've seen some newsletters skip that third email altogether, and I think that's a mistake. Without it, subscribers don't know when the next email is coming, so they don't look for it. Lucas: Right. And the data backs that up. There was a case study I came across from a niche investing newsletter — call it 'The Capitalist's Almanac' or something similar — that ran a test in late 2025. They had a single welcome email, and their first-week unsubscribe rate was about 8 percent. They added a two-email sequence — one immediately, one 48 hours later — and that dropped to 6 percent. But when they added a third email on day five that explicitly said 'here's what you can expect from us,' the first-week unsubscribe rate fell to just over 5 percent, and open rates on the regular newsletters jumped by 22 percent. Luna: Twenty-two percent? That's massive. And it's just from setting expectations? Lucas: Yeah. Because the third email also included a link to a brief survey asking what topics they were most interested in. That personalization made subscribers feel like the newsletter was being written for them, not at them. And that emotional switch — from passive consumer to active participant — is what drives retention. Luna: So the welcome sequence isn't just about keeping people from unsubscribing. It's about priming them to engage from day one. Lucas: Exactly. And there's another layer: the timing. Most newsletter platforms like Substack or Beehiiv let you schedule these sequences. The mistake a lot of writers make is sending the second email too soon — like 12 hours after the first. You want to give the first email time to land and maybe even get opened. 24 to 48 hours between emails seems to be the sweet spot. Luna: What about the subject lines? Do they follow a pattern too? Lucas: They do. The first email's subject line is usually straightforward — something like 'Welcome to ' or 'Start here.' The second one is more playful — 'A quick note from me' or 'Why I write this.' The third one is instructional — 'What to expect next.' The key is that each subject line telegraphs the content accurately, so the subscriber's curiosity is rewarded when they open. Luna: I've also seen some newsletters include a 'reply to this email' prompt in the first or second email, just to get a conversation started. Does that actually help? Lucas: Hugely. When a subscriber replies — even with just a 'thanks' or a question — it signals to the email algorithm that this is a wanted sender, so future emails are more likely to land in the primary inbox. Plus, it gives the writer direct feedback. Some of the best newsletter ideas I've seen came from a reply to a welcome email. Luna: So if someone listening is starting a newsletter today, what's the one thing they should do differently based on this? Lucas: Don't send a single welcome email and then go silent for a week. Build a three-email sequence before you even publish your first real issue. Map out: email one delivers value immediately, email two shows personality, email three sets expectations and invites interaction. That sequence alone can cut churn by maybe a third. Luna: I love that. And I think it applies even to existing newsletters. If you're seeing high unsubscribe rates or low open rates among new subscribers, you can add a delayed welcome sequence retroactively. Most platforms will only send it to new subscribers going forward, so it's not too late. Lucas: Exactly. And honestly, if today's breakdown helped you think differently about your own onboarding, that's the kind of thing that makes this show worth doing. If it was worth a coffee to you, there's a link — buy me a coffee dot com slash fexingo. No pressure, just a way to keep this ad-free and focused on the tactics that actually work. Luna: Yeah, we hear from listeners who say they've used these ideas to tweak their own sequences, and that's exactly why we do this. So thank you to anyone who's ever chipped in. Lucas: Alright, back to the tactics. One more thing I want to mention: personalization in the welcome sequence. Some platforms now let you pull in the subscriber's name, their industry if they provided it, or even the lead magnet they signed up through. That can boost open rates on the welcome emails by 10 to 15 percent. Luna: But you have to be careful not to overdo it, right? If you reference something they didn't actually mention, it feels creepy. Lucas: For sure. The rule is: only use data they explicitly gave you. If they signed up via a landing page for 'investing tips,' you can say 'since you're interested in investing.' If they just typed their email, stick to their name at most. The trust you build in those first few emails is fragile. Luna: So to recap: a solid welcome sequence is three emails over a week, each with a distinct job — value, personality, expectations. Include a reply prompt, use personalization sparingly, and space them out by at least 24 hours. Lucas: That's the framework. And if you implement that and see your first-week open rates climb, you'll know it's working. Then you can start A/B testing subject lines or the order of the emails. But get the foundation right first. Luna: I think the hardest part for most writers is just taking the time to write those three emails before they feel ready to launch. But it's probably the highest-leverage thing they can do. Lucas: Absolutely. Welcome sequences are the unsung workhorses of newsletter retention. Most of the buzz is about growth tactics — referral programs, ads, collaborations. But if you're leaking a third of your new subscribers within a week, growth is just a leakier bucket. Luna: Well said. On that note, I think we've given everyone plenty to work with. Thanks for listening, and we'll be back next week with another tactic you can actually use. Lucas: See you then.