Latest / Simply Bitcoin / Did the Federal Reserve Just DESTROY Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle?! Simply Originals

Transcript

Did the Federal Reserve Just DESTROY Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle?! Simply Originals · Simply Bitcoin

• 0:00
  Everything you think you know about Bitcoin's famous four year
• 0:03
  cycle might have just been destroyed by Jerome Powell.
• 0:07
  Today is not a normal FOMC day. This is the day Jerome Powell
• 0:12
  walks on stage with 90% odds of cutting rates into blind
• 0:17
  economic data in one of his last major actions as Fed chair.
• 0:23
  And this may be the moment Bitcoin cycle breaks forever.
• 0:27
  Because if the Fed ends QT, cuts rates and signals that QE is
• 0:33
  quietly returning the liquidity flip, the one Bitcoin needs for
• 0:37
  its next super cycle might be happening right now.
• 0:41
  And if he doesn't, if Powell comes out, hawkish brother
• 0:45
  markets could puke so hard they won't recover until Trump fires
• 0:49
  him. Meanwhile, while everyone is
• 0:51
  distracted, Cynthia Lummis is dropping a Bitcoin market
• 0:55
  structure bill that could literally green light the US
• 0:58
  Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. And Kathy Wood, Lynn Alden, and
• 1:01
  the business cycle itself are all saying the same thing.
• 1:05
  The old four year Bitcoin cycle is dead and what comes next
• 1:10
  could be absolutely insane. And once your brain is melted
• 1:14
  from that, we're locking in with Stinky finky before unleashing
• 1:18
  the most bullish news of the entire year.
• 1:21
  We're talking U.S. banks now allowed to buy and sell Bitcoin,
• 1:25
  the CFTC testing Bitcoin as collateral, Lummus pushing to
• 1:30
  eliminate taxes on Bitcoin payments, and Jack Mahler's
• 1:34
  reminding the world why they have to print.
• 1:38
  Yes, strap the hell in because we have a massive show today.
• 1:46
  All right, here we go. Today at 2:00 PM Eastern, the
• 1:49
  Fed is expected with 88 to 90% probability to cut rates 25
• 1:54
  basis points. But the cut is not the story.
• 1:57
  The tone is the story. And there are four ways this can
• 2:02
  go. Scenario one rate cut plus a
• 2:04
  dovish signal. Powell Hanson more cuts coming,
• 2:07
  talks about liquidity support, maybe even whispers about ending
• 2:11
  QT Markets go absolutely vertical and Bitcoin pops
• 2:15
  instantly. Scenario two rate cut plus a
• 2:18
  neutral tone. No guidance, no real clarity,
• 2:21
  just pal mumbling his way through uncertainty.
• 2:24
  It's kind of par for the course, and if this happens, markets
• 2:27
  whip around and Bitcoin stays choppy.
• 2:29
  Bullcrab. Scenario 3 rate cut plus QE
• 2:33
  hints. Pals suggest balance sheet
• 2:35
  expansion later in 2026, even implicitly.
• 2:39
  Bro that's the Super cycle button all risk assets global
• 2:43
  send scenario four rate cut plus hawkish tone Powell talks about
• 2:49
  inflation, says he's concerned signals a pause the market tops
• 2:54
  Bitcoin takes a short term hit. But here's what makes today
• 2:58
  historic. Powell is cutting blind because
• 3:01
  the government shutdown delayed the jobs data.
• 3:04
  There is no October unemployment rate.
• 3:06
  BLS November numbers aren't coming until mid January.
• 3:10
  This is the most consequential monetary decision in a decade
• 3:15
  and Powell is driving with no dashboard.
• 3:17
  And then it gets even crazier. Trump just might have blown up.
• 3:22
  the Fed entirely Rolled it. We have a lousy Fed chair.
• 3:26
  And by the way, it looks you're going to have to check this,
• 3:29
  please. I just heard it could be that
• 3:33
  all four commissioners in the Fed signed by Biden, including
• 3:39
  too late, you know, you know who too late is too late, pal
• 3:42
  Jerome, too late. He's too late with his interest
• 3:44
  rates for a reason. He's a bad guy.
• 3:46
  He's not a smart guy, but he's a bad guy.
• 3:48
  Too late. Is he going to lower rates a
• 3:49
  little bit? Finally, did you see where Jamie
• 3:52
  Dimon respected guy said you got to get the rates down, you
• 3:55
  schmuck, You know, but but I hear that the auto pen may have
• 4:02
  signed those commissions if they signed those Commission.
• 4:06
  Now, maybe I'm wrong, but we're going to check.
• 4:09
  Have you checked that? Are you hearing it?
• 4:12
  Who signed it? Did he sign it or did the auto
• 4:14
  pen sign it? I'm hearing the auto, you know,
• 4:22
  you can't use the auto pen unless it's very strongly
• 4:25
  authorized, unless you show you know what the hell you're doing,
• 4:27
  which is impossible of empty shell nobody was doing.
• 4:32
  So I don't know. I think it's something we have
• 4:34
  to look into. They put people there that are
• 4:37
  not authorized to be there. I know I signed Chris Wright.
• 4:41
  I signed everything, but I signed Chris Wright.
• 4:43
  If I gave you an auto pen, they could throw you the hell out of
• 4:46
  here, Chris. The difference is they would do
• 4:48
  it. You know, we try and be too nice
• 4:50
  though. Would you check that, Scott?
• 4:51
  OK, because I'm hearing that the auto pen could have signed maybe
• 4:56
  all four, but maybe a couple of them will take 2.
• 5:00
  So look at that, Biden. He's publicly questioning
• 5:02
  whether Biden's Fed picks or even legit, and he's openly
• 5:05
  telling the world yes, the next Fed chair will be expected to
• 5:10
  lower rates immediately. I want to ask about interest
• 5:13
  rates because a lot of Americans agree with you that they're too
• 5:15
  high. You're going to pick a new Fed
• 5:17
  chair soon. Is it a litmus test that the new
• 5:20
  chair lower interest rates immediately?
• 5:22
  Yes, well, this guy too should too, but I think he's a
• 5:26
  combination of he's not a smart person and doesn't like.
• 5:30
  Trump, this is the orange man saying I'm taking the wheel.
• 5:33
  In 2026, the Fed will run the economy hot and Powell, his term
• 5:39
  ends May 2026. Kevin Hassett is waiting in the
• 5:42
  wings. Today might be Powell's last
• 5:45
  stand before the entire institution flips.
• 5:48
  Now let's hit the numbers the mainstream media won't show you.
• 5:51
  Small businesses lost 120,000 jobs in November.
• 5:56
  Large corporations, on the other hand, gained 90,000 jobs.
• 6:00
  There's like 2 Americas. One's thriving while the other
• 6:03
  is drowning. ADP headline -32,000 jobs, the
• 6:08
  worst since April 2020. Inflation stuck at 3%.
• 6:12
  The 2% target. A fairy tale.
• 6:15
  All right, all right, deep breath.
• 6:16
  Let's pivot to the massive news from the Bitcoin senator.
• 6:21
  What everyone is staring at. Jay pal Cynthia Lummis is
• 6:24
  quietly rearranging the entire US Bitcoin framework.
• 7:13
  None. The bill could pass within weeks
• 7:22
  with bipartisan support. Not only does it outline
• 7:26
  Bitcoins regulatory structure, not only does it clean up the
• 7:29
  CFTC versus SEC mess, it sets the foundation for the US
• 7:35
  strategic Bitcoin Reserve. Yes, the same SBR we've been
• 7:40
  talking about for months. Lummus wants comments from both
• 7:43
  sides by the end of the week, markup next week.
• 7:47
  This is moving fast and at the same time she wants to eliminate
• 7:51
  taxes on small Bitcoin payments by next year.
• 8:23
  Let that sink in. America is preparing the legal
• 8:26
  structure for mass Bitcoin adoption.
• 8:29
  Now with the macro and the regulations on the table, it's
• 8:32
  time to tackle the demise of the four year cycle.
• 8:36
  Time to kill a sacred cow. The Bitcoin four year cycle did
• 8:40
  not die because of the halving. It died because the business
• 8:43
  cycle diverged. Every major bull run in bitcoins
• 8:47
  history began when liquidity flipped.
• 8:50
  And guess what? Liquidity has not flipped yet,
• 8:54
  which means we are in the setup phase, not the blow off top.
• 8:59
  This hasn't even begun yet. Kathy Wood lays it out here.
• 9:04
  Bitcoin is behaving more like a risk on asset.
• 9:07
  It has played the risk off role at different times during the
• 9:12
  European sovereign debt crisis, during our regional bank crisis.
• 9:16
  But right now it's risk on we this is it is climbing another
• 9:21
  wall of worry and that is the four year cycle.
• 9:25
  We think the four year cycle is is going to be disrupted.
• 9:30
  And what what I mean by that is Bitcoin regularly dropped 75 to
• 9:35
  90% in its early days. The volatility is going down.
• 9:40
  It's down about 30 some odd percent.
• 9:43
  And I think there's a fear of the four year cycle.
• 9:48
  We think that it the move by institutions into this new asset
• 9:53
  class is going to prevent much more of a decline.
• 9:57
  We may have seen the low a couple of weeks ago.
• 10:00
  No more monstrous drawdowns, no more predictable havings as
• 10:04
  drivers. Then Lynn Alden comes in with
• 10:06
  the hammer. Though are you in the camp of
• 10:08
  four year cycle still on cue? No real change in how these
• 10:14
  cycles have gone in the past? Or do you think that has shifted
• 10:16
  some? My base case is the four year
• 10:19
  cycle is no longer really relevant.
• 10:21
  It arguably hasn't been relevant for the past cycle either.
• 10:23
  Early on whenever the supply having happened, that was a very
• 10:27
  big change to bitcoins kind of new supply coming out.
• 10:31
  Whereas now the, you know, the annual supply inflation rate is
• 10:34
  well under 1%. It's a lower supply growth than
• 10:37
  gold as on a percentage basis. And so I don't really view that
• 10:41
  as the main driver anymore. I think there's, you know,
• 10:44
  potentially some selling around the psychology of the four year
• 10:47
  cycle. Is this a time to DCA Bitcoin
• 10:50
  trading literally as we recorded around 90K.
• 10:53
  Is this ADCA time for Bitcoin? I, I think so.
• 10:57
  And almost by definition if someones dollar cost averaging,
• 11:00
  it's, it's always the right time.
• 11:01
  That's the kind of point is you're not really trying to time
• 11:02
  the market. I, I think it's more of a
• 11:04
  question of is it time to accelerate the DCA a little bit.
• 11:08
  Generally speaking, when the when the sentiment comes off,
• 11:10
  we've seen that the Bitcoin treasury M Navs disappear.
• 11:14
  We've seen some of the metrics I look at like market value
• 11:16
  compared to on chain cost bases that is compressed quite
• 11:19
  significantly makes a lot more attractive.
• 11:22
  Overall enthusiasm is elsewhere. It's on AI, it's on gold, you
• 11:27
  know, public sentiment around bitcoins pretty low.
• 11:30
  I generally think this is the time to to lean into it now.
• 11:32
  But I think as a, as a, you know, larger slice of a
• 11:34
  portfolio, I think it makes sense to to buy the fear rather
• 11:37
  than kind of buy the enthusiasm. On chain metrics are compressed,
• 11:41
  Treasury premiums collapsed. AI and gold stole the headlines.
• 11:45
  This is exactly the moment when long term entries built, but
• 11:50
  Rustin, if the four year cycle is dead, was next.
• 11:54
  Simple the liquidity cycle plus the business cycle.
• 11:57
  Whenever the Russell 2000 breaks out, Bitcoin follows.
• 12:02
  Guess what just happened? The Russell 2000 just broke out
• 12:05
  of its multi year range. Seatbelts on All right now get
• 12:10
  your incense, light your candles because it's time to summon
• 12:15
  Stinky Finky, the high priest of Bull Tardism.
• 12:18
  All right, sit up straight, shut the up and pay attention.
• 12:21
  Stinky Finky commands you. This is where it all comes
• 12:24
  together. U.S. banks can now buy and sell
• 12:27
  Bitcoin for customers. That is the green light.
• 12:30
  The dam is cracked. CFTC to test Bitcoin as
• 12:34
  collateral. This is the big one.
• 12:36
  Once Bitcoin backs derivatives, Bitcoin becomes the backbone of
• 12:40
  the global financial system. Christmas is 2 weeks away and
• 12:44
  Wall Street is looking for a year end liquidity miracle.
• 12:48
  And we know one thing is certain, regardless of what
• 12:51
  voodoo they try to pull as the CEO of Strike and 21 Capital
• 12:55
  puts it, no matter what they say, remember they have to print
• 13:00
  now before we show you what's coming in 2026 and why it's
• 13:04
  insanely bullish for Bitcoin. Look at our likes 3 or 4 times.
• 13:09
  Maybe I pump those numbers up. Those are rookie numbers in this
• 13:11
  racket. Let's take a quick second for
• 13:13
  our sponsors who keep this show on the air over at the Bitcoin
• 13:16
  way. If your wealth lives in their
• 13:18
  system, it's not yours, it's theirs.
• 13:20
  That's why we scream Bitcoin. That's why you self custody and
• 13:23
  that's why you call our friends over at the Bitcoin way.
• 13:26
  They'll walk you through multi sig self custody, privacy, how
• 13:29
  to run A and the tools that keep you sovereign when the Fiat
• 13:32
  system pulls the plug. Don't wait till it's too late.
• 13:34
  Book a free 30 minute console today using that link in the
• 13:37
  show notes. Need cash but don't want to sell
• 13:40
  your Bitcoin? Leaden is the global leader in
• 13:42
  Bitcoin back loans, issuing over 9 billion in loans since 2018
• 13:47
  and they were the first to offer proof of reserves.
• 13:49
  With Leaden you get custody, loans, no credit checks, no
• 13:52
  monthly payments and more. Visit learn dot leaden dot IO
• 13:56
  slash simply to learn more and get 25 basis points.
• 14:01
  Buy every dip. the United States cannot afford to have assets go
• 14:06
  down over persistent time frame. the US stock market is a Ponzi
• 14:11
  retirement account for the United States.
• 14:13
  They need it to both store wealth for Americans and for
• 14:18
  Americans to monetize wealth where they earn tax receipts.
• 14:22
  If the US doesn't have a stock market that's up 10 to 15% a
• 14:26
  year, it is insolvent because it cannot afford the interest
• 14:30
  payments on its debt. So all dips should be bought.
• 14:35
  None of these dips scream bitcoins going to 10K.
• 14:38
  None of these dips are talking about cats.
• 14:40
  I'm allergic to cats. Literally I am.
• 14:43
  You learn something new about me every single week.
• 14:45
  I am physically allergic to cats.
• 14:47
  I can't be around cats. So I know nothing about a cat.
• 14:50
  A dead cat and bouncing. I know nothing about it.
• 14:53
  This is all to do with global liquidity.
• 14:55
  The point is we're in the middle of a liquidity crunch.
• 14:59
  Again, that's kind of been my consistent theme is that today
• 15:03
  QT ended. So first of all, for all of you,
• 15:07
  QT ended today, quantitative easing, QE is very likely to
• 15:12
  resume in the near term. We're very likely to get rate
• 15:15
  cuts going forward. Trump, he said in communicated,
• 15:18
  I know exactly who I want as my Fed chair.
• 15:22
  They're going to be allowed to use unlimited leverage for
• 15:25
  Treasuries, create a lot of credit, create a lot of new
• 15:27
  money. We have 50 year mortgage.
• 15:29
  We have stimulus checks, we have midterms.
• 15:31
  I know I take a lot of for it. I think this cycle is 250K to a
• 15:35
  million. Followers reminds the world they
• 15:38
  have to print. Look at the adoption wave.
• 15:41
  Look at the macro setup. This is a once in a generation
• 15:45
  alignment. 2026 is refinancing here.
• 15:48
  And here is your final truth. The US must refinance $8
• 15:55
  trillion in 2026. They can't do that at 3 1/2
• 16:00
  percent rates. They can't do that without QE.
• 16:04
  They cannot do that without liquidity, and they cannot do
• 16:08
  that without a monetary escape valve.
• 16:10
  Right, Sir, Coming. QE is coming.
• 16:14
  Trump's apolitical Fed chair is coming.
• 16:18
  And the Bitcoin super cycle, it's forming.
• 16:21
  Nothing stops this train Stinky Finky says hey hope you guys
• 16:28
  enjoyed this one. Let us know what you think
• 16:30
  below. Don't forget to lack subscribe
• 16:31
  and give us a pant by sharing this sound money gospel and I'll
• 16:34
  catch you all tomorrow. Love you guys.