Latest / Yaron Brook Show / Tanker Seized; Venezuela Oil; Iran; Ukraine; Jan 6 Website; MAHA; Hiring; Housing | Yaron Brook Show
Transcript
- 0:02Speaker 1: A lot of fundamental principles of edom, actually self interest
- 0:10Speaker 1: and an individual once This is the show, all right, everybody,
- 0:21Speaker 1: welcome to you on book show on this Wednesday, January seventh.
- 0:26Speaker 1: And uh, I hope everybody's having a week weeks so far.
- 0:33Speaker 1: Uh we have got a uh yeah, we've got a
- 0:37Speaker 1: new show today, hot stop in two hours, so we'll
- 0:41Speaker 1: make it a little shorter than usual. We'll run through
- 0:44Speaker 1: some of these stories fairly quickly. I'm not sure what's
- 0:48Speaker 1: going on here. Somebody's calling me. Don't call me. I'm
- 0:51Speaker 1: not answering. All right, let's let's jump in. So today
- 0:56Speaker 1: US Coast Guards, uh and in one case to get
- 1:00Speaker 1: special forces teams about it. Two to all tankers, one
- 1:05Speaker 1: in the Caribbean Sea, supposed to carrying sanctioned venezuela and oil.
- 1:12Speaker 1: The other much more mysterious and much more I guess interesting.
- 1:17Speaker 1: Hard to tell exactly what is going on with this tank.
- 1:21Speaker 1: This tank has started its journey on August nineteenth in
- 1:27Speaker 1: the Persian Gulf in Iran. In Iran, it periodically used
- 1:36Speaker 1: fake location signals, but it basically traveled out of the
- 1:41Speaker 1: Persian Gulf up through the Sioux Canal, through the Mediterranean.
- 1:45Speaker 1: Its location of spotted in a number of different occasions
- 1:47Speaker 1: all the way across towards Venezuela. Never really made it
- 1:52Speaker 1: to Venezuela. It seems to have turned around and sent
- 1:56Speaker 1: a distress signal in December. On the December twenty first,
- 2:02Speaker 1: on January one, it was located in the North Atlantic,
- 2:11Speaker 1: somewhere just south of Greenland on the way in the
- 2:14Speaker 1: direction of Iceland, after having traveled for two weeks kind
- 2:19Speaker 1: of in the dark, with no signal, and it's been
- 2:23Speaker 1: tracked since today someway south of Iceland between Iceland and
- 2:28Speaker 1: the United Kingdom. US Coast Guard and Special Forces took
- 2:34Speaker 1: this ship over earlier in the week, I guess two
- 2:38Speaker 1: days ago. Supposedly the Russians sent a submarine escort for
- 2:42Speaker 1: this ship as well as some surface boats. And you
- 2:47Speaker 1: know when the United States aboarded the ship today, submarine
- 2:51Speaker 1: as I supposed to, did nothing. That is, the Russians
- 2:54Speaker 1: did not intervene. By all accounts, this ship is supposed
- 2:59Speaker 1: to be empty. It's one of the fleets of ghost ships.
- 3:03Speaker 1: These are ships that basically transport sanctioned oil from Iran,
- 3:10Speaker 1: Venezuela and Russia. This particular ship actually is Russia flagg
- 3:19Speaker 1: though at least has been Russian flag flast two weeks Supposedly,
- 3:22Speaker 1: on December twenty fourth, the ship received a temporary permit
- 3:26Speaker 1: to sail under the state flag of the Russian Federation,
- 3:30Speaker 1: issued in accordance with Russian legislation and international law norms.
- 3:35Speaker 1: So how to say exactly what's going on here? Today?
- 3:43Speaker 1: At around three o'clock Moscow time, in the open seas
- 3:48Speaker 1: against south of Iceland and north of the UK, US
- 3:52Speaker 1: naval forces boarded the ship and communication of the ship
- 3:55Speaker 1: was lost. How to tell what's exactly going on? The
- 4:00Speaker 1: ship is supposed to be empty. But if it's empty,
- 4:05Speaker 1: why would the Russians send submarines to escort the ship?
- 4:09Speaker 1: Why is the US so eager to board it and
- 4:13Speaker 1: to stop it? This even toke now of flying the
- 4:17Speaker 1: crew members back to the United States to stand trial
- 4:21Speaker 1: for what exactly? I mean, for running a ship that
- 4:25Speaker 1: has sanctioned oil on it. But it doesn't like we've
- 4:28Speaker 1: never done anything like this. Sanction ships are traveling all
- 4:33Speaker 1: over the world. What is going on with this ship?
- 4:36Speaker 1: What was on the ship? I don't know? I mean,
- 4:43Speaker 1: And given that the ship was going from Iran to Venezuela.
- 4:48Speaker 1: Was it transporting weapons from Iran to Venezuela. It never
- 4:53Speaker 1: made it to Venezuela. So whatever was on the ship
- 4:56Speaker 1: out of Iran, it's still on unless they dumped it
- 4:59Speaker 1: into those uh, and then it was heading. It looks
- 5:03Speaker 1: like from the trajectory to Russia. Maybe it is empty.
- 5:09Speaker 1: Maybe it's just this is part of the Trump administration's
- 5:12Speaker 1: new effort to basically clamp down on on the Shadow
- 5:20Speaker 1: Fleet and to enforce to enforce a stricter to enforce
- 5:25Speaker 1: kind of the embargo rules around oil. It could be
- 5:28Speaker 1: part of the United States being pissed off at Russia.
- 5:32Speaker 1: This could be the week, uh, the off week where
- 5:35Speaker 1: Trump is pissed off at Putin before Putin calls them
- 5:38Speaker 1: and makes up and and sucks up to him. Uh.
- 5:42Speaker 1: The other indications to suggest that Trump is not happy
- 5:46Speaker 1: with Putin. I don't know how that's got to do
- 5:49Speaker 1: with this ship, although it was flying the Russian flag
- 5:52Speaker 1: and the Russian submarines there. So this is anyway mysterious news.
- 5:59Speaker 1: The news is talking a lot about this, This video
- 6:01Speaker 1: of the US troops a boarding the ship, no resistance.
- 6:08Speaker 1: How to tell what exactly is going on? And why
- 6:12Speaker 1: all the hub hub about it? Again, this was a ship,
- 6:17Speaker 1: this formerly Guyana flag became became Russian flag, but is
- 6:23Speaker 1: linked to you on in some way. Maybe we'll find
- 6:26Speaker 1: out in the days, maybe an hours, days, years, decades
- 6:32Speaker 1: to come when they declassified. Anyway, the Russians unhappy. Russian
- 6:37Speaker 1: Fallen Office is a ready declared this illegal and so on,
- 6:40Speaker 1: and now they are according to the Russian Fallen Office,
- 6:44Speaker 1: it seems Russians on the ship, which is surprising. Ships
- 6:48Speaker 1: like this are not usually manned by people from Russian
- 6:54Speaker 1: So what are Russians doing in the ship. That's another
- 6:55Speaker 1: one of those mysteries, right, who are these Russians? Are
- 6:59Speaker 1: they just? Yeah? Again, it all depends on what we
- 7:03Speaker 1: believe is actually on the ship anyway. A Russian nationalist
- 7:08Speaker 1: politician and member of the State Duma of Russia has
- 7:12Speaker 1: called for Russia to sink ships with the US Coast
- 7:16Speaker 1: Guard in response to today's boarding right quote, to attack
- 7:22Speaker 1: with torpedoes, to sink a couple of American Coast Guard boats.
- 7:25Speaker 1: Normally they got their shows several thousand kilometers away from it.
- 7:29Speaker 1: I think the United States, which is a kind of
- 7:32Speaker 1: euphoria of impunity after the special operation in Venezuela. Can
- 7:36Speaker 1: only these be stopped now with such a click on
- 7:40Speaker 1: the nose? Yeah, let's let's let's risk World War three
- 7:43Speaker 1: by by bombing a few bye by you know, sinking
- 7:47Speaker 1: a few American ships. We'll see here, We'll see how
- 7:50Speaker 1: that goes, you know, generally, Uh, the military is I
- 7:58Speaker 1: guess Russian's are tick tough right now. I mean, here's
- 8:00Speaker 1: another another military blogger, uh commentator, propagandist out of Russia,
- 8:09Speaker 1: lamenting the state in which Russia is in right now. Quote,
- 8:13Speaker 1: We're dealing with the serious situation, the situation from which
- 8:16Speaker 1: there is no beautiful and simple solution, at least I
- 8:19Speaker 1: don't see such a solution from my couch. It's pretty
- 8:22Speaker 1: funny from his couch. We practice, we practically have no
- 8:27Speaker 1: leverage over the United States of America except for nuclear weapons.
- 8:32Speaker 1: We're either We're neither China nor the Soviet Union, and
- 8:37Speaker 1: no one will be the winner in a nuclear war.
- 8:40Speaker 1: At this stage. The United States is simply stronger and
- 8:44Speaker 1: does what it wants in its hemisphere. That is a fact.
- 8:49Speaker 1: Some realism. Uh that that's called political realism out of
- 8:54Speaker 1: out of uh, out of Russia. So yeah, the Russians
- 8:59Speaker 1: are taken aback. They are they are unhappy, and they
- 9:05Speaker 1: don't but they have nothing. They can't do anything about it.
- 9:07Speaker 1: They literally have nothing to do with it. Nothing they
- 9:12Speaker 1: can do about it. Basically, as we'll talk about it
- 9:16Speaker 1: in a minute, the United States has as for control
- 9:20Speaker 1: over Venezuela and exports of oil out of the country.
- 9:24Speaker 1: They control the shipping lanes out of Venezuela. They're preventing
- 9:28Speaker 1: ships from leaving. We'll talk about where they want the
- 9:31Speaker 1: oil to go to in a minute. Yep, you know,
- 9:39Speaker 1: here's another of these Russian Russian military bloggers. In the end,
- 9:44Speaker 1: we ourselves created problems, first calling the tank our own
- 9:48Speaker 1: flag and urging not to touch it, and then after
- 9:52Speaker 1: attempts to capture this tanka, we were unable to do
- 9:55Speaker 1: anything to protect it. Once again, it turned out that
- 9:58Speaker 1: empty diplomatic statements don't scare anyone anymore. Now all that
- 10:02Speaker 1: remains is to evade and complain to the United Nations.
- 10:06Speaker 1: An attempt to demonstrate one's strength not backed by real strength,
- 10:12Speaker 1: turned out to be just a joke. That is Russia.
- 10:17Speaker 1: That is Russia at the end of the day, just
- 10:20Speaker 1: a joke anyway. It turns out that we're getting We're
- 10:25Speaker 1: getting now a better outline of the United States's plan
- 10:31Speaker 1: for Venezuela, in particular for Venezuela and oil. It does
- 10:35Speaker 1: seem like this is all about the oil, at least
- 10:38Speaker 1: in Donald Trump's view. Marco Ruby is still making noises
- 10:41Speaker 1: about stabilization and about moving towards reforms and and and
- 10:47Speaker 1: and and stuff like that. But Donald Trump doesn't care
- 10:49Speaker 1: about any of that, and I doubt that any of
- 10:52Speaker 1: that is really on the table. Trump is interested in
- 10:55Speaker 1: the oil, and he has a plan out. He has
- 10:58Speaker 1: a plan. This is what he posted. I am police
- 11:02Speaker 1: announce that the interim authorities in Venezuela will be turning
- 11:06Speaker 1: over between thirty and fifty million barrels of high quality,
- 11:12Speaker 1: sanctioned oil to the United States of America. I don't
- 11:15Speaker 1: know about this high quality. This is that heavy oil, right.
- 11:19Speaker 1: This oil will be sold at them at its market price,
- 11:23Speaker 1: and that money will be controlled by me. I mean
- 11:27Speaker 1: not me, me, as in President Trump, as President of
- 11:31Speaker 1: the United States of America, to ensure it is used
- 11:35Speaker 1: to benefit the people of Venezuela and the United States.
- 11:38Speaker 1: I've asked Energy Secretary of Chrisuite to execute this plan immediately.
- 11:43Speaker 1: It will be taken by storage ships. Storage ships don't
- 11:47Speaker 1: transport oil, but that's another issue, and well directly to
- 11:51Speaker 1: uploading unloading docks in the United States. Thank you for
- 11:55Speaker 1: your attention on this matter. So basically, Trump is declared
- 11:59Speaker 1: that not only is the United States taking over thirty
- 12:03Speaker 1: to fifty million barrels of oil, it will sell it
- 12:09Speaker 1: and it will pocket the money, and Donald Trump will
- 12:12Speaker 1: then decide how that money is going to be distributed
- 12:15Speaker 1: to the benefit of Venezuela and the United States. Chris
- 12:20Speaker 1: Wright today speaking at a investment making conference I think
- 12:26Speaker 1: in New York City, basically, you know, said something similar
- 12:32Speaker 1: but even more expansive. He said, instead of oil being
- 12:37Speaker 1: blocked blockaded, that is stuck it as it is right now.
- 12:43Speaker 1: We're going to let the oil float to the United
- 12:46Speaker 1: States refineries and around the world to bring better oil supply,
- 12:50Speaker 1: but have those sales done by the US government. So
- 12:53Speaker 1: the US government is not becoming a global oil trade
- 13:00Speaker 1: selling venetzuil and oil. So the United States, as I
- 13:06Speaker 1: don't know, central planner in chief again, is going to
- 13:09Speaker 1: be selling venezuel and oil on the world market. It's
- 13:12Speaker 1: going to come to the United States maybe go directly
- 13:15Speaker 1: to other countries, but see the United States will determine
- 13:18Speaker 1: which countries and at what prices and actually doing the selling.
- 13:25Speaker 1: He goes on, We're going to market the coude coming
- 13:27Speaker 1: out of Venezuela first, this backed up stored oil. I
- 13:32Speaker 1: think the backup stored oil is the thirty to fifty
- 13:35Speaker 1: million barrels. And then indefinitely, going forward, we will sell
- 13:40Speaker 1: the production it comes out of Venezuela into the marketplace.
- 13:43Speaker 1: So note, we're not not talking about American oil companies
- 13:47Speaker 1: coming in and extracting oil and selling it and doing
- 13:50Speaker 1: all that paying qualities to the Venezuelans. Now we're talking
- 13:56Speaker 1: about indefinitely. That's according to Chris Right, Secretary of Energy, Indefinitely,
- 14:02Speaker 1: the United States is going to be selling Venezuela and
- 14:05Speaker 1: oil on global markets. The United States, as a government,
- 14:12Speaker 1: not as a series of OI companies, is now a
- 14:17Speaker 1: player in oil markets. Not just in the past. The
- 14:22Speaker 1: US did this with its kind of national reserve, the
- 14:25Speaker 1: emergency national reserve. They'd release it or prices would come down,
- 14:28Speaker 1: they'd buy in order to Now now we're literally going
- 14:31Speaker 1: to take Venezuela and oil and sell it around the world.
- 14:34Speaker 1: It's just I mean, Central Planning chief is is something
- 14:41Speaker 1: for the for this administration. Now, the thirty fifty billion
- 14:53Speaker 1: could yield up to two and a half billion dollars.
- 14:55Speaker 1: The thirty to fifty million dollars of oil. Now, the
- 15:00Speaker 1: proceeds of the sale would supposedly go into use controlled
- 15:04Speaker 1: accounts at globally recognize banks to guarantee the legitimacy and
- 15:09Speaker 1: intiguity of the ultimate distribution of the proceeds. This is
- 15:12Speaker 1: what Chris Wright says. Now, I don't know that this
- 15:18Speaker 1: fits exactly what Donald Trump's saying. I get to decide
- 15:22Speaker 1: it's I will decide who it goes to, where it
- 15:26Speaker 1: goes to. I get decide how that money is used.
- 15:29Speaker 1: There's a constitutional problem with that. It is, after all,
- 15:33Speaker 1: the power of the post does not lie with the president.
- 15:36Speaker 1: The power of the post lies with Congress. Money that
- 15:39Speaker 1: comes into the United States is handed over to Treasury
- 15:46Speaker 1: and then becomes part of general revenue. The president doesn't
- 15:50Speaker 1: have a pool of money. He gets there. He has
- 15:52Speaker 1: a little bit of venezuela. Here's a little to my
- 15:55Speaker 1: friends and family. He has a little bit to us texpayers.
- 15:58Speaker 1: He doesn't get to do that it's not his job. Again, Trump,
- 16:04Speaker 1: assuming he's an authoritarian dictator. He's not, so he can't
- 16:08Speaker 1: do it. Chris Waite, who's much more reasonable and I
- 16:16Speaker 1: assume much more rational than Trump is, is laying out
- 16:20Speaker 1: somewhat different scenario where the money would going to international
- 16:23Speaker 1: financial institutions and its allocation will be preset. It won't
- 16:27Speaker 1: be at the whim and complete discretion of just Donald Trump. Supposedly,
- 16:35Speaker 1: the first fifty million barrels already sitting in barrels, either
- 16:42Speaker 1: on ships that are being quarantined by the United States
- 16:48Speaker 1: or in storage ready to be shipped. So the idea
- 16:56Speaker 1: is that they would all all these ships will be
- 16:59Speaker 1: funneled to the United States or funnel to wherever the
- 17:02Speaker 1: United States the side based on the deals that the
- 17:06Speaker 1: United States cuts with other governments of the companies, whatever
- 17:10Speaker 1: that turns out to be, and that this will continue indefinitely, indefinitely,
- 17:20Speaker 1: This takeover of Venezuela and oil by the US government,
- 17:25Speaker 1: not in competition to US all companies, but directly to
- 17:30Speaker 1: the US government. You know, it's kind of unprecedented. I
- 17:32Speaker 1: don't think we've ever done anything like this. The US
- 17:36Speaker 1: is basically nationalizing for itself, the oil that was nationalized
- 17:41Speaker 1: by Venezuela when they kicked out US all companies. Now,
- 17:46Speaker 1: you know, we'll see, we'll see what happens. I have
- 17:50Speaker 1: a lot of respect for Chris Wright. I mean, he
- 17:53Speaker 1: is an oil guy. He knows what he's doing, but
- 17:57Speaker 1: this is not his job. He is not sexier of
- 18:01Speaker 1: the energy. Is not supposed to be an oil trade up.
- 18:04Speaker 1: It's not to be supposed to be selling other countries oils.
- 18:09Speaker 1: It sucks, like exactly what this is all about. And again,
- 18:12Speaker 1: if there is revenue from this, it should be flowing
- 18:15Speaker 1: to the treasury, not at Trump or right, so anybody
- 18:21Speaker 1: else's discretion right As also said that he's in discussions
- 18:27Speaker 1: with USL companies about the conditions for them to return
- 18:32Speaker 1: to Venezuela. He stated that restoring historical production levels in
- 18:39Speaker 1: the country is going to require a massive amount of
- 18:41Speaker 1: investment and a huge amount of time. It's not going
- 18:44Speaker 1: to happen quickly. This is going to happen over years,
- 18:48Speaker 1: maybe a decade. And the reality is the industry, the
- 18:52Speaker 1: oil industry, is not eager to go back. We talked
- 18:57Speaker 1: about this, I think yesterday. Very high capital requirements projected
- 19:03Speaker 1: by analysts to be in the billions, uh, just to
- 19:09Speaker 1: just to recover and revive the dilapidated state of Venezuela's
- 19:15Speaker 1: oil oil sector. Who's going to guarantee personal security? Is
- 19:20Speaker 1: the US going to put troops on the ground in
- 19:23Speaker 1: the oil fields to secure h oil employees of these
- 19:30Speaker 1: old companies going there? I mean that's problematic. Again, these
- 19:35Speaker 1: oil fields are in the hotline of of of Venezuela.
- 19:39Speaker 1: Some on the shore, some of them kind of close
- 19:45Speaker 1: to the mountains. These areas you don't want to have
- 19:49Speaker 1: ground troops there. You really do not want to have
- 19:52Speaker 1: ground troops there fighting Venezuela and guerrillas. Who's gonna who's
- 19:58Speaker 1: gonna take uh, you know, physical security, Who's gonna Who's
- 20:04Speaker 1: going to guarantee political stability? The United States is not
- 20:08Speaker 1: occupying Venezuela, so political stability depends on what happens in
- 20:12Speaker 1: Caracas and the whole payment system. Who pays currency anyway,
- 20:22Speaker 1: we will see. Now. In addition, Wright said, now, in
- 20:25Speaker 1: order to get oil out of the ground in Venezuela,
- 20:30Speaker 1: you actually have to use light. Well, no, in order
- 20:35Speaker 1: to make the oil transportable, you actually have to blend it.
- 20:40Speaker 1: The oil in Venezuela is so heavy you have to
- 20:43Speaker 1: actually blend it with light crude oil in order to actually,
- 20:50Speaker 1: you know, make it transportable. Wright said that the United
- 20:55Speaker 1: States is going to provide the light crude oil in
- 20:59Speaker 1: order to blend with the heavy oil in order to
- 21:01Speaker 1: get it out of them. So we're basically running the
- 21:05Speaker 1: Venezuela and oil industry. I mean, this is all assuming
- 21:09Speaker 1: Venezuela is going along with this and will fully cooperate. Supposedly,
- 21:17Speaker 1: the administration is going to market the Venezuela incrude oil
- 21:19Speaker 1: through commodity brokers and in world markets. And yeah, I
- 21:26Speaker 1: mean all this, I guess is being planned and negotiated
- 21:31Speaker 1: as we speak. But it really, you know it really
- 21:37Speaker 1: it's not clear. Again, it goes back to why this
- 21:40Speaker 1: was all done. It's not clear what the hell is
- 21:43Speaker 1: going on, why this is being done, what the purpose is,
- 21:48Speaker 1: and what's to be achieved. Suppose the all executives have
- 21:54Speaker 1: been invited to the White House to have a discussion.
- 21:57Speaker 1: They are very weary of this because their message ultimately
- 22:03Speaker 1: is this is too hot, too expensive. The other oil
- 22:11Speaker 1: fields around the world that we could be extracting all
- 22:14Speaker 1: from that would be more profitable for US, safer for US,
- 22:18Speaker 1: easier for US. This is going to require, as I said,
- 22:21Speaker 1: tens of billions of dollars and a decade to completely
- 22:25Speaker 1: rebuild those oil fields. Why would we do that when
- 22:28Speaker 1: they're much easier places to invest our money right now? Again,
- 22:36Speaker 1: a mess nobe plan, typical Trump, a lot of bravado,
- 22:42Speaker 1: a lot of chest thumping, but not much. The good
- 22:47Speaker 1: news is. The good news is that China is pissed off.
- 22:52Speaker 1: China accuses US of stealing its oil. Now, part of
- 22:55Speaker 1: the problem here is that China claims that it's already
- 22:59Speaker 1: paid for this oil, that it already paid Venezuela and
- 23:02Speaker 1: it's oil, it's given Venezuela loans and it's given and
- 23:06Speaker 1: it's uh, it's paid straight out, a big chunk of it. Uh.
- 23:12Speaker 1: They have a loan for oil deal with the Madua regime,
- 23:19Speaker 1: and now they can't get the oil. There's a blockade. Uh.
- 23:25Speaker 1: You know, the the Chinese are not going to be
- 23:27Speaker 1: able to get get through the blockade. This shows the
- 23:32Speaker 1: inability of China to project power beyond the South China Sea. So,
- 23:40Speaker 1: you know, China's upset. They've lost billions in oil. Uh,
- 23:46Speaker 1: and and they've lost access. Now again, Venezuela is not
- 23:52Speaker 1: a major source of Chinese oil. However, if there was
- 23:59Speaker 1: ever conflict with the West and the West got the
- 24:02Speaker 1: Middle East to boycott China, then Venezuela would become a
- 24:10Speaker 1: major source. Now it won't because now Trump controls it.
- 24:15Speaker 1: So that is the one upside of what happened in
- 24:18Speaker 1: terms of just increased control over Chinese oil, which might
- 24:26Speaker 1: be a restraint over Chinese aggression. All right, let me
- 24:33Speaker 1: see if there's anything else. Yeah, Rubio is in Congress
- 24:36Speaker 1: right now explaining to them two things. One, We're not
- 24:40Speaker 1: gonna go to Greenland. We're not gonna invade Greenland. We're
- 24:43Speaker 1: gonna buy it from Denmark. We're putting together package very attractive.
- 24:47Speaker 1: We're gonna buy it from Denmark. Nobody's talking about military invasion.
- 24:50Speaker 1: That's what Rubio says, as Trump is talking about and
- 24:53Speaker 1: Miller is talking about occupying it. So there's no question
- 24:57Speaker 1: Rubio is the more reasonable guy, most reasonable guy in
- 25:00Speaker 1: the administration. I don't think he's very good or very knowledgeable,
- 25:05Speaker 1: but he's the most reasonable of all of them. Right,
- 25:12Speaker 1: But he is. He is. He is also trying to
- 25:17Speaker 1: convince Congress that they have a process for Venezuela. They
- 25:22Speaker 1: know what they're doing. There's a plan. The plan has
- 25:25Speaker 1: three stages. You know. First step is stabilizing the country.
- 25:28Speaker 1: Second phase is going to be recovery, which is oil
- 25:32Speaker 1: and making sure that the West has access to Venezuela
- 25:35Speaker 1: and markets. In the first phase will be a transition
- 25:37Speaker 1: to a freer society. That is that is the plan
- 25:42Speaker 1: we will see. Yeah, Venezuela and markets have gone through
- 25:48Speaker 1: the roof. Venezuelan markets are very thin. It doesn't take much.
- 25:52Speaker 1: Thin means not a lot of liquidity, so it doesn't
- 25:56Speaker 1: take much trading to drive prices way up, which is
- 26:00Speaker 1: what's happening. I don't think this is going up because
- 26:03Speaker 1: of big volume players coming in buying a lot of
- 26:07Speaker 1: a lot of stocks. But yeah, the probability of Venezuela
- 26:13Speaker 1: becoming a wealthy, you know, freeer place has gone from
- 26:19Speaker 1: I don't know, five percent to let's say thirty five percent.
- 26:24Speaker 1: That justifies a huge increase in the stock market. It
- 26:27Speaker 1: doesn't mean certainty, it doesn't mean even high probability. It
- 26:31Speaker 1: just means much better. Now. Chevron is up sharply because
- 26:36Speaker 1: Chevron is the one to zero company that is already
- 26:39Speaker 1: operating American old company that already operates in Venezuela. So
- 26:44Speaker 1: it is now in even a better situation because it
- 26:48Speaker 1: is now in a sense protected by the US government
- 26:52Speaker 1: at least implicitly, and potentially in a position to exploit
- 26:57Speaker 1: it's existing positioning in Venezuela to make more money. And
- 27:03Speaker 1: and if if the United States can start selling the
- 27:07Speaker 1: oil that Chevron is shipping out in world markets, if
- 27:11Speaker 1: if basically the embargo on sales of Venezuelan and oil
- 27:16Speaker 1: is lifted because America is selling that oil, then Chevron
- 27:19Speaker 1: will make a lot of money. So it makes complete
- 27:22Speaker 1: sense that Chevron's stock is is way up. Uh. But
- 27:29Speaker 1: it's it's just it's just yeah, it's just the whole
- 27:33Speaker 1: thing is fairly crazy. And again, while Trump is committing
- 27:40Speaker 1: and and uh and telling everybody that USL company is
- 27:43Speaker 1: going to go in and they're gonna upgrade and they're
- 27:45Speaker 1: gonna make the Venezuela and oil fields super dupa, the
- 27:49Speaker 1: oil companies are not interested. They don't want it, and
- 27:53Speaker 1: and and they don't want to and they and they're
- 27:55Speaker 1: going to go into the White House and have to
- 27:57Speaker 1: tell Trump this to his face, Believe me, they are
- 28:02Speaker 1: not not looking forward to it. All right, let's quick
- 28:09Speaker 1: update from Iran. There's not a lot to update. I'll
- 28:13Speaker 1: just say demonstrations are indeed continuing. From what I can tell,
- 28:17Speaker 1: we have not reached a tipping point. It's hard to
- 28:22Speaker 1: tell to what extent We're getting closer to that tipping point,
- 28:26Speaker 1: but we have not reached a tipping point. There are
- 28:31Speaker 1: stories that there are now two cities in Iran that
- 28:36Speaker 1: are being taken over by demonstrators, that they have overrun
- 28:41Speaker 1: police stations and authority buildings, and the demonstrators control two cities.
- 28:47Speaker 1: I don't know again how much of that is true
- 28:49Speaker 1: and what that means, right, I mean, maybe there was
- 28:52Speaker 1: no there was no other than police, there was no
- 28:55Speaker 1: real arms there. And what happens when the Islamic Revolutionary
- 28:59Speaker 1: guards up and stuff like that, we don't know. Also,
- 29:03Speaker 1: there are indications that the Curds. I mentioned this yesterday,
- 29:05Speaker 1: the Kurdish. The Kurds are getting more aggressive. They've now
- 29:10Speaker 1: made a public statement about their right to self defense
- 29:13Speaker 1: and that if the Iranian military units are sent into
- 29:19Speaker 1: the area, they will fight them. And supposedly they've already
- 29:23Speaker 1: engaged in firefights against the Iranian military or Revolutionary God.
- 29:29Speaker 1: How to tell. In the areas of northwest Iran, the
- 29:35Speaker 1: demonstrations are still quite large. They're not getting smaller, They're
- 29:40Speaker 1: not getting massively bigger, which it needs to happen again
- 29:43Speaker 1: for that tipping point, demonstrations have to be even bigger
- 29:46Speaker 1: than they are right now. Particularly the key now is
- 29:50Speaker 1: Tehran and maybe a couple of other major cities. Maybe
- 29:55Speaker 1: you know, workers in the oil fields would have to
- 29:56Speaker 1: strike that I think would would have a bi potentially
- 30:01Speaker 1: a significant influence. And of course the typic one will
- 30:05Speaker 1: come will come when, if, and when units within the
- 30:10Speaker 1: military basically switched sides, units within the military are willing
- 30:17Speaker 1: to actually engage in violence on behalf of the demonstrators,
- 30:22Speaker 1: either protecting them or in taking over government facilities into
- 30:25Speaker 1: Hran or in significant units around. So we need military
- 30:32Speaker 1: not police. Police is not very effective in Iran. You've
- 30:36Speaker 1: got the you've got the Islamic Revolutionary God, which I
- 30:39Speaker 1: don't expect to defect. You've got the budget. But Bijecau
- 30:43Speaker 1: whatever I can't pronounce their name. These are power military
- 30:47Speaker 1: units that he used to suppress the local population. This
- 30:51Speaker 1: is what Israel. They blew up three of their bases
- 30:54Speaker 1: into Hran and killed a lot of them. I don't
- 30:57Speaker 1: expect them to defect. I do expect military to defect.
- 31:01Speaker 1: The regular military. That is where the action will be.
- 31:05Speaker 1: That is who is potentially going to defect. You know,
- 31:09Speaker 1: you could see is so so uh some of those.
- 31:12Speaker 1: You can see more moderates within the within a regime defecting. Yeah,
- 31:19Speaker 1: and and and we will see. So the tipping point
- 31:21Speaker 1: will come when when there is a militarized units on
- 31:26Speaker 1: the side of fighting on the side of the protesters.
- 31:29Speaker 1: Whi's not just one sided when it comes to weapons.
- 31:32Speaker 1: Now again, some police forces in some of the smaller
- 31:35Speaker 1: towns have handed over their weapons and basically surrendered and
- 31:40Speaker 1: and be taken over. But that hasn't happened in large
- 31:43Speaker 1: scale uh in Tehran. So I still don't see the
- 31:48Speaker 1: tipping point. But the Ranians so far, at least again
- 31:53Speaker 1: from what I can tell from here, which unfortunately is
- 31:57Speaker 1: not as much as I would like, not giving up.
- 32:01Speaker 1: They're continuing to demonstrate. They continue to go out in
- 32:04Speaker 1: the streets. I think the main job of the son
- 32:08Speaker 1: of the Shaw right now, the main job of the
- 32:10Speaker 1: son of the show right now is uh is to
- 32:14Speaker 1: try to convince military commanders to flip sites. So again
- 32:24Speaker 1: the towns of Abdanan and mak Shahi in western Iran
- 32:31Speaker 1: have been liberated and uh hamonies, you know, government forces fled.
- 32:37Speaker 1: UH protests are chanted death to hominy and uh you
- 32:42Speaker 1: know that happened yesterday. You know, we will see uh,
- 32:46Speaker 1: we will see, uh, we will see. You know what happens.
- 32:52Speaker 1: Women Uh heavily involved in many of the demonstrations, many
- 32:56Speaker 1: women taking off their jobs, waving it in the face,
- 33:00Speaker 1: is of the of the government troops, crowds rallying around
- 33:04Speaker 1: them in support. It is. It is really powerful. Now.
- 33:09Speaker 1: Of course, the Iranian regime had already loosened up the
- 33:12Speaker 1: rules in terms of in terms of their jobs, so
- 33:19Speaker 1: out of the out of the goals revolution. I'm seeing
- 33:22Speaker 1: videos coming out of Iran of protesters tackling Islamic Republican
- 33:28Speaker 1: agents in various cities. I'm looking at video right now
- 33:32Speaker 1: for mister Fun and Uh, I mean it's the fun.
- 33:35Speaker 1: It's one of those key cities with Coom and Tehran
- 33:38Speaker 1: that are gonna and and maybe a couple of others
- 33:40Speaker 1: that that are going to have to fall in a sense,
- 33:44Speaker 1: not only are they beating up some of the uh,
- 33:49Speaker 1: some of these thugs that the regime has hired, but
- 33:52Speaker 1: they're also taking their weapons. So you know, we will uh,
- 34:02Speaker 1: we will see. But uh, it's it's God. There's a
- 34:09Speaker 1: there's another video of a guy with a flamethrower basically
- 34:13Speaker 1: setting fire to h you know, people from the regime
- 34:18Speaker 1: on motorcycles and then running away being chased by the motorcycles.
- 34:23Speaker 1: So I don't think I don't know what his fate
- 34:26Speaker 1: is going to be. Yeah, it will, we will see,
- 34:31Speaker 1: we will see. Uh. The supposedly the Iranian national team
- 34:44Speaker 1: was playing soccer and it's the national game today or yesterday,
- 34:49Speaker 1: and uh, the the players refuse to sing the national anthem.
- 34:56Speaker 1: So again little little signs of of rebellion that are there.
- 35:02Speaker 1: But that's happened before, didn't lead to the machine fauling,
- 35:05Speaker 1: So we're still waiting for that, for that tipping point
- 35:08Speaker 1: to happen. Was still waiting for for this to get
- 35:10Speaker 1: so big, so substantial, that that you know, it cannot
- 35:16Speaker 1: be stopped, all right, right, that is Iran h quickly
- 35:32Speaker 1: on Ukraine. There is some indication that Trump is again
- 35:41Speaker 1: in the midst of ah some indication. Does RAN think
- 35:49Speaker 1: this was about drugs. I never thought this was about drugs.
- 35:53Speaker 1: I said that was the excuse they were using in
- 35:55Speaker 1: order to make it seem like it was legal. I
- 35:58Speaker 1: never thought it was about drugs, and plain why it
- 36:01Speaker 1: made no difference. Drugs make no difference, and it would
- 36:03Speaker 1: have made no difference. But that's the excuse Trump administration
- 36:07Speaker 1: is using to assert the legality of it. That's all.
- 36:12Speaker 1: I never argued it was about drugs. The the Trumpet
- 36:21Speaker 1: administration seems to be in one of those phases where
- 36:25Speaker 1: they where they are not happy with Putin. As a consequence,
- 36:31Speaker 1: it seems like the Special Envoy with Coffin, Jared Kushna,
- 36:36Speaker 1: who are right now in Europe talking to US allies
- 36:41Speaker 1: about Ukraine and talking to Zelensky and USE allies around
- 36:45Speaker 1: Ukraine a much more Ukraine and Europe friendly than they
- 36:49Speaker 1: were just a couple just a few weeks ago. They
- 36:52Speaker 1: are discussing right now a multi national peacekeeping force and
- 36:59Speaker 1: the Americans agreeing for the first time to a much
- 37:03Speaker 1: more robust security guarantees for Ukraine and that these guarantees
- 37:11Speaker 1: will be similar to those under NATO's Article five would
- 37:15Speaker 1: commit the United States commit the United States to come
- 37:18Speaker 1: to Ukraine's defense in the event of any future attack
- 37:20Speaker 1: by Russia. This would be something that would kick into
- 37:23Speaker 1: place once there was a cease file. Although I don't
- 37:27Speaker 1: know who is delusional enough to think that there's going
- 37:29Speaker 1: to be a cease fire. Well, I mean, one possibility
- 37:32Speaker 1: is that Putin decides that really things are futile, any
- 37:36Speaker 1: better have a ceasefire. The reality is that, you know,
- 37:40Speaker 1: the Russian war machine is grinding to Holt and the
- 37:44Speaker 1: Ukrainians actually making localized on a localized basis, and certain
- 37:49Speaker 1: parts of the parts of the fund making progress against
- 37:52Speaker 1: the Russians. You know, Russian troops are exhausted that under
- 38:00Speaker 1: they do not have. They're under equipped. Basically, the armored
- 38:06Speaker 1: vehicles have been destroyed. There are very few Soviet era
- 38:11Speaker 1: tanks left. Their production is a fraction, a tiny fraction
- 38:18Speaker 1: of what it was a long time ago. You know,
- 38:22Speaker 1: they're unequipped. The commanders don't care about their lives, so
- 38:27Speaker 1: they're unmotivated. Uh, And it's not going off for Russia
- 38:32Speaker 1: on the front. In battle. It was you know, a
- 38:36Speaker 1: couple of months ago and they claimed they captured the
- 38:39Speaker 1: strategic city. Since then, they've been kicked out of this
- 38:42Speaker 1: town completely, and Ukraine has been making progress on a
- 38:45Speaker 1: number of different fronts. Europe is backing Ukraine's war effort.
- 38:52Speaker 1: The United States is not. Europe is back in but
- 38:56Speaker 1: steadily systematically. And Europe is much hard to emphasize this enough,
- 39:02Speaker 1: much much much richer than Russia. I mean, what's keeping
- 39:08Speaker 1: the Russian war machine going right now is not Russia,
- 39:12Speaker 1: It's China. Russia is completely right now dependent on China
- 39:16Speaker 1: supplying it with defense, with defense components to be able
- 39:22Speaker 1: to build whatever it is that it needs building. Without China,
- 39:26Speaker 1: it collapses. And think about what's happened at Russia recently.
- 39:31Speaker 1: Right They've lost Syria and they've lost it looks like Venezuela,
- 39:44Speaker 1: and they might very well be losing you on what
- 39:50Speaker 1: do they have left? North Korea and China? And it's
- 39:55Speaker 1: not clear to me that China is just going to
- 39:56Speaker 1: give them blank check. There's actually people in China right now,
- 40:01Speaker 1: like podcasters and influencers in China right now, advocating heavily
- 40:08Speaker 1: for China to take Eastern Russia like it's it's Chinese
- 40:14Speaker 1: territory going back. I don't know how long you want
- 40:16Speaker 1: to go back. But it's it's it's originally Chinese territory
- 40:19Speaker 1: they're claiming, and we should just take it. Russia's weak.
- 40:22Speaker 1: Russia can't do anything about it. We can practice war
- 40:25Speaker 1: unless just take eastern Russia. Why are we helping Russia
- 40:28Speaker 1: fight on the western Russia is really an enemy of ours.
- 40:35Speaker 1: Russia has you know, it can't really utilize Cuba in
- 40:40Speaker 1: any meaningful way. I mean, basically, Russia is a collapsing country,
- 40:44Speaker 1: a collapsing power. All it has is an aging nuclear arsenal.
- 40:51Speaker 1: That's it. Nothing else. And you know, if Trump, if
- 41:04Speaker 1: Trump was a good negotiator, if Trump could think, and
- 41:09Speaker 1: if he had decent people around him, then he would
- 41:12Speaker 1: enter any negotiation with Russia understanding how weak Russia really is,
- 41:18Speaker 1: and Cramedy ill down there throat it would be very easy.
- 41:22Speaker 1: And if the United States decided to open the figots
- 41:25Speaker 1: up of a to Ukraine Russia, the Russian Front would
- 41:29Speaker 1: collapse and Russia would go into economic spiral. It would
- 41:34Speaker 1: be very difficult for them to get out of. Some
- 41:38Speaker 1: people around Putin know this. Thither people Trump should be
- 41:42Speaker 1: talking to and push them to end this on Ukraine's terms,
- 41:49Speaker 1: not on Russia's terms. All right, let's move to domestic
- 41:56Speaker 1: some domestic policy stories. So I mean this one is
- 41:59Speaker 1: just I find this just terrific. We talked about January
- 42:04Speaker 1: sixth yesterday and my views on January sixth. Anyway, it
- 42:07Speaker 1: turns out that yesterday the White House published a website
- 42:12Speaker 1: rewriting the history of January sixth and really trying to
- 42:22Speaker 1: completely reshape the narrative around what happened that day. They
- 42:29Speaker 1: want to rewrite history. Now, notice this isn't just a
- 42:32Speaker 1: maga group doing this. It isn't even a school district
- 42:37Speaker 1: doing this. This is the government of the United States.
- 42:41Speaker 1: This is the executive branch of the government of the
- 42:43Speaker 1: United States issuing its version of history. According to this version,
- 42:53Speaker 1: Democrats and some Republicans have engaged in a witch hunt
- 42:57Speaker 1: against Donald Trump over January sixth. According to them, you know,
- 43:09Speaker 1: Special Council Jack Smith told Dallas Committee you know was
- 43:16Speaker 1: the vehicle by which this witch hunt was exercised. Now,
- 43:20Speaker 1: as we talked about another show, Jack Smith said that no,
- 43:25Speaker 1: he had plenty of evidence against against it, against Trump
- 43:30Speaker 1: and thought he could have won a conviction. To quote Smith,
- 43:36Speaker 1: the evidence he had made clear that President Trump was
- 43:39Speaker 1: by a large measure, the most culpable and most responsible
- 43:41Speaker 1: person in this conspiracy. These crimes were committed for his belief.
- 43:46Speaker 1: The attack that happened at the Capitol part of this
- 43:49Speaker 1: case does not happen without him. But Trump is denying anything.
- 43:54Speaker 1: It wasn't a riot, it was just a demonstration. It
- 43:57Speaker 1: was peaceful. According to the White House website, zero law
- 44:03Speaker 1: enforcement officers lost their lives, in spite of the fact
- 44:07Speaker 1: that used capital officer Brian d Synic died the following
- 44:13Speaker 1: day after the sault on the riot. So who cares
- 44:16Speaker 1: about police? This is the law enforcement president who cares
- 44:19Speaker 1: about police. As long as it's done in my name,
- 44:21Speaker 1: it's all good. The fact that law enforcement was injured
- 44:27Speaker 1: is not mentioned in in any of this. Nothing is mentioned.
- 44:35Speaker 1: This was just a you know, this is just a
- 44:37Speaker 1: no big deal at all. I mean, I think this
- 44:44Speaker 1: is an embarrassment to the congressmen who were their embarrassment
- 44:48Speaker 1: to senators. Of course, they won't challenge Trump. The most
- 44:53Speaker 1: you'll get is John Thune is a majority leader saying
- 44:58Speaker 1: saying the Capitol police do a good, great job around here.
- 45:01Speaker 1: When asked about the website, I mean, these people are unbelievable. Cowards. Yeah,
- 45:13Speaker 1: the new website repeats the claim that Nancy Pelosi at
- 45:20Speaker 1: the time is to blame for the security lapses. No
- 45:24Speaker 1: basis for that exists. Uh and and uh you know
- 45:30Speaker 1: and and uh. It denies this idea that Trump didn't
- 45:36Speaker 1: do anything, sat in his hands for the whole time. Anyway,
- 45:42Speaker 1: this is the White House, the US government trying to
- 45:47Speaker 1: rewrite history. Probably not the first time it's happened in
- 45:49Speaker 1: American history, but still pretty despicable, disgusting, horrific, hobable thing.
- 45:56Speaker 1: And Congress is cowardice. Is worth mentioning and repeating and
- 46:05Speaker 1: reminding you of because it's really unbelievable. It's the most
- 46:09Speaker 1: cowardly Congress ever. These Republicans will go down in history
- 46:13Speaker 1: as the most cowardly politicians in American history. All right,
- 46:21Speaker 1: let's see. Oh good news. The Health and Human Services
- 46:29Speaker 1: today announced a new food pyramid. The government, who is
- 46:35Speaker 1: very good at telling you what you should eat and
- 46:37Speaker 1: at advising you about your own health, has now issued
- 46:41Speaker 1: a revised new health pymod. Now, it turns out the
- 46:45Speaker 1: sealth permod, to some extent at least much more aligns
- 46:49Speaker 1: with what I eat. So I'm going to tell you
- 46:51Speaker 1: my bias is in advance. It aligns with what I
- 46:54Speaker 1: eat and what I've come to the conclusion of in
- 46:58Speaker 1: terms of health and so on. But should we really
- 47:04Speaker 1: look for government to tell us what to eat? Here's
- 47:09Speaker 1: the new food permit. You see grains way at the bottom,
- 47:13Speaker 1: so you should need a lot of grains, very little grain.
- 47:15Speaker 1: Steak steak is right at the top end. Cheese and
- 47:18Speaker 1: chicken steak. Cheese and chicken, and a little bit of
- 47:21Speaker 1: broccoli and some carrots. Those are the things. And peas,
- 47:24Speaker 1: peas peas. They're big on peas peas in a bag
- 47:28Speaker 1: for some reason. Everything else you know, and you know
- 47:30Speaker 1: they're green beans here as well, and stuff olive oil
- 47:33Speaker 1: right in the middle here beautifully. I do I do
- 47:37Speaker 1: find it interesting that salmon is below the cheese and
- 47:40Speaker 1: below the steak. You'd think that would be reversed, but
- 47:43Speaker 1: what do I know. I don't know anything about you know,
- 47:45Speaker 1: And eggs are below and a vocado is below all this.
- 47:48Speaker 1: You think of vocado would be on top there somewhere,
- 47:51Speaker 1: But what do I know? Right, what do I know?
- 47:54Speaker 1: And here you have the government telling you what to eat,
- 47:59Speaker 1: and yeah, this is stupid and horrible. The government shouldn't
- 48:09Speaker 1: be in the business of telling us what to eat.
- 48:12Speaker 1: You should decide that for yourself. Talk to your doctor,
- 48:14Speaker 1: do some research, watch some TikTok videos. That's really really
- 48:18Speaker 1: important because you'll probably get the best advice from TikTok videos.
- 48:21Speaker 1: That's what most people do now, I'm serious. Talk to
- 48:23Speaker 1: your doctor. Figure it out. The past food pyramid was
- 48:32Speaker 1: probably pretty harmful telling you to eat a lot of grains.
- 48:37Speaker 1: But you know, I don't know that this is better protein,
- 48:43Speaker 1: dairy and healthy fat. Look at the fat on that steak.
- 48:47Speaker 1: Is that fat on that steak healthy fat? Does that count?
- 48:50Speaker 1: Need to be grain fat or grass fed or grain
- 48:53Speaker 1: fat or what fat? I mean? Do we really know? Nuts?
- 48:57Speaker 1: You notice nuts are really low in this right here
- 49:01Speaker 1: in the bottom. You know, shouldn't they be shouldn't they
- 49:05Speaker 1: be in the top? I don't know. What do I know?
- 49:08Speaker 1: Nuts make up a big chunk of my diet. So
- 49:11Speaker 1: I'm all for nuts being at the top of the
- 49:13Speaker 1: food pyramid, not at the very not at the not
- 49:16Speaker 1: low down. Yeah. Yeah, So you will say that the
- 49:23Speaker 1: grass fed beef, that fat is good, but to the
- 49:26Speaker 1: extent that that fat, that saturated fat, increases your ApoB
- 49:31Speaker 1: probably increases the chances of some calcification in the auto
- 49:35Speaker 1: reason heart disease, and who knows what else. I don't know.
- 49:38Speaker 1: I mean again, just me. I'm not a doctor, but
- 49:42Speaker 1: this is I don't think this represents consensus. I don't
- 49:45Speaker 1: think there should be consensus. And I think you should
- 49:48Speaker 1: decide about what to eat based on you, and based
- 49:54Speaker 1: on your blood work, and based on your consultation with
- 49:58Speaker 1: your doctor. Get the government out of our food, out
- 50:02Speaker 1: of our health, generally out of our food. So lean
- 50:08Speaker 1: beef is probably better for you, although you know lean
- 50:11Speaker 1: beef socks. In terms of flavor, the fat is where
- 50:14Speaker 1: all the good stuff is. But yeah, now, how much
- 50:19Speaker 1: of this is lobbying? How much is this is real?
- 50:24Speaker 1: I mean I know that that you know some people
- 50:27Speaker 1: believe in a carnivo diet and they do a cornivo diet,
- 50:30Speaker 1: but really stop. Also, to what extent do we think
- 50:37Speaker 1: that diet is universal? We should all eat the same thing?
- 50:42Speaker 1: Aren't we different? We have different biomes in our guts,
- 50:46Speaker 1: we have different metabolisms, we exercise differently, we have lots
- 50:49Speaker 1: of we just have different genes, We have lots of
- 50:51Speaker 1: different things. Should not diets? Be individualized anyway. You say
- 51:01Speaker 1: it's lobbying, but I'm suspicious. I don't think it's lobbying.
- 51:05Speaker 1: I think it's just what's his name, RFK succumbing to
- 51:11Speaker 1: the latest fat The latest fat is keto, the latest
- 51:13Speaker 1: fat is low cobb. That's the latest thing. And because
- 51:17Speaker 1: if you think about lobbying, who's more powerful in terms
- 51:19Speaker 1: of lobbying than the grain the corn lobby, the wheat lobby,
- 51:25Speaker 1: the Middle Eastern I mean, imagine what are all the
- 51:29Speaker 1: Midwestern Republican senator is going to say about this fruit pyramid.
- 51:34Speaker 1: They have been lobbying forever and ever to keep grains high.
- 51:41Speaker 1: So I don't know if this is lobbying or if
- 51:44Speaker 1: it's just the latest fatish dietary recommendations which might change
- 51:49Speaker 1: in five years or ten years or tomorrow. For all
- 51:53Speaker 1: we know, there is a science of nutrition, there is truth.
- 51:57Speaker 1: I just don't know if we've discovered the truth. And
- 52:00Speaker 1: I don't know that the government should be the arbitra
- 52:02Speaker 1: of tooths. You say the corn lobby, Oh my god,
- 52:08Speaker 1: the corn lobby is huge. It's like one of the
- 52:10Speaker 1: It's one of the most powerful lobbies in the United States,
- 52:14Speaker 1: much bigger than apax. You know, why do you have
- 52:17Speaker 1: corn syrup and you in your sodas because of the
- 52:19Speaker 1: corn lobby. You know, why are there huge tariffs and
- 52:27Speaker 1: importation of restrictions on sugar because of the corn lobby.
- 52:31Speaker 1: Why do we have ethanol in our in our gasoline
- 52:37Speaker 1: because of the corn lobby. Corn is a huge lobby,
- 52:44Speaker 1: and they want grains. They're full grains, not against grains.
- 52:49Speaker 1: All right, let's see what else we're hiring in housing.
- 52:52Speaker 1: Let's still hiring, and hiring. Data is coming out that
- 52:57Speaker 1: that hiring is is has actually been you know, really bad.
- 53:04Speaker 1: New data shows that new hiring, you know, the hiring
- 53:11Speaker 1: rates is the most alarming labor market signals today. Low
- 53:15Speaker 1: payroll growth, it's the lowest since the financial crisis, which
- 53:22Speaker 1: are really really hooting, you know, low hiring primarily hoots
- 53:27Speaker 1: young people. They're newly entering their labor market. Their employment
- 53:33Speaker 1: rates have fallen the past year. Young people, new people
- 53:37Speaker 1: entering the markets have gone down over the last over
- 53:40Speaker 1: the last year, much more than other age groups. So
- 53:44Speaker 1: sixteen to nineteen year olds, twenty to twenty four year olds,
- 53:47Speaker 1: you're seeing a negative increase in the people working. Other
- 53:52Speaker 1: age groups holding steady approximately not great, not growing, but
- 53:59Speaker 1: holding eddy And the only age group where it's really
- 54:03Speaker 1: increased seems to be the fifty five to fifty nine
- 54:07Speaker 1: age group. But again, hiring is at the lowest since
- 54:12Speaker 1: twenty eleven. And except for you know, the worst days
- 54:17Speaker 1: of the pandemic, and this kind of level of low
- 54:24Speaker 1: hiring is usually when unemployment is around eight percent. Unemployment
- 54:27Speaker 1: is only at four point six percent, So that's kind
- 54:30Speaker 1: of and this is not AI, this is all Trump policies,
- 54:37Speaker 1: this is all tariffs and you know stuff like that.
- 54:48Speaker 1: So yeah, hiring is not looking good. Job openings decline
- 54:55Speaker 1: to the lowest level in more than a year, consistent
- 54:57Speaker 1: with the idea of hiring, So it's not just hiring.
- 54:59Speaker 1: Last there are so less positions out there. For a
- 55:03Speaker 1: long time, there were lots of positions, hard to find
- 55:05Speaker 1: people to fail them. Now the positions are going and
- 55:09Speaker 1: the hiring is going in spite of the fact, by
- 55:11Speaker 1: the way, that we're kicking out a lot of illegal
- 55:14Speaker 1: immigrants who are working now. Whatever hiring is happening is
- 55:24Speaker 1: basically happening in healthcare, and it's happening at large firms.
- 55:31Speaker 1: As we've discussed, tariffs are particularly hood small to medium
- 55:35Speaker 1: sized private firms. They're the ones shedding workers. And this
- 55:39Speaker 1: also explains why the stock market is up. Stock market
- 55:42Speaker 1: is up because large firms are doing fine. Big business
- 55:46Speaker 1: is doing fine. They're shielded by a variety of different
- 55:50Speaker 1: means from the tariffs. They're the ones hiring small firms
- 55:54Speaker 1: firing medium firms stagnant. And again, most of the highest
- 56:03Speaker 1: we talked about this yesterday as well, are in the
- 56:06Speaker 1: healthcare space. In the healthcare space. All right, finally a
- 56:12Speaker 1: little bit on housing. And here's the point I want
- 56:15Speaker 1: to make about about this populism, populism, political populism of
- 56:21Speaker 1: the right, of the left, it doesn't really matter. Populism
- 56:25Speaker 1: is ideology. It can't even really call it an ideology.
- 56:30Speaker 1: Populism is a way of approaching economic issues based on
- 56:36Speaker 1: what is going to be popular, based on what the
- 56:38Speaker 1: people want, not based on water work, not based on
- 56:42Speaker 1: economic theory, not based on facts of reality, not based
- 56:45Speaker 1: on economics or data or anything, just based on what's popular. Well,
- 56:53Speaker 1: one of the big common perspectives on the housing crisis
- 56:59Speaker 1: is and this is used to be primarily a talking
- 57:03Speaker 1: point of the left and has become a talking point
- 57:05Speaker 1: in MAGA as well, is that the housing crisis as
- 57:08Speaker 1: a consequence of corporations, big business buying up lots of homes,
- 57:14Speaker 1: primarily single family homes, in buying up whole neighborhoods and
- 57:18Speaker 1: dominating single family homes. Now I've talked about this in
- 57:22Speaker 1: the past. I've shown you that that is all nonsense,
- 57:25Speaker 1: that data doesn't support it. Rents actually go down where
- 57:29Speaker 1: corporate housing corporations by large numbers of homes. The number
- 57:33Speaker 1: of homes being bought is so small relative to the
- 57:36Speaker 1: total number of homes on the market in America, it
- 57:40Speaker 1: really isn't significant. So we've covered all that, but it
- 57:43Speaker 1: doesn't matter. The economics don't matter. What matters is that
- 57:47Speaker 1: this is the popular belief. And the job of leaders
- 57:52Speaker 1: is not it turns out to lead. It's to you know,
- 57:58Speaker 1: basically popular beliefs, even when they're forced and stupid. So
- 58:08Speaker 1: here is what Donald Trump posted today. For a very
- 58:12Speaker 1: long time, buying and owning a home was considered the
- 58:15Speaker 1: pinnacle of the American dream. It was the reward for
- 58:18Speaker 1: working hard and doing the right thing. But now because
- 58:21Speaker 1: of the record high inflation caused by Joe Biden and
- 58:24Speaker 1: the Democrats in Congress, that American dream is increasingly out
- 58:27Speaker 1: of reach for far too many people, especially young Americans.
- 58:32Speaker 1: It is for that reason and much more. I wonder
- 58:35Speaker 1: what the much more is that I am immediately taking
- 58:38Speaker 1: steps to ban large institutional investors from buying more single
- 58:43Speaker 1: family homes, and I will be calling on Congress to
- 58:47Speaker 1: codify it. People live in homes dot of corporations. I
- 58:51Speaker 1: will discuss this topic further, including I would discuss this
- 58:57Speaker 1: stop being including further housing and affordability proposals and more,
- 59:00Speaker 1: at my speech in Davos in two weeks. What does
- 59:03Speaker 1: Davos care about this anyway? So you know, Trump too
- 59:09Speaker 1: is blaming big business for their rise in housing costs
- 59:12Speaker 1: in America. Why not for any reason this associated with facts, truth,
- 59:19Speaker 1: economics data, but because I guess that's what people expect
- 59:23Speaker 1: him to do. That's what people demand. So our central
- 59:29Speaker 1: planner in chief is going to stop corporations from buying homes.
- 59:34Speaker 1: I'm not try under what law he can do that.
- 59:36Speaker 1: I'm not sure under what regulation they can do that.
- 59:39Speaker 1: I'm not sure how if that holds up in court.
- 59:43Speaker 1: I guess if Congress passes a law, maybe they could
- 59:45Speaker 1: get away with it. It seems pretty horrific to me,
- 59:50Speaker 1: but maybe it can be done. But yeah, this is
- 59:56Speaker 1: the one of the greatest. I mean, no, we are
- 1:00:00Speaker 1: told by prominent people the greatest president in American history
- 1:00:05Speaker 1: is now prohibiting corporations from owning homes and getting into
- 1:00:11Speaker 1: the old business by selling, taking over and selling and
- 1:00:16Speaker 1: taking the money and redistributing it based on his ideas.
- 1:00:20Speaker 1: I mean, to hell with Congress, tell with property rights,
- 1:00:23Speaker 1: and to help with I don't know, I don't know
- 1:00:26Speaker 1: government not getting involved in the economy. But still greatest
- 1:00:29Speaker 1: president ever ever ever. All Right, thank you guys. That
- 1:00:40Speaker 1: is the news for this Wednesday, January seventh. I should
- 1:00:45Speaker 1: note one other thing about the date today. Today is
- 1:00:53Speaker 1: the Can I Do the Math right? Today is the
- 1:00:58Speaker 1: eleventh anniversary. It's eleventh anniversary of the run book show.
- 1:01:06Speaker 1: The show was launched on January seventh, twenty fifteen. It
- 1:01:15Speaker 1: is also the eleventh anniversary of the Charlie Hebdo massacre,
- 1:01:20Speaker 1: which of course was also January seventh, twenty fifteen. So
- 1:01:24Speaker 1: I've been going at it since twenty fifteen, and today
- 1:01:29Speaker 1: is the anniversary of the show. I don't know how
- 1:01:31Speaker 1: many shows I've done since then, since I do hundreds
- 1:01:35Speaker 1: a year. We're well over ten thousand live shows I think.
- 1:01:40Speaker 1: I mean well over one thousand shows live shows, I think,
- 1:01:44Speaker 1: although in the early days I did fewer, but now
- 1:01:47Speaker 1: I do a lot more than one hundred a year.
- 1:01:49Speaker 1: So yes, I mean, we're way, way over one thousand
- 1:01:51Speaker 1: shows a year since I started. Some of you I
- 1:01:55Speaker 1: know have been there from the beginning, listening and supporting.
- 1:02:00Speaker 1: Thank you to all of you, many many I've lost.
- 1:02:04Speaker 1: I've lost thousands of people over the years by not
- 1:02:08Speaker 1: embracing Trump, not embracing irrationality, not embracing a rejection of objectivism,
- 1:02:15Speaker 1: by sticking to objectivism. We've lost a lot of listeners
- 1:02:18Speaker 1: and a lot of money, but probably gain more ultimately
- 1:02:22Speaker 1: in the long run by sticking to principles. I should
- 1:02:27Speaker 1: have talked more about free speech today, but there was
- 1:02:29Speaker 1: these other topics. We will get back to free speech,
- 1:02:32Speaker 1: which was the topic of my first show, the Charlie
- 1:02:35Speaker 1: Hebdo Show, the day that Charlie Hebdo was attacked. But
- 1:02:39Speaker 1: we will get back to that topic, I promise. So
- 1:02:42Speaker 1: thank you to all of you guys who've been around.
- 1:02:44Speaker 1: We are launching some merchandise today, special anniversary merchandise of
- 1:02:53Speaker 1: the Iran Book Show. You can find that merchandise on
- 1:02:57Speaker 1: my YouTube store. If you go to YouTube, go to
- 1:03:00Speaker 1: my channel on YouTube. There is a there's a button
- 1:03:03Speaker 1: there for a store, uh, and you can click on
- 1:03:06Speaker 1: that and you can find a bunch of a bunch
- 1:03:10Speaker 1: of T shirts and mugs and hoodies and stuff like that,
- 1:03:16Speaker 1: and some Uh, I think there's a special YBS anniversary
- 1:03:20Speaker 1: ceramic mug there you go, so yes, so go buy
- 1:03:25Speaker 1: some yourn books soo, T shirts and hoodies and stuff
- 1:03:29Speaker 1: like that. And some of you already have some of
- 1:03:31Speaker 1: the merchandise. All right, Uh, let's see, yes, all right,
- 1:03:41Speaker 1: let me remind you of our sponsors. Alex Epstein is
- 1:03:48Speaker 1: is a has been a uh has been a sponsor
- 1:03:52Speaker 1: of the show for over a year now. Alex is
- 1:03:56Speaker 1: the leading thinker in the world really in issues relating
- 1:04:01Speaker 1: to oil, fossil fuels more generally energy, climate change, and environmentalism.
- 1:04:14Speaker 1: Alex has a substack alex Epstein substack dot com where
- 1:04:17Speaker 1: you will learn things about the industry, about the world,
- 1:04:21Speaker 1: about policy. Alexis of running by the way, a lobbying entity,
- 1:04:27Speaker 1: an entity lobbying on thehalf on behalf of freedom what
- 1:04:30Speaker 1: a concept. I don't know that anybody has ever had
- 1:04:33Speaker 1: an entire lobbying organization devoted to freedom freedom in the
- 1:04:37Speaker 1: realm of energy. But of course extrapolate from that everything.
- 1:04:40Speaker 1: I think he's actually hiring people to be lobbyists. So
- 1:04:45Speaker 1: if you guys know of anybody who has some knowledge
- 1:04:48Speaker 1: of the industry and would like to be a freedom
- 1:04:51Speaker 1: lobbyer in Washington, d C. For energy, then contact Alex.
- 1:04:56Speaker 1: I think he's got a referral feed out of like
- 1:04:58Speaker 1: fifty thousand dollars. So, uh, you know, uh, tell him,
- 1:05:02Speaker 1: I afford you. But yes, you should definitely contact Alex
- 1:05:07Speaker 1: and definitely tell him I referd you, Uh, Alex. And
- 1:05:11Speaker 1: substick is incredible. It's incredibly informative, educational uh and and
- 1:05:15Speaker 1: you will learn a lot from it. So head on
- 1:05:18Speaker 1: over to Alex Epstein dot substack dot dot com. All right,
- 1:05:25Speaker 1: what are we doing here? I was checking something else?
- 1:05:31Speaker 1: All right? What else we've got hand a Shot, handash
- 1:05:35Speaker 1: our wealth dot com, slash ybs and a shot wealth
- 1:05:39Speaker 1: as products. They can save you a lot of money
- 1:05:42Speaker 1: on on capital gains taxes. You can check out an
- 1:05:46Speaker 1: interview I did with Robert handa Shot on my on
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- 1:05:53Speaker 1: head to shop with two ties, or check out the
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- 1:06:01Speaker 1: so uh uh check that out and and yeah contact
- 1:06:07Speaker 1: them at hendershot wealth dot com, slash y b s
- 1:06:15Speaker 1: and Michael Williams. Michael Williams is the founder and the
- 1:06:19Speaker 1: owner of uh uh Defenders of Capitalism dot com and
- 1:06:25Speaker 1: check out Defenders of Capitalism capitalism dot com for the
- 1:06:28Speaker 1: great work they do defending the morality of capitalism from
- 1:06:32Speaker 1: really from an objectivist ultimately from objectives perspective. Uh in
- 1:06:37Speaker 1: Leadership program of the Rockies and other places. Uh Defenders
- 1:06:41Speaker 1: of Capitalism at dot com. And finally, the Irand Institute
- 1:06:44Speaker 1: reminds you that next week next week uh the inn
- 1:06:50Speaker 1: rand a ar I Live courses are starting and used
- 1:07:00Speaker 1: to sign up you can get a discount from your
- 1:07:04Speaker 1: one book show and it's twenty six YBS ten twenty
- 1:07:08Speaker 1: six ybs ten. You can find out more information about
- 1:07:10Speaker 1: all the courses on nine ran dot oag slash dot here.
- 1:07:16Speaker 1: If you'd like to attend my public speaking seminar. Public
- 1:07:19Speaker 1: Speaking Seminar, it's eight classes two hours each class. You
- 1:07:25Speaker 1: will everybody in the class will be expected to expected
- 1:07:31Speaker 1: to do actual presentation by zoom which I will critique
- 1:07:36Speaker 1: a short one five ten minutes twice twice. So once
- 1:07:41Speaker 1: get criticism, second time, show me you've improved. And yeah,
- 1:07:50Speaker 1: all of that will be is available. And Nicosa as
- 1:07:56Speaker 1: a course, Ben as a course, and I think on
- 1:07:59Speaker 1: call teaching, so check it out, Iman Oaks, I start here,
- 1:08:03Speaker 1: sign up ybs, sorry, twenty six ybs ten All right.
- 1:08:09Speaker 1: Remind that you can support the show by by asking
- 1:08:15Speaker 1: a question, which is a great way to support the
- 1:08:17Speaker 1: show because then I get to talk about what you
- 1:08:19Speaker 1: want me to talk about. You can also do a sticker,
- 1:08:23Speaker 1: which is that means you don't have to ask a question.
- 1:08:26Speaker 1: Some of you don't want to ask a question. Jimmy,
- 1:08:29Speaker 1: thank you for the sticker. Silvanos, thank you for the sticker.
- 1:08:31Speaker 1: Seap Milk and thank you for the sticker. Rob, thank
- 1:08:36Speaker 1: you for the sticker. And one more Michael Mike Dale Diale,
- 1:08:43Speaker 1: thank you for the sticker. And then we've got Gail
- 1:08:47Speaker 1: and Jimmy and Jason, So thank you guys. I think
- 1:08:51Speaker 1: I got everybody thank you for the stickers. Really appreciate that.
- 1:08:55Speaker 1: So all of you. We've got one hundred and seventy
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- 1:09:00Speaker 1: one hundred and ninety three dollars short of our second
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- 1:09:07Speaker 1: but let's try to make the second hour goal. That
- 1:09:09Speaker 1: would really be terrific if we make our goals every day.
- 1:09:16Speaker 1: Thomas is working on a question. I appreciate that if
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- 1:09:44Speaker 1: please subscribe to the show. Subscribe to the show. And finally,
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- 1:09:53Speaker 1: here live and generally you'd like to support the show
- 1:09:56Speaker 1: on kind of a monthly basis, you can do that
- 1:09:58Speaker 1: on Patreon dot com page dot com. Just go to
- 1:10:01Speaker 1: patreon dot com. You run book show, and yeah, make
- 1:10:04Speaker 1: up monthly contribution. It's gonna be a big push this
- 1:10:08Speaker 1: year to try to drive those numbers up. It would
- 1:10:10Speaker 1: be great to get like ten new contributors on Patreon
- 1:10:13Speaker 1: a month over the next year. That will help a lot.
- 1:10:17Speaker 1: I mean if we could get twenty more, that would
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- 1:10:24Speaker 1: do PayPal. PayPal also works. YouTube memberships also work Patreon.
- 1:10:29Speaker 1: I think is the easiest for everybody, And yeah, do it,
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- 1:10:52Speaker 1: what you can afford, and what value the show actually represents.
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- 1:11:04Speaker 1: and you think it's the right thing to do, not
- 1:11:06Speaker 1: because I think it's the right thing to do. All right,
- 1:11:11Speaker 1: Patreon above twenty five dollars gives you access to all
- 1:11:15Speaker 1: to the audio only of the old membership only shows.
- 1:11:24Speaker 1: But you can also just do a membership here on YouTube.
- 1:11:28Speaker 1: Somebody who was a Johnny John John Wayland. John Wayland
- 1:11:33Speaker 1: actually gifted did five gifts, so some of you just
- 1:11:37Speaker 1: became members thanks to Johnny's contribution. All right, let's start
- 1:11:41Speaker 1: with James, who has a fifty dollars question. Thank you.
- 1:11:44Speaker 1: James really really really appreciate that. He says, well, rhetoric
- 1:11:50Speaker 1: get more vicious and nasty, but life will keep getting
- 1:11:53Speaker 1: better every decade. There's a mismatch between the verbiage of
- 1:11:57Speaker 1: our wealth and our wealth and technological progress than the
- 1:12:02Speaker 1: Enlightenment in daily life is nihilism in Ivy Tower. Yeah,
- 1:12:06Speaker 1: I mean I think that's going to continue, at least
- 1:12:08Speaker 1: for the foreseeable future. At some point progress will slow
- 1:12:14Speaker 1: and maybe even maybe even reverse, but that could take
- 1:12:18Speaker 1: a long time. And you know, the actual verbiage might
- 1:12:22Speaker 1: go up and down, but the philosophical direction I don't
- 1:12:27Speaker 1: see right now. The elements would reverse it and move
- 1:12:30Speaker 1: it in an opposite direction. So yes, it does seem
- 1:12:33Speaker 1: like we have to suffer the nihilism and the Ivy
- 1:12:35Speaker 1: Tower in spite of the fact that our quality of life,
- 1:12:38Speaker 1: stand up living is going up and will probably continue
- 1:12:41Speaker 1: with AI probably continue except thank you except one, two,
- 1:12:47Speaker 1: five fourth, thank you for the sticker as well. I
- 1:12:49Speaker 1: appreciate that a lot like Clark. Does anyone really believe
- 1:12:54Speaker 1: Trump does all he does without Congressional approval? It isn't
- 1:13:01Speaker 1: formal in public, But I doubt Congress is not informed.
- 1:13:05Speaker 1: Oh no, I'm pretty convinced Congress is not informed. Why
- 1:13:08Speaker 1: would he inform? What benefit is there for him? Why
- 1:13:12Speaker 1: does he care? He doesn't? So no, I actually believe
- 1:13:16Speaker 1: Congress is not informed and that he does all I mean,
- 1:13:20Speaker 1: not everything, But he does a lot without asking them,
- 1:13:23Speaker 1: without telling them, without any consultation. All right, Harpa Campbell
- 1:13:29Speaker 1: has a three part question. It looks like to push
- 1:13:32Speaker 1: back on your dismissal of private gun ownership. Where you said,
- 1:13:36Speaker 1: during a time of revolution like the Iran today, people
- 1:13:39Speaker 1: will break into military bases and steal the guns. Isn't
- 1:13:44Speaker 1: it easier to break into those bases if the population
- 1:13:49Speaker 1: is already armed legally? The reason October seventh was successful
- 1:13:55Speaker 1: and the Ranian Revolution may not be Is because both
- 1:13:59Speaker 1: countries don't have a Second Amendment type law. I mean, look,
- 1:14:09Speaker 1: I am not against a civilian being armed, particularly if
- 1:14:13Speaker 1: you live by a border with hostile barbarians on the
- 1:14:17Speaker 1: other side of it. So the fact that the populace
- 1:14:22Speaker 1: in the October seventh the Israelis were not fully armed
- 1:14:26Speaker 1: is again one of those major scandals that these Raeli
- 1:14:34Speaker 1: government should pay for. I e. Natanielle should take responsibility
- 1:14:39Speaker 1: for and payful they forced these localities the lock their
- 1:14:44Speaker 1: guns up in safe rooms, preventing them from actually accessing
- 1:14:49Speaker 1: them ultimately when they most most needed them. Look. I'm
- 1:14:57Speaker 1: not opposed to people have some armed, but look, the
- 1:15:03Speaker 1: reality is that you know your M sixteen or your
- 1:15:12Speaker 1: glock handgun is not going to save you from an
- 1:15:15Speaker 1: authoritarian government. It never has and it never will. I
- 1:15:20Speaker 1: don't know if any case in which a population was
- 1:15:23Speaker 1: saved from an authoritarian government because it had weapons, and ultimately,
- 1:15:32Speaker 1: in order to actually overthrow an authoritarian government, like the
- 1:15:35Speaker 1: American Revolution, they had to acquire systematic weapons and actually
- 1:15:40Speaker 1: engage in systematic military engagement, which required more than the
- 1:15:46Speaker 1: kind of weapon you have in your I don't know
- 1:15:49Speaker 1: guns safe. Most people, almost all people are untrained to
- 1:15:57Speaker 1: use these weapons. The people are going to go up
- 1:16:01Speaker 1: against a fully trained So I just don't know what
- 1:16:07Speaker 1: the scenario is that is going to And look, I'm
- 1:16:11Speaker 1: for a second Amendment for self defense. I just you know,
- 1:16:15Speaker 1: I just don't see what you're gonna do versus an
- 1:16:19Speaker 1: F thirty five. I don't know what you think you're
- 1:16:22Speaker 1: gonna do against an Abrams tank with your guns locked
- 1:16:33Speaker 1: away in the guns safe, your glock. What are you
- 1:16:36Speaker 1: gonna do with that glock? Now, it's true you can
- 1:16:38Speaker 1: use those guns to help you break into an armory
- 1:16:42Speaker 1: and steal bigger and better guns. Fine, Ultimately you have
- 1:16:46Speaker 1: to break into that armory otherwise you have no hope,
- 1:16:51Speaker 1: you know, And when the first step and breaking into
- 1:16:54Speaker 1: the army might actually be I mean to I don't know,
- 1:17:01Speaker 1: jump some police officers and steal their guns. I mean,
- 1:17:05Speaker 1: once you're dedicated to a revolution, I don't think not
- 1:17:11Speaker 1: having a second Amendment, who is what's preventing you from
- 1:17:13Speaker 1: getting guns? And again I'm looking for historical analogies for
- 1:17:18Speaker 1: historical examples of this, like did revolutions require second amendments?
- 1:17:27Speaker 1: I don't know of any revolution that's ever required the
- 1:17:30Speaker 1: population to be armed, legally armed. And here's the other
- 1:17:34Speaker 1: thing about it, which is kind of funny to me.
- 1:17:38Speaker 1: This is the funny part, right, who's going to protect
- 1:17:42Speaker 1: your second Amendment? Well, the courts and the police and
- 1:17:50Speaker 1: the government. But as the government gets more authoritarian, who's
- 1:17:57Speaker 1: going to protect your second amendment? That is slowly and
- 1:18:02Speaker 1: systematically they will take your guns away, and they'll take
- 1:18:07Speaker 1: your guns away before you declare a revolution. And some
- 1:18:13Speaker 1: of you will hide them better and be able to
- 1:18:15Speaker 1: preserve them better. But the whole point of having guns
- 1:18:20Speaker 1: is so when we get to authoritarianism, we will better
- 1:18:23Speaker 1: against them. But when we get to authoritarianism, that's going
- 1:18:26Speaker 1: to be a slow process. It won't you all in
- 1:18:28Speaker 1: one day. And during that process they're going to take
- 1:18:30Speaker 1: many of your guns. But you know, the United States
- 1:18:35Speaker 1: has a large military. Look at groups out there that
- 1:18:40Speaker 1: are militias that are trained. They're going to fight each other.
- 1:18:44Speaker 1: Whose side are you going to be on? I mean,
- 1:18:46Speaker 1: the whole idea of the United States having a revolution
- 1:18:51Speaker 1: is I don't know, I think it's science fiction. We'd
- 1:18:55Speaker 1: probably get a civil war. The people most well trained
- 1:18:59Speaker 1: in using guns are the ones who would. I mean,
- 1:19:03Speaker 1: I don't know what side they'd fight for, And uh,
- 1:19:07Speaker 1: who are we gonna fight for? We us people around here?
- 1:19:12Speaker 1: I don't know. So I'm not against guns. I just
- 1:19:17Speaker 1: don't think that it's gonna save you. I don't think
- 1:19:21Speaker 1: it'll save you. I don't think guns have ever saved anybody,
- 1:19:26Speaker 1: particularly given that we who actually won liberty in America
- 1:19:30Speaker 1: such a tiny minority, we're gonna have to fight everybody,
- 1:19:32Speaker 1: including on neighbors. So I guess my bottom line is,
- 1:19:38Speaker 1: I just don't get the concern about it. A regime
- 1:19:43Speaker 1: there's a thebitarian will not tolerate the Second Amendment. A
- 1:19:46Speaker 1: regime that tolerates the Second Amendment, you don't need the
- 1:19:48Speaker 1: second Amendment because they're not a thealbitarian, like in Iran
- 1:19:54Speaker 1: if you ran at a second Amendment. But of course
- 1:19:56Speaker 1: Iran won't have a second Amendment. Iwan has lived, they've
- 1:19:59Speaker 1: lived under authoritarian rule since nineteen seventy nine. Even if
- 1:20:03Speaker 1: they had a second Amendment before in eighteen seventy nine,
- 1:20:06Speaker 1: that would have been undone. And the gun's confiscated from
- 1:20:12Speaker 1: seventy nine till today. And it's not like in nineteen
- 1:20:15Speaker 1: eighty eighty one or eighty two. The Iranians wanted of
- 1:20:18Speaker 1: a vault, they didn't, so they would have handed over
- 1:20:21Speaker 1: their weapons. Just me. I don't get it, Thomas, thank
- 1:20:33Speaker 1: you twenty dollars. I appreciate the question. What's the statue
- 1:20:38Speaker 1: behind behind you, behind your right arm? Is that a David? Yes,
- 1:20:43Speaker 1: that's a David. It's a nineteenth century David. He's sheathing
- 1:20:50Speaker 1: his sword right, but the sword is broken so you
- 1:20:54Speaker 1: don't see the sword, but it's David. Is a raised
- 1:20:59Speaker 1: leg which you can't see. Is is stepping on the
- 1:21:03Speaker 1: head of Goliath. So he's just kept the last head
- 1:21:07Speaker 1: off with his sword and he's seething it sheathing it.
- 1:21:12Speaker 1: And uh and yeah, it's a beautiful sculpture. I think
- 1:21:17Speaker 1: it's a it's a young David. It's a youthful David.
- 1:21:20Speaker 1: It's beautifully done. It is a It is a nineteenth
- 1:21:25Speaker 1: century casting of a nineteenth century bronze sculpture by a
- 1:21:31Speaker 1: pretty famous French sculptor. You can find these kinds of
- 1:21:34Speaker 1: sculptures for very reasonable prices, I mean not reasonable cheap
- 1:21:38Speaker 1: prices relatives to their value on the web in various sites,
- 1:21:43Speaker 1: and once in a while my wife and I will
- 1:21:45Speaker 1: buy something and and this is this is one of
- 1:21:48Speaker 1: the one of the finds that we have. It's it's
- 1:21:51Speaker 1: really beautiful. You can't. I mean, I kind of feel
- 1:21:55Speaker 1: bad for you guys, because you only kind of almost
- 1:21:57Speaker 1: only see a silhouette of it. But in real life
- 1:22:00Speaker 1: it is truly magnificent. Thank you, Thomas. All Right, Christoph,
- 1:22:10Speaker 1: the ridiculous Uson administration have arrested a brutal dictator who
- 1:22:14Speaker 1: oppresses millions on drug trafficking charges. I will so laugh
- 1:22:19Speaker 1: if he has acquitted. That would be funny, particularly given
- 1:22:22Speaker 1: now that the same use administration is admitting that the cartel,
- 1:22:28Speaker 1: the cartel that they accused him of heading, doesn't really exist.
- 1:22:34Speaker 1: So it's not clear what the charges are going to
- 1:22:36Speaker 1: be when the cartel has disappeared. The original of this
- 1:22:42Speaker 1: David is not in Florence. No, this is not Donatello's David,
- 1:22:47Speaker 1: which is a little similar. This is the nineteenth century.
- 1:22:50Speaker 1: It might be in Paris, I'm not sure, but it's
- 1:22:53Speaker 1: not influence Liam. Other than Germany, no other Western country
- 1:23:02Speaker 1: was completely pulled into oblivion by altruism. Well, Russia. I
- 1:23:09Speaker 1: don't know if you consider Russia a Western country. What
- 1:23:17Speaker 1: about all of Europe during the Dark Ages? So you
- 1:23:23Speaker 1: talk about modern times or secular times, you know, what
- 1:23:29Speaker 1: do you call it? Italy under fascism, Spain under fascism.
- 1:23:35Speaker 1: Not quite to the level of sacrificing other people like
- 1:23:38Speaker 1: the Germans did, but pretty demanding of sacrifices their own people.
- 1:23:44Speaker 1: So not sure that that's accurate, Michael. Is the deregulation
- 1:23:50Speaker 1: Trump is allowing more beneficial than his corporate tax cuts. No,
- 1:23:54Speaker 1: because the corporate tax cuts stick. The deregulation Biden overturned
- 1:24:00Speaker 1: many of them. The next administration will overturn many of them.
- 1:24:05Speaker 1: It's easy to overturn the kind of deregulation Trump is doing,
- 1:24:09Speaker 1: So the long term benefit is smaller. The short term
- 1:24:14Speaker 1: benefit might be larger, but their long term benefit is smaller.
- 1:24:21Speaker 1: Hopper Campbell. I understand why rand changed her name to
- 1:24:24Speaker 1: protect her family in Russia, But where did she come
- 1:24:27Speaker 1: up with the name Iin? Why not just keep her
- 1:24:31Speaker 1: first name, Alisha. I think she liked iin. It has
- 1:24:35Speaker 1: similar letters to Alisha. Iin is a Scandinavian name, and
- 1:24:43Speaker 1: I think it comes from her love of kind of
- 1:24:47Speaker 1: the Viking stories that she read as a child. And
- 1:24:51Speaker 1: I think there was a character there. She liked the
- 1:24:54Speaker 1: name iin from there, so that's where it came from.
- 1:25:00Speaker 1: Alicia would have been too obviously Russian. Uh and Uh,
- 1:25:06Speaker 1: I think iron it's not where it's farm. If it's anywhere,
- 1:25:10Speaker 1: it's Scandinavia pauses Venezuelans need to go and strike and
- 1:25:17Speaker 1: stop producing all but then they'll starve. It's the only
- 1:25:20Speaker 1: thing that actually produce an export and have any money
- 1:25:23Speaker 1: coming into the economy. So it's it's it's not like
- 1:25:28Speaker 1: they would have a very hard time surviving without oil revenue,
- 1:25:31Speaker 1: very hard time. And you know they don't have incomes,
- 1:25:36Speaker 1: they don't have saving I don't see it happening, Michael.
- 1:25:41Speaker 1: Do you get the sense Europeans are proud of their
- 1:25:44Speaker 1: altruism and welfare systems, whereas out Americans go along with
- 1:25:49Speaker 1: it begrudgingly. Yes, partially because the Americans also understand or
- 1:25:54Speaker 1: know that their system is particularly inefficient and in a
- 1:26:00Speaker 1: effective and and and and wasteful and fraudulent. Europeans at
- 1:26:05Speaker 1: least want a good welfare system. I mean good based
- 1:26:08Speaker 1: on the standards of wealthfare system. They're much more efficient, effective,
- 1:26:12Speaker 1: and I think they do have a certain pride in it,
- 1:26:15Speaker 1: false pride, but pride. Nonetheless, they're very good at redistributing
- 1:26:19Speaker 1: other people's money, Michael. Violating our constitutions, separation of powers,
- 1:26:26Speaker 1: and the rule of law to remove a tyrant who
- 1:26:28Speaker 1: violated his own constitution is not a victory to celebrate. No,
- 1:26:32Speaker 1: it's not. It's not. It's and and to see this
- 1:26:36Speaker 1: administration and the thuggishness of this administration and the lack
- 1:26:40Speaker 1: of strategy, and the lack of thinking and the lack
- 1:26:43Speaker 1: of long term perspective is quite stunning. Even though you
- 1:26:48Speaker 1: expect it, it's still stunning every time you look at it, Michael,
- 1:26:53Speaker 1: At some point in America and Americans who believe that
- 1:26:56Speaker 1: principles and not might make right are going to have
- 1:27:01Speaker 1: to take back their government. Yes, but how many Americans
- 1:27:05Speaker 1: are like that, I don't know. And what principles do
- 1:27:09Speaker 1: they have, many of them on the left and have
- 1:27:12Speaker 1: bad principles of their own. But yes, this administration will
- 1:27:16Speaker 1: last forever. It will do damage that will last for
- 1:27:20Speaker 1: a very long time, But they will not last forever. James,
- 1:27:31Speaker 1: how many conflicts are wars? Do you predict what happened
- 1:27:34Speaker 1: this year? Do you have any thought on Thailand versus Cambodia.
- 1:27:39Speaker 1: I don't know. I have no idea how many wars
- 1:27:41Speaker 1: in conflicts will break out, no idea. Yeah, I wouldn't
- 1:27:46Speaker 1: even know how to start thinking about it. You'd have
- 1:27:48Speaker 1: to map out the world and go region by region.
- 1:27:51Speaker 1: I know very little about the conflicts in Africa, where
- 1:27:54Speaker 1: a lot of the conflicts today are happening. Yeah, so
- 1:28:00Speaker 1: I don't know. I don't have many thoughts on Thailand
- 1:28:05Speaker 1: versus Cambodia. It's a border dispute that goes back a
- 1:28:08Speaker 1: long time. Uh, Thailands are significantly stronger economies, significantly stronger military.
- 1:28:16Speaker 1: So I don't know what the Cambodia is are thinking.
- 1:28:19Speaker 1: I don't know who's in the right in this one.
- 1:28:22Speaker 1: It really is. It is really hard to tell. It's sad,
- 1:28:25Speaker 1: it's a it's a it's a beautiful part of the world.
- 1:28:28Speaker 1: It's you know, I have a lot of sympathy for
- 1:28:31Speaker 1: the people's there. They are incredibly friendly and and and
- 1:28:36Speaker 1: uh and and pleasant and you know, Thailand is a
- 1:28:39Speaker 1: land of smiles for a reason. And uh, you know,
- 1:28:44Speaker 1: it's god a stupid war. What the health for? What
- 1:28:48Speaker 1: the health for? It would be nice if if if
- 1:28:52Speaker 1: the places over there became richer and more prosperous, particularly
- 1:28:56Speaker 1: Cambodia that has such a horrible history of of you know,
- 1:29:01Speaker 1: it's the one country in the world it was taken
- 1:29:03Speaker 1: over by galitarians and who managed to kill forty percent
- 1:29:06Speaker 1: of their own population and they still haven't recovered from that.
- 1:29:12Speaker 1: Not javage algorithm part one, okay. Montin Luther King pushed
- 1:29:17Speaker 1: a fairly individualistic view that the core of racism is
- 1:29:21Speaker 1: to judge people as individuals. That the cure for racism,
- 1:29:26Speaker 1: thank you. The cure for racism is to judge people
- 1:29:29Speaker 1: as individuals. But the thing that one out is the
- 1:29:34Speaker 1: idea that racism is wrong because it's not a galitarian
- 1:29:38Speaker 1: and the cure is to sacrifice the privileged until everyone
- 1:29:41Speaker 1: is equal. I think that's right. But I think for
- 1:29:46Speaker 1: a while people really did hold I think most people
- 1:29:52Speaker 1: in America held this idea of treat people as individuals.
- 1:29:59Speaker 1: And something change changed. I don't know. Fifteen twenty years ago,
- 1:30:02Speaker 1: it's how to tell, and it happened at the universities,
- 1:30:06Speaker 1: and it happened with young people. It happened because of education.
- 1:30:10Speaker 1: A new form of racism came out of the left,
- 1:30:16Speaker 1: and it really got going with identity politics and intersectionality
- 1:30:21Speaker 1: and all of that stuff. And as I said when
- 1:30:25Speaker 1: it was really raging in the twenty teens, it will
- 1:30:28Speaker 1: cause racism on the right, you know. So it caused
- 1:30:32Speaker 1: or maybe revived the racism of the right, but really
- 1:30:37Speaker 1: it racism was not an issue in America, at least
- 1:30:41Speaker 1: not an explicit issue in America for a long time
- 1:30:44Speaker 1: after the Civil Rights movement, and it was this internalization
- 1:30:49Speaker 1: of treat people as individuals. Yeah, and people were frustrated
- 1:30:52Speaker 1: with DII programs, affirmative action. Nobody wanted to do anything
- 1:30:56Speaker 1: about it, but there was frustration about it, and then
- 1:30:59Speaker 1: the dombination with that frustration plus the identitarian politics of
- 1:31:03Speaker 1: the left have now caused racism to just explode across
- 1:31:07Speaker 1: the political spectrum. Scott, maybe relevant to the Russian ship
- 1:31:15Speaker 1: seizure URSA Major, which is a Russian heavy lift ship.
- 1:31:19Speaker 1: It's the name of the ship. Oh yeah, this is
- 1:31:22Speaker 1: the ship that was sunk off of Spain in the
- 1:31:25Speaker 1: seven twenty twenty four not clear who sunk it, and
- 1:31:29Speaker 1: supposedly it was carrying nuclear reactor components, not the reactors themselves,
- 1:31:34Speaker 1: components to North Korea. So you know, how to tell.
- 1:31:41Speaker 1: That's a murky, you know, story filled with rumors. How
- 1:31:47Speaker 1: to tell what the truth is? The ship is at
- 1:31:49Speaker 1: the bottom of the sea. But yes, it does look
- 1:31:53Speaker 1: like it was actually sunk, and it does look like
- 1:31:56Speaker 1: it was carrying some kind of nuclears. So this ship
- 1:32:01Speaker 1: now was caught, wasn't sunk. We'll see what actually is
- 1:32:06Speaker 1: on board. And why would it be going from Iran
- 1:32:09Speaker 1: to Venezuela. What would he be carrying. I can't imagine
- 1:32:13Speaker 1: it's nuclear anything. It might be missiles, it might be weapons,
- 1:32:19Speaker 1: it might be drones. I just don't know. I'm gonna
- 1:32:23Speaker 1: be interesting. But yeah, I did read about that. It
- 1:32:25Speaker 1: is probably relevant, but still there's still not enough certainty
- 1:32:31Speaker 1: about what that was all about. Big Fred. Do you
- 1:32:35Speaker 1: think Trump prefers to have a corrupt regime in Venezuela.
- 1:32:39Speaker 1: It seems to me that having a freedom loving government
- 1:32:42Speaker 1: in Venezuela would make it harder for him to justify
- 1:32:44Speaker 1: as manipulative threats. Yeah, I mean, I think he wants
- 1:32:47Speaker 1: somebody who he can quote work with. He wants somebody
- 1:32:53Speaker 1: who he will do his bidding, will say yes Trump
- 1:32:56Speaker 1: to whatever he says, And maybe an authoritarian government is
- 1:33:00Speaker 1: yet to deal with. I mean, ultimately, he would like
- 1:33:02Speaker 1: here's coming to be authoritary, and he's not exactly a
- 1:33:04Speaker 1: lover of freedom. That's not what motivates him and drives him.
- 1:33:08Speaker 1: And he deals with people like Putin and people like
- 1:33:11Speaker 1: She much better than he deals with with, you know,
- 1:33:14Speaker 1: elected officials. So yes, I agree with you. Roland says,
- 1:33:19Speaker 1: as far as the swift Swiss super chatters are concerned,
- 1:33:23Speaker 1: as far as your Swiss super chatters are concerned, your
- 1:33:26Speaker 1: food pyramids should be cheese, cheese, cheese, chocolate, chocolate, chocolate.
- 1:33:33Speaker 1: I could live with that. I could live with that.
- 1:33:36Speaker 1: Particularly the chocolate was really really dark chocolate. Then yeah,
- 1:33:40Speaker 1: cheese and chocolate is an amazing diet. Thank you, Roland Lincoln.
- 1:33:47Speaker 1: Do you think do you think the anti housing policy
- 1:33:52Speaker 1: is primarily an older thing? I noticed young Republicans and
- 1:33:57Speaker 1: Democrats tend to be more pro housing than older voters.
- 1:34:02Speaker 1: I mean, what do you mean by pro anti housing?
- 1:34:04Speaker 1: You mean building housing? I mean yeah, I mean people
- 1:34:08Speaker 1: who own houses don't want new houses to be built
- 1:34:12Speaker 1: because it makes their value of their houses go up.
- 1:34:16Speaker 1: It's young people who want more houses to be built,
- 1:34:18Speaker 1: So young people are pro new housing, pro building of housing.
- 1:34:22Speaker 1: So yes, it's definitely there's a huge generational component to it.
- 1:34:28Speaker 1: John says, happy birthday, not birthday anniversary, but thank you
- 1:34:33Speaker 1: laid Back Pedal Pusher. Yay, eleven years of reason on YBS.
- 1:34:37Speaker 1: Thank you laid Back Pedal Pusher. Yes. Roland says, happy
- 1:34:42Speaker 1: YBS anniversary. Thanks for all the shows you've done, appreciate it.
- 1:34:48Speaker 1: Gary says, congrats on eleven years. Thanks you, Ron, Thank
- 1:34:53Speaker 1: you Gary. Linda started watching Mister Sunshine last night thanks
- 1:34:57Speaker 1: to the recommendation, looking forward to the rest of the season.
- 1:35:00Speaker 1: And yeah, notice that the first episode is very difficult
- 1:35:03Speaker 1: to get through. It's hard to tell who's who. There's
- 1:35:06Speaker 1: a lot of flashbacks, so they're moving between times constantly.
- 1:35:11Speaker 1: It takes probably three episodes to get into it, really
- 1:35:15Speaker 1: to get into it, so don't give up. Also, one
- 1:35:18Speaker 1: more thing to note, the first couple of episodes are
- 1:35:22Speaker 1: the most violent. So if you have an aversion to violence,
- 1:35:27Speaker 1: then again, stick through the first couple of episodes or
- 1:35:31Speaker 1: the first three episodes. It gets less violent afterwards. I mean,
- 1:35:35Speaker 1: it's still violence, but it's just go y or it's
- 1:35:37Speaker 1: less less I don't know. I mean people die throughout
- 1:35:43Speaker 1: the show. But it's just less I don't know, violence,
- 1:35:48Speaker 1: less horrific maybe, And you're in the show you bought in.
- 1:35:52Speaker 1: You kind of get it. You get what the purpose is. Lincoln.
- 1:35:56Speaker 1: I'd love to see a shown Objectivism's Guide to College
- 1:35:59Speaker 1: forcusing on what type of schools are best dealing with
- 1:36:02Speaker 1: leftists on campus, et cetera. Interesting, I'll think about that,
- 1:36:07Speaker 1: Lincoln says. Seeing the real David in March can't wait. Yep,
- 1:36:10Speaker 1: you're in for a treat, Lincoln. Also, also, for those
- 1:36:14Speaker 1: wanting a cheap way to admire art, you can get
- 1:36:17Speaker 1: prints of some of the best paintings for under one
- 1:36:19Speaker 1: hundred dollars. Often, yes, And in my home. In my home,
- 1:36:23Speaker 1: I have a lot of prints on the wall. It's
- 1:36:25Speaker 1: not like only originals that would be ridiculous. I have
- 1:36:29Speaker 1: lots of prints on my wall, and a lot of
- 1:36:32Speaker 1: photographs of sculpture on my wall, a lot of photographs
- 1:36:36Speaker 1: that we've blown up and put up on the wall,
- 1:36:39Speaker 1: which I love. All right, Blaze guitar lessons. Well, the
- 1:36:47Speaker 1: nine hundred billion dollar Medicaid cutthood hospitals. Yeah, hospitals rely
- 1:36:53Speaker 1: on Medicare and Medicaid. They're the biggest buyers of medical services.
- 1:36:58Speaker 1: There'll be significant cuts which they will have to make
- 1:37:01Speaker 1: up somewhere else by raising cost and private insurance, and
- 1:37:05Speaker 1: it leaves people uninsured who are too poor to pay cash.
- 1:37:13Speaker 1: You know, the entire US healthcare delivery system, insurance payment
- 1:37:19Speaker 1: system needs to be completely reorganized. Just cutting this cutting
- 1:37:24Speaker 1: that doesn't help. You need to completely reorganize it. Thank you,
- 1:37:30Speaker 1: Blaze Guitar. All right, guys, thank you, I really appreciate it.
- 1:37:35Speaker 1: I see West came in with fifty dollars. Appreciated Wes.
- 1:37:38Speaker 1: Thanks for all the support over the year, years now,
- 1:37:42Speaker 1: and thank you for today. I will see you guys
- 1:37:45Speaker 1: tomorrow I think, same time, same place, and with further
- 1:37:50Speaker 1: updates on what is going on in the world. Thanks guys.
- 1:37:55Speaker 1: Don't forget to like the show before you leave. Don't
- 1:37:57Speaker 1: forget to subscribe if you haven't subscribed, and don't forget
- 1:37:59Speaker 1: to become a monthly supporter on Patreon. Bye everybody,