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The Favorites - NFL Betting Recap Wild Card Weekend · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:08
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites the podcast presented by BET three
0:13
Speaker 1: six five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network,
0:16
Speaker 1: Live from our Tommy John Holmes Studios. I am Chad
0:19
Speaker 1: Nollman of the Action Network. This is our Sunday Night
0:22
Speaker 1: wild Card episode in which we review the results of
0:26
Speaker 1: our best bets so far and preview the early lines
0:29
Speaker 1: for the divisional round. I'm joined as always by my
0:32
Speaker 1: cost my companion, Mike Capadre, my BFF professional better sim
0:35
Speaker 1: In Hunter Ros.
0:37
Speaker 2: I'm in, Hello, Chad. What a bounce back, brother? How
0:40
Speaker 2: are we doing?
0:41
Speaker 1: We're doing better, We're feeling better. I'm gonna explain to
0:44
Speaker 1: you a little bit of a crisis of confidence that
0:48
Speaker 1: I had, partially brought on by you. Cost me a
0:52
Speaker 1: little bit. But look, we're watching the end of his
0:55
Speaker 1: Eagles game. We had the Eagles three and a half.
0:58
Speaker 1: They're up by nine with about four something left. They
1:01
Speaker 1: got the ball that to twenty. I'm not saying it's over.
1:04
Speaker 1: I'm not saying anything. I'm just stating the facts. We're
1:07
Speaker 1: gonna let people watch this game along as we record
1:10
Speaker 1: the podcast. We want to get to some of those
1:11
Speaker 1: divisional games that we especially already have line four lines
1:15
Speaker 1: forward talking about the Chiefs and the Texans, the Bills
1:17
Speaker 1: and the Ravens. Catch every episode of The Favorites live
1:20
Speaker 1: on YouTube. For those enjoying on YouTube, don't forget to
1:22
Speaker 1: give us a like and subscribe to the Action Network
1:25
Speaker 1: YouTube page. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented
1:29
Speaker 1: by Bet three sixty.
1:30
Speaker 3: Five and now new Bet three six five.
1:32
Speaker 1: Customers get one hundred and fifteen bonus bets when you
1:35
Speaker 1: bet five dollars, sign up using promo code Favorites, deposit
1:38
Speaker 1: ten dollars. Place a bet for five dollars to get
1:41
Speaker 1: one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets. Those bonus
1:43
Speaker 1: bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props.
1:45
Speaker 3: Futures, and more. Whatever the moment, It's never ordinary.
1:48
Speaker 1: A Bet three sixty five must be twenty one or
1:51
Speaker 1: older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina,
1:56
Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia.
1:58
Speaker 3: We're eighteen and older.
1:59
Speaker 1: In Kentucky, gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler or
2:03
Speaker 1: one eight hundred bets off. In Iowa terms, conditioned restrictions
2:07
Speaker 1: apply all right, first game we talked about last week
2:10
Speaker 1: that we liked Chargers minus two and a half at Houston.
2:14
Speaker 1: What a disastrous final three minutes of the first half
2:17
Speaker 1: of the Chargers, from dominating to holding their own to
2:22
Speaker 1: having CJ backed up on the one and nearly getting
2:25
Speaker 1: them for intentional grounding in the end zone. To it's
2:28
Speaker 1: third and nineteen. He fumbles a snap that goes over
2:31
Speaker 1: his head. He picks it up on a bounce, rolls
2:34
Speaker 1: out to the right. All the Chargers have now run
2:36
Speaker 1: towards CJ, leaving a receiver wide open first down. They
2:43
Speaker 1: go on to score. The next thirty minutes is all
2:46
Speaker 1: CJ as Justin Herbert, who we specifically bet the Chargers
2:51
Speaker 1: because we believe Justin Herbert would do a better job,
2:55
Speaker 1: a superior job of holding onto the ball and not
2:58
Speaker 1: having any turnovers in a game where the uh holding
3:04
Speaker 1: the ball was going to be at a premium. CJ
3:08
Speaker 1: was brilliant in the second half. Justin Herbert four touchdown
3:12
Speaker 1: for interceptions, including a pick six.
3:14
Speaker 3: He had three the whole year.
3:18
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think you touched on it. The What de
3:20
Speaker 2: sided the game to me?
3:21
Speaker 4: It was just that simple play of that fumbled snap
3:25
Speaker 4: that went over his head. It took him whatever funk
3:28
Speaker 4: he was in and him not seeing the field. It
3:30
Speaker 4: snapped his confidence back. That's what that play felt like
3:33
Speaker 4: to me. And you're right, he definitely got away with one.
3:36
Speaker 4: That was a sack intentional grounding the play before Oh
3:39
Speaker 4: my god, he was not outside the tackle box, and
3:43
Speaker 4: you know, I think that's a little bit of the
3:45
Speaker 4: home team losing in that spot. The reps easily could
3:48
Speaker 4: have called that, and I'm shocked they didn't. And you're
3:51
Speaker 4: right that that third and sixteen huge play. You know
3:57
Speaker 4: that that kind of decided the game, just because you know,
4:01
Speaker 4: we're not even talking about but that Herbert when it
4:03
Speaker 4: was six nothing, his receivers were dropping balls and he
4:06
Speaker 4: was you know, he kind of lost a little bit
4:08
Speaker 4: of confidence. There was forcing it in there. But at
4:10
Speaker 4: one point they had multiple turners and they led six
4:13
Speaker 4: points to show for it, and he kind of knew
4:15
Speaker 4: that Houston just got a touchdown before half here that
4:18
Speaker 4: could be, you know, a big deal. And not only
4:21
Speaker 4: did they do that, like you said, they got ten points,
4:23
Speaker 4: they were up ten to six head into half, and yeah,
4:26
Speaker 4: this is the game of the haters of Herbert, a
4:31
Speaker 4: guy who skates by and gets zero flack. This is
4:35
Speaker 4: the day that they are happy about because they can
4:37
Speaker 4: just say, look, you.
4:39
Speaker 2: Guys want to crown this guy as a king.
4:40
Speaker 4: I mean, there's guys who have empower rated higher than
4:42
Speaker 4: Joe Burrow, and it's like, I get they're doing it
4:45
Speaker 4: for clicks, but come on, I mean, what are we
4:47
Speaker 4: doing here when you have him rated higher than Joe Burrow?
4:50
Speaker 4: And it's it's a year of you kind of see
4:53
Speaker 4: what you need to do for the Chargers. You need
4:54
Speaker 4: to get him weapons, like you can't roll them out
4:56
Speaker 4: there with guys who are just dropping those passes like
4:58
Speaker 4: they were for Herbert.
4:59
Speaker 2: So so, yeah, brutal bet, brutal loss.
5:02
Speaker 4: And you know, I don't know how you felt, but
5:05
Speaker 4: heading to that game, it was like, Okay, I'm feeling
5:08
Speaker 4: confident because the Cyberron and when they got the turnovers,
5:10
Speaker 4: it made me feel them better. But then once to
5:12
Speaker 4: like we just said, it started going sideways, I was like,
5:14
Speaker 4: oh god, we have totally stepped into one here and
5:17
Speaker 4: this is going to be a brutal loss. And yeah,
5:19
Speaker 4: the worst worst game I've ever seen Herbert play. I
5:22
Speaker 4: don't know about you, but that that to me off
5:23
Speaker 4: the top of my head, that is the worst game
5:24
Speaker 4: he's ever played.
5:25
Speaker 1: How could it not be? The guy had three interceptions
5:29
Speaker 1: the entire year. He's one of three quarterbacks in the
5:33
Speaker 1: history of the NFL with Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers
5:36
Speaker 1: to have four hundred pass attempts and three interceptions are
5:41
Speaker 1: fewer in a season, and he throws four in a game.
5:45
Speaker 1: And I'm with you. I was making notes on this game,
5:49
Speaker 1: and I'm like, they've got multiple turnovers. Off the turnovers,
5:54
Speaker 1: they only had three points to show for it, including
5:58
Speaker 1: as soon as they intercepted CJ. Stroud, Justin Herbert rolls right,
6:04
Speaker 1: throws across his body into double coverage fifty yards downfield
6:10
Speaker 1: and the Texans steal it right back to me. That
6:12
Speaker 1: was the moment where I was like, uh oh, this
6:15
Speaker 1: is this is not good and this game, this game,
6:20
Speaker 1: and how it was so bad to watch like it
6:22
Speaker 1: was so it just wasn't good football. Was the beginning
6:25
Speaker 1: of a tailspin into a mental spiral for me that
6:31
Speaker 1: led to bad decision making that ended up costing me today,
6:35
Speaker 1: which I will tell you about. But it just wasn't pretty.
6:38
Speaker 1: As we got into the next game, which was the
6:42
Speaker 1: Ravens and the Steelers. And look, I think the exact
6:47
Speaker 1: decision for me this week was the Chargers, if I'm
6:51
Speaker 1: not mistaken, And the exec and the Simon says for
6:54
Speaker 1: you was the Pittsburgh Steelers.
6:58
Speaker 3: We liked him at ten. They were terrible. They were
7:02
Speaker 3: everything that we were afraid of.
7:05
Speaker 1: They did not have any Mike Tomlin, Rara, magic, Russell Wilson,
7:11
Speaker 1: could not convert a first down. You know, they could
7:14
Speaker 1: not do anything in the first half. Two first downs,
7:18
Speaker 1: nine minutes time of possession one to five, and third down.
7:23
Speaker 1: Lamar looked unstoppable. Pittsburgh like it looked like it didn't
7:25
Speaker 1: want to stop him.
7:26
Speaker 4: Yeah, and I honestly hated the decision to start the
7:28
Speaker 4: game where they elected to receive. And it's like, you've
7:32
Speaker 4: been a second half team the whole season, why not
7:35
Speaker 4: put yourself position to get the.
7:36
Speaker 2: Ball first in the second half. And obviously didn't matter.
7:38
Speaker 4: I think they forced a three and out anyway on
7:40
Speaker 4: the Ravens to start the second half, but it was
7:42
Speaker 4: still a bizarre situation where you're right, they basically got
7:45
Speaker 4: the ball three and out punted, and you know, Lamar
7:50
Speaker 4: not that he wanted to settle in, but you could
7:52
Speaker 4: just tell he had a lot of energy and he
7:54
Speaker 4: literally was just like, I'm just gonna run this myself
7:56
Speaker 4: to start this game. I'm protecting this ball, I'm gonna
7:59
Speaker 4: throw them off kilt here. And you know that was
8:02
Speaker 4: not a Lamar through the air type of game. That
8:05
Speaker 4: was really a we are the best run blocking and
8:08
Speaker 4: running team of football, and we're going to show it
8:09
Speaker 4: here with me and Derreck Henry. And you know, Lamar
8:12
Speaker 4: is the ultimate weapon, Like we know that the guy
8:14
Speaker 4: might win his third MVP. When he gets to going
8:17
Speaker 4: on the ground, it kind of settles the whole offense.
8:19
Speaker 4: And you kind of saw that even on the final
8:21
Speaker 4: touchdown to Justice Hill. It was like vintage Lamar moving
8:24
Speaker 4: around that backfield even though he knows there's what three
8:27
Speaker 4: four seconds on the clock.
8:29
Speaker 2: Yeah, when he's doing that and it's.
8:30
Speaker 4: Just perfect read, perfect touch throw, and you're right, it's
8:33
Speaker 4: twenty one to nothing.
8:34
Speaker 2: I'm a sicko.
8:35
Speaker 4: I still thought mathematically weren't dead, and unfortunately Pittsburgh did
8:40
Speaker 4: show up in that second half, in the third quarter,
8:42
Speaker 4: and there you know, it's twenty one fourteen, twenty eight fourteen,
8:45
Speaker 4: and you know, Russ is the ball again they're driving
8:48
Speaker 4: and you're thinking, Okay, we can get this back door
8:51
Speaker 4: and you know we can end this day one on one. No,
8:55
Speaker 4: they didn't get there. Russ gave up. I mean Tomlin
8:59
Speaker 4: tw would even talk about that, I'm gonna pump them
9:00
Speaker 4: that fourth and inches. It's just like everything was just
9:03
Speaker 4: cowardice to me about Pittsburgh in that game. They played
9:06
Speaker 4: not to win, they played not to lose, and yeah,
9:09
Speaker 4: that was a great win for Lamar, but I think
9:12
Speaker 4: it showed how important Derek Henry is that team. I
9:14
Speaker 4: think he had one hundred and seventy yards Russian and yeah,
9:16
Speaker 4: he clearly the difference maker in that game. Pittsburgh just
9:19
Speaker 4: had no answer for that. So yeah, brutal, brutal bet
9:21
Speaker 4: brutal end of that day. And I'm with you, Like,
9:23
Speaker 4: going to bed that night, I'm just like, holy shit,
9:25
Speaker 4: could not be seeing the board any worse right now?
9:28
Speaker 2: Two bets to blow at losses.
9:30
Speaker 1: So I was so disgusted at halftime of that game,
9:35
Speaker 1: was about nine thirty, So truly disgusted. Between how much
9:41
Speaker 1: I hated watching that Chargers game and how bad generally
9:44
Speaker 1: bad the football was, like turning into grumpy old man
9:48
Speaker 1: where I'm yelling at myself, why the fuck are these
9:51
Speaker 1: commercials so fucking loud?
9:53
Speaker 2: I agree with that commercials.
9:56
Speaker 1: There's so many commercials and they are so loud, like
9:59
Speaker 1: the all you on the commercials. I thought, didn't they
10:02
Speaker 1: pass a law that was like, the commercials can't beat
10:05
Speaker 1: louder than the show that you're watching.
10:07
Speaker 3: Because they were so loud.
10:09
Speaker 1: I turned it off at halftime only check the score
10:12
Speaker 1: in the action app. I went upstairs and watched The
10:16
Speaker 1: Jackal the day of The Jackal on Peacock with my wife.
10:19
Speaker 1: We'd started watching it got like five episodes in. I'm like,
10:22
Speaker 1: this football is terrible. By watching The Jackal, she's like fantastic,
10:27
Speaker 1: except to kind of cost.
10:28
Speaker 2: Me well before you go on that.
10:29
Speaker 4: I was just like you, Like literally, I went to
10:31
Speaker 4: the diner this morning with a friend to get breakfast
10:33
Speaker 4: and she's in a good mood. I'm like that inside
10:35
Speaker 4: because I was for zero and two and I walk
10:37
Speaker 4: in there's this really happy family laughing, and in the
10:40
Speaker 4: back of line, I'm like.
10:40
Speaker 2: What the fuck are you so happy about?
10:43
Speaker 4: So I was going through the same thing you're going
10:44
Speaker 4: through of just discussed in the world, just because of
10:47
Speaker 4: my own bad bets oh much.
10:49
Speaker 2: I was right there with you this morning.
10:51
Speaker 1: I'm so glad you say that because it makes me
10:52
Speaker 1: feel better about what I did last night, because obviously
10:57
Speaker 1: I do this a lot, but it's not what I
10:59
Speaker 1: do for a living, and I have not had a
11:02
Speaker 1: good year, and I have felt badly about it, and
11:06
Speaker 1: I have lost my confidence. And so to hear you
11:09
Speaker 1: say the same thing that like you're still feeling badly
11:14
Speaker 1: about it, even though I know you quickly get over
11:17
Speaker 1: it and are betting, as did I all day today.
11:20
Speaker 1: So you know, I like Buffalo. We had Buffalo Denver
11:24
Speaker 1: at eight and a half and all.
11:26
Speaker 2: Week Theezers that was also a nice hit.
11:28
Speaker 3: Yeah, I liked Buffalo all week.
11:32
Speaker 1: As the week went on, you became more and more
11:35
Speaker 1: wishy washy, right, and by Thursday your comment was and
11:41
Speaker 1: I won't forget this. I'm going to back this because
11:44
Speaker 1: you're my guy. That felt to me like, eh, I
11:47
Speaker 1: don't really like it, but I want you.
11:50
Speaker 3: To feel good. I know you're feeling bad. I know
11:52
Speaker 3: you like it when you like it.
11:53
Speaker 4: Definitely confident on the teaser. But yeah, you're right about
11:55
Speaker 4: Buffalo the number. I was not confident on it, just.
11:57
Speaker 1: By the time we did convinced me yesterday morning with
12:01
Speaker 1: Raybaon and Kerner and Nick and Evan, uh, you had
12:05
Speaker 1: made Denver plus eight and a half your bet for
12:08
Speaker 1: this game. We went game by game on the show,
12:11
Speaker 1: so that was in my head the whole freaking day.
12:15
Speaker 1: And then we get blown out on the Chargers. We
12:18
Speaker 1: get blown out on the Steelers. As I'm watching us
12:22
Speaker 1: lose the Steelers bet after I get the big red
12:28
Speaker 1: X in the action app, We've got an oho and
12:30
Speaker 1: two day I had been thinking, like should I buy
12:34
Speaker 1: out of the Bills, They're a big favorite, Like, I
12:37
Speaker 1: don't know if I can stomach being oh and three
12:40
Speaker 1: going into Philly against the Packers, where that also makes
12:44
Speaker 1: me nervous. Like by by twelve thirty, after I had
12:49
Speaker 1: streamed three freaking hours of the Jackal, I'm never up
12:53
Speaker 1: this late. We couldn't stop watching it, I bought out
12:57
Speaker 1: my Buffalo Bill's bet and for eight and a half.
13:02
Speaker 5: Yeah, now the.
13:05
Speaker 3: Mow the fields are happening. Now, they're making it happen now.
13:12
Speaker 1: Yeah, Clearly I'm regretful. Clearly this was a crisis of confidence.
13:16
Speaker 1: The reason I share these things, I share these things
13:19
Speaker 1: because I want listeners to understand. I bet sometimes they
13:22
Speaker 1: feel the same way. I'm betting a lot of games
13:25
Speaker 1: every single weekend. I am immersed in this and it
13:29
Speaker 1: still happens, like sometimes you just make bad decisions. And
13:35
Speaker 1: the game played out exactly like I thought it would.
13:40
Speaker 1: And we went and discussed it on Tuesday, with the
13:42
Speaker 1: Bills piling on points as the game went on, it
13:46
Speaker 1: was uncanny how well we describe what would happen.
13:52
Speaker 4: Yeah, and all goes back to what we talked about
13:53
Speaker 4: on Tuesday, which he nailed, is these quarterbacks making their
13:56
Speaker 4: first playoff starts, especially if they're a rookie, it's just
13:59
Speaker 4: up toe spot for them in that spot. And yeah,
14:03
Speaker 4: my doubt came from I thought it was just a
14:05
Speaker 4: lot of points for a Bills defense that we've seen
14:08
Speaker 4: has struggled.
14:09
Speaker 2: And you know, they not only.
14:12
Speaker 4: Did they show up, but they also had a nice
14:15
Speaker 4: little game plan there of you know, just keeping everything
14:18
Speaker 4: in front of them. They really did that. They gave
14:20
Speaker 4: up that one big play and then the rest of
14:22
Speaker 4: the game they were able to keep everything just in front.
14:24
Speaker 2: Especially the safety. So yeah, a huge, huge win for
14:27
Speaker 2: the Bills, And.
14:29
Speaker 4: Yeah, a game that you know we talked about Josh
14:33
Speaker 4: Allen MVP discussion, That to me is the sum of
14:37
Speaker 4: the perfect discussion for him an MVP where it's like
14:40
Speaker 4: in that game, the different places. Even if you can
14:43
Speaker 4: say he didn't have it, he definitely didn't rain that
14:45
Speaker 4: first half. It just wasn't very Josh Allen like. It
14:47
Speaker 4: was sloppy, probably should have been ten ten. They got
14:50
Speaker 4: really lucky that Denver mister field goal has ten seven.
14:53
Speaker 4: And I'm sure evn't tweeted it out, but it's like,
14:56
Speaker 4: Josh Allen second half this year has just been dominant.
14:59
Speaker 4: He's been absolutely money and whatever it is he come,
15:02
Speaker 4: he came out and did the same thing he's done
15:04
Speaker 4: all season, absolutely dominated that second half, made big time thirty.
15:08
Speaker 4: Evan just put in our chat he's fifteen to two
15:10
Speaker 4: second half spread against the spread this season. It's it's
15:13
Speaker 4: truly remarkable. So that to me is the ultimate confidence.
15:16
Speaker 4: If you're someone that is backing him and you know
15:18
Speaker 4: we're gonna talk about his upcoming line this week, you know,
15:22
Speaker 4: he's just been incredible. The second Half's like even when
15:25
Speaker 4: he doesn't have it, he finds it and you know
15:27
Speaker 4: when he.
15:28
Speaker 2: Needs to make the plays with his legs, he does,
15:30
Speaker 2: like the had.
15:30
Speaker 4: A couple of times where it's like, you know, third
15:33
Speaker 4: and short, fourth and short, and he trusts his legs
15:35
Speaker 4: over his arm because he knows how big and strong
15:38
Speaker 4: he is and if he can just headfake the right
15:39
Speaker 4: way and get a guy in the wrong angle and
15:41
Speaker 4: he can fall forward, he'll pick up the first and
15:43
Speaker 4: he kept doing in that game. So yeah, brilliant game
15:46
Speaker 4: by Josh Allen.
15:46
Speaker 2: The Bills defense.
15:47
Speaker 4: And you know, bow Knicks didn't play well. We can
15:50
Speaker 4: all agree on that, and you know that's that's tough.
15:54
Speaker 4: But you're the seventh seed. It's just like we're seeing
15:55
Speaker 4: here with Green Bay, like there's a reason these teams
15:57
Speaker 4: are the seventh seed, right, They're just in.
15:59
Speaker 2: A tough spot. So yeah, Chalk Chalk has been good.
16:02
Speaker 4: It's all home teams right now, Chad home team and
16:04
Speaker 4: Chalk for the playoffs to start.
16:06
Speaker 1: So, by the way, I do want to shout out
16:08
Speaker 1: doctor Nick, who had the Bills Broncos under forty eight
16:17
Speaker 1: in the luck rankings, talked about it un convinced me yesterday.
16:21
Speaker 1: My only solace is that I did make some of
16:25
Speaker 1: my money back betting the under, and of course Josh
16:28
Speaker 1: Allen almost single handedly tried to make the total go
16:32
Speaker 1: over the forty eight in the second half, like I
16:35
Speaker 1: just kept I would for the last forty five minutes
16:38
Speaker 1: of the game. I went to my kids rec league
16:40
Speaker 1: basketball game, and the whole time, I'm just got the
16:43
Speaker 1: phone next to me, and I've got the Action app,
16:46
Speaker 1: and every two seconds I'm getting alert twenty four to
16:50
Speaker 1: seven thirty one, seven twenty eight, seven thirty one, seven
16:53
Speaker 1: thirty eight. So I'm like, are you fucking kidding me?
16:55
Speaker 1: Can you stop fucking scoring? Because if I lose this
16:58
Speaker 1: under after I bought out the fucking bills, when everything
17:01
Speaker 1: happened that I said was gonna happen, I am gonna
17:04
Speaker 1: fucking lose it.
17:04
Speaker 3: Right here in the hall of high school.
17:06
Speaker 6: Gym alert Josh Allen looking for He's a hill, He's
17:15
Speaker 6: a fire.
17:16
Speaker 2: He's a football.
17:17
Speaker 5: Player through and through year.
17:19
Speaker 2: He was runching there he goes, shut.
17:21
Speaker 3: Shine, drugs and excuse me, touchdown.
17:25
Speaker 6: How many quarterbacks have you ever seen hurdle anyone?
17:28
Speaker 2: Goodness, there's no fears, no.
17:30
Speaker 5: Way tons down.
17:43
Speaker 4: He's still going, Oh my god.
17:46
Speaker 2: The demands to do something about this album reaches man.
17:50
Speaker 5: Making louder and louder.
17:54
Speaker 1: Green Bay of Philly. Jordan love was just intercepted. We
17:58
Speaker 1: liked Philly minus three and a half. There's less than
18:00
Speaker 1: two minutes left in the game. The Eagles have the ball.
18:02
Speaker 1: They're up twenty two to ten. At the risk, I'm
18:05
Speaker 1: not saying we won, but I'm just saying there's less
18:09
Speaker 1: than two minutes left. The Eagles have the ball, and
18:12
Speaker 1: they're up by twelve points. You had this game at six,
18:16
Speaker 1: We bettered at three and a half. We better again
18:19
Speaker 1: at four. We better to get at four and a half.
18:21
Speaker 3: Kudos to you.
18:22
Speaker 1: The game closed at five and a half. I don't
18:24
Speaker 1: want to spend too much time on it because I
18:25
Speaker 1: want to leave us time to talk about next week's
18:27
Speaker 1: games that are already lined. And also this one's not
18:30
Speaker 1: over yet, so I don't want to fully jinx it.
18:32
Speaker 1: But kudos because this game closed at about five and
18:35
Speaker 1: a half skyrocketed today, which was surprising to me.
18:39
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm watching around me. It's over. We can talk
18:42
Speaker 2: about it. Yeah, this is the type.
18:44
Speaker 4: Of game that you know, not that we thought that
18:48
Speaker 4: Jordan love Hall laid this big of an egg, but
18:50
Speaker 4: we knew that something was just off of the screen.
18:51
Speaker 4: Made team, especially coming to this game and that you know,
18:54
Speaker 4: they had been at a rhythm and they faced an
18:56
Speaker 4: Eagles team that the biggest question coming in was Jalen
18:58
Speaker 4: Hurts right coming off that didn't rest, And there's no
19:01
Speaker 4: doubt he did look rusty in this game, right, I
19:03
Speaker 4: think the whole offense did at certain points. But it
19:06
Speaker 4: also felt like it was the same old Eagles team
19:08
Speaker 4: this season, Like it's just a team that leans on
19:10
Speaker 4: the defense, has a great running running back and a
19:13
Speaker 4: great quarterback that can run with the ball. So that
19:16
Speaker 4: was the most shocking part to me was how many
19:18
Speaker 4: QB runs Hurts did They completely Like that's why I
19:22
Speaker 4: think it was only one week a really minimum concussion
19:25
Speaker 4: because they didn't change the offense at all.
19:29
Speaker 2: I really thought that would be the biggest difference, and
19:32
Speaker 2: there was no difference. And yeah, this is a.
19:36
Speaker 4: Team that even if they win ugly, it's a win.
19:38
Speaker 4: And it's that's kind of how you want it to
19:40
Speaker 4: be in the playoffs. You want to lean on your
19:41
Speaker 4: defense and have a strong run game. And that's why
19:43
Speaker 4: this team is, you know, viewed as a powerhouse right
19:46
Speaker 4: now head into these playoffs, and you know, this game
19:50
Speaker 4: couldn't have started any better for them, right that that hit,
19:52
Speaker 4: that fumble touchdown pass by Hurts, and then basically you're
19:56
Speaker 4: in a spot now in Green Bay that you're chasing
19:58
Speaker 4: against one of the best aspects of this team, which
20:00
Speaker 4: is their past defense, and they had to keep putting
20:02
Speaker 4: the ball through the air. You know what, Jordan Love
20:04
Speaker 4: have two turnovers, two interceptions in this game. You know,
20:07
Speaker 4: they had a fumble on the kickoff. Josh Shacobs had
20:10
Speaker 4: a fumble, three interceptions by Jordan Love. So yeah, just
20:14
Speaker 4: everything basically went the exact way that he goes wanted to.
20:17
Speaker 4: And this was a good game for Hurts get rushed off,
20:20
Speaker 4: and you expect going forward, you know, we'll see what number.
20:23
Speaker 4: I have them great out this week, but not that
20:26
Speaker 4: I felt low in the six, but I felt like
20:28
Speaker 4: it was crazy. I was the only one that had
20:29
Speaker 4: the six and everyone else was much lower on it.
20:31
Speaker 4: And I think it was just an overreaction by most
20:33
Speaker 4: betters too. The Hurts injury, That's what I think it was,
20:36
Speaker 4: and also the fear of like we talked about going
20:39
Speaker 4: against the floor as a duck.
20:40
Speaker 2: He's been incredible. So yeah, a.
20:42
Speaker 4: Huge, huge game for the Eagles team in the sense
20:45
Speaker 4: that they just need to show something offensively, and I
20:47
Speaker 4: think they did today. I think it hurts, you know,
20:49
Speaker 4: two touchdown passes in a quiet game.
20:51
Speaker 2: You'll take that any time.
20:53
Speaker 1: I was actually really impressed with the game plan and
20:57
Speaker 1: how it progressed over the course of the game and
21:01
Speaker 1: into the second half with Hurtz, because you know, he
21:04
Speaker 1: had like twelve passes in the first half, maybe thirty nine,
21:07
Speaker 1: forty yards whatever it was, and as the second half
21:10
Speaker 1: went on, he was definitely throwing more, definitely looking downfield more.
21:15
Speaker 1: Obviously the players were calling for that, but they must
21:19
Speaker 1: have seen something in the adjustments that made them feel
21:22
Speaker 1: comfortable doing it after halftime, and he played well like
21:26
Speaker 1: he ended up you know, having probably I don't know
21:29
Speaker 1: the final statue because I came up before the game
21:31
Speaker 1: was over, but between twenty and twenty five pass attempts
21:34
Speaker 1: I bet he completed fifteen to seventeen. Ended up having
21:40
Speaker 1: a good enough game when you have Saquon Barkley and
21:43
Speaker 1: that defense, which is just so fucking legit. I mean,
21:47
Speaker 1: that's the reason why we were betting this game to
21:48
Speaker 1: begin with, is just that defense. And I don't think people,
21:51
Speaker 1: especially the betting community, is accounting for the advantage this
21:55
Speaker 1: team has with this defense from back to front, from
21:58
Speaker 1: coverage to tackling, there are they are fucking fierce.
22:03
Speaker 4: Yeah, and the fact that you know they have all
22:05
Speaker 4: Pro and Carter in the middle and then right behind
22:07
Speaker 4: them an all Pro linebacker. It's it's you can see
22:09
Speaker 4: it in that game where that's that's key. And I
22:12
Speaker 4: think I haven't had an amazing posting our chatry here.
22:15
Speaker 4: Through four games, road teams have scored forty three total points.
22:19
Speaker 4: So that that tells you all you need to know
22:20
Speaker 4: right now about how big of a deal home field
22:23
Speaker 4: is in the playoffs and why it does matter. And
22:26
Speaker 4: you know, I've heard some cleutit like discussion about teams
22:28
Speaker 4: they want to change the format, right, they don't want
22:30
Speaker 4: to give the division winners home field.
22:32
Speaker 2: That to me is just so ridiculous, like that they.
22:35
Speaker 3: Want to give the teams with the best records, Yeah,
22:37
Speaker 3: home field.
22:38
Speaker 2: I hate that. It's just keep it as it please.
22:41
Speaker 4: NFL, don't. Don't you keep changing so many things. Just
22:44
Speaker 4: stop getting bored. So yeah, like we just said three
22:47
Speaker 4: and one favorites right now. Uh, you know, it's been
22:50
Speaker 4: super chalky. It's continued to be chalk, and you know
22:53
Speaker 4: a little scary because right now, you know, we love
22:57
Speaker 4: I personally really love the Bucks. So I need to
22:59
Speaker 4: chalk to continue, and we need the home teams to
23:01
Speaker 4: continue because we're on the last two teams.
23:03
Speaker 2: We're both home teams, So yeah, we're open.
23:05
Speaker 4: Chalk goes five and one of home team's sweep's that's
23:08
Speaker 4: where we're looking at right now.
23:10
Speaker 1: Yeah, so we're on the Bucks tonight minus three. Kickoff
23:14
Speaker 1: is in moments. I do want to run through these
23:18
Speaker 1: last couple of games. Like in theory, by the way,
23:20
Speaker 1: the Rams are the home team, but they're playing in Glendale.
23:24
Speaker 3: That line is a two and a half.
23:25
Speaker 1: I think it moved from one and a half to
23:27
Speaker 1: two and a half when it back to it went
23:28
Speaker 1: back to Glendale, Houston. At Kansas City, Kansas City, this
23:32
Speaker 1: line opened at seven and a half, immediately got that
23:35
Speaker 1: up to eight and a half, came down to eight. Obviously,
23:37
Speaker 1: we're going to dig in in great detail in all
23:39
Speaker 1: the games and all the lines on Tuesday, but any
23:45
Speaker 1: first reaction, it's now down to eight. So the initial
23:48
Speaker 1: money came in on Kansas City moved it up, and
23:51
Speaker 1: then there's been a little bit of buyback on the eighth.
23:55
Speaker 4: Yeah, it feels like another really simple game where Houston
23:58
Speaker 4: has been incredible covered first half spread. If that's a
24:00
Speaker 4: side you like, take them first half because I just
24:03
Speaker 4: see the Chiefs doing what the Chiefs do, which is
24:05
Speaker 4: just wearing them out second half, and that's really when
24:08
Speaker 4: they dominate teams. And if you're looking for a reason
24:11
Speaker 4: to take Houston first half, it's like, well, they've been
24:13
Speaker 4: dominating the first half and you expect Mahomes after twenty
24:16
Speaker 4: one days off to come out a little slow, right,
24:18
Speaker 4: That's just the basic thinking there. So and she just
24:21
Speaker 4: who what my mind was gonna have this number act
24:22
Speaker 4: because to me, this does feel high. This feels like
24:25
Speaker 4: a lot of respect for this Chiefs team. But then
24:27
Speaker 4: you have to remind yourself, oh, yeah, this is the
24:29
Speaker 4: Chiefs at home in January against an inferior opponent. Like,
24:33
Speaker 4: if Houston makes same mistakes they made against the Chargers,
24:36
Speaker 4: it isn't going to be six nothing in the first half.
24:38
Speaker 4: They're going to be getting down thirteen or fourteen nothing
24:41
Speaker 4: in that first half. So yeah, I'm with you. That
24:44
Speaker 4: one definitely jumped out. But this next game chat, this
24:46
Speaker 4: is this is definitely the best playoff game coming up
24:49
Speaker 4: in this next round.
24:50
Speaker 1: By the way, the first half line on that game
24:52
Speaker 1: between the Texans and the chief is five and a
24:54
Speaker 1: half Kansas City five and a half, all right, And
24:57
Speaker 1: by the way, it's back up to eight half as
25:00
Speaker 1: far as I can tell. Baltimore at Buffalo lined open
25:06
Speaker 1: at I think one and a half.
25:09
Speaker 2: Moved back some twos.
25:11
Speaker 3: Did you see some twos? Yeah, now it's down to one.
25:16
Speaker 2: That feels right.
25:17
Speaker 3: So the money has come in on Baltimore it should
25:21
Speaker 3: in this game. Uh, you have you power rated this
25:25
Speaker 3: in any way yet?
25:27
Speaker 4: No, But I did take the two when the Ravens
25:29
Speaker 4: first came out with it. It just it felt like
25:30
Speaker 4: that was too much. And now it feels right like
25:34
Speaker 4: this was what the number should be. I think the
25:36
Speaker 4: Bills deserve their respect. They're the home team minus one.
25:40
Speaker 4: That to me is the right number for the side,
25:42
Speaker 4: and I do want to be on the Bills, honestly, Like,
25:44
Speaker 4: I just took the two because I thought there was
25:45
Speaker 4: value there on the Ravens, especially it's Lamar as a
25:48
Speaker 4: dog obviously, But maybe I'm being a sucker here, but
25:52
Speaker 4: my initial gut is just like, man, you're you're getting
25:54
Speaker 4: Josh Allen at home, and I just can't see him
25:58
Speaker 4: not willing his team to win this type of game
26:00
Speaker 4: like he's done it all year in this exact scenario.
26:02
Speaker 4: I just visually, I can't picture him losing this game,
26:05
Speaker 4: especially at home. And when you dive into the matchup,
26:07
Speaker 4: you know, the Ravens do a lot of things they
26:10
Speaker 4: can counter defensively that can slow down Josh Allen. They
26:12
Speaker 4: do have the pieces to do it. And offensively, we've
26:15
Speaker 4: seen the teams. You know, they can't move the ball
26:18
Speaker 4: against this Bill's team, especially offense. Like when they played
26:20
Speaker 4: early in the year, we saw it seemed like a
26:22
Speaker 4: huge mismatch. The Ravens seemed like the much better team
26:24
Speaker 4: was at thirty five to ten win. I'd have to
26:26
Speaker 4: go back and look, but it felt like it was
26:28
Speaker 4: a blowout by that Ravens team against the Bills. Now
26:31
Speaker 4: we can say both these teams are obviously way different
26:33
Speaker 4: now this late in the season. If anything, the Ravens
26:36
Speaker 4: are better defensively than they were at that point. And
26:38
Speaker 4: you know this Bill's offense, I can't see them putting
26:41
Speaker 4: up only ten points at home Like this feels like
26:43
Speaker 4: it's going to be a shootout, back and forth type
26:45
Speaker 4: of game.
26:46
Speaker 2: And yeah, if.
26:48
Speaker 4: It was too Chad, I would I'd be telling you,
26:50
Speaker 4: let's let's early here take this Ravens team. But now
26:53
Speaker 4: that's done to minus one. And again I'm not rushing
26:55
Speaker 4: to bet it because I think you're just like man.
26:56
Speaker 4: I could see this flipping because the pros just made
26:59
Speaker 4: their statement they like the Baltimore side.
27:03
Speaker 2: I think the public will join them.
27:04
Speaker 4: Honestly, like Lamar, he is the guy right now, and
27:08
Speaker 4: this Ravens team feels like the team. So I could
27:11
Speaker 4: easily see this flip at one point. And then that's
27:13
Speaker 4: when me and you move in if we do like
27:14
Speaker 4: the Bills and take them as a dog.
27:16
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's interesting. The Ravens are the more complete.
27:20
Speaker 2: Team, definitely when they have six All pros.
27:23
Speaker 1: They got six All pros. Their defense has really turned
27:27
Speaker 1: the corner. I mean the graphics they were showing yesterday,
27:30
Speaker 1: which we've talked about a lot the past five weeks.
27:34
Speaker 1: This is the number one defense across every metric since
27:37
Speaker 1: about week ten, right, everyone says it. We have Kyle
27:40
Speaker 1: Hamilton and did a deep safety position full time. They
27:44
Speaker 1: moved Marlon Humphrey into the slot. It has completely changed
27:48
Speaker 1: how they communicate, It has completely changed how they cover.
27:51
Speaker 1: It has made them an almost impossible team to throw against.
27:55
Speaker 1: Russell Wilson might be a little bit washed, but he
27:59
Speaker 1: was facing a team that was making it very hard
28:01
Speaker 1: for him to complete any passes. It was hard to
28:04
Speaker 1: complete third and threes for two yards against the Ravens,
28:08
Speaker 1: So that's interesting to me. Obviously, Lamar Jackson and Derrick
28:12
Speaker 1: Henry complement each other so well. One of the reasons
28:16
Speaker 1: why I was convinced to not bet the Bills was
28:23
Speaker 1: because of the conversation around how bad their defense is
28:27
Speaker 1: and what Sean Payton and Bowen Nicks would be able
28:30
Speaker 1: to do against them. So why do I feel better
28:33
Speaker 1: betting on the Bills when the Ravens offense is not
28:38
Speaker 1: led by a ricky quarterback and has a better running
28:41
Speaker 1: game and they'll have Za Flowers back more than likely,
28:45
Speaker 1: So why wouldn't I play the Ravens here? Like what
28:50
Speaker 1: magic does Josh Allen have against a team that is
28:53
Speaker 1: more complete and more well rounded and a defense that
28:57
Speaker 1: the Bills have to play against, an offense that is
29:01
Speaker 1: really incomparable.
29:02
Speaker 4: Right now, if this number, like we just said, if
29:04
Speaker 4: it was two or higher. That's where the value is
29:06
Speaker 4: on that Ravens.
29:07
Speaker 3: Right, But if it gets to if it's at one,
29:10
Speaker 3: if it's a pick.
29:11
Speaker 4: Yeah, the value to me it's on the Bills, just
29:13
Speaker 4: because they should be favored in this spot because they
29:15
Speaker 4: are the home team and it is Lamar in the
29:18
Speaker 4: playoffs on the road. Like I don't know, if you've
29:21
Speaker 4: seen his history, I can't think of.
29:23
Speaker 3: I'm not buying him. I'm not.
29:25
Speaker 4: But this is the same exact thing you did last year,
29:27
Speaker 4: and I did with you last year. I'm not gonna
29:28
Speaker 4: let you talk me into it this year. He beat
29:30
Speaker 4: up on a bad Houston team last year and then
29:32
Speaker 4: got smoked when he played a real team in Kansas City.
29:35
Speaker 4: And now he's going on the road and he's playing
29:36
Speaker 4: a real team in the Bill. So I get it, Chad,
29:38
Speaker 4: I get your hesitation. He beat up on a shitty
29:41
Speaker 4: Pittsburgh team that lost five in a row. Let's just
29:43
Speaker 4: run through a real quick why their defense had this
29:46
Speaker 4: incredible turnaround. They got smoked by the Eagles, right, do
29:48
Speaker 4: you remember that game they lost twenty four to nineteen.
29:51
Speaker 4: It was not a twenty four to nineteen game. Egles
29:53
Speaker 4: dominated that game. They had their bye week, and then
29:55
Speaker 4: they played the Giants Pittsburgh, a Houston team that me
29:58
Speaker 4: and you both don't think that's good, and then cle
30:00
Speaker 4: Even that's when they ended the season on to make
30:02
Speaker 4: this defense sound like a Jugger or not. So there's
30:06
Speaker 4: a reason for me to be skeptical here, and there's
30:07
Speaker 4: a reason I think that the Bill should be favored.
30:09
Speaker 4: That's that's just my whole point. But I get where
30:11
Speaker 4: you're coming from. Like I told you, the pros agree
30:13
Speaker 4: with you. Like the early money here is all Ravens
30:16
Speaker 4: for good reason. It was you had Lamar and a
30:18
Speaker 4: key number at plus two. That's that to me was
30:20
Speaker 4: a smart bet to open up with it. But now
30:22
Speaker 4: that it's moved down to me, that's my whole point.
30:24
Speaker 4: It's like once it's moved below that, it's starting to
30:27
Speaker 4: shift the value to this This Bills team that I
30:30
Speaker 4: totally gary you're coming from, Chad, I do not feel
30:32
Speaker 4: confident in their defense. All my confidence is just Josh
30:35
Speaker 4: Allen in this spot at home, trusting if he has
30:37
Speaker 4: the ball last, he'll win the game. Like we go
30:40
Speaker 4: through with Josh Allen is Krypton. That has been his
30:43
Speaker 4: defense his whole career, Like you go through everything, all
30:45
Speaker 4: those loss in the playoffs never really been about him.
30:47
Speaker 2: You can't see the same about Lamoar.
30:49
Speaker 4: So you're right, am I excited to be that against
30:51
Speaker 4: Lamar and Derek Henry. Fuck though, it's not something I'm
30:54
Speaker 4: looking forward tough. That's why I'm hoping the books give
30:56
Speaker 4: me in you a better number and I can feel
30:58
Speaker 4: more confident at taking this bills as a dog at home.
31:02
Speaker 3: Or what if it turns around?
31:04
Speaker 1: What if you know, this is a fascinating public perception
31:07
Speaker 1: game because the Ravens beat up on the Steelers, but
31:12
Speaker 1: at the same number just about the Bills beat up
31:16
Speaker 1: on the Broncos. And there's plenty of people who would
31:19
Speaker 1: say the Broncos were playing better at the end of
31:21
Speaker 1: the year and had a higher public sentiment rating for
31:25
Speaker 1: you know, for lack of a better term, true than
31:27
Speaker 1: the Steelers did. So there could be money coming in
31:30
Speaker 1: on the Bills from the public by the time we
31:32
Speaker 1: are talking about this again on Tuesday and even on Thursday.
31:36
Speaker 3: And in that case, yeah.
31:37
Speaker 4: If I can get two two and a half, mean
31:39
Speaker 4: you I feel like are an agreement, We'll both be
31:41
Speaker 4: on the Ravens.
31:42
Speaker 1: Oh my god, if this good. If I didn't, I
31:44
Speaker 1: didn't see the two. If I had seen the two,
31:46
Speaker 1: I would have bet the Ravens at two. I'm tempted
31:49
Speaker 1: to bet the Ravens at one, but I will try
31:53
Speaker 1: to keep my powder dry.
31:55
Speaker 2: Uh but yeah, wait till Tuesday. I don't worry.
31:58
Speaker 3: It's gonna be hard not to bet the Ravens. Isn't
32:00
Speaker 3: out here? Let me ask you Ques.
32:04
Speaker 1: Oh well, let me ask Matt Mitchell quickly, because I
32:06
Speaker 1: liked when he came on last week since he is
32:07
Speaker 1: our resident Bill's fan on his entire neighborhood gets ice
32:11
Speaker 1: cream when the Bills win a playoff game. You felt
32:13
Speaker 1: uber confident about today's game in the wildcard round, Matt Mitchell,
32:17
Speaker 1: tell me what you're feeling about the divisional round in
32:21
Speaker 1: Buffalo against the Ravens.
32:23
Speaker 6: Yep, I did feel like Buffalo Bills would give the
32:25
Speaker 6: Broncos an absolute fucking dose, and indeed they forrest fed
32:30
Speaker 6: the Broncos that dose.
32:31
Speaker 2: Today.
32:31
Speaker 3: Had a great time.
32:32
Speaker 6: But like I said, I'm never worried that disaster will
32:35
Speaker 6: find me. So it's looming around. I'm consumed with anxiety
32:39
Speaker 6: about this game. I'll feel like throwing up until the
32:42
Speaker 6: game is probably all the way over, not brimming with confidence.
32:45
Speaker 6: I'd rather play the Chiefs twice than play the Ravens.
32:48
Speaker 2: I'll tell you that.
32:49
Speaker 6: Really, I'd rather play the Chiefs this round and then
32:51
Speaker 6: have to play them again in the ANC Championship game.
32:54
Speaker 2: I hate this Ravens team.
32:56
Speaker 1: So this game is at six thirty pm next Sunday.
33:02
Speaker 1: Interesting timing. Yeah, so it's reaking havoc with our schedule
33:07
Speaker 1: a little bit.
33:08
Speaker 2: More on a night game.
33:10
Speaker 3: Yeah, we don't know.
33:11
Speaker 1: We don't know at this point any of the NFC
33:14
Speaker 1: matchups we could go. I don't really want to go
33:16
Speaker 1: through every combination permutation here. I want to be able
33:19
Speaker 1: to go watch the Bucks game, and I want our
33:22
Speaker 1: viewers to be able to go watch the Bucks game,
33:23
Speaker 1: even though many many more people are listening to this
33:26
Speaker 1: as a podcast.
33:27
Speaker 3: But there's so.
33:28
Speaker 1: Many games that are being played that have yet to
33:32
Speaker 1: be matched up. So I don't want to run through, like,
33:36
Speaker 1: you know, every single combination at this point.
33:39
Speaker 3: Simon, you agree, agree? Okay.
33:42
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