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Best Bets NFL Week 4 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:08
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
0:12
Speaker 1: sixty five, part of The Action Network. I am Chad Milman,
0:15
Speaker 1: Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. Today is our
0:18
Speaker 1: week four Thursday NFL episode. This is the episode where
0:24
Speaker 1: we're gonna get feedback from the wise guys who listen
0:28
Speaker 1: to the show for our sharp calls. We're gonna make
0:30
Speaker 1: our Survivor pick. We're gonna build our money line under
0:34
Speaker 1: Dog round Robin parlay. We're gonna give out our Foxhold bet.
0:38
Speaker 1: We're gonna give out our big Balls bet of the Week.
0:41
Speaker 1: We've already had a lot of conversations pre show about that.
0:44
Speaker 1: We're going to narrow down our picks for the free
0:45
Speaker 1: to play Favorites Podcast one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football
0:48
Speaker 1: Pick Them contest. As our old pal Colin Coward likes
0:52
Speaker 1: to say, there's a sea of money out there.
0:54
Speaker 2: There's a sea of money out there.
0:56
Speaker 1: You want to follow along with our official bets, check
0:58
Speaker 1: them out on the contest website favorite dot Actionnetwork dot
1:03
Speaker 1: com when we lock them in before kickoff on Sunday.
1:07
Speaker 1: If you prefer using the award winning Action app, you
1:10
Speaker 1: can also track all the bets Simon and I lock
1:14
Speaker 1: in by following two accounts, The Faves five and The
1:17
Speaker 1: Favorites Podcast. It's time for the main event. Let's bring
1:23
Speaker 1: in my co host, my companion, Mi cam Padre, my BFF,
1:27
Speaker 1: Professional Better, Simon Hunter, hellosay Man, Simon Simon. I've made
1:35
Speaker 1: about ten bets that I've put into the Action Network app,
1:38
Speaker 1: and on every single one of them, I've gotten some
1:41
Speaker 1: closing line value. Doesn't mean that they're going to win,
1:44
Speaker 1: but it does mean when I look at it, I
1:46
Speaker 1: feel good about the decisions I've made. And honestly, it
1:49
Speaker 1: feels like this is the first week since the season
1:52
Speaker 1: started where I don't have just chaos swirling in my
1:57
Speaker 1: head as I'm thinking about our and our potential lineup.
2:02
Speaker 1: How about you, I'm.
2:04
Speaker 2: Right there with you. I like to lie to myself
2:05
Speaker 2: about having good closing line value as well, but at
2:08
Speaker 2: the end of the day, what did our guys scoot?
2:10
Speaker 2: You always say the right size the winning side, so
2:13
Speaker 2: it don't matter if you've got the best number for
2:14
Speaker 2: in a winner. So yeah, I'm with you. It feels
2:17
Speaker 2: good getting some good numbers here, But yeah, like this
2:22
Speaker 2: this week might be a slaughter for the public. Chat
2:25
Speaker 2: like the way these betting trends are looking, the way
2:27
Speaker 2: the numbers are moving. People love their road favorites this week,
2:31
Speaker 2: and we joke all the time like we make our
2:33
Speaker 2: money off home dogs. This looks like a good week
2:36
Speaker 2: to be backing the home dog Chat. So yeah, excited
2:39
Speaker 2: to dive into this week again.
2:40
Speaker 1: There are some really interesting games and closing line value.
2:43
Speaker 1: I feel like it's the handrail on the roller coaster
2:45
Speaker 1: of betting, Like we're just saying it on it's what's
2:47
Speaker 1: keeping us strapped in until Sunday comes. As a reminder
2:52
Speaker 1: of the Favorites podcast is presented by a Bet three
2:54
Speaker 1: six five. Bet three six five doesn't You Ordinary? They
2:57
Speaker 1: believe that every sport should be epic every touchdown, every game,
3:01
Speaker 1: every point, every play, from the moments that our legendary
3:05
Speaker 1: to the ones that fly under the radar. See for yourself.
3:09
Speaker 1: And you sign up today with Code Action and you'll
3:11
Speaker 1: get three hundred and sixty five dollars in bonus bets
3:14
Speaker 1: when you bet just one dollar. Whatever the moment, whatever
3:18
Speaker 1: the sport, whatever the moment, it's never ordinary. At bet
3:21
Speaker 1: three sixty five must be twenty one or older, must
3:24
Speaker 1: be present in Colorado, Kentucky, Iowa, New Jersey, Ohio, or Virginia.
3:30
Speaker 1: If you or someone you know has a gambling problem
3:33
Speaker 1: and wants help, call one eight hundred gambler in Colorado, Kentucky,
3:37
Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio, and Virginia, or one eight hundred bets
3:41
Speaker 1: off in Iowa. Terms and conditions apply. Welcome to all
3:45
Speaker 1: the new legal betters in the Commonwealth of Kentucky. As
3:51
Speaker 1: of today, it's exciting. Week four kickoff is approaching opportunities
3:56
Speaker 1: all over the board. As we said, let's not Diley Dally,
3:59
Speaker 1: It's time four sharp calls Hello, who's there?
4:06
Speaker 2: I'm talking ring telepone rate somebody saying maybe want to
4:12
Speaker 2: do the man, And I'll just say, I do love
4:16
Speaker 2: closing line value. I mean, Chad love it. We live
4:19
Speaker 2: by it. But it's I try it to, you know.
4:22
Speaker 2: I try to be real with the people here, Like
4:23
Speaker 2: I can't get that much money down Sunday, Monday or Tuesday.
4:26
Speaker 2: The books just don't take that much money. So, you know,
4:31
Speaker 2: a lot of the lot of the way this works
4:32
Speaker 2: is certain sports books. I'm friendly with the people that
4:36
Speaker 2: run it there, and my runners are too. And we
4:38
Speaker 2: know some people and if say, like a good example.
4:41
Speaker 2: This week, everyone in their grandmam is coming on Denver.
4:44
Speaker 2: They're going to reach out to people like me to
4:46
Speaker 2: get some money. On the other side, that's just the
4:48
Speaker 2: way it is. And we will negotiate and argue about numbers.
4:50
Speaker 2: If they have a three, I'll be like, I want
4:52
Speaker 2: to three and a half. Don't call them lets you
4:54
Speaker 2: have a three and a half. So that's what I'm
4:55
Speaker 2: trying to get down is like closeline value. Yeah, I
4:58
Speaker 2: love it early in the week, but most times, if
5:01
Speaker 2: you want to get anything above ten k, they don't
5:03
Speaker 2: really open the books until Wednesday, Thursday, Friday to take
5:06
Speaker 2: those kind of bets. So yeah, that's this week the pros.
5:12
Speaker 2: I mean, there's so much argument. The biggest argument is
5:14
Speaker 2: going to be this Jets Chiefs game, right Chad, And
5:16
Speaker 2: I think every pro in the world is like, give
5:19
Speaker 2: me the ten. I dare you to give me the ten.
5:22
Speaker 2: And we saw the ten touched at a couple of
5:24
Speaker 2: books and it's gone, and you know, that's a game
5:27
Speaker 2: we're going to discuss further on. But it's like, if
5:30
Speaker 2: you listen to this show, if you want to bet
5:32
Speaker 2: like the pros, you want to take the lines that's
5:34
Speaker 2: a good number of a team that's undervalued against a
5:36
Speaker 2: team that's hot, heavily overvalued. In a primetime game, you're
5:40
Speaker 2: going to be taking the Jets with us, So no
5:42
Speaker 2: shock in anyone. That was a big discussion. The more
5:44
Speaker 2: shocking game to me was me and you both loved
5:47
Speaker 2: Houston this week. I've talked to a bunch of approach
5:51
Speaker 2: who really like Pittsburgh in the spot and Pittsburgh's you
5:54
Speaker 2: know whatever, the reasoning is. The biggest one is they
5:56
Speaker 2: have TJ going up against two backups at left and
6:00
Speaker 2: right tackle, and that's a fair argument. Maybe me and
6:03
Speaker 2: Chad won't end up on that because we won't get
6:04
Speaker 2: to three and a half, but at three, I felt
6:07
Speaker 2: like we got a good bet and like you said,
6:08
Speaker 2: closing line value, that's probably not gonna go above three.
6:11
Speaker 2: If anything, I could see it going two and a
6:12
Speaker 2: half two. So that was a big one. In the
6:15
Speaker 2: next game. I think everyone was in linement on even
6:18
Speaker 2: when we did this show, it's that Tennessee. Never Chad, like,
6:22
Speaker 2: we saw a lot of books dip down to two
6:24
Speaker 2: one and a half. Now you've seen some money come
6:26
Speaker 2: on the other side and went back to two, went
6:28
Speaker 2: back up to two and a half, but definitely know
6:31
Speaker 2: some really smart guys coming in on this Tennessee team.
6:34
Speaker 2: They just like the spot against a Joe Burrow that
6:36
Speaker 2: doesn't look the same, so perfect spot to Joe Burrow.
6:39
Speaker 2: Get right. We talk all the time that's one of
6:41
Speaker 2: the worst secondaries in football Tennessee. But the pros like Tennessee,
6:45
Speaker 2: so we definitely feel good. And we got that number
6:48
Speaker 2: two and a half saw a drop down, so not
6:51
Speaker 2: too shocking. That's gonna be one of the more publicly
6:53
Speaker 2: bet games as well. This week. One I'm shocked by,
6:57
Speaker 2: Chad was the Bills. I thought it was gonna be
6:59
Speaker 2: like most people like us loving this Bills team. A
7:03
Speaker 2: lot of guys are scared of this Miami team. Chad,
7:05
Speaker 2: and the guys who haven't been playing Miami have just
7:08
Speaker 2: been on the sideline, Like I know, plenty of guys
7:10
Speaker 2: that didn't go in on Denver. You know, they kept saying,
7:13
Speaker 2: I don't know how good is this Denver defense. I
7:14
Speaker 2: don't if they'll be able to get any stops, And
7:16
Speaker 2: they were right. They gave up seventy points. But yeah,
7:20
Speaker 2: we did a film session yesterday and it just I
7:23
Speaker 2: have so much confidence right now in Josh Allen that
7:26
Speaker 2: if you can still get two and a half, I
7:28
Speaker 2: just don't know how you don't take this number. And
7:30
Speaker 2: I get all the love and all the hype, and
7:32
Speaker 2: I saw Stucky posted that hilarious joke on Twitter teams
7:35
Speaker 2: that scored seventy points or zero to one ats the
7:38
Speaker 2: following week, So yeah, it's stupid, but I'm trying to
7:44
Speaker 2: be like, there's a Pros and get scared by this
7:45
Speaker 2: Miami team. It's like, we got to stick to the numbers,
7:47
Speaker 2: what we believe in, Chad, and that's a game we're
7:49
Speaker 2: going to break down that. I don't know how we
7:51
Speaker 2: won't have this in our contest at minus two and
7:53
Speaker 2: a half. It's just such a nice number and a
7:54
Speaker 2: good spot. So yeah, pretty not shocking that the Pros
8:00
Speaker 2: love all the home dogs, but I was shocked by
8:03
Speaker 2: the love for Pittsburgh, and I just I'm not seeing
8:07
Speaker 2: with Pittsburgh chat. I just can't get behind it. So
8:09
Speaker 2: maybe we won't take Houston and our contest out of
8:11
Speaker 2: respect for these guys, But it definitely was shocking to
8:14
Speaker 2: me these guys like Pittsburgh so much.
8:16
Speaker 1: Yeah, a lot to say about a lot of what
8:19
Speaker 1: you just said. The Houston game is fascinating. You mentioned Stucky,
8:24
Speaker 1: Stucky and Raybon on the Sunday six pack, which you
8:27
Speaker 1: can catch on YouTube Wednesday nights and in the Action
8:31
Speaker 1: Network Pod on Thursdays. They talked about this game a
8:34
Speaker 1: lot and Raybond loved Houston. So that makes me feel
8:39
Speaker 1: a little bit better. I'm glad to hear that we're
8:42
Speaker 1: on the right side with Tennessee. Mimmy Buffalo look yesterday
8:46
Speaker 1: on the film Session, which everyone needs to go watch
8:48
Speaker 1: if you didn't, it's on YouTube. Me and Simon broke
8:51
Speaker 1: down a play by Devon h Chan from the Dolphins
8:55
Speaker 1: reverse where he ran through the Broncos defense and a
8:59
Speaker 1: play by Josh Allen where he rolled out right and
9:02
Speaker 1: hit Stefan Diggs like on a rope in the middle
9:05
Speaker 1: of the field on a play that had completely broken down.
9:09
Speaker 1: And it's one of the reasons we like the Bills
9:12
Speaker 1: at minus two and a half. It's why we bet
9:15
Speaker 1: Josh Allen at ten to one as MVP, because if
9:18
Speaker 1: they win this game, those odds are gonna be cut
9:21
Speaker 1: in half. You know. I think there's a lot of
9:24
Speaker 1: good stuff to talk about. It's a great week for betting.
9:26
Speaker 1: As a reminder, you can catch every episode of The
9:29
Speaker 1: Favorites live on YouTube. For those enjoying on YouTube right now,
9:33
Speaker 1: don't forget to give us a like. Subscribe to the
9:35
Speaker 1: Action Network YouTube page. You can also check us out
9:38
Speaker 1: in the Action Network app. We got to start narrowing
9:42
Speaker 1: down O games. We got to get to our Foxhoul.
9:44
Speaker 1: We got to get to Survivor. We got to get
9:46
Speaker 1: to the big balls bet of the week. Man, can
9:52
Speaker 1: we talk about that Denver Bears game? Because right now
9:55
Speaker 1: that game is at three. We liked the Bears at
9:59
Speaker 1: three and a half. That game is at three at
10:01
Speaker 1: bet three six five. But I'll also tell you right
10:04
Speaker 1: now at the contest, which we're trying to be more
10:07
Speaker 1: cognizant because these lines in the contest have been messing
10:10
Speaker 1: with our head, that game is at three and a half.
10:12
Speaker 1: In the contest, it's a three at bet three six five.
10:17
Speaker 1: So we're talking about two different things here. I don't
10:19
Speaker 1: want to confuse them. I don't like the Bears at
10:23
Speaker 1: plus three. I do like them at three and a half.
10:26
Speaker 1: You can't get them at three and a half in
10:28
Speaker 1: a lot of places. Simon thoughts on the Bears at
10:31
Speaker 1: plus three sought that the thoughts on the Bears at
10:34
Speaker 1: plus three and a half in the contest.
10:37
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't hate it. I'm trying hard not to
10:40
Speaker 2: hate it. Chad. My fear is I just go back
10:43
Speaker 2: and watch it tape, and like, your coaching staff is
10:45
Speaker 2: just terrible. Like I don't know, I have no idea
10:48
Speaker 2: what offense they're running. And it is week four, so
10:53
Speaker 2: it's all bad. But I think we're both just going
10:56
Speaker 2: to trust the number, trust the spot and faded. Every
11:00
Speaker 2: team that offensively v is good, like they're gonna be
11:03
Speaker 2: able to score against this Bears team. Chat. That's the
11:05
Speaker 2: weary here. But their defense is so bad and they're
11:08
Speaker 2: so bad against the run. I mean, how did like,
11:12
Speaker 2: you guys have three really talented running backs including your quarterbacks,
11:15
Speaker 2: so you know, I don't see how the Bears can't
11:19
Speaker 2: stay in this game. It's just the fear here is
11:21
Speaker 2: your guys are so mismatched at I mean, I'm not
11:25
Speaker 2: here to shoot on fields, but Russell Wilson worse seasons
11:29
Speaker 2: better than any season Field has ever had. And this
11:32
Speaker 2: season you can't put the blame on Russell Wilson for
11:34
Speaker 2: Denver struggle. He has played well in this new cheampagne system.
11:39
Speaker 2: So these are all the fears about why I'm trying
11:44
Speaker 2: to get there with the Bears. But I'm telling each
11:47
Speaker 2: od I talked to a lot of pros. They want
11:49
Speaker 2: nothing to do with this team. They got no faith,
11:51
Speaker 2: They've seen nothing from them. Even though it's an amazing
11:54
Speaker 2: number and a great spot to take them, they just
11:57
Speaker 2: they're like, that's just a black hole you're gonna keep
12:00
Speaker 2: We're gonna keep throwing money in there and it might
12:02
Speaker 2: work out this week, but consistently, like this is a
12:05
Speaker 2: team that I can't wait to bet in week twelve thirteen,
12:08
Speaker 2: when everyone's officially off the tracks. But that's why it
12:11
Speaker 2: feels like we have to take it this week where
12:13
Speaker 2: it's like no one wants it, Like I don't even
12:16
Speaker 2: know what when I checked it like our action app
12:18
Speaker 2: and see there's money coming in on the Bears. I
12:20
Speaker 2: would love to talk to these people because I've thrown
12:22
Speaker 2: money on it, but it's like, you know, a couple
12:25
Speaker 2: thousand bucks, Like I can't really go big on this one,
12:27
Speaker 2: even though it's such a great number. So if it's
12:32
Speaker 2: three and a half, it's it's way higher likely that
12:35
Speaker 2: we have this in the contest. Then again, we talked
12:38
Speaker 2: about earlier, which was another three and a half game,
12:40
Speaker 2: was I was like, Okay, maybe I'd be on the Panthers.
12:43
Speaker 2: That's gone. Bryce Sean is gonna be back. I'm totally
12:45
Speaker 2: out on them. If it's Bryceheaan a quarterback against the Vikings.
12:48
Speaker 2: So yeah, if we're talking about one of these ugly
12:50
Speaker 2: home dogs, the Bears are right up there. So I'm
12:53
Speaker 2: right there with you chat three and a half, we
12:55
Speaker 2: probably have to have to put it in the contest.
12:57
Speaker 1: Let me give you some stats, because I think the
13:01
Speaker 1: Broncos have some issues that are not fixable from one
13:04
Speaker 1: week to another. On defense, they've allowed twelve penalties that
13:11
Speaker 1: have led to first downs. That's first overall in the NFL,
13:14
Speaker 1: which means they're just incredibly undisciplined. And like, you don't
13:17
Speaker 1: fix discipline from one week to the other over the
13:22
Speaker 1: course of you know, three practices, right that needs to
13:26
Speaker 1: be ingrained from training camp on. That's the kind of
13:29
Speaker 1: thing you start to fix later in the year if
13:31
Speaker 1: you're lucky enough to fix it. Eleven red zone touchdowns
13:35
Speaker 1: most in the NFL allowed by the Broncos. But here's
13:38
Speaker 1: one thing That's really interesting to me. Evan Abrams told
13:43
Speaker 1: me this the other day. Remember last year, the Bears
13:45
Speaker 1: got better when they allowed Justin Fields to run an RPO, right,
13:50
Speaker 1: and that's when all of a sudden their offense started
13:51
Speaker 1: to open up a little bit. Justin Fields has two
13:56
Speaker 1: RPOs this year, Mac Jones has three. Like if ever,
14:01
Speaker 1: there was going to be a week where I believe
14:03
Speaker 1: the Bears will open up their offense and put Justin
14:05
Speaker 1: Fields in a position to run on the edge, this
14:08
Speaker 1: is the week. That's why I'm buying into the Bears
14:10
Speaker 1: more than anything. But I'm not saying, like, oh my god,
14:14
Speaker 1: this is like a line in the sand for me,
14:17
Speaker 1: a deal breaker. Is that three and a half? I
14:19
Speaker 1: think it's a part of the conversation.
14:21
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's what I'm I agree.
14:23
Speaker 1: Okay, next up Cincinnati, Tennessee. And this is where it
14:28
Speaker 1: gets interesting, right because it's at two at that three
14:35
Speaker 1: sixty five, and I think we loved it at two
14:37
Speaker 1: and a half. I said it was my exec decision.
14:39
Speaker 1: It is a two and a half in the contest,
14:41
Speaker 1: and like, as we think about this, I said this,
14:43
Speaker 1: and we're strategizing about the contest. We want to do better,
14:46
Speaker 1: like we have to start locking lines on Thursday when
14:50
Speaker 1: we if we see a majority of the lines that
14:52
Speaker 1: we like, we're getting a little bit of an edge.
14:54
Speaker 1: So is that two and a half in the contest?
14:56
Speaker 1: But I think we love Tennessee either.
14:58
Speaker 2: Way, this is a no brainer. You gotta bet this.
15:02
Speaker 2: You gotta bet the money line. If you listen to
15:05
Speaker 2: the show, you know the stat no one is better
15:07
Speaker 2: straight up as a dog than Rabel in the NFL history.
15:11
Speaker 2: So ye, yeah, you just gotta sprinkle some on the
15:14
Speaker 2: money line and take the two and a half.
15:16
Speaker 1: I believe Simon said this will be one of our
15:19
Speaker 1: bets on Sunday. He said it on Tuesday. It was
15:23
Speaker 1: my exec decision. I still love it. The wise guys
15:27
Speaker 1: love it. All the tickets coming in on the Bengals,
15:30
Speaker 1: all the money coming in on the Titans. That's everything
15:33
Speaker 1: you need to know. Lock it in, Titans, Matt Mitchell.
15:37
Speaker 1: I want confirmation that we are going to lock this
15:40
Speaker 1: in Tennessee on Sunday. Confirmed confirmed? All right, good. It's
15:48
Speaker 1: not our big balls, it's not our foxhol yet, but
15:55
Speaker 1: it is a big game for us. All right, Let's
15:57
Speaker 1: talk about Miami and Buffalo. Let's not waste time. I mean,
16:02
Speaker 1: I get why people are nervous about it. It was
16:05
Speaker 1: our Simon says, it's still a two and a half
16:08
Speaker 1: across the board, but it's two and a half minus
16:11
Speaker 1: one twenty. So this is this just feels like a
16:19
Speaker 1: smash spot for the Bills. I know there's trends against it,
16:23
Speaker 1: smash spot. No, it does. It does like everyone's freaking
16:29
Speaker 1: out about Miami. Everyone is freaking out about Miami. The
16:33
Speaker 1: Patriots played them well. Sean McDermott has played the Bills
16:39
Speaker 1: really well. I mean has played the Dolphins really well.
16:41
Speaker 1: Two is like his completion percentage against the Bills fifty
16:45
Speaker 1: nine percent. No was QBR fifty nine percent, everyone else
16:49
Speaker 1: the lowest, Like he's above eighty. So Sean McDermott knows
16:55
Speaker 1: what to do when he's playing against TWOA and now
16:57
Speaker 1: he's got three weeks of film and a Patriots game
17:00
Speaker 1: to see how they were stopping him. I like the
17:03
Speaker 1: Bills as a short home favorite. I'm just going to
17:05
Speaker 1: love it.
17:07
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm not going crazy on it though, Like that
17:10
Speaker 2: Tennessee game.
17:11
Speaker 1: I put fifty dollars on it, and to me, you know,
17:16
Speaker 1: the books called to negotiate and I was like, listen,
17:21
Speaker 1: I'm not going any higher than two and a half.
17:24
Speaker 2: I would not do that. This the reason people hate
17:26
Speaker 2: this game is it feels like whoever as the ball
17:28
Speaker 2: lasts is probably gonna win. Right. That's and betters don't
17:31
Speaker 2: want to put themselves in those kind of spots where
17:34
Speaker 2: you know, say what you want about this Bills team
17:38
Speaker 2: and how good they've looked. They got like two of
17:41
Speaker 2: the oldest safeties in football going against Waddle and Tyreek Hill.
17:45
Speaker 2: That's going to be a problem, and you know mcdermot's
17:48
Speaker 2: got to scheme that up and figure out how to
17:50
Speaker 2: keep all of it in front of them. But yeah,
17:53
Speaker 2: it's again I'm trying not to leak confidence on this
17:57
Speaker 2: one because I've already bet it heavily. But it's just
18:01
Speaker 2: every day it gets a little scary as we get
18:03
Speaker 2: closer to kickoff from mea chat where it's just I'm
18:05
Speaker 2: so deep now now I'm about to lose a nice
18:07
Speaker 2: house on this Miami team. If we've gone from a
18:10
Speaker 2: nice car to a nice house. If they covered this week,
18:12
Speaker 2: I'm getting killed here. So like, we have to trust
18:17
Speaker 2: football in the spots, and you know, not only does
18:20
Speaker 2: numbers say This is good. This is just how it is.
18:23
Speaker 1: Man.
18:23
Speaker 2: No teams go undefeated, no teams that you know you
18:27
Speaker 2: can be the all hype team. You can have seventy
18:29
Speaker 2: points one week and then you can be the dog
18:32
Speaker 2: the next week and just be embarrassed what the book
18:34
Speaker 2: is telling you with this number, Say Miami really was
18:38
Speaker 2: that team everyone proceeds them to be, this number would
18:40
Speaker 2: have gone from two and a half to one and
18:41
Speaker 2: a half to be one and a half at a
18:43
Speaker 2: pick right now, Like that's where this number would I went.
18:46
Speaker 2: If the professionals would have said, Miami is this real team?
18:49
Speaker 2: You've seen the professionals of coming on the bills or
18:52
Speaker 2: they're sitting it out, and that's just how they're going
18:53
Speaker 2: to play this one where it's like I don't know
18:56
Speaker 2: any pros coming in on Miami because it's such a
18:58
Speaker 2: bad spot for a team and such a letdown game
19:00
Speaker 2: and then a divisional game. Like what's working for them
19:03
Speaker 2: right now is I just look at the weather report
19:04
Speaker 2: before he came on. It's perfect for what Miami wants. Right,
19:07
Speaker 2: It's gonna be seventy you know, no rain, no nothing,
19:11
Speaker 2: It's gonna be like the perfect day for Miami. So
19:14
Speaker 2: they won't have. You know, what makes the Bill's home
19:16
Speaker 2: field advantage special is that you know either the winds
19:19
Speaker 2: or the storms that get up there in New York.
19:21
Speaker 2: This is an early October game, So like the scheduling
19:23
Speaker 2: guys did the Bills no favor here. But what you
19:27
Speaker 2: just said to me is the biggest thing that when
19:30
Speaker 2: a team like Miami plays the way they did the
19:33
Speaker 2: week before, they're going to be the public team, like
19:37
Speaker 2: everyone's going to love them. So we just we have
19:39
Speaker 2: to take a stand and trust our numbers and take
19:41
Speaker 2: the Bills. Heare, and I hope people listening to us,
19:44
Speaker 2: I get it. You're so skeptical and you just don't
19:45
Speaker 2: want to do it, but you kind of have to, Like,
19:47
Speaker 2: you have to play the numbers here. You have to
19:49
Speaker 2: play this divisional team that you're catching over under a
19:52
Speaker 2: field goal, Like there's still plenty of two and a
19:54
Speaker 2: half's out there, and I don't think they're going to
19:56
Speaker 2: be there for much longer. I do think that's going
19:57
Speaker 2: to close it three by kickoff. So so I'm gonna
20:01
Speaker 2: trust it, Chad, We're going to have this one in
20:02
Speaker 2: the contests minus two and a half. Give me the Bills.
20:06
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think there's a few things that are interesting.
20:08
Speaker 1: And to your point, fifty to fifty on the tickets,
20:13
Speaker 1: which to me says the public is really on Miami,
20:15
Speaker 1: but eighty two percent of the money is on Buffalo,
20:18
Speaker 1: which tells you the professionals are on Buffalo. And too,
20:20
Speaker 1: it speaks to exactly what you just said, like the
20:23
Speaker 1: professionals are either sitting this out or betting on Buffalo.
20:27
Speaker 1: And so I think Buffalo has an equally good offense.
20:34
Speaker 1: Don't forget they just demolished teams back to back that
20:38
Speaker 1: it looked good the week before, right, and it basically
20:43
Speaker 1: did the same thing that the Dolphins have done against
20:45
Speaker 1: two teams that were not very good in putting up
20:48
Speaker 1: seventy on the Broncos and winning handily in Week one,
20:52
Speaker 1: and then you know, having a harder time with the Patriots.
20:55
Speaker 1: But the Bills just have a better defense. And so
20:59
Speaker 1: if we're talking about let's say Miami has a really
21:04
Speaker 1: good offense and the Bills have a really good offense.
21:08
Speaker 1: Let's say the let's say Miami has a spectacular offense
21:11
Speaker 1: and the Bills have a really good offense. The Bills
21:14
Speaker 1: have a top seven defense, They're getting the most pressure
21:18
Speaker 1: in the NFL, and they're their blitz rate is the
21:21
Speaker 1: lowest in the NFL. So they're getting on a four
21:23
Speaker 1: man front and they have the most sacks in the NFL.
21:26
Speaker 1: That's not anything that I know.
21:28
Speaker 2: I don't want to react tough. They've played Zach Wilson,
21:30
Speaker 2: Jimmy Garoppolo, and Sam how.
21:32
Speaker 1: So then you could overreact the same way for the
21:35
Speaker 1: Dolphins offense.
21:38
Speaker 2: Yeah, no, that's what we're not going to do with
21:40
Speaker 2: them getting seventy. But at the same time, like we're
21:44
Speaker 2: gonna learn a lot about the Bills defense here. This
21:46
Speaker 2: is like my big point. Like I just told you
21:47
Speaker 2: they got old ass. They got old ass safeties. Like
21:50
Speaker 2: that's if I'm going to point to a weakness on
21:52
Speaker 2: this team. They have old safeties, which they might be
21:55
Speaker 2: smart as hell. They're gonna be able to read what
21:57
Speaker 2: Miami is going to do, and they really keep Tyreek
22:02
Speaker 2: and Waddell from going downfield. And like that's why I
22:04
Speaker 2: can't wait to see it, because that's that's all this
22:06
Speaker 2: is gonna come down to. Because I'm in total agreemance
22:08
Speaker 2: with you. I think the Bills have a better defense
22:09
Speaker 2: in Miami, like Miami's defense to me, is not that good.
22:13
Speaker 2: Like they have a bunch of guys who have just
22:15
Speaker 2: aged out. I mean Howard, who's supposed to be their
22:18
Speaker 2: best corner. He was supposed to be their number two
22:20
Speaker 2: because I brought in a Ramsey like that was supposed
22:21
Speaker 2: to be their guy. That's a big deal. When now
22:24
Speaker 2: you have Howard trying to cover digs or gave Davis,
22:27
Speaker 2: He's going to lose that battle every time. So again,
22:31
Speaker 2: I'm very confident in this this Bill's team. It just
22:34
Speaker 2: means you will not be shocked if you know, with
22:37
Speaker 2: two minutes ago, they're up three the Bills and two
22:41
Speaker 2: as the ball and he goes on the field score
22:43
Speaker 2: touchdowns somehow. I just wanted people to be ready for
22:45
Speaker 2: that scenario. But don't be mad. You're playing a smart
22:48
Speaker 2: number here and taking this bill side. And Chad just
22:51
Speaker 2: gave out that the book he's looking at, it's eighty
22:53
Speaker 2: percent of the money is right now in the bills.
22:55
Speaker 2: I'm looking at one of the most public books out
22:57
Speaker 2: there and it's about seventy percent of the money is
22:59
Speaker 2: on my So I just want people to understand the
23:01
Speaker 2: public is coming in on this Miami team, So don't
23:05
Speaker 2: be scared off that our ours are showing eighty percent.
23:08
Speaker 2: That is what Chad saying that that's pro money. Where
23:10
Speaker 2: at most public books Right now, all the public money
23:13
Speaker 2: is coming on this Miami team.
23:16
Speaker 1: Oh my god, I can't wait for this game. Here's
23:19
Speaker 1: the question, how much are we going to want to
23:24
Speaker 1: slack Matt Mitchell during the game? And if it's going badly,
23:28
Speaker 1: I will not include him on any of the slacks
23:31
Speaker 1: because I will feel so sad that he has to
23:33
Speaker 1: enjoy this.
23:35
Speaker 2: Yeah. I can't wait to see Matt Sunday Night. Yeah,
23:37
Speaker 2: everyone's got to tune in.
23:39
Speaker 1: It's by the way, everyone has to tune in Sunday
23:41
Speaker 1: night just to deal with Matt Mitchell one way or
23:43
Speaker 1: the other. It is classic Buffalo luck that they've got
23:47
Speaker 1: a great team and they got to get like a
23:49
Speaker 1: juggernaut coming in on a perfect fall day in Buffalo.
23:53
Speaker 1: Commanders flash to eight and a half yesterday. I bet
23:57
Speaker 1: at eight and a half. We talked a lot about
23:59
Speaker 1: it on on Tuesday. It's at eight now. The wise
24:06
Speaker 1: guys has some thoughts on this one.
24:09
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think a lot of them are what I
24:14
Speaker 2: already talked about. Jalen Hurts is like that guy, Like,
24:17
Speaker 2: it's no Fluke the twenty and one straight up in
24:19
Speaker 2: his last twenty one games, and he's dominated at home.
24:23
Speaker 2: And the big argument for them is stop trying to
24:25
Speaker 2: do all this work and figuring out this Eagles team
24:27
Speaker 2: and just bet them first half. And there's like, literally
24:31
Speaker 2: we're overthinking it trying to figure out this Eagles team. Eagles,
24:35
Speaker 2: you know, say what you want about them and their
24:38
Speaker 2: coaching staff. This year, they're already two to one in
24:41
Speaker 2: the first half and over the last two years or
24:43
Speaker 2: seventeen and six against the spread in the first half.
24:46
Speaker 2: So it's a team that clearly they come out of
24:51
Speaker 2: a really strong game plan and it works. So if
24:53
Speaker 2: you're scared off about this big number back in this
24:55
Speaker 2: Eagles team, just go first half. But we have to
24:59
Speaker 2: take eight and a half, don't we chat on Washington.
25:02
Speaker 2: So I'll play that number. But I just don't know
25:04
Speaker 2: if this is gonna be one of our finalists in
25:06
Speaker 2: the contest. Like I love the number, love the love
25:09
Speaker 2: the whole idea behind it. But this Eagles team is
25:13
Speaker 2: my number one Power rated team for a reason. They're
25:16
Speaker 2: just really good across the board. And you know, Sam
25:19
Speaker 2: played well against the Cardinals played well against Denver. Those
25:24
Speaker 2: are two really bad teams with bad defenses, and he
25:26
Speaker 2: looked really bad against a good defense in the Bills.
25:29
Speaker 2: Do we think the Bill's defense is that much better
25:31
Speaker 2: than the Eagles defense? Not really, Like I'd probably take
25:34
Speaker 2: the Eagles defense over the Bills. So even if Sam's
25:37
Speaker 2: not throwing four picks, I think he's gonna throw one
25:40
Speaker 2: or two up, Like he's just gonna get pressure up
25:41
Speaker 2: the middle. They don't have the O line to really
25:44
Speaker 2: stop this. This Eagles d tackle in tier line. So
25:48
Speaker 2: we're taking the eight and a half. But if people
25:50
Speaker 2: really want my strong bet on this game, I'm just
25:52
Speaker 2: gonna keep riding this Eagles first half trend like that.
25:55
Speaker 2: You can say it's fluky last year, but you know
25:58
Speaker 2: them winning eleven straight first halfs, them being seventeen and
26:01
Speaker 2: six last two years in the first half, Like that's real,
26:04
Speaker 2: real data that this team is well prepared and really
26:06
Speaker 2: really run a great game script to start these games.
26:10
Speaker 1: Yeah. I don't know why people would say anything bad
26:12
Speaker 1: about their coaching staff. I think that Siriani is great.
26:18
Speaker 1: I think he gets the team ready. I think he
26:19
Speaker 1: puts together a great plan. I think they're struggling through
26:22
Speaker 1: the first month of the season with new coordinators. Much
26:25
Speaker 1: more offensively than defensively. Jalen Carter is going to win
26:28
Speaker 1: Defensive Rookie of the Year already own Jinks and Jed Yeah,
26:32
Speaker 1: already at plus one ten at bet three six five.
26:37
Speaker 1: But I agree with you on the contest. This is
26:38
Speaker 1: going to be a tricky one right now. For the contest,
26:41
Speaker 1: we have agreed. We love Tennessee, we love the Bills.
26:45
Speaker 1: There's a couple of controversial choices coming up. Las Vegas
26:50
Speaker 1: Raiders at Chargers plus six on Tuesday. I bet it
26:55
Speaker 1: at six. It's now down to five and a half.
26:57
Speaker 1: Wise guys coming in on the Raiders. I still like
27:01
Speaker 1: the charger of the Raiders in this spot. I feel like,
27:07
Speaker 1: if you got two knucklehead coaches and you got a
27:10
Speaker 1: big number, take the underdog on the road in a
27:15
Speaker 1: division game, and the stats, the systems will will back
27:21
Speaker 1: us up.
27:22
Speaker 2: Yeah, you want to make it our foxhole?
27:24
Speaker 1: Okay, Because the other two games I was thinking about,
27:26
Speaker 1: we can talk about it right now, are the next
27:28
Speaker 1: ones on the list, New England and Dallas and Casey
27:31
Speaker 1: at the Jets. To me, those were going to be
27:34
Speaker 1: Foxhole and Big Balls. But I'm fine making the Raiders
27:38
Speaker 1: of Foxhole.
27:40
Speaker 2: Yeah, it just feels like, all right, let's do it.
27:43
Speaker 2: Not that everyone hates this Raiders team, but they're kind
27:47
Speaker 2: of like the Bears of last week, of the guys
27:49
Speaker 2: this week. You know, they're talking a lot to the media.
27:52
Speaker 2: We got Devanta Adams saying stuff, we got Max Crosby
27:55
Speaker 2: saying stuff to the media, Like this feels like a
27:58
Speaker 2: team that's on the teeter of exploding and this they
28:00
Speaker 2: really need this game, like they really need this game
28:03
Speaker 2: to kind of save their season. So you know, whether
28:06
Speaker 2: Jimmy G's playing or not, we didn't care. That's why
28:08
Speaker 2: we grabbed the six. It still doesn't really matter to me.
28:11
Speaker 2: Like I'm just I'm just fading this Chargers defense that
28:14
Speaker 2: I don't think they can stop anybody. And you know
28:17
Speaker 2: who whoever's back there quarterbacking this Raiders team, I think,
28:21
Speaker 2: but it'll move the ball against them. So yeah, for
28:24
Speaker 2: me to make this our fox Will Chat, it just
28:26
Speaker 2: feels like not many people are going to be in
28:28
Speaker 2: there fighting with us. Brother like this, this feels like
28:30
Speaker 2: it's pretty empty, So I love it.
28:32
Speaker 1: All right, Then we're going to the foxhole. You know me,
28:35
Speaker 1: regardless of what's going on, I'm a foxhole guy. I
28:37
Speaker 1: commit to a team, I commit to a city.
28:39
Speaker 2: I'm a foxhole guy.
28:40
Speaker 1: And Evan Abrams just put a stat in the script
28:44
Speaker 1: that made me like it even more. Road Division dogs
28:47
Speaker 1: of three and a half, of three and a half
28:49
Speaker 1: or more the last two years thirty five and sixteen
28:52
Speaker 1: against the spread. Now we're in the foxhole. And you
28:56
Speaker 1: know what we got in the foxhole right now, Simon.
28:59
Speaker 2: And you know you love that trend.
29:04
Speaker 1: I love it. I also love when I can do
29:06
Speaker 1: a good wordplay right right there. Off the top of
29:08
Speaker 1: my head, New England at Dallas was minus seven now
29:13
Speaker 1: at six and a half. I bet it at six
29:16
Speaker 1: and a half. This was the game. When I was
29:17
Speaker 1: doing my research on Monday, I was worried because we
29:21
Speaker 1: had talked about New England Sunday night. I was worried
29:23
Speaker 1: on Tuesday. I was going to have to try to
29:25
Speaker 1: convince you that Dallas was the right side. We both
29:28
Speaker 1: kind of came to that conclusion. Are we still feeling that? No.
29:35
Speaker 2: I just didn't know what to do with it. I
29:36
Speaker 2: was hoping to get some clarity for some guys because
29:38
Speaker 2: I got this power rat to write it where it's at, Like,
29:40
Speaker 2: I think this is a good number by the books,
29:42
Speaker 2: it's a fair number. Like there's a lot of questions
29:45
Speaker 2: about New England, mainly Mac Jones and what this kid
29:47
Speaker 2: is and Dallas. You know, I tried not to overreact
29:52
Speaker 2: to it, but like Detroit tonight, say they do go
29:55
Speaker 2: into Green Bay and win this game, I could I
29:58
Speaker 2: mean I could see them, you know, being right there
30:01
Speaker 2: with Dallas or being the number three team right now,
30:03
Speaker 2: because this is a game Detroit always loses. Tonight, like
30:07
Speaker 2: this is a game they should lose. The public loves him,
30:09
Speaker 2: everyone's coming in on them golf outdoors in this game.
30:12
Speaker 2: They always lose in Lambeau. So yeah, like I'm looking
30:17
Speaker 2: this Dallas team and I don't know if they can
30:20
Speaker 2: fix it in one week. Chat that's the fear, Like
30:22
Speaker 2: they need a lot to fix on that offensive line
30:24
Speaker 2: and they have one week to do it. And now
30:26
Speaker 2: he was coming Belichick and Belichick's defense, Like you thought
30:29
Speaker 2: Arizona's defense played really well against Dak. You're getting like
30:33
Speaker 2: the master and he's got the guys now like this,
30:36
Speaker 2: I can't get a round good. This Christian Gonzales kid
30:38
Speaker 2: is and yeah, he's really good. He's really good. Like again,
30:43
Speaker 2: I don't even care about the last game. I went
30:45
Speaker 2: back and watched him against Tyreek Hill like that. If
30:47
Speaker 2: you want to watch a rookie looking like an all pro,
30:51
Speaker 2: go watch how he played against Tyreek Hill when the
30:54
Speaker 2: Miami played the Patriots. So you know, Bill hasn't had
30:59
Speaker 2: a shutdown corn since Revs. And if you go back
31:03
Speaker 2: and watch all the old film about how he designed
31:05
Speaker 2: that defense with Revs, he would literally bring a safety
31:09
Speaker 2: up and not even have a safety over on Revs's side.
31:12
Speaker 2: It was truly Revs was on one side by him
31:14
Speaker 2: his entire self. And there's a couple of times in
31:17
Speaker 2: that Miami game where he you know, he did this
31:19
Speaker 2: umbrella defense. People kept talking about where it's when he
31:22
Speaker 2: did a low drop safety. So he had a guy
31:25
Speaker 2: in press really up close on Tyree to get him
31:27
Speaker 2: off his route, and then he had a safety really
31:30
Speaker 2: close low down that they weren't really respecting the deep shots.
31:33
Speaker 2: He can do that same exact style here against this
31:35
Speaker 2: Cowboys team that who is their deep threat, Like Ceedee
31:39
Speaker 2: Lamb's not that guy. Gallup has not been that guy
31:41
Speaker 2: since he's come back from the injury I Cooks missed
31:44
Speaker 2: last week. He should be back this week. I just
31:46
Speaker 2: I don't see the wins right now for Dallas on offense,
31:50
Speaker 2: and then flip side New England Chad. My fear is
31:53
Speaker 2: they're gonna be able to run the ball against this
31:54
Speaker 2: Dallas team. I just that's what England wants to do.
31:57
Speaker 2: Like Zeke, I believe he had just as many or
32:00
Speaker 2: maybe had more touches last week than Stevenson. It they're
32:02
Speaker 2: kind of moving into a more two headed monster there
32:05
Speaker 2: for New Englands running back position. So I would love
32:08
Speaker 2: to get there with you on Dallas. I just can't.
32:11
Speaker 2: I can't get there, can't get there at this number.
32:13
Speaker 2: You're probably right, this probably the right time to back them.
32:15
Speaker 2: I just it's such a big number here. I'm just
32:18
Speaker 2: inclined to take the Patriots. It's just such a big
32:20
Speaker 2: number for Dallas team that they're not fully healthy offensively
32:24
Speaker 2: on the offensive line, and the books maybe they haven't
32:27
Speaker 2: accounted for how much Digs was really worth this defense.
32:29
Speaker 2: So we're learning a lot here about this Dallas team
32:32
Speaker 2: and what they're going to be this upcoming season.
32:34
Speaker 1: I'm counting on regression to the meme, and what I
32:36
Speaker 1: mean by that is Dallas was two for five in
32:39
Speaker 1: the red zone against Arizona, and I would expect that
32:44
Speaker 1: is something that can get cleaned up with better play
32:48
Speaker 1: calling and looking for Jake Ferguson more in the red zone.
32:55
Speaker 1: So I think Dallas in this spot. It's when Dak
32:59
Speaker 1: has historically been the guy you can count on, right,
33:03
Speaker 1: you're getting him as a favorite at home. So I
33:06
Speaker 1: like Dak in this spot. I like Dak and Mike
33:09
Speaker 1: McCarthy fixing their red zone issues. So I'm riding with
33:12
Speaker 1: the Cowboys minus six and a half. If it's seven,
33:14
Speaker 1: I'm not doing it. But it's a six and a half,
33:15
Speaker 1: I feel like I'm getting half a point.
33:18
Speaker 2: Just a Scoch quick step before we move from my guy,
33:20
Speaker 2: Evan Dallas allowing five point three yards per rush third
33:25
Speaker 2: worse than NFL.
33:26
Speaker 1: Right now, all right, next game, I'm gonna say it
33:29
Speaker 1: right now, big balls better the week. We gotta take
33:37
Speaker 1: the Jets Kansas City at the New York Jets. It's
33:40
Speaker 1: at nine and a half. I believe it will hit
33:43
Speaker 1: ten on Sunday. You might feel differently, but it hit
33:46
Speaker 1: ten yesterday. For a second, I bet it, dude. This
33:49
Speaker 1: is we missed this last week with the Cardinals, right
33:52
Speaker 1: where nobody was backing the Cardinals as a huge home dog,
33:56
Speaker 1: and we didn't even discuss it. This week we're discussing
34:00
Speaker 1: right now. Sixteen percent of the tickets are on the Jets.
34:02
Speaker 1: Only one team since twenty fourteen has closed with fewer
34:06
Speaker 1: than twenty percent of the tickets at home in a
34:09
Speaker 1: night game Pats plus six and a half versus the
34:13
Speaker 1: Bucks in twenty twenty one. That was Brady's return to
34:18
Speaker 1: New England.
34:19
Speaker 2: I'm telling you people, the group that's coming in heavy
34:22
Speaker 2: on this Jets team, highly respected, smart guys, back to
34:26
Speaker 2: smart money here. Hopefully we get the ten again. Like
34:28
Speaker 2: me and you hit the ten. I've grabbed some nine
34:30
Speaker 2: and a halfs just in case it does drop even
34:32
Speaker 2: more than a few books. But I'm with you. I
34:35
Speaker 2: do think I'll get back to ten. I just the
34:37
Speaker 2: guys I know and respect, they're going to keep hitting
34:40
Speaker 2: the same time with touches ten. So I don't know
34:43
Speaker 2: how they do it, Chad, I wish I could come
34:45
Speaker 2: here and spin some people some bs. But if you're
34:48
Speaker 2: just looking on paper, how they do this? How? Somehow
34:54
Speaker 2: this Jets team can step up in the spot. If
34:57
Speaker 2: if you go back and watch that second half, he's
35:00
Speaker 2: he kind of found something there against that Patriots team
35:02
Speaker 2: after the first half, Like again, it wasn't wasn't incredible.
35:05
Speaker 2: They didn't come back and win. He's still he's still
35:08
Speaker 2: Zack Wilson, but he seemed like he was making throws
35:12
Speaker 2: that he was more comfortable with going downfield, which is
35:14
Speaker 2: all I'm looking for. Like this kid every time checks
35:18
Speaker 2: it down, Like that's why I hate betting on Zach Wilson.
35:20
Speaker 2: He just checks it down every time. But in that
35:23
Speaker 2: second half against the Patriots, he was pushing the ball
35:24
Speaker 2: downfield and looking for his guys so that in the defense.
35:29
Speaker 1: It was fourth and ten and they had no choice.
35:31
Speaker 1: He checked it down.
35:32
Speaker 2: He checked it. I can't take it. It's brutal, but
35:36
Speaker 2: we're really back in here as his defense and we
35:40
Speaker 2: gave the stat which you know, it didn't work out
35:44
Speaker 2: against that Dallas team at the time, they were two
35:46
Speaker 2: and oh straight up in two and oh against the
35:47
Speaker 2: spread when Zach Wilson was there, seven or point more underdog. Okay,
35:51
Speaker 2: it didn't work against Dallas. That was a letdown spot.
35:54
Speaker 2: After there's such an emotional win against the Bills and
35:56
Speaker 2: losing Rogers, this feels like the same as a Raiders
36:01
Speaker 2: spot of like this is like their team against everybody,
36:04
Speaker 2: like they got you know, we're not the only ones whispering.
36:09
Speaker 2: You got to bring in Kirk Cousins like that. They're
36:11
Speaker 2: hearing in the locker room. Everyone's talking about it, and
36:13
Speaker 2: the media is asking these guys about it. They all
36:15
Speaker 2: know and this just feels like a stand for them.
36:18
Speaker 2: And on a primetime game where like we just said,
36:20
Speaker 2: everyone everyone you talk to is going to have this
36:23
Speaker 2: tease to have the Chief's money line. And you know
36:27
Speaker 2: that Patriots game against the Bucks, they opened that line
36:32
Speaker 2: two and a half, they went to three and a half,
36:34
Speaker 2: went to four and a half, went to five and
36:35
Speaker 2: a half, then closed at six six and a half
36:38
Speaker 2: and the Patriots missed a field goal at the very
36:40
Speaker 2: end of the game to lose that game. So the
36:42
Speaker 2: last time this exact scenario happened where everyone in the
36:45
Speaker 2: world was saying, this is free money, Come and bet
36:48
Speaker 2: the Chiefs winning line, Come and bet the Chiefs on
36:49
Speaker 2: the spread, Come put them in their teasers. It came
36:52
Speaker 2: down to a field goal that decided all those things.
36:54
Speaker 2: So we have to take this number. This is I
36:57
Speaker 2: can't be gonna say this. This is probably end up
36:59
Speaker 2: in our line around Robin and that would be so hilarious.
37:03
Speaker 2: At the Jets start of the year two and two
37:05
Speaker 2: was Zach Wilson their quarterback with a winner for the
37:07
Speaker 2: Chiefs and the Bills. Football is so stupid, simon.
37:12
Speaker 1: You'd like to speak in terms of nice houses and
37:16
Speaker 1: nice cars. I speak in terms of the what I
37:22
Speaker 1: call the K trifecta. I will be putting the four
37:27
Speaker 1: to oh one K, the K one income, the five
37:31
Speaker 1: twenty nine income, you name it, all of it going
37:36
Speaker 1: on the Jets. I'm getting calls from bookmakers right now
37:40
Speaker 1: begging me to stop hitting the Jets. The question is,
37:45
Speaker 1: does this go into our contest at nine and a half?
37:48
Speaker 2: Yeah? Okay, yeah, and well you got it. You change.
37:51
Speaker 2: You got to get a high yield savings account Okay,
37:53
Speaker 2: five percent right now thanks to the US government. So
37:55
Speaker 2: get on that, my guy.
37:57
Speaker 1: No, I'm dude, believe me, I'm a totala. What you
38:01
Speaker 1: got to look out for is the six percent CD
38:04
Speaker 1: that is being offered certain banks right now because there
38:07
Speaker 1: are tax implications.
38:08
Speaker 2: That's true.
38:08
Speaker 1: To get into that. We can get into that later,
38:12
Speaker 1: all right, So right now, we really like Tennessee. We
38:15
Speaker 1: really like the Bills, we really like the Jets. We've
38:18
Speaker 1: got a couple of spots open in the contest. Pitt
38:21
Speaker 1: at Houston. We talked about that a little bit. It
38:24
Speaker 1: was at three and a half. Now it's to three.
38:26
Speaker 1: I know what you're saying about t J. Watt against
38:28
Speaker 1: the the.
38:30
Speaker 2: Backup that cast.
38:32
Speaker 1: But I do think that this Steelers run game, rushing
38:38
Speaker 1: defense is terrible. I think their rushing offense is terrible.
38:43
Speaker 1: I think that Mike Tomlin on the road as a
38:47
Speaker 1: favorite is not the same as Mike Tomlin at home
38:50
Speaker 1: as an underdog. So in every respect, I still like
38:54
Speaker 1: the Texans here.
38:56
Speaker 2: We'll just stay away from it then because I don't
38:57
Speaker 2: want to go against the boys, and I totally get
39:01
Speaker 2: where they're coming from. That CJ is due to lay
39:03
Speaker 2: a total fucking egg like this, That's just how it
39:06
Speaker 2: is with these rookies, and he is, you know, making
39:10
Speaker 2: great reads and having great plays. He has not seen
39:15
Speaker 2: at TJ. Watt. Like, we can say all we want
39:18
Speaker 2: about the Jaguars team. You know, that was more of
39:21
Speaker 2: the Jaguars, right, just laying an egg, and I don't
39:24
Speaker 2: know if Pittsburgh is gonna be in the same spot.
39:26
Speaker 2: Like I trust the coaching as more in Pittsburgh. But yeah,
39:30
Speaker 2: we'll just we'll stay away from that one because we
39:32
Speaker 2: do we have a game I do want to talk
39:33
Speaker 2: about that they've moved to a favorite. Maybe I can
39:36
Speaker 2: convince you to move to.
39:38
Speaker 1: All right, well, but before we get to that, let's
39:41
Speaker 1: do let's do one more. Then we'll get to that.
39:43
Speaker 1: Baltimore plus three at Cleveland. We were waiting to get
39:47
Speaker 1: to the three. It got there. I thould like if
39:51
Speaker 1: you I like Baltimore here, I bet Baltimore plus three.
39:56
Speaker 1: But I'm playing the number, and I'm playing sort of
39:58
Speaker 1: the history here that you want to play the underdog
40:03
Speaker 1: at this number in a divisional game. I also could
40:06
Speaker 1: understand if we want to back off it, like and Stuck.
40:08
Speaker 1: You talked about this, You've talked about this. This Brown's
40:12
Speaker 1: defense is historically great. So I have no concerns if
40:16
Speaker 1: we want to walk away from this.
40:18
Speaker 2: Yeah, Like, I have no idea what to do. This
40:20
Speaker 2: is their first real test, this Cleveland defense. But on
40:23
Speaker 2: the flip side, like Lamar, this is terrifying for him,
40:27
Speaker 2: like he needs he needs his O line back. So
40:31
Speaker 2: this is one of these where if you, if you
40:32
Speaker 2: do want to take the Ravens taker like me and
40:33
Speaker 2: Chatter doing, We're putting a little in the three and
40:36
Speaker 2: maybe once all these guys get cleared for Sunday and
40:38
Speaker 2: I know who's me back and playing for, you know,
40:41
Speaker 2: this banged up Ravens team, maybe I'll put some more
40:44
Speaker 2: money on it. But I just I have a hard
40:46
Speaker 2: time getting there right now because everything I've seen from
40:49
Speaker 2: this Cleveland defense, like they're they're incredible, and they match
40:52
Speaker 2: up so well against what this Ravens team wants to
40:55
Speaker 2: do offensively. So yeah, like there's so many great games
40:59
Speaker 2: this week, and this is another one where it's like,
41:01
Speaker 2: not this decides the brown season, but if they win this,
41:05
Speaker 2: Chad me and you are feeling like geniuses taking them
41:08
Speaker 2: to win this division.
41:09
Speaker 1: If they win this, all of a sudden, I get
41:11
Speaker 1: to keep that ticket.
41:13
Speaker 2: Yeah. But seriously, though, it's like this is just this
41:18
Speaker 2: is one of those games where we wouldn't be shocked
41:21
Speaker 2: if what happened in Pittsburgh happens here. Like the Browns Brown,
41:24
Speaker 2: It's what the Brown's do, and that's what sucks where
41:26
Speaker 2: it's like me, Chad, we love the Browns. We have
41:29
Speaker 2: to take the three with the Ravens because of the
41:32
Speaker 2: history and because of Lamar as a dog. Historically he
41:35
Speaker 2: is very profitable taking as a dog in this spot.
41:38
Speaker 2: So we'll hold our nose and take the three. Chad.
41:40
Speaker 2: But another game, I just I just can't see us
41:42
Speaker 2: having the contest Like it's just it's just hard for
41:44
Speaker 2: me to get there.
41:45
Speaker 1: All right, So the game right now, we're talking about
41:48
Speaker 1: Tennessee Buffalo and the Jets that we really like for
41:52
Speaker 1: the contest. It's much smaller grouping than we normally have.
41:56
Speaker 1: I could see us wanting to get the Raiders in there.
41:59
Speaker 1: What is the game that you want to convince me of?
42:03
Speaker 2: And I just want to say real quick, Evan sent
42:04
Speaker 2: us to us. Lamar eleven and two is ats as
42:07
Speaker 2: a dog. So it's just play the numbers. People like
42:10
Speaker 2: me and Chad. We thought maybe we'll go against them
42:12
Speaker 2: with Cincy in week two and Lamar made us eat
42:15
Speaker 2: our lunch. So how can I get you on the Rams? Chad?
42:19
Speaker 1: Dude, dude, I love the Rams. I bet the last night.
42:23
Speaker 1: Here's the thing, here's the thing, uh in like What
42:28
Speaker 1: worries me is that that trend of teams that go
42:31
Speaker 1: from underdogs two favorites and so yeah, yeah, you know
42:37
Speaker 1: right now, the like that's why I bet that, because
42:39
Speaker 1: there's there's some discrepancies here, Like the Rams are plus one.
42:44
Speaker 1: I got them at plus one and a half last.
42:46
Speaker 2: Night, one and a half in the contest, though, I'm
42:48
Speaker 2: looking right now because apparently one and a half in
42:50
Speaker 2: the contest is our sweet spot with the Saints last week.
42:54
Speaker 1: Yeah, so if we could get the Rams at one
42:56
Speaker 1: and a half in the contest, lock it in, then
42:58
Speaker 1: I would say, let's start. Yeah, are lines, but I
43:02
Speaker 1: love the Rams, you know, stuck. Last night I was
43:04
Speaker 1: listening to the Sunday six Pack. Raybond loves the Rams
43:08
Speaker 1: at plus one and a half, and he had great
43:10
Speaker 1: reasons right now in the contest, the Rams half minus
43:15
Speaker 1: a half.
43:17
Speaker 2: Mmm, Now, yeah, that's tough, so at least we don't
43:23
Speaker 2: have to rush to it then, But yeah, I would
43:25
Speaker 2: have loved them in one and a half. It's just
43:27
Speaker 2: it's a great spot for Rams team that there were
43:30
Speaker 2: so many little bs things that happened that Bengals game,
43:33
Speaker 2: like they had a touchdown taken away and they had
43:35
Speaker 2: settle for a field goal from I think the three
43:37
Speaker 2: or the four, and there's just a ut of things run.
43:40
Speaker 1: Simon's biggest luck rankings differential this week are the Rams
43:45
Speaker 1: and the Colts, with the Rams being the side do
43:47
Speaker 1: you want to bet?
43:49
Speaker 2: And that makes sense because I felt like the Colts
43:52
Speaker 2: were the luckiest team in all football last week against
43:54
Speaker 2: that Ravens team, Like every little thing that went right
43:56
Speaker 2: went right their way. So yeah, yeah, like I said
44:00
Speaker 2: on Tuesday, I love the Rams. I love them again here.
44:02
Speaker 2: It's just they're going to just keep being undervalued by
44:05
Speaker 2: the books, like they just the public does not respect
44:07
Speaker 2: this team. They just don't respect Stafford. It's just the
44:12
Speaker 2: way it is for this Rams team. So ye, if
44:15
Speaker 2: they can win this game and then get Cooper Cup
44:17
Speaker 2: next week and be two and two, that they're a
44:21
Speaker 2: sneaky team, like we talked about all summer, they're a
44:23
Speaker 2: sneaky team to win this division. Like the forty nine
44:25
Speaker 2: ers are great. We saw the forty nine Ers did
44:27
Speaker 2: struggle with this Rams team until that fourth quarter, right,
44:30
Speaker 2: I think it was a twenty three to twenty game
44:33
Speaker 2: head into the fourth and then they got the touchdown
44:36
Speaker 2: and whatever happened. We got that late field goal give
44:39
Speaker 2: us to cover with the Rams. But the Rams just
44:41
Speaker 2: aren't as bad as the public received. So I love
44:44
Speaker 2: this spot for a letdown spot for the Colts, that
44:47
Speaker 2: bounce back spot for a Rams team that I just
44:49
Speaker 2: think they got unlucky against that Bengals team. So it
44:52
Speaker 2: feels good to know the luck rankings are on this
44:53
Speaker 2: one because we talk all the time. People can hate
44:56
Speaker 2: on the luck rankings. It works, it's profitable. We've been
44:59
Speaker 2: bending now for over two years and it's still turning
45:02
Speaker 2: our profit. The books haven't caught up to it. So yeah,
45:05
Speaker 2: we looked like idiots last week with the Broncos. That
45:08
Speaker 2: was a one off, Like, don't don't overreact to that.
45:10
Speaker 2: This is the biggest luck discrepancy. I already love the Rams.
45:14
Speaker 2: How do we not take this one?
45:15
Speaker 1: There are places right now where you can still get
45:17
Speaker 1: the Rams as a short dog. The minus a half
45:22
Speaker 1: doesn't really bother me, so I'd be comfortable putting them in.
45:28
Speaker 1: But you and I might have to have a conversation
45:30
Speaker 1: after the show. Are we gonna lock in? Because there's
45:33
Speaker 1: four that we like right now, and I think the
45:35
Speaker 1: lines on all of them are are iffy. That's fair,
45:39
Speaker 1: so we will talk about that. Simon. I'm gonna ask
45:42
Speaker 1: you a question right now. Can you name the fastest
45:44
Speaker 1: growing ticketing app in the United States?
45:47
Speaker 2: Game Time?
45:48
Speaker 1: Game Time. I love game Time for two reasons. One,
45:51
Speaker 1: they sponsor this show. Two, I actually use game Time
45:54
Speaker 1: to buy tickets. They've got amazing last minute deals on
45:57
Speaker 1: all sorts of tickets, including pro and college football games.
46:00
Speaker 1: Speaking of which, I'm actually going to open game Time
46:04
Speaker 1: from my house right here in Connecticut. I can go
46:09
Speaker 1: to the New York Jets game on Sunday night against
46:10
Speaker 1: the Kansas City Chiefs, and maybe Taylor Swift will be
46:13
Speaker 1: in the house and I can get in for less
46:16
Speaker 1: than one hundred and thirty bucks. Also, it's a beautiful
46:19
Speaker 1: night here on the East Coast, I can go see
46:20
Speaker 1: the New York Mets for six bucks. It's amazing.
46:24
Speaker 2: Folks.
46:24
Speaker 1: You gotta use game Time, and no matter where you live,
46:28
Speaker 1: download the game Time app. Get out have some fun
46:30
Speaker 1: this week, Go sweat your bets live and in person,
46:33
Speaker 1: and you can redeem code favorites for twenty dollars off
46:36
Speaker 1: your first purchase. Terms apply again. Just download the app
46:39
Speaker 1: and enter code favorites for twenty dollars off last minute tickets,
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Speaker 1: lowest price guaranteed. All right, before we get to the
46:47
Speaker 1: money line round Robin, reminder that the Week four contest
46:51
Speaker 1: tiebreaker is New York Giants total penalty yards on Monday Night.
46:58
Speaker 1: Football predictive analyst Billy Ward writes a tiebreaker strategy article
47:04
Speaker 1: every week, and a link to that article can be
47:05
Speaker 1: found in this episode's description. Do you want a leg
47:09
Speaker 1: up in the contest? Also, some listeners have reached out
47:12
Speaker 1: regarding our NFC West preview episode from the summer. Does
47:17
Speaker 1: Simons still think the Seahawks have arguably the best wide
47:21
Speaker 1: receiver trio in NFL history.
47:24
Speaker 2: Through three weeks? I would say no, that hasn't lived
47:29
Speaker 2: up to the hype yet this point.
47:30
Speaker 1: He's walking it back. All right, let's do our money
47:32
Speaker 1: line under walk back, Robin parlay.
47:38
Speaker 2: My dog blocks.
47:40
Speaker 1: Your dog, Your dog blocks mo doll. Here's my suggestions.
47:45
Speaker 1: Are you ready? Hell Y Ravens, Yes, Titans, Yes, Houston, Houston.
47:52
Speaker 2: I was hes podcast.
47:55
Speaker 1: I was hesitating there on the Dolphins, and I would
48:00
Speaker 1: say Houston for sure.
48:01
Speaker 2: Raiders, these are little dogs. Let's get a big dog
48:05
Speaker 2: in there. You want to go Vegas? Or the Jets.
48:07
Speaker 1: I said, I said, Vegas, Vegas.
48:09
Speaker 2: All right, that's four bears. Uh No, they fucking suck.
48:14
Speaker 2: They're not gonna win. I got no faith. You guys
48:17
Speaker 2: don't know. You guys don't even know how to win.
48:18
Speaker 1: Alright, Bucks, Bucks, Yeah, I.
48:21
Speaker 2: Don't hate that. Yeah, Bucks, I can get. Yeah, I
48:24
Speaker 2: rather do I rather do the Bucks and the Bears, all.
48:26
Speaker 1: Right, Bucks, Houston, Ravens, Titans, LVY.
48:32
Speaker 2: That is our damn. That is ugly.
48:34
Speaker 1: That is ugly. That is ugly. Uh, that is our
48:38
Speaker 1: money line, Underdog round Robin Simon. Make Little Caesars, which
48:44
Speaker 1: is the official pizza sponsor of the NFL. Part of
48:47
Speaker 1: your game day, Simon, have you ever had a problem
48:51
Speaker 1: that pizza did not fix?
48:54
Speaker 2: Never, Chad, never ever ever.
48:56
Speaker 1: Order online during our Pizza Pizza pregame one hour before
48:59
Speaker 1: a games and get ready for some football and fine,
49:03
Speaker 1: choose your favorite Little Caesar's pizza or pick the toppings
49:06
Speaker 1: Ukravee Simon. How soon after waking up is it appropriate
49:11
Speaker 1: to eat pizza? A second, it's a trick question. It's
49:16
Speaker 1: never inappropriate to eat pizza. Either way, you win. And
49:20
Speaker 1: speaking of winning, everyone scores with convenient delivery or our
49:25
Speaker 1: in store pizza portal pickup, So grab some friends and
49:28
Speaker 1: enjoy a few slices during the tastiest hour before kickoff.
49:31
Speaker 1: As a reminder for the second time, I'm reminding people
49:34
Speaker 1: you can catch every episode of The Favorites live on
49:37
Speaker 1: YouTube every Tuesday, Thursday, and Sunday. So if you're watching
49:41
Speaker 1: on YouTube, don't forget to give us a like. Subscribe
49:43
Speaker 1: to the Action Network YouTube page. Also catch us in
49:45
Speaker 1: the Action Network app. It's time for Survivors the Survivor
49:53
Speaker 1: Pool pick of the week.
50:03
Speaker 2: We got lucky last week. We just went chalk took
50:06
Speaker 2: the Chiefs, never a doubt. Let's do the same this week.
50:10
Speaker 2: Let everyone else sweat it out. I try to forgeret
50:11
Speaker 2: who they're going to take. Let's just take the forty
50:13
Speaker 2: nine ers. Yeah, there's no way they lose Arizona, and
50:16
Speaker 2: this feels like their easiest game of the season at
50:18
Speaker 2: home against the Cardinals after the Cardinals just won. Give
50:22
Speaker 2: it to me.
50:23
Speaker 1: Listen, I'm just waiting for this line to dip under
50:26
Speaker 1: under fourteen so I can take it at thirteen and
50:28
Speaker 1: a half.
50:28
Speaker 2: That's fair. So I know people like to hear a
50:30
Speaker 2: number two. I'd go Eagles we gave that hurt stat like,
50:35
Speaker 2: I keep saving the Eagles because I really want to
50:36
Speaker 2: use them when I have to, But for some reason,
50:38
Speaker 2: you already took the forty nine ers. Go ahead and
50:41
Speaker 2: use the Eagles, but the forty nine ers have to
50:43
Speaker 2: be the play This week, as a.
50:46
Speaker 1: Reminder of the favorite podcast is presented by Bet three
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Speaker 1: six five. Bet three six five doesn't do ordinary. They
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Speaker 1: and wants help, call one eight hundred gambler in Colorado, Kentucky,
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Speaker 1: off in Iowa, terms and conditions apply before we get
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Speaker 1: out of here. Action Network Director of Research Evan Abrams,
51:39
Speaker 1: the engine behind the stats and the nuggets you hear
51:41
Speaker 1: on the show and across our network, you get the
51:44
Speaker 1: last word. Evan, what is the last word?
51:47
Speaker 3: So? I felt like I was way too mean last week,
51:50
Speaker 3: So these are going to be a little bit more
51:51
Speaker 3: in your favor, feel like, and I've been doing it
51:53
Speaker 3: throughout the show. I was a little bit negative, so
51:55
Speaker 3: it's time to get a little positive. But we have
51:57
Speaker 3: to talk about the Dolphins. Going into this. Understand that,
52:01
Speaker 3: like most league wide trends, when you talk about the
52:04
Speaker 3: Dolphins are going to tell you that they can't keep
52:05
Speaker 3: this up.
52:06
Speaker 2: So this is kind of the theme.
52:07
Speaker 3: So Dolphins are the twelfth team in the last twenty
52:09
Speaker 3: years to be three oh straight up and against the
52:12
Speaker 3: spread and be listed as an underdog in their fourth game.
52:15
Speaker 3: Those previous eleven teams went two to nine straight up
52:18
Speaker 3: and three and eight against the spread in that next game,
52:20
Speaker 3: So basically telling you coming back to the mean, and
52:23
Speaker 3: that tells you a little bit more towards this next one.
52:26
Speaker 3: So this is pretty crazy. The Dolphins are averaging an
52:30
Speaker 3: absurd eight point four yards per play this year. That
52:33
Speaker 3: is the most through three games all time, second most
52:36
Speaker 3: the Greatest Show on Turf in two thousand and eight
52:39
Speaker 3: point one. So that's kind of where we are. And
52:41
Speaker 3: usually these early high power offenses come back to reality.
52:46
Speaker 3: Teams to average six yards per play or more going
52:50
Speaker 3: into their fourth game thirty five, fifty six and one
52:54
Speaker 3: thirty eight percent since twenty nineteen, so recently we've seen
52:57
Speaker 3: more offense. Obviously this comes into play. So those are
53:01
Speaker 3: your two dolphin stats that basically hopes that the Bills
53:03
Speaker 3: cover the game. And I have the money line, so
53:05
Speaker 3: let's go Bills next. This is just a fun one
53:09
Speaker 3: and this probably doesn't have a ton of you know,
53:12
Speaker 3: backup to it, but the Steelers are coming off of
53:14
Speaker 3: road game in Vegas. Teams after playing the Raiders on
53:17
Speaker 3: the road since they moved to Las Vegas are just
53:20
Speaker 3: nine and seventeen against the spread. That's a third worst
53:23
Speaker 3: mark of any team in the NFL. And when that
53:25
Speaker 3: team goes from Vegas to another road game, one in
53:28
Speaker 3: seven against the spread. So not great success but probably
53:33
Speaker 3: more just a fun trend.
53:34
Speaker 1: And that those Texans. Baby, Yeah, I was.
53:36
Speaker 3: Gonna say this is a Texans podcast Chad, so I
53:38
Speaker 3: had to go there. And then lastly, I've said this
53:41
Speaker 3: one before, but it's worth repeating. Teams to score three
53:43
Speaker 3: points or less the previous week sixty five forty two
53:47
Speaker 3: and fours. That's sixty percent since twenty fifteen when those
53:51
Speaker 3: are when they are dogs. In the next week, that
53:54
Speaker 3: goes to forty four to twenty four and two, sixty
53:56
Speaker 3: five percent. That is the Titans, that is the Commanders.
54:00
Speaker 3: So this is, you know, going with the podcast this week,
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Speaker 3: just trying to help out.
54:04
Speaker 1: You're a class act, Evan. You know what, I don't
54:06
Speaker 1: care what Matt Mitchell says about you. I'm glad you're
54:09
Speaker 1: doing this segment, and I'm glad you're contributing possible to recap,
54:13
Speaker 1: to recap our Foxhole, Las Vegas plus five and a half,
54:16
Speaker 1: our Big Balls Bet of the Week, New Jersey, New
54:19
Speaker 1: York Jets plus nine and a half, Our exec Decision
54:22
Speaker 1: Tennessee plus two and a half. Simon says with Buffalo
54:25
Speaker 1: minus two and a half, our money Line Round Robin
54:28
Speaker 1: Underdog Parlay, Houston, Baltimore, Tennessee, Las Vegas, Tampa Bay. Before
54:36
Speaker 1: we sign off, reminder, Simon and I will be back
54:39
Speaker 1: with our Week four recap episode live on AMP and
54:43
Speaker 1: on the Action Network YouTube page and in the Action
54:46
Speaker 1: Network app this Sunday and every Sunday at seven point
54:49
Speaker 1: thirty pm Eastern. Download us from Spotify, Apple Podcast, wherever
54:55
Speaker 1: you get your pods, Rate review, subscribe, WES five stars,
54:58
Speaker 1: say whatever you want feedback is a gift for Simon Hunter,
55:03
Speaker 1: I Am, Chad Noman and two Next week Love You.
55:16
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