Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Felix Prehn - Leaked: Wall Street’s Massive Bailout 🔴Live + Stock Market News 21 July 2025

Transcript

Felix Prehn - Leaked: Wall Street’s Massive Bailout 🔴Live + Stock Market News 21 July 2025 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Oh dear, it seems I was talking to myself.
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: I didn't hit the go live button.
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: Sorry about that.
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: It's the laptop setup, but I was enjoying the conversation.
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: I was reading in the chat here because a lot of you guys were writing some very, very cool things which, like you know, the candle wasn't that good.
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: There was resistance Look at moving averages and so on and it makes me very happy, it makes me very proud because you guys are learning.
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: You're getting good at this, which is amazing.
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: I don't want to talk about that.
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: I want to talk about why Wall Street has five big bullish reasons for why they're big and bullish on the market and I want you to understand that, so you have the same level of understanding as the buggers on Wall Street.
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: And if you think that could be valuable to you, put a five in the chat and I'll see that this time and make punctuality great again.
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: The German was seven minutes late.
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: He was shot.
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: That's probably what happened to my ancestors and congratulations on hitting 300k.
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: That's very kind of you for noticing that.
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: Casey, appreciate that.
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: Yes, I saw that late last night and put a big smile on my face.
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: It means that 300,000 of you decided this wasn't complete dross and drivel and that you felt like you were actually getting some value from this, which is the whole point here.
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: So it makes me very, very happy.
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: So thanks, guys, for 300,000 people.
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: Smashing that subscribe button If you haven't done it already, you know what to do.
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: Smashing that subscribe button If you haven't done it already, you know what to do.
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: You'll be joining a very, very good and smart group.
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: Now, what is the first reason why we are bullish on buybacks?
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: Well, it's on the screen right here.
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: I'm probably pointing in the wrong direction, and it's very simple if you understand what buybacks are and, let's face it, most people don't.
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: What are buybacks?
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: Companies buy their own shares, which sounds a little bit scammy, doesn't it?
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: And that's how they create demand for their own shares, because nobody else wants to buy them.
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: No, not quite.
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: It is a way of returning money to shareholders, but it also does something very, very good for us shareholders.
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: Which is what?
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: Okay, imagine you have a cake, a great big, beautiful Victoria sponge cake or something like that and you cut it into 10 equal slices.
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: Now you have 10 of your friends and you're 10 people in the room and you all could get a piece of cake.
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: Now if I said well, you have to pay for the cake, what would you pay for it?
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: Well, not a lot, because you know you're going to get a piece of cake no matter what you pay.
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: Well, what if I take away three of those slices and I put them in the fireplace next to me here in the incinerator?
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: Well, now we have seven pieces and 10 people.
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: Now, given that you all really, really, really love this cake, what are you going to do?
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: You're going to pay more for the cake because there's less cake.
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: You get the idea.
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: It's a demand and supply thing.
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: So companies are reducing the supply of shares, which makes the shares that are remaining more valuable, but they don't do this in a straight line, nope.
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: And a buyback indicator is actually a fantastic idea, stephen.
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: I'm going to take a screenshot of that.
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: That's actually a very, very good idea because it happens.
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I've taken a screenshot, stephen.
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: I shall submit it as a request.
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: You can also submit it as a request if you like.
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: But essentially what it's telling you?
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: This chart here when it's high, a lot of buybacks.
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: When it's low, very, very few buybacks.
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: So why are there so few buybacks between early May and late June, because earnings season just kicked off and it's illegal for companies to buy their shares just before earnings.
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: And the idea is, I suppose if I know earnings are going to be amazing, I could buy them cheaper, or something.
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: I could sort of manipulate the market so they can't buy, especially here just before earnings season down here, right.
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: So right now, as we're at the very top here see my red arrow we're on peak buyback season, which means lots of money from companies buying their own shares flows into the market this week and coming week and that is very supportive and therefore it is a little hard to see how.
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: Let me show you the pre-market here's the pre-market On the S&P how this could be a terrible day or a terrible week.
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: Tesla's up 1.4%.
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: Verizon's up 2%.
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: Google up 0.8% that's pretty good.
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: Apple 0.7% 2%.
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: Google up 0.8% that's pretty good.
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: Apple's 0.7% up.
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: Meta's 0.3% up that is pretty good stuff, isn't it?
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: You can look at these charts also for the NASDAQ in Trade Vision and you can also make your own, which I absolutely love.
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: You could put your portfolio in here, for example, as a watch list or a sector.
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: You're watching like semiconductors and then you can just see the whole sector just in like one big, beautiful foul swoop.
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: So it's a very, very useful thing to do, I think, and we've even built in the sectors for you here.
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: So if you are, say, bullish on what are we bullish?
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: On utilities, for example?
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: Or Well, you can see utilities pre-market, you could see it during the market and also post-market, and it's a very, very easy and good way to screen the market for big movers.
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: So how do we get out of this?
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: That's a good question, isn't it?
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: Anybody know?
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: Okay, I'm going to have to.
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: There's no all Interesting.
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: Let's see if we can get out of this again.
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: That'll do there we go.
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: So does that make some sense to you?
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: Is that of some value to you?
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: If it is put a V in the chat, my friends and we're going to look at item numero deux for why we are bullish on this market.
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: I'm just going to delete my scribbles so I can scribble on it once more and a bit more clearly.
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: Mr Moose, there, yeah, yeah, we're putting out the Academy Watchers.
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: We're really trying to do that Sunday mornings I mean New York time as early as possible.
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: It's sometimes off by an hour or two, but yeah, the goal is so you guys get that very early Sunday mornings.
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: That's, of course, for my mentees only, because I don't really believe in handing out great big sort of stock pick lists to everybody.
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: It'll get you into trouble.
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: Handing out great big sort of stock pick lists to everybody.
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: It'll get you into trouble.
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: Now everybody out there is saying this rally would be up 25% or something.
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: It's gone too far, like somebody posted a comment on a video yesterday and he wrote something like this market's crazy, I'm waiting for it to implode, sold everything, something like that.
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: And there is a lesson there which is much more money has been lost sitting on the sidelines than actually in crashes, and that's a Peter Lynch quote that I'm butchering.
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: And one way we can sort of gauge where the market is we can look at the position of systematic macro funds, one of these funds they basically buy on.
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: So they sort of chase the market based on sort of data points, and they've chased quite a lot.
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: You can see that here.
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: Right, we were down here.
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: Now we are up there.
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: But if you draw a straight line across, you can also see we're basically in the middle of where we normally are.
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: So is it therefore possible for us to go much, much higher.
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: Yes, that's what I'm trying to say with that.
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: Does that make some sense?
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: Again, put a one in the chat if that makes some sense to you.
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: They're already predicting a crash.
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: Yes, yes, some people are.
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: There are entire YouTube channels dedicated to predicting a crash every Monday and when they're right, they make a video saying I was right on Monday.
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: And you know why not?
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: I suppose some people just need a bit of a dose of doom and gloom every Monday morning.
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: So you know, go for it.
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: This is from a chap called Tony Pasqualello.
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: It's a rather complicated Italian name and he isn't just any old Tony, he is Fat Tony.
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: No, he's Goldman Sachs Tony.
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: So he's a very smart guy.
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: He's generally very highly regarded.
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: And what does he say?
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: He says our desk.
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: It's just concerning that his desk talks modeling 100 billion of demand for global index futures, sort of like stocks, over the next month.
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: At the same time, buyback switches will be thrown to the on position as rolling by N.
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: I'm not inclined to pick a fight with either of these two.
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: It's basically saying there is massive demand for stocks and the buybacks are going to go nuts.
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: These are the two charts I just showed you above, and therefore he's saying be an idiot not to participate in this.
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: That's his way of looking at it.
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: I don't know if Tony Pasquarello is fat who knows, who knows but he's got the sort of influence of that.
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: Now you're going to be asking yourself well, therefore, what stocks do I buy?
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: I have actually just recorded a video where I'm going to give you three stocks that I'm looking at later today.
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: So, again, join the 300,000 loons who've hit the subscribe button on this channel.
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: But much, much easier would be if you could actually do this yourself and you could look at the stock and you could go.
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: I like it, I don't like it.
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: How do you do that?
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: It's very simple.
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: You learn the three rules that Fat Tony is using, and that's a joke.
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: So how do you do that?
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: Well, there's a 15-minute video that I've recorded, where I've put all my brainpower into it and gave you the entire freaking system.
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: You can watch it at felixfriendsorg slash get free.
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: There is even a QR code you can scan if you're technically capable of doing that.
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: I went to a very nice restaurant yesterday.
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: It's very nice, fancy small bits of food, and the menu was on a QR code.
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: I find that slightly disappointing.
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: I don't really want to read the menu on my mobile phone.
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: And then I wanted to pay.
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: Well, I tried to run away, but they stopped me.
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: And then they said you have have to pay.
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: Are kicking me fiercely.
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: Um, and again I had to scan a qr code and then I had to pay on the mobile phone through google pay.
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: I think it spoils the environment.
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: To be honest with you, I think there is something nice about getting a great big menu in a restaurant and then, when you pay, getting handed a beautifully printed receipt and then you get to pay with a credit card.
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: But never mind, there is me ranting off there.
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: Guys are talking about Zim.
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: It still seems to be within the zone, but entirely up to you what you do with that one.
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: So, yes, go and learn that.
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: Now here is reason number three.
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: This is from Deutsche Bank, and we think very little of Deutsche Bank, but they do come up with some decent data every once in a while and they're basically saying that they track data which shows us it takes away from the experience.
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I'm with you on that one.
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: It's just sort of.
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: I mean, it depends on where you're going If I'm ordering a sandwich or a cup of coffee or something.
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: I'm perfectly happy to scan things, but if I'm sitting in a nice place I kind of would like to see a menu.
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: But yes, so here we are.
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: So what does this chart show from the Germans?
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: The Germans are saying that we bottomed out down here.
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: That was the scent, that equity position.
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: So how much of the money was in stocks?
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: How much was sitting in something else?
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: We were sort of bottom out down there, which is historically where we more or less bottom out, and right now we're in the middle, we're at at zero, we're not extended.
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: There's plenty more money around, as Fat Tony says to us, and we could go a lot higher.
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: So pretty much the entire run-up that we've just had.
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: We could, in theory, go higher about two-thirds of that, which as a percentage point not a hard number, obviously would be maybe another 15% or so up until we are really extended, right.
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: So what does that say to you?
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: Don't count out the rally yet.
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: I still think we have a while to go.
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: We might slow down a little bit because everyone's on holiday, that's entirely fine, but we might still go up a little bit more here.
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: Annoying when your phone has no charge.
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: Well, yes, that's a whole nother problem.
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: Paper is highly destructive material, is it?
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: What if you are using it to start a large fire or something?
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: Really, people are against paper.
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: I mean I'm not for wasting it, but I mean I don't know, are people against paper?
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: Now?
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: Your watch lists aren't saving, says Luke.
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: Luke, send us a quick message.
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: There's a support button in the bottom right corner of your Trade Vision screen and we'll get that fixed and looked out for you.
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: Now shall we go through the fourth point, bank of America.
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: They call up all the fund managers and they do that every month, and they ask them how are you feeling, my friend?
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: And normally the answer is I'm on the ledge, should I jump?
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: But they are actually, again, not overweight.
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: So they ask them are you fat?
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: I mean, are you overweight?
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: Stocks, not just generally overweight?
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: The answer is probably mostly yes, unless they can no longer afford food.
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: But then they're not paid by performance, are they?
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: So they're probably on the larger side.
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: I don't know why we keep talking about weight.
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: It seems to be an obsession of mine.
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: No-transcript.