Latest / Three For The Money / NFL Week 14 Gambling Picks, Chiefs Bounce Back, Titans Stink, NFC Beast?
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- 0:49MUSIC
- 1:04OK, OK, OK.
- 1:06We're here to attack the Reef for the Money.
- 1:10New episodes every Thursdays and it is now NFL Week 14.
- 1:16Week 13 is in the past.
- 1:20It is pretty depressing coming this close to the end of the football season.
- 1:27What is it, Sean?
- 1:29I'm counting something, sorry.
- 1:31Don't ignore me.
- 1:32OK.
- 1:34It is pretty depressing that it is Week 14, a week odds of this NFL season.
- 1:41Feels like it just goes by so fast.
- 1:43But it does give our lives very much structure.
- 1:47But we are here.
- 1:49We are back.
- 1:53My week was terrible last week.
- 1:55I went three and seven.
- 1:58And two of those, yes, two of those three wins were both of y'all's picks.
- 2:04So let's go.
- 2:06Technically, I went one and seven.
- 2:10So vibes are pretty low on my end.
- 2:15But you know what?
- 2:16It's a new week.
- 2:17That was last week.
- 2:18This is this week.
- 2:20We're going to move forward with another winning record, hopefully.
- 2:26Chris, how did you do?
- 2:29I went, I don't want to be mean.
- 2:31I went the exact, almost the exact opposite of you.
- 2:36I went eight, three and one.
- 2:39Fantastic.
- 2:40Very good week.
- 2:41It was great.
- 2:42After two weeks getting kicked in the balls, it was good to be back.
- 2:45So I know it's Week 14 and I am sad.
- 2:49And yes, football season is short.
- 2:52It's like that, I forget what book it's for.
- 2:55But John Goodman's narrating it.
- 2:57He's like, you think life is short?
- 2:59Football is short.
- 3:00And every time I see them, I'm like, yeah.
- 3:05It really is.
- 3:06True.
- 3:07True.
- 3:08I've never been spoken.
- 3:09Like I said, eight, three and one.
- 3:11Vibes are high going into this week.
- 3:13So I'm feeling good.
- 3:14Sean, how are we doing?
- 3:18So okay.
- 3:19Noonslate, I went sixth and two.
- 3:25Very good record.
- 3:26Very good record.
- 3:27I did not win a single bet past noon.
- 3:32So ended up going sixth and five.
- 3:38Surefire hit.
- 3:40So can't be too mad.
- 3:44Also, I'll just say, what a snipe by me on that last big surefire.
- 3:51Yeah.
- 3:52That's in total under 17 and a half.
- 3:55You could be more correct.
- 3:57I couldn't have been more correct.
- 4:00There was no possible way for you to be more correct on that pick.
- 4:04Was that the easiest bet you ever won?
- 4:09I mean, when it's team total 17 and a half and they don't score.
- 4:14Yeah.
- 4:15I mean, it's got to be as sweat free as it can get.
- 4:19Other than like boosts of like if like Derek Henry gets half a yard in the first quarter.
- 4:29Those don't count.
- 4:30Yeah.
- 4:31Okay.
- 4:32I'd say it's up there.
- 4:34I'd have to go back and see.
- 4:38But yeah, I'd say it's definitely up there.
- 4:41Nice.
- 4:42Hell yes.
- 4:43Yeah.
- 4:44I'm very thankful that I took both of y'all's surefire picks.
- 4:50I mean, they sounded like absolute money.
- 4:52So how could I not take them?
- 4:54How could not the people take them?
- 4:57So but you know, I was absolutely terrible.
- 5:02I haven't even done the numbers on my record yet.
- 5:05I think I'm still positive on the season, but you know what?
- 5:08We're, we're going to move on.
- 5:10I'm not even going to think about those numbers.
- 5:11I'm going to think about this week's numbers.
- 5:14Okay.
- 5:15Well, what did you go?
- 5:17Three and seven?
- 5:19Yeah.
- 5:20What three and seven?
- 5:22You're still up.
- 5:23You're still up.
- 5:24You're pretty comfortably up.
- 5:25So it shouldn't be an issue.
- 5:26You're still up.
- 5:27Yeah.
- 5:28The gap has shortened, but you're up.
- 5:32You're still up.
- 5:33Yeah.
- 5:34Hopefully it doesn't shorten anymore.
- 5:39Anyway, the first number we'll talk about is week 14.
- 5:45That is the number that we're on.
- 5:47And then the next number will be the first game that we talk about, which will be the
- 5:50Colts at the Bengals.
- 5:53The Bengals are home dogs.
- 5:55They're just looking at me like that.
- 6:00What are you talking about?
- 6:0314's the number?
- 6:04Couldn't ask for a better transition.
- 6:07Yeah.
- 6:08That's why they call me Will the Transition King Palmer.
- 6:14I'd go by a different name.
- 6:15Yeah, I'd go by maybe not the most flattering name, depending.
- 6:23Oh yeah.
- 6:24Well, what game are we talking about?
- 6:28We're talking about Colts at Bengals.
- 6:31Bengals are home dogs by a point and a half.
- 6:35Massive playoff implications for this backup quarterback matchup for some reason.
- 6:44The AFC is low key, wide open.
- 6:49It seems that half of these contending teams have, like all of the starting quarterbacks
- 6:57are out for the season.
- 6:58It's kind of weird.
- 7:03I'm going to start this off one off.
- 7:06This is going to be very uncharacteristic of me.
- 7:08I will be taking over 43 and a half in this game.
- 7:13The Colts, I think I saw today when I was doing research, they've hit 14 of their last
- 7:1919 games for the over, which is insane.
- 7:25I'm going to take that.
- 7:26It seems like the Bengals, even though that they're on their backup quarterback, their
- 7:30backup quarterback is Jake Browning, who was a stud, apparently.
- 7:39Absolute gunslinger out there for Thursday night football.
- 7:45This feels like a safe pick to me, which I'm cool with.
- 7:50I'm cool with being safe just because this matchup is like Will Gardner meant you come
- 7:57down to earth finally, please?
- 8:00Or will Jake Browning, is this a coming out party for Jake Browning?
- 8:04Or is this like, hey, you might have scored 34 points on Thursday night, but now you're
- 8:10going to score a regular amount of points.
- 8:12So, I don't know, we'll see, I think the over is the good play in this.
- 8:17Chris, what do you think?
- 8:20I think it is Jake Browning coming back to earth.
- 8:24The Colts, just, I don't think they're a very good team just on paper, but they just find
- 8:32ways to win these games, which I guess theoretically makes them a good team.
- 8:37But they just, they're always just right there and then they find a way just to steal a win.
- 8:43I'm going to take Colts money line.
- 8:44I think the Bengals come back to earth off of probably one of the biggest wins of the
- 8:50year for them.
- 8:52And the Colts have just been chugging along as much as it pains me to say.
- 8:58I don't know if Gardner meant you was going to come back to earth.
- 9:00I think this might just be who he is.
- 9:03Just a good backup quarterback.
- 9:06And I do like that over.
- 9:08I thought about taking it, but my guts tell me to take the Colts.
- 9:12So Sean, what are you taking?
- 9:15I will be rocking Colts minus one.
- 9:21So basically money line, but I'm getting it just at any fit better value.
- 9:27Both these teams coming off Ws week 13.
- 9:34Like Christian Kirk had his nuts smashed in and Lawrence hadn't gotten hurt.
- 9:40I think the Bengals would have walked away with an L here.
- 9:47I think that's fair.
- 9:48But I bet and to that extent, that's why I think the Colts had the more impressive
- 9:57win of these two teams last week.
- 10:01I mean, Titans let go.
- 10:05Well, yeah, Titans let go our special teams coordinator.
- 10:08So who knows what the fuck was going on with that.
- 10:11But yeah, two blocked punts, one for a touchdown.
- 10:16It was just completely turned the game around and one minus.
- 10:20Well, I've been like, or no, they kicked a field on that one.
- 10:23Didn't they?
- 10:24One of the block.
- 10:25I thought they scored.
- 10:27No, they will.
- 10:28They blocked two.
- 10:28I thought one of them, they kick a field goal.
- 10:33Oh, I can't.
- 10:36It was all just a painful player.
- 10:38Yeah, a lot of shit happened in that game.
- 10:40So yeah, I was just because I was going to say
- 10:44they both might as well have been for touchdowns, but then I caught myself saying,
- 10:48well, wait, man, I think one of those was a field goal, but I don't know for sure.
- 10:51But sorry, continue.
- 10:53Oh, good.
- 10:54But yeah, just Colts keep winning.
- 10:57They're going for their fifth straight win.
- 11:00And I think, and you know, they're not playing juggernauts.
- 11:03They're playing pretty mediocre to bad teams.
- 11:08But you've got to ride the hot hand.
- 11:11Colts minus one.
- 11:13OK, I think that makes sense that.
- 11:19Both of the things that you guys say make sense for this game.
- 11:22So yeah.
- 11:26OK, next game, this game.
- 11:31Had the potential to be awesome.
- 11:34But not so much this season.
- 11:38Bills, Chiefs, Bills kind of pretty mid, if I'm going to be real.
- 11:46And the Chiefs are losing games that they're not not expected to lose.
- 11:51So I don't know.
- 11:53It's like it's it's tough to know what to think about this game.
- 11:59But honestly, who am I going to bet on?
- 12:05The line is only one and a half.
- 12:08Chris, what do you think?
- 12:10I'm going to throw a team.
- 12:11Thank you.
- 12:12I'll take another money line.
- 12:13I'm taking Chiefs money line.
- 12:15This is we've I feel like we've been set up for this so many times in the past.
- 12:21Like, is this finally the year the Chiefs like actually don't get the one seed?
- 12:26Is this finally their quote unquote downfall?
- 12:29And then they just rattle off dubs.
- 12:31They do not look great right now.
- 12:33I will say that.
- 12:34But I mean, the Bills look terrible up until they beat the hell out of the Jets
- 12:39and then someone else.
- 12:41I don't remember.
- 12:42I just the Chiefs, the Chiefs are going to win this game.
- 12:45And it's an arrowhead.
- 12:46I feel like the the Bills just don't.
- 12:49I feel like they just don't win an arrowhead.
- 12:52So I'm taking the Chiefs all day here.
- 12:54This is just to get right spot.
- 12:56And they remind us like who the fuck they are.
- 12:59So I think it's pretty simple for me.
- 13:02Will, what are you taking?
- 13:04I'm also going to take the Chiefs here.
- 13:06It's I kind of kind of led up to this before I throw it to you.
- 13:11But then I remember that I had to throw it to you.
- 13:15I think if if I'm going to put money on either of these teams, who am I going to?
- 13:21Who am I going to?
- 13:21Who am I going to bet?
- 13:22Am I going to bet Josh Allen with a mid ass team that throws
- 13:27interceptions quite frequently, to be honest?
- 13:31Or am I going to throw it to Patrick Mahomes, who has under.
- 13:35Underperformed this season, but it's Patrick Mahomes.
- 13:39It's two times Super Bowl winning Patrick Mahomes.
- 13:43I'm going to take the Chiefs minus one and a half here.
- 13:46It's I'm just trying to keep it simple.
- 13:49Maybe I did a little over thinking last week.
- 13:52Just trying to move past it.
- 13:54Keep it simple.
- 13:55Stupid.
- 13:56Sean, what is your play?
- 14:00Well, the bills are terrible.
- 14:05They're fucking awful.
- 14:06And it it makes me sad a little bit.
- 14:12Because it makes me like low key.
- 14:16I like the bill.
- 14:17I think they're a fun franchise.
- 14:20They are a miserable franchise and I relate to them very heavily.
- 14:25But also this one is super easy for me.
- 14:29And I was going to take this even before I found this.
- 14:33But I do have a little small interesting stat to back this up.
- 14:39Since 2018, Patrick Mahomes is 17 and three on the money line after a loss.
- 14:47This season after a loss, the Chiefs are a perfect three and oh against the spread.
- 14:52And I expect this to be four and oh by the time this game goes final.
- 14:57I will be double dipping in this game of Chiefs minus one and a half and money woman.
- 15:03So we all ride.
- 15:05I ride with both of you boys and we all ride.
- 15:08Let's go.
- 15:09All right.
- 15:11Let's rock.
- 15:12OK.
- 15:14Very simple game.
- 15:15OK.
- 15:16Next game, the third game that we're going to talk about Broncos at Chargers Chargers
- 15:22are favored by two and a half.
- 15:25Seems kind of weird.
- 15:27They they beat the Pats last week in a stinker of a game and absolute.
- 15:35Oh my gosh.
- 15:36I'm glad I didn't watch this game.
- 15:38I this is this is this would be an affront to football.
- 15:42It says I don't know what happened in that game except for the Pats not scoring any obviously.
- 15:51But man.
- 15:54Chargers favored by two and a half.
- 15:56I just feel like they shouldn't be favored against anyone unless that team is really,
- 16:01really bad.
- 16:02And I don't think the Broncos are very bad.
- 16:05I feel like this could be a trap spot here.
- 16:08But I will be taking under 43 and a half.
- 16:11That is my play for this game.
- 16:13I don't feel comfortable betting either side for this.
- 16:19Broncos defense is definitely something that you can bet on.
- 16:25And I think you can also bet on the Chargers fucking something up like not in a good way.
- 16:33What they do best.
- 16:34Yeah, they're not a very good team or franchise.
- 16:38So I'm taking under 43 and a half.
- 16:41I think that's the play here.
- 16:43I'm going to throw it to Sean.
- 16:48I'd love to go.
- 16:51Well Chargers snapped a three game losing streak in one of the stinkiest games this
- 16:57year against the Patriots without scoring a touchdown.
- 17:08I'm actually not sure if this offense has a pulse.
- 17:14If it does, it's got to be on life support or it's in hospice care or something.
- 17:22But Chargers are not good.
- 17:26The Broncos, if Russ hadn't thrown that pick at the very end of the game, they'd be one
- 17:30game within the Chiefs for the AFC West.
- 17:34Broncos are still one of the hottest teams in the NFL.
- 17:38And they're still fighting for a playoff spot.
- 17:40And this is a very winnable game for the Broncos.
- 17:45But I'm going to play it safe and just lay the spread of Broncos plus two and a half.
- 17:51Chris, do you agree or disagree?
- 17:54I completely agree with Will.
- 17:57I am taking under 44.
- 17:59I agree with you as well, but I am taking under 44.
- 18:04The Broncos run the ball really well.
- 18:08And the Chargers cannot stop the run at all.
- 18:12Vice versa.
- 18:13Chargers cannot run the ball whatsoever.
- 18:14Their only real weapon is Keenan Allen.
- 18:17And the Broncos secondary is pretty damn good.
- 18:20So that's just recipe for the under 44.
- 18:24I feel like it's kind of high, honestly.
- 18:27For, I mean, the Chargers offense is so bad.
- 18:30They're in positive care.
- 18:34They are.
- 18:35Like six damn points against the Patriots.
- 18:40But I mean, I can't show the Patriots too much because they pushed a plus six without
- 18:46scoring a point.
- 18:48So I guess I'm thankful for that.
- 18:51But yeah, it's under 44 all day here for me.
- 18:56I think that the Chargers offense has a higher ceiling of capability.
- 19:05Not right now.
- 19:06Not right now.
- 19:07I mean, just like in general, when they're all healthy, when they don't draft bum receivers,
- 19:15like Quinton Johnston.
- 19:17Yeah.
- 19:18I really thought that guy, I thought that guy was going to be good at a TCU.
- 19:21I thought he was going to be good.
- 19:22That guy sucks.
- 19:24Yeah.
- 19:26That is unfortunate for them.
- 19:29But you know, that's, it's not about the potential overall.
- 19:34It's about the potential right now.
- 19:36It's very tough to see either of these teams really combined to put up.
- 19:42What is that?
- 19:44Six touchdowns at least.
- 19:46No.
- 19:47I mean, more than six touchdowns.
- 19:50No, that would, well, yeah, you're right.
- 19:52Yeah.
- 19:53Yeah.
- 19:54Right.
- 19:55Numbers.
- 19:56I'm a numbers guy.
- 19:57Six and a field goal.
- 19:58Yeah.
- 19:59Clearly a numbers guy.
- 20:02Yeah.
- 20:03I'm all about the numbers.
- 20:04I'm willing numbers over here.
- 20:06Okay.
- 20:07Next game.
- 20:09Is this Sunday Night Football?
- 20:10Mm-hmm.
- 20:11Okay.
- 20:12Sunday Night Football.
- 20:13Eagles at the Cowboys, Divisional Matchup, this game could rock.
- 20:20This game could be awesome.
- 20:23Both teams, pretty, pretty, pretty white lava hot, except for the Eagles last week, got
- 20:28absolutely boat raced by the far superior 49ers.
- 20:35I was trying to overthink it.
- 20:37I thought that taking the Eagles when everyone was fading them would be that, would be the
- 20:42play.
- 20:44It just wasn't.
- 20:45But we all did.
- 20:46Yeah.
- 20:47I didn't.
- 20:48Yeah.
- 20:49Okay.
- 20:50Okay, Chris.
- 20:51Just saying.
- 20:53Cowboys at home, favorite by three and a half.
- 20:55Sean, what is your play for this game?
- 20:58I know that you are bricked up for this matchup.
- 21:02I'm actually not bricked up for it because this game had me in such a pretzel.
- 21:11There's so many different moving parts to this.
- 21:15This may go a little long, and I apologize, but I kind of got a lot to talk about with
- 21:20this.
- 21:21Cook.
- 21:22All right.
- 21:23Please, Cook.
- 21:24The Eagles, the Eagles got absolutely smacked around like a misbehaved child at a Catholic
- 21:30boarding school against the 49ers.
- 21:34Like none spanking bare ass with rulers talking like, man, I did not see that ass beating
- 21:44coming.
- 21:45But, you know, at the same time, the Cowboys continue to put up huge numbers against bad
- 21:52or average teams.
- 21:55But this is honestly the last game that Billy has to worry about.
- 22:02Like absolutely has to worry about.
- 22:05Through this, their schedule is a complete take-off with Giants twice, Seahawks, and
- 22:14Cardinals.
- 22:16Take.
- 22:18Take.
- 22:20And guys, I dug so deep into this game.
- 22:24I'll tell you how deep I dug.
- 22:30The boys have the best point differential in the league, outscoring their opponents by
- 22:36168 points.
- 22:39Yeah.
- 22:41Yeah.
- 22:43The boys can put up numbers.
- 22:47And you know, the Eagles are tied for seven.
- 22:50They're tied with the Lions, currently.
- 22:53And just with the way the Cowboys are playing right now, CD-Lam is one of the hottest wide
- 22:59receivers in the league right now.
- 23:02Besides Tyree Killiforce, who is just an unstoppable, I don't think he's human, but yeah.
- 23:09And the Eagles secondary just got scorched against the 40-ners.
- 23:16Absolutely scorched.
- 23:18But this just seems like such a bounce back game for the Eagles.
- 23:24And what really started this whole process was, what does the playoff picture look like
- 23:32between these two teams?
- 23:36And I was looking at the numbers and the Cowboys win the division.
- 23:43If the Cowboys win this week and win out, they will be 14 and 3.
- 23:50And assuming, and based on the Eagles' remaining schedule, they will also be 14 and 3.
- 23:57If these two teams are tied, there is no way the Cowboys will win this division.
- 24:04Right?
- 24:05I mean, what's the second?
- 24:08It comes down to conference play at this time, which the Cowboys lost to the Cardinals.
- 24:15So they have one more conference loss.
- 24:18They'll have the same amount of division wins and losses, but it will then come down to
- 24:26conference play at that point.
- 24:33But this may sound crazy, but even if the Eagles lose this game, they kind of have nothing
- 24:43to worry about for the rest of the season.
- 24:47Like this, as crazy as this is, this is a game they can afford to lose.
- 24:53You're right.
- 24:56Yeah.
- 24:57And while the Cowboys still have to face the Bills, the Dolphins, and the Lions in their
- 25:04next three games after the Eagles, Cowboys need to do their job at home to remain in the
- 25:14hunt to become NFC e-champs, to win their division.
- 25:19And if they do that, they just have to hope for a miracle that somehow the Eagles will
- 25:27drop one of these take-walk games, and then it will come down to the point differential,
- 25:34which then the Cowboys will win the division.
- 25:40And with all that being said, I am going to take the Cowboys minus three in a row.
- 25:47This may sound crazy, but you never know.
- 25:56I think I laid out some pretty good points, and I think it's just up in the air.
- 26:01I think the Cowboys just got to go and do their job, and basically I'm just betting
- 26:05on them to do exactly that, just to beat the Eagles by four points, which is very doable
- 26:17at this point, with their secondary being just in shambles.
- 26:26But I would love to hear what you guys think.
- 26:28I'm sure you disagree with me, but I would love to hear it.
- 26:32Chris, I can hear you snickering.
- 26:34There you go, Nets.
- 26:37Okay.
- 26:38I definitely don't disagree with you in the fact that I really have no idea what to make
- 26:42of this game, because of pretty much everything you just said.
- 26:47Just the run-offs from this game for both teams going opposite directions is wild, and
- 26:53that this is like the Cowboys do or die game, and the Eagles, like you said, they can play
- 27:00their backups the next month and win out.
- 27:04They could still be the one seed in the end of the season.
- 27:08Yeah.
- 27:09David Carr already thinks Marcus Mariota is a better quarterback than Jalen Hertz, so
- 27:15I'm sure he would love to see that.
- 27:17But I'm sticking with my system.
- 27:22All year it's been load up on the Cowboys when they play shitty teams, fade them when
- 27:28they play good teams.
- 27:30Because I don't know what to make of this game, I'm just sticking with it, Eagles plus
- 27:34three and a half.
- 27:37I can see this being a game.
- 27:39If I bet on the Cowboys and they lost, I should be like, what was I doing?
- 27:44I've been right on this team all year.
- 27:47What was I thinking?
- 27:49And if the Eagles get blown out, I'm like, you know what?
- 27:51I stepped with my guns.
- 27:54I just went in my system that I've been going with all year.
- 27:57Sometimes it loses.
- 27:58So I'm taking the Eagles plus three and a half when in doubt.
- 28:01Just stick with your system.
- 28:03So what will you be taking this one?
- 28:07So I think Sean here definitely has a galaxy brain moment.
- 28:14This man is playing like 5D chess.
- 28:19It is crazy.
- 28:22I didn't even think of that.
- 28:24But I guess it is that time of year in the season to where you got to think about seeding
- 28:30and playoff implications.
- 28:33You got to think about that kind of stuff.
- 28:35And these divisional matchups are the most important games.
- 28:41This is a tough one to pick sides.
- 28:44I definitely shared what both of y'all felt with picking these sides.
- 28:51The mental gymnastics on what to pick for each side.
- 28:55And Chris, you talked about sticking to your system plays.
- 29:02And I mean, it's no secret what my play here is.
- 29:05It's the under.
- 29:06It's under 51 and a half.
- 29:09I know it's lame.
- 29:10I know it sucks.
- 29:11I know it's a bitch move.
- 29:13But I'm doing it.
- 29:16I think all the prime time games last week went over.
- 29:21But like all of them the past three, what?
- 29:25What was the total for Sunday Night Football?
- 29:28Just because that was a little like it was kind of in the middle.
- 29:32It did.
- 29:33Okay.
- 29:34I didn't know what the total was.
- 29:35Yeah.
- 29:36The total was like 42, 42 and a half.
- 29:39It was at like 49 or whatever.
- 29:42So I think all the prime time games last week went over.
- 29:47It was due.
- 29:48It was due for a loss.
- 29:50As gamblers we know that sometimes you're due.
- 29:54And you know, we stick to the system.
- 29:58Stick to the system.
- 29:59You're going to have losses.
- 30:00You're going to have dubs.
- 30:02But hopefully it's a winning system.
- 30:03Got more dubs than losses.
- 30:05So that is my play for this game.
- 30:08I know it sucks.
- 30:09I know it's a cop out.
- 30:11But I mean, it's worked for me.
- 30:15I am scared.
- 30:16I am scared though.
- 30:1851 is very capable for both of these teams.
- 30:22It is pretty high though.
- 30:24Yeah.
- 30:25It is pretty high.
- 30:26So at least you have that.
- 30:27It's not like it's like 44 and a half or something like that.
- 30:29Yeah.
- 30:30Cowboys Eagles.
- 30:31That's the play.
- 30:32All right.
- 30:33Next game.
- 30:34Monday Night Football Titans at Dolphins.
- 30:41It is 13 and a half.
- 30:45I think if people have faith in the Titans, they're completely wrong.
- 30:52They don't know anything about football or the Titans because this team is an absolute
- 30:57dumpster fire.
- 30:59Chris, do you have a play?
- 31:02I want to say something.
- 31:04I want to say something real quick.
- 31:07Titans are the second worst team in the AFC behind the Jets because of strength of win.
- 31:15Yeah, because they beat the Eagles.
- 31:18Yeah.
- 31:19And the Bills.
- 31:20That's how fucking bad the Titans are.
- 31:24Yeah.
- 31:25It's not good.
- 31:28It's not good.
- 31:29Fuck it.
- 31:30Give me a draft pick.
- 31:31Fuck it.
- 31:32Yeah.
- 31:33Okay.
- 31:34Chris, what's your pick?
- 31:35Well, as you can see, I have zero confidence in this team whatsoever, but I'm not going
- 31:43to bet against them.
- 31:44So I'm over 46 and a half.
- 31:48The Dolphins can get this on their own.
- 31:50The Titans secondary is a disaster.
- 31:55And Simmons isn't playing.
- 31:56So I mean, just their whole defense is a disaster.
- 32:00The whole offense is a disaster.
- 32:02Special teams is a disaster.
- 32:04This team sucks.
- 32:05So yes, the Dolphins can definitely score 47 points.
- 32:09Tyree Kill is going to have 3,000 yards in this game.
- 32:14I would bet on the Dolphins if I wasn't a Titans fan.
- 32:18So over 46 and a half.
- 32:20And maybe something cool will happen.
- 32:24Maybe we'll love us to do something cool.
- 32:26But yeah, over 46 and a half.
- 32:28I'm so excited.
- 32:30Word.
- 32:31Will, what are you taking?
- 32:33This is a system play.
- 32:36This is under 46 and a half.
- 32:38I'm very scared.
- 32:41This is the only way I'm going to take a Dolphins under for the rest of the season.
- 32:49I've learned my lesson.
- 32:51I've learned my lesson with Dolphins unders.
- 32:53But they're playing prime time.
- 32:55I got to take it.
- 32:56This is a system play.
- 32:59Not very confident.
- 33:01But you know what?
- 33:02We're going to rock with it.
- 33:04Maybe the Titans defense will just not be incredibly not good.
- 33:14Yeah, incredibly not bad.
- 33:17Maybe.
- 33:19So that's what I'm hoping.
- 33:22Not very confident.
- 33:23But we're going to rock with it.
- 33:25Sean, what is your play?
- 33:30I want to go back to what Chris said about Tyreek Hill.
- 33:35Do you guys know who has the single most yards in a NFL game?
- 33:43Is it Tyreek Hill?
- 33:44No, it's not Tyreek Hill.
- 33:47Like ever?
- 33:48Yeah, like the single best wide receiving game.
- 33:51Oh, wide receiver.
- 33:52Yeah.
- 33:53I don't know.
- 33:54Calvin Johnson.
- 33:55Is it Coleith Raymond?
- 33:56No, it is Calvin Johnson is second.
- 34:00Coleith Raymond.
- 34:01Coleith Raymond.
- 34:02Jesus Christ.
- 34:03No, it was Flipper Anderson.
- 34:06That's not a person of the Los Angeles Rams in 1989 with 336 yards, 15 receptions and one
- 34:19touchdown.
- 34:22Against the Titans, Tyreek Hill is going to surpass this with fucking ease.
- 34:31He is already just a superhuman as it is going against a just awful secondary.
- 34:41He I mean, God, he's already on pace to be to have the best wide receiver season ever.
- 34:49And I feel like this game is almost cheating to get him that like stat like that praise
- 34:58because this is just it's going to be so easy for him.
- 35:02But that's not the play.
- 35:04I just wanted to I just wanted to bring that up how Tyreek Hill is going to eat Monday
- 35:11night spotlights on him.
- 35:14That's where he likes it.
- 35:15He is he is going to eat.
- 35:17I would invest heavily on all of his overs.
- 35:23But shit, I lost.
- 35:28Okay.
- 35:30In the 12 games that the Dolphins have played this year, they have scored 384 points.
- 35:39That's averaging 32 points per game.
- 35:43And much like the Cowboys boy, do they sure like to beat the shit out of bad teams?
- 35:52And their team total is set at 30 and a half for Monday.
- 36:02I really don't want to bet on either side of this game.
- 36:04I'm not going to bet against the Titans.
- 36:06I'm not going to bet on the Titans, but I am going to bet the Dolphins score 31 points.
- 36:14Yeah, without a doubt.
- 36:17No, no question.
- 36:19That's one of the highest team totals I've seen.
- 36:23And I it's it's like that's that's just it's just money.
- 36:29That's just free money.
- 36:31So that's the play.
- 36:33Titans team total over 30 and a half.
- 36:37Okay.
- 36:38Well, that's going to be our full slate of games that we talk about go a little bit in
- 36:43depth with.
- 36:44So now we're going to go to our surefire picks.
- 36:47Surefire double unit plays.
- 36:49Okay.
- 36:50Who wants to go first?
- 36:53I'll go first.
- 36:55Oh, okay.
- 36:56No, you can go first.
- 36:58Okay.
- 36:59Chris, tell me your double unit surefire play of the week.
- 37:05I would love to will.
- 37:07I said it earlier that this was kind of no brainer.
- 37:11Chief's money line at home against the bills.
- 37:14I Sean stole my stat.
- 37:17So I'm sorry.
- 37:20Thanks.
- 37:21But but yeah, like you said, since 2018 17 three straight up after a loss.
- 37:28In and oh last 10 after a loss straight up.
- 37:31So chief's money line all day.
- 37:34Like I said, they remind us just who the hell they are and they get back on track.
- 37:39So Sean, what is your double unit surefire guaranteed not to lose play of the week?
- 37:48Well, I have since switched it since we started talking.
- 37:55And it was something that will said that was like, yep, I'm going to take this.
- 38:01My double unit surefire play of the week is Cowboys minus three and a half will saying
- 38:09I'm on galaxy brain time was just like, if I if if I am right in this, it will be like
- 38:18will last year with his with his Jags covering the playoff game against the Chargers.
- 38:25He had the biggest brain of all of us last year for that single play.
- 38:31And I want that credit this year.
- 38:35I want I want more credit.
- 38:38I want a galaxy brain.
- 38:40I don't want a big brain.
- 38:41I want a galaxy brain.
- 38:43And I feel like I don't have to repeat anything I said because I think it's just all true.
- 38:52Cowboys just need to go in, do their job and just win.
- 38:58When by touchdown, you can do it.
- 39:01You only lost to the Eagles by five in Philly.
- 39:05You're 14 and oh at home in your last 14 games.
- 39:10You can do it, blow him out of the water.
- 39:15I would love to see my are our Eagles friend just in shambles because it was really fun
- 39:22watching him watch that game last week.
- 39:25So Cowboys minus three and a half double unit surefire play of the week.
- 39:32Will, are you ready to give your surefire play of the week?
- 39:38Yeah.
- 39:39It was just really fun to see our friend quite beside himself.
- 39:45It's fun to see your friends suffer.
- 39:47Yeah.
- 39:48It's there's no there's no easy way to say that.
- 39:52Okay.
- 39:53Okay.
- 39:54My surefire pick of the week is actually the same stat that I gave out last week.
- 40:01It's the well rested unders teams where both teams are more than seven days rested and
- 40:07the over under is less than 50 are 72 34 and two.
- 40:13Okay.
- 40:14I'll be taking Vikings Raiders under 40.
- 40:19This stat of course was brought to you by the the great the great people at the trend
- 40:25center app.
- 40:27Yeah.
- 40:29And both both of these teams the Vikings and the Raiders are both two and 18 on the
- 40:35over two and eight on the both on the over under in the past 10 games.
- 40:42Both these teams struggle to put up points.
- 40:45I know the Justin Jefferson's back.
- 40:47That doesn't scare me 40 points under 40.
- 40:53It's a lock.
- 40:54Yeah.
- 40:55I don't I don't think JJ coming back should scare you really.
- 40:59Yeah.
- 41:00Who's throwing to him.
- 41:01Yeah.
- 41:02I don't know.
- 41:03Hey.
- 41:04Easy.
- 41:05Is he.
- 41:06Yeah.
- 41:07One bad game come.
- 41:09No.
- 41:10They O'Connell said well we'll see in practice but I mean you kind of have to say that for
- 41:17the guy has like four turnovers.
- 41:18Yeah.
- 41:19And he's a backup.
- 41:20I think they're going to roll them.
- 41:21I don't.
- 41:22I don't.
- 41:23That.
- 41:24Well that's why I said I don't know because I mean I don't think it's been announced
- 41:29yet as of yet but I think it has.
- 41:34I mean honestly it's not like Josh Dobbs to forget the guy's name the kid from BYU.
- 41:41I think it's from BYU.
- 41:44It's not like some like other wordly drop off.
- 41:49I think they're probably around the same skill set.
- 41:53I would guess.
- 41:56Well I was going to say I think Dobbs is better.
- 41:59I mean Dobbs is better but it's not like if they benched Dobbs you're not going to be
- 42:05like what are you doing.
- 42:07He's the franchise.
- 42:09Yeah.
- 42:10He's our guy.
- 42:11Yeah.
- 42:12Like it would be sad but.
- 42:14I mean people were shaving their heads and their eyebrows for the guy but I mean.
- 42:19That son of a bitch feels so stupid.
- 42:21That's fake.
- 42:22Who shaved his eyebrows.
- 42:25They haven't even grown back yet and tops through four pits.
- 42:30Hey he's still the Aleppo Shikin.
- 42:33So he is.
- 42:34He always will be but damn.
- 42:35Like that fans.
- 42:36Yeah.
- 42:37Yeah.
- 42:38Yep.
- 42:39That's my play Vikings Raiders under 40 and a half.
- 42:45Well rested unders.
- 42:46We're running it back.
- 42:48Same as last week.
- 42:50Okay.
- 42:51That's a surefire picks.
- 42:53Let's go into the rest of our cards.
- 42:56Sean what is the rest of your card for this NFL week.
- 43:03Rest of my card.
- 43:04Rest of my card.
- 43:06Well.
- 43:07Sorry I had to pull something up.
- 43:11I have the Panthers Saints under 37 and a half.
- 43:15I still like that stat that we gave out which we found on Trend Center which is the
- 43:23total set below 38.
- 43:27Have a insane hit rate which hit last week.
- 43:32One of them I think.
- 43:34Well hold on.
- 43:40Well besides the Bengals Jags which was set at 38 but the Falcons Jets game was that was
- 43:48another just easy win.
- 43:50I mean that was one of the weirder scores I've ever seen too.
- 43:5513-8.
- 43:57Just what a when we were watching it I turned to Chris and I was just like God what a fucking
- 44:03Falcons Jets score.
- 44:06I mean it was like it's just.
- 44:11Next I've got the Ravens minus seven against the Rams.
- 44:17I think Ravens kind of start laying their dick on the table a little bit.
- 44:23Showing off at home against the 500 Rams team.
- 44:27I think that's pretty self-explanatory.
- 44:32I also have the Lions Bears over 44.
- 44:36Those games always get weird.
- 44:39Those any I think any game that the Bears are involved with in a divisional game.
- 44:46They just get wonky and I think it's a I think I'm going to bring back sneaky over.
- 44:54This is a sneaky over game.
- 44:56Lock it in.
- 44:58Next game I've got Texans Jets under 33 for the same reason I have Panthers Saints under
- 45:0437.
- 45:07I don't think the Jets could put up any points against this Texans team.
- 45:13Texans just lost Tank Dell for the year unfortunately.
- 45:18You hate to see that.
- 45:21Yeah I just you just hate to see a rising player who's actually like he's pretty fucking
- 45:29good just go out like that but yeah.
- 45:34I also have the Bucks Falcons over 39 and a half.
- 45:38I feel like that could get a little gross and just no defense will be played at all.
- 45:46And to cap it all off I've got the Seahawks Niners over 47 and a half.
- 45:53Seahawks put up Numbies on the on the Cowboys which was pretty fun game to watch.
- 46:01And obviously we know what the 49ers can do.
- 46:04So I feel like this game could go over pretty easily.
- 46:07It's my card.
- 46:10Who would like to go next?
- 46:11Will would you like to go next?
- 46:14Yes I will go next.
- 46:16Because Chris probably has like 13 more plays.
- 46:21Good way to round it out.
- 46:24I got two more plays.
- 46:26One of them is the Detroit Bears over 43.
- 46:32It's I don't think that this is a sneaky over.
- 46:37I think that if you don't take this over you don't know what you're doing.
- 46:42I think that the Lions have an amazing offense and that the Lions also have a terrible defense.
- 46:49And I think that divisional games a lot of things can happen.
- 46:53It seems that like the past couple of the games that the Bears have played they've shown
- 46:57that they are kind of somewhat competent even though they are one of the worst teams in
- 47:02the league.
- 47:05It shows that they're sort of putting the pieces together a little bit.
- 47:10I don't know.
- 47:11Call me crazy.
- 47:13But over 43 I just think that's that's that's that's this is such an easy like Lions go
- 47:20up 21 in the first quarter and then Bears come back.
- 47:24You know much like the Saints who have a dog shit offense.
- 47:29I think that the Bears are more than capable of you know adding to this over in the total
- 47:37than my other play.
- 47:38I got Green Bay at the Giants.
- 47:40I think this is the other Monday night game.
- 47:44This is the under 36 and a half.
- 47:48This is a system play.
- 47:49Hate it.
- 47:50It stinks.
- 47:51But this is probably going to hit.
- 47:53I feel pretty confident about this.
- 47:56I don't have any confidence to tell me to veto.
- 47:59I think that Green Bay because probably score 30 and Giants can't really do a whole lot.
- 48:06So that's where I'm going.
- 48:08Those are my plays.
- 48:11Green Bay New York under 36 and Lions at Bears over 43 and a half.
- 48:18Chris what's the rest of your card.
- 48:20All right.
- 48:21We'll start out with maybe a spicy one I guess.
- 48:23I'm saying both y'all.
- 48:25These Bears under 43 and a half.
- 48:28This game is being played outside.
- 48:29Jarragoff is atrocious when football games are played outside.
- 48:33He sucks.
- 48:35The Bears defense is sneaky good right now.
- 48:38They're actually playing with their hair on fire lately.
- 48:41I know the Lions this season they have had a good offense.
- 48:47They went up they scored three touchdowns in the first like five minutes against the Saints
- 48:51and then fell asleep at the wheel.
- 48:53I don't think they can do that against this defense right now honestly.
- 48:57And I heard there's going to be some bad weather.
- 48:59I heard a lot of wind is coming in.
- 49:01So Lions Bears under 43 and a half.
- 49:05Faden-Sean again on this one Rams plus seven.
- 49:08I think LA's got a sneaky good offense.
- 49:12They move the ball pretty easily against a good Browns defense last week.
- 49:18And honestly I think the Rams defense is pretty under I think the Rams as a whole are an underrated
- 49:23team.
- 49:24So if you're giving me a touchdown with them I'll take it.
- 49:27So give me plus seven on that.
- 49:30This line has moved a lot since I wrote this down.
- 49:33I wrote down Jets plus five and a half because that seemed like a lot of points.
- 49:38But it's not the numbers moved to three and a half.
- 49:40So I'm switching Texans minus three and a half.
- 49:44If you give me three and a half with anyone against the Jets I'm going to take it.
- 49:48That team blows.
- 49:49I know Zach Wilson's back whoopee.
- 49:54That team blows.
- 49:55So Texans minus three and a half.
- 49:5849ers minus 10 and a half.
- 50:02They're just going to keep rolling.
- 50:03Seahawks come back to earth after I think they played out of their minds on what it
- 50:08last Thursday night.
- 50:09I don't think that happens again 49ers smush them.
- 50:13Falcons minus two and a half.
- 50:15Falcons they're run game pretty good.
- 50:17I think Tampa Bay's defense is incredibly overrated.
- 50:20So Falcons minus two and a half.
- 50:22And then let's close it out the stinker.
- 50:26Hold your nose.
- 50:27Panthers plus five and a half against the Saints.
- 50:30Jesus.
- 50:31Panthers are playing better.
- 50:34Not good but better.
- 50:37Much like the Falcons.
- 50:38Did Derek Carr get hurt?
- 50:42Well, I have that written down.
- 50:46There's what much like the Falcons the Panthers are they are playing.
- 50:50They have a good run game right now.
- 50:52They have a good run game right now.
- 50:53Saints can't stop the run whatsoever.
- 50:56And like you just said Derek Carr possibly hurt.
- 51:00He was limited at practice today.
- 51:01I saw Taysom Hill.
- 51:02I don't think even practice.
- 51:04So it's James time.
- 51:07Could be James time.
- 51:09James time.
- 51:11Michael Thomas obviously on IR.
- 51:13I love I play last week.
- 51:16I didn't watch.
- 51:17Yeah.
- 51:18Okay.
- 51:19I don't know.
- 51:20I think he did.
- 51:21And then Rashid Shahid is questionable.
- 51:22So yep, that's it.
- 51:24There's 13 plays this week.
- 51:27I love it.
- 51:28Let's ride the hot hand.
- 51:29I fully understand why you took the Panthers.
- 51:34It's I get it.
- 51:36The Saints blow right now.
- 51:38Yeah.
- 51:39They're not good at home.
- 51:40They're not good at home at all.
- 51:43It's tough for me to put money on really either of those teams.
- 51:47So especially James.
- 51:49Yeah.
- 51:50I forbid.
- 51:53Stuff to know what you're you're getting yourself into in that game.
- 51:57But you know, you're a stronger man than I am.
- 52:02Okay.
- 52:03Yeah, that's it.
- 52:08College football bowl seasons coming up.
- 52:11Let's see what else.
- 52:15What else in the in the gambling world is going on?
- 52:18We I really haven't been been doing too much midweek gambling.
- 52:23Yeah, you know, it's a busy time of year.
- 52:26But yeah, it's a busy time of year and I also got taken to the cleaners couple weeks like
- 52:32these past couple weeks during the during the weekdays and it's just like man.
- 52:41Let's just wait for Sunday.
- 52:43Yeah.
- 52:44How did how did you do yesterday?
- 52:47So I think I went two and two or two and three with the parlay.
- 52:55But yeah.
- 53:00So I was I was actually checking after I made those picks.
- 53:05I was checking my picket account.
- 53:08Because you can see I love picket up.
- 53:11You can see like all different like leagues and like what what you've won in leagues and
- 53:18surprisingly the NHL is my absolute worst.
- 53:22Oh, yeah, I found that to be quite surprising.
- 53:27And I was like, oh, but then after last night, I was like, I get it.
- 53:32Like just like, like these little like two and three nights they add up.
- 53:36So it's like it's like I get it.
- 53:40Yeah.
- 53:42I guess I feel like when you are real hot with the with the props.
- 53:52It was it was kind of like you hit like one or two plus money ones or you would miss those
- 53:59but get like two or three like minus odds ones.
- 54:03Yeah, which I will start getting back into props.
- 54:08But I think the props like really skyrocket after the like the new year.
- 54:17So I'm going to wait till after the holidays to get more into that.
- 54:23I dipped my toes into it a little bit earlier this year.
- 54:28Still, I didn't feel confident in a lot of them and yeah, so but yeah, I was I was pretty
- 54:37good at props last year, but they they do come back to bite you in the ass every once
- 54:44in a while.
- 54:45So but that's fucking way she goes.
- 54:53It's kind of the same way with like the NBA.
- 54:56Like January NBA is like for me at least.
- 55:00Well the NBA doesn't start till after Christmas.
- 55:04Everybody knows that.
- 55:06Right.
- 55:07So right around then is when is when I'll I'll kick it up with NBA.
- 55:14And normally the way that my brain thinks it is what happens.
- 55:21At least it did in 2019.
- 55:22I remember that.
- 55:24It was the hottest hottest time of my life.
- 55:26Four years four years ago.
- 55:29Yeah.
- 55:30Yeah, I was the hottest gambler in the world.
- 55:35Of course I remember that.
- 55:37January 2019.
- 55:38Can you blame it?
- 55:42You know what will.
- 55:44God damn it.
- 55:46You're just like what usually happens in my brain is what happens.
- 55:51At least that's what happened.
- 55:53Back in 2019.
- 55:55Yeah.
- 55:57Yeah.
- 55:59Well you know what will nobody can take that away from you.
- 56:02No I'm not trying to.
- 56:03It was just I wasn't expecting that to go that way.
- 56:07I'm not saying anybody any of us were trying to but it's just it's just will math again.
- 56:14It's just funny.
- 56:16Numbers don't lie.
- 56:17No.
- 56:18They can't lie.
- 56:19They don't have feelings.
- 56:20It's not how numbers work.
- 56:25They're like letters but numbers.
- 56:29Okay.
- 56:30Anyway.
- 56:31Where are you going with this?
- 56:32No thank you.
- 56:33No, just riffing.
- 56:36Okay.
- 56:38Let's see.
- 56:40I don't think we need to comment on the college football playoff I think enough has been
- 56:46said on that.
- 56:48You know we're in an NFL show but when it comes down to it you know whatever.
- 56:54I am betting every bowl game again this year.
- 56:57How many is that?
- 56:59Like 60.
- 57:00A lot.
- 57:02All right.
- 57:03I went I don't remember exactly what my record was last year but I remember going perfectly
- 57:08even like I went 500 and then with a push so as even as you could get some say that's
- 57:15harder than winning every bet.
- 57:18So I'm pretty excited.
- 57:19We're running out of time.
- 57:22Yeah let's wrap it up.
- 57:25So yeah that's going to be it for us.
- 57:29Check out the Trend Center app in the link in our description.
- 57:33With that link you get a two week free premium trial.
- 57:36The normal premium trial is three days.
- 57:41Super great app, super great for winning trends in sports get notified when your trends are
- 57:47active on any games.
- 57:49Yeah.
- 57:50It's a great way to consistently stack up wins.
- 57:56I've said it a couple of times on the pod but you know the end of the MLB season right
- 58:03before the playoffs I used it to triple my bankroll on one of my sportsbook apps.
- 58:08It was crazy.
- 58:10It was consistent.
- 58:12You know what you're going to get consistent wins.
- 58:14A few losses here and there but you know it's a trend.
- 58:18It's not a sure thing.
- 58:19It's a trend.
- 58:20So yeah that's going to be it for us.
- 58:24Follow us on everything.
- 58:25Link is in the description.
- 58:27Follow for BANAS Thursdays and Thursdays Sunday Parley.
- 58:33Is all dog Parley.
- 58:34Maybe he'll do one this week.
- 58:35Maybe he wasn't quite feeling it last week or the Thursday night game.
- 58:41I mean Thursday night was wild.
- 58:42It was crazy.
- 58:45Who can blame him.
- 58:46But yeah that's going to be it for us.
- 58:48Thank you so much for listening.
- 58:49Watching.
- 58:50Please like comment subscribe.
- 58:51It really helps us out.
- 58:52Anyway you interact with this really really helps us out.
- 58:55Tweet at us.
- 58:57Make fun of us.
- 58:58Do whatever.
- 58:59Doesn't matter.
- 59:00It really helps us out.
- 59:02Okay.
- 59:03I'm missing anything.
- 59:05Nope.
- 59:06Thank you covered it.
- 59:07Okay cool.
- 59:08Well that's going to be it.
- 59:12There's three of us.
- 59:13Now let's make some money.
- 59:14Sometimes business is money it's full.
- 59:32Let's make this two.
- 59:33Hey buddy were you looking for?
- 59:35Master!
- 59:36Master!
- 59:37Yes!
- 59:38Mister no.
- 59:39He does?!