Latest / Toadstool Sports / Sunday BEST BETS | Get Down | MLB | 7/26/26

Transcript

Sunday BEST BETS | Get Down | MLB | 7/26/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:17
  Speaker 1: You gotta slip in your palm and a hole in
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: your checks. Black coffee on the felt, man, you look
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: like a mess. Three teen Parlette turned the dust in
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: your head.
• 0:29
  Speaker 2: Now you stare at the chips.
• 0:31
  Speaker 3: Like they made you this man.
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: But don't you go quiet? Don't you fade from the floor.
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: Your name steal mean something on somebody for show? Put
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: the glass down, baby, look at me?
• 0:46
  Speaker 3: No, hold on, hold on nothing nice now, hold on,
• 1:00
  Speaker 3: hold on me, but it don't get the crown. Hold on,
• 1:16
  Speaker 3: hold on and stay with me.
• 1:19
  Speaker 2: Now, what's up? Everybody? It's towed back with you With
• 1:30
  Speaker 2: Toadstool Sports for Sunday, July twenty sixth, we went three
• 1:36
  Speaker 2: and oh on the show yesterday. I think we'reun What
• 1:39
  Speaker 2: is it like? A six and one run over the
• 1:41
  Speaker 2: last few days? Now, obviously I'll take that. We got
• 1:45
  Speaker 2: the win with the Washington Nationals in the first five yesterday.
• 1:48
  Speaker 2: They were losing two to nothing, and they immediately turned
• 1:51
  Speaker 2: it around and scored a bunch of runs. They scored
• 1:54
  Speaker 2: five runs, maybe all of them with two outs, although
• 1:57
  Speaker 2: I don't really want to remember what else happened yesterday,
• 2:00
  Speaker 2: all with two outs. But Washington was able to get
• 2:02
  Speaker 2: the win. After that, they won the full game as well,
• 2:05
  Speaker 2: I think five to three. After they were winning five
• 2:07
  Speaker 2: to two I believe at the end of five. So
• 2:10
  Speaker 2: either way, that was a winner. Baltimore was a win
• 2:14
  Speaker 2: in the first five as well. I think they were
• 2:16
  Speaker 2: up to one at that point. I want to say
• 2:19
  Speaker 2: it was close, but they had the upper hand. They
• 2:21
  Speaker 2: won the game as well by one, I think three
• 2:25
  Speaker 2: to two, and we got the under as well. With
• 2:28
  Speaker 2: Dodgers Mets, it got a little bit dicey, I guess
• 2:33
  Speaker 2: at the end because the Mets scored two runs in
• 2:35
  Speaker 2: the eighth innning. I mean maybe the Dodgers or Dodgers
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: should have left Yamamoto in longer. I don't know Yamamoto.
• 2:43
  Speaker 2: The thing about him is he goes deep into games. Man.
• 2:46
  Speaker 2: He's one of the few pitchers in the league that
• 2:49
  Speaker 2: still does that. It's like being back in old school
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: baseball again. Oh yeah, this guy's gonna go at least
• 2:56
  Speaker 2: seven innings every time he's out there, one hundred pitches
• 2:58
  Speaker 2: at least whatever. Dodgers' bullpen almost gave it up, but
• 3:03
  Speaker 2: that game still landed seven. So hopefully everybody got at
• 3:06
  Speaker 2: least seven and a half on that The total definitely
• 3:09
  Speaker 2: dropped on that one throughout the day, but hopefully everybody
• 3:11
  Speaker 2: got to it early enough that you at least got
• 3:14
  Speaker 2: seven and a half on that, so that was a
• 3:16
  Speaker 2: winner as well. It was four to one going into
• 3:19
  Speaker 2: the eighth inning, so I shouldn't have even been that close.
• 3:24
  Speaker 2: Whatever we move on to today, I'm gonna have three
• 3:27
  Speaker 2: baseball plays today as well. I like them. Hopefully we're
• 3:31
  Speaker 2: gonna get it done. People are probably not gonna love
• 3:34
  Speaker 2: some of my baseball opinions here. That's what I like
• 3:36
  Speaker 2: because when I go contrarian, that I think that's the
• 3:41
  Speaker 2: better way to go more often than not. Just go
• 3:44
  Speaker 2: against the public, man, because the books more often than
• 3:47
  Speaker 2: not kind of need the public to lose. It's not
• 3:50
  Speaker 2: like really a hard and fast rule, but I think
• 3:53
  Speaker 2: if you are if you have a tendency to go
• 3:56
  Speaker 2: against where the public is, I think that is better
• 3:59
  Speaker 2: more often than not. Dirty sock, what's up? Yes, thanks
• 4:04
  Speaker 2: for hanging out trying to bounce back here. I mean,
• 4:07
  Speaker 2: we had a peak on the season like a few
• 4:09
  Speaker 2: weeks ago, and we are not back there yet, so
• 4:13
  Speaker 2: we need to go on another heater here. But yeah,
• 4:14
  Speaker 2: let's go into baseball here. It's Sunday, so these series
• 4:19
  Speaker 2: are ending, so there's a lot of afternoon baseball here.
• 4:22
  Speaker 2: I don't have a play in the night game, so
• 4:25
  Speaker 2: it's it's gonna be all afternoon games for me here.
• 4:29
  Speaker 2: The first one up is included at twelve fifteen Eastern
• 4:33
  Speaker 2: on Peacock, so people can watch this game if they want.
• 4:36
  Speaker 2: I got to play in this one in Cleveland, Tampa.
• 4:44
  Speaker 2: This is gonna be under seven. And I know we're
• 4:48
  Speaker 2: looking at some low totals here, man, but these are
• 4:50
  Speaker 2: low for a reason. Get on that key number seven.
• 4:53
  Speaker 2: I'm pretty sure you can find it out there at
• 4:55
  Speaker 2: a decent price. I would go upwards of even like
• 4:58
  Speaker 2: minus one twenty to get in an underd seven, so
• 5:00
  Speaker 2: you can avoid the six and a half. But I
• 5:02
  Speaker 2: don't think you're gonna have to pay that much for this.
• 5:04
  Speaker 2: But I thought this was gonna be a play for
• 5:06
  Speaker 2: me just right away looking at the pitching matchup. But
• 5:09
  Speaker 2: I do dig into the actual matchup stats and stuff
• 5:13
  Speaker 2: to really kind of verify that that is what I
• 5:15
  Speaker 2: want to do here. And by the way, the market
• 5:18
  Speaker 2: read agrees with all three of my plays today as well,
• 5:20
  Speaker 2: so I like that as well. But yeah, I think
• 5:22
  Speaker 2: this is gonna be an under We have a good
• 5:24
  Speaker 2: starting pitching matchup here. I'm gonna leave the bullpens in,
• 5:28
  Speaker 2: even though I've said some maybe somewhat negative things about
• 5:31
  Speaker 2: Tampa's bullpen, but they're decently rested here. The use three
• 5:36
  Speaker 2: guys yesterday. I don't believe they used their closer yesterday.
• 5:39
  Speaker 2: So Tampa, by the way, they're on the version of
• 5:41
  Speaker 2: a sweep as well. Actually, maybe they did use their closer.
• 5:45
  Speaker 2: I don't even know who their closer is. But they've
• 5:47
  Speaker 2: won both games in the series here, so Cleveland might
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: have more motivation here. And it's certainly possible that Cleveland
• 5:52
  Speaker 2: could win this game today. So but I'm not looking
• 5:55
  Speaker 2: at the side here as much. But yes, Cleveland is
• 5:58
  Speaker 2: in one of those spots where they are key to
• 6:00
  Speaker 2: avoid a sweep, so they could have a little bit
• 6:02
  Speaker 2: of extra motivation here. Tampa plays Texas next after I
• 6:05
  Speaker 2: think they're off tomorrow. Then they play Texas. I don't
• 6:08
  Speaker 2: really know if that's gonna be a look ahead or not,
• 6:11
  Speaker 2: but Cleveland again may have more motivation here to avoid
• 6:14
  Speaker 2: the sweep, and looking at what the price is Cleveland
• 6:19
  Speaker 2: may be a possible way to look in this game, especially,
• 6:21
  Speaker 2: you think it's gonna be lower scoring, as I always saying,
• 6:24
  Speaker 2: you're gonna get Cleveland as a big underdog, and their
• 6:26
  Speaker 2: starting pitcher should be able to match up here. Cleveland
• 6:29
  Speaker 2: actually has the better bullpen as well, debatably at least,
• 6:32
  Speaker 2: so there are some some arguments for Cleveland here as well,
• 6:36
  Speaker 2: but of course I'm going with the under here Cleveland.
• 6:42
  Speaker 2: If this will load, I hate when this page does this.
• 6:44
  Speaker 2: Cleveland's bullpen is actually pretty clear right now. They only
• 6:47
  Speaker 2: use one guy yesterday, so Cleveland's bullpen is in good
• 6:50
  Speaker 2: shape here. Tampa Bay's bullpen is ranked fourth in baseball,
• 6:54
  Speaker 2: though I still don't really love their era, but I will.
• 6:57
  Speaker 2: I'm willing to leave them in in this underqu here
• 7:00
  Speaker 2: because they're gonna get the full game under a key
• 7:03
  Speaker 2: number here, and the starting pitching might get us a
• 7:06
  Speaker 2: little bit deeper into this game as well. Cleveland is
• 7:08
  Speaker 2: fifteenth than bullpen, but their era is not that bad,
• 7:12
  Speaker 2: so we leave the bullpens in here. Plus they're rested.
• 7:15
  Speaker 2: Tampa Bay they do hit well, they're sixth and they've
• 7:17
  Speaker 2: hit well at home this year, but I'm willing to
• 7:21
  Speaker 2: bank on them not scoring as many runs in this
• 7:23
  Speaker 2: game because of the pitching they have to face here.
• 7:25
  Speaker 2: Cleveland's offense has not been good basically all year. They're
• 7:28
  Speaker 2: twenty seventh, tied with the Mets and the Mariners right now,
• 7:31
  Speaker 2: So yeah, I'm willing to go against their offense here
• 7:34
  Speaker 2: for sure, But really it's about the pitching. We're gonna
• 7:37
  Speaker 2: back both pitchers here. Parker Messik is pitching for Cleveland.
• 7:41
  Speaker 2: He's probably their best pitcher, even though he's pretty young.
• 7:44
  Speaker 2: Two point six eighty R, one point zero five WHIP.
• 7:48
  Speaker 2: He's even better on the road two point three to
• 7:50
  Speaker 2: five roadierra with a below two hundred opponent batting average
• 7:54
  Speaker 2: on the road. Pitched in the All Star Game, which
• 7:57
  Speaker 2: is a little bit of a concern sometimes so these
• 7:59
  Speaker 2: young guys first time they pitch in the All Star Game.
• 8:01
  Speaker 2: He had no issue with that though. He came out
• 8:03
  Speaker 2: and pitch well again coming out of that, pitch well
• 8:06
  Speaker 2: against Minnesota, so he's continued to In fact, he pitched
• 8:09
  Speaker 2: better because he was having some walk issues leading into
• 8:13
  Speaker 2: the All Star Game. Didn't walk anybody against Minnesota though,
• 8:17
  Speaker 2: in five to two thirds, and he look at his
• 8:18
  Speaker 2: overall numbers, this is good low hit rate, walk rate,
• 8:22
  Speaker 2: pretty low as well. Strikeout rate is like right around
• 8:25
  Speaker 2: one per inning, which is still pretty good Against Tampa Bay.
• 8:29
  Speaker 2: He's been able to hold them down in forty two
• 8:32
  Speaker 2: career at bats twelve strikeouts, two walks, two fourteen average
• 8:35
  Speaker 2: allowed for eighty eight oh ps. So he has some
• 8:38
  Speaker 2: pretty good numbers here where I guess you could say
• 8:41
  Speaker 2: Tampa does not have good offensive numbers against him. So
• 8:44
  Speaker 2: that's a good sign. I believe he did face them
• 8:46
  Speaker 2: once this year. Yeah, he faced them at home, held
• 8:49
  Speaker 2: them to one run in five to two thirds innings
• 8:51
  Speaker 2: in that one. His numbers, his pitching line was good
• 8:54
  Speaker 2: in that game back in late April. And we're also
• 8:59
  Speaker 2: gonna back Drew Asmussen on the other side. Rasmussen was
• 9:02
  Speaker 2: starting to struggle a little bit, but he's still good dude,
• 9:04
  Speaker 2: three point two adra point nine to eight whip. Now,
• 9:08
  Speaker 2: one concern is going to be you gotta start worrying about,
• 9:11
  Speaker 2: like with Messick, not really with Rasmussen, but with Messik.
• 9:13
  Speaker 2: You gotta start worrying about the innings pitched count here
• 9:17
  Speaker 2: with these young guys. But I usually cap at like
• 9:21
  Speaker 2: about minus at about one hundred and fifty innings, I
• 9:24
  Speaker 2: start getting worried Messk is not there yet. He's at
• 9:26
  Speaker 2: one seventeen, so as we move on into the season,
• 9:29
  Speaker 2: we might just start worrying about these young guys reaching
• 9:32
  Speaker 2: a point where they're pitching more than they ever had before.
• 9:35
  Speaker 2: But with Rasmusen, I don't think it's gonna be an issue.
• 9:37
  Speaker 2: He's a veteran at this point three point two ADRA
• 9:40
  Speaker 2: for him, point nine to eight whip. He's been in
• 9:43
  Speaker 2: the cy Young discussion this year until recently he kind
• 9:46
  Speaker 2: of fell off a little bit. He's got a three
• 9:48
  Speaker 2: point five one ERA at home, so he's a little
• 9:51
  Speaker 2: bit worse at home, but that's still not bad. And
• 9:53
  Speaker 2: I was concerned about him going into the All Star
• 9:55
  Speaker 2: break because he had two bad starts leading into the
• 9:59
  Speaker 2: All Star break. He came out and he pitched well
• 10:01
  Speaker 2: against Toronto coming out of the All Star break. Toronto's
• 10:03
  Speaker 2: not good offensively, but still that's a good sign that
• 10:07
  Speaker 2: Rasfilssen was able to put together a good start get
• 10:10
  Speaker 2: back on track. And he's not facing a good offense
• 10:12
  Speaker 2: here either. He did face Cleveland once early in the season,
• 10:15
  Speaker 2: went five innings allowed touring runs. Back in that late
• 10:19
  Speaker 2: April series. He was fine in that start Raskilson's got
• 10:22
  Speaker 2: a low hit rate on the season, very low walk rate.
• 10:25
  Speaker 2: He barely walks anybody. His strikeout rate is also about
• 10:29
  Speaker 2: one per inning, really similar to Messic and he's facing
• 10:33
  Speaker 2: this Cleveland offense. They have really not done much against
• 10:36
  Speaker 2: him in fifty one at bats, one seventy six average,
• 10:38
  Speaker 2: four forty six ohps, fourteen to five strikeout walk ratio.
• 10:43
  Speaker 2: I mean that ratio is not great, but really the
• 10:46
  Speaker 2: numbers across the board are pretty solid. There so or
• 10:50
  Speaker 2: better than solid. I would say, so, yeah, we're gonna
• 10:52
  Speaker 2: take the under in this one. It is seven. It
• 10:55
  Speaker 2: is juice to the under at this point. A couple
• 10:57
  Speaker 2: of the books are probably gonna give you a little
• 10:59
  Speaker 2: bit of a beent number on this than some of
• 11:01
  Speaker 2: the other ones. But I would get this before it
• 11:02
  Speaker 2: falls to I would not want to go under six
• 11:05
  Speaker 2: and a half. Really here, uh, seventy one percent of
• 11:07
  Speaker 2: tickets on the over, sixty nine percent of the cash
• 11:10
  Speaker 2: and the over. So the money is agreeing with me,
• 11:13
  Speaker 2: and that the over is public unless the money is
• 11:16
  Speaker 2: on it. The money looks like it's slightly on Tampa,
• 11:18
  Speaker 2: but Tampa is public. Seventy nine percent of tickets eighty
• 11:22
  Speaker 2: four percent of the cash like minus one thirty. Like
• 11:25
  Speaker 2: I said, I would lean towards Cleveland in this one,
• 11:27
  Speaker 2: expecting it to be a closer game. You get the underdog,
• 11:30
  Speaker 2: you get debatably even the better starter, plus the better bullpen,
• 11:34
  Speaker 2: uh and the motivation trying to avoid the sweeps. So
• 11:37
  Speaker 2: under is my actual play in that game. Lean to
• 11:40
  Speaker 2: Cleveland as well, Jack, what's up? Yes, I agree with you, sir,
• 11:46
  Speaker 2: Thanks for checking out the show. All right, Arizona and Washington.
• 11:52
  Speaker 2: We got this one right yesterday with Washington with the
• 11:54
  Speaker 2: first five winner there they won on the full game
• 11:57
  Speaker 2: as well. These seems to split the series so far.
• 12:00
  Speaker 2: Red Sox, by the way, did make a trade with
• 12:03
  Speaker 2: Washington yesterday. They traded Connolly early for Curtis Mead. I
• 12:06
  Speaker 2: don't know what I think about that man, Mead. He's
• 12:09
  Speaker 2: hitting well this year. He's the third baseman, which means
• 12:11
  Speaker 2: the Red Sox are gonna have to move Durban probably
• 12:14
  Speaker 2: to second base.
• 12:17
  Speaker 3: Mead.
• 12:17
  Speaker 2: I mean, he was a guy that was like designated
• 12:19
  Speaker 2: for assignment when he was on the White Sox like
• 12:21
  Speaker 2: last year. So I don't know. This season looks like
• 12:24
  Speaker 2: a fluke for Mead. But he is a right handed bat.
• 12:27
  Speaker 2: He's got good numbers this year. He could probably take
• 12:30
  Speaker 2: advantage of Femway Park being pretty good for right handed hitters.
• 12:34
  Speaker 2: Hopefully it works out. I don't know. I mean, I
• 12:36
  Speaker 2: like Early, dude, I don't really love the Red Sox trading,
• 12:39
  Speaker 2: although I know the Red Sox have a lot of
• 12:41
  Speaker 2: left handed pitchers here, but I don't know. To me,
• 12:43
  Speaker 2: it seemed like maybe they could have gotten more for
• 12:46
  Speaker 2: him than this. We'll see what happens, but the Red
• 12:48
  Speaker 2: Sox are trying to make some deals to try to
• 12:50
  Speaker 2: win right now, you know, because Early would have been
• 12:53
  Speaker 2: one of the guys that would have kept for the
• 12:54
  Speaker 2: future if they were looking towards the future. So even
• 12:57
  Speaker 2: though he can pitch well right now too, although he
• 13:00
  Speaker 2: is also hurt right now, but whatever anyway, Arizona Washington here,
• 13:06
  Speaker 2: Washington does not have a good bullpen. Washington only used
• 13:09
  Speaker 2: two guys out of the bullpen yesterday, but their bullpen
• 13:12
  Speaker 2: is still not trustworthy. Arizona has the better bullpen. They
• 13:15
  Speaker 2: used two guys yesterday. They are fifth in bullpen here,
• 13:20
  Speaker 2: Era is still above four, but I don't think they're
• 13:23
  Speaker 2: a bad bullpen. Kind Of like what I said with
• 13:26
  Speaker 2: Tampa Bay, Washington is definitely a bad bullpen twenty six
• 13:31
  Speaker 2: and their ERA is over five, so very bad. Washington
• 13:34
  Speaker 2: is the better offense. They're ranked second in offense. Arizona
• 13:39
  Speaker 2: has moved up a little bit recently. Their twentieth tiede
• 13:41
  Speaker 2: with the Red Sox right now, so at least they
• 13:43
  Speaker 2: are hitting a little bit better. Arizona's gonna be going
• 13:46
  Speaker 2: with Cole Drake here, who I don't know what to
• 13:49
  Speaker 2: think about Drake. I mean, he's a very big guy,
• 13:52
  Speaker 2: a big left handed pitcher. The Red Sox probably should
• 13:56
  Speaker 2: have him if that's the case, but for whatever reason,
• 13:58
  Speaker 2: he doesn't throw that hard. Although he looked pretty good
• 14:01
  Speaker 2: in his major league debut. He said he's made one
• 14:03
  Speaker 2: start in Major League baseball so far. It was his
• 14:07
  Speaker 2: previous start five days ago against the A's, who are
• 14:11
  Speaker 2: a pretty good lineup, and he held them to one
• 14:12
  Speaker 2: run in five innings, four hits, two walks, five strikeouts.
• 14:16
  Speaker 2: That was a pretty good pitching line for his major
• 14:18
  Speaker 2: league debut. They let him go eighty five pitches. I
• 14:21
  Speaker 2: don't know how much we could take away from that.
• 14:23
  Speaker 2: I mean, he was better than I thought he would
• 14:24
  Speaker 2: be in that game, I'll tell you that. So maybe
• 14:27
  Speaker 2: he is better than I expected him to be, or
• 14:29
  Speaker 2: maybe he won't do as well here. It's very, very
• 14:32
  Speaker 2: unpredictable right now because I didn't really expect much from him.
• 14:35
  Speaker 2: His minor league numbers really didn't look good, so I
• 14:37
  Speaker 2: don't really know what we're going to get out of
• 14:40
  Speaker 2: him here. Washington, of course, has never faced it before.
• 14:43
  Speaker 2: It can be an advantage to the pitcher when they're
• 14:45
  Speaker 2: facing a lineup that hasn't seen them before. Miles Miekel
• 14:49
  Speaker 2: has suspicion for Washington. He is not great five point
• 14:53
  Speaker 2: six ERA, one point three to four whip. I mean
• 14:56
  Speaker 2: that whip kind of indicates his e RRAM, who should
• 14:58
  Speaker 2: be actually be a little bit lower than it is.
• 15:01
  Speaker 2: But he's got a high opponent batting average here. His
• 15:03
  Speaker 2: ERA at home is quite bad five point nine to two.
• 15:07
  Speaker 2: He's not trustworthy. Didn't pitch well last time out at
• 15:10
  Speaker 2: Course Field. He was actually somewhat decent against the Yankees
• 15:15
  Speaker 2: in the start before that, although he hasn't been striking
• 15:17
  Speaker 2: anybody out. He was bad in the prior to starts
• 15:20
  Speaker 2: against Houston against the Red Sox, although in that one
• 15:23
  Speaker 2: both of those starts they just let him go. Now,
• 15:25
  Speaker 2: what I will say is that with Washington, if you're
• 15:27
  Speaker 2: gonna play this game, I think you don't want to
• 15:30
  Speaker 2: pick a starter on the Washington side because they use
• 15:33
  Speaker 2: an opener in front of Micholas a lot, so you
• 15:35
  Speaker 2: might get like pooling starting the game or something like
• 15:38
  Speaker 2: that for Washington. So that's what I would say, if
• 15:41
  Speaker 2: you're gonna play this game, I would pick action on
• 15:44
  Speaker 2: the Washington side because Micholas is going to pitch. It's
• 15:47
  Speaker 2: just a matter of do they put an opener in
• 15:49
  Speaker 2: front of him or not. He's got a high hit rate.
• 15:51
  Speaker 2: His home run rate is high, that's pretty bad. His
• 15:54
  Speaker 2: walk rate isn't bad. He doesn't really walk guys, but
• 15:56
  Speaker 2: he doesn't strike guys out either. He just gets hit
• 15:59
  Speaker 2: a lot. His strike got rate is really low, so
• 16:02
  Speaker 2: he doesn't fool anybody. Arizona has decent numbers against them. Well,
• 16:06
  Speaker 2: they have a low batting average where they've hit him
• 16:08
  Speaker 2: for power fifty at bats two forty average, eight to
• 16:11
  Speaker 2: fifty five ops, although Ronado specifically does a ton of
• 16:16
  Speaker 2: that damage though, six for twelve with three home runs.
• 16:19
  Speaker 2: If you want to look for a player prop hits
• 16:20
  Speaker 2: pless one hits pless runs plus RBIs over Arnado might
• 16:24
  Speaker 2: be the way to look here. Seven to one strike
• 16:27
  Speaker 2: a walk ratio from Mikolas against Arizona. But even though
• 16:31
  Speaker 2: that's a good ratio, I mean, obviously the rest of
• 16:33
  Speaker 2: his numbers are a bit bad. And the oddsmakers think
• 16:37
  Speaker 2: this is going to be a high scoring game because
• 16:38
  Speaker 2: they put a ten and a half total out there
• 16:40
  Speaker 2: on this. I mean, maybe they're under selling Drake a
• 16:45
  Speaker 2: little bit. But the money is coming in on the over.
• 16:47
  Speaker 2: Seventy percent of the tickets on the under. I don't
• 16:51
  Speaker 2: really know that the public would come in and play
• 16:52
  Speaker 2: an under here, but I think did at least probably
• 16:55
  Speaker 2: shy away from playing an over with a total that high.
• 16:58
  Speaker 2: Seventy eight percent of tickets on the over, Arizona is
• 17:01
  Speaker 2: actually favored, which makes absolutely no sense to me. Is like, really,
• 17:07
  Speaker 2: is that how disrespected Micholas is in the market, Like
• 17:11
  Speaker 2: this total unknown who was pitching very poorly in triple
• 17:15
  Speaker 2: A Drake, like you're gonna make him a road favorite here? Yeah,
• 17:19
  Speaker 2: I don't really buy that. The money is back in
• 17:22
  Speaker 2: Washington here fifty seven percent of tickets on Arizona sixty
• 17:25
  Speaker 2: three percent of the cash in Washington I understand the
• 17:29
  Speaker 2: argument for it. It's just I don't understand how you
• 17:31
  Speaker 2: can make Arizona the favorite, even though I know they're overall,
• 17:34
  Speaker 2: that you could make the argument that the better team
• 17:37
  Speaker 2: overall maybe and with maybe the better pitcher here, I
• 17:42
  Speaker 2: don't know that you could really make that argument. But yeah,
• 17:45
  Speaker 2: I think Washington in the first five I guess could
• 17:49
  Speaker 2: be worth a look here. But I don't know. This
• 17:51
  Speaker 2: game is just it's really hard to predict. I think
• 17:53
  Speaker 2: if you're gonna play this game, I think probably the
• 17:55
  Speaker 2: over makes the most sense. But you're needing to go
• 17:58
  Speaker 2: over a huge total there, and we did not get
• 18:01
  Speaker 2: there with our other over in that series, so I'm
• 18:04
  Speaker 2: not gonna Actually, there's no way I'm gonna try to
• 18:06
  Speaker 2: touch that game, all right. Atlanta and Baltimore. I have
• 18:11
  Speaker 2: a stronger opinion on this game. We did get the
• 18:13
  Speaker 2: win with Baltimore yesterday. They won on They had to
• 18:16
  Speaker 2: have a walk off to get the win yesterday, but
• 18:18
  Speaker 2: they were winning at the end of five, so we
• 18:20
  Speaker 2: were able to get that bet correct on the show yesterday.
• 18:24
  Speaker 2: Teams have split the series, so both teams probably show
• 18:27
  Speaker 2: up to try to win this one. Atlanta has the
• 18:31
  Speaker 2: somewhat better bullpen. They used two guys out of the
• 18:33
  Speaker 2: bullpen yesterday, Baltimore used three. Baltimore's bullpen has been good recently.
• 18:39
  Speaker 2: They've moved up a bit. Baltimore is where are they at?
• 18:43
  Speaker 2: They're eighth now, even though their ERA is still above four.
• 18:46
  Speaker 2: They've been pitching pretty well recently out of the bullpen.
• 18:49
  Speaker 2: Atlanta's still ranked number one in whip, although they're third
• 18:53
  Speaker 2: in u RA behind the Red Sox and the Yankees.
• 18:57
  Speaker 2: Atlanta is eighth in in offense. They've had the better
• 19:01
  Speaker 2: offense here Baltimore seventeenth. Atlanta's going with Ronaldo Lopez. I'm
• 19:06
  Speaker 2: not really sure that this guy's that trustworthy man. I mean,
• 19:09
  Speaker 2: he's up there in age. I know his ZRA looks
• 19:12
  Speaker 2: pretty good three point nine to five, but a lot
• 19:14
  Speaker 2: of that was him pitching out of the bullpen. This year.
• 19:17
  Speaker 2: He's got a one point three to six whip, which
• 19:19
  Speaker 2: is not that good. Indicatese his era should probably be
• 19:22
  Speaker 2: about a run higher than it is. He's been a
• 19:25
  Speaker 2: bit worse on the road four point two to one.
• 19:27
  Speaker 2: Roady Ira. He rejoined the starting rotation recently and he
• 19:31
  Speaker 2: was pitching okay, but his last two starts have not
• 19:34
  Speaker 2: really been very good. He's not really going deep into
• 19:37
  Speaker 2: these outings. Atlanta's lost his last three starts, and he's
• 19:39
  Speaker 2: not facing good offense this year at all. Saint Louis twice,
• 19:43
  Speaker 2: Mets won San Diego once. That doesn't inspire a lot
• 19:47
  Speaker 2: of confidence in him for me here, and he's going
• 19:51
  Speaker 2: up against Baltimore now, who is a better offense than
• 19:53
  Speaker 2: all of those teams. Lopez against Baltimore has not been
• 19:57
  Speaker 2: good in twenty at bats. It's not too many at bats,
• 19:59
  Speaker 2: but they three hundred average against an eight to fourteen
• 20:02
  Speaker 2: OPS eight to two strike out walk ratio. So I
• 20:06
  Speaker 2: would I would not want to back Lopez here, and
• 20:08
  Speaker 2: in fact, I would lean towards backing the Orioles in
• 20:11
  Speaker 2: this game. Shane Boz is pitching for them. He's not
• 20:15
  Speaker 2: really that bad. He's got a four point zero five
• 20:17
  Speaker 2: ERA one point three to seven whips, so his whip
• 20:20
  Speaker 2: is similar to lopez is, although Boz has the ERA
• 20:25
  Speaker 2: that looks a little bit worse. Boz doesn't really have
• 20:27
  Speaker 2: significant splits here home in a way AE those home
• 20:31
  Speaker 2: opponent batting average is higher, though, so he is worse
• 20:33
  Speaker 2: at home generally, but he's been pitching pretty well recently.
• 20:37
  Speaker 2: He hasn't walked anybody in his last two outings after
• 20:40
  Speaker 2: he had some walk issues for a little while. But
• 20:41
  Speaker 2: he's been pretty decent for the last month plus at
• 20:45
  Speaker 2: this point, so he is pitching better here, Boz. His
• 20:49
  Speaker 2: hit rate is still a little bit too high. His
• 20:51
  Speaker 2: walk rate is okay. He probably I would want to
• 20:55
  Speaker 2: get that a little bit further down. His strike out
• 20:57
  Speaker 2: rate is also okay, So again, he's got some mediocre
• 21:01
  Speaker 2: numbers here. Like it's not bad. And against Atlanta, they
• 21:04
  Speaker 2: really haven't seen much of them. They have three guys
• 21:06
  Speaker 2: who have faced them fourteen at bats and they have
• 21:09
  Speaker 2: a one forty three average, two eighty six ohps, four strikeouts,
• 21:12
  Speaker 2: no walks against them, no extra base hits either. So
• 21:15
  Speaker 2: Atlanta in the small sample size, they have not been
• 21:18
  Speaker 2: able to do much against Boz. I like Baltimore in
• 21:22
  Speaker 2: this one. I think they have the starting pitching edge
• 21:24
  Speaker 2: here probably, you know, they probably don't have the bullpen edge,
• 21:28
  Speaker 2: even though their bullpen has been better recently. I would
• 21:31
  Speaker 2: take Baltimore in the first five if I was gonna
• 21:33
  Speaker 2: play this one. This would not be the last game
• 21:36
  Speaker 2: on my list by any means. This one was a
• 21:37
  Speaker 2: consideration for me, and the money is agreeing with me
• 21:41
  Speaker 2: on this. Sixty percent of the tickets are on Atlanta
• 21:43
  Speaker 2: fifty three percent of the cash, so the money is
• 21:47
  Speaker 2: backing Baltimore, you know, more of the high ticket percentages
• 21:51
  Speaker 2: on Atlanta with less of the money on them. And
• 21:53
  Speaker 2: Baltimore is a slight favorite here. It's like a pick
• 21:55
  Speaker 2: em price, so it looks way too easy to play
• 21:58
  Speaker 2: the Braves, right. The public is going to come in
• 22:00
  Speaker 2: and play the better record, which is the Braves. That's
• 22:04
  Speaker 2: not what I would do here in this one. The
• 22:05
  Speaker 2: money's backing the over eight and a half as well
• 22:08
  Speaker 2: or nine, for whatever that's worth. I don't really have
• 22:11
  Speaker 2: a great feel for the total there, but I like
• 22:14
  Speaker 2: Baltimore in the first five. I wouldn't really disagree with
• 22:17
  Speaker 2: going full game on them either, because I think their
• 22:19
  Speaker 2: bullpen can at least kind of match Atlanta's. But I
• 22:24
  Speaker 2: think the biggest advantage you have is actually the starting
• 22:26
  Speaker 2: pitching in that one. So I would back Boz and
• 22:29
  Speaker 2: Baltimore in the first five, and that one if I
• 22:31
  Speaker 2: was gonna play it, and it was close to making
• 22:33
  Speaker 2: the cut for me, that was one of the last
• 22:35
  Speaker 2: ones on my list. It made my short list today.
• 22:40
  Speaker 2: All right, Cubs in Pittsburgh, this is going to be
• 22:42
  Speaker 2: a play for me. This one pretty much lines up
• 22:50
  Speaker 2: for me, although you do have to pay a little
• 22:52
  Speaker 2: bit of a price for it. You're gonna have to
• 22:53
  Speaker 2: lay a run line with this. We're gonna take Pittsburgh
• 22:55
  Speaker 2: in the first five innings minus the half run at
• 22:58
  Speaker 2: minus one oh five here to get the price down
• 23:00
  Speaker 2: the money lines, like minus one fifty in the first
• 23:03
  Speaker 2: five If you want to do that, obviously, I wouldn't
• 23:06
  Speaker 2: disagree with it. I mean, if you want to go
• 23:07
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh full game and get the price down to like
• 23:10
  Speaker 2: minus one thirty on the money line, you could do that.
• 23:12
  Speaker 2: But I worry about their bullpens, so I'm gonna stick
• 23:15
  Speaker 2: to just the starting pitching here. But I do also
• 23:17
  Speaker 2: like the motivational standpoint here. Pittsburgh's lost three in a
• 23:21
  Speaker 2: row and they're about to get swept out of the series,
• 23:23
  Speaker 2: so I think they're gonna have extra motivation here. You're
• 23:26
  Speaker 2: looking at a home team trying to avoid a sweep,
• 23:28
  Speaker 2: which is usually a motivated spot here, and it's even
• 23:31
  Speaker 2: more motivational because they lost eleven and nothing yesterday with
• 23:34
  Speaker 2: Paul Skeens on the mound. By the way, Skeens I
• 23:37
  Speaker 2: think allowed five runs in five or six innings yesterday,
• 23:40
  Speaker 2: so it was not his best start. As I pointed
• 23:42
  Speaker 2: out yesterday, the Cubs actually do okay against Skeens. But
• 23:45
  Speaker 2: now that that happened in Pittsburgh lost that game with
• 23:48
  Speaker 2: Skiens on the mounta and they lost miserably eleven and nothing.
• 23:51
  Speaker 2: When you get a home team that gets embarrassed like
• 23:53
  Speaker 2: that at home and they get shut out, I think
• 23:57
  Speaker 2: you want to look towards that team to bounce back
• 23:59
  Speaker 2: in the next game, because that is just an embarrassing loss.
• 24:01
  Speaker 2: And meanwhile, the Cubs maybe they start looking ahead. They're
• 24:04
  Speaker 2: playing Saint Louis next. I don't know if that's that
• 24:06
  Speaker 2: big of a deal. Saint Louis is probably ahead of Yeah,
• 24:10
  Speaker 2: they're ahead of Pittsburgh in the standings barely, so maybe
• 24:14
  Speaker 2: that is a series that maybe Chicago will be looking
• 24:17
  Speaker 2: ahead to a little bit there. They've already won this series,
• 24:20
  Speaker 2: so I think you're gonna get extra motivation for Pittsburgh here,
• 24:23
  Speaker 2: and I like the starting pitching to be in Pittsburgh's
• 24:26
  Speaker 2: favor in this one as well. The bullpen I don't
• 24:29
  Speaker 2: like Pittsburgh's bullpen, so I'm gonna avoid them. They use
• 24:32
  Speaker 2: three guys out of the bullpen yesterday, Cubs only use one,
• 24:35
  Speaker 2: and it was Javi or Asad, who's not really one
• 24:39
  Speaker 2: of their high leverage, our relief arms. He's a kind
• 24:42
  Speaker 2: of a spot starter type of guy. The Cubs have
• 24:45
  Speaker 2: the better bullpen and they're more rested. They're AINK fourteenth
• 24:48
  Speaker 2: right now. Pittsburgh is twenty fourth, so we'll avoid Pittsburgh's
• 24:52
  Speaker 2: bullpen here. Both teams have done well offensively, Pittsburgh three,
• 24:56
  Speaker 2: Chicago four. Pittsburgh usually hits pretty well at home man
• 25:00
  Speaker 2: and yesterday that was not the case. But I expect
• 25:03
  Speaker 2: them to bounce back with some runs here because they
• 25:05
  Speaker 2: get to face Jameson tie On, who has not been
• 25:08
  Speaker 2: that good. He's had some injuries this year. I do
• 25:10
  Speaker 2: think he's better than his numbers suggests right now, but
• 25:13
  Speaker 2: he's not great either. Five point three to eighty array,
• 25:16
  Speaker 2: one point three to two whip. He's got a six
• 25:19
  Speaker 2: point two to one Roadie Ray. So he struggled on
• 25:21
  Speaker 2: the road so far this year, and he hasn't been
• 25:23
  Speaker 2: good recently either. He just came back from injury so
• 25:27
  Speaker 2: maybe you give him a little bit of a pass.
• 25:28
  Speaker 2: He wasn't good at home against Detroit, but maybe because
• 25:32
  Speaker 2: it was his first start back from injury to give
• 25:34
  Speaker 2: him a pass. But I usually like veterans like him
• 25:37
  Speaker 2: when they come back from injury because usually they're ready
• 25:40
  Speaker 2: to go. But that was not really the case with him.
• 25:42
  Speaker 2: He struggled through that outing. He may struggle again here.
• 25:46
  Speaker 2: And he pitched here in Pittsburgh back in late May,
• 25:49
  Speaker 2: and he was not great in that start, even though
• 25:51
  Speaker 2: the Cubs actually did win the game. They scored a
• 25:53
  Speaker 2: lot of runs behind him, but his start wasn't particularly
• 25:56
  Speaker 2: good there. And he did pitch against Pittsburgh at home
• 25:59
  Speaker 2: earlier this year and he gave up a lot of
• 26:01
  Speaker 2: runs in that start too, although he had a lot
• 26:03
  Speaker 2: of strikeouts. He got a little bit unlucky in that one,
• 26:05
  Speaker 2: but he still wasn't great. And his overall numbers against
• 26:08
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh are not particularly good. They have one hundred and
• 26:11
  Speaker 2: fourteen at bats against them, so they're very familiar with them.
• 26:14
  Speaker 2: Two ninety eight batting average, eight twenty three ops, fourteen
• 26:17
  Speaker 2: to nine strikeout walk ratio, So these are all numbers
• 26:20
  Speaker 2: that favor the Pittsburgh offense over tie on here and
• 26:24
  Speaker 2: we're gonna back Braxton Ashcraft, and you know, I like him,
• 26:27
  Speaker 2: and we did lose in his last start, which was
• 26:30
  Speaker 2: against the Yankees, but I think he's gonna have an
• 26:31
  Speaker 2: easier time in this game here at home against the Cubs,
• 26:35
  Speaker 2: and he's been good, dude. Three point nine to five RRA,
• 26:38
  Speaker 2: one point one to seven WHIP. I think he's a
• 26:40
  Speaker 2: solid pitcher here. He's better at home as well, three
• 26:43
  Speaker 2: point six to eight homey RA. Like I said, he
• 26:46
  Speaker 2: wasn't good last time out against the Yankees. It was
• 26:48
  Speaker 2: a difficult assignment in the Bronx. We did lose on
• 26:51
  Speaker 2: the show. With that game, I thought it was gonna
• 26:53
  Speaker 2: be a good spot for Pittsburgh, which I know I
• 26:55
  Speaker 2: think this one is as well. That was after the
• 26:58
  Speaker 2: Yankees have played a double header, and I thought we
• 27:00
  Speaker 2: had the pitching edge there. It didn't work out. He's
• 27:03
  Speaker 2: had a couple of kind of questionable starts in a row,
• 27:05
  Speaker 2: but if you look at this one against Milwaukee, and
• 27:07
  Speaker 2: even though wen two starts prior to that against Philly,
• 27:10
  Speaker 2: he got unlucky in those two starts too. He had
• 27:12
  Speaker 2: fourteen strikeouts and three walks across those two starts, just
• 27:17
  Speaker 2: a lot of runs came home against him because he
• 27:18
  Speaker 2: started allowing a bunch of home runs. But I think
• 27:21
  Speaker 2: he's gonna be able to kind of settle in and
• 27:23
  Speaker 2: get this under control. Another one of those starts was
• 27:26
  Speaker 2: on the road there. He's back at home now. I
• 27:28
  Speaker 2: think he's going to bounce back and pitch better here.
• 27:31
  Speaker 2: He's not really at that innings pitch threshold yet where
• 27:34
  Speaker 2: you really have to worry. He's got a low hit rate,
• 27:36
  Speaker 2: low walk rate, high strikeout rate. All of his numbers
• 27:39
  Speaker 2: are good across the board here and against the Cubs,
• 27:42
  Speaker 2: he's been pretty good in sixty eight at bats. Their
• 27:46
  Speaker 2: batting average against him is okay, two sixty five, but
• 27:48
  Speaker 2: he told him to a six to ninety three oh ps,
• 27:51
  Speaker 2: so they have not really been able to hit him
• 27:52
  Speaker 2: for power. Nineteen strikeouts, three walks, so a really good
• 27:56
  Speaker 2: command ratio against them as well. I think he's the
• 27:59
  Speaker 2: better pitcher. Plus, we're getting the motivated team here, and
• 28:04
  Speaker 2: the market is agreeing with me on this pretty strongly.
• 28:07
  Speaker 2: We're gonna take Pittsburgh here, but the way to do
• 28:09
  Speaker 2: it is to avoid the bullpen. You do have to
• 28:11
  Speaker 2: pay more for it, but we're gonna bank on Pittsburgh
• 28:14
  Speaker 2: to be winning at the end of the first five here.
• 28:16
  Speaker 2: I think they could do that. I think they're gonna
• 28:18
  Speaker 2: get some offense in this one. And the money again
• 28:21
  Speaker 2: seems to agree with the Pittsburgh side in general here,
• 28:24
  Speaker 2: fifty to fifty on the tickets, eighty four percent of
• 28:26
  Speaker 2: the cash on Pittsburgh though, So that's what we're gonna do.
• 28:29
  Speaker 2: And the money is also backing the over eight and
• 28:32
  Speaker 2: a half year nine, which I'm fine with that. I mean,
• 28:36
  Speaker 2: if the if the market is gonna tell you that's
• 28:38
  Speaker 2: gonna be a high score, a higher scoring game, that
• 28:40
  Speaker 2: makes it easier for the home team to cover any
• 28:44
  Speaker 2: sort of run line like that, if there're gonna be
• 28:45
  Speaker 2: more runs. So I'm fine with that being the case.
• 28:49
  Speaker 2: Let's go with Pittsburgh on the run line there, all right.
• 28:53
  Speaker 2: Toronto and Boston, the Red Sox lost yesterday. This is
• 28:57
  Speaker 2: what I was referring to at the beginning of the show,
• 28:59
  Speaker 2: the two out runs. Sonny Gray was pitching a shutout
• 29:03
  Speaker 2: into the fifth inning and then he couldn't get out
• 29:05
  Speaker 2: of the inning. Toronto scored five runs in that inning
• 29:07
  Speaker 2: with two outs, Just absolutely ridiculous. Gray just could not
• 29:11
  Speaker 2: get out of the inning and then nothing else happened.
• 29:14
  Speaker 2: Red Sox couldn't score at all. They had to face
• 29:16
  Speaker 2: Cease yesterday. Though it could be a bounce back here
• 29:20
  Speaker 2: because the Red Sox, of course, whoever wins this game
• 29:22
  Speaker 2: is gonna win the series. The Red Sox have been
• 29:24
  Speaker 2: bad against Toronto this year, though, they're like one in
• 29:27
  Speaker 2: five or something against Toronto this year, one and six
• 29:30
  Speaker 2: whatever it is, but or actually it might be one
• 29:33
  Speaker 2: and seven now, whatever it is. But what I will
• 29:37
  Speaker 2: say though, is the Red Sox were not playing good
• 29:39
  Speaker 2: baseball earlier in the season. They're playing better now. This
• 29:43
  Speaker 2: could be a bounce back for them off of getting
• 29:45
  Speaker 2: shut out at home, and they're not gonna have to
• 29:46
  Speaker 2: face doilln't Cease again here, So I am kind of
• 29:49
  Speaker 2: leaning towards the Red Sox in this game. Here. I
• 29:52
  Speaker 2: think they will have a bullpen advantage here. The Red
• 29:54
  Speaker 2: Sox only use Gimboa out of the bullpen, so all
• 29:57
  Speaker 2: their better relievers got a rest, yes, and they have
• 30:01
  Speaker 2: the better bullpen in general a though Toronto's isn't bad.
• 30:03
  Speaker 2: Toronto did rest everybody, so I think Don't Cease might
• 30:06
  Speaker 2: have gone the complete game yesterday, but I still prefer
• 30:09
  Speaker 2: the Red Sox bullpen. I mean, you got two almost
• 30:12
  Speaker 2: completely arrested bullpens here. The Red Sox are number two
• 30:15
  Speaker 2: in both Whip Andy ray E Ray They're behind the
• 30:19
  Speaker 2: Yankees and Whip they're behind the Braves. Toronto thirteenth not
• 30:23
  Speaker 2: a bad bullpen, but not as good as the Red Sox.
• 30:25
  Speaker 2: Red Sox offense is also a bit better other twentieth,
• 30:29
  Speaker 2: like I said, tied with Arizona. Toronto's dead last till thirtieth,
• 30:32
  Speaker 2: so they've definitely struggled offensively. We're looking at Kevin Gausman
• 30:37
  Speaker 2: pitching for Toronto. He's struggled recently. Man, he's not really
• 30:40
  Speaker 2: in the greatest of form right now. Hisray is up
• 30:43
  Speaker 2: to four point five to one, although it probably shouldn't
• 30:45
  Speaker 2: be that high. I mean, we know that he's a
• 30:47
  Speaker 2: decent pitcher. He's not getting run support either from this
• 30:51
  Speaker 2: bad offense. One point to eight whip that's a bit high,
• 30:55
  Speaker 2: higher than you usually would get from him, So he
• 30:58
  Speaker 2: is having some issues of those years should probably be
• 31:01
  Speaker 2: a little bit lower than it is. But he's struggled
• 31:03
  Speaker 2: on the road five point four to four road era,
• 31:05
  Speaker 2: so he's not good on the road. He hasn't been
• 31:08
  Speaker 2: good this month. He's got a six point seven to
• 31:10
  Speaker 2: five ERA this month, seventeen to ten strike out walk ratio.
• 31:13
  Speaker 2: None of these numbers are good. And he faced San
• 31:16
  Speaker 2: Francisco and San Diego on the road. Those are not
• 31:19
  Speaker 2: good offenses in my opinion, and those are pitcher friendly ballparks.
• 31:23
  Speaker 2: Wasn't great in those two stars. His walk rates gone up.
• 31:26
  Speaker 2: Like I said, Toronto's lost seven starts in a row
• 31:29
  Speaker 2: of his Yeah, I mean, things are not really going
• 31:33
  Speaker 2: well for Gusman right now. Man, and against the Red Sox,
• 31:36
  Speaker 2: he struggles. He's got ninety one at bats against him.
• 31:38
  Speaker 2: They have a two ninety seven average eight fifty four
• 31:41
  Speaker 2: ohps against them, although they do have twenty four strikeouts
• 31:44
  Speaker 2: in one walk, so he has a really good command
• 31:46
  Speaker 2: ratio against him. But they've been able to hit him
• 31:49
  Speaker 2: pretty well. Jaron Durant hits him well. Wilson Contreras, Yoshida
• 31:53
  Speaker 2: actually does a ton of damage against him. Those three
• 31:56
  Speaker 2: guys do a lot of damage against him. So they
• 31:59
  Speaker 2: need to all be in the line up here, Man,
• 32:00
  Speaker 2: Red Sox, he just stacked their lineup with lefties today.
• 32:04
  Speaker 2: That might be what they're gonna do here and the
• 32:06
  Speaker 2: Red Sox will finally get ron Your Suarez back here.
• 32:10
  Speaker 2: He was supposed to come back a few days ago,
• 32:12
  Speaker 2: but it looks like he was sick or something, so
• 32:15
  Speaker 2: his start his return was delayed for that reason. Suarez
• 32:19
  Speaker 2: has had a good season though, and of course the
• 32:21
  Speaker 2: Red Sox were anticipating this one. They traded early because
• 32:24
  Speaker 2: they kind of knew they were going to get one
• 32:26
  Speaker 2: of their lefties back, which is Suarez. A three point
• 32:29
  Speaker 2: one five ERA, one point one to six whip good
• 32:32
  Speaker 2: numbers here on the season. He is a little bit
• 32:34
  Speaker 2: worse at home three point eight six homye RA, which
• 32:37
  Speaker 2: is still not bad. He did struggle his last time
• 32:39
  Speaker 2: out against Anaheim, but his command numbers were still really
• 32:42
  Speaker 2: good in that one. And you look at his overall numbers,
• 32:45
  Speaker 2: he's got a low hit rate, pretty low walk rate here,
• 32:47
  Speaker 2: high strike gout rates. He's been good this season and
• 32:52
  Speaker 2: really the last couple of seasons he's been good. And
• 32:54
  Speaker 2: he also does have really good numbers against Toronto. In
• 32:56
  Speaker 2: forty three at bats, they have no extra base hits,
• 32:59
  Speaker 2: one sixteen average, two ninety ops, ten to three strikeout
• 33:03
  Speaker 2: walk ratio. So Suarez i think he should do well here.
• 33:06
  Speaker 2: And you know, as I've been saying, I like to
• 33:08
  Speaker 2: back veteran pitchers that are coming back from the injured
• 33:11
  Speaker 2: list because a lot of times they get pumped up.
• 33:14
  Speaker 2: A lot of times the team rallies behind them. Red
• 33:17
  Speaker 2: Sox might rally after the embarrassing shutout loss yesterday. I
• 33:21
  Speaker 2: like the Red Sox in this one. That's the way
• 33:22
  Speaker 2: I would lean. It's not gonna make the cut for
• 33:24
  Speaker 2: me or anything. Gaussman, by the way, just for posterity
• 33:28
  Speaker 2: or whatever. He's got a decent hit rate here, his
• 33:31
  Speaker 2: walk rate's pretty low and his strikeout rate is fairly high,
• 33:34
  Speaker 2: so his numbers overall are not too bad. But I
• 33:38
  Speaker 2: prefer the Red Sox situationally here. I think their bullpen
• 33:41
  Speaker 2: is better and I think they have the better starter here,
• 33:43
  Speaker 2: So that's the way I would go. They're at about
• 33:46
  Speaker 2: minus one thirty something here, up to about minus one
• 33:49
  Speaker 2: forty eighty four percent of tickets eighty seven percent of
• 33:52
  Speaker 2: the cash, So the Red Sox are public, which was
• 33:54
  Speaker 2: warning me a little bit, but at least like maybe
• 33:56
  Speaker 2: the money is kind of coming in on their side too.
• 33:58
  Speaker 2: A little bit hard to predict or hard to figure
• 34:02
  Speaker 2: out what's going on with those percentages there. The total
• 34:06
  Speaker 2: is low at seven and a half, so the oddsmakers
• 34:08
  Speaker 2: kind of expecting it to be a pitching duel. Money
• 34:11
  Speaker 2: looks like it's kind of backing the over along with
• 34:13
  Speaker 2: the public though. I don't have a good feel for
• 34:15
  Speaker 2: the side though, because it's one of those situations where
• 34:17
  Speaker 2: I like one pitcher and not the other. So although
• 34:21
  Speaker 2: generally I would say that these are two good starters
• 34:23
  Speaker 2: in general, so you know, in that way, maybe an
• 34:27
  Speaker 2: underkind of makes some sense. But again, I would prefer
• 34:30
  Speaker 2: playing the Red Sox on the side if I was
• 34:32
  Speaker 2: gonna play that one. Kansas City at Detroit. Kansas City
• 34:36
  Speaker 2: was able to get the win yesterday. Every game in
• 34:39
  Speaker 2: the series has been low scoring and has been decided
• 34:41
  Speaker 2: by one run. This has been a competitive series. Kansas
• 34:44
  Speaker 2: City's played I think six straight one run games, which
• 34:49
  Speaker 2: is pretty ridiculous. Detroit's winning the series two games to one.
• 34:53
  Speaker 2: Here They're probably gonna show up after losing yesterday. They
• 34:56
  Speaker 2: don't want to split the series at home with the
• 34:59
  Speaker 2: awful rule. Detroit used three relief pitchers yesterday. They're the
• 35:03
  Speaker 2: better bullpen. Kansas City only used two, but Kansas City
• 35:06
  Speaker 2: is ranked dead last and bullpen whip, they have the
• 35:09
  Speaker 2: second worst RA to the A's They're very bad. Detroit
• 35:13
  Speaker 2: is seventeenth. They're a decent bullpen. Both offenses have been
• 35:18
  Speaker 2: not terrific. Kansas City eighteenth, Detroit nineteenth. These offenses have
• 35:23
  Speaker 2: struggled in this series and Kansas City has not been
• 35:27
  Speaker 2: a good offense on the road. Kansas City is going
• 35:29
  Speaker 2: with luindra Vila here. I think he's better than his
• 35:33
  Speaker 2: numbers make him look, even though his whip is pretty
• 35:35
  Speaker 2: bad one point five to six four point eighty six
• 35:38
  Speaker 2: e array is not great either, and the whip actually
• 35:40
  Speaker 2: does indicate that ERA should be higher. But he's had
• 35:43
  Speaker 2: a couple of bad ownings and he has some really
• 35:45
  Speaker 2: good ones too. He's really young, and I think he
• 35:48
  Speaker 2: might be better than people think he is, as I
• 35:50
  Speaker 2: keep saying. And he's also been way better on the
• 35:53
  Speaker 2: road for whatever reason. Three era on the road, and
• 35:55
  Speaker 2: I know Kansas City Stadium has kind of become a
• 35:58
  Speaker 2: more hitter friendly stadiums the walls in but a villa. Yeah,
• 36:02
  Speaker 2: he's actually pitching fairly well recently. His last few starts
• 36:06
  Speaker 2: have been pretty good, Like he's been good in the
• 36:07
  Speaker 2: month of July, and believe it or not, the Royals
• 36:10
  Speaker 2: have won five of his last six games, and they've
• 36:13
  Speaker 2: won seven of his last nine. So and one of those,
• 36:18
  Speaker 2: both of those outings they lost was well, actually one
• 36:20
  Speaker 2: of them was really bad, the other one he wasn't.
• 36:22
  Speaker 2: But the Royals are winning with him on the mound
• 36:24
  Speaker 2: right now, which is ridiculous. His hit rate is very average,
• 36:28
  Speaker 2: it's one per inning. Strike gout rate is decent. His
• 36:31
  Speaker 2: walk rate it's too high though, that's been his main
• 36:33
  Speaker 2: issue is the walks. But again, when you're a young
• 36:36
  Speaker 2: guy like that, I think that is correctable, like fixing
• 36:39
  Speaker 2: your wildness issues. So I think a Villa better than
• 36:43
  Speaker 2: we think that he is at the very least. And
• 36:44
  Speaker 2: Detroit hasn't really seen him. They've four guys who have
• 36:47
  Speaker 2: faced him, one for four is what they are against them.
• 36:51
  Speaker 2: Vir Ling has the only hit, which is a double.
• 36:53
  Speaker 2: They have a strikeout, no walks, So do with that
• 36:56
  Speaker 2: info what you want. But a Villa is pretty unfamiliar
• 36:59
  Speaker 2: to Detroit here, and Detroit's gonna be going with fromber Valdez,
• 37:03
  Speaker 2: who is definitely on my shit list right now. Valdez
• 37:07
  Speaker 2: not having the greatest season here four point five to
• 37:09
  Speaker 2: seven e RA one point three eight whip. He is
• 37:11
  Speaker 2: better at home though, four point one to four home
• 37:14
  Speaker 2: the RA. We tried to back him on the road
• 37:16
  Speaker 2: last time because he had good numbers against the Cubs
• 37:18
  Speaker 2: and he was horrific in that start. I don't even
• 37:21
  Speaker 2: know what that was. He was good in the previous
• 37:24
  Speaker 2: start and maybe he will bounce back. But there are
• 37:26
  Speaker 2: some red flags here. Two of his last three starts
• 37:28
  Speaker 2: have been bad. But if he's gonna alternate good and
• 37:32
  Speaker 2: bad starts, he should be good here. So we will
• 37:34
  Speaker 2: say he's back at home, where he is better over
• 37:38
  Speaker 2: the course of the season. His hit rate is too high,
• 37:40
  Speaker 2: his walk rate is okay, his strikeout rate is low.
• 37:43
  Speaker 2: His strikeout potential seems to have gone down a little bit,
• 37:45
  Speaker 2: though he is inducing a lot of ground balls, which
• 37:48
  Speaker 2: usually does mean you're gonna get outs. You just have
• 37:50
  Speaker 2: to have good infielders behind you. He's been good against
• 37:54
  Speaker 2: the Royals, though they have seventy two at bats against him,
• 37:57
  Speaker 2: one ninety four average, five point thirty two oh ps,
• 37:59
  Speaker 2: twenty one to three strikeout walk ratio, so Valdez has
• 38:02
  Speaker 2: kind of dominated the Royals when he's faced them, and
• 38:05
  Speaker 2: I think he has faced them once this year and
• 38:07
  Speaker 2: he was good in that outing. I mean, it might
• 38:10
  Speaker 2: sound a little bit crazy, but I think maybe the
• 38:12
  Speaker 2: first five under might be the way to play this game.
• 38:15
  Speaker 2: I think both starters might actually do better than you think.
• 38:18
  Speaker 2: But the totals high. It's at nine or nine and
• 38:21
  Speaker 2: a half, so the odds makers are not really expecting
• 38:23
  Speaker 2: it to be low scoring. The money is backing the over.
• 38:26
  Speaker 2: We have sixty eight percent of tickets on the under,
• 38:28
  Speaker 2: sixty nine percent of the cash on the over. Really
• 38:31
  Speaker 2: not something I want to touch, but I think if
• 38:33
  Speaker 2: I had a lean in that game at all, it
• 38:34
  Speaker 2: would be first five under. I think maybe the pitchers
• 38:38
  Speaker 2: are a little bit undervalue there, and you can see
• 38:39
  Speaker 2: what the matchups look like, and the matchups to me,
• 38:42
  Speaker 2: look like they favor the pitchers a little bit. They're
• 38:45
  Speaker 2: not the bullpens, though we cannot include Kansas City's bullpen
• 38:49
  Speaker 2: in anything. Detroit's also favored very heavily. Kansas City is
• 38:52
  Speaker 2: just getting very disrespected in the market. All they're probably
• 38:56
  Speaker 2: the worst team in the American League. But Detroit's minus
• 38:59
  Speaker 2: one ninety with Valdez on the mound. I don't know
• 39:03
  Speaker 2: about that. I mean, that price seems like it's too high,
• 39:06
  Speaker 2: and the money seems to agree with that. Eighty eight
• 39:09
  Speaker 2: percent of the tickets on Detroit seventy seven percent of
• 39:11
  Speaker 2: the money, So the money indicators are kind of indicating
• 39:15
  Speaker 2: towards Kansas City and against a public Detroit side there.
• 39:19
  Speaker 2: If you're gonna try to play Kansas City, you gotta
• 39:21
  Speaker 2: do it in the first five though. There's no way
• 39:23
  Speaker 2: you want to deal with their bolt pens. So I
• 39:25
  Speaker 2: would take like the Kansas City run line in the
• 39:27
  Speaker 2: first five. I was really gonna do it that way.
• 39:30
  Speaker 2: Maybe you'll be able to get there with that one.
• 39:32
  Speaker 2: But yeah, I mean, that's not a game I want
• 39:34
  Speaker 2: to get involved in. But yeah, first five under would
• 39:38
  Speaker 2: be my strongest opinion in that game. To Dodger's Mets,
• 39:42
  Speaker 2: we got the underwright in the game yesterday, the Mets
• 39:44
  Speaker 2: trying to avoid the sweet peer. Soto is out. Like
• 39:47
  Speaker 2: I said, he got hurt the other day, left calf strain.
• 39:50
  Speaker 2: I expect that he won't be out for that long,
• 39:52
  Speaker 2: but he is out right now. He missed last night's game.
• 39:55
  Speaker 2: We were able to get the win on the under
• 39:56
  Speaker 2: yes today. Both games in the series have been low scoring,
• 40:00
  Speaker 2: this game maybe won't be able. I thought the first
• 40:03
  Speaker 2: game of this year is going to be higher scoring.
• 40:04
  Speaker 2: Sasaki was actually way better than I thought he would
• 40:07
  Speaker 2: be in the first game yesterday. Was like an elite
• 40:10
  Speaker 2: pitching matchup. So obviously we took the under in that
• 40:12
  Speaker 2: game yesterday. Although when it's that elite, a lot of
• 40:16
  Speaker 2: times you don't want to play the under because it
• 40:17
  Speaker 2: looks too obvious. But that one made sense to me.
• 40:20
  Speaker 2: We got it right now. The Mets might show up
• 40:23
  Speaker 2: with some effort here because they're trying to avoid getting
• 40:26
  Speaker 2: swept here, the Dodgers might just start looking ahead of
• 40:29
  Speaker 2: the Who are the Dodgers playing next? I don't think
• 40:31
  Speaker 2: they're playing anybody that important next though, so I don't know.
• 40:34
  Speaker 2: I forget who the Dodgers are playing next. But they
• 40:36
  Speaker 2: still might overlook the Mets, you know, because the Dodgers
• 40:39
  Speaker 2: have already won the series. They're playing Seattle next, so
• 40:43
  Speaker 2: it's kind of a big interleague matchup. I guess maybe
• 40:47
  Speaker 2: they'll start looking ahead to that, so motivationally, you could
• 40:51
  Speaker 2: maybe look towards the Mets here in this one. The
• 40:53
  Speaker 2: Mets bullpen is decent enough that they can match up
• 40:56
  Speaker 2: with the Dodgers' bullpen these two guys. Yesterday the Dodger
• 41:00
  Speaker 2: used four, so the Mets actually have the better bullpen
• 41:03
  Speaker 2: rest situation here. Dodgers are ranking seventh and bullpen the
• 41:06
  Speaker 2: Mets are tenth. The Mets. Again, there's not much separating
• 41:10
  Speaker 2: these two bullpens, so they're both decent bullpens. Obviously, there
• 41:15
  Speaker 2: was a lot separating the offense Dodgers and number one offensively,
• 41:19
  Speaker 2: and they're very good on the road as well, usually
• 41:21
  Speaker 2: but not really in this series of the Mets are
• 41:23
  Speaker 2: twenty seventh, tied with Cleveland, and at Seattle, Mets have
• 41:28
  Speaker 2: struggled offensively. They're gonna be facing Emmett Sheen here is
• 41:32
  Speaker 2: pitching for the Dodgers. Shean he's better than his era
• 41:35
  Speaker 2: makes him look. Five point one to three ERA one
• 41:37
  Speaker 2: point twenty seven whip is not that bad. He's a
• 41:40
  Speaker 2: talented pitcher man. He's just had some he's had some issues.
• 41:44
  Speaker 2: He's been bad on the road though, five point seven
• 41:47
  Speaker 2: to one Roadier race. You don't really want to back
• 41:49
  Speaker 2: him on the road. Kind of struggled in his last
• 41:51
  Speaker 2: start against Philly. He was too hittable at least in
• 41:53
  Speaker 2: that game. Although his command numbers are pretty good, so
• 41:58
  Speaker 2: hit ability might be a bit of an issue for him.
• 41:59
  Speaker 2: The Dodgers have been losing a lot of his games.
• 42:02
  Speaker 2: They've lost seven of his last eight. That's not a
• 42:05
  Speaker 2: good sign. Man. If you're backed by a really good
• 42:07
  Speaker 2: offense and you're losing all your games, yeah, that's not good.
• 42:10
  Speaker 2: He still has a fairly low hit rate here though,
• 42:12
  Speaker 2: a pretty low walk rate, and his strikeout rate is high,
• 42:15
  Speaker 2: so his numbers across the board are actually pretty good.
• 42:18
  Speaker 2: It's I think it's kind of been a little bit
• 42:20
  Speaker 2: of luck with him or bad luck with him. He's
• 42:22
  Speaker 2: a lot a lot of home runs, and that's really
• 42:24
  Speaker 2: been the main issue here. His home runs, Like, yeah,
• 42:27
  Speaker 2: the long ball is really what's getting to him here.
• 42:30
  Speaker 2: Against the Mets, they haven't really seen him. They only
• 42:32
  Speaker 2: have a Bashet and Semion and the only guys who
• 42:34
  Speaker 2: have seeing him. There's only one hit in there that
• 42:36
  Speaker 2: were combined one for four single from Semion, and they
• 42:40
  Speaker 2: have one strikeout, no walk in there. So he's unfamiliar
• 42:44
  Speaker 2: to the Mets. So he might be able to pitch
• 42:45
  Speaker 2: okay because he has unfamiliarity here, But I worry about
• 42:49
  Speaker 2: it because he hasn't been good on the road. He's
• 42:51
  Speaker 2: gonna be going up against the veteran Freddy Peralta, who's
• 42:54
  Speaker 2: also on my shit list. Par Alta. This has not
• 42:57
  Speaker 2: been a good change of scenery for him. Man. He
• 42:59
  Speaker 2: was a good starter when he was on Milwaukee, and
• 43:02
  Speaker 2: now he's on the Mets and he's not having a
• 43:04
  Speaker 2: good season. Five point oh one ERA, one point four
• 43:07
  Speaker 2: to six whip. That is not good. Although he does
• 43:10
  Speaker 2: win the home road splits here, he's better at home
• 43:12
  Speaker 2: four point oh eight Homeye, Ra, he tried to back him,
• 43:15
  Speaker 2: I think on the road last time, I think I
• 43:17
  Speaker 2: gave out an under because I thought he was going
• 43:19
  Speaker 2: to get up for that game, or at least it
• 43:20
  Speaker 2: was a lean for me. I forget if I actually
• 43:22
  Speaker 2: made it a play. I thought he was going to
• 43:23
  Speaker 2: get up for playing his former team Milwaukee, because a
• 43:26
  Speaker 2: lot of times a player, a pitcher will get up
• 43:28
  Speaker 2: to pitch against the team that got rid of him.
• 43:31
  Speaker 2: That's not what happened. He was bad in that outing.
• 43:34
  Speaker 2: Yet again, Peralta has not been good recently. Dude, I
• 43:37
  Speaker 2: don't know what else to tell you. His strike out
• 43:39
  Speaker 2: rate is still pretty good, though you look at his
• 43:42
  Speaker 2: overall numbers here. His hit rate is too high, his
• 43:44
  Speaker 2: walk rate is a bit too high, strike out rate
• 43:47
  Speaker 2: is good, so he is fooling some guys here. Still
• 43:50
  Speaker 2: he's striking guys out, but he's been a bit too wild.
• 43:53
  Speaker 2: That's really been his main issue is the I mean,
• 43:55
  Speaker 2: that's been his issue throughout his career as wildness, but
• 43:58
  Speaker 2: it's been even worse this year. And he has been
• 44:00
  Speaker 2: too hittable on top of that. So he's having some
• 44:03
  Speaker 2: issues here. He's been decent against the Dodgers though, in
• 44:06
  Speaker 2: one hundred and forty five career at bats to twenty
• 44:09
  Speaker 2: eight average, seven to twenty nine ops. That's not too bad.
• 44:11
  Speaker 2: He sell them at a low average, although they have
• 44:13
  Speaker 2: hit him for power and they have drawn a lot
• 44:15
  Speaker 2: of walks against him. Thirty two strikeouts seventeen walks. That's
• 44:19
  Speaker 2: not exactly good. That's not a good ratio. But I
• 44:21
  Speaker 2: would say he does generally have decent like numbers against
• 44:26
  Speaker 2: la I think he generally has a little bit of
• 44:28
  Speaker 2: the upper hand here. Now the oddsmakers are expecting it
• 44:32
  Speaker 2: to be high scoring, though the total is nine. Money
• 44:35
  Speaker 2: is backing the over very strongly. Fifty five percent of
• 44:38
  Speaker 2: tickets on the under ninety three percent of the cash
• 44:40
  Speaker 2: on the over I don't have a great feel for
• 44:44
  Speaker 2: the total here, you know. I mean the money is
• 44:48
  Speaker 2: strongly indicating on the Mets, and maybe that's how I
• 44:51
  Speaker 2: would look here. A lot of it would be the price,
• 44:53
  Speaker 2: but just the motivational standpoint that you get with the
• 44:56
  Speaker 2: Mets here, and I think at the very least Paralda
• 44:58
  Speaker 2: should be able to match up against she And you
• 45:00
  Speaker 2: would think, like you would think that the Mets just
• 45:02
  Speaker 2: throughout this game, they should be able to somewhat match
• 45:05
  Speaker 2: the Dodgers, except I know their offense isn't as good,
• 45:07
  Speaker 2: but they're pitching should be kind of on even footing
• 45:11
  Speaker 2: with the Dodgers in this game, you know what I mean,
• 45:13
  Speaker 2: both starting pitching and bullpen. We have eighty seven percent
• 45:16
  Speaker 2: of tickets on the Dodgers, eighty seven percent of the
• 45:18
  Speaker 2: cash on the Mets. So it looks like there's a
• 45:19
  Speaker 2: big pros versus Joe's market here, and the Dodgers are
• 45:22
  Speaker 2: laying like minus one fifty something here on the road
• 45:26
  Speaker 2: with Shean as their pitcher. I think the Dodgers are
• 45:30
  Speaker 2: overpriced here, man. I think it's just because they're the Dodgers,
• 45:33
  Speaker 2: and just because the Mets have been really bad this season,
• 45:36
  Speaker 2: but there's probably some value looking towards the Mets there.
• 45:39
  Speaker 2: I mean, you could turn it into maybe a run
• 45:40
  Speaker 2: line type of situation if you want to really do that,
• 45:45
  Speaker 2: make it a plus one run line or something. Maybe
• 45:47
  Speaker 2: on the full game. I think that would be my
• 45:49
  Speaker 2: best opinion in that game would be to do something
• 45:51
  Speaker 2: like that, find some way of playing the Mets, you know,
• 45:55
  Speaker 2: full game run line type of thing. All right, San
• 45:58
  Speaker 2: Diego and Miami. Miami lost again yesterday, even though Uri
• 46:02
  Speaker 2: Perez was pitching. Miami's now lost eleven games in a row.
• 46:06
  Speaker 2: I believe it was with maybe twelve now I don't
• 46:08
  Speaker 2: even know what this is, but Miami does fall into
• 46:11
  Speaker 2: this category of trying to avoid a sweep. Now they're
• 46:14
  Speaker 2: at home and trying to avoid a sweep. So usually
• 46:17
  Speaker 2: teams are very motivated, and that's spot. And they just
• 46:19
  Speaker 2: fell below five hundred for the first time probably sits
• 46:24
  Speaker 2: very early in the season, so that usually is the
• 46:27
  Speaker 2: motivator as well. When you fall below five hundred, you
• 46:30
  Speaker 2: don't like to look at that right now. You're a
• 46:32
  Speaker 2: losing team. You really want to if you've been a
• 46:34
  Speaker 2: winning team most of the season. You really want to
• 46:36
  Speaker 2: get back on the winning side, you know what I mean.
• 46:38
  Speaker 2: So I think you're gonna get an effort out of
• 46:39
  Speaker 2: Miami here. Now there are some problems with that. Miami
• 46:43
  Speaker 2: their bullpen. Actually the bullpen isn't used because Uri Perez
• 46:47
  Speaker 2: pitched yesterday, so Miami only used one relief pitcher. So
• 46:51
  Speaker 2: actually that's not a problem. San Diego used more of
• 46:53
  Speaker 2: their bullpen yesterday. They used three guys. I think generally
• 46:57
  Speaker 2: San Diego is the better bullpen. They ranked eleventh, ough
• 46:59
  Speaker 2: Miami me six, but San Diego is the better era.
• 47:03
  Speaker 2: I think San Diego's bullpen is better, but Miami's is
• 47:06
  Speaker 2: not that much worse. Miami is the better offense. They're
• 47:09
  Speaker 2: an ninth, tied with the Yankees. Do I think they're
• 47:13
  Speaker 2: actually as good offensively as the Yankees. No, but the
• 47:15
  Speaker 2: Yankees have struggled recently offensively, But we know San Diego
• 47:21
  Speaker 2: is not that good. They're twenty six. They've been a
• 47:23
  Speaker 2: little bit better recently, but there's still a struggling offense.
• 47:26
  Speaker 2: And San Diego is going with Walker Buehler here. I mean,
• 47:29
  Speaker 2: he is definitely beatable, especially on the road. He's not
• 47:32
  Speaker 2: having a good season. Five point two to three RA
• 47:34
  Speaker 2: one point four to three whip. He's really pretty much
• 47:37
  Speaker 2: been bad since his Tommy John surgeries and whatever. I
• 47:41
  Speaker 2: think he's the reason he's sticking in the league is
• 47:44
  Speaker 2: because he looks somewhat good at times, because he used
• 47:47
  Speaker 2: to be good, and he's a veteran, so I think
• 47:49
  Speaker 2: teams are expecting, Oh, at some point he's gonna bounce
• 47:51
  Speaker 2: back to his previous form. It looks like that's never
• 47:54
  Speaker 2: gonna happen, but I think teams are just banking on
• 47:59
  Speaker 2: the possibility of that happening at this point. He's been
• 48:03
  Speaker 2: bad on the He's been decent at home in San
• 48:05
  Speaker 2: Diego's a pitcher friendly ballpark. He's been bad on the
• 48:08
  Speaker 2: road though, six point h five roadyr now Miami is
• 48:11
  Speaker 2: a pitcher friendly park as well. But Bueller's not pitching well, dude.
• 48:15
  Speaker 2: He's got a fourteen to fourteen strike out walk ratuer
• 48:18
  Speaker 2: this month that is terrible, and an eleven point eight
• 48:21
  Speaker 2: eight ERA this month that is not good. Even in
• 48:23
  Speaker 2: his last start, where he looks like he pitched okay
• 48:25
  Speaker 2: against the Braves and he picked up a win, he
• 48:28
  Speaker 2: walked a ton of guys in that start, Dude. He
• 48:30
  Speaker 2: was not really that good in that one. His hit
• 48:33
  Speaker 2: rate is a little bit too high as well. His
• 48:35
  Speaker 2: walk rate, as you could gas is already it's way
• 48:38
  Speaker 2: too high. His strike out rate is mediocre. So yeah,
• 48:41
  Speaker 2: I mean, he's not pitching well. Most of it is
• 48:44
  Speaker 2: his walks. He is a walker against Miami, though he's
• 48:48
  Speaker 2: actually been pretty good. Although they only have eleven at
• 48:50
  Speaker 2: bats against him, They only have one hit, a single
• 48:53
  Speaker 2: from Auto Lopez. They have three walks, one strikeout oh
• 48:56
  Speaker 2: ninety one average as you could get from what I
• 49:00
  Speaker 2: already said in three seventy seven ops. So Bueller does
• 49:04
  Speaker 2: actually have good numbers against Miami, but I'm not sure
• 49:07
  Speaker 2: that's enough.
• 49:08
  Speaker 3: Man.
• 49:08
  Speaker 2: Bueller might struggle here. I mean again, he's been bad recently,
• 49:11
  Speaker 2: bad on the road. Miami's going with Jansen Junk. Junk
• 49:15
  Speaker 2: was good at the beginning of the season. He's not
• 49:17
  Speaker 2: pitching well right now though he's in bad form too.
• 49:21
  Speaker 2: He's got a five point zero nine y R now
• 49:23
  Speaker 2: one point three to five whip Way, worse numbers than
• 49:25
  Speaker 2: he had earlier in the season. He does have the
• 49:28
  Speaker 2: better of the home road splits here, though he is
• 49:30
  Speaker 2: better at home four point three six homey RA but
• 49:33
  Speaker 2: he struggled last time out at Houston. He's had eight
• 49:36
  Speaker 2: strikeouts seven walks. Since returning from injury. Things have not
• 49:41
  Speaker 2: gone well. Man. He was starting to pitch poorly before
• 49:43
  Speaker 2: he went down, and since he's come back, his wildness
• 49:46
  Speaker 2: has been a major issue. He hasn't pitched well since
• 49:50
  Speaker 2: coming back. He's got a high hit rate on the
• 49:52
  Speaker 2: season at this point. His walk rate is okay. His
• 49:54
  Speaker 2: strike out rate is fairly low, so he doesn't really
• 49:57
  Speaker 2: strike guys out. He's not great. He might be better
• 50:00
  Speaker 2: of the buller though. Against San Diego, though he's really
• 50:03
  Speaker 2: struggled eleven at bats. I know it's a small sample,
• 50:05
  Speaker 2: only four hitters have faced him. They've done some damage though,
• 50:09
  Speaker 2: three sixty four average, nine oh nine ops two, zero
• 50:13
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio. I mean, situation, it looks like you
• 50:16
  Speaker 2: should maybe want to back Miami. And I wouldn't disagree
• 50:21
  Speaker 2: with the Miami side here, but I mean, obviously there
• 50:25
  Speaker 2: are there are concerns about it, you know which I
• 50:27
  Speaker 2: just showed you the matchup pitching. Matchup numbers don't look great.
• 50:31
  Speaker 2: The form of the picture doesn't look great. Fifty six
• 50:34
  Speaker 2: percent of tickets are on San Diego, so the public
• 50:37
  Speaker 2: looks like they're backing San Diego. The actual money looks
• 50:39
  Speaker 2: like it is backing Miami. In agreement with me, eighty
• 50:42
  Speaker 2: percent of the cash on Miami, they were about minus
• 50:46
  Speaker 2: one thirty on the money line. Yeah, I mean, if
• 50:49
  Speaker 2: I was gonna play this game, I guess that's what
• 50:52
  Speaker 2: I would do and just back Miami in the full game.
• 50:54
  Speaker 2: I mean, their bullpen could probably match up here, and
• 50:57
  Speaker 2: the motivation should be there at least to try to
• 51:00
  Speaker 2: break this horrible losing streak. Nobody's gonna want them here,
• 51:03
  Speaker 2: but this might be the spot where maybe Miami is
• 51:05
  Speaker 2: able to break it because they're up against a weak pitcher,
• 51:08
  Speaker 2: but he does have the matchup edge against them, so
• 51:10
  Speaker 2: I worry about that. And the money is also backing
• 51:13
  Speaker 2: the under in this game under eight and a half.
• 51:15
  Speaker 2: I would lean over in this game personally. I mean,
• 51:20
  Speaker 2: these are not good starting pitchers here, so I would
• 51:22
  Speaker 2: not try to back an under in that game. I
• 51:25
  Speaker 2: think the over makes more sense. Probably. My preference would
• 51:28
  Speaker 2: still actually be to play Miami, though, but it seems
• 51:31
  Speaker 2: pretty risky. Maybe they'll do it, though, you know, I mean,
• 51:35
  Speaker 2: I'd like to be on Miami, like as an actual
• 51:37
  Speaker 2: play when they actually break this losing streak. But you
• 51:40
  Speaker 2: gotta do what you gotta do, man. You can't take
• 51:42
  Speaker 2: the risk just to feel good about it, you know
• 51:45
  Speaker 2: what I mean, and be like, oh, I was right
• 51:46
  Speaker 2: they broke the losing streaking. I could still say I
• 51:48
  Speaker 2: was right because that's my opinion on the game at least,
• 51:51
  Speaker 2: so there you go. Not many people will have that
• 51:54
  Speaker 2: opinion today. As in Minnesota, I've been very wrong about
• 51:58
  Speaker 2: this series. I thought this was gonna be a high
• 51:59
  Speaker 2: score warning series, and instead we've had four runs scored
• 52:02
  Speaker 2: in two games total. Two games combined have not gone
• 52:08
  Speaker 2: over the lowest totally you'll ever see in the in
• 52:11
  Speaker 2: Major League Baseball. Ridiculous because you have two really bad
• 52:15
  Speaker 2: bullpens here. Maybe this game will finally go over the total.
• 52:19
  Speaker 2: I don't know, man, Man, I wouldn't want to bank
• 52:21
  Speaker 2: on it, but it's crazy that you've had. Each team
• 52:23
  Speaker 2: has won by a score of two and nothing in
• 52:25
  Speaker 2: the series so far, with Minnesota kidding the win yesterday
• 52:28
  Speaker 2: tune and nothing behind. Who even who pitched for Minnesota.
• 52:32
  Speaker 2: I don't even remember who pitched for them yesterday, I forget.
• 52:36
  Speaker 2: I don't think it was any of their better pitchers, right.
• 52:38
  Speaker 2: Joe Ryan was supposed to pitch today, but I think
• 52:40
  Speaker 2: they pushed him back because Connor Prelip is coming back
• 52:43
  Speaker 2: from injury. So I guess they decided to just put
• 52:45
  Speaker 2: him out there and rest Joe Ryan. I guess. I
• 52:48
  Speaker 2: don't know. I don't know what the deal is. I'm
• 52:50
  Speaker 2: curious now I gotta remember who pitched. Oh man, Oh
• 52:54
  Speaker 2: that's right. Minnesota went with a bullpend game yesterday and
• 52:57
  Speaker 2: they and they shut out the A's. Are you kidding me?
• 53:00
  Speaker 2: You gotta be kidding me. That's crazy, dude. And the
• 53:03
  Speaker 2: A's actually went with a bullpen game. Do they put
• 53:05
  Speaker 2: an opener in front of Barnett? So that game was crazy, crazy, unpredictable, man,
• 53:11
  Speaker 2: although I would have predicted way more runs to come
• 53:14
  Speaker 2: home in that game, which I think I did on
• 53:16
  Speaker 2: the show yesterday. The A's used four relief pitchers. Their
• 53:19
  Speaker 2: bullpen is very bad. Minnesota used four as well. Their
• 53:22
  Speaker 2: bullpen is also very bad. The A's are twenty eighth
• 53:26
  Speaker 2: and they have the worst bullpen in the RA and Minnesota
• 53:28
  Speaker 2: is twenty ninth in bullpen. So yeah, you're looking at
• 53:31
  Speaker 2: two bad bullpens here. You're looking at two capable offenses.
• 53:35
  Speaker 2: They're actually both tied in twelfth right now in ops,
• 53:40
  Speaker 2: so yeah, I mean the offenses should have the upper
• 53:42
  Speaker 2: hand in the series, but has not happened. Jeffrey Springs
• 53:46
  Speaker 2: is pitching for the A's here. He's been decent for them,
• 53:50
  Speaker 2: but he's not pitching well this year, although he was
• 53:53
  Speaker 2: if I remember correct, that he pitched well for them
• 53:55
  Speaker 2: on the road last year. He just really struggled at home.
• 53:57
  Speaker 2: And of course as we look into his numbers, he
• 53:59
  Speaker 2: is still better on the road because pitchers just can't
• 54:02
  Speaker 2: pitch in that a stadium. It's awful, and the Red
• 54:04
  Speaker 2: Sox have to go there next, So isn't that great?
• 54:07
  Speaker 2: Springs five point nine to sixty RA, one point four
• 54:10
  Speaker 2: to two whip. Those are not good numbers, but like
• 54:12
  Speaker 2: I said, he is at least better on the road
• 54:14
  Speaker 2: than he is at home five point zero three road
• 54:17
  Speaker 2: y RA, So he does pitch better when he's away
• 54:19
  Speaker 2: from that horrible stadium. Pitch alright, last time out at Arizona,
• 54:24
  Speaker 2: wasn't pitching well leading into that game. Though he's got
• 54:27
  Speaker 2: a high hit rate on the season, that's not good.
• 54:29
  Speaker 2: His walk rate is okay, his strikeout rate is pretty low.
• 54:32
  Speaker 2: It doesn't really strike guys out. He allows a lot
• 54:34
  Speaker 2: of fly balls, which again is another part of the
• 54:38
  Speaker 2: reason why he's really bad in that a stadium, he's
• 54:40
  Speaker 2: a lot a ton of home runs. He might have
• 54:42
  Speaker 2: allowed the most home runs in baseball, so farm twenty
• 54:45
  Speaker 2: seven already, that is very bad. He's been good against
• 54:48
  Speaker 2: the Twins though, he's actually pretty much dominated them forty
• 54:52
  Speaker 2: at bats decent sample there. They have no excer base hits,
• 54:55
  Speaker 2: fourteen strikeouts, three walks, one twenty five average three to
• 54:59
  Speaker 2: eleven oh ps, So Springs has actually been good against Minnesota.
• 55:04
  Speaker 2: Pre Lip, like I said, is coming back from Minnesota. Now,
• 55:08
  Speaker 2: I do like to back pictures when they come off
• 55:09
  Speaker 2: the DL if they're veterans, but he's not a veteran.
• 55:13
  Speaker 2: He's he's a rookie, so he's the opposite. So I
• 55:16
  Speaker 2: don't know how he's gonna respond to coming back from
• 55:18
  Speaker 2: injury and pre Lip he looked pretty good or early
• 55:20
  Speaker 2: in the season, but he's been struggling as well. He's
• 55:22
  Speaker 2: got a five ERA one point three to seven whip.
• 55:25
  Speaker 2: He's better at home, though significantly his opponent of batting
• 55:29
  Speaker 2: average is way better at home, and he's got a
• 55:31
  Speaker 2: four point one to five homey ra, which is decent.
• 55:34
  Speaker 2: Actually was okay in his last couple of starts before
• 55:37
  Speaker 2: he went down, so he was actually kind of coming
• 55:39
  Speaker 2: back into form then he got injured. His hit rate
• 55:42
  Speaker 2: is right around one per inning, which is very average.
• 55:44
  Speaker 2: His walk rate is pretty average as well. I would
• 55:47
  Speaker 2: say strike out rate decent, so he does have the
• 55:49
  Speaker 2: ability to strike guys out more than one per inning.
• 55:52
  Speaker 2: That's a good sign that he does have stuff that
• 55:55
  Speaker 2: can fool hitters. And the A's have never faced him before,
• 55:58
  Speaker 2: so he does have that advance of having the unfamiliarity
• 56:01
  Speaker 2: against the A's here. Still not so sure that's gonna
• 56:04
  Speaker 2: be enough though. The totals high again here at ten.
• 56:08
  Speaker 2: The money is back in the over sixty three percent
• 56:11
  Speaker 2: of tickets on the under seventy eight percent of the
• 56:12
  Speaker 2: cash on the over, So the money is saying over
• 56:15
  Speaker 2: in this game. I mean, I don't really disagree with
• 56:19
  Speaker 2: the over. I think at some point something's got to give, man,
• 56:23
  Speaker 2: and maybe the floodgates will open here in an afternoon game,
• 56:27
  Speaker 2: where should be I assume somewhat warm weather. It's cooled
• 56:30
  Speaker 2: off here in Boston, so I don't know maybe it
• 56:32
  Speaker 2: is not that hot in Minnesota right now either, even
• 56:34
  Speaker 2: though we're in the middle of summer. It was down
• 56:36
  Speaker 2: in the fifties here last night, So I don't know,
• 56:40
  Speaker 2: but yeah, I mean I would have a slight lean
• 56:42
  Speaker 2: towards the over in that game. And the money's back
• 56:44
  Speaker 2: in the A's actually, you know what I mean, First
• 56:49
  Speaker 2: five under actually might kind of make sense in a
• 56:52
  Speaker 2: way in this game because Springs, both pitchers are in
• 56:56
  Speaker 2: their better home roads split Springs has been good against
• 56:58
  Speaker 2: Minnesota again, he's obviously better on the road, and pre
• 57:02
  Speaker 2: Lip has the unfamiliarity at you So actually, first five
• 57:05
  Speaker 2: under actually might make some sense in that game. And
• 57:07
  Speaker 2: the money is backing the A's here eighty percent of tickets,
• 57:10
  Speaker 2: seventy one percent of the cash on Minnesota at like
• 57:12
  Speaker 2: minus one fifty. I mean, I can kind of understand
• 57:16
  Speaker 2: the argument, right Like Springs has some h he has
• 57:20
  Speaker 2: a decent sample size that we've seen against Minnesota, and
• 57:23
  Speaker 2: he's been good against Minnesota, so you might be able
• 57:25
  Speaker 2: to put more weight into that sample size there, and
• 57:28
  Speaker 2: you're getting the A's at a big underdog price, like
• 57:30
  Speaker 2: they're getting very disrespected in the market here. Maybe the
• 57:34
  Speaker 2: a's first five might make some sense here in this
• 57:37
  Speaker 2: one to maybe have the upper hand of the pitching matchup.
• 57:40
  Speaker 2: I'm not sure if I would really want to do that,
• 57:42
  Speaker 2: but yeah, I mean pre Lip Minnesota and pre Lip
• 57:45
  Speaker 2: probably should not be favored by that much really against anybody.
• 57:48
  Speaker 2: So the A is getting very disrespected. The oddsmakers are
• 57:52
  Speaker 2: considering them to be one of the worst teams in baseball.
• 57:54
  Speaker 2: So I think the Royals are still probably the worst
• 57:59
  Speaker 2: team in the A, and I still probably think Colorado
• 58:01
  Speaker 2: is the worst team in baseball. But do what you
• 58:05
  Speaker 2: want to do with all that, Colorado. Speaking of which,
• 58:07
  Speaker 2: they're playing in Milwaukee here. Milwaukee got the win yesterday
• 58:11
  Speaker 2: to bounce back after losing the first game of the series,
• 58:15
  Speaker 2: so we have a rubber match in the series, so
• 58:17
  Speaker 2: both teams probably will have motivation here. Colorado used two
• 58:21
  Speaker 2: guys out of the bullpen to name Milwaukee use three.
• 58:24
  Speaker 2: Milwaukee definitely has a better bullpen, though they are ranked
• 58:28
  Speaker 2: ninth in bullpen. Colorado is not good. They're twenty seventh
• 58:32
  Speaker 2: hitting wise, Colorado is still has been good other fifth overall,
• 58:36
  Speaker 2: Milwaukee seventh, so both teams have had good offenses. Pidgeon
• 58:40
  Speaker 2: matchup is a pretty big mismatch here, and Milwaukee is
• 58:43
  Speaker 2: a massive favorite in this game for that reason, which
• 58:47
  Speaker 2: again you can't lay a price like the one that's
• 58:49
  Speaker 2: on Milwaukee here. But Freeland, Kyle Freeland is pitching for
• 58:53
  Speaker 2: the Rockies. He has not been good at all. Seven
• 58:56
  Speaker 2: point two eighty RRA, one point five to six whip
• 58:59
  Speaker 2: not good. Somehow, he's even worse on the road away
• 59:02
  Speaker 2: from course field hiss era goes up to eight point
• 59:04
  Speaker 2: too eight. I don't even get it, man. He's actually
• 59:09
  Speaker 2: had good command this month twenty two to three strike
• 59:11
  Speaker 2: out walk ratio, but he's allowed too many hits. He's
• 59:14
  Speaker 2: a lot, a bunch of runs, a bunch of home runs.
• 59:16
  Speaker 2: I mean, none of that is really good except the
• 59:18
  Speaker 2: command has been good. But I mean, yeah, your command
• 59:21
  Speaker 2: can be good, but if you're also putting pitches right
• 59:24
  Speaker 2: over the plate and you're being too hittable, that's not
• 59:26
  Speaker 2: a good thing. Even though yeah, I do like his
• 59:29
  Speaker 2: command numbers actually, but his hit rate is It's been
• 59:32
  Speaker 2: the case all season. His hit rate is way too high.
• 59:35
  Speaker 2: He's allowed too many home runs. His walk rate isn't
• 59:38
  Speaker 2: bad though his walk rates low. His strike out rate
• 59:40
  Speaker 2: is somewhat okay, but yeah, he's just way too hittable.
• 59:44
  Speaker 2: He's not very good, although against Milwaukee his numbers are
• 59:49
  Speaker 2: kind of more mediocre. In ninety six at bats, two
• 59:51
  Speaker 2: fifty average, seven to ninety one OPS is still pretty
• 59:54
  Speaker 2: it's a bit high. Twenty two to seven strike out
• 59:57
  Speaker 2: walk ratio. These numbers are pretty mediocre. I would say
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 2: across the board, Milwaukee probably has the slight upper hand
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 2: against them offensively. Milwaukee, obviously, if they're favored by as
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 2: much as they are, you know that means Jacob Mizierowski
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 2: is pitching, which he is. He's been excellent. I think
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 2: he's the best pitcher in baseball at this point one
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 2: point five to seven point seven to seven whip. He's
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 2: been even better at home one point four to nine
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 2: home he raven those home batting average allowed is actually
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 2: a little bit worse. I don't know what happened in
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 2: his last down. He only went four innings. I don't
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 2: know if there was rain delay or I don't know
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 2: what the hell happened in that game. But he had
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 2: allowed nowher and runs against the Mets, obviously they wouldn't
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 2: have taken him out yet. Uh sixty five pitches in
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 2: I'm not really sure what went on there, but Missierowski
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 2: has had a good season the entire season. Man, he's
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 2: got an extremely low hit rate. His walk rate is
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 2: low as well. His strike gout rate is very high.
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 2: So if there's anything to pick at, it's that he's
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 2: a little bit wild. But even that hasn't really been
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 2: much of an issue at all, and he's been good
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 2: against Colorado. Has faced them in twenty eight at bats
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 2: one forty three a average, allowed four or four ops
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 2: nine to three strike out walk ratio. See, as expected,
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 2: he's been really good. Milwaukee should win this game, but
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 2: obviously you cannot lay minus three point fifty or whatever
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 2: with them, and that's ridiculous. Ninety one percent of tickets,
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 2: ninety five percent of the cash on Milwaukee. I mean,
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 2: I don't really see any reason to really back Colorado
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 2: here though, even though Milwaukee is public. Whatever. If you're
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 2: gonna back Colorado would be just because the total is
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 2: really low. At seven and a half, you're expecting it
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 2: to be a low scoring game, and maybe Colorado just
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 2: won't lose by that much and maybe you could take
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 2: them like plus two and a half on the run
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 2: line or something to hope they don't lose by more
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 2: than two. I I would not do it. I mean,
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 2: I don't see a great way of playing this game
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 2: at all. I mean, maybe you could lean into Mizierowski
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 2: dominating Colorado and you could take the Rockies under their
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 2: team total. Seems a little dangerous though, I mean, especially
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 2: if the game becomes kind of a blowout. Then the
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 2: problem is that Colorado might just put up a garbage
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 2: time run or two, and then you're gonna lose your
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 2: play because if they score more than like two runs,
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 2: you're probably gonna lose that. So again, that's why I
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 2: don't really like these team totals under I guess you
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 2: could play Milwaukee over their team total, but then you're
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 2: losing one of the best advantages Milwaukee has, which is
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 2: their starting pitcher. There just isn't really much of a
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 2: way to play this game. Man. The money's also back
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 2: in the over seven and a half, I mean, seven
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 2: and a half does seem low, given the fact that
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 2: one of the two pitchers is terrible, Like that's how
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 2: good Missierowski is that he alone makes the total dis low.
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 2: Like that means that if Missierowski was up against a
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 2: decent pitcher. This total would be like six. I mean,
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 2: it's so ridiculous, but yeah, Freeland, I don't think should
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 2: ever really be involved in a game with a total
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 2: that low, which again, that is kind of an indicator
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 2: that maybe Milwaukee team total over makes some sense. I
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 2: don't know if I'd really want to come in and
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 2: play the over in the game, although it might happen.
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 2: I mean, Milwaukee might get you most of the way
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 2: there on their own in that game, So I don't know. Man,
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 2: it's it's not really a game that is playable unfortunately.
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 2: All Right, I'm gonna be right back and then I'll
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 2: talk about the rest days. I have one more play
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 2: to give out, which is another total, and you could
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 2: probably guess what it is if you look at the
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 2: remaining games. But I'll be right back. Yep. Inside, I
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 2: want to kill myself. We're on own seven run over.
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 2: The last two days after tonight it was just complete bullshit.
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 2: So that's that's how I'm gonna start off this show.
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 2: Horrible Sunday one and five. I don't even know what
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 2: to tell you above that I just don't want to
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 2: do this anymore. I have never seen anything like this, man,
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 2: with the slump continuing. Two straight losses, not a good
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 2: day at all. Own four, I have not had a
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 2: good season, man, with bookends slump that I'm on. The
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 2: slump continues. I've reached a new peak. Actually, I'm going
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 2: to burn my browins hat Man, I don't know what
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 2: is going on with the Bruins, Archie, is that what
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 2: it is? I don't even know it's March ninth, I
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 2: think who even knows? Man, I don't know what day
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 2: is anymore. But I don't even know what data is anymore.
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 2: Man's back with you after the worst day that I
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 2: could possibly have, Back with you as I always am
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 2: until I die at least oh and two yesterday and
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 2: yesterday it did not go well for me. Own five
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 2: the worst month that I've ever had in my eighteen
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 2: years doing this. I don't know what to even tell
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 2: you about this anymore. The slump, the slump discontinuous, The
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 2: slump continues. Somebody fucking kill me, please. I don't even
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 2: know what I should do at this point, other than
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 2: potentially end it all all right. Next game is Houston
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 2: and the White Sox on ESPN on limit to The
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 2: White Sox also fall into this category of home team
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 2: trying to avoid a sweep, so they should be a
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 2: little bit extra motivated here, although I think Houston is
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 2: only playing like Anaheim next or something, which I know
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 2: it's a divisional series, but I don't know if they're
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 2: really going to look ahead to a team like Anaheim.
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 2: White Sox should be a little bit extra motivated here though,
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 2: though the White Socks don't exactly have the best starting
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 2: pitcher on the mound here for the job. Both bullpens
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 2: are pretty mediocre. Houston used three guys yesterday, White Sox
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 2: used two again. Houston, they're nowhere near as bad as
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 2: they were at the beginning of the season out of
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 2: the bullpen though. They're nineteenth, so they're a decent bullpen
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 2: at this point. The White Sox are eighteenth. Yeah, so
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 2: we're looking at okay bullpens here. Both offenses have been
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 2: reasonably capable Houston eleventh, White Sox sixteenth. I would say
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 2: mediocre offenses. Starting pitching here is kind of interesting. Houston
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 2: is going with Renelle Blanco, who has a really bad
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 2: looking seven point seven to one era. However, his whip
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 2: is one point seven. He's mister pine Tar by the way,
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 2: so he got suspended for pine tar last year. If
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 2: you look at what he's done the last couple of seasons.
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 2: Though before he got hurt last year, he was pitching well,
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 2: like he's way better than these numbers make him look,
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 2: and his whip is still good. This year's just his
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 2: ERA is way high, so he got unlucky. He's only
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 2: made one start so far. I was against Miami. He
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 2: gave up four runs and four to two thirds innings,
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 2: but he only gave up two hits and three walks
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 2: and had a lot of strikeouts eight strikeouts. He was
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 2: inefficient with his pitches though, eighty six pitches, but he's
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 2: not as bad as that amount of runs makes him look.
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 2: So I think he might be an undervalued pitcher right now.
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 2: Just because it's such a small sample size, his era
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 2: is extremely misleading. Right now, all the White Socks only
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 2: have two hitters have ever faced and Ben and Tendy
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 2: and vargas usual suspects there, and they're zero for three
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 2: with a strikeout against him. Some Blanco has some unfamiliarity
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 2: against this lineup, and this lineup has never had a
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 2: hit off of him or reached base off of him,
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 2: so he's hard to get, man, I think Blanco might
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 2: match up pretty well here. If you're gonna play this game,
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 2: I would be aware that the White Sox may put
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 2: an opener in front in front of Fetti here, So
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 2: the White Sox you may want to play action with
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 2: the White Sox side. You might want to pick Blanco
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 2: must start, but don't pick a White Sox starter here.
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 2: Fetti is likely going to pitch here, but again, they
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 2: might just put an opener in front of him, because
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 2: they've done that a lot this year. Fetti has not
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 2: been great. Four point one six ERA, one point four
• 1:07:29
  Speaker 2: whip is not good. He's been better at home though,
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 2: two point nine to one home he array is pretty
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 2: good actually, and he's been better recently, although he's not
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 2: going deep into his outings here. But he is actually
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 2: pitching decently recently as we can as we do that
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 2: rhyme again, the White Sox have won his last four
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 2: starts and he's allowed three or fewer earned runs and
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 2: all those outings and a bunch of recent outings, some
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 2: of them not going deep into the game. But yeah,
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 2: he's at least pitching better than he was before. His
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 2: hit rate is still a little bit high. As walk
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 2: rate is okay, his strikeout rate is very low, so
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 2: he's not really fooling anybody, and he's still not really trustworthy,
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 2: but at least he's kind of serviceable right now. Like
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 2: he's not the way he's pitching right now, he's not
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 2: going to completely ruin the game for you. His numbers
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 2: agains Houston are actually pretty good in fifty one at
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 2: bats one seventy six average, five to eleven ops, fifteen
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 2: to four strikeout walk ratio. I mean, the White Socks motivationally,
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 2: they should show up here, and you could maybe look
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 2: that way just because of the motivation, and if you're
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 2: gonna play the White Socks, I guess maybe you could
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 2: try to go full game on this because they probably
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 2: have the slightly better bullpen. It's a Pickham price, but
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 2: I kind of like the first five under in this one.
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 2: I don't love the bullpens. Well, I mean you could
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 2: go full game actually too. I mean, it's right on
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 2: that key number of nine. But the oddsmakers are kind
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 2: of telling you they think it's gonna be a higher
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 2: scoring game. And the money is back in the over
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 2: eighty four percent of tickets on the under seventy seven
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 2: percent of the cash on the over. I don't really
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 2: want to go against a market read like that if
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 2: I don't really have a really strong feeling about it.
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 2: But both starting pitchers look like they actually match up
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 2: well here, so I could see the argument for an
• 1:09:10
  Speaker 2: under here, even the first five or maybe even full game,
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 2: because the bullpens aren't even really that bad. So yeah,
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 2: I mean, I don't think i'd want to be on
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 2: and over in that game, but I think under either
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 2: first five or full game might even make the most
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 2: sense here. And then the money's back in Houston. Fifty
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 2: seven percent of tickets on the White Sox, sixty six
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 2: percent of the cash on Houston. I think the public
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 2: is still backing in the White Sox just because I
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 2: think they're still leading their division maybe and their record
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 2: is still pretty good and better than Houston, so the
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 2: public is still coming in on them. And you know,
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 2: like I said, motivation should be on the White Sox
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 2: side because they're a home team trying to win a sweep,
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 2: which is usually a pretty strong motivational angle, but the
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 2: money back in Houston, and maybe they're right. I mean,
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 2: I think if you just you know, if you just
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 2: zoom out a little bit and don't dig into all
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 2: these matchup numbers and stuff. Even though both pictures look
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 2: like they have good match whatever. Blanco is better than fetti,
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 2: like that's just the thing there. So Houston should have
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 2: a bit of a matchup edge there. So yeah, maybe
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 2: like Houston first five could be worth maybe a little
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 2: bit of a lean there, but yeah, I think under
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 2: makes the most sense there. Maybe still first five under
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 2: Cincinnati at Saint Louis. These teams have split this series
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 2: so far. Each team has won one game. Saint Louis
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 2: won at seven and nothing yesterday. These teams have both
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 2: struggled to hit recently, and I don't really like either
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 2: bullpen either. Saint Louis used one guy out of the bullpen,
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 2: so they're rested. At least Cincinnati used two so the
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 2: bullpen's are rested. But these are not trustworthy bullpens. Saint
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 2: Louis Is twenty second, Cincinnati twenty fifth. Don't like these bullpens.
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 2: The offenses, like I said, have been struggling as well.
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 2: Cincinnati twenty seconds Saint Louis twenty fifth not good. The
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 2: pitching matchup is a pretty mediocre pitching matchup here Andrew
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 2: Abbot is pitching four Cincinnati. He's been decent for them
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 2: since they've had him, which has been his entire career,
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 2: but his whip is pretty bad this year. Is RRA
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 2: is still pretty good at three point eight nine. One
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 2: point four whip is kind of a problem, though he's
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 2: putting too many guys on base. However, he's been significantly
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 2: better on the road, so he's starting to struggle at
• 1:11:18
  Speaker 2: Cincinnati's Great American Ballpark, which is pretty hit or friendly,
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 2: but he's got a two point eight to eight roadie
• 1:11:24
  Speaker 2: I Ray, so he's pitching better on the road. Pitch
• 1:11:27
  Speaker 2: well last time out in Seattle, which is a pitcher
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 2: friendly park. Saint Louis is also a pitcher friendly park though,
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 2: and Yeah, Abbott, he's been okay really throughout the season.
• 1:11:36
  Speaker 2: Like he doesn't allow that many runs, that's the thing,
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 2: and his worst starts were all really early in the season.
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 2: So he is pitching a little bit better right now.
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 2: He's got a reasonably low hit rate here. His walk
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 2: rate is way too high though. Strike out rate is
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 2: nothing special, but he's not a strike up pitcher. But
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 2: the walk rate, he's got to figure that out. That's
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 2: his one issue is he's given away free passes all
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 2: over the place. He's been good against Saint Lewis, though
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 2: I think he's pitched against him once this year maybe
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 2: and did pretty well. But he's got good numbers against
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 2: some seventy four at bats, one seventy six average for
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 2: forty oh ps, twenty to six strikeout walk ratios. He's
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 2: been good against Saint Louis. Actually I was wrong. He
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 2: did not pitch against them this year, but he's been
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 2: good against him in the past. So Abbot looks like
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 2: he has a good match up here. I think he's
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 2: probably the better pitcher here too, over Kyle lay Hee,
• 1:12:24
  Speaker 2: although lay He has kind of been serviceable as well.
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 2: A three point five to ninety ray one point three
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 2: to five whip, it's not that bad, and lay He
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 2: has been better at home, so both pitchers are in
• 1:12:34
  Speaker 2: the better home road split here two point nine to
• 1:12:37
  Speaker 2: four homy array For lay He, he's actually been pretty
• 1:12:41
  Speaker 2: good over his last several starts. Really, he's he's actually
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 2: turned it around and pitched pretty well, so he's not
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 2: been that bad recently. He's not a strikeout guy though,
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 2: kind of like Abbot, he doesn't really strike anybody out.
• 1:12:54
  Speaker 2: His hit rate is right around one per inning, which
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 2: is not great. His walker rate is actually okay, he's
• 1:13:00
  Speaker 2: less walk heavy than abb it is Yeah, I mean
• 1:13:03
  Speaker 2: Lay he might actually be able to do al right
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 2: here the Reds, though they've hit him in the past
• 1:13:07
  Speaker 2: fifty two at bats three zero way to average nine
• 1:13:10
  Speaker 2: eighteen ops eight six strikeout walker SiO so Lay he
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 2: has struggled against the Reds. He's actually faced them twice
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 2: this year, once on the road, once at home, and
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 2: he wasn't particularly good in either outing, so his matchup
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 2: might be a little bit of an issue there. Although
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 2: when I first looked at this, I was thinking, you know,
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 2: you have the better of the home road splits here,
• 1:13:31
  Speaker 2: like possibly a first five under made some sense there
• 1:13:36
  Speaker 2: By the way it looks like Hunter Green didn't pitch well,
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 2: I guess it's a good thing I didn't give out
• 1:13:39
  Speaker 2: Cincinnati in the first five. I was considering it. Maybe
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 2: we'll be able to back Green in the future and
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 2: find some value there. But anyway, I was thinking first
• 1:13:50
  Speaker 2: five under in this game made some sense. Cincinnati and
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 2: Saint Louis here eight and a half is the full game.
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 2: I wouldn't trust the bullpens, but we have sixty one
• 1:13:58
  Speaker 2: percent of tickets ninety one percent of the cash on
• 1:13:59
  Speaker 2: the under. You get the better of the home road
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 2: Split's the first five undermakes some sense, but I think
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 2: my preference would be Cincinnati in the first five here,
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 2: bouncing back after getting shut out yesterday. Abbott has the
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 2: better matchup numbers here, and I think he's the better
• 1:14:14
  Speaker 2: pitcher overlay he so I think that might be the
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 2: way to go. And you get Cincinnati as an underdog,
• 1:14:19
  Speaker 2: it'll probably be slighter in the first five, but still
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 2: Saint Louis full game is minus one thirty something. You'll
• 1:14:25
  Speaker 2: probably still get Cincinnati as an underdog in the first five,
• 1:14:28
  Speaker 2: and the money agrees with this. Saint Louis seventy two
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 2: percent of the tickets, sixty nine percent of the cash
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 2: on Cincinnati. I think that's probably the way to go
• 1:14:35
  Speaker 2: first five. If you get Cincinnati as a dog and
• 1:14:38
  Speaker 2: you're getting probably the better starter, seems like that probably
• 1:14:42
  Speaker 2: is the best way to play that game. Cincinnati first
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 2: five money line, next game up. If you couldn't have guessed,
• 1:14:49
  Speaker 2: if you didn't guess that already, this is gonna be
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 2: my last play. Seattle in Texas. And yes, I know
• 1:14:59
  Speaker 2: I'm doing this again and things have not worked out
• 1:15:01
  Speaker 2: recently trying to go with these unders in Texas recently.
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 2: But that's what we're doing here under seven Seattle, Texas.
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 2: I think we have a very good pitching matchup here.
• 1:15:10
  Speaker 2: We're still taking advantage of what is a typically pitcher
• 1:15:13
  Speaker 2: friendly ballpark here in Texas. Texas just typically plays low
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 2: scoring games here. They don't hit as well here, they
• 1:15:19
  Speaker 2: pitch better here. I think we got two really good
• 1:15:22
  Speaker 2: starting pitchers here. Like I said, so I like this
• 1:15:25
  Speaker 2: to go under. You're right on that key number seven.
• 1:15:27
  Speaker 2: I found it even money out there, and there were
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 2: some seven and a half so you had to pay
• 1:15:31
  Speaker 2: like minus one thirty four. It basically, if you find
• 1:15:34
  Speaker 2: like minus one twenty something, you know, maybe it's worth
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 2: getting the hook there under seven and a half. But
• 1:15:41
  Speaker 2: I'll just go I'll go under seven at least for now. Actually,
• 1:15:43
  Speaker 2: let me look, let me see if there's a better
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 2: number on the seven and a half here right now.
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 2: Probably there's not going to be, but let me check.
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 2: I see minus one twenty four at FD. I'm just
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 2: gonna stick with the seven. I mean, I don't know,
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 2: I mean sometimes I will go up to about minus
• 1:16:06
  Speaker 2: one twenty five, but I don't know. I might cut
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 2: it off at minus one twenty here for that. You know.
• 1:16:11
  Speaker 2: Of course, if it lands exactly, seven will push, and
• 1:16:15
  Speaker 2: it is possible because seven is the key number here.
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 2: But I like the starting pitching here. We're gonna keep
• 1:16:20
  Speaker 2: the bullpens in even though Texas has struggled recently, but
• 1:16:23
  Speaker 2: they're pretty rested here and their better at relievers are
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 2: all available here today. They only use two guys yesterday,
• 1:16:29
  Speaker 2: so I think we can back the bullpens here. Seattle
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 2: used two guys as well. Plus we're also banking on
• 1:16:34
  Speaker 2: the starters to go deeper into this game than the
• 1:16:37
  Speaker 2: first five innings, kind of rescue the bullpens a little bit.
• 1:16:40
  Speaker 2: Seattle didn't use anybody that good out of the bullpens
• 1:16:42
  Speaker 2: yesterday either, so I think the bullpens are ready to
• 1:16:46
  Speaker 2: go here. Texas won the game seven to one yesterday.
• 1:16:49
  Speaker 2: They've actually they're on the verge of sweeping the series,
• 1:16:52
  Speaker 2: by the way, so Seattle might be a little extra
• 1:16:54
  Speaker 2: motivated here because they've fallen two and a half games
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 2: behind Texas. Now, Texas leading the division's probably gonna be
• 1:17:00
  Speaker 2: a little bit extra motivated here Texas. I don't know
• 1:17:02
  Speaker 2: if they're gonna be looking ahead though to Tampa Bay.
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 2: But I think Seattle might have a little bit of extra
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 2: motivation here just because they've fallen behind and they are
• 1:17:11
  Speaker 2: on the version of the sweep here. But anyway, I
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 2: think both bullpens should be gained for this. I mean,
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 2: the better relievers didn't come into the game yesterday. Texas
• 1:17:20
  Speaker 2: has been a good bullpen recently. I just don't know
• 1:17:23
  Speaker 2: what's happening to them recently. They've been a good bullpen
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 2: in the recent years, I should say, but right now
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 2: they've fallen to sixteenth. But I'm still willing to back
• 1:17:31
  Speaker 2: both bullpens here. I also think Seattle's is good. They're twelve,
• 1:17:35
  Speaker 2: so I think we can overcome the bullpens here hopefully
• 1:17:38
  Speaker 2: and hopefully they don't have to pitch that much and
• 1:17:40
  Speaker 2: the better relievers arrested today. Offensively, Texas has actually been
• 1:17:45
  Speaker 2: better fourteenth tied with the Giants. Still, I don't think
• 1:17:48
  Speaker 2: the Giants are really that good. I'm not really sure
• 1:17:50
  Speaker 2: Texas is that good either. Seattle has been a big
• 1:17:52
  Speaker 2: problem though. Like I said, they're twenty seventh, tied with
• 1:17:55
  Speaker 2: Cleveland and the Mets. If that's the case, you know
• 1:17:57
  Speaker 2: you're not doing something right offensively. So Seattle's offense has
• 1:18:01
  Speaker 2: really struggled. But look at the starting pitching here, man,
• 1:18:04
  Speaker 2: and you could go first five with this two, but
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 2: you're gonna be looking at like three three and a half,
• 1:18:09
  Speaker 2: which I don't really love. So I'd rather be on
• 1:18:11
  Speaker 2: the key number in the full game when you at
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 2: least have bullpens in ourn't total disasters here, but yeah,
• 1:18:16
  Speaker 2: we're gonna back both pitchers here. Logan Gilbert pitching for
• 1:18:19
  Speaker 2: the Mariners. He's been good three point three eighty RA
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 2: point nine to eight WHIP. He's started to pitch better
• 1:18:25
  Speaker 2: at home finally, which was expected. But he's been good
• 1:18:27
  Speaker 2: on the road all season two point two to three
• 1:18:30
  Speaker 2: ROADI al right, so we could definitely back him on
• 1:18:32
  Speaker 2: the road. He's pitching well recently, really good command numbers recently,
• 1:18:36
  Speaker 2: high strikeout rate, low walk rate. He's going deep into
• 1:18:39
  Speaker 2: his outings. He's got at least six and a third
• 1:18:40
  Speaker 2: or at least six innings excuse me, in every outing
• 1:18:43
  Speaker 2: for his last seven outings, so he is going pretty
• 1:18:46
  Speaker 2: deep into some of these games. He's got a low
• 1:18:48
  Speaker 2: hit rate, low walk rate, high strikeout rate, good numbers
• 1:18:52
  Speaker 2: across the board here. Did pitch against Texas twice this season,
• 1:18:56
  Speaker 2: early in April, and he was pretty good in both
• 1:18:58
  Speaker 2: those outings. He went eleven and a third innings total
• 1:19:01
  Speaker 2: and allow of four total runs there and had twelve
• 1:19:04
  Speaker 2: strikeouts and one walk, So yeah, his command was on
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 2: point there. A lot of few, too many hits there
• 1:19:11
  Speaker 2: about whatever. I mean, he pitched pretty well, and he's
• 1:19:13
  Speaker 2: good against sexast generally one hundred and twenty at bats,
• 1:19:17
  Speaker 2: so even though they're really familiar with him, they really
• 1:19:18
  Speaker 2: have not done well against him. Two seventeen average, six
• 1:19:22
  Speaker 2: pot two ops, thirty eight to seven at strikeout walk ratio,
• 1:19:25
  Speaker 2: So yeah, Gilbert has got good numbers against them. Texas
• 1:19:29
  Speaker 2: is going with Jacob de Gram. He's still solid man,
• 1:19:32
  Speaker 2: even though he's an old man at this point. He's
• 1:19:34
  Speaker 2: pitching well. A three point seven six ERA, one point
• 1:19:37
  Speaker 2: zero five whip. He's been better at home three point
• 1:19:40
  Speaker 2: one six homy ra with a sub two hundred opponent
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 2: batting average at home. Struggled a bit in his last
• 1:19:45
  Speaker 2: downing against the White Sox, but he still had good
• 1:19:47
  Speaker 2: command numbers there, So I'm going to consider that to
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 2: be a little bit more of an outlier. The last
• 1:19:51
  Speaker 2: time he did something similar to that, he bounced back
• 1:19:53
  Speaker 2: and pitched well the next time against Miami, even though
• 1:19:56
  Speaker 2: he'd actually thrown over one hundred pitches in the bad
• 1:20:00
  Speaker 2: start against the Podres and still bounce back fine, So
• 1:20:03
  Speaker 2: I'm fine with the going with him here. He did
• 1:20:05
  Speaker 2: face Seattle twice as well early in April. He only
• 1:20:09
  Speaker 2: went nine innings across those two starts, but he only
• 1:20:11
  Speaker 2: allowed five hits in one run across that entire span
• 1:20:15
  Speaker 2: and had a nine strike ups and three walks, so
• 1:20:18
  Speaker 2: he's still pitched pretty well in both those outings. His
• 1:20:21
  Speaker 2: team won both of them. They're both low scoring too.
• 1:20:24
  Speaker 2: He's got a low hit rate, low walk rate, high
• 1:20:26
  Speaker 2: strikeout rate, so he's got all good numbers across the
• 1:20:29
  Speaker 2: board as well. And yeah, as you could guess, he's
• 1:20:31
  Speaker 2: been pretty good against Seattle. Just the ops is a
• 1:20:34
  Speaker 2: little bit high because they have some power off him.
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 2: But other than Mitch Garver who's two for two with
• 1:20:39
  Speaker 2: two of them runs, there wasn't really anybody in this
• 1:20:41
  Speaker 2: line that really except for I guess Julio Rodriguez has
• 1:20:45
  Speaker 2: done some damage here. But other than that nobody else
• 1:20:47
  Speaker 2: really has ninety nine at bats two twenty two average
• 1:20:50
  Speaker 2: very low there. Seven to twenty seven ops is still
• 1:20:53
  Speaker 2: below that seven to fifty threshold thirty three to thirteen
• 1:20:57
  Speaker 2: strike up walk ratio. I mean, that's not that good
• 1:20:59
  Speaker 2: of a ratio, but still his numbers are pretty good
• 1:21:01
  Speaker 2: here across the board. I expect good pitching in this game,
• 1:21:05
  Speaker 2: and the money seems to agree with me. Here. We
• 1:21:06
  Speaker 2: have eighty one percent of the tickets on the over,
• 1:21:09
  Speaker 2: because I think the public just kind of thinks, well,
• 1:21:13
  Speaker 2: you know, seven's a low number, and they just have
• 1:21:16
  Speaker 2: a tendency and not want to go under that really
• 1:21:18
  Speaker 2: low number, but we're gonna do it. And the money agrees.
• 1:21:21
  Speaker 2: Fifty six percent of the cash on the under. So
• 1:21:23
  Speaker 2: the money does agree with this, and the money's also
• 1:21:25
  Speaker 2: agreeing with Seattle. I don't disagree with that. Gilbert has
• 1:21:28
  Speaker 2: the better of the matchup numbers, Seattle has the better bullpen,
• 1:21:31
  Speaker 2: and Seattle's got the motivation here, so I also do
• 1:21:34
  Speaker 2: agree with Seattle. I have fifty five percent of tickets
• 1:21:36
  Speaker 2: on Texas, eighty four percent of the cash on Seattle.
• 1:21:39
  Speaker 2: It's like a pick em price there. I think Seattle
• 1:21:42
  Speaker 2: might still be the better team even though they're behind Texas.
• 1:21:45
  Speaker 2: I mean the standings seattle to me at some point,
• 1:21:50
  Speaker 2: just the talent level they have. At some point it's
• 1:21:52
  Speaker 2: going to turn around. Like WU is not going to
• 1:21:54
  Speaker 2: continue to be this bad. He was bad again yesterday.
• 1:21:57
  Speaker 2: But I don't know. I don't know what's going on
• 1:21:59
  Speaker 2: with WU and road struggles. But whatever, we don't have
• 1:22:01
  Speaker 2: to worry about WU here though. We're going with Gilbert,
• 1:22:04
  Speaker 2: so under is my play in that game though, But yes,
• 1:22:07
  Speaker 2: I lean Seattle as well Anaheim and San Francisco. Anaheim
• 1:22:13
  Speaker 2: is trying to avoid getting swept here. San Francisco's put
• 1:22:15
  Speaker 2: up some offense here. And I made a mistake. I
• 1:22:17
  Speaker 2: said that it was a walk off double for Devers
• 1:22:20
  Speaker 2: the other day. It was actually a single because it
• 1:22:22
  Speaker 2: was originally ruled a ground rule double, and then I
• 1:22:25
  Speaker 2: don't know what there was. There was some replay review.
• 1:22:28
  Speaker 2: It doesn't even really matter. I mean, it was gonna
• 1:22:30
  Speaker 2: be a walk off RBI either way. It's just the
• 1:22:32
  Speaker 2: ground rule double would have scored two runs, but like
• 1:22:35
  Speaker 2: who cares it was instead it was in the ballpark,
• 1:22:38
  Speaker 2: so it wound up being ruled a single in one
• 1:22:40
  Speaker 2: run scored, but I don't know. It was kind of weird.
• 1:22:43
  Speaker 2: But whatever, San Francisco's on the verge of sweep peer.
• 1:22:47
  Speaker 2: They're playing Milwaukee next. They might look ahead to that,
• 1:22:50
  Speaker 2: and that's a pretty big series against Milwaukee, so San
• 1:22:52
  Speaker 2: Francisco might start looking ahead. So I think the situation
• 1:22:56
  Speaker 2: to me favors Anaheim here, but you can't really back
• 1:22:58
  Speaker 2: Anaheim's bullpen. They're not really that good. Anaheim only us
• 1:23:02
  Speaker 2: two guys yes today out of the bullpen, but the Giants,
• 1:23:04
  Speaker 2: I think do have the better bullpen, even though they
• 1:23:06
  Speaker 2: haven't been that good this year. They use two guys
• 1:23:09
  Speaker 2: as well. Giants are twenty third. Angels are actually twenty
• 1:23:12
  Speaker 2: first and actually have a better bullpen e Ray, but
• 1:23:15
  Speaker 2: I don't really trust that number. I still think the
• 1:23:18
  Speaker 2: Giants probably have the slightly better bullpen. Giants have had
• 1:23:21
  Speaker 2: the better offense. They're fourteenth, like I said, tie with
• 1:23:24
  Speaker 2: the Rangers. Angels are twenty third. I don't think either
• 1:23:27
  Speaker 2: offense is really that good, and this is more of
• 1:23:30
  Speaker 2: a pitcher friendly ballpark. But I think you get back
• 1:23:33
  Speaker 2: Anaheim in the first five here because you're getting Jose
• 1:23:35
  Speaker 2: Soriano and he is still one of their better starters,
• 1:23:38
  Speaker 2: even though he has had some issues, but his overall
• 1:23:40
  Speaker 2: numbers are pretty good. Three point four to three ERA,
• 1:23:43
  Speaker 2: one point two to five WHIP just like last year.
• 1:23:45
  Speaker 2: He's better on the road three point one to one
• 1:23:48
  Speaker 2: road ERA, So for whatever reason, he's pitches better on
• 1:23:51
  Speaker 2: the road. But he was good at home last time too.
• 1:23:53
  Speaker 2: He's been pretty good this month. He looks like he's
• 1:23:56
  Speaker 2: in pretty good form right now. Over his last like
• 1:23:59
  Speaker 2: four stars, he's been pretty good. Pretty high strike out
• 1:24:03
  Speaker 2: rate there. Strike gout rate on the season is fairly high.
• 1:24:05
  Speaker 2: Hit rate is low. His problem is the walks. He's
• 1:24:08
  Speaker 2: just way too wild. He's got a very high walk rate.
• 1:24:11
  Speaker 2: He's got to get that under control. Literally, but he
• 1:24:13
  Speaker 2: induces a lot of ground balls, and really, if he
• 1:24:15
  Speaker 2: stopped walking people, he'd be a very good pitcher. But
• 1:24:18
  Speaker 2: I think he could do it here. Although the Giants
• 1:24:21
  Speaker 2: do have some decent numbers against him, it's only an
• 1:24:24
  Speaker 2: eight at bats and it's only a riaz Ariaz has
• 1:24:27
  Speaker 2: all three hits that the Giants have against them, one
• 1:24:29
  Speaker 2: of them is a double, So they have a three
• 1:24:31
  Speaker 2: seventy five average, one thousand ops, one strikeout, two walks,
• 1:24:35
  Speaker 2: and eight at bats against them between Arias En Devers,
• 1:24:37
  Speaker 2: who does have a couple of walks, but he's unfamiliar
• 1:24:40
  Speaker 2: to the Giants for the most part, so I don't
• 1:24:42
  Speaker 2: think you put much weight into that very small sample size.
• 1:24:45
  Speaker 2: Soriano's good on the road, he's unfamiliar to the Giants.
• 1:24:48
  Speaker 2: He's in decent form right now. I expect Soriano will
• 1:24:51
  Speaker 2: pitch well here and you'll get at least some motivation
• 1:24:54
  Speaker 2: from Anaheim to try to avoid the sweep. The Giants
• 1:24:57
  Speaker 2: are going with Carson wizen Hunting. I don't know exactly
• 1:25:00
  Speaker 2: how they're gonna play this, So if you want to
• 1:25:01
  Speaker 2: play this game, I would probably select Soriano must start,
• 1:25:04
  Speaker 2: but don't pick a Giant starter because they might put
• 1:25:07
  Speaker 2: an opener in front of wizen Hunt. I don't know
• 1:25:09
  Speaker 2: what they're gonna do. Wizen Hunt's still a young pitcher.
• 1:25:12
  Speaker 2: He struggled a bit last year. He made five starts
• 1:25:15
  Speaker 2: last year. They probably won't put an opener in front
• 1:25:17
  Speaker 2: of him, though, because it looks like all seven of
• 1:25:19
  Speaker 2: his appearances he's actually made the start. This year, he's
• 1:25:23
  Speaker 2: made two starts. He's got a three point three eighty
• 1:25:25
  Speaker 2: RA but a one point four to one whip is
• 1:25:27
  Speaker 2: not that good. Hasn't a looted that many runs. He's
• 1:25:30
  Speaker 2: gone at least five innings in each of his starts,
• 1:25:31
  Speaker 2: but he's had issues with command. He's got a six
• 1:25:34
  Speaker 2: to six strikeout walker ratio on ten and two thirds innings.
• 1:25:37
  Speaker 2: That's not good. So he's obviously getting a little bit lucky.
• 1:25:40
  Speaker 2: He's putting too many guys on base. He faces Atlanta
• 1:25:42
  Speaker 2: on the road to Colorado at home, where I don't
• 1:25:47
  Speaker 2: think Colorado hits as well when they're away from cores.
• 1:25:49
  Speaker 2: That's typically the case, So I don't know what to
• 1:25:52
  Speaker 2: put into those I don't know how much weight to
• 1:25:54
  Speaker 2: put into those games. Really. Wizen Hunt does have unfamiliarity
• 1:25:58
  Speaker 2: here against the Angels. They haven't seen him before, but
• 1:26:00
  Speaker 2: I don't know that that's really gonna be enough. I
• 1:26:02
  Speaker 2: think he's not as good as a Zra makes him look.
• 1:26:05
  Speaker 2: So I'm gonna lean towards Anaheim in the first five here.
• 1:26:08
  Speaker 2: That's the way I would play this. I would back
• 1:26:10
  Speaker 2: Soriano and get the motivational edge from Anaheim, trying to
• 1:26:14
  Speaker 2: avoid the sweep but avoid their bullpen. Sixty percent of
• 1:26:17
  Speaker 2: tickets around the Giants, so the Giants are actually public.
• 1:26:20
  Speaker 2: That's crazy because the Giants have a bad record, so
• 1:26:23
  Speaker 2: they're not gonna be public very often. But they are
• 1:26:25
  Speaker 2: here because Anaheim is a very weak team. But fifty
• 1:26:28
  Speaker 2: percent of the cash on Anaheim, I think that's the
• 1:26:30
  Speaker 2: way to look here. You're gonna get them. Probably you're
• 1:26:32
  Speaker 2: gonna have to pay a favorite price for them in
• 1:26:34
  Speaker 2: the first five, but it's gonna be pretty cheap. Nonetheless,
• 1:26:38
  Speaker 2: the line on the full game is around to pick them,
• 1:26:40
  Speaker 2: and the money is playing the over eight and a
• 1:26:42
  Speaker 2: half as well. I don't really have a good feel
• 1:26:44
  Speaker 2: for the total there, but yeah, I think Anaheim in
• 1:26:47
  Speaker 2: the first five makes the most sense. And then the
• 1:26:49
  Speaker 2: night game NBC and Peacock, Yankees and Phillies. I thought
• 1:26:53
  Speaker 2: yesterday's game would be higher scoring. Weathers actually pitched really
• 1:26:56
  Speaker 2: well for the Yankees yesterday. Philly is trying to avoid
• 1:26:59
  Speaker 2: the sweep and they should win this game, but they're
• 1:27:02
  Speaker 2: favored by quite a bit here. Philly has one of
• 1:27:05
  Speaker 2: their best starters on the mound here today. Of course,
• 1:27:07
  Speaker 2: they've lost four games in a row. This has been
• 1:27:09
  Speaker 2: a very low scoring series here, which you think would
• 1:27:12
  Speaker 2: play into Phillies' hands a little bit because one of
• 1:27:14
  Speaker 2: the biggest advantages the Yankees should have here is their offense,
• 1:27:17
  Speaker 2: but their offense has struggled recently. Yankees did use their
• 1:27:20
  Speaker 2: closer yesterday. They used three guys yesterday. Philly's bullpen is
• 1:27:24
  Speaker 2: nowhere near as good, though, and they use six guys
• 1:27:26
  Speaker 2: out of the bullpens. That's not great for Philly here.
• 1:27:29
  Speaker 2: They went basically with a bullpen game yesterday, I'm pretty sure,
• 1:27:33
  Speaker 2: so that's really not good, although they somehow stifled the
• 1:27:37
  Speaker 2: Yankees still and held them to one run pretty deep
• 1:27:39
  Speaker 2: into the game yesterday. Yankees have the best bullpen era
• 1:27:43
  Speaker 2: in baseball. They ranked third in whip right now, so
• 1:27:46
  Speaker 2: they're a good bullpen. Phillies are not. Phillies are twentieth
• 1:27:49
  Speaker 2: and they're less rested. The Yankees do have a better uh,
• 1:27:52
  Speaker 2: they have a bullpen advantage here for sure. Yankees still
• 1:27:55
  Speaker 2: have an offensive edge. They're ninth right now, tied with
• 1:27:58
  Speaker 2: Miami not playing well right now. Philly is better at
• 1:28:01
  Speaker 2: home offensively, but there's still twenty fourth, so there is
• 1:28:03
  Speaker 2: still an advantage there to the Yankees, but the pitching
• 1:28:06
  Speaker 2: is a big edge towards Philly here. Yankees are going
• 1:28:09
  Speaker 2: with Will Warren, who was supposed to start the other day.
• 1:28:12
  Speaker 2: He's not awful, but he's the lesser of the two
• 1:28:15
  Speaker 2: pitchers here. He's got a four ERA one point three
• 1:28:17
  Speaker 2: to seven whip isn't that great. He is a bit
• 1:28:19
  Speaker 2: worse on the road four point two four road ERA.
• 1:28:23
  Speaker 2: Only pitch a two thirds of an inning last time
• 1:28:25
  Speaker 2: out against Pittsburgh. That might have been a relief appearance.
• 1:28:28
  Speaker 2: I'm not sure what that was. It was only four
• 1:28:30
  Speaker 2: days ago, so he's kind of on shorter rest here.
• 1:28:33
  Speaker 2: His hit rate is a little bit high here, as
• 1:28:35
  Speaker 2: walk rate's okay. Strike out rate is decent, So yeah,
• 1:28:38
  Speaker 2: I mean he's got some decent numbers, mediocre numbers up Philadelphia.
• 1:28:43
  Speaker 2: Their numbers against him are pretty much average thirty one
• 1:28:46
  Speaker 2: at best two fifty eight average seven to forty eight ohps,
• 1:28:49
  Speaker 2: which is right around that seven point fifty threshold there.
• 1:28:52
  Speaker 2: So he doesn't really have the upper hand over Philly.
• 1:28:54
  Speaker 2: Philly doesn't really have the upper hand over him either.
• 1:28:57
  Speaker 2: Ten strikeouts five walks is not a good ratio. But
• 1:28:59
  Speaker 2: war And is gonna have to match up against Christopher Sanchez,
• 1:29:02
  Speaker 2: and like I've been saying, Phillies when they have Sanchez,
• 1:29:06
  Speaker 2: Wheeler or Lozardo on the mountel. I know the Yankees
• 1:29:09
  Speaker 2: were able to beat lozarda with Schlitler the other day.
• 1:29:11
  Speaker 2: But when the Phillies have one of those three guys
• 1:29:13
  Speaker 2: on the mound, their record is very very positive, so
• 1:29:17
  Speaker 2: they win most of those games. Although as I did
• 1:29:19
  Speaker 2: point out both yesterday and the day before that, the
• 1:29:22
  Speaker 2: Yankees have a much better run differential than Philly does. Here,
• 1:29:25
  Speaker 2: Philly's got a negative run differential, so they're not as
• 1:29:28
  Speaker 2: good as the record looks. And maybe they're favored by
• 1:29:31
  Speaker 2: too much here, But I would not really want to
• 1:29:33
  Speaker 2: play the Yankees here. I think the Philly should have
• 1:29:36
  Speaker 2: the motivational ledge to try to avoid the sweep at home.
• 1:29:38
  Speaker 2: Here they're you know, they should be favored at the
• 1:29:41
  Speaker 2: very least, and they have the better starter here in Sanchez,
• 1:29:44
  Speaker 2: who's in the cy young running obviously two point six
• 1:29:47
  Speaker 2: five RRA one point one to nine whip. Sanchez has
• 1:29:50
  Speaker 2: been really good at home one point zero three e
• 1:29:53
  Speaker 2: RA at home, with a lower than two hundred batting
• 1:29:55
  Speaker 2: average at home, he was pitching kind of poorly recently,
• 1:29:59
  Speaker 2: had one really starting against Kansas City, but he was
• 1:30:01
  Speaker 2: pretty good after that. Against Detroit, he was bad in
• 1:30:04
  Speaker 2: the All Star Game. But the All Star Game is meaningless, dude,
• 1:30:06
  Speaker 2: so I kind of just throw that out. And then
• 1:30:08
  Speaker 2: coming out of that, he had a tough matchup against
• 1:30:11
  Speaker 2: the Dodgers, and it looks like he didn't do well
• 1:30:13
  Speaker 2: because it was a high scoring game. But he bitched
• 1:30:15
  Speaker 2: pretty well in that one. The fielding wasn't very good
• 1:30:17
  Speaker 2: behind him. You only allowed touring runs though, had seven strikeouts,
• 1:30:20
  Speaker 2: no walks, and against any lead offense like the Dodgers. Yeah,
• 1:30:24
  Speaker 2: that tells me that Sanchez is he's coming back into
• 1:30:27
  Speaker 2: form here, man. I mean, I don't think it's really
• 1:30:29
  Speaker 2: much of a problem. His hit rate is a little
• 1:30:32
  Speaker 2: bit too high though, believe it or not, more than
• 1:30:34
  Speaker 2: one per inning. His walk rate is low tho on
• 1:30:37
  Speaker 2: and that's been kind of an issue of his in
• 1:30:38
  Speaker 2: the past. But he's got his control really under wraps here.
• 1:30:42
  Speaker 2: And his strikeout rate is pretty high too, So those
• 1:30:45
  Speaker 2: numbers are good. Numbers against the Yankees are pretty good here.
• 1:30:48
  Speaker 2: In forty five at bats, they have a two hundred
• 1:30:50
  Speaker 2: average five p fifty four ohps against him, twelve to
• 1:30:53
  Speaker 2: four strikeout walk ratio, so his numbers pretty good there.
• 1:30:56
  Speaker 2: Against the Yankees. He's the better starter there. The problem
• 1:31:00
  Speaker 2: is the price is pretty up there, man. I mean,
• 1:31:03
  Speaker 2: this is probably the biggest underdog price you're gonna see
• 1:31:05
  Speaker 2: on the Yankees, like all season. Uh, Philadelphia is minus
• 1:31:09
  Speaker 2: one ninety almost here, minus one eighties. You're never gonna
• 1:31:13
  Speaker 2: see the Yankees are that big of an underdog price,
• 1:31:16
  Speaker 2: and Philly is still public seventy two the tickets, seventy
• 1:31:19
  Speaker 2: eight percent of the cash on them. Although, as I
• 1:31:21
  Speaker 2: was just saying, though, I would not want to play
• 1:31:23
  Speaker 2: the Yankees here though Philly is at home trying to
• 1:31:26
  Speaker 2: avoid the sweep. The one thing you do have going
• 1:31:28
  Speaker 2: for the Yankees is the price is very high on Philly,
• 1:31:31
  Speaker 2: and the Yankees are probably the better overall team with
• 1:31:35
  Speaker 2: the better bullpen and hittings. That's really what you have
• 1:31:37
  Speaker 2: going if you want to play the Yankees here, But
• 1:31:38
  Speaker 2: I don't think I would. I think you have the
• 1:31:40
  Speaker 2: better starting pitching obviously here, and you have the motivational
• 1:31:44
  Speaker 2: edge for Philly. I think if you're gonna play this game,
• 1:31:46
  Speaker 2: I think you lay the run line with Philly in
• 1:31:49
  Speaker 2: the first five. I think that's the way I would play.
• 1:31:51
  Speaker 2: Just take advantage of the starting pitching matchup and lay
• 1:31:54
  Speaker 2: I don't know what the price is gonna be on it.
• 1:31:55
  Speaker 2: Think you might have to lay like one run in
• 1:31:58
  Speaker 2: the first five and then if they're up one you'll push.
• 1:32:01
  Speaker 2: At least that might be the way to do it.
• 1:32:03
  Speaker 2: It seems a little dangerous, though, it's still gonna be
• 1:32:06
  Speaker 2: a bit of a high price, So I think that's
• 1:32:07
  Speaker 2: what I would do, and the money's playing the over eight.
• 1:32:10
  Speaker 2: Hear no good field for me on the total there.
• 1:32:13
  Speaker 2: This is gonna be the night game. A lot of times,
• 1:32:15
  Speaker 2: the home team is more motivated in these you know,
• 1:32:18
  Speaker 2: national TV night games or whatever you want to call it.
• 1:32:20
  Speaker 2: It's not an ESPN game anymore. It's peacock. But yeah,
• 1:32:24
  Speaker 2: I'm I think Philly should be the more motivated, motivated
• 1:32:28
  Speaker 2: team here and have the starting pitching edge. Although if
• 1:32:30
  Speaker 2: you're gonna play them in the first five, the price
• 1:32:32
  Speaker 2: is gonna be even higher than what it is in
• 1:32:35
  Speaker 2: the full game, So it's a bit concerning. But I think,
• 1:32:38
  Speaker 2: you know, if I had any lean on that game
• 1:32:40
  Speaker 2: at all, it would be some sort of Philadelphia first
• 1:32:42
  Speaker 2: five play there. Anyway that's gonna do it. My players
• 1:32:46
  Speaker 2: today are two unders with low totals here. One is Cleveland,
• 1:32:49
  Speaker 2: Tampa Bay under seven. We're gonna play Pittsburgh Pirates in
• 1:32:53
  Speaker 2: the first five, laying the half run to get that
• 1:32:56
  Speaker 2: price down. I think they have the edge there, motivational
• 1:32:59
  Speaker 2: andtch up. And then we have another under, like I said,
• 1:33:02
  Speaker 2: another low total under seven in Seattle, Texas. That's gonna
• 1:33:06
  Speaker 2: do it. Learn it tone on Twitter, learn it tone
• 1:33:09
  Speaker 2: on Instagram, like subscribe to the channel here, let's boost
• 1:33:12
  Speaker 2: this thing up. We cross five hundred. We need to
• 1:33:14
  Speaker 2: get to a thousand, man, so I can really start
• 1:33:16
  Speaker 2: getting some ad revenue and stuff. Here, let's do it.
• 1:33:19
  Speaker 2: I listen on audio, Apple, Spotify, Spreaker. That all helps
• 1:33:22
  Speaker 2: as well. There are ads over there for some revenue
• 1:33:25
  Speaker 2: as well. Covered in You is my uke cover channel
• 1:33:28
  Speaker 2: on YouTube. You can check that out Padreon dot com,
• 1:33:30
  Speaker 2: Slash learn a toad if you want to support me
• 1:33:32
  Speaker 2: that way. Loser Cast every Tuesday night, and the New
• 1:33:35
  Speaker 2: York Giants g spot podcast. Happy Sunday everyone. Monday, we'll
• 1:33:41
  Speaker 2: have a little bit of a shorter border though there
• 1:33:42
  Speaker 2: is still a decent amount of baseball, and then WNBA
• 1:33:45
  Speaker 2: will come back on Tuesday. The All Star Game for
• 1:33:50
  Speaker 2: WNBA was yesterday. I know it was some high scoring
• 1:33:53
  Speaker 2: boring bullshit. I know. I saw one clip where Asia
• 1:33:56
  Speaker 2: Wilson didn't even have to try and just just stuffed
• 1:33:59
  Speaker 2: Angel Like Angel Reese tried to go up and shoot
• 1:34:03
  Speaker 2: over her and against her. Asil Wilson didn't even try.
• 1:34:05
  Speaker 2: She was just like whatever, rejected and then just started
• 1:34:08
  Speaker 2: laughing like man, Angel Reese. Yeah, I mean she is
• 1:34:13
  Speaker 2: not a good offensive player. I'll tell you that much.
• 1:34:16
  Speaker 2: Asiel Wilson is one of the best players in the WNBA.
• 1:34:19
  Speaker 2: But it's WNBA. No one cares. That's gonna do it?
• 1:34:23
  Speaker 2: NA could do? What's up? Yeah, I am in the
• 1:34:25
  Speaker 2: middle of trying to catch up on Bob's Burger's here.
• 1:34:28
  Speaker 2: They should never have a fire, Jimmy Pesto. It's getting
• 1:34:31
  Speaker 2: a little bit worse. But I like the show in general,
• 1:34:33
  Speaker 2: and I like John Benjamin. I think he's a very
• 1:34:35
  Speaker 2: good voice actor. Show's still generally pretty funny. That's gonna
• 1:34:39
  Speaker 2: do it, piece everyone.
• 1:34:45
  Speaker 1: If the docs starts talking, hand me the phone, that's somebody,
• 1:34:51
  Speaker 1: and so that somebody.
• 1:34:53
  Speaker 4: Know you do not have to lose this round. Hold on,
• 1:35:04
  Speaker 4: hold on, nothing nice not now, hold on, hold on,
• 1:35:15
  Speaker 4: let me pull You are that bad luck by time.
• 1:35:23
  Speaker 4: But it don't get the crown. Hold On, hold on,
• 1:35:32
  Speaker 4: stay with me now, hold on, hold on, you're still here.
• 1:36:00
  Speaker 3: Ab