Latest / The Follio Property Podcast / Lending Data Reveals What Banks Don't Want You to Know | Property Market Analysis
Transcript
- 0:00Lachlan, big surprise with some of these data.
- 0:02Special episode today.
- 0:04Mate, I'm in shock.
- 0:05Some of these figures, I think a lot of people will be surprised.
- 0:09So we've recently had a cash rate held this week and then today we've just had numbers coming out from a lending perspective, which is investor split into owner-occupied lending.
- 0:18And some of these figures will differ from what some of the banks have been telling us over the last couple of weeks.
- 0:23We're also going to look at migration, which is a big impact on demand factor, looking at overseas and interstate migration.
- 0:29I honestly think with these figures, you're looking at a bit of a change in the landscape in terms of what everyone's been saying in the marketplace.
- 0:39You're listening to the Folio Property Podcast.
- 0:41I'm Rhys Bettle.
- 0:42I'm here each week, for the third time this week, actually, Lachlan, with Lachlan Delahunty.
- 0:47You're keeping me busy, Rhys.
- 0:49There's a lot happening.
- 0:50This is a live episode.
- 0:51So if we do make any mistakes, excuses, there's no editing in this.
- 0:54This is hot off the press, lending data, migration data.
- 0:57We've just got to...
- 0:58Absolutely.
- 0:59Let's kickstart with what you've just said there, right?
- 1:01Lending data.
- 1:02Now, for those that aren't aware of how the ABS data system works is it is produced quarterly.
- 1:07So, this is up until June.
- 1:09Now, figures from that, there's been a fall in 5.4% in volume, 5.2% in value, but volume is probably the one we'll look at here.
- 1:18And then in terms of investor, that's down 8.6%.
- 1:21So, firstly,
- 1:24What do you think of those figures?
- 1:26Does that surprise you in terms of the drop?
- 1:29Do you think it's going to be more severe or have you got any other commentary regarding what we've just seen off this data set?
- 1:33As we just spoke before we jumped on, I thought it was going to be more significant than that.
- 1:37I thought potentially it could be in line with being another 5% to 7% worse than those figures.
- 1:44But as you've got to be aware, this is a quarterly data set, so that's measuring the
- 1:49April, May and June, we know the budget was middle of May.
- 1:52So it's really probably only reflective of 50% of the downturn that we've seen post-budget.
- 1:57So forecasting race, I think those data sets are going to get a lot worse in the next quarterly update.
- 2:03So that's the one we'll wait for.
- 2:05But to see investor activity down 8%, no surprise, probably on the conservative side, what's interesting is the own occupier and the first-time buyer data.
- 2:16Yeah, well, first home buyer as well, like we did, I didn't single that out in the owner-occupier figures, but that fell 2.9%.
- 2:22Yeah, we've got a government saying that this is going to help first home buyers get into the market, but that's falling, you know, almost a percent a month based on those figures.
- 2:30And like I said, I think that's conservative.
- 2:33That would likely be 5% to 6% when you get a full run in the next quarter.
- 2:38We've seen, and we spoke, probably spoke about it on this week's episode actually as well, but we've definitely highlighted this over the last couple of weeks.
- 2:43Banks are coming out saying, you know, volumes dropping on their books across the board, whether that's investor lending or owner-occupier.
- 2:52Mortgage aggregators, so for those that aren't aware, you know, that they look after a cohort of mortgage brokers, they're saying their figures are down as well.
- 2:59So, you know,
- 3:03distribution, sorry, through the broker distribution channel is down as well.
- 3:07Now, those figures, although are down, the surprising one's first-time buyers, because like you said there, the government scheme was meant to improve that.
- 3:14What do you think, you know, moving in, this is, as you said earlier, this is probably looking at half a month's worth of data post-budget.
- 3:21How are we looking moving into next quarter?
- 3:22Do you think this is going to be a more severe drop moving into the next quarter's figures?
- 3:26I do, because we've seen, and the way we know this is in our weekly insights, Reece, following activity in terms of acquisitions and what's happening with the median house prices across the country.
- 3:37So without a doubt, the next quarter will be more significant.
- 3:41The saving grace was earlier this week.
- 3:43we had a pause in interest rates.
- 3:45So that's an interesting narrative.
- 3:48The US inflation data was released yesterday and it was better than expected.
- 3:53So for those that don't know, the US inflation data was surging and we try to keep within a 2% to 3% range.
- 4:02They've got to fix 2% and it's significantly above that and has been for a long time.
- 4:07And
- 4:08almost into the fours, which for America is extremely high.
- 4:11So that has eased and stabilised, which is encouraged for Australia.
- 4:15We're looking for a positive news story.
- 4:17Everyone is reading and being surrounded by negativity.
- 4:21Not that we want to have any bias on, but some of the positive news is that American story.
- 4:27The commentary around the RBA, they left themselves pretty open.
- 4:30What they're waiting to see is the October inflation data because they've left themselves open to get that data and then make a call whether they increase one more rate before the end of the year.
- 4:42When you look into the data sets in terms of where inflation is coming from, what's
- 4:47What's frustrating, Rhys, is that mum and dads and everyday Australians are spending less.
- 4:52If you look at the consumer spending, the discretionary spending, all down.
- 4:59So everyone's playing their part to go, okay, well,
- 5:02We're feeling poorer because our house prices are going down.
- 5:04We have less to spend and we want to control inflation.
- 5:09The things that are increasing are out of the control of everyday Australians.
- 5:13It's the government's involvement.
- 5:15So it's really unfortunate that the Australians are paying the price for what the government are doing when you look at where the inflation story is going.
- 5:24So look, we've seen the figures there from a drop, a decrease, probably not as severe as we thought, but it could be trending even at a further rate considering it's only half a month's worth of data.
- 5:36You're hearing banks come out with reduced lending over the last couple of weeks.
- 5:42Now, all that signals to me actually is they're going to be more aggressive on –
- 5:47on getting that business share back, right?
- 5:49Like if you're a- Change in policy, 40-year loan terms, you'll start to see that, you know, banks need to make a profit, right?
- 5:54They've got shareholders.
- 5:55Yeah.
- 5:56You are going to see a change in policy.
- 5:59Yeah.
- 5:59And I think watch this space over the next couple of weeks on the podcast.
- 6:02Like we've already seen it.
- 6:03I've had a few people reach out to me-
- 6:05Personally, over the last week, one of our colleagues actually went to a bank lender day and there was a lot of lenders saying about stuff that's coming up and it's all going to get a bit more aggressive.
- 6:14Not even necessarily just in the investor space, but if you lose a market share across the board, they've got to be more creative, right?
- 6:21Because they're going backwards.
- 6:24It'll be interesting.
- 6:25Availability debt may become a lot easier over the next six to 12 months than it has been for the last couple of years because it has been getting more restrictive.
- 6:34The other thing that's hot off the press today from the ABS is the updated immigration data.
- 6:38Some figures here might surprise you considering some of the commentary we've been hearing
- 6:43in the Australian meter over the last 6-12 months and then some really loud voices, particularly on the right.
- 6:47Look, we're not a political podcast, but I want to get your view from an economic and potentially a property impact standpoint.
- 6:54So looking at short-term visa arrivals, that's down 9.2% year on year.
- 6:59Short-term residential returns is roughly the same.
- 7:03Total arrivals is down 3.7%.
- 7:06But the interesting one here is there is one that has had an increase over the last year, and that's permanent arrivals.
- 7:12So that's up 7.8% year on year.
- 7:15Talk me through those figures.
- 7:16Is that surprising?
- 7:17You know, we're hearing record high immigration figures across the border over the last 6, 12 months, but now we're starting to see it's dropping overall but actually an increase in permanent arrivals.
- 7:27Yeah, so to summarise that, our permanent arrivals are up, our short-term arrivals are down, and this won't surprise me because we've got a current government that copped,
- 7:36so much backlash about their migration program, essentially letting too many people in, which has been a huge factor that's increased rents, puts pressure on rents, but also has put pressure on prices.
- 7:46And then the story around they're taking jobs, et cetera.
- 7:49What is pleasing here, we know we have-
- 7:53skills shortage across the board, both in the labour markets, but essentially where we're at with our employment, it's very competitive and that's adding to inflation.
- 8:01People don't realise when wages are rising with low unemployment, it puts more pressure on inflation.
- 8:06So we need skilled migration.
- 8:08So to summarise that...
- 8:11Overall, those numbers are good for Australia, in my opinion.
- 8:16And I know there'll be a lot of people out there right wing that'll be like, we don't want migration.
- 8:20Well, we need migration because we've got a huge problem.
- 8:24We've got a shortage of skill sets in our country.
- 8:27And if we are going to deliver more homes, if we're going to advance as a society, we need people to help us to do that.
- 8:33And the beauty and probably what's understated in this migration story is,
- 8:36And I've spoken and been anti the program in the past because I don't think there has been any sort of forward thinking with the amount, the sheer scale and volume and the type of people Australia have been leading into the country.
- 8:50But now with a shift of focus and probably more of a spotlight on the current government to make sure that they are taking due care with the number and the type of skills that we're letting into our country –
- 9:02We get really intelligent people across the world into Australia, and that's what people don't understand.
- 9:07Everyone sort of reverts us and compares us to Europe and I guess the implosion of London, for an example, and how migration arguably hasn't helped that particular city.
- 9:18You've got to understand we get really good migration from some of the most advanced countries in the world, really intelligent people from India, et cetera.
- 9:25So this is a good thing.
- 9:27Permanent skills is what we're in shortage of.
- 9:30We don't want to let...
- 9:32every man and his dog into Australia and just keep putting more pressure on rents and prices and really puts more pressure on the whole inflation story.
- 9:40So that is a pleasing figure and it seems that the spotlight on our current government is starting to work.
- 9:47Awesome.
- 9:48Let's go through Cotality, same day, big day for a lot of- Lots of data.
- 9:52Lots of data.
- 9:54So for us- I'm in my element.
- 9:56This is a really fun day.
- 9:59Cotality, they brought out their lately monthly data pack.
- 10:03Now, what I thought would be interesting, look, I know we talk markets all the time.
- 10:06And I know that's what people love.
- 10:07We love that as well.
- 10:08But I thought this was a fascinating one where they were starting to look at some predictions and some potential downturns on what that's going to look like and what does that bring us back to from a medium house price from a historical standpoint.
- 10:18So just to give people some reference that are listening to this podcast or watching us on this podcast, Sydney market peaked at $1.3 million in January this year.
- 10:28Melbourne peaked at $840K in November 25th.
- 10:32Brisbane, the peak was at 1.1 million in May 26.
- 10:36Adelaide, 9.50 May 26.
- 10:391 million for Perth in May 26.
- 10:41Now, what I want to talk through is Sydney first.
- 10:43So even if a 20% downfall, it would return to May 2021.
- 10:48So still post, like kind of when the post-pandemic era kicked off.
- 10:55Do you, you know, they're doing some forecasts here.
- 10:57I don't think they're necessarily predicting it.
- 10:58Do you see a market like Sydney dropping to those 2021 levels?
- 11:01No.
- 11:02I don't think it will be as significant as that.
- 11:05We're on the path there and if this downturns to play out for another 18 months to two years at the severity that it is now, then we would get there.
- 11:14But I don't think we will see 1.5% price falls in that market for the next 18 months.
- 11:21What about Melbourne, right?
- 11:22So Melbourne here, only if they drop 10%, they're going to be pre-pandemic because they haven't, you know, we've said this a lot in the podcast, anyone who's listening would be following the data throughout the last five, six, seven years where they know it's been a stagnant market.
- 11:35Do you see Melbourne like having a big of an impact across the board like some of these other states might potentially have?
- 11:43See, Melbourne is the exception of all other states because –
- 11:46It's coming.
- 11:47It didn't get the uptick throughout COVID or after COVID, and people fail to remember that.
- 11:52And that's why I see it as such a big opportunity.
- 11:55It isn't coming from, you know, all these other markets had anywhere from, you look at Sydney, 70% growth or 60% growth from pre-COVID until its peak, right through to Perth now, over 100%, Brisbane, nearing on 100%, Adelaide, 90%.
- 12:13Melbourne, 20% up from where it was almost sort of nine, 10 years ago, it's the only market that didn't get the uplift through that COVID and post-COVID period.
- 12:23And yet it's continued to fall in this high interest rate budget environment.
- 12:28So the floor of that market, and this is what I talk about, it arguably can't get any cheaper.
- 12:37And it can't from a replacement cost, right?
- 12:39You buy a piece of land in Melbourne now and you build on it.
- 12:42It is, you know, to do that's far more expensive than what established stock is trading for.
- 12:47So when you look at that element on how to determine value, it can't get cheaper.
- 12:53So I see Melbourne as a market that the cushioning on Melbourne in terms of how far and how aggressive it will fall...
- 13:01will be a much softer lander and probably an extremely quicker response time in terms of when it bounces back and you'll see that capital growth forecast projection.
- 13:12Once the markets move, you'll see Melbourne rebound far quicker than any other market in the country because of that flaw that it's got sitting under it.
- 13:20And it's purely down to affordability rates.
- 13:22People will naturally gravitate from a migration point of view to where it's affordable as long as they have job security.
- 13:28And we know Melbourne...
- 13:30is the biggest jobs market in the country.
- 13:32So I can get a job there, I can get shelter that's cheaper, whether I'm renting or buying, than anywhere else in the country.
- 13:39And then investors start to look into that.
- 13:41So then you've got own occupiers competing with migration from overseas and interstate, competing with the local dynamic.
- 13:49And there's a lot of Melbournians, a lot of
- 13:54abroad and or interstate, post-COVID and during COVID that are now returning for those same fundamentals.
- 14:03A lot of them probably similar ages to ourselves, right?
- 14:06They've gone away.
- 14:07They've come back now.
- 14:08Maybe it's starting to settle down, have kids, want to be close to the family.
- 14:10So we're seeing that play out through the data as well.
- 14:14And verbatimly, I've seen that with a lot of my friends as well.
- 14:17Okay, I want to talk through the two-speed economy and just bunch these guys together.
- 14:21So that's Adelaide, Brisbane and Perth.
- 14:23I want to get your commentary out.
- 14:24I don't know if I'm teeing you up here.
- 14:25So hopefully you take the boat.
- 14:27Now, a 20% decline on Adelaide, Brisbane, it would take them back to 2024 levels, mid 2024.
- 14:3320% for Perth would be April last year.
- 14:36So who is going to get the biggest impact?
- 14:38Like, so I'm thinking here, right?
- 14:40If you bought a property four or five years ago,
- 14:42Yeah, if it did have a severe impact of a 20% decline, yeah, you're going to take a hit, but you're still going to be well up, right?
- 14:49But if you've bought in the last 12 to 18 months, that's probably where you look in a negative equity territory.
- 14:54Yeah, it's funny how you've just said that.
- 14:56If Perth has a 20% market fall, which would be significant, we've never seen that –
- 15:04into a 12-month period in history, right?
- 15:06So it would only return to where it was April last year.
- 15:10So anyone who bought prior to that's still in front.
- 15:12That's an interesting segment.
- 15:13Do I think that's going to happen?
- 15:14No, because you've got to look at the supply and demand imbalance in the markets.
- 15:18And that's why Melbourne's got a cushion under it in terms of how far it can go from an affordability point of view.
- 15:25Perth and Brisbane specifically have a natural flaw in terms of how far they can fall.
- 15:32And I don't believe it's anywhere north of 5%.
- 15:36Honestly, I can't see Perth specifically falling any more than 1% to 2% and Brisbane no more than 3% to 4% purely because of the lack of supply in the market.
- 15:44So supply and demand, demand activities, sales, days on market, yes, that's softened because of sentiment.
- 15:51But there is still...
- 15:53significant undersupply in these markets.
- 15:56Therefore, they will hold their values.
- 15:57They may not increase, but they will hold their values.
- 16:00Adelaide's a slightly different story because you've got negative interstate migration.
- 16:05So your demand is lower in those markets.
- 16:07More supplies come on, particularly in the house and land space.
- 16:10Queensland is also experiencing that.
- 16:12We know there's been a lot of dwelling approvals.
- 16:15It's the highest in the country over
- 16:18A lot of, you know, significantly higher than any other state is Queensland from a new build point of view.
- 16:24But that's why it gives those sort of markets a bit more of a cushion.
- 16:26So no, I don't think it's going to return to a 20% decline.
- 16:31If there was a market that could, and I don't believe it will, Sydney will fall the hardest out of all the capital cities.
- 16:37Well, as we reference declines here, I just want to wrap it up with the cohort in terms of we speak about this quite a bit, cotality, break down the values in the upper quartile, so your more prestige market, your middle values where majority were playing and the lower values, the lower 25%.
- 16:54Now, looking at the last quarter's worth of data up until July, so we're speaking obviously in August, but cotality goes up to July with these figures.
- 17:01Yeah.
- 17:02The prestige markets are clearly taking the biggest hit.
- 17:05So Sydney's down 5.2% on the upper quarter for the quarter.
- 17:08Melbourne, 4.6%.
- 17:09Now you compare that to the lower quarter on those areas, 1.4% and 1.2%.
- 17:14So you're looking at four to five times more of a price drop in the last quarter for the upper market versus the lower affordability market.
- 17:21So there's like – and this is what we talk about, knowing your markets from inside to out, right?
- 17:27You've got capital city data, headline media that will call –
- 17:31price falls and they'll just capture the median house prices, which isn't reflective of what's happening within markets.
- 17:38And we know that certain suburbs, certain price points are moving at different paces.
- 17:44And I haven't seen a market, I don't think since I've been in the game, Rhys, where there's so many different speeds at the moment in different markets across Australia.
- 17:53No market is moving in the same direction.
- 17:56direction and or speed because you could, and people listening to me like, well, that's ridiculous.
- 18:01Every market in the country is going down, you idiot.
- 18:04That's just not correct because there's markets within Melbourne that we know have produced a 9% growth over the last nine months.
- 18:11So we did a suburb spotlight test.
- 18:13You fact-checked me on that to see where they were at and that was nine months ago.
- 18:17Four out of the five suburbs were north of 7% growth that we predicted.
- 18:20So that's data.
- 18:22That's real.
- 18:22That's as of today.
- 18:24Yet the overall market in Melbourne is down somewhere between sort of 3% to 5% depending on which data set you want to look at.
- 18:31So just got to be mindful of that.
- 18:33What about Brisbane and Perth?
- 18:35Adelaide seems to be very – it feels like Brisbane and Perth are now kind of running at a similar trajectory at the moment.
- 18:41So both saw positive growth in the lower quartile over the last quarter.
- 18:47Now, the prestige market, the higher end, both had negative growth.
- 18:51So Brisbane, 1.2% for the quarter, Perth, 0.8%.
- 18:55Just to give people context, it's probably two to three times the negative –
- 19:01the other two to three times negative price direction compared to what the lower quartile, if that makes sense to anyone, what I'm trying to say here is it's two to three times worse.
- 19:10Now, I know Brisbane, we had Josh Coleman on the podcast a couple of months ago talking to us about some concerns in that prestige market in Brisbane.
- 19:19I know you've got your finger on the pulse, particularly in Perth with the golden triangle.
- 19:22Is there, are we starting to see those areas now come down from a price perspective as well on the ground?
- 19:29Not when you're looking at,
- 19:31assets.
- 19:32So within these areas, Prestige Perth, Prestige Brisbane, and really covers all Prestige markets, the sales volumes are a lot less than they are at the lower courtholes, right?
- 19:44So it's almost like a pyramid in comparison.
- 19:46So we're not seeing anecdotally on the ground
- 19:51The same property that traded 12 months ago that trades now is trading for less.
- 19:56If anything, it's going up and going up significantly in Perth, I know, because there was a recent sale that traded 12 months ago and it just sold for 12% more than it did 12 months ago and that was in the $5 million to $10 million range.
- 20:08So that tells us that market...
- 20:10is actually quite strong.
- 20:12And it plays into the fact that the primary place of residence now is a safe haven for a lot of people.
- 20:16It's the best tax environment for a lot of people.
- 20:18So people are spending more on their primary place of residence than they were pre-budget.
- 20:23Brisbane I can talk to that the...
- 20:26prestige downsizer market is hurting.
- 20:28So I know, speaking with some developers and people on the ground there, the off-the-plan sales for downsizer markets, so apartments, luxury apartments, the appetite for that has definitely reduced.
- 20:40There's been a cooling event in that market.
- 20:43So that would suggest that that market specifically could come off during this period and potentially longer term.
- 20:52On the lending data as well, we've got the latest lending data.
- 20:53We spoke about this last month when these figures came out.
- 20:56It doesn't look like there's a whole lot of change.
- 20:57Every sort of market, capital city is seeing a rough, like New South Wales, investors about 30% of the market, South Australia 23%, so even less.
- 21:08Queensland 31%, so roughly about the same.
- 21:10WA 30%.
- 21:11So all those four markets have had some serious growth.
- 21:14Fascinating ones to – I want to get your commentary on before we round it out, Lachlan.
- 21:18Victoria, investors now make 41% of the market for the quarter, which is significantly up from those other three that I mentioned.
- 21:26And then Tasmania is at a whopping 73%.
- 21:28Yeah, so you look at Victoria, it's not what the government wants is more investment activity, but there's no surprise.
- 21:36The reason Tasmania is at 70%, which is a staggering figure and a scary figure, the narrative there is because it's really affordable.
- 21:44And that's, you know, for those listening,
- 21:48I don't advise investing in Tasmania.
- 21:50Just look at the migration figures and there's negative interstate and overseas migration numbers or interstate migrations.
- 21:57More people are leaving Tasmania than are getting there.
- 21:59That is not a good place to park your money.
- 22:02But Victoria makes sense.
- 22:03I don't think we're the only podcast in Australia that shares that sentiment.
- 22:07I think there's naturally a good story around Melbourne, medium to long term.
- 22:12There's a
- 22:14election coming up, you know, only a couple of months away now, Rhys, and there's, you know, odds on favourite that there'll be a new government in place, which is going to potentially be the foundation of a new Victoria, right?
- 22:29And I think that particular market desperately needs a new government.
- 22:33Labor have been in there for now far too long and, you know, I know there's a lot of
- 22:39Not going to get political on the Victorian government on who you should vote for or not, but it's clearly a change is needed.
- 22:44And then Victorians, if you look into the predictions, share that, that they want to change.
- 22:50And that could create a new environment.
- 22:52There's talks about lowering tax rates in terms of land tax, which would make it more advantageous for investors to want to invest there.
- 22:58So there's a lot to look at Melbourne in a positive light.
- 23:02Still got some headwinds.
- 23:03No doubt about it.
- 23:04There's never a perfect market.
- 23:05And the headwinds for Melbourne is that...
- 23:07That election hasn't taken place.
- 23:09So until there's a change of government, it's never done until it's done.
- 23:12We know that.
- 23:12You know, crime is high.
- 23:14They're in still such a bad position financially.
- 23:18So there's still headwinds.
- 23:20But there is more positive news in Melbourne than there was 12 months ago.
- 23:24And I think as we sit here next year, Rhys, you know, we will be talking about –
- 23:31the next era of the Victorian market?
- 23:34If you've made it this far on the podcast, you must be serious about property.
- 23:37And if you're serious about property, we've been talking about our portal prop stack for the last couple of months now, Lachlan.
- 23:43We've rolled out a small pilot, which we're just about to confirm phase two for the pilot.
- 23:47We've been getting inundated with...
- 23:49messages, some getting a bit shirty with us actually.
- 23:52Yeah, sorry if you haven't been onboarded.
- 23:53We just don't want to get you onto the application and have an 8 out of 10 experience.
- 23:58We want to get you there and have a full 10 out of 10 experience.
- 24:00So that wait list has been finalized.
- 24:03So you'll be getting processed over the next sort of four weeks.
- 24:07And we want to onboard you properly, right?
- 24:08We want you to be able to use it like I do.
- 24:10Yeah.
- 24:11I'm not fantastic with the tech, so if I can use it, you can.
- 24:14And honestly, it's been a game changer for me, and I've no doubt it will be for you.
- 24:17And that's it.
- 24:18We're going to roll it out to everyone on the wait list.
- 24:20We've had over a couple of thousand registered for that already.
- 24:23To make sure you reserve a spot for when we start doing the rollouts, there'll be a link in the description to join the wait list.
- 24:29But yeah, we'll hopefully be able to start doing some more episodes on that coming up.
- 24:32So just highlight some of the key data sets we live and breathe every day at Folio.
- 24:37You've been listening to Folio Property Podcast.