Latest / The Chuck ToddCast / Chuck’s Commentary - ALL The Election Indicators Favor Democrats + J.D. Vance Defends The Indefensible

Transcript

Chuck’s Commentary - ALL The Election Indicators Favor Democrats + J.D. Vance Defends The Indefensible · The Chuck ToddCast

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  Speaker 1: This episode of the Chuck Todd cast is brought to
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: you by Chapter. Now, almost everything you hear about Medicare
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: is somebody quietly trying to steer you somewhere. And you're
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: skeptical of that, as you should be. I get it.
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: I mean, there's a federal lawsuit going on right now
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: over exactly this. Companies that branded themselves as unbiased while
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: allegedly pointing people toward whatever would pay them the most
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: as some sort of broker. So if your default is
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: to distrust everyone in this space, honestly, I get it.
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: I'm a bit distrustful these days myself. That's the whole
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: reason I want to tell you about Chapter. They're independent
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  Speaker 1: Medicare advisors whose entire model is that their advisors are
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: not paid to push any one plan. They're just trying
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  Speaker 1: to help. Yes, there's compensation that goes with it. but
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: it's across the board is what they're trying to do.
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: At the end of the day, they're advocating for you.
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: They're not the insurance companies themselves. They're an actual person
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: who actually goes through your doctors, your prescriptions, your needs,
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: and then compares them to every single plan available to
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  Speaker 1: find the best one that will work for you and
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: hopefully save you a couple dollars too. And here's the
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  Speaker 1: part that sets chapter apart. They don't disappear once you've
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  Speaker 1: been in They will keep advocating for you. They're kind
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  Speaker 1: of like almost like a concierge service. You're just there.
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  Speaker 1: I need help. You're like customer service. You know, the plan,
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  Speaker 1: you know, help me navigate this again. So you ever
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  Speaker 1: get hit with a wrongful medical bill, they'll help you
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: fight it. They want to stay an advocate for you
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: even after you've done this. So look, I get it.
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: I think there's all sorts of space. You see a
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: lot of people are throwing themselves in this healthcare space.
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: What I like about these chapter folks, I've spent time
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: with them. This is a very transparent organization. It is
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: Medicare and all of its affiliated stuff can be very confusing.
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: The whole point of this is to make this easier
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: and less confusing. OK, so look, take the skepticism you
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: already have in all of this, point it at your
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: own plan for 20 minutes. It's free. There's no pressure.
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: And then call chapter today at 980-734-4200. three, nine, eight, five.
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: Hello there. Happy Thursday and welcome to the long weekend
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: episode of the Chuck Todd cast. Something that I assume
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: will be up for three days, three or four days
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: while you guys get a chance to take a listen
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: to it. I'm coming to you from the Island of
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: Manhattan here in lovely New York city. As some of
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: you Podcast listeners know I am going to be part
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: of the next Predict conference. It is both Thursday and Friday.
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: I'll be hosting some panels and helping to emcee the
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: event at times. But it's about trying to deal with
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  Speaker 1: the prediction markets as a budding industry, not talk about
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: individual ones, but sort of What is the good, the bad,
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: the ugly? What should be done? What kind of regulation
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  Speaker 1: is necessary? What are some best use cases? And it
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  Speaker 1: really is trying to get all the proper folks in
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  Speaker 1: the room so that we can– just to sort of
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  Speaker 1: see the variety of ways that prediction markets work. have
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  Speaker 1: the chance to be useful in different ways. So to
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  Speaker 1: say that I'm going to be overwhelmed with numbers is
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: an understatement and it kind of is a bit of
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  Speaker 1: a tease for this because I have spent the last
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  Speaker 1: 24 hours consumed with data. We have a brand new
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: New York Times-Santa That I spent a couple hours in
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: the crosstabs. I've got a lot that I want to
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  Speaker 1: share with you because I think there are a lot
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: of tea leaves worth reading in this one sort of
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  Speaker 1: to set where we up to sort of set up
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  Speaker 1: where where things are with about 10 days to go
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  Speaker 1: before Election Day. Needless to say, there is there is
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  Speaker 1: no counter. There is no counter evidence that the wave
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  Speaker 1: is is somehow cresting. This sucker appears to still be building.
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  Speaker 1: It's getting bigger. The question is how big. Right. You've
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  Speaker 1: now got Republicans nervous about Mississippi Senate. You know, now
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  Speaker 1: they want to put some money in. First, Democrats are
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: trying to expand the battlefield. And now there may be
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  Speaker 1: something happening here. But as my friend. buffalo springfield likes
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  Speaker 1: to say what it is ain't exactly clear um and
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: that is for those of you that know me well
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: know that i beat up that um song lyric quite
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: a bit uh when i like to talk about uh
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: the end game of a campaign season because that's what
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  Speaker 1: we all are you know we we can we we
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  Speaker 1: can see enough of the tea leaves to know something's
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  Speaker 1: happening here but we're at the point of the campaign
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  Speaker 1: is what it is ain't exactly clear That's why you
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: got to stop. Hey, listen, what's that sound? Never mind.
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: You don't want to hear me sing. That is not
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: why you tune in or download that. If anything, I
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: fear if I start singing, you may unsubscribe. But I've
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: got a whole bunch of data to share. I had
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: an interesting briefing from a super PAC spending a lot
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: of money in Senate races that I think there's some
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: interesting uh, things to share there. We've got an update on, on, um, this, uh, Ramaswamy, um, disaster, um,
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  Speaker 1: this horrendous, pretty much the lowest we are. I think
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  Speaker 1: this is the lowest point in campaign politics in a
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  Speaker 1: long time. Um, and I'll be honest, I'm going to
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  Speaker 1: spend a little few more minutes on it. If, if
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  Speaker 1: this tactic works, um, we're gonna regret this collectively as
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  Speaker 1: a society, as campaign, you know, I know you think, geez,
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  Speaker 1: can it get any lower in politics? Well, the answer
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  Speaker 1: is apparently yes, it can. And at some point we
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  Speaker 1: need to stop digging. And if we can't stop digging
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  Speaker 1: on exploiting childhood trauma, then I understand why people wanna
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  Speaker 1: give up on campaigns and democracy and stop. I mean,
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  Speaker 1: The low quality candidates that are being allowed into the system. Look,
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  Speaker 1: anybody can run. It is our job as voters to
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  Speaker 1: make sure the scumbags don't get power. And when you're
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  Speaker 1: exploiting childhood trauma to win an election, that is the
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  Speaker 1: low of lows. You are unworthy of a lot of things.
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  Speaker 1: elective office is just one of the things that you're
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  Speaker 1: unworthy of, but certainly to be a representative of any
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  Speaker 1: group of people. I got to think there's that, that
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  Speaker 1: I certainly hope enough people feel shame that what Ramaswami
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  Speaker 1: is doing is, um, is punished because if it's not there,
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  Speaker 1: you know, I know we keep saying this boy, you know,
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  Speaker 1: They keep moving the sucker, right? The famous Bill Hurt
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  Speaker 1: line and network, you know, where's the line? This crosses
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  Speaker 1: the line. He says, wow, they keep moving the sucker.
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  Speaker 1: And I know Donald Trump has introduced a whole nother
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  Speaker 1: level of garbage into our political ecosystem, into the rhetoric. Yes,
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  Speaker 1: social media is unfiltered. The garbage that Elon Musk has
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  Speaker 1: created and allowed to happen, right? There's no doubt there
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  Speaker 1: are plenty of bad actors out here. But to think
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  Speaker 1: that these people, Ramaswamy's campaign focus group, this message tested it,
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  Speaker 1: knowing full well what the real story was, that Amy
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  Speaker 1: Acton was sexually abused as a 10, 11 and 12
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  Speaker 1: year old. And they choose to exploit the issue and
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  Speaker 1: then be dishonest about it with one of her, one
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  Speaker 1: of the people who put her through this trauma. Yes,
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  Speaker 1: it happens to be her birth mother. But what mother
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  Speaker 1: allows this to happen to their own child? And what
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  Speaker 1: campaign thinks it's worth using and exploiting? So needless to say,
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  Speaker 1: I got a little bit more to say on that.
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  Speaker 1: And then finally, I got four things. I'm gonna leave
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  Speaker 1: you with four things that I believe if I knew
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  Speaker 1: the answer to it right now, I'd be much more
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  Speaker 1: sure of exactly where I think the selection cycle is
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  Speaker 1: headed on that front. And then it's hard to top
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: last week in college football. But since, you know, the
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  Speaker 1: team that I have dragged all of you into caring
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: about on this podcast, my beloved University of Miami Hurricanes,
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: they're now number one. And just remember, just like this podcast,
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: you were here when? Before anybody thought it was cool
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: to see if Miami could come back. Before anybody thought
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: it was cool to get into this podcast space. And
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: you're helping us become one of the top-rated, if not top-rated,
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: political analysis podcasts that exist. And you've gotten to follow
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: me while we've watched the Miami Hurricanes rise to the
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: place that I used to think was their proper place
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  Speaker 1: in the polls. Sitting up there at number one with
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  Speaker 1: the rest of the country being and moaning about Miami,
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: whether it's their schedule, their conference, their whatever. All I
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: know is that come on the field, some of these
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: teams that complain usually have a hard time dealing with them.
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  Speaker 1: But I am also self-aware that Miami backed into that
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  Speaker 1: number one ranking. And I certainly am not interested in
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: seeing Miami sitting up in the number one spot until
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: after they've won something, not before. But let's get to
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: the topic for why you come here more often than not.
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: I know some of you come here for the football,
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: but most of you are coming in here for the
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: politics and makes try to do our best to make
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  Speaker 1: sense at all sense of what we're all seeing. As
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  Speaker 1: you know, there are certain polls that I think are garbage.
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  Speaker 1: You know, you're never going to see by. the way,
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  Speaker 1: this podcast was never going to quote whatever the hell
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  Speaker 1: that polling firm was, because I don't quote anonymous polling
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  Speaker 1: firms that I never hear of that suddenly pop up somewhere.
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: You know, I still won't, you know, cite a Trafalgar poll.
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: I think it's kind of their methodology is kind of
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: sketchy to me. So I didn't you know, I was
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: never sharing whatever this Westfield or Westerfield. But I'll tell
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  Speaker 1: you something about this fake polling. You know, I'd like
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  Speaker 1: to see them investigated. I don't know if they committed
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: a crime, if they technically committed a crime. Right. It
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: is not a crime to lie. It is not a
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: crime to do those things. But the manipulative I certainly
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: would like to see a little bit more information about
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: what motivated these folks to. To say that I don't
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: take their press release at face value, which was, oh,
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: we were just conducting an experiment, something's fishier there. So
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: I think there needs to be a real investigation. I
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: think a local law enforcement agency has every right, right?
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: They have admitted they intentionally defrauded the public. I'm not sure, right?
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: I'm not, you know, the First Amendment's a pretty strong
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: thing here. But you know what? I want to make
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: them go to court to try to prevent us from
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: finding out. what was happening and what was motivating. So
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: I'm so offended by what they did that I'd like
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: to see some sort of either consumer investigation opened up
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: by a consumer arm, perhaps a state attorney general's office,
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: because this is defrauding the customer, defrauding consumers. And in
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: the case, maybe Molly McMorrow, who believes that her Super
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: PAC fundraising dried up based on this fake poll that
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: they released in Michigan, perhaps she can engage in some
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: civil litigation simply so that we can get some depositions, right?
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: Simply to basically get discovery. There's something fishier about this
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: company than them just conducting an experiment. I don't buy it.
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  Speaker 1: It's more than just conducting an experiment. They had a motivation.
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: They had an agenda. And it wasn't just to see
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: if they could infiltrate the public square with fake poll numbers.
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  Speaker 1: They were manipulating a result and trying to manipulate something here.
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  Speaker 1: So I think we need more information. I just think
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: it's worthy of real investigation on this front. And I think, again,
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: it's people were defrauded. And like I said, the person
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: that may have the best case to file a lawsuit
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: against this entity, whoever and whatever they are, is probably
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: Mallory McMorrow, the former Senate candidate there in Michigan. Okay,
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  Speaker 1: so where are we? We're two weeks away. We're less
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: than two weeks away from election day. As I said,
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: we got that big times Siena poll. And I think
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: we are getting more and more evidence, right? I told
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: you the other day, my three scenarios, blue mirage, blue wave,
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: blue tsunami, that blue mirage is really no longer the
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: case here. I think what we're looking at here is
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: the blue wave is forming. And the question is, is
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: the bottom going to fall out? When you look at
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: this Times poll and you get into the numbers, they
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  Speaker 1: have the generic ballot at the Democrats up plus 11.
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: It's a big number. Now, is it pot? And if
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: it was that much, this would be bigger than what
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: 2006 was. And we'd be approaching something closer to 1994, um,
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: than anything else. Um, that's a big deal. All right,
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: let's dig into the times, uh, CNN poll. And I'm
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: going to be looking, I've got, I did a whole
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: bunch of notes and screenshots on a separate device here.
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: So I may be looking off camera every once in
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: a while, um, as I read, um, Read my notes here.
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: But let me first do which party has the advantage
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: on which issue here, because what was amazing is that
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: the Democrats basically have a clean sweep right now when
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: it comes to asking voters which party do they trust
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: to handle to do a better job handling the following issue.
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: So on health care. Democrats had a 20-point advantage, 57-37.
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: Cost of living, 15-point advantage, 55-40. I'm going in order
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: of the Democratic advantages now. So their biggest advantage was
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: on the issue of healthcare. And as I've told you,
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: the healthcare issue now is no longer about access. The
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: primary concern about healthcare is cost and affordability. So Healthcare
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: is also an affordability issue, but it is number one
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: by 20 points for Democrats handling that. Cost of living,
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: Democrats up by 15 points on that. Gas prices, Democrats
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: up by 14 points. So you can say first three
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: issues are affordability issues, right? Healthcare, cost of living, gas prices.
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: Fourth biggest advantage? The Times put it as foreign wars. Obviously,
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: that's Iran and Ukraine, 10-point advantage for the Democrats. Generic economy,
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: which party do you trust? Democrats by eight points on
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: this one. Here's one. How about immigration? Democrats up by
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: four points on immigration. And this goes to the pattern
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: we've been seeing for the last two years, which was
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: Republicans started with an advantage on immigration. For the longest time,
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: it was the only issue that Donald Trump was right
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: side up on. But the aggressive enforcement has turned off
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: a whole bunch of folks, never mind the labor problems
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: that it's created in the agricultural community, which has upset
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: quite a few people, particularly in the Midwest and the
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: Plain States. And now you've got the Democrats with a narrow,
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: it's a four-point advantage, but it's a narrowed advantage. Corruption.
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: Democrats up by 11 points. Who can deal with corruption better?
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: Democrats by 11 points. And on artificial intelligence, it's Democrats
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: by 11 points. So there is not a single issue
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: that voters are concerned about where they view the Republican
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: Party as the more viable party to handle that, that
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: that party can handle it better than the Democratic Party.
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: What this is really about is that this is Donald Trump, right?
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: And this is ultimately the real problem Republican candidates have
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: all across the country is that most voters, when they're
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: asked this question, are thinking about, well, do I trust
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: Donald Trump with this? And if the answer is no,
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: then they pick the Democrats. Think about it this way, right?
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: Imagine if you were answering, asking the question, do you
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: trust Donald Trump to handle healthcare? And the no would
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: probably be at 57% and the yes would be at 37%, right?
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: That is essentially the base. If you ask, do you
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: trust Donald Trump to be able to handle cost of living?
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: And I told you it was 40, 55. You probably say, oh,
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: that's a little high. That's more people than I would
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: have expected. But you see the point here, right, which
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: is Donald Trump's because he took charge. You know, he
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: created this cost of living issues with his tariffs, the
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: war in Iran, the aggressive immigration enforcement. Right. This is
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: this is not they're punishing the Republican Party. But it's really.
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: about punishing Trump because it's on all of these issues
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: that it's really about Donald Trump, right? The corruption issue.
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: This is Donald Trump's Washington. This episode of the Chuck
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: Todd cast is brought to you by CalSheet. It's an
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: exchange where you can trade on what you actually think
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: is going to happen. Sports, politics, culture, whatever's on your mind.
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: And guess what? What do we do here? We do politics.
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: And I give you a lot of information and a
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: lot of you already have an idea of what you
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: think is going to happen. Well, how confident are you? Well,
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: let's look at the race for control of the Senate.
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: And there's some interesting ways you can trade the battle
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: for the Senate. How many seats will Democrats hold after
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: the midterms? The market is pretty bullish on Team Blue.
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: Above 52 is trading at 37 cents on the dollar. 52,
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: right on the nose, is trading at 23 cents, 51
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: at 11 cents, and 50 at 14 cents. Everything below
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: 50 is trading essentially under a dime on this one.
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: And I have to say, I'll just be honest, I
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: think it's way too bullish. I think 52 is the ceiling.
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: Here's what, let me give you a path to 52.
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: And then I want you to ask yourself the realistic.
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: So how do you get to 52, right? So they're
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: sitting at 47. So North Carolina is 48. Ohio would
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: be 49. Texas would be 50. Alaska would be 51.
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: Now you've got Maine and Michigan. Now Michigan, if they lose,
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: then it's subtract one, right? It's already at, Michigan's part
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: of the 47. They lose Michigan, then you're down to 50.
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: You win Maine, you're back to 51. So then how
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: do you get to 52? OK, if you win both
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: Maine and Michigan, you get to 52. Now you're saying,
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: is it Iowa, Kansas? It's interesting that the market is
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: much more bullish on Democrats netting six seats or more
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: than the market itself. Bottom line is a lot of
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: different ways you can trade the Senate market. So take
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: a look. So here's what you need to know about Kalshi.
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: You're going up against other traders directly. There is no
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: House election. setting the odds. I basically gave you some odds,
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: but that's me, right? There's no house setting the odds.
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: This is the market speaking. This is people putting their
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: opinions on the line. You can trade $ 25 a using
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: the code Chuck Todd, all one word, and they'll throw
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: in another 25 bucks instantly. So please remember to trade responsibly.
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: Donald Trump's Washington has become more pay to play than ever.
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: I mean, this latest story about the Venezuelan banker hiring Helena,
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: Alina Haba, who I think is now just got married
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: to some Turkish billionaire, some exorbitant legal fees of some
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: 50 million dollars over four or five years and was
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: also this guy could secure a pardon. Somehow she claims, well,
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: it wasn't about, you know, she didn't get paid to
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: secure a pardon. Yeah. Did she just get paid because
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: she had a she had she had a nice lawyer
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: face or was her connection to Donald Trump and his
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: legal team an important part of that? Point is, is
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: that If that was the first example we had seen
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: of somebody hiring somebody close to the president in order
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: to secure a pardon, you'd say, oh, maybe it's a one-off.
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: These are weekly stories. I mean, we know this. I mean,
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: there is, there almost is a, my guess is it's
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: kind of like a takeout menu. All right. Do you
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: want a commutation? Do you want a full pardon? Or
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: what are you looking for here? Do you want to
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: just get out early? You know, here's the price. You know,
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: here's the price list. And you do this, this, and this.
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: It's certainly a whole bunch of people in Trump's orbit
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: want people to believe that if you pay them, they
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: can get you in with the president or they can
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: somehow get you that pardon. But it's just they're doing
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: it in plain sight. And it's not as if this
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: stuff's been hard to track down. And in some ways,
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: Trump's so brazen about it, he advertises in some ways
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: that he's doing this. I mean, look at him on
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: the trail. If you vote for Roger Marshall in this election,
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: I'll be sure and do this subsidy that bails people out.
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: But if you don't, I'm not going to do it.
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: So he advertises the idea that he's for sale, that
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: everything he wants is a transaction. If he's trying to
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: make the voting aspect of transaction, like the result, if
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: I get the right result, I'll reward everybody. But if
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: I get the wrong result, I will punish everybody. It's
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: amazing that he's doing this and people up there are
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: just clapping away. Sure, that's a great idea. Keep punishing
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: us if you don't like the results of an election.
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: It's one of these things you said, I can't believe.
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: that the American president continues to behave this way. It's
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: just astonishing. Anyway, all right, I wanna spend a few minutes,
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: as I said, that was the top lines, that was
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: on the issues and you can see it's there. Now
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: I wanna get into a little bit more of the
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: poll itself and the things that I highlighted that was interesting.
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: So later in this podcast, I'm gonna talk about four
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: things that if I knew the answer to, I'd have
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: a better idea of just how good or bad this
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: night is for Democrats. Turnout among voters under 30. The
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: New York Times-Santa Paul only has 10% of the electorate
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: under 30. If the under 30 vote is 10% of
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: the electorate, Democrats are going to have a disastrous night. Now,
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: in the last four cycles, since 2018, it's been 13%.
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: 15 percent, 12 percent. I think it was 13 percent
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: in in 2024. If it gets 13, 14 or 15
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: percent of the electorate is voters under 30, Democrats are
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: going to have a huge night. And the person who
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: probably needs more voters under 30 than anybody else, because
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: voters under 30 are supporting Democrats in some of the
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: largest spreads we've seen among any age group. But when
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: you ask the question of how likely are you to vote,
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: voters under 30 are the least certain that they're going
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: to vote in these midterms. In fact, when you, when
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: you see it by age group, right, overall in the
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: New York times, Santa pole, half of all likely voters
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: said they were all, they were almost certain they were
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: going to vote. And another 30% said they were very likely, right?
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: So you had 80% calling. So very likely. And then, um,
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: Another five called themselves somewhat likely, 2% said not very likely,
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: and 2% said not at all. And 10% claimed they
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: voted already. But among voters under 30, only 37% said
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: they were almost certain to vote. Among millennials, 30 to 45, 45%
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: called themselves almost certain. Among voters, my generation, Gen X,
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: 45 to 64, that was the most certain. That was
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: the age group that was the most certain to vote, 54%.
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: This is the age group that is the most supportive
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: of Donald Trump and Republicans, and they're the most certain
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: to vote. 65 plus on the almost certain side was 51%.
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: So that was, if I were to actually point out
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: like what was the best piece of news in this time,
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: Sienna poll, I think I gave it to you, which was, well,
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: at least the age cohort that is normally the most
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: supportive of Donald Trump and the Republican Party namely Gen X,
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: the Gen X generation, well, they're more certain to vote
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: than anybody else. But it's kind of a, I'm not
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: sure I would hang my hat on that one. Now,
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: Time Santa does a couple things with the generic ballot.
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: They actually did a generic governor ballot, they did a
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: generic Senate ballot, and they did a generic House ballot.
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: But here's what they did when they asked the question.
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: is they would name the candidates on the ballot for
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: every congressional district, every Senate race, and every Gov race.
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: So while they reported the number as sort of generic,
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: Democrat and Republican, these were named candidates. And there'll be
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: many people in the polling community believe, particularly this late
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: in the cycle, that the name gives you a more,
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: when you name the candidate for the voter, and this
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: is not, these days, you know exactly who you're calling,
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: what district they're in, and all of this stuff. It
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: gives you probably a more accurate picture. So this is
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: why the Democrats have an 11-point advantage on this Times-Siena poll.
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: Remember what I told you about what Nate Cohn, who
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: runs the New York Times-Siena poll, is doing? He's trying
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: very hard to make sure he's not missing the hard-to-get
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: Trump voters. This is as much a forecast survey as
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: it is a snapshot in time, right? He triple checks
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: and puts all these little checks in there to try
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: to keep, he does not want to see this times
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: poll look way off based on the actual results. So
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: that's why I have a lot of confidence in here.
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: So I want to tell you about, so the generic
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: bound being Dems, Dems leading by 11 points. This is, right,
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: we've been at eight. Now this is higher than we've
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: seen in other polls, but we're gonna start to see
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: more likely voter models. This is a likely voter poll.
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: This is, I said, named candidates, 11 points. If you're
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: at D plus 11, Democrats are picking up 25 to
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: 35 House seats. They're going to be at somewhere 235
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: total House seats to 245 if we're looking at a
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: D plus 11. And they could get really close to
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: 250 House seats if we're really sitting in a generic
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: ballot with D plus 11. Now, let me tell you
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: about their generic Senate ballot. Same thing. In the 35
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: states holding Senate races, they named the candidates. So the
• 27:47
  Speaker 1: Democrats got 47%, Democratic Senate candidates, and Republican Senate candidates
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: were at 43%. Now you think, hmm, Democrats only had
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: a four-point advantage in these Senate races? Well, remember, this
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: Senate map is very Republican-leaning. The 35 states, there's no
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: California Senate race this year, there's no New York Senate
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: race this year, for example. So I did my own
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: math here, and the 35 states with Senate races In
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: the presidential in 2024, Trump won the 35 states that
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: are holding Senate races this midterm. He won it by
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: seven points, 53-46. So Trump plus seven for the 35
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: states collectively, and it's now Democrats plus four. Now you
• 28:35
  Speaker 1: might say to yourself, hmm, plus seven, plus four, wait
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: a minute, that's 11. Oh, what was the generic ballot? 11.
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: You gotta feel pretty good if you're Nate Cohen, that
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: your generic congressional ballot and your generic Senate ballot essentially
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: matched at 11 point. There's an 11 point swing from
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: Trump plus seven in these 35 Senate seats to now
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: D plus four. Now, if you take those numbers at heart,
• 29:07
  Speaker 1: what it probably means is that Democrats come up short
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: in Kansas, short in Mississippi, Short in South Carolina, but
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: at a 11-point swing, that's Ohio, that's Texas, that's Maine,
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: that's North Carolina, that's potentially Alaska, which sits in the
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: 13 range, and it potentially is Iowa. And what did
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: we see today? We saw some new Senate polls out
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: of the Cook Report in Ohio, Texas, and Iowa that,
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: to me, provided good news for Democrats in two of
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: the states. And on paper, it was good news in Iowa,
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: but I'd be a little nervous. And why do I
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: say that? One thing to keep track of in these
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: good Senate polls, right? And there's only a handful that
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: I buy. Cook Report is one of them. AARP is one.
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: You'll see some time, Sienna. As I told you, the
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: Fox News Senate polls are very good. I would trust
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: those as well. Start to look at what the Democratic
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: candidate is getting in the poll, because in many of
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: these red states, the number they're going to get, they're
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: only going to probably get anywhere from 20 percent or
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: fewer of the undecideds, because most of the undecideds in
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: these red states are Republicans. Now, they could end up
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: not voting. They could end up holding their nose and
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: going at the Republicans. They could vote third party. Right.
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: We don't quite sure. And maybe some of them will
• 30:33
  Speaker 1: swing over. Well, in these numbers, which I think was
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: important to note in these numbers, Sherrod Brown got to
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: forty nine. Tallarico got to forty nine. And it really,
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: you know, you saw in my ratings yesterday, my confidence
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: level that both of those states are moving in the Democrats' direction.
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: It's only going up. And frankly, the whole Ramaswamy disaster,
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: I think, only cements what's happening in Ohio. I think
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: now Ohio, the question now is, does what Ramaswamy did
• 31:04
  Speaker 1: create an even bigger sort of state-based blue wave that
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: trickles down the ballot, has legislative? I mean, I think
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: the damage he's doing here is that bad. in the
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: state of Ohio, but we'll, we'll get to there. But
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: in Iowa, Turk was sitting at 46. And while that,
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: that allowed him to lead in this poll against Hinson, boy,
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: that registration advantage that Republicans have in Iowa, you know,
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: do I think he would get another two points from
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: 46 to 48 if taking the Cook Report poll at
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: face value? I do. I don't know if 48 is
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: a winning number. Right. That's going to be the real question.
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: I think it's true of Nebraska. It's true of Kansas.
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: It's probably true of Mississippi. It's true of Iowa. I
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: think if Democrats can make 48 or 49 a winning number,
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: they can win some of those states. If they have
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: to get to 50, I don't see it. What they
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: really need is some of these third party candidates to
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: sort of become the safe haven for Republicans who want
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: to send a message without voting for a Democrat. But
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: I think it's certainly... What you're seeing in this Time
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: Siena poll, what we saw in this Cook Report polls,
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: it's you're seeing these polls match a little bit. Another
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: thing that caught my eye in the Time Siena poll
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: was their party ID question. And I'm fascinated by this
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: because of what we're watching. As many of you know, I,
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: you know. I think we need to sort of bust
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: up the two parties here. I think they're sort of
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: too big. The duopoly sort of, I think, certainly is
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: something that a growing number of voters would prefer not
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: to be a member of either party, right? We're up
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: to 45%, according to Gallup, of Americans who choose not
• 32:52
  Speaker 1: to register in either party and want to call themselves
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: independent or be in no party. Well, I wanted to
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: share with you sort of the party I.D., breakdowns by
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: age group and by ethnicity, because how people describe their
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: party at the moment will give you a clue of
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: probably where they're leaning and where they're voting, right? So
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: for instance, among voters under 30, the self-ID, the number
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: of voters under 30 that consider themselves Republican is just 15%.
• 33:20
  Speaker 1: Let me repeat. 15%, 44% of voters under 30 call
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: themselves Democrats. 33% of voters under 30 call themselves independents.
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: And right now we know independents, that Democrats are winning
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: independents by double digits, close to 20 points, depending on
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: the poll you read. But only 15% of voters under
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: 30 call themselves Republicans. So we do know that if
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: there is a huge turnout, if turnout surges among voters
• 33:52
  Speaker 1: under 30, That's how this become goes from wave to tsunami. Now,
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: just for comparative sakes, among millennials, Republicans are also in
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: third place among millennials. This is where I think that,
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: you know, this is a part of, I think, a
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: long term problem the Republican Party has is Donald Trump
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: has really alienated the Republican Party from voters under the
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: age of 50. Because let me read you these numbers
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: of millennials, which in this age group is age 30
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: to 44. 36% of millennials call themselves Democrats. 34% of
• 34:26
  Speaker 1: millennials call themselves independent. And only 24% of millennials call
• 34:29
  Speaker 1: themselves Republican. So you can see it's been this sort of,
• 34:33
  Speaker 1: you know, and millennials, that's your, you know, their first
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: adult president is Obama. So maybe you can chalk that
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: up to Obama a little bit. But with Gen Z,
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: their first adult president is Trump. And all it's done
• 34:46
  Speaker 1: is turn them off of the Republican Party. How the
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: Republican Party treated Obama, I think, has turned off a
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: chunk of millennials. But those are not figures that a
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: major party wants to see among younger voters. And because,
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: you know, you lose them when they're young. And, you know,
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: it is funny about when people pick a party, they
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: rarely leave it right away. It takes a while before
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: you can get somebody to leave their party once they've
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: made a choice in their 20s and 30s, for what
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: it's worth. Among Gen X, my generation, 45 to 64,
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: the Republican Party is the number one party. 37% of
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: Gen X identifies as Republican. 30% identify as independent. And 29%.
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: Identify as Democrat. That's how bad the brand problem has gotten.
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: The Democrats brand problem is with obviously younger voters who
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: would prefer to be independent, but also older voters who
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: have decided it isn't the Democratic Party of their youth.
• 35:52
  Speaker 1: And you really see this in the in the Gen
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: X section. Now, among 65 plus. Democrats bounce back 37 percent.
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: Republicans are still the number one party among 65 plus
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: 37 percent. Democrats right behind them at 36 percent. And
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: among voters over 65, just 23 percent call themselves independent.
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: But the fact that older voters are dead even and
• 36:13
  Speaker 1: the only advantage that Republicans have right now in the
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: age groups is among Gen X. It's the smallest of
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: the four generations. So and the advantage isn't so big
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: that it's enough to be decisive. So you can see.
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: And that's why I thought this age group breakdown here
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: by party was yet another tea leaf worth reading. This
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  Speaker 1: sure you're getting every discount. Republicans also have a Latino
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  Speaker 1: and only 22 percent call themselves Republicans. And among Asian Americans,
• 39:26
  Speaker 1: it's a small subsample, but 41 percent call themselves Democrats, 38%
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: call themselves independents, and only 17% call themselves Republican. That
• 39:37
  Speaker 1: is such a disaster, particularly on the Asian front, because
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: in the 90s, the second wave of of Asians coming
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: into the electorate, particularly in California, a lot of the
• 39:53
  Speaker 1: sort of second generation Asian candidates were on the Republican
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: side of the aisle. Republicans did really well with basically
• 39:59
  Speaker 1: first gen Asian immigrants and their families. And, you know,
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: whether it was, you know, Obama in a positive way,
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: winning over the Southeast Asian vote in particular, you know,
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: his living in Indonesia gave him, this Asian Pacific identity
• 40:17
  Speaker 1: of sorts growing up in Hawaii, living in Indonesia. So
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: he did, he did organize, um, the, the Asian community, uh,
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: and all the different, um, subcategory, you know, different, different
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: subcategories within the Asian community that I think it, it
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: certainly got stickier for Democrats in general, but this is,
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: you know, when you think about the faster growing population, um,
• 40:46
  Speaker 1: demographics in our country, whether by age or by ethnicity,
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: the Republicans are in third place behind Democrats and independents here.
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: And I do think that that's telling, at least with
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: this midterm election. Oh, one other point about this time,
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: Sienna Poll, just to give you a sense of how
• 41:11
  Speaker 1: different this electorate is. And again, I told you how
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: hard Nate Cohn works to try to get an idea.
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: His projection is that this will be an electorate that
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: would have been, that if this were the electorate in 2024,
• 41:28
  Speaker 1: Kamala Harris would have won by three points. So that's
• 41:33
  Speaker 1: how much more democratic this electorate appears to become, to be. Yes,
• 41:40
  Speaker 1: we're you know, and that is indicative of this D
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: plus 11 congressional ballot. That's indicative of the 11 point
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: swing we went from on the Senate states were Trump
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: plus seven and now D plus four. So it is
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: worth noting that this is that that is a pretty
• 41:58
  Speaker 1: interesting development on that front. A few other things that
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: I want to get to on the question of the
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: state of the nation's economy. How would you rate economic
• 42:11
  Speaker 1: conditions today? You got four choices in this poll. Excellent, good,
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: only fair, poor. Well, 51% of likely voters call the
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: economic conditions in America today poor. So I was curious
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: to see which groups were over 51% in poor. Well,
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: among 18 to 29-year-olds, 68% called economic conditions poor. Among millennials, 59%
• 42:33
  Speaker 1: called economic conditions poor. Among African-Americans, 80% called economic conditions poor.
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: Among Hispanics, 61% called economic conditions poor. What's interesting is
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: white voters who went to college, 50% think this economy
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: is poor. Non-white voters who went to college, 62% think
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: these economic conditions are poor. And non-white, non-college educated voters, 67%
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: think this economy is poor. The only A group of
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: voters who do not who were not over 50 percent
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: in rating these economic conditions as poor were white non-college.
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: So basically Trump's base, 42 percent. You know, it wasn't
• 43:21
  Speaker 1: exactly a great number, but it was the only category
• 43:25
  Speaker 1: of note that was under 50 percent. You saw those
• 43:29
  Speaker 1: groups that I'm talking again. If this is the motivator
• 43:33
  Speaker 1: to vote, these aren't swing voters for this midterm. They
• 43:37
  Speaker 1: already know which way they're gonna vote on this front.
• 43:42
  Speaker 1: I was telling you about the differences between the two parties. Well,
• 43:45
  Speaker 1: they also did Trump's job rating on various issues. And
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: just to run through it real quick, on the economy, approve, disapprove, 35% approve, 64% disapprove.
• 43:53
  Speaker 1: On immigration, 42% approve, 57% disapprove. So his disapproval rating
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: on immigration is higher than the advantage Democrats have on
• 44:06
  Speaker 1: the issue itself. So that just tells you how disappointed
• 44:09
  Speaker 1: voters are with Trump. On tariffs, 61% disapprove of his tariff.
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: Handling of tariffs, 36% approve. Cost of living, under 30, 29%
• 44:20
  Speaker 1: approve of his handling of the cost of living, 69% disapprove.
• 44:23
  Speaker 1: On the war in Iran, it's 33% approve, 65% disapprove.
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: Gas prices, 24% approve, 73% disapprove. I mean, this is
• 44:38
  Speaker 1: why you look at this poll, you look at the
• 44:41
  Speaker 1: potential for the bottom to fall out, and it may
• 44:44
  Speaker 1: be falling out as we speak. As I said, they're
• 44:47
  Speaker 1: having to send money to Mississippi. They, the national Republicans,
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: put some money in the open House seat in Wyoming.
• 44:57
  Speaker 1: Let me repeat, the national Republican Party put money into
• 45:02
  Speaker 1: the open seat in Wyoming. Cynthia Lummis is going to
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: be the next senator from Wyoming. But that's how concerned
• 45:11
  Speaker 1: they are. Now, are Democrats going to win the Wyoming
• 45:14
  Speaker 1: at-large seat? No, they're not going to win the... But
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: the fact is, my guess is all these polls... Sit
• 45:19
  Speaker 1: here and especially in an open seat where you can
• 45:22
  Speaker 1: get concerned that the undecided vote is more willing to
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: give the other party a chance when they really don't
• 45:28
  Speaker 1: know anything about the Republican nominee on their side. But
• 45:35
  Speaker 1: just these you can see these polls are just devastating.
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: So it is. There was not other than certainty to vote.
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: It is about the only good news I could find
• 45:53
  Speaker 1: in here at all. I'll give you one other piece
• 45:55
  Speaker 1: of good news if you're on the Republican side of things.
• 45:58
  Speaker 1: In general, would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied
• 46:01
  Speaker 1: with the Democratic Party? 28% called themselves satisfied. 70% called
• 46:05
  Speaker 1: themselves dissatisfied. Now, ask the same question of the Republican Party. 36%
• 46:10
  Speaker 1: called themselves satisfied. 63% dissatisfied. So you could say that
• 46:15
  Speaker 1: Democrats are more unpopular. The Democratic Party is more unpopular
• 46:18
  Speaker 1: than the Republican Party. But what's interesting here on this
• 46:21
  Speaker 1: dissatisfaction scale is part of the problem for Democrats is
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: millennials and Gen Z are among the most negative about
• 46:29
  Speaker 1: the Democratic Party. And they're the ones that are going
• 46:32
  Speaker 1: to vote in the biggest numbers for the Democrats compared
• 46:35
  Speaker 1: to the Republicans. So they're not big fans. They're even more,
• 46:38
  Speaker 1: you know, they're not popular, but the Republicans are less
• 46:42
  Speaker 1: likely to say they're dissatisfied with the Republican Party. Democrats
• 46:46
  Speaker 1: are not afraid to say they're dissatisfied. with their own
• 46:50
  Speaker 1: party at this front. So the point is you can't,
• 46:56
  Speaker 1: as I said here, it is hard to find a
• 47:01
  Speaker 1: poll number in here that is somehow putting them in
• 47:04
  Speaker 1: a good race. Now, I wanted to give you one
• 47:06
  Speaker 1: other tea leaf to consume here. So Trump's job approval
• 47:11
  Speaker 1: rating in this poll was 34% overall. To put that
• 47:18
  Speaker 1: in context, They did a very helpful chart of job
• 47:21
  Speaker 1: approval ratings going back to Harry Truman. If Donald Trump's 34%
• 47:27
  Speaker 1: would put him, if this is what his election day
• 47:29
  Speaker 1: job rating is come the midterms, this would make him
• 47:33
  Speaker 1: the second most unpopular president going into a midterm since
• 47:37
  Speaker 1: World War II. The most was Harry Truman in 1946.
• 47:42
  Speaker 1: His job approval rating, you know, back then we just
• 47:45
  Speaker 1: had Gallup, was at 33%. So Donald Trump is right
• 47:48
  Speaker 1: there at 34%. Guess who's right comes next after Trump?
• 47:53
  Speaker 1: George W. Bush in that 2006 midterm where Democrats won
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: both the House and the Senate. He was sitting at
• 48:00
  Speaker 1: 37 percent on Election Day. So the three lowest presidential
• 48:05
  Speaker 1: job approval ratings going into a midterm since World War Two.
• 48:09
  Speaker 1: Harry Truman, 33 percent. Donald Trump's second term, 34 percent.
• 48:13
  Speaker 1: George W. Bush's second term, 37 percent. Harry Truman in
• 48:19
  Speaker 1: 1950 was the only other president below 40% at 39%.
• 48:21
  Speaker 1: By the way, in case you're wondering, the best job
• 48:26
  Speaker 1: rating any president has had going into a midterm since
• 48:30
  Speaker 1: World War II was Bill Clinton, 66% in the impeachment
• 48:34
  Speaker 1: midterm of 1998. Reagan in 86 was sitting at 63%,
• 48:39
  Speaker 1: and his side still lost the Senate, but they didn't
• 48:43
  Speaker 1: lose too many House seats on there. George W. Bush
• 48:45
  Speaker 1: had 62% in the 02s. Midterms, Dwight Eisenhower, his first
• 48:49
  Speaker 1: midterm was sitting at 61 percent. JFK, his first midterm
• 48:52
  Speaker 1: at 61 percent. Now, those those were the midterms where
• 48:55
  Speaker 1: the presidential party did better than expected. But the point is,
• 48:59
  Speaker 1: is that when you look at every single marker when
• 49:02
  Speaker 1: it comes to assessing a midterm election, presidential job approval,
• 49:05
  Speaker 1: you know, that has to be at or near a
• 49:09
  Speaker 1: record low for a president for the out party to
• 49:11
  Speaker 1: catch a wave. Well, he's in wave territory. Right. The
• 49:15
  Speaker 1: generic ballot wave territory. The differences between the two parties,
• 49:25
  Speaker 1: wave territory, right? There is nothing in here. And there's, look,
• 49:28
  Speaker 1: I'm not going to lie to you. There's a part
• 49:30
  Speaker 1: of me going, wait a minute. If everything's pointing in
• 49:32
  Speaker 1: one direction, what are we missing? What I am open-minded
• 49:40
  Speaker 1: to a counterfactual here. Yes, I know it's harder to
• 49:44
  Speaker 1: get Republicans in these polls, but I also know a
• 49:47
  Speaker 1: lot more of the good pollsters are doing better at
• 49:50
  Speaker 1: figuring that out, doing better at waiting up. I think
• 49:54
  Speaker 1: the possibility that we're overrating Republican chances is as good.
• 50:03
  Speaker 1: The assumption is that the polling error is only going
• 50:07
  Speaker 1: to go in the direction that benefits the Republicans. But
• 50:11
  Speaker 1: we've now had 10 years of fear in the polling
• 50:15
  Speaker 1: community that the error is gonna be in that direction.
• 50:17
  Speaker 1: And so there's been nothing but work done by a
• 50:22
  Speaker 1: lot of academics and a lot of smart pollsters trying
• 50:24
  Speaker 1: to fix that. Is it possible? You know, there's always
• 50:29
  Speaker 1: a point where you've overdone it, where you've overcorrected. And
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: I think it's as likely, I don't wanna say more likely,
• 50:38
  Speaker 1: I think it's as likely that we've overcorrected as it
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: is that there's going to be a significant look. The
• 50:49
  Speaker 1: Senate races are in some pretty red states. So Democrats
• 50:53
  Speaker 1: could have a big night and still come up short
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: in your Mississippis, in your Kansas, in your South Carolinas.
• 51:01
  Speaker 1: But at this point, if this is the electorate that
• 51:04
  Speaker 1: we're staring at, the time CNN has done, the Democrats
• 51:07
  Speaker 1: are going to win the House and the Senate. It's
• 51:09
  Speaker 1: not just going to be a it's not going to
• 51:11
  Speaker 1: be a mirage. If this is the electorate, they're going
• 51:14
  Speaker 1: to win both pure and simple. Let's dig into the
• 51:19
  Speaker 1: Senate a little bit. I think, like I said, those
• 51:21
  Speaker 1: Cook report numbers indicate to me they've got Tallarico with
• 51:26
  Speaker 1: a five point lead. It's look, it's pretty clear Republicans
• 51:30
  Speaker 1: had decided to bail on Paxton and they got away
• 51:33
  Speaker 1: with it because Elon Musk was willing to write a
• 51:35
  Speaker 1: single check. to sort of backstop and what the Republicans can,
• 51:39
  Speaker 1: can work on other ones. But Tallarico is polling at 49%.
• 51:42
  Speaker 1: Paxton was only sitting at 44. You know, I, you know,
• 51:47
  Speaker 1: if this is actually the spread, if he's opening up
• 51:50
  Speaker 1: a lead, Tallarico really is opening up a lead. You know,
• 51:54
  Speaker 1: can you imagine if we're able to call Tallarico before
• 51:57
  Speaker 1: 10 o'clock at night? You know, it's something, one of
• 52:00
  Speaker 1: the warnings I want to tie, and I'm going to
• 52:02
  Speaker 1: get deeper into this in a couple of podcasts, you know,
• 52:05
  Speaker 1: as we get closer to election day, but, I think
• 52:09
  Speaker 1: it's very likely between on the East Coast, between 8
• 52:11
  Speaker 1: and 11. We don't have many races called because, remember,
• 52:15
  Speaker 1: the Democratic vote is in a lot of urban areas.
• 52:18
  Speaker 1: Urban areas take longer to count. There's more ballots. There's
• 52:20
  Speaker 1: more voters. It's just going to take longer. You know,
• 52:24
  Speaker 1: if Democrats are winning these red states, you're not going
• 52:27
  Speaker 1: to be able to know that these are callable races
• 52:32
  Speaker 1: until you're getting to 80 or 90 percent on that front.
• 52:37
  Speaker 1: But the big news is that the Democrats have decided
• 52:41
  Speaker 1: to send a little bit of money to Mississippi. And
• 52:44
  Speaker 1: we've seen other individual campaigns send money to Mississippi. Kamala
• 52:48
  Speaker 1: Harris has been campaigning there. Look, Mississippi is what we
• 52:52
  Speaker 1: call in the campaign business a cheap date. And so
• 52:57
  Speaker 1: a million, you know, throwing in a A couple million
• 53:01
  Speaker 1: dollars in Mississippi can actually go a long way. If
• 53:04
  Speaker 1: you just threw an extra $ 2 million in Texas, you
• 53:07
  Speaker 1: wouldn't notice it, right? Or even through the $ 2 million
• 53:10
  Speaker 1: if you wanted to, you know, throw a Hail Mary
• 53:12
  Speaker 1: in Florida or something like that. So the Mississippi development
• 53:17
  Speaker 1: is interesting because now you've got Republicans truly are nervous
• 53:20
  Speaker 1: about it. And when you look at the two Senate candidates,
• 53:22
  Speaker 1: it's like the Kansas situation, right? Kansas has two Republican senators,
• 53:27
  Speaker 1: Jerry Moran, Roger Marshall. Jerry Moran has been in Kansas
• 53:30
  Speaker 1: politics a long time, is known to have great constituency service,
• 53:35
  Speaker 1: is really well-liked among his colleagues, is just not somebody
• 53:39
  Speaker 1: that's going to get caught napping. Roger Marshall, on the
• 53:41
  Speaker 1: other hand, still kind of new to politics, kind of
• 53:45
  Speaker 1: went from one career, jumped in. I have told you before,
• 53:48
  Speaker 1: he strikes me as not really liking people all the time,
• 53:51
  Speaker 1: which makes me wonder why did he get into the
• 53:53
  Speaker 1: politics business? And it does look like he got caught
• 53:56
  Speaker 1: napping a little bit. Well, the Mississippi Senate pairs are similar.
• 53:59
  Speaker 1: Roger Wicker, man, he's been in Mississippi politics a long time.
• 54:03
  Speaker 1: He was in the Congress. And then, you know, he's
• 54:05
  Speaker 1: sort of in he's well known for having great constituency
• 54:09
  Speaker 1: service in that state. He's well respected by his colleagues.
• 54:12
  Speaker 1: He's been pretty much more aggressive at pushing back on
• 54:16
  Speaker 1: bad decisions by Hengsteth, pushing back on this idea that
• 54:20
  Speaker 1: Putin is somehow anything other than a tyrant and a thug.
• 54:25
  Speaker 1: But Sidney Hyde-Smith is just not a huge presence there.
• 54:34
  Speaker 1: People forget in her first race, it wasn't a blowout.
• 54:37
  Speaker 1: She didn't win by double digits. There's always been a
• 54:40
  Speaker 1: high floor for Democrats in Mississippi. It's why I think
• 54:42
  Speaker 1: it's a state that Democrats have missed out on organizing,
• 54:45
  Speaker 1: probably should have organized a lot sooner. But it has
• 54:48
  Speaker 1: a low ceiling, right? It is definitely, they need, I think,
• 54:52
  Speaker 1: 48 or 49 percent has to be a winning number. But,
• 54:56
  Speaker 1: you know, African-Americans are really upset about the gutting of
• 55:00
  Speaker 1: the Voting Rights Act. We have seen turnout among African-Americans
• 55:02
  Speaker 1: during the primaries was through the roof. You get a
• 55:07
  Speaker 1: higher than expected turnout among African-Americans in Mississippi and you
• 55:10
  Speaker 1: get an average to below average turnout among white Republicans.
• 55:15
  Speaker 1: That's the recipe, folks. That's the recipe for failure. Mississippi
• 55:21
  Speaker 1: being in play. It's also the recipe for South Carolina.
• 55:24
  Speaker 1: But Donald Trump is is is he's, you know, making
• 55:28
  Speaker 1: a couple of stops in South Carolina. I don't think
• 55:32
  Speaker 1: they've decided to do to do that just yet. All right.
• 55:36
  Speaker 1: Now I want to go to day two, I guess,
• 55:40
  Speaker 1: of the fallout of this. And, you know, I've had
• 55:43
  Speaker 1: a few people going, oh, you you really got angry
• 55:46
  Speaker 1: about this Ramaswami ad. Look. I hope I've made something
• 55:51
  Speaker 1: clear that I, I love politics. I love this democracy.
• 55:55
  Speaker 1: I love our constitution. I'm not saying that just to
• 55:58
  Speaker 1: sound like I'm a hokey, you know, wannabe government teacher,
• 56:03
  Speaker 1: you know, first of all, I'd love to be, I
• 56:05
  Speaker 1: enjoy teaching. And I adored my government teacher when I
• 56:11
  Speaker 1: was in high school. And I genuinely do love our constitution.
• 56:18
  Speaker 1: I genuinely do love politics and I love, public service.
• 56:21
  Speaker 1: I think there's some nobility to it. Do I think
• 56:23
  Speaker 1: there are massive egos in politics? I do. Do I
• 56:26
  Speaker 1: think negative campaigns work? Alexander Hamilton created the New York
• 56:31
  Speaker 1: Post to be a negative campaigner. So as long as
• 56:34
  Speaker 1: we've had democracy, we've had negative campaigns. I'm not naive.
• 56:39
  Speaker 1: But I want more good people to run for office.
• 56:42
  Speaker 1: I think that we have... locked people out of politics
• 56:47
  Speaker 1: by making it disgusting and awful, by deciding that if
• 56:52
  Speaker 1: you choose to run, we're going to make you defend
• 56:55
  Speaker 1: any vaguely bad decision or bad thing that's happened to you,
• 57:00
  Speaker 1: whether you did it or somebody did it to you,
• 57:02
  Speaker 1: and we're going to make sure we litigate it all.
• 57:05
  Speaker 1: And you're basically going to, it's the, you know, one
• 57:08
  Speaker 1: of the infamous dreams that, you know, therapists will say
• 57:12
  Speaker 1: that people have is that You know, you have this
• 57:14
  Speaker 1: dream where you're literally naked and you're like, what? I
• 57:17
  Speaker 1: can't wear my clothes. I mean, I've I've had that.
• 57:20
  Speaker 1: And it's the, you know, therapists all say, you know,
• 57:23
  Speaker 1: when you when you worry about it, you know, you
• 57:26
  Speaker 1: have this fear that somehow you've been it's it's you know,
• 57:29
  Speaker 1: you it's fear of being exposed or whatever you want
• 57:32
  Speaker 1: to however you want to read that. I'm sure a
• 57:34
  Speaker 1: professional therapist will give me the give me the official information.
• 57:41
  Speaker 1: official take on this in one of my Ask Chuck questions.
• 57:46
  Speaker 1: But the way politics works now, it's almost as if
• 57:51
  Speaker 1: you're saying, okay, I'm just going to, you know, I'm
• 57:54
  Speaker 1: going to bear it all, warts and all, you know,
• 57:58
  Speaker 1: here it is. And if that's the way we conduct politics,
• 58:03
  Speaker 1: then only the shameless are going to run for office.
• 58:05
  Speaker 1: Only the wannabe celebrities, the shitty influencers who just think
• 58:09
  Speaker 1: politics is a way to make a buck. that I'm
• 58:12
  Speaker 1: getting into politics to either become famous or make money.
• 58:16
  Speaker 1: And Donald Trump has shown that you can basically be
• 58:20
  Speaker 1: a failed celebrity in any other walk of life, but
• 58:26
  Speaker 1: find success in politics. He also has shown that you
• 58:30
  Speaker 1: can make money by, shoot, I mean, a lot of
• 58:33
  Speaker 1: people get rich without even winning an election in politics.
• 58:39
  Speaker 1: Can I introduce you to somebody like Alan Keyes? You
• 58:43
  Speaker 1: can Google him or chat GPT to find out what
• 58:45
  Speaker 1: it is. But this is a guy who was basically
• 58:47
  Speaker 1: a professional candidate for a long time, ran for president
• 58:51
  Speaker 1: multiple times, was the fill-in Senate candidate in Illinois against
• 58:56
  Speaker 1: Barack Obama, I guess most infamously in 2004. And for
• 59:01
  Speaker 1: a brief period of time, had a show on MSNBC
• 59:03
  Speaker 1: called Alan Keyes is Making Sense. I never did appear
• 59:07
  Speaker 1: on it. for what it's worth. The point is, is
• 59:18
  Speaker 1: that if we don't want politics to just simply be
• 59:21
  Speaker 1: taken up by the grifters and the assholes, then we've
• 59:26
  Speaker 1: really got to condemn tactics like this one. All right.
• 59:33
  Speaker 1: Because it's not just the advertisement itself, right? It's the
• 59:37
  Speaker 1: calculation behind this ad. And then you're watching how JD
• 59:42
  Speaker 1: Vance is responding to it. What's amazing is that the
• 59:46
  Speaker 1: Ramaswamy campaign, they message tested this ad. My friends at
• 59:51
  Speaker 1: the hotline, one of their reporters, got a hold of
• 59:55
  Speaker 1: the screenshot, basically a polling firm on behalf of the
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 1: Ramaswamy campaign, contacted people and saying, hey, do you mind
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 1: taking a survey? And as part of the survey was
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 1: to watch this ad with Amy Acton's estranged mother, the
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 1: mother who stayed married to the man who sexually assaulted
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 1: Amy Acton when she was 12 years old. Just remember,
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 1: all of these facts were known by the Ramaswamy campaign.
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 1: and they aired this ad anyway. Then they put $ 4
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 1: million behind it. So they message tested it. Now they
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 1: wanna put more money behind it. Now the Acton campaign
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 1: is out with a response ad. It features her brother
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 1: who noted that it's just, it's painful that they had
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 1: to do the ad, but you know what's, look, Acton's
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 1: been running a very smart campaign from the beginning. The
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 1: fact that they knew that Ramaswami was capable of doing
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 1: this and they were sort of had a plan ready
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 1: to go. I mean, it tells you they were being
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 1: smart and it tells you they knew exactly who Ramaswami was.
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 1: By the way, Nikki Haley, she's not laughing at this.
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 1: She's just reminding people. I tried to tell you this
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 1: guy was a bad guy, that this was a bad guy.
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 1: What really bothers me is that This isn't his decision alone.
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 1: There's a whole bunch of people he's paying who hope
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 1: to have a future in campaign politics after this failed
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 1: campaign ends in disaster on the launch pad. And I'll
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 1: tell you this, you have Ramaswamy on your resume, you're
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 1: going to have a hard time getting a job. This
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 1: is the single, I think, most embarrassing, most disgusting and
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 1: despicable decision a major campaign has done. Again, They exploited
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 1: the trauma of somebody's childhood trauma. That's what they did.
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 1: And it wasn't just any trauma. It's sexual assault. I
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 1: thought this was the party that cared a lot about
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 1: what Jeffrey Epstein did, was worried about the trafficking of
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 1: young people and all of these things. I'm old enough
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 1: to remember when JD Vance cared about these things. Now,
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 1: what does JD Vance do? J.D. Vance didn't simply decline
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 1: to criticize the ad. He went after other Republicans who
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 1: were criticizing it. By the way, John Husted was asked
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 1: about it. And he was asked about it after Vance
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 1: goes to the state and basically embraces this strategy by Ramaswamy.
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 1: And Husted simply said, I wouldn't have done this ad.
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 1: Of course, anything more and he starts a fight. I mean,
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 1: I sort of at this point, I'm sorry he's not
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 1: speaking out more about it. But politically, I understand the
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 1: vice grip he feels like he's in. But Vance criticized
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 1: Republicans who decided to criticize. So if a Republican thought
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 1: that they were disgusted by this decision, Vance thinks that
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 1: was weak. Vance said he was disgusted by Republicans who
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 1: were complaining about the ad rather than focusing on winning
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 1: the election. Winning isn't everything. It's the only thing to J.D. Vance. Now,
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 1: his message was, well, politics is a tough business. Republicans
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 1: should stop whining and go in. All right. All right, Mr.
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 1: Vice President. What's interesting here is Vance is not, in
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 1: his own bizarre way, he's not defending the factual merits
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 1: of the act. He's not explaining why Acton's mother's account
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 1: should be believed over Acton's or why this particular family
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 1: dispute is relevant to who should govern Ohio. He's defending
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 1: the willingness to use the tactic. And he's suggesting that
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 1: Republicans who object to it are somehow insufficiently committed to winning.
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 1: This is the Republican Party that Donald Trump and J.D.
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 1: Vance believe exists. This is insulting to other Republicans. If
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 1: you've got a moral compass, J.D. Vance doesn't want you
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 1: as a member of the Republican Party. That's the message
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 1: he just sent. Because once winning becomes the answer to
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 1: every single objection, what exactly is left that a candidate
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 1: shouldn't do? What's out of bounds? If this is not
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 1: out of bounds, then what is out of bounds? I mean, look,
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 1: I don't believe this is good politics. I think this
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 1: is going... This is taking a bad situation of Republicans
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 1: and making it worse. And they are creating, I'm not,
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 1: I think the backlash from this is going to go
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 1: way down the ballot. And maybe in some ways, this is,
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 1: it was a moment like this that people needed to realize,
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 1: oh my God, what the hell have we greenlit with
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 1: the Trump era? For years, we've watched Republican politicians defend
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 1: conduct they would have condemned had it come from a Democrat.
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 1: And it's usually on the grounds of, well, the alternative
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 1: would be worse. And now we're applying that same logic
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 1: to campaign tactics. Vance is not making the case that
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 1: this is appropriate or fair. He's just saying, well, everything
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 1: is fair if it's about winning. So, I... Look, I
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 1: guess Vance is making the case that he wants to
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 1: be Trump's heir apparent. He's like, no, no, no, no.
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 1: I'll go as low and as disgusting as Trump will
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 1: in order to win over the MAGA constituency. But think
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 1: about what he, think about the contempt Vance has for
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 1: his own supporters. He thinks they think this is a
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 1: good thing. The author of Hillbilly Elegy. I'm curious what
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 1: the author, J.D. Vance, the guy who wrote Hillbilly Elegy,
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 1: I'm curious what he would think of Amy Acton's story.
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 1: The guy I met in 2016, who was the author
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 1: of Hillbilly Elegy, I think would have a lot of
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 1: empathy for Amy Acton. The guy who's become Donald Trump's
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 1: vice president and who suddenly wants the job himself has
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 1: decided all's fair. And we wonder why we have no
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 1: moral compass when it comes to our foreign policy. Right?
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 1: Everything is transactional. No moral compass when it comes to
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 1: what we're doing with AI. But look, I think Ohio
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 1: is giving us a preview of a fight Republicans are
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 1: going to end up having after this election. If Ramaswamy loses,
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 1: I think this, look, it's clear he didn't think he
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 1: could win any other way. So he decided to throw
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 1: this Hail Mary. So I hope if he loses, Republicans
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 1: conclude that it went too far and that the tactics
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 1: backfired and that voters were looking for something that weren't
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 1: going to reward this. But what if Vance's answer is, no,
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 1: we just weren't aggressive enough. Republicans needed to fight harder.
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 1: And the problem was the party's unwillingness to fully embrace
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 1: the approach Vance is defending. We know that's going to
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 1: be Trump's excuse. He's going to say that Republicans were
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 1: too weak. They didn't get behind Paxton. Again, Trump and
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 1: Vance are basically criticizing any Republican who has a moral
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 1: compass or an ethical bone in their body. Because this
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 1: is immoral and it's unethical. Bottom line. It's why I
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 1: think this, look, I don't know whether I would lump
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 1: this in with the corruption message per se, right? But
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 1: it's corruption, it's character, right? Look, we know what's driving
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 1: this election is the fact that Trump's policies have made
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 1: life harder on anybody who doesn't have money in the
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 1: stock market. Right? That's a fact. That's the big driver
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 1: of this election. But the difference between Democrats having a
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 1: good night and winning a tsunami is going to be
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 1: this character and corruption stuff. Be it this disgusting, horrendous
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 1: thing Ramaswamy did. Look, I think this is disqualifying, period.
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 1: Disqualifying from doing business. I wouldn't do business with a guy.
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 1: And again, I can't believe there hasn't been resignations from
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 1: his campaign. There are going to be people, if you
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 1: stick with that campaign, you put that on your resume,
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 1: you're not getting hired by any mainstream Republican if he
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 1: loses as badly as I think he's going to lose
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 1: on this. It's something folks need to keep in mind.
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 1: And what's interesting is the timing of this, right? We're
• 1:08:59
  Speaker 1: getting a few more... corruption stories. We're seeing corruption. Again,
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 1: as I reminded you the other day, the corruption in 06,
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 1: corruption was this cherry on top, as Chris and I
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 1: were discussing on Super Tuesday for the Democratic wave. This
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 1: character assassination that Ramaswamy is attempting on Amy Acton coupled
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 1: with a more pay to play schemes and what we've
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 1: seen with Putin and Zelensky and Elon Musk. And it's
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 1: just been, it's, it's, it's not that voters are voting
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 1: on Putin or foreign policy, but they're voting on the
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 1: idea that it's unelected corrupt billionaire friends of the president
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 1: get to make these decisions and not you and I
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 1: and everyday people. All right. Uh, before we get to
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 1: my interview with Bill Cohen, uh, and again, a fascinating, um,
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 1: sort of journey through the world of private equity, these
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 1: media conglomerates and where things are going. I want to
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 1: get it, what I wrote in my sub stack this week,
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 1: which is for those of you also, you get it
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 1: on Newsphere. But anyway, so I wrote a column this
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 1: week about four pieces of information that I'd most like
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 1: to have before election day, right? And the premise is
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 1: pretty simple. Rather than I didn't want to spend another
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 1: column trying to predict what's going to happen on November 3rd.
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 1: But instead, I wanted to focus on here's what I
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 1: don't know yet. And if we knew the answer, I'd
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 1: be able to give you a better projection. All right,
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 1: now I just want to give you a brief, quick
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 1: little rundown of the column I wrote this week. I
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 1: hope you will take a look at the whole thing.
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 1: I hope you subscribe either to my work on Newsphere.
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 1: There's a lot of great contributors. It is worth the
• 1:10:42
  Speaker 1: price every month there. Obviously, my Substack is also free.
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 1: You can get that there as well. But either way,
• 1:10:48
  Speaker 1: please take a– I hope you get a chance to
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 1: read the whole thing. But basically what I wrote is
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 1: a column about four pieces of information that if I
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 1: had it now, I'd have a better idea of what
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 1: was going to happen on Election Day. I don't need
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 1: to continue to paint the picture of just how much
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 1: that this landscape is deteriorating for the Republicans. But it's the–
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 1: but let me give you some specifics here of– What
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 1: I most would like to know at the moment. First
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 1: question happens to be about those are about voters who
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 1: somewhat disapprove of Donald Trump's job as president. The somewhat
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 1: job approvers. It's somewhere depending, you know, the four part.
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 1: We learned this quite well during the 2022 midterms. The
• 1:11:33
  Speaker 1: four part job approval question with president is a really
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 1: good one. You know, do you strongly approve, somewhat approve,
• 1:11:40
  Speaker 1: somewhat disapprove, strongly disapprove? We know with Trump, the strongly
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 1: disapproved is over 50%. But for his disapproval, the 60s
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 1: is another anywhere from about 10 to 14%, depending on
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 1: the poll, of the electorate who only somewhat disapproves of Trump.
• 1:11:58
  Speaker 1: And who are these people? These are, you know, this
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 1: is a group that the somewhat job disapprovers of Joe
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 1: Biden ended up still voting for. narrowly voting for more
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 1: Democratic candidates in 2022, right? Among the generic ballot, among
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 1: those that somewhat disapproved of the job Joe Biden was doing,
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 1: Democrats won those voters 49-45 in 2022. Well, according to
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 1: polling right now, among the somewhat job disapprovers, Republicans are
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 1: still winning those voters by 20 points. Now, in 2018,
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 1: Trump got walloped among all disapprovers. But right now, those
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 1: that are calling themselves somewhat disapprovers of Trump's job, they're
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 1: pretty rank and file Republicans. And right now, they're still
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 1: sticking with the Republican candidate. Republicans are winning this group
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 1: of voters by 15 to 20 points. If you see
• 1:13:00
  Speaker 1: this get to only a single digit lead for Republicans
• 1:13:04
  Speaker 1: among those, this will tell you that you actually have
• 1:13:07
  Speaker 1: Republicans that are leaving Trump and voting Democratic. Democratic, right?
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 1: In bigger numbers than just two, three, or four points. So,
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 1: you know, what percentage of those that somewhat disapprove of
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 1: Trump's job are not going to vote Republican, right? You
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 1: tell me that answer, I'll tell you how big this
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 1: wave is. The second unknown, it's something I touched on
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 1: earlier in this broadcast, it's younger voters. What will be
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 1: the percentage of this electorate will be voters under the
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 1: age of 30? In 2018, It was 13% of the electorate.
• 1:13:42
  Speaker 1: In 2022, it was 12%. Obviously, Democrats did better in
• 1:13:45
  Speaker 1: 18 than they did in 22. Well, the percentage of
• 1:13:48
  Speaker 1: the electorate among young voters was slightly higher. 2020, the
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 1: percentage of the electorate was 17% of voters under 30. 2024,
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 1: it was 14%. Democrats win a presidential election when 17%
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 1: of the electorate is under the age of 30. They
• 1:13:58
  Speaker 1: lose a presidential electorate when 14% of the electorate is
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 1: under the age of 30. Not saying that that is
• 1:14:09
  Speaker 1: the only reason they went from winning to losing in
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 1: 20 to 24, but you get my point. Anything that
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 1: sits at, frankly, 14 or above, and you're looking at
• 1:14:20
  Speaker 1: a pretty, as we know, a pretty big night on
• 1:14:25
  Speaker 1: that front. So how's Gen Z going to vote? The
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 1: third unknown is Latino voters. How decisive will Latino voters
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 1: be for Democrats? it was one of the biggest stories
• 1:14:37
  Speaker 1: in 2024 was Trump's improvement with Latino voters, many of
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 1: whom were frustrated with inflation, the cost of living, and frankly,
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 1: I think, thought the Democrats culturally were moving too far
• 1:14:49
  Speaker 1: to the left. But now we're seeing those voters come
• 1:14:52
  Speaker 1: back towards the Democrats. Almost all of it has to
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 1: do with the economy, but another part of it has
• 1:14:55
  Speaker 1: to do with immigration enforcement. Because there's a difference between
• 1:14:59
  Speaker 1: many Latino voters supported stronger border security, but they didn't
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 1: support tactics that this administration is employing in communities around
• 1:15:07
  Speaker 1: the country that seem to target people simply how they
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 1: look or whether their last name ends in C. And
• 1:15:13
  Speaker 1: how big is that shift? It's one thing for that
• 1:15:16
  Speaker 1: shift to be big on the congressional level. But if
• 1:15:18
  Speaker 1: this shift is decisive up and down the ballot, well,
• 1:15:22
  Speaker 1: then that's when you know Texas or Florida governor comes
• 1:15:28
  Speaker 1: into play, right? If Democrats win Florida and or Texas governor,
• 1:15:34
  Speaker 1: it'll be because there was a massive shift of Latino
• 1:15:37
  Speaker 1: voters from the Republicans to the Democrats. Right now, we
• 1:15:41
  Speaker 1: see more of that shift in Senate races than we
• 1:15:43
  Speaker 1: are seeing. And believe it or not, Tallarico has been
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 1: doing better with Latino voters than the Latino nominee, Latina
• 1:15:51
  Speaker 1: nominee for governor. I think that number is going to grow.
• 1:15:54
  Speaker 1: I think now that more Latinos believe she can win,
• 1:15:59
  Speaker 1: you'll start to see that number. We had a little
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 1: bit of that with Barack Obama early. Black voters weren't all,
• 1:16:06
  Speaker 1: didn't jump quickly on board. Obama was just, well, can
• 1:16:11
  Speaker 1: he win? And then when it looked like he could
• 1:16:14
  Speaker 1: win and he was going to get support from the
• 1:16:16
  Speaker 1: white community, then all of a sudden his support among
• 1:16:20
  Speaker 1: African-Americans grew exponentially. I think that possibility for Gina Enosa
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 1: is there. And then the fourth unknown is whether the
• 1:16:28
  Speaker 1: Democratic brand is going to be a problem that prevents
• 1:16:35
  Speaker 1: certain Democrats from getting across the finish line. I think, look,
• 1:16:37
  Speaker 1: I think if Gina Hinojosa comes up short, if David
• 1:16:40
  Speaker 1: Jolly comes up short, I think we'll say it's a
• 1:16:42
  Speaker 1: brand issue more than anything else. I think if Annie Andrews,
• 1:16:46
  Speaker 1: you know, Darlene Graham is very vulnerable, but the Democratic
• 1:16:49
  Speaker 1: brand is just in tatters in a place like South Carolina.
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 1: If the Democratic brand were slightly better, I think we'd
• 1:16:58
  Speaker 1: be talking about South Carolina the way we're talking about
• 1:17:00
  Speaker 1: Kansas and Iowa when it comes to that. Now, she
• 1:17:03
  Speaker 1: could still win because many of these Democrats have gone
• 1:17:07
  Speaker 1: out of their way to basically distance themselves from the
• 1:17:11
  Speaker 1: stereotype of the National Party. Annie Andrews is a great example.
• 1:17:13
  Speaker 1: She she went to candidate the camera wearing her white coat.
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 1: She's a medical doctor to say, I have never done
• 1:17:20
  Speaker 1: any gender transition surgeries and nor would I ever do
• 1:17:23
  Speaker 1: something like that. And I believe in fairness and women's sports.
• 1:17:27
  Speaker 1: And she would direct on that issue. Josh Turek went
• 1:17:31
  Speaker 1: direct to camera on that issue. You've seen Tallarico do this.
• 1:17:35
  Speaker 1: You've seen Gina Yiannou say we are not relitigating some
• 1:17:38
  Speaker 1: of the culture wars in the legislature if she gets elected.
• 1:17:41
  Speaker 1: You've seen Adam Hamilton say similar things. So it's possible
• 1:17:45
  Speaker 1: that the candidates overcome the brand because they've gone out
• 1:17:49
  Speaker 1: of their way to say, hey, I have my own brand.
• 1:17:51
  Speaker 1: I'm not going to be defined by the National Democratic Party.
• 1:17:57
  Speaker 1: So those are the ingredients there. This is what goes
• 1:18:02
  Speaker 1: from wave to tsunami, right? Do Latino voters shift Democratic
• 1:18:09
  Speaker 1: up and down the ballot? Do young voters turn out
• 1:18:12
  Speaker 1: in a substantial way that's greater than what we saw
• 1:18:15
  Speaker 1: in 18 or 22? Do the people who somewhat disapprove
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 1: of Trump's job, which are more likely to be the
• 1:18:23
  Speaker 1: Republican and independent, Republican-leaning independents, do they punish Republicans for
• 1:18:32
  Speaker 1: their disappointment in Trump and essentially abandon their party for
• 1:18:36
  Speaker 1: a cycle, right? This is why it is hard to
• 1:18:41
  Speaker 1: forecast something bigger than just sort of a generic sort
• 1:18:45
  Speaker 1: of check on the party in power type of election.
• 1:18:48
  Speaker 1: So if I knew those four things, I think I'd
• 1:18:51
  Speaker 1: have a better off feeling comfortable saying one way, being
• 1:18:54
  Speaker 1: more definitive, feeling, yes, this is an 06 wave, or yes,
• 1:18:59
  Speaker 1: this is a 1994-like tsunami. As Chuck... All right, let's
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 1: do a little Ask Chuck. This is where I guess
• 1:19:14
  Speaker 1: I start doing my Trump dance. I know some of
• 1:19:17
  Speaker 1: you don't want me to do that. Oh, I got
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 1: a Go Tigers. Oh, it's not a Go Tigers. It's
• 1:19:23
  Speaker 1: a Mizzou Tigers. So I can't do my Ed Ogeron here. Anyway,
• 1:19:30
  Speaker 1: Shane here, still proudly hailing from Missouri's original and controversial
• 1:19:35
  Speaker 1: 5th Congressional District. With the mess surrounding our congressional map,
• 1:19:38
  Speaker 1: you mentioned the upcoming election could potentially be thrown out
• 1:19:40
  Speaker 1: and or ruled void. But what would that actually mean
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 1: for voters? Would we have to hold another primary in
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 1: a special election or would the process look different? Seems
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 1: like following Texas's approach a few years back could have
• 1:19:52
  Speaker 1: saved everyone a lot of headaches. Yes. On another note,
• 1:19:55
  Speaker 1: I knew Ole Miss would be tough for Mizzou, but
• 1:19:57
  Speaker 1: that loss really stung. Thankfully, we got a bye week
• 1:19:59
  Speaker 1: to recover before Arkansas go Tigers M-I-Z. Listen. Missouri needs
• 1:20:05
  Speaker 1: to win a road game, right? I mean, we've seen that.
• 1:20:07
  Speaker 1: What is it? It's a, man, I'm sure, and I
• 1:20:10
  Speaker 1: know you've seen it. It's like one in 18 against
• 1:20:12
  Speaker 1: ranked teams on the road or something like that. All right,
• 1:20:15
  Speaker 1: now to the serious part of your question. Like I said,
• 1:20:18
  Speaker 1: gotta win a road game. Come on, Mizzou. And I
• 1:20:22
  Speaker 1: have family who went to Mizzou, multiple family members. So
• 1:20:25
  Speaker 1: they're part of my larger orbit of schools I would
• 1:20:28
  Speaker 1: like to see succeed. So just know, that, uh, this is,
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 1: this is criticism that comes from a, from a, from
• 1:20:39
  Speaker 1: a loving place. Um, but as for what you're talking about, look,
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 1: it will be a revote of some sort, right? And,
• 1:20:46
  Speaker 1: and I look, all of this depends. It would be
• 1:20:49
  Speaker 1: up to a voter to sue. It could be up
• 1:20:52
  Speaker 1: to a candidate to sue. It's not clear who would
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 1: have standing. Um, a voter would have standing, you know,
• 1:20:58
  Speaker 1: but a candidate would have standing because the primary was
• 1:21:01
  Speaker 1: a different, um, congressional, literally different math than what was
• 1:21:07
  Speaker 1: used for the general. You know the Texas model, it
• 1:21:11
  Speaker 1: sounds like, which was when they went through this before,
• 1:21:13
  Speaker 1: they essentially were able to do it in time so
• 1:21:16
  Speaker 1: that the November election was everybody on the same ballot,
• 1:21:20
  Speaker 1: sort of an all-party primary. And if nobody got 50%,
• 1:21:23
  Speaker 1: the top two met in a runoff in December. So look,
• 1:21:28
  Speaker 1: and by the way, that election schedule was dictated by
• 1:21:31
  Speaker 1: a federal judge. It was not something that was done
• 1:21:35
  Speaker 1: by the state of Texas. A federal judge said, this
• 1:21:37
  Speaker 1: is how you're going to do it. So it would take,
• 1:21:40
  Speaker 1: my guess is if this happens, it will be a
• 1:21:44
  Speaker 1: literally court-ordered election and a court-ordered process of how said
• 1:21:49
  Speaker 1: election was going. The best precedent we have to look
• 1:21:54
  Speaker 1: back on to potentially use as a model is that
• 1:21:57
  Speaker 1: Texas precedent from the mid-' 90s. But to have it, it's
• 1:22:04
  Speaker 1: possible to try to avoid this mess because it, that
• 1:22:07
  Speaker 1: they will go with, you know, where the, where the
• 1:22:10
  Speaker 1: courts might not, um, it'll be interesting to see who
• 1:22:14
  Speaker 1: would have standing to file a suit on this, whether
• 1:22:17
  Speaker 1: it's a, a candidate who lost in a, in the
• 1:22:19
  Speaker 1: other primary, didn't get a chance to run on this one.
• 1:22:21
  Speaker 1: I mean, just look at your fifth congressional district, who
• 1:22:24
  Speaker 1: would have, you know, who would have run and who
• 1:22:28
  Speaker 1: wouldn't have run depending on right where, where things were. So, um,
• 1:22:35
  Speaker 1: But I do think that that suit would have to
• 1:22:37
  Speaker 1: be filed before certification for what it's worth on that front.
• 1:22:42
  Speaker 1: All right. Next question comes from Reggie. And he says, hey,
• 1:22:45
  Speaker 1: going back to your NBC days, you've always been great
• 1:22:47
  Speaker 1: at identifying key counties to watch on election night. So
• 1:22:51
  Speaker 1: which bellwether counties are on your radar this year? Is
• 1:22:54
  Speaker 1: it Austin, City Slicker in Texas, House District 48, and Texas'
• 1:22:58
  Speaker 1: 27th Congressional District? I'm particularly curious about rural farming counties
• 1:23:02
  Speaker 1: across West Texas, Kansas, Nebraska, and Iowa. where even narrowing
• 1:23:07
  Speaker 1: Trump's previous three to one or four to one margin
• 1:23:10
  Speaker 1: to two to one could signal serious trouble for Republicans.
• 1:23:13
  Speaker 1: Are you watching places like Midland, Lubbock, Amarillo, Dodge City
• 1:23:16
  Speaker 1: for signs of a shift towards purple? Historically, do major
• 1:23:19
  Speaker 1: electoral waves affect federal and statewide races equally? Or can
• 1:23:22
  Speaker 1: the impact be concentrated at one level? Thanks for the
• 1:23:25
  Speaker 1: great program. Well, look, you are. Yes. And in fact,
• 1:23:30
  Speaker 1: that I'm going to have in the next. What do
• 1:23:33
  Speaker 1: I have? How many more episodes? of the Todd cast
• 1:23:36
  Speaker 1: and super Tuesday. I think I'm going to have at
• 1:23:37
  Speaker 1: least four more. Look, Chris and I are going to
• 1:23:40
  Speaker 1: do an interesting voters guide. I'm going to do a
• 1:23:43
  Speaker 1: viewer's guide a week from now going into election election
• 1:23:47
  Speaker 1: day so that you have that sort of, sort of
• 1:23:50
  Speaker 1: how to watch the night hour by hour. But next Wednesday,
• 1:23:53
  Speaker 1: I do plan to get deeper into counties, but you know,
• 1:23:56
  Speaker 1: this is the first competitive election in Texas that we
• 1:23:59
  Speaker 1: knew was going to happen in advance, right? The Beto election,
• 1:24:02
  Speaker 1: Ted Cruz, the fact that that ended up close, nobody
• 1:24:05
  Speaker 1: believed it was close. And, you know, many of us didn't,
• 1:24:08
  Speaker 1: you know, but ultimately you're correct in what you're identifying
• 1:24:13
  Speaker 1: that it isn't necessarily swing counties, but they're, look, I'm fascinated.
• 1:24:17
  Speaker 1: North Texas is what I'm obsessed with. Part of it
• 1:24:20
  Speaker 1: is I spend more time in North Texas because my
• 1:24:22
  Speaker 1: son goes to school in Dallas, but Tarrant County in particular, right?
• 1:24:27
  Speaker 1: We've been watching this county slowly move from red to purple. Um,
• 1:24:33
  Speaker 1: what happens in Tarrant County? Right. Uh, I, that's, I
• 1:24:39
  Speaker 1: do think margins though will matter, right? Tarrant could be swinging.
• 1:24:42
  Speaker 1: Tarrant could be one where I think Biden carried Tarrant, uh,
• 1:24:46
  Speaker 1: in 2020. Um, if he didn't, he came awfully close,
• 1:24:51
  Speaker 1: but those, you know, that's one quickie, you know, I
• 1:24:54
  Speaker 1: could tell you, but it's more about margins, right? What's
• 1:24:57
  Speaker 1: the margin in Harris? What's the margin of Bayer? What's
• 1:25:00
  Speaker 1: the margin in Travis? And then going, you know, it's
• 1:25:04
  Speaker 1: also the raw turnout, right? Paxton could have a four
• 1:25:08
  Speaker 1: or five to one advantage in some of these counties,
• 1:25:10
  Speaker 1: but if turnout is down 10%, well, suddenly that's a hollow, right?
• 1:25:15
  Speaker 1: Those are hollow advantages too. So, right, there's different ways
• 1:25:18
  Speaker 1: to look at it. It's not just what are the
• 1:25:20
  Speaker 1: margins in these rural areas? What is the raw turnout
• 1:25:24
  Speaker 1: in these rural areas? And then obviously it's all the
• 1:25:26
  Speaker 1: South Texas counties, right? All of those counties that swung
• 1:25:30
  Speaker 1: towards Trump, not all of them ended up being carried
• 1:25:33
  Speaker 1: by Trump, but they certainly swung towards him. What is
• 1:25:35
  Speaker 1: the snapback and how big is the snapback? So, look,
• 1:25:38
  Speaker 1: I'm giving you that general overview, but there's basically five
• 1:25:43
  Speaker 1: or six watch counties that I have in all of
• 1:25:46
  Speaker 1: these key Senate races, Kansas, Iowa, Ohio, Texas. And you
• 1:25:50
  Speaker 1: have reminded me that I need I that is we
• 1:25:54
  Speaker 1: are going to have that is going to be part
• 1:25:57
  Speaker 1: of the particularly the Wednesday, next Wednesday's episode of the
• 1:26:02
  Speaker 1: Todd cast, we will spend a lot of time on
• 1:26:05
  Speaker 1: essentially the, the six States, because I would, you know,
• 1:26:09
  Speaker 1: one of the things I didn't, one of the things
• 1:26:14
  Speaker 1: that's clear to me right now is Senate Democrats do
• 1:26:18
  Speaker 1: not believe that they're not, they're not counting on winning Kansas.
• 1:26:23
  Speaker 1: They're not counting on winning Nebraska. They're not counting on
• 1:26:25
  Speaker 1: winning South Carolina, the path, to the Senate majority goes
• 1:26:30
  Speaker 1: through six states, I think, as far as Senate Democrats
• 1:26:33
  Speaker 1: are concerned. Maine and Michigan on one side, two states
• 1:26:36
  Speaker 1: that they're even or maybe slightly behind in. And then
• 1:26:41
  Speaker 1: North Carolina, Ohio, Alaska, Iowa, Texas. So seven, excuse me.
• 1:26:47
  Speaker 1: So it's seven states that the assumption is that's where
• 1:26:53
  Speaker 1: the Senate is going to be decided. Now, If Kansas
• 1:26:56
  Speaker 1: ends up flipping, South Carolina ends up flipping, that's how
• 1:26:58
  Speaker 1: Democrats go from 51 Senate seats to 52, 53, 54.
• 1:27:04
  Speaker 1: But that gets into the tsunami territory, right? That gets
• 1:27:07
  Speaker 1: into Republicans actually leaving the party and voting for Democrats.
• 1:27:12
  Speaker 1: That's what it takes for them to win in South Carolina,
• 1:27:15
  Speaker 1: win in Nebraska, and win in Kansas. Another question. from
• 1:27:24
  Speaker 1: Missouri's Fifth District. We have Shane, who was earlier, right? Well,
• 1:27:28
  Speaker 1: now I got Matt writing in from Missouri's Fifth. Man,
• 1:27:30
  Speaker 1: we are killing it in the Kansas City market. See,
• 1:27:33
  Speaker 1: this is what happened. I visit Kansas City, and we
• 1:27:36
  Speaker 1: just add more and more great listeners and viewers. So anyway,
• 1:27:40
  Speaker 1: Matt in Missouri's Fifth writes, hey, I avoid social media religiously,
• 1:27:44
  Speaker 1: so I've missed the YMCA speculation and Trump's newfound admiration
• 1:27:48
  Speaker 1: for the male physique. But hearing you and Chris discuss
• 1:27:51
  Speaker 1: how Pete Hegseth always seems to get the benefit of
• 1:27:53
  Speaker 1: the doubt reminded me of Trump's treatment of Vladimir Putin.
• 1:27:56
  Speaker 1: As ridiculous as it sounds, could Trump's Russia-friendly foreign policy
• 1:27:59
  Speaker 1: simply come down to a man crush? Those shirtless horseback
• 1:28:03
  Speaker 1: photos certainly made an impression. And speaking of your October
• 1:28:07
  Speaker 1: 19th episode, you asked how much Trump cares about the
• 1:28:10
  Speaker 1: future of the Republican Party, but perhaps the bigger question is,
• 1:28:13
  Speaker 1: how much does he care about the future of the
• 1:28:15
  Speaker 1: United States? Ouch. Look, Donald Trump cares about Donald Trump.
• 1:28:20
  Speaker 1: And Donald Trump's success can come at the expense of anybody,
• 1:28:24
  Speaker 1: as long as it comes with Donald Trump's success. And
• 1:28:29
  Speaker 1: in fact, when he would say, you know, you know,
• 1:28:32
  Speaker 1: if I win, the country wins, right? That's his mindset.
• 1:28:35
  Speaker 1: So in his own way, you know, if he's doing well,
• 1:28:38
  Speaker 1: then he thinks the country's doing well. I am convinced
• 1:28:41
  Speaker 1: why he doesn't fully appreciate this affordability issue is because
• 1:28:45
  Speaker 1: he does not interact with anybody that has a mortgage
• 1:28:51
  Speaker 1: or has to have a mortgage. He might have a
• 1:28:53
  Speaker 1: staffer or two that has a mortgage, but I don't
• 1:28:56
  Speaker 1: think he considers them peers. When he thinks about the peers,
• 1:29:00
  Speaker 1: the people he hangs out with, I think he's incredibly
• 1:29:03
  Speaker 1: out of touch. Look, I think you're– my guess is
• 1:29:10
  Speaker 1: Putin's too short for Trump on this front. But honestly,
• 1:29:16
  Speaker 1: it is the– I probably get more questions now about
• 1:29:19
  Speaker 1: this than anything else in my– from friends and family, right,
• 1:29:23
  Speaker 1: is Trump. What is going on? Is grandpa coming out
• 1:29:26
  Speaker 1: of the closet? It's the is sort of like, I
• 1:29:29
  Speaker 1: don't know. None of us know. But if you wanted
• 1:29:35
  Speaker 1: to read the tea leaves of of Trump, right, you YMCA,
• 1:29:39
  Speaker 1: he brags about that. You know, he knows that it's
• 1:29:41
  Speaker 1: the gay anthem. He's always been he's always been a
• 1:29:45
  Speaker 1: gay friendly candidate or boss or however you want to
• 1:29:48
  Speaker 1: do it. I mean, you know, he doesn't he's not
• 1:29:51
  Speaker 1: been a hypocrite on these issues. In fact, there was
• 1:29:55
  Speaker 1: a time it was, you know, his being friendly to
• 1:29:58
  Speaker 1: the gay community, being all that was seen as proof
• 1:30:01
  Speaker 1: that he was some liberal back in the day. Look,
• 1:30:10
  Speaker 1: I think this is a guy in his 80s who
• 1:30:12
  Speaker 1: no longer has a filter. And I think it means
• 1:30:16
  Speaker 1: that grandma and grandpa say the damnedest things. And you're like, whoa,
• 1:30:21
  Speaker 1: I didn't know that. Well. You know, now you do
• 1:30:25
  Speaker 1: type of thing. It's, look, so many things in the
• 1:30:35
  Speaker 1: Trump era are predictable. It's kind of nice to have
• 1:30:37
  Speaker 1: something unpredictable happen in the Trump era lately. And this
• 1:30:41
  Speaker 1: certainly was a plot twist that nobody saw coming here.
• 1:30:46
  Speaker 1: Are we in the penultimate episode of the Trump era, right?
• 1:30:50
  Speaker 1: So in theory, this is the type of, the type
• 1:30:53
  Speaker 1: of plot twist you get right in the second to
• 1:30:56
  Speaker 1: last episode. Right. If we, if we, if we assume
• 1:31:00
  Speaker 1: this is these two, this is the penultimate. And then we,
• 1:31:03
  Speaker 1: then we get the end state and the last episode
• 1:31:06
  Speaker 1: for the last two years. Anyway. All right. I got
• 1:31:11
  Speaker 1: Jonathan W. North Hampton, Massachusetts, the second district there in Massachusetts,
• 1:31:17
  Speaker 1: in the Bay state. He goes, Hey, I just heard
• 1:31:18
  Speaker 1: that the Republican lieutenant governor nominee in Massachusetts, a new
• 1:31:21
  Speaker 1: Bedford city councilor, who ran unopposed, suspended his campaign after
• 1:31:27
  Speaker 1: reportedly being arrested following a drunk driving crash over the weekend.
• 1:31:33
  Speaker 1: What does Massachusetts law say about replacing a nominee who
• 1:31:36
  Speaker 1: withdraws this close to election day? Does a Republican gubernatorial
• 1:31:39
  Speaker 1: nominee get to choose a replacement, or is there another process?
• 1:31:42
  Speaker 1: Just curious. Jonathan W., Well, Jonathan, well, look, he can
• 1:31:49
  Speaker 1: drop out, but there's no right. They're still elected together
• 1:31:53
  Speaker 1: as a ticket. Obviously, they're not going to win, but
• 1:31:57
  Speaker 1: he can get out of the race, but they can't
• 1:31:59
  Speaker 1: take his name off the ballot. Had it happened sooner
• 1:32:02
  Speaker 1: before the printing of ballots, the party could have put
• 1:32:04
  Speaker 1: on a replacement. But, you know, had he won, maybe
• 1:32:09
  Speaker 1: he declines the oath and then there's something else. But
• 1:32:13
  Speaker 1: the bottom line is his name has to stay on
• 1:32:14
  Speaker 1: the ballot. They cannot take his name off the ballot.
• 1:32:17
  Speaker 1: It is too late to do a replacement, any of
• 1:32:19
  Speaker 1: that business. So obviously, if there's a victory, then then
• 1:32:24
  Speaker 1: there's then there's a scenario here. But me thinks Maura
• 1:32:29
  Speaker 1: Healey and her lieutenant governor are going to are going
• 1:32:33
  Speaker 1: to end up victorious here. And we won't have to
• 1:32:35
  Speaker 1: figure figure this out post Election Day. But bottom line is,
• 1:32:38
  Speaker 1: it is if you're at a certain point once they
• 1:32:41
  Speaker 1: printed the ballots. I can think of a few circumstances
• 1:32:45
  Speaker 1: where literally you'd see a sticker over somebody's name, you know,
• 1:32:50
  Speaker 1: if a court ordered a person's name off the ballot.
• 1:32:52
  Speaker 1: But that usually only happens after ballot printing if, you know,
• 1:32:58
  Speaker 1: if there was somebody that was on there that shouldn't
• 1:33:01
  Speaker 1: have been on there or something like that. All right.
• 1:33:04
  Speaker 1: Nate in Pennsylvania's 3rd District comes in with the last
• 1:33:06
  Speaker 1: question of the show. Nate here from Pennsylvania 3, longtime
• 1:33:10
  Speaker 1: listener and aspiring First Time Question Club member. Well, welcome.
• 1:33:14
  Speaker 1: You made it. Good job, Nate. If Democrats win the
• 1:33:16
  Speaker 1: Senate this year, do you think eliminating the filibuster is inevitable,
• 1:33:19
  Speaker 1: especially with Manchin and Sinema no longer around to oppose it?
• 1:33:23
  Speaker 1: Did any current or incoming Democratic senators stand in the way?
• 1:33:26
  Speaker 1: And how would eliminating it shape Trump's final two years
• 1:33:29
  Speaker 1: and beyond? Also, love the college football talk. The Matt
• 1:33:31
  Speaker 1: Campbell era hasn't started quite as well as we'd hoped.
• 1:33:35
  Speaker 1: but we're still dreaming of another 87 festival moment. Thank you.
• 1:33:39
  Speaker 1: And we are. Yeah, really? You want to bring up
• 1:33:41
  Speaker 1: that Penn State moment? You know, if Vinny Chester Brady
• 1:33:44
  Speaker 1: hands the ball off to Alonzo Highsmith, instead of trying
• 1:33:47
  Speaker 1: to throw the ball there, Miami wins that game on
• 1:33:50
  Speaker 1: the last play. Anyway. To say that– you know, it's funny.
• 1:33:56
  Speaker 1: Miami's won five national titles, and the two games that
• 1:33:58
  Speaker 1: I think about the most in Miami is the two losses.
• 1:34:03
  Speaker 1: The Terry Porter flag that was thrown against Ohio State
• 1:34:06
  Speaker 1: in the 2000– two season, 2003 Fiesta Bowl and the 87, right? The,
• 1:34:13
  Speaker 1: the unofficial first BCS national title game. I say unofficial
• 1:34:16
  Speaker 1: because there was no BCS then, but the Fiesta Bowl
• 1:34:19
  Speaker 1: all on their own decided to offer Miami and Penn
• 1:34:22
  Speaker 1: State a chance to play for the national title. And
• 1:34:24
  Speaker 1: really what both Miami and Penn State did was made
• 1:34:27
  Speaker 1: the Fiesta Bowl a major bowl. They weren't always, they
• 1:34:29
  Speaker 1: weren't considered a major bowl until they pulled that off. Um,
• 1:34:36
  Speaker 1: So it's one of those that I think is, I mean,
• 1:34:38
  Speaker 1: it's historically relevant. I think Vinny is still throwing interceptions
• 1:34:42
  Speaker 1: from that game. But those two titles, it's probably the
• 1:34:45
  Speaker 1: way Pats fans feel about the two Eli Manning losses, right?
• 1:34:49
  Speaker 1: I think about those two losses because arguably the two
• 1:34:54
  Speaker 1: of the greatest collections of talent Miami ever had that
• 1:34:58
  Speaker 1: didn't win titles is that 86 Miami team, which was
• 1:35:02
  Speaker 1: better than the 87 team that did win a title.
• 1:35:05
  Speaker 1: And the O2 team was as good as the O1 team,
• 1:35:10
  Speaker 1: you know, with maybe the exception we didn't have Andre
• 1:35:13
  Speaker 1: Johnson and we didn't have Ed Reed on the O2 team.
• 1:35:18
  Speaker 1: We only had Sean Taylor on the O2 team. Anyway,
• 1:35:22
  Speaker 1: about the filibuster, I'm not convinced it goes. Because guess what?
• 1:35:27
  Speaker 1: There's a lot of Democratic senators who've been in the
• 1:35:29
  Speaker 1: minority who were probably happy that the filibuster was still there. So,
• 1:35:34
  Speaker 1: you know, one of the things that I've learned over
• 1:35:36
  Speaker 1: the years in the Senate with this filibuster issue is
• 1:35:38
  Speaker 1: that just when you think you've got the vote, somebody
• 1:35:42
  Speaker 1: new has decided maybe there's something to this filibuster. Do
• 1:35:46
  Speaker 1: I think they may change some of the rules of
• 1:35:48
  Speaker 1: the filibuster and how you do? Yes, I do. Maybe
• 1:35:52
  Speaker 1: forcing a little bit more talking, forcing, you know, creating
• 1:35:57
  Speaker 1: a different time limit or something like that. I could
• 1:35:59
  Speaker 1: see some changes. And remember— this is a, just a,
• 1:36:03
  Speaker 1: this is just a rules that the, that the Senate
• 1:36:06
  Speaker 1: will vote on when there is a new Senate and,
• 1:36:09
  Speaker 1: and they do these things. So, but I am not, um,
• 1:36:14
  Speaker 1: I am not convinced that the filibuster is, is definitely
• 1:36:18
  Speaker 1: gone here. Um, cause if there was no filibuster, there
• 1:36:22
  Speaker 1: might've been a safe act. And I wonder how Democrats
• 1:36:25
  Speaker 1: would have felt about that. So, um, I'm still a skeptic.
• 1:36:34
  Speaker 1: I'm trying to think. Let's say they win 52 Senate seats.
• 1:36:38
  Speaker 1: Is there 51 votes for ending the filibuster in that
• 1:36:42
  Speaker 1: new Senate? Is Maria Cantwell going to be against the filibuster?
• 1:36:47
  Speaker 1: Is Patty Murray? Is Alyssa Slotkin? Sherrod Brown? I don't know.
• 1:36:57
  Speaker 1: Adam Hamilton? We don't know, right? Who are the new
• 1:37:00
  Speaker 1: senators going to be? Are they going to be anti-filibuster?
• 1:37:03
  Speaker 1: Josh Turek? Everybody's so sure, right? And there's really no
• 1:37:09
  Speaker 1: need to get rid of it in the last two
• 1:37:11
  Speaker 1: years of Trump. And I don't know why you would
• 1:37:14
  Speaker 1: do that, tempt fate on that. So, you know, like
• 1:37:21
  Speaker 1: I said, I could see some changes to the filibuster
• 1:37:26
  Speaker 1: happening before I see a total elimination. Look, you know,
• 1:37:31
  Speaker 1: and you've heard me rant about this. I don't think
• 1:37:35
  Speaker 1: the filibuster is the problem. I think what has destroyed,
• 1:37:39
  Speaker 1: what the U.S. Senate has done is destroyed is when
• 1:37:42
  Speaker 1: they got rid of the filibuster for judicial nominees. That
• 1:37:47
  Speaker 1: has destroyed the credibility of the judiciary branch. We now
• 1:37:51
  Speaker 1: have red and blue robes because of that decision. So
• 1:37:57
  Speaker 1: I'm somebody who thinks that– What was done with the
• 1:38:02
  Speaker 1: judiciary has only made us more polarized and has only
• 1:38:06
  Speaker 1: made us more distrustful of the judiciary. We'd be a
• 1:38:08
  Speaker 1: lot better off if it took 60 or, frankly, 75 votes.
• 1:38:12
  Speaker 1: It should be 60 votes to confirm federal judges and
• 1:38:16
  Speaker 1: circuit judges, and I think it should be 75 votes
• 1:38:19
  Speaker 1: to confirm a Supreme Court justice. And I promise you,
• 1:38:22
  Speaker 1: you're going to get Supreme Court justices who are not politicians.
• 1:38:26
  Speaker 1: And isn't that what we actually want? It's what Alexander
• 1:38:31
  Speaker 1: Hamilton wanted. It was the argument he made in Federalist,
• 1:38:33
  Speaker 1: I believe, in 78. All right, with that... Let's talk
• 1:38:45
  Speaker 1: a little college football. Look, I don't know if we
• 1:38:47
  Speaker 1: can top what happened last week, but here's what I
• 1:38:50
  Speaker 1: do know. Whenever you think, oh, this is not going
• 1:38:56
  Speaker 1: to be that good of a week, that's the week
• 1:38:59
  Speaker 1: even more crazy stuff happens. But I'll start with my Hurricanes.
• 1:39:05
  Speaker 1: First of all, I'll give you a little bit of,
• 1:39:07
  Speaker 1: I know some of you want to keep track of
• 1:39:08
  Speaker 1: my comings and goings when it comes to college football.
• 1:39:12
  Speaker 1: So last week, We saw one of our children in
• 1:39:17
  Speaker 1: Miami and saw the Miami-Florida State game. Well, this week,
• 1:39:21
  Speaker 1: we're going to go to Dallas and see our other
• 1:39:24
  Speaker 1: child at an SMU game. And SMU is playing Cal. Now, unfortunately,
• 1:39:31
  Speaker 1: the good folks at the Four Letter Network have decided
• 1:39:37
  Speaker 1: that all SMU games apparently have to be at noon Eastern,
• 1:39:40
  Speaker 1: 11 a.m. Central time. Well, guess when the Miami-Pitt game is?
• 1:39:49
  Speaker 1: The Miami-Pitt game is at noon Eastern as well. Pitt
• 1:39:54
  Speaker 1: travels to Miami. Pat Narduzzi has already been whining and
• 1:40:01
  Speaker 1: complaining that Miami has a bigger budget for players than
• 1:40:07
  Speaker 1: he does. He is a serial complainer. Look, you're a
• 1:40:12
  Speaker 1: really good coach. You've put together a good program. Why
• 1:40:15
  Speaker 1: don't you just strap it up and, you know, say
• 1:40:20
  Speaker 1: what you have to say on the field and don't
• 1:40:25
  Speaker 1: behave the way you're behaving. I mean, I just, it's
• 1:40:29
  Speaker 1: a bad look, the whining and complaining. Oh, people try
• 1:40:32
  Speaker 1: to sign our quarterback. Well, go raise more money. None
• 1:40:38
  Speaker 1: of this is illegal. It is all legal. Don't complain
• 1:40:43
  Speaker 1: that it's not. But anyway, the point being is I'm
• 1:40:46
  Speaker 1: going to be live watching SMU and Cal, and I'm
• 1:40:51
  Speaker 1: going to be doing this while I perhaps have one ear.
• 1:40:55
  Speaker 1: I don't know if I'm... I'm about to confess something
• 1:40:58
  Speaker 1: that my son might not be realizing. So my son's
• 1:41:00
  Speaker 1: high school football games were at noon quite a bit.
• 1:41:05
  Speaker 1: And when he was playing high school football, Miami always
• 1:41:08
  Speaker 1: ended up in the noon slot because they were not
• 1:41:11
  Speaker 1: the number one team in the ACC, which... you know,
• 1:41:13
  Speaker 1: on any given week. So they were rarely getting the,
• 1:41:16
  Speaker 1: the three 30 or the seven 30 games. They're now
• 1:41:18
  Speaker 1: getting a lot more of the three 30 and the
• 1:41:20
  Speaker 1: seven 30 games, but Pitt's not a big draw this week.
• 1:41:23
  Speaker 1: So I think that they gave us the new game,
• 1:41:26
  Speaker 1: which frankly is a bigger, the irony is that I
• 1:41:28
  Speaker 1: think it's harder to play Miami when the sun is
• 1:41:32
  Speaker 1: out at in Miami than it is when the sun
• 1:41:35
  Speaker 1: is down humidity, all that stuff, especially for these boys
• 1:41:37
  Speaker 1: up North. But man, I've got, I literally going to
• 1:41:41
  Speaker 1: have one eye on the Miami Pitt game. I'm going
• 1:41:43
  Speaker 1: to be watching SMU Cal and it could be a
• 1:41:46
  Speaker 1: shootout or something like that. So anyway, I'm looking forward
• 1:41:51
  Speaker 1: to seeing my son. I'm looking forward to seeing SMU
• 1:41:54
  Speaker 1: beat Cal. Cal's been a real disappointment. I thought they
• 1:41:58
  Speaker 1: were going to be a real sleeper, a sleeper team
• 1:42:01
  Speaker 1: in the ACC this year, and they were not. I
• 1:42:03
  Speaker 1: think they've messed up the quarterback that we all now
• 1:42:08
  Speaker 1: refer to as initials because none of us want to
• 1:42:10
  Speaker 1: mispronounce his name. But other games, look, I think the
• 1:42:14
  Speaker 1: biggest game of the week is Ole Miss-Texas. And it
• 1:42:20
  Speaker 1: really is a playoff game, I think here, probably more
• 1:42:23
  Speaker 1: so for Texas, believe it or not. I mean, yes,
• 1:42:26
  Speaker 1: Texas has a great win against Ohio State, but now
• 1:42:29
  Speaker 1: they've got two losses. They really shouldn't have won that
• 1:42:32
  Speaker 1: Ohio State game, right? That was kind of Ryan Day
• 1:42:35
  Speaker 1: turtled the team. And that's why Texas and if Ole Miss,
• 1:42:40
  Speaker 1: you know, Ole Miss only has one loss. We kind
• 1:42:42
  Speaker 1: of forgot about Ole Miss, right? They beat LSU. Then
• 1:42:46
  Speaker 1: they go and get swamp stomped by the Gators in Gainesville.
• 1:42:53
  Speaker 1: And then we kind of sort of, you know, the
• 1:42:55
  Speaker 1: Ole Miss story is kind of quietly going, well, they're
• 1:42:57
  Speaker 1: still 5-1. They still got Trinidad Chambliss. I don't know
• 1:43:02
  Speaker 1: how Texas keeps up with Ole Miss. Ole Miss has
• 1:43:04
  Speaker 1: proven they can score on anybody. I know Texas has
• 1:43:07
  Speaker 1: a great defense, but I promise you, I think Ole
• 1:43:09
  Speaker 1: Miss will score more than 24 points against Texas. And
• 1:43:14
  Speaker 1: if Ole Miss scores 24 points, can Texas keep up?
• 1:43:19
  Speaker 1: Either way, Game of the day and most important one
• 1:43:23
  Speaker 1: for SEC playoff implications, it's the primetime game. It's easily
• 1:43:31
  Speaker 1: the best game of the night and the one that
• 1:43:33
  Speaker 1: I think will have the most impact on what we're
• 1:43:36
  Speaker 1: talking about. A few other games on my radar. Indiana
• 1:43:39
  Speaker 1: goes to Michigan, right? This is a chance we're now
• 1:43:43
  Speaker 1: not going to have. Indiana's got to face C.J. Carr's
• 1:43:46
  Speaker 1: little brother, who is another grandchild of Lloyd Carr. He is,
• 1:43:50
  Speaker 1: I guess, the new quarterback, the starting quarterback at Michigan,
• 1:43:53
  Speaker 1: which means Bryce Underwood is going to go into the portal.
• 1:43:56
  Speaker 1: Where does Bryce Underwood go? One of my favorite college
• 1:44:00
  Speaker 1: football gambling podcasts speculates it's going to be Florida State.
• 1:44:04
  Speaker 1: That'd be interesting if they end up with him. I'll
• 1:44:07
  Speaker 1: be curious of that. But either way, Indiana at Michigan.
• 1:44:11
  Speaker 1: Is there a little bit of a hangover for Indiana?
• 1:44:13
  Speaker 1: I know Indiana lost by literally a foot, less than
• 1:44:19
  Speaker 1: a foot on a foot, if you can do that
• 1:44:22
  Speaker 1: with that. Indiana's not going to score a lot of points.
• 1:44:29
  Speaker 1: Michigan's not going to score a lot of points. It's
• 1:44:30
  Speaker 1: going to be kind of a messy game, I'm guessing,
• 1:44:34
  Speaker 1: sloppy game. I don't know. I mean, I wouldn't want
• 1:44:41
  Speaker 1: to have to go to Michigan after losing a heartbreaker
• 1:44:43
  Speaker 1: at home to Ohio State. So I think it's a
• 1:44:46
  Speaker 1: big game for Indiana here to sort of make sure
• 1:44:50
  Speaker 1: they don't let Ohio State beat them twice. LSU goes
• 1:44:55
  Speaker 1: to Auburn. I think Auburn, right? That's a tough one.
• 1:45:01
  Speaker 1: You pull the upset and then you go home to
• 1:45:03
  Speaker 1: face LSU. I worry. I'm always– I got a lot
• 1:45:07
  Speaker 1: of family members. Pro Auburn. I want to be pro Auburn.
• 1:45:11
  Speaker 1: I'm a little nervous about this one. I don't feel
• 1:45:12
  Speaker 1: good about it. Sorry, guys. I just don't. On that one,
• 1:45:16
  Speaker 1: just because it feels like LSU, they're in, they can't
• 1:45:20
  Speaker 1: lose mode. They can't lose. And, you know, Kiffin with
• 1:45:23
  Speaker 1: his back against the wall. It's not always a team
• 1:45:27
  Speaker 1: I want to be on the other side of. And
• 1:45:29
  Speaker 1: then the other big sort of letdown spot is BYU
• 1:45:33
  Speaker 1: after their big win over Notre Dame has to go
• 1:45:35
  Speaker 1: to Orlando. So they go from Elevation, and cool air
• 1:45:39
  Speaker 1: to sea level and humid air, although not as humid
• 1:45:43
  Speaker 1: as it normally is. It is October, so it's starting
• 1:45:45
  Speaker 1: to turn a little bit there in Orlando. We've seen
• 1:45:55
  Speaker 1: these teams, they pull a big upset, and then literally
• 1:45:58
  Speaker 1: the next week lay an egg. We've seen it all
• 1:46:01
  Speaker 1: over the SEC, who's to say this doesn't happen to
• 1:46:04
  Speaker 1: a Big 12 team as well. And in fact, Keep
• 1:46:07
  Speaker 1: an eye on Tennessee having to travel to South Carolina.
• 1:46:09
  Speaker 1: They got their big win over Alabama. They really celebrated
• 1:46:12
  Speaker 1: that big win over Alabama. And now they got to
• 1:46:14
  Speaker 1: go into Columbia, South Carolina. I know what my Vegas
• 1:46:20
  Speaker 1: friends would be doing on this one. That's for sure.
• 1:46:25
  Speaker 1: And then after that, I can't tell you that I've got,
• 1:46:29
  Speaker 1: you know, I may have some interesting financial plays in
• 1:46:34
  Speaker 1: some of these things. And I will be watching at
• 1:46:36
  Speaker 1: Clemson hosting Virginia Tech here. I'm just curious of which
• 1:46:42
  Speaker 1: Clemson team shows up. I think Tech can beat them handily.
• 1:46:48
  Speaker 1: They have the capability. But it's big game James, right?
• 1:46:53
  Speaker 1: So who knows on this front? I just don't know
• 1:46:58
  Speaker 1: if I buy that Clemson can keep up on that front. Uh,
• 1:47:05
  Speaker 1: and all right. I think that's what I got. I
• 1:47:07
  Speaker 1: think that's the best Houston, Utah. It's another rank on rank, uh,
• 1:47:11
  Speaker 1: rank match up there. Um, it's probably a more important
• 1:47:15
  Speaker 1: game for Houston because Utah has got an opportunity to
• 1:47:17
  Speaker 1: play BYU and they can make a college football playoff
• 1:47:20
  Speaker 1: statement by defeating BYU, even if they lose this game.
• 1:47:24
  Speaker 1: But man, Utah is a tough place to play a
• 1:47:26
  Speaker 1: tough place to play. Houston's on the road, but this
• 1:47:29
  Speaker 1: is a pretty important game of the big 12. Um,
• 1:47:32
  Speaker 1: and my own, My own producer's a big Utah Ute. So,
• 1:47:35
  Speaker 1: you know, I give, I'm going to, A, I got
• 1:47:38
  Speaker 1: to give some respect and B, they deserve, they have earned,
• 1:47:43
  Speaker 1: earned this respect. And then I'll be keeping a small
• 1:47:46
  Speaker 1: eye on USC traveling to Wisconsin. This is two time zones,
• 1:47:49
  Speaker 1: not three. Can USC win a ball game when they
• 1:47:53
  Speaker 1: travel multiple time zones? Well, they can win. The question is,
• 1:47:56
  Speaker 1: can they ever cover a spread when they go more
• 1:47:58
  Speaker 1: than two time zones on this front? But Look, USC
• 1:48:02
  Speaker 1: is going to be hosting Ohio State without Julian saying
• 1:48:05
  Speaker 1: in a couple of weeks. So if they play their
• 1:48:08
  Speaker 1: cards right, don't lose any games before then, then suddenly
• 1:48:10
  Speaker 1: USC might be able to play their way back in
• 1:48:14
  Speaker 1: to the college football playoff conversation. So there you have it.
• 1:48:17
  Speaker 1: I'm going to be having literally an air pod. ear
• 1:48:20
  Speaker 1: in one game, my eyes and half of my attention
• 1:48:25
  Speaker 1: live and in person watching Kevin Jennings, I hope, tear
• 1:48:31
  Speaker 1: the Cal secondary apart. And I look forward to seeing,
• 1:48:35
  Speaker 1: most importantly, I look forward to seeing my son. after
• 1:48:38
  Speaker 1: having a great weekend with my daughter last weekend. So
• 1:48:40
  Speaker 1: with that, enjoy the weekend. Appreciate everything that everybody's been
• 1:48:46
  Speaker 1: doing to support all of my efforts here on this podcast.
• 1:48:50
  Speaker 1: Some other places we've really seen the increased interest, increased traffic,
• 1:48:54
  Speaker 1: and it's all thanks to you. So thank you very much.
• 1:48:57
  Speaker 1: And until we upload again.