Latest / Professional Ag Marketing Podcast / Corn trades above $5.00 for the first time since 2023 | Grain Market Talk May 1st, 2026

Transcript

Corn trades above $5.00 for the first time since 2023 | Grain Market Talk May 1st, 2026 · Professional Ag Marketing Podcast

• 0:03
  SPEAKER_00: You're locked in to the Grain Market Talk Podcast.
• 0:07
  SPEAKER_00: Fast updates, market movers, and the grain news you need right now.
• 0:12
  SPEAKER_00: Trading commodity futures and options involve substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.
• 0:22
  SPEAKER_01: All right, today is May 1st.
• 0:24
  SPEAKER_01: I've got Jane with us here today.
• 0:25
  SPEAKER_01: We're going to talk about the grain market.
• 0:27
  SPEAKER_01: We're going to talk about some uh chart work here, go over uh a little bit of outside market money movement, talk about some uh weather updates, uh forecasts, talk about the Iran conflict.
• 0:38
  SPEAKER_01: We're gonna cover all the bases here and some seasonals to finish off today.
• 0:42
  SPEAKER_01: So some charts at the end of this that are pretty interesting, interesting.
• 0:45
  SPEAKER_01: So how's it going today, Jaden?
• 0:46
  SPEAKER_02: It's going good.
• 0:47
  SPEAKER_02: Mike saw dies corn above five bucks today.
• 0:50
  SPEAKER_01: Man, that was uh wow.
• 0:52
  SPEAKER_01: That we have been waiting for it.
• 0:53
  SPEAKER_01: You bumped up against it for so long.
• 0:55
  SPEAKER_01: Everybody and their dog have been talking about it the last few years.
• 0:58
  SPEAKER_01: When's the last time we traded above five bucks, Jaden?
• 1:02
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, and the front month dies, it's been since the end of 2023, so it's been quite a long time there.
• 1:07
  SPEAKER_02: That it has.
• 1:07
  SPEAKER_01: And soybeans, we made new highs this week as well.
• 1:10
  SPEAKER_01: We're not to 12 yet, anyways, but uh the soybean market, anyways.
• 1:14
  SPEAKER_01: 1180 we traded.
• 1:15
  SPEAKER_01: What was our high today?
• 1:17
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, our high today was um 1182.
• 1:20
  SPEAKER_02: So yeah.
• 1:21
  SPEAKER_02: Trade some high levels on both um grain and corn and soybean markets today.
• 1:27
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, so highest in corn since 23, highest in soybean since May of 24.
• 1:31
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, some really good movement.
• 1:33
  SPEAKER_01: Anything specific really stand out to you?
• 1:36
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, is this a combination of time of the year weather premium?
• 1:40
  SPEAKER_01: Probably crude oil moving higher with some volatility there, ceasefire likely ending.
• 1:45
  SPEAKER_01: We'll talk about that in a minute.
• 1:47
  SPEAKER_01: And then uh also looking at the fact that we had wheat running pretty hard recently.
• 1:53
  SPEAKER_01: Wheat traded over seven bucks here on like uh Kansas City, uh hard red winter wheat, so a pretty good chart action there too.
• 2:00
  SPEAKER_01: Was there anything else that stood out to you for why we've rallied this grain market?
• 2:04
  SPEAKER_02: I would say just the wheat kind of started it off earlier in the week, and then we just had continuous money flow into all the grains here to end the week.
• 2:11
  SPEAKER_02: And I think after you know, wheat put on 30 cents one of the one of the early days in the week, and corn and soybean just had some catching up due later in the week.
• 2:20
  SPEAKER_01: Seems like corn's been following wheat and they're big moves.
• 2:24
  SPEAKER_01: Soybeans have been following soybean oil, which has been following crude oil moves, I feel like.
• 2:30
  SPEAKER_01: So soybean oil up to what 75 bucks now.
• 2:34
  SPEAKER_01: I think back in 22 or 23, we got up into the 91 area, I believe.
• 2:38
  SPEAKER_01: So uh it could still have some room to run if it wanted to here, but nonetheless, uh those have been pretty much followers, I think, on this rally lately from outside things, really.
• 2:50
  SPEAKER_01: Uh weather-wise, Monday's planning progress report, I would have argued was a little bearish looking at the Iowa number specifically on corn planted.
• 3:00
  SPEAKER_01: We were at a five-year average, which I thought was impressive versus what we've heard out of most of Iowa with the little planning progress that that's been done locally here, being the fact that guys are finally getting back in the field after last weekend's rains of an inch to two inches kind of area.
• 3:19
  SPEAKER_01: Um, it was a slow dry.
• 3:21
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, it's been cold, kind of kind of gray out there.
• 3:24
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, finally getting in, probably in the last 24 hours again, I think, for uh progress locally.
• 3:30
  SPEAKER_01: Seems like most of our folks locally, you're pretty much half done.
• 3:33
  SPEAKER_01: You're done with one of the two crops, basically.
• 3:35
  SPEAKER_01: I'd I'd argue.
• 3:37
  SPEAKER_01: It went in really good, perfect conditions.
• 3:39
  SPEAKER_01: Now we're getting back out there.
• 3:41
  SPEAKER_01: Um, and we're getting rain.
• 3:42
  SPEAKER_01: So in the Western Corn Belt out by us, we appreciated it.
• 3:45
  SPEAKER_01: We were super dry.
• 3:47
  SPEAKER_01: My guys in Iowa, especially southeast, super wet, uh, not fantastic conditions so far there.
• 3:53
  SPEAKER_01: What are some other ones that stood out to you, Jaden, and the planning progress report and just overall planning conditions right now?
• 4:00
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, I think maybe not so much this week.
• 4:02
  SPEAKER_02: It'll just be interesting to see what how progress stands on Monday.
• 4:06
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, like you said, a lot of the corn belt did receive, you know, three inches in some spot uh for rainfall this past week.
• 4:13
  SPEAKER_02: So I I think not a lot of wheels were turned this week.
• 4:16
  SPEAKER_02: So I think, you know, we did make some good progress last week, but I think we might have fallen a little behind normal um over the last week in some areas.
• 4:24
  SPEAKER_01: I would say so too.
• 4:25
  SPEAKER_01: Uh one of the ones that impressed me too last week was Illinois there.
• 4:28
  SPEAKER_01: I think they had pretty impressive progress last week on corn.
• 4:32
  SPEAKER_01: So something worth mentioning there out east too.
• 4:34
  SPEAKER_01: So the I State's off to a pretty good start besides Iowa.
• 4:38
  SPEAKER_02: And in those in Illinois, Indiana, they were off to a really good start, they're head of pace, but over the last few days they have gotten a lot of rainfall, so maybe they're comparing back to more towards the average now.
• 4:49
  SPEAKER_01: Good thoughts, good thoughts.
• 4:51
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, when I look at the Iran conflict, just to finish that up here.
• 4:57
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, oil, crazy volatility lately.
• 4:59
  SPEAKER_01: You had 110 here just a few days ago again, and then we're back down in the 90s.
• 5:05
  SPEAKER_01: This market is just it's been crazy active here lately.
• 5:08
  SPEAKER_01: What do you got to say about the Iran update and what Trump comments have been or what his stance are, uh Strait of Horror moves and what the situation is there.
• 5:18
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, it seems like they're really struggling to see eye to eye to get a deal done.
• 5:21
  SPEAKER_02: Um, you know, over the weekend here.
• 5:24
  SPEAKER_02: It sounds like just here on Friday, Iran did come out with a new proposal, but Trump sounds like he denied it again.
• 5:30
  SPEAKER_02: So uh the these two parties are really having trouble to get to a deal and it'll be interesting to see if anything materializes over the weekend here.
• 5:38
  SPEAKER_01: Part of the problem's been Trump trying to find the right people to talk to in Iran.
• 5:42
  SPEAKER_01: So that that alone has been a barrier there to get a deal done.
• 5:46
  SPEAKER_01: Nonetheless, for the time being, straight aforemes 100% shut down.
• 5:50
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, I saw right before we started this podcast.
• 5:53
  SPEAKER_01: Uh that headline had came out as he was leaving the White House lawn.
• 5:57
  SPEAKER_01: Um cool forecast going forward.
• 5:59
  SPEAKER_01: Uh we've got like 70 degree day highs and then 30 degree low nights.
• 6:04
  SPEAKER_01: So the next week we are gonna stress some of these crops in areas, especially if you're popping out of the ground on some super early stuff that got planted.
• 6:13
  SPEAKER_01: So that's something to keep an eye on too.
• 6:15
  SPEAKER_01: But on seasonals, I just wanted to mention the time of the year that we're sitting in, Jaden, right now.
• 6:21
  SPEAKER_01: This right here, we've got up, it's gonna be a 5, 10, 15, and 20 year average on the chart.
• 6:28
  SPEAKER_01: Now, what I'm seeing is basically through this stretch, almost your almost every year you have a high in the corn market between that May 7th on average to about June 19th.
• 6:41
  SPEAKER_01: We're approaching this window and we've been rapidly uh going up.
• 6:45
  SPEAKER_01: We're back up over five bucks, or we traded it here today on Deese corn.
• 6:50
  SPEAKER_01: It's worth mentioning this is the time of the year that we get excited.
• 6:54
  SPEAKER_01: This is the time of the year the market puts risk premium in these markets, and we get a little worried, whether it be uh weather premium, whether it be uh dry weather or a slow planning pace starts to come into effect after May 10th, basically on the forecast there.
• 7:10
  SPEAKER_01: So these are all things that start to really impact this corn market at this time of the year, and it's very normal for us to be in this phase, in this environment, I think at this time of the year, Jaden, given the big rally we've recently had in corn and soybeans to see some phenomenal prices back up again to levels that we can finally, you know, uh take some risk off the table at comfortable levels, I think, for a lot of folks that we work with.
• 7:36
  SPEAKER_01: So when it comes to the fact that from a seasonal perspective, it's very normal to experience what we're experiencing right now over the next month or two, I would argue, in these markets.
• 7:46
  SPEAKER_01: And and with that, trying to navigate around things like, you know, the importance of this is why we do what we do, uh, because it it we typically do take that premium out once the American farmer uh finishes out that crop pretty strong, like we know they normally do.
• 8:02
  SPEAKER_01: And with that comes margin calls and some of those things too.
• 8:05
  SPEAKER_01: So if we are gonna rally this market here the next couple weeks, especially with you've got a Wazir port on the 12th of May coming up, you'll have uh progress uh really important that May 10th, uh May 11th date coming up as well.
• 8:18
  SPEAKER_01: Then the 14th, 15th, you've got the US and China trade negotiations coming out.
• 8:23
  SPEAKER_01: You're gonna have a lot coming out that week.
• 8:25
  SPEAKER_01: I'm gonna be very interested to see one, what the market direction decides to do through that weekly timeframe, and then just to how uh how producers, it's always exciting to watch how they manage it with margin calls, positioning, uh, what kind of strategies they they entail to uh unfold.
• 8:43
  SPEAKER_01: So I I'm really looking forward to the next two weeks specifically here for row crop risk managers.
• 8:49
  SPEAKER_02: So yeah, like you said, Mike, we're definitely entering a volatile time of the year and just just to throw in those report and the meeting there too.
• 8:56
  SPEAKER_02: I I think it's important just over the next couple months here.
• 8:59
  SPEAKER_02: If we if we're getting significant rallies, I mean we got to take advantage of it as a row crop producer.
• 9:04
  SPEAKER_01: All right.
• 9:04
  SPEAKER_01: Well, thank you for your time today, everybody.
• 9:07
  SPEAKER_01: Please click on the link in the description below to find our daily market commentary and some other fun things that we've got going on in the markets for info and things like that as well, or go to our website at professional like marketing.com.