Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 47 - 5/20/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 47 - 5/20/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

• 0:19
  Hello and welcome to episode 47 of the All Systems Go Sports
• 0:24
  Betting podcast Powered by Rhythm.
• 0:27
  I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on?
• 0:33
  Everyone Happy Monday? We are coming down the home
• 0:36
  stretch of May 2nd to last week of the month here.
• 0:39
  Guys hope everyone had a great weekend as it continues to heat
• 0:42
  up as we get closer and closer to summer and we got a lot to
• 0:46
  talk about or maybe not so much to talk about on today's
• 0:48
  podcast. It's a little bit smaller than
• 0:50
  usual slate. I do have a four pack of Major
• 0:52
  League Baseball plays, so it's really going to be all MLB,
• 0:54
  which I'm fine with because MLB has been as Pedro Martinez or
• 0:59
  was it Mandy Ramirez said. Baseball been very, very good to
• 1:01
  me. Well, it's been decent for us
• 1:02
  all year and I had a pretty good weekend overall.
• 1:05
  In general. I do have a four pack of MLB
• 1:07
  sweats. I got nothing in the NBA.
• 1:09
  There's no action here for tonight.
• 1:11
  Celtics and the Pacers start tomorrow, and then we have the
• 1:14
  Dallas Mavericks and the T Wolves starting up here on
• 1:16
  Wednesday. There's only one hockey game.
• 1:19
  It was a big line move here toward Edmonton.
• 1:21
  Edmonton opened -140. They're all the way up to -160.
• 1:24
  Did see some under money come in.
• 1:26
  That will be a game seven under, but we missed the the Under 6
• 1:31
  because those sixes are now down to 5 1/2 so didn't see a ton
• 1:34
  either way. I know there is some WNBA which
• 1:37
  we will dabble in here a little bit because rhythm has some
• 1:39
  great projections, but overall I figured, hey, let's not force
• 1:42
  anything, let's stick to what's making us some money.
• 1:44
  So it's going to be a big baseball day on today's podcast,
• 1:47
  Episode 47. So that being said, how's
• 1:50
  everyone's weekend? Hope you had a good weekend,
• 1:51
  guys. Pretty good weekend for betting.
• 1:53
  Look back toward Friday's pod episode 46.
• 1:56
  We had a winning day three and 2 + 0.56 units.
• 2:00
  Had a couple wins with the Orioles and the Astros as well
• 2:02
  as a big hit in the NBA that Nicks over 215 1/2.
• 2:07
  Remember we bought low or but you know, buy a buy.
• 2:09
  Low opportunity there. I think it was.
• 2:11
  What was it? As high as 217 1/2 got down to
• 2:13
  215 1/2. But if you aren't a believer in
• 2:16
  rhythm yet, you should be. Because rhythm.
• 2:18
  I mentioned on Friday's Pod they had a projection of 219.9 and we
• 2:24
  are going to buy low and go over 215 now.
• 2:25
  Well guess what? It landed 219.
• 2:28
  So not only did rhythm help us win a bet, but they were spot
• 2:30
  on. So of course we haven't done it
• 2:32
  yet. I want you to go take advantage
• 2:34
  of rhythm by signing up for a free seven day trial.
• 2:37
  You can sign up by just clicking the link which is listed in the
• 2:40
  bio or the description of this podcast and every pod that we
• 2:43
  do. Also, you can find it on my
• 2:45
  Twitter page at Josh under Score Insights, the custom link that's
• 2:48
  just pinned at the top of my page.
• 2:49
  It's also on the All Systems Go Twitter page as well, so take
• 2:52
  advantage of rhythm. They got great golf projections
• 2:55
  right now. They also have some great WNBA.
• 2:58
  And of course when we get to it after NBA season ends, get ready
• 3:01
  for football. They do a great job in football
• 3:03
  as well. But the Knicks?
• 3:04
  Over the Orioles, the Astros, The losers were the Rangers and
• 3:06
  the D backs. But a three and 2 + 0.56.
• 3:09
  Friday, a good Saturday, I wrote the Sharp Report and it was one
• 3:13
  and one. One game got rained out, but
• 3:14
  there was a winner. With the Rays, they're a little
• 3:16
  bit of plus money, plus 1/15. Loser was the Orioles.
• 3:19
  But the good thing about Saturday as well was Moggo
• 3:22
  Madoff, baby who loves sweating UFC on the weekends.
• 3:25
  I do raise your hand. I do Moggo Madoff.
• 3:28
  We talked about on Friday's pod with our rudimentary I'm not
• 3:31
  going to say we're reinventing the wheel, but hey, younger,
• 3:33
  taller, longer reach, line move, low bets, higher dollars bet,
• 3:37
  split, Moggo Madoff had a good line move.
• 3:39
  He was much taller. He had a much longer reach, more
• 3:42
  significant strikes per minute. I also had a better defense as
• 3:45
  well and Mago Madoff got it done with the the judges.
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  So big winner there with Mago Madoff.
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  And then what I really like told yesterday was the Sharp report.
• 3:53
  Of course, always remember there are no pods on the weekend, but
• 3:56
  when we get to football, I will be doing.
• 3:58
  I actually have a lot of a lot of thoughts and a lot of lot of
• 4:00
  things we're thinking about doing.
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  If it's going to be a big football season, I'll tell you.
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  I'll tell you more when we get there.
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  I'm in the preliminary stages of having some big plans in terms
• 4:08
  of live pods and live streams and all that kind of stuff.
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  But for now, no pods on the weekend.
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  But if you like to sweat MLB, I grind out an MLB Sharp Report
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  all season long. Opening day all the way to the
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  last out of the World Series. Nice three and O yesterday if
• 4:21
  you followed those Sharp Report plays from beeson.com with the
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  Red Sox, the Blue Jays and the Giants.
• 4:27
  The only bad parts of the weekend one were my Boston
• 4:29
  Bruins. I didn't bet on them but they
• 4:31
  had a lead. They coughed it up.
• 4:32
  My hockey season is over sadly. So I thought that you know just
• 4:35
  when they what is it, just want to think I'm out, they pull me
• 4:37
  back in and then they just you know let leave me to die there.
• 4:40
  So you know wash rinse, repeat Bruins, getting my hopes up and
• 4:43
  letting me down. And then the other frustrating
• 4:45
  one was the Dallas. Not Dallas Mavericks, but the
• 4:48
  Denver Nuggets because they had like a 20 point lead, you know
• 4:51
  tip your cap to Anthony Edwards and the T Wolves.
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  They move on in advance but I was holding that futures ticket
• 4:56
  or that series price bet on the Dallas.
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  I keep saying the Dallas Mavs on the Denver Nuggets and obviously
• 5:02
  they lose so I ripped that one up or put in the recycling bin.
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  But either way guys, good weekend but on a little bit of
• 5:07
  hot streak here since Friday. Let's see if we can get it going
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  and keep it continuing here on a big Monday the 20th of May.
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  Now with that being said, let's waste no more time.
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  Let's get right into the plays for today. 4 pack of MLB.
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  It's all baseball so if you like sweating baseball, today's your
• 5:23
  day first. But on the board for me.
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  Let's go to a 6:10 PM Eastern Time.
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  First pitch between the New York Mets and the Cleveland
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  Guardians. I'm going with it.
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  Used to be the Tribe. The Guardians, baby.
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  I got the Guardians around -130. Let's set the stage here.
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  I'll give you my angle for why you should maybe consider
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  Cleveland tonight, #1. The Mets coming in 21 and 25.
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  They have lost or did lose two or three over the weekend to the
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  Marlins. They avoided the sweep, though
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  they did win on Sunday, 7:00 to 3:00 as a -, 140 Rd. favorite.
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  You know, the Guardians continue to be a really good team this
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  year. One of the best records in
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  baseball, 30 and 17. They just swept the Twins.
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  They won Sunday series finale 5 to 2 as a -, 115 home favorite
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  in tonight's interleague series opener.
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  Pitching match up. The Mets are going with Ready
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  Tyler Megill who's O and one with a 2.25 ERA.
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  The Guardians are going with fellow Ready Ben Lively who's
• 6:13
  two and two with a three-point O 6 ERA.
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  So what I like about the Guardians here?
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  Well, good steam in their favor. Cleveland Guardians opened as
• 6:21
  low as a -, 120 home favorite. We've now seen the Guardians
• 6:23
  creep up to -130. I see a couple shops that maybe
• 6:26
  even inching toward -135 so pretty consistent one way
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  movement. As soon as this line was
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  available to bet the odds makers posted the number boom got
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  hammered with a lot of guardians money triggering that movement
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  in favor of Cleveland. Now Cleveland is getting 77% of
• 6:41
  money line bets and 82% of money line dollars.
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  So that is a little bit of a low bets, higher dollars bet split
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  whenever, whatever. I'm looking at the bet splits
• 6:48
  from beeson.com, which come directly from DraftKings, which
• 6:51
  is real action coming in across the market across the country.
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  Always like at least a little bit more money than bets.
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  It's just a small indicator of hey, the bigger sharper wagers
• 7:00
  being in your favor. Now if you're getting 60% bets
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  but only 40% money, that's a bad thing.
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  As long as you get a little bit more money than bets, it's just
• 7:07
  a little box you can check off saying hey, the most likely
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  those wagers are bigger, sharper wagers from respected betters.
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  But don't just blindly go off bet percentages.
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  You got to add in the line movement.
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  The line has to be moving with the percentages, so low bets,
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  higher dollars, Cleveland 77% bets, 82% money, and the lines
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  moving in their favor. That's why you got to
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  incorporate all three the bets, the dollars in the line move.
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  Also, if you look at a couple system matches here, number one
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  interleague favorite, lack of familiarity benefiting the
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  better team, but home interleague favorites off a win
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  like the Guardians. Here they are 35 and 2163% with
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  a 6% ROI this season. The Guardians also have a much
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  better bullpen. They have an ERA of 2.54 versus
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  3.27. Cleveland, meanwhile, is one of
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  the best home teams in baseball. They're actually the second best
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  home team behind the Yankees. We'll get to them here in a
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  second, but they are 15 and six at home, 71%.
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  And if you dig a little deeper into these, these starting
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  pitchers, Lively has a 1.46 ERA at home this year on the road,
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  four point O 5. Why do we like that 'cause?
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  He's at home here tonight, where he's pitched well.
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  Miguel, by the way, is only making a second start of the
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  year and he's coming off the injured list.
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  So come off the injury list, you know, is he on a pitch count?
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  You know, your first start after being out for a while, it's
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  usually a spot you want to bet against.
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  Also, you look at the run differential for these teams.
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  Just a quick snapshot of how good you are, you know, scoring
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  runs versus giving them up. Plus 59 for the Guardians, -13
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  for the Mets. And if you look at Cleveland as
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  well, in terms of when they are favored, they're 19 and eight
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  when they're when they're laying chalk, that's 70%.
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  That's the second best chalk team in Major League Baseball.
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  So if you give me Cleveland with a good line move, low bets, high
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  dollars, bet, split. Interleague favorite system
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  match at a very modest price, only -130.
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  I got to take that every time. Guys.
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  Give me the Cleveland Guardians. I got the Guardians at -130.
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  Keep on cruising. 6:40 PM Eastern Time match up here in
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  the National League between the Milwaukee Brewers, the Brew Crew
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  and the Miami Marlins. A little background here and
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  then I'll tell you where I'm going.
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  Well, hint, hint, I'm going to make some beer tonight.
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  Let's brew some beer. I'm going to Milwaukee around
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  -135, but anyway, little background.
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  Brewers 27 and 19. They did, however, just dropped
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  two or three against the Astros. They lost on Sunday 9:00 to 4:00
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  as a + 120 row dog. Flip side, the Marlins, they're
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  still really bad. They're 15 and 33, but they're
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  playing a little bit better as of late.
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  They didn't just take two of three against the Mets, I just
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  mentioned them, but they did lose that finale on Sunday, 7:00
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  to 3:00 as a + 125 home dog. But for tonight's series opener,
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  The Brew Crew, they're going with Rady Joe Ross, who's two
• 9:43
  and four with a 4.61 ERA. Meanwhile, the Marlins are going
• 9:46
  with lefty Ryan Weathers, who's two and four with a 3.81 ERA.
• 9:50
  So what have we seen across the market here?
• 9:52
  Well, good sharp steam on the beer makers.
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  The Brewers actually open this game as low as a -, 125 Rd.
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  favorite. Now they're up to -135.
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  I see some shops even closer to -140.
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  So we talked a second ago about how, you know, Cleveland had all
• 10:07
  that movement in their favor with no buyback.
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  Well, same thing here. All movement toward Milwaukee
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  with no buyback. The Brew Crew are getting 83% of
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  bets, but 94% of the money. Some other low bets, higher
• 10:18
  dollars, bet split. Both pro and Joe action with
• 10:20
  that good steam move in their favor.
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  Now in particular, I'm going to bank on the Brewers offense.
• 10:25
  They have a big edge at the plate.
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  They're hitting 258 this year with 58 homers, 235 runs scored.
• 10:31
  Marlins are hitting 231 with 41 homers and only 180, four runs
• 10:35
  scored. So hopefully the sticks show up
• 10:37
  here for Milwaukee System matches.
• 10:40
  I've been playing around trying to adjust some systems, and I
• 10:42
  think that's the thing with baseball.
• 10:43
  Like the deeper you get into the season, kind of really lean on
• 10:47
  your system matches and you can even kind of create more by just
• 10:49
  maybe testing something in your database.
• 10:52
  But here's one that came up with, I don't know, last week or
• 10:54
  the week before. But if you look at a team with a
• 10:56
  winning record coming off a loss, like the Brewers here,
• 11:00
  they're 91 and 4965% with a 9% ROI.
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  And the kind of cool thing there was, I had a a system play of
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  just a favorite off a loss. They're 180 and one 2160% with a
• 11:11
  2% ROI. But if you just tweak that and
• 11:14
  just look at only favorites off loss who have a winning record
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  like Milwaukee gets even better, the ROI creeps up like 7%.
• 11:20
  That would match here with Milwaukee.
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  Rd. favorites in general are 59% with a 5% ROI.
• 11:26
  Rd. favorites off a loss are 65% with a 12% ROI.
• 11:30
  Now here's another system match that I was kind of playing
• 11:32
  around with if you are a good favorite off a loss versus bad
• 11:35
  team. So what do I mean by that?
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  You're favored. You're coming off a loss.
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  You're good. You have an above 500 record and
• 11:41
  you're playing a bad team with a sub 500 record.
• 11:43
  That system is 57 and 2768% with a 22% ROI that also match with
• 11:50
  Milwaukee. In addition, we have seen this
• 11:52
  total drop 8 1/2 down to 8 at some shops and when you see the
• 11:56
  total fall at least 1/2 run take the favorite.
• 11:59
  Very simple, but kind of that correlative betting, fewer
• 12:01
  amount of expected run scored, more likely to come from the
• 12:03
  better team. That total drops take the
• 12:05
  favorite system is 138 and 8562% with a 5% ROI.
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  Brewers Classic non division favorite lack of familiarity
• 12:14
  benefiting the better team. Milwaukee's 15 and 10 on the
• 12:17
  road. Miami is just 8 and 18 at home
• 12:19
  and digging into the pitchers. Joe Ross, he's terrible at home
• 12:22
  6.87, but on the road 2.78 ERA. He's on the road tonight.
• 12:27
  Meanwhile, weather's seven point O 7 ERA at home versus 2.25 on
• 12:32
  the road, so he's been actually better on the road than at home.
• 12:35
  So Ross is better on the road and Weathers is worse at home.
• 12:38
  Brothers is home tonight. Ross is on the road.
• 12:40
  So that kind of lines up pretty well for us.
• 12:42
  Also run differential Marlins -82, Brewers are plus 38.
• 12:47
  So kind of another good team. Awful loss at a decent price
• 12:50
  here. Not too expensive.
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  Shop around. I got Milwaukee at -135, Keep on
• 12:56
  cruising. This was a play that I added a
• 12:58
  little bit later in the afternoon because it was kind of
• 13:00
  sitting around to pick them all day and then boom, it got steam
• 13:02
  pretty hard. Boston Red Sox and the Tampa Bay
• 13:05
  Rays. Now going into this match up we
• 13:08
  have the Red Sox sitting at 23 and 24.
• 13:11
  The Red Sox did just lose, actually had a pretty bad losing
• 13:14
  streak. They had lost think four or five
• 13:15
  in a row and then dropped two or three at Saint Louis, but did
• 13:18
  come back yesterday and win, which is nice for the sharp
• 13:21
  report. Red Sox had late steam.
• 13:23
  They won 11 to 3 yesterday. Meanwhile, you look at Tampa
• 13:26
  Bay. Tampa Bay's playing pretty well.
• 13:28
  They have won four, their last five they took two or three
• 13:30
  against the Blue Jays, lost five to two yesterday.
• 13:32
  Again, I'm happy about that because I took the Blue Jays.
• 13:35
  But going to the match up here for tonight, we have the Red Sox
• 13:39
  going with Rady Tanner Houck who's three and five with a 2.17
• 13:43
  ERA. He'll be opposed by Taj Bradley
• 13:45
  who's one and one with a 2.45 ERA.
• 13:48
  So what do you see across the market here?
• 13:50
  Well this line is shooting up toward Tampa Bay.
• 13:53
  Tampa Bay open this game as I mentioned around a pick em
• 13:55
  basically both sides around -110.
• 13:58
  They pretty much sat there all day and then I would say what
• 14:00
  around 132 o'clock boom. Got a lot of big steam here.
• 14:04
  Coming in hot on the Tampa Bay Rays.
• 14:06
  The Rays are now up to -120. So good steam here hitting Tampa
• 14:10
  Bay. And I also like that line move
• 14:12
  because if you look at the bet splits, only 45% of bets are on
• 14:15
  Tampa Bay. The public's actually leaning
• 14:16
  Red Sox yet the line is shooting up toward Tampa.
• 14:19
  So that is a good sharp reverse line move.
• 14:22
  Late Steam game day steam on Tampa Bay.
• 14:24
  They match quite a few systems here.
• 14:26
  One will be the classic favorite Awful loss. 180 and 1/21/60
• 14:30
  percent, 2% ROI winning team that's favored off a loss. 65%.
• 14:35
  Nine percent ROI favored off a loss versus an opponent off a
• 14:38
  win. That's another system that I
• 14:40
  came up with the other day. Just kind of the classic buy low
• 14:42
  favorite. You're expected to win, you're
• 14:45
  off a loss, you're hungrier. The other team just won.
• 14:47
  Maybe they're due for a, you know kind of regression that's
• 14:50
  150 and 9362% with a 6% ROI. Good favorite off a loss versus
• 14:55
  bad team sub. 568 percent, 22% ROI.
• 14:59
  Got a lot of matches here on Tampa Bay once.
• 15:01
  Once that Tampa steam came in and move them up to -120, they
• 15:05
  just lit up my system matches and then also Tampa Bay against
• 15:08
  the Red Sox. I don't know what it is but
• 15:10
  Tampa's had Red Sox number here for quite a few years really
• 15:13
  since the Pandemic. They're three and one against
• 15:15
  Boston this year. Since the start of last year
• 15:17
  they're 14 and 382% you would have a favorite low total.
• 15:22
  Did see this total drop a lot of eighths down to 7 1/2 some 7 1/2
• 15:26
  might be getting down to seven and you also have kind of a
• 15:30
  pretty good pretty good price here on a home team that has
• 15:32
  owned their opponents. So I'm going Tampa Bay here
• 15:35
  again this was kind of a no bet for me.
• 15:37
  It it's kind of funny the way I you you kind of see the the
• 15:40
  market operate because like overnight things get hammered
• 15:43
  and then some smart money doesn't come in till late.
• 15:45
  But whether it's early late obviously early there can be
• 15:48
  some buyback it can go the other way or it can stay the same.
• 15:50
  In this case it was nothing till later in the day and then boom
• 15:53
  that was the indicator to me that smart money hit Tampa Bay.
• 15:56
  So I'm going Tampa. Shop around.
• 15:58
  I got the raise at -120. Now, last bet here to finish up
• 16:02
  the night for Major League Baseball, Seattle and the New
• 16:05
  York Yankees. Going to this match up we have
• 16:07
  the Mariners 25 and 22. Now the Mariners just lost two
• 16:11
  of three against the Orioles. They lost the series finale
• 16:15
  yesterday, six to three as a + 125 row dog.
• 16:18
  Meanwhile, the Yankees. The Yankees, They keep winning.
• 16:20
  They're 33 and 15. They've won seven straight.
• 16:23
  They just swept the White Sox, winning yesterday's series
• 16:26
  finale 7 to 2 as a big, big, big minus 3320 home favorite Inside
• 16:31
  series opener. The Mariners are going with
• 16:33
  Ready Logan Gilbert. He's three and two with a
• 16:35
  three-point O 7 ERA. Yankees are going with Ready
• 16:37
  Marcus Stroman 3 and two 3.33 ERA.
• 16:40
  What have we seen across the market?
• 16:42
  Well, just like all the rest of these games.
• 16:44
  Good. About $0.10 steam in favor of
• 16:46
  the Yankees. The Yankees open this game
• 16:48
  around -120 -, 125. Now the Yankees are up to -130
• 16:53
  -, 135 S Consistent movement here in favor of New York.
• 16:57
  Now the Yankees are getting 88% of bets and dollars on the money
• 17:00
  line, so lopsided support, but again, aligning with the with
• 17:04
  that heavy bet split with the line move tells us that smart
• 17:07
  money is also on. The Yankees is not just the
• 17:09
  public play, but really going to bank on a few things here.
• 17:12
  The Yankees. Yankees have the better bats.
• 17:14
  They're hitting 25668 homers, 233 runs scored.
• 17:18
  Mariners hitting 22851 homers, and only 177 runs scored.
• 17:23
  So better bats for the Bronx Bombers, especially at home, and
• 17:26
  then a lot of system matches here on New York.
• 17:28
  My favorite one would be favorites with Steam of $0.10 or
• 17:31
  more, playing a team who missed the playoffs the previous year.
• 17:34
  So you're favored, you're expected to win the game, you
• 17:36
  got $0.10 of Steam or more markets hitting you.
• 17:39
  Smart money's in your favor and you're playing a team who didn't
• 17:40
  make the playoffs last year, so they're probably not that good
• 17:43
  now. Seattle's not terrible,
• 17:44
  obviously. They just barely missed the
• 17:46
  postseason, but that's just the match is now 77 and 4265% with a
• 17:51
  5% ROI this year. Yankees also have correlative
• 17:54
  betting favorite low Total told them this one is 8.
• 17:57
  Some shops are juiced up under. I did see a couple 7 and a halfs
• 18:00
  out there at one point. Let me see if it rose up or came
• 18:03
  down because there's some eights that might have been pretty much
• 18:07
  8, although one book is at 7 1/2.
• 18:09
  But anyway, favorite low total. Few amount of expected runs
• 18:12
  scored. More likely to come from, quote
• 18:14
  UN quote, that better team Yankees 16 and 673% at home this
• 18:19
  year. That's the best home record in
• 18:20
  baseball mentioned earlier, but the Guardians are #2.
• 18:23
  Mariners are only 10 and 12 on the road now.
• 18:26
  Marcus Stroman. Let's dig into the pitchers
• 18:27
  here. Stroman has a 2.65 ERA in three
• 18:31
  starts in May. He's only given up five runs in
• 18:33
  17 innings pitched in three starts against the Tigers,
• 18:36
  Astros and Twins. So he's really been throwing the
• 18:38
  ball really well recently. Meanwhile, Logan Gilbert has a
• 18:41
  5.3 OERA and three May starts. He's given up eleven runs in
• 18:45
  18.2 innings pitched and three starts against the Astros, Twins
• 18:48
  and Royals. And looking at and in particular
• 18:52
  as a as a favorite. We're talking about the
• 18:53
  Guardians earlier being a really good chalk favorite.
• 18:56
  Yankees are 25 and 10 when they're favored, 71%.
• 18:59
  That's the best chalk record in Major League Baseball.
• 19:02
  So good movement toward the Yankees, you know, -120 -, 125
• 19:06
  up to now, you know around -130 -, 135.
• 19:09
  Some good system matches, better bats, great chalk team, great
• 19:12
  home team. I'm going to take a shot here on
• 19:14
  the Bronx Bombers at a decent price.
• 19:16
  At home. I got the Yankees at -130.
• 19:21
  Now that about does it for episode 47 of the all systems Go
• 19:24
  pod a little bit shorter than usual just because hey, there's
• 19:27
  no NBA. There's only one NHL game I
• 19:29
  didn't want to force. NHL didn't.
• 19:32
  Did have two WMA games. Again, didn't want to force that
• 19:34
  either. I think what's important is, and
• 19:36
  I I struggle with this sometimes still.
• 19:38
  But I've gotten better as I've you know been in the arena for
• 19:41
  so long. But you want a lot of action.
• 19:43
  You want a big board tonight. You want to look forward to 567
• 19:45
  bets. But hey, as you learn you get
• 19:47
  older, you realize it's actually better to you know bet less, you
• 19:51
  know feel like you're betting on games with that you have more of
• 19:53
  an edge on. So could I push out an NHL play
• 19:55
  tonight? Yeah.
• 19:56
  I've I've I've kind of liens based on the data.
• 19:58
  I had a lien on a WNBA game. But I don't want to have a good
• 20:01
  MLB night. And then my liens go, oh and two
• 20:03
  and then I have a losing night. I want to stick with what's
• 20:05
  making us money which is baseball.
• 20:07
  SO4 bets tonight. Can we get three of them?
• 20:09
  That is the goal. But anyway, 47 the 47th episode
• 20:13
  of the All Systems Gopod now in the books.
• 20:15
  Reminder guys, if you enjoy this pod, hopefully you have learned
• 20:19
  a thing or two. Maybe you've kind of learned to
• 20:20
  view betting a little bit differently, not through a
• 20:22
  opinion based lens or favoritism or your bias, but you're looking
• 20:26
  at data. You're looking at line movement.
• 20:28
  You're looking at what a line opens, at how it moves, why it
• 20:31
  moves, how much it moves. You're looking at bet splits,
• 20:33
  percentage of bets in dollars. You're looking at betting
• 20:35
  systems. You're flat betting, You're not
• 20:37
  parlaying, You're betting to risk versus when.
• 20:39
  You never even knew what the heck that was until we explained
• 20:42
  it on the pod anyway. If if a pod has helped you at
• 20:44
  all to become a sharper sports, better if you enjoy listening to
• 20:48
  the breakdowns each day again, maybe a tail every play, maybe a
• 20:51
  fadem, maybe a pick up one or two that maybe you didn't think
• 20:54
  about and you play. First off, no matter what you
• 20:57
  do, that's up to you. But thank you, Thank you for
• 20:59
  taking the time out of your day to listen, to grind, to support
• 21:02
  the pod. That really means a lot to me.
• 21:04
  I'm going to ask one thing of you though, Can you help me to
• 21:06
  grow this podcast organically? And what I mean by that, I mean
• 21:10
  number one, can you recommend it to a friend or a family member?
• 21:14
  But most importantly, can you give this pod a five star
• 21:17
  review? It really, really helps us to
• 21:18
  grow up the charts to to rise and grow organically to get more
• 21:22
  St. cred in the in the rankings here.
• 21:24
  But whether you're on Spotify or iTunes, Apple five stars would
• 21:28
  really, really make my day. So if you haven't done it yet,
• 21:30
  please give this pod a five star review.
• 21:33
  Secondly, if you enjoy the POD and you want to learn more about
• 21:36
  data-driven sports betting, I try to hit on as many aspects of
• 21:39
  being a data-driven sports betting each day.
• 21:41
  But guess what? There's a lot that goes into it.
• 21:42
  So if you want to learn more than guess what, I wrote a book,
• 21:46
  wrote a book called The Everything Guide to Sports
• 21:48
  Betting. So if you want to learn more, if
• 21:49
  you want to support the POD, you want to let me know You
• 21:51
  appreciate hard work that I put in grinding in the arena each
• 21:54
  day. Then go buy my book, pick up a
• 21:56
  copy for you or for a friend, just go to Amazon.com and type
• 21:59
  in the Everything Guide to Sports Betting.
• 22:01
  It's got everything I've learned in the industry.
• 22:03
  How lines are set, how and why they move, how to read line
• 22:06
  movement, how to locate sharp action, how to place a bet in
• 22:08
  person or online, how to shop for the best line, how to set up
• 22:11
  a bankroll management plan, chapters on all the major
• 22:13
  sports. It's all included in the
• 22:15
  Everything Guide to Sports betting.
• 22:17
  So if you pick one up, guess what, I'm going to sign it for
• 22:19
  you and buy you a beer or ginger ale or cranberry juice.
• 22:22
  When I see at the book, of course guys, that about does it.
• 22:25
  For today's pod reminder. Whether I see you at the Borgata
• 22:30
  in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New
• 22:32
  Hampshire Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in Connecticut at the
• 22:35
  encore in Boston or Plainers Park Casino, or MGM Springfield.
• 22:38
  Out in my neck of the woods in Boston, MA.
• 22:41
  Or out in the desert where the true grinders get down.
• 22:43
  Or Billy Walter sends his number runners with lowest choose
• 22:46
  possible found the South Point or sweating sharp contrarian
• 22:48
  plays jumping in the stadium swim pool at Circa.
• 22:51
  When you're able to to catch a big bet, wherever it may be,
• 22:54
  you're going to walk up to me and show me a lot of winning
• 22:56
  tickets since Friday, guys. Hopefully it's the start of a
• 22:58
  good hot stretch here. The Knicks over 215 F Remember
• 23:02
  Rhythm predicted 219 F and landed 219 baby Orioles Astros
• 23:06
  from Friday. How about our guy Mago Madoff on
• 23:09
  Saturday? How about the Rays?
• 23:10
  Little plus money on Saturday? How about the Red Sox, Blue Jays
• 23:13
  and Giants from yesterday? Guess what?
• 23:15
  First one's on me. Next one's on you.
• 23:17
  We're going to post about the book Sweatshark Contrarian Plays
• 23:19
  all Night Long. Lastly, I always I always want
• 23:23
  to give a shout out to Juice Reel.
• 23:25
  Juice Reel is a fantastic sports betting app.
• 23:28
  If you are looking to get one more app that really is going to
• 23:31
  help you to really give you some insight into not only how you
• 23:34
  bet but as well as some good recommended bets and some good
• 23:38
  analytics, then download the Juice Reel app.
• 23:40
  You can just click the link within the the bio description
• 23:43
  of the pod. You can You can also check it
• 23:45
  out from my Twitter page at Josh under score Insights.
• 23:47
  But Juice Reel is great. One thing I like about Juice
• 23:50
  Reel is you can connect and sync your sports books to Juice Reel
• 23:53
  so that when you go bet at DraftKings or FanDuel or bet MGM
• 23:57
  or Caesars or Fanatics or ESPN Bet, whatever you bet with, you
• 24:00
  link it up. You place a bet in your app.
• 24:02
  It automatically uploads the Juice reel.
• 24:04
  It tracks your bet. It gives you results and
• 24:07
  performance insight into what you're good at, what you what
• 24:10
  you need to work on more. There's leaderboards.
• 24:12
  If you get really good, you can even sell your own plays.
• 24:14
  Like you can say, hey, you want my picks.
• 24:17
  You can get a week of them for 10 bucks and maybe people buy it
• 24:19
  and maybe you can make make some money so you can kind of bet on
• 24:22
  yourself. And then of course they have the
• 24:23
  Robo Jackson recommended best bets.
• 24:25
  They have the sharp mush bets looking at the games where you
• 24:27
  have a ton of smart money on one side and all the average Joe's
• 24:31
  on the other, but is a fantastic app.
• 24:33
  Great arbitrage opportunities as well.
• 24:35
  So if you haven't done it yet, sign up for that juice reel 7
• 24:38
  day free trial from the custom link on my Twitter page at Josh
• 24:41
  under score Insights and in the ASG podcast description.
• 24:45
  But that about does it everyone. I got a big softball game here
• 24:49
  tonight, so I'll be getting down.
• 24:51
  Going down to where's our game tonight?
• 24:54
  It is in Cambridge, I believe, under the lights, so looking
• 24:57
  forward to that. But I wish you guys the best of
• 24:59
  luck. I will see you back tomorrow on
• 25:01
  episode 48 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting podcast.
• 25:05
  And remember, stay sharp, stay contrarian, bet against the
• 25:08
  public, place yourself on the side of the house.
• 25:10
  Always be with the smart money, never against it.
• 25:12
  Will smart money win every time? Of course not.
• 25:14
  But remember, we're always playing that long game and if we
• 25:17
  can consistently bet with our head and not our heart, find
• 25:20
  games that fit our model against the public, with the house, with
• 25:23
  the pros, flat bet, avoid parlays and get some CLV.
• 25:26
  If we can do that, we're going to be successful sports bettors.
• 25:28
  So hope you had a great weekend. Let's start our new week here.
• 25:31
  Off on the on the right foot. I wish you the best of luck.
• 25:34
  I'll see you tomorrow for episode 48 of the All Systems Go
• 25:37
  Sports Betting Podcast powered by rhythm.
• 25:40
  Good luck everybody.