Latest / Toadstool Sports / Tuesday BEST BETS | Fade Every One of My Plays | MLB | 9/8/26

Transcript

Tuesday BEST BETS | Fade Every One of My Plays | MLB | 9/8/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:16
  Speaker 1: You got a slip in your palm and a hole
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: in your chest. Black coffee on the felt, man, you
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: look like a mess. Three-team parlay turned to dust in
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: your head. Now you stare at the chips like they
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: made you this mad. But don't you go quiet, don't
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: you fade from the floor. Your name still means something
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: to somebody for sure. Put the glass down, baby.
• 0:44
  Speaker 2: Look at me now Hold on, hold on Not tonight,
• 0:55
  Speaker 2: not now Hold on, hold on Let me pull you
• 1:05
  Speaker 2: out That fella fights hard But it don't get the
• 1:12
  Speaker 2: crown Hold on, hold on, stay with me now Hold on,
• 1:19
  Speaker 2: hold on, stay with me.
• 1:21
  Speaker 3: Now Anaheim and the Red Sox was looking really good early.
• 1:42
  Speaker 3: The Red Sox scored four runs in the second inning.
• 1:45
  Speaker 3: It was 5-0, I think, in the third inning. Bayo
• 1:49
  Speaker 3: did better than I thought he would, but there were
• 1:52
  Speaker 3: just a lot of opportunities for both teams that didn't
• 1:56
  Speaker 3: result in runs, and the game wound up not going
• 1:59
  Speaker 3: under by that much. The final was 5-2, Red Sox,
• 2:02
  Speaker 3: so he missed the push on my number by one run. And, like, one...
• 2:08
  Speaker 3: play could have just completely made the difference. There were
• 2:11
  Speaker 3: guys being stranded on base everywhere. There was one play
• 2:14
  Speaker 3: later in the game where the Red Sox had, I think,
• 2:16
  Speaker 3: second and third with two outs, though, but there was
• 2:19
  Speaker 3: a liner to center field, and the center fielder misplayed it,
• 2:23
  Speaker 3: and he fell to the ground, and he still somehow
• 2:26
  Speaker 3: made the catch. If he missed that catch, the game
• 2:29
  Speaker 3: goes over, and it was like a miraculous catch, so Yeah,
• 2:34
  Speaker 3: if that miracle doesn't happen, then we get two more
• 2:37
  Speaker 3: runs out of that, at least, and the game goes over.
• 2:41
  Speaker 3: There were just multiple other things that happened in the
• 2:43
  Speaker 3: game where guys were just being stranded on base. I'm pissed, man.
• 2:46
  Speaker 3: I'm really pissed. And, of course, Joe Ryan loses again
• 2:50
  Speaker 3: for me with Minnesota. Never should have added that play.
• 2:54
  Speaker 3: They had a 1-0 lead early, and then Ryan decides
• 2:56
  Speaker 3: to blow it, even though At the point where they
• 3:00
  Speaker 3: fell down 3-1, they were still out hitting Detroit at
• 3:04
  Speaker 3: that point. Melton wasn't that good in the game. Meltdown.
• 3:08
  Speaker 3: He was not very good in the game. Like I said,
• 3:11
  Speaker 3: when it was 3-1 Detroit, Minnesota was still winning the
• 3:14
  Speaker 3: hit battle in the game. Joe Ryan, he hit a
• 3:18
  Speaker 3: guy with a pitch with the bases loaded. What are
• 3:21
  Speaker 3: we doing here? What are we doing? It's completely ridiculous.
• 3:25
  Speaker 3: They were only down 3-2 at the end of 5-1.
• 3:28
  Speaker 3: So it's not like that one was totally done or
• 3:32
  Speaker 3: out of the realm of possibility. And then we also
• 3:35
  Speaker 3: lost with the Reds because apparently the Reds are just,
• 3:40
  Speaker 3: even though they have very few games left, they're workload
• 3:45
  Speaker 3: managing their starters. I mean, okay, I get you don't
• 3:48
  Speaker 3: want to get this guy hurt and whatever, but he's
• 3:50
  Speaker 3: only going to pitch a couple more times this season.
• 3:53
  Speaker 3: So what are you doing? So Burns was really good
• 3:55
  Speaker 3: in the game, but they took him out after three innings.
• 3:58
  Speaker 3: They had a 1-0 lead at that point. It was
• 3:59
  Speaker 3: looking pretty good. The Dodgers went with Emmitt Sheehan, by
• 4:03
  Speaker 3: the way, which I was fine with that, like whatever.
• 4:06
  Speaker 3: I mean, I don't know what his numbers are against
• 4:07
  Speaker 3: the Reds, but like I said, I was fine if
• 4:11
  Speaker 3: it was going to be him starting. I thought it
• 4:13
  Speaker 3: might be. But, yeah, Williamson came in for the Reds,
• 4:17
  Speaker 3: and the Dodgers scored two runs in the bottom of
• 4:20
  Speaker 3: the fifth, and that's how we lost that play. If
• 4:22
  Speaker 3: they had scored one, it would have been a push.
• 4:24
  Speaker 3: But both runs were unearned, by the way. So those
• 4:28
  Speaker 3: runs both scored because of an error. So Burns, it
• 4:32
  Speaker 3: took a whole bunch of bullshit to lose that bet.
• 4:34
  Speaker 3: Burns had to be taken out of the game before
• 4:38
  Speaker 3: the fifth inning. So we get a lesser pitcher on
• 4:41
  Speaker 3: the mound. And even though it was Williamson in there
• 4:43
  Speaker 3: who's not that good, it wasn't even really his fault.
• 4:47
  Speaker 3: All the runs were unearned. It's just such bullshit, dude.
• 4:50
  Speaker 3: I'm pissed. I don't know what we're doing here. I'll
• 4:53
  Speaker 3: give out a couple more losers on the show today
• 4:55
  Speaker 3: because why not? That's what I do at this point.
• 4:58
  Speaker 3: This is getting ridiculous. This has been a horrific last month.
• 5:02
  Speaker 3: Football has begun and things are not going well in
• 5:05
  Speaker 3: football so far either. This shit needs to turn around.
• 5:09
  Speaker 3: Don't listen to anything that I have to say on
• 5:11
  Speaker 3: this show. I'm going to try to go through baseball here.
• 5:14
  Speaker 3: I don't even want to do it. Cleveland at Baltimore.
• 5:19
  Speaker 3: These teams played yesterday. Baltimore won 6-4. I thought it
• 5:22
  Speaker 3: was a bad spot for Cleveland because they were coming
• 5:27
  Speaker 3: off a big series against Detroit. Could have been a
• 5:30
  Speaker 3: letdown for Cleveland, so I thought the situation favored Baltimore.
• 5:33
  Speaker 3: I didn't love the pitching matchup. numbers for them yesterday,
• 5:37
  Speaker 3: but Baltimore got the win. These teams are both still
• 5:41
  Speaker 3: kind of fighting to make the playoffs, sort of. I
• 5:44
  Speaker 3: think Baltimore's kind of dead. Cleveland has probably a little
• 5:48
  Speaker 3: bit more motivation here because they're really... They have a
• 5:52
  Speaker 3: legitimate shot to make the playoffs, whereas I don't really
• 5:54
  Speaker 3: think Baltimore does. Cleveland used four relief pitchers yesterday. Baltimore
• 5:59
  Speaker 3: used three. Cleveland, I think they have the better bullpen ERA. Yeah,
• 6:04
  Speaker 3: they do. They're number 14, Baltimore 11 in WIP, but
• 6:07
  Speaker 3: Cleveland has the better ERA. I think Cleveland is probably
• 6:10
  Speaker 3: the better bullpen here. Cleveland's offense is terrible. They're number 28.
• 6:14
  Speaker 3: Baltimore's the better offense here. Where are they at? Number 20,
• 6:19
  Speaker 3: they're tied with Detroit. Baltimore hasn't really been that good either,
• 6:22
  Speaker 3: but better than Cleveland. Tanner Bybee getting the start for Cleveland.
• 6:26
  Speaker 3: I think he is the better starter out of the
• 6:28
  Speaker 3: two starters here. Don't look at his record because he
• 6:31
  Speaker 3: just gets no run support. He's got a 4.06 ERA,
• 6:35
  Speaker 3: which isn't really that good, but his 1.18 whip. is good,
• 6:38
  Speaker 3: indicates his ERA should be lower than that. He's been
• 6:41
  Speaker 3: a little bit better on the road, ERA-wise, 3.99, although
• 6:45
  Speaker 3: his opponent batting average is slightly worse on the road.
• 6:48
  Speaker 3: Wasn't good last time out at home against Toronto, which
• 6:50
  Speaker 3: I guess is not a very good sign because they're
• 6:52
  Speaker 3: not a good offense. He had five walks in that game,
• 6:57
  Speaker 3: which is really bad, but generally he's not been this bad.
• 7:00
  Speaker 3: Over the last month, he really hasn't been that bad.
• 7:03
  Speaker 3: He had a few good starts in a row prior
• 7:05
  Speaker 3: to that, so it could be a little bit of
• 7:06
  Speaker 3: a fluke. Or it could be that he's going out
• 7:09
  Speaker 3: of form. It's kind of hard to say right now.
• 7:12
  Speaker 3: He doesn't allow a lot of hits. His walk rate's
• 7:14
  Speaker 3: not very good, though, and his strikeout rate is somewhat
• 7:16
  Speaker 3: low at this point. So strikeout walk ratio, 2.6. That's
• 7:20
  Speaker 3: lower than what he's ever posted before. That's not exactly good.
• 7:24
  Speaker 3: It seems like his strikeout stuff is diminished. 7.1 strikeout
• 7:29
  Speaker 3: per nine, not exactly great, and he's not old either.
• 7:31
  Speaker 3: So I don't know if it's just that he's changed
• 7:33
  Speaker 3: his style or what the deal is there. He's not
• 7:37
  Speaker 3: been good against Baltimore either, and 55 at-bats,. 327 average,.
• 7:40
  Speaker 3: 864 OPS allowed, 12-3 strikeout walk ratio. That's a good number,
• 7:46
  Speaker 3: but the rest of those numbers, not good. I don't
• 7:49
  Speaker 3: know if I'd really want to trust Bybee here in
• 7:51
  Speaker 3: this one. Brandon Young is getting the start for Baltimore, 3.42 ERA,
• 7:55
  Speaker 3: but his whip is not very good, 1.31, which indicates
• 7:59
  Speaker 3: that he's actually worse than Bybee, and his ERA should
• 8:02
  Speaker 3: be worse than this. He's been a little bit better
• 8:06
  Speaker 3: at home opponent batting average-wise, but a little bit worse
• 8:09
  Speaker 3: at home ERA-wise, but his splits are really insignificant. He
• 8:12
  Speaker 3: pitched pretty well last time out against the Red Sox.
• 8:14
  Speaker 3: He's been good a couple starts in a row here,
• 8:17
  Speaker 3: so he is in pretty good form right now at least.
• 8:20
  Speaker 3: His hit rate is not great. His walk rate is fine.
• 8:24
  Speaker 3: His strikeout rate is a little bit low. Kind of
• 8:26
  Speaker 3: mediocre numbers here. 2.3 strikeout walk ratio, so his is
• 8:30
  Speaker 3: actually worse than than Bybee somehow, even though I don't
• 8:33
  Speaker 3: think he walks as many guys. I guess his strikeout
• 8:35
  Speaker 3: rate is less. It's at 7.2 strikeout per nine. He
• 8:41
  Speaker 3: has numbers that are kind of all over the place
• 8:43
  Speaker 3: against Cleveland. It's a small sample size, 13 at bat,
• 8:46
  Speaker 3: six hitters a base, and they have not hit him
• 8:48
  Speaker 3: for average, 231, but they have hit him for power, 872.
• 8:52
  Speaker 3: It's mostly because Jose Ramirez has a home run against him, though.
• 8:56
  Speaker 3: So I don't know what we really could take away
• 8:58
  Speaker 3: from this. I mean, it's not really a whole lot
• 8:59
  Speaker 3: to go by here. I think situationally, it kind of
• 9:04
  Speaker 3: makes sense to look towards Cleveland here, but the matchup
• 9:07
  Speaker 3: kind of leans towards Baltimore, in my opinion, here. I'm
• 9:11
  Speaker 3: not going to do anything with this game. They're around
• 9:13
  Speaker 3: minus 120-something here. The line hasn't moved that much. 73%
• 9:17
  Speaker 3: of tickets, 80% of the cash on Baltimore. The money
• 9:21
  Speaker 3: also heavily on the over 8.5 here. I can see
• 9:25
  Speaker 3: the argument for the over. I mean, neither pitcher has
• 9:27
  Speaker 3: particularly good matchup numbers here, it looks like, so the
• 9:30
  Speaker 3: over is... Probably worth considering here. It may actually be
• 9:33
  Speaker 3: the better way to play this game. Yeah, maybe that's
• 9:36
  Speaker 3: the best lean that I have in that game is over.
• 9:39
  Speaker 3: But whatever. I mean, I don't trust Cleveland's offense too much.
• 9:44
  Speaker 3: And Young, his matchup numbers really don't mean that much
• 9:47
  Speaker 3: against them. So, I don't know. I'd slightly lean Baltimore
• 9:49
  Speaker 3: as well. Maybe in the first five because I don't
• 9:52
  Speaker 3: really like their bullpen. But, yeah.
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: All right.
• 9:56
  Speaker 3: Garrett, what's up? Yeah.
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 10:00
  Speaker 3: Well, don't listen to me because I've been horrible. College
• 10:04
  Speaker 3: football week one, the public won in college football, which
• 10:09
  Speaker 3: obviously means I am not going to do well in
• 10:11
  Speaker 3: college football. Week one was terrible. Pretty much the idiots
• 10:16
  Speaker 3: won in week one in college football. Houston and Philadelphia,
• 10:20
  Speaker 3: TBS game here. Philadelphia played yesterday and Houston did not.
• 10:25
  Speaker 3: So Houston has a rest advantage here. Philadelphia could be
• 10:27
  Speaker 3: in a letdown as well because they got a win
• 10:29
  Speaker 3: over the Braves yesterday. So the situation here definitely favors Houston.
• 10:35
  Speaker 3: I almost made this a play because I looked at
• 10:36
  Speaker 3: it and I was like, oh yeah, Houston has a
• 10:38
  Speaker 3: better starter on the mound too. But do they though?
• 10:42
  Speaker 3: I don't know, man. I think it's actually questionable at
• 10:44
  Speaker 3: this point. Houston, they do have the rest edge, so
• 10:48
  Speaker 3: that should help. Philly didn't use any relief pitchers yesterday, though,
• 10:51
  Speaker 3: because who was it, Luzardo? Yesterday, whoever it was for
• 10:54
  Speaker 3: them went the complete game, I think. Yeah, I think
• 10:57
  Speaker 3: it was Luzardo. I think he had his first career
• 11:00
  Speaker 3: complete game shutout or something. Philadelphia's not a good bullpen.
• 11:04
  Speaker 3: They're number 18. Houston is the better bullpen. They're number 12,
• 11:09
  Speaker 3: although their ERA is still above four, which I don't
• 11:11
  Speaker 3: really love. Houston is the better offense as well. They're
• 11:15
  Speaker 3: number 13, tied with Atlanta. Philadelphia is, let me see,
• 11:21
  Speaker 3: where are they at? Philadelphia number 19. All right. Hayden
• 11:27
  Speaker 3: Wisniewski is going to pitch for Houston here. He's been decent, 3.18 ERA. 1.06
• 11:34
  Speaker 3: whip he's in a comeback season from injury after he
• 11:37
  Speaker 3: didn't pitch a whole lot last year but his numbers
• 11:39
  Speaker 3: throughout his career have been pretty good and this year
• 11:42
  Speaker 3: yeah he looks good right now he had a really
• 11:44
  Speaker 3: good outing last time out of seven inning one hit
• 11:47
  Speaker 3: shutout against the White Sox so he's in pretty good
• 11:50
  Speaker 3: form right now most of his starts have been well
• 11:53
  Speaker 3: yeah most of his starts have been good but his
• 11:54
  Speaker 3: last three he's only allowed one run over his last
• 11:57
  Speaker 3: three starts which includes the start at the Yankees as
• 12:01
  Speaker 3: well His hit rate is fairly low. His walk rate
• 12:05
  Speaker 3: is reasonable. His strikeout rate is okay. 2.4 strikeout walk
• 12:10
  Speaker 3: ratio is not really that good, though. It is lower
• 12:12
  Speaker 3: than what he's posted in the past. 7.5 strikeout per nine,
• 12:16
  Speaker 3: also a little bit lower. But he might be, like,
• 12:19
  Speaker 3: ramping his stuff back up a little bit. Like, I
• 12:21
  Speaker 3: don't really know, man. Coming back from injury, not really
• 12:23
  Speaker 3: necessarily that easy. Although I'm going to go against what
• 12:28
  Speaker 3: I just said in one of the games today. Wisniewski
• 12:31
  Speaker 3: against Philly. Has 50 at-bats against him. He's been pretty good.
• 12:36
  Speaker 3: 200 average, 686 OPS. Allowed 14 to 5 strikeout walk ratio.
• 12:42
  Speaker 3: That ratio's not that good, but the rest of those
• 12:43
  Speaker 3: numbers are good. Andrew Painter is pitching for Philly. This
• 12:48
  Speaker 3: is rookie season. It hasn't really gone that well. 5.55 ERA. 1.37
• 12:53
  Speaker 3: whip is maybe not as bad as the ERA looks.
• 12:57
  Speaker 3: He's been a little bit worse at home. 5.81 home ERA.
• 12:58
  Speaker 2: But.
• 13:01
  Speaker 3: He's been awesome recently. They sent him to the minors.
• 13:04
  Speaker 3: They brought him back up. Where was that when he
• 13:08
  Speaker 3: went to the minors? Let me see. He came back
• 13:10
  Speaker 3: up in late July, and since then, he's only allowed
• 13:13
  Speaker 3: more than three runs one time since then. He's coming
• 13:16
  Speaker 3: off a seven-inning shutout with two hits allowed against Arizona.
• 13:22
  Speaker 3: He's in good form right now. He's had three good
• 13:24
  Speaker 3: starts in a row, so Payne or I guess, I
• 13:26
  Speaker 3: don't know, figured something out when he was back in
• 13:28
  Speaker 3: the minors or something, but he's definitely pitching better right now.
• 13:31
  Speaker 3: I don't think I really want to fade him here,
• 13:32
  Speaker 3: and Houston hasn't really seen him. Only Barossa has ever
• 13:36
  Speaker 3: faced him, and he's 0-2 with a strikeout. So, situation
• 13:41
  Speaker 3: does look like it favors Houston here. I would lean Houston,
• 13:45
  Speaker 3: but I think the better way to play this game
• 13:46
  Speaker 3: might actually be the under. The money seems like it
• 13:49
  Speaker 3: is indicating on Houston. 88% of tickets lost. 76% of
• 13:53
  Speaker 3: the cash on Philly, so the public looks like they
• 13:55
  Speaker 3: are back in Philly here at around minus 140, which
• 13:58
  Speaker 3: dropped from minus 150, whatever. So some real money looks
• 14:02
  Speaker 3: like it is on Houston here. I agree with that.
• 14:05
  Speaker 3: I think full game as well because they have the
• 14:07
  Speaker 3: better bullpen. The money's on the over here, 78% of tickets,
• 14:11
  Speaker 3: 94% of the cash on the over, but I like
• 14:13
  Speaker 3: the under. Maybe first five because Philly's bullpen is kind
• 14:17
  Speaker 3: of untrustworthy, but Philly, how many... They didn't use any
• 14:21
  Speaker 3: relief pitchers yesterday, like I said. So, yeah, I think
• 14:23
  Speaker 3: the full game under might make sense in this one,
• 14:26
  Speaker 3: even including both bullpens. I don't love Phillies, but at
• 14:29
  Speaker 3: least they're rested here. Both starters might do well, so
• 14:32
  Speaker 3: I think an under might make sense in that one. Yeah,
• 14:37
  Speaker 3: I mean, I don't know. Did Luzardo have good numbers
• 14:39
  Speaker 3: against the Braves? He might have. I don't remember. Dirty Sock,
• 14:43
  Speaker 3: what's up? Thanks for hanging out. All right. Dude, seriously,
• 14:47
  Speaker 3: why is anybody even listening to the show at this point? Like,
• 14:50
  Speaker 3: what is wrong with you? Like, seriously. I'm never going
• 14:54
  Speaker 3: to get another play right. Like, I'm one for my
• 14:56
  Speaker 3: last ten, so why the fuck would you listen to me?
• 14:59
  Speaker 3: Even if, debatably, I should have won all three plays yesterday,
• 15:02
  Speaker 3: why would you ever listen to anything that I'm saying here?
• 15:06
  Speaker 3: Minnesota and Detroit, yeah, let's talk about this fucking series.
• 15:09
  Speaker 3: Detroit won the game 5-4 yesterday, but I needed Minnesota
• 15:12
  Speaker 3: in the first five, and Joe Ryan has to go
• 15:15
  Speaker 3: out and shit the bed again, including hitting a guy
• 15:18
  Speaker 3: with the bases loaded. Fuck you, Joe. You piece of shit.
• 15:23
  Speaker 3: Minnesota has the worst bullpen out of the two. Detroit
• 15:26
  Speaker 3: used four relief pitchers yesterday. I think that's what it was.
• 15:30
  Speaker 3: Minnesota didn't use any because, you know how I said
• 15:33
  Speaker 3: it was possibly going to be pre-lip pitching that game? Well,
• 15:36
  Speaker 3: guess what? They both pitched. Joe Ryan pitched and then
• 15:39
  Speaker 3: pre-lip pitched the rest of the game. So both of
• 15:42
  Speaker 3: them pitched and Minnesota saved their bullpen, but nothing could
• 15:45
  Speaker 3: save their bullpen. Their bullpen's terrible. They're number 29. I
• 15:48
  Speaker 3: think they're Not the second worst bullpen. Maybe the third
• 15:52
  Speaker 3: or fourth worst bullpen, though. They're bad. Detroit is, let
• 15:56
  Speaker 3: me see, 16th. Yeah, Detroit definitely the better bullpen. Minnesota's
• 16:01
  Speaker 3: the better offense. They're number nine. Detroit's number 20. Dean
• 16:05
  Speaker 3: Creamer getting the start for Minnesota here. Yeah, not good. 5.81 ERA, 1.31 WIP.
• 16:14
  Speaker 3: goy goyim gas oh my god that is a ridiculous
• 16:18
  Speaker 3: name what's up man um yeah baseball i'm usually pretty
• 16:22
  Speaker 3: good at it it's been one of my better sports
• 16:24
  Speaker 3: but yeah i don't know it gets really really streaky
• 16:28
  Speaker 3: and then like it's a different way of handicapping it
• 16:30
  Speaker 3: feels like like i never feel confident in what i'm
• 16:33
  Speaker 3: doing i feel way more confident in every other sport
• 16:36
  Speaker 3: i have no idea what to say about that even
• 16:38
  Speaker 3: though baseball has generally been good for me and i
• 16:40
  Speaker 3: had my best run ever In 2014, during May, which
• 16:45
  Speaker 3: was during baseball season, it was baseball plus NBA playoffs,
• 16:49
  Speaker 3: but I went on like a 25-2 run or something
• 16:52
  Speaker 3: like that, and it was mostly baseball. All right, creamer. 6.53
• 16:58
  Speaker 3: road era obviously that's not good he's not pitching well
• 17:02
  Speaker 3: recently three of his last four starts have been bad
• 17:05
  Speaker 3: Minnesota's lost all but one start that he's made since
• 17:07
  Speaker 3: they got him the only one that he won was
• 17:10
  Speaker 3: against his former team Baltimore he stepped up for that
• 17:13
  Speaker 3: one and then since then he's been pretty much awful
• 17:16
  Speaker 3: he's not a very good pitcher his hit rate is
• 17:19
  Speaker 3: whatever it's mediocre at best Walk rate is somewhat okay.
• 17:24
  Speaker 3: His strikeout rate is decent, though. He does have a 2.8
• 17:27
  Speaker 3: strikeout walk ratio, which I guess isn't too bad. 8.9
• 17:31
  Speaker 3: strikeout per nine is decent. Against Detroit, he is not decent.
• 17:36
  Speaker 3: 105 at-bats against them, 314 average allowed, 889 OPS, 23
• 17:42
  Speaker 3: to 12 strikeout walk ratio. None of these numbers are good.
• 17:45
  Speaker 3: So yeah, Kramer does not have a good matchup here.
• 17:48
  Speaker 3: He's also terrible on the road. So I would say
• 17:51
  Speaker 3: Detroit should score some runs in this one. Do you
• 17:54
  Speaker 3: want to back Detroit's pitching scenario, though, which is a
• 17:57
  Speaker 3: bullpen game for them with Drew Anderson starting? He's not
• 18:01
  Speaker 3: that good. He's not as good as the ZRA makes
• 18:03
  Speaker 3: him look. He is a little bit better at home,
• 18:05
  Speaker 3: or he's significantly better at home, actually. And actually, he's
• 18:08
  Speaker 3: been kind of starting recently. So, yeah, I mean, he
• 18:12
  Speaker 3: has a 3.73 ERA, 1.3 whip, which includes his relief appearances.
• 18:16
  Speaker 3: But he's actually been all right. in his last four appearances,
• 18:20
  Speaker 3: which I think have all been starts. He's gone five
• 18:22
  Speaker 3: innings and three out of the four. Hasn't allowed more
• 18:25
  Speaker 3: than 300 runs in any of them. So even though
• 18:28
  Speaker 3: he's not great at all, I mean, he's been serviceable.
• 18:32
  Speaker 3: His hit rate's all right. His walk rate is not great.
• 18:35
  Speaker 3: His strikeout rate is actually high, though. But relievers tend
• 18:38
  Speaker 3: to have higher strikeout rates. He's got a 2.7 strikeout
• 18:42
  Speaker 3: walk ratio, which is one of the highest that he's posted,
• 18:45
  Speaker 3: although we're dealing with all small sample sizes. This is
• 18:49
  Speaker 3: the longest that he's ever pitched in a Major League
• 18:51
  Speaker 3: Baseball season. He had not pitched in Major League Baseball
• 18:54
  Speaker 3: at all since 2021, and his career never took off.
• 18:57
  Speaker 3: So I'm wondering, was he in Japan or something during
• 19:00
  Speaker 3: those years? A lot of times you see a big
• 19:02
  Speaker 3: gap like that. A lot of times it means these
• 19:04
  Speaker 3: guys were pitching professionally in a different country or something.
• 19:08
  Speaker 3: He's got a 9.9 strikeout per nine, which is all
• 19:10
  Speaker 3: right His numbers against Minnesota are also good 30 at
• 19:14
  Speaker 3: bats 167 average 531 OPS allowed 7 of 4 strikeout
• 19:19
  Speaker 3: walk ratio Yes, so I mean this is not on
• 19:22
  Speaker 3: my card because I just maybe I just can't deal
• 19:24
  Speaker 3: with bullpen games But I think Detroit is probably the
• 19:27
  Speaker 3: right way to play this but the money is not
• 19:29
  Speaker 3: saying that 87% of tickets on Detroit 52% on the
• 19:31
  Speaker 3: couch on Minnesota and Makes no sense to me. I mean, Minnesota,
• 19:37
  Speaker 3: I guess, is the, if you want to call them
• 19:40
  Speaker 3: the more motivated team, maybe, because Detroit pretty much knows
• 19:44
  Speaker 3: they're not making the playoffs at this point, but they're
• 19:46
  Speaker 3: obviously trying to win these games. I mean, they won yesterday.
• 19:50
  Speaker 3: like at the very least it's a divisional series Detroit
• 19:53
  Speaker 3: has a chance to spoil Minnesota season and take them
• 19:56
  Speaker 3: down with them so that neither team makes the playoffs
• 19:59
  Speaker 3: you know what I mean uh so it's not like
• 20:01
  Speaker 3: Detroit's unmotivated here but yeah 87 percent of tickets on
• 20:04
  Speaker 3: Detroit 52 percent of the cash on Minnesota I don't
• 20:07
  Speaker 3: get that I think Detroit has the better Pitching scenario here,
• 20:11
  Speaker 3: and yeah, I mean, that's what it is. Detroit has
• 20:15
  Speaker 3: the better matchup here. The total's at eight. The money
• 20:19
  Speaker 3: is coming in on the over. I probably agree with
• 20:22
  Speaker 3: the over here as well. Maybe it's just me never
• 20:25
  Speaker 3: trusting bullpen games. I think the over makes some sense,
• 20:28
  Speaker 3: but I think my preference would actually just be to
• 20:30
  Speaker 3: play Detroit here, or you could play Detroit over their
• 20:33
  Speaker 3: team total, and then you don't have to guess what
• 20:37
  Speaker 3: the hell Detroit's pitching is actually going to look like
• 20:39
  Speaker 3: in this game. You could just go with Detroit to
• 20:42
  Speaker 3: score off of Creamer, Cream Creamer, which looks like they
• 20:46
  Speaker 3: definitely should do that here. Plus, Minnesota's bullpen is horrible,
• 20:50
  Speaker 3: so that does make some sense as well. You'll need
• 20:54
  Speaker 3: Detroit to probably score... Maybe you'll get away with them
• 20:58
  Speaker 3: scoring five runs there if you take them over. Yes, sir. Well,
• 21:05
  Speaker 3: that was 2014. That was the best month in my
• 21:08
  Speaker 3: entire career, yeah. But yeah, I mean, I had a
• 21:10
  Speaker 3: really good run like that. Some of that was basketball
• 21:13
  Speaker 3: as well, but yeah. I don't think it's going to
• 21:16
  Speaker 3: come back. I mean, I know it will because I've
• 21:19
  Speaker 3: done this for a long enough time that I know
• 21:21
  Speaker 3: these are like the downswings. It's all variants, but yeah, whatever.
• 21:26
  Speaker 3: I'm really, really not happy about this right now. Maybe
• 21:30
  Speaker 3: once NFL starts, things will turn around. But NFL week
• 21:33
  Speaker 3: one is... A questionable week, man, and I haven't really
• 21:35
  Speaker 3: decided what my plays are going to be yet. I
• 21:37
  Speaker 3: think I have one that's definitely going to be one,
• 21:39
  Speaker 3: but I don't know. All right, Mets-Miami here. I said
• 21:45
  Speaker 3: Miami was in a letdown spot yesterday after they beat
• 21:48
  Speaker 3: the Cubs, and yeah, they got let down. They lost
• 21:50
  Speaker 3: to the Mets yesterday. The Mets are playing pretty well
• 21:53
  Speaker 3: now that they have no pressure on them. The Mets
• 21:55
  Speaker 3: are just playing loose baseball, and they're playing well here.
• 21:58
  Speaker 3: I don't think the Mets are going to win this game, though.
• 22:02
  Speaker 3: I think it might be a bounce back for Miami.
• 22:03
  Speaker 3: Miami is still technically alive in the playoff race, so
• 22:06
  Speaker 3: that might motivate them here. Miami used three relief pitchers yesterday.
• 22:10
  Speaker 3: I think the Mets have the better bullpen, though. The
• 22:13
  Speaker 3: Mets used four guys out of the bullpen. The Mets
• 22:16
  Speaker 3: are sixth in bullpen. Miami ninth. The Mets' ERA is.
• 22:20
  Speaker 3: 3 runs better. So, yeah, we'll give the Mets the
• 22:22
  Speaker 3: bullpen edge there. Miami is the better offense. They're number 11,
• 22:26
  Speaker 3: even if I don't think they're that good. The Mets
• 22:28
  Speaker 3: are number 26th. Sean Minaya is getting the start for
• 22:31
  Speaker 3: the Mets, though. Really, really mediocre here. 4.7 ERA, 1.36 whip.
• 22:38
  Speaker 3: He's a little bit better on the road, 4.57 road ERA.
• 22:42
  Speaker 3: Last few starts have been pretty bad, though. He started
• 22:45
  Speaker 3: allowing a bunch of runs again. He's definitely gone out
• 22:47
  Speaker 3: of form. Was really, really hittable over his last two starts,
• 22:50
  Speaker 3: although granted it was against Milwaukee and Tampa. Those are
• 22:54
  Speaker 3: better offenses than Miami, but... I don't know if he's
• 22:57
  Speaker 3: going to turn it around against Miami here. His hit
• 23:00
  Speaker 3: rate is too high on the season. It's over one
• 23:02
  Speaker 3: per inning. I mean, you can't do that. His walk
• 23:04
  Speaker 3: rate is mediocre. His strikeout rate is okay. Strikeout walk
• 23:08
  Speaker 3: ratio is basically average, I would say, at three. Maybe
• 23:14
  Speaker 3: that's a little bit above average. 8.6 strikeout per nine
• 23:17
  Speaker 3: is nothing special. Numbers against Miami, not very good, although
• 23:21
  Speaker 3: it's a small sample, 20 at-bats, but the majority of
• 23:24
  Speaker 3: their bats are Have faced him before. 350 average. 931
• 23:28
  Speaker 3: OPS against him. 3-1 strikeout walk ratio. So I would
• 23:32
  Speaker 3: not trust Minaya here. He's in bad form right now.
• 23:36
  Speaker 3: Does not have good matchup numbers. And he's the lesser
• 23:38
  Speaker 3: pitcher generally anyway. Against Sandy Alcantara. Who's had a pretty
• 23:42
  Speaker 3: good season. 3.54 ERA, 1.19 whip. Uh, if you watch
• 23:47
  Speaker 3: him pitch, his velocity is actually back, which it kind
• 23:50
  Speaker 3: of makes me question why his strikeouts, like why is
• 23:53
  Speaker 3: his strikeout number still really low? If his velocity is back,
• 23:57
  Speaker 3: I don't really know the answer to that, but he's
• 23:59
  Speaker 3: pitching pretty well. He's been really good at home. 2.58
• 24:01
  Speaker 3: home ERA. Um, wasn't great in his last couple of starts.
• 24:06
  Speaker 3: His strikeout rate is still really low. Uh, Gave up
• 24:10
  Speaker 3: eight runs over his last 12 innings, which is not good.
• 24:13
  Speaker 3: Miami's lost his last five starts. But he was pitching
• 24:16
  Speaker 3: pretty well for the most part, and even those last
• 24:18
  Speaker 3: two starts weren't really that bad, and they were both
• 24:21
  Speaker 3: on the road. So I'm not really going to knock
• 24:23
  Speaker 3: him too much for any of that. His hit rate's
• 24:25
  Speaker 3: all right. His walk rate, just because he's pitched so
• 24:28
  Speaker 3: many innings, yeah, that number of walks isn't too bad.
• 24:31
  Speaker 3: The strikeout rate is very low, though, which he used
• 24:34
  Speaker 3: to be a pretty good strikeout pitcher. He's got a 2.8
• 24:37
  Speaker 3: strikeout walk ratio, though. which is not too bad given
• 24:39
  Speaker 3: how low the strikeout rate is. It's his lowest ever, 6.5.
• 24:44
  Speaker 3: As you can see, he's never been a huge strikeout guy,
• 24:47
  Speaker 3: I guess, but throughout his career, he's obviously been a
• 24:49
  Speaker 3: better strikeout pitcher than this. His numbers against the Mets
• 24:53
  Speaker 3: are mediocre. In 129 at-bats, 264 average, 740 OPS, 18
• 24:56
  Speaker 3: to 11 strikeout walk ratio is not very good, but
• 24:59
  Speaker 3: 10 of the 11 walks come from the two big
• 25:05
  Speaker 3: bats in the lineup that both do damage against them,
• 25:07
  Speaker 3: which is Lindor and Soto. That's like the majority of
• 25:11
  Speaker 3: these at bats here. And they both do really well
• 25:12
  Speaker 3: against them, uh, or pretty well, at least with Lindor.
• 25:16
  Speaker 3: I mean, possible player prop potential there. Cause you get
• 25:19
  Speaker 3: big at bat numbers there. Soto, I think would be
• 25:22
  Speaker 3: the best, uh, player prop out of those guys, uh,
• 25:25
  Speaker 3: which I don't really do much with player props, but
• 25:27
  Speaker 3: hits plus runs plus RBIs over is what I usually recommend. Um,
• 25:32
  Speaker 3: when you find a guy that does well in a
• 25:34
  Speaker 3: big sample against a pitcher. But, yeah, I like Miami
• 25:36
  Speaker 3: in this game. I think they're the better team, and
• 25:39
  Speaker 3: I like them to bounce back here, and they have
• 25:41
  Speaker 3: the better starter on the mound. Maybe first five because
• 25:45
  Speaker 3: the bullpen probably does go to the Mets a little
• 25:47
  Speaker 3: bit here. We're looking at minus 130 or so. The
• 25:50
  Speaker 3: number actually went down a little bit on Miami. It
• 25:53
  Speaker 3: looks like it might be below 130 here. They have
• 25:56
  Speaker 3: 84% of the tickets on them, so they are public.
• 25:58
  Speaker 3: The public wants nothing to do with the Mets, but
• 26:00
  Speaker 3: also 94% of the cash. on miami so it looks
• 26:04
  Speaker 3: like maybe the real money is coming back in on
• 26:07
  Speaker 3: miami as well and there's a lot of money on
• 26:09
  Speaker 3: the under in this game as well under eight i
• 26:12
  Speaker 3: don't have a great feel for that because you have
• 26:13
  Speaker 3: one pitcher who looks like he matches up not too
• 26:15
  Speaker 3: well the other one mediocre i don't know man i
• 26:20
  Speaker 3: don't think i'd want the under i think there might
• 26:21
  Speaker 3: be a little bit more of an indicator for me
• 26:23
  Speaker 3: towards the over in that game the market is definitely
• 26:25
  Speaker 3: saying under so whatever It is a pitcher-friendly park, I
• 26:30
  Speaker 3: will say that. But yeah, I think Miami is the
• 26:32
  Speaker 3: right way to look in that game. Maybe first five, though,
• 26:35
  Speaker 3: but you'll have to pay a little bit more of
• 26:36
  Speaker 3: a price for it. You might be looking at minus
• 26:38
  Speaker 3: a half run if you do it that way. Yes,
• 26:44
  Speaker 3: it has been very blackpilling, that is true. Wait, whoa, whoa, whoa. You...
• 26:51
  Speaker 3: You cashed out. Oh, you cashed out and you missed
• 26:54
  Speaker 3: out on a six-figure payout. Is that what you're saying? $ 639, 000?
• 26:59
  Speaker 3: No way, man. Well, I don't recommend parlays at all.
• 27:03
  Speaker 3: And I think if you do a parlay at all,
• 27:05
  Speaker 3: I think it should be at most two legs because
• 27:07
  Speaker 3: it limits the variance. And there are some pros that'll
• 27:10
  Speaker 3: do it just to take two favorites that they really
• 27:13
  Speaker 3: like and knock the price down on them. But I
• 27:15
  Speaker 3: don't even recommend that. The only parlay that I would
• 27:18
  Speaker 3: even really recommend would be a correlated one. with like
• 27:22
  Speaker 3: a side and total that are correlated but a lot
• 27:25
  Speaker 3: of books won't even let you do that because they
• 27:26
  Speaker 3: know that it's actually correlated so I just I don't
• 27:30
  Speaker 3: even do parlays the books don't give you good enough
• 27:33
  Speaker 3: odds on them anyway week one yes what about week
• 27:36
  Speaker 3: one I will have my my NFL show um well
• 27:40
  Speaker 3: I'm going to talk about obviously there's a game tomorrow
• 27:42
  Speaker 3: which I'll talk about on the morning show there's a
• 27:44
  Speaker 3: game Thursday which I'll talk about on the morning show
• 27:47
  Speaker 3: and then um Saturday night will be the Sunday NFL
• 27:51
  Speaker 3: show that I do.
• 27:52
  Speaker 2: All right.
• 27:54
  Speaker 3: And then Friday night, I got to do the college
• 27:55
  Speaker 3: football show, which is way more taxing. Anaheim and Boston.
• 28:02
  Speaker 3: I'm hoping this show, this morning, doesn't take too long.
• 28:04
  Speaker 3: We only have baseball to get through today. Red Sox,
• 28:07
  Speaker 3: my Red Sox, have won five games in a row.
• 28:10
  Speaker 3: They won yesterday. Bayo, starter Bayo, actually did all right yesterday.
• 28:14
  Speaker 3: I'm not happy about it because we missed on the
• 28:16
  Speaker 3: over eight in that game, and it probably should have
• 28:19
  Speaker 3: been a win. I think there were about 15, 16
• 28:21
  Speaker 3: hits in that game. So it definitely could have gone over.
• 28:27
  Speaker 3: Will the Red Sox be able to continue this with
• 28:29
  Speaker 3: another shitty starter on the mound? I mean, when I
• 28:32
  Speaker 3: looked at this pitching matchup, I was like, no. The
• 28:35
  Speaker 3: better starter is obviously Anaheim in this one. But if
• 28:39
  Speaker 3: you look at the matchup numbers, that's not really necessarily
• 28:41
  Speaker 3: the case. But in general, yes, it is. The Red
• 28:46
  Speaker 3: Sox have the better bullpen. They used three actual relievers
• 28:49
  Speaker 3: yesterday because Bayo obviously is listed here as one of
• 28:51
  Speaker 3: the relief arms that pitched yesterday. Red Sox have the
• 28:56
  Speaker 3: better bullpen. Anaheim used three guys. Red Sox have the
• 28:59
  Speaker 3: number one bullpen whip and the number two ERA. Anaheim's
• 29:03
  Speaker 3: not even close to that. They're number 23. Red Sox
• 29:06
  Speaker 3: have the better offense as well. They're number eight. Anaheim
• 29:09
  Speaker 3: is dead last, number 30. And it kind of showed
• 29:13
  Speaker 3: yesterday with the fact they couldn't even hit Bayo. Will
• 29:15
  Speaker 3: they be able to hit Sandoval, who's even worse than Bayo?
• 29:18
  Speaker 3: I don't know, man. Reed Detmers is on the mound
• 29:21
  Speaker 3: for Anaheim. He's good. You know, if you watch my show,
• 29:24
  Speaker 3: I like him, and I think he goes way under
• 29:25
  Speaker 3: the radar. Like, people just never talk about this guy
• 29:28
  Speaker 3: because he's on a shitty team. He's got a 3.44 ERA, 1.06 whip.
• 29:34
  Speaker 3: That's not bad at all. He's slightly worse on the road, 3.8
• 29:37
  Speaker 3: road ERA. Really good. last time out against the Yankees.
• 29:41
  Speaker 3: He dominated the Yankees and they still managed to somehow
• 29:44
  Speaker 3: lose that game even though Detmers was awesome. They lost
• 29:48
  Speaker 3: in extra innings. He had a seven inning one run
• 29:50
  Speaker 3: performance in that one with eight strikeouts and no walks.
• 29:53
  Speaker 3: He's given up Three runs combined over his last, what
• 29:57
  Speaker 3: is that, five starts, going at least six innings in
• 30:00
  Speaker 3: all of them. So his last 31 innings, he's allowed
• 30:04
  Speaker 3: three runs. Yeah, I would say that's good form. And
• 30:08
  Speaker 3: he's only had five walks over that entire span, as
• 30:11
  Speaker 3: opposed to whatever the hell this is. 32 strikeouts, I
• 30:16
  Speaker 3: think is what that is, if my math is mathing here.
• 30:19
  Speaker 3: He's got a low hit rate, low walk rate, high
• 30:22
  Speaker 3: strikeout rate. These numbers are all... quite strong 4.1 strikeout
• 30:26
  Speaker 3: walk ratio is the best that he's ever had 10.1
• 30:29
  Speaker 3: strikeout nine uh is not the best but it's still
• 30:32
  Speaker 3: good his numbers against the red socks though not good
• 30:36
  Speaker 3: in 52 at bats 308 average allowed 849 ops 18
• 30:40
  Speaker 3: to 5 strikeout walk ratios detmers for whatever reason he
• 30:44
  Speaker 3: has not been good against the Red Sox, and even
• 30:47
  Speaker 3: lefty Jaron Duran has hit him well, even though he
• 30:50
  Speaker 3: is a lefty. Detmers is a lefty, so left on
• 30:54
  Speaker 3: left doesn't even really help him. Detmers pitched against the
• 30:58
  Speaker 3: Red Sox in Anaheim in early July, and he wasn't
• 31:01
  Speaker 3: really good in that start. Gave up five runs in
• 31:03
  Speaker 3: five innings, so yeah, he might not pitch well here,
• 31:06
  Speaker 3: but he's like, he's clearly the better of these two pitchers,
• 31:09
  Speaker 3: which is why I struggle with this, like, I thought
• 31:12
  Speaker 3: this might wind up being a play for me on Anaheim,
• 31:14
  Speaker 3: because Detmers is so much better than Sandoval, but maybe not,
• 31:18
  Speaker 3: because the matchup numbers don't look good, Patrick Sandoval is
• 31:21
  Speaker 3: pitching for the Red Sox, this guy is an absolute disaster, 4.41
• 31:26
  Speaker 3: ERA doesn't look that bad, don't even look at that,
• 31:28
  Speaker 3: he has a 1.73 whip, like, That's bad enough that
• 31:32
  Speaker 3: you shouldn't even be in a starting rotation, man. That
• 31:35
  Speaker 3: is so bad. His opponent batting average is above 300,
• 31:38
  Speaker 3: both at home and on the road. That is horrible.
• 31:41
  Speaker 3: His ERA is a little bit better at home, whatever. 4.07.
• 31:45
  Speaker 3: This guy sucks. He sucks. I don't know how he's
• 31:49
  Speaker 3: allowed three or fewer earned runs in all but two
• 31:50
  Speaker 3: of his starts. He's getting away with pitching like total
• 31:54
  Speaker 3: shit all over the place. His numbers here are terrible.
• 31:59
  Speaker 3: He has 11 more hits than innings pitched. His strikeout
• 32:03
  Speaker 3: walk ratio is 2. I mean, this is crap. This
• 32:06
  Speaker 3: is absolute crap, even though his strikeout rate is alright.
• 32:09
  Speaker 3: He's got a 2 strikeout walk ratio because his walk
• 32:12
  Speaker 3: rate is so bad. 9.2 strikeouts per 9. He might
• 32:16
  Speaker 3: get up a little bit extra for this, though, because
• 32:18
  Speaker 3: he's facing his former team for the first time. He
• 32:22
  Speaker 3: was on Anaheim for his entire career between 2019, 2024.
• 32:26
  Speaker 3: Didn't pitch in the majors last year at all, probably
• 32:29
  Speaker 3: because he sucks ass. His numbers over his career are
• 32:32
  Speaker 3: not good, although he somehow managed to have an ERA
• 32:35
  Speaker 3: way lower than his whip would suggest throughout his whole career.
• 32:39
  Speaker 3: So he's just had a lucky career. I don't know
• 32:41
  Speaker 3: what else to tell you. But this is going to
• 32:43
  Speaker 3: be the first time that he's faced Anaheim ever so
• 32:48
  Speaker 3: he might get a little bit extra excited for that
• 32:51
  Speaker 3: facing the team that let him go and he's actually
• 32:53
  Speaker 3: been good against the hitters that have seen him before
• 32:55
  Speaker 3: in this lineup they have five guys who have faced
• 32:58
  Speaker 3: him 17 at bats really only siri has done any
• 33:02
  Speaker 3: damage against him uh siri may be giving him the
• 33:06
  Speaker 3: wrong answers to his questions um he's got the only
• 33:09
  Speaker 3: extra base hit again siri is a guy what Syria
• 33:13
  Speaker 3: is the only extra base hit against them, a double.
• 33:15
  Speaker 3: 235 batting average allowed for Sandoval against these guys. 610 OPS,
• 33:20
  Speaker 3: 5-2 strikeout walk ratio. It's a small sample, though. I
• 33:25
  Speaker 3: was thinking Anaheim would be the right side here, but
• 33:28
  Speaker 3: I don't trust Detmers against the Red Sox specifically. Red
• 33:31
  Speaker 3: Sox have 82% of the tickets. Obviously, they're going to
• 33:34
  Speaker 3: be public. 88% of the cash, though, and they're around
• 33:37
  Speaker 3: minus 140 here. The line hasn't moved a whole lot.
• 33:41
  Speaker 3: Maybe you could just play the over here. I mean,
• 33:43
  Speaker 3: the number's 7.5, which is pretty low considering Detmers does
• 33:48
  Speaker 3: not have good numbers against the Red Sox. Sandoval is
• 33:50
  Speaker 3: not a good pitcher. So to me, it seems like
• 33:54
  Speaker 3: there are multiple different ways that this game could go
• 33:56
  Speaker 3: over the total. So that's probably the way I would
• 33:58
  Speaker 3: play this if I was going to play it. 65%
• 34:00
  Speaker 3: of tickets, 87% of the cash on the over. I
• 34:04
  Speaker 3: don't love playing overs when the total's low, though, because
• 34:06
  Speaker 3: the odds makers are usually telling you, that they do
• 34:09
  Speaker 3: not think this game is going to be high scoring.
• 34:10
  Speaker 3: But based on what we see here, yeah, I think
• 34:14
  Speaker 3: over might be the better approach in that game. Yankees
• 34:20
  Speaker 3: and Toronto. Well, you're trying to get the price on
• 34:22
  Speaker 3: the Yankees down. Yeah, I don't know about that. I mean,
• 34:27
  Speaker 3: the Yankees are in a terrible spot, so I would
• 34:29
  Speaker 3: not want to be on the Yankees in a return
• 34:30
  Speaker 3: home from the Pacific Coast. Why would you do that? No,
• 34:35
  Speaker 3: no thank you. Wait, what did you bet week one
• 34:40
  Speaker 3: of the NFL? Wait, why is it your worst nightmare?
• 34:43
  Speaker 3: The games have not happened yet. Wait, am I in
• 34:49
  Speaker 3: a GC with you? Who are you? What are we
• 34:54
  Speaker 3: doing here, man? What are we doing here? Padres and Dodgers?
• 34:58
  Speaker 3: Stop throwing your money away, dude. I don't know what
• 35:01
  Speaker 3: to tell you. Parleys are not a good idea, like
• 35:03
  Speaker 3: basically ever and ever. I just don't know what you're
• 35:06
  Speaker 3: doing here. I don't even like some of these plays.
• 35:09
  Speaker 3: I don't even like like, I mean, Toronto just looks
• 35:12
  Speaker 3: way too obvious. They're just way too high of a price.
• 35:15
  Speaker 3: Like that just doesn't seem like something I would want
• 35:18
  Speaker 3: to do. The Yankees are just way overpriced and they're
• 35:22
  Speaker 3: in a return home spot. I mean, I'm going to
• 35:24
  Speaker 3: talk about all these games. I'm about to talk about
• 35:25
  Speaker 3: the Yankees game right now. Like, what are we doing here?
• 35:28
  Speaker 1: San Diego?
• 35:29
  Speaker 3: I do agree with Dodgers again, like, Even if you're
• 35:34
  Speaker 3: getting the price down in a parlay, still, the Dodgers
• 35:37
  Speaker 3: are way overpriced. I think that game could be close,
• 35:42
  Speaker 3: as you'll see when I talk about that game. I've
• 35:44
  Speaker 3: got to get through all these games here, man. Yankees
• 35:47
  Speaker 3: are returning home from a road trip. Like I said,
• 35:49
  Speaker 3: they were in Anaheim and in San Diego. They had
• 35:51
  Speaker 3: yesterday off. So did Colorado, though. So neither team has
• 35:55
  Speaker 3: a rest edge here. Both teams had yesterday off. You know,
• 35:58
  Speaker 3: I don't like this. When a team's returning home from
• 36:00
  Speaker 3: the road, I think it's a negative spot. you get distracted.
• 36:03
  Speaker 3: You have to get back to home life. Do you
• 36:05
  Speaker 3: really think the Yankees are going to put that much
• 36:07
  Speaker 3: focus on Colorado? I mean, this is one of the
• 36:10
  Speaker 3: worst teams in baseball. So no, I mean, can the
• 36:12
  Speaker 3: Yankees win without even having focus? Yeah, probably. Cause the
• 36:15
  Speaker 3: Rockies are an ass team, but I would not be
• 36:19
  Speaker 3: trying to play the Yankees in a spot like this.
• 36:22
  Speaker 3: And the price is going to be too high. Even
• 36:24
  Speaker 3: if you knock it down with a parlay, just, yeah,
• 36:27
  Speaker 3: there's no way. There's no way. Uh, Colorado is coming in,
• 36:31
  Speaker 3: starting a road trip here, so usually that's a focus
• 36:33
  Speaker 3: spot to start a road trip. You know, I like
• 36:36
  Speaker 3: teams starting a road trip. Have you learned nothing from me?
• 36:38
  Speaker 3: I like teams that start road trips against teams returning
• 36:41
  Speaker 3: home from road trips. I think it's a much more
• 36:43
  Speaker 3: focused spot. I know Colorado's the way worse team here, obviously,
• 36:47
  Speaker 3: which is why the price is where it is. The
• 36:49
  Speaker 3: Yankees have the way better bullpen. They're number one in ERA,
• 36:52
  Speaker 3: number two in WIPP. Colorado's number 27 in whip. Yeah,
• 36:56
  Speaker 3: we know this. Colorado is the better offense. They're number four.
• 37:02
  Speaker 3: Probably not as good on the road, though. Yankees are
• 37:05
  Speaker 3: better at home offensively. They're number 16 overall, tied with Texas,
• 37:10
  Speaker 3: which I guess is maybe not that good of a sign.
• 37:12
  Speaker 3: Although Aaron Judge is coming back. I'm pretty sure he's
• 37:15
  Speaker 3: back today, so that is something to consider. Judge will
• 37:18
  Speaker 3: be back in the lineup, I believe. But will he
• 37:21
  Speaker 3: be cold? I don't know, man. It will help the
• 37:24
  Speaker 3: Yankees' offense, but it might not help them in the
• 37:27
  Speaker 3: immediate that much. Hughes, Gabriel Hughes is pitching for Colorado.
• 37:32
  Speaker 3: He's a young dude. His numbers obviously suck because he's
• 37:36
  Speaker 3: a Colorado pitcher. 6.19 ERA, 1.43 whip. He's not one
• 37:42
  Speaker 3: of these guys that does worse in Colorado, though. In fact,
• 37:45
  Speaker 3: he's somehow way better in Colorado. That makes no sense
• 37:50
  Speaker 3: to me. He's got a 9 ERA on the road. So, yeah,
• 37:54
  Speaker 3: do I want to back him?
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: No.
• 37:56
  Speaker 3: No, I do not. He's not pitching well here. I mean,
• 37:59
  Speaker 3: he gave up one run last time out of kind
• 38:00
  Speaker 3: of a short outing against Baltimore, but he's not going
• 38:03
  Speaker 3: deep into these games. He's walking too many guys. None
• 38:06
  Speaker 3: of this is very good. His hit rate's too high.
• 38:08
  Speaker 3: His walk rate's too high. His strikeout rate's too low.
• 38:11
  Speaker 3: None of that's good. Two strikeout walk ratio, 7.2 strikeout
• 38:14
  Speaker 3: per nine. Yeah, we know this is bad. The Yankees
• 38:18
  Speaker 3: have two hitters who have faced him, Garcia Jr. and Ramos,
• 38:22
  Speaker 3: so obviously it was a couple of the guys they
• 38:23
  Speaker 3: picked up at the trade deadline. They're one for four
• 38:26
  Speaker 3: off him with a single. Ramos has the only hit,
• 38:29
  Speaker 3: two strikeouts, no walks. Do I think Hughes is going
• 38:32
  Speaker 3: to pitch well here? No, I do not. Cam Schlittler
• 38:36
  Speaker 3: is on the other side, and obviously this is a
• 38:37
  Speaker 3: huge pitching mismatch. He's the Cy Young frontrunner, 2.04 ERA,.
• 38:42
  Speaker 3: 94 whip. Good season, obviously. However, he's significantly worse at home. 3.41
• 38:48
  Speaker 3: home ERA, so Schlittler, for whatever reason, he's completely dominant
• 38:53
  Speaker 3: on the road, and he's much more vulnerable at home.
• 38:56
  Speaker 3: I mean, the Yankees do play in a hitter-friendly stadium.
• 38:59
  Speaker 3: He was really good last time out at Anaheim, but
• 39:01
  Speaker 3: that was a road game against a really bad offense.
• 39:04
  Speaker 3: In fact, the league worst offense and also the worst
• 39:07
  Speaker 3: home offense in baseball. He nominated them. But prior to that,
• 39:12
  Speaker 3: his walk rate was going up. He wasn't pitching that
• 39:14
  Speaker 3: well prior to that. And you do have to worry
• 39:16
  Speaker 3: about the fact that he's thrown 171 plus innings here,
• 39:20
  Speaker 3: which is something he hasn't done before. So these young guys,
• 39:23
  Speaker 3: a lot of times they do start tiring out. I
• 39:25
  Speaker 3: know it doesn't look like it right now. He's got
• 39:27
  Speaker 3: high strikeout numbers recently. I'm not going to say he's
• 39:29
  Speaker 3: going to pitch bad here. He has a low hit rate,
• 39:33
  Speaker 3: low walk rate, high strikeout rate. Yeah, we get all that.
• 39:36
  Speaker 3: Four strikeout walk, no, five strikeout walk ratio. Excuse me. Yeah,
• 39:40
  Speaker 3: that's good. 11 strikeout per nine. That's obviously good. Numbers
• 39:44
  Speaker 3: against Colorado. I believe they haven't seen him before.
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 39:47
  Speaker 3: So he has an unfamiliarity edge against Colorado as well.
• 39:52
  Speaker 3: The Yankees should win this game, but the matchup is very,
• 39:56
  Speaker 3: very lopsided in favor of the Yankees, yeah. But they're
• 39:59
  Speaker 3: laying minus 350-something here, which went up from minus 300.
• 40:03
  Speaker 3: I mean, this is a ridiculous price. You cannot play
• 40:06
  Speaker 3: a minus 350 favorite in baseball. So, yeah, I get it.
• 40:10
  Speaker 3: You're going to parlay it and get the price down.
• 40:14
  Speaker 3: Do I think the Yankees are going to lose? Probably not.
• 40:16
  Speaker 3: Do they have the matchup edge here? Yeah, but... Are
• 40:20
  Speaker 3: they in a good spot? No, absolutely they are not.
• 40:22
  Speaker 3: 93% of the tickets, excuse me, 88% of the tickets
• 40:26
  Speaker 3: now and 88% of the cash on the Yankees. They're
• 40:29
  Speaker 3: a horrendously public side. They're in a terrible spot. Yeah,
• 40:33
  Speaker 3: I mean, I don't want to do it. The situation
• 40:38
  Speaker 3: is really bad for it. I mean, the over is
• 40:42
  Speaker 3: getting money here. There might be an argument for the
• 40:44
  Speaker 3: over because Hughes sucks. He's terrible on the road. Both
• 40:47
  Speaker 3: pitchers are in the worst of their home road splits.
• 40:50
  Speaker 3: if you're worried about Schlittler starting to walk too many guys,
• 40:54
  Speaker 3: and he's facing a stronger offense this time, and he
• 40:59
  Speaker 3: might start tiring out here, man, so I think there
• 41:01
  Speaker 3: might be more indicators towards an over here than anything else,
• 41:04
  Speaker 3: but I don't really want to do it, and you
• 41:06
  Speaker 3: know me, I don't like offenses in a return home
• 41:08
  Speaker 3: spot either, because I think that they can cool off,
• 41:11
  Speaker 3: and both offenses had yesterday off, so that would worry
• 41:14
  Speaker 3: me as well about the over, because I think the
• 41:16
  Speaker 3: offenses can cool off a little bit, and the bullpens
• 41:18
  Speaker 3: are rested, although Colorado's is terrible, so whatever, I just,
• 41:23
  Speaker 3: I think this game is just totally unplayable, to be honest, like,
• 41:27
  Speaker 3: I don't think there's any good approach to playing that game, like,
• 41:29
  Speaker 3: that's a game that you just, yeah, like, it's a
• 41:33
  Speaker 3: complete pass, like, It's like when you play poker and
• 41:37
  Speaker 3: you get dealt... This is the Deuce 7 offsuit starting
• 41:42
  Speaker 3: hand of all the games today. It's like, yeah, no.
• 41:44
  Speaker 3: I'm going to fold that immediately without even thinking about it.
• 41:49
  Speaker 3: You know what I mean? Tampa Bay and Atlanta, though,
• 41:52
  Speaker 3: this is not a game that I'm folding. And yes,
• 42:01
  Speaker 3: I did used to play poker, but we're going to
• 42:03
  Speaker 3: take Tampa Bay on the money line, even though I
• 42:05
  Speaker 3: know it's a full game play. Atlanta does have a
• 42:08
  Speaker 3: better bullpen. I'm focusing, like I'm factoring in everything here.
• 42:13
  Speaker 3: This is a situational play and a pitching matchup play here.
• 42:17
  Speaker 3: I like Tampa Bay in this one. I think Atlanta
• 42:18
  Speaker 3: has numerous things that are not good for them here.
• 42:22
  Speaker 3: One being that they do not have a rest advantage
• 42:24
  Speaker 3: here because they played yesterday and Number two, they're returning
• 42:28
  Speaker 3: home from a road trip, even though they did stay
• 42:30
  Speaker 3: on the East Coast. You know, I'm going to say
• 42:33
  Speaker 3: it again. A team returning home from a road trip.
• 42:35
  Speaker 3: They've been away for a week. They've got to get
• 42:37
  Speaker 3: back to home life. It could be a distraction. They're
• 42:39
  Speaker 3: playing a team that's not in their league. And I
• 42:42
  Speaker 3: don't mean the Rays are out of their league, except literally.
• 42:44
  Speaker 3: They're just in the American League. So this game doesn't
• 42:47
  Speaker 3: mean as much to Atlanta as these games they just played.
• 42:50
  Speaker 3: They just had a huge series against Philly where Atlanta,
• 42:53
  Speaker 3: They basically did what they needed to do. I mean,
• 42:55
  Speaker 3: they held serve against Philly, and they went 2-2, so
• 42:58
  Speaker 3: they maintained their lead over Philly here, four games. So, yeah,
• 43:03
  Speaker 3: after two huge divisional, or at least two divisional series
• 43:07
  Speaker 3: on the road here, coming back home, I don't like
• 43:09
  Speaker 3: the spot for them at all. The Rays had yesterday off. Now,
• 43:13
  Speaker 3: I know the Rays are better at home, and I
• 43:14
  Speaker 3: know the Braves are better at home, but the Rays
• 43:16
  Speaker 3: still are an above 500 team on the road. The
• 43:19
  Speaker 3: Rays lost to the Rangers last time out, and they
• 43:22
  Speaker 3: didn't play yesterday. So I think the Rays could be
• 43:25
  Speaker 3: in a bounce-back spot here. And they're in the middle
• 43:27
  Speaker 3: of a road trip, and they're just coming in from
• 43:29
  Speaker 3: the Dallas, Texas area, from Arlington, Texas, going to Atlanta
• 43:33
  Speaker 3: with one day off. That seems like an easy journey
• 43:36
  Speaker 3: to me here. So situation definitely favors Tampa here. I
• 43:41
  Speaker 3: know Atlanta only used one guy out of the bullpen yesterday,
• 43:43
  Speaker 3: and their bullpen is better than Tampa's. They used just Fuentes,
• 43:48
  Speaker 3: I think. Atlanta's the number three bullpen, which I think
• 43:51
  Speaker 3: they're either number three or number four. Tampa's number four
• 43:54
  Speaker 3: in whip, even though I keep saying their ERA is
• 43:56
  Speaker 3: not that good, but I'm fine with going full game
• 43:59
  Speaker 3: on this. I don't think there's a huge edge one
• 44:01
  Speaker 3: way or the other in the bullpens, and I'm focusing
• 44:03
  Speaker 3: on the spot, and we get Tampa Bay as an
• 44:05
  Speaker 3: underdog here. Although, if you wanted to go Tampa first five,
• 44:08
  Speaker 3: you definitely could do that as well, but Tampa's got
• 44:11
  Speaker 3: the more rested bullpens. They can use whoever they want
• 44:14
  Speaker 3: out of their bullpen, so I'm going to go with that,
• 44:16
  Speaker 3: and plus, I'm also backing Freddy Peralta who I know
• 44:19
  Speaker 3: has had a bad season. 4.96 ERA, 1.37 whip. Things
• 44:24
  Speaker 3: did not go well for him with the Mets, but
• 44:26
  Speaker 3: you look at his career with Milwaukee, he was a
• 44:28
  Speaker 3: really good pitcher. So it's kind of hard to explain
• 44:32
  Speaker 3: why he was so bad this year for the Mets
• 44:34
  Speaker 3: because he's not old. He's 30. He wasn't coming back
• 44:37
  Speaker 3: from an injury or anything like that. So the only
• 44:40
  Speaker 3: thing I could think of is that he was unmotivated
• 44:42
  Speaker 3: pitching for the Mets. So I was like, okay, being
• 44:44
  Speaker 3: with Tampa, he's going to pitch better. Well, that didn't
• 44:46
  Speaker 3: happen right away, but He started showing some signs after
• 44:49
  Speaker 3: he had one really bad start in Coors Field. He
• 44:51
  Speaker 3: pitched a lot better in the A's Stadium, which is
• 44:54
  Speaker 3: another really hitter-friendly park. So with Tampa Bay, he immediately
• 44:58
  Speaker 3: had to pitch in the two least pitcher-friendly parks of baseball.
• 45:02
  Speaker 3: Then he kind of struggled at home against Baltimore, but
• 45:04
  Speaker 3: he picked it up again. Well, he did give up
• 45:06
  Speaker 3: five runs the next time against Baltimore, but he actually
• 45:08
  Speaker 3: did not pitch badly in that game. He went seven
• 45:11
  Speaker 3: innings and had really good command numbers in that one.
• 45:13
  Speaker 3: And since then, he's gone 12 innings over his last
• 45:16
  Speaker 3: two starts, allowing one run with 11 strikeouts and no
• 45:19
  Speaker 3: walks and only five hits allowed against Detroit and the Mets.
• 45:22
  Speaker 3: So I know weak offense is weaker than Atlanta, but still,
• 45:26
  Speaker 3: Peralta is all of a sudden pitching a lot better.
• 45:28
  Speaker 3: I know his road ERA is miserable, 6.19. Not exactly
• 45:31
  Speaker 3: a great sign here, but... I'm still going to do this.
• 45:36
  Speaker 3: He pitched well, believe it or not, during his horrible
• 45:40
  Speaker 3: tenure with the Mets here. One of his better starts
• 45:42
  Speaker 3: of the season was against Atlanta, although it was a
• 45:45
  Speaker 3: home start. And then he pitched a little bit worse
• 45:47
  Speaker 3: against Atlanta the other time he faced them. But he
• 45:49
  Speaker 3: only allowed two runs against them in a combined nine
• 45:53
  Speaker 3: and two-thirds innings, I think is what that is. So
• 45:55
  Speaker 3: he didn't pitch poorly against Atlanta. And we can see
• 45:57
  Speaker 3: that in the numbers here, even though Atlanta is familiar
• 46:00
  Speaker 3: with them. 140 at-bats career-wise. They only have a 221
• 46:04
  Speaker 3: average against them. And 642 OPS, 40 strikeouts, 11 walks.
• 46:08
  Speaker 3: So he has good numbers historically and a big sample
• 46:11
  Speaker 3: against Atlanta. So I think he can pitch well here
• 46:14
  Speaker 3: against them. Now that it looks like he's in good form,
• 46:17
  Speaker 3: he's got a good matchup here. And Atlanta's going with A.J. Smith-Shawver.
• 46:22
  Speaker 3: I mean, this guy's been pretty bad, man. 7.13 ERA, 1.75 whip.
• 46:27
  Speaker 3: These numbers are horrific. Even though he is actually better
• 46:30
  Speaker 3: at home, 5.4 home ERA. His home ERA is actually
• 46:33
  Speaker 3: better than Peralta's road ERA, but I just don't give
• 46:36
  Speaker 3: a shit. Like, he's in the worst form here. I mean,
• 46:38
  Speaker 3: his walk number has been horrible. He's only made four
• 46:41
  Speaker 3: starts this year, I know, but he's not pitching well
• 46:44
  Speaker 3: right now. The last time out, he didn't pitch well.
• 46:47
  Speaker 3: at washington he's got a high hit rate way too
• 46:49
  Speaker 3: high of a walk rate his strikeout rate is okay
• 46:52
  Speaker 3: but i don't know man i mean this guy he
• 46:54
  Speaker 3: looked like he was going to be good way back
• 46:56
  Speaker 3: in 2023 he got injured and hasn't really panned out
• 47:00
  Speaker 3: for him and right now yeah he's not pitching well
• 47:02
  Speaker 3: what what else do i have to say he has
• 47:04
  Speaker 3: a 1.4 strikeout walk ratio this year that's not good 7.6
• 47:07
  Speaker 3: strikeout per nine none of that is that good His
• 47:12
  Speaker 3: numbers against Tampa Bay are going to be very limited,
• 47:15
  Speaker 3: I think. Yeah. I saw this earlier, but I forget.
• 47:18
  Speaker 3: They have four hitters who have faced him, and they
• 47:20
  Speaker 3: have hit him well in 10 at-bats. They have a.
• 47:23
  Speaker 3: 500 average against him at 1483 OPS. I know it's
• 47:26
  Speaker 3: a really small sample, but the current Tampa Bay lineup
• 47:29
  Speaker 3: has definitely been able to hit him. Three strikeouts, two
• 47:32
  Speaker 3: walks here. So, yeah, I'm going to back Tampa Bay.
• 47:35
  Speaker 3: I think they have the better pitcher on the mound.
• 47:37
  Speaker 3: I think they have the situational edge. I say we
• 47:40
  Speaker 3: do it here. If you want to go first five,
• 47:42
  Speaker 3: you can do it that way, too. But when it's
• 47:43
  Speaker 3: a situation, sometimes I will just go full game if
• 47:46
  Speaker 3: the bullpens, I think, are close. And that is what
• 47:49
  Speaker 3: I'm doing here. And, yes, I do realize Peralta has
• 47:51
  Speaker 3: a 2.6 strikeout walk ratio this year, but it's 4.5
• 47:53
  Speaker 3: with Tampa. as opposed to 2.4 with the Mets. So
• 48:02
  Speaker 3: he's obviously been better with Tampa overall. And it shows
• 48:06
  Speaker 3: in his strikeout per nine as well. Or no, it
• 48:08
  Speaker 3: doesn't actually, my mistake. His strikeout per nine actually went down,
• 48:11
  Speaker 3: but it's in the eights overall, but whatever. Yeah, I'm
• 48:15
  Speaker 3: doing it. Tampa Bay is the play here. The public,
• 48:19
  Speaker 3: I believe, is on Atlanta. because they have the better record.
• 48:22
  Speaker 3: Let me see. Or do they have the better record?
• 48:24
  Speaker 3: I don't know, but the public likes Atlanta, man. 73%
• 48:27
  Speaker 3: of tickets on them, only 62% in the cash. So yeah,
• 48:29
  Speaker 3: we're fading the public with this play. It does look
• 48:32
  Speaker 3: pretty easy to play Atlanta, if you want to call
• 48:34
  Speaker 3: it that, at about a pick-em price here. Tampa's my
• 48:38
  Speaker 3: play in this one. The money is also backing the
• 48:40
  Speaker 3: over 8.5 for whatever that's worth there. I could see it.
• 48:43
  Speaker 3: I mean, both pitchers have had bad seasons, so the
• 48:46
  Speaker 3: over probably does also make some sense here, but Tampa
• 48:49
  Speaker 3: is my play there. Yeah, I told you why. Yeah.
• 48:56
  Speaker 3: Does my analysis make sense on that game? Yeah, well,
• 48:59
  Speaker 3: don't worry because every one of my plays is losing,
• 49:01
  Speaker 3: even if I think they're good. And then this next
• 49:04
  Speaker 3: game is also a play for me. And then everybody
• 49:07
  Speaker 3: can just leave because I don't have any. Well, you guys,
• 49:09
  Speaker 3: why would you even listen to my plays? You know
• 49:11
  Speaker 3: they're going to lose anyway. I'm going to take Arizona
• 49:15
  Speaker 3: in the first five here. I don't really trust their bullpen.
• 49:18
  Speaker 3: I kind of trust Tampa's, but not. Arizona's, so I'm
• 49:21
  Speaker 3: only taking this first five here, even though I know
• 49:23
  Speaker 3: Kansas City, yeah, their bullpen is terrible. I get it.
• 49:26
  Speaker 3: I consider going full game on this, and you can
• 49:29
  Speaker 3: get it about minus 115 on the full game. I'm
• 49:32
  Speaker 3: going first five here, man, with Arizona, and Maybe it's
• 49:36
  Speaker 3: a little risky. Arizona used a ton of relief pitchers
• 49:39
  Speaker 3: yesterday because they played an extra inning game here, so
• 49:42
  Speaker 3: I just don't want to deal with it. I believe
• 49:44
  Speaker 3: they used some of their best relievers as well. It
• 49:46
  Speaker 3: was a bullpen game for them as well that Law started,
• 49:49
  Speaker 3: plus it went extra innings, so I don't want to
• 49:51
  Speaker 3: deal with this. They used six relief pitchers. I'm just
• 49:54
  Speaker 3: going to avoid the bullpens here. Kansas City only used three, although, yes,
• 49:58
  Speaker 3: Kansas City's bullpen is very bad. They're ranked last in WIP.
• 50:02
  Speaker 3: They're still better than the A's, but I think they're
• 50:05
  Speaker 3: second worst in bullpen. Arizona is the worst offense here, 23rd.
• 50:11
  Speaker 3: Kansas City is 15th. Oh, yeah, Arizona's bullpen is number five,
• 50:15
  Speaker 3: but their ERA is above four, given the lack of
• 50:17
  Speaker 3: rest here. I'm just not going to deal with their bullpen.
• 50:20
  Speaker 3: But what I am going to do is back a
• 50:22
  Speaker 3: guy whose name we haven't heard in a while, another C.
• 50:26
  Speaker 3: Burns here, but it's not Chase. C. Montgomery Burns. It's
• 50:30
  Speaker 3: not Chase Burns this time or C. Montgomery Burns. We're
• 50:34
  Speaker 3: not going to be taking nerve tonic here in this
• 50:38
  Speaker 3: one and trying to win a softball game. If people
• 50:41
  Speaker 3: get what I'm referring to, my old Simpsons references. Corbin
• 50:45
  Speaker 3: Burns is finally back, man. I think we've forgotten about him.
• 50:49
  Speaker 3: He hasn't pitched at all this year. He's been injured
• 50:51
  Speaker 3: for quite a while. He pitched a little bit with
• 50:55
  Speaker 3: Arizona last year, got injured, and hasn't come back. And
• 50:58
  Speaker 3: he was pitching really well. He's had a really good career.
• 51:01
  Speaker 3: In case you guys forget, Burns, most of his career
• 51:04
  Speaker 3: with Milwaukee, he's been one of the best pitchers in
• 51:07
  Speaker 3: baseball throughout his career. And I like backing guys like
• 51:11
  Speaker 3: this because it's like people have forgotten about him. He's
• 51:13
  Speaker 3: never been even remotely bad like throughout his career, except
• 51:16
  Speaker 3: I guess, well, he was a relief pitcher. Well, yeah, 2019,
• 51:20
  Speaker 3: I guess he had a bad season as a relief pitcher.
• 51:22
  Speaker 3: I don't know what the fuck that was. But as
• 51:24
  Speaker 3: a starter, he's been excellent. He had one season with
• 51:27
  Speaker 3: Baltimore and then he went to Arizona. He was really
• 51:30
  Speaker 3: good up until the time that he got hurt. We're
• 51:33
  Speaker 3: going to back him here, man. He's coming back from injury.
• 51:36
  Speaker 3: He's going to be ready to go. A lot of
• 51:39
  Speaker 3: professionals don't like this, like, oh, you have to wait
• 51:41
  Speaker 3: and see. What if he's shaky because he hasn't pitched
• 51:43
  Speaker 3: in a while? I don't give a shit because he's
• 51:45
  Speaker 3: a veteran. I like backing veteran pitchers coming back from injury.
• 51:49
  Speaker 3: He's not that old. He's 31, and he was an
• 51:52
  Speaker 3: elite pitcher. Throughout his career. So I'm okay with backing
• 51:56
  Speaker 3: this guy here. They're only going to put him out
• 51:57
  Speaker 3: there if he's ready man. And it's going to be
• 52:00
  Speaker 3: really interesting. Dude Arizona is trying to make this final
• 52:02
  Speaker 3: playoff push here. So they're also the more motivated team here.
• 52:05
  Speaker 3: Because they're trying to make a wild card spot. Kansas
• 52:08
  Speaker 3: City has no reason to really show up here. which doesn't,
• 52:12
  Speaker 3: I mean, Kansas City can play loose because they got
• 52:13
  Speaker 3: nothing to play for, and yeah, it means the pressure's
• 52:15
  Speaker 3: on Arizona, but think about this, man. If Arizona makes
• 52:18
  Speaker 3: the playoffs and Burns is in their rotation, all of
• 52:21
  Speaker 3: a sudden, Arizona starts looking a lot more for middle ball.
• 52:24
  Speaker 3: I mean, that's pretty crazy. Like, he's their best pitcher,
• 52:27
  Speaker 3: and now he's coming back. Their starting pitching has been
• 52:30
  Speaker 3: kind of ass, and with this guy back, it's going
• 52:32
  Speaker 3: to be interesting. He pitched in the minors. He only
• 52:36
  Speaker 3: pitched two innings. That was his rehab. I looked at it.
• 52:39
  Speaker 3: I think he made two appearances in the minors, one
• 52:42
  Speaker 3: inning each, and he didn't allow anything. I think he
• 52:45
  Speaker 3: allowed no hits, no walks, didn't have any strikeouts either,
• 52:48
  Speaker 3: and just didn't put anybody on base, didn't allow any runs.
• 52:51
  Speaker 3: So I'm like, whatever. He's probably ready to go. Burns
• 52:56
  Speaker 3: does have good matchup numbers here against, let me see here.
• 53:01
  Speaker 3: against the Royals. He's held them to a 2.11 average, 5.21
• 53:05
  Speaker 3: OPS overall, 71 at bat, so he's got a decent
• 53:08
  Speaker 3: sample against these guys. 16-4 strikeout walk ratio, so Burns
• 53:12
  Speaker 3: can definitely pitch well against them, even though I know
• 53:15
  Speaker 3: this is the new Kauffman Stadium with the walls moved in,
• 53:18
  Speaker 3: and Michael Wacca is pitching on the other side. I
• 53:21
  Speaker 3: wish it wasn't Kansas City's best pitcher on the mound,
• 53:23
  Speaker 3: but I think because it is, we're getting a little
• 53:25
  Speaker 3: bit more value on this number. Walker's been good, there's
• 53:28
  Speaker 3: no doubt about it, and I like backing him because
• 53:30
  Speaker 3: nobody wants to back him because he's not a high
• 53:33
  Speaker 3: strikeout pitcher and he just goes under the radar, but
• 53:35
  Speaker 3: he's been solid for his whole career. 3.36 ERA, 1.1 whip.
• 53:37
  Speaker 3: Walker's been good at home, even with the new.
• 53:43
  Speaker 3: Hitter-friendly walls being moved in here. He's got a 3.14
• 53:45
  Speaker 3: home ERA. Yeah, he's been really good at home. He
• 53:49
  Speaker 3: is in pretty good form right now, too. He's been
• 53:51
  Speaker 3: pitching pretty well. His last three outings have been good.
• 53:53
  Speaker 3: His team's won his last four outings. All of this
• 53:57
  Speaker 3: is good, no doubt about it. Pretty low hit rate.
• 53:59
  Speaker 3: Doesn't really walk guys. Doesn't strike guys out either, though.
• 54:03
  Speaker 3: Strikeout walk ratio is still 3-3, though, because he just
• 54:07
  Speaker 3: doesn't walk anybody, even though his name is Waka. I
• 54:10
  Speaker 3: have to make that joke every time. 7.3 strikeout per nine. Yeah,
• 54:13
  Speaker 3: so that all looks good. So why am I fading
• 54:15
  Speaker 3: him here? Well, because I think Burns is the better pitcher.
• 54:18
  Speaker 3: I think there's more motivation on the Arizona side. And
• 54:20
  Speaker 3: Waka has really bad matchup numbers here against Arizona. Arenado
• 54:26
  Speaker 3: absolutely destroys him. 11 for 22 with four home runs
• 54:30
  Speaker 3: and three walks. That's a player prop for you. Newt
• 54:34
  Speaker 3: Byron Perdomo also do well against them. He's got 76
• 54:36
  Speaker 3: at-bats against them. 329 average allowed, 976 OPS, 14 to
• 54:42
  Speaker 3: 5 strikeout walk ratio. So Waka does not pitch well here.
• 54:45
  Speaker 3: So I think we're getting the better pitcher on the mound.
• 54:48
  Speaker 3: I think he's a pitcher that people have forgotten about,
• 54:50
  Speaker 3: and he's absolutely elite. It's the better team, the team
• 54:54
  Speaker 3: with more motivation. And yes, I know Arizona did win yesterday,
• 54:58
  Speaker 3: by the way. I forgot to mention that. Arizona won
• 55:00
  Speaker 3: that extra inning game yesterday. But Maybe Kansas City's just
• 55:04
  Speaker 3: kind of, you know, like, I don't know, after almost
• 55:08
  Speaker 3: beating Arizona yesterday, Kansas City kind of going all out
• 55:11
  Speaker 3: to try to win that game. Maybe Kansas City's the
• 55:13
  Speaker 3: team that has kind of the hangover effect here after that,
• 55:16
  Speaker 3: and maybe it's not Arizona that does. Maybe Arizona is
• 55:19
  Speaker 3: a little bit shocked. Like, we should beat Kansas City
• 55:21
  Speaker 3: more easily than that, and they get back into focus
• 55:25
  Speaker 3: after that, you know what I mean? So I'm going
• 55:26
  Speaker 3: to do this, and mostly it's about the matchup, though.
• 55:30
  Speaker 3: Let me see here. And the money looks like it
• 55:34
  Speaker 3: doesn't agree with me on this. It looks like it
• 55:35
  Speaker 3: was agreeing with me earlier in the day. So yeah,
• 55:38
  Speaker 3: that worries me a little bit. 58% of tickets are
• 55:40
  Speaker 3: on Arizona. 52% of the cash on Kansas City. Arizona's
• 55:45
  Speaker 3: up to about minus 120 here. I don't like that, man,
• 55:47
  Speaker 3: because Arizona had most of the money when I looked earlier.
• 55:51
  Speaker 3: The money's also heavily backed in the over nine in
• 55:53
  Speaker 3: this game. I don't see that. I mean, this looks
• 55:56
  Speaker 3: like an under type of game to me. Well, I
• 56:00
  Speaker 3: would say first five under, but the full game actually
• 56:03
  Speaker 3: could go over because you know what I say, after
• 56:05
  Speaker 3: an extra inning game, you got bullpens that are questionable.
• 56:08
  Speaker 3: The bullpens are used. So yeah, full game over. Does
• 56:12
  Speaker 3: probably make some sense because the bullpens could just totally
• 56:14
  Speaker 3: implode here, which is why I'm going first five here
• 56:18
  Speaker 3: because I don't know which bullpen is going to be
• 56:20
  Speaker 3: worse in this game. But first five under makes sense
• 56:23
  Speaker 3: to me in this game as well. Not full game, though. But, yes,
• 56:27
  Speaker 3: Arizona first five is my play in that one. You're
• 56:31
  Speaker 3: going to do that?
• 56:32
  Speaker 2: Oh, okay.
• 56:32
  Speaker 1: Okay.
• 56:33
  Speaker 3: Yeah, well, he only made seven starts for Arizona before
• 56:35
  Speaker 3: he got hurt last year. That was Arizona's huge off-season
• 56:39
  Speaker 3: move prior to last season, and then he got injured,
• 56:42
  Speaker 3: and that was basically the end of that. But I
• 56:44
  Speaker 3: forgot about him, and he is back. Yeah. I mean,
• 56:49
  Speaker 3: he never leaves my mind completely, man. It's the man
• 56:53
  Speaker 3: crush thing. I've thought about him a few times this year,
• 56:55
  Speaker 3: and I'm like, is he coming back this year? When
• 56:58
  Speaker 3: is he coming back? All right. Let me see here.
• 57:02
  Speaker 3: I'm going to take a break at some point, but
• 57:04
  Speaker 3: I'll do Chicago-Milwaukee. This is a big game. Milwaukee was
• 57:08
  Speaker 3: able to get the win yesterday, 4-3. The Cubs, they're
• 57:12
  Speaker 3: not going to catch Milwaukee in the NL Central. This
• 57:15
  Speaker 3: is still a big divisional matchup. Both teams are going
• 57:17
  Speaker 3: to show up for these games, although the Cubs might
• 57:19
  Speaker 3: have a little bit more motivation here just because they're
• 57:21
  Speaker 3: behind and they need to keep winning to at least
• 57:23
  Speaker 3: maintain a wildcard spot. I don't think that's really that
• 57:26
  Speaker 3: much of a concern. I think the Cubs are way
• 57:28
  Speaker 3: ahead in the wildcard race anyway. um, at least above
• 57:31
  Speaker 3: whoever's in third, which I believe is Arizona right now. Um,
• 57:35
  Speaker 3: actually it might be Sandy, no San Diego and Arizona
• 57:38
  Speaker 3: both won yesterday. So I think Arizona is still ahead
• 57:40
  Speaker 3: of San Diego. Barely. That's a battle, man. Arizona versus
• 57:44
  Speaker 3: San Diego. It's crazy. Um, both teams need to keep winning.
• 57:48
  Speaker 3: All right. Um, but yes, this game, it's going to
• 57:52
  Speaker 3: be tough for Chicago to win this one, man. Um,
• 57:55
  Speaker 3: It's the same matchup that we had a few days ago.
• 57:57
  Speaker 3: And if you remember, it's Peterson against Miz. And you remember,
• 58:00
  Speaker 3: I liked the under the last time this pitching matchup
• 58:04
  Speaker 3: came up. It was in Wrigley. It was one of
• 58:05
  Speaker 3: those Wrigley games where the wind was blowing out and
• 58:08
  Speaker 3: some weird shit happened. And the game went way over.
• 58:11
  Speaker 3: But these guys both still have good matchup numbers against
• 58:15
  Speaker 3: these opposing offenses. And this is not a Wrigley game
• 58:18
  Speaker 3: this time. So I do think the under... is probably
• 58:21
  Speaker 3: the way to play this game, especially after last game.
• 58:24
  Speaker 3: Both pitchers did bad. Now, what I will say is
• 58:27
  Speaker 3: a lot of times when a pitcher just faced an offense,
• 58:29
  Speaker 3: that offense has the upper hand the next time because
• 58:32
  Speaker 3: they're recently familiar with that pitcher and they'll do well.
• 58:35
  Speaker 3: But in a case like this, I don't think so
• 58:37
  Speaker 3: because both offenses are already familiar with these pitchers. So
• 58:40
  Speaker 3: I think what's more likely to happen is these pitchers
• 58:43
  Speaker 3: are actually going to make the adjustments and do better
• 58:45
  Speaker 3: this time. That would be my thought, although I still
• 58:47
  Speaker 3: don't like David Peterson, though. Miz is obviously completely elite,
• 58:51
  Speaker 3: but Peterson, yeah, he's pretty questionable generally. Chicago used two
• 58:57
  Speaker 3: relief pitchers yesterday. Milwaukee used four. So Milwaukee used a
• 59:01
  Speaker 3: few more relievers, but they do have the better overall
• 59:03
  Speaker 3: bullpen here. Milwaukee's number eight in whip, but they're a
• 59:09
  Speaker 3: top five bullpen. for sure. The Cubs are not. The
• 59:12
  Speaker 3: Cubs are okay. They're number 15. Both offenses very good.
• 59:17
  Speaker 3: Cubs number one, Milwaukee number five. The Cubs, David Peterson
• 59:22
  Speaker 3: pitching for them, like I said, I don't think he's
• 59:24
  Speaker 3: very good. 5.39 ERA, 1.56 whip. He is better on
• 59:29
  Speaker 3: the road, though, so that's another thing. As far as
• 59:32
  Speaker 3: that under that happened at home, or that did not
• 59:34
  Speaker 3: happen at home, even though I leaned that way, and
• 59:37
  Speaker 3: luckily I did not put it on my card, but
• 59:38
  Speaker 3: Peterson's been really bad at home this year. Some of
• 59:41
  Speaker 3: that was with the Mets, though, remember. But on the road,
• 59:44
  Speaker 3: he's been better at least. 4.26 road ERA is at
• 59:47
  Speaker 3: least tolerable. He had that bad start last time at
• 59:50
  Speaker 3: home against Milwaukee. But he was pitching pretty well prior
• 59:53
  Speaker 3: to that. He is better on the road. He does
• 59:56
  Speaker 3: have way too high of a hit rate, way too
• 59:57
  Speaker 3: high of a walk rate, and his strikeout rate's not
• 59:59
  Speaker 3: that good. So none of that is good. I don't
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 3: like Peterson. I mean, nothing personal, but maybe it is. No,
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 3: I don't know. I just don't think he's that good.
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 3: He spent his whole career with the Mets, actually, up
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 3: until Chicago got him at the trade deadline here or whatever. 1.9
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 3: strikeout per nine with the Cubs. Strikeout walk ratio, I mean,
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 3: with the Cubs. That's not good. A two overall. Yeah,
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 3: not very good. Eight strikeout per nine this year is
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 3: mediocre at best. His numbers against Milwaukee, though, this is
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 3: why I was saying this could be an under. Like
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 3: I said last time, he is actually good against Milwaukee
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 3: in a big sample. 81 at-bats. Milwaukee has not done
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 3: a whole lot against him. Um, two 47 average allowed
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 3: six 95 OPS 18 to 11 strikeout walk ratio. Uh,
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 3: so those numbers, you know, um, they're not bad, not bad. Um,
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 3: I thought I was going to say something else. Um, no,
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 3: I forget. I don't remember. Uh, I don't know. Cause
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 3: Charles said that, I think it was in that last game.
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 3: Charles had like a, or no, I don't think it
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 3: was that game. I think it was a different game
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 3: between Milwaukee and the Cubs. I was, cause I was
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 3: going to say he had like, um, a player prop
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 3: on PCA. And I'm like, dude, PCA, whichever pitcher PCA
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 3: was up against, he only had one at bat against
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 3: him and it was a walk. So I'm like, that's
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 3: not a player prop that I would have dealt with
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 3: because you don't have any history there. So you don't
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 3: know what he's going to do. PCA, you know, he's
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 3: an MVP front runner. So you know, he's going to
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 3: be overvalued in the prop market typically. So that's not
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 3: what I would have done. Whatever that game was, I
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 3: would have taken William Contreras because whatever it was, he
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 3: had really good numbers against the opposing pitcher and And
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 3: I was right, by the way. That would have been
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 3: my prop in that game if I was going to
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 3: play it. William Contreras had like a home run in
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 3: the game and two hits. So, yeah, I was right
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 3: about it. All right. Anyway, Peterson might do okay here.
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 3: And obviously, I'm going to bank on– I would bank
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 3: on Miz to bounce back here. 1.97 ERA,. 79 whip.
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 3: He's had a good season, obviously, and he's been better
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 3: at home as well. 1.62 home ERA. Didn't do well
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 3: last time out against the Cubs. It was the only
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 3: time to give up more than three runs in a
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 3: start all season. And it was against a team that
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 3: he actually has done pretty well against typically. So I
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 3: don't know, man. It might have been the Wrigley effect
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 3: a little bit. He was a little bit wild. Obviously,
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 3: he just didn't have his best start there. I expect
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 3: him to bounce back, even though you do have to
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 3: worry about his innings a little bit here. Up over 150.
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 3: So he's thrown more innings than he ever has before.
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 3: But he's got a really low hit rate. His walk
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 3: rate's still not bad. His strikeout rate's really high. All
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 3: these numbers are good. 5.8 strikeout walk ratio, yeah, that's good. 13.2
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 3: strikeout per nine, yeah, good. And his numbers against the
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 3: Cubs are actually dominant. This includes that last start that
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 3: he had against them too. 100 at bats, 170 average against,
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 3: 549 OPS, 36 to 12 strikeout walk ratio. So really
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 3: the only questionable number in there is the walk rate.
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 3: He's been good, but you can't play Milwaukee here, in
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 3: my opinion. The Cubs should at least be extra motivated here,
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 3: and you know you have to pay a price for Mizorowski.
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 3: You're paying minus 220 for this. I mean, he's the
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 3: better pitcher. Milwaukee does have the better pitching throughout this game,
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 3: so I'm not going to say Milwaukee's going to lose
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 3: this game, but at this price, no thank you. 83%
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 3: of tickets, 95% of the cash on Milwaukee, though, but
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 3: I think the under is the way to play this game.
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 3: Both pitchers have good matchup numbers, and they're both in
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 3: the better home road split here. Total 7.5, 74% of
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 3: tickets on the over, 74% of the cash on the under.
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 3: So the money is heavily indicating on the under in
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 3: that game. I just can't do it with Peterson, man.
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 3: But I like this one better than I like the
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 3: one in Chicago, and that one almost made my card.
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 3: So I don't know, man. It's just something I'm like,
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 3: I'm going to bet on Peterson. No, don't do it.
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 3: Don't do it. I don't know, man. Yeah, I still
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 3: think the under is the right approach in that game, though.
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 1: All right.
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 3: I'm going to take a break now because I've gone
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 3: past the hour mark, I guess, and then I'll talk
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 3: about six more games here, and that'll be it for
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 3: the Tuesday show. I'll be right back. Yep, inside, I
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 3: want to kill myself. We are on an 0-7 run
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 3: over the last two days after tonight was just complete bullshit.
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 3: So that's how I'm going to start off this show.
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 3: Horrible Sunday, 1-5, I don't even know what to tell
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 3: you about that. I just don't want to do this anymore.
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 3: I have never seen anything like this, man. With the
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 3: slump continuing, two straight losses, not a good day at all, 0-4,
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 3: that is Have not had a good season, man. Look
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 3: at this slump that I'm on. The slump continues. I've
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 3: reached a new peak, actually. I'm going to burn my
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 3: Bruins hat, man. I don't know what is going on
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 3: with the Bruins. March 8th? Is that what it is?
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 3: I don't even know. It's March 9th, I think. Who
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 3: even knows, man? I don't know what day it is anymore.
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 3: I don't even know what day it is anymore, man.
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 3: Back with you. Perfect. The worst day that I could
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 3: possibly have. Back with you, as I always am. Until
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 3: I die, at least. 0-2 yesterday. And yesterday did not
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 3: go well for me.
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 2: 0-5.
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 3: The worst month that I've ever had in my 18
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 3: years doing this. I don't know what to even tell
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 3: you about this anymore.
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 1: The slump continues.
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 3: Somebody fucking kill me, please. I don't even know what
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 3: I should do at this point other than potentially end
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 3: it all.
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 1: Okay.
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 3: Next game is Pittsburgh and the White Sox. I believe
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 3: these two teams were both off yesterday. White Sox are
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 3: staying at home. They're coming off a big series against
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 3: Minnesota that they won. So could this be a letdown
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 3: for the White Sox? Maybe, although they do kind of
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 3: need to keep winning to maintain pace here. But this
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 3: is an out-of-league game for them against Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh, they're
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 3: just playing off the stretch at this point. I think
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 3: they're coming in from Pittsburgh. They're starting a road trip.
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 3: So starting a road trip usually is a focus spot.
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 3: They're coming off beating Anaheim, which, again, they didn't play
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 3: yesterday either. So both teams are rested here. The White
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 3: Sox have the better bullpen. They're number 13. Their bullpen's
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 3: actually been pretty good recently. Pittsburgh is number 19. They're
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 3: not the worst bullpen, but Chicago's is better. The White
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 3: Sox are 10 offensively. Pittsburgh's 7. Pittsburgh's kind of fallen
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 3: off offensively a little bit here, and they're not really
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 3: as good on the road. bubba chandler is getting the
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 3: start for pittsburgh here he's got talent but he just
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 3: walks way too many guys man he is still young
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 3: so he might wind up being good he did look
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 3: good last year but 4.3 era 1.37 whip he's gotta
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 3: he's gotta stop walking guys his uh home road splits
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 3: are pretty insignificant although his opponent batting average is a
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 3: little bit better on the road although his era is
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 3: a little bit worse he's not going too deep into
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 3: most of his outings here recently he's Ben basically serviceable,
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 3: but his walk number is still too high. He's got
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 3: a low hit rate, so he is hard to hit.
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 3: His strikeout rate isn't really that good, though, and combined
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 3: with his really high walk rate, his strikeout walk ratio
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 3: is really bad, 1.7. Last year, it was 7.8, although
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 3: he only made four starts last year, three relief appearances.
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 3: But yeah, his walk number has gotten out of control
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 3: this year in this bigger sample. Maybe the real Bubba
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 3: is showing himself here. He's got to fix that shit
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 3: because he'd be pretty good otherwise. Although his strikeout per
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 3: nine is kind of mediocre at eight. His numbers against
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 3: the White Sox, I'm assuming they're going to be pretty
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 3: minimal here, which I looked earlier, but I always forget. Yeah,
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 3: the White Sox has never faced him before, so that
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 3: is an advantage to him. Like a young, talented pitcher
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 3: will Typically have a little bit of an advantage against
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 3: a lineup that has never seen him before. So Chandler
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 3: does have that going for him. Sean Burke is getting
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 3: the start for the White Sox. He's had a good season.
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 3: This has been his best season. He's been, I believe
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 3: he's been the best White Sox pitcher. 3.2 ERA, 1.14 whip.
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 3: He's done a little bit worse at home with his ERA, 3.5.
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 3: I don't know why exactly. I guess it's the home
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 3: run ball that's kind of giving him problems at home
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 3: because his opponent batting average is about the same. He
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 3: looked good last time out with a 5-2 third inning
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 3: one-hit shutout against Houston, but he had four walks there.
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 3: His walks have been a huge issue recently, in fact.
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 3: Last 8-2 third innings, he's had 12 walks. You can't
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 3: do that, man, so... Yeah, he's having some issues right now.
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 3: His walk rate's come way up.
• 1:08:59
  Speaker 1: I mean.
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 3: Burke, maybe he's tiring out a little bit because there's
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 3: a lot of innings being thrown here, and he is
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 3: still pretty young, and this is the most innings that
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 3: he's ever thrown in a season. So maybe he's just
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 3: kind of fatiguing at the end of the season, and
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 3: that's leading to some of his wildness here because he's
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 3: had a good season overall. Low hit rate. The walk
• 1:09:16
  Speaker 3: rate's not too bad. Strikeout rate is high. He's got
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 3: a 3.1 strikeout walk ratio, which is not bad. 9.7
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 3: strikeout per nine is pretty good. But his recent form
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 3: is definitely, it is questionable, let's say. Yeah, just way
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 3: too many walks. A couple of these starts, he gave
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 3: up too many runs against some bad offenses in Detroit
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 3: and the Mets. I don't really want to trust Burke
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 3: totally right now. He's going up against a pretty good
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 3: pirate offense here, although they haven't seen him. They're 0-3
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 3: combined off him, just between low and mangum. 0-3 with
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 3: a strikeout and a walk. So he does have the
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 3: unfamiliarity going for him against Pittsburgh. Does that mean this
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 3: could be an under? I mean, I guess it could be.
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 3: I mean, I like unders when teams have had a
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 3: rest because the bullpens... The bullpens are fully rested, so
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 3: you can use whoever you want out of the bullpen.
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 3: The offenses can be a little bit cooled off, so yeah,
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 3: that is probably the way I would lean in this
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 3: game is the under, but it seems risky, man, given
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 3: just the current form and all the walks going on
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 3: here just really, really worries me, but the money is
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 3: coming in on the under. 69% of the tickets on
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 3: the over. 50 something, 56% of the cash on the under.
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 3: So the money is seemingly back in the under. The
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 3: total is eight and a half. The money is strongly
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 3: back in Pittsburgh as well. 78% of the tickets on
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 3: the White Sox in the minus 140 something range. 77%
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 3: of the cash on Pittsburgh. So the money back in Pittsburgh,
• 1:10:48
  Speaker 3: maybe it's because of Burke just having a big time
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 3: fall off here. I don't really know. I don't necessarily disagree.
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 3: I think if you take Pittsburgh, you should do it
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 3: first five, though, because they will not have a bullpen
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 3: edge here. But I think I prefer the under, though.
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 3: It would be full game, actually, because the bullpen's arrested
• 1:11:06
  Speaker 3: and they're not really that bad. All right. Texas and Seattle.
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 3: This game is kind of hard to figure out because
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 3: both teams, last I saw, were undecided in their picture.
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 3: So I don't know what we're getting in this game here, man.
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 3: I believe both teams, or no, did Seattle play yesterday? No,
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 3: they didn't, right? No, I don't think so. Both teams
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 3: were off yesterday. I'm pretty sure. So Seattle finally got
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 3: a win against the A's to avoid getting swept in
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 3: that series. Seattle, they're almost dead here, man. Like, They
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 3: still have a chance if they can somehow sweep Texas here.
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 3: So Seattle's probably going to be the more motivated team here,
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 3: but both teams are going to be. Seattle is staying
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 3: at home. Texas is coming in from, I believe, from home,
• 1:11:50
  Speaker 3: let me say. Yeah, they're starting a road trip with
• 1:11:53
  Speaker 3: a little bit of momentum off of beating Tampa Bay
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 3: in their last game. So Texas, the one thing about
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 3: Texas here, though, is they've got to fly out west,
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 3: and you know I talk about that. A team from
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 3: one of the eastern time zones, in this case Central,
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 3: Going out west, you have to shift multiple time zones over,
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 3: and you have to play a night game, and it
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 3: can mess with your biological clock. So I think that's
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 3: not great for Texas, although usually you're focused when you
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 3: start a road trip. Texas is right in the middle
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 3: of this battle in the AL West here as well,
• 1:12:20
  Speaker 3: so both teams are going to be motivated. This is
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 3: a big series here, but we have no idea who's pitching.
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 3: It was initially going to be Cody Bradford for Texas.
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 3: I don't know if that's still going to be the
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 3: case or not. He's been not great. 4.45 ERA, 1.58 whip.
• 1:12:36
  Speaker 3: His career, he's been pretty good, but he missed all
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 3: of last year with an injury. He didn't have a
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 3: lot of starts in his major league career before that,
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 3: but he was pretty good. So this year, this might
• 1:12:48
  Speaker 3: be a little bit of, it might be misleading what
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 3: we're seeing out of him this year because his career,
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 3: he's been much better than this. And it might just
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 3: be struggles bouncing back from injury. Maybe he'll do better
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 3: at some point, but he's been way too hittable. He
• 1:13:00
  Speaker 3: doesn't walk anybody, but he's thrown pitches right over the plate,
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 3: and the strikeout rate is really, really low. So he's
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 3: got some issues right now. If it is going to
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 3: be him pitching, I don't know. But Texas has also
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 3: lost his last five starts, so that's not a great sign.
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 3: Bradford against Seattle, if it is him, they have 12
• 1:13:20
  Speaker 3: at-bats against him. Five hitters have faced him. He's done
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 3: well against them. A 167 average, 481 OPS allowed, 1-1
• 1:13:27
  Speaker 3: strikeout walk ratio. One extra base hit is a double
• 1:13:31
  Speaker 3: from Josh Naylor, who I think is, like, one of
• 1:13:33
  Speaker 3: the ugliest baseball players in existence, to be honest. He's, like,
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 3: fat with that stupid earring and the beard and, like,
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 3: dyes his hair. I don't know. He looks like an idiot.
• 1:13:43
  Speaker 3: All right. Whatever. What else did I have to say? Dude,
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 3: I don't know if Bradford's even going to pitch. Seattle,
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 3: you'd think it would be Bryce Miller here, and I
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 3: don't know why they haven't really announced that yet because
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 3: Miller would be next up in their rotation. He pitched
• 1:13:58
  Speaker 3: their last game against the Red Sox that they had
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 3: five games ago, so it should be him. And he's
• 1:14:03
  Speaker 3: on regular rest here, and he's not hurt. So I
• 1:14:06
  Speaker 3: don't know why they haven't announced their starter yet unless
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 3: they think somebody's coming back, or I don't know what
• 1:14:09
  Speaker 3: the deal is. If we look at the schedule here,
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 3: we can kind of tell based on if they announce
• 1:14:15
  Speaker 3: anybody for tomorrow. Let me see. Yeah, tomorrow's going to
• 1:14:20
  Speaker 3: be Quantrill against Anderson, so it seems like this should
• 1:14:24
  Speaker 3: be Bradford against Miller here. I'm assuming it is going
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 3: to be Miller. He's got a 4.01 ERA, 1.11 whip.
• 1:14:31
  Speaker 3: Like I said, he last pitched on the second, so
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 3: it would be his turn to pitch here on regular rest.
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 3: He was okay in that start against the Red Sox,
• 1:14:38
  Speaker 3: although he didn't make it five innings. He only needed
• 1:14:40
  Speaker 3: one more out, and I think he would have gotten
• 1:14:42
  Speaker 3: the win in that game, so I don't know what
• 1:14:43
  Speaker 3: happened there, but... they are limiting Miller's uh innings though
• 1:14:47
  Speaker 3: which is kind of interesting he did throw a ton
• 1:14:49
  Speaker 3: of pitches though in the previous two and that was
• 1:14:52
  Speaker 3: he pitched in those games where Seattle got absolutely obliterated
• 1:14:55
  Speaker 3: 22 to nothing in 19 to 2 he was the
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 3: starter in both of those games but he pitched a
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 3: lot better against the Red Sox it's just they limited
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 3: his pitches in that game for some reason now I
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 3: don't know if he's hurt or what the deal is
• 1:15:07
  Speaker 3: here man I really don't um Miller overall has been
• 1:15:10
  Speaker 3: pretty good, though. He's got a low hit rate. His
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 3: walk rate's pretty low. His strikeout rate's pretty good. None
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 3: of those numbers are bad. 3.7 strikeout walk ratio, 8.7
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 3: Ks per nine. All of that is good. So I
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 3: don't know what we're doing here. He's also better at home, 3.14
• 1:15:25
  Speaker 3: home ERA in Seattle's pitcher-friendly ballpark with a really low
• 1:15:30
  Speaker 3: 159 opponent batting average. So he should pitch here. I
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 3: don't know why he wouldn't. Except his numbers against Texas
• 1:15:40
  Speaker 3: are bad, but I don't know if managers necessarily look
• 1:15:43
  Speaker 3: at all that. But Texas does have 56 at-bats against him, a.
• 1:15:47
  Speaker 3: 304 average, 1141 OPS against him, and an 8-10 strikeout
• 1:15:51
  Speaker 3: walk ratio is pretty ugly. This game is really hard
• 1:15:54
  Speaker 3: to figure out not knowing anything. what's going on here
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 3: and who the starter is going to be. The money
• 1:15:59
  Speaker 3: looks like it's kind of... I think it was kind
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 3: of indicating towards Texas. Where is this game? Yeah, 71%
• 1:16:05
  Speaker 3: of tickets on Seattle at around minus 130-something. You can
• 1:16:07
  Speaker 3: bet this game right now still, it looks like. You
• 1:16:10
  Speaker 3: have to bet it action because you don't even know
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 3: who's starting. 77% of the cash on Texas. I probably agree.
• 1:16:18
  Speaker 3: If we think that it is going to be Bryce
• 1:16:20
  Speaker 3: Miller pitching for Seattle, he doesn't have good matchup numbers.
• 1:16:23
  Speaker 3: And maybe Texas... You know, I mean, both teams are
• 1:16:26
  Speaker 3: going to be motivated here. It's a tough call. I mean,
• 1:16:29
  Speaker 3: you could maybe look towards... I don't know. I don't
• 1:16:31
  Speaker 3: really want to say an under. I mean, the total
• 1:16:33
  Speaker 3: is low. Eight, seven and a half here. Money kind
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 3: of bagging the over here. But Miller has bad matchup numbers. So,
• 1:16:39
  Speaker 3: I'm not really thinking about an under in this game.
• 1:16:42
  Speaker 3: Even though I might generally because Miller's not a bad
• 1:16:45
  Speaker 3: pitcher in general. But, yeah, I don't know. It's a
• 1:16:47
  Speaker 3: tough game to figure out. I think leaning with the
• 1:16:50
  Speaker 3: market and slightly leaning towards Texas maybe makes sense. Although...
• 1:16:54
  Speaker 3: Now both teams were rested yesterday, but I did forget
• 1:16:57
  Speaker 3: to show you both bullpens have been bad. Seattle number 20,
• 1:17:00
  Speaker 3: Texas number 21. They both really struggled, so maybe it's
• 1:17:03
  Speaker 3: a first five Texas play here because I don't even
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 3: know which bullpen you'd really want to back here. Neither.
• 1:17:10
  Speaker 3: Seattle's been really bad offensively. They're number 28. They've really
• 1:17:13
  Speaker 3: had issues. Texas is number 16, tied with the Yankees,
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 3: so Texas has been not too bad offensively. Although this
• 1:17:22
  Speaker 3: is a pitcher-friendly park, like I said. What's not a
• 1:17:25
  Speaker 3: pitcher-friendly park is Toronto at the A's. The A's won
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 3: yesterday 6-5. So, yeah, I mean, it was kind of
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 3: a dramatic win for them late in the game. It
• 1:17:37
  Speaker 3: might have been a walk-off. I'm not sure. With McNeil,
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 3: I think, had the winning hit there. I think that's
• 1:17:41
  Speaker 3: what that said. Does Toronto bounce back here?
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 1: I mean, maybe.
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 3: Toronto needs to win, but everybody knows that. So, if
• 1:17:47
  Speaker 3: you want Toronto, you have to pay a big price
• 1:17:49
  Speaker 3: for it. And also, the oddsmakers... They never respect the A's, right?
• 1:17:54
  Speaker 3: They know the A's are really bad. So if you
• 1:17:57
  Speaker 3: want Toronto, you've really got to pay for it. And
• 1:17:59
  Speaker 3: Toronto is, of course, they're still trying to make the playoffs.
• 1:18:03
  Speaker 3: They're either in the last wild card spot or they're
• 1:18:05
  Speaker 3: really close to it right now. Toronto used five relief
• 1:18:09
  Speaker 3: pitchers yesterday, so I don't really know if we want
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 3: to back their bullpen. Although it's better than the A's,
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 3: even though they only used two. The A's bullpen is
• 1:18:16
  Speaker 3: the worst, even though they're 28th right now in whip.
• 1:18:18
  Speaker 3: They're terrible. They're actually 29th because their ERA is worse
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 3: than Minnesota with the same whip. They're awful. Toronto is
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 3: number 17. Toronto's got a decent bullpen, but I don't
• 1:18:30
  Speaker 3: like the shape that they're in after they used five
• 1:18:32
  Speaker 3: guys yesterday in a close game. The A's are the
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 3: better offense. They're number 12. Toronto is number 27. Can
• 1:18:38
  Speaker 3: Toronto hit better in this stadium? Well, maybe. I mean,
• 1:18:40
  Speaker 3: yesterday's game landed on 11, so it was a high-scoring
• 1:18:43
  Speaker 3: game yesterday. And I believe it was a pretty low
• 1:18:47
  Speaker 3: total in that game yesterday, too, and I think I
• 1:18:49
  Speaker 3: kind of leaned under in some capacity in that game yesterday.
• 1:18:52
  Speaker 3: That did not happen. Toronto has Jose Soriano on the
• 1:18:56
  Speaker 3: mound here. He's been all right. 3.52 ERA, although his
• 1:18:59
  Speaker 3: whip is not really that great. 1.29. What we know
• 1:19:03
  Speaker 3: about him is he's usually better on the road, but
• 1:19:05
  Speaker 3: this year it hasn't really been that significant. 3.45 road
• 1:19:08
  Speaker 3: ERA is a little bit better than his home ERA.
• 1:19:11
  Speaker 3: His opponent batting average is actually worse on the road, though.
• 1:19:15
  Speaker 3: He's not really in excellent form recently. I mean, he's
• 1:19:17
  Speaker 3: walking too many guys. Two of his last three starts
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 3: have been pretty bad. Uh, the only good one was
• 1:19:22
  Speaker 3: at home against Seattle and they can't hit. So I
• 1:19:26
  Speaker 3: don't really love what we're seeing out of him. His
• 1:19:27
  Speaker 3: road starts recently. Haven't really been that good. I don't
• 1:19:30
  Speaker 3: think I'd want to back Soriano in this current form here. Um,
• 1:19:34
  Speaker 3: You do have to look at his home run rate, though,
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 3: and he's not a home run-allowing pitcher, really. He gets
• 1:19:40
  Speaker 3: a lot of ground balls, doesn't allow that many fly balls,
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 3: so that's good for him pitching in the stadium, at least.
• 1:19:47
  Speaker 3: I believe he pitched here last year, and he did
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 3: pretty well. He pitched in the stadium twice this year,
• 1:19:51
  Speaker 3: and he was very mediocre, though. Let me see. He
• 1:19:55
  Speaker 3: had one start at home against the A's that was
• 1:19:57
  Speaker 3: pretty good. Actually, maybe he only pitched in the stadium
• 1:20:00
  Speaker 3: once this year. My mistake. And it wasn't great. Five innings,
• 1:20:04
  Speaker 3: three earned runs allowed, four walks, six strikeouts, six hits,
• 1:20:09
  Speaker 3: one home run allowed. I mean, he wasn't great in
• 1:20:11
  Speaker 3: that game. So I don't know. I don't know what
• 1:20:13
  Speaker 3: we're going to get out of him in this game. Although, yeah,
• 1:20:15
  Speaker 3: generally he doesn't allow many hits. His walk rate is
• 1:20:18
  Speaker 3: too high. His strikeout rate is okay. Strikeout walk ratio
• 1:20:22
  Speaker 3: is only 2.2, which is not very good. An 8.7
• 1:20:26
  Speaker 3: strikeout per nine is all right. His numbers against the
• 1:20:30
  Speaker 3: A's are pretty good, though. 69 at-bats, 203 average, 624 OPS,
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 3: 18-7 strikeout walk ratio. So he has a good matchup here,
• 1:20:39
  Speaker 3: but I don't know, man. He's not in good form.
• 1:20:41
  Speaker 3: He's not as good on the road as he has been.
• 1:20:44
  Speaker 3: Like last year, he was, I think, more significantly like
• 1:20:47
  Speaker 3: a better road pitcher last year. Jack Perkins is pitching
• 1:20:50
  Speaker 3: for the A's. I don't think he's as bad as
• 1:20:53
  Speaker 3: his numbers look. 6.5 ERA, 1.54 whip. Obviously, a lot
• 1:20:57
  Speaker 3: of that is because he pitches in this terrible stadium,
• 1:21:00
  Speaker 3: but he does have to pitch there tonight. 7.04 home ERA. So, yeah,
• 1:21:03
  Speaker 3: he's definitely worse in this stadium. Not exactly backable in
• 1:21:08
  Speaker 3: this stadium. He was bad last time out against Seattle.
• 1:21:11
  Speaker 3: He's had way too many walks recently. Both pitchers are
• 1:21:13
  Speaker 3: walking way too many guys recently. Even though Perkins didn't
• 1:21:17
  Speaker 3: allow many runs in most of these starts, this walk
• 1:21:20
  Speaker 3: rate is really bad, and that's been his issue, like
• 1:21:23
  Speaker 3: he's a really good strikeout pitcher, he has a really
• 1:21:25
  Speaker 3: high strikeout rate, but he's been too hittable, and he
• 1:21:28
  Speaker 3: walks too many guys on top of that, and he
• 1:21:30
  Speaker 3: is a fly ball pitcher as well, so he's allowed
• 1:21:32
  Speaker 3: too many home runs too, which is not good for
• 1:21:35
  Speaker 3: this stadium, but his strikeout rate tells you he does
• 1:21:37
  Speaker 3: have some talent here, like he could fool major league hitters,
• 1:21:41
  Speaker 3: he's 26, I mean he's still young, he might be
• 1:21:44
  Speaker 3: Something at some point, although you got to get him
• 1:21:46
  Speaker 3: out of the stadium, though. 2.5 strikeout walk ratio. I mean,
• 1:21:50
  Speaker 3: this stadium has basically become the course field of the AL. 10.6
• 1:21:55
  Speaker 3: strikeout per nine. That is solid, dude. So he does
• 1:21:58
  Speaker 3: have a good strikeout rate here. Toronto's never faced him before,
• 1:22:02
  Speaker 3: so maybe he might be able to pitch well against Toronto.
• 1:22:05
  Speaker 3: This is a tough game to figure out because current
• 1:22:08
  Speaker 3: form tells me that you should fade both pitchers. But
• 1:22:11
  Speaker 3: the matchup numbers tell me you should back both pitchers. Like,
• 1:22:14
  Speaker 3: what the hell should you do in this game? The
• 1:22:16
  Speaker 3: total's 9.5, which is slightly low for an A's home game.
• 1:22:20
  Speaker 3: 75% of tickets on the under, 90% of the cash
• 1:22:23
  Speaker 3: on the over, though. Given that both pitchers do walk
• 1:22:27
  Speaker 3: too many guys, they're both not really in great form.
• 1:22:29
  Speaker 3: Perkins is home run heavy, and he's not good at home.
• 1:22:32
  Speaker 3: Probably there are more indicators towards taking this game over
• 1:22:34
  Speaker 3: the total here. Yeah, I mean, that might be the
• 1:22:38
  Speaker 3: better approach in this game. 75% of tickets on the under,
• 1:22:42
  Speaker 3: 90% of the cash on the over. I think I
• 1:22:43
  Speaker 3: said that. Toronto's heavily public. 89% of tickets, 91% of
• 1:22:47
  Speaker 3: the cash on them. They dropped from minus 190 basically
• 1:22:50
  Speaker 3: to like minus 180. So some money is coming in
• 1:22:53
  Speaker 3: backing the A's here. I think if you back the A's,
• 1:22:55
  Speaker 3: you should do it in the first five. I don't
• 1:22:57
  Speaker 3: think I'd want to do it anyway. I mean, Toronto
• 1:22:59
  Speaker 3: is the motivated team with the better pitcher on the
• 1:23:02
  Speaker 3: mound here. But do you want to, I mean... it's
• 1:23:05
  Speaker 3: rhetorical like do you want to back them at this
• 1:23:07
  Speaker 3: price because i would say the answer is no i
• 1:23:10
  Speaker 3: mean yeah garrett is parlaying to get this number down
• 1:23:13
  Speaker 3: but it's dude these if you parlay a bunch of
• 1:23:16
  Speaker 3: teams like this you're going to lose like you do
• 1:23:18
  Speaker 3: not want to parlay a bunch of like heavily public
• 1:23:21
  Speaker 3: sides because one of them is going to lose because
• 1:23:23
  Speaker 3: like the odds makers know it's only baseball today and
• 1:23:27
  Speaker 3: the recreational bettors that are playing parlays they're all playing
• 1:23:31
  Speaker 3: these um these favorites like this, you know what I mean?
• 1:23:34
  Speaker 3: They're all playing these more public favorites. So what, at
• 1:23:37
  Speaker 3: least one of them is going to lose because the
• 1:23:39
  Speaker 3: odds makers need that to happen to bust all these parlays.
• 1:23:43
  Speaker 3: So yeah, I would not do it. These like extremely
• 1:23:46
  Speaker 3: public parlays here, you know? All right. Uh, Washington and
• 1:23:50
  Speaker 3: San Diego, San Diego was the more motivated team here. Uh,
• 1:23:54
  Speaker 3: they're trying to make the playoffs here. They're in the
• 1:23:56
  Speaker 3: heated wild card race here, a half game behind Arizona
• 1:23:59
  Speaker 3: for the last spot. I'm pretty sure. San Diego won yesterday.
• 1:24:02
  Speaker 3: They beat Washington. So this series is continuing. It looks
• 1:24:06
  Speaker 3: like Pavetta in his return was pretty good. San Diego
• 1:24:10
  Speaker 3: should have the edge in this game too, but you
• 1:24:12
  Speaker 3: have to pay a lot for it. I do agree
• 1:24:14
  Speaker 3: with San Diego in this game, though. I just don't
• 1:24:15
  Speaker 3: see much going for Washington here. San Diego used four
• 1:24:20
  Speaker 3: relief pitchers yesterday. Washington used two. San Diego, I believe,
• 1:24:25
  Speaker 3: did have to use Mason Miller, though, because it was
• 1:24:27
  Speaker 3: a closer spot. So he's pitched three of the last
• 1:24:29
  Speaker 3: four days. So he's probably not available here. Uh, so
• 1:24:34
  Speaker 3: that might be a problem for San Diego. They do
• 1:24:36
  Speaker 3: still have the better bullpen though. They're number seven. I
• 1:24:38
  Speaker 3: think they're a top five bullpen. Washington's number 26. So
• 1:24:42
  Speaker 3: San Diego still has a better bullpen. Washington has the
• 1:24:44
  Speaker 3: better offense. They're number three. San Diego is, um, number
• 1:24:49
  Speaker 3: 25 better since the all-star break though. But this is
• 1:24:51
  Speaker 3: also a pitcher friendly park. Washington is, uh, going with
• 1:24:55
  Speaker 3: Riley Cornelio Cornholio. Um, Does he need TP for his bunghole?
• 1:25:02
  Speaker 3: I have no idea. But he's going to be making
• 1:25:05
  Speaker 3: the start, apparently, for Washington. But I wouldn't even trust
• 1:25:08
  Speaker 3: that he is actually going to be the starter here.
• 1:25:10
  Speaker 3: He's a relief pitcher. His numbers aren't even good at all,
• 1:25:12
  Speaker 3: by the way. But this is going to be a
• 1:25:14
  Speaker 3: bullpen game for Washington. So you know Brad Lord is
• 1:25:17
  Speaker 3: probably coming into this game at some point. So if
• 1:25:20
  Speaker 3: you're going to play this game, I would pick Mize
• 1:25:22
  Speaker 3: must start for San Diego. Don't pick a starter for
• 1:25:24
  Speaker 3: Washington because it might not be Cornholio. It might be
• 1:25:28
  Speaker 3: somebody else. It might be Lorde, so I have no idea.
• 1:25:33
  Speaker 3: Mize will definitely start for San Diego here, though. They
• 1:25:36
  Speaker 3: picked him up at the trade deadline. He's had a
• 1:25:38
  Speaker 3: good season. 3.64 ERA, 1.12 whip, but he was good
• 1:25:41
  Speaker 3: with Detroit. He hasn't been that good with San Diego
• 1:25:44
  Speaker 3: so far, although he's generally been a good home pitcher. 2.98
• 1:25:48
  Speaker 3: home ERA this year. But with San Diego... He's had
• 1:25:53
  Speaker 3: some bad starts in here, though, man. He's only pitched
• 1:25:55
  Speaker 3: at home twice, though, and one start was good against Milwaukee,
• 1:25:58
  Speaker 3: which is a good sign. The other was not good, though,
• 1:26:00
  Speaker 3: against Minnesota, although they still wound up winning that game.
• 1:26:04
  Speaker 3: He's had pretty much one good road start against Cleveland.
• 1:26:07
  Speaker 3: Bad offense. An offense that's familiar with him, but he
• 1:26:09
  Speaker 3: shut them down anyway. I think he's... probably good against
• 1:26:12
  Speaker 3: them but I don't know his other road starts have
• 1:26:14
  Speaker 3: been pretty bad Arizona Tampa Bay that was an okay
• 1:26:18
  Speaker 3: one and then Cincinnati what do we do with him
• 1:26:20
  Speaker 3: man that's the question like his strikeout walk ratio with
• 1:26:23
  Speaker 3: San Diego I mean it's not good it's like 15
• 1:26:27
  Speaker 3: to 9 I think is what this is so he's
• 1:26:30
  Speaker 3: not striking out that many guys he's walking too many
• 1:26:32
  Speaker 3: guys he's also been too hittable with San Diego so
• 1:26:35
  Speaker 3: he's not been as good with San Diego and Will
• 1:26:38
  Speaker 3: he pitch well here? I think he should start pitching
• 1:26:40
  Speaker 3: better because he's a decent pitcher. He's had a decent season.
• 1:26:43
  Speaker 3: He's been a good home pitcher. This is a pitcher-friendly park.
• 1:26:46
  Speaker 3: Washington only has two guys who have faced him, just
• 1:26:48
  Speaker 3: Abrams and Young, and they're one for five off him.
• 1:26:51
  Speaker 3: Abrams is the only hit with a single, and they
• 1:26:54
  Speaker 3: have one strikeout, no walks against him. So Mize is
• 1:26:57
  Speaker 3: unfamiliar to most of Washington's offense. He should be able
• 1:27:00
  Speaker 3: to outpitch Washington's bullpen game here. I think San Diego
• 1:27:05
  Speaker 3: should win this game, but this price... Yeah, I mean,
• 1:27:08
  Speaker 3: this is one where, like, maybe I think this one
• 1:27:10
  Speaker 3: is okay to have in a parlay here. They're at
• 1:27:13
  Speaker 3: minus 180. They dropped for minus 195. It's a hefty price.
• 1:27:15
  Speaker 3: 85% of tickets, 93% of the cash on San Diego.
• 1:27:21
  Speaker 3: You could maybe make it a minus one run line
• 1:27:24
  Speaker 3: situation here to get the price down that way, and
• 1:27:27
  Speaker 3: then you don't have to do a stupid parlay. Maybe
• 1:27:29
  Speaker 3: that's the way I would do this. Just make San
• 1:27:31
  Speaker 3: Diego a minus one run line favorite, and then as
• 1:27:34
  Speaker 3: long as they win, you won't lose money there. But
• 1:27:37
  Speaker 3: I don't know. I don't exactly love it with an
• 1:27:39
  Speaker 3: offense that isn't really that good in a pitcher-friendly park
• 1:27:41
  Speaker 3: with a pretty low total, eight or seven and a
• 1:27:44
  Speaker 3: half here. But the money, well, it's a public overall,
• 1:27:47
  Speaker 3: though the money seems to be kind of backing the overall.
• 1:27:49
  Speaker 3: I mean, the other way you could play this, just
• 1:27:51
  Speaker 3: because Mize is kind of a mystery here, you could
• 1:27:53
  Speaker 3: take San Diego to go over their team total. If
• 1:27:55
  Speaker 3: you think they're going to win and you think it's
• 1:27:57
  Speaker 3: going to be a little bit of a higher scoring game,
• 1:27:59
  Speaker 3: even though the total doesn't really suggest that, but you'd
• 1:28:02
  Speaker 3: need San Diego to probably score five, I would guess,
• 1:28:06
  Speaker 3: in this one, which is possible. So, you know, I mean,
• 1:28:09
  Speaker 3: that's always possible, but, you know, it doesn't seem that crazy,
• 1:28:13
  Speaker 3: so I don't know. I don't want to touch that game, though.
• 1:28:16
  Speaker 1: St.
• 1:28:16
  Speaker 3: Louis at San Francisco, I don't like this game either.
• 1:28:19
  Speaker 3: San Francisco won 5-4 yesterday. This game was really, like,
• 1:28:25
  Speaker 3: I couldn't figure it out in my mind. Neither team
• 1:28:29
  Speaker 3: is really going anywhere here. I don't like either bullpen.
• 1:28:32
  Speaker 3: San Francisco used four bullpen arms yesterday. So did St.
• 1:28:35
  Speaker 2: Louis.
• 1:28:36
  Speaker 3: San Francisco is the number 24 bullpen. St. Louis is
• 1:28:39
  Speaker 3: number 24. but they have a worse bullpen ERA San
• 1:28:42
  Speaker 3: Francisco's probably the better bullpen, but I don't like either
• 1:28:45
  Speaker 3: of them. San Francisco's ranked 18th offensively, St. Louis 24th.
• 1:28:49
  Speaker 3: I think both offenses are bad, though, and this is
• 1:28:52
  Speaker 3: a pitcher-friendly ballpark, even though there were some runs in
• 1:28:56
  Speaker 3: yesterday's game. San Francisco not as good offensively at home.
• 1:29:00
  Speaker 3: Quinn Matthews getting the start for St. Louis. He's been...
• 1:29:03
  Speaker 3: Hard to predict. He's young. He's got a 4.380 array
• 1:29:06
  Speaker 3: this year, but a 1.58 whip is obviously not good,
• 1:29:09
  Speaker 3: but he's only made five starts, and this is his
• 1:29:11
  Speaker 3: only season in his career. He's had some good starts,
• 1:29:15
  Speaker 3: like two starts ago, and I think I tried to
• 1:29:17
  Speaker 3: fade him. He was really good against Pittsburgh. That was
• 1:29:22
  Speaker 3: really his only really good start, though. His overall numbers
• 1:29:24
  Speaker 3: are not that good. His hit rate's too high. He
• 1:29:27
  Speaker 3: only gave up one run last time out against the Dodgers,
• 1:29:29
  Speaker 3: which is pretty impressive on the road, but he walked
• 1:29:32
  Speaker 3: four guys in that one, so he did get a
• 1:29:33
  Speaker 3: little bit lucky there. And he threw too many pitches,
• 1:29:37
  Speaker 3: given the amount of innings that he threw, so he
• 1:29:38
  Speaker 3: wasn't efficient. His strikeout rate's pretty good, but his walk
• 1:29:42
  Speaker 3: rate is also too high, so he's putting way too
• 1:29:43
  Speaker 3: many guys on base every way that he possibly could.
• 1:29:46
  Speaker 3: Two strikeout walk ratio is not good, especially given that
• 1:29:49
  Speaker 3: his strikeout per nine is close to nine at 8.8.
• 1:29:53
  Speaker 3: He's a guy that's got strikeout talent, man, but he's
• 1:29:55
  Speaker 3: got to stop putting guys on base. This should be
• 1:29:57
  Speaker 3: an easier matchup for him, though. A San Francisco lineup
• 1:30:00
  Speaker 3: that's not really that good in a pitcher-friendly park, so
• 1:30:03
  Speaker 3: Matthews might pitch well here. And on the other side
• 1:30:06
  Speaker 3: of this matchup, Landon Raup is pitching for the Giants.
• 1:30:10
  Speaker 3: He's been mediocre, a 4.17 ERA, 1.29 whip. He's been
• 1:30:14
  Speaker 3: pretty good at home. 4.04 ERA isn't really that good,
• 1:30:17
  Speaker 3: but 201 upon a batting average at home is pretty good.
• 1:30:20
  Speaker 3: He walks too many guys, though, as many do. His
• 1:30:24
  Speaker 3: walk number's been pretty ugly, although he was good last
• 1:30:26
  Speaker 3: time out against Pittsburgh. In Pittsburgh, which is not that
• 1:30:30
  Speaker 3: easy to do, he was pretty efficient. They just took
• 1:30:32
  Speaker 3: him out after five innings, maybe like a load management thing.
• 1:30:36
  Speaker 3: I don't know, but he pitched pretty well. One, I'm
• 1:30:37
  Speaker 3: not getting the win, though, because they won in extra innings.
• 1:30:40
  Speaker 3: Does have a low hit rate. He's hard to hit.
• 1:30:42
  Speaker 3: He throws these crazy breaking balls, gets a lot of
• 1:30:45
  Speaker 3: ground ball outs, but he walks way too many guys,
• 1:30:48
  Speaker 3: and his strikeout rate is okay. He's got a two
• 1:30:52
  Speaker 3: strikeout walk ratio, though, so his walk rate's just way
• 1:30:54
  Speaker 3: too high. 8.5 strikeout per nine's not too bad. Against St. Louis,
• 1:30:59
  Speaker 3: they only have three hitters to efface him, but they're
• 1:31:01
  Speaker 3: four for six off. And Burleson, Herrera, and Walker have
• 1:31:04
  Speaker 3: all faced him. They all have at least one hit
• 1:31:06
  Speaker 3: against him. Walker has a double against him, which is
• 1:31:08
  Speaker 3: the only extra base hit. No strikeouts, one walk here,
• 1:31:12
  Speaker 3: which is not Walker with the walk. It's Burleson. What
• 1:31:16
  Speaker 3: do we do with Raupe here? I mean, I don't know.
• 1:31:17
  Speaker 3: It's such a small sample size. I wouldn't read too
• 1:31:19
  Speaker 3: much into that. I believe the money's back in the
• 1:31:24
  Speaker 3: under in this one. Let me see. No, it's not.
• 1:31:28
  Speaker 3: My mistake. It's back in the over. It looks like
• 1:31:30
  Speaker 3: 74% of tickets, 90% of the cash on the over.
• 1:31:33
  Speaker 3: Some of these market reads have changed, man, which I
• 1:31:35
  Speaker 3: don't love, especially the one that it's fading me with
• 1:31:39
  Speaker 3: that Burns play there. The total's at eight here in
• 1:31:42
  Speaker 3: this game, basically, or seven and a half. It's expected
• 1:31:44
  Speaker 3: to be a low-scoring game, and usually I do like
• 1:31:47
  Speaker 3: playing unders in games like that. I could see the
• 1:31:50
  Speaker 3: argument for the under. I mean, I think you have
• 1:31:52
  Speaker 3: two maybe okay pitchers here, and the offenses aren't very good.
• 1:31:56
  Speaker 3: It's a pitcher-friendly park. Don't like the bullpens though. So
• 1:31:59
  Speaker 3: I think if you go under, you need to do
• 1:32:00
  Speaker 3: it in the first five, but then you're looking at
• 1:32:02
  Speaker 3: like a three and a half. I'm not really interested
• 1:32:05
  Speaker 3: in that. I mean, the full game over might just
• 1:32:07
  Speaker 3: make sense because the bullpens might just blow it. You
• 1:32:10
  Speaker 3: know what I mean? The money is also back in
• 1:32:12
  Speaker 3: San Francisco. They're actually a slight favorite. around minus 112,
• 1:32:16
  Speaker 3: and it looks like St. Louis is slightly public because
• 1:32:18
  Speaker 3: they do have the better record. 58% of tickets, 52%
• 1:32:22
  Speaker 3: of the cash on them, so the money is indicating
• 1:32:24
  Speaker 3: towards San Francisco here. It looks like St. Louis is
• 1:32:27
  Speaker 3: a dreaded public underdog, and you know I do not
• 1:32:30
  Speaker 3: like public underdogs. The anti-public favorite means you're not only
• 1:32:35
  Speaker 3: fading the public, which is generally a good idea, like
• 1:32:40
  Speaker 3: to go contrarian here, but... You're also playing the better team,
• 1:32:45
  Speaker 3: and the public doesn't even want them. You know what
• 1:32:47
  Speaker 3: I mean? I don't know if San Francisco is necessarily
• 1:32:51
  Speaker 3: the better team, but the odds makers are telling you
• 1:32:53
  Speaker 3: that they're supposed to win this game, basically, by the
• 1:32:56
  Speaker 3: fact that they're favored. Partially because they're at home, though.
• 1:32:59
  Speaker 3: All right, Cincinnati at LA is the last game here.
• 1:33:02
  Speaker 3: Don't even want to talk about it. Burns did enough
• 1:33:04
  Speaker 3: for us yesterday, but they pulled them after the third inning.
• 1:33:07
  Speaker 3: And then, like I said, we lost that first five
• 1:33:10
  Speaker 3: play on two unearned runs in the bottom of the fifth.
• 1:33:13
  Speaker 3: So an error did us in when we had a
• 1:33:15
  Speaker 3: 1-0 lead into the bottom of the fifth. I am
• 1:33:17
  Speaker 3: fucking pissed about that. The Dodgers won the full game,
• 1:33:20
  Speaker 3: which I'm not that surprised about because Cincinnati's bullpen is bad.
• 1:33:24
  Speaker 3: That's why I took them out of the equation yesterday.
• 1:33:27
  Speaker 3: Cincinnati only used one bullpen arm, though, because it was
• 1:33:30
  Speaker 3: really just Williamson. After Burns was out of the game, Williamson,
• 1:33:33
  Speaker 3: who is one of their starters, basically just pretty much
• 1:33:36
  Speaker 3: finished the game, except they used one guy after that, Antone, Antoney.
• 1:33:41
  Speaker 3: Dodgers used a bunch of guys. They used four guys
• 1:33:44
  Speaker 3: out of the bullpen yesterday to finish that game off.
• 1:33:46
  Speaker 3: Dodgers still have the better bullpen, though. They're number 10. Cincinnati,
• 1:33:50
  Speaker 3: number 25. Dodgers have the better offense by far. They're
• 1:33:53
  Speaker 3: number two. Cincinnati is number 22. Nicola Dolo getting the
• 1:33:59
  Speaker 3: start of Cincinnati. The Dodgers obviously have the better starter here, but... Lodolo,
• 1:34:05
  Speaker 3: I don't think he's as bad as what his season
• 1:34:06
  Speaker 3: has looked like this year. 5.08 ERA, 1.52 whip. He's
• 1:34:10
  Speaker 3: been dealing with injuries and stuff, but you look at
• 1:34:12
  Speaker 3: his career numbers, he's been a decent pitcher. He's been
• 1:34:16
  Speaker 3: a lot better than this over the last couple seasons.
• 1:34:21
  Speaker 3: I think he's been derailed by injuries. Small sample size here. Yeah,
• 1:34:24
  Speaker 3: he only has a two strikeout walk ratio this year,
• 1:34:27
  Speaker 3: but that's the lowest that he's posted. Lowest strikeout per
• 1:34:30
  Speaker 3: nine as well, 7.3. But you can see that throughout
• 1:34:32
  Speaker 3: his career, he's been capable of doing a lot better
• 1:34:35
  Speaker 3: than this. Do we want to really back him this year, though?
• 1:34:38
  Speaker 3: I don't know, because he's not pitching well this year.
• 1:34:39
  Speaker 3: He has a 6 ERA on the road, which is
• 1:34:42
  Speaker 3: really bad. 5.08 ERA on the season, 1.52 whip. Obviously,
• 1:34:46
  Speaker 3: those numbers are bad. Did pitch well last time out
• 1:34:48
  Speaker 3: against San Diego, but he had a couple of bad
• 1:34:50
  Speaker 3: starts in the two starts prior to that that were
• 1:34:53
  Speaker 3: both on the road. So his road starts recently have
• 1:34:55
  Speaker 3: been bad, and his home starts have been good. even
• 1:34:59
  Speaker 3: though Cincinnati is a hitter-friendly ballpark. He does have way
• 1:35:02
  Speaker 3: too high of a hit rate. His walk rate's not
• 1:35:04
  Speaker 3: good either. His strikeout rate is mediocre at best. So yeah,
• 1:35:08
  Speaker 3: none of that is really that good. However, for whatever reason,
• 1:35:11
  Speaker 3: he's actually not bad against LA. He's 52 at best,
• 1:35:16
  Speaker 3: 250 average, 623 OPS allowed, 16 to 5 strikeout walk ratio.
• 1:35:20
  Speaker 3: So maybe Lodolo can actually somehow hang around in this game. Obviously,
• 1:35:25
  Speaker 3: he's not the better pitcher. Tarek Skubal is pitching for
• 1:35:28
  Speaker 3: the Dodgers. He's pretty much elite. We know this. I mean,
• 1:35:31
  Speaker 3: he is. 2.86 ERA,. 98 whip. He's not been as
• 1:35:36
  Speaker 3: good at home this year. 3.5 ERA. Of course, a
• 1:35:39
  Speaker 3: lot of that was with Detroit. He's been good with
• 1:35:41
  Speaker 3: the Dodgers in general, though. To me, it doesn't look
• 1:35:44
  Speaker 3: like there's that much of a difference with him. home
• 1:35:46
  Speaker 3: versus away he was too hittable last time out at
• 1:35:49
  Speaker 3: home against St. Louis though but he still got through
• 1:35:52
  Speaker 3: that and didn't really allow many runs and they wound
• 1:35:54
  Speaker 3: up winning the game his command numbers are still on
• 1:35:57
  Speaker 3: point there whatever we know he's good he's got a
• 1:36:00
  Speaker 3: low hit rate really doesn't walk anybody has a high
• 1:36:03
  Speaker 3: strikeout rate as well 7.2 strikeout per uh strikeout walk
• 1:36:08
  Speaker 3: ratio yeah that's good um 10.8 strikeout per nine also
• 1:36:12
  Speaker 3: pretty good Numbers against Cincinnati, also good, although they only
• 1:36:16
  Speaker 3: have five guys to have faced him. 32 at-bats, they
• 1:36:18
  Speaker 3: only have four hits. One extra base hit is a
• 1:36:21
  Speaker 3: double from Bledet. In fact, the only hits have come
• 1:36:24
  Speaker 3: from Bledet and Hayes. Nobody else in this lineup has
• 1:36:27
  Speaker 3: hit him. 14 strikeouts, two walks, 125 average. And in fact,
• 1:36:31
  Speaker 3: those are the only guys that have reached base against
• 1:36:33
  Speaker 3: him either, or as well, I should say. The only
• 1:36:35
  Speaker 3: walks have come from them. 125 average allowed, 333 OPS average.
• 1:36:42
  Speaker 3: What do we do with this game, man? I mean,
• 1:36:44
  Speaker 3: you can't play L.A. at the price that they're at,
• 1:36:49
  Speaker 3: minus 330-something. No, I mean, you cannot play any baseball
• 1:36:53
  Speaker 3: team at that price. Garrett, I know, is playing them
• 1:36:56
  Speaker 3: and knocking the price down, but L.A. is a public side, man.
• 1:36:59
  Speaker 3: 94% of tickets, 91% of the cash on them. I
• 1:37:02
  Speaker 3: don't really want much to do with them here. I
• 1:37:07
  Speaker 3: kind of like the first five under in this game.
• 1:37:09
  Speaker 3: The money's coming in on the over, though. 53% of
• 1:37:11
  Speaker 3: tickets on the under, 86% of the cash on the over.
• 1:37:14
  Speaker 3: The over might make sense in the full game. The
• 1:37:17
  Speaker 3: total is low, though. Eight, seven and a half. Full game,
• 1:37:20
  Speaker 3: I would not really trust these bullpens here. Really, especially
• 1:37:23
  Speaker 3: not Cincinnati's, but first five, you might be able to
• 1:37:26
  Speaker 3: get an under to happen here. I mean, Lodolo is
• 1:37:29
  Speaker 3: not as bad as his numbers suggest, but he's got
• 1:37:31
  Speaker 3: to somehow turn it around. He's got to somehow regain
• 1:37:34
  Speaker 3: his form He hasn't done that, so that is kind
• 1:37:36
  Speaker 3: of a problem, but he does have good matchup numbers
• 1:37:38
  Speaker 3: against LA for whatever reason. Scooble is Scooble and does
• 1:37:41
  Speaker 3: not have bad matchup numbers at all here, so I
• 1:37:43
  Speaker 3: expect him to pitch well. The other thing is, if
• 1:37:46
  Speaker 3: you think that the Dodgers will win this game, and
• 1:37:53
  Speaker 3: Scooble is your big advantage here, and you think it
• 1:37:55
  Speaker 3: might be lower scoring early on, you could do something
• 1:37:58
  Speaker 3: really granular and do Cincinnati's team total under in the
• 1:38:01
  Speaker 3: first five, or you could do... The number of runs
• 1:38:05
  Speaker 3: that Scooble allows under a certain number, you know what
• 1:38:08
  Speaker 3: I mean? Of course, an error could screw you. If
• 1:38:12
  Speaker 3: you do either of those, you're probably going to need
• 1:38:14
  Speaker 3: Cincinnati to score at most one run. So I don't
• 1:38:17
  Speaker 3: like playing things that way because some fluke could just
• 1:38:21
  Speaker 3: kill you if that happens. But those are my thoughts
• 1:38:24
  Speaker 3: on that game, and that's it, man. That's the last game, right? Yes, sir.
• 1:38:29
  Speaker 1: All right.
• 1:38:29
  Speaker 3: That's the show. My two plays today are Tampa Bay
• 1:38:33
  Speaker 3: money line and Arizona first five money line. It looks
• 1:38:35
  Speaker 3: like the market agrees with me on Tampa Bay. You
• 1:38:37
  Speaker 3: get the rest edge there. Arizona, we'll see. We'll see
• 1:38:40
  Speaker 3: if Burns has it, man, in his return. The Burns return.
• 1:38:45
  Speaker 3: I think he should be good. We're going first five
• 1:38:47
  Speaker 3: on that, though, not full game. So, you know, it's
• 1:38:51
  Speaker 3: a little bit of a different market there, but that's
• 1:38:53
  Speaker 3: going to do it. Learn to tote on Twitter. Learn
• 1:38:54
  Speaker 3: to tote on Instagram. Like, subscribe to the channel here.
• 1:38:57
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• 1:39:01
  Speaker 3: Toadstool Sports, man. Hype it. Comment. Give me good comments, whatever.
• 1:39:05
  Speaker 3: Audio numbers are going up, man, so I don't know
• 1:39:07
  Speaker 3: what's going on there. I want them to go up higher, though,
• 1:39:09
  Speaker 3: because it's monetized. I can make some money that way.
• 1:39:12
  Speaker 3: It's got to go up higher, but I like the
• 1:39:13
  Speaker 3: way that it's trending. So we're on audio, Apple, Spotify, Spreaker.
• 1:39:17
  Speaker 3: Covered in Uke is my ukulele channel on YouTube, so
• 1:39:20
  Speaker 3: you can look at that as well. I haven't really
• 1:39:22
  Speaker 3: done a whole lot with that recently. My voice usually
• 1:39:25
  Speaker 3: is fine during the summer, but I don't know, man.
• 1:39:27
  Speaker 3: Maybe it's from talking on this show too much. I
• 1:39:29
  Speaker 3: don't know what to tell you. I've done this show
• 1:39:30
  Speaker 3: for years, though, so I don't know. Maybe it's just
• 1:39:33
  Speaker 3: being old. patreon.com slash learn to tote if you want
• 1:39:37
  Speaker 3: to support me that way I know I'm not active
• 1:39:39
  Speaker 3: enough on there I gotta figure something out about that
• 1:39:41
  Speaker 3: loser cast every Tuesday night but I'm not gonna be
• 1:39:44
  Speaker 3: here tonight so if they do the show tonight I'm
• 1:39:46
  Speaker 3: not gonna be on it but you can check that
• 1:39:48
  Speaker 3: out and then New York Giants G spot podcast we
• 1:39:51
  Speaker 3: gotta figure that out I talked to Adam Nutter about
• 1:39:53
  Speaker 3: that yesterday but we need to talk to Ben to
• 1:39:56
  Speaker 3: see what we're gonna do about that that's gonna do
• 1:39:58
  Speaker 3: it yes hockey is coming back that is correct Thank you, everybody.
• 1:40:05
  Speaker 3: Let's have a winning day for once. How about that?
• 1:40:08
  Speaker 3: Can we actually go 2-0? If we go 1-1, we're
• 1:40:10
  Speaker 3: going to lose. Although, you know, I guess it's not
• 1:40:13
  Speaker 3: the end of the world if we go 1-1. But
• 1:40:14
  Speaker 3: the goal is 2-0 here at these two plays. So
• 1:40:18
  Speaker 3: let's have it. Let's get a win today. That's going
• 1:40:19
  Speaker 3: to do it.
• 1:40:20
  Speaker 2: Peace. If the dark starts talking, hand me the phone.
• 1:40:28
  Speaker 1: Let somebody answer, let somebody know. You do not have.
• 1:40:34
  Speaker 2: To lose this round alone. Hold on, hold on, not tonight.
• 1:40:47
  Speaker 2: Not now Hold on.
• 1:40:52
  Speaker 1: Hold on Let me.
• 1:40:54
  Speaker 2: Pull you out That bad luck bites hard But it
• 1:41:03
  Speaker 2: don't get the crown Hold on.
• 1:41:08
  Speaker 1: Hold on Stay with me now
• 1:41:15
  Speaker 2: Hold on, hold on You're still here now guitar solo