Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / NFL Conference Championship Gambling Preview

Transcript

NFL Conference Championship Gambling Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:00
Speaker 1: The favorite podcast is presented by fan Duel sports Book.
0:03
Speaker 1: There's no better place to bet the action than on
0:06
Speaker 1: FanDuel Sports Book during the football season. There America's number
0:10
Speaker 1: one sports book with an easy to use app that's
0:12
Speaker 1: safe and secure, and when I win, I get paid
0:15
Speaker 1: out in as little as two hours. And this season,
0:18
Speaker 1: fandel Sports Book is making betting easy for everyone with
0:22
Speaker 1: great promos like risk free bets, enhanced odds markets, same
0:26
Speaker 1: game parlays, and more. So if you're new, just download
0:30
Speaker 1: the FanDuel sports Book app to get started and sign
0:32
Speaker 1: up with promo code Favorites so they know I sent
0:36
Speaker 1: you. You You must be twenty one or older and president
0:38
Speaker 1: in Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Tennessee, Virginia
0:42
Speaker 1: or West Virginia. Gambling problem called one eight hundred next
0:47
Speaker 1: step or text next step to five two in Arizona
0:51
Speaker 1: one eight seven eight nine seven seven seven seven or
0:54
Speaker 1: visit CCPG dot org slash chat in Connecticut one eight
0:59
Speaker 1: hundred ambler or visit FanDuel dot com slash r G
1:02
Speaker 1: in Colorado, Indiana, New Jersey, Virginia one eight seven zero
1:07
Speaker 1: seven for confidential help. In Michigan called the Tennessee Red
1:11
Speaker 1: Line at one eight eight nine, or visit one eight
1:15
Speaker 1: hundred Gambler dot net in West Virginia. Welcome to the Favorites,
1:27
Speaker 1: the podcast from the Value and Podcast Network. Guyam Chad Milman,
1:31
Speaker 1: Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. It is Tuesday
1:35
Speaker 1: of Conference Championship Week. I am joined as always by
1:42
Speaker 1: my co host, my companion, my bff, my compadre, my
1:47
Speaker 1: fellow winner, Big Big Winner. We returned to being not
1:54
Speaker 1: just the biggest baddest best betting podcast in the world,
1:58
Speaker 1: but the biggest baddest best betters in the world. Simon Hunter,
2:05
Speaker 1: professional better wise Man once said to meet Chad, if
2:08
Speaker 1: you win, they will come and buddy, have we been winning.
2:12
Speaker 1: We've been winning and it's great and we're gonna we're
2:14
Speaker 1: gonna get to all that. We're gonna get to. Obviously,
2:17
Speaker 1: our thoughts on Bengals and the Chiefs, the Cincinnati Bengals
2:23
Speaker 1: came roaring back, and the Niners and the Rams, the
2:29
Speaker 1: side in the total. We have so much to discuss.
2:32
Speaker 1: The weekend was amazing, the football was amazing. We were
2:36
Speaker 1: wrong on the Titans, we were spot on about the Niners.
2:42
Speaker 1: We were spot on about the Rams, and we were
2:46
Speaker 1: on about the Chiefs in what seems like the only
2:50
Speaker 1: two people in the world who do this from a
2:53
Speaker 1: betting point of view, who liked the Chiefs, and we're
2:56
Speaker 1: gonna talk about that, but first, obviously, the Chiefs were
3:00
Speaker 1: playing the Bills. Matt Mitchell has discussed his love of
3:04
Speaker 1: Bill's Dumb often. He last week rotated through every piece
3:07
Speaker 1: of Bills clothing in his wardrobe ord every day or
3:10
Speaker 1: every day through the playoffs, been buying ice cream for
3:13
Speaker 1: his neighbors when the Bills win, to entice them into
3:16
Speaker 1: becoming Bills fans. I was heartbroken about that game for him.
3:21
Speaker 1: I would have rather have lost our bet and won
3:23
Speaker 1: the game then have won the bet at some point
3:26
Speaker 1: because it was just so enthralling. Let me tell you
3:29
Speaker 1: what a problem Matt Mitchell is, because I slacked you
3:32
Speaker 1: and him, and I said, I'm heartbroken for you. Totally
3:36
Speaker 1: good if you want to take the week off. Matt
3:38
Speaker 1: Mitchell was bright and early in a meeting the next day,
3:41
Speaker 1: as if you know, life just goes on. And when
3:45
Speaker 1: we when we all got on the zoom for the podcast,
3:49
Speaker 1: you and I were already on Simon talking and then
3:51
Speaker 1: Matt jumped in, and your response to him was, hey, Matt,
3:56
Speaker 1: as if like he was in mourning. So Matt Mitchell,
3:59
Speaker 1: I'll stop up give us some feedback. He Chad Simon.
4:04
Speaker 1: It wasn't a great game. I wouldn't say I had
4:07
Speaker 1: a blast, but as you know, I live in the
4:10
Speaker 1: buckle of the dairy belt, Milwaukee, Wisconsin, and last year
4:14
Speaker 1: the Packers and the Bills lost in conference title games
4:18
Speaker 1: within like four hours of each other, and my block
4:21
Speaker 1: was it was bleak, and I remember telling my neighbors,
4:25
Speaker 1: at least it'll ever be like this, can never be
4:28
Speaker 1: this sad again. And then a year later, the Packers
4:31
Speaker 1: lose out a blocked punt in prime time, and the
4:34
Speaker 1: next day in prime time, the Bills lose a gut wrenching,
4:38
Speaker 1: awful game in which I tricked all of my neighbors
4:42
Speaker 1: into getting emotionally invested into so they could get the
4:46
Speaker 1: metaphorical two scoops of punishment. My neighbor, Andrew his wife Emily,
4:52
Speaker 1: was the most excited about ice cream and actually texted me,
4:55
Speaker 1: I'm so excited for you. I'm so excited for ice
4:58
Speaker 1: cream with thirty seconds to go, before being screamed at
5:02
Speaker 1: by everyone in a group text. Then after the game,
5:06
Speaker 1: ran across the street with the world's largest slice of
5:09
Speaker 1: apple pie, knocked on my door and ran away. So
5:13
Speaker 1: I just ate the pie in silence in my dark kitchen.
5:16
Speaker 1: And it did work. It did make me feel noticeably
5:19
Speaker 1: less angry, because you know, when you lose a game
5:21
Speaker 1: like that, you know it's bad. When you get texts
5:24
Speaker 1: like you have a beautiful family, When you get when
5:30
Speaker 1: you get texts like you're a make a wish child
5:33
Speaker 1: and you're gonna be fine. You're gonna be fine. You've
5:35
Speaker 1: got all sorts of stuff going for you, stuff like that,
5:38
Speaker 1: you know it's you know, it's pretty bad. I do
5:40
Speaker 1: remember after the game looking back, and I'll never ever
5:43
Speaker 1: in my in my life if I lived to be
5:46
Speaker 1: a thousand years old, while I willingly watch higlots from
5:48
Speaker 1: that game ever again, I do remember, for the first
5:51
Speaker 1: time I think I can, I can recall a drunk
5:53
Speaker 1: guy running onto the field made it onto the broadcast
5:56
Speaker 1: because at the two minute warning, he like made it
5:58
Speaker 1: to the line of scrimmage, and looking back, it feels
6:01
Speaker 1: like he might have just been a time traveler coming
6:04
Speaker 1: to warn Sean McDermott that when you score this touchdown,
6:07
Speaker 1: you got a script kicker so that you can take
6:10
Speaker 1: another five seconds off the clock. But either way, he
6:13
Speaker 1: fell short, just like Buffalo. My heart is broken. But
6:16
Speaker 1: you know, you just keep moving on, You keep one
6:19
Speaker 1: ft in front of the other. You keep delivering best
6:22
Speaker 1: in class podcasts to the masses. You are a fucking
6:26
Speaker 1: pro and you're an adult, and I love you for it,
6:29
Speaker 1: and I love you for your attitude. I'm here for support,
6:32
Speaker 1: as is Simon. There's lots of unpack on what you
6:36
Speaker 1: just said. I love the community you're living in that
6:39
Speaker 1: everyone is all for one, one for all. I love
6:43
Speaker 1: that even in the buckle of the dairy belt where
6:46
Speaker 1: it's two degrees outside, people are still cheering to have
6:49
Speaker 1: ice cream. And also that someone ran across the street.
6:53
Speaker 1: I bet they weren't even wearing a coat when it
6:54
Speaker 1: was two degrees outside and delivered you apple pie. That's amazing.
7:00
Speaker 1: It was snowing too, so by the time I got
7:02
Speaker 1: to the pie there was a little bit of snow
7:03
Speaker 1: on it. It was a real metaphor for what was
7:05
Speaker 1: going on. So, yeah, it's a nice community we built here.
7:09
Speaker 1: As someone from Western New York. It was heartening to
7:12
Speaker 1: just see everyone in town, especially on my block, shuffling
7:16
Speaker 1: around extra miserable on a Monday because all sports hope
7:21
Speaker 1: it's been lost. It's a very familiar feeling to me,
7:24
Speaker 1: very comforting, like a warm blanket here in this cold basement.
7:28
Speaker 1: I would speak as someone that has spoken a total
7:31
Speaker 1: of three words to their neighbors, because I'm pretty sure
7:33
Speaker 1: they all think I'm like a hit man or a
7:35
Speaker 1: drug dealer or something like that. Because I'm some young
7:37
Speaker 1: kid living in a really nice neighborhood. I'm jealous. Seems like, man,
7:41
Speaker 1: some good friends I live around him. I would love
7:43
Speaker 1: to have someone dropped me off pie in the middle
7:44
Speaker 1: of the night. I'm definitely a one of those people
7:46
Speaker 1: in my generation where it's like I have four friends
7:48
Speaker 1: and that's that's all I can fit, you know. But
7:51
Speaker 1: my neighbors are nice. I do the wave like we wave.
7:53
Speaker 1: I just don't like they look at me like, what
7:55
Speaker 1: what's this dude up to? Very ship like I'll be
7:57
Speaker 1: gone for weeks at a time. It's just they don't
7:59
Speaker 1: trust them. Well I can understand why they don't. I
8:02
Speaker 1: mean again, we'll dive into the games. Chad but Matt,
8:05
Speaker 1: Matt's just handling it really well. I'm proud of our guy,
8:08
Speaker 1: fucking pro I just love the guy. Uh. You know
8:11
Speaker 1: who did trust you this weekend? Me because that was
8:15
Speaker 1: not on that Niner side. You convinced me to do it.
8:18
Speaker 1: By definition, you convinced me. You convinced me on our show,
8:21
Speaker 1: convinced me on at Action Network ag Q on Sundays.
8:24
Speaker 1: We will do the show this Sunday at eleven am Eastern.
8:28
Speaker 1: I didn't really have a take on that game. You're like,
8:29
Speaker 1: you gotta do San Francisco. I did it. I felt
8:32
Speaker 1: great about it. We all felt great about it. But
8:35
Speaker 1: that Chief's game, well, you and I we loved the
8:39
Speaker 1: Chiefs from the second the line was posted. Because of Mahomes.
8:42
Speaker 1: That was it. Like, at the end of the day,
8:44
Speaker 1: it didn't need to be any more complicated than that.
8:47
Speaker 1: Mahomes at home, best quarterback of his generation, needed ten
8:52
Speaker 1: seconds to go forty five yards. Yeah, that was it.
8:58
Speaker 1: Like we joked about keep it simple, but that's like
9:00
Speaker 1: sometimes it really is that way. Me never fading my
9:04
Speaker 1: homes unless it's against Brady has been Has it really
9:07
Speaker 1: served me well in these playoffs and just his career.
9:09
Speaker 1: This is what fourth straight AFC championship games for Patrick,
9:13
Speaker 1: so it's it's pretty historical and there's gonna be for
9:16
Speaker 1: us to be better Bills fans where it's like, yeah,
9:19
Speaker 1: they got lucky, and we'll talk about every game this
9:21
Speaker 1: past weekend. You need luck to win these games. We
9:23
Speaker 1: talked about that's why I didn't really like the Bucks
9:25
Speaker 1: to make our run to another Super Bowl. It's like,
9:27
Speaker 1: go back through what they did last year. All the
9:29
Speaker 1: little bounces went their way and again we'll talk about
9:32
Speaker 1: the Bucks game. The Bounces almost went their way again,
9:34
Speaker 1: but this Bills game was just it's the dream. It
9:36
Speaker 1: really is. Chead. It's like we have a sport where
9:39
Speaker 1: we lose a Peyton Manning, we lose the Drew Brees
9:42
Speaker 1: incomes the Josh Allen and comes to my homes and
9:44
Speaker 1: now we have this matchup for you know, the next
9:47
Speaker 1: ten fifty years. Like you saw them embraced after the game,
9:49
Speaker 1: and it's like these two dudes love each other, the
9:52
Speaker 1: respect each other, and it's like that's the highest level.
9:56
Speaker 1: That's gonna be the highest level of QB competition. We'll
9:58
Speaker 1: see this whole playoffs like there's nothing and there's no
10:01
Speaker 1: other matchup I could see really compared to that one,
10:03
Speaker 1: and you could see I was getting piste off. I
10:05
Speaker 1: couldn't stand people keep telling me about the Bills number
10:07
Speaker 1: one d v O A defense. It was like, what
10:10
Speaker 1: the fund does that even mean? Like they're playing against
10:13
Speaker 1: once in a generational talent and my Homes. It's like, yeah,
10:15
Speaker 1: their defense, they might be able to get stops here
10:17
Speaker 1: and there, but it's like when my Homes wants it,
10:20
Speaker 1: when the Andy Reid's cooking up those plays, Tyreek Hills
10:23
Speaker 1: running down that field, Kelsey's running down the field, It's
10:26
Speaker 1: it's just an offense that just can't be stopped. And
10:29
Speaker 1: that was a classic matchup where whoever had the ball
10:32
Speaker 1: last was gonna win. We talked about that going in.
10:34
Speaker 1: Our biggest reason for liking Homes is it was under
10:37
Speaker 1: a field goal, like that game, what they missed. They
10:40
Speaker 1: missed a field goal, they missed that extra point with
10:43
Speaker 1: the Chiefs. It's like that game. That number was so smart. Yeah,
10:46
Speaker 1: it sucks people got burned by the it lanted on
10:49
Speaker 1: six because of the overtime, But that Dad, to me,
10:51
Speaker 1: was just such a perfect example. Here's just two great offenses.
10:55
Speaker 1: You know and meach I love bend Unders. I told you,
10:57
Speaker 1: I'm just gonna bet be over Like I just in
11:00
Speaker 1: in that matchup, I just could not see where it
11:02
Speaker 1: was gonna go to an under Like we knew that
11:04
Speaker 1: fourth quarter was gonna be be mental. Yeah, we did
11:07
Speaker 1: not see that coming. That was Josh Allen did everything
11:10
Speaker 1: you could do right in that game. That's what I
11:13
Speaker 1: feel so bad about Bills fans where it's like he
11:15
Speaker 1: had two touchdowns on fourth down, Like every time they
11:18
Speaker 1: needed to step up and make a play, he kept
11:20
Speaker 1: doing it. And yeah, people can betch Himan about their
11:23
Speaker 1: coach kicking those punts and him do squipt kicking in
11:26
Speaker 1: and doing whatever. At the end of the game. It's
11:27
Speaker 1: like easy to say standing back that that coach, that team,
11:31
Speaker 1: they almost played a perfect game. They just went up
11:34
Speaker 1: against something we've never seen before. It's like, my homes
11:37
Speaker 1: Tom Brady ain't doing that Tom Brady. We've never seen
11:39
Speaker 1: Tom Brady drive a field in ten seconds. It's like
11:41
Speaker 1: that one player, that one offense, the one playmaking weapons
11:45
Speaker 1: he's had. I mean, you're with me, Chad, that was
11:48
Speaker 1: I mean, other than Super Bowls, that's the greatest game
11:50
Speaker 1: will probably ever say, unbelievable. You say that, Uh, you
11:55
Speaker 1: didn't see the last two minutes unfolding that way. I'm
11:59
Speaker 1: gonna go a little dad proud here for a second.
12:02
Speaker 1: Three because three things and it all ties together. One
12:05
Speaker 1: watching that game with my kid, Owen, he's fifteen, and uh,
12:09
Speaker 1: the Bills have the ball, and he goes, here's what's
12:12
Speaker 1: gonna happen. The Bills are going to score, the Chiefs
12:17
Speaker 1: will get the ball back, they'll score. The Bills are
12:20
Speaker 1: going to score, and then the Chiefs are gonna score.
12:22
Speaker 1: He just he I'm like, dude, you're an idiot. That's
12:25
Speaker 1: never gonna happen. And then that's exactly what happened. He
12:28
Speaker 1: is texting me right now from one floor below me
12:31
Speaker 1: to tell me that there are reports that Sean Payton
12:36
Speaker 1: is retiring as head coach of the New Orleans Saints. Yeah.
12:40
Speaker 1: I mean we talked last week about that. We we
12:42
Speaker 1: think he's gonna go somewhere else. Obviously, he's not retiring
12:45
Speaker 1: from football like Chad. He said, you're retiring from the Saint.
12:48
Speaker 1: So again, I thought it was suspicious all these teams
12:51
Speaker 1: have been doing the flying holding pattern, not hiring any
12:53
Speaker 1: of these coaches like this is late for no one
12:56
Speaker 1: to be hired as a head coach. I think we
12:58
Speaker 1: just gotta answer why people want to get on Peyton
13:00
Speaker 1: arguably a top four, top five coach in the NFL
13:03
Speaker 1: right now. Sean Payton, Chicago kid played for the Chicago
13:07
Speaker 1: Bears as a as a strike quarterback as a replacement
13:12
Speaker 1: player quarterback during the strike in the nineteen eighties. The Bears.
13:17
Speaker 1: This is the third thing about my kid that I
13:19
Speaker 1: will say that is relevant. Just hired Ryan Poles from
13:24
Speaker 1: the Kansas City Chiefs player personnel director as their new GM.
13:28
Speaker 1: The reason I know that is because the second had happened.
13:32
Speaker 1: My kid ran upstairs and I was in a zoom
13:36
Speaker 1: meeting with our overlords from Denmark and some of our
13:40
Speaker 1: colleagues from London, and I was presenting something. He doesn't
13:45
Speaker 1: give a fuck. He came in started talking, reading me
13:49
Speaker 1: the news report about Ryan Poles being hired, and I
13:51
Speaker 1: couldn't find the mute button because I was sharing my screen.
13:54
Speaker 1: I just let him keep going. Also, I kind of
13:57
Speaker 1: want to know what he had to say, because he
13:58
Speaker 1: only comes up here when something important has had inning
14:00
Speaker 1: with the Bulls or the Bears. So I found that
14:02
Speaker 1: out and when it was over, I just had to
14:04
Speaker 1: be The news never stopped at the Action Network people.
14:07
Speaker 1: Nothing can keep the news from being broken. That's how
14:11
Speaker 1: into sports we are, and that's how we went through
14:13
Speaker 1: the rest of the meeting. So now we know that
14:16
Speaker 1: Sean Payton's available, we know the Bears have a new GM,
14:20
Speaker 1: things are looking up. From my guys in Chicago. Yeah,
14:24
Speaker 1: for all the losing teams losing franchises, this is as
14:26
Speaker 1: exciting as it gets for us. The off season, we
14:29
Speaker 1: got some big games. Man. No, let's um. Let's I
14:32
Speaker 1: mean that again. The least past week we talked about
14:35
Speaker 1: we missed on the Titans. People want us to break
14:38
Speaker 1: that down. I don't hate the Bengals. Chad doesn't hate
14:40
Speaker 1: the Bengals. We just thought that was a good spot
14:42
Speaker 1: for the Chiefs. They got nine sacks like that was
14:47
Speaker 1: historical what we saw. I believe it was Donnan the McNabb.
14:50
Speaker 1: You got sacked eight times and he won a game
14:52
Speaker 1: in two thousand, two thousand one playoff game, which was
14:54
Speaker 1: the last time it had happened. Joe Burrow sacked nine times,
14:57
Speaker 1: didn't have his best game. But this is why people
15:00
Speaker 1: keep talking about Joe Cool. The biggest moment. They got
15:03
Speaker 1: the ball back twenty seconds left. They ran their best
15:06
Speaker 1: play to Chase, which was a really nice pattern across
15:09
Speaker 1: the field that broke them right to the sideline. I mean,
15:12
Speaker 1: it's like, I'm so happy for Bengals fans again, We're
15:15
Speaker 1: gonna make our picks, like coming up, but the Bengals
15:19
Speaker 1: forty niners, Like whatever the matchup will be. If the
15:21
Speaker 1: Bengals could somehow beat the Chiefs team, it's like it
15:25
Speaker 1: might be one of my favorite stories of the last
15:27
Speaker 1: fifteen twenty years. It's insane, this this franchise that was
15:32
Speaker 1: whatever they'll say they were a hundred fifty one to
15:35
Speaker 1: make the Super Bowl. Crazy crazy. So that game that
15:38
Speaker 1: was just fun. Like I I had the under sweating
15:41
Speaker 1: the Titans, like kept getting sucked back in where it's like,
15:44
Speaker 1: holy ship, the Titans are back, Like tan Hill just
15:46
Speaker 1: doesn't can't turn the ball over. We'll get this. They
15:49
Speaker 1: run some stupid ass play in that third and one,
15:51
Speaker 1: some dumbass play again on fourth and one where it's
15:53
Speaker 1: like we're we're not gonna get this cover, are we?
15:55
Speaker 1: And we didn't. We lost. Tannehill couldn't stop turning it over.
15:59
Speaker 1: I hate that I got sucked in that, Like the
16:02
Speaker 1: books know what they do, and they sucked in people
16:04
Speaker 1: like me where it's like a great running team, a
16:06
Speaker 1: one seed they had beaten there were four and now
16:08
Speaker 1: against the teams that were remaining in the playoffs at
16:10
Speaker 1: that point, like they had been all those teams in
16:12
Speaker 1: the regular season. And Tannehill turned back into a pumpkin
16:16
Speaker 1: like he fucked us. And that sucks. But that's what
16:20
Speaker 1: we played the numbers Chad like, I can't predict him
16:22
Speaker 1: having all those turnovers. But um Man, since they might
16:25
Speaker 1: be get lucky here, but they've earned it. They've had
16:27
Speaker 1: two big wins against Air Karr and Tannehill. Well, look,
16:30
Speaker 1: there was a moment in that game where it looked
16:32
Speaker 1: like we were gonna walk away with an undeserved cover.
16:35
Speaker 1: It was, you know, fourth and one on the Bengals
16:38
Speaker 1: twenty something yard line, and if the Titans get that,
16:41
Speaker 1: they're gonna go score touchdown. And I think I don't
16:44
Speaker 1: think the Bengals would have recovered because they were being
16:46
Speaker 1: dominated at that point. Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs.
16:53
Speaker 1: Look the Chiefs. Look, a headline was six and a half.
16:57
Speaker 1: We were telling people that the Chiefs at six and
16:59
Speaker 1: a half, like it'll it will open back up at
17:00
Speaker 1: seven if the Chiefs win. So it does. The Chiefs
17:03
Speaker 1: are seven point favorites right now. The total in this
17:07
Speaker 1: game fifty four and a half. This is the early
17:11
Speaker 1: game on Sunday. What do we think here? Obviously my
17:14
Speaker 1: instincts right away when it was seven and a half
17:16
Speaker 1: with the Bengals is like, take that Bengals number. It's
17:18
Speaker 1: a good number. The numbers make it. I should say
17:22
Speaker 1: it's to open it. It was a six and a
17:24
Speaker 1: half look ahead, got to seven when it opened again,
17:27
Speaker 1: got to seven and a half. Now it's been back
17:29
Speaker 1: down to seven. I make this line six and a half.
17:32
Speaker 1: So technically I'm just a favorite the Bengals here, But
17:35
Speaker 1: I just I can't do it. Can't go against my homes.
17:39
Speaker 1: The Bengals have beaten their car at home. Then they
17:43
Speaker 1: just went beat Ryan Tannehill African stack nine times. Now
17:46
Speaker 1: they're going to play the Chiefs in Arrowhead in a
17:49
Speaker 1: matchup where they had to hold the Chiefs of three
17:52
Speaker 1: points in the second half at home to cover and
17:54
Speaker 1: beat them by three points. I love it. I like
17:56
Speaker 1: love this whole since his story and like that's why
17:58
Speaker 1: I don't want to be the guy to be like
17:59
Speaker 1: you take the Chalker, you take the Chiefs. But like
18:02
Speaker 1: the public, they're all over this one. I know a
18:04
Speaker 1: bunch of professionals I talked to. They got in on that.
18:06
Speaker 1: Since the number at seven and a half, that's a
18:08
Speaker 1: good number to me, those seven that kind of even
18:11
Speaker 1: though again I make this number six and a half,
18:12
Speaker 1: I think that favorite towards the Chief's team, Like that
18:15
Speaker 1: feels like the right number for this match up. Again,
18:18
Speaker 1: I want to take the Bengal so bad. I love
18:20
Speaker 1: this story. It's it's insane to me, Like I really
18:23
Speaker 1: cannot believe where they're at. Just everything I had to
18:26
Speaker 1: bounce their way from the win the North. Now they
18:28
Speaker 1: had two playoff matchups, which again we can shoot on
18:31
Speaker 1: them that it's easy matchups. Those are hard games to win,
18:33
Speaker 1: Like those are big time playoff games against the veteran quarterbacks.
18:36
Speaker 1: They've won and like Zach Taylor, he's coached well, And
18:40
Speaker 1: like I love shooting on that guy because I don't
18:41
Speaker 1: think he's gonna coach, but he's done enough, Like he's
18:43
Speaker 1: gotten the team in this position. It's obviously worked. I
18:47
Speaker 1: can't not go with the Chiefs, like, I just can't
18:50
Speaker 1: do it. So maybe it'll change come Thursday. But as
18:53
Speaker 1: we sit here right now, like it's not my favorite bet,
18:56
Speaker 1: like I I just I like the Chiefs. I think
18:58
Speaker 1: it's a fair number. It's a good price. I would
19:01
Speaker 1: take it. But you can hope out, like maybe the
19:04
Speaker 1: professionals are coming and keep betting down this Bengal's number,
19:07
Speaker 1: But to me, I can only see it going up.
19:09
Speaker 1: So I'm cool with taking the Chiefs now at this seven.
19:11
Speaker 1: And um, if I need to buy out or if
19:13
Speaker 1: I want to come back on the Bengals and bet more,
19:15
Speaker 1: I'll definitely keep your bill updated. But this, this to me,
19:18
Speaker 1: is just a fair price for the Chief's number. Pros
19:20
Speaker 1: Joe's game right now of the bets on the Chiefs
19:26
Speaker 1: per cent of the money on the Bengals. But but
19:30
Speaker 1: I do think I do think that that is really
19:33
Speaker 1: because of the seven and a half. You know, at seven,
19:36
Speaker 1: I think things are going to even out a little bit.
19:38
Speaker 1: I don't see bookmakers coming off of the seven. It's
19:41
Speaker 1: two key of the number. I think they know that
19:43
Speaker 1: if they go back to seven and a half, the
19:46
Speaker 1: wise guys are gonna pummel it. I think if they know,
19:48
Speaker 1: if if money does come in on on the Bengals
19:51
Speaker 1: at seven and they go to six and a half,
19:54
Speaker 1: people are gonna kill the six and a half. Like
19:56
Speaker 1: they they sort of got it to seven and a
19:59
Speaker 1: half to they put it at seven and a half
20:01
Speaker 1: to see what they could tolerate. Now they know it's
20:06
Speaker 1: at seven, it's gonna stay there. So it really is
20:09
Speaker 1: going to come down to do you like Patrick Mahomes,
20:12
Speaker 1: Do you like Joe Burrow? That's really it. It's just
20:14
Speaker 1: a fair number as we sit here. But if they
20:16
Speaker 1: get blown out thirty one to ten, the Bengals, we
20:19
Speaker 1: won't hold anything against them. Like it's they went from
20:23
Speaker 1: having the number one pick two years ago and taking
20:24
Speaker 1: Joe Burrow to the a f C Championship game. Like
20:27
Speaker 1: every franchise, that's your dream, Like your dream is to
20:30
Speaker 1: get the quarterback and then he makes a run in
20:33
Speaker 1: the playoffs. So yeah, keep it simple, stupid here, take
20:36
Speaker 1: the Chiefs. But I gotta talk to their professionals, Like
20:39
Speaker 1: I just know that a bunch of guys I respect
20:42
Speaker 1: already got in on the Bengals. I want to know
20:43
Speaker 1: if it's just because the number of seven and a
20:45
Speaker 1: half and he thought that was a good value, Or
20:47
Speaker 1: do you really think this Bengals team can do this
20:49
Speaker 1: and pull the upset? Like again, I'm still like halfway
20:52
Speaker 1: halfway catching up to this week just because, like I
20:55
Speaker 1: just talked about us such a crazy weekend. I obviously
20:58
Speaker 1: one big cause I was celebrating. So it's like I'm
21:00
Speaker 1: kind of getting my bearings here this morning and trying
21:02
Speaker 1: to get everything and get more info. But I've talked
21:05
Speaker 1: to a handful of groups and again, well we'll talk
21:08
Speaker 1: about the next game too, but they love the dogs
21:10
Speaker 1: this week and it's key numbers. We're talking seven and
21:12
Speaker 1: a half for the Bengals, We're talking three and a
21:14
Speaker 1: half for the four nineers, and if you do like
21:17
Speaker 1: the Chiefs, I would take the seven. I just can't.
21:20
Speaker 1: I can see this bumping back episode and a half.
21:22
Speaker 1: But Chad just talked about so much pro money came
21:24
Speaker 1: in on that seven and a half. It's gonna take
21:26
Speaker 1: a lot for the books and move it back into that,
21:28
Speaker 1: like the public will really have to come and have
21:30
Speaker 1: you on the Chiefs, which that's that's the only way
21:33
Speaker 1: this is gonna move. Like I like, like Chad, you
21:36
Speaker 1: just said, I can't see this touch in six. That's
21:38
Speaker 1: such a six and a half, seven and seven and
21:41
Speaker 1: a half six, These are all key numbers. I really
21:44
Speaker 1: can't see them open themselves up to a one and
21:45
Speaker 1: a half middle where they're moving it down to six. Now,
21:49
Speaker 1: if this game lands on seven, Pros could hit the
21:50
Speaker 1: six on the Chiefs and hit the seven half of
21:52
Speaker 1: the Bengals. They don't want that position, So I don't
21:56
Speaker 1: see much movement going on with this number dropping down.
21:59
Speaker 1: The total is also interesting. It's a fifty four and
22:01
Speaker 1: a half, so it's it's you know, in key number
22:04
Speaker 1: range being a key number. It plays the way you
22:08
Speaker 1: think about it to the over, right, because explosive offenses
22:14
Speaker 1: not great defenses. As as well as the Chiefs have played,
22:17
Speaker 1: there's still not a sort of high caliber defense. The
22:22
Speaker 1: Bengals rush defense can be good, not as good in
22:26
Speaker 1: the past defense. So it plays to the over. But
22:30
Speaker 1: it almost feels too square to be playing the over. Yeah,
22:33
Speaker 1: but like we we talked about, I throw that square
22:36
Speaker 1: stuff out when gets plus, like that's the over. Last week,
22:39
Speaker 1: I think it was nine to one the money on
22:40
Speaker 1: the over. But the Bills Chief game, we took it
22:43
Speaker 1: because it's like, yeah, I love fading the public, but
22:45
Speaker 1: when it comes in the playoffs, we just see it
22:47
Speaker 1: time and time agetting. This weird, wacky stuff is gonna happen. So,
22:50
Speaker 1: like you had to talk about, my instincts are go under,
22:52
Speaker 1: Like take the dog, take the under. Matthews getting the
22:55
Speaker 1: honey Badger got knocked out. I believe it was the
22:57
Speaker 1: first series against the Bills was a big deal. We
23:00
Speaker 1: saw multiple blown coverages, especially by that backup safety that
23:05
Speaker 1: came into that game for that Chief's team. That's a
23:07
Speaker 1: big deal for this Chiefs defense, like they need him back. Man.
23:11
Speaker 1: You're right, Chad, Like I, I haven't obviously been on
23:14
Speaker 1: this total yet. I want to take the under, but
23:17
Speaker 1: I just can't do it. These two quarterbacks we talked about, Joe,
23:21
Speaker 1: Joe just never gives up. My only fear is I
23:24
Speaker 1: saw Zach Taylor kind of play a little bit like
23:26
Speaker 1: a coward last week kicking those field goals. I saw
23:28
Speaker 1: the same thing with Andy Reid Andrey had a fourth
23:30
Speaker 1: and one with the best quarterback in football, which if
23:33
Speaker 1: he would have scored a touchdown in that possession, they
23:35
Speaker 1: would have been up two scores on the Bills, he
23:37
Speaker 1: kicked the meaningless a pointless field goal, like again, fourth
23:40
Speaker 1: and one inside the red zone after a big return
23:42
Speaker 1: by Tyrek Hill. I thought there was no chance after
23:45
Speaker 1: that point return they were going to kick a field
23:46
Speaker 1: goal there, and he did so again. I have to
23:49
Speaker 1: take more time looking at this, but yeah, I leaned
23:51
Speaker 1: towards the over just because of both these quarterbacks. But
23:53
Speaker 1: these these these coaches played towards the under like they
23:57
Speaker 1: they play more of the old school style of just
23:59
Speaker 1: taking the points in your down there, trust your defense.
24:01
Speaker 1: So um um, again, I'm leaning towards the ender. But
24:05
Speaker 1: there's no official leaning towards the over, but no official
24:07
Speaker 1: play yet. We will lock things in on Thursday, as
24:13
Speaker 1: we do every single week. Tuesday is our first reaction, uh,
24:17
Speaker 1: thinking about where the biggest opportunities are. Thursday we begin
24:21
Speaker 1: to think about locking things in based on market news,
24:24
Speaker 1: based on trends we've seen, based on calls we've made, etcetera, etcetera.
24:29
Speaker 1: Last Thursday, Chad, we went six and two on side
24:31
Speaker 1: in totals, So pretty pretty good. All right, let's talk
24:36
Speaker 1: about Let's talk about the Niners San Francisco forty Niners
24:40
Speaker 1: at Los Angeles Rams. We talked about this on convinced
24:43
Speaker 1: me to convinced me. We've been like rocket fuel fire.
24:48
Speaker 1: We said, if this game is it three, you want
24:53
Speaker 1: to bet the three and this game open to three
24:56
Speaker 1: and a half. I'm talking about the Rams and the Forts.
25:00
Speaker 1: It opened a three and a half immediately Sunday night.
25:03
Speaker 1: What's amazing to me is that there's still three and
25:06
Speaker 1: a half's out there, like three and a half minus
25:09
Speaker 1: one fifteen. I jumped on it so quickly on Sunday
25:12
Speaker 1: night because I was worried like it would last for
25:14
Speaker 1: about thirty seconds. I don't know why it's still at
25:17
Speaker 1: three and a half. It makes no sense to me.
25:19
Speaker 1: Pros are split. I told you coming into the playoffs,
25:23
Speaker 1: really smart professional groups. They bet big money on the
25:26
Speaker 1: Rams in the preseason to make it to a Super Bowl,
25:29
Speaker 1: to win a Super Bowl. That was something they were
25:31
Speaker 1: really harping on. I never got behind it. I just
25:34
Speaker 1: couldn't believe it. With Stafford and yeah, I bet Stafford
25:37
Speaker 1: against Arizona and I took him against the Bucks in
25:39
Speaker 1: that last matchup, but it was purely matchup base Like again,
25:43
Speaker 1: that's my favorite thing is like I try to take
25:45
Speaker 1: the human element out of it. We just run the numbers.
25:47
Speaker 1: We left the pieces forward in May. And my big
25:50
Speaker 1: thing about the Rams was, I felt like too much
25:53
Speaker 1: is being made about the injuries to their offensive line
25:56
Speaker 1: that you know they'd be down arguably one of the
25:58
Speaker 1: best left tackles and all football, and Whitworth and I
26:02
Speaker 1: talked about it. I just didn't see no Bloom being
26:04
Speaker 1: that terrible, that much of a step down. How many
26:07
Speaker 1: times do you hear his name in that game chat.
26:09
Speaker 1: You've only heard his name when people were saying how
26:11
Speaker 1: Greaty was playing. And that's that's the dream there. It's like, Okay,
26:14
Speaker 1: you're getting a little bit of a value bump here
26:16
Speaker 1: because the public is perceiving that as a huge injury loss.
26:19
Speaker 1: Where we saw it was on the other side with
26:21
Speaker 1: the Buccaneers they lost that was huge. We saw they
26:25
Speaker 1: kept they kept moving air and down on on that edge,
26:27
Speaker 1: they kept moving von Miller over there. They just really
26:30
Speaker 1: abused that side against that Bucks team, and they had
26:32
Speaker 1: to get four fumbles by cam Akers or whoever, I mean,
26:35
Speaker 1: Cooper Cup had one. They just had to get all
26:37
Speaker 1: those turnovers get back in the game of the Bucks
26:39
Speaker 1: where this Rams team that was just a perfect matchup
26:43
Speaker 1: for that Rams offense. We we talked about we needed
26:45
Speaker 1: for them to win. We knew they're gonna have to
26:46
Speaker 1: air it out. Stafford couldn't miss. So now we're coming
26:49
Speaker 1: back with the Four Ninis team. What have they done.
26:52
Speaker 1: They've been so impressive with their pass rush that quarterbacks
26:55
Speaker 1: just can't get comfortable against them. That's like I know,
26:58
Speaker 1: Chris talked about a Raybon on our show, like that's
27:00
Speaker 1: why he loved the Four Nines where their front four,
27:02
Speaker 1: and I'm with him, I love that front four. We
27:05
Speaker 1: saw Fred Warner be that difference in that game. Like again,
27:07
Speaker 1: their front four was incredible. Every play with that Green
27:10
Speaker 1: b A team, he was there in the middle of
27:12
Speaker 1: the field really shutting it down. With Stafford, he loves
27:14
Speaker 1: these quick little throws to set up these long throws
27:16
Speaker 1: of Cooper cup or Odell. That's really where there's own
27:19
Speaker 1: defense kind of shut you down. The Four Nights just
27:22
Speaker 1: play a zone where it's like no no long shots,
27:25
Speaker 1: no going downfield. You gotta take it real slow, one
27:28
Speaker 1: at a time, go down field methodically. And we've seen
27:31
Speaker 1: it twice this year. Stafford just couldn't adjust to it.
27:35
Speaker 1: Like people keep talking about, well, what are they gonna
27:37
Speaker 1: do if the Rams get up big on them? I
27:39
Speaker 1: get up big on the four and I team, Me
27:41
Speaker 1: and you had lost a lot of money and we
27:43
Speaker 1: what was the seventeen against the Rams? Four nine is
27:46
Speaker 1: where they were up seventeen to three at halftime we
27:49
Speaker 1: blinked it was seventeen seventeen four and then all of
27:53
Speaker 1: a sudden, the Jimmy G's driving down the field to
27:56
Speaker 1: win the game for this four and Irons team. So I,
27:59
Speaker 1: I of the data doesn't support uh, four straight road
28:03
Speaker 1: wins for a team. Again, the four Niners win against
28:06
Speaker 1: the Rams on the road, then they just won their
28:08
Speaker 1: last playoff game on the road. The game before that
28:10
Speaker 1: was on the road. Like them to win four straight
28:12
Speaker 1: road games, I believe it's never happened before. I'll have
28:15
Speaker 1: to check that, Labs. But off the top of my head,
28:18
Speaker 1: I can't think of a team winning four straight road
28:20
Speaker 1: games in my lifetime because it's very unique where they
28:23
Speaker 1: played road games end of the season and the playoffs,
28:25
Speaker 1: they've just been on the road. So um, as we
28:29
Speaker 1: sit here right now, chat, I'm I'm right there with you, buddy,
28:32
Speaker 1: Like all these professionals, me we're all over the four
28:36
Speaker 1: nineers were on the three and a half. We have
28:38
Speaker 1: our twenty one future which sorry again about the Titans
28:41
Speaker 1: eight to one that didn't work, but we still have
28:43
Speaker 1: twenty one on the four niners. And at this point
28:47
Speaker 1: again we'll talk about that next show about hedging that.
28:49
Speaker 1: That's that's just a great ticket to have in your
28:51
Speaker 1: back pocket because you can take the three and a
28:52
Speaker 1: half now, which is a key number, and you don't
28:54
Speaker 1: have to take the money aline on the ram the
28:56
Speaker 1: four niners if you don't want to. You can just
28:58
Speaker 1: let that future ride of a twenty one money line
29:01
Speaker 1: right now in the forty niners. So I'm I'm with you.
29:04
Speaker 1: I'm scared about it, um that it's just sat there,
29:07
Speaker 1: the three and a half because I'm like, yo, I
29:08
Speaker 1: thought he'd be three by now. But I bet it.
29:11
Speaker 1: That's my biggest bet right now at the weekend. Um,
29:13
Speaker 1: I I bet a three and a half, Like chat.
29:15
Speaker 1: I woke up expecting it Monday morning to be down
29:17
Speaker 1: to three. It wasn't. Bet it again. Woke up again
29:21
Speaker 1: this morning still three and a half. Bet it again. So, um,
29:24
Speaker 1: we'll see about the injury news again. I'm not gonna
29:26
Speaker 1: put a ton yet because I gotta wait on the
29:28
Speaker 1: injury report. But Kit will look good like Kittle. Apparently
29:31
Speaker 1: it's all good with the ankle. I know Jimmy didn't
29:34
Speaker 1: do much in that game, which we didn't really talk
29:36
Speaker 1: about much. Um. I know how bad you want to
29:39
Speaker 1: shoot on Aaron Rodgers. But man, that's what I love
29:42
Speaker 1: about the four nineers. It's like their offense could do
29:45
Speaker 1: nothing for four quarters and then you just went to
29:47
Speaker 1: lambow on one. Like. If that's not a team of destiny,
29:50
Speaker 1: I don't. I don't know what is. It's not destiny.
29:53
Speaker 1: It's what we say every week about Kyle Shanahan. He's
29:56
Speaker 1: just a really good coach. I don't think anybody coaching
30:00
Speaker 1: football gets more excited or has more fun scheming for
30:05
Speaker 1: specific talents on his team. And it doesn't matter if
30:08
Speaker 1: that talent is Deebo Samuel, who you can argue is
30:11
Speaker 1: the best all around football player in the game today,
30:14
Speaker 1: or if it's a third string quarterback. He enjoys this
30:19
Speaker 1: so much. It is so clear he doesn't ever think
30:23
Speaker 1: of players being out or having diminished skill sets as
30:28
Speaker 1: being something that has put upon him or is a challenge.
30:32
Speaker 1: He's like, I'm gonna have fun figuring out what this is.
30:34
Speaker 1: This is a fun puzzle to do, and it's so
30:36
Speaker 1: it's surprising to me that in a game like this,
30:40
Speaker 1: where the games have been so close all year and
30:43
Speaker 1: the niners of one, so obviously people are gonna say
30:45
Speaker 1: it's hard to beat a team three times in a row,
30:47
Speaker 1: and the staff bear that out. Half point in a
30:50
Speaker 1: game that I think should be three points is all
30:53
Speaker 1: the world here, go ahead and correct me. From our
30:55
Speaker 1: friends of Bett Labs, teams that are do and O
30:58
Speaker 1: against teams they used already in the regular season, they
31:02
Speaker 1: are fourteen and uh. They've won fourteen out of twenty
31:06
Speaker 1: one games against said team in the playoffs, so so
31:09
Speaker 1: that hits at a sixty six percent clip. Again, the
31:11
Speaker 1: team that is two and oh against that team in
31:13
Speaker 1: the regular season wins in the playoffs. So that's actually
31:16
Speaker 1: one of the few stats that favors the forres trend wise,
31:19
Speaker 1: which is like some teams just have teams numbers. That's
31:23
Speaker 1: a really really nice sample. Again, out of twenty one matchups,
31:27
Speaker 1: fourteen wins, seven losses. That's that's money. That's money maker
31:31
Speaker 1: right there. So I like that, Simon Hunter. I love
31:34
Speaker 1: that you're correcting me about that. That's fat again, Like
31:37
Speaker 1: that's what I love about the Action team. Like I
31:39
Speaker 1: have no idea how to use bet labs. I can
31:41
Speaker 1: this DM Travis and he'll just be like, do this,
31:43
Speaker 1: do that, do that? That's sad and open it up
31:46
Speaker 1: and it's like, and you love trends again. I'm not
31:48
Speaker 1: the biggest trend better. They're just fun to look at
31:50
Speaker 1: because it gives you comfort and makes you if you
31:52
Speaker 1: already believe in one side, it's like, see see this trend.
31:54
Speaker 1: This makes it sound better. But I found that one
31:57
Speaker 1: very interesting where we all know straight wins Shanahan's had
32:01
Speaker 1: against McVeigh. We've all seen that stat. I wanted to
32:05
Speaker 1: fade it again. At the end of the regular season.
32:07
Speaker 1: I was like, the Rams are a better team. They
32:09
Speaker 1: know that if they beat the four Uninitis where they
32:11
Speaker 1: knocked them out of the playoffs up seventeen and three
32:14
Speaker 1: at halftime. They blew that game, the Rams. And I
32:17
Speaker 1: am a big believer in you pay for your mistakes
32:21
Speaker 1: in life, like you can get forgiveness, you can go
32:24
Speaker 1: on with life. But I talked about that Bills game.
32:26
Speaker 1: They're paying for their demons of what they did in
32:29
Speaker 1: the regular season. They should have been at home against
32:31
Speaker 1: the Chiefs. They win that game every time, but they
32:34
Speaker 1: lost to the Jaguars. They dropped all those bullshit games.
32:38
Speaker 1: They had to go on the road to play the Chiefs,
32:40
Speaker 1: and that factored in, Like that was to me a
32:43
Speaker 1: big deal if they were at home in the freezing
32:45
Speaker 1: cold where Josh Allen just dominated that New England team,
32:48
Speaker 1: Like I just see that as a big advantage of
32:49
Speaker 1: a big, strong quarterback where it just didn't like them
32:53
Speaker 1: going arrowhead that was their achilles heel, like that really
32:55
Speaker 1: messed them up. And I'm looking at this Rams team.
32:58
Speaker 1: They should have knocked the they should have knocked out
33:01
Speaker 1: the four nine. And now the four are going on
33:03
Speaker 1: this crazy run. Their defense is humming. It's just like again,
33:08
Speaker 1: we'll we'll talk about the total, like I'm gonna go
33:10
Speaker 1: towards the under. This is just a really really to
33:13
Speaker 1: me two teams that just really scheme well against each other.
33:17
Speaker 1: And I love the matchups for this four team on
33:20
Speaker 1: all offense and defense. Like you talked about Debo, there's
33:23
Speaker 1: just nothing like it. And that's another guy where I
33:25
Speaker 1: need to know his health because I know his knee
33:26
Speaker 1: got hit on that final play, that third and seven run.
33:29
Speaker 1: He took a really nasty shot and then he was
33:32
Speaker 1: apparently hurt but celebrating after the game. Um, that's such
33:36
Speaker 1: a big deal. So I've seen a couple of books
33:39
Speaker 1: online post the betting percentages right now. I've seen a
33:42
Speaker 1: few books more sighted towards the Rams. I know the
33:45
Speaker 1: pro is gonna come on the three and a half.
33:47
Speaker 1: I just know that's gonna be a pro number. So
33:49
Speaker 1: if if you do want to grab the three and
33:50
Speaker 1: a half, I grab that now before it does. Get
33:52
Speaker 1: the three. I make that time and says yea. So
34:07
Speaker 1: Simon says, get the three and a half. Let's talk
34:09
Speaker 1: about the total was a forty six and a half.
34:11
Speaker 1: It does feel like an under to me, like these
34:14
Speaker 1: teams know each other so well, unless there is this,
34:18
Speaker 1: unless there is sort of those variants moments like we
34:22
Speaker 1: saw with the Chiefs and the Bills are like we
34:23
Speaker 1: saw with the Rams and the Niners at the end
34:25
Speaker 1: of the season, where those last three minutes are back
34:29
Speaker 1: and forth, back and forth. This is a snot knocker game.
34:32
Speaker 1: And like, let's not discount the Rams defense. Von Miller,
34:36
Speaker 1: Aaron Donald Jalen Ramsey. Their plan lights out. This is
34:41
Speaker 1: gonna be a game that is predicated on great defense. Yeah,
34:44
Speaker 1: people always bitch about us talking about key numbers, and
34:47
Speaker 1: that Bucks game was. It was one of my favorite
34:49
Speaker 1: things about that game was such a key number game
34:51
Speaker 1: where the game landed on three. The total was seven
34:55
Speaker 1: a half forty and a half forty eight depends when
34:57
Speaker 1: you got it. It was to twenty. The they had
35:01
Speaker 1: the ball, the rams can't makers fumbled it. Obviously that
35:04
Speaker 1: screwed up that total, but it was like we nailed
35:06
Speaker 1: that number, We nailed the under like that was No
35:09
Speaker 1: one has a system that can predict these kind of
35:10
Speaker 1: things that happened like that can't make or fumbles, So
35:13
Speaker 1: that's always a sweat buddy. When we bet these unders,
35:15
Speaker 1: it's like one or two little flukey pays like that,
35:18
Speaker 1: you're screwed. Like if those kind of things happen that
35:21
Speaker 1: that's usually gonna be in So first, like when you
35:24
Speaker 1: first look at this number, that screams take the other
35:26
Speaker 1: like Dave, it's down to forty six and a half. Again,
35:29
Speaker 1: forty seven is a very key number. The book knows
35:32
Speaker 1: that they're doing. I can see a lot of over
35:33
Speaker 1: money coming in on this number, So I'll wait, I'll
35:37
Speaker 1: see if I can get it back above the forty seven.
35:39
Speaker 1: But that's this is a good under. Like we have
35:41
Speaker 1: two teams, like Chad just talked about, they know each other.
35:45
Speaker 1: Stafford's gonna have like Stafford is gonna have Like again,
35:47
Speaker 1: he played incredible against that Bucks. He's gonna have to
35:51
Speaker 1: have a Stafford game eventually, right, Like he's been unbelievable
35:54
Speaker 1: and I've we've seen quarterbacks going these runs, but man,
35:58
Speaker 1: he's he'd been in oble Like that throw to Cooper
36:01
Speaker 1: Cup at the end of that game, that's legendary, Like
36:04
Speaker 1: that is a legendary throw that man stepped up. There
36:08
Speaker 1: was only one play to make and he made it
36:10
Speaker 1: on a blitz. It was incredible. So I just look
36:14
Speaker 1: at this game not going as easy as it did
36:16
Speaker 1: with the Bucks in the ramps, Like that was just
36:20
Speaker 1: incredible matchup where McVeigh has had the books and we
36:23
Speaker 1: saw it earlier the year they put up with thirty
36:25
Speaker 1: one against the Bucks at home. It's just been different.
36:27
Speaker 1: The four nineers. Damiko Ryan's has just schemed really well
36:30
Speaker 1: for this defense. So I'm I feel like we're gonna
36:33
Speaker 1: be on an island taking this under because the public
36:35
Speaker 1: is just gonna really pound this over. Um, maybe we'll
36:39
Speaker 1: make our foxhole bet uh come Thursday. But I love
36:43
Speaker 1: this under, but I just want to make sure it
36:44
Speaker 1: gets back above forty seven. That's such again, such a
36:46
Speaker 1: key number. Seven to twenty just alians a lot more
36:50
Speaker 1: often than you believe. So if we can able, if
36:52
Speaker 1: we can wait, like most people should just be waiting now, Um,
36:56
Speaker 1: three and a half take that for the fourty niners.
36:58
Speaker 1: We talked about the seven for the Chiefs. That's you
37:00
Speaker 1: can kind of wait and see where that goes. But
37:02
Speaker 1: with this one, I'd wait. That's a key number. Forty
37:05
Speaker 1: five and a half. Forty six not as a key
37:07
Speaker 1: number as you think it is. It's not until it
37:08
Speaker 1: gets down to forty four forty three and a half
37:10
Speaker 1: where we start talking key numbers again. So to me,
37:13
Speaker 1: you're kind of a no man's land with this total.
37:15
Speaker 1: If you like the under like I do, just wait.
37:19
Speaker 1: The NFL conference championships are here to celebrate. Fandual Sports
37:23
Speaker 1: Book is hooking new customers up with thirty to one
37:27
Speaker 1: enhanced odds for either conference championship that five dollars to
37:31
Speaker 1: win one d and fifty on any team to win
37:34
Speaker 1: either conference championship game on Sunday. I'm going with the
37:38
Speaker 1: fully loaded Kansas City Chiefs over the Cincinnati Bengals, who
37:41
Speaker 1: are simply no match for this Chief's offense. To sign
37:44
Speaker 1: up for Fandual Sports Book and make a deposit to
37:47
Speaker 1: claim your thirty to one enhanced odds. There's no better
37:50
Speaker 1: place to bet the NFL Playoffs than in America's number
37:52
Speaker 1: one sports book with a safe, secure, and easy to
37:55
Speaker 1: use app. And when I win, FanDuel pays me my
37:57
Speaker 1: winnings and as little as two wars already have Fandual
38:01
Speaker 1: sports Book vandals hooking up all customers with fifty dollars.
38:05
Speaker 1: When you refer a friend plus your friend will get
38:08
Speaker 1: fifty dollars too. Don't miss your chance to win one
38:10
Speaker 1: hundred and fifty dollars off a five dollar bet when
38:13
Speaker 1: you use promo code Favorites. When signing up, download the
38:16
Speaker 1: Fandual Sports Book app, use promo code Favorites, and pick
38:19
Speaker 1: your conference championship team before kickoff. Must be one and
38:24
Speaker 1: over and president in Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey,
38:28
Speaker 1: New York Tennessee, Virginia or West Virginia. New users only
38:33
Speaker 1: a ten dollar first deposit required, must wager in designated
38:37
Speaker 1: offer market max bonus one hundred and fifty dollars bonus
38:41
Speaker 1: for Tennessee users fulfilled in site credit within seventy two hours.
38:45
Speaker 1: Tennessee site credit expires fourteen days after receipt. Restrictions apply.
38:51
Speaker 1: See terms at sports book dot FanDuel dot com. Gambon
38:54
Speaker 1: problem called one eight hundred next step or text next
38:57
Speaker 1: step to five three three four two in Arizona one
39:00
Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler, or visit vanduel dot com slash RG
39:03
Speaker 1: in Colorado, Indiana, New Jersey. In Virginia one eight eight
39:07
Speaker 1: eight seven eight nine seven seven seven seven, or visit
39:10
Speaker 1: CCPG dot org slash chat in Connecticut one eight hundred
39:15
Speaker 1: to seven zero seven one seven for confidential help in
39:18
Speaker 1: Michigan one eight seven seven eight hope and why, or
39:21
Speaker 1: text hope and why in New York called the Tennessee
39:24
Speaker 1: Red Line one eight hundred eight eight nine nine seven
39:27
Speaker 1: eight nine, or visit one eight hundred gambler dot net
39:30
Speaker 1: in West Virginia. We're gonna wait on the chiefs minus
39:37
Speaker 1: seven will review how the market is moving, We're going
39:40
Speaker 1: to probably take the over. I forgot you were wishy
39:45
Speaker 1: washy on that. That's what I mean. I'm leaning towards
39:47
Speaker 1: you over, like my system says take the under. But
39:50
Speaker 1: I'm fading my system on the Chiefs and the over
39:52
Speaker 1: in that one. I'm just computers can't comprehend my homes.
39:55
Speaker 1: It's the same thing with Brady back in the day.
39:57
Speaker 1: It just it doesn't really computers owners saying great mess.
40:00
Speaker 1: And then Simon says, take the niners three and a
40:03
Speaker 1: half and let's wait on the forty six and a half.
40:05
Speaker 1: Let's see how it moves. All right, let's do scooch Roulette.
40:11
Speaker 1: When all hope is lost, all that's left is relief,
40:15
Speaker 1: Let's play scooch Roulette. Simon, you can go first. Last week,
40:22
Speaker 1: I believe I one of the chiefs. Who did you have,
40:25
Speaker 1: Chad you had? Or the Tennessee Titans? Going back to
40:29
Speaker 1: my well, I love them, love the four nine ers.
40:32
Speaker 1: It's my again. I was thinking about towards the totals.
40:35
Speaker 1: But as we sit here Tuesday, give me the three
40:37
Speaker 1: and a half. We love that number. I'll make Chad
40:40
Speaker 1: in the tough spot to pick the next one. It
40:42
Speaker 1: is a tough spot because it's the only number that
40:44
Speaker 1: I'm truly convinced of right now. Alright, I'm gonna take
40:48
Speaker 1: the Chief's minus seven. Wow, That's all I can do.
40:51
Speaker 1: I mean, it's the only one I feel remotely good about. Um,
40:53
Speaker 1: it was seven and a half, I would take the Bengals,
40:55
Speaker 1: but it is what it is, and I don't like
40:57
Speaker 1: the totals right now. All right, we will be back
41:00
Speaker 1: on Thursday. We'll talk about sharp calls. We'll see how
41:03
Speaker 1: the market has moved some of these numbers, will update
41:06
Speaker 1: any of our picks. We'll see if we come to
41:08
Speaker 1: a consensus on the totals. For Simon Hunter, I am
41:11
Speaker 1: Chad Melman. For Matt Mitchell, producer extraordinaire. This has been
41:17
Speaker 1: the favorites from the Volume Podcast Network. Download US, rate US,
41:22
Speaker 1: review US, subscribe from app a podcast from Spotify until Thursday.
41:28
Speaker 1: Love You