Latest / AG Bull / Jim Rothermich | Iowa farmland holds firm as record corn harvest approaches!

Transcript

Jim Rothermich | Iowa farmland holds firm as record corn harvest approaches! · AG Bull

• 0:21
  SPEAKER_01: Well, how are we doing, everyone?
• 0:23
  SPEAKER_01: Tom Grassofi Ag Bull Podcast, Ag Bull Trading.
• 0:26
  SPEAKER_01: We got the uh land talker on here today, and we haven't met with the Land Talker for a few months.
• 0:32
  SPEAKER_01: Summertime's probably quiet for land prices, and we know commodity prices have been going sideways, but let's see what uh the one and only the land talker.
• 0:40
  SPEAKER_01: How are you doing, Jim?
• 0:41
  SPEAKER_01: Good, Tommy.
• 0:42
  SPEAKER_01: How are you doing today?
• 0:43
  SPEAKER_01: I'm doing well.
• 0:44
  SPEAKER_01: Well, I skipped you last month and not on purpose.
• 0:47
  SPEAKER_01: I was just a little busy, but we'll get back on track.
• 0:50
  SPEAKER_01: There's nobody in the business doing a finer job than what you're doing with this here, Land Talker Monthly.
• 0:55
  SPEAKER_01: And I think people can uh subscribe to it for free, correct?
• 0:58
  SPEAKER_00: Absolutely.
• 0:59
  SPEAKER_00: That's a free subscription.
• 1:00
  SPEAKER_00: I keep track of all the land auctions in Iowa, and all you have to do is go to our website www.ioappraisal.com and sign up for that.
• 1:10
  SPEAKER_00: It's a monthly newsletter that is free subscription.
• 1:13
  SPEAKER_00: It goes out first business day of the month via email.
• 1:17
  SPEAKER_00: So well, people like free stuff.
• 1:20
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, it you know, I just put the whatever happened as far as land auctions go in that in a table, and then whatever uh I pick up the narrative I put in there is you know what I pick up talking to auctioneers confirming those results.
• 1:36
  SPEAKER_01: Well, we uh first page is a little bit about the weather.
• 1:39
  SPEAKER_01: We had some drought, I think we got out of that.
• 1:41
  SPEAKER_01: We did see the Mississippi River uh lower, but this is the August land talker.
• 1:45
  SPEAKER_01: We're coming into the end of September.
• 1:47
  SPEAKER_01: What's changed much between August and September, my friend?
• 1:51
  SPEAKER_00: Well, right now, the difference between August and September is the volume of acres going to auction is is starting to increase.
• 1:57
  SPEAKER_00: We're getting into selling season.
• 1:59
  SPEAKER_00: August, you know, for if there's an off-season for land auctions, it's it's from you know April till August.
• 2:07
  SPEAKER_00: And so now we're starting to ramp up those volume of auctions.
• 2:11
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, as as you see in the newsletter there, I think it was like 6,700 acres went to auction in August.
• 2:17
  SPEAKER_00: Well, in September, there's 13,000 acres, a little over 13,000 acres going to be.
• 2:24
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, so you know, we're testing the market.
• 2:27
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, okay, it says 6874 acres going to auction in August.
• 2:32
  SPEAKER_00: So that's not really not enough to test the market.
• 2:35
  SPEAKER_00: But what now we're getting up to 13,000 over 13,000 acres.
• 2:39
  SPEAKER_00: That's testing the market, Tommy.
• 2:42
  SPEAKER_00: And I'm telling you what, just their first week of September, we had one farm sold in Mitchell County, Iowa, right along the Iowa, Minnesota border, north central Iowa,$24,400 an acre on 80 acres.
• 2:57
  SPEAKER_01: Is that right?
• 2:58
  SPEAKER_01: Oh, there we go.
• 2:58
  SPEAKER_01: I got it a little bigger in the screen.
• 3:00
  SPEAKER_01: And uh, let's go through these here.
• 3:02
  SPEAKER_01: I want to start in the beginning because I didn't I didn't have it on the screen real nice, but I'm getting it pretty.
• 3:07
  SPEAKER_01: Okay, we got our drop map, that's what people can see.
• 3:10
  SPEAKER_01: We got the land talker monthly, acres auctioned in Iowa.
• 3:14
  SPEAKER_01: These are the August month.
• 3:16
  SPEAKER_01: You were saying that it's down, it was way down, but coming in September, we pop up from six, seven thousand.
• 3:22
  SPEAKER_01: Okay, you got your land hero, that's the the digit software of all this stuff going on.
• 3:27
  SPEAKER_01: Now we get to the good stuff because this is kind of like the best of August, the end September, but uh come October 1st or 2nd, you'll release this again and we'll we'll jump back on here.
• 3:36
  SPEAKER_01: Yep, yep.
• 3:37
  SPEAKER_01: The question everyone wants to ask is with corn markets down, are people still buying land?
• 3:43
  SPEAKER_01: And I think the answer is yes, isn't it?
• 3:45
  SPEAKER_00: Absolutely are the market is incredibly stable.
• 3:48
  SPEAKER_00: You know, as I measured my auction data, you know, we're down a little bit, but not very much.
• 3:55
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, we're talking like one percent from the from January up till now.
• 4:01
  SPEAKER_00: So I consider that a stable market.
• 4:03
  SPEAKER_01: I can't I call that a win when you look at how much commodity prices are down and how high expenses are uh versus that.
• 4:11
  SPEAKER_01: A few episodes ago you had told me that you were a little surprised how much land was coming to auction from well, obviously there's a natural progression of people dying, but you also said divorce, and that that kind of caught us off guard.
• 4:23
  SPEAKER_01: You said, you know, there's been a lot of people getting divorced, and that land's getting auctioned off.
• 4:29
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, there's there was it seemed like there was an uptick in divorce cases.
• 4:33
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know why, but uh, but like right now.
• 4:40
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 4:41
  SPEAKER_00: Well, one thing that I'm hearing a lot about in the news media now is you know, there's some financial stress out here.
• 4:47
  SPEAKER_00: Absolutely.
• 4:49
  SPEAKER_00: And so there's some of those auctions where that there was some being auctioned because of financial stress.
• 4:58
  SPEAKER_00: But one thing I want to point out, there's not enough acres that's hitting the market because of that to you know flood the market with acres.
• 5:06
  SPEAKER_00: We're still you know running pretty low on acres going to auction.
• 5:11
  SPEAKER_00: So the market's eating those acres up, and you know, that that's not a problem right now.
• 5:18
  SPEAKER_00: Now it could be going in the future, but right now the market's just you know what little bit there is coming to the market because of financial stress, uh, it's just getting ate up by other farmers.
• 5:31
  SPEAKER_01: And there are the haves and have nots right now in agriculture, Jim.
• 5:35
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, there's people who have the money and the people who don't, and you're seeing a little bit of everything, right?
• 5:42
  SPEAKER_00: Absolutely.
• 5:42
  SPEAKER_00: That's that's how I would call this.
• 5:44
  SPEAKER_00: There's haves and have nots.
• 5:45
  SPEAKER_00: You know, 84% of the farmland in Iowa carries no debt.
• 5:49
  SPEAKER_00: Those are the haves.
• 5:50
  SPEAKER_01: Amazing statistic.
• 5:52
  SPEAKER_01: Just amazing statistic, yeah.
• 5:54
  SPEAKER_00: That's that's under that the land is undercapitalized in Iowa, and I'm sure it's that in other states around Iowa too.
• 6:02
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, that's interesting.
• 6:03
  SPEAKER_00: But you know, with that strong equity positions, it's gonna take something to you know to to really affect the market.
• 6:12
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, not saying it couldn't happen, but you know, in the 80s, you know, there's people carrying a lot more debt than they are now.
• 6:19
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, it's different.
• 6:20
  SPEAKER_00: It's different.
• 6:21
  SPEAKER_01: Hey, I'm sure you heard the news.
• 6:22
  SPEAKER_01: You heard about the Trump bucks, right?
• 6:24
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I did.
• 6:25
  SPEAKER_00: I did the first thing I thought is like, oh, we're gonna have another run-up in land prices.
• 6:30
  SPEAKER_01: Ah, the old Trump bucks, ring the bell, ring the bell.
• 6:33
  SPEAKER_01: I love that graphic there.
• 6:34
  SPEAKER_01: The old Trump bucks.
• 6:36
  SPEAKER_01: You also probably heard that they might be we might be closing down Washington, D.C., right?
• 6:41
  SPEAKER_01: I hadn't heard that yet.
• 6:42
  SPEAKER_01: Tell me about it.
• 6:43
  SPEAKER_01: Well, we may have a shutdown.
• 6:44
  SPEAKER_01: And uh apparently, yeah, yeah, you know, we spend too much money, but we're gonna give away more money.
• 6:49
  SPEAKER_01: We helped Argentina this week.
• 6:51
  SPEAKER_01: That was weird in itself.
• 6:52
  SPEAKER_01: Not that we shouldn't help people, but uh we really did the Argentine farmers a big favor.
• 6:58
  SPEAKER_01: But uh it is what it is, you know.
• 6:59
  SPEAKER_01: America's uh a fun and interesting place with that.
• 7:03
  SPEAKER_01: If they give away Trump bucks, that probably just floats more money.
• 7:06
  SPEAKER_01: Sometimes they say when they give away money like that, the money gets put in the wrong hands.
• 7:10
  SPEAKER_01: Like, sure, the farmer gets it, but they immediately pay off debt, do this, do that.
• 7:14
  SPEAKER_01: Like it just flows, right?
• 7:15
  SPEAKER_01: Ag retail says, Oh, they just got a payment, we don't need to lower prices.
• 7:20
  SPEAKER_00: Oh, absolutely, absolutely.
• 7:21
  SPEAKER_00: As a matter of fact, I was gonna tell you, yes, sir, I've gotten a little uh uh cash rent data, and there's no change from last year.
• 7:29
  SPEAKER_00: Uh haven't no change from last year.
• 7:31
  SPEAKER_01: Some of that'll catch people surprised, yeah.
• 7:34
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, yeah.
• 7:35
  SPEAKER_00: And now how do how do I explain that?
• 7:37
  SPEAKER_00: Because expenses, you know, fertilizer prices are said to be going up, you know, because of tariffs or what have you.
• 7:43
  SPEAKER_00: I can't explain it.
• 7:45
  SPEAKER_00: You know, corn prices have been essentially cut in half, or almost cut in half from the peak in 2022.
• 7:53
  SPEAKER_00: I can't explain it, other than there's just strong hands out here, strong equity positions out here in rural, and there's some that's not the the the heavy cash renters, those farmers who cash rent a lot of land, I would say those are the ones that have not.
• 8:13
  SPEAKER_01: It's a challenge, it's a challenge out there.
• 8:16
  SPEAKER_01: All right, we got your information up here.
• 8:17
  SPEAKER_01: This is the end of September.
• 8:19
  SPEAKER_01: We're gonna have another land talker coming out in a week.
• 8:21
  SPEAKER_01: We had skipped a month, but it sounds like we picked a good month to skip.
• 8:24
  SPEAKER_01: How do people get a hold of you?
• 8:26
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, so you can go to our website, w.ioappraisal.com, and pick up the get subscribe to the newsletter.
• 8:35
  SPEAKER_00: Land Hero is a as a software that you can access my sale database.
• 8:39
  SPEAKER_00: If you're uh a buyer and looking to buy land and you need uh fast market data, land hero is your answer.
• 8:49
  SPEAKER_00: So I love it.
• 8:50
  SPEAKER_00: So that that's that's how you can get a hold of me.
• 8:53
  SPEAKER_01: All right, sounds good.
• 8:54
  SPEAKER_01: Well, this time you're Safi with the Eggable Podcast, Mr.
• 8:57
  SPEAKER_01: Jim.
• 8:57
  SPEAKER_01: And then you have a podcast yourself that can catch out on uh YouTube, right?
• 9:01
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, Land Talker TV.
• 9:02
  SPEAKER_00: I interview people TV.
• 9:05
  SPEAKER_00: I like the way that sounds.
• 9:06
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, yeah.
• 9:08
  SPEAKER_00: So I've got uh several interviews on there.
• 9:11
  SPEAKER_00: I'm getting ready, I'm lining up some more interviews and uh get those posted.
• 9:15
  SPEAKER_01: Excellent.
• 9:16
  SPEAKER_01: All right.
• 9:17
  SPEAKER_01: We will catch you in another week.
• 9:19
  SPEAKER_01: We'll be right back.
• 9:20
  SPEAKER_01: Don't change that channel, but send people this video.
• 9:23
  SPEAKER_01: I think they'll like it with that.
• 9:24
  SPEAKER_01: It's been a short August in review, land acres, acres auction.
• 9:29
  SPEAKER_01: We're down, but don't worry, September will be one to remember, and it sounds like October is gonna be even better.
• 9:35
  SPEAKER_01: Keep an eye out for those trump bucks.
• 9:37
  SPEAKER_01: I'll catch you next week, Mr.
• 9:38
  SPEAKER_01: Jim.
• 9:39
  SPEAKER_01: Thank you, Tommy.