Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / US Jobs Data *Just* Out // Stocks Flip + Stock Market News 16 May 2024

Transcript

US Jobs Data *Just* Out // Stocks Flip + Stock Market News 16 May 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Felix here and good morning to you from the south of France.
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: You can see the struggle is real.
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: The sky is blue.
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: What have we got in store today for you?
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: We've got job stage round.
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: We've got Buffett's secret stocks out, we've got what hedge funds are doing and, just generally, is this market bonanza going to last?
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: What should we be doing in this moment?
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: What should we be buying right now?
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: Those are the things I want to cover, and, of course, this is live.
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: So ask questions in the chat after you've hit the like button.
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: Otherwise, your question will go into the incinerator straight away and I will share my screen with you here, because it's probably slightly better than a backlit me, and show you what it looks like when you work on a laptop.
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: And this is the big story out this morning jobless claims.
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: Why does it matter?
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: Well, if there is more unemployment, the Fed can now cut interest rates.
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: The Fed's job is allegedly to keep unemployment low.
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: So employment high and inflation low.
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: That's the idea, right, that's kind of the idea.
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: So what have they done?
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: Well, they got inflation up by printing 40% more money, but don't tell anybody.
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: They don't want you to know that.
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: And for some strange reason, unemployment is really low Nothing to do with data manipulation, promise.
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: So we want the unemployment to go up and therefore they'll be able to lower interest rates.
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: Lower interest rates means stocks to the moon, which is, of course, what we're all here for.
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: So the initial jobless claim today out 220,000, which is yeah, it's not bad, it's not a big deal which is yeah, it's not bad, it's not a big deal, but continuing jobless claims came in at 1.794 million, which is higher than even the highest forecasts.
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: So that is good news for us, not so good news for the people who got laid off.
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: But then, this is a cold-hearted capitalist system, apparently, that we live in, and there's a bunch more.
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: The Philly Fed business conditions have worsened.
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: Why am I marking this as green?
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: Because, again, slowdown in the economy is good news at this particular juncture of time.
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: Unemployment, according to the Philly Fed, is also decreasing, as are new orders.
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: Fed is also decreasing, as are new orders, and prices paid, which is an inflation measure, is also coming down.
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: So overall, this is a pretty good sweet jobs and data read here this morning.
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: So would you expect the market to go hallelujah?
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: Well, a little bit, and it's a little hard to make this out because it's so bloody bright out here.
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: But yeah, qqq is up 0.6% here this morning and pre-market looks like this.
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: Not a massive move today.
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: Nvidia is green.
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: Everything else is basically flat.
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: I mean, okay, meta is down a percent, but the rest of the market is pretty much flat.
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: Tesla at 0%.
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: Walmart's up 6%.
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: Apparently, wealthier Americans are flogging to Walmart to see what you can get there Apparently anything from shotguns to gold bars and they're thinking this is glorious.
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: Now what does that say to me?
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: To me, that actually says that the upper middle class of Americans are looking to save money and that actually signals a slow down in the economy.
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: To me.
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: That's just my take on it.
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: So I think Walmart's sales going up from the upper middle classes now pillaging their stores is another indicator.
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: The economy is actually slowing, which we would expect.
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: Now, why would we expect that?
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: Because the Feds raised interest rates very, very, very significantly, and the Fed is always too late when they cut rates.
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: It's just inevitable they are always too late.
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: And why are they too late?
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: They wait for the data to show them the slowdown.
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: Now the data comes in with a lag.
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: Once the data is in, we've already had the slowdown, then they cut, then we get a recession.
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: They don't really learn.
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: They are old men.
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: We can't really ask much more of them.
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: So that's kind of what's going on there Now.
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: What I'm also super excited about is this funky little screenshot.
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: So, on Options Watch, I've been teasing you for about two weeks now that we have an indicator coming out which I think we will just call Trend Alert, because that's exactly what it is, and I got an email today, which I took a screenshot of, from us at Options Watch, which is a draft email that'll look a little bit fancier when it comes out to you which will give us every single day the stocks where we see that trend has changed bullish and bearish and I think this is going to save us so much freaking time looking for trades and looking for opportunities.
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: I'm very excited by it.
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: And the indicator is based on basically a proprietary system of indicators.
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: We look at about 10, 15 different sets of indicators and how they work together, and this is pretty much what I did when I was working in banking.
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: I built a massive spreadsheet with an absurd amount of data and I combined all the signals together and only when certain ones were flagging together would we then look at the stock and then potentially recommend it as a trade to the sales guys.
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: So this is coming up very, very shortly.
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: If you want to get yourself a free 30-day trial to this, you will start to get emails, hopefully within a I'd like to say tomorrow, but I should probably say next week, just to be a little cautious on it, because with IT you never quite know what's going to happen.
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: But yeah, we should be getting these out from next week and it's going to save us a ton of time.
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: And Snowflake, for example, is on there today, which makes a lot of sense if you look at the Snowflake chart.
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: So I also went back over a lot of data to see that this actually works and good, and we've been working on this for like over a year.
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: So very, very, very excited to see that out.
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: So options, watch out.
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: I hope there's literally a free 30-day trial and then you'll be getting those alerts into your inbox for free and that you know if you're an idiot and you just take that as a blind buy and sell recommendation, you're an idiot and I know you're not.
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: So take it as an indicator and look at it.
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: Do your own research, come to your own conclusions and be cautious and careful.
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: Now there's one other thing I need to do Consume this.
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: This is what I live off, apparently.
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: I used to laugh when I first went to the US I was like 12 years old and I saw people take this quantity of supplements.
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: I thought what a bunch of nitwits.
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: And now I'm doing this, which is kind of ironic, isn't it?
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: So whatever I laugh at, I typically end up doing, and I kind of see that.
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: So what are we taking here today?
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: We're taking antioxidants.
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: We're taking vegetarian collagens made of egg shells, we're taking omega-3s and this is Q10.
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: Again, most of the essentially to keep you healthier.
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: The whole thing is intended to keep you healthier.
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: Nothing fun in there, sadly, there we go, choked on the supplements, death by supplement.
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: I don't have a credit card.
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: Seriously, king, no credit card and a screen name that's called King.
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: You're just going to have to get yourself a credit card.
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: George says options watch will be the bomb.
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: Yeah, you've got no idea what we've got planned.
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: No, it's going to be amazing.
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: It already is pretty amazing, but it's getting better every week and every day, and I appreciate that Felix is technically unemployed.
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: I certainly am.
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: You know what, when I left law school and I went off to Asia for about a year and I had friends at law school who said to me I had friends at law school who said to me well, go and sign up for unemployment benefit.
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: And I'm like you have to be joking, right, we have jobs with a law firm signed up who paid for my law school.
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: I basically have a guaranteed income coming up whenever I want.
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: Why would I claim unemployment?
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: They're like are you entitled to it?
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: And for me that was a real like okay, I need to remove some friends off the friends list here.
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: I really don't get that mentality.
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: So, yes, of course I am unemployed technically, but I would not go down that route.
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: I'm not getting the option to watch emails, amy.
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: Nobody is.
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: I'm so far the only one getting it and the developers.
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: So no, they'll be coming out.
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: I would like to say sometime next week.
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: We are just finalizing the design of that and so on.
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: The important part is the data or the backend of it, and then, once the emails work well, we will also be putting that on the stock chart inside OptionsWatch and we'll do a screener and stuff like that, bit by bit.
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: Let me see what you guys got going on here in the chat.
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: Let me see what you guys got going on here in the chat.
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: Soroki is saying is it correct that hedge funds pay brokers to hold trades from retail investors?
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: Well, it's the SEC or the stock exchange that holds trades when the moves are too big.
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: Most brokers sell their data and their order flow, so your orders to bigger players, hedge funds like Citadel and so on.
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: So do they have influence?
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: Undue influence?
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: Arguably yes, but officially, of course, no, no, no, it's all above board trading options in the uk, says paul.
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: Any key differences?
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: Not really.
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: No, no, I mean most of our uk students trade us options and they use interactive brokers or tasty as the two brokers out there in a sip.
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: I believe you can trade in a sip I.
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: I had actually had a conversation, funnily enough, with a, with a Brit, two days ago about that.
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: So it does seem you can actually do spreads in a SIP.
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: You just need to be with the right SIP provider.
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: There we go, have a SIP, sip for you Americans out there.
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: There is a sort of Roth IRA in the UK Drill into PayPal, a.
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: I appreciate that.
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: I was actually going to work on a PayPal video today or tomorrow.
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: Where's your favorite place to live in the world, says Shane.
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: I don't think there is one perfect place.
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: I love living in Hong Kong.
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: I love being down here in the south of France.
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: I'm probably off to London in a week or two.
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: I love being there too.
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: All for different reasons and all that offer different things, and I think probably picking two or three places to live is kind of the sweet spot.
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: But I do like to be in one place most of the time because I like being with my animals and it just sort of feels a bit more homely.
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: But I think having a base and then hopping around from there, for me at least, is a sweet spot.
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: I know people who move every three or four months and I think I find that a little unsettling.
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: So for me it's more like base Hong Kong and then I come here and travel around and go to places in Asia and Japan and Philippines and London and South of France.
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: What about the Buffett stock Chop?
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that's an interesting topic.
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: Thanks for getting us off where we're stuck here right now.
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: Let me just flip the screen again over here.
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: So, yeah, chop.
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: Basically, I will put out a full video on that later as well, with all the data and all the reasons and everything and how he's been able to keep that trade a secret.
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: I think, from top level reading, chop's a good stock, I mean.
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: The numbers are pretty impressive.
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: You can see why he's buying it.
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: You can see why likes it.
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: Uh, the the whole secrecy thing is um, it's just, it's just.
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: I mean, it's just the way the market is, isn't it?
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: It's, it's not a level playing field, folks.
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: It never will be.
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: Take it for what it is and focus on making money rather than focus on being outraged.
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: That's the way I would look at that.
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: Walmart sales are up as wealthier shoppers flock to the retailer, which, um, that combined with them selling more staples and less, you know, large tvs and, uh, machine guns.
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: That's a joke.
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: Um says to me that the consumer is getting more cautious.
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: The consumer is starting to realize, hey, the economy isn't as good as papa biden would like you to believe, and therefore I think, yes, it's good news, but I would see the US consumer slowing down quite significantly going forward.
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: We had a lot of Fed speak as well yesterday and today Jamie Dimon, the JP Morgan CEO always a bearer of good news.
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: I see a lot of inflationary forces in front of us.
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: He's a funny one.
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: Well, you know what?
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: He'd like interest rates to stay higher.
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: You know why?
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: Because his bank make I don't know what.
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: How many billion do they make on net interest income?
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: Jp Morgan, 23 billion in the last quarter.
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: So they make 100 billion a year of your deposits because interest rates are so high.
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: So you can see why he's saying watch out for inflation, when really look at this trueflation indicator.
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: This is non-government data.
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: This is privately collected data of actual items in the real world.
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: 2.3% is the inflation at present in the US.
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: So do we need to worry about inflation?
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: I kind of think not.
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: I kind of think we don't need to, but that's just my particular view here.
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: Pre-market flat, I would say flat as a pancake really Nothing particularly to worry about there.
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: The jobs data coming in a little higher is supportive, I would say Useful even.