Latest / Bloomberg Intelligence / Paramount Extends Tender Offer for Warner Bros. Shares
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- 0:24Speaker 2: You know, need some more news today on this Warner
- 0:26Speaker 2: Brothers Discovery transaction.
- 0:27Speaker 3: Again. Netflix is bidding here. They've got their bid in there.
- 0:30Speaker 2: They just amended that to make it on all cash bid,
- 0:32Speaker 2: and Paramount Skuydants is also there and they just kind
- 0:35Speaker 2: of extended their deadline today for trying to get some
- 0:37Speaker 2: shares tendered.
- 0:37Speaker 3: I don't know, but so far it's not been good
- 0:39Speaker 3: for them.
- 0:40Speaker 2: I don't know. I don't know what's going on there.
- 0:41Speaker 3: But let's talk to Semashaw.
- 0:42Speaker 2: She's a pro with this stuff, vice president Research and
- 0:45Speaker 2: Insights at Censor Tower STEMA. Are you surprised that, I
- 0:49Speaker 2: don't know, either Netflix or Paramount SKUIDANTCE hasn't raised their offer.
- 0:53Speaker 3: We kind of just seem to be waiting here.
- 0:56Speaker 4: Yeah.
- 0:57Speaker 5: Well, I'm more surprised that Paramount has a simply because
- 1:00Speaker 5: I think they need the merger more based on their performance.
- 1:04Speaker 5: They are significantly smaller, like four percent of monthly actor
- 1:08Speaker 5: users share on a global basis compared to forty eight
- 1:11Speaker 5: percent for Netflix and ten percent for HBO max very
- 1:15Speaker 5: small percentage of ott AD revenue four percent again versus
- 1:19Speaker 5: eight percent for Netflix and like thirty thirty five percent
- 1:22Speaker 5: for Hulu. So for them, this deal would be much
- 1:25Speaker 5: more transformative. Right, and HBO has those tent pole shows
- 1:31Speaker 5: like White Lotus and now like Heated Robbery that are
- 1:33Speaker 5: in the zeitgeist and make people continue to remain subscribers.
- 1:39Speaker 2: Right.
- 1:39Speaker 5: Netflix already has the highest retention rate for them, the
- 1:43Speaker 5: HBO acquisition is an opportunity to extend their growth rapidly,
- 1:48Speaker 5: like internationally where HBO is growing at a much faster
- 1:51Speaker 5: rate than anyone else. So I'm actually more surprised that
- 1:53Speaker 5: Paramount has it. But from what I've read also, the
- 1:56Speaker 5: Warner brother shareholders do not want that deal, so it
- 2:00Speaker 5: would have to probably be a substantial jump in price
- 2:03Speaker 5: to get over ninety percent of the shareholders to change
- 2:06Speaker 5: their mind.
- 2:07Speaker 6: So Paramount of Skydance State extending its tender offer for
- 2:11Speaker 6: those Warner Brothers' shares. The new offer expires February twentieth,
- 2:15Speaker 6: does this change anything. I mean roughly, I mean about
- 2:20Speaker 6: one hundred and sixty eight and a half million shares
- 2:22Speaker 6: have been tendered as of yesterday. That's only seven percent
- 2:25Speaker 6: of Warner Brothers shares outstanding. So does pushing out the
- 2:28Speaker 6: deadline actually mean it's going to get more support?
- 2:33Speaker 5: I don't think so. I don't think the delay is
- 2:35Speaker 5: simply because people haven't had a chance to tender their shares.
- 2:39Speaker 5: I just don't think that they find the offer as compelling.
- 2:42Speaker 5: And also, Warner Brothers management is sided with Netflix, right,
- 2:46Speaker 5: It's a well capitalized business, highest retention rate, you know,
- 2:51Speaker 5: content creation machine, especially on a global basis, you know,
- 2:56Speaker 5: non English language content, and so I think it's just
- 2:58Speaker 5: really hard for Amount, it's so much smaller to compete
- 3:01Speaker 5: with it. Like what does it bring to the table
- 3:04Speaker 5: for Warner Brothers which And I think that's the question.
- 3:08Speaker 2: And if Paramount does not get it, and you suggest
- 3:11Speaker 2: that you know, they probably need it, it's a mustag
- 3:13Speaker 2: versus maybe a nice to have for Netflix. What happens
- 3:16Speaker 2: you think the Paramount? If they don't get this deal,
- 3:18Speaker 2: then what do they do?
- 3:20Speaker 5: Well? I mean I think you just pushed them further
- 3:22Speaker 5: to the margin, right, as I said, they only have
- 3:25Speaker 5: like four percent of active user share on a global basis,
- 3:28Speaker 5: just to put that in perspective. Obviously, Netflix is the
- 3:30Speaker 5: belhema that forty eight percent. Amazon and Disney Plus are
- 3:34Speaker 5: about fifteen percent. So I'm not sure how they continue
- 3:37Speaker 5: to really grow. They would have to really change their model.
- 3:40Speaker 5: How are they going to grow internationally? Are they going
- 3:42Speaker 5: to try to get more sports, They're going to have
- 3:44Speaker 5: local language content. All of those endeavors to grow and
- 3:47Speaker 5: become larger require a lot of funding, right for sports,
- 3:51Speaker 5: right its content creation. So I feel like they'll sort
- 3:55Speaker 5: of still be on the periphery in many cases compared
- 3:58Speaker 5: to the larger streamers, and as a whole, by the way,
- 4:01Speaker 5: the entire space is all still competing with short form
- 4:03Speaker 5: video and just simply people's attention being pulled in other directions, right,
- 4:08Speaker 5: So I think that's kind of where that leaves them
- 4:12Speaker 5: if they don't get the deal.
- 4:13Speaker 6: So SIMA Sensor Tower is a digital market intelligence platform.
- 4:19Speaker 6: You provide data, analytics insights into the mobile app ecosystem.
- 4:23Speaker 6: What does your research what does your data show about
- 4:25Speaker 6: people's engagement with Warner Brothers properties? I mean beyond HBO,
- 4:30Speaker 6: the other stuff, and I guess that includes the cable
- 4:34Speaker 6: networks that Warner Brothers wants to spin off, that Paramountain
- 4:38Speaker 6: wants to buy, and that Netflix doesn't. And you know,
- 4:41Speaker 6: how does that compare to say what Netflix offers people.
- 4:45Speaker 5: Well, Netflix has the highest retention rate across the space,
- 4:50Speaker 5: right seventy four percent of its users are retained users.
- 4:53Speaker 5: People spend about ninety one minutes per week eleven sessions
- 4:57Speaker 5: per week on Netflix. In comparison, it's about six point
- 5:01Speaker 5: four sessions per week on Paramount. And so you know,
- 5:05Speaker 5: HBO is sort of in the middle. Our data is
- 5:08Speaker 5: really focused on the digital side of the business versus
- 5:12Speaker 5: any linear TV and then also our advertising data. So
- 5:18Speaker 5: I think what is also very attractive about HBO is
- 5:22Speaker 5: its advertising and the space of the categories that it's
- 5:25Speaker 5: in where it has decent share about five four percent
- 5:29Speaker 5: in healthcare, which is the largest category where OTT is
- 5:33Speaker 5: the largest channel for healthcare, and Netflix doesn't have that
- 5:38Speaker 5: much exposure there. So I think that is a plus
- 5:41Speaker 5: for them. As far as like Warnerbug Sorry, Paramount wanting
- 5:45Speaker 5: the other assets, I think it goes kind of goes
- 5:47Speaker 5: back with like they want to get what they can get,
- 5:50Speaker 5: so they can see how they can manage to figure
- 5:52Speaker 5: out how to grow their own business, right, So I
- 5:55Speaker 5: think that's why they're willing to take everything rather than
- 5:58Speaker 5: sort of curate what like the way Netflix is.
- 6:01Speaker 2: You know, the Netflix stock is down ten percent this
- 6:03Speaker 2: year and twelve percent over the trailing twelve months. Is
- 6:05Speaker 2: that kind of the market saying, hey, you know, I'm
- 6:08Speaker 2: not sure we want you guys to buy this thing.
- 6:12Speaker 5: Well, it also has done very well in the past.
- 6:15Speaker 5: It might be, or maybe it's just simply the uncertainty
- 6:18Speaker 5: of whether, even if they get the deal, if they'll
- 6:20Speaker 5: be able to get through antitrust, you know, the FTC,
- 6:24Speaker 5: will there be any issues getting the deal through? So
- 6:27Speaker 5: I feel like it's more about that and maybe just
- 6:30Speaker 5: the general idea that across streaming time spent is down,
- 6:34Speaker 5: and it goes back to what I said about distractions
- 6:37Speaker 5: for the consumer from short form video and other types
- 6:40Speaker 5: of technology that's taking time. So I think it might
- 6:44Speaker 5: be that sort of the deal with regulation and then
- 6:47Speaker 5: just sort of what's happening in streaming and the cost
- 6:50Speaker 5: of streaming. To get the content that gets the most
- 6:53Speaker 5: the highest audience costs a lot of money, right, and
- 6:55Speaker 5: they have a lot of competitors, including the microdramas that
- 7:00Speaker 5: you know have been growing very rapidly.
- 7:02Speaker 1: Stay with us.
- 7:03Speaker 3: More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this.
- 7:09Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live
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- 7:23Speaker 2: Lots of earnings kind of get you know, overshadowed a
- 7:26Speaker 2: little bit by on the news flow coming out of Davilas.
- 7:28Speaker 2: But you know, one of the big American companies that
- 7:29Speaker 2: we like to follow, General Electric, reported some numbers.
- 7:33Speaker 3: A little bit disappointed. I thought they were pretty good.
- 7:35Speaker 2: But the stock's down about five and a half percent today,
- 7:38Speaker 2: and the stock is up over the tre past twelve months,
- 7:40Speaker 2: up about sixty percent sixty zero, So maybe given back
- 7:43Speaker 2: a little bit there. But let's break it down here.
- 7:44Speaker 2: What's going on with our friends at GE. SID Philip Bloomberg,
- 7:47Speaker 2: chief correspondent covers Global Aviation for Bloomberg News. SID talk
- 7:51Speaker 2: to us about GE. What's going on with that story?
- 7:53Speaker 2: They report its earnings?
- 7:54Speaker 7: Yeah, so GE's actually they reported better than expected results.
- 7:57Speaker 7: In the fourth quarter. But unfortunately for the company, the
- 8:02Speaker 7: shareholders and the investors were expecting a much higher expectation
- 8:06Speaker 7: for the full yer next year this year, and so
- 8:09Speaker 7: the fullier outlook has underwhelmed investors, which is why the
- 8:12Speaker 7: share stumbled. And so they said that earnings will be
- 8:15Speaker 7: seven ten to seven forty a share, and that sort
- 8:18Speaker 7: of compares with about seven to ten which is what
- 8:20Speaker 7: the analyst expected. But that's still sort of they're talking
- 8:23Speaker 7: about how there's going to be low double digit percentage
- 8:25Speaker 7: of revenue growth, and that sort of after the sort
- 8:29Speaker 7: of daring performance that they've had over the last year
- 8:33Speaker 7: year and a half, that that sort of comes up
- 8:35Speaker 7: as a break for the stock.
- 8:37Speaker 2: What I like about GE or just fascinating watching the
- 8:41Speaker 2: GE story over the past twenty years. They've dramatically slimmed
- 8:44Speaker 2: down the company. They were just jillions of different businesses,
- 8:47Speaker 2: including one of the biggest financial services companies in the world.
- 8:50Speaker 3: They've slimmed that down to really a couple sectors.
- 8:52Speaker 2: Here, commercial engines and services number one, and then defense
- 8:56Speaker 2: and propulsion number two.
- 8:58Speaker 3: What's the play, Here's where's the growth for this company?
- 9:00Speaker 7: Yeah, so Larry Culp has sort of focused the company
- 9:03Speaker 7: on its core aerospace business, and aerospace has sort of
- 9:06Speaker 7: become what GE is and that's actually a really good
- 9:09Speaker 7: business for the company. I mean they have a large
- 9:12Speaker 7: sort of share of the narrow body marketplace.
- 9:14Speaker 3: I mean they make any engines.
- 9:15Speaker 7: Yeah, make engines with CFM, which is the biggest narrowbody
- 9:20Speaker 7: engine provider. They also make all the engines for Boeing's
- 9:24Speaker 7: white body aircraft. So they've got a big aerospace division
- 9:27Speaker 7: and that's sort of a business that continues to generate
- 9:29Speaker 7: revenue as you get those aircraft. These engines come in
- 9:32Speaker 7: for servicing and they come in for sort of overhauls.
- 9:35Speaker 7: That sort of keeps the revenue going. And so that's
- 9:37Speaker 7: where Culpus focused on. He's sort of focused on cutting
- 9:40Speaker 7: costs and as well as ramping up their aftermarket business
- 9:43Speaker 7: as well as their like their maintenance and repair operation,
- 9:46Speaker 7: and that's been one of the key businesses that they've
- 9:48Speaker 7: been growing. They've also been growing their defense business, and
- 9:51Speaker 7: I mean they're sort of getting a big share of
- 9:54Speaker 7: the overall defense by it. I mean that business may
- 9:57Speaker 7: come up against some investor resistance because of trump recent
- 10:00Speaker 7: announcements about gapping dividends and capping share.
- 10:04Speaker 2: By a back right, yeah, because I don't think of
- 10:06Speaker 2: G as a defense contractor like a Lockheed Martin or
- 10:09Speaker 2: something like that.
- 10:09Speaker 7: But they're not a defense prime. But they are a
- 10:11Speaker 7: major supplier to the defense industry.
- 10:14Speaker 2: On the engine side, on the jet engine side. Do
- 10:16Speaker 2: they sell to both Boeing and Airbus.
- 10:18Speaker 7: They sell to Airbus through CFM, which is their joint
- 10:21Speaker 7: venture with Saffron Ah, and so they about seventy five
- 10:25Speaker 7: percent of the overall narrow body market. So that's a
- 10:28Speaker 7: big percentage of the market.
- 10:29Speaker 3: That's awesome.
- 10:29Speaker 2: So, I mean, I always feel good seeing a GE
- 10:31Speaker 2: engine hanging on a wing.
- 10:32Speaker 3: You know, you feel like you're in good shape there.
- 10:35Speaker 2: Talk to us about just you know, we follow Boeing
- 10:37Speaker 2: very closely, and they've had their problems with the production,
- 10:40Speaker 2: as has Airbus. I mean, the whole supply chain for
- 10:43Speaker 2: aerospace and building these big jet engines. It's kind of
- 10:46Speaker 2: been tough on a global scale. What does G say
- 10:49Speaker 2: to say about that?
- 10:50Speaker 7: So, I mean that that's been one of the I mean,
- 10:52Speaker 7: Airbus famously called out G a couple of months ago,
- 10:54Speaker 7: saying that they weren't producing engine CFM wasn't producing engines
- 10:57Speaker 7: fast enough, and that's been a major sort of bottleneck
- 11:00Speaker 7: for the aviation industry as they come out of the pandemic.
- 11:03Speaker 7: I mean they've been struggling since the pandemic to actually
- 11:06Speaker 7: ramp up production. I mean air Bus had to cut
- 11:08Speaker 7: its annual outlook in December and they just about made
- 11:12Speaker 7: their target. And so we've seen the airspace the aerospace
- 11:17Speaker 7: businesses talking about sort of growth and then having to
- 11:21Speaker 7: come up against the reality of a supply chain and
- 11:23Speaker 7: the supply chain being severely constrained. At the same time,
- 11:27Speaker 7: all the suppliers, especially GE, RTX and others have been
- 11:31Speaker 7: focusing on maximizing their profitability and making sure that while
- 11:36Speaker 7: they grow and while they scale up their businesses, they
- 11:39Speaker 7: don't do that at the cost of profitability. And that
- 11:41Speaker 7: sort of runs into the airframers their ambition of ramping
- 11:46Speaker 7: up production so they won't growth at any cost, and
- 11:49Speaker 7: the suppliers are saying, hey, we will grow, but it
- 11:52Speaker 7: has to be profitable for us.
- 11:53Speaker 2: One of the things we've heard from Bowing is it's
- 11:56Speaker 2: just hard to find employees. This isn't like making a car.
- 12:00Speaker 2: You got to be really really skilled.
- 12:02Speaker 3: Does GE have that same issue?
- 12:04Speaker 7: It does, and that's the same issue that and it's
- 12:07Speaker 7: not just GE but also supplies the GEM. The problem
- 12:10Speaker 7: with the aerospace supply chain is that it's so intertwined
- 12:14Speaker 7: that you need every single path to build those parts
- 12:17Speaker 7: that you actually supply to Boeing and Airbus, and so
- 12:19Speaker 7: if one part's missing, then you can't actually put together
- 12:22Speaker 7: a net engine that goes onto a plane. And so
- 12:25Speaker 7: for the aerospace industry, hiring has been a major challenge,
- 12:29Speaker 7: and that's been something that they've been doing and they've
- 12:31Speaker 7: been trying to work on for the last couple of years.
- 12:34Speaker 7: But I don't think they're out of the woods yet.
- 12:36Speaker 3: Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this.
- 12:43Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live
- 12:47Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto
- 12:51Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you
- 12:54Speaker 1: get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
- 12:57Speaker 3: What a couple of three days.
- 13:00Speaker 2: And Davos kind of went into the week thinking maybe
- 13:02Speaker 2: we talked about big, big items like AI.
- 13:05Speaker 3: Well it all came down to Terrace Greenland and boy,
- 13:09Speaker 3: we've had a bumpy ride this week. So we try
- 13:11Speaker 3: to forget what's going on there.
- 13:12Speaker 2: Gota Maconda, he does his stuff for living, his a
- 13:14Speaker 2: lecture at the Yale School of Management. He's a Bloomberg
- 13:17Speaker 2: opinion contributor.
- 13:19Speaker 3: Got them, you know.
- 13:20Speaker 2: I guess this is a little bit of President Trump
- 13:23Speaker 2: starting off the week with some very big rhetoric and
- 13:26Speaker 2: then backing off a little bit. That's at least how
- 13:29Speaker 2: the markets have been kind of gauging it here. Has
- 13:33Speaker 2: there been any long term impact positive ord negative?
- 13:35Speaker 5: Here?
- 13:35Speaker 3: From what's happened the last several days.
- 13:38Speaker 4: There's been significant long term impact, and it's sadly all negative.
- 13:41Speaker 4: So let's just break this out. The framework that the
- 13:46Speaker 4: Trump administration is saying they have gotten. And it's to
- 13:49Speaker 4: be clear, it's not clear they have actually gotten it,
- 13:52Speaker 4: because the Europeans don't seem to be agreeing with that statement.
- 13:54Speaker 4: But let's say the Trump administration got everything they said
- 13:57Speaker 4: They got. Everything they said they got they could have
- 13:59Speaker 4: gotten with a phone call six months ago. Right like
- 14:03Speaker 4: if we had told the Danes we want to put
- 14:04Speaker 4: more bases in Greenland, we want more mineral rights in Greenland.
- 14:07Speaker 4: We want you to you know, do more to keep
- 14:09Speaker 4: the Chinese out of Greenland. Whatever, that means they would
- 14:12Speaker 4: have said, awesome, we love the idea of you doing that.
- 14:16Speaker 4: So there's no so like everything they got was on
- 14:19Speaker 4: the table just for the asking. The downside is we
- 14:24Speaker 4: have now reached a situation where the Prime Minister of Canada,
- 14:28Speaker 4: the United States is oldest, best, and most important ally
- 14:33Speaker 4: is saying that the United States is a predator that
- 14:36Speaker 4: is taking advantage of other countries, and that he needs
- 14:39Speaker 4: to make allies alliances with other countries, including China, judging
- 14:43Speaker 4: by his actions to protect himself from the United States. Like,
- 14:49Speaker 4: it's almost impossible to overstate the level of the damage there.
- 14:53Speaker 4: If the United States had somehow managed to extract ownership
- 14:58Speaker 4: of Greenland, that would not have been even close to
- 15:04Speaker 4: being worth destroying the trust that the United States has
- 15:08Speaker 4: built up with pretty much every other developed country in
- 15:12Speaker 4: the world over the course of more than a century.
- 15:17Speaker 6: You go ahead, no, no, no, So this trust that
- 15:19Speaker 6: the United States has built up, is it the trust
- 15:21Speaker 6: that the White House is now put you know, putting
- 15:24Speaker 6: at risk or this particular White House, I should say,
- 15:27Speaker 6: versus the US government overall, because in three years time,
- 15:31Speaker 6: in eight years time, you know, we could have a
- 15:34Speaker 6: very different government in charge, and do we go back
- 15:37Speaker 6: to the old ways.
- 15:39Speaker 4: Yeah, I think it started with this administration. And if
- 15:42Speaker 4: it had, and if it we were just talking about
- 15:44Speaker 4: one Trump administration, it would have been just that. And
- 15:46Speaker 4: then I think that's exactly what would happened. We would
- 15:48Speaker 4: have reset the old ways and everybody would have said, Look,
- 15:51Speaker 4: every country has a hiccop once in a while.
- 15:53Speaker 3: These things happen.
- 15:54Speaker 4: But now you will hear Europeans say straight up that
- 15:58Speaker 4: Trump is a reflection of some thing deep about what's
- 16:01Speaker 4: happening in the United States right now. That is, it
- 16:04Speaker 4: is not just the case that they do not trust
- 16:06Speaker 4: the Trump administration. It is they do not trust the
- 16:09Speaker 4: American public to not keep electing people like the Trump administration,
- 16:14Speaker 4: and that creates a completely different set of constraints and circumstances.
- 16:19Speaker 2: Are you surprised, I guess going down that thread Gotham
- 16:22Speaker 2: that we haven't heard really anything from members of Congress
- 16:27Speaker 2: over the past week or were the last year.
- 16:30Speaker 4: Even I wish I could say I was, but but
- 16:33Speaker 4: I'm not. And I think what's really striking is even
- 16:37Speaker 4: members of Congress who said that they are who are
- 16:39Speaker 4: not running for reelection, are still unwilling to criticize the
- 16:43Speaker 4: president directly with you know, like a tiny handful of exceptions,
- 16:46Speaker 4: but in the Revolican party. So even Fon Tillas, who's like,
- 16:49Speaker 4: I'm out right, like he said, i am not running
- 16:52Speaker 4: for reelection because I want to be able to speak
- 16:53Speaker 4: truth to Trump. The president Trump is saying, Hey, I
- 16:56Speaker 4: don't actually have any criticisms as the president. It's all
- 16:59Speaker 4: about his advisors. And just just be clear, like his
- 17:02Speaker 4: advisors are not the people pushing the Greenland on this.
- 17:06Speaker 4: You know, that appears to be sort of from within
- 17:08Speaker 4: the president, the from within the president's own head. And
- 17:11Speaker 4: so I'm not surprised, both because there's you know, his
- 17:14Speaker 4: control of the Republican Party's total and people want to
- 17:17Speaker 4: get re elected. But more than that, I think people
- 17:20Speaker 4: are scared, right Like, if you stand up to the president,
- 17:23Speaker 4: if you are seen as his enemy, you are deluged
- 17:27Speaker 4: by death threats and you know, things that are not
- 17:30Speaker 4: a normal part of American politics. In some sense, I
- 17:33Speaker 4: guess you could say that January sixth worked because there
- 17:36Speaker 4: are quite a few Republicans who are in fear for
- 17:38Speaker 4: their lives, not just their puular seats.
- 17:43Speaker 6: So got them, you know, Moving forward, with all of this,
- 17:46Speaker 6: I'm curious, you know, you mentioned Mark Carney and the
- 17:48Speaker 6: speech that he gave declaring there's a new world order here,
- 17:51Speaker 6: the old world order has ruptured. How does Europe respond
- 17:55Speaker 6: to this moment? Because they seem as disorganized and frankly
- 17:59Speaker 6: as weak as ever, and you know, when President Trump
- 18:01Speaker 6: pointed them as weak, it's hard to see how they
- 18:04Speaker 6: can come to agreement on how to stand up to him.
- 18:07Speaker 4: So so I mean, I would never I would never
- 18:11Speaker 4: underestimate the Europeans ability to fold under pressure. And I
- 18:14Speaker 4: like that is that, I mean that is but I
- 18:17Speaker 4: think first as you did see like they started to
- 18:20Speaker 4: put troops into Greenland, right, like that is not a
- 18:23Speaker 4: minor signal, right, I mean, so there's a lot of
- 18:26Speaker 4: like we are really starting to push back in that
- 18:28Speaker 4: way in a way that we hadn't seen before. And
- 18:30Speaker 4: I think if it had actually come down to an
- 18:32Speaker 4: American use of force, that has a clarifying right, you know,
- 18:36Speaker 4: as Oscar walt to the prospect of hanging clarifies the mind, right,
- 18:40Speaker 4: that I think would have solidified the Europeans together. And second,
- 18:43Speaker 4: the few gestures they did make, I mean it's very clear,
- 18:46Speaker 4: right the Trump administration has backed down, right. They made
- 18:49Speaker 4: lots of threats, they made lots of bluster, they got
- 18:51Speaker 4: nothing in their declaring victory.
- 18:52Speaker 3: That is a back down.
- 18:53Speaker 4: So they are they were backing down from from your
- 18:56Speaker 4: even what little counter push the Europeans did. But I
- 19:00Speaker 4: think what you will see is you'll start to see
- 19:02Speaker 4: real pushback on American companies, right because at this you know,
- 19:07Speaker 4: no European country could seriously look at American defense contractors
- 19:11Speaker 4: a trustworthy about the purchaser, right, Like Microsoft is already
- 19:14Speaker 4: facing pressure from Europeans because there's some things that it did.
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