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Ukraine expands strikes on Russia's shadow fleet · INSIGHT TODAY

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Ukraine says it has ramped up its attacks on ships
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: reportedly belonging to Russia's Shadow Fleet. Over night alone, the
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: military says it hit fourteen vessels in the Sea of
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: Azol with drones, including twelve tankers. According to the Ukrainian Army,
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: the vessels were being used to supply fuel to the
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: Russian military and to transport oil and petroleum products in
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: violation of international sanctions. That brings the total number of
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: vessels Ukraine has struck in the Sea of Asov and
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: the Black Sea to over to within the past four
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: days to thirty five. Let's bring in Christina Harward here.
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  Speaker 1: She's Russia Deputy team leader at the Institute for the
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: Study of War. Welcome to the program, Christina. What impact
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: are these attacks having on Russia.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it's really absolutely fascinating to watch how
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  Speaker 2: this strike campaign is unfolding the past couple of weeks,
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  Speaker 2: and we have this new element that we see now
• 1:01
  Speaker 2: in the past couple of days. Even so, really what's
• 1:04
  Speaker 2: happening here is Russia is attempting to find ways to
• 1:07
  Speaker 2: mitigate mitigate the problems that the Ukrainian strikes have caused
• 1:10
  Speaker 2: in the past few months. Including the wide scale gasoline
• 1:14
  Speaker 2: crisis that we've seen and occupied Ukraine and throughout Russia.
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  Speaker 2: So Russia now is trying to somehow find another way
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  Speaker 2: to get gasoline to the Peninsula of Cramea, and Ukraine
• 1:24
  Speaker 2: is seeing that and they're going after that effort as well.
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: Now, how do you explain this sudden rise in successful
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: Ukrainian attacks on Russia's so called shadow fleet. I mean,
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: that fleet's been around a while. Ukraine has had drones
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  Speaker 1: for quite a while. Why is this happening now?
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean so, I think there's probably a couple
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  Speaker 2: different elements here, but I think one to really draw
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  Speaker 2: out is if we look back the past couple of
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  Speaker 2: months in twenty twenty six, but even going into the
• 1:53
  Speaker 2: winter and potentially the fall of twenty twenty five, Ukraine
• 1:56
  Speaker 2: has been conducting a very extensive campaign against Russian air
• 2:00
  Speaker 2: defence systems as well as other infrastructure that support these
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  Speaker 2: systems like radars. So Ukrainians have really been blinding the
• 2:06
  Speaker 2: Russians in really significant areas, including in Crimea and in
• 2:10
  Speaker 2: occupied Ukraine. So that's really helped Ukraine create these corridors
• 2:14
  Speaker 2: where their drones and other projectiles can fly through with
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  Speaker 2: a pretty high success rate of actually hitting the target.
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  Speaker 2: So I'm sure that's one of the elements that is
• 2:23
  Speaker 2: helping Ukraine right now hit these vessels, is that the
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  Speaker 2: Russian air defense umbrella is pretty degraded insula in the
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  Speaker 2: Peninsula Crimea.
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  Speaker 1: So how is Russia responding to these attacks? I mean,
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  Speaker 1: normally Russia doesn't just sit back, It throws something back
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  Speaker 1: in return.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, absolutely, so, I think there's a couple different things
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  Speaker 2: going on. First, we have seen Vladimir Putin come out
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  Speaker 2: and acknowledge these pretty directly that he really had no
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  Speaker 2: other choice. The consequences were so wide scale across his
• 2:55
  Speaker 2: country he had to acknowledge them. Now, the main efforts
• 2:59
  Speaker 2: that we're seeing come out out of the Russian government. One,
• 3:01
  Speaker 2: they're really concerned about the effects on consumers, so we're
• 3:05
  Speaker 2: seeing efforts like them trying to work on price caps,
• 3:08
  Speaker 2: as well as intensifying efforts to make sure that the
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  Speaker 2: supplies to the gas stations, including the independent gas station companies,
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  Speaker 2: is more direct from the refineries themselves. Now in terms
• 3:19
  Speaker 2: of actually necessary defenses to prevent these strikes from happening
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  Speaker 2: in the first place, this is where the Russian response
• 3:26
  Speaker 2: is really lacking now. Vladimir Putin has himself stated last
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  Speaker 2: week that the Russian defense industrial base must boost its
• 3:33
  Speaker 2: production of air defenses. But that's not going to be
• 3:35
  Speaker 2: an easy task to accomplish overnight, particularly with the strike campaign.
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  Speaker 2: I just described where Ukraine's been knocking out these air
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  Speaker 2: defense systems left and right for the past few few
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  Speaker 2: months in occupied Ukraine and Russia. So not only now
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  Speaker 2: does Russia have to defend more and more areas of
• 3:52
  Speaker 2: its territory that Ukraine is now able to reach with
• 3:55
  Speaker 2: these new Ukrainian drones that can get fly farther than ever,
• 3:59
  Speaker 2: but they're also having to replace the air defenses that
• 4:01
  Speaker 2: Ukraine is knocking out.
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  Speaker 1: Christina State with us. I want to show you something
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  Speaker 1: else and ask you about it, because it's not just
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  Speaker 1: strikes on Russian ships. Ukraine has again attacked oil refineries
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  Speaker 1: and reservoirs in several parts of Russia. This video you're
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: seeing on your screen was released by Ukraine's President of
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: Vladimir Zelensky on social media. Russian President Vladimir Putin had
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: this to say about the Ukrainian attacks.
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  Speaker 3: It is obvious that the adversary seeks to damage the
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  Speaker 3: economy but more importantly, aims to create an atmosphere of
• 4:37
  Speaker 3: anxiety within society. We understand that this objective cannot be achieved.
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  Speaker 3: Russia's energy system possesses immense resilience, among the highest in
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  Speaker 3: the world.
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  Speaker 1: Community immense resilience, Christina, is is it true that Russia
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  Speaker 1: is resilient and enough to withstand these attacks over a
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: longer period.
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  Speaker 2: So I think they're definitely going to try to do
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  Speaker 2: that now. This is something we haven't seen Russia face
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  Speaker 2: so far in this war. In twenty twenty five, they
• 5:15
  Speaker 2: faced a similar gasoline crisis due to Ukrainian strikes against refineries,
• 5:19
  Speaker 2: but it happened that the end of the end of
• 5:21
  Speaker 2: the high summertime demand season, and it wasn't quite as
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  Speaker 2: extensive as the strike campaign was seeing this year. So
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  Speaker 2: this is definitely a new endeavor that Russia is having
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  Speaker 2: to undertake now. I would note that Vladimir Putin, obviously,
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  Speaker 2: in all of these speeches he's giving now about the crisis,
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  Speaker 2: he's definitely trying to posture Russian strength. If you look
• 5:40
  Speaker 2: and kind of read between the lines of some of
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  Speaker 2: the statements he's giving, he seemed to be trying to
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  Speaker 2: tell the Russian people that these are sacrifices that they
• 5:48
  Speaker 2: need to make, because what really matters is what's happening
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  Speaker 2: on the battlefield, where again Putin is projecting strength and
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  Speaker 2: continues to falsely claim that Russian is going to be
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  Speaker 2: able to achieve it's really wide sweeping battlefield objectives very quickly,
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  Speaker 2: which is by no means going to be an easy task.
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  Speaker 1: At this week's NATO summit in Turkey, Ukraine got backing
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  Speaker 1: for its long range strikes on Russia. Even US President
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  Speaker 1: Donald Trump said this could help end the war, bring
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  Speaker 1: it to a speedier conclusion. Do you think Ukraine has
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  Speaker 1: the capacity to continue pursuing this strategy?
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  Speaker 2: So I definitely think we can expect the Ukrainians to
• 6:32
  Speaker 2: continue this strike campaign, if not intensify it, because really
• 6:35
  Speaker 2: the thing that's going to potentially stop this campaign is
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  Speaker 2: if Russia is able to build up its defenses, which, again,
• 6:41
  Speaker 2: as I noted, producing the amount of air defenses in
• 6:44
  Speaker 2: the speed and the quantity that Russia really needs right
• 6:46
  Speaker 2: now is going to be very difficult, and it's really
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  Speaker 2: unclear of the Russian defense industrial base we'll be able
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  Speaker 2: to meet Putin's demands for that kind of boost so
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  Speaker 2: we've really seen Ukraine has increased its own domestic production
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  Speaker 2: of drone and its own domestically produced missiles that we
• 7:02
  Speaker 2: will likely continue to see the Ukrainians churn out day
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  Speaker 2: in and day out in order to be conducting these
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  Speaker 2: very large scale strikes with lots of drones and hitting
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  Speaker 2: targets over and over again.
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  Speaker 1: So do you see any signs that this could speed
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: up the end of the war to bring it to
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  Speaker 1: a conclusion as Trump suggested.
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  Speaker 2: So I think it's definitely going to get Putin thinking
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  Speaker 2: a little bit. But there's really no indication from Putin's
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  Speaker 2: statements as well as kind of other reports we're seeing
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  Speaker 2: in the open source from maybe sources within the Kremlin,
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  Speaker 2: to suggest that Putin has really changed his theory of victory. Now,
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  Speaker 2: Putin has stuck to this same theory for the past
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  Speaker 2: two years, and it's really predicated predicated on Putin's assumption
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  Speaker 2: that Russia just needs to outlast Ukraine and outlast Western
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  Speaker 2: support for Ukraine. Now, Putin is very focused on the
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  Speaker 2: battlefield where he does hope he'll be able to have
• 8:00
  Speaker 2: enough successes, or at least claim enough successes that he
• 8:03
  Speaker 2: can continue to push Donald Trump to force Ukraine to
• 8:07
  Speaker 2: capitulate at the negotiating table. So that being said, in
• 8:10
  Speaker 2: order to end the war and get Putin to actually
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  Speaker 2: come and sit down and engage in good faith negotiations
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  Speaker 2: that include compromises on both sides, you're going to need
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  Speaker 2: to change Putent's calculus, and I think right now the
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  Speaker 2: place to do that is going to be on the battlefield.
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  Speaker 2: So something we're definitely keeping an eye out for is
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  Speaker 2: how the different strike campaigns that Ukraine is conducting, both
• 8:30
  Speaker 2: in Russia and occupied Ukraine are going to have implications
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  Speaker 2: on the battlefield. We're starting to see some trickles of
• 8:36
  Speaker 2: those consequences, but we're definitely going to keep an eye
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  Speaker 2: out for as this matures even more.
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  Speaker 1: Christina, thank you very much. That was Christina Harward with
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  Speaker 1: the Institute for the Study of War.