Latest / Early Edition with Ryan Bridge / Geoffrey Miller: Geopolitical Analyst on Donald Trumps tariffs and what they mean for New Zealand

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Geoffrey Miller: Geopolitical Analyst on Donald Trumps tariffs and what they mean for New Zealand · Early Edition with Ryan Bridge

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: As promised, President Donald Trump has slapped tariffs on goods
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: coming from Canada, Mexico and China twenty five percent on
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: imports from Canada and Mexico, China's getting ten percent. All
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: three countries plan a counterattack. Canada has already done that,
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: albeit reluctantly. And so to talk about this, I am
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: joined by geopolitical analyst Jeffrey Miller.
• 0:19
  Speaker 2: Hello Jeffrey, Good morning, Andrew.
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: It's all on it's trade wars.
• 0:26
  Speaker 2: It is indeed, this is the beginning of a new
• 0:28
  Speaker 2: trade war, and it's just not going to be good
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  Speaker 2: for a country like New Zealand. There's an old African
• 0:33
  Speaker 2: proverb that says, when the elephants fight, the grass gets trampled.
• 0:36
  Speaker 2: I think that's applicable here.
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  Speaker 1: Very good. We'll talk about that more in a moment.
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: But it's going to affect America as well. There's an
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  Speaker 1: analysis by Ernest Young that suggests it will reduce UK
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: growth US growth should I say, by one point five
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  Speaker 1: percentage points this year, which you don't want. Canada and
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: Mexico will be thrown into recession and there will be
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: stagflation in all three countries. Do you think Americans and
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: Donald Trump truly understand the economic consequences.
• 1:03
  Speaker 2: No, I think we're in uncharted territory here. I don't
• 1:05
  Speaker 2: think we've been here really since the Great Depression. In
• 1:09
  Speaker 2: many ways, there are similar action taken back in nineteen
• 1:11
  Speaker 2: thirty ironically, and it does have, yes, does seem familiar
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  Speaker 2: in a sense from that time, because the tariffs that
• 1:20
  Speaker 2: Donald Trump placed on us during his first term we're
• 1:23
  Speaker 2: lower in nature. The tariff that he's promising now are
• 1:26
  Speaker 2: about three times the level. They're much broader based. There
• 1:29
  Speaker 2: aren't really the exceptions except for Canadian energy, which we'll
• 1:33
  Speaker 2: get a ten percent tariff ratherland twenty five percent. But
• 1:37
  Speaker 2: the tariffs on China's pretty much on everything. Ten percent
• 1:40
  Speaker 2: on all Chinese goods and twenty five percent all goods
• 1:44
  Speaker 2: from coming from Mexico. So it's a big play from
• 1:46
  Speaker 2: Donald Trump, and the markets don't like it. We're expecting
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: tumbles in the markets when they open on Monday, anywhere
• 1:52
  Speaker 2: between half and one percent. It could be more on
• 1:55
  Speaker 2: the days to come, and that might be the only
• 1:56
  Speaker 2: thing that possibly changes Donald Trump's mind.
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: Trudeau has laid out retaliatory tariffs and made it very
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: clear he's done so reluctantly. Mexico says they will follow.
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: So apparently America has retaliatory tariffs already ir regulated for
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  Speaker 1: so if you do that, it happens as fighting tariffs
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  Speaker 1: with tariff's a good move.
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  Speaker 2: Well, the fighting fire with fire and not backing down.
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  Speaker 2: I guess it's a game of brinksmanship here, and Justin
• 2:25
  Speaker 2: Trudeau will be betting on some kind of resolution, a
• 2:28
  Speaker 2: deal being done. Of course, Donald Trump loves the deal,
• 2:31
  Speaker 2: and he'll be hoping for much the same thing, because
• 2:34
  Speaker 2: in the end, this is being used as a powerplay.
• 2:37
  Speaker 2: It's being used that Donald Trump is putting these tariffs
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: in place under emergency legislation dating back to nineteen seventy seven,
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  Speaker 2: which is why he's got these reasons of sentinel and
• 2:47
  Speaker 2: illegal immigration as the reasons, because he needs a rationale
• 2:52
  Speaker 2: for doing this, and he's looking for concessions much in
• 2:55
  Speaker 2: the way that he got concessions from Columbia. Columbia had
• 2:58
  Speaker 2: to agree to take in those deportation flights, and he'll
• 3:02
  Speaker 2: be looking for similar kinds of concessions from Mexico and
• 3:06
  Speaker 2: Canada and getting the United States, as he would see it,
• 3:08
  Speaker 2: a better deal.
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  Speaker 1: So look what kind of message is this sending to
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: the world. Canada is a close ally of America. Look
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: at justin Trudeau's speech. He evoked all the fighting on
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  Speaker 1: the beaches and the wars and everything. You know, we
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: are a close friend, and yet they still have not
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: been spared. So does New Zealand need to be wary here?
• 3:28
  Speaker 2: Indeed, look the lesson here is that no one is immune.
• 3:30
  Speaker 2: If Donald Trump is willing to place tariff's on Canada,
• 3:35
  Speaker 2: he's also threatening to place tariffs on the EU, then
• 3:38
  Speaker 2: New Zealand. I don't think he's got any real protection.
• 3:41
  Speaker 2: New Zealand isn't a formal US allies, a bit more
• 3:43
  Speaker 2: distance than the likes of Canada and Australia the UK,
• 3:46
  Speaker 2: so I don't think New zeal would have any great immunity.
• 3:50
  Speaker 2: New Zealand exports sixteen billion New Zealand dollars worth of
• 3:54
  Speaker 2: goods and services to the US every year, even while
• 3:57
  Speaker 2: there are restrictions on what we export. New Zealand's still
• 4:00
  Speaker 2: the exports two and a half billion dollars worth of
• 4:03
  Speaker 2: beef and other meata exports to the US every year
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  Speaker 2: despite the being restrictions on it. I mean just that alone,
• 4:09
  Speaker 2: the meat exports that New Zealand sends to the US
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  Speaker 2: every year. That alone is about the entirety or even
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  Speaker 2: slightly more than what we export to the Golf region
• 4:19
  Speaker 2: every year. And we just signed that new free trade
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  Speaker 2: agreement always conclude in negotiations on that the end of
• 4:24
  Speaker 2: last year.
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  Speaker 1: Take it into account that we need to be wary.
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: The question is should we speak out about what's actually
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  Speaker 1: happening in the world right now? Would that be dangerous?
• 4:32
  Speaker 2: Well, that's a good question. Do you want to poke
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  Speaker 2: your head up above the parapet and speak out all
• 4:36
  Speaker 2: that just leads you to being clobbed. I think we're
• 4:38
  Speaker 2: going to be in Donald Trump's site anyway. As I say,
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  Speaker 2: if Canada and the EU are, then New Zealand can't
• 4:44
  Speaker 2: be far away because we've got even less protection less
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  Speaker 2: to offer, we're much smaller. I think probably the answer
• 4:50
  Speaker 2: at the moment is to keep our heads down and
• 4:51
  Speaker 2: work with diplomatic channel. So I think Winston Peter's the
• 4:54
  Speaker 2: Fire Minister, Tom McLay, the Trade Minister, should be working
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  Speaker 2: the phones with their counterpart and trying to get senacy
• 5:01
  Speaker 2: to prevail here, because in the end everyone's going to
• 5:04
  Speaker 2: be the loser.
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: With a trade war, That's true. Thank you so much,
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: Jeffrey Miller.
• 5:08
  Speaker 2: For more from Early Edition with Ryan Bridge, listen live
• 5:11
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• 5:14
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