Latest / The Fourcast / ‘HE COULD SELL TAIWAN OUT’ - China expert on Trump Xi meeting

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‘HE COULD SELL TAIWAN OUT’ - China expert on Trump Xi meeting · The Fourcast

0:00
This analysis that was leaked basically said China is out
0:03
manoeuvring America. It must be the kind of thing
0:06
that makes people in the White House, the Trump White House,
0:09
absolutely livid. Your first indicator?
0:11
A bombshell. A bombshell.
0:12
A genuine bombshell. China is essentially beating
0:14
America at its own capitalist game, and that is something that
0:17
Americans freak out over. For Beijing, Taiwan is its
0:21
absolute red line. All the signals that we have on
0:23
Trump, on Taiwan up till now is that he's actually quite
0:26
ambivalent towards Taiwan. And so I think that is leading a
0:28
lot of Hawks in the administration to I think he
0:30
might sell tie one out. Hello and welcome to the
0:36
forecast indicators with me, Matt Frey.
0:38
And me Mark Urban on the forecast indicators, we look at
0:42
the signs that analysts watch out for most closely, the hints
0:46
that suggest imminent change in global affairs that may just be
0:50
about to happen. Later on, we'll be bringing you
0:52
the latest indicators on the Iran war.
0:55
But to start with, there's one big story dominating the
0:58
international stage today, and that's Trump's meeting with
1:01
China's President Xi Jinping in Beijing.
1:04
And I'm very happy to say that we're joined by China expert and
1:07
Times contributing editor Cindy Yu to help us dissect what it
1:11
all really means. So let's get straight into it.
1:14
Mark. Your first indicator, A
1:16
bombshell. A bombshell.
1:17
A genuine bombshell. My first indicator obviously
1:20
relates to the visit, and this is the leak to the Washington
1:23
Post sort of as President Trump is airborne of this Pentagon
1:27
analysis. Now they call it a DIME
1:28
analysis, which is not what it's worth.
1:32
It's the acronym in the intelligence world for defence,
1:34
intelligence, military and economic.
1:37
That's the dime. And basically this analysis that
1:40
was leaked to the Washington Post and gave them a splash
1:43
while the president was airborne basically said China is out
1:47
manoeuvring America on pretty much all of these fronts.
1:51
You know, from the big successes they've had in insulating
1:54
themselves from the Gulf energy shock.
1:56
We've talked about that before because of the big oil stockpile
2:00
and everything else they had in place, to the successes they're
2:02
having in military production. And on the information side, to
2:06
the success they're having in painting the Americans as
2:09
floundering, warmongering and all the rest of it in terms of
2:13
information warfare. And so clearly.
2:16
Americans helping along a little bit with their language, let's
2:18
be honest. Well, it's so clearly they,
2:21
they, they had come to this very unfavourable analysis.
2:25
I mean, it must be the kind of thing that makes people in the
2:28
White House, the Trump White House absolutely livid.
2:30
I mean, this is the BLOB, isn't it?
2:31
Biting back And the intelligence analysts at the Pentagon
2:35
essentially saying, I think in part because they're smarting
2:39
about the situation that Trump has got them into in the Gulf,
2:43
you know, and we'll talk about other leaks in relation to Iran
2:46
as well. There's a lot of leaking going
2:49
on at the expense of the administration right now, and in
2:52
this case, it's bang on the money on the China summit.
2:55
Yeah, I mean, I was going to add my indicator, which is, you
3:00
know, this is extraordinary pomp and circumstance.
3:02
And the Chinese are as good at this stuff as the Americans and
3:05
the Brits can be when we want to be.
3:07
And so Trump is greeted with, you know, waving flags and, and
3:12
incredible music and he's full of effusive rhetoric about Xi
3:15
Jinping. And I kind of wonder, why does
3:17
he love Xi Jinping this much? There's a real there's a real
3:20
bromance going on there. And maybe you can explain,
3:22
Cindy, why that is why you think that's the case.
3:25
But within all this, they're going to be talking about all
3:27
these things. And then, of course, Taiwan is
3:30
going to come up. And it did come up.
3:31
But what was so interesting was that Donald Trump, who never
3:36
shuts up, you know, given the presence of a microphone, when
3:39
asked about Taiwan by a phalanx of White House correspondents
3:42
who travelled with him, basically said nothing.
3:46
He's standing next to Xi Jinping, and he said not a word.
3:50
And he was asked again and again and he didn't respond and then
3:54
just wandered off right. At the same time, on the
3:57
official Chinese media, their headline was Taiwan did come up.
4:01
And Xi Jinping said that if this isn't, I'm paraphrasing, if this
4:06
isn't sorted out, it could lead to conflict with America in the
4:11
worst case scenario. Now, the fact that they spelt
4:13
this out like that is really interesting because that's, you
4:16
know, that's not exactly part of the protocol because it was like
4:19
the item on CCTV this morning, Beijing time.
4:23
And the fact that Trump said nothing makes me think, makes
4:26
probably you think too, that actually this was a real bone of
4:29
contention here. And I just wondered to what
4:32
extent, you know, where was the friction?
4:34
We don't know. So was it the fact that Trump,
4:37
with an eye on his own domestic audience, because bashing China
4:40
is popular with Democrats and Republicans, decided that he
4:43
wouldn't, you know, scrap the $14 billion weapons package to
4:49
Taiwan that has been put in the long grass?
4:51
That he decided maybe not to scrap the 11 billion one, which
4:55
he didn't sign off on, or that he didn't use the kind of
4:57
language which Chinese fantasists have been hoping for?
5:01
That he'd go from we don't support independence to we
5:03
oppose independence. So there's a point of friction
5:06
there. Clearly for the Chinese, it's
5:08
the leverage of whatever he does on Taiwan against what they can
5:11
do with Iran on the Straits of Ormans.
5:13
And I think it must have taken so much self restraint for him
5:15
to stop talking in that interview at that moment because
5:19
before he was just doing his typical we've.
5:21
Yeah, exactly. Yeah.
5:22
This is a great meeting. China's amazing.
5:25
My friend President Xi asked about Taiwan, suddenly silence.
5:29
And I think it was so much self restraint.
5:31
I mean, one interpretation could be that that was a bone of
5:33
contention that he put his foot down.
5:36
All the signals that we have on Trump, on Taiwan up till now is
5:39
that he's actually quite ambivalent towards Taiwan.
5:41
You know, famously before the US last US election, he said that
5:44
the US should just behave like an insurance company.
5:46
There's nothing emotional or or out of love that they have for
5:50
Taiwan, nothing ideologically committing them to Taiwan's
5:53
defence, just that if Taiwan pays, we'll defend them.
5:56
And if they don't pay them, good luck to them.
5:57
You know, So it's very it's an ambivalence that other
6:00
presidents haven't been so cold hearted about.
6:03
And it's rhetorically. And so I think that is leading a
6:05
lot of Hawks in the administration to think, gosh,
6:08
he he might sell Taiwan out. Do you sorry, I'm going to jump
6:11
in that. So I, I saw some people labeling
6:17
the she bit of the readout where he says we've got to resolve
6:21
this carefully, otherwise it could be really dangerous on
6:23
Taiwan as kind of boilerplate, the kind of thing he would
6:27
always say or do you take the view that it it was more of a
6:32
warning. Where do you stand?
6:34
On it's both right I mean it's it's the core China 'cause it
6:37
the reddest of its red lines it has the most core interest for
6:40
China. You know, for us in the West, we
6:42
look at Taiwan, we think, but why does China even care?
6:44
Like, what's this? What is even the problem?
6:46
We have to switch that mindset and understand that for Beijing,
6:49
Taiwan is its absolute red line that that if Taiwan were to
6:53
declare independence, that is the one guarantee thing to to,
6:57
to usher on an invasion scenario because China will say we cannot
7:00
allow this to happen. So that warning was trying to
7:03
telling Trump, don't do anything stupid here.
7:05
Don't encourage them to declare independence.
7:08
We know they have de facto independence, but nobody's ever
7:10
declared it because if you do, that is literally the make or
7:14
break for, for our relationship and for, for, I guess, peace in
7:17
the region. But.
7:17
What I find so fascinating is that, you know, Trump is a guy
7:20
who famously thinks in terms of hemispheres.
7:22
You know, I have the Western Hemisphere.
7:24
You she have the Eastern Hemisphere.
7:25
You more or less do what you like where you have to do it.
7:28
I can't imagine that Trump, who doesn't really believe in, you
7:33
know, global American principles, you know, he he
7:35
never talks about defending democracy in Ukraine.
7:38
That's not his thing. That's not what he's interested
7:40
in. Why would he suddenly deploy
7:41
that argument in Taiwan? I can't imagine him doing that.
7:44
So what else is preventing him, if that is true, from not giving
7:49
she what she wants? You know the change.
7:52
Of wording, yeah, there are hard power reasons to defend Taiwan
7:55
as well as democratic reasons. You know, Taiwan is obviously
7:57
the world leading producer of semiconductors.
8:00
Exactly. And of course under Trump's last
8:02
presidency, he's kick started the Arizona plant the the kind
8:05
of distribution capability of that manufacturing chain.
8:08
But as as what as we've heard, it's actually been quite
8:11
difficult to do that to replicate that in America.
8:14
So that's one The other thing is just the political, the control
8:18
of the region. You know, if China controls
8:20
Taiwan, then it has what it's called the first island chain
8:23
thrown up. And so that is then a much more
8:25
of a source of threat to countries like Japan and South
8:28
Korea and America's presence in the in the Pacific as well.
8:32
So all of that is if you're a hard headed hawk, you should
8:35
care about Taiwan. I think also madly in terms of
8:38
it's in there in the, in the Trump national security
8:40
strategy, this idea of, of the control of the most advanced
8:45
chips, you know, but if if China gets Taiwan and I guess given
8:49
the Trump attitude to control of, you know, strategic
8:52
waterways or oil or whatever, that's all part of his sort of
8:55
geopolitical worldview, isn't it?
8:57
But you're right to point out that he doesn't care about
8:59
democracy so much in the pre pre visit interview he gave about
9:03
Jimmy Lai. Exactly, yes.
9:05
So what what he basically said, and I paraphrase here, he was
9:08
asked about whether or not he'd raised Jimmy Lai, this jailed
9:11
former media mogul in Hong Kong. And he said, well, Jimmy Lai's
9:14
called bedlam for China. It's like, like asking me if I
9:17
would let Comedy out after putting him behind bars.
9:20
James Comedy being a former FBI director, he's been trying to
9:22
put behind bars That kind of language.
9:25
You know, it comes from China, it doesn't come from America,
9:28
but it did. But he did raise it.
9:30
But he did say he would still raise Jamie White.
9:32
Yes, read out. He did raise it.
9:35
But he he's not out of. The But also remember he wasn't
9:37
very nice about Jamal Khashoggi when MBS was in the in the Oval
9:41
Office as well. Trump hasn't got a great track
9:43
record when it comes to defending, you know, human
9:46
rights victims or prisoners. You have an indicator for us.
9:49
What is it, Cindy? Yes, I've got an indicator
9:51
because thinking about this visit compared to the last visit
9:54
that Trump made and actually any American president made in 2017,
9:57
China has changed a lot. And my indicator is the use of
10:00
this anti foreign sanctions law that China has triggered earlier
10:04
this month. And now that sounds boring, but
10:06
stay with me for a second here, because what it means is that
10:08
when the US sanctions Chinese companies or other companies
10:11
working with Chinese companies, China is now saying, well,
10:15
actually if you're a Chinese company, you have recourse now
10:17
to take these other companies to court for obeying U.S.
10:21
sanctions. So if you're a Singaporean bank
10:23
house, if you are an insurance company in the UK, for example,
10:26
and you're obeying with American sanctions and not cooperating
10:30
with Chinese sanctioned entities, China can now take you
10:33
to court inside China. So this is a massive potential
10:35
loss of earnings if this power is seen through in the courts.
10:39
But China's triggered it now anyway.
10:40
It's basically saying take U.S. sanctions or pick doing business
10:44
with us. It is something that they have
10:45
never done, which is. Kind of what the Americans have
10:47
done to the rest of the world for a very long time.
10:49
Yeah, sure. And it's a.
10:50
Secondary sanction. Yeah.
10:51
Yeah, exactly. Yeah, and, and China's never
10:53
done this before. You know, it's kind of in,
10:54
especially in 2017, it kind of backed down when there were
10:57
sanctions against Huawei, against Zete, another massive
10:59
chip maker. And so that difference between
11:02
that last visit and now and China basically signalling we're
11:05
not going to back down this time when you sanction us.
11:08
I think it's the beginning of a new phase of yeah, that's a big.
11:10
Power play. Yeah, I think, I mean the the
11:12
story of the last year surely on so many levels is that America
11:15
has learnt both on a military level but also on an economic
11:19
trading level, the limits of its power and its power to bully.
11:22
And China has learnt the extent of its power, you know, rare
11:25
earth metals and so on. Which brings me to another
11:28
little indicator, if I may, which is, yeah, we all thought
11:31
at the beginning, did we not when the, the, the Gulf War
11:34
starts on the 28th of February, the China with its enormous
11:37
demand for energy, you know, so much of it comes to the Strait
11:39
of Hormuz that China would be absolutely screwed by this.
11:42
Well, it turns out they they prepared because they have huge
11:44
stockpiles of it, but also the demand for what they're really
11:48
good at, which is renewable energy.
11:50
You know, batteries, solar, wind has gone through the roof.
11:54
So interesting little indicators here.
11:57
The in America where they're not particularly enamoured of
11:59
electric vehicles, the search for electric vehicles in March
12:02
has gone up by 25% or something. The demand for buying these
12:06
things made cheaply and very well by China and Europe has
12:09
gone up 100%. And then you look at what Trump
12:13
has been doing, you know, drill, baby, drill.
12:15
Not just that, I mean, he's his legislation in the big beautiful
12:19
bill has been anti green energy. But it also happens that 93% of
12:26
all the new electricity coming on online generated, you know,
12:29
in this year will be done by renewable sources of energy.
12:34
So American companies, individual states are going
12:37
green as the president, you know, is going back to the dark
12:41
ages and, and everyone has got their eye on China because China
12:45
has totally nailed this particular industry.
12:48
And just one other one, 12% of the entire energy consumption in
12:53
America in 2028 will be used by these massive data centres that
12:57
AI needs to be AI. Where's that energy going to
13:00
come from? And who's on the plane with
13:02
Trump to Beijing? These guys are going to be
13:05
talking to energy companies, you know, about solar and wind and
13:08
so on. And that I just find it's a bit
13:10
like Trump is absolutely doubled down on buying chisels and slabs
13:14
of granite just as the Gutenberg Beidel is printed in a printing
13:18
press. I mean, it's bonkers.
13:20
And it. Doesn't make financial sense.
13:22
Only and. Who's going to tell him that?
13:23
Only earlier this year he told a group of voters in Detroit, if
13:26
China comes and builds AEV factory here and gives you jobs
13:29
and investment, I'd be supportive of that, to the kind
13:32
of chagrin of a lot of people in his administration.
13:34
What we're allowing Chinese EVs into American and Chinese
13:36
factories into America. So Trump is not consistent on
13:39
this. But this combination of
13:41
industrial policy in China and a really hard knock school of
13:45
capitalism where, you know, I think it was Tom Friedman from
13:47
the New York Times who described it in China, you know, the
13:50
Chinese, a Chinese state government or the Fed, you know,
13:52
that the the national government will give you the subsidy to
13:55
start something new. And five of these factors will
13:57
be competing against each other under the most brutal
13:59
circumstances. And then one of them will
14:01
prevail and they will get support from the state.
14:03
The others all go to the to the wall.
14:05
But it's like a gym. They're working out in the gym
14:08
of capitalism. And, you know, someone who's
14:10
covered America in the in the 90s, but also, you know, lived
14:13
there for 11 years after 2002, The thing that really got under
14:18
the skin before was Japan. Japan really got under America's
14:21
skin. But that was nothing compared to
14:23
what China's doing because China is essentially beating America
14:26
at its own capitalist game with the intervention of the state.
14:30
And that is something that Americans freak out over.
14:33
Yeah, well, they call it not playing by the rules, don't
14:35
they? That's the one way of describing
14:36
it. Can I circle back to your
14:38
indicator, Cindy, which is about this contest that now seems to
14:42
be there on sanctions and the so-called secondary sanctions?
14:45
In other words, if you do business with our enemies, you
14:48
can be sanctioned, too. Am I, am I not right in saying,
14:51
though, because as far as I understand it, the oil that's
14:53
coming from Iran, that's still making it to China is being
14:57
transshipped at sea onto other tankers.
15:00
So. So there still seems to be a
15:02
wariness on their part about breaking the sanctions on
15:05
Iranian oil. Yeah.
15:07
So how big a sea change is it then, if they start to contest
15:12
those Americans? As I understand it, sanctions on
15:14
Iran have impacted Chinese behaviour when it comes to Iran.
15:17
So actually in 2021, China signed US $400 billion
15:21
investment deal with Iran, which Iran hoped would lift it out of
15:24
its kind of prior state status. But very little of that
15:28
investment has transpired actually, because when you're an
15:30
average Chinese company, you're worried about being punished by
15:33
the Americans for doing that business.
15:34
So the sanctions work Chinese, the Chinese entities are
15:37
restrained. At the same time, what has
15:39
happened during this war is that America sanctioned Chinese
15:42
refineries that are using Iranian oil in a way that it
15:45
hasn't done before. So five leading refineries have
15:49
been sanctioned as well as one of the biggest refineries in
15:52
China itself. So that's what triggered China
15:54
to use this blocking rule to say you can't get away with this.
15:57
We are going to give some protection to our own
15:59
refineries, as it were. And so we're basically just
16:02
starting to see, you know, the sanctions so far have worked.
16:04
You know, they they have restrained China.
16:06
But I think we're starting to seize China kind of calling the
16:08
bluff on that and making other people choose sides to say, are
16:11
you really going to obey the American way of doing things
16:14
when we we don't recognize these sanctions?
16:17
To what extent is the Chinese media full of sort of, you know,
16:22
slide remarks about America losing the plot and, and yeah,
16:26
and we are now the designated adults, you know, on the global
16:29
stage. And people are coming to us.
16:31
They may not like the embrace of Uncle XI, but it's better than,
16:34
you know, Uncle Sam was, you know, basically gone from being
16:38
unpredictable to being unreliable.
16:39
Yeah, there's a joke about Chinese state media, which is
16:41
the nightly news, the 6:00 news equivalent, if you will.
16:45
It's always split into 3 sections.
16:46
The first section is always where President Xi has gone on
16:49
some leading. Handshakes.
16:51
The handshakes. Yeah, Section 2 is all about how
16:55
the rest of the world is burning and everything's in turmoil.
16:57
Section 3 is basically criticizing world leaders doing
17:00
something else. So there's a very kind of joke
17:03
format that people joke about. And and you're right, you know,
17:05
you do you expect that from state media, But I think a lot
17:07
of people are fascinated by Trump actually.
17:09
Trump actually has a Chinese name that kind of people in
17:12
China gave him called Tran Tianguo.
17:14
Tran being the transliteration of Trump.
17:16
And Tianguo means to build the nation.
17:19
So to say that Trump is building, making China great
17:21
again, he's building China back up again because of what he's
17:24
doing seems to be, can be interpreted in so many ways as
17:27
actually being conversely good for China.
17:29
So they find him quite a comical character.
17:32
But but you know, on an official level, you know, it's, it's,
17:35
it's a lot of respect as we've seen on this on this visit, but
17:38
there is a lot of criticism as well.
17:40
You know, for example, in Iran is a classic case of American
17:43
imperialism rearing its head again, etcetera.
17:45
And, and how is the issue of of possible Chinese military
17:50
supplies to Iran in this war been sort of tiptoed around in
17:55
this summit? Because, you know, Trump said
17:56
that thing about the ship they boarded, the Tusker that was
17:59
going for Malaysia, implying that it was carrying Chinese
18:03
weapons towards Iran. Said it was a little GIF from
18:06
Beijing. Perhaps we don't know.
18:08
And then there's also been leaks on that subject as well,
18:11
intelligence wise. So does that lead to a
18:15
confrontation in in or is Trump too in awe of the moment?
18:18
Well, so he was asked about this in an interview a while ago and
18:21
he said, well, actually, we probably do similar again to the
18:25
kind of disappointment of, of interviewers and Hawks in the
18:28
administration. You know, that Trump would be
18:29
just so blase about China supplying technology, technology
18:33
to Iran. And I, I think on this question,
18:35
it's important to look at what China does do, which is the dual
18:38
use technologies, you know, things like cameras or, or we
18:42
heard about in the FT investigation satellites, for
18:45
example, technologies like that, that Iran doesn't get from other
18:49
places, not military per SE, but your use.
18:52
So it's definitely very important for.
18:54
Them and satellite imaging as well.
18:55
A. Big record of that with the
18:57
Ukraine though as well isn't there?
18:58
But then there's also. All the components for drones.
19:01
Yes, exactly. And all the other bits and
19:03
pieces. Well, famously, the Ukrainian
19:04
and the Russian buyers had to be time planned in their visits to
19:08
Chinese factories so that they don't and into each other buying
19:10
the same drone parts. And so I think Trump understands
19:13
that cynicism, understands that pragmatism and maybe always
19:17
respect it. And so it doesn't seem to be
19:20
coming up. But it is interesting to see him
19:23
say, you know, maybe we all need, you know, China to take a
19:26
step up. Certainly Marco Rubio is saying
19:28
that, but Trump probably doesn't want to be asking China for help
19:31
because it feels like it's admitting a bit of weakness
19:33
here. But I don't know behind closed
19:35
doors and. And on that sort of compare and
19:39
contrast to the two readouts, the Americans had this point
19:42
that China said it wasn't up for paying the Hormuz toll booth.
19:47
Yes, that that that I mean logical enough that China will
19:51
not want to agree to a system where they.
19:53
And that was in, that was in their joint statement as much
19:56
as. Was it as well?
19:56
Yeah. Yeah, they did say we don't want
19:58
the militarisation of the Strait Hormuz or we don't want it to be
20:01
turned into a revenue source. Yeah, I think along those lines.
20:03
So I think they they both understand if they go down.
20:06
That road, the people closest to the toll booth are the are the
20:08
Iranians. So you know, they're making,
20:11
it's going to cost them more than it's going to make them
20:12
even in Trump's terms. You've got an indicator, haven't
20:15
you, Mark? It's just going back to the Iran
20:17
war. Yes, I think so.
20:18
We are now effortlessly pivoting back towards the Gulf in the
20:21
Middle East. Interesting though the way it's
20:23
suffused this first part of this conversation.
20:27
So this is another chapter in in in the leaking file and the fact
20:34
that in addition to the the leak we had about the Chinese and
20:36
their relative power political positions, there have been leaks
20:40
in the last 10 days about how much the US and Israel have or
20:45
have not achieved against Iran militarily.
20:49
And the degree to which the Iranians have used the last few
20:53
weeks of ceasefire to to put right some of those problems.
20:57
So the Iranians, for example, have these underground missile
21:01
cities, they can't really be destroyed even with those big
21:04
penetrating ordnance bombs that the Americans have.
21:08
So instead of that, what they did was cave in the entrances.
21:11
Well, of course, the the Iranians have been working away
21:14
feverishly during these recent weeks.
21:16
And according to one of these reports from the CIA that got
21:19
leaked, 30 of the 33 underground missile bases are now operative
21:25
again. 30 of the 30. Three indeed.
21:27
So we don't know how many of the missiles were left inside.
21:31
I mean, basically what the Israelis and the Americans did
21:33
was to bomb the entities to sort of stop them up.
21:36
Of course, they were also destroying missile launchers
21:39
outside when they came out to launch.
21:42
But the estimate again there is that 80%, around 80% of
21:46
launchers may still be intact. Now to me, there's something a
21:52
bit fishy about this estimate. To me, I think what it also
21:56
shows is that a very sort of political way this intelligence
21:59
is being shaped by the analysts, but also caused by the
22:02
journalists who want a good solid Trump's war is futile type
22:06
headline. Because if you look at all the
22:08
short range systems, some of which can hit, you know, Kuwait
22:13
or I'm sure that's true. I'm sure that because there are
22:17
so many of them essentially, if you think about it as a pyramid
22:20
of capability and up at the top they've got sort of satellite
22:23
launchers and proto Icbms and it's tiny in number.
22:28
And then a bit further down it's the stuff that can hit Israel.
22:31
And then so, so I'm sure that many of those short range
22:35
launchers are still intact. But that question and it's but
22:39
of course, it's particularly salient for the Gulf neighbors
22:42
who are within range of those systems.
22:44
So if the war starts again and the Iranians have substantially.
22:48
It's the gulf that gets in in the net, yeah.
22:50
Freed up their capability and got those bases going again.
22:53
Then there's a big question that and I think the leaking of this,
22:57
the timing of these leaks, which I guess all tend to sort of say
23:01
don't restart the war and you haven't achieved as much as you
23:04
have. Incredibly unhelpful for Trump,
23:07
I think. I mean, just quickly, do you
23:08
think given the fact that, you know, once this state visit is
23:11
over to Beijing and everyone thought that there would be a
23:14
natural extension of the ceasefire that already looked
23:16
very wobbly, you know, at the beginning of the week.
23:18
Do you think that we're back to where we were a few weeks ago,
23:21
we're back to non ceasefire. Have you know, has the pause
23:24
been long enough for both sides to make more stuff or, or, or do
23:28
they just want to have the ceasefire continue?
23:30
Because yes. Yes.
23:33
And I think you said a few weeks ago, didn't you, that that you
23:36
predicted a sort of dribbling sort of end where nothing was
23:39
definitively decided. And I think that's a distinct
23:42
possibility. Look, the first thing we need to
23:43
look for indicator is whether China makes some kind of
23:47
diplomatic demarch after this summit meeting, because it may
23:51
well be that you know, it, it has all its own reasons and has
23:56
really emphasized that it wants this conflict to be stopped.
24:00
So they may make and that could give the Iranians a bit of
24:03
diplomatic cover to, to just budget a bit, particularly on
24:07
that Strait of Hormuz tollbooth line of shares.
24:11
So, so, so if we get past that over the next week or two and
24:16
that doesn't work and and that doesn't happen, the Chinese
24:19
don't get involved in that way or use their Pakistani friends
24:23
to help them with that. And I think, yes, I think it is
24:25
a possibility that we go back to no peace, no war, which is
24:30
terrible for the Gulf states clearly.
24:32
Can I ask you, Cindy, I mean, for on one level it looks as if
24:35
this could be win, win for China.
24:37
So you, you know, you, you put pressure on the Iranians.
24:40
You open up the Strait of Hormuz.
24:43
You know, maybe it's a toll booth, but with a very low toll,
24:45
whatever. I mean, you know, there's some
24:46
resumption of traffic, and you can say this is a big deal.
24:50
You know, the Americans say this is a big deal.
24:52
Now, what is China, actually? What is it prepared to do?
24:57
Or rather, what does it need from America in order to exert
25:00
that kind of pressure on the Iranians?
25:02
Because that is America's weakest point here, isn't it?
25:05
I mean, OK, the Boeing planes, 500 Supermax jets, that's great.
25:09
And Trump loves that kind of stuff.
25:11
And soya beans, Yeah, that's a big deal.
25:13
And he loves that, too. But the thing that really
25:14
matters to him is getting the Chinese involved to open the
25:17
straight. So getting back to my Taiwan
25:20
point is that the price they'll demand.
25:23
Is that why we had a silent Donald Trump this morning?
25:26
This is the $40 billion question, Matt.
25:29
And that's obviously the size of the arms package that the US is
25:31
selling to Taiwan. So, you know, if they say we're
25:34
going to sell Taiwan less arms, who knows what she would be
25:37
willing to pay for that. But I would just caution that
25:40
China doesn't tend to do mediation.
25:42
It just historically doesn't tend to do that kind of world
25:44
policeman figure, that global negotiator figure.
25:47
The only basically the exception to that was in 2021, I think it
25:51
was between Iran and Saudi Arabia when they had an accord.
25:54
But I hear that actually other countries had basically made
25:56
that happen and China just came and rubber stamped it.
25:59
Beijing is very, very cautious about expending any resources on
26:03
things that it considers not really its own concern.
26:06
And of course, China wants the straight to be open, but it is
26:09
far from the biggest loser in the current situation at the
26:12
moment. So I think it's just kind of
26:14
setting it out basically, you know, let's see what the next 24
26:16
hours bring. Perhaps Trump can charm more
26:19
than I am giving him credit for, but I would be skeptical that
26:22
China is actually going to do anything that helpful when it
26:25
comes to Iran. I mean, I, I think if they did,
26:27
maybe that would be a new chapter of, of China's soft
26:30
power in the world. But I don't think they will see
26:32
there would be that much in it for them to do that.
26:34
Mike, you've got another indicator.
26:36
Well, the only other thing which I think really screamed out at
26:38
me during the the coverage of the past couple of days is this
26:42
report that Saudi Arabia was bombing away during the the
26:49
active phase of this on the. Sly.
26:50
Yeah. And none of us kind of knew it.
26:52
Now, I had said, sitting in this very studio a few weeks ago,
26:56
that the United Arab Emirates had hit the Lavanna Island oil
27:00
term. I mean, that there, there was
27:01
pretty clear evidence that the UAE had dropped bombs.
27:05
But the idea that the Saudis were doing it and and we're
27:08
doing it to apparently set red lines and ground rules with Iran
27:12
about, you know, if you hit our oil terminal on the Red Sea,
27:15
you'll get a lot more bombs. That sort of, you know,
27:18
communication going on through diplomatic channels.
27:21
It's absolutely fascinating because in a sense we now have
27:23
to look back at the things that were happening during the latter
27:26
part of the war or the active phase of this and think to
27:30
ourselves, Oh well, was it perhaps the Saudis that were
27:34
influencing the Iranians both not to destroy their
27:38
infrastructure on the red seacoast, but also to come to
27:41
the negotiating table? But one thing what smells fishy
27:45
to me about that is why didn't Donald Trump tell us this is
27:48
going? They must have known, right?
27:50
There's no way that would have evaded the CIA.
27:52
They would have told Trump. And Trump was desperate to say,
27:54
look, there are all these other guys who joined me in my battle
27:57
with Israel and you know, they're not doing enough.
28:00
Surely, he would have said, look at the Saudis.
28:02
Or indeed the Israelis to leak it as they did the the the
28:05
Netanyahu trip to the UAE, which the UAE now denies.
28:08
No, no, absolutely. Well, for whatever reason,
28:11
everyone kept mum. Maybe, you know, people are a
28:13
bit afraid of Saudi Arabia in in geopolitical.
28:16
Especially if you know Mohammed bin Salman.
28:17
For good reason, yeah. Exactly.
28:19
Now I think we've got time for one more indicator.
28:21
This is a really you are. Going to pot it.
28:24
I'm going to pot it and it's it's off off Broadway for this
28:27
because this is about Chinese power, but it's not about the
28:30
kind of power that we're seeing at the moment in Beijing between
28:33
XI and Trump. This is about China's soft
28:35
power. And they're talking, oh, for
28:37
goodness sake, stop dropping the hints.
28:39
I'm talking about your favorite game, snooker.
28:42
So how many snooker fans do you think there are in China?
28:48
Millions. 100 at least 130 million super fans and the
28:54
number of, you know, snooker halls in China has gone from
28:57
30,000 roughly in 2005 to 300,000.
29:01
Most importantly, the last two world champions in snooker were
29:05
Chinese. There's there's a guy who won
29:09
just a few weeks ago. He's 22 years old and the
29:12
previous winner was a little bit older, but he won last year.
29:16
And the last guy beat a guy called Sean Murphy, who was
29:18
known as the Magician in England.
29:20
He was an amazing guy from Essex, 43 years old, was thought
29:24
to be the best nuker player ever.
29:26
So long comes this Chinese kid. He's 22 years old.
29:29
As he gets his trophy, a woman runs out from sort of right
29:34
stage and hands him the flag of the People's Republic of China.
29:37
And he holds it up to the cameras.
29:39
And the same thing happened last year when the other Chinese guy
29:41
won. So what's so interesting, I said
29:44
we respect China for its electric cars, its robotics, you
29:47
know, DeepSeek AI, all that stuff.
29:49
You know, the sheer exuberance of its economic growth.
29:53
But soft power, not so much. You know, what are what are the
29:56
great Chinese superstars in the world?
29:57
But the fact that the Chinese, obviously this is because the
30:01
kid is talented. China's obsessed with snooker,
30:03
but it's encouraged by the state.
30:05
They've got a state snooker Academy in Beijing, for goodness
30:08
sake. We don't have that in London.
30:10
The fact that they're using soft power to be more noticed and
30:14
even perhaps loved on the international stage, I think
30:17
it's absolutely fascinating. Matt, just to turn that on its
30:22
head as well, it's also a successful story for Western
30:25
soft power. That snooker is so beloved in
30:27
China as is, you know, I don't know, football, for example,
30:31
Harry Potter, Downton Abbey, you know, all of these things.
30:33
I could sound like the Prime Minister in Love, Actually, if I
30:35
could go keep going with the list.
30:37
Thank you very much to both of you.
30:38
Thank you. Thank you for having me, yeah.
30:39
Thanks. It's great to have you, Cindy.
30:41
Thanks very much. That's the indicators.
30:43
See you next time.