Latest / CattleUSA Daily / 220: Not the “Worst Winter Ever”: What the Real Long-Range Forecast Says for 2025–26 with Gary Lezak

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220: Not the “Worst Winter Ever”: What the Real Long-Range Forecast Says for 2025–26 with Gary Lezak · CattleUSA Daily

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  In today's episode of the Cattle USA Daily podcast, we are
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  bringing back on Gary Lee Zach and he is breaking down at the
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  winter weather forecast for all of us AG producers out there.
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  Gary is breaking down kind of what we can anticipate and
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  expect as we go into the rest of December's, maybe some winter
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  storms or ice storms for the plains on the horizon for the
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  week of Christmas. And just what we can anticipate
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  as the rest of this pattern continues to set up.
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  And what Gary's thoughts are on droughts, on winter storms, on
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  just moisture in general as we go into this winter.
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  So before we hop into this podcast episode with Gary, you
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  guys could take a second to make sure that you like and subscribe
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  on whatever platform you are on. And if you're on YouTube, make
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  sure that you're following our channel.
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  If you're on podcast, go take a second to rate and review our
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  channel as well. Thank you so much for being
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  here. And without further ado, let's
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  go ahead and hear from Carrie. Welcome to the Cattle USA Daily
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  Podcast, your go to source for the latest livestock markets,
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  industry insights and the updates shaping agriculture
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  today. I'm your host, Lauren Moylan, a
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  passionate advocate for agriculture here to keep you
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  informed and connected. Now let's dive into today's
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  episode. Gary, welcome back to the
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  podcast. You have had a very busy week
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  kind of all over the place. How how's life in Colorado?
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  How are you doing? Well, I'm doing fantastic.
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  I just got back from Grand Island, NE.
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  I drove 6 hours there on on Monday and they put me up in
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  this nice hotel so that was good.
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  I brought Rainbow and Sunny with me.
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  I don't know if you saw any of my social post, but I, I showed
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  off my my there Rainbow and Sunny's elevator etiquette
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  because when we get in the elevator, I go elevator and it's
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  like it's basically a sit command by your elevator.
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  So they know we're in elevators. They both sit.
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  It's so cute. There's something like this
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  while the elevator is moving and but we were at the Grand Island
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  resort and casino, so a nice, it was actually a nice brand new
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  hotel. And then I talked to crop
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  consultants yesterday in Nebraska and then I great
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  questions, great conversation. We introduced the winter
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  forecast. We'll talk about that in a
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  second. And then we then I drove home
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  and on the way home yesterday, it was a crazy tumbleweed storm
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  because it was very windy. It's been dry.
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  And so all these tumbleweeds are crossing the road and these
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  semis, they're like tilting like I'm going to die.
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  This this semis is going to tilt and it's one of them is going to
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  fall. And so I would go past semis
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  real fast because I didn't every every second of your life, your
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  life could be in jeopardy there. So but a few times tumbleweeds
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  come right out in front of the semi and then smash right into
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  my car. So.
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  It was Western Nebraska is brutal to drive through
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  sometimes, especially in those windy days, because there is
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  nothing stopping that wind or slowing it down or anything.
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  It is just, it's insane. Yeah, it was, it was a a nice
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  ride home. But yeah, the dogs had a good
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  trip. I had a good trip.
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  I'm back in Golden, Co studying this weather pattern.
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  It's still very complex. We're learning a lot more.
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  So I'm going to take your questions today about the winter
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  forecast and that is out now. And you can actually see the
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  link of the Weather 2020 YouTube channel that will put a link on
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  there for you to look at. But but I I rearranged it with
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  the one that I wrote into the video.
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  So it's pretty cool showing the two phases of the weather
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  pattern that we're about to experience for the next year
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  ahead. So exciting.
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  I am ecstatic to break it down today.
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  So what is just your initial thoughts on the weather pattern
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  and kind of what we're seeing right now and then we can get
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  into the nitty gritty? The first topic that can come up
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  is there going to be a drought this season?
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  Right now it doesn't appear there is going to be, but the
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  drought is not shrinking or contracting.
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  So areas that are not in drought are not in drought.
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  Areas that are in just slightly dry are slightly dry.
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  And in the next two or three months, we're going to see if
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  they expand across Nebraska, Kansas and Missouri.
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  My initial instincts say that there's going to be enough
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  moisture, so probably not a major concern for drought, but
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  we have to, I'm not totally on that conclusion yet.
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  So that's the first thing. Second thing, we have two main
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  phases of the weather pattern. One that brings these systems
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  across the southern part of Canada.
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  They called Alberta Clippers, you probably heard that term.
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  The systems come across Montana and North Dakota, clip Alberta,
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  and then dive through the Great Lakes.
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  Chicago's already had 17 inches of snow this winter so far, it's
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  not even winter and our model shows 37 inches after January
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  1st. That'd be 55 inches at least for
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  them this winter the way things are looking, if not 75 inches of
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  snow. So the Great Lakes are in one of
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  those hot spots for winter storms.
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  As we look in Colorado, there's a 40% probability that then we
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  right now there's a 60 to 80% probability is going to be a dry
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  winter. I mean below average snowfall.
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  Breckenridge, Co, Aspen, Co Vail, you go to the Colorado ski
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  resorts, Winter Park, whichever 1 you choose, it's right now
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  about 40% average of average snowfall.
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  Let's say they get 300 inches of snow during a winter.
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  That means they're probably going to get 150 to 200 inches
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  of snow. Great.
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  That's a lot of snow. But for the scary is that's half
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  of normal. So that is a problem for them.
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  There's a problem for fire season is probably for drought
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  over the Rockies. So that could be a concern.
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  It's not necessary the wettest spot in the world anyway.
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  But that is extended out across Denver, out across the cattle
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  ranches, over western Nebraska, western Kansas, and it's a
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  concern. So we'll have to watch that dry
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  area and see if it's growing through winter.
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  If it's growing through winter, we'll look at the spring
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  outlook. But right now there is some
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  concern there. So this, the first phase of the
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  weather pattern, brings those systems to the Great Lakes and
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  through Des Moines, IA. The phase two-part of the
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  weather pattern, which lasts for about 10 days, brings storms
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  into California and I think that that might amplify around mid
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  January and mid February and also late the late December.
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  We'll see you. There's an opportunity the jet
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  string can get really strong into the Southwest and that
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  could bring some rain and snow to the plains and possibly an
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  ice storm. Overall, it's it's a unique
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  pattern the LRC sets up every year in October, November.
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  We went through it. I don't like it personally.
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  I mean, I shouldn't take it personal, but I do.
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  I mean, I want an exciting winter.
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  Where I live. I love snow and we've had 7.7
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  inches of snow with our first snow.
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  It was the latest, first snow in Golden, CO's history.
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  I don't like the weather pattern.
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  It's it's but I I can't do anything about it.
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  Yeah, yeah, definitely. I'm not loving this weather
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  pattern either, especially for a lot of our agricultural belt.
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  We're seeing some concerns of drought like you touched on and
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  just different areas like that, that nothing's growing or
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  shrinking right now. It's just kind of all staying
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  pretty stable. But I know for some people
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  that's a big concern considering they've been in a drought for a
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  while or different things like that.
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  So what other details of this weather pattern do we kind of
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  need to break down, Gary, what are some other thoughts that you
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  have as we prepare for this next year?
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  Some of these social media stars in meteorology, one of them, his
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  name is Max Velocity is like last working years coming down.
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  This is the worst winter in the history of the history of the
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  world of the universe. This is so bad and yet it's
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  going to be in the 60s next week.
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  OK. So it's not going to be the
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  worst winter ever. These exaggerated forecasts are
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  not good for weather 2020 in the LRC because we do have a system
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  that can actually predict beyond 15 days and those others do not
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  have a system that works we do. So as soon as we get another
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  couple weeks, we're going to be able to plan January through
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  May, planting in the growing, the beginning of growing season
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  accurately on wet, which weeks will be wet, which weeks will be
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  dry? And it's not going to be the
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  worst winter in the history of mankind.
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  These warmups are dramatic. And there's one big one coming
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  our way next week. So we'll see there will still be
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  some Arctic blast and then a real true Arctic blast may still
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  come down sometime. It has been true Arctic cold
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  where it snowed up in Minnesota. It's been down to 20 and 30°
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  below 0. So I don't want to dampen that.
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  I mean, it really has been cold in a few spots, but it's warmed
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  up right away. So we're fortunate so far.
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  So UPS the downs. The storm systems have not been
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  major yet. Yeah, Chicago's had 17 inches of
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  snow, but in like 4 snows. So it's like 4 inches here, 6
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  inches there, 4 inches here. And there hasn't been one of
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  those two foot blizzards yet. And so will that happen?
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  I want to see this year's LRC produce one of those before I
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  get excited about it, because there hasn't really been one.
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  Very interesting, very interesting.
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  I think it's going to be really cool to see this weather pattern
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  breakdown over the rest of winter and as we kind of plan
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  out into spring of what that spring rainfall is then going to
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  look like. Because if we have a dry winter,
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  is that also going to produce a dry spring?
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  And if we have a dry spring, we all know that that's some area
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  for concern for a lot of areas. We all want to get some good
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  moisture over the winter, but spring is definitely an area
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  that we need to get that as well.
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  I agree with you in that it's going to be pretty warm here in
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  Kansas next week, but then it's going to get really cold after
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  that. So I'm trying to mentally
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  prepare myself for the really freezing temps like we've been
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  in the 30s and 40s, which is tolerable, right?
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  Like I can get out on a morning walk with the dogs and the, when
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  it's like 35 and just bundle up, put my heated vest on and, and
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  I'm OK, I'm OK. But when that wind starts
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  blowing and it starts getting like 4° zero in the negatives,
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  I'm like, oh, I don't like this anymore.
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  I'm, I'm over it. I'm done.
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  Yeah, We have to watch that phase two-part of the pattern
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  that is due in about 10 days. We'll talk about it next week.
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  But that that that part of the pattern could bring a big winter
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  storm and a cold blast, but right around holiday week.
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  So maybe there's a chance of a white Christmas.
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  We'll see. That would be very exciting
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  because we have not gone very much snow here in Kansas.
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  We got that one storm a few weeks ago, but that has kind of
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  been it. So it's been a abnormally warm
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  and abnormally dry December for us so far.
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  So try not to jinx us too much, because Lord knows that late
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  January and February is going to come and then I'm going to be
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  eating my words. But.
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  Then spring will coming. You'll be so happy.
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  Exactly. Then I'll be talking about the
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  light at the end of the tunnel, doing all the things right now
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  to beat that seasonal depression and really try and absorb the
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  absorb the nice days while we've got it.
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  Well, that's why you hit the road on the road, by the way, I
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  drove by dairy farms and some cattle ranchers, I'm sure.
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  And it was interesting is like there's a whole bunch of cattle
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  here that a whole bunch of cattle there.
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  And then I passed this dairy farm and it's like it was just
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  really interesting driving across Nebraska.
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  And for me, I was not bored on my ride at all.
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  I love driving across and seeing all the all the landscaping in
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  Nebraska and Kansas. I know some people say it's
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  boring going across Kansas, but it's it's a, it isn't,
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  especially when there's clouds in the sky and when there's
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  tumbleweeds pounding your car and then just tumbleweeds.
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  But it was, it was pretty treacherous fun ride out there.
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  But yeah, it was good to see all the the cattle and see all the
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  fields and all the cornfields and, and I talked to Nebraska
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  Cornhuskers. I love it.
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  I love it. Well, Gary, are there any other
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  kind of highlights within the winter weather forecast that we
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  haven't hit on? A lot of things go over in the
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  next few weeks, but one thing to watch for is this.
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  The remember there's two phases. The phase of the weather pattern
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  that brings the storm systems into the West Coast.
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  I'm waiting for that return. So it might be a really long
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  cycle because it hasn't returned yet and it should by around the
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  20th. So Christmas getting into close
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  to Christmas week, we'll look for a storm hitting California
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  again. Then we got to watch that
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  because that could be a big storm for the players, ice and
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  snow. So we'll look at that next week.
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  We should have an idea if that's happening.
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  Wonderful, wonderful. Well, to all of our listeners
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  out there, if you want more information on the winter
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  weather forecast, I have Gary's YouTube video linked down below
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  where you can go check that out on his channel as well and all
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  of the Weather 2020 links down there.
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  Gary, as always, thank you so much for your time.
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  And to all of our listeners, we will see you all next time on
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  another episode of the Cattle USA Daily Podcast.
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  We'll see you all next time.