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College Football Week 8 BEST BETS | Fading Last Week's Heroes?! · Toadstool Sports

• 0:02
  Speaker 1: Last week, college football, it seemed like every single top
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: 10 team went down. So if you know the way
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: that I handicap, you might think, well, that means that
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: I'm going to be having a field day this weekend.
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: I'm going to be having a lot of letdown spots.
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: The teams are going to be in. I will say
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: it's not as many as you might think. You might
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: not know where I'm going with this. I will have
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: around the average amount of plays here. I'm going to
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: give up four college football plays here for tomorrow. We
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: only have a couple of actual huge games, ranked teams.
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: The biggest one, Ole Miss at Texas. I will give
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: you my opinions on that game and on the other
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: ranked matchup, which is Houston and Utah, believe it or not.
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: All that and more coming up on College Football Week
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: 8 edition of Toadstool Sports. I can't even talk. Let's go.
• 1:09
  Speaker 2: You got a slip in your palm and a hole
• 1:12
  Speaker 2: in your chest Black coffee on the felt, man, you
• 1:16
  Speaker 2: look like a mess Three-team parlay turned to dust in
• 1:21
  Speaker 2: your hand Now you stare at the chips like they
• 1:24
  Speaker 2: made you this man But don't you go quiet, don't
• 1:28
  Speaker 2: you fade from the floor Your name still means something
• 1:32
  Speaker 2: to somebody for sure Put the glass down.
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: Baby.
• 1:37
  Speaker 3: Look at me now Hold on, hold.
• 1:46
  Speaker 4: On Not tonight, not now Hold on, hold on Let
• 1:55
  Speaker 4: me pull you out That fella fights hard But he
• 2:03
  Speaker 4: don't get the crown Hold on, hold.
• 2:10
  Speaker 3: On, stay with me now.
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: What's up, everybody? It's Toad back with you. Toadstool Sports
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: College Football Week 8. Going to give out some plays here.
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: We're going to run down most of the games like
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: I usually do. All the ranked matchups, all the TV games.
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: It's going to take me Two and a half hours
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: to do it. Hopefully it doesn't take that long. I'm
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: going to give out four plays that I think are solid.
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: It's my card for tomorrow. Aside from the other sports
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: that are being played tomorrow that I have not even
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: analyzed yet. I analyze it last minute, man. It's what
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: I do. But I have my ideas that I build
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: up through the week, though. So two of the plays
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: I'm going to give out were plays that were almost
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: definitively going to be plays for me. There was another
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: one that I wound up dropping yesterday. I'll talk about it.
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: I'll tell you what my other strongest leans are here
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: on the show. One of them may or may not
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: be in one of the biggest games, so let's get
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: into it.
• 3:14
  Speaker 5: All right.
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: College football, let's go. Tomorrow, ESPN, we kick off the
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: action at noon as usual with this ACC matchup. Pittsburgh
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: at number one, Miami. This one, I didn't have a
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: great feel for this game. Let's just put it that way.
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: Pitt has lost two in a row, but last week,
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: I mean, they looked ugly last week. And I told
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: you I liked BC last week. Pitt was, I thought,
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: in a bad spot, like basically a sandwich spot, as
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: they had taken their first loss of the season in
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: the week before that against North Carolina. And a lot
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: of times when a team is rolling and they're undefeated,
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: they take that first loss. It can cause a hangover effect.
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: They can get hung over into the next game. Having
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: to go to kind of an unfamiliar place, venue, really.
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: Even though they're in the ACC, they don't go up
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: there that often, I don't think, to BC. They kind
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: of got caught, and I thought Pitt would be looking
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: ahead to Miami. That is the sandwich. When you have
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: a game, it doesn't mean as much sandwiched in between
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: two more important games. Pitt got caught. They lost the game.
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: I think they were looking ahead, so you may get
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: a better effort from Pitt here in this game. We
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: got a low total in this one, so Pitt They
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: may be able to kind of hang around in this
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: game with their defense. We know that their offense may
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: not be that great. Their quarterback, I think, is out
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: for the season at this point, Heinzel, who was their
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: starting quarterback. He's been out for a couple of games now,
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: I believe. As far as Miami is concerned, yeah, they're
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: rolling along. They're undefeated, but I'm not exactly impressed by
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: their resume here. Their best win, I guess, was going
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: into Clemson and annihilating them, but other than that, Not
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: that impressive. They didn't look good last week either. They
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: were a three-touchdown favorite against Florida State. And I told you,
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: I thought Florida State was going to be up for
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: that game. I liked Florida State to cover. They did.
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: They almost won the game. So Miami is actually coming
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: off a big scare as a big favorite. And that
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: was a huge game for Florida State. It's a big
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: rivalry between those two teams. And I think Florida State
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: gets more up for it right now. Or maybe just
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: in general they do because they're really the little brother
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: throughout history in that rivalry. And if you saw the
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: way that game ended, it was an overtime game, and
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: Florida State had like a Hail Mary that they'd completed,
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: and it got called back on a holding call. Although
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: I believe they were going to need a two-point conversion afterwards,
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: because they were down eight, so that had cut it
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: to two, and they were going to need to get
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: a two-point conversion. But the holding call, which was a
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: BS call, sent it back, And then Florida ran another
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: Hail Mary, but from 10 yards for the back, and
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: obviously they were not able to complete the job on
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: that next one. It was just completely ridiculous. I mean,
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: am I saying that Florida State definitely should have won
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: the game? No, I'm not saying that. But that holding
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: call was ridiculous. Yes, it's kind of a fluke that
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: you complete that long ball on that Hail Mary, but whatever.
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: I don't want to take too long analyzing these games,
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: which I always do because I've got a lot to say.
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: I'm long-winded. But what I'm saying is that Miami should
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: be in a bit of a focus spot as well
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: after that because when you have a team that's a
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: big favorite and they almost lose like that, it's kind
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: of a scare. And I think maybe they overlooked Florida
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: State a little bit there. Maybe they're looking ahead because
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: Pitt has been better, one of the better teams in
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: this conference this year. So I think both teams actually
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: got caught in a flat spot last week. So that
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: means both teams are probably going to be focused here.
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: So what do we do with this game? I mean, Miami,
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: they're ranked number one in the country. They're not actually
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: the best team in the country. I think they're a
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: top several team probably, but they're not the best. And again,
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: I don't think their resume is very impressive at all.
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: So I think the jury is still out on this Miami,
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: this version of Miami that we have this year with
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: Mensah as their quarterback and whatever. I think I will
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: lean towards Pitt in this game. You know you're going
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: to be getting no value laying the points with Miami
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: because you're laying 20 and a half here, although if
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: you like Pitt, you miss the 21, which is obviously
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: a key number in football, the three touchdowns, and this
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: crossed through that number. It was 22 and a half.
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: Money has come in towards the Pitt side, it looks like,
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: to drop this thing through that key number to 20.5,
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: and it takes a lot of money to go through
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: a key number. So I think the real money did
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: come in that way, even though we see 70% of
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: tickets and 76% of the money on Miami. Miami's a
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: public side, and we do not have a high total here,
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: like I said, and the total has actually dropped as well.
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: Money looks to be pretty strong on the under in
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: this game. It's already dropped from 51 and a half
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: through a key number of 51 all the way down
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: to 48 and a half. And I think it's much
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: more difficult for the favorite. I mean, it just is
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: much more difficult for a favorite to cover a huge
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: number like this when it's expected to be a low
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: scoring game. So if you're taking PIP. I think it's
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: really just a value play, basically. The line's probably just
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: too high on Miami. There isn't really a situation to
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: latch onto in this game, but I'll probably lean Pitt
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: just because of the values there, and you're taking a
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: huge underdog that does at least have a decent defense,
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: and it's a low total game, so every point is
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: worth more, and you're getting a lot of points with Pitt.
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: So that would be my thought on that game. Next
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: game up at noon, we're going to start pretty much
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: right away here with a play here. Noontime. Let's get
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: this done.
• 8:36
  Speaker 5: You want to know what I'm betting?
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: Yeah, nobody's going to like any of my plays. That's usual, though.
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: Just trust me, man. Trust the process. We're going to
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: take Michigan plus seven and a half against Indiana, number
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: six in the country, Indiana, which probably is about an
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: accurate ranking for them. Although I still don't know, man,
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: because this Indiana team, they're definitely not as good as
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: they were last year. They're not this championship Indiana team
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: this year. They're with Josh Hoover at quarterback now. I'm
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: still not sold on him, even though it seemed like
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: he cleaned up his main issue from last year, which
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: was he threw a lot of interceptions. With Kurt Cignetti there,
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: it seems like Hoover has not been making as many mistakes,
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: but still, Indiana. This is a really difficult spot for them.
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: They're rolling along the season, and really they have not
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: stepped up well. Their three most difficult games, which are
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: against Northwestern at home, at Nebraska, and last week at
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: home against Ohio State, they didn't win any of those
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: games by more than six. So they have not played
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: that well against these better teams that they've faced. And
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: as I'm implying, they have not covered a number like
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: this against any of the better teams that they've played
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: this year. And I'm going to say that Michigan is
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: on the level, at least, of a Northwestern, at the
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: very least. I think they're better than Northwestern. They're probably
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: not as good as Nebraska, and obviously they're not as
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: good as Ohio. State, but whatever. Looking at the scheduling
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: spot here, aside from the fact that I don't think
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: Indiana stepped up well, I know they haven't, against the
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: better opponents they've faced. They just took their first loss,
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: and it was in their biggest game of the season.
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: They lost to Ohio State. That was a monster game
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: last week for Indiana. Not only did they lose, but
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: they made the comeback late. It was a low-scoring, tough, physical,
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: brutal game. And Indiana basically had a wide-open receiver for
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: a potential touchdown that would have won them the game,
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: or at least put them ahead with not much time
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: left at the end. And Josh Hoover misplaced the pass,
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: and I think the receiver also didn't realize exactly where
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: he was, and he caught it. There was nobody even
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: near him. It was a defensive misplay on the part
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: of Ohio State, but the receiver caught it out of bounds,
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: like to the side of the end zone pretty much.
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: Pretty much inexcusable, to be honest, for Indiana to do that.
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: When your play works and quarterback and receiver both kind
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: of make a mistake there that's really just kind of unacceptable.
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: And that's how Indiana lost that game. Ridiculous. So I
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: think they're going to be in a huge flat spot
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: after that. I don't see how they get back up
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: off the mat after that, man. You have the national
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: title winner from last year rolling along undefeated, biggest game
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: of the season, close physical matchup, but they get beat up.
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: They look like they may have the win in the
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: game late. And they blow it. How do you get
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: back up off the mat after that? And just a
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: first loss of the season alone, like I said, can
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: hang a team over into the next game. But it's
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: worse than that for Indiana. As I said, because it
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: was their biggest game of the season and they almost
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: won it. Now they're coming off of that. And the
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: only comparable matchup they have here to this Michigan road
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: game was when they went to Nebraska and they Really
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: got all they could handle in that game and only
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: won the game by three. Going into the big house
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: is not going to be easy at all. Michigan is
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: a defensive team here. I think Michigan is going to
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: be able to at least keep this game lower scoring
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: and keep it ugly here. And as far as Michigan
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: is concerned... Michigan just got back on the right track
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: last week with a win, and it was not an
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: impressive win against a Penn State team that's really just
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: completely falling apart again that looks like they're not really
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: that good again. So that's not really a win that's
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: going to make you overconfident, but it's just going to
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: end that losing streak for you. So I think that
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: should give Michigan some confidence coming into this game, break
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: the losing streak, not make them overconfident. And they didn't
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: even cover. They were like an almost touchdown favorite in
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: that game. didn't cover, had an ugly game. Absolutely nobody's
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: going to want Michigan here. Everybody's going to expect Indiana
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: to bounce back. It looks pretty easy to lay Indiana
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: at around a touchdown price here. I'm telling you that
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: is not the approach here. Michigan is the right way
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: to play this. Indiana, 57% of tickets on them, 51%
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: of the cash on Michigan. We're getting the good number
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: here with the hook. You might have to pay a
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: slight amount of juice for this, but I would pay
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: probably up even maybe up to about minus 120 even
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: to get the 7.5. And I don't think you have
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: to pay that much for this. So get the hook.
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: At the very least, play it plus 7. But, yeah,
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: we'll take Michigan here. It's also a low total. We're
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: looking at– where am I looking? I lost my place here.
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: We're looking at 42.5 basically, so it's a low total. So, again,
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: low total game. Every point is worth more. So taking
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: the underdog makes more sense and is a better idea here.
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: in a game like this with a low total. So
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: that's what we're doing. We're taking Michigan. And by the way,
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: Indiana has Minnesota up next. And I'm not going to
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: say they're going to overlook Michigan necessarily. I just think
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: this is a game where Indiana is just going to
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: have nothing left in the tank here. But Minnesota's next
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: for Indiana. And they actually have a better record right
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: now than Michigan does. So I guess you could possibly
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: make the argument that maybe they'll consider that to be
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: a bigger game. Although I wouldn't make that argument because
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: going into Michigan and playing in Michigan is always huge.
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: But It's not even close to as big as what
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: Indiana just had to do. I think it's a huge
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: flat spot. The money seems to agree. They will take
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: Michigan plus the points there with the defensive home dog
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: in a good spot against a team in a bad spot.
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: Next up, we have number eight Texas Tech at Cincinnati
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: on Fox Sports 1. I'm not convinced that Texas Tech
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: is a top ten team. I don't think we've really
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: seen anything from them. so far to suggest that I
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: mean I know they're undefeated but their schedules been really
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: easy so far their last game they just destroyed Arizona
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: State but what can we really take away from that
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: I have no clue I mean again their best win
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: was basically the win against Houston and they almost lost
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: that game so that's not really that impressive this Texas
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: Tech team is not as good as they were last
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: year Now they have to go to kind of an
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: unfamiliar venue here and go to Cincinnati. Cincinnati's kind of
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: new to this conference, so it's a little bit of
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: a weird travel spot here. They may very well overlook
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: a Cincinnati team that hasn't really been that good this year.
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: And on deck, Texas Tech does have ranked Arizona ahead
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: who is one of the better teams in the Big
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: 12 right now. So there is the possibility they look
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: ahead to that. I don't want to call it an
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: Arizona sandwich because I don't really think Arizona State's good,
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: but it's a very satisfying win nonetheless when you win
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: by almost 30 points against anybody. And with this ranked
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: opponent on deck, weird travel spot, I think you've got
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: to lean towards Cincinnati here. Not going to be a
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: play for me or anything, but Cincinnati, they're coming off
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: a game last week where they had a really– it
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: was really a shootout at West Virginia and they wound
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: up losing the game. You know, maybe it is a
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: little bit difficult to get back up after a game
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: like that because you put in a lot of effort
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: in a crazy shootout like that and you almost win
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: the game. But I think any way you look at it, well,
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: the only, I guess the one way to look at
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: this would be that, you know, maybe Texas Tech had
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: to put in less effort to win in a blowout
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: last week. So yeah, I guess you could make the
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: argument that, well, Cincinnati's coming off a bigger effort game here.
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: And West Virginia, I guess, is sort of more of
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: a geographic rival of theirs but all that being said
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: Texas Tech's going to be laying too many points here
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: I think it could be a bounce back for us
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: Cincinnati I think Texas Tech may be in a position
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: where they won't really take Cincinnati that seriously Texas Tech's
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: got 63% of the tickets 69% of the cash on
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: them but all in all I think there'll be a
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: public side this is not a huge percentage of disparity
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: there to make me really think that real money is
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: on Texas Tech I don't think it really is they've
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: dropped from 12 and a half to 11 and a
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: half years so I'll be leaning towards Cincinnati and I
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: know I'm like all sides here I'm not much of
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: a totals guy whatsoever especially not in football really but
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: I mean if I have some opinion on the total
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: I'll talk about it I know I talk about it
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: more in like the isolated games because I have more
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: like it's just I can sink my teeth into it
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: more and focus on it more you know what I
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: mean all right What's next here? And if anybody wants
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: me to talk about any game that I'm skipping, I
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: could do that too, although I don't want this show
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: to take way too long. I talk about all the
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: big games, at least, and some of the ugly games
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: as well. Mostly skip the Mac games, though. I skip
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: the non-TV games pretty much, unless I actually have a
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: play on them, but I don't even think I have
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: so far this year. Maybe once or twice. Anyway, number
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: 18 LSU at Auburn is next on ABC, also at noon.
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: My read on this is just that Auburn, even though
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: they're normally going to get up for a big game
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: like this against LSU, I just don't know what Auburn's
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: going to have left in the tank after what they
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: did last week. They had a huge upset win of,
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: at the time, number one Georgia. That was a monster
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: win for Auburn. And Auburn, they don't typically pull off
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: wins of that caliber, and that was a monster win.
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: They were almost three touchdown underdogs in this game. They
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: also didn't actually play that well, as well as the
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: score would suggest. Georgia outgamed them by close to 100 yards,
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: but Georgia... was unfocused and made a bunch of mistakes.
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: They had three turnovers in the game. That obviously helped
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: Auburn get that thing done. So Auburn's coming off kind
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: of a misleading win, and it was a monster win.
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: Obviously their biggest win of the season. I just don't
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: know that they're going to have that much left in
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: the tank here. So I like LSU in this one.
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: My concerns would be that LSU... They're coming off a
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: game that was a satisfying win over a ranked Mississippi
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: State team, at least, and they bounced Mississippi State from
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: the rankings. And my bigger concern with LSU is they
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: have their biggest game, debatably, on deck, which is against Alabama,
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: which is always a huge game, although it will be
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: after a bye. So if it's after a bye, maybe
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: they won't look ahead to it as much, but that
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: would be my concern, is that LSU might have one
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: eye looking ahead. But if you're going to play this game,
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: this game almost made the cut for me because it's
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: such a massive letdown spot for Auburn here. I would
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: only lay the points with LSU in this one. See,
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: I'm not all underdogs, man. LSU looks like they're not
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: even the public side here, so that makes me like
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: them more. 53% of the tickets are on Auburn, 67%
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: of the cash on LSU. If you like LSU, I
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: think you should try to find the seven. It's going
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: to be juiced a little bit now, though, because the
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: real money is coming in on LSU, and the public's
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: not strong enough on Auburn to... Keep this line down.
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: So I would try to find a seven and not
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: lay the seven and a half if you're going to
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: play LSU here. The sevens are out there, although they're
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: a little bit juiced for the most part. But that
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: is the way that I would play that game if
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: I was going to do it. And that one's one
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: of my stronger opinions. That one almost made the cut
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: for me. Yeah, I mean, it's just such a huge
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: letdown spot, I think, for Auburn. LSU almost made the
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: cut for me.
• 19:49
  Speaker 5: All right.
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: California at number 23, SMU on.
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: The CW Network. Cal, you know, I mean, this is
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: an ACC matchup. It always feels weird. Cal coming off
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: a blowout loss at home to Wake Forest. Now they're
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: going to travel east and play a noontime game. I
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: know a lot of people talk about that. Oh, yeah,
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: the West Coast team going east, having to play like
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: an early start time game. It's at like 9 a.m.
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: based on their biological clock. But I'm not going to
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: say that's not a negative because I think it is
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: still a negative, but I think it's not that much
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: of a negative. I think people... overrate how much of
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: a negative that is, and I always talk about how
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: I think the opposite is way worse. An East Coast
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: team going West, which I believe I have one on
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: my TV. Oh, you can't see it in my new
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: window here. I always have my TV on over here,
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: and that's the NC State-Stanford game right now, I believe,
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: and NC State not looking good there. So another case
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: of an East Coast team playing a late-night game out West.
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: I think that's the worst type of spot, and I
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: may be referencing that later in the show when we
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: talk about the night games. But I think the The
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: reason that's bad is because you're playing biologically. You're playing
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: really late at night when you start really getting tired.
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: Whereas I think it's actually easier than that, at least,
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: to play early. You know what I mean? Because you
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: get up, you have your energy and whatever. People work
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: out in the morning for that reason. People don't work
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: out at midnight unless they're psychopaths. You know what I mean?
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: So I think it is still better. It's better to
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: be a West Coast team going east than it is
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: to be an East Coast team going West. Let's put
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: it that way. Cal is having to go East here
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: to play in what is an unfamiliar venue for them, though,
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: because they're new to the ACC, and SMU really is, too.
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: So Cal having to play in Dallas is not that
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: familiar of a spot to them. SMU is actually ranked
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: right now, by the way, at 23rd. Obviously, they will
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: be the favorite here in this game. SMU had a
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: decent win over Virginia in their last game. I just
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: don't have much on this particular game at all, man.
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: It looks like Possibly both teams will show up focused
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: to some extent here. The market read is saying to
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: take the points with Cal here. SMU, 64% of the
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: tickets on them, 54% of the cash on Cal. SMU's
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: a 19.5-point favorite here. Total's kind of a mid-range total
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: in the mid-50s. Yeah, I mean, when I have no
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: other real read on the game, I will kind of
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: lean into the market read there. So I guess I
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: would say I'll lean towards taking the points with Cal here.
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: even though it is an unfamiliar spot to them, I
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: think at the very least you can make the argument that,
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: you know, you're not going to get any value on
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: the SMU side, like, cause they're the ranked team with
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: a better record. So the odds makers know the public's
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: going to be on that side at the very least.
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: So they'll shade the number at least a little bit
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: in that direction. So just value wise, I think Cal, uh,
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: would be the way to look in that game, but
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: I have no real situation, uh, That I can look
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: at as far as that game is concerned. So I
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: guess you maybe can make the argument that SMU. Because
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: they're coming off a win over a decent Virginia team.
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: Cal coming off an embarrassing loss. That might have Cal
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: a bit more focused here than SMU is. So that
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: would I guess be the situational argument for Cal here.
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: SMU only has Syracuse on deck. Not really a big
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: deal there.
• 23:06
  Speaker 5: So.
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: All right. Still in the noon slate, Rutgers at number 24,
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: Northwestern on Peacock. Really seems weird that Northwestern is ranked second.
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: I'm not sure that Northwestern is quite that good, although
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: they did look pretty good against Indiana, surprisingly. But other
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: than that, they have not faced a difficult schedule so far.
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: They've won most of their games by a pretty strong margin,
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: except last week when they almost lost to Michigan State.
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: And Michigan State, I believe, was winning that game late
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: in the game, and Northwestern was able to sneak by them.
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: Not a good performance from Northwestern. So a lot of
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: times when you have a team like Northwestern here that's
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: coming off a game like that where they almost lose
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: as a favorite, they will bounce back in the next
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: game because they get a scare. Northwestern potentially could be
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: looking ahead to Oregon here. I mean, Oregon, I think
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: they're better than an unranked team, and Oregon still has
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: a good record. So maybe Northwestern will have one eye
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: looking ahead here, but that bad performance against Michigan State
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: might kind of shock them into focus. However, they might
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: be a little bit overrated here at number 24. I'm
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: not convinced that they're really a top 25 team here.
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: They're definitely better than Rutgers. Rutgers is playing a second
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: straight road game. Rutgers just played in Maryland, and now
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: they're having to travel out to Northwestern, to the Chicago
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: area here. Rutgers got the win at Maryland, although Maryland,
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: not a very good team either. Rutgers has Michigan on deck,
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: but I don't know if Rutgers is really going to
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: overlook anybody right now. They're not going to overlook a
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: ranked Northwestern team at the very least. It looks like
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: both teams should be focused here. Northwestern looks like they're
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: getting a pretty significant amount of the money. They're slightly public,
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: 65% of tickets, but 86% of the cash also on them.
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: They're about a 16 point favorite here. It's a high total, too,
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: which this matchup really doesn't feel to me like it's
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: a high-scoring game, and the money is coming in on
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: the under, but the Osmeagers are telling you something by
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: throwing a total in the high 50s out there, so
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: they don't think this is really going to be that low-scoring,
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: even though the money is back in the under to
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: a decent extent here. I guess I'll lean with the
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: market again and lean towards Northwestern because they're the better
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: team I think both teams should be focused here. Northwestern
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: maybe in a shocked back into focus spot like I discussed.
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: Rutgers maybe looked a little bit better last week with
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: their road win, and now they have to swing around
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: and play another road game. So I guess maybe the
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: money is sort of on the side that I would
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: agree with there with Northwestern. Not a strong opinion, though.
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: Also at noon, Eastern, ESPN2, West Virginia at TCU. West Virginia,
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: always kind of a weird spot for them to have
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: to go to a venue that's in Texas. It still
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: feels weird to have West Virginia in the Big 12.
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: West Virginia coming up that shootout win over Cincinnati last week.
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: You could definitely question what they have left in the
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: tank after a win like that, and what you could
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: definitely question is they have Texas Tech next. It is
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: after a bye, though, but still their next opponent will
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: be Texas Tech, so there is the possibility that They
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: kind of look ahead to that, so that would worry
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: me a little bit about the spot for West Virginia here.
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: TCU only sitting at 3-3, not exactly a team that
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: I think is going to get that much attention. TCU
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: is coming up a nice win. It looks like an
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: ugly win, though. They beat Baylor 17-6, but that's a
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: good win for TCU as far as they beat one
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: of their Texas rivals on the road. So that's a
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: decent win for TCU. I don't believe they're coming out
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: of a bye or anything here. although always good to
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: refresh my memory. No, they're not. Yeah, this is a
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: tough game to figure out, but I think West Virginia
• 26:46
  Speaker 1: will get way more credit for a high-scoring shootout win
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: than TCU will get for this ugly low-scoring win that
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: they had. But TCU's laying a ton of points here.
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: TCU is 56% of tickets on them, 54% of the cash, however,
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: coming in on the other side here on the West
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: Virginia side here, so the money slightly indicating towards West
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: Virginia here, but TCU initially moved up from a 7-point
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: spread to a 10.5, so that leads me to believe
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: there must be some injury on the West Virginia side, but...
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: I don't exactly know what the deal is. I don't
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: really see anything with the news here or whatever for them.
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: I don't know if they have a quarterback injury or
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: what the deal is with West Virginia. So there might
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: be maybe some numeric value on the West Virginia side
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: now that the line has moved to 10.5. If there
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: is an injury or whatever, sometimes the line will overreact
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: to something like that. But the spot to me... I
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: like TCU a little bit better as far as the
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: spot is concerned. And to me, you would think the
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: public would not be coming in and laying double digits
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: with a 3-3 team against, I believe, a 4-3 West
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: Virginia team. So that gives me a little bit of
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: pause here. When you see a team with the worst
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: record laying double digits, the Osmakers are telling you that
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: that team is actually the better team and that these
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: records are misleading. So Osmakers are telling you TCU is
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: the better team, but do you really want to lay
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: more than 10 points with them I mean, it's not
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: making the cut for me, I'll tell you that. If
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: you force me to give an opinion on the side there,
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: I guess I would lean towards laying the points with TCU,
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: but really don't love that game at all. Again, besides
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: the play that I gave out, my strongest opinion, my
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: only other opinion that I think is really strong so
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: far is the LSU side. All right. Rice at FAU
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: on ESPNU. This is on... at noon as well. This
• 28:37
  Speaker 1: is a TV game as well, as I said. Rice
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: has lost a bunch of games. They have not won
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: an FBS game all season, in fact. Rice, not a
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: good program, really. I mean, they're running a triple option
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: there because they don't have a lot of offensive talent here.
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: Coming off getting blasted by Tulsa last week. They're probably
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: at least going to get up for a game against
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: FAU because FAU's had a decent season so far. FAU
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: might be a little bit stalled out because they had
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: won four games in a row and then they lost
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: last week to Army. so that might give them a
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: little bit of a hangover, right? I talk about how
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: when a team loses a long win streak like that,
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: a lot of times they'll be hung over and FAU
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: has not really been that impressive so far. Um, they
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: got blown out by Florida, blown out by army. And
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: then I guess their best win is the one at
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: home against Navy. Cause I believe they're an underdog in
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: that one. And they hung on for the win. Uh,
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: they won against their rival FIU, who's a good deep mess.
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: So they can't play offense. Um, But what I will
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: say is that if you dig into this game, which
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: I talked about on my handicap for tonight, I don't
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: even want to talk about what's going on in that
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: game tonight if you dig into this game it was
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: a kind of a misleading result for FIU Army did
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: out gain them but FIU had three turnovers in the
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: game too so that really hurt FIU they just had
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: so many turnovers in the game that it made that
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: blowout loss look way worse than it really was Like statistically,
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: it was kind of a close loss for FAU there.
• 30:01
  Speaker 1: So in that respect, you know, maybe FAU will bounce
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: back here, but they do have North Texas on deck
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: and they may consider that to be a bigger game
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: because North Texas has a good offense and they've been
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: pretty good so far this season. So Florida Atlantic. The
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: money is actually backing Rice here pretty strongly. 51% of tickets,
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: 94% of the cash on them. FAU opened nine and
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: a half and they actually dropped down to about an
• 30:25
  Speaker 1: eight point favorite here. So Some money has come in
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: on Rice in this game, getting the points here. I
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: don't like it. I mean, I think if you get
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: FAU in kind of what I think is a bounce-back spot,
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: the better team off an embarrassing loss like that, I'd
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: be more inclined to want to lay the points in
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: that one. But again, not a strong opinion for me
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: at all. CBS Sports actually has a MAAC game, although
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: this is really, I think, the best two teams in
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: the MAAC, Western Michigan at Toledo, and this technically is
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: a revenge game for Toledo because they lost an ugly
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: low-scoring game last year at Western Michigan. I think Western
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: Michigan won that game 14-13 or something like that last year,
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: but that was a regular season matchup. Does that really
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: mean there's going to be a huge revenge motive here?
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: I don't really think so. But I think what this
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: game kind of boils down to is Toledo's the better
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: offense and Western Michigan's the better defense. I think that's
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: the way of going on in this game. Western Michigan,
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: they're reasonably battle-tested because they had that close game against
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: Michigan that we all remember. They played... quite well in
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: that game, really, at least on the defensive side of things.
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: They got blown out by Boise, though. That was the
• 31:37
  Speaker 1: other big opponent they faced, but if you remember my
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: season preview, I did like Western Michigan coming into the season.
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: I believe they did win the MAAC last year, though.
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: You can correct me if I'm wrong about that, but
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: that will put a target on their back, though, because
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: they did win the MAAC last year, and Toledo, I think,
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: was one of those. Toledo's always one of the better teams, really,
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: in the MAAC, but I think They were supposed to
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: win the MAAC last year, and they fell well short
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: of that goal last year. So maybe Toledo will have
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: a little bit more motivation for that reason. But Western Michigan,
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: they've been playing fairly well here. They've won all the
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: games they're supposed to win, and they've lost the two
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: games they're supposed to lose. So you can't really knock
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: them for any of that. Toledo, are they the better team?
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: I mean, the oddsmakers are telling you it's about even
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: because Toledo's a three-point home favorite, which is basically probably
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: about what they get for home field. Toledo coming off
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: an easy blowout win of Eastern Michigan last time out.
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: Not a bad win. Eastern Michigan's not that bad this year,
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: so with our dude Noah Kaniga there in Eastern Michigan.
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: So Toledo coming off that win, maybe a more satisfying
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: win for them than what Western Michigan did last week.
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: Western Michigan did beat one of their rivals, though, Central Michigan,
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: on the road. Although Central Michigan, not a very good team.
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: Western Michigan is the better team there. I think they
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: were the road favorite, most likely. I'm assuming, yeah, they
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: must have been. And they won that game. So both
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: teams are coming off wins as a favorite here. I
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: think this is a big game for both teams. The
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: money is indicating on Toledo. 55% of tickets, 83% of
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: the cash on them But the line did drop. It
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: was a three and a half line where it opened,
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: and some money did drive that down towards Western Michigan.
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: You could argue maybe it was a fake move, because
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: sometimes at the lower limit, sometimes professional bettors will come
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: in knowing that they have enough gravitas to cause the
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: bookmakers to move the line. They might come in and
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: play the side that they actually don't want at the
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: lower limit, and then they'll actually move. be intending on
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: coming back bigger on the side that they actually want,
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: if that makes sense. So their real bet is actually
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: not the initial bet that they made. Maybe that's what's
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: happening here, but the line has not moved back up.
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: It's still at about three on Toledo here. So, you know,
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: I kind of like the better defense. That's usually where
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: I lean when it's a game like this. Better defense,
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: getting points. I think I'd lean slightly towards Western Michigan here,
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: plus the points, but Not a strong opinion for me.
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: The market read right now is seemingly disagreeing with that
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: to some extent. It's kind of a low total, although
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: it's gone up a little bit. It's through the key
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: number of 47 now, up to 47.5, which makes it
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: a little bit less enticing to want to take points,
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: but I think that is what my lean would be there.
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: All right. As we keep going here, I'm trying to
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: time my hydration break here. This is the show that
• 34:26
  Speaker 1: takes the most effort, man. Takes the most out of
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: me until we get to college basketball, which is going
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: to be its own But we got, let's see, Baylor
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: and Kansas at 1 p.m. Eastern on TNT as we
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: move into the 1 p.m. slate here with only a
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: couple of games here. Interesting Big 12 matchup here. Kansas
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: is coming off a big game, though. They're coming off
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: their rivalry game against Kansas State, and they played Utah
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: the game before that and didn't embarrass themselves in either game.
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: So they're coming off two big games in a row.
• 34:56
  Speaker 1: So this could be a flat spot here. For Kansas,
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: even though I know they haven't won a conference game yet,
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: they're not having a good season. But, you know, they
• 35:04
  Speaker 1: got emotionally up for those last two games, right? And
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: they were both on the road. They went into Manhattan
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: to face their rival, Kansas State, who's really their big
• 35:12
  Speaker 1: brother in college football because Kansas State's basically always the
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: better program. And, you know, Kansas, they hung around in
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: this game. They were down one with like six minutes
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: left in the game. Or, excuse me, with... What is
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: going on here? I'm, like, misreading this here or something. Oh,
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: with eight minutes left in the game. Sorry, that was
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: the third quarter touchdown. I'm like, wait a minute. The
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: time stamp is wrong. Oh, wait, yeah, never mind. They
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: were going into the fourth quarter. They were only down one.
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: And then Kansas State put two touchdowns on the board
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: in the fourth quarter. One was really late, so it
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: was still a one-score game. Or, excuse me, they scored
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: a touchdown and a field goal, my mistake. But it
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: was a one-score game until that very late field goal
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: for Kansas State. What I'm trying to say is Kansas
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: is coming off a monster game, and they put in
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: a big effort there. So I think they might be
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: flat coming off that game like that. That was a
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: huge rivalry game for Kansas, and they were hanging around
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: in that game. Baylor had that ugly home loss to TCU.
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: Nobody's going to like the way that that loss looks.
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: I know Baylor lost a win streak, and I do
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: talk about how that could set you up for kind
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: of a hangover after that, but I just think that's
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: just such an ugly loss. Kansas' performance against Kansas State
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: looks way better, right? Like both teams lost, but the
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: higher scoring loss against a decent Kansas State team looks
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: a lot better. So because Kansas looked better last week,
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: and I think it sets up as a flat spot
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: for them here potentially, whereas I think Baylor might be
• 36:41
  Speaker 1: more of a bounce back spot of a really gross
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: performance against TCU. I like Baylor in this game. The
• 36:48
  Speaker 1: money doesn't seem to agree. Baylor is a one and
• 36:51
  Speaker 1: a half point favorite here. So odds makers telling you
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: they're the better team. favored on the road but it
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: looks like 54 of tickets and like 50 of the
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: cash on baylor but it's not really that strong of
• 37:01
  Speaker 1: a market read like both numbers around 50 50 not
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: a whole lot you can really tell looking at that
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: but yeah based on the situation i would prefer baylor
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: in that game dirty sock what's up thanks for hanging
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: out all right um where where are we going next
• 37:16
  Speaker 1: here Going to the 3 p.m. games here. Oregon and Illinois.
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: Big Ten Network. Oregon a double-digit road favorite here. To me,
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: I think Oregon, they might be getting too much shit
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: at this point. Just the way that they've looked the
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: last two games. Since Dante Moore got knocked out against USC. Yeah,
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: I get it. Oregon's defense has been putrid. I get it.
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: Dylan Raiola was awful against UCLA. But that UCLA team, man,
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: their defense is definitely legit. So... That's what we can
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: say about that. And Oregon just had so many turnovers
• 37:49
  Speaker 1: in that game that I had to play Oregon last
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: week thinking they would bounce back. And what happened in
• 37:53
  Speaker 1: that game? Well, Oregon went to Brock Thomas, their third-string quarterback,
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: and he was awful against Nebraska. And then Oregon put
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: Dylan Raiola in, and he was good. And he won
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: them the game at the end. If they had just
• 38:05
  Speaker 1: played Raiola the whole game, I think they probably would
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: have covered the game for us, man. I didn't really,
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: with my analysis on that game, I didn't actually care
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: which quarterback played, but I think that was a mistake.
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: I think Raiola should have just played against his former team.
• 38:21
  Speaker 1: He looked good in the fourth quarter when they put
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: him in, so he was J.J. McCarthy-ing it out there.
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: So because of that, the obvious decision is that Oregon's
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: going to start Raiola in this game, and he's the
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: more experienced QB anyway. But now because Oregon's coming off
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: just gross performances against I think you're going to get
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: a more focused Oregon team here, man. And plus now
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: that they kind of know who their quarterback is, I
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: think going into last week, one thing about Oregon was
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: that they were kind of in this situation where it's like, well,
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: who's our quarterback going to be? But, and that can
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: kind of affect the team's mental state, right? Cause it's
• 38:55
  Speaker 1: almost like you're in the state of flux. Like you
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: don't know who your leader is. You know what I mean?
• 39:01
  Speaker 1: But now if it's definitively Ryola, okay, good. Now we
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: can move forward. We know it's going to be him.
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: The game plan is going to be designed for him.
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: Let's go. Coming off a couple of ugly games here.
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: This Oregon team may be undervalued right now based on
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: how ugly they looked in the last two games. And remember,
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: when they started the season, they were one of the top.
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: They're considered to be one of the top teams in
• 39:22
  Speaker 1: college football. And I get it more being out is
• 39:25
  Speaker 1: a big deal. But still, I think that the... the
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: stock is a little bit low on Oregon right now,
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: I would say. And the fact that they're laying 10
• 39:34
  Speaker 1: points tells you something here. The Ozmakers are telling you
• 39:37
  Speaker 1: they're still way better than this garbage Illinois team here.
• 39:40
  Speaker 1: Illinois is not impressing me at all, as I keep saying.
• 39:43
  Speaker 1: They did get a win last week against Michigan State,
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: so all right, give them credit for that, I guess,
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: on the road. And I get it. You could argue
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: that Oregon has not been good on the road. They
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: lost at Oklahoma State. But they won at USC, though, right? Yeah.
• 39:57
  Speaker 1: They won at USC. But those games were both with
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: Dante Moore, a quarterback. But I guess what you could
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: argue is that it's a weird travel spot for Oregon, right?
• 40:06
  Speaker 1: Like these former Pac-12 teams that are now in the
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: Big Ten and whatever, going east to kind of these
• 40:13
  Speaker 1: unfamiliar venues, unfamiliar travel, I get it. It's not that
• 40:16
  Speaker 1: good for them. But at least this is kind of
• 40:19
  Speaker 1: a good time for them to play. It's 3 p.m.,
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: so they'll be playing noon on their biological clock, so
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: that should be fine for them. The question is, how
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: focused are they going to be, and is their offense
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: going to be back in rhythm? I think if it is,
• 40:32
  Speaker 1: they should be able to win this game and cover
• 40:35
  Speaker 1: against Illinois, but I guess the other problem is that
• 40:37
  Speaker 1: was still a big game against Nebraska. Nebraska's had a
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: good season, man, so that was still kind of a
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: big game. The previous... Really, you could argue their last
• 40:46
  Speaker 1: three games were all big against USC, UCLA, and Nebraska,
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: and then they do have two big games on deck,
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: Northwestern and Ohio State, so.
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: I guess there is an argument to be made here.
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: This is a sandwich spot, but I don't know, man,
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: because I'm just hearing so much hate for Oregon right now.
• 41:04
  Speaker 1: You know, this is a tough game to figure out.
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: My instinct was telling me that Oregon might be the
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: right side here, but the market read is definitely not
• 41:12
  Speaker 1: saying that. 58% of the tickets are on Oregon. I
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: did not expect Oregon to be a public side, and
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: they're not really. But it looks like the real money
• 41:20
  Speaker 1: is coming in on Illinois. 70% of the cash, such
• 41:24
  Speaker 1: that the opener of 10.5 is already down about 10 here.
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: So the hook has dropped from the number, at least.
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: So there's been some money coming in on Illinois here,
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: at least enough to... Get it down to 10. If
• 41:37
  Speaker 1: you do like Illinois, you should take at least 10.
• 41:41
  Speaker 1: Although I would say if you like Oregon, you should
• 41:44
  Speaker 1: actually try to probably find a 9.5. If you really
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: like Oregon, you might be able to find it. It
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: looks like the different books have different numbers kind of
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: all over the place in this game. It's kind of
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: a low total, so I will warn about that. The
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: total's dropped a little bit down to 49, 48-ish. So
• 42:01
  Speaker 1: usually you do want to take the points when it's
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: a lower total like that. And I understand this Oregon
• 42:06
  Speaker 1: offense has looked completely out of rhythm the last two games. But,
• 42:11
  Speaker 1: I mean, let's be real about this. Illinois is way
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: worse than UCLA and Nebraska, okay? You know what I mean?
• 42:17
  Speaker 1: This Illinois defense is considerably worse than those two teams.
• 42:20
  Speaker 1: So Oregon should be able to get something going offensively.
• 42:24
  Speaker 2: And, you know.
• 42:26
  Speaker 1: Maybe a better way to play this, because the money
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: is coming in on the over in this game, even
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: though it's a lower total here. Maybe Oregon over team
• 42:33
  Speaker 1: total makes sense, because their offense has put up nothing
• 42:36
  Speaker 1: the last two games. You know what I mean? I
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: don't know exactly what the number's going to be in
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: Oregon here, but maybe playing them to go over their
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: team total might be the move in this game. Although, again,
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: I'm not much of a team totals guy, but that seems...
• 42:49
  Speaker 1: You know, it seems like there might be some justification
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: for that, so... Yeah, maybe those would be my thoughts
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: on that game, but I don't know. My initial instinct
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: was to lay the points with Oregon as far as
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: the lean is concerned. Obviously, I don't want to touch
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: this game at all, though. And yeah, the money's coming
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: in on Illinois, though, fairly strongly. So do what you
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: want with that info. I mean, I understand the argument
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: for Illinois, right? So I don't feel strongly enough about
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: the Oregon situation to really justify that opinion. So maybe
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: I will actually, if you forced me to give you
• 43:21
  Speaker 1: a side there, maybe I would actually lean towards Illinois.
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: But yeah, that game is really tough to figure out.
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: A game that I don't think is tough to figure out, Fox, 3.30 p.m. Eastern,
• 43:30
  Speaker 1: number two, BYU at UCF. You know what we're about
• 43:33
  Speaker 1: to do.
• 43:34
  Speaker 5: You want to know what I'm betting?
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: I'm going to play that clip until it gets really annoying.
• 43:41
  Speaker 1: You know what we're going to do here. Initially, this
• 43:43
  Speaker 1: line was sitting around six and a half, but it's
• 43:45
  Speaker 1: finally gone up to seven, seven and a half here.
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: We're going to take UCF plus seven and a half
• 43:51
  Speaker 1: against number two, BYU. Come on, man. Number two, are
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: you serious? BYU? Does anybody, at least anybody who should
• 44:01
  Speaker 1: be taken seriously, think that BYU is the second best
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: team in the country? Like, give me a break, dude.
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: Give me a break. Like, you know.
• 44:12
  Speaker 1: Break me off a piece of that Kit Kat bar,
• 44:14
  Speaker 1: I guess. Whatever. Halloween's coming up. I do like Kit Kats,
• 44:17
  Speaker 1: by the way. BYU is clearly overrated, okay? They're still down.
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: They're starting running back. LJ Martin and the rushing attack
• 44:26
  Speaker 1: has not really looked that good without him. But they're
• 44:29
  Speaker 1: coming off a monster game, which is why they're ranked
• 44:31
  Speaker 1: number two in the country. They just beat Notre Dame, okay?
• 44:34
  Speaker 1: And I know I kind of leaned to Notre Dame
• 44:36
  Speaker 1: in that game. I did not think that BYU was
• 44:40
  Speaker 1: going to be able to step up and do that,
• 44:41
  Speaker 1: even though there were some arguments that Notre Dame would
• 44:44
  Speaker 1: be kind of out of their element there because Notre
• 44:47
  Speaker 1: Dame having to go to an unfamiliar venue in a
• 44:49
  Speaker 1: night game where BYU does kind of play well at
• 44:51
  Speaker 1: night there, and it's in high elevation for a team
• 44:54
  Speaker 1: that's not used to playing in high elevation, whatever it was, Remember,
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: I said at the start of the season that was
• 44:59
  Speaker 1: going to be Notre Dame's hardest game, their toughest game.
• 45:02
  Speaker 1: Not the home game against Miami, no. In colder weather
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: against what I think is kind of a questionable Miami team, no.
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: The game at BYU I thought was their... most difficult game.
• 45:15
  Speaker 1: And yeah, sure enough, they actually lost the game outright.
• 45:18
  Speaker 1: But now because of that, everybody's going to be high
• 45:20
  Speaker 1: on BYU. Number two in the country is frankly a joke.
• 45:24
  Speaker 1: They're maybe like a top 15 team at this point. Again,
• 45:28
  Speaker 1: they're without their best running back and they haven't looked
• 45:30
  Speaker 1: that good without him. Yes, I'll give them their physical
• 45:33
  Speaker 1: team and I'll give them their quarterback, Bachmeier's playing well.
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: But I still think their offense is a bit one-dimensional,
• 45:39
  Speaker 1: even though Bachmeier does run the football as well. But
• 45:43
  Speaker 1: this spot just looks like such a massive letdown to me, man.
• 45:47
  Speaker 1: That was a historic win for BYU. winning against a
• 45:51
  Speaker 1: historic program like Notre Dame, who was ranked number two
• 45:54
  Speaker 1: in the country. That was BYU's what we call the
• 45:56
  Speaker 1: legitimizer game, which is Marco D'Angeloism, one of the handicappers
• 46:01
  Speaker 1: I've learned the most from. Maybe it didn't come from
• 46:03
  Speaker 1: him initially, but when you have a team that just
• 46:05
  Speaker 1: doesn't have that signature win yet, even though they're undefeated,
• 46:09
  Speaker 1: they're being questioned, well, now it's like, well, nobody's going
• 46:11
  Speaker 1: to question us now. We just beat Notre Dame, you
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: know what I mean? And now we're number two in
• 46:16
  Speaker 1: the country. Well, I'm going to come in and question
• 46:18
  Speaker 1: you now because now BYU has to go all the
• 46:20
  Speaker 1: way to Orlando, Florida. And by the way, BYU barely
• 46:24
  Speaker 1: covered both of their road games so far against Colorado
• 46:27
  Speaker 1: State and TCU. Not exactly the cream of the crop there,
• 46:31
  Speaker 1: especially not Colorado State. BYU only covered in each of
• 46:35
  Speaker 1: those games basically by about a half point on what
• 46:38
  Speaker 1: the closing line was there. So not impressive when they've
• 46:41
  Speaker 1: gone on the road. Now they've got to go to
• 46:42
  Speaker 1: a venue they're not really familiar with, going all the
• 46:44
  Speaker 1: way to UCF here, coming off a monster, monster game,
• 46:49
  Speaker 1: like one of their biggest games in history, really. And
• 46:52
  Speaker 1: UCF had a bye last week. So you're going to
• 46:55
  Speaker 1: get a rested UCF team here, and it was indeed
• 46:58
  Speaker 1: a bye that they went into on a bad note.
• 47:01
  Speaker 1: So that's what I like. I don't like playing on
• 47:03
  Speaker 1: teams that went into the bye on a good note,
• 47:05
  Speaker 1: because I think it could disrupt their momentum. But for UCF,
• 47:09
  Speaker 1: They lost to Houston and Oklahoma State going into the bye.
• 47:11
  Speaker 1: Those are their two biggest games of the season that
• 47:14
  Speaker 1: they played up to that point. And they played fairly well.
• 47:17
  Speaker 1: They lost by 10-14, both on the road, by the way.
• 47:21
  Speaker 1: So that's not that bad. Those results are not that
• 47:23
  Speaker 1: bad for UCF. Then they had a bye, and now
• 47:26
  Speaker 1: this is going to be their homecoming game, by the way.
• 47:28
  Speaker 1: And I am going to fade a team in their
• 47:30
  Speaker 1: homecoming game later on, but the homecoming should pump it
• 47:34
  Speaker 1: up a little bit, pump up the atmosphere a little
• 47:37
  Speaker 1: bit here as far as... Yeah, the crowd's just going
• 47:42
  Speaker 1: to be going crazy for it.
• 47:43
  Speaker 5: You know what I mean?
• 47:43
  Speaker 1: Even though it's not a night game, so it'll be
• 47:45
  Speaker 1: a little bit less crazy than that. But they call
• 47:47
  Speaker 1: this venue the Bounce House. I think because everybody, I
• 47:50
  Speaker 1: don't know. Jump Around is the Wisconsin thing, though. They
• 47:53
  Speaker 1: play the House of Pain song. I don't know exactly
• 47:55
  Speaker 1: why it's the Bounce House here. I've never been to
• 47:58
  Speaker 1: UCF's football stadium, but whatever. Probably because people still do
• 48:03
  Speaker 1: something where they jump all over the place. I have
• 48:05
  Speaker 1: no idea, but whatever. I think UCF's going to use
• 48:08
  Speaker 1: this bye to their advantage. They went into the bye
• 48:10
  Speaker 1: on a bad note. And the good thing is they
• 48:12
  Speaker 1: battle-tested themselves. And while I know UCF has lost their
• 48:16
  Speaker 1: three biggest games, step-up games against Pitt, Houston, Oklahoma State,
• 48:21
  Speaker 1: they beat TCU at home, at least. All three of
• 48:24
  Speaker 1: their losses came on the road, though. So UCF is
• 48:26
  Speaker 1: undefeated at home, and I get it. Their biggest game
• 48:29
  Speaker 1: at home was against TCU. That's not that impressive, but...
• 48:33
  Speaker 1: You're still talking about an undefeated home team, and here
• 48:35
  Speaker 1: you're getting a ton of points. And as far as BYU,
• 48:39
  Speaker 1: BYU has not been battle-tested, really. Like I was talking about,
• 48:42
  Speaker 1: their biggest game was the Notre Dame one, by far.
• 48:45
  Speaker 1: Their best win besides that was against Arizona. They won
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: by 11. But both those games were at home for BYU,
• 48:52
  Speaker 1: and Arizona was kind of hanging around in that game, man.
• 48:55
  Speaker 1: So BYU, again, not really that impressive here. I just think... Simply,
• 49:00
  Speaker 1: it's a massive letdown spot for BYU, but UCF coming
• 49:04
  Speaker 1: out of what I think is an advantageous buy. So
• 49:07
  Speaker 1: while BYU was putting up their biggest win maybe in
• 49:11
  Speaker 1: program history, UCF was just resting. And BYU now has
• 49:16
  Speaker 1: to travel all the way to Orlando for this. Good luck.
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: to them. Yeah, I like UCF a lot in this one.
• 49:24
  Speaker 1: That's all I'll say about that. But yeah, obviously you
• 49:27
  Speaker 1: know that I feel strongly about it. 68% of the
• 49:30
  Speaker 1: tickets on BYU, only 54% of the cash. It opened
• 49:32
  Speaker 1: at 6.5. It's up to 7.5 now. And I was
• 49:33
  Speaker 1: talking about how I mean, I always talk about this,
• 49:39
  Speaker 1: but when how lines are just sitting at seven for
• 49:42
  Speaker 1: most of the week, even though the public's coming in
• 49:44
  Speaker 1: on that side, that tells you something, the odds makers
• 49:47
  Speaker 1: or the bookmakers, whichever you want to, however you want
• 49:51
  Speaker 1: to phrase it. I mean, they work in tandem basically
• 49:53
  Speaker 1: when they don't want to move the line more towards
• 49:56
  Speaker 1: where the public is. That tells you something. They're just
• 49:59
  Speaker 1: okay with taking all that action on the favorite. Um,
• 50:03
  Speaker 1: So they finally gave in, and they did move it
• 50:05
  Speaker 1: to 7.5, but I love the spot, so okay, give
• 50:09
  Speaker 1: me the hook on the 7.5. I mean, it's not
• 50:12
  Speaker 1: a hard and fast rule as far as, oh, if
• 50:14
  Speaker 1: it's 6.5, you've got to take the underdog or whatever,
• 50:17
  Speaker 1: but it's indicative of something, and the fact that it
• 50:19
  Speaker 1: was 7 basically all week and hadn't moved to the 7.5
• 50:23
  Speaker 1: until the public really started coming in tonight, you know
• 50:27
  Speaker 1: what I mean? Yeah, that tells me something. So I
• 50:30
  Speaker 1: think the real money is on UCF, and that's what's
• 50:32
  Speaker 1: been keeping the public in check here. As I pointed out,
• 50:36
  Speaker 1: the percentages here tell you public's on BYU. The real
• 50:39
  Speaker 1: money is more so on UCF. And it gets even
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: better because the over is really public in this game,
• 50:45
  Speaker 1: and the money has actually hit the under and dropped
• 50:47
  Speaker 1: this thing to 43.5. So taking points with a low total,
• 50:52
  Speaker 1: you know I like doing that too, so we're doing
• 50:54
  Speaker 1: that here. Getting the hook on the touchdowns. It's a
• 50:58
  Speaker 1: big number in a game with a low total like this.
• 51:00
  Speaker 1: And UCF, what they're pretty much known for is they
• 51:02
  Speaker 1: can run the football. And with Scott Frost, I believe,
• 51:06
  Speaker 1: is still the head coach there. He does a pretty
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: good job in these home games. And they are still
• 51:11
  Speaker 1: a team that's able to run the football and slow
• 51:13
  Speaker 1: the game down. So that's what we want them to
• 51:15
  Speaker 1: do here. But I'm also not convinced that BYU's offense
• 51:18
  Speaker 1: is so prolific that they're going to be able to
• 51:21
  Speaker 1: cover a number like this in this particular game. Like,
• 51:25
  Speaker 1: I don't really think they will. And their running back,
• 51:28
  Speaker 1: their stud running back is still out here, PYU's. So, yeah,
• 51:32
  Speaker 1: let's take UCF plus the points there. All right. Where
• 51:37
  Speaker 1: are we at here for timing here? I'm going to
• 51:39
  Speaker 1: try to time the hydration break here, man. Yeah, this
• 51:42
  Speaker 1: takes a lot out of me, man. Michigan State at
• 51:45
  Speaker 1: number nine, UCLA, on CBS at 3.30 p.m.
• 51:47
  Speaker 5: Eastern.
• 51:48
  Speaker 1: This game... Yes, you do have a more eastern team
• 51:53
  Speaker 1: going all the way out to the Pacific Coast, so
• 51:55
  Speaker 1: I talk about how that's difficult. The good thing for
• 51:57
  Speaker 1: Michigan State, though, is that it's not a night game,
• 52:00
  Speaker 1: so it's not as bad, where they won't be playing really,
• 52:02
  Speaker 1: really late at night. But it's still going to be
• 52:04
  Speaker 1: a difficult travel spot to have to go out to
• 52:06
  Speaker 1: UCLA and play in a venue Michigan State's really not
• 52:12
  Speaker 1: that familiar with. And UCLA, no doubt they're playing well
• 52:16
  Speaker 1: under Chesney there, who came over from... james madison i
• 52:20
  Speaker 1: mean these james madison coaches signetti chesney they built that
• 52:24
  Speaker 1: program up they leave there and now they're both doing
• 52:26
  Speaker 1: really well in the big time in these big conferences
• 52:29
  Speaker 1: so in the big 10 specifically actually it still feels
• 52:33
  Speaker 1: weird to say ucla is in the big 10 never
• 52:35
  Speaker 1: gonna get used to it but whatever i still think
• 52:37
  Speaker 1: ucla is not really the ninth best team in the
• 52:40
  Speaker 1: country though like i still don't think they've really totally
• 52:44
  Speaker 1: proven that they're deserving of that ranking. Uh, Michigan state
• 52:47
  Speaker 1: hasn't played well though. First year under Pat Fitzgerald and
• 52:50
  Speaker 1: his return. Um, But Michigan State's mostly played pretty competitively, though.
• 52:56
  Speaker 1: So they haven't really been that bad. Their last couple
• 52:58
  Speaker 1: of games, they barely lost. But now they're coming off
• 53:00
  Speaker 1: a tough effort against Northwestern that I talked about earlier
• 53:04
  Speaker 1: in the show, where Michigan State was a fairly big
• 53:07
  Speaker 1: underdog in that game. I think they were about a
• 53:08
  Speaker 1: touchdown dog at home in that game. And it was
• 53:11
  Speaker 1: probably kind of big for them because it was the
• 53:13
  Speaker 1: Pat Fitzgerald... you know, revenge game, if you want to
• 53:18
  Speaker 1: call it that. I think it was the first time
• 53:19
  Speaker 1: he coached against the team that fired him, Northwestern. I
• 53:23
  Speaker 1: think he was out of college football for a while.
• 53:25
  Speaker 1: So that was a big game for Michigan State, and
• 53:28
  Speaker 1: they covered, and they almost won the game outright. So
• 53:30
  Speaker 1: I think after a game like that, you know, they
• 53:32
  Speaker 1: might not have that much left, having to go all
• 53:34
  Speaker 1: the way to the Pacific Coast. So I don't really
• 53:37
  Speaker 1: love the spot here for Michigan State. And even though
• 53:40
  Speaker 1: it is UCLA, and they're really highly ranked, Michigan State
• 53:43
  Speaker 1: does also have their massive rival, Michigan, next, although it
• 53:46
  Speaker 1: is after a bye, but that's always a huge game
• 53:49
  Speaker 1: for them, too. I'm not going to say they're going
• 53:51
  Speaker 1: to overlook UCLA. I don't think that's the case, but
• 53:54
  Speaker 1: Pacific Coast travel after a huge effort game against Northwestern
• 53:57
  Speaker 1: doesn't look that great to me, and UCLA didn't play
• 54:00
  Speaker 1: well last week against Wisconsin. UCLA was coming up that
• 54:03
  Speaker 1: big upset of Oregon. It was very turnover-laden, which helped
• 54:10
  Speaker 1: UCLA big time. I thought UCLA would be in a
• 54:13
  Speaker 1: bit of a hangover after that. I did not want Wisconsin, though,
• 54:16
  Speaker 1: because Wisconsin was having to travel out to the Pacific
• 54:18
  Speaker 1: Coast for, I believe that was a night game, but
• 54:20
  Speaker 1: I'm not entirely sure about that. But also UCLA, first
• 54:24
  Speaker 1: game with their backup quarterback. So that's something to take
• 54:27
  Speaker 1: into account. Niko, their QB had gone down in the
• 54:30
  Speaker 1: game against Oregon. So they put in their backup quarterback.
• 54:33
  Speaker 1: They started their backup quarterback last week. You know I
• 54:36
  Speaker 1: talk about that. how usually a team is going to
• 54:38
  Speaker 1: get up that first game that their starting quarterback is out.
• 54:41
  Speaker 1: The team usually has a little bit of extra effort
• 54:43
  Speaker 1: there because they know they have to kind of compensate
• 54:47
  Speaker 1: or what have you for that star player going down.
• 54:51
  Speaker 1: So I think they did that. But the second game
• 54:53
  Speaker 1: after that, if they win that game, the second game
• 54:55
  Speaker 1: after that usually doesn't go as well. But because that
• 54:58
  Speaker 1: was such an ugly win for UCLA and it was
• 55:00
  Speaker 1: so unimpressive, and Michigan State's coming off a nice effort
• 55:04
  Speaker 1: where they fell just short as an underdog, I still
• 55:07
  Speaker 1: think I would lean UCLA in this one. UCLA is public, though,
• 55:12
  Speaker 1: of course. 75% of tickets, 82% of the cash on them.
• 55:15
  Speaker 1: But it looks like the real money has come in
• 55:17
  Speaker 1: on them because they moved up from 13 all the
• 55:20
  Speaker 1: way through the key number of 14 all the way
• 55:22
  Speaker 1: up to 15, 15.5. So unfortunately, at that number, you
• 55:25
  Speaker 1: can't really lay that number with UCLA. Now that it's
• 55:28
  Speaker 1: gone through the key number of 14. But I think
• 55:31
  Speaker 1: UCLA is probably the right side here. So do what
• 55:34
  Speaker 1: you want with that. The money has come in on
• 55:36
  Speaker 1: the under in that game, too. And that is a
• 55:38
  Speaker 1: low total. It's downhill. sitting around 44.5 now. And, you know,
• 55:43
  Speaker 1: that makes the underdog look more enticing, right? Like a
• 55:45
  Speaker 1: double-digit dog with a very low total like that does
• 55:49
  Speaker 1: look enticing. So, yeah, I'm going to stay away from
• 55:52
  Speaker 1: this one, but I would slightly lean towards laying the
• 55:55
  Speaker 1: points with UCLA. Really don't like the number at that point, though.
• 55:59
  Speaker 1: At the point that it's at now, I mean. Number 11,
• 56:01
  Speaker 1: Tennessee at South Carolina, 3.30 p.m. on ESPN and Disney +. Um,
• 56:09
  Speaker 1: I believe the ESPN, uh, or the, um, college game
• 56:12
  Speaker 1: day game, I believe is the big game later on, uh,
• 56:15
  Speaker 1: the huge SEC matchup. That's the ranked versus ranked. Uh,
• 56:19
  Speaker 1: so I don't believe it's this one, at least number 11,
• 56:21
  Speaker 1: Tennessee at South Carolina, which is kind of whatever, but
• 56:25
  Speaker 1: this game almost made the cut for me. So this
• 56:27
  Speaker 1: is a strong opinion for me, but it didn't quite
• 56:29
  Speaker 1: make the card. It might make my contest center because
• 56:31
  Speaker 1: I have to pick seven, um, I have to make
• 56:35
  Speaker 1: seven picks, so it might make it there. Number 11, Tennessee.
• 56:38
  Speaker 1: They look good so far, but you've got to think
• 56:41
  Speaker 1: this is a huge letdown spot for Tennessee here. They
• 56:44
  Speaker 1: just beat Alabama, man. That was a huge win. I
• 56:46
  Speaker 1: gave Tennessee out as a play on the show last week,
• 56:49
  Speaker 1: so we got a win. But remember what Alabama was
• 56:52
  Speaker 1: coming off of. Alabama was coming off their massive game
• 56:55
  Speaker 1: against Georgia, and they took their first loss of the season.
• 56:58
  Speaker 1: So you know Alabama was in a hangover spot there.
• 57:01
  Speaker 1: I told you that. Plus, I told you Tennessee had
• 57:03
  Speaker 1: played poorly against Arkansas as a big favorite the game
• 57:06
  Speaker 1: before that, so it was a bounce back for Tennessee,
• 57:08
  Speaker 1: and I thought they were looking ahead to Alabama in
• 57:12
  Speaker 1: that Arkansas performance. We got the win with Tennessee, but
• 57:14
  Speaker 1: now that Tennessee won against Alabama last weekend pretty decisively, 26-10,
• 57:20
  Speaker 1: going back out on the road, this is clearly a
• 57:22
  Speaker 1: letdown spot for Tennessee, man. And their road performances so far,
• 57:26
  Speaker 1: I mean, they beat Georgia Tech okay. They beat them
• 57:29
  Speaker 1: by more than I thought, but Georgia Tech's not very good.
• 57:32
  Speaker 1: And then they've struggled with Arkansas on the road, which
• 57:34
  Speaker 1: is their only conference road game so far. So I
• 57:37
  Speaker 1: think this is a difficult task coming up that huge
• 57:40
  Speaker 1: game against Alabama, having to go into South Carolina, not easy.
• 57:44
  Speaker 1: Then Tennessee has a buy. And then after that, they
• 57:46
  Speaker 1: got to play number 12, Kentucky, who is a ranked
• 57:49
  Speaker 1: team that's having a really good season. And they're one
• 57:52
  Speaker 1: of Tennessee's bigger rivals too. I believe that's basically a
• 57:55
  Speaker 1: rivalry game, Tennessee, Kentucky. So I think they might overlook
• 57:59
  Speaker 1: South Carolina here. And, you know, it also may look
• 58:03
  Speaker 1: even better as far as South Carolina, at least from
• 58:06
  Speaker 1: my perspective, because South Carolina is an unranked favorite. Tennessee
• 58:10
  Speaker 1: looks like they opened one. I don't know when that
• 58:12
  Speaker 1: number was out there, but it's been South Carolina two
• 58:15
  Speaker 1: and a half all week, basically. And I think the
• 58:17
  Speaker 1: one might have been from a couple of weeks ago
• 58:19
  Speaker 1: is Tennessee. They're on their third string quarterback. I think
• 58:21
  Speaker 1: right now they're on one of their backup quarterbacks and
• 58:24
  Speaker 1: he's not an experienced quarterback, so you've got to take
• 58:27
  Speaker 1: that into account too with Tennessee. Their quarterback that's playing
• 58:31
  Speaker 1: right now, I believe this is his third start, so
• 58:33
  Speaker 1: he did have one road start against Arkansas. It wasn't
• 58:36
  Speaker 1: that impressive. He won last week at home, but I
• 58:39
  Speaker 1: think you could question a really green quarterback like Tennessee's
• 58:43
  Speaker 1: coming into this game in this type of spot. Doesn't
• 58:47
  Speaker 1: look easy. And it looks, I mean, it looks way
• 58:50
  Speaker 1: too easy as far as the market is concerned. It
• 58:52
  Speaker 1: looks way too easy to take Tennessee, right? Oh my God,
• 58:54
  Speaker 1: Tennessee's ranked and they just beat Alabama. And they're an
• 58:58
  Speaker 1: underdog in this game against an unranked South Carolina team, right?
• 59:02
  Speaker 1: So the odds makers are telling you what you need
• 59:04
  Speaker 1: to know here. They think this is a bad spot
• 59:06
  Speaker 1: for Tennessee. They think South Carolina is not that much worse.
• 59:11
  Speaker 1: than Tennessee is. However, what I will point out is
• 59:14
  Speaker 1: that I talk about the ranked underdog versus the unranked
• 59:17
  Speaker 1: favorite here. It hasn't worked well at all this season.
• 59:22
  Speaker 1: It worked really well in football and basketball the last
• 59:24
  Speaker 1: few years. It started to get a little bit dicey
• 59:27
  Speaker 1: last year, and this year it's actually been bad. So
• 59:30
  Speaker 1: keep that in mind. I believe it's like 0-5-1 to
• 59:33
  Speaker 1: the spread as far as these unranked home favorites, at
• 59:37
  Speaker 1: least against ranked road opponents. It has not been good.
• 59:41
  Speaker 1: But even so... It still looks like a trap line
• 59:44
  Speaker 1: to me. It looks way too easy to take Tennessee.
• 59:47
  Speaker 1: The oddsmakers know the public is just going to hammer Tennessee,
• 59:50
  Speaker 1: getting them as an underdog here. 68% of the tickets,
• 59:53
  Speaker 1: 55% of the cash on Tennessee. So they are a
• 59:56
  Speaker 1: dreaded public underdog here. I mean, I don't want to
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 1: play on a public team generally anyway. Sometimes I will,
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 1: but not usually. But when it's a public underdog, that's
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 1: a massive red flag. as I always say, because the
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 1: public doesn't even want the team that the Osweggers are
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 1: telling you is supposed to win the game, essentially. So, yeah,
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 1: there are a lot of red flags here. It's a
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 1: horrible spot for Tennessee. And normally, even with the number
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 1: not being that good on South Carolina, I would still
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 1: be on South Carolina here, except I think South Carolina
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 1: is not in a great spot either, and that's what
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 1: keeps me off of this. is South Carolina's coming out
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 1: of a bye, which normally, yeah, that might be good,
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 1: because they got rest last week, where Tennessee was beating
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 1: Alabama last week, so why wouldn't I want South Carolina
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 1: coming out of a bye? Well, it's because they beat Florida,
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 1: who was ranked at the time, and I think deservedly so.
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 1: South Carolina went into Florida and... beat them as almost
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 1: a three-touchdown underdog, I think. That was a huge upset
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 1: win for South Carolina, going into the swamp and beating
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 1: a ranked Florida team like that. So they went into
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 1: the bye on a good note. So I will say
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 1: it again, when a team goes into a bye on
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 1: a good note, I think it's bad because they just
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 1: don't have... as many things to fix during the buy
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 1: and you kind of bask in that win. You know
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 1: what I mean? So I think there could be still
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 1: a letdown spot for them that kind of runs through
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 1: the buy here. Although there's still, they're not going to
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 1: overlook Tennessee though. So I still think the letdown spot
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 1: is worse for Tennessee here. I think it's basically a
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 1: sandwich for Tennessee as well. So yeah, I still like
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 1: South Carolina here. Like it's all, it's one of my
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 1: stronger opinions that almost made the cut for me. It's just, Basically,
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 1: the South Carolina also being a letdown spot is really
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 1: what kept me off of this. But also the fact
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 1: that the oddsmakers are obviously skewing the number further towards
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 1: these unranked home favorites now. The oddsmakers are trying to
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 1: counter what the professional bettors are doing. You know what
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 1: I mean? So you have to adapt. So I think
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 1: this is a game where you just have to kind
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 1: of just sideline it, just sit on the sidelines for
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 1: this one. But yeah, if you force me to play it, yeah,
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 1: I would lay it with South Carolina. you know, I mean,
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 1: another option here is to play the money line on
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 1: South Carolina. If you want to do it that way,
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 1: that would be another way to do it. And then
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 1: you don't have to lay points at least, although you're
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 1: laying below a field goal at least. So those are
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 1: my thoughts on that. What's up everybody. Tyler, what's up, man. Um,
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 1: Tennessee started true freshmen to start the season. And this
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 1: is a red shirt freshman. No, whatever, whoever their quarterback is,
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 1: who's starting is only starting his third game, dude. Um,
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 1: You're a Tennessee fan? Good luck, dude. You think I'm wrong? Okay.
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 1: You're not going to come back when South Carolina wins
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 1: this game. I know you're not going to, so whatever. Dude,
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 1: this is how I handicap, man. Yeah, Tennessee-Kentucky is a rivalry. Yes, correct. Tony,
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 1: what's up, man? I agree. Buy, stop the momentum. That's true.
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 1: You're correct about that. Yes, I agree. Well, thank you, sir.
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 1: I appreciate it. Um, sometimes I get really ornery here
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 1: and people are really, really giving me shit, but yeah, man,
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 1: I mean, yeah, yeah, you can definitely disagree with me. That's,
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 1: that's all right. Um, before GTA six, uh, all right.
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 1: What do you mean? GTA six isn't out yet, man.
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 1: It's out next month. Um, I'm very tempted to play
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 1: it and I haven't played video games in a long time. Um,
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 1: I don't know. I got nothing else on that, but
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 1: this is the way that I handicapped menu. You'll find out. Um, yeah,
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 1: people do not like GTA. what I have to say here, man.
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 1: The way that I handicap situationally, very, very contrarian. I'm
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 1: basically fading what the public sentiment is and what you
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 1: saw last. I'm basically, it's like a stock market almost
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 1: where you want to go against teams where I think
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 1: the market is too high on them and play on
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 1: teams where I think the market is too low on them,
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 1: if that makes sense. That's what I'm doing here. All right, 3.30 p.m. Eastern, ABC,
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 1: Texas A & M at number 13, Alabama. I'll tell you,
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 1: I do think Alabama is better than the 13th best team.
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 1: So I think they're actually under-ranked here. If you listen
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 1: to the professionals who have the power ratings or whatever,
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 1: I'm almost positive they're still going to have Alabama as
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 1: a top 7 or 8 team, maybe even higher than that.
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 1: So the stock is a little bit low on Alabama
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 1: right now. And we know they're coming off of that
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 1: loss to Tennessee. I already kind of explained that. Alabama
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 1: was coming off that monster game against Georgia. I think
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 1: they were hungover in that game against Tennessee. Like I said, Tyler, Tony,
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 1: whatever you guys are saying there, I gave out... I
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 1: gave out Tennessee as a play last week, so that
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 1: was a win I gave out on the show. You
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 1: probably wouldn't have liked that one at the time, right?
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 1: Even as a Tennessee fan, you probably would have called
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 1: me insane for that one. They won outright, so there
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 1: you go. But this could be a bounce-back spot for
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 1: Alabama here, although it is a third road game in
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 1: four weeks, I believe. Or wait, do they have a bye?
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 5: Hold on.
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 1: Do they have a bye before Georgia? I forget. No,
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 1: they didn't. So yeah, they're playing a third road game
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 1: in four weeks. That's not that easy. And as I
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 1: mentioned earlier in the show, they do have a huge
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 1: game against LSU on deck. So that's really the biggest concern,
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 1: I think, with Alabama here is that look-ahead spot potential here.
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 1: But there is a bye in between these two games,
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 1: so maybe they won't look ahead as much. And after
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 1: that loss to Tennessee... To me, it seems more like
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 1: a refocus spot for Alabama here to me. Texas A
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 1: & M, they have not been good. I mean, what
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 1: can I say? They have not been anywhere near what
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 1: we thought. Texas A & M on the road, they've
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 1: been awful on the road this year. They got annihilated
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 1: by LSU, and they also got pretty much destroyed by Missouri.
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 1: That was a loss that I gave out on the show.
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 1: I had Texas A & M. That was a play
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 1: I gave out on the show that week. Yeah, I'll
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 1: talk about my losers. That's fine. Texas A & M
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 1: bounced back last week with a win over the Citadel,
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 1: an easy win for them. So you could make the
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 1: argument that, well, Texas A & M is more, I guess,
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 1: rested coming into this game because they had a nice
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 1: tune-up last week, whereas Alabama was involved in a difficult game. Yeah,
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 1: so I mean, this is a tough handicap in this one.
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 1: I don't want any part of this game as far
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 1: as the side is concerned. But I think all that
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 1: being said, I think I'd probably lean towards laying it
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 1: with Alabama here. The money seems like it agrees, even
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 1: though they're a bit of a public side, 73% of tickets.
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 1: 83% of the cash, though, that is kind of a
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 1: big cash disparity there. But the initial line was 15.5,
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 1: and it did move down to 13.5. So that does
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 1: tell me that some money did definitely come in on
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 1: A & M, though, driving that line through that very
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 1: key number of 14. That's a big move. So you
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 1: got to keep that in mind. There was a big
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 1: money move towards A & M, but it looks like
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 1: the money is more so coming in on Bama now.
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 1: And I still think that Alabama better team given how
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 1: bad A & M has been on the road so far.
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 1: If both teams show up focused here, which is kind
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 1: of what I'm expecting, the better team, I think may
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 1: take care of business in that one. So I think
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 1: I lean Alabama a little bit there. Uh, Quinto, Quinto
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 1: for what's up, man. Um, all the emojis you like pit. Uh, I,
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 1: I agree with that one. Uh, I lean pit in
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 1: the game against Miami. I don't love it. Um, I
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 1: don't like the expanded playoff. I think 16 is the
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 1: right number. I think it should be... Dude, FCS has
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 1: done it for how long? Its entire existence or whatever?
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 1: FCS has a 16-team playoff. Nobody ever talks about it
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 1: because it works. That's just what it is. Nobody complains
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 1: about it. I think that's what you should have in FBS.
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 1: Go with what works. It should be a 16-team playoff.
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 1: Very simple. Bracket. Yeah, you know exactly how it works.
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 1: That's it. That's what it should be. So, no, I
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 1: don't like the 2014 playoff. I hate the March Madness expansion.
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 1: What they're doing here, Charlie Baker, my former governor up here,
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 1: lockdown Charlie, that fucking piece of shit. Yeah, that guy,
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 1: he's destroying, yeah, he's the head of the NCAA or whatever,
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 1: if you didn't know that. He's basically single-handedly expanding March
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 1: Madness to some 76-team format or some bullshit where there
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 1: are going to be, what, like 12 play-in games now
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 1: or something? Nobody's going to even understand what's going to
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 1: happen there. And Part of the joy, like the biggest
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 1: joy of March Madness is filling out your fucking bracket.
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 1: And now people are going to look at it and
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 1: be like, I don't even know what the fuck's going
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 1: on with this bracket. And you don't even know who
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 1: half the teams are going to be in the main
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 1: bracket part of it until like the very last second.
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 1: What the fuck are we doing? March Madness is ruined.
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 1: The 64 team March Madness format was fucking perfect. Perfection.
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 1: Never should have been changed. It's all about TV revenue.
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 1: They want more TV games. It's all fucking bullshit because
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 1: they got to compete with the streaming services and whatever. Yeah, exactly. Yeah,
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 1: I agree with you on that. Yes. All right, Tyler. Yeah,
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 1: I can guarantee you Tennessee will not win that game
• 1:09:10
  Speaker 1: by 50. How about that? I'd be willing to definitely
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 1: say that. But yeah, I think South Carolina does win
• 1:09:16
  Speaker 1: that game.
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 3: All right.
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 1: Where are we at here before I hydration break here?
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 1: I might do it. Well, I was going to do
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 1: it after the 330 games. Holy shit, there are a
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 1: bunch of them. Number 15, Iowa, Minnesota on Fox Sports 1.
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 1: This is what I call an inverted bye situation here.
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 1: Both teams were on a bye last week, I'm pretty sure.
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 1: One team looked really good going into the bye, and
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 1: one team looked really bad going into the bye. So
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 1: you know what I'm going to say. You want to
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 1: be on the team that looked really bad going into
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 1: the bye. I believe that's what we have going on here.
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 1: Iowa looked really good going into the bye. They demolished
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 1: Washington on a Friday night primetime game that everybody saw. Iowa,
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 1: with their new quarterback, looked really good with Heklinski throwing
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 1: the ball all over the place. and Iowa not really
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 1: known for their offense particularly, although at least Ferentz fired
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 1: his son, and that helped their offense. Maybe Iowa's got
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 1: a decent offense. I mean, it's still not that prolific
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 1: of an offense, so you're going to be asking them
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 1: to lay points on the road. Coming off a bye
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 1: that they went into on a good note where they
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 1: looked really good, yeah, I think it's kind of a
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 1: negative spot for them here. I think they might not
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 1: be able to use that bye to its full potential.
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 1: They looked a little bit too good coming into that bye,
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 1: whereas for Minnesota... They looked absolutely horrendous in their last game,
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 1: losing to a bad Purdue team and getting absolutely demolished
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 1: by them, and that's how they went into the bye. Yeah,
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 1: Minnesota looked as bad as possible in that game, but
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 1: look at what they were coming off of. I gave
• 1:10:48
  Speaker 1: you guys Purdue as a lean in that game because
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 1: Minnesota was coming up beating Michigan. That was a huge win,
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 1: and Minnesota, in fact, actually had two upset wins in
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 1: a row. They went on the road and upset Washington
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 1: as a big underdog. came back home, beat Michigan as
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 1: an underdog. I think they just had nothing left in
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 1: the tank. Purdue caught them at a good time, and
• 1:11:06
  Speaker 1: Minnesota had a bad game. Minnesota had Iowa and Indiana
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 1: and UCLA all lined up after this bye as well. Yeah,
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 1: so Minnesota got caught in a bad spot. I think
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 1: the way to play this game is absolutely to play
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 1: Minnesota in this one.
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 5: It.
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 1: This one was close for me as well. I will
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 1: say I like Minnesota and this one a lot I
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 1: was got 67% of the tickets on them 61% of
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 1: the cash on Minnesota. This is a seven and a
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 1: half Which did open six and a half so it
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 1: did go through the key number here, but all right
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 1: I like the Minnesota side you're gonna give me the
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 1: hook on the seven Yeah seems like the right way
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 1: to play it to me and the total is getting
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 1: a lot of traction on the under And it's dropped
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 1: now below the key number of 41. We're looking at
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 1: a forty and a half here now and So that's
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 1: a low total. And Iowa, I still don't fully expect
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 1: their offense to do that much in another road game
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 1: here like this, especially coming out of a bye. I
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 1: know the bye might help them a little bit, get
• 1:12:04
  Speaker 1: their new quarterback more used to the system and whatever,
• 1:12:07
  Speaker 1: and they design plays for him instead of the other guy.
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 1: But yeah, whatever. Again, the spot really screams Minnesota to
• 1:12:15
  Speaker 1: me for all the reasons that I said. The inverted
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 1: bye situation, basically. So, yeah, I like Minnesota in that
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 1: one quite a bit. And, again, taking more than a
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 1: touchdown with a low total, usually where you want to be,
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 1: especially against a team that Iowa's still mostly a defensive team, man.
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 1: So laying points with a team that's a style like
• 1:12:36
  Speaker 1: Iowa is is not necessarily what you want to do.
• 1:12:39
  Speaker 1: All right. 3.30 p.m. SEC Network, Oklahoma at Mississippi State.
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 1: I think the thing to look at here is that
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 1: you see Mississippi State's 4-2. Mississippi State was making all
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 1: this noise early in the season. They were ranked until
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 1: last week. Oklahoma has looked really, really bad, especially on offense,
• 1:12:57
  Speaker 1: and they're only sitting at 3-3 here. Yet Oklahoma's favored
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 1: on the road here. So the odds makers are telling
• 1:13:03
  Speaker 1: you again what you need to think here. They're telling
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 1: you Oklahoma's the better team. Even though their record doesn't
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 1: look that good, the public's not going to want them,
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 1: I don't think, because Oklahoma is a They're bad on offense.
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 1: What can I say? And Mississippi State's good on offense.
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 1: But Oklahoma still has the better defense here. And the oddsmakers, again,
• 1:13:21
  Speaker 1: are telling you they're actually the better team here. And
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma's coming off a bad performance last week against Kentucky. Now,
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 1: both teams are in bad spots there. Kentucky was coming
• 1:13:32
  Speaker 1: off the monster win over LSU. Oklahoma was coming off
• 1:13:34
  Speaker 1: a win that I gave out on the show over Texas,
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 1: which it was kind of misleading. I admit that Texas
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 1: outgained Oklahoma in that game, whatever. But Oklahoma still hung
• 1:13:43
  Speaker 1: around in that game and played good enough defense. They
• 1:13:47
  Speaker 1: won the game outright. They were in kind of a
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 1: letdown spot after that, although, again, I know Kentucky also
• 1:13:52
  Speaker 1: was in a letdown spot here. So it was like,
• 1:13:54
  Speaker 1: who's going to win the battle of the letdowns here? Well,
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 1: Kentucky won. Oklahoma was the favorite in that game. So
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma is now coming off a game where they were favored,
• 1:14:03
  Speaker 1: and they lost the game. So I think it could
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 1: be a bounce-back spot for Oklahoma here, man. And I
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 1: know they haven't been good on the road so far.
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 1: They lost at Michigan, and they lost at Georgia, but...
• 1:14:14
  Speaker 1: I mean, Georgia's a powerhouse, so whatever. But Michigan, that
• 1:14:18
  Speaker 1: was a spot where Michigan was in a clear bounce-back spot.
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 1: I gave Michigan out on the show in that game
• 1:14:24
  Speaker 1: because Michigan, everybody was making fun of Michigan so much
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 1: after that Western Michigan performance. And Oklahoma had put up
• 1:14:31
  Speaker 1: 51 in their opener against a bad UTEP team. So, yeah,
• 1:14:35
  Speaker 1: I liked Michigan a lot in that game. We got
• 1:14:37
  Speaker 1: that right with Michigan in Week 2. or I believe
• 1:14:40
  Speaker 1: it was week two, yeah, not week one, because I
• 1:14:42
  Speaker 1: don't think there was any week zero play here, but whatever.
• 1:14:46
  Speaker 1: So what I'm saying is that you can kind of
• 1:14:48
  Speaker 1: make arguments that Oklahoma could still perform well on the road,
• 1:14:52
  Speaker 1: even though they haven't yet. Again, they had to face
• 1:14:55
  Speaker 1: Michigan in a bounce-back spot for Michigan there, and Georgia
• 1:14:59
  Speaker 1: is just Georgia. Georgia's definitely better than Mississippi State. So
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 1: I am expecting Oklahoma to bounce back here in this one. No,
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 1: I did not want to go to fantasy football here, sorry.
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 1: Hold on, Mississippi State. They're in a bounce back too, though.
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 1: They just got blown out by LSU on the road
• 1:15:16
  Speaker 1: in their last game. But this Mississippi State team, man.
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 1: Not much was expected out of them at the beginning
• 1:15:22
  Speaker 1: of the season. I'm wondering if they're kind of seeing
• 1:15:25
  Speaker 1: reality now because they only have one good win. It
• 1:15:27
  Speaker 1: was against Missouri at home, and that Missouri team looks
• 1:15:30
  Speaker 1: like they got problems. So, you know, I mean, Mississippi State,
• 1:15:34
  Speaker 1: probably not as good as where they were ranked, and
• 1:15:37
  Speaker 1: now they've suffered two losses to two really good teams,
• 1:15:41
  Speaker 1: no doubt about that, Alabama and LSU, but Oklahoma... Even
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 1: though they're not as good as those two teams, Oklahoma
• 1:15:47
  Speaker 1: doesn't need to be that good to win this game
• 1:15:50
  Speaker 1: by a couple of points, you know? So yeah, obviously,
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 1: I like Oklahoma in this one. That is the way
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 1: that I would lean. It's not on my card or anything.
• 1:15:58
  Speaker 1: They look like they're the public side, which kind of
• 1:15:59
  Speaker 1: surprises me. You'd think the public would be like, oh,
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 1: I'm getting points with this Mississippi State team that has
• 1:16:05
  Speaker 1: the better record and the better offense. You'd think that's
• 1:16:07
  Speaker 1: where the public would be. They're not. 76% of tickets,
• 1:16:10
  Speaker 1: 88% of the cash, though, on Oklahoma. So it looks
• 1:16:13
  Speaker 1: like the money is still there, even though it actually
• 1:16:16
  Speaker 1: did drop from a 3 to a 2.5 here. But Okay,
• 1:16:20
  Speaker 1: I mean, I lean Oklahoma, and if you're going to
• 1:16:21
  Speaker 1: get an extra, you know, get on the better side
• 1:16:24
  Speaker 1: of three there, that's fine with me if that's what
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 1: you want to do there. The money's coming in on
• 1:16:30
  Speaker 1: the under, and I think the under is absolutely correlated
• 1:16:33
  Speaker 1: with the Oklahoma side here. This is a game where,
• 1:16:35
  Speaker 1: like I said, Oklahoma's defense and Mississippi State is offense, basically,
• 1:16:40
  Speaker 1: and I think those are correlated with the total. Like,
• 1:16:42
  Speaker 1: I think if you like The under, then you probably
• 1:16:46
  Speaker 1: like Oklahoma. And I think if you like the over,
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 1: then you probably like Mississippi State in that one. And
• 1:16:51
  Speaker 1: the total has gone through the key number, though, 47.5.
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 1: But it looks like maybe there was a false move
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 1: there because the money is definitely on the under as
• 1:16:58
  Speaker 1: far as the market read right now in that one.
• 1:17:00
  Speaker 1: And I think the under correlates with Oklahoma there, like
• 1:17:03
  Speaker 1: I said. So I like Oklahoma in that one. You
• 1:17:07
  Speaker 1: like Oklahoma in that one? All right, there you go.
• 1:17:11
  Speaker 1: You like Camario to win that one? We will see.
• 1:17:16
  Speaker 1: I'm giving you all my opinions, man. I've been doing
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 1: this for two decades, so I'm going with what's worked
• 1:17:23
  Speaker 1: for that long. But I'm giving out an opinion on
• 1:17:27
  Speaker 1: every single game here. I'm not going to get every
• 1:17:30
  Speaker 1: single one of these right, but obviously the goal is
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 1: to get the actual plays right at the very least. Oh,
• 1:17:35
  Speaker 1: maybe I should bring my record up here, right? Even
• 1:17:38
  Speaker 1: though I'm ice cold, this does not include today's so far. But, yeah,
• 1:17:42
  Speaker 1: I've been ice cold over the last two days, no
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 1: doubt about that. But last 201 days, this is a
• 1:17:47
  Speaker 1: profitable record there. So there you go. I'll keep that up, whatever.
• 1:17:51
  Speaker 1: I've got to update it for tonight, though, unfortunately. Boston
• 1:17:55
  Speaker 1: College at Georgia Tech on ACC Network. B.C. coming off
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 1: a nice little upset last week against Pitt, which I
• 1:18:03
  Speaker 1: gave that out as a lean on the show. Pitt,
• 1:18:05
  Speaker 1: I thought, was in a bad spot after I believe
• 1:18:07
  Speaker 1: they were coming off the North Carolina game, which I
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 1: thought might send them in a little bit of a tailspin.
• 1:18:12
  Speaker 1: And Pitt had Miami coming up this week. So Pitt
• 1:18:15
  Speaker 1: got caught having to travel to Boston to play B.C.
• 1:18:19
  Speaker 1: to Chestnut Hill. B.C. now coming off that nice little
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 1: upset there, having to go down to Georgia for this.
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 1: doesn't look like the greatest spot for BC here. Georgia
• 1:18:29
  Speaker 1: tech only sitting at two and four Georgia tech, uh,
• 1:18:32
  Speaker 1: not great last week, losing to Virginia tech. They didn't
• 1:18:35
  Speaker 1: cover either against Virginia tech. Um, I'm going to probably
• 1:18:40
  Speaker 1: lead Georgia tech here though. Cause BC looked a little
• 1:18:42
  Speaker 1: bit too good in that win last week. Nice upset
• 1:18:44
  Speaker 1: for them. Georgia tech didn't get the job done as
• 1:18:48
  Speaker 1: a dog there. Um, me see. Boston College, 59% of
• 1:18:52
  Speaker 1: the tickets are on BC here. The public's a little
• 1:18:54
  Speaker 1: bit on BC, which is kind of crazy, but they
• 1:18:57
  Speaker 1: do have the better record here. But the money is
• 1:18:59
  Speaker 1: actually on Georgia Tech, 70% of the cash on them.
• 1:19:01
  Speaker 1: And as you can see here, Georgia Tech... is a
• 1:19:04
  Speaker 1: six-point favorite, and they initially were four and a half,
• 1:19:07
  Speaker 1: and they're already up to six. So that means the
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 1: public is kind of leaning towards the dog in this one. And,
• 1:19:11
  Speaker 1: you know, I'm going to warn you again, public underdog,
• 1:19:14
  Speaker 1: not where you want to be. The oddsmakers are telling
• 1:19:19
  Speaker 1: you that BC is not the better team here, and
• 1:19:23
  Speaker 1: I don't think they're in the better spot either. So
• 1:19:26
  Speaker 1: that's what you got with that one. I would lay
• 1:19:28
  Speaker 1: the points for Georgia Tech if I was going to
• 1:19:30
  Speaker 1: play that one. also at 3 30 p.m eastern north
• 1:19:33
  Speaker 1: texas and navy and the american conference what do we
• 1:19:37
  Speaker 1: got going on with this one uh north texas good
• 1:19:39
  Speaker 1: offense uh they're coming up destroying charlotte put up a
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 1: huge amount of offense in that game now they gotta
• 1:19:45
  Speaker 1: go face a triple option attack on they've not faced
• 1:19:48
  Speaker 1: a triple option yet this year although because they're in
• 1:19:51
  Speaker 1: this conference they do uh kind of get used to
• 1:19:53
  Speaker 1: it they see it i think at least once pretty
• 1:19:55
  Speaker 1: much every year um Coming off a win that maybe
• 1:19:58
  Speaker 1: looks a little bit too good, though, against Charlotte. Navy,
• 1:20:02
  Speaker 1: I believe, is still down to their backup quarterback here,
• 1:20:04
  Speaker 1: although you can correct me if I'm wrong about that.
• 1:20:07
  Speaker 1: They're not having the greatest season. Why does it keep
• 1:20:08
  Speaker 1: switching back to the other team, dude? I hate that.
• 1:20:11
  Speaker 1: I wanted to look at Navy's schedule here. Navy's only
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 1: sitting at 2-4 here. They lost to UTSA in that
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 1: last game. That was the game where, as you can
• 1:20:19
  Speaker 1: see here, an Air Force team service member was, I
• 1:20:22
  Speaker 1: don't know what he was doing, something up in the
• 1:20:23
  Speaker 1: rafters pregame and he fell from the rafters and wound
• 1:20:28
  Speaker 1: up dying. Really, really... Crazy, tragic event there. And they
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 1: still played the game, which is insane. I don't know.
• 1:20:39
  Speaker 1: And that was in the Alamo Dome at UTSA. UTSA
• 1:20:42
  Speaker 1: wound up winning that game in a high-scoring, close game.
• 1:20:46
  Speaker 1: Navy now coming out of that. It does look like
• 1:20:48
  Speaker 1: Navy's still using their backup QB here, Gutierrez. I don't
• 1:20:51
  Speaker 1: know if it matters as much because they run the
• 1:20:53
  Speaker 1: football all over the place because they're a triple option.
• 1:20:57
  Speaker 1: But Gutierrez is obviously part of that. so Navy they're
• 1:21:01
  Speaker 1: going to try to slow this game down if they're
• 1:21:03
  Speaker 1: going to try to do anything in this game right
• 1:21:04
  Speaker 1: because North Texas is going to just try to throw
• 1:21:06
  Speaker 1: the ball all over the place against them Navy's going
• 1:21:09
  Speaker 1: to just you know do what they do basically and
• 1:21:11
  Speaker 1: try to slow the game down stay in the game
• 1:21:14
  Speaker 1: but Navy does have a huge game on deck against
• 1:21:16
  Speaker 1: Notre Dame and they're coming off of that weird tragic
• 1:21:19
  Speaker 1: event in UTSA and playing pretty much playing their guts
• 1:21:23
  Speaker 1: out as a bit of an underdog there against UTSA
• 1:21:25
  Speaker 1: so It's definitely a questionable spot here for Navy. North Texas,
• 1:21:30
  Speaker 1: you know, having to go play in Annapolis is a
• 1:21:34
  Speaker 1: little weird, and I don't really want North Texas either
• 1:21:36
  Speaker 1: coming off a 50-point outing, but it's just kind of
• 1:21:39
  Speaker 1: what they do. They put up a lot of points,
• 1:21:43
  Speaker 1: and they had a much easier effort last week, so
• 1:21:45
  Speaker 1: I don't know. I mean, to me, it seems like
• 1:21:46
  Speaker 1: North Texas might have the better of the situation here.
• 1:21:50
  Speaker 1: Let me see. The money does not agree with me
• 1:21:52
  Speaker 1: at all on that, though. 53% of the tickets are
• 1:21:54
  Speaker 1: on North Texas, 75% of the cash on Navy. North
• 1:21:58
  Speaker 1: Texas is around a three-point favorite here. Really high total, basically,
• 1:22:03
  Speaker 1: because it has to be, because North Texas is one
• 1:22:05
  Speaker 1: of the teams. You're going to get a high total
• 1:22:07
  Speaker 1: pretty much all the time when they're involved. 62.5% is
• 1:22:10
  Speaker 1: the total there. So that makes taking the points less enticing, though,
• 1:22:15
  Speaker 1: if you think it's going to be a high-scoring game.
• 1:22:17
  Speaker 1: I don't know. I kind of lean North Texas there,
• 1:22:19
  Speaker 1: but the money definitely does not agree with me on
• 1:22:21
  Speaker 1: that one. So, yeah, that game is definitely a stay away. Charles,
• 1:22:25
  Speaker 1: what's up? Thanks for hanging out. Yeah, the Falcons' new logo. Hey,
• 1:22:30
  Speaker 1: the NFL show is going to be tomorrow night, man.
• 1:22:34
  Speaker 1: All right, what are we at here?
• 1:22:35
  Speaker 5: Ritten.
• 1:22:36
  Speaker 1: Almost an hour and a half right now. How many
• 1:22:38
  Speaker 1: games do I have left to talk about? Oh, it's
• 1:22:40
  Speaker 1: not that many. All right, I'm going to hit a
• 1:22:42
  Speaker 1: hydration break here. I'll come back. Unless you want me
• 1:22:45
  Speaker 1: to talk about any of these other games, which I
• 1:22:46
  Speaker 1: think they're mostly uninteresting crap pretty much, I'm going to
• 1:22:50
  Speaker 1: hit the rest of the TV games, of course. I
• 1:22:52
  Speaker 1: still have two more plays, I think, to give out,
• 1:22:54
  Speaker 1: and I will talk about Kansas State, Arizona State next.
• 1:22:58
  Speaker 1: I'll be right back in a second.
• 1:24:19
  Speaker 5: Thank you.
• 1:25:02
  Speaker 1: All right, Kansas State, Arizona State, ESPN2. Kansas State, as
• 1:25:07
  Speaker 1: I already mentioned when I talked about Kansas, Kansas State
• 1:25:10
  Speaker 1: coming off a satisfying win in a rivalry game there
• 1:25:14
  Speaker 1: against Kansas. I think it's always satisfying when they beat
• 1:25:18
  Speaker 1: their little brother there, basically, which they, I think, do
• 1:25:21
  Speaker 1: more often than not, at least recently. Now they've got
• 1:25:24
  Speaker 1: to swing out on the road, though, and go to
• 1:25:26
  Speaker 1: Arizona State. And Kansas State has only played one road
• 1:25:28
  Speaker 1: game this year, and they lost in Cincinnati, so... I
• 1:25:32
  Speaker 1: don't know if you could draw many conclusions from that,
• 1:25:34
  Speaker 1: but still, you can make the argument Kansas State maybe
• 1:25:37
  Speaker 1: not in the greatest spot here. They only have Colorado
• 1:25:41
  Speaker 1: next to us. That's not that big of a deal.
• 1:25:43
  Speaker 1: But they're coming off a big game. Could be kind
• 1:25:45
  Speaker 1: of a letdown spot for them off the rivalry win.
• 1:25:48
  Speaker 1: Arizona State, they just got murdered by Texas Tech, which
• 1:25:52
  Speaker 1: I think was last week. They do have BYU on deck, though,
• 1:25:55
  Speaker 1: so there might be a little bit of a look-ahead
• 1:25:57
  Speaker 1: component to this there. But I don't know. I think
• 1:25:59
  Speaker 1: Arizona State, after getting annihilated by Texas Tech last week,
• 1:26:03
  Speaker 1: I don't see them overlooking Kansas State here. I think
• 1:26:06
  Speaker 1: they want to bounce back, at least from that. That
• 1:26:08
  Speaker 1: was a bad effort from Arizona State there. So I
• 1:26:10
  Speaker 1: think the lean is Arizona State in this game, if
• 1:26:13
  Speaker 1: I can actually find it. What is going on with
• 1:26:16
  Speaker 1: this site right now?
• 1:26:18
  Speaker 5: Oh, God.
• 1:26:18
  Speaker 1: Now I've got to get back to it. I apologize.
• 1:26:21
  Speaker 1: Maybe the people who run this site should apologize. Let
• 1:26:24
  Speaker 1: me see here. Arizona State.
• 1:26:28
  Speaker 5: Here we go.
• 1:26:29
  Speaker 1: Kansas State is a very public side. 92% of the tickets,
• 1:26:32
  Speaker 1: 84% of the cash on them. Line dropped from 3.5
• 1:26:36
  Speaker 1: all the way to 1, 1.5 basically. So that's a
• 1:26:39
  Speaker 1: pretty significant move. Kansas State opened above the field goal.
• 1:26:43
  Speaker 1: Now it's all the way down to basically a pick'em.
• 1:26:45
  Speaker 1: So it looks like some real money definitely came in
• 1:26:48
  Speaker 1: on the Arizona State side there because Kansas State obviously
• 1:26:52
  Speaker 1: is a public side there. So I think the lean
• 1:26:55
  Speaker 1: is Arizona State there, but you have to get a
• 1:26:58
  Speaker 1: worse number now, you know. I'd much rather have three
• 1:27:01
  Speaker 1: and a half, obviously, than one and a half. I mean,
• 1:27:03
  Speaker 1: losing that key number there is unfortunate, but maybe you've
• 1:27:07
  Speaker 1: got to just sit on the sidelines for it. ESPNU
• 1:27:11
  Speaker 1: does have a MAAC game here, and it's not a
• 1:27:13
  Speaker 1: horrible game. Eastern Michigan at Ohio. I mean, these are two...
• 1:27:17
  Speaker 1: decent-ish MAAC teams. Eastern Michigan just got blown out by Toledo,
• 1:27:23
  Speaker 1: so maybe a little bit of a bounce back for
• 1:27:24
  Speaker 1: them after that, although they did lose a three-game win
• 1:27:26
  Speaker 1: streak in that game, but Toledo is still, I think,
• 1:27:31
  Speaker 1: probably the best team in the MAAC, as I pointed out,
• 1:27:33
  Speaker 1: even though Ohio is actually at the top of the MAAC.
• 1:27:36
  Speaker 1: Ohio coming off a blowout win over Sacramento State, so
• 1:27:39
  Speaker 1: I think just simply, you know, you have Ohio coming
• 1:27:42
  Speaker 1: off a blowout win, although Sacramento State is pathetically bad
• 1:27:45
  Speaker 1: like they're new to FBS and they might just they're
• 1:27:48
  Speaker 1: probably the worst team in all of FBS they are
• 1:27:52
  Speaker 1: BS Ohio coming off of that and they do have
• 1:27:55
  Speaker 1: Akron on deck I know Akron hasn't played well but
• 1:27:58
  Speaker 1: Akron is an in-state rival at the very least and
• 1:28:00
  Speaker 1: then Miami Ohio after that Whereas, again, Eastern Michigan coming
• 1:28:04
  Speaker 1: off an ugly loss, a blowout loss. So I'd rather
• 1:28:07
  Speaker 1: be on the team that took the blowout loss in
• 1:28:10
  Speaker 1: the last game than the team that had the blowout win.
• 1:28:12
  Speaker 1: And maybe Ohio gets a little bit overvalued here because
• 1:28:15
  Speaker 1: they're sitting atop the conference. So I'm going to lean
• 1:28:18
  Speaker 1: to our man, Noah Kaniga, and lean towards Eastern Michigan
• 1:28:21
  Speaker 1: in this one, if I can even find it here,
• 1:28:23
  Speaker 1: if I can type right. Eastern Michigan has 82% of
• 1:28:26
  Speaker 1: the tickets. That has me worried a little bit about
• 1:28:30
  Speaker 1: that opinion, but 92% of the cash as well. I mean,
• 1:28:32
  Speaker 1: this is a game I don't think the public is
• 1:28:34
  Speaker 1: even really eyeing this game, so I think most of
• 1:28:37
  Speaker 1: this money is probably just professional money. with the Eastern
• 1:28:40
  Speaker 1: Michigan so I don't really think they are actually a
• 1:28:42
  Speaker 1: public underdog here because that wouldn't really make any sense
• 1:28:46
  Speaker 1: it does make sense to take points though when you're
• 1:28:48
  Speaker 1: getting 10-10.5 points here and the total is 48.5 it's
• 1:28:50
  Speaker 1: a low total so again taking double digit points kind
• 1:28:54
  Speaker 1: of does make sense there so yeah I lean Eastern
• 1:28:57
  Speaker 1: Michigan in that one Let's keep it going, man. As
• 1:29:01
  Speaker 1: we now get into some of the evening games here.
• 1:29:04
  Speaker 1: Number 21, Boise State at Washington State on the USA Network.
• 1:29:08
  Speaker 1: This Washington State team, yeah, they've been bad this season,
• 1:29:12
  Speaker 1: and that's putting it mildly. Boise's playing well, of course. Boise,
• 1:29:16
  Speaker 1: I believe, is coming out of a bye, if I'm
• 1:29:18
  Speaker 1: not mistaken. Yes, so they went into a bye on
• 1:29:21
  Speaker 1: a good note, though. Boise's only loss was a close
• 1:29:24
  Speaker 1: loss in Week 1 at Oregon. I think it was
• 1:29:27
  Speaker 1: Week 1, not Week 0. Week 1, I think so.
• 1:29:28
  Speaker 1: And Since then, they're 5-0, but they haven't really played
• 1:29:33
  Speaker 1: anybody good necessarily since then. Memphis, I guess, maybe. But Boise,
• 1:29:39
  Speaker 1: they went into the bye on a win streak, and
• 1:29:41
  Speaker 1: I talk about how that's a negative, I think. I
• 1:29:43
  Speaker 1: think it could disrupt your momentum. So I think Boise
• 1:29:46
  Speaker 1: coming out of that and beating Fresno going into the
• 1:29:48
  Speaker 1: bye was actually a pretty decent win because Fresno's actually
• 1:29:51
  Speaker 1: been playing all right. So... I think it's a negative
• 1:29:55
  Speaker 1: spot for Boise, having a bye in an inopportune time
• 1:29:58
  Speaker 1: where it could disrupt their momentum. They may very well
• 1:30:00
  Speaker 1: look past this Washington State team that hasn't played that well.
• 1:30:04
  Speaker 1: And they do have Texas State on deck, a newcomer
• 1:30:06
  Speaker 1: to this conference. But Texas State has, this is the
• 1:30:10
  Speaker 1: Pac-12 now, which is ridiculous. But Texas State has a
• 1:30:13
  Speaker 1: good offense, so. I believe Texas State is in this conference, right?
• 1:30:17
  Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure. I don't even know where anybody is now.
• 1:30:19
  Speaker 1: I think so. But they have a pretty good offense,
• 1:30:21
  Speaker 1: at least. So Boise might be looking ahead for that reason.
• 1:30:25
  Speaker 1: As far as Washington State is concerned, they've been awful.
• 1:30:27
  Speaker 1: They're 1-6. They've had a few difficult games in here.
• 1:30:31
  Speaker 1: I mean, their schedule has not been a complete cakewalk,
• 1:30:34
  Speaker 1: at least. And they've played the majority of their games
• 1:30:36
  Speaker 1: on the road. But they also don't have any FBS
• 1:30:39
  Speaker 1: wins so far, so that's not a good thing. But,
• 1:30:42
  Speaker 1: you know, you're going to be getting a ton of
• 1:30:43
  Speaker 1: points with them at home. They just lost to Oregon State,
• 1:30:46
  Speaker 1: I think, last week. Oregon State, kind of one of
• 1:30:49
  Speaker 1: their rivals because they were the two teams that got
• 1:30:51
  Speaker 1: orphaned when the Pac-12 happened. So they kind of became
• 1:30:55
  Speaker 1: the Pac-2 and became rivals. That was last week. Washington
• 1:30:59
  Speaker 1: State actually kind of played okay in that game. They
• 1:31:02
  Speaker 1: lost by 18 against an Oregon State team that's been
• 1:31:05
  Speaker 1: pretty good offensively. But Washington State put up a bunch
• 1:31:08
  Speaker 1: of points in that game at least. So finally their
• 1:31:11
  Speaker 1: offense kind of came alive. And it looks like Washington
• 1:31:13
  Speaker 1: State changed their quarterback from Pinnock to Eshelman. And maybe
• 1:31:18
  Speaker 1: that's a good thing because this Eshelman dude, I mean,
• 1:31:20
  Speaker 1: it looks like he's a dual threat QB. He had
• 1:31:23
  Speaker 1: over 100 rushing yards and over 200 passing yards last week.
• 1:31:26
  Speaker 1: That's not that bad. So maybe this Washington State offense
• 1:31:29
  Speaker 1: has kind of found something there. So, yeah, I think
• 1:31:33
  Speaker 1: I would lean Washington State plus the points in this one.
• 1:31:35
  Speaker 1: They're going to be a big underdog. Boise, they're a
• 1:31:38
  Speaker 1: public side, 88% of the tickets. I mean, obviously they're public.
• 1:31:41
  Speaker 1: 95% of the money, but I don't really think that's
• 1:31:45
  Speaker 1: that big of a deal. I think they're just clearly
• 1:31:47
  Speaker 1: a public side here. Boise State's laying 14 and a
• 1:31:50
  Speaker 1: half here. I would take the points with Washington State
• 1:31:53
  Speaker 1: if I was going to play that game. I will
• 1:31:55
  Speaker 1: not be, but that would be my opinion on that one. Oh,
• 1:31:59
  Speaker 1: thank you, sir. Yes, we're ramping up the graphics. We're
• 1:32:02
  Speaker 1: getting new people in here. I almost said nude, not nude.
• 1:32:06
  Speaker 1: Where's my mind at right now? I'm going to be
• 1:32:09
  Speaker 1: Trump now. I examined his ass. No, but we're getting
• 1:32:12
  Speaker 1: all new people in here that don't like me fading Tennessee.
• 1:32:16
  Speaker 1: We got the Tennessee crowd in here now, a bunch
• 1:32:18
  Speaker 1: of Vols fans in here. That's fine. Dude, I'm from Boston.
• 1:32:23
  Speaker 1: I have no real SEC biases here, so whatever. I
• 1:32:29
  Speaker 1: just want to get plays right. That's what I want
• 1:32:31
  Speaker 1: to do. CW at 6.30pm we have San Diego State
• 1:32:35
  Speaker 1: and Colorado State and yeah I'm a little bit mad
• 1:32:37
  Speaker 1: I did not put San Diego State on my card
• 1:32:39
  Speaker 1: last week I was still worried about the mumps man
• 1:32:43
  Speaker 1: San Diego State I mean they have kind of an
• 1:32:45
  Speaker 1: ugly record this year because they spent weeks with a
• 1:32:48
  Speaker 1: mumps outbreak in their clubhouse or whatever in their locker
• 1:32:51
  Speaker 1: room and They had some injuries, too, but it looks
• 1:32:55
  Speaker 1: like they might be a bit healthy now because they
• 1:32:56
  Speaker 1: legitimately beat Fresno last week. I think San Diego State
• 1:32:59
  Speaker 1: outgamed them massively in that game, so they beat them
• 1:33:02
  Speaker 1: by three, and I think statistically it should have been worse. Oh, no,
• 1:33:07
  Speaker 1: it wasn't as massive as I thought, but, yeah, they
• 1:33:09
  Speaker 1: outgamed Fresno by over 100 yards, though, as an underdog. See,
• 1:33:13
  Speaker 1: I'm mad I didn't put that on my card. I
• 1:33:14
  Speaker 1: thought it was a bad spot for Fresno because Fresno
• 1:33:17
  Speaker 1: was coming off that big performance against Boise where they
• 1:33:21
  Speaker 1: played them close, whatever. My lean was correct with San
• 1:33:25
  Speaker 1: Diego State. It was a fairly strong opinion for me
• 1:33:27
  Speaker 1: last week. But now coming off that upset win, I
• 1:33:31
  Speaker 1: don't know about San Diego State here now, man. They've
• 1:33:33
  Speaker 1: got to go to high elevation and play Colorado State here.
• 1:33:37
  Speaker 1: The good thing for San Diego State is Colorado State's
• 1:33:39
  Speaker 1: defense is horrifically bad. But I don't know, man. Off
• 1:33:43
  Speaker 1: of that nice upset win for San Diego State against
• 1:33:45
  Speaker 1: a Fresno team that was playing pretty well, it's possible
• 1:33:49
  Speaker 1: they don't have full focus here on Colorado State Colorado
• 1:33:53
  Speaker 1: State just got obliterated last week against Texas State. I
• 1:33:56
  Speaker 1: think that was one of those midweek games or maybe
• 1:33:58
  Speaker 1: a Friday game. I told you this defense is real bad.
• 1:34:01
  Speaker 1: You can tell it's really bad when they've allowed almost
• 1:34:03
  Speaker 1: 60 points in each of their last three games. In
• 1:34:07
  Speaker 1: each game, individually, they've allowed 56-plus in each of them. Yeah,
• 1:34:11
  Speaker 1: obviously this defense is horrendous. So, you know, there's not
• 1:34:16
  Speaker 1: a whole lot to like here about Colorado State, but
• 1:34:18
  Speaker 1: they're back at home here. San Diego State, you know...
• 1:34:23
  Speaker 1: They're a lesser offense than these last three offenses, okay?
• 1:34:26
  Speaker 1: The last three offenses Colorado State faced were UTSA, Oregon State,
• 1:34:30
  Speaker 1: and Texas State. Those three offenses are all better than
• 1:34:32
  Speaker 1: San Diego State. So maybe San Diego State will struggle
• 1:34:36
  Speaker 1: a little bit more here, at least to try to
• 1:34:38
  Speaker 1: get over whatever this is. Well, actually, I thought they
• 1:34:40
  Speaker 1: were going to be a bigger favorite than this. Holy crap.
• 1:34:42
  Speaker 1: They're a one-and-a-half point favorite. Oh, my God. And Colorado
• 1:34:47
  Speaker 1: State looks like a public underdog. There's no way.
• 1:34:49
  Speaker 4: Dude.
• 1:34:51
  Speaker 1: This game is, yeah, messing with my mind big time.
• 1:34:53
  Speaker 1: I did look at this game earlier, and I totally forgot.
• 1:34:55
  Speaker 1: I thought San Diego State was going to be like
• 1:34:57
  Speaker 1: a five-point favorite here. So, yeah, my read is obviously
• 1:35:02
  Speaker 1: way off on this game. 93% of the tickets are
• 1:35:04
  Speaker 1: on Colorado State, 88% of the cash on them. So,
• 1:35:08
  Speaker 1: or now 94% of the cash. What are we doing here?
• 1:35:12
  Speaker 1: Colorado State looks like a public home underdog, though, and
• 1:35:14
  Speaker 1: you know, as I said, that's a red flag to me.
• 1:35:17
  Speaker 1: That is not where you want to be. You do
• 1:35:18
  Speaker 1: not want to be in a home, you do not
• 1:35:20
  Speaker 1: want to be in a public underdog, excuse me, especially
• 1:35:24
  Speaker 1: not a home one. So I'm going to stay away.
• 1:35:26
  Speaker 1: I still think the situation sets up better for Colorado State, though,
• 1:35:31
  Speaker 1: and I think it looks too easy, actually, almost, to
• 1:35:33
  Speaker 1: take San Diego State here after last week you saw
• 1:35:37
  Speaker 1: them win against a capable team, and Colorado State, looked
• 1:35:42
  Speaker 1: awful again. So, I mean, I don't know, unless maybe
• 1:35:44
  Speaker 1: Colorado state playing all these high scoring games makes them
• 1:35:47
  Speaker 1: look better to the public eye, even though they're losing.
• 1:35:49
  Speaker 1: I have no idea. The one thing is we don't
• 1:35:51
  Speaker 1: really know how good San Diego state is. That's the thing,
• 1:35:55
  Speaker 1: because again, they spent the entire season basically with a
• 1:35:57
  Speaker 1: huge illness going around and with a bunch of injuries,
• 1:36:00
  Speaker 1: but now that they're getting healthier, this team might be
• 1:36:03
  Speaker 1: better than we thought that they were, you know? So
• 1:36:05
  Speaker 1: this is a, it's a difficult game to figure out
• 1:36:08
  Speaker 1: My slight lean is towards Colorado State, but I want
• 1:36:11
  Speaker 1: no part of this game at all. So, yeah, that's
• 1:36:14
  Speaker 1: obviously going to be a pass in this one. Is
• 1:36:21
  Speaker 1: Sydney Sweeney in here? I have no idea. Where is she?
• 1:36:24
  Speaker 1: She's chained to my radiator right now. No, I have
• 1:36:26
  Speaker 1: no idea. Who gets the mumps? I don't know. I mean,
• 1:36:31
  Speaker 1: they were required to get vaccinated against it. And they
• 1:36:36
  Speaker 1: all still got the mumps. So, yeah, that's all I'll
• 1:36:40
  Speaker 1: say about that. Colorado at Oklahoma State. Fox Sports won
• 1:36:43
  Speaker 1: at 7 p.m. I think you've got to fade Colorado
• 1:36:47
  Speaker 1: in this spot, man. I mean, Colorado just had a
• 1:36:49
  Speaker 1: massive effort last week against Utah. They came to within
• 1:36:53
  Speaker 1: three of Utah last week. That was a huge game
• 1:36:55
  Speaker 1: for Colorado. And they fell just short against a highly ranked,
• 1:36:59
  Speaker 1: very good Utah team. Utah punishes you physically, too. They
• 1:37:03
  Speaker 1: turn that into a physical game, man. You know, a
• 1:37:06
  Speaker 1: slobber knocker type of a game there. Now, the game
• 1:37:09
  Speaker 1: wasn't quite as close as it looked like. Colorado was
• 1:37:12
  Speaker 1: definitely hanging around, though. They definitely covered. They were a
• 1:37:14
  Speaker 1: big underdog in that game. They did put up a
• 1:37:17
  Speaker 1: touchdown late to make it a three-point game where there
• 1:37:19
  Speaker 1: was really no time left for them to get the
• 1:37:21
  Speaker 1: ball back and do anything. And they were down 10, obviously,
• 1:37:24
  Speaker 1: prior to that. But they still put in a big
• 1:37:26
  Speaker 1: effort there. So I think now going back out on
• 1:37:28
  Speaker 1: the road... Yeah, it doesn't look that great to me
• 1:37:31
  Speaker 1: for Colorado here, man. To me, it looks like it's
• 1:37:33
  Speaker 1: a flat spot. But Oklahoma State, I mean, they've been
• 1:37:37
  Speaker 1: ranked a decent chunk of the season. They're not really
• 1:37:39
  Speaker 1: a team you're going to overlook necessarily. They've had a
• 1:37:42
  Speaker 1: good season. They just took a loss that might... Send
• 1:37:46
  Speaker 1: them spiraling a little bit here because they had won
• 1:37:48
  Speaker 1: four games in a row and they had a loss.
• 1:37:50
  Speaker 1: It was a close, tough game against another pretty good
• 1:37:53
  Speaker 1: physical defense in Houston. Oklahoma State lost that game. So
• 1:37:57
  Speaker 1: they're kind of in a bad spot too coming off
• 1:37:59
  Speaker 1: of a big game like that. So both teams are
• 1:38:01
  Speaker 1: in negative spots here. So it's like, well, which one
• 1:38:04
  Speaker 1: is worse? I think value-wise, you're probably not going to
• 1:38:08
  Speaker 1: get value laying the points with Oklahoma State because everybody
• 1:38:11
  Speaker 1: knows they're the better team. Where are they at here?
• 1:38:13
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma State, come on. Show it to me, man. Where
• 1:38:16
  Speaker 1: are they at? There they are. At least it highlights it.
• 1:38:20
  Speaker 1: The money looks like it is indicating towards Colorado here.
• 1:38:23
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma State is public, 83% of tickets, 79% of the
• 1:38:25
  Speaker 1: cash on them. They opened 14 and now they're about 13%.
• 1:38:30
  Speaker 1: 13 and a half. So the number did drop off
• 1:38:32
  Speaker 1: of that key number of 14. You know, I mean,
• 1:38:36
  Speaker 1: the over might be a way to look in this
• 1:38:38
  Speaker 1: game too. It's up to 56 and a half. I
• 1:38:41
  Speaker 1: don't know how key really that 55 is that it
• 1:38:44
  Speaker 1: went through. It looks like it's a public over, but
• 1:38:47
  Speaker 1: maybe the real money's on the over too. I think
• 1:38:48
  Speaker 1: when you have two teams that are kind of in
• 1:38:51
  Speaker 1: spots where they might be like tired or overlook their
• 1:38:54
  Speaker 1: opponent or anything like that, I think it affects the
• 1:38:56
  Speaker 1: defense more than the offense. So I do think the
• 1:38:58
  Speaker 1: over makes sense in this game. I kind of like
• 1:39:02
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma State, though. I think I would lay the points.
• 1:39:05
  Speaker 1: I just think Colorado looks like they're in a major
• 1:39:07
  Speaker 1: flat spot. When you have a huge underdog like they
• 1:39:10
  Speaker 1: were last week, Oklahoma State was only a mild underdog
• 1:39:13
  Speaker 1: against Houston, even though that was a big game. Colorado
• 1:39:16
  Speaker 1: almost pulled off a monumental upset, man, against Utah. So
• 1:39:21
  Speaker 1: I think that puts them in the worst spot. So
• 1:39:22
  Speaker 1: I lean towards Oklahoma State. The money seems to disagree
• 1:39:26
  Speaker 1: with it. Another way that you could do this, if
• 1:39:28
  Speaker 1: you think Oklahoma State is the right side, and if
• 1:39:32
  Speaker 1: you like the over, of course, you could play the
• 1:39:34
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma State team total over. That may be an option
• 1:39:38
  Speaker 1: in this game, is to do that instead of laying
• 1:39:39
  Speaker 1: the points. Colorado's defense may very well be tired off
• 1:39:44
  Speaker 1: of that big game last week, getting physically punished. But
• 1:39:50
  Speaker 1: Laying the points doesn't look that bad to me because
• 1:39:52
  Speaker 1: you're getting below the 14 now. It's just that it's
• 1:39:54
  Speaker 1: scary when it seems like the market read doesn't agree
• 1:39:57
  Speaker 1: with you. So those are my thoughts on that game.
• 1:40:00
  Speaker 1: ESPN 7 p.m. Virginia Tech is at Clemson. Virginia Tech
• 1:40:04
  Speaker 1: got back on the winning track with a win over
• 1:40:06
  Speaker 1: Georgia Tech last week. But now they've got to go
• 1:40:09
  Speaker 1: back out on the road where they haven't exactly been
• 1:40:11
  Speaker 1: that good. I mean, they have wins on the road
• 1:40:13
  Speaker 1: against Maryland and Boston College. They didn't win those games
• 1:40:15
  Speaker 1: by that much. Single-digit wins, that's not that great. And
• 1:40:18
  Speaker 1: then they lost in Cal. It was a bad spot
• 1:40:22
  Speaker 1: for Virginia Tech there coming off a big game against
• 1:40:25
  Speaker 1: Pitt and their first loss. So I think that hung
• 1:40:27
  Speaker 1: them over. And Pacific Coast travel pretty negative as well.
• 1:40:31
  Speaker 1: And facing Cal in an injured player theory spot where
• 1:40:34
  Speaker 1: they were going to step up their game with their
• 1:40:35
  Speaker 1: backup QB there. So all of that was going on
• 1:40:38
  Speaker 1: in that game. I should have given it out as
• 1:40:40
  Speaker 1: a play. It was only a lean on the show.
• 1:40:42
  Speaker 1: But yes, Virginia Tech did bounce back last week. But
• 1:40:45
  Speaker 1: now they have to go back out on the road.
• 1:40:46
  Speaker 1: It's not easy to go play a night game in
• 1:40:49
  Speaker 1: the other Death Valley in Clemson. Clemson is actually favored here,
• 1:40:53
  Speaker 1: even though they have the lesser overall record here. Clemson,
• 1:40:58
  Speaker 1: they're coming off an easy game last week. They beat
• 1:41:00
  Speaker 1: an FCS team, Charleston Southern, whatever. Easy win. Basically like
• 1:41:04
  Speaker 1: a tune-up game for Clemson there. Yeah, this game's tough
• 1:41:08
  Speaker 1: to figure out. I think I might lean Clemson in
• 1:41:10
  Speaker 1: this one. I don't really have that great of a
• 1:41:13
  Speaker 1: reason to do it, but Virginia Tech looks like they're
• 1:41:15
  Speaker 1: the public side. 58% of the tickets on them. 59%
• 1:41:18
  Speaker 1: of the cash on Clemson. I just think Clemson, they
• 1:41:21
  Speaker 1: may actually be better than we think they are right now.
• 1:41:24
  Speaker 1: They've sort of looked the part so far this year.
• 1:41:27
  Speaker 1: Maybe they are having a bounce back. All this talk,
• 1:41:30
  Speaker 1: even I've been talking about how Dabo Sweeney hasn't gotten
• 1:41:34
  Speaker 1: with the times. He doesn't use the transfers and whatever,
• 1:41:36
  Speaker 1: and it's Hurting their program, but they're having an okay
• 1:41:40
  Speaker 1: season here, and Virginia Tech under James Franklin, they don't
• 1:41:44
  Speaker 1: look that impressive, you know, so I don't know. I
• 1:41:47
  Speaker 1: think I'll lean Clemson. It's a night game, you know,
• 1:41:49
  Speaker 1: in Death Valley. It'll be tough for Virginia Tech there.
• 1:41:51
  Speaker 1: Clemson coming off a real easy week last week, whereas
• 1:41:54
  Speaker 1: Virginia Tech was at least easy. in a conference battle
• 1:41:57
  Speaker 1: last week. So the spot might set up a little
• 1:41:59
  Speaker 1: bit better for Clemson there. So that'll be my lean there,
• 1:42:02
  Speaker 1: but obviously not a strong opinion for me at all
• 1:42:04
  Speaker 1: on that one. Now the big game, which I think
• 1:42:08
  Speaker 1: is the ESPN game day game, 7.30 p.m. on ABC. Well,
• 1:42:12
  Speaker 1: the game day game, I should say. ABC, ESPN, they're
• 1:42:15
  Speaker 1: all in the same family of networks. Number seven Ole
• 1:42:17
  Speaker 1: Miss at number 19, Texas. And obviously one thing that's
• 1:42:21
  Speaker 1: going to jump out at you right away is Texas
• 1:42:23
  Speaker 1: is favored. In this game, they are the home team, obviously,
• 1:42:26
  Speaker 1: but the Osweggers are telling you that there's really not
• 1:42:30
  Speaker 1: much of a gap at all between how good these
• 1:42:32
  Speaker 1: two teams are. Like, why would Texas be a favorite,
• 1:42:36
  Speaker 1: even though, yes, they're at home, but why would the
• 1:42:38
  Speaker 1: number 19 team be favored over the number 17, right?
• 1:42:41
  Speaker 1: So to me, I think the public's going to want
• 1:42:42
  Speaker 1: to come in on Ole Miss because they've seen what
• 1:42:44
  Speaker 1: these two teams have done the last couple weeks, and
• 1:42:47
  Speaker 1: Ole Miss is the better offense here. I'm not going
• 1:42:49
  Speaker 1: to deny that, but you know what I mean? I
• 1:42:51
  Speaker 1: like defense. I would like it more if Texas was
• 1:42:54
  Speaker 1: getting points here, obviously, which they're not. Texas is the
• 1:42:57
  Speaker 1: better defense here, though, and I think they're a lot
• 1:43:00
  Speaker 1: better than their ranking suggests right now. Texas was ranked
• 1:43:03
  Speaker 1: number one not too long ago, and now they have
• 1:43:05
  Speaker 1: a couple losses, and they're number 19 now. Come on, man.
• 1:43:09
  Speaker 1: These rankings makers, they overreact completely to what they saw last.
• 1:43:13
  Speaker 1: If you ask any of the real power ratings guys,
• 1:43:17
  Speaker 1: they're going to tell you they still have Texas in
• 1:43:18
  Speaker 1: the top 10, I'm pretty sure. So Texas is underranked
• 1:43:21
  Speaker 1: right now. Ole Miss is probably ranked, like legitimately they
• 1:43:25
  Speaker 1: should probably be ranked around the same as Texas is.
• 1:43:28
  Speaker 1: They should both be probably somewhere, I would guess, around
• 1:43:31
  Speaker 1: like number 10 or so. So the rankings are kind
• 1:43:35
  Speaker 1: of skewing the perception a little bit on these two teams.
• 1:43:39
  Speaker 1: Ole Miss has looked good recently. They just blew out
• 1:43:41
  Speaker 1: a ranked Missouri team last week. And, you know, I
• 1:43:44
  Speaker 1: kind of like the Missouri side in that one. You know,
• 1:43:47
  Speaker 1: the Simmons revenge angle against the team that replaced him
• 1:43:50
  Speaker 1: at QB and whatever. Maybe this Missouri team's just not
• 1:43:53
  Speaker 1: that good, though. I don't know, man. Ole Miss got
• 1:43:56
  Speaker 1: the blowout win. They've had a couple blowout wins in
• 1:43:58
  Speaker 1: a row. So I think the public will... leaning towards
• 1:44:02
  Speaker 1: them here in this game they're playing a third road
• 1:44:04
  Speaker 1: game in four games though which is not that easy
• 1:44:07
  Speaker 1: to do obviously it's not that easy to go play
• 1:44:08
  Speaker 1: in Texas where Texas at home they did beat Ohio
• 1:44:13
  Speaker 1: State at home but yes I know I realize that
• 1:44:16
  Speaker 1: they lost at home to Florida last week and the
• 1:44:18
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma game was not a home game that was in
• 1:44:21
  Speaker 1: a neutral location at the Cotton Bowl So, yes, Texas
• 1:44:25
  Speaker 1: has one loss here in the stadium against Florida. But
• 1:44:28
  Speaker 1: that was a win. I gave it out on the
• 1:44:30
  Speaker 1: show last week. I gave out Florida in that game.
• 1:44:33
  Speaker 1: My reasoning was Florida was coming off a real hideous loss.
• 1:44:37
  Speaker 1: at home to South Carolina that had knocked them completely
• 1:44:39
  Speaker 1: from the rankings. Texas was coming off back-to-back big games
• 1:44:43
  Speaker 1: against Tennessee and Oklahoma. And the first loss, I think,
• 1:44:47
  Speaker 1: a lot of times puts you in a hangover in
• 1:44:49
  Speaker 1: the next game. So I think that's what happened with
• 1:44:51
  Speaker 1: Texas here in this last game. I think they overlooked Florida.
• 1:44:54
  Speaker 1: I think they were coming off two big games. I
• 1:44:55
  Speaker 1: think they were in a hangover spot. And I think
• 1:44:57
  Speaker 1: they might have been looking ahead to this Ole Miss game.
• 1:45:00
  Speaker 1: So they got caught. But now I think this is
• 1:45:02
  Speaker 1: the bounce back for Texas. Now they've lost two games.
• 1:45:05
  Speaker 1: They're not out of it yet. They could still make
• 1:45:08
  Speaker 1: the playoffs, even though I know their goal is obviously
• 1:45:11
  Speaker 1: to win the championship. Obviously, that's Texas' goal this season.
• 1:45:15
  Speaker 1: But as long as they make the playoffs, that goal
• 1:45:17
  Speaker 1: is still alive. So they're not out of it yet,
• 1:45:20
  Speaker 1: even though they have two conference losses. The SEC is
• 1:45:23
  Speaker 1: such a strong conference that some team might be able
• 1:45:25
  Speaker 1: to get in here with two losses. There are no
• 1:45:28
  Speaker 1: undefeated teams in this conference already.
• 1:45:30
  Speaker 4: So....
• 1:45:32
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I expect Texas to be in a bounce-back spot here.
• 1:45:35
  Speaker 1: Ole Miss, I think still the jury's a little bit
• 1:45:40
  Speaker 1: out on Ole Miss. Their one really, really good win
• 1:45:43
  Speaker 1: was the one against LSU, but that was a game
• 1:45:46
  Speaker 1: that you knew they were going to get massively up for,
• 1:45:48
  Speaker 1: even though... I didn't really love the Ole Miss side
• 1:45:51
  Speaker 1: in that game. In fact, I think I leaned against
• 1:45:53
  Speaker 1: it a little bit. But when you saw that game
• 1:45:55
  Speaker 1: play out, you know they put a ton of focus
• 1:45:57
  Speaker 1: into that game. They wanted to beat the coach that
• 1:46:00
  Speaker 1: abandoned them, Lane Kipman. Texas, their resume looks a little
• 1:46:05
  Speaker 1: bit better. They already have a statement win against Ohio State,
• 1:46:08
  Speaker 1: who I still think is legitimately actually the best team
• 1:46:11
  Speaker 1: in the country. So I would lay it with Texas
• 1:46:13
  Speaker 1: in this one. Not going to be a popular opinion,
• 1:46:16
  Speaker 1: I assume, but again, I'm going to warn you again.
• 1:46:18
  Speaker 1: You have a public underdog in this game, Mississippi. 73%
• 1:46:21
  Speaker 1: of the tickets on them, 66% of the cash. They're
• 1:46:25
  Speaker 1: a public underdog with less of the money on them.
• 1:46:28
  Speaker 1: Oddsmakers telling you Texas... is supposed to win this game
• 1:46:32
  Speaker 1: because they're favored in the public based on recent perception
• 1:46:35
  Speaker 1: and bias. They don't even want it. So this one's
• 1:46:38
  Speaker 1: a fairly strong opinion for me as well. I like
• 1:46:41
  Speaker 1: Texas in this one quite a bit. I don't see
• 1:46:43
  Speaker 1: any other way to look at that game. I would
• 1:46:45
  Speaker 1: lay it with Texas, especially if you can lay three.
• 1:46:48
  Speaker 1: It looks like you can right now. It's gone down
• 1:46:51
  Speaker 1: a little bit from three and a half to three.
• 1:46:52
  Speaker 1: It looks like it is three with juice. But, yeah,
• 1:46:55
  Speaker 1: you can lay the three with a little bit of juice.
• 1:46:57
  Speaker 1: That looks pretty good to me. So, yeah, Texas I
• 1:47:00
  Speaker 1: think is the right side there. Next game is a
• 1:47:03
  Speaker 1: play on my card.
• 1:47:06
  Speaker 5: You want to know what I'm betting?
• 1:47:12
  Speaker 1: Next, I mean, this one, nobody's going to like this
• 1:47:14
  Speaker 1: one either, but you know me, man. We're going to
• 1:47:16
  Speaker 1: take Vanderbilt plus 10.5 against Kentucky. The stock could not
• 1:47:20
  Speaker 1: be higher on Kentucky, dude. SEC Network game, 7.30 p.m. here.
• 1:47:24
  Speaker 1: Kentucky ranked number 12 in the country. Give me a break.
• 1:47:28
  Speaker 1: They are not the 12th best team in the country, okay?
• 1:47:31
  Speaker 1: I know they're having a good season. They've come from
• 1:47:33
  Speaker 1: out of nowhere. They look good, but this is the
• 1:47:36
  Speaker 1: peak for them. You know what I mean? This is
• 1:47:39
  Speaker 1: the spot where you've got to fade them in the market.
• 1:47:42
  Speaker 1: I think the market is at its highest on Kentucky
• 1:47:46
  Speaker 1: right now. You've got to sell on Kentucky. They are
• 1:47:49
  Speaker 1: not the 12th best team in the country. They're 6-1.
• 1:47:52
  Speaker 1: They played well. I understand that. This Texas A &
• 1:47:54
  Speaker 1: M win is starting to look worse and worse because
• 1:47:57
  Speaker 1: that A & M team has not figured it out.
• 1:47:59
  Speaker 1: They're not actually good. Their one really good win was
• 1:48:02
  Speaker 1: against LSU. Yeah, okay. That was a good win. No
• 1:48:06
  Speaker 1: doubt about that. Now they went on the road after
• 1:48:08
  Speaker 1: that last week and they pulled off a big upset
• 1:48:10
  Speaker 1: of Oklahoma last week too. But now what you have
• 1:48:13
  Speaker 1: is Kentucky coming off two big wins. Huge statement win
• 1:48:16
  Speaker 1: against LSU and then they didn't suffer the letdown last
• 1:48:19
  Speaker 1: week because Oklahoma was also in a letdown spot. So
• 1:48:22
  Speaker 1: I think both teams, again, it was just kind of
• 1:48:25
  Speaker 1: the competing letdown spots here and which team was going
• 1:48:28
  Speaker 1: to wind up doing better here. But this was also
• 1:48:30
  Speaker 1: a misleading win for Kentucky because guess what? Oklahoma outgained
• 1:48:35
  Speaker 1: Kentucky by over 100 yards. Kentucky Didn't really even put
• 1:48:39
  Speaker 1: up that much offense. They only put up 230 yards
• 1:48:41
  Speaker 1: of total offense here. It's a good defense, though, Oklahoma,
• 1:48:45
  Speaker 1: for sure. But you're going to be asking this Kentucky
• 1:48:48
  Speaker 1: offense to now turn around and win by double digits? No. Uh-uh.
• 1:48:53
  Speaker 1: And Oklahoma also had four turnovers in this game, which
• 1:48:56
  Speaker 1: was what I was about to say. So that obviously
• 1:48:58
  Speaker 1: skewed the result of this game. Like, Kentucky capitalized on
• 1:49:02
  Speaker 1: these turnovers. They actually shouldn't have even won this game, statistically.
• 1:49:06
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma outgained Kentucky. Oklahoma outperformed them in this game. Kentucky
• 1:49:10
  Speaker 1: won anyway, so you get a misleading upset win. Kentucky's
• 1:49:14
  Speaker 1: now off of two straight upset wins. Yeah, and it
• 1:49:18
  Speaker 1: gets a little bit worse because as I already mentioned,
• 1:49:20
  Speaker 1: they got Tennessee up next too, although I know it
• 1:49:22
  Speaker 1: is after a bye, but still that's a huge game
• 1:49:25
  Speaker 1: on deck. They got three ranked opponents coming up after this, Tennessee, Florida, Missouri.
• 1:49:30
  Speaker 1: They could easily look right past Vandy here. And Kentucky
• 1:49:33
  Speaker 1: also falls into another situation that I like where Kentucky
• 1:49:36
  Speaker 1: is coming off a win as a huge underdog or
• 1:49:39
  Speaker 1: a big underdog. They're like a touchdown underdog. And now
• 1:49:41
  Speaker 1: they're a 10, like a double-digit favorite here?
• 1:49:44
  Speaker 5: No. No.
• 1:49:45
  Speaker 1: You gotta fade teams that are in a spot like that.
• 1:49:47
  Speaker 1: When they go from the big underdog role to the
• 1:49:50
  Speaker 1: big favorite role, that's not good. And on the other
• 1:49:53
  Speaker 1: side of things, I like it when teams go from
• 1:49:56
  Speaker 1: being a big favorite and not looking good to them
• 1:49:58
  Speaker 1: being a big underdog the next week. This is the
• 1:50:01
  Speaker 1: opposite of that. This is looking really good as a
• 1:50:03
  Speaker 1: big underdog to now being a big favorite. Totally different role.
• 1:50:07
  Speaker 1: This Vandy team is kind of sneaky. They play pretty
• 1:50:09
  Speaker 1: well as an underdog. They're still looking for their first
• 1:50:11
  Speaker 1: win in the SEC this year because I know they
• 1:50:14
  Speaker 1: don't have Pavia anymore, but Their schedule hasn't really been
• 1:50:17
  Speaker 1: that easy, but they're coming off a game where I
• 1:50:19
  Speaker 1: admit we had Vandy on the show last week. They
• 1:50:21
  Speaker 1: did not even win the game, let alone cover. I
• 1:50:25
  Speaker 1: understand that. But Vandy shot themselves in the foot in
• 1:50:28
  Speaker 1: this game big time, man. They're a six-point favorite in
• 1:50:31
  Speaker 1: this game, and they're coming off losing the game outright. And,
• 1:50:35
  Speaker 1: you know, I talk about when a team is a
• 1:50:36
  Speaker 1: favorite and they lose. So Vandy is actually doing the
• 1:50:39
  Speaker 1: opposite of what Kentucky's doing here. Vandy is doing what
• 1:50:42
  Speaker 1: I just talked about, where they're going from playing badly
• 1:50:45
  Speaker 1: as a favorite... of almost a touchdown to now being
• 1:50:47
  Speaker 1: a huge underdog here. So they're shifting to the other
• 1:50:50
  Speaker 1: role here. So I think they're going to be in
• 1:50:51
  Speaker 1: a more focused spot after they played bad as a
• 1:50:54
  Speaker 1: favorite here. This game was maybe slightly misleading in that
• 1:50:57
  Speaker 1: Vandy had two turnovers, and one of them was when
• 1:51:00
  Speaker 1: they were driving late in the game in a tied game,
• 1:51:02
  Speaker 1: and they threw an interception, I think, on the Arkansas
• 1:51:06
  Speaker 1: side of midfield. Really, really pissed me off. and they
• 1:51:10
  Speaker 1: wound up losing the game after that. Yeah, they did
• 1:51:13
  Speaker 1: get out-gamed by a little bit, but still a little
• 1:51:15
  Speaker 1: bit misleading here as well. So I think you have
• 1:51:17
  Speaker 1: two teams that are kind of coming off of misleading results.
• 1:51:19
  Speaker 1: You have the teams both flipping roles, underdog versus favorite here.
• 1:51:24
  Speaker 1: You got what I think is a big letdown spot,
• 1:51:26
  Speaker 1: double letdown spot maybe for Kentucky, plus I think it's
• 1:51:29
  Speaker 1: a sandwich spot because Tennessee's up next. There's Vandy, should
• 1:51:32
  Speaker 1: be in a bounce-back spot. The ugly performance is a favorite.
• 1:51:35
  Speaker 1: They're not going to overlook anybody right now, just trying
• 1:51:38
  Speaker 1: to get a win here. And you know they'll get
• 1:51:40
  Speaker 1: up for a game against a ranked Kentucky team. And
• 1:51:43
  Speaker 1: I still don't trust this Kentucky offense to do this
• 1:51:47
  Speaker 1: as now all of a sudden a big favorite. This
• 1:51:49
  Speaker 1: Kentucky team, they play pretty well as an underdog. But
• 1:51:51
  Speaker 1: as a big favorite like this, it's a totally different scenario.
• 1:51:55
  Speaker 1: You need them to win by more than 10 points.
• 1:51:57
  Speaker 1: Not going to happen, I don't think. Public is on Kentucky,
• 1:52:00
  Speaker 1: no surprise there. 72% of the tickets on them. 71%
• 1:52:03
  Speaker 1: of the cash on Vandy. Numbers just stayed at 10.5
• 1:52:07
  Speaker 1: all week, pretty much no movement. So, all right, we'll
• 1:52:10
  Speaker 1: take the 10.5. The total's not that low, so that's
• 1:52:13
  Speaker 1: one drawback, I guess, is it's 51, 51.5, but it's
• 1:52:17
  Speaker 1: not exactly high either. So, yeah, I think it's a
• 1:52:20
  Speaker 1: great spot to do it. We'll take Vandy plus the 10.5
• 1:52:22
  Speaker 1: in that one. All right. NBC, 7.30 p.m. Eastern, number
• 1:52:28
  Speaker 1: 16 USC having to go to Wisconsin. USC, since they've
• 1:52:32
  Speaker 1: been in the Big Ten, they've struggled in this role
• 1:52:35
  Speaker 1: going to some of these more eastern locations. Like earlier
• 1:52:38
  Speaker 1: this year, they went to Rutgers. Didn't look that good.
• 1:52:41
  Speaker 1: They did win in Penn State in Happy Valley in
• 1:52:44
  Speaker 1: their last game, which I liked Penn State quite a
• 1:52:46
  Speaker 1: bit in that one. It was the Penn State whiteout
• 1:52:49
  Speaker 1: game as well, so very, very difficult. to go in
• 1:52:51
  Speaker 1: and win that game. But USC was able to win
• 1:52:53
  Speaker 1: that game. That was a good performance from them. But
• 1:52:56
  Speaker 1: Penn State really just may not be that good, man.
• 1:52:59
  Speaker 1: And now USC, I don't know if they went back
• 1:53:03
  Speaker 1: to the Pacific Coast. They probably didn't, right? Because that
• 1:53:05
  Speaker 1: would be stupid if you just played Penn State and
• 1:53:07
  Speaker 1: you know you have Wisconsin on deck. I don't know
• 1:53:10
  Speaker 1: if they went back, but I think they did have
• 1:53:12
  Speaker 1: a bye, right? So I don't know what USC did
• 1:53:14
  Speaker 1: last week because they did have a bye, so they
• 1:53:16
  Speaker 1: probably did. actually go back to the Pacific Coast, but
• 1:53:20
  Speaker 1: I'm not sure. Somebody can maybe look that up. I'm
• 1:53:22
  Speaker 1: not playing this game, but yeah, I mean, I guess
• 1:53:26
  Speaker 1: that's one thing you have to see. But one thing
• 1:53:27
  Speaker 1: that we do know is USC went into a bye
• 1:53:30
  Speaker 1: on a good note. They won two games in a row.
• 1:53:32
  Speaker 1: They won the whiteout game in Penn State. So, I
• 1:53:35
  Speaker 1: think that bye comes at a time where it might
• 1:53:36
  Speaker 1: disrupt their momentum. So I think it is a negative
• 1:53:39
  Speaker 1: for USC. Having to go play in Wisconsin, they're not
• 1:53:42
  Speaker 1: that familiar with this venue. Wisconsin tends to be somewhat
• 1:53:45
  Speaker 1: tough at home. And look who USC plays next. Oh yeah,
• 1:53:49
  Speaker 1: Ohio State is who they play next. That's one of
• 1:53:52
  Speaker 1: their biggest games of the season. So they definitely could
• 1:53:55
  Speaker 1: be looking ahead to that. Wisconsin's coming off... An ugly
• 1:53:58
  Speaker 1: game where they only put up seven points against UCLA.
• 1:54:03
  Speaker 1: UCLA way better defensively than USC, though. USC is more
• 1:54:07
  Speaker 1: of a finesse team, and it's about offense for them.
• 1:54:10
  Speaker 1: UCLA is kind of a physical team now with Chesney there,
• 1:54:13
  Speaker 1: and they play good defense. So totally different styles between
• 1:54:17
  Speaker 1: USC and UCLA. Wisconsin is back to actually playing more
• 1:54:21
  Speaker 1: of a physical style. Like we remember in the good days,
• 1:54:25
  Speaker 1: Wisconsin was playing that physical style. But then for a while,
• 1:54:28
  Speaker 1: they've been playing more of like a I don't know,
• 1:54:31
  Speaker 1: kind of weird spread offense type of thing, going away
• 1:54:33
  Speaker 1: from that. But not anymore. Under whoever their coach is now,
• 1:54:37
  Speaker 1: they're playing this physical style again. So I think that
• 1:54:40
  Speaker 1: could kind of throw USC off a little bit. USC
• 1:54:42
  Speaker 1: does not want to face these physical teams as a
• 1:54:45
  Speaker 1: finesse team. I know Wisconsin did. It was a big
• 1:54:48
  Speaker 1: game last week for them against UCLA. It ended a
• 1:54:50
  Speaker 1: four-game win streak for them. But it was still an
• 1:54:53
  Speaker 1: ugly result, like only scoring seven points. You know, negative
• 1:54:58
  Speaker 1: buy situation for USC here. Weird travel spot for them.
• 1:55:01
  Speaker 1: I think the lean is Wisconsin in this game. I
• 1:55:05
  Speaker 1: don't want to put it on my card because Wisconsin
• 1:55:07
  Speaker 1: is still coming off a big game, but the public
• 1:55:08
  Speaker 1: seems to be on USC here to some extent. 59%
• 1:55:12
  Speaker 1: of the tickets on them. The real money appears to
• 1:55:14
  Speaker 1: be on Wisconsin. 60% of the cash on them. And
• 1:55:17
  Speaker 1: it looks too easy, right, to play USC as the
• 1:55:20
  Speaker 1: number 16 ranked team in the country, laying only 2.5%,
• 1:55:23
  Speaker 1: basically 3%. On the road, looks way too easy. And
• 1:55:28
  Speaker 1: the total's low, 49.5. And I think the total inside
• 1:55:31
  Speaker 1: might be correlated in this one. I think USC, they'd
• 1:55:34
  Speaker 1: rather have this be a shootout and use their offense,
• 1:55:37
  Speaker 1: whereas Wisconsin wants to slow the game down and turn
• 1:55:40
  Speaker 1: it into a smash-mouth type of game. So I think
• 1:55:44
  Speaker 1: those things are correlated. USC and the over are correlated.
• 1:55:47
  Speaker 1: Wisconsin and the under are correlated. And the money appears
• 1:55:50
  Speaker 1: to be indicating towards the under in this game as well.
• 1:55:52
  Speaker 1: So everything in the market seems to line up as
• 1:55:55
  Speaker 1: far as that correlation. If you like Wisconsin, I would
• 1:55:59
  Speaker 1: try to get the three. USC will be a public side,
• 1:56:03
  Speaker 1: so you should be able to get the three on that.
• 1:56:04
  Speaker 1: I think maybe a little bit of juice, but still,
• 1:56:07
  Speaker 1: I would get that key number three on Wisconsin if
• 1:56:09
  Speaker 1: you're going to play that game. That's the way I
• 1:56:12
  Speaker 1: lean there. Next game up is my final play that's
• 1:56:15
  Speaker 1: on my card.
• 1:56:16
  Speaker 5: You want to know what I'm betting?
• 1:56:21
  Speaker 1: I'm starting to think that thing is really cheesy, but
• 1:56:23
  Speaker 1: I don't know. Maybe it fits my style, but you
• 1:56:26
  Speaker 1: probably guessed it. We're on another underdog here. Dude, I
• 1:56:29
  Speaker 1: give out favorites, too. I gave out a couple last week.
• 1:56:32
  Speaker 1: I think one of them won and one of them lost.
• 1:56:33
  Speaker 1: Or no, both of them lost, right? Or no, I
• 1:56:35
  Speaker 1: had three favorites last week. Ah, I forget. Whatever. We're
• 1:56:39
  Speaker 1: on Iowa State plus 11 in this one, or 10
• 1:56:41
  Speaker 1: and a half. Doesn't really matter between 10 and 11.
• 1:56:44
  Speaker 1: It shouldn't, at least. We're going to fade the currently
• 1:56:47
  Speaker 1: ranked 25th ranked Arizona here on ESPN2 at 7.30 p.m.
• 1:56:53
  Speaker 5: Eastern.
• 1:56:53
  Speaker 1: And yes, I know Iowa State is having to go
• 1:56:56
  Speaker 1: to a bit more Western location here, but Arizona. I
• 1:57:00
  Speaker 1: think they're not in the Pacific time zone though. So
• 1:57:01
  Speaker 1: this is only a one time zone shift. If I'm
• 1:57:04
  Speaker 1: not mistaken for Iowa state here, but I also don't
• 1:57:06
  Speaker 1: like the spot for Arizona and I don't like that.
• 1:57:08
  Speaker 1: They're ranked number 25. All of a sudden, a lot
• 1:57:11
  Speaker 1: of times when those teams first bust into the rankings, uh,
• 1:57:15
  Speaker 1: it's not a good thing. Like a lot of times
• 1:57:16
  Speaker 1: it puts a target on their back and they aren't
• 1:57:19
  Speaker 1: good in that role because they're not used to it.
• 1:57:21
  Speaker 1: And for Arizona, they're coming out of what I think
• 1:57:23
  Speaker 1: is a bad buy situation. They had a buy last week.
• 1:57:26
  Speaker 1: They went into the buy on a four game win
• 1:57:28
  Speaker 1: streak and they blew out West Virginia on the road
• 1:57:30
  Speaker 1: going into that buy. So I think that's bad. So
• 1:57:33
  Speaker 1: I think their momentum might be stopped here. They might
• 1:57:36
  Speaker 1: overlook this Iowa state team. That's kind of in a
• 1:57:38
  Speaker 1: rebuild mode here after, uh, Matt Campbell left and went
• 1:57:42
  Speaker 1: to Penn State with Beck, the quarterback, and took some
• 1:57:44
  Speaker 1: of the guys there. But Iowa State's sneakily been an
• 1:57:47
  Speaker 1: all-right team this year. They've been competitive. They can compete
• 1:57:50
  Speaker 1: as a big dog, and that's what you're asking them
• 1:57:52
  Speaker 1: to do here. Arizona's momentum could stall out here. I'm
• 1:57:56
  Speaker 1: not impressed by Arizona's resume so far. I mean, their
• 1:57:58
  Speaker 1: best opponent they faced was BYU on the road, and yeah,
• 1:58:01
  Speaker 1: they did okay in that game. They lost by 11,
• 1:58:03
  Speaker 1: and it was actually a little bit closer than that late.
• 1:58:06
  Speaker 1: But since then, it's not that impressive, man. Their best
• 1:58:09
  Speaker 1: win since then is that. West Virginia road win it's
• 1:58:12
  Speaker 1: been an easy schedule so far for Arizona and look
• 1:58:15
  Speaker 1: who they have on deck they got Texas Tech man
• 1:58:18
  Speaker 1: that's a huge game because it could theoretically maybe determine
• 1:58:23
  Speaker 1: like who's going to be in the Big 12 championship
• 1:58:25
  Speaker 1: game at the very least So that's a huge game
• 1:58:28
  Speaker 1: on deck for Arizona. So I think they might look
• 1:58:30
  Speaker 1: past Iowa State in a spot like this. I think
• 1:58:32
  Speaker 1: it sort of becomes a sandwich spot when you're coming
• 1:58:35
  Speaker 1: off a bye that you went into on a good
• 1:58:36
  Speaker 1: note and you got nothing to fix during the bye.
• 1:58:38
  Speaker 1: You got a big game on deck. Iowa State also
• 1:58:42
  Speaker 1: is coming out of a bye. They went into the
• 1:58:44
  Speaker 1: bye on a negative note, though. They went into the
• 1:58:45
  Speaker 1: bye losing at BYU. Only lost by 14, though, in
• 1:58:50
  Speaker 1: a primetime Friday game. They didn't really play that badly
• 1:58:52
  Speaker 1: in that game. So Iowa State went into the bye...
• 1:58:56
  Speaker 1: I think advantageously, let's say. So I think they'll be
• 1:59:00
  Speaker 1: able to use the bye to fix some things here.
• 1:59:02
  Speaker 1: And Iowa State has clearly faced a more difficult schedule.
• 1:59:05
  Speaker 1: Both teams faced BYU and both lost by about the
• 1:59:08
  Speaker 1: same margin on the road at BYU. But in addition
• 1:59:11
  Speaker 1: to that, Iowa State has a 14-point home loss to Utah.
• 1:59:14
  Speaker 1: That's really not bad. And a three-point loss in the
• 1:59:17
  Speaker 1: Cyhawk game on the road at Iowa. That's not a
• 1:59:21
  Speaker 1: bad result by any means at all either. So Iowa
• 1:59:24
  Speaker 1: State is more battle-tested right now than Arizona is. Obviously,
• 1:59:27
  Speaker 1: I'm not saying they're the better team. They're obviously not.
• 1:59:30
  Speaker 1: Arizona's laying a ton of points here. But you get
• 1:59:32
  Speaker 1: a battle-tested Iowa State team here that's had a reasonable
• 1:59:36
  Speaker 1: amount of competitive outings here as an underdog. So that's
• 1:59:39
  Speaker 1: not bad to me. I think you have an inverted
• 1:59:41
  Speaker 1: bye situation here with a bye. Helps the team that
• 1:59:44
  Speaker 1: went into it on the bad note, which is Iowa State.
• 1:59:47
  Speaker 1: You have Arizona with a pretty major look ahead, I think, here.
• 1:59:51
  Speaker 1: Arizona maybe a little bit overrated as well. So, yeah,
• 1:59:53
  Speaker 1: let's take Iowa State plus the points here. Arizona's got
• 1:59:56
  Speaker 1: 59% of the tickets on them. They're not hugely public,
• 1:59:59
  Speaker 1: but somewhat public. 50-50 on the money. So, I think
• 2:00:02
  Speaker 1: the real money is on the Iowa State side. It
• 2:00:05
  Speaker 1: opened 11.5, and it's sitting around 10.5 or 11 now.
• 2:00:07
  Speaker 1: Not a.
• 2:00:10
  Speaker 1: A ton of movement here. But yeah, you'll be able
• 2:00:11
  Speaker 1: to at least get 10.5 on that. So Iowa State
• 2:00:15
  Speaker 1: will be my last of the plays there. Let's finish
• 2:00:19
  Speaker 1: this off, man. We've got a few more games to
• 2:00:21
  Speaker 1: talk about. Syracuse at North Carolina on ACC Network at 7.30 p.m.
• 2:00:27
  Speaker 1: North Carolina is not in a good spot here, man.
• 2:00:30
  Speaker 1: They're coming off 2-0. Three, really. Well, actually four, if
• 2:00:33
  Speaker 1: you want to say it. Big games where they had
• 2:00:35
  Speaker 1: to play at Clemson. They lost by eight. They played
• 2:00:38
  Speaker 1: competitively at home against Notre Dame and only lost by 11.
• 2:00:42
  Speaker 1: That's not bad. Then they went on the road and
• 2:00:44
  Speaker 1: upset Pitt, who was undefeated and ranked at the time,
• 2:00:47
  Speaker 1: but down to their backup quarterback. And Pitt was kind
• 2:00:50
  Speaker 1: of in a bad spot there, except I thought they
• 2:00:52
  Speaker 1: would get up for the game a little more with
• 2:00:53
  Speaker 1: their backup QB, but whatever. North Carolina pulled off that upset.
• 2:00:58
  Speaker 1: Then they went on the road and they beat one
• 2:00:59
  Speaker 1: of their main rivals, Duke, last week, and they pulled
• 2:01:02
  Speaker 1: it out at the very end after UNC was winning
• 2:01:04
  Speaker 1: the game for most of the game. Duke took the
• 2:01:06
  Speaker 1: lead late, and then North Carolina was able to win
• 2:01:09
  Speaker 1: right at the end. Now they're coming off all that,
• 2:01:11
  Speaker 1: and they're playing lowly Syracuse. And look who North Carolina
• 2:01:16
  Speaker 1: has on deck. Oh, yeah, Miami. Miami. the current number
• 2:01:20
  Speaker 1: one ranked team in the country. So yeah, this is
• 2:01:23
  Speaker 1: a sandwich spot for North Carolina, really bad spot for them.
• 2:01:26
  Speaker 1: I'm still not sold on North Carolina being that good
• 2:01:28
  Speaker 1: in the Bill Belichick era here. Now for Syracuse though,
• 2:01:33
  Speaker 1: my main worry about Syracuse is they're also coming off
• 2:01:35
  Speaker 1: a really nice performance two in a row really at Virginia.
• 2:01:39
  Speaker 1: And then against Louisville last week, they hosted Louisville and
• 2:01:42
  Speaker 1: Louisville was a double digit favorite in that game. I
• 2:01:45
  Speaker 1: know Louisville wasn't ranked, so maybe it didn't really feel
• 2:01:47
  Speaker 1: like it, but Syracuse put in a big effort as
• 2:01:50
  Speaker 1: a double-digit dog, and they almost were able to come
• 2:01:53
  Speaker 1: through in that game. They only lost by eight. It
• 2:01:55
  Speaker 1: was a close game late. So Syracuse is coming off
• 2:01:58
  Speaker 1: a big performance as well and having to go down
• 2:02:00
  Speaker 1: to North Carolina, and they do have SMU on deck.
• 2:02:03
  Speaker 1: But I don't think Syracuse is going to overlook North Carolina.
• 2:02:06
  Speaker 1: Syracuse isn't really going to overlook anybody because they're the
• 2:02:09
  Speaker 1: only winless team in the ACC at this point. And
• 2:02:13
  Speaker 1: North Carolina may have more of a tendency to overlook them.
• 2:02:16
  Speaker 1: The other thing about Syracuse is you've got to figure
• 2:02:18
  Speaker 1: out what's going on with their quarterback situation here. And
• 2:02:21
  Speaker 1: Jelly was their starter at the start of the season.
• 2:02:24
  Speaker 1: I thought that they benched him because he sucked, but
• 2:02:26
  Speaker 1: I guess he actually got hurt. Then they went with Odom,
• 2:02:29
  Speaker 1: and he looked really good against UConn. And then I
• 2:02:32
  Speaker 1: think either he got hurt or Nelson was hurt at
• 2:02:35
  Speaker 1: that point. And Nelson came back, and I guess Nelson
• 2:02:37
  Speaker 1: is kind of their... maybe Nelson is actually their number
• 2:02:41
  Speaker 1: two quarterback behind Angeli. I have no idea. He played
• 2:02:43
  Speaker 1: the last two games. He wasn't that bad either though.
• 2:02:46
  Speaker 1: In the last game, he definitely wasn't against Louisville, but
• 2:02:49
  Speaker 1: I don't know. Cause there are rumors that Angeli might
• 2:02:51
  Speaker 1: be back now. So if Angeli comes back, I probably
• 2:02:55
  Speaker 1: like Syracuse less in this game because they're going to
• 2:02:58
  Speaker 1: be switching back to their original starter. And there's going
• 2:03:00
  Speaker 1: to be maybe a chemistry thing there. Um, The line
• 2:03:04
  Speaker 1: might shift a little bit, and you might get less
• 2:03:05
  Speaker 1: value on the Syracuse side for that reason. But I
• 2:03:09
  Speaker 1: would still lean Syracuse in this game, even though we
• 2:03:11
  Speaker 1: don't really know who their quarterback is going to be.
• 2:03:14
  Speaker 1: I think the spot is really bad for North Carolina,
• 2:03:16
  Speaker 1: at the very least. It's not great for Syracuse, but
• 2:03:19
  Speaker 1: I think it's worse for North Carolina. North Carolina, 71%
• 2:03:22
  Speaker 1: of tickets on them, 55% of the cash. So the
• 2:03:25
  Speaker 1: real money appears to be fading North Carolina pretty strongly.
• 2:03:29
  Speaker 1: The Republic side, the public is on the Belichick train again.
• 2:03:33
  Speaker 1: It's a 9.5 is the number here, and it's not
• 2:03:36
  Speaker 1: a high total. It's in the 40s, though it has
• 2:03:38
  Speaker 1: gone up a bit. But, yeah, I just don't really
• 2:03:41
  Speaker 1: think North Carolina should really be laying a number like
• 2:03:43
  Speaker 1: this either, though. So their offense is still not really
• 2:03:48
  Speaker 1: that good. I don't think we've seen enough out of
• 2:03:50
  Speaker 1: them to justify that. So, yeah, I like Syracuse in
• 2:03:53
  Speaker 1: that one, plus the points, obviously. Always against the spread, man.
• 2:03:58
  Speaker 1: Utah State at Texas State, 7.30 p.m. Eastern on CBS Sports.
• 2:04:03
  Speaker 1: Somewhat of an interesting game here. Crazy that this is
• 2:04:06
  Speaker 1: a Pac-12 game. Utah State just barely got by Washington State,
• 2:04:10
  Speaker 1: and I believe they went into a bye on that note,
• 2:04:12
  Speaker 1: if I'm not mistaken. They did. So that was one
• 2:04:15
  Speaker 1: of those midweek games. They had a bye after that.
• 2:04:19
  Speaker 1: So did they go into the bye on a positive
• 2:04:21
  Speaker 1: note or a negative note? That's kind of the question
• 2:04:23
  Speaker 1: I would have here. They only beat Washington State by
• 2:04:25
  Speaker 1: one as a bigger favor than that at home. So
• 2:04:28
  Speaker 1: I would consider that to kind of be a bad
• 2:04:30
  Speaker 1: note that they went into the bye off of. So
• 2:04:32
  Speaker 1: I think this will be a helpful bye to Utah
• 2:04:34
  Speaker 1: State because that was a bad performance for them. against
• 2:04:38
  Speaker 1: Washington State. I think they'll get up for this game
• 2:04:39
  Speaker 1: against Texas State. Problem is, Texas State is a newcomer
• 2:04:43
  Speaker 1: in this conference. Well, this is a newly reformed conference,
• 2:04:46
  Speaker 1: but Utah State is not used to playing in San Marcos, Texas.
• 2:04:51
  Speaker 1: So it will be an unfamiliarity disadvantage for Utah State here. Now,
• 2:04:56
  Speaker 1: for Texas State, they looked way too good, though. I
• 2:04:58
  Speaker 1: think they played last week, and they blew out Colorado State,
• 2:05:01
  Speaker 1: but that Colorado State defense cannot stop anybody, as I mentioned.
• 2:05:05
  Speaker 1: That was last week, so Texas State has less rest.
• 2:05:08
  Speaker 1: I think they looked a bit too good in that game,
• 2:05:10
  Speaker 1: and Texas State has Boise on deck, which is a
• 2:05:13
  Speaker 1: huge game. Boise ranked and one of the contenders to
• 2:05:17
  Speaker 1: win this conference, obviously, so... Yeah, to me, I think
• 2:05:21
  Speaker 1: it's a bad spot for Texas State, basically. So my
• 2:05:24
  Speaker 1: opinion would be to lean towards Utah State here. But
• 2:05:27
  Speaker 1: the money does not appear to agree. I don't understand it.
• 2:05:31
  Speaker 1: And Texas State opened nine, and they're already up to
• 2:05:33
  Speaker 1: 13 and a half. I don't know if there's an
• 2:05:35
  Speaker 1: injury going on with the Utah State side. I should know,
• 2:05:39
  Speaker 1: but I play scheduling dynamics, man, and market reads. That's
• 2:05:43
  Speaker 1: what I do. And I can see that Utah State
• 2:05:46
  Speaker 1: is 50-50 on the tickets here. 94% of the cash
• 2:05:49
  Speaker 1: on Texas State, but I do not agree. And if
• 2:05:52
  Speaker 1: the line is moved four points, whatever, that might be
• 2:05:55
  Speaker 1: an overreaction to whatever the hell it is. So you
• 2:05:57
  Speaker 1: get more points with Utah State here. It is a
• 2:06:00
  Speaker 1: high total, though. So keep that in mind. This Texas
• 2:06:02
  Speaker 1: State team, they play really good offense, but they also
• 2:06:05
  Speaker 1: turn the ball over a ton, and they have never
• 2:06:08
  Speaker 1: cleaned that up. So I don't know what the deal is.
• 2:06:10
  Speaker 1: Usually a team like Texas State, when they make a
• 2:06:13
  Speaker 1: bunch of mistakes like that, they usually clean it up,
• 2:06:16
  Speaker 1: and they're like a play-on team. After that, if they're
• 2:06:20
  Speaker 1: a team that's constantly winning the yardage battle, but they
• 2:06:23
  Speaker 1: lose the turnover battle, they usually clean that up, but
• 2:06:25
  Speaker 1: Texas State has not done that. So I don't know, man.
• 2:06:29
  Speaker 1: But yeah, based on the situation, I would lean Utah
• 2:06:31
  Speaker 1: State in that game. I don't know what the money
• 2:06:33
  Speaker 1: is doing in that game, but those are my thoughts there. UTSA,
• 2:06:37
  Speaker 1: the hosts of that tragic event with that Air Force
• 2:06:42
  Speaker 1: dude there, they're on the road at Tulane here on
• 2:06:45
  Speaker 1: ESPNU at 8 p.m. UTSA, I mean, you could make
• 2:06:48
  Speaker 1: the argument they didn't play that well in that game
• 2:06:51
  Speaker 1: against Navy as a favorite. They didn't cover. It was
• 2:06:54
  Speaker 1: still kind of a tough high-scoring game, though. So I
• 2:06:57
  Speaker 1: don't know. how they're going to react coming off that
• 2:07:00
  Speaker 1: game going into Tulane. I think what we can say, though,
• 2:07:04
  Speaker 1: is that Tulane is definitely in a letdown spot. Tulane
• 2:07:06
  Speaker 1: just had a big win over Memphis, and it was
• 2:07:08
  Speaker 1: a misleading result, as I pointed out yesterday. I think
• 2:07:12
  Speaker 1: whenever Memphis played last, Memphis kind of dominated this game.
• 2:07:15
  Speaker 1: They won the yardage battle by a lot. They won
• 2:07:19
  Speaker 1: it by whatever this is, over 160 yards. It's just
• 2:07:23
  Speaker 1: Memphis had a ton of mistakes in this game. They
• 2:07:25
  Speaker 1: had six turnovers. in this game, and that's how Tulane
• 2:07:29
  Speaker 1: was able to wind up winning this game. They did
• 2:07:31
  Speaker 1: have a pick six in the middle of the game,
• 2:07:33
  Speaker 1: so this game was not what it looked like. It
• 2:07:37
  Speaker 1: was a misleading final score. Memphis actually outplayed Tulane yardage-wise
• 2:07:42
  Speaker 1: and whatever. They just made a ton of mistakes, so
• 2:07:43
  Speaker 1: it was a big upset for Tulane, but also a
• 2:07:46
  Speaker 1: misleading upset, so I think the move is to fade
• 2:07:48
  Speaker 1: Tulane coming off of that. I would lean to UTSA
• 2:07:52
  Speaker 1: in this one, and UTSA, you could still make the
• 2:07:54
  Speaker 1: argument they didn't play that well as a Favorite in
• 2:07:57
  Speaker 1: their game, but the money yet again doesn't agree with
• 2:07:59
  Speaker 1: me here UTSA 62% of the tickets on them 93%
• 2:08:04
  Speaker 1: of the cash on Tulane it's a three point favorite
• 2:08:07
  Speaker 1: here with UTSA I'd still lean UTSA though based on
• 2:08:11
  Speaker 1: the situation but not a strong opinion from me on
• 2:08:14
  Speaker 1: the CWs we only have a couple of late games
• 2:08:17
  Speaker 1: here 10 o'clock p.m., really, really good game, actually, in
• 2:08:21
  Speaker 1: the Mountain West. Two teams that are contending to win
• 2:08:24
  Speaker 1: the Mountain West, North Dakota State and New Mexico. These
• 2:08:27
  Speaker 1: teams have both played well. Now, playing a later night
• 2:08:31
  Speaker 1: game here for North Dakota State may throw them off
• 2:08:33
  Speaker 1: a little bit, but... The good thing is they played
• 2:08:36
  Speaker 1: in high elevation already. So New Mexico, if you didn't know,
• 2:08:39
  Speaker 1: they play in high elevation. So sometimes that can kind
• 2:08:41
  Speaker 1: of throw teams off because it's thin air and whatever.
• 2:08:44
  Speaker 1: But North Dakota State already went into Air Force earlier
• 2:08:47
  Speaker 1: this year. And I thought that would be difficult for
• 2:08:49
  Speaker 1: them because they're an FBS team. They were an FCS team.
• 2:08:54
  Speaker 1: Now they're new to FBS. Excuse me. But maybe in
• 2:08:57
  Speaker 1: FCS they did play some high elevation teams and whatever.
• 2:09:00
  Speaker 1: But They really did not have that much of a
• 2:09:02
  Speaker 1: problem in Air Force. They were way ahead in that game,
• 2:09:05
  Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure, and Air Force almost made the comeback.
• 2:09:08
  Speaker 1: But the good thing for North Dakota State is, yeah,
• 2:09:10
  Speaker 1: they played in high elevation already this year. Last week,
• 2:09:13
  Speaker 1: they had a bounce back. We had a win on
• 2:09:15
  Speaker 1: the show with Nevada in that game, plus the 14.5.
• 2:09:18
  Speaker 1: They lost by 14, so yeah, they covered by the hook.
• 2:09:21
  Speaker 1: But it was kind of an ugly lower scoring game.
• 2:09:23
  Speaker 1: So Nevada was in that thing to cover pretty much
• 2:09:26
  Speaker 1: the whole time. And the reason I did it was
• 2:09:29
  Speaker 1: because I thought North Dakota State was in a bad spot.
• 2:09:31
  Speaker 1: They'd taken their first loss against one of the other
• 2:09:34
  Speaker 1: contenders in this conference, UNLV. That was a big game.
• 2:09:38
  Speaker 1: Then North Dakota State had this Nevada team that's not
• 2:09:41
  Speaker 1: having a good season. And up next they had this
• 2:09:43
  Speaker 1: big game against New Mexico. So I thought North Dakota
• 2:09:45
  Speaker 1: State was in a bad spot last week. A spot
• 2:09:47
  Speaker 1: where they were going to overlook their opponent. I think
• 2:09:49
  Speaker 1: they kind of did. This might be a spot now
• 2:09:52
  Speaker 1: where they play a little bit better, play refocused here
• 2:09:54
  Speaker 1: against New Mexico. And as far as New Mexico, they're
• 2:09:58
  Speaker 1: coming back from Hawaii. So their travel spot is pretty
• 2:10:01
  Speaker 1: weird here. They don't have a bye in here either.
• 2:10:04
  Speaker 1: They were in Hawaii last week and they beat Hawaii.
• 2:10:07
  Speaker 1: Hawaii really having a down season this year, though, so
• 2:10:10
  Speaker 1: not an impressive win, really. But New Mexico was at
• 2:10:12
  Speaker 1: least able to overcome how weird of a travel spot
• 2:10:16
  Speaker 1: that was and beat Hawaii. And now coming back from Hawaii,
• 2:10:19
  Speaker 1: weird trip here. North Dakota State coming off a kind
• 2:10:23
  Speaker 1: of ugly performance last week. I think I lean North
• 2:10:25
  Speaker 1: Dakota State in this one. The money's coming in on
• 2:10:29
  Speaker 1: New Mexico, though, but New Mexico did drop from a
• 2:10:31
  Speaker 1: five-point favorite to four, four and a half. I like
• 2:10:35
  Speaker 1: both these teams, man. I mean, it's a little bit
• 2:10:36
  Speaker 1: difficult to figure it out. 65% of the tickets and
• 2:10:39
  Speaker 1: 85% of the cash on New Mexico, but it's a low,
• 2:10:42
  Speaker 1: it's supposed to be a low scoring game. The total
• 2:10:44
  Speaker 1: is 40 and a half here. And I think that
• 2:10:46
  Speaker 1: might be what you're going to see here. I think
• 2:10:47
  Speaker 1: you might see these teams playing a bit physical and
• 2:10:51
  Speaker 1: running the football and the defenses will show up here
• 2:10:54
  Speaker 1: in this one. If you like the under though, The
• 2:10:58
  Speaker 1: 41 looks like it's pretty much gone. It went through
• 2:11:00
  Speaker 1: that key number of 41, and now it's 40.5. So
• 2:11:03
  Speaker 1: money has definitely come in on the under, but I
• 2:11:04
  Speaker 1: think the under does kind of help the underdog cover
• 2:11:08
  Speaker 1: in a game like this. Again, when it's a low
• 2:11:10
  Speaker 1: total like this, every point is worth a little bit more.
• 2:11:13
  Speaker 1: So I do... I think I prefer the North Dakota
• 2:11:15
  Speaker 1: State side there getting the points, getting the 4.5 or
• 2:11:18
  Speaker 1: 5 there. It's going to be an interesting game, though.
• 2:11:22
  Speaker 1: That's kind of one of those games that's under the radar.
• 2:11:24
  Speaker 1: If you like... You know, just like solid football, I think,
• 2:11:28
  Speaker 1: you know, defensive type of games. That might be the
• 2:11:31
  Speaker 1: game for you. And then the final game to conclude
• 2:11:34
  Speaker 1: the ESPN slate and conclude the entire board. The other
• 2:11:38
  Speaker 1: ranked matchup is a late, late game. Number 14, Houston
• 2:11:41
  Speaker 1: at number 10, Utah. First thing I will say is
• 2:11:45
  Speaker 1: that Houston going to high elevation like this Maybe a
• 2:11:48
  Speaker 1: little bit difficult, even though it does happen in this conference.
• 2:11:51
  Speaker 1: You got to play at BYU sometimes, whatever. But Houston
• 2:11:54
  Speaker 1: has not done that yet this year. Houston, they played
• 2:11:58
  Speaker 1: on the road, and they've been pretty good on the road.
• 2:11:59
  Speaker 1: They almost beat Texas Tech on the road. Coming off
• 2:12:03
  Speaker 1: of that game, difficult spot, and they still won at
• 2:12:05
  Speaker 1: Georgia Southern. We got a cover on the show. That
• 2:12:07
  Speaker 1: was a winning play for me on the show with
• 2:12:09
  Speaker 1: Georgia Southern in that game, by the way, because I
• 2:12:12
  Speaker 1: thought Houston was just going to be in a big
• 2:12:13
  Speaker 1: hangover after that Texas Tech game. Houston did also win
• 2:12:18
  Speaker 1: pretty easily at Kansas State. That's not that easy to
• 2:12:20
  Speaker 1: do either. So Houston's played well on the road. There's
• 2:12:23
  Speaker 1: no doubt about that. But now they're coming off a
• 2:12:25
  Speaker 1: pretty big game last week, knocking Oklahoma State from the rankings.
• 2:12:28
  Speaker 1: A tough, close game against Oklahoma State. Now they've got
• 2:12:31
  Speaker 1: to swing right back out on the road, playing high elevation.
• 2:12:34
  Speaker 1: And while, yeah, they're going to get up for this game,
• 2:12:36
  Speaker 1: I think you've got to maybe worry about the fatigue
• 2:12:39
  Speaker 1: factor a little bit for Houston, especially going into high
• 2:12:41
  Speaker 1: elevation here. And for Utah, I think the spot sets
• 2:12:44
  Speaker 1: up better for them because they just completely overlooked Colorado
• 2:12:48
  Speaker 1: last week, in my opinion. I think they were looking
• 2:12:50
  Speaker 1: ahead to Houston here. They went into Colorado. They almost
• 2:12:53
  Speaker 1: got caught. Utah was a big favorite in that one.
• 2:12:57
  Speaker 1: And almost lost the game. Well, didn't almost lose the game.
• 2:13:01
  Speaker 1: And then Colorado scored late to make it a little
• 2:13:02
  Speaker 1: more cosmetic. But still, Utah didn't play well in that game.
• 2:13:06
  Speaker 1: So I think coming off a game as a big
• 2:13:08
  Speaker 1: favorite where you didn't play well, I think usually you
• 2:13:11
  Speaker 1: bounce back and play better. So I lean Utah in
• 2:13:14
  Speaker 1: this game somewhat. But One other thing that I will
• 2:13:18
  Speaker 1: say is that Utah has not faced a difficult schedule
• 2:13:20
  Speaker 1: so far. So we still don't really know exactly what
• 2:13:23
  Speaker 1: this Utah team is now that Kyle Whittingham has left
• 2:13:27
  Speaker 1: and he's at Michigan now. Now Utah handed over the
• 2:13:30
  Speaker 1: reins to a guy who's been in waiting for years
• 2:13:33
  Speaker 1: and he's been at Utah for a long time. So
• 2:13:36
  Speaker 1: they knew that was going to happen and the coach
• 2:13:38
  Speaker 1: is just carrying on the same system and he already
• 2:13:40
  Speaker 1: knows the system and they already know him. So it
• 2:13:42
  Speaker 1: seems like Utah hasn't lost a beat yet. you know,
• 2:13:46
  Speaker 1: from that, and they've had a good season so far,
• 2:13:47
  Speaker 1: it's just they really have not totally been tested yet,
• 2:13:50
  Speaker 1: and Houston will be the best team they've faced so far,
• 2:13:53
  Speaker 1: whereas for Houston, Houston is battle-tested, as I mentioned already,
• 2:13:57
  Speaker 1: they played Texas Tech and Oklahoma State already, so even
• 2:14:01
  Speaker 1: though Oklahoma State probably a little bit over-ranked there, but still,
• 2:14:04
  Speaker 1: Houston's played two pretty difficult opponents here, and they're pretty
• 2:14:07
  Speaker 1: road-tested here so far, so Those are the good things
• 2:14:12
  Speaker 1: for Houston here. I think I still lean Utah slightly
• 2:14:14
  Speaker 1: in this one, though, off that ugly game last week.
• 2:14:17
  Speaker 1: But the money does not agree. 68% of the tickets
• 2:14:20
  Speaker 1: are on Utah. The public will be on Utah here,
• 2:14:23
  Speaker 1: especially because it's below a touchdown. And you know, I
• 2:14:25
  Speaker 1: warn you with these favorites that are below a touchdown,
• 2:14:29
  Speaker 1: when the oddsmakers have not even pushed that number, even
• 2:14:31
  Speaker 1: though the public is on that side, the oddsmakers have
• 2:14:34
  Speaker 1: not pushed that number to that key number seven. They're
• 2:14:37
  Speaker 1: telling you they're basically okay with taking all that action
• 2:14:41
  Speaker 1: on Utah and the money is keeping the line down too.
• 2:14:44
  Speaker 1: So the professional money does appear to be on Houston
• 2:14:46
  Speaker 1: to some extent, 52% of the cash on them. It's just,
• 2:14:51
  Speaker 1: I just happen to disagree. You know, I mean, I
• 2:14:53
  Speaker 1: like to agree with where the professional money is and
• 2:14:56
  Speaker 1: usually I'm going to, and especially in the games I
• 2:14:59
  Speaker 1: give out as plays, I'm almost definitely going to for
• 2:15:01
  Speaker 1: the most part. And by the way, my two plays
• 2:15:04
  Speaker 1: I gave out today, both did come in line. The
• 2:15:06
  Speaker 1: market came in line with where I was, even though
• 2:15:08
  Speaker 1: I mentioned earlier today, the market was not agreeing with
• 2:15:11
  Speaker 1: me on the football game, but it did when the
• 2:15:13
  Speaker 1: game went off. So, um, I stick, I, you know,
• 2:15:16
  Speaker 1: I mostly rely on my situational reads here, man. And
• 2:15:19
  Speaker 1: then the market is like, you know, is a check
• 2:15:22
  Speaker 1: for sure. Uh, but sometimes these markets can change. I mean,
• 2:15:25
  Speaker 1: they always change, but sometimes these percentages can completely change.
• 2:15:28
  Speaker 1: But I do, I do believe that the professional money
• 2:15:31
  Speaker 1: is on Houston in this one. I just happen to
• 2:15:33
  Speaker 1: disagree with it in this game, the rare spot where
• 2:15:36
  Speaker 1: I kind of disagree with it. Um, Utah, if you
• 2:15:39
  Speaker 1: want Utah, you can probably lay the 6.5 here. If
• 2:15:43
  Speaker 1: you want that, I would probably do it now, though,
• 2:15:46
  Speaker 1: because they are probably going to hit 7. And it
• 2:15:49
  Speaker 1: is a high total in that game, so that does
• 2:15:52
  Speaker 1: make it a little bit easier for the favorite to cover.
• 2:15:54
  Speaker 1: But the money does not agree with it, so just
• 2:15:56
  Speaker 1: keep that in mind. And that is finally it. That's
• 2:15:59
  Speaker 1: the show. Our plays for tomorrow are Michigan plus 7.5,
• 2:16:05
  Speaker 1: UCF plus 7.5, Vanderbilt plus 10.5, and Iowa State plus 11.
• 2:16:11
  Speaker 1: We got the ugly underdog card for tomorrow. I think
• 2:16:14
  Speaker 1: it's good spots for all of those. That's what I've
• 2:16:17
  Speaker 1: whittled the list down to here. Let's get some wins tomorrow.
• 2:16:21
  Speaker 1: I appreciated everybody for hanging out here, all the regulars,
• 2:16:26
  Speaker 1: the newcomers. Yeah, man, hopefully you enjoy all the info
• 2:16:29
  Speaker 1: I'm giving out here and Come back, come back. I'm
• 2:16:33
  Speaker 1: not going to get too mad at you unless you're really,
• 2:16:36
  Speaker 1: you know, if you're getting personal or whatever, I'm probably
• 2:16:39
  Speaker 1: going to get mad. Or if you, you know, if
• 2:16:42
  Speaker 1: you promote the Yankees, maybe then I'll get pissed. But
• 2:16:45
  Speaker 1: other than that, I don't know. Maybe I'll try to
• 2:16:47
  Speaker 1: get less pissed or something. But yeah, man, that's going
• 2:16:50
  Speaker 1: to do it. Learn to tote on Twitter, Instagram, TikTok,
• 2:16:54
  Speaker 1: I guess. But the TikTok is... sort of in this
• 2:16:57
  Speaker 1: review process right now because it's a new account and whatever.
• 2:17:00
  Speaker 1: We'll see. Like, subscribe to the channel here. Of course,
• 2:17:02
  Speaker 1: you'll get notified. I'm going to go live. I don't
• 2:17:05
  Speaker 1: sleep on these college football days, man, because I got
• 2:17:07
  Speaker 1: to get up and do the other part of the
• 2:17:10
  Speaker 1: show on Saturday morning because we got other sports in
• 2:17:13
  Speaker 1: action where we might be able to find some good plays.
• 2:17:15
  Speaker 1: So I'll be back in the morning, mostly talking about hockey.
• 2:17:19
  Speaker 1: But yeah, that'll be in the morning. Be on the
• 2:17:22
  Speaker 1: lookout for that. We'll do the final college football market
• 2:17:25
  Speaker 1: read as well. Um, yeah, listen on audio, Apple, Spotify, Spreaker,
• 2:17:30
  Speaker 1: that all helps out as well. But yeah, boost this
• 2:17:31
  Speaker 1: channel any way you can, you know, like subscribe, comment,
• 2:17:35
  Speaker 1: all that stuff covered in you. Cause my ukulele cover
• 2:17:38
  Speaker 1: channel on YouTube. So you can check that out. Um,
• 2:17:41
  Speaker 1: my remedial ukulele skills. I could sing. All right. Um,
• 2:17:44
  Speaker 1: so at least there's that Patreon, even though you wouldn't
• 2:17:47
  Speaker 1: think that with the way my voice sounds, but yeah. Um, Patreon,
• 2:17:52
  Speaker 1: I'm choking myself, yeah, where was I going with that,
• 2:17:56
  Speaker 1: oh yeah, patreon.com slash learn to tote, if you want
• 2:17:59
  Speaker 1: to get some extra uke stuff, I should figure out
• 2:18:01
  Speaker 1: some more Patreon content, as I keep saying, but It
• 2:18:04
  Speaker 1: is what it is right now. Losercast. Learn to tone.
• 2:18:08
  Speaker 1: Losercast every Tuesday night as well. That's going to do it. Thanks, everybody.
• 2:18:14
  Speaker 1: Peace for now.
• 2:18:18
  Speaker 3: If the dark starts talking, hand me the phone. Let
• 2:18:23
  Speaker 3: somebody answer. Let somebody know. You do not have to
• 2:18:30
  Speaker 3: lose this round alone. Hold on, not tonight, not now
• 2:18:43
  Speaker 3: Hold on, hold on Let me pull you out That
• 2:18:52
  Speaker 3: bad luck bites hard But it don't get the crown
• 2:19:00
  Speaker 3: Hold on, hold.
• 2:19:03
  Speaker 5: On Stay with me now Hold on, hold
• 2:19:12
  Speaker 2: On You're still here now guitar solo