Latest / Simply Bitcoin / Did We FINALLY FIND The truth About WHY Bitcoin is STUCK at $90k?! | EP 1405

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Did We FINALLY FIND The truth About WHY Bitcoin is STUCK at $90k?! | EP 1405 · Simply Bitcoin

• 0:01
  So gold, silver and even the stock market is going parabolic
• 0:06
  right now, setting new all time highs on Christmas Eve.
• 0:10
  But Bitcoin, well it's still stuck under $90,000.
• 0:15
  So today we're going to be looking at why BlackRock might
• 0:19
  have changed Bitcoins market cycle, as well as exploring a
• 0:23
  new thesis or a new theory that might help us explain what is
• 0:29
  going on with Bitcoin and what 2026 might bring for us.
• 0:34
  Because it's absolutely undeniable Bitcoin is the only
• 0:38
  asset right now not rallying. And I think the best place to
• 0:43
  start today's show, Nico is looking at something called the
• 0:46
  PMI cycle. So this is.
• 0:49
  Why is a little? Bit of a traditional finance
• 0:53
  concept, but essentially the chart we're going to be breaking
• 0:56
  down, it shows us what the economy is doing.
• 1:00
  And what's really interesting is we can see when this green line
• 1:04
  is expanding and when it's going up and it's rising above this
• 1:09
  very important fifty level. That's the white dotted line in
• 1:14
  the middle of this chart. This is coincided with Bitcoin
• 1:19
  bull runs. But what's really interesting
• 1:21
  about this metric today is it showed that the traditional
• 1:25
  economy has essentially been in a a contraction for the past
• 1:31
  three years. And this is I think a cycle that
• 1:35
  not a lot of people are looking at in the space.
• 1:38
  Everybody's looking at the four year cycle.
• 1:41
  They're reading the tea leaf astrologies.
• 1:43
  A lot of people are kind of looking around for explanations
• 1:47
  as to what's going on with the Bitcoin price.
• 1:49
  So Nico, I think I'd love your thoughts.
• 1:51
  Is it the four year cycle? Is it the business cycle?
• 1:55
  Is it the halving? What is more important for
• 1:57
  Bitcoin? Man, I think Bitcoin is a
• 2:00
  liquidity thermometer, Easy money it goes up, tight money it
• 2:05
  goes down. And that last chart that you
• 2:07
  pulled up, Luke was fastening because it really like if you
• 2:11
  could zoom in a little bit and it it, it kind of explains
• 2:15
  Bitcoin's behavior. And Bitcoin has really never
• 2:18
  existed in this tight money environment that we've been in
• 2:24
  for the last four years or so. And it kind of explains the
• 2:27
  price action. Like we never had this euphoric
• 2:30
  blow off top. We never had this parabola.
• 2:33
  It never existed this cycle. All that's happened is this like
• 2:37
  kind of slow crawl up. And if you're taking a look at
• 2:41
  the business cycle, right, and you have it pulled up and you're
• 2:44
  taking a look at the Bitcoin price, right, obviously there's
• 2:48
  a very, very close correlation there.
• 2:51
  And by the way, you're not the first person who's told me this
• 2:54
  either, Luke, that this is the, the theory for I know that you
• 2:58
  had a, a video lined up with Raul Paul.
• 3:01
  There's also other people that have been talking about this as
• 3:04
  well. And then they've been making the
• 3:05
  case that look, the Bitcoin having actually never really
• 3:09
  played a part. It all had to do with the
• 3:11
  business cycle. And the reality is that this
• 3:14
  entire year, I last yesterday, I was making the case that the Fed
• 3:19
  has been acting politically. They've been trying to sabotage
• 3:22
  the Trump administration with these, like, hawkish policies.
• 3:26
  Yeah, we've been in, we haven't been in a QE environment.
• 3:31
  That changed, by the way, December 1st.
• 3:33
  And This is why I said yesterday, I'm like, look, I'm
• 3:36
  potentially bullish heading into 2026 because there's going to be
• 3:40
  a change in monetary policy. Not only is there going to be a
• 3:43
  change in monetary policy, there's going to be a new head
• 3:46
  of the Federal Reserve that's going to want to accommodate
• 3:50
  Trump's policies, which the TLDR what that means is money go Burr
• 3:56
  and when money printer goes Burr with Bitcoin, that tends to mean
• 4:00
  number goes up, Luke. Yeah, absolutely.
• 4:04
  It's a great point. You mentioned it, Trump, we've
• 4:06
  got a very, very, very interesting 2026 lined up.
• 4:10
  We've got Trump talking about 2026 stimi checks.
• 4:14
  I think something we haven't talked about from this thread
• 4:18
  yet that we want to break down for you guys today is the
• 4:22
  business cycle. Because five years so see rhino
• 4:45
  bits wrinkle. This may be high rates
• 4:53
  maturities. So this has changed five years.
• 4:59
  So cool actually that four years and A5 and I just think it kind
• 5:09
  of all checks out. We've got a new Federal Reserve
• 5:12
  chair coming in in the next few months.
• 5:16
  We've got QT, as you said, December 1st and now we
• 5:22
  potentially have the money printers coming.
• 5:23
  What do you think, Nika? Yeah, 100%.
• 5:26
  I mean, again, I kept telling you guys this yesterday.
• 5:29
  Look, the cycle is intact until it's not.
• 5:32
  The reality is that Bitcoin peaked where it normally peaks a
• 5:36
  certain amount of days after the halving.
• 5:39
  It seems like that is intact. We peaked at $126,000 in
• 5:43
  October. But you know, the meme is coming
• 5:46
  back. You know the meme that we've
• 5:48
  heard every single other Bitcoin market this time is different
• 5:53
  and this time actually could be different for the reasons that
• 5:57
  Luke is is laying out that Bitcoin could have potentially
• 6:00
  been following the business cycle this entire time.
• 6:03
  Like I can't think of a reason as to like if you if you are to
• 6:09
  think about this logically, Luke, like think about this for
• 6:12
  a second. This is going to be like the
• 6:14
  first Christmas since forever, right?
• 6:18
  Since since the inception of Bitcoin, where your great uncle
• 6:22
  or your grandfather is going to look at you across the table and
• 6:25
  it's going to start laughing in your face because the S&P Gold
• 6:29
  and silver outperformed Bitcoin in 2025.
• 6:33
  That's a reality. So heading into 2026 and again,
• 6:37
  we don't have that many days left until the end of the year.
• 6:41
  Heading into 2026, do we see this massive recovery happening
• 6:46
  by Bitcoin coin? Like do we see Bitcoin heading
• 6:49
  to back to $150,000? I, I just don't see that
• 6:53
  happening. I, I, I don't see that as, as a,
• 6:56
  as a possibility like it's, it could happen.
• 6:59
  I just don't see it happening. Therefore, Bitcoin had a very
• 7:02
  unproductive year. It's down 6 to 8% this year,
• 7:06
  year to date. That's not good.
• 7:08
  And simultaneously it's getting outperformed by a piece of
• 7:12
  metal, right? That's not good at all, right?
• 7:15
  And it's getting outperformed by the S&P 500.
• 7:18
  So the whole value proposition of Bitcoin is being called into
• 7:22
  question. Now, with all of that being
• 7:26
  said, are you trying to make the case that heading into 2026
• 7:31
  we're going to have another down year?
• 7:33
  That's never happened before in Bitcoin's history.
• 7:36
  You guys know the meme, 3 green, one red.
• 7:39
  Right now it's 2 green, one red. And 2026 is yet to be
• 7:45
  determined. So, you know, we're laying out
• 7:47
  the case here. It looks like what has actually
• 7:51
  been holding Bitcoin back is the general monetary policy.
• 7:55
  But as we head into 2026 six and the Republicans want to keep the
• 7:59
  house and you have a new Fed chair that is going to want to
• 8:03
  accommodate Trump's policies, it would make a whole lot of sense
• 8:07
  for, you know, Bitcoin to pump. Not to mention the fact that the
• 8:11
  Trump the Trump family owns the 6th largest Bitcoin treasury
• 8:15
  company, not to mention that the Trump family again benefits
• 8:19
  tremendously from Bitcoin going up.
• 8:21
  They have a bunch of bags. They have huge Bitcoin bags,
• 8:25
  right? So again, it doesn't makes sense
• 8:28
  that the first Bitcoin president that we've ever had, the day
• 8:31
  that he was inaugurated, the Bitcoin price was 109,000.
• 8:35
  Fast forward one year later into his administration and the price
• 8:40
  is down at $87,000. Like that doesn't make sense at
• 8:44
  all. And are you trying to tell me
• 8:45
  that two years into his presidency, we're going to be at
• 8:48
  the end of 2026 and the price is going to be lower?
• 8:51
  That doesn't make any sense whatsoever.
• 8:54
  And if it does make sense, then bring back Joe Biden, bring back
• 8:59
  Kamala Harris, because at least during Operation Choke Point
• 9:02
  2.0, we were ripping at least every single year.
• 9:06
  The price of Bitcoin was higher. You know, we have a pro Bitcoin
• 9:09
  president and guess what? The price of Bitcoin is lower.
• 9:13
  So again, it would not make sense to me.
• 9:16
  I was an outside observer looking into 2026 and thinking,
• 9:20
  oh, wow, you know, we're just going to have another poor
• 9:23
  performance. That wouldn't make sense to me
• 9:25
  whatsoever. The math ain't Mathen right and
• 9:28
  I think that's the case that Luke is making right pulling up
• 9:32
  the these business cycle charts that he's pulling up.
• 9:36
  Luke, this is a this is a great chart look at look at the poor.
• 9:39
  Poor might as well have bought in the S&P 500.
• 9:44
  Wrecked Bitcoins been absolutely wrecked and everybody's kind of
• 9:47
  searching and they're scrambling for explanations as to why we
• 9:52
  are seeing Bitcoin decoupled from the markets, but decoupled
• 9:56
  to the downside. I think that's the thing that a
• 9:58
  lot of people are being confused about.
• 10:00
  We've all been waiting for Bitcoin to decouple to the
• 10:02
  upside, and I still think that is going to happen.
• 10:05
  I still think like from a year from now, maybe 2 years from
• 10:09
  now, Bitcoin is going to be much higher than it is today.
• 10:12
  And I still expected to surprise most people to the upside.
• 10:16
  But the next three months, I have no idea what is going to
• 10:19
  happen. I, I, the markets kind of look
• 10:21
  like they're on an edge. But something interesting, Nico,
• 10:24
  that I want to show the guys is I think even if you are
• 10:29
  convinced right now that Bitcoin is following the traditional
• 10:34
  four year cycle, let's assume you know, the argument that Ben
• 10:38
  Cohen makes from into the crypto verse is we've topped, we're
• 10:42
  headed for 12 months of a bear. Even if you believe that, I
• 10:46
  would encourage you to just be prepared for something different
• 10:51
  to happen. As we've said, that's the most
• 10:55
  dangerous words in investing. This time is different.
• 10:58
  But we do know I love this chance, my favorite.
• 11:01
  It shows us that Bitcoin's best 10 days each year outperform the
• 11:07
  other 355 days combined. So what does that mean?
• 11:12
  That means that Bitcoin surprises people.
• 11:15
  And when it does surprise people, it does so really
• 11:19
  quickly in a way that catches everybody off guard.
• 11:22
  So that's what those big purple bars are measuring.
• 11:25
  It's showing us that each year bitcoins best 10 days in the
• 11:29
  purple is way better than the rest of the year combined.
• 11:33
  So this shows us that the majority of Bitcoins gains come
• 11:36
  from only 10 days. And this is what catches most
• 11:40
  people offside. Bitcoin is not the stock market.
• 11:44
  So many people are treating Bitcoin as a swing trade.
• 11:47
  They're saying, OK, we're down more than 20%, we're in a bear
• 11:51
  market. I might look at Bitcoin in a
• 11:52
  year from now. And that kind of ideology and
• 11:56
  just blind confidence I think is going to catch a lot of people
• 12:00
  with their pants around their ankles.
• 12:02
  And I think a lot of these old models and old sacred cows,
• 12:06
  they're going to continue to get destroyed.
• 12:08
  Like we kind of very briefly alluded to in the introduction,
• 12:13
  I think BlackRock launching the Bitcoin ETFs, it's changed a lot
• 12:17
  of things already. We know that Bitcoin hit a new
• 12:21
  all time high before the halving in 2024.
• 12:25
  We've never seen that before. And the same as the bottom we
• 12:28
  set in that 2022 bear market, that was $15,000.
• 12:32
  That was actually below our previous all time high of
• 12:38
  $20,000 in 2017. So I just think we're going to
• 12:41
  continue to see more and more of these sacred cows in the Bitcoin
• 12:45
  space get wrecked and get destroyed.
• 12:48
  And I just think not a lot of people are appreciating how
• 12:51
  volatile Bitcoin can be in the short term.
• 12:54
  I mean, that's another narrative we hear, Nico, the institutions
• 12:57
  are here. That means volatility is going
• 12:59
  to continue to get smaller and more compressed.
• 13:03
  Again, it is clear that volatility has gotten more and
• 13:08
  more compressed over the past six to seven.
• 13:11
  That is true. But I'm just not so sure that
• 13:14
  the trend is going to be our friend forever, and I still
• 13:17
  think we're going to see a lot of upside surprises.
• 13:21
  Yeah, let's talk about those sacred cows because I think you
• 13:23
  hit the nail on the head, Luke, right.
• 13:25
  Every single metric, by the way, that would indicate that we've
• 13:30
  reached a cycle peak. Every single one of them did not
• 13:35
  go off this year, right. This was the first halving cycle
• 13:39
  that Bitcoin did not make an that that Bitcoin made an all
• 13:42
  time high before the halving. This is the first cycle that
• 13:46
  Bitcoin has peaked potentially. Luke, you're mentioning Ben
• 13:49
  Cohen earlier that Bitcoin has peaked on apathy.
• 13:53
  We never had a euphoria phase. Could you imagine that?
• 13:56
  Like if I told you back in 2021, you know, we had a euphoria
• 14:00
  phase. It was cut short a little bit
• 14:02
  because of the China mining ban, you know, all that, all that
• 14:05
  stuff. But we still had that euphoric
• 14:07
  run up, right? You know, 2017 who were met.
• 14:11
  That was the euphoria of the euphoria, right?
• 14:15
  If you told me back in 2021, Nico, you're going to wait four
• 14:19
  more years and not only you not going to get a euphoria phase,
• 14:23
  you're going to get blue balled. I would have quit.
• 14:25
  I would have been like, you know what, I'm I'm going to go find a
• 14:28
  career in something else, right. So we've never we didn't have
• 14:31
  the blow off top right. And as Luke was pointing out
• 14:34
  with the, with the, with the charts earlier on, it could be
• 14:38
  because of the fact that, you know what Bitcoin never really
• 14:43
  followed the, the, the, the halving was never really the
• 14:48
  catalyst for Bitcoins parabolic rallies.
• 14:52
  It was always the liquidity cycle.
• 14:55
  It was always the business cycle, right?
• 14:57
  And again, when you talk about these sacred cows, there's
• 15:00
  entire channels. Luke, you and I know this very,
• 15:03
  very well, right? There's entire channels and you
• 15:06
  just saw everything. Again, a lot of these people are
• 15:08
  my friends. I'm not naming any names.
• 15:10
  I was, I'm guilty of this myself.
• 15:12
  I was posting pictures of Donald Trump saying 500K in January of
• 15:16
  2025, 5 right? But all of these channels,
• 15:19
  basically the entire community had this consensus that we were
• 15:23
  going to have this amazing Q3 and Q4 of 2025.
• 15:30
  Ladies and gentlemen, this is the worst Q3 and Q4, the year
• 15:36
  after the halving in Bitcoin's history.
• 15:39
  We are down 22% in these two quarters.
• 15:44
  That's never happened before. You guys have to understand
• 15:48
  that, right? So we are already in uncharted
• 15:51
  territory looking back in the past, which is human nature.
• 15:54
  You want to do this, you want to look back in the past and you
• 15:57
  want, it's like almost as if you want to grab onto something so
• 16:00
  that you have certainty heading into the future.
• 16:04
  That certainty has been ripped away from us.
• 16:07
  Nobody knows. Luke was mentioning it earlier.
• 16:10
  We have no idea what's going to happen in the next three months.
• 16:13
  Anyone who tells you differently is absolutely lying to you.
• 16:17
  Let think about all the price predictions.
• 16:20
  Not even not from just us Youtubers or not from
• 16:23
  influencers on X, but from these large banks, these large
• 16:27
  institutions. I'm not going to name any games,
• 16:30
  but the the heads of treasury companies and they were all
• 16:34
  calling for 150 thousand $200,000 Bitcoin.
• 16:38
  And all those predictions just got lower and lower and lower as
• 16:42
  we got closer and closer to the end of the year.
• 16:45
  So, you know, Speaking of sacred cows, dude, those sacred cows
• 16:49
  got, you know, I can't even say that on YouTube, but they got
• 16:52
  kicked out, bro. Those sacred cows ain't sacred
• 16:56
  anymore, man. They they they don't even make
• 16:58
  sense to call I'm sacred because we're in uncharted territory.
• 17:02
  Ladies and gentlemen, this is what I want you guys to
• 17:04
  understand It could be because again the introduction of the
• 17:08
  ETFs and Wall Street is playing a lot of games that also kind of
• 17:12
  doesn't make sense. The majority of Bitcoin is still
• 17:15
  held by Bitcoin Ogs. It's still held by individuals.
• 17:19
  So how many games can Wall Street really play right?
• 17:23
  So again, this is uncharted territory.
• 17:26
  We don't know what's going to happen.
• 17:28
  But as I was telling you guys yesterday, and this is the first
• 17:31
  time I'm telling you, Luke, I love this uncertainty.
• 17:35
  This reminds me of the early days.
• 17:37
  This reminds me of 2017, bro. This is fantastic.
• 17:41
  Back then, you had no idea whether Bitcoin was going to
• 17:45
  succeed or not. You had no effing clue.
• 17:48
  You were like, OK, what are the Prince of?
• 17:50
  What are the characteristics of Bitcoin that makes it better
• 17:53
  money? Well, it's absolutely scarce,
• 17:56
  it's uncensorable, it's completely decentralized.
• 17:59
  You can send it anywhere around the world for pennies on the
• 18:02
  dollar. And people for some reason want
• 18:05
  to buy a really heavy metal, right Instead, that's what they
• 18:09
  want to buy instead of Bitcoin. So you can't really explain
• 18:12
  what's happening right now, like the fact that the S&P silver and
• 18:17
  gold are mooning while while all of us are just sitting on our
• 18:21
  backs like that doesn't feel very nice, right?
• 18:24
  So again, thinking that 20, 26 is going to play out like every
• 18:29
  other year, even though 2025 completely played out
• 18:33
  differently than every other, you know, example before it, I
• 18:37
  think is a pretty naive take to have.
• 18:39
  So I don't know whether that means we dump even harder.
• 18:42
  I don't know if that means whether we go sideways.
• 18:45
  I don't know if that means whether we're just going to go
• 18:47
  to the moon. But I'll tell you what, what is
• 18:50
  the consensus right now? The consensus right now is fear.
• 18:53
  The consensus right now is uncertainty, right?
• 18:57
  So what would be the opposite of what everyone is thinking is
• 19:00
  going to happen in 2026? You know what to be the opposite
• 19:04
  would be effing rocket ship. We go to the moon.
• 19:07
  Even telling you guys imagine 200K in 2026.
• 19:12
  You guys in the chat say no, that's opium.
• 19:14
  Get the hell, get the get the hell out of here.
• 19:16
  You're lying to me. You would have said the same
• 19:18
  thing if I told you in the beginning of the year that the
• 19:21
  price of Bitcoin was going to be at 87,000 in December.
• 19:25
  You would have laughed me out of the room.
• 19:26
  You would have told me to go F yourself in January of 2017 when
• 19:31
  Bitcoin was at $1000. If I told you that at December
• 19:35
  of that of 2017 Bitcoin was going to end up at 20 K, you
• 19:38
  would have laughed me out of the room.
• 19:39
  You just said no, get out of here.
• 19:41
  Uncertainty is opportunity and this is where we're at right
• 19:45
  now. No one knows what's happening.
• 19:47
  We're in complete uncharted territory.
• 19:50
  And that is an opportunity for every single Bitcoin believer
• 19:54
  because you understand what the characteristics of Bitcoin are
• 19:57
  and you understand what the principles of Bitcoin are.
• 20:00
  Luke. Yeah, couldn't agree more.
• 20:02
  I think you mentioned the shiny rock, gold and silver right now
• 20:06
  mooning while bitcoins just acting like a stable coin.
• 20:09
  What's really interesting about gold's rally, we can see $18
• 20:14
  trillion is how much gold's market cap has increased since
• 20:19
  only April 2025. Now we know gold and silver kind
• 20:26
  of sniffs out the money printing before any other asset.
• 20:31
  We've seen. We've showed you guys 100 charts
• 20:34
  that gold moves first, then capital rotates out of boomer
• 20:40
  digital gold and it moves into, well, digital gold moves into
• 20:44
  Bitcoin. So what's really interesting is
• 20:46
  bitcoins, what? It's a $2 trillion asset class
• 20:50
  today. If like 10% of the money that's
• 20:55
  gone into gold wants to go into Bitcoin, that's already the size
• 20:58
  of bitcoins market cap. So if gold's market cap's gone
• 21:02
  up by 20 trillion just since April, imagine if just 5
• 21:07
  trillion wants to flow into Bitcoin.
• 21:10
  Imagine if just two trillion wants to flow into Bitcoin.
• 21:13
  I think this is the way kind of things can they can accelerate
• 21:17
  really quickly. Most people don't know that
• 21:20
  Bitcoin actually has a multiplier effect.
• 21:23
  So that means for every $1.00 that wants to flow into Bitcoin,
• 21:27
  it pushes bitcoins market cap up by somewhere around 6X today in
• 21:31
  2025. So if you've got 2 trillion
• 21:34
  wanting to flow into Bitcoin, which again I think is
• 21:37
  conservative, you that could easily add 12 trillion to
• 21:41
  bitcoins market cap. And then all of a sudden
• 21:43
  bitcoins, a giant bitcoins 1415 trillion dollars, it's
• 21:47
  approaching $1,000,000 per Bitcoin.
• 21:50
  And again, those are just conservative numbers.
• 21:53
  If $18 trillion was adding to added to gold's market cap in
• 21:57
  the past six months, I don't think it's outrageous to say
• 22:00
  that maybe just $2 trillion of that cap might want to buy the
• 22:04
  better store value. And that's of course Bitcoin.
• 22:07
  We all agree on that. We all know that in 10 years
• 22:10
  Bitcoins probably going to be way more valuable than gold and
• 22:13
  silver, some pet rocks that we've used as money for the past
• 22:16
  5000 years. And I just think anybody trying
• 22:19
  to make the case that, hey, we're headed for a two year bear
• 22:22
  market. I'm not saying it's impossible.
• 22:25
  I just think it's unlikely considering the environment that
• 22:28
  we keep talking about that is going to unfold in 2026.
• 22:32
  We've got the liquidity cycle turning.
• 22:34
  Something else we haven't showed you yet is this chart looking at
• 22:37
  bitcoins price correlated to the year on year growth of the money
• 22:43
  supply. So in blue this is measuring
• 22:46
  what liquidity is doing on a year on year basis.
• 22:50
  And we can see what's really interesting is at the end of
• 22:54
  these four year liquidity cycles, you see a massive
• 22:58
  expansion of the blue line that's showing us that liquidity
• 23:02
  on a year on year basis is going parabolic.
• 23:04
  We saw this in 2017, the year on year money supply growth, it was
• 23:09
  about 14% in late 2017. We saw 21% growth in the money
• 23:18
  supply in 2021 and right now we're at about 9%.
• 23:26
  So again, if this liquidity cycle does lengthen, if we do
• 23:31
  get these $2000 stimi checks from Trump in 2026, if we get a
• 23:37
  pro liquidity Fed chair and we get big RJ Powell booted out of
• 23:42
  the Federal Reserve, If we do start to see more and more of
• 23:48
  what not QE, that's what they're calling the most recent
• 23:52
  purchases of U.S. Treasury bonds.
• 23:56
  We also saw record U.S. Treasury bond buybacks in
• 24:00
  Q42025. If we just see a continuation of
• 24:04
  that trend, we should see a massive expansion of that blue
• 24:09
  line. That's the year on year growth
• 24:11
  of the money supply. We got midterms coming and what
• 24:14
  the Hell's Bitcoin going to do? We, we saw what it did in 2017
• 24:17
  and 2021. It went parabolic.
• 24:19
  I, I just think right now, like you said, Nico, consensus, like
• 24:24
  the mainstream opinion in Bitcoin right now is we're
• 24:27
  definitely headed for a bear market in 2026.
• 24:30
  I'm not saying it's impossible, but if you look at this thing
• 24:33
  fundamentally, we've got a lot of tailwinds that I think are
• 24:36
  just getting ignored. Yeah, 100%.
• 24:38
  Dude, I think you hit the nail on the head, man.
• 24:40
  It's again like it's it what is what is what is the what is the
• 24:48
  the the non consensus view right now.
• 24:52
  I think that that is really what I'm focusing on right now.
• 24:55
  And and just to add a little bit of opium on to this.
• 24:59
  The whole, you know, dream of bitcoiners is for Bitcoin to
• 25:04
  catch up the market to catch the market cap of gold.
• 25:08
  Well, ladies and gentlemen, the market cap of gold just got so
• 25:12
  much effing higher. I'm going to ChatGPT this in the
• 25:15
  back. Because that 30 trillion.
• 25:19
  So like, So what? What would it so like that's
• 25:22
  more than a 10X bro. That's like a 15X right now for
• 25:26
  Bitcoin to catch. And again, I'm doing this off
• 25:29
  the top of my head. Please correct me in the chat
• 25:31
  guys if I'm wrong, but for Bitcoin to catch or or opt if
• 25:36
  you're if you're there, just drop it in the chat please for.
• 25:40
  Going Bitcoin would have to hit 1.5 million one.
• 25:44
  Point so so basically I have 15X so $1.5 million per coin for
• 25:51
  Bitcoin to reach the market cap of gold and the basic theory
• 25:55
  right now the basis the basis of the theory of Bitcoin is that
• 26:00
  it's superior to gold. I I truly believe that it has
• 26:04
  better has superior characteristics.
• 26:06
  It's it's definitely a lot more scarce.
• 26:10
  There's asteroids right now floating out in space with tons
• 26:14
  and tons and tons of gold. There's no asteroids in space
• 26:17
  that have Bitcoin in them right. So Bitcoin is is absolutely
• 26:21
  scarce. Gold is not you can't send gold
• 26:25
  overseas unless you like pay for the transportation, pay for the
• 26:29
  security. Even then they could like
• 26:31
  replace the gold. They can like wrap the gold like
• 26:35
  they can have like a a like a a tungsten bar that's like wrapped
• 26:39
  with gold like again, like you, you see, you guys have seen all
• 26:42
  the movies of like the gold heists, right like all these
• 26:45
  like sophisticated heists for gold like you need banks, you
• 26:48
  need security guards like it's extremely heavy like it's a
• 26:52
  whole shebang, right. It's not easy to send gold
• 26:55
  right. It's very easy to send Bitcoin.
• 26:58
  So if Bitcoin is more scarce, it's easier to send it's easier
• 27:02
  to transport, it's easier to custody.
• 27:05
  It's a superior asset. That's it's a monetary black
• 27:09
  hole. That's why I think you've seen
• 27:11
  the performance that you've seen in Bitcoin over this over the
• 27:14
  last decade. Or so right.
• 27:16
  So if that's the base case, right, If that's the base case,
• 27:20
  if we're just like, OK, Nico, you know what, forget about the
• 27:24
  $200 trillion that, you know, Bitcoin could eventually hit one
• 27:28
  day and blah, blah, blah, forget about that.
• 27:30
  Just the base case of Bitcoin reaching the market cap of gold.
• 27:34
  That's a 15X, ladies and gentlemen, from right here,
• 27:38
  right? No more than a 15X because we're
• 27:40
  at $87,000, right? So again, that's an incredible
• 27:45
  return and the question is do you think that that's possible
• 27:50
  in the next 10 years or so? My answer is absolutely.
• 27:54
  I would be surprised. I would go even out on a limb
• 27:58
  and say that Bitcoin has failed if it doesn't reach the market
• 28:02
  cap of gold. Bitcoin is a failure if it
• 28:06
  doesn't reach the market cap of gold.
• 28:08
  That is my base expectation and the whole industry, by the way,
• 28:11
  is riding on that Strategies. Whole business model would fail.
• 28:16
  Simply Bitcoin would fail. Any Bitcoin exchange, their
• 28:20
  whole business models, they would fail if at least Bitcoin
• 28:24
  didn't reach the market cap of gold, because that is the base
• 28:28
  case. The base case is that Bitcoin is
• 28:31
  superior to gold. We've laid out why that is and
• 28:35
  where is the opportunity if gold is mooning, It used to be a 10X,
• 28:39
  ladies and gentlemen, for Bitcoin to catch up with gold.
• 28:41
  It used to be just a 10X. Right now it's a 15X.
• 28:46
  That's $1.5 million per Bitcoin. And do I think that could happen
• 28:51
  in the next decade? I think so.
• 28:53
  Do I think that will happen eventually?
• 28:56
  Yes. But again, that's the risk that
• 28:58
  you're willing to take. That is the uncertainty.
• 29:01
  That is the price that you're paying, right?
• 29:03
  If it was a sure thing, it would already be at $1.5 million.
• 29:07
  If the consensus agreed with you, it would already be at $1.5
• 29:12
  million per coin. And ultimately market, the
• 29:15
  market price is the truth. It is the biggest indicator of
• 29:19
  the truth, right. So again, this is the
• 29:22
  opportunity for you guys. It's an asymmetric opportunity.
• 29:25
  Is it the same opportunity that it was in 2017 or 2021 when
• 29:31
  Bitcoin was much lower? Perhaps not.
• 29:33
  But back then there was much more uncertainty than there is
• 29:37
  now. You didn't have the president of
• 29:39
  the United States going out on Twitter and fat fingering, hey,
• 29:43
  we want to make the US the Bitcoin capital of the world.
• 29:46
  Oh, and we have an executive order launching A strategic
• 29:49
  Bitcoin reserve. None of that was true back then,
• 29:52
  right? So there was a lot more
• 29:53
  uncertainty compared to where it is now.
• 29:56
  So I want to get your thoughts on that, Luke, because again,
• 29:59
  bro, like that's the base case, bro.
• 30:03
  If, if Bitcoin doesn't reach the market cap of gold, it's failed.
• 30:07
  Do you, do you agree with that? Do you disagree?
• 30:09
  Oh, I absolutely agree. I've kicked the hornet's nest on
• 30:13
  Twitter more recently, making even more Wilder claims than
• 30:18
  that. My like, if, like for me, I, I
• 30:21
  actually think Bitcoin fails if it follows a power law.
• 30:24
  And again, I get it, people are going to be, you know, typing,
• 30:27
  hating the comments and they're probably going to leave this
• 30:29
  video. But I'd encourage anybody who
• 30:31
  hears that and they get a visceral reaction to just walk
• 30:34
  through the numbers for a moment.
• 30:36
  Like I fundamentally believe that in 20-40, if Bitcoin's
• 30:39
  still following the power law, it's at $4 million a coin and
• 30:42
  it's an $84 trillion market cap. I think that's failed because if
• 30:47
  you actually think about it, global wealth today is 900
• 30:49
  trillion. It should expand if it's
• 30:52
  following the past couple of decades of data.
• 30:55
  Global wealth might be somewhere around 3000 trillion.
• 30:58
  So expect about a 3X in the next 20 odd years.
• 31:03
  OK, so if the global wealth is at 3000 trillion in 2040, and if
• 31:09
  bitcoins $4 million a coin, I get it, it's a big number, but
• 31:12
  it that means it would be an $84 trillion market cap asset.
• 31:18
  That means that Bitcoin would still only be worth about 2% of
• 31:24
  global wealth IN204032 years after it was created.
• 31:30
  So I'm going to go a step further, Nico.
• 31:32
  I, I think if bitcoins digital gold, it's failed.
• 31:35
  I think if Bitcoin follows the power law, it's failed.
• 31:38
  Because imagine the world in 2040, bitcoins $84 trillion of
• 31:42
  market cap, it's $4 million a coin.
• 31:45
  That means we would still have hundreds of trillions of dollars
• 31:48
  of Fiat money. We'd still have government bonds
• 31:53
  their their market cap being hundreds of trillions of
• 31:56
  dollars. Do we really think 32 years
• 31:59
  after Bitcoin was created, the Fiat money market is still going
• 32:03
  to be 2 * 3 * 4 times more valuable than Bitcoin?
• 32:08
  Again, I'm bearish on humanity. I'm bearish on the masses.
• 32:12
  I haven't touched Australia in four years because I am so
• 32:16
  bearish on the everyday person. But we don't need the everyday
• 32:20
  person for Bitcoin to break all of these models, the digital
• 32:24
  gold model, the power law model, if we just continue to see ETFs,
• 32:29
  black rocks, sovereign nations, Michael Saylors continue to do
• 32:35
  what they've done over the past two to three years.
• 32:37
  I think we won't be having this conversation about digital gold
• 32:41
  by 20-30. I think it's going to be all
• 32:43
  over Bitcoins probably going to be breaking all of these models
• 32:46
  to the upside. There's going to be no Bitcoin
• 32:48
  left on exchanges. And I think we would all regret
• 32:52
  not buying more Bitcoin today at $87,000 a coin because I think
• 32:57
  when all this is written in about 5, five years time, I
• 32:59
  don't think it's going to matter whether you bought Bitcoin at
• 33:01
  87127 or who knows 57. I think it's going to be a
• 33:07
  rounding error. And I think Bitcoin is going to
• 33:09
  surprise to the outside. So couldn't agree more, Nika.
• 33:11
  I think digital gold is a failure. 100 percent, 100% man,
• 33:16
  I, I think I, I 100% agree with you I think it's going to
• 33:19
  surprise everybody to the upside, the minimum, the minimum
• 33:22
  it's going to do that because if not look and, and this is what
• 33:26
  I've, I've told everybody like like the success of Bitcoin is
• 33:29
  binary, right? Like it either goes to 0 or it
• 33:32
  keeps going up. Like it doesn't just stay the
• 33:35
  same and stay in the same place. Like that's not how it works at
• 33:38
  all. Like this thing is either going
• 33:40
  to the moon like a rocket ship or it's going to 0, right?
• 33:43
  And I refer refused to go back to the Fiat system.
• 33:46
  The Fiat system is slavery. The Fiat system is a continue a
• 33:50
  continuous debasement of of your purchasing power.
• 33:54
  It takes away your hopes, it takes away your dreams.
• 33:57
  Bitcoin brings all of that back, right?
• 33:59
  So again, just because we've had a lackluster 2025 doesn't take
• 34:06
  away the fact that look, I think Bitcoins best days are yet still
• 34:11
  ahead. And that's what I'm that that is
• 34:13
  my base case. That is my base expectation.
• 34:17
  And again, just to catch up goal, that's a 15X and with what
• 34:21
  Luke was saying, that's much more than a 15X.
• 34:24
  And again, to think that isn't going to happen in the next not
• 34:27
  financial advice. I'm just telling you what I'm
• 34:29
  doing if to think that that's not going to happen over the
• 34:33
  next decade or so. I mean, like, I, I, I just think
• 34:37
  that you haven't read enough. Like I don't think you've,
• 34:39
  you've done enough research, right?
• 34:40
  Like, I don't think you've read the Bitcoin standard.
• 34:43
  I don't think you've seen enough of Luke's videos.
• 34:45
  I don't think you've tuned into simply Bitcoin enough, right?
• 34:48
  Anyways, guys, it's going to be an incredible show.
• 34:50
  We still have tons to cover. We're going to be right back in
• 34:53
  just a little bit. Today's episode is brought to
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• 37:38
  At the time of recording, the Bitcoin price is $87,340.
• 37:44
  Block height 929,929 thousand 309 Market cap 1.74 trillion
• 37:51
  Bitcoin versus gold market cap 5.45% decline from all time high
• 37:57
  -30.8%. And the clip that I wanted to
• 38:01
  pay for you guys is this Chad clip from Chad Saylor talking
• 38:06
  about how his company, he's like, look, he basically, I'll,
• 38:09
  I'll be honest with you, he's just calling everybody a bunch
• 38:12
  of sissies 'cause he's basically said like, look, I've witnessed,
• 38:16
  I've lived my company going down 99% and I'm the only Fortune 500
• 38:25
  or, or, you know, public company executive that has been able to
• 38:29
  survive that. So, you know, I know what it
• 38:32
  means to huddle basically, I'll let you guys, I'll, I'll let you
• 38:35
  guys listen in to what Sailor had to say.
• 38:38
  I'm unique cause in a couple ways.
• 38:41
  One, I'm the longest lasting CEO of a publicly traded enterprise
• 38:46
  software company and I live to see 99% of my peers quit or lose
• 38:53
  their job, but 99% mortality rate amongst my competitors,
• 38:57
  They all sold out over the course of 20 years.
• 39:01
  That's that's one interesting thing.
• 39:02
  The second thing is we, we did implement a capital structure so
• 39:06
  that the founders could pursue the mission of the business
• 39:10
  without volatility impacting. And 3rd, I'm not proud of this,
• 39:16
  but I, I'm the only public company officer, maybe the only
• 39:23
  public company CEO in the history of the world that
• 39:26
  actually lived to see his stock decline in value by 99.8%.
• 39:33
  My stock went from $333 a share to 42 cents a share.
• 39:42
  I kept my job. But if you were the, if you were
• 39:46
  my board of directors, you probably would have fired me if
• 39:49
  I did not have a controlling stake in the company.
• 39:53
  I kept my job and I kept the company and I didn't dissolve it
• 39:57
  and sell it off to a mega Corp to become.
• 40:01
  The 167th division of IBM and that's why I'm here today.
• 40:08
  So you know, people total age hold on for dear life or
• 40:14
  whatever it means, right? I get it right.
• 40:17
  It's it's pretty obvious, but but I find it's a joke.
• 40:22
  You know, when people get on crypto Twitter and they talk
• 40:25
  about how they might have to sell if, if Bitcoin trades down
• 40:28
  5%, like you guys haven't lived through anything, right?
• 40:33
  Chad, Chad Sailor, Chad Sailor. Could you imagine like one
• 40:38
  thing, like I don't think I've ever lived through a 99%
• 40:42
  correction. The ad like that's crazy.
• 40:45
  And then that was in the 90s. That was the.com bubble, by the
• 40:48
  way. So like $334 and then it goes
• 40:51
  down to under a dollar. And then he's basically goes
• 40:55
  sideways for 20 years. Can't compete with Microsoft
• 40:59
  finds Bitcoin, finds able like finds an edge, becomes the
• 41:03
  number one Bitcoin treasury company.
• 41:05
  His stock goes back up to $500. Now it's down 50%.
• 41:09
  How could you be bearish on this man?
• 41:11
  It's like when people talk shit about Elon Musk, it's like, I
• 41:14
  don't like Elon. It's like, do you know someone
• 41:16
  else that can land rockets and build self driving cars?
• 41:19
  It's like same with sailor. It's like, do you know another,
• 41:22
  you know, executive that has survived the 99% downturn and
• 41:26
  then turned around his company after 20 years and did the one
• 41:30
  of the best performing stocks of 2020 of 2024?
• 41:33
  Do you know someone else if that fits into that category?
• 41:36
  I don't think so, Right. So again, this guy knows what it
• 41:39
  means to huddle. And if you take a look at his
• 41:42
  history, he's not only been accurate about how this whole
• 41:47
  Bitcoin thing has played out, right?
• 41:49
  And again, I know we're in uncertainty right now.
• 41:51
  I know we're at a 30% drawdown. I know that everyone's feeling a
• 41:55
  little bit sad because they had high expectations for the end of
• 41:58
  the year. But he did accurately predict
• 42:01
  what was going to happen with the introduction of the iPhone,
• 42:06
  right? He said that this was going to
• 42:08
  change the game. He even wrote a book about it
• 42:10
  called The Mobile Wave, right? And he would, and he talked
• 42:13
  about how this was going to change people's lives.
• 42:16
  And in the background I was, I was taking a look at at to see
• 42:21
  if the primal stream was up. And by the way, shout out to the
• 42:24
  2500 SAT's Merry Christmas. Everybody on Primal appreciate
• 42:29
  all the Sats being zapped to us right now.
• 42:32
  But I saw a post by Matt Odell and he was talking about the
• 42:37
  fact that not look, the average 18 year old in the United States
• 42:41
  is on pace to spend 93% of their free time looking at a screen.
• 42:47
  And you say, Nico, what the fuck does that have to do with that
• 42:50
  thing? And I would say it has
• 42:51
  everything to do with that thing because Michael Saylor
• 42:54
  accurately predicted when he wrote the book the Mobile Wave,
• 42:58
  the significance of the introduction of something like
• 43:02
  the iPhone into people's lives. Think about it.
• 43:05
  I remember this. I, I'm old enough, I'm an, I'm
• 43:07
  an old man now. I, when I was in high school, I
• 43:10
  was a BlackBerry person, right? Like that was the phone.
• 43:13
  Like all you can do with your phone is play brick breaker and
• 43:17
  then BBM messenger. Like that was like the extent of
• 43:20
  what you can do with your cell phone.
• 43:22
  Think about what you can do with your cell phone today.
• 43:25
  You could do everything you can literally press a button, have
• 43:28
  food delivered to your house, book a flight, have someone pick
• 43:32
  you up. Like you can literally do
• 43:34
  everything on this thing. Watch entertainment, watch some
• 43:38
  people on YouTube, watch TikTok for whatever reason, get your
• 43:41
  news on X. You literally do everything on
• 43:44
  your phone. And Michael Saylor accurately
• 43:46
  predicted that was going to happen when he wrote his book
• 43:50
  The Mobile Wave, right? And if you take a look at these
• 43:52
  numbers, this is crazy, 9393% of an 18 year old's free time is
• 43:59
  going to be spent looking at a screen.
• 44:01
  So if you take a look, if you take into account that pedigree
• 44:05
  of accurately predicting what is going to happen with all this,
• 44:10
  you know, tech, technological information.
• 44:12
  And if you actually take into account what Sailor is saying
• 44:16
  about Bitcoin and how it's going to transform the world and what
• 44:20
  it's going to do for humanity and what it's going to do for
• 44:23
  money, like like what Luke was saying earlier about how Bitcoin
• 44:31
  just following the power law is going to be a disappointment.
• 44:34
  Like it makes perfect sense. And again, you would have
• 44:37
  laughed Michael Saylor completely out of the room back
• 44:41
  then with all the things that he was saying about the iPhone and
• 44:45
  about the iPad. You would have laughed him out
• 44:47
  or you would have been like, what are you talking about?
• 44:48
  Like it's just the phone. Like it's like, what are you
• 44:51
  like, what are you smoking? Right.
• 44:52
  So again, you kind of have to look back back into the past and
• 44:58
  take a look at his, you know, take a look at his track record,
• 45:01
  right, to see, you know, how potentially it could play out
• 45:05
  into the future. And I wanted to play you guys
• 45:07
  that clip because again, that is literally the definition of a
• 45:10
  true hodler. I've never held through a 99%
• 45:14
  downturn, personally. I've never done that before.
• 45:17
  Usually when something goes down 99%, it does not come back up,
• 45:22
  right? Because it gets exponentially
• 45:24
  worse, guys. Like look, if you go, if
• 45:26
  something goes down 99%, it could still drop another 99%,
• 45:32
  right? It could still exponentially get
• 45:34
  lower and lower and lower and lower, right?
• 45:36
  That's what people don't understand.
• 45:38
  Like it, it's a 50% drop, but a 50% drop could still drop 50%
• 45:43
  and then it could still drop lower than that, right?
• 45:45
  So anyways, Luke, I'm going to pass it on to you.
• 45:47
  Yeah. I mean, it's kind of wild.
• 45:49
  I can't think of many other stocks send no.
• 46:20
  To having one of the most valuable treasuries in the
• 46:24
  entire world, which is kind of mind blowing when you think
• 46:27
  about it. This chart here is looking at
• 46:30
  the largest companies in on the entire planet, your Amazon,
• 46:34
  Google, Microsoft, Apple, Ford and Meta.
• 46:38
  We've got General Motors. Yes, bitcoins been a little bit
• 46:41
  volatile. Maybe strategies slip on at the
• 46:44
  time in this live stream, but even zooming out strategies
• 46:49
  companies money cash on hand, their treasury is in the top 10
• 46:56
  biggest treasuries in the entire world.
• 46:59
  It has been absolutely vindicated their Bitcoin
• 47:04
  treasury strategy playbook. It is going to be adopted by all
• 47:09
  of these companies in the future because their only option to
• 47:13
  stay ahead of strategy or have more money than strategy is to
• 47:17
  buy more Bitcoin than strategy. Because if bitcoins number does
• 47:22
  continue to go up, strategies treasury will continue to go up.
• 47:26
  And if it does reach this number one spot, which and I think it
• 47:30
  will in the next 5 years, it'll overtake Berkshire Hathaway with
• 47:33
  that $410 billion giant treasury.
• 47:37
  Every single company on this list will be forced to pay
• 47:40
  attention to what strategy has done because it's not only going
• 47:45
  from nothing to you know $100 billion market cap it it went
• 47:49
  from a 99% correction. And crash.
• 47:53
  After that 2000.com bubble mania blew up to now being one of the
• 47:59
  biggest companies in the world. I think this is something that
• 48:02
  so many people forget and I don't think a 50% correction
• 48:06
  along the way is going to change strategy's thesis.
• 48:10
  Strategy has the technologically superior way to store capital.
• 48:17
  It is Bitcoin or it is nothing. Niko, you actually got me
• 48:21
  thinking about this earlier. Not only is gold a terrible
• 48:26
  store of value if you look at it on a 50 year chart, but it is
• 48:29
  impossible to take across borders.
• 48:32
  You can't take more than $10,000 of gold across a border.
• 48:36
  And if you do, if you try to snuggle a couple of what are
• 48:39
  these Nuggets up the wazoo to try to cross the border, you get
• 48:44
  caught. There is no way to use gold as
• 48:48
  money on a global level. As you can see, that doesn't
• 48:51
  look comfortable trying to use gold as money to cross a border,
• 48:55
  anything but comfortable. You sneeze and all of a sudden
• 48:58
  you hear some Nuggets, the airplane, the floor.
• 49:01
  I mean, This is why we Bitcoin and I think it's very easy to
• 49:06
  get caught up in, you know, short term corrections and noise
• 49:11
  about the price. Yes, strategy's down 50% this
• 49:14
  year. But I think, hey, when we zoom
• 49:16
  out in two to three years time, I think all of this will be
• 49:19
  noise. And I think it'll be very, very
• 49:20
  clear which companies have a winning formula and which
• 49:24
  companies are sitting on melting ice cubes.
• 49:27
  I think it's going to be as simple as that.
• 49:28
  Absolutely. All right, everybody.
• 49:29
  We're going to be right back in just a little bit.
• 49:31
  We're going to hit the news tons to talk about.
• 49:33
  I know that the Samurai developer, I know that he
• 49:36
  surrendered last week, but again, we can't forget.
• 49:39
  We still got to keep putting the pressure on.
• 49:42
  So we have an update and again, I want to talk about the
• 49:44
  significance of this case. There was an amazing article
• 49:48
  written on Bitcoin Magazine. We're going to cover it for just
• 49:50
  a little bit. And then during the culture
• 49:52
  segment, we're going to go down memory lane and I want to tell
• 49:55
  you guys about my experience with Luke Mikic.
• 49:57
  We're going to talk about his YouTube channel and just go back
• 50:01
  and talk about just YouTube, how it's changed our lives in
• 50:04
  general as content creators, as as Bitcoin content creators.
• 50:08
  It it things weren't as you know, as as they are now in the
• 50:12
  very early days there, there was no one right.
• 50:14
  So we're going to be talking about during the during I'm like
• 50:17
  losing my my train of thought. We're going to be talking about
• 50:20
  all of that during the culture segment.
• 50:22
  So you guys are going to want to stay tuned.
• 50:23
  Smash the like button. We're going to be right back in
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  just a bit. I want to give a shout out to
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• 53:47
  Alright everybody, let's get into today's news story.
• 53:49
  What am I talking about? First, let's give it a little
• 53:51
  bit of context. So ladies and gentlemen, we've
• 53:55
  been talking about this for over 2 years now.
• 53:57
  We've been talking about the Tornado Cash case and we've been
• 54:00
  talking about the Samurai Wallet developed the Samurai case.
• 54:05
  We told you guys when the Tornado Cash case was happening,
• 54:08
  no one cared about Tornado Cash because it had to do with
• 54:10
  Etherium. No one really knew what Tornado
• 54:12
  Cash was. But we were telling you guys
• 54:14
  when it was happening that it was going to set a very
• 54:18
  dangerous precedent if the government won the case.
• 54:22
  Why? Because essentially it would
• 54:24
  open Pandora's box and it would allow the government to
• 54:28
  basically say, listen, if you build open source software and
• 54:32
  for whatever reason criminals decide to use that open source
• 54:36
  software for criminal activity, you, the software developer, are
• 54:41
  responsible. If you want to know why Satoshi
• 54:44
  disappeared off the face of the planet and why he's anonymous,
• 54:48
  that is why. If Satoshi was not anonymous, he
• 54:51
  would probably be in a jail cell today, right?
• 54:54
  So again, this is a very important case to cover.
• 54:56
  This is very important case to highlight.
• 54:58
  And, and right now as it stands, it's extremely unfortunate the
• 55:06
  samurai wallet developer developers right now, Keon had
• 55:10
  to turn himself in. So right now he is in, in a, in,
• 55:14
  in, in a, in a, in a federal camp.
• 55:16
  He's in, he's in prison right now, which is which is terrible,
• 55:19
  right? This has been brought up to
• 55:21
  President Trump. I have the clip for you guys
• 55:23
  right here. Mr. President, this week, a man
• 55:27
  named Keoni Rodriguez is going to federal prison for creating
• 55:30
  crypto privacy software. The case was started under the
• 55:33
  Biden administration, but. Your DOGDOJ kept it going and
• 55:38
  secured the conviction. A lot of people in crypto are
• 55:40
  saying that this man should be pardoned.
• 55:43
  Are you familiar with the case at all, or would you be
• 55:45
  interested? I've heard about it and I'll
• 55:46
  look at it. Why you think you should be
• 55:47
  pardoned? Sounds like it sounds like based
• 55:51
  on your question, many people on the Rodriguez.
• 55:53
  We'll look at that Pam OK, let's take a look at it.
• 55:56
  You know, you'll have to tell me so yeah, again, President Trump
• 56:02
  Bitcoiners got you elected. We're not very happy about this
• 56:05
  right now, but this article kind of lays out, you know what's at
• 56:09
  stake, right? So pardoning the samurai
• 56:11
  developers. Well, I'm not going to read the
• 56:12
  whole thing, but I'll I'll do like a general review.
• 56:16
  Pardoning the Samurai developers would restore legal clarity and
• 56:19
  protect non custodial code. The Samurai Wallet matter raises
• 56:23
  A fundamental question about how the United States treats non
• 56:26
  custodial software and the developers who create it.
• 56:29
  The Samurai wallet developers did not operate a financial
• 56:32
  service or handle customer assets.
• 56:35
  They wrote and maintained software that allowed users to
• 56:37
  construct collaborative Bitcoin transactions in a privacy
• 56:41
  preserving way throughout the tools entire life cycle.
• 56:45
  Users controlled their own keys, initiated their own
• 56:48
  transactions, and never relied on Samurai or its developers to
• 56:51
  transmit or safeguard value. The distinction between a
• 56:55
  custodial service and a non custodial tool is not a
• 56:58
  technicality. It is the core bank, a boundary
• 57:01
  that the Bank Secrecy Act fins and guidance and decades of
• 57:05
  regulatory practice used to distinguish software officer
• 57:08
  authors from regulated financial intermediaries.
• 57:11
  The keyword in all of this is the word intermediary, because
• 57:16
  the way that the system is built today, and I'm not going to
• 57:20
  sugarcoat it whatsoever, is that the system is built so that
• 57:25
  bank, so banks and any of the apps that you use, they function
• 57:30
  as enforcement arms for the state, right?
• 57:33
  So if you think about what a bank account is from a
• 57:36
  Bitcoiners perspective, essentially it's a two of three
• 57:39
  multi sig where the bank holds a key, the state holds a key and
• 57:44
  you hold a key, right? Think about it that way, right?
• 57:47
  If you want to use kind of like a Bitcoin analogy, right?
• 57:50
  And essentially the reason that they went after the Samurai
• 57:55
  Wallet developers was not only to make an example out of them,
• 57:59
  but basically say, listen, it doesn't matter whether you know
• 58:04
  this person wasn't holding your money.
• 58:08
  But what they did was that they enabled you to regain some type
• 58:13
  of financial privacy and some type of sovereignty.
• 58:17
  They weren't actually interested in going after them because, you
• 58:22
  know, they were facilitating money laundering.
• 58:25
  Why do I know that? How can I say that with so much
• 58:28
  certainty? Because when banks do the exact
• 58:31
  same thing, they get fined when big.
• 58:35
  When open source developers do the same thing, guess what
• 58:39
  happens? They go to jail.
• 58:41
  There's a 2 tier system. The reason that banks get fined
• 58:45
  is because they can control banks.
• 58:48
  The reason that open source developers go to jail is because
• 58:52
  they can't control open source developers.
• 58:55
  That's the reason, right? And that isn't justice.
• 58:58
  If there's a 2 tier system, by definition, that is not justice.
• 59:03
  That is injustice. And by the way, I always read
• 59:06
  you guys this passage, but I'm going to read it to you guys
• 59:09
  again because I think it's very applicable here.
• 59:12
  It comes from the book, The sovereign individual that
• 59:15
  predicted all of this was going to happen.
• 59:18
  How did they predict this? They predicted that information
• 59:22
  technologies was essentially going to take a tremendous
• 59:25
  amount of power away from the state, and we've seen two things
• 59:30
  get taken away or disintermediated.
• 59:32
  Better said, the first thing is information.
• 59:35
  You guys remember the censorship?
• 59:37
  You guys remember The X-Files that were released?
• 59:39
  The Twitter files that were released where even in the
• 59:42
  United States, where freedom of speech is protected by the 1st
• 59:46
  Amendment, you had the US government reaching out to
• 59:50
  social media companies and censoring the free speech of
• 59:54
  American citizens, right? Why was that happening?
• 59:58
  It was because before the Internet, the government
• 1:00:01
  basically had a complete monopoly and control.
• 1:00:04
  Role over information flows because there was only a
• 1:00:07
  handful. I'm going to use the word again,
• 1:00:09
  a handful of intermediaries to tap on.
• 1:00:12
  Think about before X think about it before YouTube, think about
• 1:00:16
  before Facebook. How would you get your news?
• 1:00:18
  There was a handful of of of, of newspapers, there was a handful
• 1:00:23
  of TV stations, and that was it. Now with the Internet, there's
• 1:00:26
  millions of people online constantly creating their own
• 1:00:31
  content, speaking their truths. It's not a coincidence that the
• 1:00:35
  most popular broadcaster on the face of the planet is a
• 1:00:39
  broadcaster by the name of Joe Rogan.
• 1:00:41
  That's not a coincidence, ladies and gentlemen, that is the new
• 1:00:44
  age. And that is exactly what the
• 1:00:45
  book The Sovereign Individual was talking about.
• 1:00:48
  And he was making the case that, listen, it was going to be very
• 1:00:50
  difficult for them to control the narrative like they were,
• 1:00:54
  like they've been used to being able to in the past.
• 1:00:57
  Now the same disintermediation is happening to money.
• 1:01:02
  And now the reason that the stakes are so much higher is
• 1:01:05
  that the government's monopoly on money is their source of
• 1:01:09
  control. It is their source of power.
• 1:01:12
  So it doesn't surprise me that they react this way.
• 1:01:16
  It doesn't surprise me that the Samurai wallet developers got
• 1:01:20
  arrested and got convicted for writing privacy open source code
• 1:01:26
  like that. They're basically make the
• 1:01:27
  government basically made the case that the samurai wallet
• 1:01:30
  developers are responsible for criminals using their software,
• 1:01:35
  right? That's the case that they made,
• 1:01:37
  right? Anyhow, so let me read you guys
• 1:01:39
  this again. This was written in 1997 and boy
• 1:01:43
  did they get it right. Businesses that offer the
• 1:01:46
  services that facilitate the realization of autonomy by
• 1:01:49
  individuals will be subject to infiltration, sabotage, and
• 1:01:52
  disruption. Arbitrary forfeiture of property
• 1:01:55
  already commonplace in the United States, where it occurs
• 1:01:57
  5000 times a week, will become even more pervasive.
• 1:02:00
  Governments will violate human rights, censor the free flow of
• 1:02:03
  information, sabotage useful technologies and worse, right.
• 1:02:07
  And by the way, phenomenon isn't just happening in the United
• 1:02:10
  States. This is a worldwide phenomenon.
• 1:02:12
  In Europe, they're censoring information where our boy Lucas
• 1:02:17
  from, they're censoring information.
• 1:02:19
  They're censoring social media. So again, this is going to
• 1:02:23
  continue to happen, but you have to understand why it's
• 1:02:26
  happening. It's happening because
• 1:02:28
  essentially the Internet freed the bird.
• 1:02:31
  The Internet opened the cage. The Internet has allowed free
• 1:02:35
  and open communication. And by doing so, it's now
• 1:02:39
  enabled technologies like Bitcoin to have this free and
• 1:02:42
  open monetary system. Now, what it is revealing in the
• 1:02:46
  process is like, wait a second, hold on.
• 1:02:49
  Like, but you know, we had this understanding that you guys
• 1:02:55
  would have the monopoly over money because there was no other
• 1:02:59
  better way to do it because it would get corrupt.
• 1:03:01
  You don't want private citizens issuing their own money.
• 1:03:04
  But what happens when there's a protocol like Noster or a
• 1:03:08
  protocol like Bitcoin that comes into the scene and says, hey,
• 1:03:12
  wait a second, not only can we do money better, we can actually
• 1:03:15
  have a system that has rules without rulers.
• 1:03:19
  Well, the rulers have to justify why why they should be rulers.
• 1:03:23
  That's why you're seeing the reaction from central banks
• 1:03:26
  towards Bitcoin. That's why you're seeing the
• 1:03:29
  reaction from governments towards social media.
• 1:03:32
  They feel very uncomfortable. Rather than adjusting their own
• 1:03:35
  behavior and their own incentive structure, what they do is that
• 1:03:39
  they use their monopoly on violence.
• 1:03:41
  They double down and they try to say, listen, you're the bad guy.
• 1:03:45
  You're the person that's doing wrong.
• 1:03:47
  We don't have to change your behavior.
• 1:03:49
  You have to change your behavior.
• 1:03:51
  You have to own nothing and be happy.
• 1:03:54
  You have to eat the bugs. There's a 15 mile limit that you
• 1:03:58
  can travel and no more than that.
• 1:03:59
  Anyways, Luke passing it on to you bro.
• 1:04:02
  I I have to cover this case man because what happened to the
• 1:04:06
  Samurai wallet developers is a tragedy.
• 1:04:10
  Yeah, absolutely. Before I get to the Samurai
• 1:04:14
  case, I I think everything you say makes a lot of sense.
• 1:04:18
  Again, I don't think all of the craziness that we're seeing in
• 1:04:21
  Clown World is like a political issue.
• 1:04:24
  So many people are trying to attribute political answers to
• 1:04:28
  what is very clearly an economic and a technological phase shift
• 1:04:33
  at very basic first principles. Governments all around the world
• 1:04:38
  today have more debt than they had all the way back in the
• 1:04:41
  1940s during World War 2. And a very easy way for a
• 1:04:46
  government to pay back its debt is to steal the money from the
• 1:04:50
  citizens. But to get the citizens on board
• 1:04:53
  or normalized to having their wealth stolen, you need to pass
• 1:04:58
  all of these crazy laws. And you introduce them slowly,
• 1:05:01
  you know, piece by piece over time.
• 1:05:05
  You can't just instantly go from 0% taxes to 50% taxes, 20%
• 1:05:11
  property taxes, digital ID. He's tracked, you know, tracked
• 1:05:18
  transactions. Everything you do is bagged and
• 1:05:21
  tagged and given to the tax authorities.
• 1:05:23
  You can't just make that leap overnight.
• 1:05:26
  You need to create lots of problems or you just once a
• 1:05:30
  problem arises, you make the most of it and you take as much
• 1:05:34
  power as you possibly can. By the way, the book The
• 1:05:37
  Sovereign Individual written in 1997 when they were talking
• 1:05:42
  about how technology would change the world and how
• 1:05:46
  entrepreneurs and business owners would start moving to tax
• 1:05:50
  advantage countries and start operating their businesses in
• 1:05:54
  cyberspace where they don't get taxed 50 or 60% from their local
• 1:05:58
  countries. The book actually predicted a
• 1:06:01
  way that a government might, you know, try to stop the people
• 1:06:06
  fleeing their home countries and moving overseas would to create
• 1:06:11
  a lockdown situation. Again, this book was written in
• 1:06:14
  1997. Now, I don't think I need to be
• 1:06:18
  careful of what I say, but I think all of the craziness we
• 1:06:21
  see in the world, always seen is governments trying to normalize
• 1:06:25
  the idea of stealing money, capital controls and outrageous
• 1:06:30
  taxes because they have a very simple economic problem.
• 1:06:33
  They have an enormous debt burden.
• 1:06:36
  And as millionaires and business owners leave their home country,
• 1:06:41
  this creates A flywheel. This creates an exponential
• 1:06:45
  process because in many countries and states in America,
• 1:06:49
  the top 1%, they pay 50% of the taxes.
• 1:06:53
  If all your millionaires are leaving your country, like in
• 1:06:56
  California for example, 300,000 people are leaving the state
• 1:06:59
  every year. In the UK, 15,000 millionaires
• 1:07:04
  are leaving the country every year.
• 1:07:06
  If your most productive parts of society is leaving your society,
• 1:07:11
  they pay all the taxes. What happens?
• 1:07:14
  The government already has an enormous economic problem and
• 1:07:18
  the technology that we have today that enables the business
• 1:07:21
  owners to leave only creates A flywheel and it makes the
• 1:07:25
  problem worse. This is why the countries with
• 1:07:29
  the most amount of debt think about them.
• 1:07:32
  Canada, Australia, the UK, the PIGS, countries in Europe,
• 1:07:36
  Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain, France.
• 1:07:39
  Think about the countries with the most debt and then think
• 1:07:41
  about which countries have the most bananas.
• 1:07:44
  Mind bendingly stupid laws and policies.
• 1:07:48
  It's a perfect correlation. I don't know of a country
• 1:07:52
  heavily indebted who is not going down crazy lane.
• 1:07:55
  So again, I I don't think any of this is political answers.
• 1:07:59
  And I think sadly examples like this that we're seeing in the
• 1:08:03
  samurai case, they're going to continue to happen.
• 1:08:07
  And it's not because our country's, you know, operating
• 1:08:10
  under conspiracy theory or they're, you know, I mean, they
• 1:08:14
  certainly could. But I, I think, I, I think it's
• 1:08:17
  much easier to explain all of the craziness from basic
• 1:08:21
  economic principles and basic technological principles.
• 1:08:24
  It is very clear they're incredibly scared of digital
• 1:08:28
  money and digital communications.
• 1:08:30
  And the same way that the printing press liberated society
• 1:08:35
  and democratize information and decentralize information, the
• 1:08:38
  same way that that technology fundamentally change society.
• 1:08:42
  In the late 1400s and the early 1500s, we saw the separation of
• 1:08:47
  the church and the state. That's what we talk about all
• 1:08:48
  the time on Simply Bitcoin. But what happened?
• 1:08:51
  The church and the state fought a 20 year war against those
• 1:08:56
  people who were trying to create this technological revolution.
• 1:09:00
  Be very prepared for something similar to play out if we are
• 1:09:04
  trying to separate money from state.
• 1:09:07
  A lot of people think this is going to be a very easy process.
• 1:09:10
  I don't think so. And again, I'm not being a
• 1:09:12
  doomer. My money is where my mouth is.
• 1:09:15
  I'm not living in a Western country until this monetary
• 1:09:19
  transition has fully played out. So again, I think sadly,
• 1:09:24
  examples like this, even in America, what's supposed to be
• 1:09:28
  the freest country around the world, they will continue to
• 1:09:31
  happen because of the economic and the technological realities
• 1:09:34
  that Niko brought up with the sovereign individual.
• 1:09:38
  Absolutely 100% spot on, Luke. It's a symptom, right?
• 1:09:42
  Like these societies are not, these are not political.
• 1:09:46
  These are not it's not ideologues, right?
• 1:09:48
  These are are are governments, right, that are heavily in debt
• 1:09:52
  that are, that are reacting and they're using ideal ideology as
• 1:09:56
  cover by the way, they're using anything their their only
• 1:09:59
  excuses are suffering from inflation.
• 1:10:02
  But at 100%, they're symptoms of these of these societies being
• 1:10:09
  so heavily indebted. And they're symptoms of the fact
• 1:10:12
  that now we live in this brave new world where essentially, if
• 1:10:16
  you're a successful person, you can literally get up and leave,
• 1:10:20
  right? You can take your wealth with
• 1:10:23
  you. That is that is the power of of
• 1:10:25
  Bitcoin. Like Luke was pulling up an
• 1:10:27
  article of I'm going to I'm going to use the Australian term
• 1:10:30
  because I love it of of the goal in the wazoo right now.
• 1:10:34
  You don't have to, you know, put your Bitcoin in the wazoo.
• 1:10:38
  You can prize your Bitcoin instead of doing Opti pulling
• 1:10:41
  that up. Thank you, Opti.
• 1:10:44
  So Oh my God, that must have been painful.
• 1:10:48
  But the point, the point I'm trying to make is you don't have
• 1:10:52
  to do that anymore, right? You don't have to do that
• 1:10:54
  anymore. You can memorize your seed word.
• 1:10:57
  If you're in a pickle, I don't recommend that.
• 1:10:59
  But you can memorize your seed words or memorize your seed
• 1:11:01
  phrase and you can take your money with you cross borders or
• 1:11:05
  you can move to a more favorable jurisdiction.
• 1:11:09
  This is what the book The Sovereign Individual was all
• 1:11:12
  about. They were making this case,
• 1:11:14
  right? And the Internet has enabled
• 1:11:16
  this. It has allowed this before the
• 1:11:18
  Internet, you remote work was not possible.
• 1:11:21
  What we do right now for what Luke and I do for a living would
• 1:11:25
  not be possible. But it wouldn't be a viable a
• 1:11:28
  business model. It wouldn't it would literally
• 1:11:29
  be impossible. The only equivalent would be we
• 1:11:32
  would have to go to ATV station, we'd have to get interviewed.
• 1:11:35
  We'd have to get like we wouldn't be, we would be, we
• 1:11:37
  would be unemployed. I'll put it to you that way,
• 1:11:39
  right? Because that would be the only
• 1:11:41
  way for you to broadcast to an audience, right?
• 1:11:44
  So again, the Internet has completely changed the, the,
• 1:11:46
  the, the, the playing field and governments are slowly reacting
• 1:11:51
  to it. And that's where you're, that's
• 1:11:53
  why you're seeing them clamp down.
• 1:11:54
  That's why you're seeing them double down instead of them
• 1:11:57
  facing the reality and saying, wow, OK, now we have competition
• 1:12:01
  because this is the theory from the sovereign individual.
• 1:12:04
  They're basically making the case that over a long enough
• 1:12:06
  time period, what Luke is waiting out is that eventually
• 1:12:10
  governments will come to a realization and, and, and say,
• 1:12:13
  listen, like if we're not competitive with country A or
• 1:12:18
  country B, our most productive citizens, as Luke was
• 1:12:21
  mentioning, are going to leave to those countries.
• 1:12:25
  They're going to take their money with them and they're
• 1:12:28
  going to take their tax revenue with them, right?
• 1:12:30
  We now have to incentivize those people, those productive
• 1:12:34
  individuals to come back to the country.
• 1:12:37
  How do you incentivize individuals to come back to the
• 1:12:39
  country? Well, Salvador just laid it out
• 1:12:41
  for you. What do you do?
• 1:12:42
  You protect private property, you increase security.
• 1:12:46
  You create an environment where if you're an investor, you feel
• 1:12:50
  confident that you can invest in that country without getting
• 1:12:53
  scammed, right? That's what you do.
• 1:12:55
  That's how you attract capital. That's how you attract
• 1:12:58
  productive people. And I think that's the
• 1:13:00
  phenomenon that we're seeing on a global level.
• 1:13:02
  Anyways, ladies and gentlemen, the best part of the show is
• 1:13:05
  still left up. We're going to be talking about
• 1:13:07
  Luke Mikich channel, Bitcoin content creation in general.
• 1:13:10
  It's going to be awesome. Let's get to the culture
• 1:13:12
  segment. We're going to be right back in
• 1:13:13
  just a bit. I want to give a shout out to
• 1:13:16
  our partner Hive Digital Technologies.
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  At Hive, you've got dual engines, Bitcoin and AI humming,
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  they're rewriting the playbook on sustainable digital
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  Hive Digital Tech or at Hive digitaltech.com.
• 1:13:54
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  what are you waiting for? Head over to Bitcoin bend dot
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  IO. Join today where Bitcoin meets
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  freedom. All right, everybody, we are
• 1:15:13
  back. Guys, if you're tuning into the
• 1:15:15
  Simply Bitcoin channel and you're not subscribed to the
• 1:15:17
  Luke Mikich channel, you're missing out on a bunch of great
• 1:15:20
  content. Guys, I've known Luke for like
• 1:15:23
  half a decade at this point and I remember the early days and I
• 1:15:28
  remember basically seeing someone that was, I saw the
• 1:15:34
  talent very, very early on and just watching his journey, you
• 1:15:39
  know, his career path has been fantastic to see as a content
• 1:15:44
  creator going through that journey myself, content creation
• 1:15:48
  is not easy, guys. Like you guys see the final
• 1:15:51
  product, the polished product, but you guys don't see all the
• 1:15:55
  bullshit life, for lack of a better expression, that happens
• 1:15:58
  behind the scenes. You guys don't see the amount of
• 1:16:01
  time that you spend with editors, the amount of time that
• 1:16:04
  you spend setting up these live streams for them to perform the
• 1:16:07
  way they do and all the things that come along with it.
• 1:16:11
  And I really got to say this from the bottom of my heart,
• 1:16:14
  Luke is literally one of the best in the industry,
• 1:16:19
  specifically in the in the live stream aspect.
• 1:16:22
  This kid is incredibly talented he's fantastic.
• 1:16:25
  I'm a huge fan and go subscribe to his channel.
• 1:16:28
  Go check out the Luke Mikich channel Hardcore Bitcoiner.
• 1:16:32
  And he's got some surprises for you guys in the new year in
• 1:16:35
  terms of, of, of, of content that he has laid out for you
• 1:16:39
  guys. So I wanted to give a shout out
• 1:16:40
  to Luke. We were talking, we were all
• 1:16:43
  talking about what we were going to make the culture segment on
• 1:16:46
  when we were preparing the show. And I was like, we're going to
• 1:16:49
  make it about Luke, right? You guys have seen me and Opti
• 1:16:52
  go down memory lane and talk about the early days of, of, of
• 1:16:56
  simply and setting everything up.
• 1:16:59
  But yeah, I want to go down the the memory lane of the early
• 1:17:02
  days of, of Luke Mikic. I remember you first started
• 1:17:06
  making content for for for coin beast.
• 1:17:09
  I remember that. And then I remember from my time
• 1:17:12
  at Swan, I would, I would have, I would have preached, I would
• 1:17:14
  approach the CEO and I'm like, dude, we have to get this kid.
• 1:17:17
  He's so talented. He, he, he like, he knows what
• 1:17:20
  he's doing. And then, of course, here it's
• 1:17:22
  simply, you know, you do you do some work with us as well.
• 1:17:26
  Like it, it's been it's been fantastic man, to to really team
• 1:17:31
  up with you and make this content together.
• 1:17:33
  And you know, to just just see to to borrow Nick Carters
• 1:17:37
  expression, see your star rising, man.
• 1:17:41
  It's been great to see, but I'm going to call it.
• 1:17:44
  I'm going to call it and I was right.
• 1:17:46
  I was right as hell. Simply Bitcoin, tomorrow's
• 1:17:48
  Bitcoin news today. I saw this from day effing one,
• 1:17:52
  man, I called it from day one. I'm like this kids going to the
• 1:17:56
  moon. I stop it far too kind.
• 1:17:58
  Firstly, thank you for the kind words.
• 1:18:00
  I didn't think I deserve them yet, but I appreciate them.
• 1:18:04
  And I mean, honestly, I'm just glad that, you know, I've got a
• 1:18:07
  dream job. I can travel anywhere around the
• 1:18:09
  world. I can do whatever I want
• 1:18:10
  whenever I want. And I mean, we get to just talk
• 1:18:13
  about Bitcoin on Christmas Eve. I mean, for me, that's a dream
• 1:18:17
  job. And I, I just think, you know,
• 1:18:19
  as we continue transitioning into this digital age, I think
• 1:18:24
  more and more other people will be able to become to the book
• 1:18:27
  sovereign individuals and do what they want, when they want.
• 1:18:30
  They can earn in Bitcoin, save in Bitcoin, and most importantly
• 1:18:34
  talk about things that we're actually passionate about.
• 1:18:37
  Again, I think that's a massive gap in the market that we both
• 1:18:41
  identified. Again, simply Bitcoin.
• 1:18:43
  You guys are one of the first people making Bitcoin only
• 1:18:45
  content in 2020. And I watched you guys start and
• 1:18:48
  I was like, oh shit, this is so true.
• 1:18:49
  When I first started trying to learn about Bitcoin, like way
• 1:18:53
  back in 2017, there was no Bitcoin only education.
• 1:18:57
  It was crypto scammers trying to sell you a trading cause or the
• 1:19:02
  next 100 X shit coin. And I was like, I just got lost
• 1:19:06
  in the North noise for a couple of years there in 2017.
• 1:19:09
  And again, I think simply Bitcoin started it, Bitcoin only
• 1:19:14
  education. And I think that's just, you
• 1:19:16
  know, it's a massive gap in the market right now.
• 1:19:18
  It's super easy to make entertaining content, but I
• 1:19:22
  think educational content, it's a completely different beast.
• 1:19:25
  Anyone can make a 62nd entertaining video, but doing a
• 1:19:29
  live stream for an hour and a half, it's completely different.
• 1:19:32
  So again, thank you for the calm words.
• 1:19:35
  I I'm just glad, you know, making content talking about
• 1:19:37
  Bitcoin and only Bitcoin. I, I just think it's a dream
• 1:19:40
  come true. So again, it's great to learn
• 1:19:43
  from people like you, Nico and get to do whatever we want
• 1:19:46
  whenever we want. It's beautiful.
• 1:19:48
  I appreciate the kind words back, man.
• 1:19:50
  And let's talk about the, the escape 'cause that's part of
• 1:19:53
  your you're part of your branding, Luke, right, the 9:00
• 1:19:56
  to 5:00 escape artist, right? And I think this is what a lot
• 1:19:59
  of people have not fully under fully.
• 1:20:03
  Comprehended like they might feel stuck in their in their
• 1:20:06
  situation, but the reality is guys is that you know the and
• 1:20:11
  we're this and I'm going to connect this what we were
• 1:20:13
  talking about during the news. The Internet has changed the
• 1:20:15
  ball game, right So you can work remotely anywhere around the
• 1:20:20
  world. If you are providing value, you
• 1:20:23
  don't necessarily have to be tied down to a physical
• 1:20:26
  location, right. So again, this allows you to
• 1:20:31
  reclaim back your time and it also allows you to work on
• 1:20:36
  something that you feel passionate about as long as
• 1:20:39
  you're providing value to others.
• 1:20:41
  If you're providing value to others, you can monetize that,
• 1:20:45
  right and then it's just a matter of scaling it.
• 1:20:48
  And then that allows you again to reclaim back your time and it
• 1:20:51
  allows you to choose where you want to live, which is very,
• 1:20:54
  very important. And by the way, this phenomenon
• 1:20:57
  has only this phenomenon just started happening in the last
• 1:21:02
  two decades or so. Before that it was literally
• 1:21:05
  impossible. I would say in the last decade
• 1:21:07
  really, it was literally impossible.
• 1:21:09
  You were you would not be able to do it.
• 1:21:12
  And if I told you that I had this sophisticated plan of, Oh
• 1:21:17
  my God, you know, we're going to create a, a media company and
• 1:21:20
  stuff like that, you know, when I started simply Bitcoin, I'd be
• 1:21:25
  lying to you. It like it I, I was, I was
• 1:21:27
  extremely lucky. I was in the right place at the
• 1:21:29
  right time. There was product market fit.
• 1:21:32
  There was a there was a, there was a gap in the market.
• 1:21:34
  And again, if you fulfill a need, right, it's like basic
• 1:21:40
  economics 101, right? People are people want it,
• 1:21:43
  right? It's like supply and demand,
• 1:21:44
  right? So if if you're providing a
• 1:21:47
  service that people want, you know, you're able to you're able
• 1:21:52
  to monetize that, you're able to build a business out of that.
• 1:21:55
  And Luke, I've I've seen you do that as well.
• 1:21:58
  And then again, that's allowed you to live life on your own
• 1:22:02
  terms and it's allowed you to live where you want to live,
• 1:22:05
  which I think is very, very important, right?
• 1:22:07
  And I think, Luke, I want you to talk about that because again,
• 1:22:11
  some people perhaps feel stuck where they don't need to feel
• 1:22:15
  stuck. They, they don't need to play
• 1:22:18
  the game that perhaps their parents played.
• 1:22:21
  They don't need to play this traditional 9:00 to 5:00 just to
• 1:22:24
  get by. There are much better
• 1:22:27
  alternative options. And not only that, you'll make a
• 1:22:31
  lot more money with those alternative options.
• 1:22:34
  Like you got to think bigger. And this is only possible
• 1:22:38
  because of the Internet. If you're able to leverage the
• 1:22:41
  Internet to make a living there, there is no ceiling like there
• 1:22:46
  is no ceiling on what you can do.
• 1:22:49
  Obviously, this requires A tremendous amount of of of, of
• 1:22:53
  training, of practice, of repetition of iterations.
• 1:22:58
  You have to be confident in yourself to fail in public.
• 1:23:01
  Go to go take a look at my first simply Bitcoin video.
• 1:23:04
  Go take a look at Luke's first videos.
• 1:23:06
  You'll see for yourself. But over time, guess what
• 1:23:10
  happens? You end up becoming really,
• 1:23:13
  really, really good at it because you've done it for so
• 1:23:16
  long, right? So, yeah, I, I want to talk
• 1:23:19
  about that, Luke, because it is part of your brand.
• 1:23:21
  It is part of who you are. Right?
• 1:23:23
  Nine to five escape artists. What are you seeing that most
• 1:23:27
  people don't see? Probably a hair comb.
• 1:23:31
  That's probably something that that Channel, the channel will
• 1:23:34
  throw in there. Let me on a more serious note,
• 1:23:37
  let me let me talk a little bit more about you know, why
• 1:23:39
  YouTube, why Bitcoin? This all tied back to Bitcoin at
• 1:23:42
  the end, but I think you kind of nailed it.
• 1:23:44
  The internet's fundamentally changed the game.
• 1:23:47
  My entire thesis of my book is kind of making the sovereign
• 1:23:51
  individual more digestible. So we've lived through like 3
• 1:23:56
  major technological transitions or revolutions that completely
• 1:24:00
  changed society. When the agricultural revolution
• 1:24:03
  started about 10,000 years ago, for the first time in human
• 1:24:06
  history, we had excess, we created capital, we had wheat,
• 1:24:09
  grain, we developed money. And this is all because of the
• 1:24:13
  agricultural revolution, centralized society.
• 1:24:16
  When we started creating machines that helped us grow
• 1:24:19
  food and pick food, we fundamentally changed.
• 1:24:22
  We transitioned from hunters and gatherers, which we did for
• 1:24:25
  hundreds of thousands of years, and we completely changed and we
• 1:24:28
  centralized into these agricultural societies.
• 1:24:31
  If you wanted jobs, if you wanted wealth, you went and
• 1:24:34
  lived in the villages with the kings and the Queens.
• 1:24:37
  Then the Industrial Revolution came about about 10,000 years
• 1:24:41
  later in the 1770s. This completely changed society
• 1:24:44
  once again. If you wanted a job, you had to
• 1:24:46
  move to the big mega cities like London, New York.
• 1:24:51
  You had to move to where the machines and the factories were.
• 1:24:54
  And this is what created the 9:00 to 5:00.
• 1:24:56
  Again. So many people think the 9:00 to
• 1:24:58
  5:00 is normal, but it's literally like a 150 year
• 1:25:03
  phenomena. The idea of working in an office
• 1:25:06
  or working on a factory machine line.
• 1:25:08
  It's 150 years old. It's existed for like 0.0, 005
• 1:25:14
  percent of Homo sapiens existence, which is the wild
• 1:25:18
  thing. And now we're living through
• 1:25:20
  that next big technological transition that the book The
• 1:25:23
  Sovereign Individual calls the transition from the industrial
• 1:25:26
  era into the information era. And this one's interesting
• 1:25:30
  because for the first time in human history, this is a
• 1:25:32
  decentralized revolution. I don't have to move to the
• 1:25:36
  agricultural villages for economic opportunities.
• 1:25:38
  I don't have to move and get centralized in these big cities
• 1:25:43
  like London and New York for the economic opportunities.
• 1:25:46
  I can work from anywhere around the world on a laptop.
• 1:25:49
  And very importantly, if I provide value, I can capture a
• 1:25:54
  market. I can get paid for providing
• 1:25:56
  value to society. So this is kind of like my whole
• 1:26:00
  thesis for starting a YouTube channel and talking about the
• 1:26:03
  things I talk about. Firstly, I just love Bitcoin and
• 1:26:06
  I think it's the most important technology.
• 1:26:09
  It's the most humanitarian technology in human history.
• 1:26:12
  So I think it's going to help more people than anything else.
• 1:26:16
  But I think it's the most important thing to understand
• 1:26:18
  because this is the biggest technological transition we've
• 1:26:21
  lived through. And my like entire thesis like
• 1:26:25
  for YouTube is you just got to do something that's hard.
• 1:26:29
  You've got to do like again, this is where you know, supply
• 1:26:32
  and demand comes into things. It's very easy to make a highly
• 1:26:36
  edited, highly produced 62nd video and make it very
• 1:26:40
  entertaining. You can get a lot of views doing
• 1:26:43
  that or talking about crypto or trading or get rich quick
• 1:26:47
  schemes. You can get a lot of views by
• 1:26:49
  making entertaining content. This is what Mr. Beast does.
• 1:26:52
  He makes entertaining content and it's great, but how much
• 1:26:56
  value do you actually provide? That's the bigger question.
• 1:26:59
  And This is why I like to make educational content, because it
• 1:27:03
  actually helps people improve their lives.
• 1:27:04
  Of course, Nico, you know this. It's not the most profitable.
• 1:27:08
  You certainly don't make the most amount of money.
• 1:27:11
  You certainly don't get the most virality.
• 1:27:13
  If we were doing what we were doing for views or money, we'd
• 1:27:17
  be talking about something completely different.
• 1:27:19
  Educational content is not where the money is, but you can still
• 1:27:23
  make a lot of money and escape gate your 9:00 to 5:00 if you
• 1:27:27
  are operating in a blue ocean. Again, there's an amazing book
• 1:27:31
  Blue Ocean Strategy. Essentially, you want to go and
• 1:27:35
  provide value in a region where there's no competitors.
• 1:27:39
  And in the Bitcoin only educational arena, there is
• 1:27:43
  nobody making Bitcoin only educational, which is why Nico
• 1:27:47
  and I do what we do. We like to educate people about
• 1:27:49
  Bitcoin, not only because we love Bitcoin, but because
• 1:27:52
  there's nobody else doing it. Somebody has to do it.
• 1:27:55
  Somebody has to provide value. And when somebody does provide
• 1:27:58
  value, that is where it can become profitable.
• 1:28:02
  So again, this is kind of like the the whole thesis here on
• 1:28:06
  YouTube. Like again, something else
• 1:28:08
  that's interesting about the transition from the industrial
• 1:28:11
  age and the information age is in the industrial age there was
• 1:28:15
  no opportunity for somebody to make outsize returns by working
• 1:28:19
  in a nine to five office or a corporate job or working as a
• 1:28:23
  cog in a machine on a factory line.
• 1:28:26
  The normal, you know, income, it followed like a bell curve
• 1:28:29
  distribution. So the majority of the people,
• 1:28:32
  66% of people on each side of the bell curve, they pretty much
• 1:28:36
  earn the same amount of money. It's very difficult to earn that
• 1:28:39
  outsized return when you're working in industrial era jobs.
• 1:28:44
  Now this holds true for everything.
• 1:28:46
  This holds true for lawyers, engineers, doctors.
• 1:28:50
  I had a look the other day like 60 to 70% of all doctors earn
• 1:28:54
  between like 250 and 400 KA year.
• 1:28:57
  I mean, yes, it's great, but you once you take taxes on top of
• 1:29:00
  that, it's it's very difficult to get seriously rich just
• 1:29:04
  working in these industrial era jobs.
• 1:29:06
  It follows a bell curve distribution.
• 1:29:08
  And this is where digital jobs is probably not the best word
• 1:29:14
  for it, but jobs in the digital age, creating content, helping
• 1:29:18
  other people create content. This is completely different
• 1:29:22
  income. In this, it follows something
• 1:29:24
  like a power law when 90% of the capital or 90% of the economic
• 1:29:30
  opportunities, it's paid to the top 10% in that industry.
• 1:29:35
  So again, if you find somewhere where there's no competition and
• 1:29:38
  you're in the top 10% just by de facto 90% of all of the economic
• 1:29:43
  opportunities and income distribution, it goes to the top
• 1:29:46
  10%. So This is why out of the
• 1:29:49
  world's richest people look at them.
• 1:29:51
  What do they all do? Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, Bill
• 1:29:55
  Gates, what do they all do? They create digital companies in
• 1:29:58
  the digital age. The reason why the rich are
• 1:30:01
  getting richer, it is because the monetary system is broken.
• 1:30:06
  But that's not the only thing we're living through today.
• 1:30:08
  We're living through a technological transition where
• 1:30:10
  people work in the 9:00 to 5:00 jobs.
• 1:30:12
  They're, it's very difficult for them to earn 100K or 200K or 500
• 1:30:16
  KA year. But all of those opportunities
• 1:30:19
  are in the digital age. So again, I could talk about
• 1:30:21
  this for an hour. It's like the whole thesis of my
• 1:30:23
  book. But I, I think it's, I think
• 1:30:25
  it's an, an interesting concept to ponder if you are about to go
• 1:30:30
  to university for eight years to become a doctor.
• 1:30:31
  I I just that's not the way to succeed in the information age.
• 1:30:35
  100% and, and and, and I'll, and I'll drop some some tidbits for
• 1:30:40
  you guys. Like the most successful people
• 1:30:45
  of my generation, so like early 30s and below in Bitcoin, they
• 1:30:50
  all have one thing in common. They're all college dropouts,
• 1:30:53
  every single one, right, myself included.
• 1:30:57
  Like if I were to look back on like one of my best career
• 1:31:01
  decisions, it was dropping out of school and going all in
• 1:31:03
  Bitcoin. And of course that led to first
• 1:31:06
  it was mining. I wish I would have stuck to
• 1:31:07
  that. And then it eventually it was
• 1:31:09
  content creation, right? So, but again, it's what Luke
• 1:31:12
  was talking about where you have these asymmetric opportunities
• 1:31:17
  that, you know, normally you wouldn't find them.
• 1:31:19
  And the Internet is, there's so many of them on the Internet.
• 1:31:24
  But The thing is, they don't teach you this at school.
• 1:31:27
  That's why it's This is why it's so it's so valuable the to, to
• 1:31:34
  hone on, hone in on these hone in on these skills because
• 1:31:39
  anything that they teach at school, it's gonna be
• 1:31:42
  commoditized, right? So like basically like it's
• 1:31:45
  gonna have a value to it because essentially there's a factory,
• 1:31:49
  right, that is producing people that are, you know, I don't want
• 1:31:55
  to, that's a very bad way of saying it.
• 1:31:57
  But basically like, you know, that there's going to be a
• 1:31:59
  certain amount of people with that skill set that are going to
• 1:32:03
  be joining the labor force on a yearly basis.
• 1:32:06
  You know that, right? That's what the universities do.
• 1:32:09
  But there's so many skills online that there is.
• 1:32:13
  You cannot go to school to learn YouTube.
• 1:32:16
  The only way you learn YouTube is by putting in the years and
• 1:32:21
  learning the platform. And then all of a sudden I could
• 1:32:24
  tell you, I, I will tell you in 30 seconds.
• 1:32:27
  I'm like, if I look at someone, I say that that person knows
• 1:32:30
  what he's doing. He's a YouTube.
• 1:32:31
  I can literally tell you, but it's because I've put in the
• 1:32:35
  time to learn the platform, right?
• 1:32:37
  And again, this applies to X. This applies to YouTube, this
• 1:32:40
  applies to Rumble, this applies to Instagram, This applies to
• 1:32:43
  whatever. I mean, look, you guys saw the
• 1:32:46
  fight the other day, you had one on Rumble and you had one on I
• 1:32:51
  think it was Netflix or something, Logan Paul, I mean,
• 1:32:55
  he lost, but he made 10s of millions of dollars off of that
• 1:33:01
  fight. How did he even get himself in
• 1:33:03
  that situation in the 1st place? He got, he built a massive
• 1:33:07
  following. That's all he did, right?
• 1:33:10
  And then of course, he built this massive following and all,
• 1:33:13
  all of his followers want to see him get in a fight and stuff
• 1:33:16
  like that. They hyped it up.
• 1:33:18
  That's what I'm talking about. And that's what Luke's talking
• 1:33:21
  about with asymmetric opportunities because of the
• 1:33:24
  Internet and the Internet has enabled this.
• 1:33:27
  There's so many of them and it's just a matter of you
• 1:33:31
  capitalizing on them. And again, there's no, you can't
• 1:33:34
  go to school for this, right? That's the thing that I have to
• 1:33:37
  tell everybody. Like you can't just go to
• 1:33:39
  university, get a four year degree and then apply to a job.
• 1:33:44
  And then no, no, no, you have to take action.
• 1:33:46
  You have to take agency. You have to take the risk and
• 1:33:49
  the confidence in yourself and the naivety to do it.
• 1:33:52
  Because if, if, if this Nico told old Nico five years ago all
• 1:33:57
  the bullshit he had to go through, I would have been like,
• 1:34:00
  maybe, maybe I would have done something different.
• 1:34:03
  But if you power through it, sometimes it pays off.
• 1:34:06
  And of course, there's always ebbs and flows, there's ups and
• 1:34:09
  downs. But again, I think it's all
• 1:34:13
  worth it at the end of the day. And it's in Luke's, It's in
• 1:34:16
  Luke's bio, right, a nine to five escape artist, right?
• 1:34:19
  It's about escaping that whole 9:00 to 5:00.
• 1:34:21
  Because again, guys like, think about it, you only live once,
• 1:34:25
  right? You have one life and you know,
• 1:34:28
  you're working ages or between the ages of 20 and then mid 60s.
• 1:34:33
  Do you really want to spend that under, you know, fluorescent
• 1:34:36
  lighting, like, you know, in a, in a cubicle?
• 1:34:39
  Like, do you really want like, I think of that and I'm like,
• 1:34:41
  dude, that, that sounds terrible.
• 1:34:43
  And again, I'm if you do do that, I'm not speaking I'll of
• 1:34:46
  you. You got to speak, you got to to
• 1:34:47
  feed your family, you got to do what you got to do.
• 1:34:50
  But again, you know, there's other options in this day and
• 1:34:55
  age. And it's because of the
• 1:34:57
  Internet. Before the Internet, none of
• 1:34:59
  those opportunities existed. And if you do have an
• 1:35:03
  entrepreneurial bone in your body, if you do feel like you're
• 1:35:06
  not contempt with what you do. Some people love what they do,
• 1:35:09
  right? The Internet is the way out.
• 1:35:12
  I'll leave it at that. Anyways, if you guys enjoyed
• 1:35:15
  today's show, you just, you know what to do.
• 1:35:16
  Smash the like button. Consider subscribing.
• 1:35:19
  Go check out Luke's channel. Go stay tuned for his book
• 1:35:22
  that's going to be dropping very, very soon.
• 1:35:24
  Guys, we love you. We'll be back tomorrow for a
• 1:35:26
  brand new episode of Simply Bitcoin Live.
• 1:35:30
  Today's episode was brought to you by bitcoinwell.com, a
• 1:35:33
  Bitcoin only platform on a mission to enable financial
• 1:35:36
  independence.