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Is This the Final Bitcoin Crash Before All Time Highs? | Simply SatoSHE · Simply Bitcoin

• 0:00
  A lot of people think Bitcoin is being suppressed because of how
• 0:03
  boring the price is. Remember the movie The Big
• 0:06
  Short? That one would help explain
• 0:09
  what's going on. We probably all feel like
• 0:11
  Michael Bury. Remember the guy who predicted
• 0:14
  the 2008 housing crisis? What people may not know is he
• 0:18
  actually thought it was going to happen in 2007.
• 0:21
  And for a while there, nothing happened.
• 0:24
  He waited. The world called him crazy.
• 0:27
  Yeah, I may have been early, but I'm not.
• 0:29
  Wrong. But then 2008 hit and all hell
• 0:33
  broke loose just like he said it would, and he got the biggest
• 0:38
  check of his life to all of our unfortunate demise.
• 0:41
  Right now, Bitcoin feels like it's in purgatory.
• 0:45
  Lots of yelling, lots of predictions, and an awful lot of
• 0:48
  silence and confusion about what comes next.
• 0:51
  Today, I'm going to show you why we're almost at the finish line
• 0:55
  and why the confusion and the boredom in the markets might
• 0:59
  just be the final shakeout. Let's dive into what comes next.
• 1:08
  On the surface, the fundamentals are screaming bullish
• 1:12
  institutions are quietly scooping up supply, ETFs are
• 1:16
  absorbing coins faster than their mind, and governments are
• 1:19
  reshaping monetary rules. But on the screens, flatline
• 1:25
  boredom. Exhaustion.
• 1:28
  It feels broken not because Bitcoin failed.
• 1:31
  It feels broken because the system around us is breaking.
• 1:36
  We don't feel the top because the ground beneath us is
• 1:40
  realigning. This might be the exact moment
• 1:43
  that pushes us to our psychological limits.
• 1:45
  Because after everything stops shaking, the next thing we might
• 1:50
  wake up to is orange sky. We're back.
• 1:58
  On paper, the story looks impossible to argue with.
• 2:02
  On one hand, big institutions have moved from watching to
• 2:06
  buying. Spot ETFs are pulling in more
• 2:09
  Bitcoin than miners are producing, and Bitcoin treasury
• 2:12
  companies now exist at a scale nobody would have believed a few
• 2:16
  years ago. And yet the price is barely
• 2:19
  moving. People showed up expecting
• 2:22
  fireworks and instead got the first act of an avant-garde mime
• 2:26
  show. That disconnect is what's
• 2:28
  driving everyone insane, including myself.
• 2:31
  The fundamentals are yelling this is huge while the price is
• 2:36
  barely reacting, so it's no wonder people feel like
• 2:40
  something is broken. The old system that used to
• 2:44
  create volatility is recalibrating in the background.
• 2:47
  And the worst part? Wall Street doesn't need hype to
• 2:50
  win. They can buy quietly while
• 2:53
  retail burns energy, money, and patience for a breakout.
• 2:58
  There's a fatigue in the market that we haven't felt before.
• 3:02
  It almost feels intentional, like the goal is to shake out
• 3:06
  the cans before the real move begins.
• 3:09
  This is remarkable. This price action is great and I
• 3:12
  think Q4 is going to be great. But it's only going to be great
• 3:16
  for you if you can survive the pull backs and survive the
• 3:21
  boring periods and survive the sell in maze and go aways and
• 3:24
  all of the traditional triadfy bullshit that have been driving
• 3:28
  traditional markets. And most Bitcoin is con.
• 3:31
  So they're going to get screwed. And I'm here for it because I
• 3:35
  want them to get screwed. I want every bitcoiner that
• 3:38
  can't handle it to get their Bitcoin taken away.
• 3:41
  Go trade meme coins. What are you doing here?
• 3:44
  You got the hardest asset humanity has ever created and
• 3:47
  gold pumps 40% and you're like selling your Bitcoin now sell
• 3:52
  it. I want, I love it.
• 3:54
  Sell it, sell it to BlackRock. It's great.
• 3:56
  So. That's interesting.
• 3:58
  So. Trad Phi.
• 4:00
  Is trying to squeeze you out by. Boring you to.
• 4:03
  Death. That's.
• 4:03
  What they? Always do.
• 4:05
  That's basically what I'm understanding.
• 4:07
  They've got 2 tricks, they've got 2 tricks, and they've got 2
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  tricks forever. It's boredom and over leverage.
• 4:14
  That's it. Stradfi has no other tricks.
• 4:17
  If you can get over boredom and over leverage, you win.
• 4:21
  Markets will either bore you to tears or scare you out.
• 4:25
  Right now, they're trying to shake us out by putting us to
• 4:27
  sleep. The means feel stale,
• 4:30
  influencers continue to recycle old news, and the average holder
• 4:35
  checks the chart like it owes them an apology.
• 4:38
  Listen to Warren Buffett's thoughts on this.
• 4:41
  You don't have to make any decisions you have to make.
• 4:43
  Nothing is forced upon you. So you there are no no called
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  strikes in the business. The pitcher just stands there
• 4:48
  and throws balls at you. And if you're playing real
• 4:51
  baseball and it's between the knees and the shoulders, you
• 4:53
  either swing or you got a strike call on.
• 4:55
  You have to get too many call on here.
• 4:56
  You're out in the securities business.
• 4:58
  You sit there and they throw US Steel at 25 and they throw
• 5:02
  General Motors at 68 and you don't have to swing at any of
• 5:04
  them. They may be wonderful pitches to
• 5:06
  swing at, but if you don't know enough, you don't have to swing
• 5:09
  and you can sit there and watch thousands of pitches and finally
• 5:12
  you get one right there where you want it, something that you
• 5:14
  understand, and then you swing and the.
• 5:16
  So you might not swing for. Six months, you might not swing
• 5:18
  for two years. Isn't that boring?
• 5:20
  It would it would bore most people.
• 5:22
  And, and certainly boredom is a is, is a problem with most
• 5:26
  professional money managers. If they, if they, if they try to
• 5:29
  sit out an inning or two, not only do they get somewhat antsy,
• 5:33
  but their clients are start yelling, they start yelling
• 5:35
  swing you bum, you know, from the, from the stands.
• 5:37
  And that's very tough for people to do.
• 5:38
  Let there be no doubt in your mind that the exhaustion is
• 5:43
  tactical. Time preference is a weapon.
• 5:45
  If the system can turn your conviction into exhaustion, it
• 5:49
  wins access to your coins without ever admitting defeat.
• 5:52
  This isn't purely conspirational, it's behavioral
• 5:56
  finance, ETFs and financial infrastructure.
• 6:00
  Let big players accumulate without creating panic.
• 6:03
  They don't need a short term spike to say we won, they just
• 6:08
  need you to stop believing, and when your belief fades, the
• 6:17
  coins are easier to collect. So the real battle right now is
• 6:21
  psychological focus, patience, and the stubborn refusal to
• 6:26
  equate short term flatness with failure.
• 6:29
  Most people live as if time is their enemy.
• 6:33
  They rush, chase and grind constantly trying to outrun the
• 6:37
  clock. But the truth is, time is only
• 6:41
  your enemy when you're out of alignment with it.
• 6:44
  When you live with a high time preference mindset, always
• 6:48
  needing instant results, you're fighting the natural flow of
• 6:51
  reality. You're burning your energy in
• 6:54
  resistance. That's the treadmill most people
• 6:57
  are on, running faster but going nowhere.
• 7:01
  Bitcoin taught me something profound.
• 7:03
  When you align with truth and patience, time starts working
• 7:07
  for you. Think about it.
• 7:10
  Bitcoin doesn't rush. It doesn't hustle.
• 7:13
  It just keeps producing one block every 10 minutes.
• 7:17
  Steady, predictable, unstoppable.
• 7:21
  And because of that consistency, it compounds value over years,
• 7:25
  not days. That's the difference between
• 7:28
  force and flow, between trying to make things happen now, first
• 7:33
  trusting the process and letting the proof of work unfold.
• 7:38
  When you tap into that rhythm, your nervous system relaxes.
• 7:42
  You stop gripping so tightly, you realize everything in nature
• 7:46
  grows at its own pace. The oak tree doesn't rush to
• 7:51
  become a forest. The ocean doesn't hurry its
• 7:54
  waves. The sun doesn't apologize for
• 7:58
  only rising once a day. Time becomes your ally when you
• 8:03
  stop trying to manipulate it and start synchronizing with it.
• 8:07
  When your actions are rooted in truth, consistency, and
• 8:10
  patience, time amplifies them exponentially.
• 8:15
  That's the real secret of freedom.
• 8:17
  You no longer live in a constant state of urgency.
• 8:21
  You live in timelessness. You flow with reality instead of
• 8:25
  against it. So slow down.
• 8:29
  Align your work, your health, your money, and your mind with
• 8:33
  principles that endure. Then step back, because once
• 8:38
  time is working for you, you can finally get off the treadmill
• 8:42
  and start moving forward. Take a deep breath and go back
• 8:48
  to day one. Feel the stillness.
• 8:51
  Remember why you started this path.
• 8:54
  Scarcity, Scarcity, decentralization.
• 8:57
  Decentralization, censorship resistance, censorship
• 9:01
  resistance, Predictability. Predictability.
• 9:05
  As the world's money printer hums louder and governments
• 9:09
  chase control, return to that breath, that math, that
• 9:14
  certainty. This is grounding in its purest
• 9:17
  form. 21,000,021 million. Steady, steady, unshaken,
• 9:23
  unshaken. Did I just get high off my own
• 9:28
  opium? Maybe a little, no.
• 9:33
  This sideways market is testing something deeper than account
• 9:37
  balances. It's testing time, preference,
• 9:40
  and faith in math over narrative.
• 9:43
  The math doesn't change when the headlines do.
• 9:45
  The protocol still issues the same tiny, immutable supply of
• 9:50
  coins per block. Remember that this stillness is
• 9:53
  not the enemy. It's the screening process that
• 9:56
  tells you how much you really want to be part of the future
• 10:00
  you imagined message. And now before we dive into our
• 10:05
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• 10:10
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• 10:15
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  Learn more at learn dot leaden dot IO slash Simply now let's
• 12:13
  get back to the show. OK, so how do we turn this
• 12:18
  boredom back into conviction? How do we hold on for dear life
• 12:22
  when everything is asking us to? Fold And the number one thing
• 12:26
  people keep saying is, you know, I'm just late.
• 12:30
  I'm late to the game and I love the this is a new idea.
• 12:36
  Is thinking you're late to Bitcoin is an ego test.
• 12:40
  It's just your ego fooling with you because late.
• 12:45
  Late to who? Bitcoin.
• 12:47
  There is no one taking attendance.
• 12:50
  Bitcoin doesn't. Bitcoin isn't even a human, it's
• 12:53
  a piece of software. It can't take attendance, it
• 12:55
  doesn't know time, it has no idea when you showed up.
• 12:58
  It doesn't even give a shit about who you are so late to
• 13:02
  who? Oh, late.
• 13:04
  When you compare yourself to other people, late.
• 13:07
  When you compare yourself to your friends or to your
• 13:10
  siblings, that's what you're late.
• 13:13
  So Bitcoin is an ego test. I loved that as well.
• 13:17
  So I think it's a litmus test. It's an ego test.
• 13:20
  If you're willing to say, you know what, it is the hardest,
• 13:23
  best thing for me to own. And it doesn't matter if I owned
• 13:26
  it later or earlier than any other person.
• 13:28
  That's not what life's about. Life's about being a great
• 13:32
  person and contributing to the future.
• 13:35
  And yeah, storing my, my wealth and something hard.
• 13:39
  But I found that interesting too, because the number one
• 13:41
  thing you get from no coiners is I'm late.
• 13:44
  It's like, oh, and you're not late, you're insecure.
• 13:48
  It's, it's, it's, it's an ego test.
• 13:51
  It's it Bitcoin doesn't take attendance.
• 13:54
  It doesn't even know who you are.
• 13:55
  So you're not late, you're insecure.
• 13:57
  So as soon as you can fix whatever's going on inside of
• 14:00
  you, you can own Bitcoin. And Bitcoin will reward you for
• 14:03
  that. We all get the Michael Bury
• 14:06
  feeling right now, early and mocked.
• 14:09
  You would have bet against the housing.
• 14:11
  Market Why? Those bonds only fail if
• 14:15
  millions of Americans don't pay their mortgages.
• 14:17
  That's never happened in history.
• 14:20
  Excuse me, Doctor Barry. It seems like a foolish
• 14:21
  investment based on. Prevailing sentiment of.
• 14:25
  The market. Banks and popular culture, yes,
• 14:28
  it's a foolish. Investment.
• 14:29
  But. Everyone's wrong.
• 14:36
  But history rewards the patient. Burry's trade was obvious once
• 14:41
  the system collapsed. Hindsight is 2020, of course.
• 14:44
  The problem was wading through the cinema of denial.
• 14:49
  Bitcoiners are living the same act early, lonely and surrounded
• 14:54
  by skeptics who will happily explain why it won't work.
• 14:58
  There's a moral here, and it isn't complexity.
• 15:01
  It's conviction. In the big short story, timing
• 15:04
  doesn't disprove the thesis. This it delayed the payoff.
• 15:08
  The same is true here. You don't need to be a profit,
• 15:11
  you just need to be stubbornly present.
• 15:15
  As we go into yet another cycle, people that were here in the
• 15:19
  first and second cycle who have a significant number of the
• 15:22
  coins, their conviction in this upcoming cycle isn't just
• 15:28
  stronger or like twice as strong, it might be 100 times
• 15:32
  stronger. And that conviction is something
• 15:35
  that for people that are maybe watching from the outside, they
• 15:39
  cannot even comprehend why a person has that much conviction
• 15:43
  and, and why they're watching the price move, call it 5000 or
• 15:47
  whatever. I mean, it was down at 26.
• 15:50
  So it's even more than that. People with a lot of conviction
• 15:54
  are looking at this and they're saying, OK, well, I guess it's
• 15:56
  just getting started. We're in another cycle.
• 15:59
  This thing could go to a hundred 500,000.
• 16:02
  And it's just like, OK, that's what it does.
• 16:05
  And my basis is in the hundreds or 5 bucks per coin or whatever.
• 16:11
  And those are the people who are squatting on a lot of coins.
• 16:14
  And so they're, to Glenn's point, if you're coming into
• 16:18
  this for the first time and you're trying to understand why
• 16:22
  the, the price moves like this, it moves like this because it's
• 16:25
  actually scarce. Nobody can manipulate it.
• 16:28
  And the people who hold a lion's share of the coins, they're not
• 16:32
  ever selling them. Michael Saylor had a really
• 16:35
  interesting poll that he that he posted on Twitter today and he
• 16:40
  said how high will BTC need the rise before you would consider
• 16:44
  selling a small portion of your Bitcoin?
• 16:46
  And he had different prices. He had 100,250 thousand 500,000
• 16:51
  and a million to never being the 4th category.
• 16:54
  And 29% of the people that responded to the poll said that
• 16:58
  they would sell some of their Bitcoin at 100,000.
• 17:02
  And so for if you're an outsider or you're new to this and you're
• 17:04
  looking at that and you're saying, all right, so that's
• 17:06
  going to induce some variance or volatility in the price.
• 17:11
  Like maybe once we get to 100,000, it may and it might do
• 17:14
  it for the speculators there for a little bit.
• 17:17
  But what I would challenge people to really kind of think
• 17:20
  maybe at a second derivative of that is if you had to take, if
• 17:25
  you had the market weight, those percentages with how many
• 17:29
  Bitcoin do those people hold? I would tell you that the people
• 17:32
  who are voting for 100,000 that they'll sell some of their
• 17:36
  position are people who hold miniscule position sizes.
• 17:40
  And the people who have really large position size as far as
• 17:44
  the outstanding inventory are the ones that are saying a
• 17:46
  million or never. And So what do you think is
• 17:48
  going to drive the price? The price is going to be driven
• 17:51
  by these deeply convicted. I'm not selling these coins
• 17:54
  until I can, you know, buy some equity at like APE of five and
• 17:58
  they're denominating Bitcoin on their balance sheet type people
• 18:01
  because they know what they own. One last thing before we close,
• 18:04
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• 18:08
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• 18:44
  If you're feeling despair or doubt, lean into it, but don't
• 18:49
  stay there. Despair is a signal that
• 18:52
  something important is changing. The system that taught us to
• 18:55
  trust inflation, leverage and short term gains is breaking.
• 19:00
  That's the reality, and that's painful.
• 19:03
  It's also the moment that we have been stacking for.
• 19:06
  You don't have to be perfect at timing.
• 19:09
  You don't have to be loud. You just have to hold.
• 19:14
  Conviction is forged in the quiet places where everyone
• 19:17
  expects fireworks. So hold a little longer, stack a
• 19:21
  little more, and remember when the earth stops reconfiguring,
• 19:25
  the sky looks bluer, or in our case, orangier than you
• 19:30
  imagined. Comment below what made you buy
• 19:32
  Bitcoin in the 1st place and what keeps you holding?
• 19:35
  Now I'll read the best ones on the next show.
• 19:37
  That's all for today's episode. Thank you so much for watching
• 19:41
  Simply Bitcoins Satoshi Stack. Slay and stay bullish baby, now
• 19:47
  more than ever.