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Should PM Trudeau go for a walk in the snow (resign)? · Kvetch & Release

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: There is news coming out of Ottawa with a caucus
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: revolt or a mini caucus revolt of thirty to forty
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: liberal MPs taking publicly or at least publicly behind closed
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: doors to media off the record so they can't be
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: named publicly, going after the Prime Minister saying justin it's
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: time for you to take a walk in the snow.
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: Just when you think that you've hit the bottom, a
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: trapdoor opens up, leading to brand new depths to plummet
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: further downward. Two joining me to discuss is the head
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: of the political science department at the University of Windsor,
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: and full disclosure, my former professor, doctor Lydia Milgen, joins
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  Speaker 1: me now on AM eight hundred CKLW. Doctor Milgon. Things
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: are not looking good.
• 0:57
  Speaker 2: Their fortune started, obviously, started to say when the Conservatives
• 1:01
  Speaker 2: chose Pera Paula as their leader. And I remember, you know,
• 1:03
  Speaker 2: back when you know they've may call first the pronouncements
• 1:06
  Speaker 2: they thought they were going to get, you know, five
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  Speaker 2: points in the polls every quarter. I think they're down
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  Speaker 2: five rather than up anything. It's a big risk. And
• 1:16
  Speaker 2: there's also the timing thing, right, so they're running out
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  Speaker 2: of time. The next selection has to be next October,
• 1:22
  Speaker 2: so they have a year, which isn't you know. I
• 1:24
  Speaker 2: think that's what the MP's are thinking. It's like, if
• 1:26
  Speaker 2: you if you resign now parole parliament, let us have
• 1:29
  Speaker 2: a leadership race at least gives the new leader a
• 1:32
  Speaker 2: chance to set up the brand and to set up
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  Speaker 2: their team. You don't want to do it like the
• 1:37
  Speaker 2: Conservatives did under Brian mulrooney and wait too long. And so,
• 1:41
  Speaker 2: you know, that was the scenario when Kim Campbell was selected,
• 1:44
  Speaker 2: and you know, initially it seemed to be a great choice,
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  Speaker 2: the first female prime minister. She had, you know, a
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  Speaker 2: lot of social issues that she had, you know, brought
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  Speaker 2: the party in with you know, she could talk to talk,
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  Speaker 2: she had experienced. But it was not enough for them
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  Speaker 2: to get the campaign going. Basically, they just took the
• 2:03
  Speaker 2: campaign that mulrooney had planned and just plopped Kim Campbell
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  Speaker 2: on it, and as we know, that led to the
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  Speaker 2: worst electoral defeat in Canadian history.
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: Well, this is what we saw happen right now with
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: Aaron O'Toole to peer paulv Right. A complete change of platform,
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  Speaker 1: a complete different tone of things, and that's what the
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  Speaker 1: audience really seemed to like, yeah, I.
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  Speaker 2: Mean the thing is yeah, but it's also giving the
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  Speaker 2: person time. I mean, the thing of peer Paul v
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  Speaker 2: is now he has he has the luxury of having
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  Speaker 2: a year of trying out his lines, of working on
• 2:37
  Speaker 2: his team, and you know, their campaign is pretty much settled.
• 2:40
  Speaker 2: It's very hard to throw in a new leader when
• 2:44
  Speaker 2: you're this late in the game and try to put
• 2:46
  Speaker 2: a fresh face on it. I mean, you know, so
• 2:47
  Speaker 2: who's go And then the question is who would be
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  Speaker 2: that leader? Right, clearly, anybody within cabinet is probably toxic.
• 2:54
  Speaker 2: I can't imagine them doing any better than Trudeau and
• 2:58
  Speaker 2: the Conservatives has been very good at attacking the likely
• 3:02
  Speaker 2: heir apparent, which is Mark Conny, you know, basically pointing
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  Speaker 2: out some of his conflicts, the fact that he's he's
• 3:09
  Speaker 2: you know, not declaring conflicts, that the fact that his
• 3:12
  Speaker 2: company's you know, robbying the government at the same time
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  Speaker 2: he's advising the Liberals and there's a lot of land
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  Speaker 2: minds there. So would he do any better?
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: I doubt it. Well, then I guess here's the next question.
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: If we can't come to an agreement or on who
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  Speaker 1: would be the person to replace. Do we think that
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  Speaker 1: the Prime minister will step down?
• 3:34
  Speaker 2: H Well, I thought he should have stepped down in February.
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  Speaker 2: I mean that when I was, you know, thinking about
• 3:38
  Speaker 2: this last year, I thought February would have been the
• 3:41
  Speaker 2: sort of the great symbolic time. He could have done
• 3:44
  Speaker 2: his walk in the snow sort of mirrord his father,
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  Speaker 2: given the party a chance to get a leadership brace
• 3:49
  Speaker 2: and have the new leader in place. At least by
• 3:51
  Speaker 2: now he's got an ego, so you know, this could
• 3:55
  Speaker 2: be a Biden thing where you know, it's just like
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  Speaker 2: Biden said, I'm not going anywhere. That's a Trudeau is saying.
• 4:00
  Speaker 2: But he could be be pushed. And we've seen other
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  Speaker 2: prime ministers who were far more popular, didn't have nearly
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  Speaker 2: as bad poll numbers, get pushed out. And I'm thinking
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  Speaker 2: Jean Certenda pushed out after winning three majority back to
• 4:11
  Speaker 2: back government, far more successful than Justin Trudeau. And but
• 4:16
  Speaker 2: again it was an internal struggle and it was people
• 4:19
  Speaker 2: within the party who wanted a different leader, which was
• 4:21
  Speaker 2: Paul Martin. I don't know if they have anybody there
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  Speaker 2: right now, so it's very problematic. I think the question
• 4:27
  Speaker 2: of who would be the leader I think is seizing
• 4:30
  Speaker 2: them more than whether or not he should resign. He's
• 4:32
  Speaker 2: going to be gone the other year, who's going to
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  Speaker 2: be voted out? Or he's got to leave on his
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  Speaker 2: own accord. He just doesn't seem to be a person
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  Speaker 2: who likes to back away from a fight.
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  Speaker 1: So again, looking at the most recent Abacus polling, it's
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  Speaker 1: it's just it is a bloodbath for the Prime minister
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  Speaker 1: right now for the Liberals. I saw two hundred and
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  Speaker 1: twenty seats for the Conservatives if an election were held.
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  Speaker 1: I think it was on Thursday last week, which is
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  Speaker 1: what you need, one hundred and seventy one now under
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  Speaker 1: the new ridings.
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  Speaker 2: From one sight, I mean, so it's it's might be wrong.
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: It's regardless, it's a very large majority if it were
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  Speaker 1: to be held today. I wonder though, the Trump effect,
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  Speaker 1: that's the only thing I could think that could unseat
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  Speaker 1: the momentum that the Conservatives are seeing right now. Scare
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: the living daylights out of Canadians if Trump becomes president.
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  Speaker 1: Do you think that that could help the Prime Minister's
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  Speaker 1: electoral fortunes by being able to cast Pierre Paualiev and
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  Speaker 1: Trump in a similar light and say look at what
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  Speaker 1: North North America would look like.
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  Speaker 2: Well at work. So far, they've been trying, you know,
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  Speaker 2: like if it were working, they would have been up
• 5:37
  Speaker 2: in the polls. They've been trying to do that ever
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  Speaker 2: since PAULI have got into office, and and every time,
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  Speaker 2: you know, their polls go up. There's there's two things
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  Speaker 2: that the liberals will try artually three One is they're
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  Speaker 2: going to tie them with extremists, they're going to compare
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: them with Trump, or they're going to bring up the
• 5:52
  Speaker 2: abortion debate. They do it every single time, and Canadians
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  Speaker 2: aren't aren't They aren't buy it. They're not they're not
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  Speaker 2: taking the bait. So I've actually saw a recent poll
• 6:01
  Speaker 2: that more Canadians support Trump than they do Harris. I
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  Speaker 2: don't know a rogue internet poll, but it's not necessarily
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  Speaker 2: the case that there's a majority of Canadians who oppose Trump.
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  Speaker 2: And then the other problem is it's a different country,
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  Speaker 2: different scenarios, different personalities. It's a real stretch to compare
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  Speaker 2: Paula to Trump. I mean, they're not even the same,
• 6:25
  Speaker 2: anywhere close to being the same age, life experience. I mean,
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  Speaker 2: there's just you know, except that they both are right
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  Speaker 2: of center politicians, but Republicans are far more right of
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  Speaker 2: center than any conservative politician ever was.
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't know if that would be the silver
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  Speaker 1: bullet that could help change things. Last question, while I
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: have you, and then i'll let you go. Going back
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: to the idea of these thirty to forty liberal MPs
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: who are conspiring behind the back of the Prime minister, Obviously,
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: if he wanted to find out these names, he probably
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: already has them. Right, Let's be honest, it's a small call.
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  Speaker 1: It's a small enough caucus that he's got enough people
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  Speaker 1: that he's able to mustard together to get these answers.
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: Should the Prime Minister kick them out? Should he take
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: a defiant stance and say, if you don't want to
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: be here, get out, I'll kick you out and we
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: can move forward without you, show that he's strong. Would
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  Speaker 1: that help well?
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  Speaker 2: Then the next time the Conservatives to have a voter
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  Speaker 2: non confidence, they would topple the government. The numbers don't
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  Speaker 2: work otherwise, So that changes scenario completely, because then you
• 7:25
  Speaker 2: no longer need the Block or the NDP to vote
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  Speaker 2: with the Conservatives. All you need is these rogue politicians,
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  Speaker 2: especially if it's up to forty.
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: So it seems like for the Prime Minister, it's just
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  Speaker 1: it's a whole lot of bad options on the table
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  Speaker 1: that you're giving him. Yeah, well, not that you're giving him,
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  Speaker 1: but that's been laid out for him to choose. It's
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  Speaker 1: a buffet of bad options.
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  Speaker 2: It's bad facts, right, He's just got a buffet of
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  Speaker 2: bad facts and they're going to have to figure out
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  Speaker 2: a way to get out of it.
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: Now.
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  Speaker 2: Again, he's got lots of different things he can do,
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  Speaker 2: and I'll throw this one out. One thing he could
• 7:54
  Speaker 2: do is get rid of Katie Telford, because he's made
• 7:57
  Speaker 2: a lot of enemies within caucus, and so he could say, well,
• 8:01
  Speaker 2: I'm changing things at the top. I'm changing my chief
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  Speaker 2: of staff. She's been the longest serving chief of staff
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  Speaker 2: in the history of Canada, so you know, being in
• 8:08
  Speaker 2: that office for nine years is exception long. I mean
• 8:10
  Speaker 2: I remember Iam Brody, who was Harper's chief assess, saying
• 8:12
  Speaker 2: I lasted two years. That's a long enough time for me.
• 8:15
  Speaker 2: You need to shift your chiefs of staff. So that
• 8:18
  Speaker 2: could be one way for him to signal to the
• 8:20
  Speaker 2: caucus that they're changing direction, that they're not going to
• 8:22
  Speaker 2: be so tight because apparently the story is coming out
• 8:25
  Speaker 2: of the PMO is that it is really difficult to
• 8:28
  Speaker 2: get in touch with him, like Mark Garno couldn't have
• 8:30
  Speaker 2: face to face meetings with him, and he was Minister
• 8:33
  Speaker 2: of Foreign Affairs. Like that tells you how insulated he is.
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: For a prime minister who was elected under the auspices
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: of having a non centralized, open, transparent government. It's funny
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: how things always seem to go back the way that
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: they used to be. People like their power, don't they. Doctor.
• 8:52
  Speaker 2: Yeah, so anyways, and open by default certainly have not
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  Speaker 2: come to fruition.
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: Well, we will check back in with you again at
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: another point along this timeline right now the question being
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: should he step down? Who knows what the next question
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: is going to be. Doctor. It's always a pleasure to
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: chat with you.
• 9:09
  Speaker 2: Nice talking to you, John,