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The Favorites - NFL Week 14 Betting Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Volume podcast Network.
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: I am Chad Norman of the Action Network. Today is
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: our week fourteen episode. We're gonna break down the entire
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: slate of NFL games. We'll discuss our exact decision our
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: Sun says, will narrow down the options for our faves
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: to put into the Favorite Podcast one hundred thousand dollars
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: Pro Football Pick Them Contest three and two.
• 0:40
  Speaker 2: This week, folks, we bet on.
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: The Broncos last night at minus five and a half
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: specifically because we expected Jameis Winston to give it away. Alas,
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: that is exactly what happened, only not exactly as we
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: saw it plan out. We will unpack that quickly live
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: from our Tommy John Hume Studios. I'm joined as always
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: buying my co host, my companion Mike and Padre my
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: bff Professional Better mL So I am in.
• 1:08
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't think there's a quarterback better to us
• 1:10
  Speaker 3: in the league Chad than Jamis Winston. Like every time
• 1:13
  Speaker 3: we need him to show up for us, he shows
• 1:14
  Speaker 3: up in the biggest way. And I don't know if
• 1:16
  Speaker 3: you remember this, but was it four years ago. We
• 1:20
  Speaker 3: came in twenty fourth place. We basically need to go
• 1:22
  Speaker 3: five and zero in this contest whatever it was. Five
• 1:24
  Speaker 3: thousand people were in it, met Chad needed a five
• 1:26
  Speaker 3: and oh week, and our last game came down to
• 1:28
  Speaker 3: Winston versus Matt Ryan. We had the Landoms three and
• 1:31
  Speaker 3: a half, they're up three. Winston's driving and he threw
• 1:35
  Speaker 3: up pick six to go thirty for thirty in that
• 1:37
  Speaker 3: season with Tampa and got us to twenty fourth place,
• 1:40
  Speaker 3: which was like big money for us at that time.
• 1:42
  Speaker 3: So yeah, yeah, Jamis has always been good to us
• 1:45
  Speaker 3: with this pick sixes.
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: So look, we've talked about that. We're going to dig
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: into that in a second. I do want to say
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: I have very big news, very big news.
• 1:54
  Speaker 2: Are you ready. Yeah, I've mentioned this before.
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: It's no joke when I say that my beautiful bride
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: really has no idea what I do in my third
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: floor office. Honest to god, she's vaguely familiar that we
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: do a podcast, but she is supportive in the exact
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: right way. And Simon, it's a way that I want
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: someone to support you one day, my much much younger brother.
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: It's the way that I know Matt Mitchell, and his
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: brilliant and beautiful wife supports him as well. If I
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: say to my wife, let's leave our happy life in
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: New Jersey with close friends, two young kids, not too
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: far from her parents who are taking care of the
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: young kids all the time, so I can go be
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: edter in chief of a freaking magazine in the middle
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: of Connecticut, She's like, all right, that sounds good.
• 2:46
  Speaker 2: Did she read the magazine? Never?
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: Did I care, not at all when I said let's
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: leave ESPN and let's go start this kaka Maimi sports
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: betting media business that has a ninety five percent chance
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: of failure. Oh, by the way, I have to be
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: in New York City two nights a week. She was like, cool,
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: but does she.
• 3:06
  Speaker 2: Listen to our stuff? Not at all. It's all you need, simon.
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: You just need someone who says yes to the big
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: stuff and you don't sweat the small stuff. This past weekend,
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: I don't know what got into her, but she came
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: to me after walking the dog. She says, Hey, I
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: listened to your podcast. I'm like, oh, what'd you think?
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: And her response with classic she goes, I can see
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: why people like it. You guys are fun together. I
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: don't think we're going to get higher praise than that
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: from Stacy, who you've met. If nothing else, she knows
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: that we have a show that's big.
• 3:44
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm just shocked she actually listened to it.
• 3:47
  Speaker 2: I'm shocked too, and I'm happy to take it.
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: Then, by the way, she went back through previous episodes
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: to see if we ever talked about her. She was
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: disappointed to know that we hadn't. And the off chance
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: I'm not going to tell her on the off chance
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: she ever listens to the podcast again, maybe soon she
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: can listen to this episode know that she's been acknowledged.
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: There you go, as a reminder of the Favorites podcast
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: is presented by Bet three sixty five and now new
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: BED three six five. Customers get one hundred and fifty
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: dollars in bonus bets when you bet five dollars. Sign
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: up using promo code Favorites, deposit ten dollars place to
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: bet for five dollars to get one hundred and fifty
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: dollars in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more. Whatever the
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: moment it's never ordinary at bet three sixty five. Must
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: be twenty one or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, we're eighteen and older.
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: In Kentucky, gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler or
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: one eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms, conditions restrictions
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: apply all right quickly on the Jackson Broncos, because those
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: are two games we won this past weekend in which we,
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: on the surface got pretty lucky with back door covers, right,
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: the kind of games that we have not won much
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: this year, and it's worth noting how they were both
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: random and completely predictable. We thought the Jags, with Trevor
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: Lawrence as home dogs, brought in the division getting the
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: huk we're a good spot. Instead, it was Mac Jones
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: with back to back career drives, getting the back door,
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: losing by three. We had it at three and a half,
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: just like we planned it. We thought the Browns and
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: Jamis were due to pull a Jamis like game after
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: their win against the Steelers in snowy Cleveland on Thursday night.
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: Jamis goes off from nearly five hundred yards four Tuddies
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: has the game of his life. Also two pick six's
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: and a pick in the Broncos end zone as the
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: game is ending to help us preserve of the cover
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: that is betting at its finest right there.
• 6:05
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it was all timer and it was It was
• 6:07
  Speaker 3: funny too where they kicked a field goal on Denver
• 6:09
  Speaker 3: and I was a little lady friend. She goes, so,
• 6:12
  Speaker 3: what does this mean, like mathematically, like you've lost now
• 6:15
  Speaker 3: because I told her we can't have a field goal,
• 6:17
  Speaker 3: And I said, normally I would say yes, but this
• 6:19
  Speaker 3: guy Jamis just loves to turn it over. And she's like,
• 6:23
  Speaker 3: I don't know. She like, I feel like he won't
• 6:25
  Speaker 3: turn it over again.
• 6:26
  Speaker 4: I go, I will see.
• 6:27
  Speaker 3: It was what I think one play he threw that pick,
• 6:30
  Speaker 3: it was he's the best. They score all of a sudden,
• 6:33
  Speaker 3: they're back down on the one. I explained to her
• 6:35
  Speaker 3: that we had five and a half.
• 6:36
  Speaker 4: I was like, again, if.
• 6:37
  Speaker 3: They score here, it's they're on the first. They're on
• 6:40
  Speaker 3: the four yard line right now, they're probably gonna score
• 6:42
  Speaker 3: because it's a meaningless touchdown. I mean, you were once
• 6:44
  Speaker 3: again gonna lose. And James like you just said he
• 6:46
  Speaker 3: threw that pick on the four yard line. It's just like, God,
• 6:49
  Speaker 3: bless this man. I it sucks that no team will
• 6:52
  Speaker 3: let him be their quarterback because he is what top
• 6:54
  Speaker 3: five most exciting quarterback I think in my lifetime watching
• 6:57
  Speaker 3: he's just so much fun.
• 7:00
  Speaker 2: Guy just throws darts with no fear.
• 7:03
  Speaker 4: It's just it's apparently can't see yeah.
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: Oh wait, hold on, hold on this just in William
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: Vance of the Denver Broncos. I think he just gave
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: up another touchdown as we're talking.
• 7:17
  Speaker 2: My guess. My feeling is that if the games are going.
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: To play out exactly as we predict, it would be
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: nice if they could just space out the action so
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: it all happens in a seamless orderly way instead of
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: packing everything into the final two minutes. I don't know
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: if you feel that way, but I would like that
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: because then I can just go to bed happy and
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: knowing how it's going to end.
• 7:38
  Speaker 5: No.
• 7:39
  Speaker 3: I love It's the greatest sport on Earth, Chad, You'll
• 7:41
  Speaker 3: believe it. Eventually, it's the greatest sport on Earth.
• 7:43
  Speaker 2: So despicable, so hard to watch.
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: I did go to bed last night with ten minutes
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: left in the third because it was ten thirty at night,
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: the game was clearly going to go till midnight, and you.
• 7:53
  Speaker 4: Were just raging.
• 7:54
  Speaker 3: We were.
• 7:55
  Speaker 4: It was just unreal. Whinston was down for like four
• 7:56
  Speaker 4: hundred yards.
• 7:57
  Speaker 2: I get it.
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: It's like it was just too much because then you
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: turn it off and you can't fall asleep for ninety
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: more minutes.
• 8:03
  Speaker 2: So I gotta get up and I gotta do exercise.
• 8:08
  Speaker 4: I know I'm better than this. I know.
• 8:11
  Speaker 3: I'm just praying for the Lord to deliver me from
• 8:13
  Speaker 3: pick sixes.
• 8:15
  Speaker 2: Time to get to Week fourteen, green Bay Detroit. The
• 8:17
  Speaker 2: line has moved from four to three and a half.
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: Early money coming in on the Packers based on the
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: season long stats. This is a fantastic matchup. A power
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: running game for the Packers against the Lions defense that
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: has actually been pretty good against the rush. Lions have
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: an elite running game against a Packers ded that is
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: at least better against the rush than the past few
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: opponents the Lions have had. Since September fifteenth, the Lions
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: had fifteen players go on IR, either for the full
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: season or an extended period of time. I think thirteen
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: of those player twelve of those players on the defensive
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: side of the ball, including half their original starting lineup
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: and the replacements for these starters. Like, this is not
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: the coaching mismatch the Lions have seen in the past
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: few games either, So I like, it's such a hard
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: game to handicap. It really is, because I feel like
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: we don't know who's playing for the Lions.
• 9:20
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I would say a couple weeks ago would be,
• 9:21
  Speaker 3: but this this one feels really easy. Where you just
• 9:24
  Speaker 3: talked about it, it's like they don't have the defense
• 9:26
  Speaker 3: to get stops.
• 9:27
  Speaker 4: I mean we saw it.
• 9:27
  Speaker 3: Even in that second half, the Bears look like a
• 9:30
  Speaker 3: totally different team, was because the Lions just simply couldn't
• 9:32
  Speaker 3: stop them, right, I mean, Caleb really figured out how
• 9:35
  Speaker 3: to push the ball down the field, and you saw that.
• 9:38
  Speaker 3: You know, all the injuries to their linebackers, it's going
• 9:40
  Speaker 3: to catch up to them. And saying with all the
• 9:42
  Speaker 3: guys in their D line, it's like that's stuff you
• 9:45
  Speaker 3: can you can hide it for a little bit, but eventually,
• 9:48
  Speaker 3: like we're getting late here, and your guys, I mean,
• 9:51
  Speaker 3: you know you're in the best division of football right now.
• 9:53
  Speaker 3: This line schedule is tough because they're playing all these
• 9:56
  Speaker 3: really tough divisional games here, So two three weeks ago
• 10:00
  Speaker 3: you would automatically been the Lions here. We do not
• 10:02
  Speaker 3: trust Jordan Love at all. Even if you played well
• 10:04
  Speaker 3: those last couple of weeks. There's still little things he
• 10:06
  Speaker 3: does where it's just it's not the Jordan Love from
• 10:08
  Speaker 3: last year, right, there's just something off about Jordan Love
• 10:11
  Speaker 3: this year. But at this number against a banged up
• 10:14
  Speaker 3: Lions team, how do we not stay in this?
• 10:17
  Speaker 4: Like the the back door.
• 10:18
  Speaker 3: Is always to me, always gonna be open, and the
• 10:21
  Speaker 3: Lions are now giving this spot where it feels like
• 10:23
  Speaker 3: the Bengals are in right that they're gonna need to
• 10:25
  Speaker 3: put up thirty points against these really good offenses if
• 10:28
  Speaker 3: they're going to win these games.
• 10:29
  Speaker 4: So, yeah, three and a.
• 10:31
  Speaker 3: Half it does feel a little too easy. That's the
• 10:34
  Speaker 3: scary part. It's like, why is this not at three?
• 10:36
  Speaker 3: But we'll take We'll take the value. I'll take the
• 10:38
  Speaker 3: three and a half right now while it's still available.
• 10:40
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: The only thing that's giving me any pause at all
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: is that the Lions have been playing without defensive linemen
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: and linebackers all season and finding ways to have a
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: really effective defense in the spots where they need to
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: be most effective, and they've now got a week to
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: figure this out. I mean, part of the and why
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: they looked so bad against the Bears is because it
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: was happening in real time and it's hard to just
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: sort of make those adjustments in real time when you're
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: losing a defensive player every other series, if not every series.
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: So I do think that that they are so good
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: at coaching and so disciplined that and they are so
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: good at finding talent even though they're picking Jamal Adams
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: up off the street. That's how bad it is. It
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: gives me a little bit of pause because I have
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: so much belief in Dan Campbell and there and how
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: they coach. That's the only reason.
• 11:35
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I would say that's fair to be. But we
• 11:38
  Speaker 3: saw when they played earlier this year. If we talked
• 11:40
  Speaker 3: about if you took away that pick six, the lines
• 11:43
  Speaker 3: win seventeen fourteen, and it's like a really close game.
• 11:47
  Speaker 3: That's Jordan Love coming off. We're still playing with a
• 11:49
  Speaker 3: bad injury in that game.
• 11:50
  Speaker 2: That's true.
• 11:50
  Speaker 3: It's just even last year we talked about they played
• 11:53
  Speaker 3: in the Thanksgiving game and it was like, Wow, this
• 11:55
  Speaker 3: Green Bay team actually matches up really well offensively against
• 11:58
  Speaker 3: that Detroit defense, and that was when they was healthy
• 12:00
  Speaker 3: last year and this year they're not. So I get
• 12:03
  Speaker 3: where you're coming from. Like there is we just were
• 12:05
  Speaker 3: scared Alliance because we've been paying them so hard and
• 12:07
  Speaker 3: we really like them. But I just think it's all
• 12:09
  Speaker 3: about this number here in this divisional matchup.
• 12:11
  Speaker 4: Take the three and a half.
• 12:13
  Speaker 2: I think I'm with you.
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: Let's recap the Week thirteen Favorites podcast one hundred thousand
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: dollars Pro Football Pick Them Contest. Congratulations to Week thirteen
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: first place winner Jason Leak. Jason went five to zero
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: and for his Monday Night Football as in Yours tiebreaker,
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: he wrote down the maximum of nine hundred yards. Who
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: knew James was gonna throw for four ninety seven? That
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: was good enough to win. He takes home the maximum
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: one thousand dollars a weekly prize well done. As always,
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: Producer Matt Mitchell has selected the Producer's Cup Award to
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: the entry that finished dead fucking last in the contest.
• 12:55
  Speaker 2: Have you about the loads losers?
• 13:00
  Speaker 4: A Louis about he still kids.
• 13:02
  Speaker 5: On tri.
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: This week's Producer Cup goes to Daniel Gaid Aniella who
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: went h to five and missed the tiebreaker by almost
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: six hundred Europe.
• 13:15
  Speaker 2: Pretty good, Daniel.
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: Please email our producer at podcast at actionnetwork dot com
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: to claim your prize. I have simon three games that
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: I've pinpointed as potential exec decisions. This is one of them.
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: I'm not sure I'm going to land there. New York,
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: New York Jets at Miami minus six and a half.
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: This was at Miami minus seven for a hot minute
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: on Sunday, right before we went on the air. Someone
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: hit the Jets and it got to six and a
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: half at bet three sixty five, which is where it's at.
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: It is now at six at a lot of places.
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: Am I going crazy? Like why is there money coming
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: in on the Jets? We both agree that Miami is
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: the right side here, and now we're getting him at
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: a better number.
• 14:08
  Speaker 3: This is your first time, Chad, you know what's happenings.
• 14:11
  Speaker 3: This has been what is a nine straight week seven
• 14:13
  Speaker 3: We've had the Jets be bet on and become the favorite.
• 14:17
  Speaker 2: That's what I don't get though.
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: The Jets have been getting every getting money every single
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: week since they fired Robert Sala and it's not comprehensible
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: to me, Like is no one paying attention? Like since
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: firing Sala, the Jets are thirty first in points allowed
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: for possession, last in EPA, yeah for play, Like it's
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: a terrible team now.
• 14:39
  Speaker 3: If you go through all the numbers, it's like the
• 14:41
  Speaker 3: downgrade from the lat from hidden being a head coach
• 14:44
  Speaker 3: of this guy who's coaching now, it's like they became
• 14:47
  Speaker 3: such a worse team. Like it's clear solid wasn't the problem.
• 14:51
  Speaker 4: But we've talked.
• 14:53
  Speaker 3: About like these even the pros I know, I highly
• 14:56
  Speaker 3: respect Chad.
• 14:57
  Speaker 4: They're hitting the slot like they like the Jets.
• 14:59
  Speaker 3: They like them every week and they've just been getting
• 15:02
  Speaker 3: burned and it's like, I don't know if they can't
• 15:05
  Speaker 3: help themselves at this point, right. I think it's like
• 15:07
  Speaker 3: we joke about the time they've keep hitting black and
• 15:10
  Speaker 3: they're wait for that red to come or whatever it is,
• 15:12
  Speaker 3: and it's just it's not hitting for him, right, They're
• 15:15
  Speaker 3: just they've been off and I'll be patient. I mean,
• 15:19
  Speaker 3: give me Miami five and a half. I'm happy to
• 15:21
  Speaker 3: take that. And we talked about this a whole the
• 15:23
  Speaker 3: time Tua at home. This offense it's different, and they
• 15:28
  Speaker 3: beat up on bad teams. That's what they're good at.
• 15:30
  Speaker 3: So I'm happy to be patient wait for this one
• 15:33
  Speaker 3: to keep coming down. Like I already told you, I
• 15:34
  Speaker 3: like Miami here. I will not be sucked in on
• 15:37
  Speaker 3: the Jets again. Like last week, like we talked about,
• 15:39
  Speaker 3: they were up twenty one, like they had twenty one points.
• 15:41
  Speaker 3: It was whatever, it was, twenty one to six, twenty
• 15:43
  Speaker 3: one seven. It was lined up prof for the Jets,
• 15:46
  Speaker 3: and they totally melted it down like they're just They're
• 15:49
  Speaker 3: one of the more mentally weak teams in all football,
• 15:51
  Speaker 3: There's no.
• 15:51
  Speaker 4: Doubt about it.
• 15:52
  Speaker 3: So they're supposed to get up now traveling down to
• 15:55
  Speaker 3: Miami in the spot, I'm just not buying it. So yeah,
• 15:58
  Speaker 3: I'll be patient here. I'll let this like you, Like
• 16:00
  Speaker 3: you said you're gonna make exex decision. I was gonna
• 16:02
  Speaker 3: make this, Simon says, But I agree with you. We've
• 16:04
  Speaker 3: seen this come down from seven to six of most books.
• 16:07
  Speaker 3: Why can we not cross that key number five and
• 16:09
  Speaker 3: a half and let me get it? So I'll be patient.
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: Wait, I just made a note that this is a
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: potential foxhol as you were talking, I'm like, if we
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: think it's getting a five and a half. Then let's
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: foxhold it because we will definitely be on the opposite
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: side of all of the professional betters. Your point about
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: to beating up bad teams as favorites at home seven
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: and one against teams with a winning percentage of two
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: fifty or less, which is the Jets. And by the way,
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: don't if anybody is thinking, well, this is in the division,
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: it's a different game. All of those wins have come
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: in the division. He's seven and one in the division
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: as a favorite in this spot against bad teams. So
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: we're going to be on this.
• 16:54
  Speaker 4: Sorry, though, the love for the Jets, I'm with you.
• 16:56
  Speaker 4: It is one of the more bizarre things because it's.
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: Like, it's kind of it's truly insanity.
• 17:01
  Speaker 4: It is.
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: It's just doing it again and again and again. It's defined,
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: it's defined, it's in the freaking dictionary. We'll be on Miami.
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: I'm putting them on the list. It's just a question
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: of what the number is going to be, and if
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: it's below seven, fan frea fantastic Carolina at Philadelphia.
• 17:18
  Speaker 2: So the numbers twelve and a half.
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: Our first thing to think when this was at thirteen
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: on Sunday, night was take the Panthers. The wise guys
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: have done that. It's pretty much stayed at twelve and
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: a half. Like if we were looking to bet them,
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: the best thing that could have happened was them losing
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: in ot and the Eagles beating Baltimore on the road.
• 17:40
  Speaker 2: That's exactly what happened.
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: Like it is a statement win versus from a public POV,
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: a statement win versus another loss by another team. Everyone
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: thinks it's terrible, but I were going in on the Panthers.
• 17:57
  Speaker 3: I can tell you though, right now, I feel like
• 17:58
  Speaker 3: it's another line that mean you comes to day when
• 18:00
  Speaker 3: we're throwing out all of our shit, this is one
• 18:02
  Speaker 3: they were to pop up and be like, just get
• 18:03
  Speaker 3: it in there because we're both gonna like it.
• 18:05
  Speaker 4: Why wouldn't we like it?
• 18:06
  Speaker 3: It's it's way too big of a number for the
• 18:08
  Speaker 3: way this Panthers team in playing. And maybe I am
• 18:11
  Speaker 3: being sucked in on it because I watched all twenty
• 18:13
  Speaker 3: two and Bryce Young some of his throws.
• 18:16
  Speaker 4: Chat You're just like.
• 18:17
  Speaker 3: Okay, you see why this kid was what he was
• 18:22
  Speaker 3: in college, right because I never really understood it, but
• 18:26
  Speaker 3: you know, if he can throw on the run like
• 18:28
  Speaker 3: he was in that game last week. He can have
• 18:31
  Speaker 3: a career in this league. Like he's really good at
• 18:33
  Speaker 3: something that not a lot of guys are. I mean
• 18:36
  Speaker 3: even Bo Nicks. We'll give him his flowers from last night.
• 18:38
  Speaker 3: Like some of these young guys, the way they can throw,
• 18:41
  Speaker 3: you know, with weird body angles on the move, that's
• 18:44
  Speaker 3: just not something we saw like in the two thousands,
• 18:46
  Speaker 3: Like this is very new age playing style. These guys
• 18:50
  Speaker 3: are just such gifted athletes. So Brys Young, keep this
• 18:53
  Speaker 3: game close. Like you said, we're playing a little bit
• 18:55
  Speaker 3: of fire here because he's he's been so good to us,
• 18:57
  Speaker 3: and the egos are I mean, we have no doubt
• 18:59
  Speaker 3: a bat it the best defenses on football and one
• 19:01
  Speaker 3: of the best offenses. So if we could, if we
• 19:04
  Speaker 3: could cheat, I would love to just take either a
• 19:07
  Speaker 3: first quarter Carolina or just take them first half. Right,
• 19:09
  Speaker 3: we've seen the Eagles are just a team that comes
• 19:11
  Speaker 3: out slow, but we can't do that here, and it's.
• 19:13
  Speaker 4: All about playing the numbers.
• 19:14
  Speaker 3: So at twelve, I'm not crazy about it, but I'm
• 19:17
  Speaker 3: hoping Chad that the parlays the teasers tie in the
• 19:19
  Speaker 3: Eagles heavy and maybe we can get back to that
• 19:21
  Speaker 3: thirteen and a half in the contest, because that to
• 19:23
  Speaker 3: me would be an amazing number to have with this
• 19:25
  Speaker 3: Panthers team. I just think offensively, they're gonna be able
• 19:28
  Speaker 3: to hang in this game. But my fear is can
• 19:31
  Speaker 3: they get stops defensively because the Eagles team they're gonna
• 19:34
  Speaker 3: be able to have their way with this defense on Carolina.
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: Yeah, this is a get right game for Jalen Hurts, right,
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: Like this is just when he's if there's anything that
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: could potentially keep the Eagles from getting to the super Bowl.
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: Hjalen Hurts inability to be an premiere, elite playmaker with
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: his arm.
• 19:58
  Speaker 2: Like that's that's it, right. You can see it in
• 20:00
  Speaker 2: every game.
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: He has these streaks where he's kind of rushed in
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: the pocket, he is inaccurate, he can't find the right
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: receivers like that happens, and it's sort of a black
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: hole in every single game.
• 20:13
  Speaker 2: That to me is the biggest question for this Eagles team.
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: But I do love their interior, and you know, we
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: have a bias for physically dominant teams and Bryce Young,
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: you know we reference this on the show on Sunday Night.
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: He is like slowly morphing from manager to playmaker, and
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: you're spot on about some.
• 20:39
  Speaker 2: Of those throws.
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: On Sunday night, he had like guys in his face,
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: off his back foot and just flinging darts. I know
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: exactly the play you're talking about. It was like a
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: third and long. He's off balance, falling back and nails
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: to the only spot in the field he can complete
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: the pass. And it wasn't by accident, like you watch
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: the play and he freaking nailed it.
• 21:02
  Speaker 2: So you know, here's the problem.
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: Some reality, This Eagles defense has been so dominant the
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: past eight weeks overall, first in passing yards per play, sixth,
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: in EPA per past seventh, in sack percentage seventh, and
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: time to pressure. And by the way, they do all
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: this without blitzing. It's the pressure from the interior alignment. Meanwhile,
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: the Panthers defense thirtieth an EPA per play, sixth, then
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: yards per rush allowed, third, most rushes of ten plus
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: yards allowed. So it's possible Saquon runs for five hundred
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: yards and crosses two thousand yards for the season and
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: wins the MVP in this game.
• 21:49
  Speaker 2: That's the scare. Yeah, but it's on the list. Keep
• 21:54
  Speaker 2: it on the list.
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: Here's another one that is on my list of executive decisions.
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: And the third one on my list is so ugly.
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: I don't even know why I've come to this conclusion,
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: but this one is Cleveland at Pittsburgh. Cleveland's at six
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: and a half. Look, we made the mistake last week.
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: I won't do it again. You fee Tomlin in this spot.
• 22:15
  Speaker 4: My kids want to have a good Christmas.
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: Division faves of sixty eight points forty eight percent against
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: the spread. Tomlin is a fave of sixty eight in
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: the division just eleven and fourteen. The only question is
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: did we think this could get to seven? We didn't
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: do the right thing last week. We're going to do
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: it this week.
• 22:32
  Speaker 4: Please don't talk to me about more victories. Are that
• 22:34
  Speaker 4: be disrespectful to those guys in the room. Yeah, I
• 22:37
  Speaker 4: honestly don't think it's so.
• 22:38
  Speaker 3: I think this only comes down just because this is
• 22:40
  Speaker 3: what you just talked about. This is like a professional
• 22:42
  Speaker 3: spot like.
• 22:43
  Speaker 4: We just saw.
• 22:45
  Speaker 3: You know, Jamis have an absolute meltdown on Monday night,
• 22:48
  Speaker 3: burned anyone that bet on them, So even if they
• 22:50
  Speaker 3: pull the cat bet them last night, they're totally off
• 22:53
  Speaker 3: of him altogether. Right, this is going to be all
• 22:56
  Speaker 3: the money is going to be on Pittsburgh in this spot,
• 22:58
  Speaker 3: and the only people are betting the Cleveland's going to
• 23:00
  Speaker 3: be professionals. And to me, it's really a fade on.
• 23:05
  Speaker 3: I feel like Russell Wilson, like, are we really gonna
• 23:07
  Speaker 3: get burned by him? Two weeks in a row of
• 23:09
  Speaker 3: him throwing for over three undred yards? Because I do
• 23:11
  Speaker 3: think this is another matchups. I know it doesn't look
• 23:13
  Speaker 3: on paper like I'll turn to a shootout, but does
• 23:14
  Speaker 3: feel like a game that's gonna be in the like
• 23:17
  Speaker 3: the high twenties, which you know for these this matchup
• 23:19
  Speaker 3: is kind of like a lot of points. The totals
• 23:21
  Speaker 3: forty three, you know. I just think James gives this
• 23:26
  Speaker 3: team a whole new identity offensively like this. Even last
• 23:29
  Speaker 3: night I felt that with that number was like, you know,
• 23:31
  Speaker 3: that number felt a little little what like high, right,
• 23:35
  Speaker 3: like even we bet it it moved to six and
• 23:37
  Speaker 3: a half. At five and a half, I felt like
• 23:38
  Speaker 3: it was right six and a half, it was like, okay,
• 23:40
  Speaker 3: the values there shifted to Cleveland at that point. Same
• 23:43
  Speaker 3: thing feels here right like there should be four and
• 23:45
  Speaker 3: a half five. You just I mean you're you're saying
• 23:49
  Speaker 3: that Bethew six five. It's six and a half, but
• 23:50
  Speaker 3: most books is down to six. So yeah, to me,
• 23:53
  Speaker 3: I'd grab this six and a half now. I can
• 23:55
  Speaker 3: only see this coming down just because it's it's just
• 23:57
  Speaker 3: too I have a number for this type of divisional
• 23:59
  Speaker 3: matchup in this Like you said, Tomlin, in these games
• 24:02
  Speaker 3: for some reason, either lose he's outright, or just play
• 24:05
  Speaker 3: it really close and one by three at the end,
• 24:06
  Speaker 3: doesn't matter when it was Men Roethlisberger or Mason Rudolph, Like,
• 24:10
  Speaker 3: these are just ugly games for Pittsburgh and home divisional games.
• 24:13
  Speaker 4: So I'm with you, Chad. I like the six and
• 24:15
  Speaker 4: a half. You know I'll make that.
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: Simon says, I was just gonna say this feels like
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: you want to say. Simon says, I had.
• 24:21
  Speaker 3: Another game I really like, but fuck man, like it's
• 24:24
  Speaker 3: if it's six and a half at bet through six
• 24:25
  Speaker 3: y five, I'd grab that now because a lot of
• 24:28
  Speaker 3: the books here in Jersey are down to six.
• 24:30
  Speaker 5: When Simon says do it, we do what Siona.
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: I will good, then it forces me to make a
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: different decision about exec decision and what I have for
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: the exec decision. I think it will blow your mind.
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: And I like, after I did my research yesterday, I'm like,
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: do I really feel this strongly about this game?
• 24:49
  Speaker 4: Oh? Good?
• 24:50
  Speaker 2: I know, I know it's good, Simon.
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: The final weeks of the NFL season are upon us,
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: good or bad. This is when reputation are made, and
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: if you want to earn the reputation as an elite
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: gift giver, then you need to give the ultimate gift
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: of comfort and confidence, the gift of Tommy John. Thanksgiving
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: is coming gone, but a cornucopia of comfort can still
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: be yours. Breakout those holiday gift lists, figured out who
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: deserves the perfect gift, the perfect fit, the silky smooth
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: support of Tommy John underwear. Simon, why will you be
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: giving the gift to Tommy John this season.
• 25:37
  Speaker 4: Coach Chad, It's the gift that last.
• 25:40
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• 25:43
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• 26:00
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• 26:05
  Speaker 1: slash favorites Las Vegas Raiders at Tempt Bay Buccaneers got
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: away with one this past weekend. Had the Panthers against
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: the Bucks at home. If the Raiders don't botch a
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: snap and they kick a game winning field goal against
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: Kansas City and the Panthers don't fumble the ball in
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: Bucks territory, or if they make multiple field goals during regulation,
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: or if they score one more touchdown in the red
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: zone and the Bucks lose that game, is this number seven?
• 26:41
  Speaker 4: I don't know, but I hate that I have to
• 26:43
  Speaker 4: bet the Bucks here. It sucks.
• 26:45
  Speaker 3: I wanted to be on the Raiders. But wow, such
• 26:48
  Speaker 3: a Buck spot where it's like people are overreacting to
• 26:53
  Speaker 3: what just happened last week. We just talked about it
• 26:55
  Speaker 3: like Bryce Young played out of his mind. Really, if
• 26:59
  Speaker 3: you go back and watch you it was incredible. Ain't
• 27:01
  Speaker 3: O'Connell is not that guy like that Chiefs game? To me,
• 27:04
  Speaker 3: We've seen it every year with them. It's like the
• 27:06
  Speaker 3: flukiest game with the Raiders against that Chiefs team. Like
• 27:09
  Speaker 3: even when Derek Carr was there, they'd play these tight
• 27:12
  Speaker 3: games where they'd upset this Chiefs team, and then when
• 27:15
  Speaker 3: they play against a team like the Bucks, who's like
• 27:17
  Speaker 3: a good playoff contending team, they would just get rolled
• 27:20
  Speaker 3: like this is a bad Raiders team. I'm not letting
• 27:22
  Speaker 3: last week throw me off. I know obviously Max Crosby
• 27:24
  Speaker 3: is a difference maker with that defense, but that was
• 27:28
  Speaker 3: like the perfect, perfect lineup game for that Chiefs team.
• 27:31
  Speaker 3: On the flip side, the Bucks had the game from hell,
• 27:34
  Speaker 3: but you saw that that they changed, Like we talked,
• 27:37
  Speaker 3: the Bucky Irving thing to me is such.
• 27:38
  Speaker 4: A game changer for this Bucks team, Like he is so.
• 27:41
  Speaker 3: Good and you know Baker had an awful game, they
• 27:45
  Speaker 3: still able to pull that win out.
• 27:47
  Speaker 4: Baker doesn't have back to back terrible games. He just
• 27:49
  Speaker 4: has not been that player this season, Like.
• 27:51
  Speaker 3: Usually he's weak the week, and I expect him to
• 27:53
  Speaker 3: bounce back against a terrible Raiders defense here, So another
• 27:57
  Speaker 3: no line, I'll be patient on.
• 27:58
  Speaker 4: Give me six and a half.
• 27:59
  Speaker 3: Let the pub keep hammering this number on this Raiders team,
• 28:01
  Speaker 3: because I knew right away when I saw this number,
• 28:03
  Speaker 3: I was like, oh my god, the public is going
• 28:05
  Speaker 3: to hammer that Raiders line like they are all in
• 28:09
  Speaker 3: after what just happened last week, But I thought me
• 28:11
  Speaker 3: and you talked about it said more about that Chiefs
• 28:13
  Speaker 3: team than I thought it said about that Raiders team.
• 28:15
  Speaker 3: So yeah, I'm gonna be patient her way for a
• 28:18
  Speaker 3: better number that Bucks line. But it's six six and
• 28:20
  Speaker 3: a half. I'll take that if you can get an
• 28:22
  Speaker 3: out on the books.
• 28:24
  Speaker 2: I'm surprised to hear you say that.
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: I guess you could look at the Raiders game and think, Okay,
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: there's two different things here. They had some mishaps in
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: the red zone. They really should have scored more points early.
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: It's similar to what we just talked about with the
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: Jags and with the Broncos, right, sort of everything you
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: expected to happen happened in that game, only instead of
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: it happening through the course of the game and competency,
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: it happened in miraculous moments through two different plays, one
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: to brock Boers, one to I forgot who the other
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: receiver was on long throws from Aidan O'Connell was yeah, Tucker.
• 29:07
  Speaker 1: That got them in the end zone and sort of
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: made the game closer and sort of erased a thirteen
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: point deficit. Maybe you're right, I mean, I don't have
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: a strong opinion about this game.
• 29:20
  Speaker 2: I can't.
• 29:21
  Speaker 3: I mean, if it's again we avoid, I wouldn't be
• 29:22
  Speaker 3: mad either, because we hate taking huge favorites. But it,
• 29:26
  Speaker 3: you know, it just feels like a kind of spot
• 29:27
  Speaker 3: where it's like this is the Bucks are gonna be
• 29:30
  Speaker 3: undervalued in the spot.
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: To me, I love the Baker Mayfield narrative that's happening.
• 29:36
  Speaker 2: I love the way he plays.
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: I love that he's waving off trainers when he's getting
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: his ankle stepped on, and that he's balling out in
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: every game, and that this Bucks team loves him so much.
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: And I love that now that there was all these
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: flag planting brawls yea in college football this past weekend,
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: everybody is asking Baker for his opinion, and yeah, he's
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: not even blanching. He's like, teams need to learn how
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: to take an l You want to plan a fucking flag,
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: plan a flag and fucking deal with it, losers.
• 30:15
  Speaker 4: I just.
• 30:17
  Speaker 2: I love Baker.
• 30:19
  Speaker 3: I love him too, But it is funny. Like I
• 30:20
  Speaker 3: was with my cousin and she doesn't not watch much football.
• 30:23
  Speaker 3: I had explained to her that he was taken before
• 30:25
  Speaker 3: Josh Allen, who's just like a god among men. I
• 30:28
  Speaker 3: was like, you don't get it. He went to like
• 30:30
  Speaker 3: a normal school. Josh Allen went to Wyoming like no one,
• 30:32
  Speaker 3: No one goes to Wyoming becomes the best quarterback on football.
• 30:35
  Speaker 4: But I'm with you. I love Baker.
• 30:37
  Speaker 3: But the outside world you're just like, who is this
• 30:38
  Speaker 3: little guy that's got this little attitude. I'm just like,
• 30:41
  Speaker 3: if you love this sport, he is one of the
• 30:43
  Speaker 3: best quarterbacks and he's just hilarious.
• 30:45
  Speaker 2: Oh my god, it's great.
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: You know it's not great. Jacksonville in Tennessee. Tennessee is
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: a three and a half point favorite. I don't really
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: have anything here.
• 30:55
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm happy to avoid it.
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I feel like Phil, yeah we should, we should
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: play the Jags, but I feel.
• 31:01
  Speaker 3: Like, definitely play the Jacks if you have to, like
• 31:03
  Speaker 3: in your pick contest, you had to make a pick here.
• 31:06
  Speaker 3: I mean, Tennessee they've just burned people all year being favorites.
• 31:12
  Speaker 3: I mean I remember even earlier the year they had
• 31:13
  Speaker 3: a bunch of different matchups. That one that really jumps
• 31:15
  Speaker 3: out WI always be. I still can't believe we took
• 31:18
  Speaker 3: Tennessee against Malik Willison Green Bay, Like.
• 31:20
  Speaker 4: That was one of my worst bets of the year.
• 31:22
  Speaker 3: Thinking Tennessee was a smart move because they're going into
• 31:25
  Speaker 3: backup in Green Bay. They're just they're just terrible. So yeah,
• 31:29
  Speaker 3: you figure they'd bounced back here. That's what the books
• 31:30
  Speaker 3: are saying. But yeah, if I have to make a
• 31:34
  Speaker 3: pick on this line, I'll take the plus three and
• 31:36
  Speaker 3: a half.
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: Are you ready? I'm very curious your take on this game.
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: New Orleans Saints are five point favorites at the New
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: York Giants. This line movement got crazy wacky. Opened it
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: for Sunday Night, immediately bet down to three and a half,
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: and then right around when the Rams Saints game ended,
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: it got that up to four four and a half,
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: then five down to four and a half again in
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: some places like this is kind of fun to me.
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: The Giants will clearly need to run the ball to
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: win this game. The Saints gave up the second most
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: yards per play on the ground Tyrone Chase Tyrone Tracy.
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: Giants running back other than you know the cover killing
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: fumbles has been averaging five yards per carry. Only one
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: team gives up more yards per play on the ground
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: than the New Orleans Saints.
• 32:45
  Speaker 2: Are you ready for it? The New York Football.
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: Giants across every metric. The Giants are the worst rushing
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: defense in the NFL, and the Saints have been excellent
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: the ball. However, when I dug a little deeper, most
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: of that success is really about Taysom Hill, and when
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: he's been out, this team has really struggled offensively more.
• 33:14
  Speaker 2: It's really as much about him.
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: As it is Derek Carr. I don't know why, but
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: this is my executive decision. Take the Giant.
• 33:28
  Speaker 4: What is New York Giants?
• 33:30
  Speaker 2: Yeah?
• 33:31
  Speaker 6: Oh my god, my god, no, no.
• 33:41
  Speaker 4: No, you know, Dexter Lawrence is out for the year, right,
• 33:49
  Speaker 4: he's on the I R.
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: What if I tell you I forgot before I said
• 33:52
  Speaker 1: that I knew it and I forgot.
• 33:54
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I feel like it's a big it's a big deal.
• 33:56
  Speaker 2: I think that's a mistake on my part.
• 33:58
  Speaker 4: Yeah, don't, don't, don't take this one.
• 34:00
  Speaker 2: You got better.
• 34:01
  Speaker 4: Thank God.
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: Yesterday I had convinced myself that I was taking the
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: Giants like I'm like, I'm a genius.
• 34:10
  Speaker 4: I do love with the angle of it. It was
• 34:12
  Speaker 4: my same view last week.
• 34:13
  Speaker 3: Like again, if they didn't have that pick six, they
• 34:16
  Speaker 3: probably cover or win that game against Dallas, Like they
• 34:18
  Speaker 3: weren't awful in that game, but that was really about
• 34:20
  Speaker 3: it being a divisional game Thursday. You're just thrown it
• 34:23
  Speaker 3: all against and it still don't work out for him here.
• 34:26
  Speaker 3: But to me, the decks are laune injury is just
• 34:28
  Speaker 3: too much to overcap.
• 34:29
  Speaker 1: Like, I'm totally totally yeah, thank you. Wow, that could
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: have been bad. Well now I just want to go
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: back and take Cleveland, but I'll have to move on.
• 34:40
  Speaker 2: But you like my theory otherwise I do.
• 34:43
  Speaker 3: I think it's actually like a smart play like that
• 34:46
  Speaker 3: that Saint's team. Both these teams are going to be
• 34:49
  Speaker 3: quit on the season. I mean, let's be honest, like,
• 34:51
  Speaker 3: I don't know who's quit more. But yeah, at this point,
• 34:56
  Speaker 3: I would just take the Giants because who the hell
• 34:57
  Speaker 3: are the Saints to be catching five against anybody there?
• 35:00
  Speaker 4: They're a terrible team.
• 35:02
  Speaker 2: Well that's my theory.
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: Either way, I'm putting them on the list just in
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: case you're sick. Atlanta Minnesota, Minnesota minus five. A month ago,
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: the Falcons were six and three. Kirk Cousins had thrown
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: for twenty three hundred yards, seventeen touchdowns, seven picks, don't
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: forget eight hundred of those yards and eight of those
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: touchdowns came in two games against the Bucks. Since then,
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: Falcons on went three losses to New Orleans, Denver and
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: the Chargers. Kirk has thrown six picks sacks seven times,
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: does not have another touchdown pass.
• 35:50
  Speaker 3: Yes, we joked about I told you I felt like
• 35:53
  Speaker 3: everyone in Joe Public in the world was going to
• 35:55
  Speaker 3: be on at land here now. I was just going
• 35:56
  Speaker 3: to have to take the Vikings because it's like the
• 35:59
  Speaker 3: revenge whatever their mentality was for backing them and believing
• 36:02
  Speaker 3: once again in this Falcons team. I'm just totally off Kirk.
• 36:05
  Speaker 3: I've been off Kirk, like I just weeks ago. I
• 36:08
  Speaker 3: noticed he just does not look right, and everyone's coming
• 36:10
  Speaker 3: around because that was so egregious that loss, right, I mean,
• 36:13
  Speaker 3: if they just put Pennis in the second half, they
• 36:16
  Speaker 3: win that game, right, kicking field goals like that. The
• 36:19
  Speaker 3: Chargers had nothing going offensively, they were totally out of it,
• 36:24
  Speaker 3: you know, four picks, It's just it's inexcusable. So it's like, Okay,
• 36:29
  Speaker 3: I guess they're bouncing. They're betting him to bounce back.
• 36:32
  Speaker 3: But you kind of just talked about it, like other
• 36:35
  Speaker 3: than those two really big games. He's not been good
• 36:37
  Speaker 3: this season, Like he's been below average, which is not
• 36:41
  Speaker 3: what he should be on that offense. Like then one
• 36:42
  Speaker 3: of the better blocking offensive lines. They have great running backs,
• 36:46
  Speaker 3: you know, Drake lennoncop Pits. I mean, they're to me
• 36:48
  Speaker 3: good receivers, you know. I maybe it's the number that's
• 36:54
  Speaker 3: throwing me off here because it is high. But it's
• 36:56
  Speaker 3: like this Vikings defense that likes the blitz and move
• 36:59
  Speaker 3: guys off their spots. That's Kirk's biggest weakness right now.
• 37:02
  Speaker 3: If you move him at any discomfort in the pocket,
• 37:05
  Speaker 3: he folds right now, or he throws agregious picks like
• 37:09
  Speaker 3: he just throws into the terrible coverage.
• 37:10
  Speaker 4: And that's what the Vikings thrive on.
• 37:13
  Speaker 3: And now they're going to against guy they know better
• 37:15
  Speaker 3: than anyone else, right someone this team has seen him
• 37:17
  Speaker 3: practice for all those years. So it's like, man, it's
• 37:21
  Speaker 3: if this becomes like you know, if this becomes a
• 37:26
  Speaker 3: game that stays below six, I mean you were trying
• 37:30
  Speaker 3: to figure out favorites here, Obviously I'd like this more
• 37:32
  Speaker 3: than the Bucks. Like, I just really like the Vikings
• 37:34
  Speaker 3: in the spot. It's all about what kind of number
• 37:35
  Speaker 3: I'm gonna get here. So it's another number I bet,
• 37:39
  Speaker 3: and it's actually gone up at certain books.
• 37:41
  Speaker 4: It was four and a half, it's back up to five.
• 37:43
  Speaker 2: Uh.
• 37:44
  Speaker 3: As long as it stays blow six, I think it's
• 37:45
  Speaker 3: a good number of the Viking team. It's just it's
• 37:47
  Speaker 3: all baud right now.
• 37:48
  Speaker 4: For Kirk.
• 37:49
  Speaker 3: I just if it was, you know, a different matchup,
• 37:52
  Speaker 3: maybe I'd give him some of the benefit of the
• 37:53
  Speaker 3: doubt here, But the fact that it's going against his
• 37:55
  Speaker 3: Vikings defense that's just been so good this year, I
• 37:57
  Speaker 3: just I can't get around to taking his side.
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: So, uh, you mentioned some really good points. He's facing
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: a defense Kirk is that is fourth, and sacks third,
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: and QB pressure second and blitz right, all the stats
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: that back up what you were just saying about his
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: lack of comfort, And a lot of people would say, well,
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: you know, Bijon is having a great year, and he is.
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: He is much better this year than he was last year.
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: The Vikings top rank defense for rushing efficiency, top rank
• 38:27
  Speaker 1: for defending rushes inside the tackles, number two defending rushes
• 38:33
  Speaker 1: outside the tackles. In my notes, you just said you're
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: thinking about this number, and like, why isn't it higher?
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: That is exactly what I wrote in my notes. I'm like, what,
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: this number feels too low.
• 38:46
  Speaker 3: It was like it's you know, I'm overthinking it, but
• 38:49
  Speaker 3: it's like, what, this is a weird number.
• 38:52
  Speaker 1: Clearly I was misreading my notes and I meant this
• 38:55
  Speaker 1: was my exact decision, not blow it. I was confused
• 38:59
  Speaker 1: by the order in the schedule and the spread, but
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: I really met Minnesota minus five, not New York Giants
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: plus five. This is my exec decision, the choice between
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: the unthinkable and the impossible?
• 39:13
  Speaker 4: Are you haavy an executive decision? This feels like the
• 39:19
  Speaker 4: same thing with the Bills.
• 39:20
  Speaker 3: Like last week, we both loved the Bills and it
• 39:21
  Speaker 3: was really all about the spot and how this was
• 39:23
  Speaker 3: a bad matchup for the other side.
• 39:25
  Speaker 4: It feels the same thing for here. This is just
• 39:27
  Speaker 4: all really bad matchups for this Atlanta team.
• 39:30
  Speaker 3: So hopefully we have the same results as that Bills game,
• 39:32
  Speaker 3: where it's just like you clearly saw one team was
• 39:35
  Speaker 3: great against the one team was great against, defending the
• 39:37
  Speaker 3: run and running the ball down team's throats. This week,
• 39:40
  Speaker 3: this matchup we just talked about. It's ken Kirk survived
• 39:42
  Speaker 3: that blitz.
• 39:44
  Speaker 4: He is not.
• 39:44
  Speaker 3: He struggled all year against it. We think the Vikings
• 39:46
  Speaker 3: defense will dominate this matchup.
• 39:48
  Speaker 2: I'm excited.
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: This is my executive decision because much more than the Giants,
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: much more than the Giants, because nobody's yelling at me
• 39:54
  Speaker 1: in the chat. Yeah, while I'm making the player.
• 39:58
  Speaker 4: I love it.
• 39:59
  Speaker 3: Matt Mitchell slowly becoming unhinged by our terrible picks.
• 40:02
  Speaker 4: It's great.
• 40:02
  Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell is getting for so many reasons. Matt Mitchell
• 40:06
  Speaker 1: was getting grumpier and grumpy.
• 40:07
  Speaker 4: The man that that's the under eighty last night gets
• 40:10
  Speaker 4: mad at us.
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: He's got so many more reasons to be grumpy. It's
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: just lovely, Matt. You and I can talk about this
• 40:17
  Speaker 1: in our one on one this week.
• 40:19
  Speaker 2: Times stop speaking. How come you won't let America hear
• 40:22
  Speaker 2: the whole story?
• 40:23
  Speaker 4: Who's pocket are you in?
• 40:24
  Speaker 3: Well? This whole thing is a travesty and a sham
• 40:27
  Speaker 3: and a mockery.
• 40:28
  Speaker 2: It's a Travis sham mockery.
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: Seattle at Arizona. Arizona is a two and a half
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: point favorite in this game. Do we think Seattle's defense
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: is better than Arizona's.
• 40:40
  Speaker 4: I'll give Seattle defense respect.
• 40:42
  Speaker 3: They've definitely gotten better's got along where they were a
• 40:44
  Speaker 3: team that I was just like, I thought it was
• 40:45
  Speaker 3: fluky a couple of their matchups. I was like, ah,
• 40:48
  Speaker 3: it was kind of what the teams are playing. But no,
• 40:51
  Speaker 3: they've they've been really good down the stretcher, and we
• 40:53
  Speaker 3: we kind of heard that that was going to be
• 40:55
  Speaker 3: the part right of their head coach. It was like,
• 40:56
  Speaker 3: it's going to take a while to learn his defense,
• 40:59
  Speaker 3: and we've seen that here. But this is another game
• 41:02
  Speaker 3: where like it was plus three on Seattle, why wouldn't
• 41:06
  Speaker 3: I take that number?
• 41:07
  Speaker 4: Right? I don't know if you feel the same way.
• 41:08
  Speaker 3: It's these teams are pretty damn even like they're they're
• 41:12
  Speaker 3: good and they can move the ball offensively, but they're
• 41:16
  Speaker 3: terribly inconsistent and they've had a bunch of games.
• 41:20
  Speaker 4: Both both of.
• 41:21
  Speaker 3: Them have had games where they've easily could have won
• 41:23
  Speaker 3: or lost. And that they're sitting here now this is
• 41:25
  Speaker 3: going to decide their division, right, This feels like this
• 41:27
  Speaker 3: game here, the winner here is kind of, you know,
• 41:30
  Speaker 3: gonna have to control of their own fate. So Arizona
• 41:34
  Speaker 3: minus two and a half, Yeah, Chad, you could talk
• 41:36
  Speaker 3: me into it. But once it's three I'm going to
• 41:38
  Speaker 3: take Seattle at that number.
• 41:39
  Speaker 2: It feels like a no lean for me.
• 41:41
  Speaker 1: Home division faves of less than three forty against spread
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: the past twenty years, So like, I don't feel strongly
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: about this game. I like, you know, amazingly. I like
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: Miami minus six and a half. I like Minnesota minus five.
• 41:59
  Speaker 1: I like that games we have in there more than
• 42:02
  Speaker 1: I like this one.
• 42:03
  Speaker 3: Yeah, there's some games this week now it's like it's
• 42:06
  Speaker 3: pretty kind of the number, but it's I really don't.
• 42:08
  Speaker 4: Want to get that much action on it. They're just some.
• 42:12
  Speaker 3: Of these teams are who we think there, which is
• 42:14
  Speaker 3: just heavily inconsistent, like from week to week.
• 42:17
  Speaker 1: Then there's the Chicago Bears. They're playing the San Francisco
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: forty nine ers. There are four point dogs on the
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: road in San Francisco. Look, if you like the Bears,
• 42:26
  Speaker 1: I hope you got them. On Sunday when we talked
• 42:28
  Speaker 1: about it, they were.
• 42:29
  Speaker 2: At six and a half.
• 42:30
  Speaker 4: Yeah, that was crazy.
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: Now it's four and probably headed to three and a half.
• 42:35
  Speaker 1: Everything is on the Bears.
• 42:37
  Speaker 2: Hungry Bears are violent Bears.
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: I think one team is feeling relieved they got rid
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: of their head coach. That the players hated. I mean,
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: the unpacking of this the past few days as a
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: Chicago sports fan has been like revelatory. It's been interesting.
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: It's been everything that we thought it was, only nobody
• 42:59
  Speaker 1: would say it. And now that it's over, everyone's getting
• 43:01
  Speaker 1: to see the truth, which is that Eberflus was a
• 43:04
  Speaker 1: bad coach who the players didn't like. And then one
• 43:07
  Speaker 1: team is wondering what happened to its season, And now
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: Christian McCaffrey's on the IR again, probably out for the year.
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: Jordan Mason hiss backup who had rush for almost a
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: thousand yards in his place, he's on IR, likely done
• 43:18
  Speaker 1: for the year. Like at some point the value on
• 43:21
  Speaker 1: the Bears I think is gone, but I'm not dying
• 43:25
  Speaker 1: to bet this game.
• 43:28
  Speaker 5: Now.
• 43:28
  Speaker 4: And like Trent Williams might be back, but he's dealing
• 43:31
  Speaker 4: with a lot of.
• 43:31
  Speaker 3: Stuff going the off field right now. We think of
• 43:33
  Speaker 3: him obviously in his family, like he's going through hell and.
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: And he has, and like he's been day to day
• 43:38
  Speaker 1: for two weeks.
• 43:39
  Speaker 3: He's injured, right And it's like they only could take
• 43:43
  Speaker 3: so much. As we always talk about, this was a
• 43:45
  Speaker 3: team that was very top heavy, right, there were stars
• 43:47
  Speaker 3: and scrubs and with all these stars out there just
• 43:50
  Speaker 3: nowhere near the same team they were last year.
• 43:52
  Speaker 1: And.
• 43:54
  Speaker 4: Party is totally out of.
• 43:57
  Speaker 3: His comfort zone like he is. You know, he's fought
• 44:00
  Speaker 3: through injuries as well, but with all those weapons going on,
• 44:03
  Speaker 3: this offensive line up being what it is, you can
• 44:05
  Speaker 3: just tell he's not obviously.
• 44:06
  Speaker 4: The same player as he was these past two seasons.
• 44:08
  Speaker 3: So that Bears number six and a half, that was like,
• 44:12
  Speaker 3: what in the world is this number?
• 44:13
  Speaker 4: Yeah?
• 44:14
  Speaker 3: It really was, and it sucks it's come down because
• 44:17
  Speaker 3: I already knew this week the professionals were in the Bears.
• 44:19
  Speaker 3: They've been on the Bears every week for the last
• 44:20
  Speaker 3: feels like four weeks, so you knew they'd be on it.
• 44:24
  Speaker 3: I thought, Okay, the San Francisco forty nine Ers, even
• 44:28
  Speaker 3: if they lose by fourteen, I still think the public
• 44:31
  Speaker 3: would come on their side. They have totally jumped ship
• 44:34
  Speaker 3: on this team, like the public and the professionals now
• 44:37
  Speaker 3: on this Bears team. So in a normal year, me
• 44:41
  Speaker 3: and Chad would hammer this forty nine Ers team because
• 44:44
  Speaker 3: this is just the spot to take them. This is
• 44:46
  Speaker 3: what you backed the books here. But this has not
• 44:48
  Speaker 3: been a normal year. I mean even last night, like
• 44:50
  Speaker 3: the books desperately needed the Cleveland right, all the money,
• 44:54
  Speaker 3: every teaser in the world was tied to that team
• 44:56
  Speaker 3: and it didn't hit. Same with that Bills game, like
• 44:58
  Speaker 3: they desperate need the forgy Ires even close.
• 45:00
  Speaker 4: It was a blow.
• 45:01
  Speaker 3: Like we've just seen this year, their favorites have been
• 45:04
  Speaker 3: kind of prosper in the spot.
• 45:06
  Speaker 4: So yeah, the public side, it's Joe public.
• 45:09
  Speaker 3: It's I know the Bears right now is but right
• 45:13
  Speaker 3: now to city right now, I'll take it. But I
• 45:14
  Speaker 3: know I'm gonna get some cause about this one chat
• 45:16
  Speaker 3: because I do think the number of money is it
• 45:18
  Speaker 3: might have moved too much at this point and maybe
• 45:20
  Speaker 3: where we've missed the value on this Bears team and
• 45:21
  Speaker 3: the value has shifted to the forty.
• 45:23
  Speaker 4: Nine ers, but it's still three and a half. It
• 45:25
  Speaker 4: feels like, isn't there still value there? Maybe have three.
• 45:27
  Speaker 3: I can shift it in line on myself and say no,
• 45:30
  Speaker 3: this might take the forty nine ers. But they feel
• 45:32
  Speaker 3: like a team that's totally quit on the season because
• 45:34
  Speaker 3: everything that's going on with the Bears every week, they've
• 45:37
  Speaker 3: been in it down to the last play and it
• 45:39
  Speaker 3: just has not broke their way. Right these last couple
• 45:41
  Speaker 3: of weeks. So yeah, I'll take the Bears here. They
• 45:44
  Speaker 3: deserve their respect to have this three and a half.
• 45:46
  Speaker 1: Well, look, the Bears are certainly gonna be rejuvenated by
• 45:53
  Speaker 1: the fact they got rid of their coach, by the
• 45:55
  Speaker 1: fact they feel there might be some competent decision making
• 45:58
  Speaker 1: in the two to three times when you need it
• 46:01
  Speaker 1: the most from your head coach, game management, clock management, timeouts,
• 46:06
  Speaker 1: et cetera. They just haven't had that right, and so
• 46:10
  Speaker 1: they've been playing at a disadvantage. Are they going to
• 46:12
  Speaker 1: be so psyched, have such a good attitude, they're not
• 46:15
  Speaker 1: going to get down.
• 46:16
  Speaker 2: From bad mistakes. You're not wrong.
• 46:19
  Speaker 1: This team has been fighting to stay in every game
• 46:23
  Speaker 1: despite playing with an anchor around their ankles as their
• 46:26
  Speaker 1: head coach, right, I mean, they just have he makes
• 46:29
  Speaker 1: so many bad decisions. So it's really interesting to me
• 46:35
  Speaker 1: that so many people are buying into that narrative, which
• 46:40
  Speaker 1: to me is when you got to fade it, like right,
• 46:46
  Speaker 1: any other year, You're right, we're hammering the Niners at
• 46:51
  Speaker 1: this point. If you think about the contest, it's going
• 46:53
  Speaker 1: to be three and a half in the contest, So
• 46:55
  Speaker 1: we just you know, whatever, we wanted to get to
• 46:58
  Speaker 1: in real life, and I'd like to get so I
• 47:00
  Speaker 1: can't play the Niners. It's gonna be three and a
• 47:02
  Speaker 1: half in the contest, and I would I would hate
• 47:06
  Speaker 1: to play the Bears here. I think I think we'd
• 47:10
  Speaker 1: be miserable playing the Bears here.
• 47:14
  Speaker 4: I don't know. I just think.
• 47:17
  Speaker 3: I just think it's yeah, you're right, You're right, you
• 47:20
  Speaker 3: probably would be you know.
• 47:24
  Speaker 4: Yeah, it's tough.
• 47:25
  Speaker 3: It's tough, especially because I'm the douche sitting here on
• 47:28
  Speaker 3: the six six and a half tickets where it's like, oh,
• 47:30
  Speaker 3: I could just not even bet this one. Now, I
• 47:32
  Speaker 3: already got the good number on the Bears, but we
• 47:34
  Speaker 3: don't play that here. So yeah, I'll definitely have more
• 47:37
  Speaker 3: info in this come Thursday. But right now, as we
• 47:38
  Speaker 3: sit here, I'm with you, it feels like I'm walking
• 47:40
  Speaker 3: to a trap. But I can't help myself taking the
• 47:42
  Speaker 3: Bears here.
• 47:43
  Speaker 1: It's it's fascinating. You're not wrong about rock Party either.
• 47:48
  Speaker 1: What a difference it makes not having Brandon at Yuk. Yeah,
• 47:52
  Speaker 1: you know, that was the guy he was always throwing to.
• 47:55
  Speaker 4: So you need twenty yards. I was this guy, you know.
• 47:58
  Speaker 1: Like they've got nobody who can get s operation between
• 48:01
  Speaker 1: aw Yuk and McCaffrey. Those were his safety blankets. That's
• 48:04
  Speaker 1: where the majority of his passes went. And all of
• 48:06
  Speaker 1: a sudden, the guy who led them to an NFC
• 48:09
  Speaker 1: Title Game and his Super Bowl in his first two
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: seasons and has a big contract coming up. Now you
• 48:15
  Speaker 1: got to wonder is he going to get a max deal?
• 48:17
  Speaker 1: Who's going to pay him? Like, what's this deal going
• 48:19
  Speaker 1: to look like?
• 48:21
  Speaker 4: I know, talking to people that work in the organization.
• 48:23
  Speaker 4: John Lynch midway.
• 48:24
  Speaker 3: Through the season was kicking himself not moving off debo
• 48:27
  Speaker 3: like they were trying to move him before the season.
• 48:30
  Speaker 3: He thought, you know what, I'll keep the band together
• 48:32
  Speaker 3: one more year and then we'll trade him next year
• 48:33
  Speaker 3: because they're tied Ayuk now for years to come. And
• 48:37
  Speaker 3: Deebo's value was just the bottom of the barrel. Now
• 48:40
  Speaker 3: that guy, he is not that good right now.
• 48:44
  Speaker 2: Get out early.
• 48:46
  Speaker 1: That's the mantra, Get out early, Buffalo at the Los
• 48:49
  Speaker 1: Angeles Rams.
• 48:50
  Speaker 2: The Rams are four and a half.
• 48:52
  Speaker 1: Look, this was a decent move off of the Sunday
• 48:54
  Speaker 1: Night Superman performance by Josh Allen. It opened at three
• 48:59
  Speaker 1: and a half to bet the bills at three and
• 49:01
  Speaker 1: a half. Now it's at four and a half. You
• 49:03
  Speaker 1: made a great point on Sunday night. The Bills don't
• 49:06
  Speaker 1: tend to lose these kinds of games. I interpreted that
• 49:10
  Speaker 1: as them being a favorite in the spot where you
• 49:13
  Speaker 1: normally like.
• 49:14
  Speaker 2: To take a dog, So I looked it up.
• 49:16
  Speaker 1: Allen is a favorite of more than three fifty five
• 49:19
  Speaker 1: percent against spreading, his career on the road fifty seven percent.
• 49:25
  Speaker 2: Against spread.
• 49:26
  Speaker 4: We talked just the matchup too right.
• 49:28
  Speaker 3: We were saying this Bill's team, their identity of running
• 49:30
  Speaker 3: the ball down, team's throats. You saw it there on
• 49:33
  Speaker 3: Sunday night, like it's incredible how Joe Brady's transformed that offense.
• 49:37
  Speaker 3: Where I feel like such an idiot, even though I
• 49:39
  Speaker 3: did take their overcoming the season, it was just.
• 49:40
  Speaker 4: Like, how did we doubt that offense with Josh Allen?
• 49:43
  Speaker 4: Goosh Allen?
• 49:44
  Speaker 2: Gosh alert here with Josh Allen.
• 49:51
  Speaker 7: He's a football player through and through, and there we go,
• 50:00
  Speaker 7: drugs to excuse me?
• 50:02
  Speaker 5: Touchdown?
• 50:03
  Speaker 3: How many quarterbacks have you ever seen hurdle anyone?
• 50:05
  Speaker 4: Goodness, there's no.
• 50:07
  Speaker 5: Fear, no ways down going.
• 50:22
  Speaker 4: Oh my god.
• 50:24
  Speaker 3: The demand is to do something about this out of
• 50:26
  Speaker 3: regeous Man making louder and louder.
• 50:32
  Speaker 4: He's so good, he's so unique.
• 50:34
  Speaker 3: I mean, obviously he should be the MVP favor right now.
• 50:36
  Speaker 3: I mean, this is it's lined up perfectly to their
• 50:39
  Speaker 3: Their division is so bad. If they can just survive
• 50:42
  Speaker 3: these next five weeks and get that one seed, get
• 50:44
  Speaker 3: Kansas City to come to Buffalo, It's it's just so
• 50:48
  Speaker 3: lined up for them this year, Like, how do they
• 50:49
  Speaker 3: not make the super Bowl this year?
• 50:51
  Speaker 4: This Bills team, I just you know, I love.
• 50:53
  Speaker 3: Their defense while they're playing, but offensively, I'll never have
• 50:58
  Speaker 3: fear when they're down, Like they're just gonna be a
• 51:00
  Speaker 3: team that's never dead because they're just so in sync
• 51:03
  Speaker 3: right now offensively, and Josh Allen's went at such a
• 51:05
  Speaker 3: high level. So yeah, wanted to be on the Rams.
• 51:08
  Speaker 4: I joked.
• 51:09
  Speaker 3: I've lost a small house betting the Rams this season,
• 51:12
  Speaker 3: and I'm not gonna be sucked. And even though this
• 51:15
  Speaker 3: is another spot that stinks, like this number of stinks,
• 51:19
  Speaker 3: I don't know how the Rams are gonna cover it.
• 51:21
  Speaker 3: The books they they believe the Rams are going to
• 51:24
  Speaker 3: somehow cover this summer, but I'm just totally off with
• 51:26
  Speaker 3: this where it's like, I think it's all because of Stafford, though,
• 51:30
  Speaker 3: this number is what it is, if it's if it's
• 51:31
  Speaker 3: not all the respect we give to him, this number
• 51:33
  Speaker 3: is easily six six and a half. Stafford has not
• 51:36
  Speaker 3: been the Stafford of the like the past. He's been
• 51:39
  Speaker 3: terribly inconsistent this season and like he goes on little runs,
• 51:42
  Speaker 3: We'll play great for a quarter, maybe get a couple
• 51:44
  Speaker 3: of touchdowns, and then he'll just disappear for two or
• 51:46
  Speaker 3: three quarters. He's just been so inconsistent this year. And
• 51:49
  Speaker 3: this Bills team, I get it. They people expect him
• 51:52
  Speaker 3: have a letdown game here and I totally view that that.
• 51:55
  Speaker 3: That's why I wanted to be on the Rams here.
• 51:56
  Speaker 3: It's like, how do you not have a letdown game?
• 51:58
  Speaker 3: But with them chasing that one Sea chat and just
• 52:01
  Speaker 3: how locked in Josh Allen is, I just I can't
• 52:04
  Speaker 3: see it. So there's a couple of fours out there,
• 52:06
  Speaker 3: if you still want to grab it, I would.
• 52:09
  Speaker 4: I just I think this Bills team is so good.
• 52:12
  Speaker 3: On the flip side, this Rams team, we've seen it.
• 52:14
  Speaker 3: They're just not that team we thought they were gonna
• 52:16
  Speaker 3: be coming this season. Doesn't matter that they have, you know,
• 52:18
  Speaker 3: two of the best receivers in football in a really
• 52:20
  Speaker 3: good running game. They just aren't consistent offensively and defensively.
• 52:24
  Speaker 3: They can't stop the run. We even saw it last week,
• 52:26
  Speaker 3: like Taysom Hill going out was a gift for them
• 52:28
  Speaker 3: because he was running all over them, him and Kamar.
• 52:30
  Speaker 4: So yeah, totally off this RAMS team. I would buy
• 52:34
  Speaker 4: on this bill.
• 52:34
  Speaker 1: Spot past block and for the Rams is the issue.
• 52:37
  Speaker 1: We've talked about this specifically on Sunday Night.
• 52:41
  Speaker 2: What you just said.
• 52:43
  Speaker 1: Stafford goes on these little streaks, but eventually they have
• 52:48
  Speaker 1: that sack at the exact wrong time, or they can't
• 52:52
  Speaker 1: get that extra yard at the exact wrong time because
• 52:54
  Speaker 1: the offensive line, even though they finally have all their
• 52:57
  Speaker 1: starters back, it's just been terrible this year.
• 52:59
  Speaker 3: So yeah, I sold some seat. Last week was the
• 53:02
  Speaker 3: first time in the base coaching career he was shut
• 53:04
  Speaker 3: out in our first half.
• 53:06
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's you.
• 53:07
  Speaker 3: Should go through the list of the quarterbacks he scored
• 53:09
  Speaker 3: points with in the first half in his career.
• 53:11
  Speaker 4: It's just something's wrong with that Rams offense.
• 53:13
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 53:13
  Speaker 1: I think they're good against bad teams, and they can
• 53:15
  Speaker 1: get away with it against bad teams, but mediocre tore
• 53:18
  Speaker 1: great teams, it's not going to happen.
• 53:20
  Speaker 2: What's interesting here with the bills.
• 53:23
  Speaker 1: Obviously they're a huge public side, but it's the money,
• 53:26
  Speaker 1: meaning the professionals have come in hard on this team.
• 53:30
  Speaker 1: Sixty one percent of the tickets are on Buffalo eighty
• 53:33
  Speaker 1: four percent of the money. When there's that big of
• 53:35
  Speaker 1: a discrepancy, that tells you that the public is obviously
• 53:38
  Speaker 1: coming in. But the professionals have been coming in at
• 53:40
  Speaker 1: a very high rate on the Buffalo bills, so they'll
• 53:44
  Speaker 1: be on there.
• 53:44
  Speaker 4: The three and a half was a bad number to open.
• 53:46
  Speaker 2: Yep, Hey, folks, a reminder.
• 53:49
  Speaker 1: We've got the Favorites podcast watch party on December twelfth
• 53:55
  Speaker 1: coming up fast. It's nine days from today. A week
• 53:59
  Speaker 1: from this Thursday, we're going to the Wicked Wolf in
• 54:03
  Speaker 1: Center City, Philadelphia. We're doing free drinks, qan and A
• 54:08
  Speaker 1: with me and Simon. Matt Mitchell will be there too.
• 54:10
  Speaker 1: People can ask him why he's so grumpy lately. Doors
• 54:13
  Speaker 1: open at six pm. We're all gonna stick around and
• 54:16
  Speaker 1: we're gonna watch the Thursday night football game between these
• 54:19
  Speaker 1: Rams who we love and the Niners. It's turning into
• 54:22
  Speaker 1: a fantastic matchup. We're all gonna want to hang out
• 54:25
  Speaker 1: for this. We're gonna bet, We're gonna have a few drinks,
• 54:28
  Speaker 1: We're gonna have a conversation. We're gonna have a really
• 54:30
  Speaker 1: good time. Our SVP Please r SVP for this free event. Okay,
• 54:36
  Speaker 1: check out the link in either the podcast or YouTube
• 54:40
  Speaker 1: episode description pages. Simon and I are tweeting it out,
• 54:44
  Speaker 1: we're threading it out, we're blue skying it out. Wherever
• 54:49
  Speaker 1: you are, we will be there and you will all
• 54:52
  Speaker 1: be with us. At the Wicked Wolf in Center City, Philadelphia,
• 54:56
  Speaker 1: December twelfth, doors open six pm. Chargers of Kansas City
• 55:02
  Speaker 1: Chargers were four and a half on Sunday night.
• 55:04
  Speaker 2: We liked it.
• 55:04
  Speaker 1: Then they moved to four at bat three sixty five.
• 55:07
  Speaker 1: They're at three and a half at a lot of
• 55:09
  Speaker 1: other books. I think we still take the Chargers at
• 55:12
  Speaker 1: plus three and a half, and that's sort of the
• 55:16
  Speaker 1: line in the sand.
• 55:19
  Speaker 3: Yeah, obviously we both love the way more four and
• 55:21
  Speaker 3: a half because this game is going to come down
• 55:24
  Speaker 3: to the very end, just the way they've always played
• 55:26
  Speaker 3: each other.
• 55:26
  Speaker 4: It's always very tight and comes down to the last possession, and.
• 55:31
  Speaker 3: The fear here is something you kind of nailed last
• 55:33
  Speaker 3: week that I underrated a little bit of that.
• 55:36
  Speaker 4: JK.
• 55:36
  Speaker 3: Dobbins was, you know, a difference maker for that Chargers team,
• 55:39
  Speaker 3: like he really was.
• 55:40
  Speaker 4: You saw last week that was by far the worst Chargers.
• 55:43
  Speaker 3: Game of the season against an Atlanta defense is not
• 55:47
  Speaker 3: that good, certainly not on the level of this Kansas
• 55:49
  Speaker 3: City team. You expect this Kansas City team to bounce
• 55:52
  Speaker 3: back after their worst defensive performance of the year in
• 55:55
  Speaker 3: my opinion, and back to back weeks. Right, they struggled
• 55:57
  Speaker 3: against Carolina, They just struggled against the It's.
• 56:00
  Speaker 4: Like, I can't believe it.
• 56:02
  Speaker 3: It's like this is not the Bags defense were used to,
• 56:04
  Speaker 3: especially at this point in December. So it is really
• 56:09
  Speaker 3: mean you trusting the numbers and the fact that this
• 56:13
  Speaker 3: Chiefs team just plays games close, especially these Chargers games,
• 56:17
  Speaker 3: where it's like, even when they were much better than
• 56:19
  Speaker 3: this Chargers team, you know, Herbert always find a way
• 56:22
  Speaker 3: to keep it close and lose always in the last possession.
• 56:24
  Speaker 3: I mean, he always loses somehow on the last possession
• 56:27
  Speaker 3: against this Chiefs team. So I don't know if I'll
• 56:29
  Speaker 3: be in our money line around Robin the Chargers, but
• 56:31
  Speaker 3: at four three and a half, I'm with you.
• 56:33
  Speaker 4: Ched I would take still the Chargers at that number.
• 56:35
  Speaker 3: This line should just be three. We're getting good value here.
• 56:38
  Speaker 3: We'll see if the books keep shifting it. Because you know,
• 56:41
  Speaker 3: we both knew Sunday night this was going to be
• 56:43
  Speaker 3: a heavy public siding professional side of this Chargers team.
• 56:46
  Speaker 3: Just yeah, everyone was watching that Black Friday's game and
• 56:49
  Speaker 3: they're totally off this Chiefs team. I mean, it's just
• 56:52
  Speaker 3: a week of the pundit saying lines too many injuries,
• 56:55
  Speaker 3: they're they're done for the season. This is the banged up,
• 56:57
  Speaker 3: bad Chiefs team. They're not the same Chiefs teams last
• 56:59
  Speaker 3: year at this exact point. This Chiefs team last year
• 57:02
  Speaker 3: was even worse. It's just a week of everyone's shitting
• 57:05
  Speaker 3: on this Chiefs team. So that's kind of the fear
• 57:07
  Speaker 3: right chat. It's like, at what point this plut perception
• 57:10
  Speaker 3: overrate and they adjust too much of this Chiefs team.
• 57:13
  Speaker 3: I don't think they have yet this point. Like we
• 57:14
  Speaker 3: just said, this number should be three, it's four, Go
• 57:17
  Speaker 3: grab the four.
• 57:20
  Speaker 2: A lot of injuries for this Chargers team, not just JK.
• 57:23
  Speaker 1: Dobbins. I think that is a big deal. They do
• 57:25
  Speaker 1: not have an effective running back on the roster. Right now,
• 57:30
  Speaker 1: and their only receiving threat is lad McConkie, so a
• 57:35
  Speaker 1: lot of challenges for them. I actually worry more about
• 57:39
  Speaker 1: their injuries than I do about the Lions, because the
• 57:42
  Speaker 1: Lions have I think more offensive firepower whereas and the
• 57:48
  Speaker 1: cluster of injuries for the Lions as comps, because both
• 57:51
  Speaker 1: teams have a lot of injuries is on defense, whereas
• 57:54
  Speaker 1: the Chargers have a cluster of injuries but a key
• 57:59
  Speaker 1: positions in the defensive backfield, along the defensive line, in
• 58:03
  Speaker 1: the in the offensive backfield, different spots. So it's it's
• 58:07
  Speaker 1: it's to me, it's a it's not a guarantee that
• 58:10
  Speaker 1: we want to take the Chargers. Last time on the board,
• 58:15
  Speaker 1: Cincinnati at Dallas. Dallas is at five and a half.
• 58:18
  Speaker 1: I liked the Cowboys on Sunday night, and try as
• 58:22
  Speaker 1: I might, I still don't hate it. And you know,
• 58:26
  Speaker 1: the defense is getting better with Micah Parsons and the
• 58:29
  Speaker 1: Bengals pass blocking is just fucking terrible, like bottom five
• 58:35
  Speaker 1: according to Pro Football Focus.
• 58:38
  Speaker 2: I don't think it's going to get un our five.
• 58:41
  Speaker 2: It's not an exact decision, but I still don't hate
• 58:45
  Speaker 2: the Cowboys.
• 58:48
  Speaker 4: I don't either.
• 58:48
  Speaker 3: It's just our fear here is if if this does
• 58:51
  Speaker 3: turn into a shootout, we're probably cooked. Right, There's there's
• 58:55
  Speaker 3: no world that Cooper Rush to keep up with Joe Burrow.
• 58:58
  Speaker 4: But you just said it like this is who the
• 59:02
  Speaker 4: hell are this Bengals seem to be catching this many points.
• 59:04
  Speaker 4: I don't care if it is Cooper Rash. It's like, okay, if.
• 59:06
  Speaker 3: It was three and a half, that would make sense
• 59:09
  Speaker 3: that five and a half, and you liked it at six,
• 59:11
  Speaker 3: which I agreed with. I was like, okay, it's six.
• 59:13
  Speaker 3: This is a good number. Unfortunately, the professionals agreed with Chad.
• 59:16
  Speaker 3: They bet this now it is five and a half.
• 59:20
  Speaker 3: I'll pass on it now and just hopefully it goes
• 59:22
  Speaker 3: back to six. And if it doesn't get to six,
• 59:24
  Speaker 3: you know, I know, I've gone to talk to myself
• 59:26
  Speaker 3: and it taken Dallas just because this number is too big.
• 59:28
  Speaker 3: But for contest purposes, I wouldn't put this in less
• 59:30
  Speaker 3: those six and a half.
• 59:32
  Speaker 1: The professionals always agree with Chad. It's like a recurring
• 59:36
  Speaker 1: theme on this show. Other than when he's not remembering
• 59:41
  Speaker 1: the Giants not having their most dominant player on defense,
• 59:45
  Speaker 1: he's generally pretty sharp.
• 59:47
  Speaker 4: Locked in.
• 59:53
  Speaker 1: Well said and so few words, all right, Simon says,
• 59:59
  Speaker 1: is Cleveland plus six and a half, exec decision, Minnesota
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 1: minus five and a half. We're feeling fox holy.
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 4: We'll right at Minnesota. You can get you go five
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 4: right about three six five?
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 2: At what did I say from Minnesota? I said five
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 2: and a half? I meant five.
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 1: We're feeling fox holy about Miami at minus six and
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 1: a half. Will confirm that as the number hopefully goes
• 1:00:22
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