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AT&T Pebble Beach - PGA Leverage Lane | DraftKings & FanDuel DFS | Single-Entry GPP Strategy · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:04
  Speaker 1: Ball systems going clear the liftop.
• 0:36
  Speaker 2: What's up everyone, Tyler Tambaline here aka Totag and Tambo
• 0:39
  Speaker 2: back for another edition of the PGA version of Leverage Lane.
• 0:43
  Speaker 3: We did this through NFL.
• 0:44
  Speaker 2: I know I'm starting it off that way, but my
• 0:46
  Speaker 2: man Alex Blickle here with me as always. But we
• 0:48
  Speaker 2: did do this during football, and I know with the
• 0:50
  Speaker 2: Super Bowl just wrapping up, we'll definitely have some folks
• 0:53
  Speaker 2: that are just joining us for the first time this week,
• 0:55
  Speaker 2: so welcome in the golf season may be officially starting
• 0:58
  Speaker 2: for some now. Even with the waste management last week.
• 1:00
  Speaker 2: We do have the Pebble Beach at and t Pebble
• 1:03
  Speaker 2: Beach Pro Am this week. It is a signature event,
• 1:05
  Speaker 2: a smaller field. Scottie Scheffler is here and DraftKings is
• 1:08
  Speaker 2: running no Scheffler contests. I do want to clearly hear
• 1:11
  Speaker 2: quickly though, Alex before I bring you in. That was
• 1:13
  Speaker 2: most certainly if people couldn't catch on to it, a
• 1:15
  Speaker 2: very not serious joke. When I posted that out.
• 1:18
  Speaker 3: People like to.
• 1:19
  Speaker 2: Tag and Tamba loves this thing. He got it approved
• 1:21
  Speaker 2: and he's you know, he must be loving this like
• 1:22
  Speaker 2: I don't. Nobody was asking for that, and I don't
• 1:25
  Speaker 2: know why that would actually be a thing in DFS,
• 1:27
  Speaker 2: but I'll bring you in my friend.
• 1:28
  Speaker 3: How you doing.
• 1:29
  Speaker 4: Yeah, very weird to see that. I'm glad that they
• 1:33
  Speaker 4: didn't interrupt any of the actual contests and we've got
• 1:36
  Speaker 4: all the you know, the well sized contests. So uh yeah,
• 1:39
  Speaker 4: I would like to see that market disappear, that that
• 1:42
  Speaker 4: contest type disappear. But as long as it doesn't interfere
• 1:45
  Speaker 4: with what we're what we're doing on a week to
• 1:46
  Speaker 4: week basis, then they can do whatever they want with it.
• 1:49
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I will say if if people want to give
• 1:50
  Speaker 3: me that credit.
• 1:51
  Speaker 2: Sweet, I don't think I have that kind of pull,
• 1:52
  Speaker 2: but I actually would, uh hot take. I don't think
• 1:55
  Speaker 2: we'll ever see that again after this week. It doesn't
• 1:57
  Speaker 2: look like it's gonna fill. I think it's a bit
• 1:58
  Speaker 2: ridiculous from a DFS respective. I get for betting markets
• 2:01
  Speaker 2: and stuff, people have a lot to talk about, but
• 2:03
  Speaker 2: it's part of the puzzle and what we do. Like
• 2:04
  Speaker 2: your original comment when I posted the joke was that
• 2:06
  Speaker 2: I kind of like it. If they keep pricing it correctly,
• 2:09
  Speaker 2: it makes this more a puzzle, whether people like it
• 2:11
  Speaker 2: or not.
• 2:12
  Speaker 3: Again, some of you here for the first time.
• 2:13
  Speaker 2: There's we're trying to make a new spin to it
• 2:15
  Speaker 2: each week, but we definitely will have to Scotty or
• 2:17
  Speaker 2: not the Scotty conversation. Again, it's just part of the
• 2:19
  Speaker 2: game that we play right now, and it matters. Imagine
• 2:21
  Speaker 2: back in the day. It's not even putting them in
• 2:23
  Speaker 2: the same class right now, just noting it. But if
• 2:25
  Speaker 2: Tiger Woods was you know, if we were doing this
• 2:27
  Speaker 2: when Tiger Woods was on his run back, then we
• 2:29
  Speaker 2: would have to have those conversations is it VJ Singh
• 2:32
  Speaker 2: and Phil or is it Tiger and what are these
• 2:34
  Speaker 2: conversations gonna be. Well, now it's a little bit different
• 2:36
  Speaker 2: with Scotty, but I'll let you jump in. Obviously, I
• 2:37
  Speaker 2: see you got something there.
• 2:38
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, it's it's not just about, you know,
• 2:41
  Speaker 4: whether we want to play Scotty or not. Having this
• 2:43
  Speaker 4: Scotty discussion is really important for ownership because if you
• 2:46
  Speaker 4: can't get Scotty right, you can't get Rory, Tommy Hovelin,
• 2:49
  Speaker 4: seawou Hideki right. You're just gonna get all of them
• 2:52
  Speaker 4: wrong if you're wrong about Scotty, And if you're wrong
• 2:54
  Speaker 4: about Scotty, you're also going to be wrong about Kiddi
• 2:56
  Speaker 4: Yama and Me and Lee and Connors and Stevens and McCarty,
• 2:59
  Speaker 4: like all the guys get ownership down there as well.
• 3:01
  Speaker 4: So it's a really important conversation to have because it
• 3:04
  Speaker 4: literally shapes the entire slate when you start with what
• 3:07
  Speaker 4: do we do with Scotty and what is everybody else
• 3:09
  Speaker 4: going to do with Scotty?
• 3:10
  Speaker 2: Certainly, and if you're just joining us for the first time,
• 3:12
  Speaker 2: if you're back again, we appreciate you.
• 3:13
  Speaker 3: See a lot of folks in the chat.
• 3:14
  Speaker 2: I just brought some of the content, some of the
• 3:16
  Speaker 2: comments up and we got our guy who does our content,
• 3:19
  Speaker 2: Boots on the ground. Matt Gannon was in there, so
• 3:21
  Speaker 2: he's out at Pebble right now. He almost blew away yesterday.
• 3:24
  Speaker 2: We got to see that video of him sort of
• 3:25
  Speaker 2: floating away. He was falling around with Rory right up
• 3:27
  Speaker 2: close to him. I saw some stuff from Rory on
• 3:30
  Speaker 2: X as well. I saw Rory make an eagle on
• 3:32
  Speaker 2: the final hole there or whatever, and that.
• 3:34
  Speaker 3: Was pretty cool. But just noting.
• 3:35
  Speaker 2: And if you're just joining us, we are going to
• 3:36
  Speaker 2: break down a little bit of a recap from last week.
• 3:38
  Speaker 2: It's an edutainment show. We're trying to bring you something
• 3:41
  Speaker 2: that's a little bit more evergreen, but then take the
• 3:43
  Speaker 2: review and make it application. So review application very important
• 3:47
  Speaker 2: in something like DFS where you can learn a little
• 3:49
  Speaker 2: bit from last time and then be able to apply
• 3:51
  Speaker 2: it moving forward.
• 3:51
  Speaker 3: But we are going to focus directly on this slate.
• 3:54
  Speaker 2: When we get there, we'll talk about what the chalk
• 3:55
  Speaker 2: build looks like for the week, The Scotty conversation very
• 3:58
  Speaker 2: important around that.
• 4:00
  Speaker 3: Then we'll talk about how.
• 4:00
  Speaker 2: You can leverage what others are doing or what looks
• 4:03
  Speaker 2: like the chalk build this week, and then at the
• 4:05
  Speaker 2: end we'll have our leverage lane from a DFS perspective
• 4:07
  Speaker 2: of what we're doing on a single entry this week.
• 4:10
  Speaker 3: It's a more single entry GPP focus. We do have
• 4:13
  Speaker 3: a one and done segment at the end.
• 4:15
  Speaker 2: We also have a betting breakdown, so that's gonna happen
• 4:18
  Speaker 2: at the end as well.
• 4:18
  Speaker 3: But before I forget from last week, Alex, we don't
• 4:20
  Speaker 3: have one for this week.
• 4:21
  Speaker 2: It was an awesome comment from Aaron last week that
• 4:23
  Speaker 2: we brought up and we spend so much time on
• 4:25
  Speaker 2: and then forgot to remind people. So three things give
• 4:27
  Speaker 2: us a thumbs up. If you're watching on mobile, don't
• 4:31
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• 4:32
  Speaker 2: on the chat box just for a second, hit the
• 4:34
  Speaker 2: thumbs up, then let the chat box pop back up.
• 4:37
  Speaker 3: If you're on desktop, it's right there. You can't miss it.
• 4:38
  Speaker 3: It's a thumbs up down below.
• 4:40
  Speaker 2: Make sure to subscribe to the channel so you can
• 4:42
  Speaker 2: get all this content for free, all the other stuff
• 4:44
  Speaker 2: that we do over here at ship It. And then lastly,
• 4:47
  Speaker 2: all you right now are watching this live, but those
• 4:49
  Speaker 2: watching it on playback or however you want to call it,
• 4:51
  Speaker 2: you know, watching it later on replay leave a comment
• 4:55
  Speaker 2: and let us know down below.
• 4:56
  Speaker 3: You can't do it all you're live, but later you can.
• 4:57
  Speaker 2: Let us know in the comments below what or just
• 5:00
  Speaker 2: some thought provoking comment, whether it was something that was
• 5:02
  Speaker 2: interesting that you took away, or if you have a
• 5:04
  Speaker 2: question for future that you.
• 5:06
  Speaker 3: Want us to know.
• 5:07
  Speaker 2: What we're gonna continue doing and again starting next week
• 5:09
  Speaker 2: is making sure to pull those comments up. And we're
• 5:11
  Speaker 2: each gonna give you guys a free week to ship
• 5:13
  Speaker 2: a nation. And I think Alex you said you're gonna
• 5:15
  Speaker 2: give a free week as well. Is that correct?
• 5:17
  Speaker 4: That is correct? Yeah, to my discord.
• 5:19
  Speaker 3: Yeah, perfect, that's awesome. So shout out to everybody that
• 5:21
  Speaker 3: joined us quick recap just on last week's stuff, I
• 5:24
  Speaker 3: will say the biggest takeaway, man, the pun gets used
• 5:28
  Speaker 3: and over used, but the pun is overblown. The weather
• 5:31
  Speaker 3: conversation would not go away. It was painful.
• 5:33
  Speaker 2: I said, I honestly wish we could get weather advantage.
• 5:35
  Speaker 2: I wish we could get true weather advantage slates. We
• 5:38
  Speaker 2: said last week, we didn't think it was a true
• 5:40
  Speaker 2: weather advantage slate, like the projections, the ownership if you
• 5:42
  Speaker 2: have good if you have good ones, we'll still reflect
• 5:44
  Speaker 2: that stuff. We're very high on mentioning that, like you
• 5:46
  Speaker 2: don't need to go all in on this, but you
• 5:48
  Speaker 2: pretty much need like British open back in the day,
• 5:51
  Speaker 2: like Mickelson's Senson conditions to like go all in on it.
• 5:55
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 5:55
  Speaker 2: I think a lot of people get confused with that
• 5:57
  Speaker 2: kind of thing. And I said, I wish we could
• 5:58
  Speaker 2: have true weather edge slate with no discord weather talk.
• 6:02
  Speaker 2: It was literally painful. It was like being at a
• 6:04
  Speaker 2: Thanksgiving dinner table with politics being talked about all around,
• 6:07
  Speaker 2: everybody on different sides.
• 6:09
  Speaker 3: It just turns into battle.
• 6:11
  Speaker 2: That's literally the definition of leverage lane is pick your
• 6:14
  Speaker 2: lane going it and if it works, great, If it doesn't,
• 6:17
  Speaker 2: learn from me to move on. But like you did
• 6:19
  Speaker 2: not have to be all in on the weather last week,
• 6:21
  Speaker 2: It was not the case whatsoever.
• 6:23
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I thought the part of the discussion that bothers
• 6:26
  Speaker 4: me both before and after is just like the certainty
• 6:30
  Speaker 4: with which people talk about it, and the certainty with
• 6:33
  Speaker 4: which people then talk in hindsight about Oh, anyone who's
• 6:36
  Speaker 4: saying there was going to be a weather edge was
• 6:37
  Speaker 4: dead wrong, and anyone who said there wasn't was obviously correct.
• 6:40
  Speaker 4: And you know, in my discord, like I think what
• 6:42
  Speaker 4: I wrote was there was about a fifty percent chance
• 6:45
  Speaker 4: of no wave advantage, about a thirty percent chance that
• 6:48
  Speaker 4: it was going to be like half a stroke to
• 6:50
  Speaker 4: a stroke, and then there was you know, a fifteen
• 6:52
  Speaker 4: to twenty percent, fifteen to twenty percent chance that it
• 6:55
  Speaker 4: was going to be a huge advantage that you just
• 6:57
  Speaker 4: couldn't overcome if you didn't have the wavestack. And so
• 7:00
  Speaker 4: so I ended up actually going against the wave edge,
• 7:04
  Speaker 4: and I think I played I think I played four
• 7:06
  Speaker 4: guys who were in the quote unquote bad wave. And
• 7:09
  Speaker 4: it wasn't about like searching for correlation. It was just, hey,
• 7:12
  Speaker 4: you know what, I think the field has moved so
• 7:15
  Speaker 4: heavily in favor of this potential wave advantage that now,
• 7:19
  Speaker 4: like all of the best plays in this other wave
• 7:21
  Speaker 4: that I loved coming into the week and then saw
• 7:23
  Speaker 4: that they were going to be fifteen to twenty percent owned,
• 7:26
  Speaker 4: now they're going to be eight percent or eleven percent,
• 7:28
  Speaker 4: and all of a sudden they're among the most underround
• 7:31
  Speaker 4: plays on the slate. And so like Hoyguard Nikolai Hoygard
• 7:35
  Speaker 4: got her up to both of those guys like that
• 7:38
  Speaker 4: was my core because all of a sudden they were
• 7:41
  Speaker 4: going to be really low on instead of the chalk
• 7:43
  Speaker 4: that they were expected to be before people started to
• 7:45
  Speaker 4: factor in the weather. So basically just said, I think
• 7:48
  Speaker 4: people are over overestimating the likelihood of the wave advantage,
• 7:52
  Speaker 4: and that to me is what we should be doing
• 7:54
  Speaker 4: with the weather. It's always a probability question. What is
• 7:57
  Speaker 4: the probability it shows up? What is the problem ability
• 8:00
  Speaker 4: that it's super impactful if it does show up, and
• 8:02
  Speaker 4: just use all of that and you know, relate it
• 8:04
  Speaker 4: to ownership. So it's the part that bothers me, as
• 8:08
  Speaker 4: I said, is just the certainty with which people talked
• 8:09
  Speaker 4: about it. And you know, oh, anybody who thought there
• 8:11
  Speaker 4: was going to be a wave edge was an idiot
• 8:13
  Speaker 4: and they're using bad weather sources. No, it's those weather
• 8:17
  Speaker 4: sources were telling us that it was uncertain. They were
• 8:19
  Speaker 4: telling us that they were that you know, it was
• 8:21
  Speaker 4: a wide range of outcomes and we should lean into
• 8:23
  Speaker 4: that uncertainty and try to harness it the way the
• 8:25
  Speaker 4: best we can.
• 8:26
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and one thing to know too, just of that,
• 8:27
  Speaker 2: Like we talked about this as well, like if I
• 8:28
  Speaker 2: was already for me, it's like, what do you like
• 8:31
  Speaker 2: as well? It's the same reason when we sometimes we
• 8:32
  Speaker 2: talk about the Scotty stuff, like if you have thirty
• 8:35
  Speaker 2: guys down low that you're really interested in and you
• 8:37
  Speaker 2: like Scotty, well you should try and put that together.
• 8:39
  Speaker 2: I'm certain there's a version that you can find of it.
• 8:42
  Speaker 2: If you were already for me last week, like I
• 8:43
  Speaker 2: was high on Xander, clearly did not work out.
• 8:45
  Speaker 3: We take the l's move on like it is what
• 8:47
  Speaker 3: it is. But I'm saying I had.
• 8:49
  Speaker 2: Reasoning to it, which everybody loved before the tournament started,
• 8:51
  Speaker 2: and then when it happens, it's like, oh, that was
• 8:53
  Speaker 2: such a terrible thing.
• 8:54
  Speaker 3: It's again, we're playing a game.
• 8:55
  Speaker 2: So as my friend Title likes to say, new dad Title,
• 8:58
  Speaker 2: congrats to my man Title by the way, but just
• 9:00
  Speaker 2: noting he says, not how often you're right, it's how
• 9:02
  Speaker 2: much you win when you are right. We're playing for that,
• 9:04
  Speaker 2: you know, to our guy rest in peace, DJ big
• 9:06
  Speaker 2: Guy in the sky. Like people keep forgetting this. I
• 9:09
  Speaker 2: ham it in my discord over at shriber Nation last week.
• 9:11
  Speaker 2: We all go through it each week, and you do
• 9:12
  Speaker 2: it in your discord, we do it in ours. It's
• 9:15
  Speaker 2: like people might have forgot about spike weeks. Like you're
• 9:17
  Speaker 2: playing thirty to forty weeks of golf, not just slates,
• 9:21
  Speaker 2: because some people are playing three to five slates a
• 9:23
  Speaker 2: week with Showdown included. So you're playing all these slates,
• 9:27
  Speaker 2: you're gonna spike three to four times. And that's just
• 9:29
  Speaker 2: how often can you spike and how much can it
• 9:31
  Speaker 2: be worth when you do? You better get comfortable losing.
• 9:33
  Speaker 2: The All Star baseball players that go out hit three hundred,
• 9:36
  Speaker 2: well seventy percent of the time, it's not looking good.
• 9:38
  Speaker 2: They can have five strikeout games. Oh Tani went over
• 9:41
  Speaker 2: five one game. It's like, oh, I see a loser. No,
• 9:43
  Speaker 2: that's how it goes sometimes, and he'll come back and
• 9:45
  Speaker 2: smash street home runs on you another game.
• 9:47
  Speaker 3: So got to remember that too.
• 9:48
  Speaker 2: But you should be leaning into if you liked if
• 9:50
  Speaker 2: you weren't on Scottie and you were in on Zander
• 9:53
  Speaker 2: and you still like the guys down low that were
• 9:54
  Speaker 2: in the afternoon wave and you already had five pm guys.
• 9:57
  Speaker 2: You don't just got to do it because of the weather.
• 9:59
  Speaker 2: It's like, Okay, I'm already in on five pm guys,
• 10:01
  Speaker 2: and I know we'll talk about it this week. That's
• 10:02
  Speaker 2: why I'm bringing it up. Because we've got the Spyglass
• 10:05
  Speaker 2: and Pebble Beach. And when you think back to like
• 10:07
  Speaker 2: my North Course South Course the week before, it didn't
• 10:10
  Speaker 2: win all the money, but it was pretty solid for me.
• 10:13
  Speaker 2: You got a nice big mega ticket all that stuff,
• 10:15
  Speaker 2: just going all in on the North Course because I
• 10:16
  Speaker 2: could now play six guys that people liked on that course.
• 10:20
  Speaker 2: But it's like you always say, it's not just who
• 10:21
  Speaker 2: you play, it's who you don't play. It alleviated me
• 10:24
  Speaker 2: from some of those busts on the other side of that.
• 10:26
  Speaker 2: You know, that course set up so I don't you
• 10:28
  Speaker 2: want to elaborate any more on that, but I just
• 10:30
  Speaker 2: sort of sort of thought that was another point to
• 10:31
  Speaker 2: bring up heading into this week, and then what will
• 10:33
  Speaker 2: kind of segue there anyway.
• 10:35
  Speaker 4: Yeah, So I think it's a perk segue into the
• 10:38
  Speaker 4: weather that we have this week, because once again it
• 10:40
  Speaker 4: does look a little bit uncertain, But if we had
• 10:43
  Speaker 4: to guess right now, it looks fairly clear that the
• 10:46
  Speaker 4: winniest conditions of the first two days are going to
• 10:49
  Speaker 4: be Friday afternoon. Now it also matters less because on
• 10:53
  Speaker 4: Friday afternoon, no one's battling to make the cut. So
• 10:56
  Speaker 4: does it really matter? Probably not, But there's there's probably
• 11:02
  Speaker 4: over the first two days there might be like half
• 11:03
  Speaker 4: a stroke to a full stroke advantage for players who
• 11:06
  Speaker 4: start on pebble because pebble historically has been much more
• 11:10
  Speaker 4: affected by wind. Now it's more exposed on the cliff sides.
• 11:14
  Speaker 4: But I think it's also just a bit about like
• 11:16
  Speaker 4: the actual design of the golf course. You know, there's
• 11:19
  Speaker 4: the margin. When it becomes difficult, it's taking you into
• 11:23
  Speaker 4: lots of bogies and potential double bogies with penalty strokes,
• 11:27
  Speaker 4: and when it's calm, it's birdihle after birdie hole, and
• 11:30
  Speaker 4: so the scoring variants I think is just higher on pebble,
• 11:32
  Speaker 4: and that's why historically we've seen it get more affected
• 11:35
  Speaker 4: by wind. So I would like my guys to play
• 11:38
  Speaker 4: as long as the rest of the field isn't on
• 11:41
  Speaker 4: this as well, and we get you know, you know,
• 11:42
  Speaker 4: we don't get the same type of ownership movement on
• 11:45
  Speaker 4: other players that we did last week. If all else
• 11:48
  Speaker 4: is equal, I would like my guys to play pebble
• 11:51
  Speaker 4: in the calmer conditions and then the more protected by
• 11:54
  Speaker 4: trees spyglass in the wind your conditions on Friday. Now, again,
• 11:59
  Speaker 4: it's not as impactful as it would have been if
• 12:01
  Speaker 4: there was a cut after two days, because then you
• 12:03
  Speaker 4: know that weather edge can be the difference between six
• 12:06
  Speaker 4: for six and four for six. Now everyone's gonna play
• 12:08
  Speaker 4: the weekend, but maybe you just get a little bit
• 12:10
  Speaker 4: of a head start. So it's not a huge thing,
• 12:12
  Speaker 4: but it is something to at least discuss.
• 12:14
  Speaker 2: Yeah, something to think about two when you're out there building,
• 12:16
  Speaker 2: and we'll look at it when we get to sort
• 12:17
  Speaker 2: of how it sets up. But again, the other thing
• 12:19
  Speaker 2: with a signature event, there's multiple different angles to approach
• 12:22
  Speaker 2: it from. I know some people want to talk a
• 12:23
  Speaker 2: little strategy on that type of stuff. I mean in
• 12:26
  Speaker 2: the Scotty conversation's gonna be a big one. But also
• 12:28
  Speaker 2: the tea times not as spread out like this is
• 12:30
  Speaker 2: more because of a course rotation than it is like
• 12:32
  Speaker 2: an AMPM type of thing, where it's like it could
• 12:35
  Speaker 2: be four hours apart and on full morning right off
• 12:38
  Speaker 2: the bat versus full afternoon type of thing. It's again,
• 12:40
  Speaker 2: it's not as spread apart because it's just the what
• 12:43
  Speaker 2: is like a two two and.
• 12:44
  Speaker 3: A half hour window or something like that.
• 12:45
  Speaker 2: It's just not as drastic as what we usually see.
• 12:47
  Speaker 2: All right, we'll get into more in just a second.
• 12:50
  Speaker 2: I do want to bring this up. I got a
• 12:51
  Speaker 2: note at alex we're gonna be talking about the one
• 12:54
  Speaker 2: and done segment, and so I gotta bring this up.
• 12:57
  Speaker 3: This is pretty insane.
• 12:58
  Speaker 2: It could be like the most massive overlay we've seen ever,
• 13:01
  Speaker 2: or maybe at least four one second.
• 13:03
  Speaker 3: I got it there a while.
• 13:05
  Speaker 2: But splash Sports, you go to splash sports dot com
• 13:08
  Speaker 2: if you want to use promo code ship at a
• 13:09
  Speaker 2: referral code ship that you can.
• 13:11
  Speaker 3: But it's not really about that.
• 13:12
  Speaker 2: This is the biggest overlay opportunity I've seen in quite
• 13:15
  Speaker 2: some time. We are less than twenty four hours until
• 13:18
  Speaker 2: Locke and there is less than twenty four percent when
• 13:21
  Speaker 2: it opened this morning. My joke was gonna be there's less.
• 13:23
  Speaker 2: I think we're just over now, but it's there was
• 13:25
  Speaker 2: less than twenty four percent into the tournament. So this
• 13:27
  Speaker 2: is a one hundred dollars one and done that they
• 13:30
  Speaker 2: put on. It is a one hundred and fifty thousand dollars guaranteed.
• 13:34
  Speaker 2: There's some bonus prizes, a ton eligibility there, but twenty
• 13:37
  Speaker 2: thousand to first twenty three hundred and up for top ten.
• 13:40
  Speaker 3: It's like a six hundred dollar mid cash. A little
• 13:42
  Speaker 3: less of the field gets paid.
• 13:44
  Speaker 2: But we didn't do all Like there's already one of
• 13:45
  Speaker 2: dons that people are in that have segments and balanced everything.
• 13:49
  Speaker 2: The structure is pretty balanced from one hundred and fifty K,
• 13:51
  Speaker 2: twenty K and two K.
• 13:53
  Speaker 3: But we also are ship at Nation. We're playing to
• 13:55
  Speaker 3: win it.
• 13:56
  Speaker 2: It's not like split it or balance it nation like
• 13:59
  Speaker 2: what we're trying to get an tournament top prize up there,
• 14:01
  Speaker 2: kind of like what we did with ship at Games,
• 14:02
  Speaker 2: where not everybody's gonna be able to win, but whoever
• 14:04
  Speaker 2: does win is gonna get a nice prize one hundred bucks.
• 14:07
  Speaker 3: To get into this, we'll cover one and done at
• 14:10
  Speaker 3: the end.
• 14:10
  Speaker 2: From like the full year perspective, this a little bit
• 14:13
  Speaker 2: different starting at pebble, but we want to sort of
• 14:15
  Speaker 2: wait the super Bowl to wrap up in all them
• 14:16
  Speaker 2: but the biggest thing currently four hundred and twenty three
• 14:19
  Speaker 2: entries out of sixteen sixty seven. So you got a
• 14:23
  Speaker 2: you know, plenty of time, but only less than a
• 14:25
  Speaker 2: day basically to get into this thing.
• 14:27
  Speaker 3: You'll just bring it up from there. Anything else you
• 14:29
  Speaker 3: want to touch on for this week before we get.
• 14:31
  Speaker 4: Into it, No, I will definitely be playing that. That's
• 14:34
  Speaker 4: that's quite the overlay opportunity.
• 14:35
  Speaker 3: So love that massive for sure, So check that out
• 14:38
  Speaker 3: spots sports dot com.
• 14:39
  Speaker 2: Now typically we go in, I don't if you want
• 14:40
  Speaker 2: to recap anything else, but I'd like to talk about
• 14:42
  Speaker 2: the weather for this week.
• 14:44
  Speaker 3: I think that's you know, you did just chat on
• 14:45
  Speaker 3: it a little bit. I'm not sure if you want
• 14:46
  Speaker 3: to bring up windy and show that off, and then
• 14:48
  Speaker 3: I want to lean sort of right.
• 14:49
  Speaker 2: Into the Scotty conversation. I think and then the chalk
• 14:52
  Speaker 2: build from there.
• 14:53
  Speaker 3: From there, But is there is there anything else from
• 14:54
  Speaker 3: a course fit perspective that you want to talk about
• 14:56
  Speaker 3: or just this event as a whole.
• 14:58
  Speaker 4: Yeah, this course fit model is honestly a little bit annoying.
• 15:02
  Speaker 4: It's every single aspect of golf driving, distance, driving accuracy, approach,
• 15:08
  Speaker 4: playing around the green, play are less predictive than usual
• 15:11
  Speaker 4: here except for putting. Putting is a little bit more
• 15:14
  Speaker 4: predictive than usual. So what does this mean? Well, it
• 15:17
  Speaker 4: means that when we look at our projections over at
• 15:19
  Speaker 4: FT and fantasy that guys who are popping are like
• 15:22
  Speaker 4: Harry Hall, Danny McCarthy. I don't want those guys to pop.
• 15:26
  Speaker 4: And one of the reasons why I don't want those
• 15:28
  Speaker 4: guys to pop is because my intuition says, you can't
• 15:30
  Speaker 4: win a golf tournament. You can't contend in a golf
• 15:32
  Speaker 4: tournament on putting alone. You need more skills than that.
• 15:35
  Speaker 4: And so one thing I did also do this week
• 15:38
  Speaker 4: is I checked, Okay. You know, the courset model essentially says,
• 15:41
  Speaker 4: on average, how does each skill set translate into success?
• 15:45
  Speaker 4: But what I did beyond that was say, okay, but
• 15:47
  Speaker 4: is there are there any other skill sets that are
• 15:50
  Speaker 4: required here to help give you like a top ten
• 15:53
  Speaker 4: upside for the week. And the answer actually is yes,
• 15:57
  Speaker 4: iron play and around the green play are also very
• 15:59
  Speaker 4: much required to get that kind of upside. So that
• 16:02
  Speaker 4: made me feel better. That kind of takes you know,
• 16:03
  Speaker 4: Harry Hall a little bit more out of the equation.
• 16:05
  Speaker 4: His his iron plays atrociously. He does have a really
• 16:08
  Speaker 4: good short game, so we shouldn't be shocked if he contends. Uh,
• 16:11
  Speaker 4: but you know, it takes Danny a little bit out
• 16:13
  Speaker 4: because the iron play isn't there for him. It makes
• 16:16
  Speaker 4: minue Lee a tougher sell because the iron play is
• 16:19
  Speaker 4: I think minwu Ly's iron play is our worst projected
• 16:23
  Speaker 4: skill in the entire week, like the lowest you know
• 16:27
  Speaker 4: number of any skill for any player in this field.
• 16:32
  Speaker 4: So we do at least have that aspect of it.
• 16:35
  Speaker 4: But like driving, just both aspects of it, distance and
• 16:38
  Speaker 4: accuracy are a lot less predictive here than usual, so
• 16:41
  Speaker 4: we're kind of looking for those guys who okay, well,
• 16:43
  Speaker 4: who benefits from that skill being less predictive. And that
• 16:49
  Speaker 4: doesn't mean the great drivers can't do well here. We
• 16:51
  Speaker 4: just saw Rory last year, you know, Pat and I
• 16:53
  Speaker 4: talked about this a lot, like Rory had a ninety
• 16:55
  Speaker 4: eighth percentile outcome with the driver. For him, not just
• 16:58
  Speaker 4: for anybody, but for him, that was an un believable week.
• 17:01
  Speaker 4: And when an elite player is on their game at
• 17:04
  Speaker 4: that level, it doesn't matter what the course fit model says,
• 17:07
  Speaker 4: that skill is going to be a separator. So you know,
• 17:11
  Speaker 4: that's that's how Rory won last year. But it's also
• 17:14
  Speaker 4: true that Rory played well beyond the driver, and you know,
• 17:17
  Speaker 4: he went and then won the Players Championship when the
• 17:19
  Speaker 4: driver wasn't even working. So he was very clearly a
• 17:22
  Speaker 4: super complete player at that time last year and might
• 17:26
  Speaker 4: still be at this time. We'll see what he's got
• 17:28
  Speaker 4: at the start of the season. But yeah, from a
• 17:30
  Speaker 4: course fit perspective, it's just it's not as great as
• 17:33
  Speaker 4: last week, where we could lean into, you know, the
• 17:35
  Speaker 4: skill set that we already liked to lean into a
• 17:37
  Speaker 4: driver where accuracy and distance we're both more predictive last week.
• 17:41
  Speaker 4: It's less predictive this week. And I think the main
• 17:43
  Speaker 4: takeaway there is it's it's almost a little bit less
• 17:47
  Speaker 4: to me about Okay, who does that point to, and
• 17:50
  Speaker 4: a little more about what it just means for the
• 17:53
  Speaker 4: general field this week, which is it's a little bit
• 17:55
  Speaker 4: harder to predict who's going to do well. There's a
• 17:57
  Speaker 4: little bit more variance and volatility this week, and maybe
• 18:00
  Speaker 4: that means we get a little bit more contrarian or
• 18:02
  Speaker 4: we try a little bit harder to find the super
• 18:05
  Speaker 4: low bowned guys because it's kind of anybody's ballgame this week.
• 18:09
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I want to bring that up. Actually a scooter says,
• 18:11
  Speaker 2: helped me not suck at No Cut events. This guy
• 18:13
  Speaker 2: this week, guys on he didn't suck last week. I
• 18:15
  Speaker 2: saw some pretty big tickets you posted in our discord
• 18:17
  Speaker 2: on the betting side of things and everything else to
• 18:19
  Speaker 2: go with it. But the point being too you said
• 18:20
  Speaker 2: it like if the course fit model is showing that
• 18:22
  Speaker 2: there's a little bit more variants already, you have a
• 18:25
  Speaker 2: signature event, which, well, this is something that I think
• 18:28
  Speaker 2: people overlook as well. All field size is way smaller,
• 18:31
  Speaker 2: Like giddy up, let's go, we got a way smaller field.
• 18:33
  Speaker 3: Yeah, that's all way better players.
• 18:34
  Speaker 2: It's the best versus when you have one hundred and
• 18:36
  Speaker 2: fifty six you can like write off sixty of them
• 18:38
  Speaker 2: instantly probably and just say I'll just start there. And
• 18:40
  Speaker 2: that's why DraftKings does just throw one hundred guys into
• 18:43
  Speaker 2: the six k range on a random week.
• 18:44
  Speaker 3: It's like, uh, you.
• 18:45
  Speaker 2: Know, like eighty of these guys are useless to you,
• 18:47
  Speaker 2: but we'll just put them down there and then you
• 18:49
  Speaker 2: figure out the top of the board. Here there is
• 18:51
  Speaker 2: conversations to be had, So, like you said, embracing some
• 18:53
  Speaker 2: of that variants definitely not victory lapping anything on Thursday, Friday,
• 18:58
  Speaker 2: or even really Saturday. To be honest, when you got
• 19:00
  Speaker 2: a no cut, shit change is quick. So if you're
• 19:02
  Speaker 2: way behind on Thursday, I can tell you from experience
• 19:05
  Speaker 2: it means nothing. If you're way up there on Thursday,
• 19:07
  Speaker 2: I can also tell you it means nothing. So just
• 19:10
  Speaker 2: to give you guys a heads up, hopefully that makes
• 19:11
  Speaker 2: you feel a little bit better about it. It's yeah,
• 19:13
  Speaker 2: play your showdown contests. We've got some course rotation stuff,
• 19:17
  Speaker 2: you know. I think you can look at it from
• 19:18
  Speaker 2: that perspective. But the one thing I said about that,
• 19:21
  Speaker 2: you know, over in the discord today at ship it was,
• 19:23
  Speaker 2: you know, get everyone getting fired up for round one
• 19:25
  Speaker 2: showdown with like like spyglass pebble stuff. It's like the
• 19:29
  Speaker 2: round one is the toughest because you don't have anything
• 19:31
  Speaker 2: on the golfers yet, no stats, if any non casual. Again,
• 19:34
  Speaker 2: it's the most non casual event, like even a lot
• 19:37
  Speaker 2: of like the diehards don't even play round one, but
• 19:39
  Speaker 2: they'll get in on round one because of the way
• 19:41
  Speaker 2: it is. To me, it's like the least it's less
• 19:44
  Speaker 2: than you think, is what I'm trying to say for
• 19:45
  Speaker 2: like what your advantage would be. But I do think
• 19:47
  Speaker 2: that's something to think about.
• 19:48
  Speaker 4: So yeah, I've got data on that. Since since the
• 19:54
  Speaker 4: change to signature event status, these courses have played very
• 19:59
  Speaker 4: similar similarly in difficulty, and the biggest thing is Pebble
• 20:04
  Speaker 4: averages more birdies per round, but it also averages more
• 20:06
  Speaker 4: bogies per round, so you're you're getting a higher variance
• 20:11
  Speaker 4: of scoring. I think at Pebble is a pretty clear
• 20:14
  Speaker 4: way to view it. And and so especially in the
• 20:16
  Speaker 4: calmer days, I'm probably gonna go six Pebble zero spyglass.
• 20:21
  Speaker 4: If we do get the windy er Friday, I might
• 20:25
  Speaker 4: totally reverse that. I might only you know, get a
• 20:28
  Speaker 4: few spyglass guys. I'm not sure exactly how I'd handle it,
• 20:30
  Speaker 4: But if it's calm, I will be going six pebble.
• 20:34
  Speaker 3: Yeah, and I guess a couple quick questions that popped up.
• 20:37
  Speaker 2: We like to get these relic We said, if you
• 20:38
  Speaker 2: guys have other questions and you're watching this on playback
• 20:41
  Speaker 2: or replay, make sure to put them in the comments
• 20:44
  Speaker 2: for us, or just any thought provoking thoughts, like I
• 20:46
  Speaker 2: heard you say this and I thought it was really interesting.
• 20:47
  Speaker 3: Because this we're looking at all of those.
• 20:49
  Speaker 2: We can't respond to them all, but I think the
• 20:50
  Speaker 2: main thing is we'll be bringing up at least one
• 20:52
  Speaker 2: and picking a winner each week, so you know, put
• 20:55
  Speaker 2: your comment in after what's what's your thoughts on this?
• 20:57
  Speaker 3: Real quick course history in general versus.
• 20:59
  Speaker 2: Taking in accounts not taking it so much too into
• 21:02
  Speaker 2: account this week with it being a no cut event, I.
• 21:05
  Speaker 4: Don't ever take course history into account, so it doesn't
• 21:08
  Speaker 4: change for me and.
• 21:09
  Speaker 2: I can already know why we have such a good
• 21:11
  Speaker 2: chemistry of our friends, because yeah, that's why I said
• 21:14
  Speaker 2: to somebody before, like course history.
• 21:15
  Speaker 4: And let me elaborate on that on that for a second.
• 21:18
  Speaker 4: By the way, there's so course history is always going
• 21:22
  Speaker 4: to be something that people look at, and the reason
• 21:23
  Speaker 4: why it's always going to be something that people look
• 21:25
  Speaker 4: at is because there is some signal there. My opinion
• 21:28
  Speaker 4: is that the signal that exists in course history is
• 21:31
  Speaker 4: course fit signal. At FTN, we have a course fit model.
• 21:34
  Speaker 4: We are directly measuring course fit in a very analytically
• 21:39
  Speaker 4: sound and robust way. I don't need to then go
• 21:41
  Speaker 4: look at course history to tell me about the fit.
• 21:44
  Speaker 4: I already have the fit for each player. Course history
• 21:46
  Speaker 4: is not telling me anything that the course fit model
• 21:49
  Speaker 4: is not telling me. So I don't want to look
• 21:51
  Speaker 4: at that because at that point, all I'm looking at
• 21:53
  Speaker 4: is noise, and I can be, you know, steered in
• 21:55
  Speaker 4: the wrong direction if you don't have access to a
• 21:57
  Speaker 4: course fit model, and like everyone at you know, everyone
• 22:00
  Speaker 4: Chip it has course fit stuff. I know you guys
• 22:02
  Speaker 4: do course fit stuff as well. If you have access
• 22:05
  Speaker 4: to course fit stuff, whether it's ours at FTN, yours,
• 22:08
  Speaker 4: even data Golf's like, you shouldn't be looking at course history.
• 22:11
  Speaker 4: It's not telling you anything beyond the fit analysis that's
• 22:13
  Speaker 4: already being done. So you're just looking at noise, and
• 22:17
  Speaker 4: you're looking at tiny samples in a sport where sample
• 22:20
  Speaker 4: size means everything. So it's just I think again, like
• 22:25
  Speaker 4: if you know, I think you mentioned it, like your
• 22:28
  Speaker 4: dad does the one and done. My dad does the
• 22:30
  Speaker 4: one and done. My dad does not do any analysis.
• 22:34
  Speaker 4: It makes sense for him to do a quick Google
• 22:36
  Speaker 4: search of how the player that he's picking has done
• 22:38
  Speaker 4: at the course because it's the only course fit signal
• 22:41
  Speaker 4: that he's going to get. If you have better course
• 22:43
  Speaker 4: fit signal than the course history, you should not be
• 22:46
  Speaker 4: looking at course history. That's my that's my little.
• 22:48
  Speaker 2: Bit like breakdown, because yeah, my dad's big course history guy.
• 22:51
  Speaker 2: When it comes down to that, that's his thing, right.
• 22:53
  Speaker 2: He goes on whatever it is, like golf betting system
• 22:55
  Speaker 2: or whatever, the one that has like the combination stats
• 22:58
  Speaker 2: of their recent form and their course history, Like that's
• 23:01
  Speaker 2: all he has.
• 23:02
  Speaker 3: Now.
• 23:02
  Speaker 2: I don't know how much he uses it, but I
• 23:03
  Speaker 2: did give him a membership, Hey I can, I can
• 23:06
  Speaker 2: kind of get you one of those.
• 23:06
  Speaker 3: I'll hook you up and get you a ship a
• 23:08
  Speaker 3: nation membership.
• 23:08
  Speaker 2: I don't know how much he uses it, but certainly
• 23:11
  Speaker 2: did hook him up there, So I appreciate the question
• 23:13
  Speaker 2: from go collect.
• 23:15
  Speaker 3: There was one quick thing I just want.
• 23:16
  Speaker 2: To note fast because obviously we're huge overlay potential, but
• 23:18
  Speaker 2: that is for anyone the Splash contest splash sports dot com.
• 23:22
  Speaker 2: Even if you don't use our referral code, you'll ship it.
• 23:24
  Speaker 2: Don't have to like, just go sign up for the
• 23:25
  Speaker 2: one and done for one hundred bucks. It works out
• 23:27
  Speaker 2: to less than four dollars per event, and you pick
• 23:30
  Speaker 2: a golfer each week.
• 23:31
  Speaker 3: That's it. It can't get more simple.
• 23:32
  Speaker 2: Who's gonna win me the most money this week? I
• 23:34
  Speaker 2: think this golfer? And then you can't use them again.
• 23:37
  Speaker 2: One and done.
• 23:38
  Speaker 3: You get it. There we go, So the next one?
• 23:41
  Speaker 3: Do you think the rain?
• 23:42
  Speaker 2: So yeah, Gannon was out there yesterday super wet, right,
• 23:45
  Speaker 2: you know some of the guys I think he said
• 23:46
  Speaker 2: Rory did the full eighteen, but not many other golfers did,
• 23:49
  Speaker 2: if at all. So he said it was soaked. Possible
• 23:52
  Speaker 2: rain today? If so, do we think off the tea
• 23:54
  Speaker 2: matter is more than normal on a wet course? I
• 23:56
  Speaker 2: know we see and I think what Wyndham Clark we
• 23:58
  Speaker 2: see Rory guys? I mean, yes, good drivers of the
• 24:00
  Speaker 2: ball and long drivers of the ball do end up
• 24:02
  Speaker 2: doing good in golf tournaments. It kind of helps, but
• 24:05
  Speaker 2: that could be said about a lot of guys. And
• 24:07
  Speaker 2: then people that you don't even think are long in
• 24:09
  Speaker 2: some cases are still hitting it like three ten and
• 24:12
  Speaker 2: you're like, oh, but they're not three thirty, okay, But
• 24:14
  Speaker 2: they're still pounding it out there, and then they've got
• 24:16
  Speaker 2: other skill sets to go with it. So what's your
• 24:18
  Speaker 2: thoughts on this question here?
• 24:19
  Speaker 3: From Ryan?
• 24:19
  Speaker 4: I think distance could spike a little bit, And in
• 24:21
  Speaker 4: the past, like as of about three years ago, well
• 24:25
  Speaker 4: before it became a signature event, we actually did see
• 24:28
  Speaker 4: distance as a bit of a separating skill here. I
• 24:30
  Speaker 4: think that's partially just because it was such a weaker
• 24:32
  Speaker 4: field that the longer guys were typically the better players.
• 24:36
  Speaker 4: So there is a chance that distance is gonna spike,
• 24:40
  Speaker 4: but I don't think it'll be it'll be a ton,
• 24:42
  Speaker 4: And I don't think accuracy is gonna spike. Accuracy might
• 24:44
  Speaker 4: even go down, just because, like the reason why distance
• 24:47
  Speaker 4: or the reason why driving isn't very predictive here is
• 24:50
  Speaker 4: because there are just so many holes where everyone's hitting
• 24:53
  Speaker 4: the ball to the exact same spot. People are laying
• 24:56
  Speaker 4: up on number one, they're you know, they're semi laying
• 24:59
  Speaker 4: up number three, or they're just ripping it around the corner,
• 25:03
  Speaker 4: and you know, a really kind of awkward drive, and
• 25:05
  Speaker 4: then they're laying up on four, they're laying up on eight,
• 25:08
  Speaker 4: on nine to ten, nobody's aiming down the middle of
• 25:11
  Speaker 4: the fairway because the miss right is so drastic that
• 25:15
  Speaker 4: you know, guys are gonna miss a little bit left
• 25:17
  Speaker 4: after having made a better swing than guys who end
• 25:20
  Speaker 4: up in the fairway right. So you just have like
• 25:22
  Speaker 4: this really kind of diminished aspect, diminished effect of driving
• 25:27
  Speaker 4: because very very rarely are guys actually being tested how
• 25:32
  Speaker 4: long and straight can you hit the ball on this drive.
• 25:34
  Speaker 4: It's it's just a really unique course in that way.
• 25:36
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I want to get to the Scotty conversation, I
• 25:39
  Speaker 2: think next, but just real quick. So my man Kenny
• 25:42
  Speaker 2: says that that was me the course of history and twy,
• 25:44
  Speaker 2: I know you wrote I'm happy to see you here
• 25:45
  Speaker 2: because I know you wrote your own obituary in our
• 25:48
  Speaker 2: discord last week.
• 25:49
  Speaker 3: He plays very high stakes Nosebleeds.
• 25:51
  Speaker 2: Have had some good conversations with him, and I appreciate
• 25:53
  Speaker 2: him always sharing with the community and talking about He
• 25:55
  Speaker 2: showed off his portfolio from last year. We did a
• 25:58
  Speaker 2: little Mastermind project that you've been on with me as well,
• 26:00
  Speaker 2: and he went through that. He was the first interview
• 26:02
  Speaker 2: to do for Mastermind as well. But he did show
• 26:04
  Speaker 2: off his three million dollars in buy in, so it's
• 26:07
  Speaker 2: public so I can talk about he show. He showed
• 26:08
  Speaker 2: off three million dollars in buy ins and talked about
• 26:10
  Speaker 2: his goals and sort of holding himself accountable coming into
• 26:14
  Speaker 2: that playthrough for twenty twenty six.
• 26:16
  Speaker 3: But you hopefully now that you're here in the obituary
• 26:19
  Speaker 3: wasn't real.
• 26:19
  Speaker 2: Thank god, Hopefully you put course history in that grave instead,
• 26:22
  Speaker 2: my friend, because it's like Alex just to explained, not
• 26:24
  Speaker 2: something you really should require last one and.
• 26:27
  Speaker 3: Then we'll move it along.
• 26:28
  Speaker 2: But with it being a no cut event, our man
• 26:31
  Speaker 2: Sean Sully shout out to him, get me on the
• 26:33
  Speaker 2: Seattle Seahawks on Sunday, the Big Seahawks lover.
• 26:36
  Speaker 3: He got the job done there.
• 26:37
  Speaker 2: The Patriots did not show up at all, and the
• 26:39
  Speaker 2: Seahawks defense most certainly did. But he says, with it
• 26:42
  Speaker 2: being a no cut event, are you more willing to
• 26:44
  Speaker 2: go all in on certain golfers you like? Or are you
• 26:47
  Speaker 2: more willing to go all in on certain golfers you
• 26:48
  Speaker 2: like the most? Since you were guaranteed four.
• 26:50
  Speaker 3: Days I would be curious to know.
• 26:53
  Speaker 2: Like I talk about, like play lighter, play tighter, if
• 26:55
  Speaker 2: I'm playing twenty lineups, I actually have no problem personally
• 26:58
  Speaker 2: of like locking your guy because it's you're in or
• 27:00
  Speaker 2: you're out. The difference is like a twenty max. People
• 27:03
  Speaker 2: mistake less lineups. You know, twenty instead of one to fifty.
• 27:06
  Speaker 2: That's great, but they mistake that being still a small field.
• 27:09
  Speaker 2: A lot of those twenty maxes still have a massive
• 27:11
  Speaker 2: field that you're up again. So if it's a Scotty
• 27:14
  Speaker 2: week for me, I could easily just lock Scotty in
• 27:16
  Speaker 2: twenty max and say, okay, I'm in on Scotty and
• 27:18
  Speaker 2: let's roll it.
• 27:18
  Speaker 3: But what do you think about this? And does the
• 27:20
  Speaker 3: portfolio size really matter to you too?
• 27:23
  Speaker 4: I'm not sure that it really changes this. This definitely
• 27:27
  Speaker 4: seems to me like a bit of an MM question,
• 27:29
  Speaker 4: like are are you more willing to go one hundred
• 27:31
  Speaker 4: percent or eighty percent exposure on a guy? I don't Again,
• 27:35
  Speaker 4: I don't know if it changes. If if I had
• 27:37
  Speaker 4: to guess, I think you would actually work in the
• 27:39
  Speaker 4: opposite direction that it's you're you're getting less separation between
• 27:44
  Speaker 4: your favorite guys and the guys around them because everyone's
• 27:48
  Speaker 4: guaranteed four day, so you're losing the you know, the
• 27:51
  Speaker 4: the higher likelihood of your guys making the cut and
• 27:53
  Speaker 4: separating that way. So I think it's the other way around.
• 27:57
  Speaker 4: But you might be able to make an argument that
• 27:59
  Speaker 4: there's less variance because everyone gets four rounds, and so
• 28:03
  Speaker 4: you know, there's you're less likely to get burned by
• 28:05
  Speaker 4: the guys you love just because they have a one
• 28:08
  Speaker 4: bad day early on and now they have two extra
• 28:10
  Speaker 4: days to make it up. So it's a it's a
• 28:12
  Speaker 4: hard one to answer. It's a it's a kind of
• 28:14
  Speaker 4: a fun theoretical question. My gut is that the answer
• 28:17
  Speaker 4: is it very very very like minutely changes and it's
• 28:22
  Speaker 4: not really worth thinking about. You should just kind of,
• 28:24
  Speaker 4: you know, take your normal approach.
• 28:25
  Speaker 2: Okay, are we good to go to Scotty conversation. I'm
• 28:28
  Speaker 2: gonna add one more point on this, but then we'll
• 28:29
  Speaker 2: go to Scotty. So I just want to say that
• 28:30
  Speaker 2: I just made this one up. You know, I love
• 28:32
  Speaker 2: a good one liner. But I think, look, if this
• 28:34
  Speaker 2: is mmy and the twenty mac situation and stuff, like
• 28:37
  Speaker 2: I said, I think it's again it's gonna be obviously
• 28:39
  Speaker 2: how your risk, you know, risk adversity, things like what
• 28:42
  Speaker 2: are you willing to do, and knowing that if you're
• 28:44
  Speaker 2: right on Scotty, it's gonna mean well if it's if
• 28:45
  Speaker 2: you're wrong on scut I think you did this last week, Sean,
• 28:48
  Speaker 2: if I recall correct, I think he locked Scotty and
• 28:50
  Speaker 2: you know he made his way back up.
• 28:51
  Speaker 3: But obviously other guys got there, so I think that's
• 28:53
  Speaker 3: part of it.
• 28:54
  Speaker 2: But even if you're a single entry player, people say
• 28:56
  Speaker 2: I'm a single entry player, but I play five different
• 28:58
  Speaker 2: single entries. I play the I played the twelve dollars,
• 29:01
  Speaker 2: I play the twenty seven, I play the fifty, and
• 29:03
  Speaker 2: I play the hundred or whatever else gets mixed in.
• 29:05
  Speaker 2: I'm just saying, even if you're doing that, I just
• 29:07
  Speaker 2: made this one up. But don't let your conviction lead
• 29:12
  Speaker 2: to contradiction. And what I mean by that is when
• 29:14
  Speaker 2: if you have conviction on Scotty, and you have high
• 29:18
  Speaker 2: conviction on them, why are you trying to like you're
• 29:20
  Speaker 2: just going away to go away at that point, if
• 29:22
  Speaker 2: you really think it's Scotty and Scotty lineups are gonna
• 29:24
  Speaker 2: be the ones that get there, then I don't care
• 29:25
  Speaker 2: if you have five.
• 29:26
  Speaker 3: Single entries, three single entries, one hundred and fift, whatever
• 29:29
  Speaker 3: you're doing.
• 29:30
  Speaker 2: If that's how you feel and you don't want to
• 29:32
  Speaker 2: spread it out and you're good with that risk, I
• 29:34
  Speaker 2: wouldn't contradict yourself in those other lineups. Now, if I'm
• 29:36
  Speaker 2: playing like a three max, I might have two lineups
• 29:39
  Speaker 2: that are cored up and very similar to each other,
• 29:42
  Speaker 2: and say, look, I got conviction on this setup, but
• 29:45
  Speaker 2: I'm not sure about my last three value plays, so
• 29:47
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna mix them up, just to how you talked
• 29:48
  Speaker 2: about it before playing a three max, like a single entry.
• 29:51
  Speaker 2: But then I may go with my third one and
• 29:54
  Speaker 2: say I'm gonna sort of play a Scotty lineup and
• 29:56
  Speaker 2: these two knot Scotty. That's just a way you could
• 29:58
  Speaker 2: do it to balance your PORTFOLI if you're kind of
• 30:00
  Speaker 2: I'm uncertain, but if you have full conviction, there's not
• 30:03
  Speaker 2: really as much.
• 30:04
  Speaker 3: Need for contradiction. You can just roll with those lineups.
• 30:07
  Speaker 2: So yeah, I really just wanted to say that because
• 30:08
  Speaker 2: it rhymed, but I also do I mean it, and
• 30:11
  Speaker 2: I think I can put good meaning behind it in that.
• 30:14
  Speaker 3: That's how I would think about it. Doesn't mean it's right.
• 30:16
  Speaker 2: It's just how I would think about spending my money
• 30:18
  Speaker 2: if I was putting it out there. Because you are
• 30:20
  Speaker 2: spending money on this stuff, so I want you to
• 30:22
  Speaker 2: do it in the best way possible.
• 30:23
  Speaker 4: Yeah, it's the same concept as like you want to
• 30:25
  Speaker 4: differentiate the part of the lineup that you're most uncertain
• 30:28
  Speaker 4: about that you think this is the weak spot of
• 30:29
  Speaker 4: the lineup. I will give myself as many chances to
• 30:32
  Speaker 4: get the weakest spot correct as I differentiate. And that
• 30:35
  Speaker 4: means that you're not you're not hedging on the part
• 30:40
  Speaker 4: of the lineup that you have the most conviction on.
• 30:42
  Speaker 4: And if that's Scotty, then don't play in on Scotty lineup.
• 30:45
  Speaker 4: If if it's not Scotty, If if you feel like, Okay,
• 30:48
  Speaker 4: I'm really confident in these two or three seventy two
• 30:51
  Speaker 4: hundred dollars value plays, but I don't know if I
• 30:54
  Speaker 4: should pair them with Scotty and two other seven K
• 30:57
  Speaker 4: guys or with Sea who had Key and Chris gotter up. Okay,
• 31:02
  Speaker 4: now you do one Scotty and you do one of
• 31:05
  Speaker 4: the of the balance builds. So whatever your conviction is,
• 31:08
  Speaker 4: build around that and differentiate elsewhere.
• 31:11
  Speaker 2: This was a key point. That's why I tried to,
• 31:12
  Speaker 2: you know, put this out earlier. Kenny so Keny coming
• 31:14
  Speaker 2: back up with a good one. It's like, it's not
• 31:16
  Speaker 2: just about Scotty. That is the whole point, And this
• 31:18
  Speaker 2: is the conversation we're about to get into again that
• 31:20
  Speaker 2: we've got into the last two weeks. It is about
• 31:22
  Speaker 2: the rest. But that's what I'm saying. If someone has
• 31:24
  Speaker 2: conviction on the value plays that all makes Scotty fit
• 31:27
  Speaker 2: and they like Scotty, well, then it's pretty clear where
• 31:29
  Speaker 2: you should go. Like, you have thirty value plays you
• 31:31
  Speaker 2: gotta work through, and you love Scotty, well, guess what,
• 31:34
  Speaker 2: you can make a lot of good lineups around that,
• 31:36
  Speaker 2: whether it's multiple single entries or a twenty max or
• 31:38
  Speaker 2: whatever it is. If you don't like an entire range
• 31:42
  Speaker 2: and your conviction is this all sucks and you're gonna
• 31:43
  Speaker 2: start with Scotty, You're gonna have to find some of
• 31:45
  Speaker 2: that stuff.
• 31:45
  Speaker 3: But yeah, think about it as a whole.
• 31:47
  Speaker 2: The game we play still involves six options, and that's
• 31:49
  Speaker 2: why we always talk about when people get about get
• 31:51
  Speaker 2: up in their you know, feelings about a donkey chock
• 31:53
  Speaker 2: piece getting there it's like it's not a vacuum. It's
• 31:56
  Speaker 2: not a matchup bet between that you can. We talk
• 31:58
  Speaker 2: about Corey Connors and Godrup the he want. We like
• 32:01
  Speaker 2: Corey Connors. We thought he was the best chok. He
• 32:03
  Speaker 2: did not do the best, we said, But there's a
• 32:05
  Speaker 2: guy like gott Her up right next to him who
• 32:07
  Speaker 2: could win this thing. Like he's he's an outlier that
• 32:09
  Speaker 2: he could just he has huge ceiling. If he gets there,
• 32:11
  Speaker 2: he could blow up in your face as well. But
• 32:13
  Speaker 2: everyone always takes it as like either or you have
• 32:17
  Speaker 2: six spots to fill and both of them could fit
• 32:19
  Speaker 2: quite comfortably into a lineup. So hopefully that helps that
• 32:21
  Speaker 2: you guys can think about it. The code is ship.
• 32:24
  Speaker 2: It just s hi, p it T. Let's go to Scotty.
• 32:27
  Speaker 2: Let's start me off. I know you had some.
• 32:29
  Speaker 3: Amazing math over in your discord that really explains it well.
• 32:33
  Speaker 3: But I think you kind of said pre show, like
• 32:34
  Speaker 3: you got a way that you can just sort of
• 32:35
  Speaker 3: break it down to people this week, give me your
• 32:37
  Speaker 3: overarching Scotty thoughts, and then you could bring whatever angle
• 32:41
  Speaker 3: you want into it on this slate.
• 32:42
  Speaker 4: Particularly so a few weeks ago we did like a
• 32:45
  Speaker 4: hypothetical before the slates started of what are you giving
• 32:50
  Speaker 4: up when you play Scotty, And we looked at, you know,
• 32:52
  Speaker 4: the likelihood of getting all three We looked at you know,
• 32:56
  Speaker 4: I think it was Henley see what can and DECKI
• 33:01
  Speaker 4: or something like that, Yeah, against Scotty, Patrick Rodgers and
• 33:05
  Speaker 4: Sam Stevens. And what we saw was the likelihood of
• 33:08
  Speaker 4: getting all three guys in the top five, all three
• 33:10
  Speaker 4: guys in the top ten, all three guys in the
• 33:11
  Speaker 4: top twenty. That's where the disadvantage for Scotty lineups slide.
• 33:16
  Speaker 4: And what we saw last week was actually like a
• 33:19
  Speaker 4: perfect example of the shortcomings of Scotty lineups. And to start,
• 33:25
  Speaker 4: it's worth noting last week was about as well as
• 33:28
  Speaker 4: the cheapies could have done for Scotty lineups. Scotty lineups
• 33:32
  Speaker 4: averaged four point nine cuts made to three point six
• 33:35
  Speaker 4: cuts made for non Scotty lineups, which means that the
• 33:38
  Speaker 4: difference wasn't just about Scotty making the cut, It was
• 33:41
  Speaker 4: literally about guys that you had to use to fit with.
• 33:44
  Speaker 4: Scotty actually made cuts at a higher rate than like
• 33:47
  Speaker 4: the more balanced guys, So a very unique week in
• 33:50
  Speaker 4: that sense. It couldn't go better for Scotty, and yet
• 33:54
  Speaker 4: still non Scotty lineups were more likely to have three
• 33:58
  Speaker 4: guys in the top twenty. They were three times more
• 34:01
  Speaker 4: likely to have four guys in the top twenty. They
• 34:03
  Speaker 4: were six and a half times more likely to have
• 34:06
  Speaker 4: five guys in the top twenty. They were almost twice
• 34:08
  Speaker 4: as likely to have three guys in the top ten
• 34:11
  Speaker 4: and in the fifty five dollars. With about fifteen hundred people,
• 34:15
  Speaker 4: zero of the two hundred and twenty four Scotty lineups
• 34:17
  Speaker 4: had four guys in the top ten two point two percent,
• 34:20
  Speaker 4: So thirty one of the fourteen to twenty eight lineups
• 34:23
  Speaker 4: that did not have Scotty had four guys in the
• 34:26
  Speaker 4: top ten. When you use Scotty, the biggest obstacle is
• 34:30
  Speaker 4: the upside of the cheap guys. They just can't contend
• 34:33
  Speaker 4: often enough to give the lineup as a whole the
• 34:36
  Speaker 4: upside you need to take down tournaments. From there, we
• 34:39
  Speaker 4: can segue into this event and say, okay, but is
• 34:42
  Speaker 4: a signature event, smaller field different because now that seven
• 34:47
  Speaker 4: k range instead of being guys like Michael Brennan and
• 34:52
  Speaker 4: to Kumi Kanaya, it's Minwu Lee JT. Posts and Keith Mitchell,
• 34:56
  Speaker 4: Wyndham Clark s Hithagala Akshavati like guys who actually have
• 34:59
  Speaker 4: real upside. So it does change a little bit in
• 35:02
  Speaker 4: that regard. So I'm curious to hear your thoughts, tamba On.
• 35:05
  Speaker 4: Is that different enough where now the Scotti lineups have upside,
• 35:09
  Speaker 4: But there's also an added variable this week where now
• 35:13
  Speaker 4: the field is strong enough that one of the things
• 35:15
  Speaker 4: that's going to potentially keep Scotty's ownership in check, it's
• 35:19
  Speaker 4: the fact that people do want to play the other
• 35:21
  Speaker 4: guys up top. They want to play Rory, they want
• 35:23
  Speaker 4: to play Tommy and Hovelin and Sea Wu in a decade,
• 35:26
  Speaker 4: like all the guys who have been playing well are there,
• 35:30
  Speaker 4: and now we also have Rory, Tommy, guys we haven't
• 35:33
  Speaker 4: seen yet this year Russell Henley, who are are common
• 35:36
  Speaker 4: you know DFS player favorites. So it's a very interesting
• 35:40
  Speaker 4: Scotty decision this week because there are now two reasons
• 35:44
  Speaker 4: why we maybe shouldn't play Scotty. But one of those
• 35:47
  Speaker 4: reasons the upside of the cheaper guys I think is
• 35:50
  Speaker 4: diminished at least a little bit based on this field.
• 35:53
  Speaker 2: Yeah, part of it is also too like you look
• 35:54
  Speaker 2: at it. You mean you mentioned some of the names,
• 35:56
  Speaker 2: and there's some ups and downs where like Akshay was
• 35:59
  Speaker 2: sixty nine hundred last week, he went up to seventy three. Uh,
• 36:02
  Speaker 2: you know he's he's fine down there. I'm just saying,
• 36:04
  Speaker 2: like the example, like you met Kidiyama, he was what
• 36:06
  Speaker 2: seventy five seventy six hundred last week, he's seventy three.
• 36:09
  Speaker 2: Some of it's not as changed as people think. Some
• 36:11
  Speaker 2: people were saying, oh my, not look at the talent
• 36:13
  Speaker 2: down here. But the bigger thing I'm wondering about, and
• 36:15
  Speaker 2: we'll get to this in a second talking about the
• 36:17
  Speaker 2: chalk build.
• 36:17
  Speaker 3: But again, yes, there's guys down there you can play
• 36:20
  Speaker 3: with Scotty.
• 36:20
  Speaker 2: I think there's more of them than we saw last
• 36:23
  Speaker 2: week because you know, you know, the cup the cut
• 36:25
  Speaker 2: factor matter. This is a no cut you know, when
• 36:27
  Speaker 2: you do have the McGreevy, Smalley, Rogers, Yager, penge Hoey,
• 36:32
  Speaker 2: who else, Grazerman. All these guys are sub seven K.
• 36:35
  Speaker 2: So it's like, those are possibilities that can make a
• 36:38
  Speaker 2: Scotty lineup work, especially if Scotty has a good week.
• 36:40
  Speaker 2: But what's most interesting to me is about some of
• 36:43
  Speaker 2: those guys getting pushed down. Is now you start to
• 36:45
  Speaker 2: see like Mari cow Is seventy eight hundred again, how
• 36:48
  Speaker 2: do people adapt.
• 36:49
  Speaker 3: I'm not lobbying for a play. I'm explaining stuff.
• 36:51
  Speaker 2: I know people hate more cow But like Harris English
• 36:53
  Speaker 2: seventy seven hundred, Burns eight thousand, Cam Young eighty one hundred,
• 36:59
  Speaker 2: Oberg eighty three hundred, Ben Griffin eighty four hundred, these
• 37:03
  Speaker 2: were nine and ten k guys, some.
• 37:04
  Speaker 3: Of them in weeks previous.
• 37:06
  Speaker 2: So do you think that means like more people can
• 37:09
  Speaker 2: lean in to this, especially with how well see Wu
• 37:13
  Speaker 2: and Gotta Rop and and guys like that are playing
• 37:15
  Speaker 2: in the nine k's And then you know, I guess
• 37:17
  Speaker 2: my biggest fear is not really a fear, but just gave.
• 37:20
  Speaker 2: We have to get ownership, right. That's the key component
• 37:22
  Speaker 2: to it all is like the Rory Fleetwood thing. I'm
• 37:25
  Speaker 2: going a couple different places here, but it's all tied together.
• 37:27
  Speaker 2: Is like the Rory Fleetwood thing can go one of
• 37:29
  Speaker 2: two ways. People haven't seen them in a while, don't
• 37:33
  Speaker 2: want to go to Scotty and they're like, all right,
• 37:34
  Speaker 2: I'll go to those guys now.
• 37:36
  Speaker 3: But also It can sometimes be that effect of like
• 37:39
  Speaker 3: Roy should.
• 37:40
  Speaker 2: Get something no matter what, but like Fleetwood is over
• 37:42
  Speaker 2: ten k, you know, those that don't know what he's
• 37:45
  Speaker 2: been doing in different places and all this stuff this
• 37:46
  Speaker 2: last year, Like you know, maybe they're on a rock somewhere,
• 37:49
  Speaker 2: but I'm just saying, no, I'm noting that. And then
• 37:51
  Speaker 2: they're saying, maybe I can just leave those guys out
• 37:53
  Speaker 2: and I don't even need to go to Scotty and
• 37:55
  Speaker 2: I can just start with Sea Wu and then I'll
• 37:57
  Speaker 2: still be able to fit the Jake Nap at seventy
• 37:59
  Speaker 2: nine eight Cam Young.
• 38:01
  Speaker 3: So give me, give me thoughts on that. I guess
• 38:03
  Speaker 3: slipping it back to you just on a on a
• 38:04
  Speaker 3: quick note.
• 38:06
  Speaker 4: Yeah, So I think part of you know that answer
• 38:08
  Speaker 4: is like I do think part of the field is
• 38:10
  Speaker 4: just gonna say, I'm just gonna keep riding the hot hand.
• 38:12
  Speaker 4: And so someone who was using Seawou and Hideki is
• 38:16
  Speaker 4: probably more likely to use got her up than you know,
• 38:19
  Speaker 4: Patrick can't lay somebody who's using you know, those guys
• 38:24
  Speaker 4: are also more likely to use Jake Knapp as one
• 38:27
  Speaker 4: of the value guys. Basically like just saying throughout my lineup,
• 38:30
  Speaker 4: I'm just gonna ride the hot hands Sahi Thigala Akhavatia
• 38:33
  Speaker 4: now after last week, So I think there's there's kind
• 38:36
  Speaker 4: of like a correlation there of where people go based
• 38:39
  Speaker 4: on on who they like at the top. But I
• 38:42
  Speaker 4: also think like another another kind of aspect of the
• 38:46
  Speaker 4: of the Scottie conversation that I should have brought up
• 38:48
  Speaker 4: is last week, got her Up was in twenty six
• 38:52
  Speaker 4: percent of non Scottie lineups. He was in seven percent
• 38:55
  Speaker 4: of Scottie lineups, and he was only eighty three hundred dollars.
• 38:58
  Speaker 4: But that too, is like an example of just the
• 39:01
  Speaker 4: difficulty of fitting Scotty, because when you use Scotty, it's
• 39:05
  Speaker 4: not just that it's hard to fit somebody in the
• 39:07
  Speaker 4: eight K range, it's that you only have one chance.
• 39:10
  Speaker 4: So right, like, someone last week might have liked three
• 39:14
  Speaker 4: guys in the eight K range, and if they used Scotty,
• 39:18
  Speaker 4: maybe they picked wrong of which eight K guy they
• 39:20
  Speaker 4: wanted to force in. If they didn't have Scotty, they
• 39:24
  Speaker 4: used all the eight K guys that they liked, and
• 39:26
  Speaker 4: got Up happened to be one of them, so it
• 39:28
  Speaker 4: was really easy to land on him. This week. I
• 39:31
  Speaker 4: don't see the same separation in that eight K range
• 39:33
  Speaker 4: of the seven K range. Like if if you flipped
• 39:38
  Speaker 4: like thorpe Jornsen's price with Ricky Fowler's price so eighty
• 39:42
  Speaker 4: six hundred to seventy six hundred, I don't think we'd
• 39:44
  Speaker 4: be staring at this like Wow, Ricky's like way too
• 39:47
  Speaker 4: overpriced and thorp Bjornson super super underpriced. I think he'd
• 39:51
  Speaker 4: still get you know, plenty of ownership down there. But
• 39:54
  Speaker 4: a lot of these guys in the seven K and
• 39:56
  Speaker 4: eight K range seem much more interchangeable than they were
• 39:59
  Speaker 4: last where last week, if you made God up seventy
• 40:01
  Speaker 4: three hundred dollars, he would have been sixty percent owned
• 40:04
  Speaker 4: single entries. So I do think in that way this
• 40:08
  Speaker 4: field is a lot more conducive to Scotti lineups. But
• 40:12
  Speaker 4: when I look at you know, okay, am I like
• 40:14
  Speaker 4: the to use Scotti, The answer for me is still no.
• 40:17
  Speaker 4: But this time instead of it being because I like
• 40:19
  Speaker 4: the seven K and EK range too much and I
• 40:21
  Speaker 4: want to load up on that range instead of the
• 40:23
  Speaker 4: low sevens and upper sixes, for me, it's more about
• 40:26
  Speaker 4: this week. I think I'm gonna end up wanting Henley
• 40:29
  Speaker 4: Rose Hideki Victor Fleetwood Rory. Like the idea of being
• 40:35
  Speaker 4: able to use two of those guys under owned with
• 40:39
  Speaker 4: a really really good GPP scorer over at FTN, that
• 40:41
  Speaker 4: to me is just more enticing than using Scotti.
• 40:44
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 40:44
  Speaker 2: The other thing too about the Scotti lineups is again different.
• 40:47
  Speaker 2: You know, single entry, you got to get everything right
• 40:49
  Speaker 2: and you're gonna need.
• 40:50
  Speaker 3: It all, so that's part of it.
• 40:51
  Speaker 2: But I think a lot of the Scotti lineups end
• 40:52
  Speaker 2: up very similar, even with the abundance of options down there,
• 40:56
  Speaker 2: Like when you have Ryan Girard at seventy five hundred
• 40:59
  Speaker 2: dollars at seventy three, you have Min Wu at seventy two,
• 41:04
  Speaker 2: Matt McCarty a crowd favorite out there at sixty nine hundred,
• 41:08
  Speaker 2: like these all the Rico hoo, he's sixty seven, Rogers
• 41:11
  Speaker 2: sixty six.
• 41:12
  Speaker 3: We know what these other projection sites do.
• 41:13
  Speaker 2: We've got, you know, two of our own, and you
• 41:16
  Speaker 2: know that's part of it as well, knowing that, But
• 41:17
  Speaker 2: like where people go with the other big sites that
• 41:20
  Speaker 2: they use, I think that blends it some as well.
• 41:23
  Speaker 2: And you're the one thing about the Scotty lineup that's
• 41:26
  Speaker 2: interesting is it kind of puts you all in on
• 41:28
  Speaker 2: like in that range, it's who's the other guy that's there?
• 41:32
  Speaker 2: I think ox Sheha is down there, like whoever they
• 41:33
  Speaker 2: decide to go on different guys down there, but Cam
• 41:36
  Speaker 2: Young at eighty one hundred and Jake Napp at seventy
• 41:40
  Speaker 2: nine hundred, even Ben Griffin at eighty four hundred, Like
• 41:43
  Speaker 2: some of these guys are popping off the page for
• 41:45
  Speaker 2: that balance build.
• 41:46
  Speaker 3: And then I got a thing too, got Her Up.
• 41:49
  Speaker 3: I mean, he could be a lot more money, and
• 41:50
  Speaker 3: I think people would still be considering him at nine K.
• 41:53
  Speaker 2: I don't but Scotty got Her Up doesn't really work,
• 41:55
  Speaker 2: so it's like, you know, it's it's tough, so I
• 41:58
  Speaker 2: don't know, it's really tricky to pin down.
• 42:00
  Speaker 3: I think it's like we did a couple of weeks ago.
• 42:02
  Speaker 3: It's there's the Scotty chalk build and then there's like
• 42:06
  Speaker 3: the non Scotty chalk build.
• 42:08
  Speaker 2: I'd be more curious. I guess the Scotty chalk build
• 42:10
  Speaker 2: seems easier to put together the non Scotty.
• 42:13
  Speaker 3: Where do you think they start? Is it see Wu?
• 42:16
  Speaker 3: Is it Henley? Is it got her Up? I could
• 42:18
  Speaker 3: even see people starting with got Her Up and just
• 42:20
  Speaker 3: going balanced.
• 42:21
  Speaker 4: I do think it's Sea Wu. I'm very curious to
• 42:24
  Speaker 4: see what the field does with got Her Up because historically,
• 42:26
  Speaker 4: like one of the one of the big I honestly
• 42:30
  Speaker 4: like I think inefficiencies in the way the industry uses
• 42:35
  Speaker 4: players is we are very very hesitant to go back
• 42:39
  Speaker 4: to the guy who won in the previous week. Like
• 42:42
  Speaker 4: over and over and over again, we see a post
• 42:44
  Speaker 4: win ownership discount that I personally like to take advantage of.
• 42:50
  Speaker 4: I'm curious if got Her Up has won so much
• 42:53
  Speaker 4: recently that that is kind of out the window and
• 42:55
  Speaker 4: that people now realize, oh, this guy can just keep winning,
• 42:58
  Speaker 4: and so they won't give us that ownership discount this week. Currently,
• 43:02
  Speaker 4: in our ownership projections over FTN, I am not including
• 43:06
  Speaker 4: that post win ownership discount. We've got him just right
• 43:11
  Speaker 4: behind basically like Seawoo and Fitzpatrick is the most popular
• 43:14
  Speaker 4: guys in that eighty five to eleven to five range,
• 43:18
  Speaker 4: with Scott around thirty percent. So yeah, I think one
• 43:22
  Speaker 4: of the really common builds we'll see is like Sea
• 43:24
  Speaker 4: Wou Kim one of Henley's Shoffley got her Up, and
• 43:29
  Speaker 4: then Fitzpatrick, Cam Young Nap kind of just going down
• 43:33
  Speaker 4: the board that way, and you know, maybe one of
• 43:35
  Speaker 4: those guys will have to be dropped because you can't
• 43:38
  Speaker 4: fit it otherwise. But that, to me, is going to
• 43:40
  Speaker 4: be like a collection of guys that are used together
• 43:42
  Speaker 4: quite a bit, because it's guys who are playing really
• 43:44
  Speaker 4: well right now, guys who are gonna project well all
• 43:47
  Speaker 4: around the industry, and guys who seem like they're probably
• 43:51
  Speaker 4: a little bit under price relative to the guys who
• 43:54
  Speaker 4: are next to them.
• 43:55
  Speaker 3: Yeah, interesting question here.
• 43:57
  Speaker 2: I want to see something your thought on this, and
• 43:59
  Speaker 2: then I'll add if it's different. But Andrews said, so,
• 44:01
  Speaker 2: who would be the most popular second man in for
• 44:04
  Speaker 2: Scotti lineups?
• 44:05
  Speaker 4: Go ahead, So if you use Scotty, you're left with
• 44:09
  Speaker 4: seventy two hundred dollars per the remaining five spots in
• 44:12
  Speaker 4: your lineup, which for most people that's gonna make them
• 44:16
  Speaker 4: scroll down to seventy two hundred dollars. They're not, you know,
• 44:18
  Speaker 4: then saying okay, but I really want to fit this
• 44:21
  Speaker 4: guy at at eighty seven hundred, like it would like
• 44:23
  Speaker 4: it would be for fits for example, they're going down
• 44:25
  Speaker 4: to that seventy two hundred dollars range and they're figuring
• 44:27
  Speaker 4: out who they like most in that range. I think
• 44:29
  Speaker 4: the guys who are going to be most popular around
• 44:31
  Speaker 4: that range are Coody, Gerard, Minwu Lee and Kirk Kadiama.
• 44:37
  Speaker 4: Maybe we get some Keith Mitchell, Steam, Connors, Stevens or
• 44:41
  Speaker 4: McCarty could steam, so any of those names. But I
• 44:44
  Speaker 4: think more than like any of those names specifically, it's
• 44:48
  Speaker 4: a lot of Scotty lineups are going to be a
• 44:49
  Speaker 4: collection of those names. And the more, and you know,
• 44:52
  Speaker 4: in some of those guys I mentioned are above seventy two,
• 44:54
  Speaker 4: So the more guys that are used above seventy two,
• 44:57
  Speaker 4: the more they're then going to have to go dip
• 44:58
  Speaker 4: into the six k range. So like Tom Hoge could
• 45:01
  Speaker 4: get Steam, McGreevy could get steam, Patrick Rodgers and Michael
• 45:05
  Speaker 4: Kim again, you know, the whole industry likes those guys.
• 45:08
  Speaker 4: So so yeah, pretty pretty spread out because as we mentioned,
• 45:14
  Speaker 4: like there actually are high quality names down there, and
• 45:17
  Speaker 4: there are a bunch of them. There are a lot
• 45:19
  Speaker 4: more options this week if guys you can go to,
• 45:21
  Speaker 4: so it is going to be easier to fit Scotty.
• 45:24
  Speaker 4: But do we see one of those guys really separate
• 45:28
  Speaker 4: at like thirty percent and nobody else gets to twenty,
• 45:30
  Speaker 4: I kind of don't think so. I kind of think
• 45:32
  Speaker 4: that they're going to steam together and fifteen to twenty
• 45:35
  Speaker 4: might be the ceiling for some of them and maybe
• 45:38
  Speaker 4: we get one or two at like twenty five.
• 45:40
  Speaker 3: Yeah, that's what I want to see too.
• 45:41
  Speaker 2: Another thing I want to bring up just a key point,
• 45:43
  Speaker 2: because it's again everybody reads stuff differently, but I think
• 45:47
  Speaker 2: you know, when Andrew's saying who's the second man, and
• 45:49
  Speaker 2: some people think right away, I'm just gonna speak for
• 45:51
  Speaker 2: both sides. I know somebody says, you know, oh, who's
• 45:54
  Speaker 2: the second priced guy that goes in?
• 45:56
  Speaker 3: I think of it.
• 45:57
  Speaker 2: Maybe you do as well, But who's the second click
• 46:00
  Speaker 2: immediately go to? Because that's what you know, what's the
• 46:02
  Speaker 2: automatic click? And you named a few of them, but
• 46:04
  Speaker 2: I think, like you know, the chat said it, I
• 46:05
  Speaker 2: think there's Straka, Girard, Kidiyama, min Wu, like these are
• 46:09
  Speaker 2: the guys that are the values in projections that are
• 46:12
  Speaker 2: gonna pop off the page they you look. Let's say
• 46:16
  Speaker 2: it's Girard at seventy five hundred, there's gonna be lineups
• 46:19
  Speaker 2: that he's not the second priced guy in, but he
• 46:22
  Speaker 2: could be the more popular like he's the second click
• 46:24
  Speaker 2: for people because to Alex's point, when people get down there,
• 46:27
  Speaker 2: they go to that range.
• 46:29
  Speaker 3: Let's say they put.
• 46:29
  Speaker 2: Him in a couple other you know, mid range or
• 46:31
  Speaker 2: low end seven K guys in then they start to
• 46:34
  Speaker 2: see can I get to Straka and who oh wait
• 46:38
  Speaker 2: a minute, if I actually like the guy Hogy, who's
• 46:40
  Speaker 2: two hundred bucks cheaper, well now I can move up
• 46:42
  Speaker 2: from Straka to Nap. And that's where these two v
• 46:45
  Speaker 2: two questions come from, right like, oh, I'm on Straca
• 46:47
  Speaker 2: and who is it? I'm I'm on Straka and HOI
• 46:51
  Speaker 2: or do I like Hogi and Nap? Well again, that's
• 46:55
  Speaker 2: you gotta look at the whole lineup think about it
• 46:57
  Speaker 2: from that perspective. But I think that's where those questions
• 46:59
  Speaker 2: stem from when people are seeing it, because they start
• 47:02
  Speaker 2: to realize what can fit. So the second click can
• 47:04
  Speaker 2: oftentimes be the second person they go to. And so
• 47:08
  Speaker 2: we'll see how it actually shakes out.
• 47:10
  Speaker 3: But I think right now it looks like Nap Gerard Straka,
• 47:14
  Speaker 3: and then down low it looks like Kiddyama min Wu,
• 47:16
  Speaker 3: and then in the six case you're seeing like McCarty, Howey, McGreevy,
• 47:21
  Speaker 3: Patrick Rogers, just whoever the projection sites are pushing through,
• 47:25
  Speaker 3: and then you can look at how you can get
• 47:26
  Speaker 3: it different from there. In single entry, I would still
• 47:28
  Speaker 3: be inclined. It's not my lane this week.
• 47:29
  Speaker 2: But I'm saying if I was going Scottie, I would
• 47:31
  Speaker 2: be embracing the variants down low. There's not that much
• 47:34
  Speaker 2: there's not gonna be that much of a difference between
• 47:37
  Speaker 2: ten of those different names down there.
• 47:38
  Speaker 3: And remember, they can't all get played.
• 47:40
  Speaker 2: Oh I heard someone mention this. I heard people mention
• 47:42
  Speaker 2: a lot of shit. That's why we don't do the
• 47:44
  Speaker 2: full fix and plays. It's we're talking.
• 47:45
  Speaker 3: About how to play, not who. People talk about a
• 47:48
  Speaker 3: lot of stuff.
• 47:49
  Speaker 2: Some people that talk about it don't even actually play,
• 47:51
  Speaker 2: and then some people that do talk about it and
• 47:53
  Speaker 2: play don't necessarily land on, you know, just a lock
• 47:56
  Speaker 2: piece down there, like I'm putting this person all.
• 47:58
  Speaker 3: It's not gonna be like that. It's gonna be spread out.
• 48:00
  Speaker 2: So there's a ton of different names down there where
• 48:02
  Speaker 2: you could just embrace the variants and find guys that
• 48:04
  Speaker 2: people can't get to in these spots.
• 48:06
  Speaker 4: So anything one of the names that you just mentioned,
• 48:10
  Speaker 4: Tom HOGI I think is a really kind of great
• 48:13
  Speaker 4: conversation piece because he goes back to the conversation about
• 48:17
  Speaker 4: why we why you and I don't care about course history.
• 48:21
  Speaker 4: Tom Hogy historically has been an outstanding iron player, very
• 48:27
  Speaker 4: high quality putter, at least a streaky putter. So you
• 48:30
  Speaker 4: know somebody who over the years, you get him when
• 48:32
  Speaker 4: the when the putter's working over, you know, a six
• 48:35
  Speaker 4: week period, like he's just going to continue to make
• 48:37
  Speaker 4: putts at a high clip that historically has been a
• 48:40
  Speaker 4: very good fit for Pebble Beach. As we talked about. Now,
• 48:44
  Speaker 4: if you look at his like fifty round rolling average
• 48:47
  Speaker 4: for approach play on data Golf, it's in the toilet,
• 48:51
  Speaker 4: like he stinks with the irons. Now, our projection for
• 48:54
  Speaker 4: him is he's going to lose over a quarter of
• 48:55
  Speaker 4: a stroke per round with his irons. Right now, he's
• 48:58
  Speaker 4: no longer a good fit. So if you're using Tom
• 49:00
  Speaker 4: Hogy this week because he has good course history here,
• 49:03
  Speaker 4: I think you're kind of missing the point of why
• 49:05
  Speaker 4: he has played well here in the past, because in
• 49:07
  Speaker 4: the past his game really fit this course. Now that
• 49:10
  Speaker 4: doesn't mean he can't play well this week, because it's
• 49:12
  Speaker 4: still probably true that when he spikes. When he plays well,
• 49:15
  Speaker 4: he's going to play well in the right categories. Like
• 49:18
  Speaker 4: you know, when he finished eighth at the Amex, we
• 49:20
  Speaker 4: did see him, you know, flag a lot of shots.
• 49:23
  Speaker 4: His irons were good. He was making a bunch of putts.
• 49:25
  Speaker 4: Spotter has been working all year so far, but he
• 49:28
  Speaker 4: lost almost ero point seven per round with the irons
• 49:30
  Speaker 4: at toy and then he lost one point eight per
• 49:33
  Speaker 4: round last week at the wm in to miss the
• 49:36
  Speaker 4: Cup with just his iron. So the part of his
• 49:39
  Speaker 4: game that has been the reason why he has fit
• 49:42
  Speaker 4: this course so well in the past right now is
• 49:44
  Speaker 4: a weakness. And so when I look at Tom Hogy, like,
• 49:47
  Speaker 4: I'm not expecting good things just because he has good
• 49:49
  Speaker 4: history here. So if he's going to be five to
• 49:51
  Speaker 4: ten percent on because he has good course history, like
• 49:54
  Speaker 4: to me, that's five to ten percent of the field
• 49:56
  Speaker 4: making a mistake that I want to take advantage of.
• 49:58
  Speaker 3: Right and we'll see that in other place.
• 49:59
  Speaker 2: Is too not to say, Like I'll use another example,
• 50:02
  Speaker 2: but Jason Day is playing fine right now from what
• 50:04
  Speaker 2: we've seen recently, and he obviously has an incredible history here.
• 50:07
  Speaker 3: But I think people also underestimate what the projections do.
• 50:11
  Speaker 2: For people, because at the end of the day, he's
• 50:13
  Speaker 2: just he doesn't project like the guys that have been
• 50:15
  Speaker 2: nine k and above around like a Ben Griffin who's
• 50:18
  Speaker 2: eighty four hundred will easily eat. They could be end
• 50:20
  Speaker 2: up being even, They could even be a little bit
• 50:22
  Speaker 2: more owned. But I'm just noting it is. It could
• 50:24
  Speaker 2: be a lot more equal than you think. Or some
• 50:26
  Speaker 2: early sites will project because a lot of people early
• 50:29
  Speaker 2: on go off the course history stuff. But the lineups
• 50:31
  Speaker 2: are actually majority built with optimizers and things that are
• 50:35
  Speaker 2: taking the projections into effect. And you can exploit that
• 50:38
  Speaker 2: if you think that's a weakness somewhere and you can
• 50:40
  Speaker 2: find that.
• 50:40
  Speaker 3: In your favor, then use it.
• 50:42
  Speaker 2: But it's the opposite side of it to Alex's point
• 50:44
  Speaker 2: with HOGI, where the projections might not even be on him.
• 50:47
  Speaker 3: The recent form is not really great.
• 50:49
  Speaker 2: Was he was good when he was good, and the
• 50:51
  Speaker 2: course history is based off of that, but people are
• 50:54
  Speaker 2: playing him at you know, five to ten percent rate. Well,
• 50:56
  Speaker 2: that's where you can kind of exploit it the other
• 50:57
  Speaker 2: way if you want it to as well.
• 50:59
  Speaker 4: And also Jason Day, like, remember how weak this field
• 51:03
  Speaker 4: was before it became a signature event, he should have
• 51:05
  Speaker 4: been contending year after year when he was by far
• 51:09
  Speaker 4: the best player in the field most of those years,
• 51:11
  Speaker 4: so we shouldn't be surprised that he was in contention
• 51:13
  Speaker 4: all the time. Now his numbers are like ridiculously consistent here,
• 51:17
  Speaker 4: so it's not like he hasn't played even better than
• 51:20
  Speaker 4: we would expect, but we should have expected him to
• 51:25
  Speaker 4: contend quite a bit here. So the fact that he's
• 51:27
  Speaker 4: played well and remember what is the one skill set
• 51:31
  Speaker 4: that has been more predictive here than usual, hutting. Jason
• 51:35
  Speaker 4: Day has been probably the best putter of the last
• 51:38
  Speaker 4: fifteen years in the world. So yeah, it's not surprising
• 51:42
  Speaker 4: to see that he has done well. And it's a
• 51:44
  Speaker 4: reflection of course fit and talent more than like just
• 51:47
  Speaker 4: some you know, hidden black box fit of why he
• 51:52
  Speaker 4: plays well here. That is all you really get when
• 51:54
  Speaker 4: you look at course history. No, we understand why he's
• 51:57
  Speaker 4: played well here based on how good of a player
• 51:59
  Speaker 4: he is and the way that he's fit the golf course.
• 52:01
  Speaker 3: Yeah, and I guess like looking at it too. Obviously
• 52:03
  Speaker 3: the last couple of years still six.
• 52:05
  Speaker 2: On the thirteenth, But back in the day, it was
• 52:07
  Speaker 2: like it was all top sevens or better, top fives
• 52:08
  Speaker 2: or better, top four, top threes, you know, seconds things
• 52:11
  Speaker 2: like that, so you know it's not like he fell
• 52:13
  Speaker 2: off a cliff, but obviously a pun and tend. I
• 52:15
  Speaker 2: guess if you saw that Jordan Speed new video that
• 52:17
  Speaker 2: came out of him, like that was the most insane thing,
• 52:19
  Speaker 2: by the way, from any angle, but you see that
• 52:21
  Speaker 2: new angle like man that looked like one slip of
• 52:24
  Speaker 2: the foot and he's gone. Someone said it, I think
• 52:26
  Speaker 2: it was in the comments, was like Greller, like you
• 52:28
  Speaker 2: pick up that ball and you're like, I don't care,
• 52:30
  Speaker 2: Like this is my job and it's to protect you.
• 52:32
  Speaker 2: You'll thank me later, because now Spee says he even
• 52:34
  Speaker 2: regrets hitting that shot. But that was very wild when
• 52:37
  Speaker 2: you think back to that. Or would you be attempting that, Alex,
• 52:40
  Speaker 2: I don't think I would be anywhere near that.
• 52:41
  Speaker 4: I have no idea, just because like I don't know
• 52:44
  Speaker 4: what it felt like for Spieth in the moment. If
• 52:47
  Speaker 4: I felt fine with my footing, I'm probably the knucklehead
• 52:50
  Speaker 4: who would try.
• 52:51
  Speaker 3: Something like that. Geez man, that's dangerous stuff. I don't know.
• 52:53
  Speaker 2: I'm not into that, but I will say good point
• 52:55
  Speaker 2: there on the Jason Day stuff and even like again
• 52:57
  Speaker 2: that's where the course history stuff can.
• 52:59
  Speaker 3: Still be used, which just how do you use it
• 53:01
  Speaker 3: and think about it?
• 53:01
  Speaker 2: And you did it with HOGI you did it again
• 53:03
  Speaker 2: with Day, just bringing up those perspectives, so I certainly
• 53:05
  Speaker 2: appreciate that.
• 53:06
  Speaker 3: I think others will as well. Now let's talk about
• 53:08
  Speaker 3: leveraging this chalk build that we sort of have got
• 53:11
  Speaker 3: down to here. I know we've got two versions of it,
• 53:14
  Speaker 3: but is there anything you see it could be part
• 53:15
  Speaker 3: of your lane later?
• 53:16
  Speaker 2: I mean, I think I don't want to give it
• 53:18
  Speaker 2: away too soon, but I think like there's certainly something
• 53:20
  Speaker 2: here and I'll get to it later. But yeah, there's
• 53:23
  Speaker 2: a way that can leverage everything, But just go ahead.
• 53:25
  Speaker 2: Is there you know, for leveraging the chalk build for
• 53:29
  Speaker 2: single entry focus like we always talk about GVP perspective
• 53:31
  Speaker 2: the two hundred dollars by the way, very nice this
• 53:33
  Speaker 2: week fifty k up top, so I'm very excited about
• 53:36
  Speaker 2: that one.
• 53:36
  Speaker 3: But what sort of thoughts do you have about leveraging
• 53:39
  Speaker 3: these chalk builds that we just talked about.
• 53:41
  Speaker 4: I think one of the things that we notice when
• 53:43
  Speaker 4: we're looking at ownership projections so far is that most
• 53:48
  Speaker 4: of the chalky guys are chalk because of how well
• 53:51
  Speaker 4: they have played so far this season, that people have
• 53:54
  Speaker 4: already seen them playing quality golf and that makes them
• 53:57
  Speaker 4: more confident that they're gonna play well this week. So
• 53:59
  Speaker 4: I think one of the clear ways that you can
• 54:01
  Speaker 4: leverage it instead of just talking about like specific players
• 54:04
  Speaker 4: or specific price ranges, just switch to guys that you
• 54:08
  Speaker 4: know historically are really good players and are underpriced for
• 54:13
  Speaker 4: what they have done over the last two years or
• 54:15
  Speaker 4: something like that. So someone like JJ Spawn at seventy
• 54:19
  Speaker 4: eight hundred dollars, there's some injury concern, but if he's
• 54:23
  Speaker 4: not injured and you're just looking at like what the
• 54:26
  Speaker 4: body of work has been over the last eight months,
• 54:29
  Speaker 4: twelve months, twenty four months, nobody is as underpriced as
• 54:33
  Speaker 4: he is, so you're also getting an ownership discount there.
• 54:37
  Speaker 4: You can make the same case for somebody like Bobby
• 54:40
  Speaker 4: Mack or let's see, like even someone like Patrick Cantley
• 54:45
  Speaker 4: or Justin Rose who actually has a win this week
• 54:48
  Speaker 4: but win this year, but he seems like he's going
• 54:51
  Speaker 4: to be under owned, and then you know, down lower
• 54:53
  Speaker 4: you can get to somebody like a Wyndham Clark or
• 54:56
  Speaker 4: an Alex Norrin or Corey Conners. So looking in instead
• 55:00
  Speaker 4: at long term body of work and knowing that this
• 55:04
  Speaker 4: is a really, really good player. I think that's a
• 55:07
  Speaker 4: really solid way to leverage the field this week because
• 55:10
  Speaker 4: the field is very clearly like in on guys who
• 55:12
  Speaker 4: have shown it this year and are consistently playing good
• 55:15
  Speaker 4: golf right now. That doesn't necessarily mean they're more likely
• 55:18
  Speaker 4: to play well this week.
• 55:19
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think that's key. And then I think just
• 55:21
  Speaker 3: looking at the ranges right when you're talking about it,
• 55:24
  Speaker 3: like obviously the Scotty lineups we mentioned it.
• 55:25
  Speaker 2: Can you get strack in there and nap in there
• 55:28
  Speaker 2: like wherever? Yeah, you can get one of them, right,
• 55:30
  Speaker 2: or maybe two if you stretch it thin, But you
• 55:33
  Speaker 2: can't really get three guys from there right. The balanced
• 55:36
  Speaker 2: version could, So I would be thinking about that if
• 55:38
  Speaker 2: you're flipping it out, but like flipping it up. But
• 55:40
  Speaker 2: I think what you said earlier too is a prime example.
• 55:42
  Speaker 2: If you like three value plays and they all work
• 55:45
  Speaker 2: with Scotty, think about what everybody else is doing. If
• 55:47
  Speaker 2: if they like the similar three value plays, they're probably
• 55:50
  Speaker 2: looking next up Scotty. What if you put that in
• 55:52
  Speaker 2: with the three value plays you like where you end
• 55:54
  Speaker 2: up on two nine K guys that.
• 55:56
  Speaker 3: Others aren't on.
• 55:58
  Speaker 2: And again these are I'm not going to really have
• 55:59
  Speaker 2: a specific pick. I'm gonna speak to something when I
• 56:02
  Speaker 2: get to my lane later, but just to note it,
• 56:04
  Speaker 2: like quick example from it, the Headekis, the Justin Roses,
• 56:09
  Speaker 2: the gotter Ups, the guys like that. They're they're all
• 56:11
  Speaker 2: playing really good golf. People just don't want to stick
• 56:14
  Speaker 2: with them all. They can't keep doing that, and you
• 56:16
  Speaker 2: can again, you could start stacking those up and leveraging
• 56:19
  Speaker 2: up and finding separation even further because some aren't even
• 56:21
  Speaker 2: putting one separator.
• 56:23
  Speaker 3: Into their lineup.
• 56:24
  Speaker 2: That way, they're going to see Wu or Henley or
• 56:27
  Speaker 2: you know whoever it is up top that they're comfortable
• 56:29
  Speaker 2: with Fitzpatrick or Jason Day or whatever in the mid
• 56:31
  Speaker 2: range like whatever that looks like. You can use that
• 56:34
  Speaker 2: to your advantage because for everybody that's going to those guys,
• 56:37
  Speaker 2: they're not going to those other guys. And a lot
• 56:39
  Speaker 2: of them are saying it's because they can't do it again.
• 56:41
  Speaker 2: They've been doing it and they can.
• 56:43
  Speaker 3: Do it again. Gonnor can't win again.
• 56:44
  Speaker 2: Oh wait, he just won again, and so it's like
• 56:46
  Speaker 2: he can do it plenty. I remember he won the
• 56:48
  Speaker 2: Scottish Open. He can't show up at the Open, no,
• 56:51
  Speaker 2: no way, wait a minute, top five, top three, whatever
• 56:53
  Speaker 2: it was the following week. It's like he can definitely
• 56:55
  Speaker 2: continue playing good golf. So it does feel like in
• 56:58
  Speaker 2: this field there is some of that where people are
• 57:00
  Speaker 2: leaving other guys out just based on it's like the
• 57:03
  Speaker 2: thought process or the feeling of they can't do it again.
• 57:05
  Speaker 2: And then I also think too, like the certain guys
• 57:08
  Speaker 2: that we've liked all season, and again I'm not I
• 57:11
  Speaker 2: don't really care recent form or anything about their course history,
• 57:14
  Speaker 2: like we said, but like if you're looking at Oberg
• 57:18
  Speaker 2: Robert McIntyre, if you go down to who's the other guy?
• 57:22
  Speaker 2: I was thinking of Nick Taylor, Taylor Pendrith, sorry, right
• 57:26
  Speaker 2: right above him, and then two Canadians, two tailors, but
• 57:28
  Speaker 2: just noting that, and then even like Penge down below.
• 57:32
  Speaker 2: We wanted these guys at different times this season already
• 57:35
  Speaker 2: and now you just don't want them again. The field
• 57:37
  Speaker 2: did get stronger, but it's almost like a thought I
• 57:38
  Speaker 2: have when you have to fill out six players in
• 57:41
  Speaker 2: a lineup and We talk about this all the time,
• 57:42
  Speaker 2: about the lineup and not just the play of your
• 57:45
  Speaker 2: one and done point you made this season.
• 57:46
  Speaker 3: We're gonna get to the one and done segment.
• 57:48
  Speaker 2: Shortly, but just noting it of it's like you kind
• 57:51
  Speaker 2: of want them when they can make.
• 57:53
  Speaker 3: The biggest difference for you.
• 57:55
  Speaker 2: Okay, four guaranteed rounds very low ownership in some cases
• 57:59
  Speaker 2: can separate and.
• 58:00
  Speaker 3: Kill guys around them completely.
• 58:02
  Speaker 2: And that's where somebody's sitting there with a five or six,
• 58:04
  Speaker 2: not in the sense that you think they have the
• 58:06
  Speaker 2: same six of six as you. Everybody made the cut,
• 58:08
  Speaker 2: but five of their guys did good and their chalky
• 58:11
  Speaker 2: six guy didn't. And you've got the separator there because
• 58:14
  Speaker 2: you were willing to go back to the well on
• 58:15
  Speaker 2: the guy that you saw all seasons. So a little
• 58:17
  Speaker 2: bit of a sneak preview before I'm going with it,
• 58:19
  Speaker 2: but I just think that's so important, and that's how
• 58:21
  Speaker 2: I like to embrace the variants in a no cut
• 58:24
  Speaker 2: more than just saying I'm gonna pick some randoms off
• 58:26
  Speaker 2: the wall. And you can also use this just a note,
• 58:29
  Speaker 2: try to make this evergreen. You can use this in
• 58:31
  Speaker 2: showdown as well. You see how many times. I know
• 58:34
  Speaker 2: everybody out there can vouch for this. You've been on
• 58:37
  Speaker 2: somebody in round two or round three Showdown, you went
• 58:41
  Speaker 2: off of them in round three and round four and
• 58:43
  Speaker 2: watch them dominate you and win the tournament for somebody,
• 58:46
  Speaker 2: and like, of course the day after I went away
• 58:48
  Speaker 2: from them. I'm not saying you got to stick with
• 58:50
  Speaker 2: them every day. I'm just saying the reason that happens
• 58:52
  Speaker 2: is because everything you thought you liked about them, or
• 58:54
  Speaker 2: everything they were doing well.
• 58:56
  Speaker 3: Could click in. You could just be a day late,
• 58:58
  Speaker 3: right day late, and a lot of dollars short.
• 59:00
  Speaker 2: Is certainly a statement when it comes to DFS, with
• 59:02
  Speaker 2: with Showdown, with Classic, with whatever it is, but with
• 59:04
  Speaker 2: no cuts. I think that's a big factor as well.
• 59:06
  Speaker 2: A lot of the guys that you already like Sam Stevens.
• 59:08
  Speaker 2: He's a it's seven K flat. He fits all the
• 59:10
  Speaker 2: Scotti lineups. Everyone's liked him all season.
• 59:13
  Speaker 3: Currently, again, we'll see what the other projection sites do,
• 59:16
  Speaker 3: but I don't see him very high right now from
• 59:18
  Speaker 3: an ownership respective, just because it's not really the range
• 59:21
  Speaker 3: people are landing in. They want that seventy two to
• 59:23
  Speaker 3: seventy nine range to the low sevens, the upper sixes,
• 59:26
  Speaker 3: maybe McCarty get some. But you'll see some really good
• 59:29
  Speaker 3: lineups at the end of the week. I'll end the
• 59:31
  Speaker 3: rants soon, but just you'll see some really good linpess.
• 59:33
  Speaker 3: It'll have someone like Stevens and McCarty and people like Oh,
• 59:35
  Speaker 3: those chalk donkeys always come.
• 59:37
  Speaker 2: Through, but this week they're five percent. They might have
• 59:39
  Speaker 2: been chalk donkey's previous weeks. They're not necessarily that.
• 59:43
  Speaker 3: This week. You're comfortable with the name. You've seen the
• 59:46
  Speaker 3: name because they've been in your thoughts, they've been in
• 59:48
  Speaker 3: your lineups, right, you've been using them. They're not even chalk.
• 59:51
  Speaker 3: When you're calling them chalk, you're just.
• 59:52
  Speaker 2: Mad because you weren't on them this week, but you
• 59:55
  Speaker 2: were other weeks. So using guys like that can really
• 59:57
  Speaker 2: build some unique lineups for you that aren't crazier stupid.
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 2: No crazy diamonds in the rough. You were literally just
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 2: on them or others were, but they're coming through when
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 2: now people have moved off of them. So not rocket science,
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 2: but I think it's very critical in events like this,
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 2: especially with no cut automatic four rounds.
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 4: Yep, A great there. I think it might be time
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 4: for one and done in betting.
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 3: I agree, Yeah, I'm good with that rant over.
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 2: What what is the thoughts on the one and done?
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 2: I'll just you know, go through it quickly here just
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 2: to preview it one last time.
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 3: I want to see too what it got to Let
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 3: me do this Alex raight quick if you guys didn't see.
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 2: So we got up from four twenty to four to
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 2: forty three. So we're still under five hundred entries right now.
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 2: But if you guys haven't checked it out yet, go
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 2: to splash sports dot com. It's one hundred bucks for
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 2: the entire season to get in, so it's four dollars
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 2: or just under per event. There's twenty seven events. The
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 2: prizes are huge twenty thousand, eleven thousand, seven to almost
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 2: seven thousand and forty five to three twenty three, six
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 2: to tenth like a lot of big prizes that you
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 2: can play for there, So check that out.
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 3: What are your thoughts for this week?
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 2: I know, like all season long, people have just been
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 2: talking it up about like the breakdown and you know
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 2: how you can sort of see through when.
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 3: You should use guys. But this is our first signature events,
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 3: so I'm very curious to get your take on this one.
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 4: Yeah, we are there. We have finally made it to
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 4: the point where we are trying to win this week
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 4: instead of what we've been doing, which is more like
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 4: just a focus on making sure we're saving guys four
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 4: weeks like this. So my thought is, I want to
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 4: start a little bit contrarian. And this this still isn't
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 4: like the you know, the biggest person. We're going to
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 4: get a couple of majors, and we're gonna get the
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 4: players that have an even bigger first place prize. So
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 4: I think what I want to do here is get
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 4: a little bit contrarian, and I want to find somebody
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 4: with just a massive amount of iniquity, even if they're
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 4: a little bit less likely to play super well. So
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 4: the number one guy that I have in mind is
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 4: Justin Rose. Where if you told me that six months
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 4: from now, when we get into like the you know,
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 4: the middle of the summer, four five months from now,
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 4: that he isn't playing super well anymore, I'd believe you.
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 4: He's forty five years old, but right now he's playing
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 4: extremely good golf. He's beating any competition when he's on
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 4: his a game. So I kind of want to just
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 4: ride the hot wave with Rose here, and I think
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 4: that he'll be pretty low owned. Where if we get
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 4: it right now, we're in like you know, now we're
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 4: in the driver's seat where we can start just playing
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 4: the best play week after week and still put ourselves
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 4: in position for the for the top prize, whether it's
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 4: you know, against fifteen hundred ish people like in your
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 4: Splash contest or a massive amount like in the in
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 4: the Pat Mayo contest.
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that's interesting because I got a text
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 2: from my dad this morning. I enter his Pat Mayo
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 2: at popa Tambo is the name in the contest, and
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 2: he's very interested in Justin Rose this week.
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 3: So I likes what he sees.
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 2: He's kind of thinking the same, you know method we
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 2: were just talking about of like it's not just about
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 2: you know, it's not just about you know, the history.
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 2: It's it's more about like also how he's been playing
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 2: and just coming off of a win. But like also
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 2: ride the hot hand, well he's hot because it could
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 2: fall apart pretty quickly. And I mean we talk about
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 2: this all the time too, by the way, just making
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 2: fun of a ton of different NFL players. But like
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 2: early on in the season, like let's play this guy
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 2: before he breaks down and falls apart in the second
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 2: half of the season. So it's like little things like
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 2: that that can kind of be thought about here as well.
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 2: I know it's not I'm definitely not calling a forty
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 2: six year old old when I just turned forty myself.
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 3: Trust me, he's young. He's very young, many many years
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 3: to go.
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 2: Some say he could only be at like a one
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 2: third life crisis right now. You know, new technologies and
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 2: things advanced, But I will say that is something still
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 2: to be said. In a game like golf, back aches, swing, speed,
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 2: all these different factors that you're working on, capitalize on it.
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 2: Now we know what gets you through to the FedEx
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 2: Cup playoffs. You know, get all these points early on
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 2: and then you can kind of coast a little bit
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 2: if you're not feeling fully healthier or all there with your.
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 3: Game or working on things. So I like that call.
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 2: I don't really have too many other thoughts, Like I
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 2: guess what I wouldn't be doing is like what the
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 2: conversation you had around Like some people that just get
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 2: comfortable being like Jason Day, he never messes up here.
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 3: I'll just use him.
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 2: The other thing I will say, though, is I don't
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 2: think I'm using Scotty right Like, I think it's still
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 2: for me as good as Scotty is, and I get
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 2: all that, and it's definitely a time where you could
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 2: at least make money off of it.
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 3: I still kind of want Scotty.
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 2: For something with four rounds and a cut, and also
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 2: like really hard over the four days, we're like, okay,
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 2: I'm getting a top five from Scotty.
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 3: I know people say that's every week. I get it.
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 2: He just came third even again last week, but it's
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 2: like I really wanted to be like a top three
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 2: top me oh year, like a really high likelihood of
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 2: that every week feels like that for Scotty. But for me,
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 2: I see a bunch of different options in this field
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 2: early on that I could go to. So I'm out
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 2: on Jason Day and I'm out on Scotty Scheffler. That's
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 2: the two that I'm I'm certain on at least.
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I think I'm I'm also out on Rory. And interestingly,
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 4: like two years ago, I used Rory here at one percent, thought, oh,
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 4: what a brilliant decision. It looked like he was gonna win.
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 4: Early on day one, he was like six under on
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 4: Spyglass and up by three, and then he forgot how
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 4: to golf and ended up finishing like thirtieth something like that.
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 3: Here's like sixtieth or something.
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 4: Yeah, and then last year I did not go back
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 4: to him. He won at one percent again, and I
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 4: was like, oh my god, you moron, why did you
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 4: not use the exact same logic as you did last year?
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 4: But now, because he won last year, I don't think
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 4: he'll be one percent again. So now I'd rather save
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 4: Rory for a course that fits him a lot better,
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 4: something like where you know, driving matters more than usual.
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 4: So that's kind of the other point with Rose that
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 4: I kind of forgot to mention is like he's not
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 4: losing as much off the tee and with with the
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 4: with the ball striking to the other elite players this week.
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 4: And he might be the best putter of the elites
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 4: right now. So he certainly he's one of the best
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 4: putters in this field. So this course fit model, you know, this,
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 4: this golf course, it allows him to contend with the
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 4: other elites a little bit better than most will.
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 2: One interesting thing too, I'll just add this in and
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 2: all you get to the betting breakdown was also really
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 2: fits like the model of everything we want to talk about,
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 2: but the breakdown of got Her Up again, like now
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 2: is your separator now and now many people again nobody
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 2: thinks he can win again. It's now we're in a
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 2: stronger field, Like of course, why would you go to
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 2: god her Up?
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 3: He just won.
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 2: It's how a lot of people see it. There was
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 2: like two I think two of the four rounds last
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 2: week he lost pretty bad with the potter. He still
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 2: had a lot of other things going good for him.
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 2: He bombs it out there. This would be a week
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 2: for you know, two people, Like two tournaments have already
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 2: been won by got Her Up where people got the
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 2: got Her Up money out of it, and now you
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 2: can get the most got Her Up money on a
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 2: week like this. Well he's playing good, well, he fits
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 2: the course, all these different factors.
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 3: I just I would have no problem with that if you.
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 2: Want to ride the hot hand. I also think a
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 2: lot of people are already talking about, you know, early Ryder
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 2: Cup stuff and things like how good got Her Up
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 2: is and leaving got Her Up behind for Morikawa is
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 2: like much easier to say after a couple more wins
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 2: and stuff, but I get it. My point would just be,
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 2: I just think, to your point earlier, not many people
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 2: are gonna go to him because of what he's done already,
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 2: But what he's done already could almost be why you
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 2: could or should go to him.
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 4: Yeah, this isn't necessarily one and done centric, but I
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 4: think it's kind of an important point when we go
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 4: back to the discussion of, you know, not necessarily just
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 4: going in on all the chalk that's played well this year,
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 4: there are four guys who really stand out to me
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 4: got Her Up Thorp, Bjornson, Jake Knapp, Pearson Coody. What
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 4: these four players all have in common. In addition to
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 4: playing very well last week and playing well so far
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 4: this season, they are all in the upper echelon of
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 4: our strokes game driving distance and our strokes game driving
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 4: accuracy estimates. This is really important because we're coming from
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 4: a golf course in Scottsdale where both of those aspects
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 4: of golf were extremely predictive. They're a lot more predictive
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 4: than usual. So, in other words, have they played really
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 4: well because they're super super inform and they're just going
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 4: to continue to play well no matter what golf course,
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 4: no matter what golf course they're on, or did they
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 4: just play really well last week, because all four of
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 4: these guys, we're on golf courses that are perfect. We're
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 4: on a golf course that are perfectly suited for their games,
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 4: and now they're going to a golf course that isn't
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 4: as suited to their games, where that big giant strength
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 4: that they have, and like for Thorpe Jornson got her
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 4: up and Cooty especially, like those are their only two
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 4: strengths relative to this field. Napp is also an excellent putter,
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 4: so I think there's a better argument for Nap this
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 4: week than those other three. But so the three guys
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 4: like it, that's it. They drive the ball longer and
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 4: straighter than everybody else in this field or the most
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 4: of this field. There's not a single other skill set
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 4: where they are at or above average relative to the
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 4: rest of this field, or at least relative to the
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 4: rest of the best players in this field. So I
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 4: think it's gonna be a lot harder for them to
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 4: contend this week, and they're all going to get ownership
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 4: because they're playing very well. And so I think that's
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 4: like a really kind of interesting way to think about
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 4: current form and notice just that current form is a
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 4: product of their recent fit. And when suddenly they're going
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 4: to a golf course that's a much worse fit than
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 4: what it's been, that's potentially, you know, a time to
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 4: sell high. And similarly, somebody who hasn't played well in
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 4: the last few weeks because they are very short off
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 4: the tea, they're inaccurate off the tea. Now they get
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 4: to a course in Pebble where that doesn't hold him
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 4: back as much, And so maybe you get some really
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 4: nice by low opportunities on some guys that way as well.
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I like it.
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 2: Anything anything stand out from like the the betting side
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 2: of things, anything else extra to ad.
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I've got I've got two outrights. My favorite one
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 4: is Fitzpatrick, except I don't know if he's still available
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 4: at forty. So let me let me do a quick
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 4: check on our prop shop over at FTN for Fitzpatrick,
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 4: and thirty five is now the best number. I think
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 4: thirty five is still good, but obviously it's not as
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 4: good as forty, so instead let me give out JJ
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 4: Spawn and I talked about Spawn a little bit with
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 4: Pat on the show yesterday, where I don't know that
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 4: I'm gonna be taking that risk on DraftKings because there
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 4: is still a risk that he's injured, he's gonna withdraw,
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 4: or he's just gonna play poorly, because there really is
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 4: something bothering him, and so the downside risk is very
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 4: much there, and it's meaningful on DraftKings. In the outright market,
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 4: the downside doesn't matter because ninety seven percent of the
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 4: time when he's healthy, he's gonna lose anyway. All we
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 4: care about is does he have a three percent chance
• 1:10:28
  Speaker 4: to win? And he does in our model, and we're
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 4: getting him at sixty to one at Pebble fifty five
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 4: in some other places fifty to one within each way
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 4: on bet three sixty five. So I like the spawn
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 4: bet quite a bit. And like I said, we've got
• 1:10:42
  Speaker 4: with three point zero percent to win that is not
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 4: factoring in any injury. So that's basically saying we think
• 1:10:48
  Speaker 4: he's healthy most of the time. When guys miss one
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 4: week in PGA and then return they missed, the fact
• 1:10:55
  Speaker 4: that they missed due to injury is a little bit
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 4: more like I have something bothering enough that I can
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 4: claim injury, where really I just feel like I needed
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 4: to work on my game for a week and now
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 4: maybe that game is good to go. So the upside
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 4: is very much there, and I love him in the
• 1:11:09
  Speaker 4: outright I get and people were mad last week.
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 3: It's like, oh, Susie w D Like, ah, what's his
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 3: rose pick?
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 4: Now?
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 2: It's like, what wasn't his rose pick? It was his
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 2: spawn pick the roses the week before he won. But
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 2: I liked that call out, so bringing him back in,
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 2: I know you were on the fifth number a little
• 1:11:24
  Speaker 2: bit earlier, so that's awesome to see as well.
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 3: Obviously played really well last week, didn't, you know, keep
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 3: it up the whole week.
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 2: But pretty crazy that, you know, again, just a takeaway
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 2: for everybody with DFS And that was a cut event.
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 2: But day one, Scotty was declared dead at whatever his number,
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 2: seventy three or whatever. And see wu I think shot
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 2: a seventy five or whatever the numbers were after day
• 1:11:47
  Speaker 2: one and Matt Fitzpatrick had won the tournament. Both those
• 1:11:50
  Speaker 2: golfers came back to beat Matt Fitzpatrick by at least
• 1:11:53
  Speaker 2: two strokes in the end, So yeah, it was two
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 2: strokes over them, fifteen hundred versus thirteen unders. So little
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 2: things like that that stand out all right, made it
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 2: to the end. We will get to our leverage lane
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 2: for the week.
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 3: I don't even know how I'm gonna say mine, so
• 1:12:07
  Speaker 3: I'll just I'll let you say yours first, and then
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 3: I will give a breakdown of mine and give people
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 3: something to think about.
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 4: Okay, So mine's kind of gonna be a combination of
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 4: what I already talked about, trying to buy a low
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 4: on players who are just very very good players long
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 4: term and haven't necessarily shown us much this season. But
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 4: I also am leaning into a metric that I recently created,
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 4: a Birdie rate over expectation. And essentially with this metric
• 1:12:34
  Speaker 4: is saying, and it's available in my discord, you can
• 1:12:37
  Speaker 4: use Promo Coo leverage for ten percent off forever if
• 1:12:39
  Speaker 4: you're interested in my discord. Essentially, what this is saying
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 4: is I am confident. I'm not very confident this week
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 4: and who's going to play well. The course fit model
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 4: is not conducive to predicting who's going to play well. Instead,
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 4: I am confident in who's going to score really well
• 1:12:54
  Speaker 4: if they play well. That's guys like at the top
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 4: Rory Victor Rose. These guys make a ton of birdies.
• 1:13:02
  Speaker 4: Then in the mid range it's Thorp, Jornsen Ober, came
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 4: Youong Burns, Jake Knapp, Pierson, Coody, Harry Hall, Jordan Speith,
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 4: Akshay Figala, Kiddyyama, Keith, Mitchell, Wyndham Clark. So lots of
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 4: these guys. Essentially, what you're saying is, when they play well,
• 1:13:20
  Speaker 4: they might finish fifteenth on the actual leaderboard, they might
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 4: be seventh on the DraftKings leaderboard. They're going to give
• 1:13:25
  Speaker 4: me a ton of birdies, They're going to give me streaks,
• 1:13:27
  Speaker 4: they're going to give me eagle opportunities. So I'm really
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 4: leaning into that aspect of it because I don't think
• 1:13:33
  Speaker 4: that I can accurately predict who's going to play well
• 1:13:36
  Speaker 4: on this golf course. So instead I'll predict who scores
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 4: really well when they play well. And this is also
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 4: naturally going to leave me to some contrarian guys, because
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 4: a lot of those guys, you know, the field is
• 1:13:47
  Speaker 4: almost even opposed to because one of the reasons why
• 1:13:50
  Speaker 4: someone gets to that really like high birdie rate over
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 4: expectation is because they also make too many mistakes. And
• 1:13:56
  Speaker 4: so the Field is a little bit scared by their
• 1:13:59
  Speaker 4: volatility and their downside, and I'm going to embrace that
• 1:14:01
  Speaker 4: and hope that they make a ton of birdies for me.
• 1:14:03
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I definitely love that angle. I mean I talked
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 2: a little bit about that stuff throughout as well. But
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 2: minds of me just to fade Scotty. I'm interested to
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 2: see where his ownership comes in. But I'm gonna add
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 2: to it, of course. I just want to note something like,
• 1:14:15
  Speaker 2: so the Scotty popular build with Scotty and let's say Straca,
• 1:14:19
  Speaker 2: let's just use Scotty Straka for a second, really involves
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 2: a six K guy. Like if you look at it
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 2: a million different ways, it's pretty much at least one
• 1:14:25
  Speaker 2: sixty seven or sixty eight hundred dollars guys. So just
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 2: a quick note, if you like the sixty seven or
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 2: sixty eight hundred dollars guy, what I would fade that
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 2: for is very simple. Every single Scotty Straca lineup can
• 1:14:39
  Speaker 2: be Rory and Fleetwood. So just a note if you
• 1:14:42
  Speaker 2: if you like the low end, I'm just giving you
• 1:14:43
  Speaker 2: the swapperouse here. That's a two v two SWAPERO. Your
• 1:14:47
  Speaker 2: six K guy can be different than the other ones.
• 1:14:48
  Speaker 2: But if you if you find the lineup like the
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 2: Scotty build and you realize it has Scotty and Straka,
• 1:14:53
  Speaker 2: I'm not playing that version. So that's the part of
• 1:14:55
  Speaker 2: my lane is I'm not going down that route. You
• 1:14:57
  Speaker 2: can flip that to Rory and Fleetwood. Those two it's
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 2: one for one. So just a little note there.
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 3: You're taking on the risk. You know what it is.
• 1:15:04
  Speaker 3: I can promise you with Rory and Fleetwood.
• 1:15:07
  Speaker 2: Even if they do get a little bit of steam,
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 2: I just don't know if they will at those prices,
• 1:15:10
  Speaker 2: especially together, you will still be able to get away
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 2: with kind of whatever.
• 1:15:13
  Speaker 3: You want down low.
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 2: I wouldn't go like all the chalk, but I'm just
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 2: saying you'd be able to move to the good plays
• 1:15:18
  Speaker 2: down there that you want, and just then you're battling
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 2: Rory and Fleetwood versus Scotty in seven mid seven K guy.
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 3: So there's that. But we'll see where ownership settles. I
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 3: have here's my big one.
• 1:15:27
  Speaker 2: I have a hard time believing that the eight K
• 1:15:30
  Speaker 2: range will be completely left alone. Like I think Day
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 2: will still get some. I think Griffin will still get some.
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 2: I think Ober McIntyre young we'll all pick up some steam.
• 1:15:38
  Speaker 2: I know the nine K is getting brought up, but
• 1:15:41
  Speaker 2: if you take Scotty Straka and the six K guy
• 1:15:44
  Speaker 2: out allah the first week when I was against you
• 1:15:47
  Speaker 2: on the Scotti side thing, you can get to three
• 1:15:50
  Speaker 2: nine K guys and just using Scotty Straka and sixty
• 1:15:53
  Speaker 2: seven hundred dollars, which is a very common build this week,
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 2: as we talked about rounding it all out, I can
• 1:15:58
  Speaker 2: play se Wou, Decki and got Her Up for the
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 2: same price, and that's where my lane's going to end.
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 2: I don't know what's gonna be on exactly those three,
• 1:16:06
  Speaker 2: but I told you I like Sea Wu, I like DECKI,
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 2: I like Rose, I like Henley, I like got Her Up.
• 1:16:11
  Speaker 3: I think you know, Henley's probably the least of those guys.
• 1:16:14
  Speaker 2: But those other four, some combination of three of those guys,
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 2: I can still sort of get away with whatever I want.
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 2: And even if they do pick up steam, it's we're
• 1:16:21
  Speaker 2: talking like fifteen to twenty percent range in most stuff
• 1:16:24
  Speaker 2: for that area, So I'm gonna be interested more in that.
• 1:16:26
  Speaker 3: If I do feel the nine K range gets pumped
• 1:16:29
  Speaker 3: up too much.
• 1:16:30
  Speaker 2: I can always go to my Rory Fleetwood and six
• 1:16:33
  Speaker 2: k guys, so fade Scottie, fade the common build and
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 2: then move it down to something in those two ranges
• 1:16:39
  Speaker 2: with exact swaperus. I call it the two v two
• 1:16:42
  Speaker 2: swaperoo or a three v three in this case if
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 2: you want it to be. But I think that's something
• 1:16:45
  Speaker 2: that I'm looking at for this week. Any other final
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 2: thoughts from you, Alex before we get out of here.
• 1:16:49
  Speaker 2: If not, you can let the people know where they
• 1:16:50
  Speaker 2: can find.
• 1:16:51
  Speaker 4: You at alex Plica one on Twitter. As I mentioned,
• 1:16:54
  Speaker 4: you can use promo code leverage for ten percent off
• 1:16:57
  Speaker 4: everything in my discord and that count is forever so
• 1:17:00
  Speaker 4: every single time at Renews and also over at FT
• 1:17:03
  Speaker 4: and Fantasy when you want that data, sign up with
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 4: promo code Blick you'll get ten percent off there.
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 2: Should note because the caveat people out there, the I
• 1:17:11
  Speaker 2: canti here it, so I'm bringing up now the single
• 1:17:13
  Speaker 2: entry I'm talking about is the two hundred dollars single
• 1:17:16
  Speaker 2: entry with fifty k on top when you see.
• 1:17:18
  Speaker 3: Me in by the way.
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 2: Another note, the five dollars drive the Green is the
• 1:17:21
  Speaker 2: best it's been ever so far, so I will be
• 1:17:24
  Speaker 2: definitely playing in that, not just it's cheaper, which is nice,
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 2: but it's also three hundred K prize school with thirty
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 2: K to first, three K to ten and something we
• 1:17:32
  Speaker 2: don't talk about a ton, but I love when it
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 2: comes to contest selection, is I actually prefer less people
• 1:17:37
  Speaker 2: get paid. I mean, like I always say, we played
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 2: a ship, and I know that's not how it works, though,
• 1:17:41
  Speaker 2: So I get why you want min cashes. I know
• 1:17:43
  Speaker 2: for sure why DraftKings wants more min cases just to
• 1:17:46
  Speaker 2: recycle the money, and I get all that's part of
• 1:17:48
  Speaker 2: oh if you want the game to stick around and.
• 1:17:49
  Speaker 3: Blah blah blah.
• 1:17:50
  Speaker 2: But my point would be, I like what they did
• 1:17:52
  Speaker 2: with poker, Like the World Series of Poker has like
• 1:17:55
  Speaker 2: a very nice payout structure. At the main event, they
• 1:17:57
  Speaker 2: usually only pay fifteen to eighteen percent of the field.
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 2: Though it's like if you you know, they could rejuvenate
• 1:18:01
  Speaker 2: cash games if you don't like only fifteen to eighteen
• 1:18:03
  Speaker 2: percent getting paid.
• 1:18:04
  Speaker 3: I just don't always think twenty five.
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 2: Like they let one hundred grand sit in eight thousandth
• 1:18:09
  Speaker 2: place to fifteen thousandth and it's like that's just min cash.
• 1:18:12
  Speaker 2: Is that you could just bump up the board and
• 1:18:14
  Speaker 2: make everything better and then everybody should play to win,
• 1:18:16
  Speaker 2: So I will say that before we get out here.
• 1:18:18
  Speaker 2: But yeah, in my mme stuff that you can play
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 2: some scotti for sure this week, but I prefer in
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 2: single letters to move off from completely. Even if it
• 1:18:25
  Speaker 2: was like twenty lineups or less, probably wouldn't be interested.
• 1:18:27
  Speaker 2: But in one fifty you'll see some scotti. Lastly, the
• 1:18:30
  Speaker 2: number one thing for us right now, you go to
• 1:18:31
  Speaker 2: shipnation dot com if you want to check out everything
• 1:18:33
  Speaker 2: we got with the site there. If you are on
• 1:18:36
  Speaker 2: our YouTube channel right now and you see the video
• 1:18:37
  Speaker 2: from yesterday, Hoop and myself broke down everything we've got
• 1:18:41
  Speaker 2: going on for members and non members this upcoming season
• 1:18:44
  Speaker 2: with PGA. And then lastly the one and done. We'll
• 1:18:46
  Speaker 2: do one more courtesy.
• 1:18:48
  Speaker 3: Refresh before we get at here four forty nine, so
• 1:18:51
  Speaker 3: it's getting closer to four to fifty, Alex. But yeah,
• 1:18:53
  Speaker 3: one thousand, six hundred and sixty seven, one hundred and
• 1:18:56
  Speaker 3: fifty K guaranteed. Go to splash sports dot com if
• 1:18:59
  Speaker 3: you want to use the promo code ship it for
• 1:19:00
  Speaker 3: referral code, you get a little bit of a bonus,
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 3: but even if you don't, the key is just if
• 1:19:03
  Speaker 3: you're already a splash sports user.
• 1:19:06
  Speaker 2: Whenever you are go to Splash Sports, put your hundred
• 1:19:08
  Speaker 2: bucks in. It works out to less than four dollars
• 1:19:10
  Speaker 2: per event to get in.
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 3: All right, that's gonna over this week. Guys, hope you enjoyed.
• 1:19:14
  Speaker 2: Remember to let us know in the comments if you
• 1:19:16
  Speaker 2: have any questions that you want us to talk about
• 1:19:18
  Speaker 2: in future, thought provoking questions or thoughts. If there's something
• 1:19:21
  Speaker 2: you love that we talked about you never heard it
• 1:19:22
  Speaker 2: that way or you had added thoughts to it, please
• 1:19:25
  Speaker 2: let us know. We're going to bring those comments up
• 1:19:27
  Speaker 2: in the coming weeks for Alex and for myself to
• 1:19:30
  Speaker 2: tag and Tambo good luck this week and led ship
• 1:19:33
  Speaker 2: it