Latest / Cultural Wars | America Out Loud News / Jeff Nyquist on the Hormuz crisis & why Trump must press forward in Iran

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Jeff Nyquist on the Hormuz crisis & why Trump must press forward in Iran · Cultural Wars | America Out Loud News

• 0:15
  Welcome to another edition of Trevor Loud Reports on America Out Loud.
• 0:20
  It hasn't been long, but we're back with Jeff Nyquist today because the situation in Iran and now Britain and the waters around Britain and of course Ukraine is moving very rapidly, and I know of no one who has a bit of perspective on events and Jeff.
• 0:38
  It's uh it's not uh there's a lot of people out there rah-rah-rawing, you know, that uh you know it's a great move by Trump to pause the Iran war, and it's a great move to start it.
• 0:50
  I certainly agreed with starting it, but I'm not a fan of pausing it.
• 0:54
  Um but Jeff.
• 0:56
  Uh well I was just introduced Jeff if those who haven't seen him.
• 0:59
  He's a geopolitical analyst, uh uh author of Origins of the Fourth World War, which is uh a very it was written several years ago, but it's still a book worth reading.
• 1:10
  And um and several other works as well is is a well-known geo geopolitical analyst and uh a great student of history and military history and an expert on the Soviet Union, Russia, China, etc.
• 1:26
  So welcome, Jeff.
• 1:27
  Thanks for coming back.
• 1:29
  Thanks for having me.
• 1:32
  Well, I want to talk about Iran, Jeff.
• 1:35
  You're welcome, by the way.
• 1:36
  I want to talk about Iran, but I want to talk briefly about news that's breaking now about the Russians um Russian submarines, I believe in British territorial waters or very close to hovering around some of their very important strategic cables, and Britain uh saying they better watch it or there'll be a strong response.
• 1:57
  Have you heard about this, Jeff?
• 1:59
  Yeah, the British are are um are trying to flex their flab.
• 2:06
  I don't know.
• 2:07
  Uh uh hopefully the British are able to effectively defend themselves.
• 2:12
  The Russian strength is in their submarine fleet.
• 2:15
  That is where they have real capability.
• 2:18
  Um it isn't quite like their army.
• 2:21
  Uh the the cursed class submarine, for example, can uh attack using cruise missiles, torpedoes, and ballistic missiles all at the same time.
• 2:30
  Against different targets.
• 2:32
  It's uh it's like a submersible battle cruiser.
• 2:35
  Uh it's an enormous uh the tonnage of the thing.
• 2:38
  It's the tonnage of a battleship and in uh in in terms of uh uh of uh well uh a pocket battleship, an old German pocket battleship in terms of uh being an undersea undersea ship, it's not even a boat.
• 2:51
  I mean it's too big.
• 2:52
  Yeah, he used to call them U-boats.
• 2:54
  No, this isn't a boat, this is a ship.
• 2:57
  It's big.
• 2:58
  Uh that's like how many how many people would be deployed on one of those things?
• 3:03
  Oh, the size of the crew of a cursed class.
• 3:06
  Yeah.
• 3:07
  Oh gosh, uh, I don't know, a hundred.
• 3:10
  I'm not sure what the cruise size is.
• 3:13
  It's it's it's it's it's an interesting question.
• 3:18
  Um and uh in terms of of ships, uh it's gotta be more than a hundred uh crew size of Kurt of Kurt Kurt of Kursk class, uh sub is uh it's easy to look up.
• 3:37
  Um wasn't 118 to 135 personnel.
• 3:42
  Wasn't it a Kursk that sunk about 20 years ago and America offered to help the Russians recover it and and Putin refused?
• 3:51
  Was that a Kursk back then?
• 3:53
  Yes, it was.
• 3:54
  Um this was uh a ship it was on trials in a military exercise in the uh Arctic Sea uh and uh off of um uh Murmansk, their great the great naval base, the home of the Northern Fleet of the Russian Northern Fleet.
• 4:10
  And it um there is a story, I think this is the true story of what happened.
• 4:14
  A Los Angeles class attack submarine was following it, uh observing the Russian exercise.
• 4:22
  And uh this is the story that uh they made a documentary film on it.
• 4:26
  I think it's the the evidence is very compelling to me.
• 4:30
  The uh there was maybe a collision, an underwater collision between the uh American submarine and the cursed class.
• 4:38
  This was in uh back in 2000.
• 4:41
  Yeah, uh and uh and the uh being that it was an exercise area, the captain of the cursed clasp armed his weapons, and the American submarine captain saw that they were arming the weapons to attack them because they'd been detected.
• 4:58
  And of course, uh our submarines have sensors that can tell when the Russian submarines are arming.
• 5:06
  So the American commander realized he would be sunk in a Russian military exercise zone.
• 5:14
  It would be all fair play.
• 5:15
  Oh, well, we didn't know.
• 5:16
  We we accidentally sank it, you know.
• 5:18
  He realized he was so he fired a torpedo at the conning tower of the Kursk.
• 5:24
  And uh it immediately, at that short distance, it basically immediately killed the control room and the captain and the ability to launch against him.
• 5:36
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• 6:07
  The Kursk uh hydroplane down.
• 6:10
  It was only in 310 feet of water.
• 6:13
  It it hit the bottom, and it and as they were loading torpedoes in their forward torpedo room, it ignited their torpedo room.
• 6:20
  But I think what caused them to strike the bottom was the hit on the control room.
• 6:24
  And I think that the definitive evidence was when the Norwegian divers came down and they helped salvage it.
• 6:29
  And the reason they had to salvage it, and this was the scandal for Russia, is it had nuclear weapons on board.
• 6:35
  And that wasn't supposed to be tactical nuclear weapons were not to be allowed on ships.
• 6:40
  That was an agreement that uh George H.
• 6:42
  W.
• 6:42
  Bush had made at the end of the Cold War.
• 6:44
  We would remove our tactical nuclear weapons from our submarines and surfer ships, and that they would do the same.
• 6:50
  But they had tactical nukes on that ships.
• 6:52
  The Norwegian divers later testified to seeing tactical nukes, nuclear weapons on that ship.
• 6:59
  Uh when it when it uh first went down, they the Russians would not accept help in rescuing anyone.
• 7:06
  And it turns out there were several crewmen at the back of the ship that could have been rescued.
• 7:11
  And they waited and they basically died of her uh hyperthermia because the temperature dropped in those waters uh and and they died down there miserably.
• 7:21
  But they were tapping, and they knew they were alive for quite a while.
• 7:25
  They could have been rescued, but Putin didn't allow it.
• 7:29
  Uh and finally the self-fellow.
• 7:32
  Yeah.
• 7:32
  Because that would have uh uh exposed his is lies about nuclear weapons that that would have thrown that, wouldn't it?
• 7:40
  Yeah, if there was any rescue effort, we we would have been close enough to the submarine and and possibly have gained access to the submarine if we'd helped them.
• 7:48
  And and I think that uh, you know, Putin interrupted his vacation to go meet with the families of the sailors in Murmask, and it was the first time that he was uh caught flat footed and gave a very bad um impression of himself to the Russian public.
• 8:04
  I think this is the first time you saw I think uh people like Anna Polakovsky and other Russian journalists who were who are now dead have been murdered, were very disturbed because it showed that Putin was an old KGB guy, that he didn't really care about the Russian people.
• 8:21
  Um and that there was something sinister about all this.
• 8:25
  Um what it what happened in the Kursk incident, I think it was uh we faked a boomer being damaged in a Norwegian port to divert they did massive depth charging.
• 8:37
  They went after the submarine, uh, and they and that Los Angeles class, I think it was damaged getting out.
• 8:44
  It it got out under the North Pole, came through the Barent Straits and returned to its base in um the West Coast, which is the captain of that Los Angeles class submarine.
• 8:56
  He should have got a medal for that, surely.
• 8:59
  Well, the uh yeah, yeah, it was uh well, it was uh I mean he saved his crew in a very difficult situation.
• 9:06
  I think um what happened in the what I've learned uh and what the documentary shows is the Clinton administration uh in its apology for it, we gave them a lot of money.
• 9:17
  We actually did a payoff because we accepted a certain portion of responsibility.
• 9:22
  And if you go back and you read the news headlines, there's there were some American interesting American payoffs to Russia at that time, and the Russians demanded to go into our sub-base under the that's the base you can see the openings under the Oakland Bay Bridge.
• 9:38
  They went uh uh um they went in there, they wanted to see the submarine that had done it.
• 9:45
  They wanted the Americans to basically fess up.
• 9:48
  Both countries have kept it secret since then.
• 9:52
  For a variety of reasons, obviously.
• 9:54
  Yeah.
• 9:54
  Yeah, but I okay.
• 9:55
  Well, that's a lot of background there.
• 9:57
  I didn't know.
• 9:58
  So currently
• 10:00
  You've got Britain.
• 10:02
  Um, you know, the Russians are getting very overt about threatening Britain and Britain is making noises.
• 10:09
  And you know, Kia Stama may go so far as to defriend Putin from Facebook, perhaps.
• 10:14
  What what do you think?
• 10:15
  What do you think might happen?
• 10:18
  I think the Russians are flexing their muscles and positioning themselves because they know that this war in the Middle East, there's an escalation.
• 10:27
  And Russia always uses intimidation tactics and bully tactics.
• 10:31
  And uh, you know, the the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, the British have an important role to play because they're the ones that have the mine clearing ships.
• 10:40
  They're the ones that specialize in that.
• 10:43
  Now, are there mines in the Strait of Hormuz?
• 10:45
  Uh I think the American uh military leaders have said, well, we haven't detected any.
• 10:50
  We don't think there are.
• 10:51
  But the today, as of today, the Iranians said, Oh, the strait is closed except for ships that we guide in because we have mined the strait.
• 11:01
  So the Iranians are claiming they have mined it, uh, which is interesting.
• 11:05
  And this is all part of this this thing, the strait is open.
• 11:09
  No, it's not, uh, actually, the strait is not opened.
• 11:12
  Uh, and and there's problems.
• 11:14
  You have to be guided by the Iranian military to get through.
• 11:17
  And of course, Shadow Fleet tankers are getting through, and of course, they're loading up with oil at um carg island.
• 11:25
  So, this so-called ceasefire is of no benefit to to Western countries or America at all that I can see.
• 11:33
  Not so far, no.
• 11:34
  It is uh I think the evolution of it is, and I think we're gonna find out that uh Vice President Vance had a role in here, getting together with the Russians and the Chinese.
• 11:44
  The Chinese knew that this infrastructure attack that would have been launched uh on Tuesday, you know, uh after 8 p.m.
• 11:54
  on Monday, I guess, um, that that would have been launched then uh, or or Tuesday, rather.
• 12:00
  Um I think that it it that the danger to Karg Island to destroying the infrastructure there, this is where the Chinese get their oil from Iran.
• 12:11
  They load up there, 90% of Iranian oil goes out through there.
• 12:15
  Uh, and they did not want this to happen.
• 12:18
  So the Chinese told the Iranians you'd better offer Trump a deal because we don't want him to go nuts and destroy this infrastructure, it's going to affect us, and we can't be affected by this.
• 12:30
  So the Iranians, they arrange this at Islamabad, a place where Trump can't ambush the negotiators with drones.
• 12:38
  Uh they they arrange this tomorrow, is when they're going to meet.
• 12:43
  But the Iranians have this 10-point plan, and Trump has posted it on his truth social, and it's like among the 10 points, it's America has to get out of the Middle East, uh, out of all our bases there.
• 12:55
  We have to pay war reparations.
• 12:57
  Uh, Iran is allowed to process uranium, you know, uh they're allowed to build as many missiles as they want, etc.
• 13:04
  etc.
• 13:04
  The the the basically American surrender.
• 13:08
  It's just yes, yes, it's peace, and you give us everything we want.
• 13:12
  And Trump called it a good framework for negotiating.
• 13:17
  And so it advance.
• 13:19
  Um so this is entirely Vance should be out opening post offices.
• 13:24
  He shouldn't be anywhere involved in any of this kind of stuff.
• 13:27
  Well, he's a heartbeat away, and it's funny.
• 13:30
  His if there's been some analysis that he's been his he's been leaking.
• 13:35
  He's been leaking stories to make himself look like he's the guy that was against this fiasco, and that he's the guy that could maybe uh facilitate a peace deal.
• 13:46
  And uh it's almost like he's preparing to throw Trump under the butt bus.
• 13:50
  Uh I think he's in doing this, it seems to me that uh in a very subtle way.
• 13:58
  This is an interpretation, and people will disagree.
• 14:00
  I think Vance is positioning himself for or at least testing the waters for a 25th amendment Article 4 removal of the president, because all the vice president has to do is is go to the cabinet, get eight of the 15 sitting cabinet members to say, look, this guy is incompetent, he's mentally unbalanced, or he's got the senility issues, health issues, he has to be uh removed and and and write a letter to the Senate, uh the the President Pro Tem of the Senate and the uh Speaker of the House with those eight uh uh they just need a bare majority of cabinet members signing off on this, and then Trump is no longer acting president, the vice president's the acting president until Congress can determine the president's competency.
• 14:53
  And that is that is that simple to do.
• 14:58
  Yes, it is.
• 14:59
  And the fact of these leaks from the vice president, they're obviously leaks from the vice president's office, indicates to me this is kind of the the first feelers that there is possibly a 25th amendment move on the way.
• 15:14
  Uh I think there's huge pressure from within the Republican Party now, under an undercurrent.
• 15:21
  They won't say this publicly to remove Trump.
• 15:24
  And I think that the Democrats are openly calling for many Democrats.
• 15:28
  You've heard them in the last couple days, Trump has to be removed by the 25th Amendment.
• 15:32
  They're urging the Republicans to do this themselves.
• 15:36
  Um if it can for a vote, I think I think uh a considerable number of Republicans would vote for it.
• 15:44
  I don't I don't uh I don't believe there's enough Trump loyalists in there to carry the day, do you?
• 15:49
  Aaron Powell Well, it's the cabinet that votes, it's the 15, it's the eight of the 15 that matters.
• 15:54
  And I think, yeah, I think in Congress, if the president were impeached, everybody, everybody with this with a sense of where this is headed in the Republican Party would vote for conviction in the Senate.
• 16:05
  I I don't think he'd have a chance.
• 16:07
  I think his presidency ended when he made this misstep of attacking without being adequately prepared on Iraq.
• 16:14
  He should have had ground forces, if he had ground forces prepared and was willing to take casualties and had the courage to do that.
• 16:22
  Uh I think that the Iranian regime might be unraveling right now.
• 16:26
  If if those ground forces were used correctly and there wasn't a fiasco in the ground battle, there's always a risk with ground fighting.
• 16:32
  But the excellence of our forces are such that uh a defeat of Iranian forces at Karg Island and then in the in the interior of the country uh could have unraveled the regime before the Chinese could send troops before the Russians could threaten nuclear war.
• 16:49
  Of course, this is sort of a side note.
• 16:52
  We don't know what the Chinese have threatened behind the scenes about Karg Island, what they've told Washington.
• 16:57
  We don't know what the conversations of the vice president have been with the with Russian or Chinese leaders.
• 17:03
  Um also uh we do know that on the eve of the supposed civilization ending strike that Trump was preparing against Iran, the civilian infrastructure strike, that uh uh Russia made noises about there's going to be a nuclear launch in the next 10 days, launch of a nuclear weapon.
• 17:23
  Now, what did they mean by that?
• 17:25
  Uh and and nobody really made note of this.
• 17:28
  I think that it's possible the Iranians have a nuclear weapon, uh perhaps more than one nuclear weapon given to them by the Russians, where the Russians control the permissive action codes that could activate the warhead.
• 17:42
  That they that is the Iranians couldn't use a nuke without the Russians signing off on it, and that the Russians, given this kind of attack on Iran would sign off on that because that would be the ultimate protection.
• 17:54
  That may have made this peace deal a need a must-do deal.
• 18:00
  If America were convinced that the Russians had given Iranians nukes and that the Russians would basically enable those nukes to hit, I don't know, American base, Israel, whatever, that could get you into a peace negotiation.
• 18:17
  And of course, both sides are very far away.
• 18:19
  And as a ceasefire, by the way, it hasn't been very good.
• 18:22
  Uh, within hours of the ceasefire being announced by President Trump, the Iranians launched missiles at Israel and the Gulf states, and there were several drone attacks.
• 18:30
  There was a attempted drone attack on Saudi Arabia, which amazingly the Saudis sought shot down all the drones.
• 18:37
  There was actually an attack on a Kuwaiti power plant and salination plant after the ceasefire began.
• 18:43
  And just today the Iranians shot down a um a proton um surveillance drone, uh military recon drone over the Persian Gulf.
• 18:55
  So the shooting hasn't stopped.
• 18:57
  The Iranians say that the Israelis have to stop fighting in Lebanon, and the Israelis say, well, that wasn't the agreement.
• 19:03
  The Israelis and the Americans, but the Iranians are saying yes.
• 19:05
  So they already are disagreeing over the terms of the ceasefire.
• 19:10
  And so it hasn't, and the Strait of Hormuz, which was supposed to be open on the 8th, yesterday was not really opened.
• 19:17
  And in terms of opening, it's important.
• 19:19
  The uh the Iranians are saying, well, they'll only let 10 to 15 tankers through when the normal tanker traffic is 130 a day.
• 19:28
  And so this is not really an answer to the West oil problem.
• 19:33
  Um, and in people, a lot of Americans, well, who cares about Europe and Japan?
• 19:37
  You know, we're we've got ours.
• 19:39
  But no, uh oil prices are global, and there's a real problem with uh with fertilizer and the rising cost of fertilizer if farmers can't afford it or it's not available.
• 19:50
  Uh you could have a famine, a global famine.
• 19:53
  Yes, this is a point you talked to me about the other day, and I hadn't considered it at all.
• 19:58
  So a lot of the
• 20:00
  Fertilizer used in the American Midwest is petrochemical based.
• 20:05
  Is that correct?
• 20:06
  Yeah, we've excuse me, we've exhausted our topsoil largely.
• 20:11
  And so most farming is uh they need the chemical fertilizers to get a good grow.
• 20:16
  And so these petrochemical fertilizers are absolutely essential to feeding a planet of eight billion people, if that's how many we have.
• 20:24
  A lot of people back in the 19 early 1980s, when I was in a student in political science were saying by the year 2020, we won't be able to feed everybody.
• 20:34
  But we've had warmer temperatures than normal, and we've developed, there's been a revolution in um in bioengineering, and so you have these uh uh Franken foods, you have these crops that grow more and yield more.
• 20:47
  Uh so we've been able to feed people.
• 20:49
  Um this is really threatened though now uh by this we've already had a lot of Ukrainian food production shut down because of the war in Ukraine.
• 20:57
  Uh but now you're talking about uh a another big threat.
• 21:02
  And and this is uh this is serious because you know, they're even saying experts are saying that even if everything goes well it uh full restoration of the oil uh coming out of the Persian Gulf may take two months.
• 21:16
  It might not be till early June that we have it restored, even at the best.
• 21:22
  So and with this very shaky ceasefire, which is really not being observed, um, it's it's a huge question mark.
• 21:31
  So there are many, you know.
• 21:33
  Uh uh look, I there's a lot of American conservatives uh out there are very rah-rah about this.
• 21:38
  And look, look, I I wanted Trump to attack um Iran.
• 21:43
  I don't want him to stop at all.
• 21:46
  I want him to take on the Russians and the Chinese and all of this.
• 21:50
  And and I know there are huge risks in that, but to me, the the risks are bigger if we don't.
• 21:55
  But you're talking about other things that most people aren't considering, you know, potential famine, um, also the Iranian threat to attack Middle Eastern desalination plants, which could cause a major um water shortage all through the Middle East, which is not just a problem, that's fatal potentially for millions of people.
• 22:18
  So it is surely, you know, you thought surely President Trump was taking this into account.
• 22:26
  Like the the story you sort of get is the Israelis were trying to sell him, and I everything's propaganda as far as I'm concerned.
• 22:34
  The Israelis were trying to say, look, attack Iran, the people will rise up, the mullah will be soon toppled, you'll be a hero, and everything will be over quickly.
• 22:45
  And that's what people are saying President Trump believed.
• 22:50
  Do you think that's really what he was sold?
• 22:52
  And the reality hasn't uh uh that the preparation wasn't really done.
• 22:57
  There was it was taken too casually.
• 23:00
  I well, yeah, I think that's the the their war strategy.
• 23:04
  Remember, if you go back to President Trump's statement at the beginning of the war, he basically said the Iranians, you know, stay in your homes, and then when this bombing is done, you'll be able to come out of your your shelter and and take your country back.
• 23:18
  Uh that was obviously stated by the president is the theory that was the Israeli theory.
• 23:23
  We kill the leadership, we decapitate, we destroy their and their defense a lot of their defenses, we attack some key um uh command and control, and the whole thing will fall apart.
• 23:34
  That was the it's he's sort of you can call it the rotten door theory.
• 23:38
  It's it's a theory uh that that Hitler uh had in invading Russia.
• 23:42
  He said, Oh, the Soviet Union is a rotten door, all we have to do is kick it in, and the whole place will collapse.
• 23:47
  Uh this was the theory of the Israelis in in this bombing campaign against Iran, and the president signed off on it, and they kicked in the rotten door and they they surprise attacked and they just they killed most of the Iranian top leaders, and it didn't the regime didn't fall apart.
• 24:02
  It it's it's it's still there and it's still fighting.
• 24:06
  Well, see, we had major rebellions in Iran a few months ago, and uh I I think had Trump continued when when the uh the first of the 12-day war had that continued, I think maybe the time would have been right for it, right for regime change then, but Trump didn't press it through, and then the Iran then people protested and Iran killed tens of thousands of them.
• 24:33
  Perhaps and I think that's the problem that the the leaders are dead.
• 24:38
  The leaders are either dead or completely intimidated, and I think Iran did that um very systematically, knowing that more was to come and they better get on top of this.
• 24:50
  So I think President Trump may have missed that opportunity, and now it's gonna take a heck of a lot more.
• 24:56
  Um the you'd have to get forced regime change from above to to for the people to actually do anything now.
• 25:02
  I think I think there is a major miscalculation in the Israeli idea of decapitation and the Americans signing off on it because uh if you just do a simple analysis of that kind of attack, you are attacking senior leaders, you're killing them, right?
• 25:16
  Senior leaders are older.
• 25:18
  Older people are more cautious and less likely to be fanatical and hard liners.
• 25:23
  You'll find that in most systems the second or third-tier leaders are the hardest liners of all because young men, as opposed to old men or younger men, uh have more testosterone and are more aggressive.
• 25:39
  Yeah, it's the kid goes shove is the Mahama Gaddafi, it's these young Turks, isn't it?
• 25:45
  That yeah, you know, overturn regimes and turn into little hard liners.
• 25:50
  Yeah, yeah.
• 25:52
  But we have to cause it you call a quick break here, Jeff.
• 25:55
  But it's fascinating, we'll be straight back after this.
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• 28:46
  Welcome back to America.
• 28:50
  Jeff Nightwiss were discussing the Iranian situation.
• 28:58
  And I I think Jeff's got a perspective that you you you just don't hear anywhere else.
• 29:02
  He he every angle he looks at, you know.
• 29:06
  What are the implications for world food shortage?
• 29:09
  What are what are we going to do about the desalinization plants in the Middle East that that hunt that tens of millions of people rely on?
• 29:18
  You know, the the a lot of implications that a lot of people just I haven't seen discussed anywhere but but with Jeff.
• 29:26
  So what what's um so it looks like miscalculation?
• 29:31
  It looks like Trump is dialing back his expectations.
• 29:35
  He talked about regime change again just before um, you know, before the deadline, he he did mention regime change, which I was heartened by.
• 29:45
  But what's your reading of of what Trump's intentions are now?
• 29:52
  It's interesting.
• 29:53
  Uh the two-week ceasefire.
• 29:55
  Um it seems to me that uh troops and supplies are poor.
• 30:00
  In now.
• 30:00
  And I think they should have had troops at the very beginning.
• 30:04
  They should have been seizing Karg Island.
• 30:06
  They should have been getting a beachhead or a an air bridgehead, you know, capture an air base somewhere in Iran and uh and bring in troops in that air base and start to uh make sure the Iranian people see American troops in person on the ground where they can be encouraged where you can start arming Iranians and maybe Iranian army units might go over to you in small numbers or Iranian troops would defect, not in an organized way, but come over to you and then you can arm them, because I I think it's it is difficult to get the Iranian army because I think they have a uh something similar to a commissar system, where if a if a colonel tries to take a battalion against the government, there's uh uh a number of people in that battalion who will then take him out.
• 30:49
  They'll kill him and take charge of the unit.
• 30:52
  Uh this is the way the Soviet Union and China organize their militaries.
• 30:56
  Um, and and I think the Russian Federation has admitted they have the same system now.
• 31:01
  That's how they keep their troops in line at the front in Ukraine.
• 31:04
  Um I think that would be the only way this would work.
• 31:08
  Uh we're really good at ground warfare.
• 31:11
  Uh of course, the drone element, we would be taking casualties higher than the Iraq war.
• 31:16
  But uh look, uh wars you must take casualties if you want to win.
• 31:21
  If you're going to be serious, uh, you have to do that.
• 31:24
  This is uh the a problem though.
• 31:26
  Uh I think we might be close to unraveling the regime if we'd started out with air strikes with the idea of going in with troops, but we didn't do that.
• 31:37
  Well, just interestingly, a while ago I was talking to you, and you were talking about you're going to listen to someone who claimed that we could win this by an air campaign alone.
• 31:50
  And I left that you were going to listen to this guy and see how convincing his arguments were because you because you did respect him.
• 31:57
  Yes, John Moser.
• 31:58
  Yes.
• 31:59
  Yeah, what was his name again?
• 32:00
  Sorry?
• 32:01
  John Mosier, he's a military historian.
• 32:03
  He's he's written some fantastic books.
• 32:06
  You listened to his argument.
• 32:07
  Was there anything there that was compelling to you?
• 32:09
  Or do you think or you do you still hold to your original position that's a good idea?
• 32:13
  Yeah, there's not there's nothing compelling, and I'm waiting for John to say, okay, this isn't okay.
• 32:21
  I was premature in judging this.
• 32:23
  Uh I think a lot of people have not fully understood the drone thing, the the the importance of drones and very small uh you could say uh electronically controlled devices that can move around you.
• 32:38
  We talk about IADs in the Iraq war, and a lot of them came from Iran.
• 32:43
  Imagine an IAD that moves or flies.
• 32:46
  That's what a drone is.
• 32:47
  That's what a kamikaze drone is.
• 32:49
  It's an AI AID that flies only, it even has a bigger warhead charge on it.
• 32:53
  They could take out a tank, could take out an airplane on an airstrip, can take out a helicopter.
• 32:58
  Um and and we don't know what this what the full state of Iranian development is.
• 33:04
  We know the Iranians have been involved in drone development in the Ukraine war.
• 33:08
  The Ukrainians are the world leaders.
• 33:10
  Uh it's very interesting that Saudi Arabia stopped the last drone strike just after the ceasefire.
• 33:16
  Uh, was it because Zelensky had already transferred some new drone interception technology?
• 33:22
  The Iranian, the the uh Saudis seem to be very forward looking and and having Zelensky come and meet with them.
• 33:28
  I'm I'm just it's a shame that the Ukrainian generals haven't been invited to the Pentagon to help us.
• 33:34
  I think this is the the fact that um Vance is with Orban now and saying we must elect Orban Orban is a Russian puppet in in Hungary.
• 33:45
  How how can he support this guy?
• 33:49
  Yeah, exactly.
• 33:50
  Why why are we supporting uh Orban at all?
• 33:53
  He is a Russian puppet.
• 33:55
  There's no question about this, an old communist party operative turned so-called conservative who does everything Russia wants.
• 34:04
  And and and the vice president is over there right now cheering them on.
• 34:08
  You know, that it's a very bad look.
• 34:10
  Uh well, and it's it's just polling foreign policy.
• 34:14
  And the vice president there was saying very stupid things about the Ukraine war.
• 34:18
  Uh so the for the vice president to say that this is a good deal that the Iranians are offering, it's completely crazy.
• 34:26
  It's like you say surrender.
• 34:28
  Um the problem is is that you know, you've got this show dumb and dumber.
• 34:34
  I I think that uh Vance is not a person who reads, he doesn't have a real good grasp on these military issues, just like Trump didn't when he went in here.
• 34:43
  Uh, you know, and so Trump's next move.
• 34:46
  I think I think there's some experts that think he's setting up an attack uh uh uh on Carg Island.
• 34:52
  Now they're saying a lot of people saying, oh, well, it's gonna be with Marines uh using um landing craft.
• 34:59
  I'm not sure with the Strait of Hormuz closed how you get marine landing craft there.
• 35:04
  I think you would have to do it with like the 82nd Airborne, the 7th Cavalry, you have to use uh helicopters uh to bring the troops into the island.
• 35:13
  That's quite risky because helicopters can be shot down by a number of systems.
• 35:17
  Uh but of course you saw what we did in Venezuela when when they when they basically kidnapped Maduro, the president of the country right out of a military base.
• 35:27
  So uh the argument could be made, and it could be a fiasco, or we could go in there successfully and just grab that island.
• 35:34
  And if we grab that island with relatively few casualties and there wasn't a mass dwarf uh drone swarm attack that successfully took out helicopters and killed a lot of troops, uh, we would have then the uh an advanced position.
• 35:47
  There's an airstrip there, we could then start leapfrogging.
• 35:52
  The British did this in the Burma campaign against the Japanese, they used air transports to get over the jungle to take airfields to hop in and to be able to roll back the Japanese in Burma.
• 36:03
  It was it was a new kind of warfare that the British were using.
• 36:07
  Uh, they didn't really have great success, but they had some success.
• 36:11
  That's the kind of thing, though, with this modern techniques of vertical envelopment that we we would have to do to defeat Iran.
• 36:18
  And and and I hope that they're thinking in that way.
• 36:21
  But the problem is all this takes time, and they've lost precious time with that Strait of Hormuz being closed.
• 36:27
  And the problem is the beating, the longer the world economy takes a beating, the more pressure there is on the White House and on the Pentagon that you have to suspend this war and you have to give in to the Iranian terms because we're dying here economically.
• 36:45
  Well, yeah, look uh President Trump.
• 36:47
  Look, I I cannot see any way out but forward here.
• 36:51
  Because if there's a retreat here and all this is for nothing, well, that's not gonna be something that President Trump can campaign on.
• 37:00
  And and uh if if we give us a random, you know, he can to me can only go forward because going backwards and and the pressure for impeachment if he retreats is gonna amp up.
• 37:13
  The only way forward is victory that I can see.
• 37:17
  I can't see any other way out from or anybody.
• 37:20
  That's the problem.
• 37:21
  Trump has gotten himself into this uh blind alley with the only way out is to go forward deeper into it.
• 37:30
  And uh, you know, the ground swell against using ground troops, even within Trump's camp, is very high.
• 37:41
  They don't want Americans to die in this.
• 37:44
  The problem is to get out of this without suffering a major strategic defeat for the United States would, which would very possibly be so weak in the United States, we would not be uh a world power anymore if this went through because of the damage to our economy, uh the damage to the petrodollar.
• 38:03
  We have our role in the world.
• 38:05
  We export our inflation because they people trade in petrol dollars, there's trillions of them out there.
• 38:11
  If if we do not uh win this, then our position is destroyed strategically.
• 38:18
  Our economic position and our strategic military position.
• 38:22
  This is a this is a double deal here.
• 38:25
  And so, and and also Trump's presidency's at an end.
• 38:29
  I think a lot of people have already pronounced him dead on arrival, that he's already a dead duck.
• 38:35
  Um, if he could pull a victory, fall uh fall forward like Inspector Clouzeau and somehow, you know, somehow bungle his way forward and win.
• 38:48
  Uh if we see two weeks from now an attack on Karg Island and it's highly successful, that will shake the regime in the sense that the regime's ground forces will have been defeated decisively by a vertical envelopment, which means any Iranian air base can now on the mainland be subject to a similar attack.
• 39:06
  And the Americans can then start, and they will lose helicopters, they will lose troops.
• 39:12
  Now, in the Vietnam War, there was uh a kind of push into Laos in Cambodia and uh and a huge number of American and uh Arvin helicopters were uh shot down.
• 39:24
  It it was, you know, some people considered it a strategic failure.
• 39:27
  Uh it it helicopters are very vulnerable.
• 39:30
  Now, with the air suppression that we've done, and of course, uh we haven't suppressed all anti-air systems.
• 39:37
  Uh, I don't think we we necessarily, if it's done right, and we've got really smart some military really our smartest military people.
• 39:46
  It is possible this could could work.
• 39:48
  Would Trump go for it?
• 39:51
  I think he's in a desperate enough position that he might.
• 39:54
  But again, all these Republican and Democratic politicians, all these executives and business people.
• 40:00
  Banks, they are they're all in panic mode.
• 40:03
  And the the messages the White House is undoubtedly receiving are all you know, give them what they want, you know, get that straight open no matter what, and they see the only way as negotiation.
• 40:15
  If you go forward with a war to defeat Iran, it's going to take several weeks more, and and that economic damage, nobody wants to face that really severe economic damage.
• 40:27
  Or the electoral damage as well.
• 40:29
  But this is saying, and I'm glad you raised the point.
• 40:32
  So many American conservatives, they they always talk about Europe being freeloaders and America bears the cost all around the world.
• 40:40
  And that's that's true.
• 40:43
  But America, as you say, is always deficit spending, and because we have the world's reserve currency, we can export that inflation all over the planet.
• 40:55
  And so, you know, everybody that takes American dollars is getting defrauded a little bit every year through inflation.
• 41:03
  And they're willing to do that, they're willing to do that because America keeps the peace and keeps the world stable.
• 41:10
  It's protection money.
• 41:12
  But if we are not doing that, if we are not protecting the world, we're not keeping things stable.
• 41:17
  They're gonna dump the dollar.
• 41:19
  We're gonna our economy is gonna sink, we'll have interest rates through the roof, and America is a as a world power is over, meaning freedom and the world is over.
• 41:30
  And why am I being too hyperbolic then, Jim?
• 41:34
  No, and in fact, our enemies know this.
• 41:36
  Uh, in fact, the Iranians started out saying, well, to buy oil in the Persian Gulf, you're gonna have to pay in yuan's uh Chinese currency.
• 41:43
  Uh now they've changed it.
• 41:45
  Interestingly enough, that indicates Russian imp inputs, they want to use uh these uh digital currencies, which the Russians have been involved in, and I I think have been uh I think if you look into it, the Russians have an involvement in it because the Russians use them for money laundering, and it's been a key Russian thing.
• 42:04
  So the Russians are heavily invested in these these cyber currencies, and uh this would pump the Russians up again.
• 42:12
  So I I think you you're seeing the Iranians obviously taking strategic advice from the Russians and the Chinese in terms of their negotiations, and then in terms of what they want to impose, and it's the fact that they want to impose a non-dollar trading regime, whether it's the cyber currency, whether it's a Chinese currency or or some combination of the two, uh, it this is going to be part of the negotiation, I believe, ultimately.
• 42:38
  Yeah, like a few months ago, people were saying, you know, the the BRICS is dead, you know, the alternative dollar alternative system is dead, and it sort of looked like maybe it was, but this this that Trump has walked into this may well turn that around.
• 42:54
  Yeah, the strength of the dollar was based on this system, which now we see with the Strait of our most closed was much more fragile than anyone realized.
• 43:03
  Um the the uh every attempt that the Russians and Chinese have made to try, like in micro areas in trades to get away from the dollar, they've been burned.
• 43:16
  Because what happens is they use these other currencies, these currencies don't work out, and they have end up losing a whole bunch of money and having to go back to dollars.
• 43:25
  And uh that's always and you could say these are like feelers, these are like um little little tests of the global financial system.
• 43:34
  And so the dollar is just remained preeminent, and this is the first really serious thing that could derail the dollar as a trading currency, and it it's strategic implement uh implications are massive because without that dollar exporting the dollar inflation, without what it gives our economy, we could not maintain the military that we have.
• 43:58
  We would we're already in massive budget territory.
• 44:01
  Trump wants uh what 1.5 billion dollar defense budget, uh a trillion, sorry, 1.5 trillion dollar defense budget.
• 44:09
  Uh and and there's there's really it's like, well, where is the money going to come from?
• 44:14
  It and and there is gonna be no money if they can't export inflation, and we're headed for a large inflation either way.
• 44:22
  And if if that the problem, what happens if this money is normally used for these oil trades, if these petrodollars come flooding back to the US, they will push up the stock market into a bubble, and they will also bubble real estate and and certain other investments.
• 44:38
  And the problem with bubbles is they burst.
• 44:40
  And when they burst, massive unemployment, you get depression like uh problems like you saw in 2008, where people are laid off, only much more serious because of the, you know, uh the Austrian economists pointed out, Ludovic von Mises wrote the damage done to an economy is done by the inflation, the deflation is actually the healing.
• 45:02
  That but that's the painful part, the layouts and everything else, all the moon beam farms going out of business, and so because you have this massive malinvestment into economy because you have all these dollars that have nowhere to go, and how do they retain their value?
• 45:15
  Well, you have to invest them.
• 45:17
  And that's where the inflation ends up going.
• 45:19
  So this is what we're facing, aside from the problem with uh inflating uh fertilizer prices, which is is the other side.
• 45:30
  So the pressure on the White House here and the pressure from the vice president, honestly, in in attempting a kind of uh 25th Amendment coup, this is very potentially very serious.
• 45:44
  Yeah, on multiple fronts, isn't it?
• 45:46
  That's it's uh so you know, if you if you're looking at the position of Trump, you know, he's gotta go forward, he's gotta win.
• 45:55
  He he can't back down now, but he's got people all around and pressuring to do that.
• 46:02
  But he must know that if he does that, they're gonna come after him.
• 46:05
  The knives the only way he survives is to win.
• 46:09
  Yeah, it is quite true.
• 46:11
  He has to pull a rabbit.
• 46:13
  Yeah, yeah, it's a little like Putin in Ukraine.
• 46:15
  If Putin doesn't win in Ukraine, he's finished.
• 46:18
  Yeah, and and of course, uh because of this the complex interactions of international pressure, domestic pressure, economic uh difficulties.
• 46:29
  Uh it is it it's Clauswitz calls this friction.
• 46:33
  You want to win a war, you want to take the steps you need, but now you have the friction of people saying, No, we don't want this, no, you can't do this, no, you have to negotiate.
• 46:42
  Uh, you know, no, we'll we'll we'll we'll play the 25th amendment on you, or we'll impeach you, you know, further down the line.
• 46:50
  You could even imagine if the uh economy started to come unraveled and there was no peace after three more months of this that the Republicans would be for impeaching Trump in the Congress.
• 47:00
  You know, well, that's right.
• 47:02
  They'd all be looking at losing their jobs in November, wouldn't they?
• 47:05
  Everybody, everybody would be uh this and this is where Clauswitz is the philosopher of war is so important.
• 47:13
  I mean, it's it's moral, and you know, Napoleon had the statement, uh moral factors are three to one over the physical factors.
• 47:21
  You might have the troops to win a war, but if your morale is collapsed, you're gonna retreat or lose or surrender.
• 47:27
  Uh it's when your morale collapses that people your troops start leaving the field, they start running away.
• 47:33
  You might even be on the point of victory when your men just think you've lost and they run away.
• 47:38
  Uh so psychological factors uh and moral factors are much more important in these things.
• 47:45
  And the Vietnam War was a great illustration of that, wasn't it?
• 47:48
  Absolutely.
• 47:49
  You that's spot on.
• 47:51
  Uh, the Vietnam War was we won every battle, every major battle we won.
• 47:56
  Uh we we we destroyed hundreds of thousands of of North Vietnamese army troops in Viet Cong.
• 48:03
  Uh, but it didn't matter in the end, because we demoralized, we we just didn't want to have anything to do with it anymore, we quit.
• 48:12
  And and the Army of the Republic of Vietnam collapsed.
• 48:15
  And and this is the problem uh we have here.
• 48:19
  Uh Trump, it seems to be, and Netanyahu have supplied the will to do this, uh, where other leaders wouldn't do it.
• 48:28
  And Trump has made this uh uh position clear uh before, saying, look, nobody before me had the you know nerve to do this, I alone had the nerve.
• 48:40
  Uh now we see whether he loses his nerve in the face of all the criticism and all of the opposition.
• 48:48
  If he had been a person who listens who understood what he was doing, however, uh he might have already had a victory, maybe, we don't know.
• 48:57
  It's always a roll of the dice when you're attacking a country of 23, 93 million people, uh, that's organized in a very tight way.
• 49:06
  These are not Arabs, these are not even the Chinese or the Russians.
• 49:09
  These people are really good at organization, the Iranians.
• 49:12
  And this is a fanatical regime, and they have uh an elite core of fanatical fighters who are willing to, if if we could beat them head on in ground fighting, then you'd have a basis of their soldiers running away, they're losing faith in the regime.
• 49:30
  You could have a rapid unraveling.
• 49:31
  But now, if this thing drags on, the Chinese are talking about sending 100,000 troops, the North Koreans are talking about sending troops, the Russians are making noises about nuclear war.
• 49:41
  Of course, nobody really believes their nuclear threats anymore because they've made so many of them.
• 49:46
  But um, but yeah, it's it's hard to know how this will go.
• 49:51
  When we get if we get into June, and it's the same as it is now, um, and it it's possible the people that are saying that.
• 50:00
  That Trump is planning using the two weeks of the ceasefire to get the troops set up for an attack on Carg Island.
• 50:05
  It could be the beginning of something that could succeed.
• 50:14
  Whether this could work.
• 50:19
  Or, you know, they give Trump the option.
• 50:21
  If they dare to give him the option, I think Trump would say yes to it because it's a way out for him.
• 50:27
  But would Trump actually trample on the Chinese toes?
• 50:31
  Because attacking Cargo.
• 50:32
  Well, that that's that's a big factor, isn't it?
• 50:35
  He is always backed off directly confronting the Chinese in recent times and multiple ways.
• 50:41
  And the Russians too.
• 50:43
  So we can wishfully think that he would do this, but there's not a lot to indicate that he directly confront Russia or China.
• 50:50
  Yeah.
• 50:50
  I, you know, letting the Russian oil ship into Cuba recently.
• 50:57
  Yes.
• 50:57
  Yes, that was a shock because we had thought he was seizing the Shadow Fleet tankers.
• 51:03
  He was directing the oil from Venezuela, but now he lets this oil into Cuba.
• 51:09
  You know, and so there's some kind of pressure.
• 51:11
  This goes takes us back to the Epstein question.
• 51:14
  Uh what pressure, you know, I think uh Senator White House has said that um Epstein was moving, had moved uh more than a billion dollars through Russian banks.
• 51:26
  One particular Russian bank, and he claims that's in the files.
• 51:29
  And of course, some of these congressmen have seen the files that were not released, and and this is a bomb that's that's going to drop.
• 51:36
  This is a bombshell that's going to drop here.
• 51:38
  The Epstein stuff.
• 51:40
  If Epstein was a Russian uh agent, which he was.
• 51:45
  Which I think that that is, you know, if you had to bet the farm, you'd bet the farm on that, not that he was Mossad.
• 51:51
  This is a guy who wouldn't set foot in Israel, but he went to Russia all the time.
• 51:54
  And White House says that he was banking in Russia, and it's a honey trap, it's a classic thing.
• 52:00
  I know from my sources the Russians were involved in in uh creating pedophile rings, and of course, the connection to uh Robert Maxwell, who was setting up uh uh front companies with Soviet money at the end of the Cold War, and they're his daughter is partners with him.
• 52:15
  I mean, it it looks pretty obvious.
• 52:16
  And if Trump was this guy's best friend for 15 years, and Trump is married to uh a supermodel or a model from uh communist Czechoslovakia, right?
• 52:24
  His first wife, uh, it's like uh come on, give me a break.
• 52:28
  We can see that there's got to be pressure on Trump from Moscow and Beijing that he that he has compromised himself in the past, that he's not a completely free actor on his own.
• 52:38
  And I think this Cuban ship thing is an ominous sign.
• 52:42
  I'm glad you pointed that out.
• 52:45
  Yeah, yeah, like look if this uh I just wish Bibi Netanyahu was in charge of this, because uh uh I don't think he would be hesitating right now.
• 52:54
  I'm sure he was uh protesting when the 12-day war ended, and I'm sure he's protesting now.
• 53:01
  Um he wants to finish the job.
• 53:04
  Well, this is a good point.
• 53:05
  The actual interest strategic interests of Israel in the United States in beginning this war together, they're not identical.
• 53:11
  Their interests aren't identical.
• 53:13
  The Israelis have an issue with Hezbollah in Lebanon, and they're not going to give up that fight because of this treaty, and the Iranians aren't gonna accept an agreement or even the ceasefire as legitimate unless the Israelis stop in Lebanon.
• 53:28
  So that's that's a point of departure that the Israelis are not on the same page with us because they have vital strategic interests that are not aligning with ours.
• 53:37
  Our vital interest is that Strait of Hormuz.
• 53:40
  We want that Strait of Hormones open as soon as we can.
• 53:43
  In fact, if Trump had the option to go back to the standing uh status quo ante before the war, he would.
• 53:50
  I think he would immediately do it.
• 53:52
  Uh, but he can't.
• 53:54
  And and this discovery that the world has made that um this waterway can be blocked by the Iranians, and there's nothing the Americans can do about it, at least that's the impression right now.
• 54:05
  Um that is um that is devastating.
• 54:10
  That is really the key point.
• 54:12
  And if negotiations happen on that basis, see, I think what Trump why Trump might go to Carg Island and step on the Chinese toes is that he might say, now China, I've got your your oil spigot in Iran.
• 54:25
  And if you want the oil, now you're cut off.
• 54:27
  Now you have to pressure the Iranians into giving us what we want.
• 54:32
  And that might be part of that Trump might be thinking that because remember, even if Trump is compromised in some sense, he's still president of the United States, he can do things to increase his negotiating position with them, even if they're holding something over on him.
• 54:49
  And uh, and he is in this if he is if he is competent mentally enough to understand his position, which is you know, some people are saying, uh look at the tweet he did on Easter.
• 55:03
  Uh he used the F-word.
• 55:05
  He said, Allah is great at the end of it.
• 55:08
  He, according to Amnesty International threatened a war crime, uh, that is not a sober kind of thing.
• 55:15
  That's not statesmanship.
• 55:17
  That's sort of nuts.
• 55:18
  And he, you know, he had this civilization ending uh truth social message, I think it was on Monday, that was really grotesque, you know.
• 55:29
  Uh, and and what I think it was the Easter message you talked about, you know, power plant day.
• 55:35
  Um the uh humanitarian, if you knocked out all the power plants in Iran, they are in a five-year drought.
• 55:43
  They have to pump, they have to have electricity to pump water out of their wells to be able to have water for 93 million people.
• 55:52
  They even have salination plants, which couldn't function without power.
• 55:56
  What happens when 93 million people and you only have a water resources enough for 50 million people?
• 56:04
  What how how many people die?
• 56:06
  Well, nobody knows.
• 56:08
  Thousands probably or tens of thousands.
• 56:10
  Yeah.
• 56:11
  We'll just share their water, wouldn't they?
• 56:12
  That all be generous and just calm and loving and fine.
• 56:16
  All sound advice.
• 56:17
  I hope the president's listening, or people around the president.
• 56:20
  I hope it's uh goes through the ether and to his consciousness, and this is what happens.
• 56:27
  Everything else is too bad to contemplate.
• 56:30
  But thanks again, Jeff.
• 56:31
  You're always uh uh a very uh strong alternative viewpoint.
• 56:36
  So um look, uh signing off now.
• 56:39
  Thanks, Jeff.
• 56:40
  Thanks to the listeners, and we'll uh we'll watch what happens.
• 56:44
  Yeah, thank you for having me.