Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 395 - 11/13/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

Transcript

Episode 395 - 11/13/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

• 0:01
  54321 All systems Go with Josh Applebaum starts now.
• 0:13
  Hello and welcome. To.
• 0:15
  Episode. 395 of the all systems. Go sports betting podcast
• 0:21
  powered by rhythm I'm your. Host Josh.
• 0:24
  Applebaum What's going on, everyone?
• 0:30
  Happy. Thirsty.
• 0:31
  Thursday. That's right, it's a Thursday.
• 0:34
  So you know, we have Thursday Night Football lined up here,
• 0:36
  guys. It's a big one in my.
• 0:38
  Neck of the woods, New England Patriots.
• 0:40
  Hosting the New York. Jets, This line's been moving
• 0:43
  both side and total, but I do have a play for you, which it's
• 0:46
  a gross one, but it's got a really good rhythm edge with a
• 0:49
  lot of. Boxes being checked.
• 0:50
  Off so you. Might want to hold your nose
• 0:52
  and. Consider this one here for
• 0:54
  tonight. I.
• 0:55
  Also want to remind. Everyone that we do have.
• 0:56
  Our rhythm live stream tonight the rhythm rundown so my.
• 0:59
  My buddy Kate Harper will be breaking down all the games.
• 1:02
  For the NFL and college football coming.
• 1:05
  This weekend from a. Data-driven rhythm perspective
• 1:07
  looking at discrepancies. Between what the betting?
• 1:10
  Market is offering. And of course, what rhythm.
• 1:13
  Is predicting so looking forward.
• 1:14
  To that, but it's kind of a bit big podcast.
• 1:16
  I got Thursday Night Football. I want to talk about I have one
• 1:19
  college basketball game. We're going to go back to the
• 1:21
  well with a added game. Extra game, obscure sharp line
• 1:24
  move that also. Includes a good Ken.
• 1:27
  Palm edge so excited to talk that one and then also I kind
• 1:31
  of. Buried the lead.
• 1:32
  I actually have an NHL. Play for you hockey.
• 1:35
  Play and let me just tell you, I grew up playing hockey.
• 1:38
  I love hockey, I'm a die hard Bruins fan.
• 1:40
  But hockey, I kind of go back and forth like I've had some
• 1:43
  incredible years with hockey. I know some of you might
• 1:46
  remember, I think. It was maybe 3 years ago.
• 1:48
  Like favorite systems were crushing.
• 1:50
  It was in my best years ever in hockey and then, you know, last
• 1:53
  couple years hockey's just. Been Really.
• 1:54
  Erratic and it's a very low bet sport so you really.
• 1:57
  Don't have any contrarian. Value so I pretty.
• 1:59
  Much stopped betting hockey, but I'm looking at the board.
• 2:02
  All the state is lining up. There's some injuries here.
• 2:05
  Bet against the team. That's struggled and is on their
• 2:07
  third string goalie and it's. Really not a bad price here, so
• 2:10
  we'll give you a play. In the NHL and then couple plays
• 2:14
  in the NFL. Now, again, we've had a lot.
• 2:16
  Of matching. And different games throughout.
• 2:17
  The week so unlike our usual, you know, Tuesday.
• 2:20
  Look ahead college football Wednesday.
• 2:22
  Look at NFLI. Kind of want to let the dust
• 2:25
  settle a little bit. And there are two games that
• 2:27
  are. Really.
• 2:28
  Really. Jumping out to me.
• 2:29
  One is an epic fade, the trendy dog play.
• 2:32
  The other. 1 is a really gross but very sharp dog play in prime
• 2:36
  time that you might want to grab now before the line falls too
• 2:39
  much. So a lot to talk about on
• 2:40
  today's pod, Thursday Night Football, Pats and The Jets
• 2:44
  little college hoops. Little NHL and some.
• 2:47
  Look headlines here upcoming. For this weekend in the NFLI do.
• 2:51
  Want to mention. As well.
• 2:52
  I got my fingers crossed. I'm rooting pretty hard for this
• 2:54
  one, but back on May 16th going back a ways.
• 2:59
  Now at this point. What is that?
• 3:01
  Six months ago, I put in a bet on Shohei Otani plus one. 55 to
• 3:05
  win the NLMVP. Obviously he closed as like AI.
• 3:09
  Don't know -10,000 favorite. But tonight they announced the
• 3:12
  MVP, so I'm hoping Otani gets that.
• 3:15
  And maybe we can get a futures play if you did bet Otani.
• 3:18
  At somewhat of a plus money number.
• 3:20
  Earlier in the year. Now looking back to last night
• 3:23
  guys. 2 and 2 minus. 0.4 units. We had a great hit in college
• 3:27
  football. Central Michigan came up.
• 3:30
  Massive for the team. Central Michigan, if you
• 3:32
  remember. Money.
• 3:33
  Line them around. -1 and. 1/2 - 2 Will they close?
• 3:35
  2 1/2. So we read that thing pretty.
• 3:38
  Pretty perfectly and. They had some great turnovers.
• 3:42
  Really Buffalo quarterback coughed it up multiple times.
• 3:44
  Central Michigan played great, 138 to 19.
• 3:47
  And remember that system we talked about with those Maxon
• 3:50
  favorites at home? What was it, 81?
• 3:53
  Percent. Well, another winner.
• 3:54
  There for the home favorites. So it's nice to see Central
• 3:56
  Michigan. We also got Valpo in college
• 3:58
  basketball. Valparaiso hung on. 68 to 63.
• 4:03
  Obscure sharp line move -1 up to. -2 two and a half.
• 4:06
  But the ones that were frustrating were IPFW because
• 4:10
  Purdue Fort Wayne, they're up. Early.
• 4:12
  And they're up at halftime, then got their doors blown off in the
• 4:15
  second-half. Remember, they were -1 up to 3
• 4:17
  1/2. Even 4.
• 4:19
  So they let. Us down.
• 4:20
  And the other one that let us down was.
• 4:21
  Evansville. Evansville had that.
• 4:24
  Good sharp line move as well -2 up to. 2 1/2 good split and they
• 4:29
  made it interesting late but could not get that thing.
• 4:32
  Tied up or force OT lost 77 to 72 so.
• 4:36
  One and two college hoops, but. One and O in in matching so a.
• 4:40
  Two and two day. Let's see if we can.
• 4:42
  Crush or not? Crush, but just.
• 4:44
  Eek out and scratch and claw and get a winning day here for
• 4:47
  today. So that being said.
• 4:49
  Let's start off with Thursday Night Football.
• 4:51
  I'll tell you guys, I don't remember the last time the
• 4:53
  Patriots, I mean, you could kind of say.
• 4:54
  The Buffalo Bills game. In prime time.
• 4:56
  Few weeks ago but. Man getting excited about a
• 4:59
  primetime Patriots. Game I'm getting PTSD.
• 5:02
  Or not or guess. What's the opposite of PTSD?
• 5:05
  Great flashbacks to the. Tom Brady days, It's nice to
• 5:07
  have the Patriots. Playing a meaningful.
• 5:09
  Game once again. But anyway, at home against The
• 5:11
  Jets, let's set the stage. Talk splits, talk system
• 5:14
  matches. I'll.
• 5:14
  Give you my play for this one. So coming into it, we have The
• 5:17
  Jets. 2:00 and 7:00 but they actually started O and. 7 and
• 5:20
  and they won two straight. I remember they had that.
• 5:22
  Crazy 3938 win over the Browns and they won last week 27 to 20.
• 5:28
  Who was that? The Bengals.
• 5:29
  That crazy win and then beat the Browns 2720 last week 1
• 5:32
  outright. As a 1 1/2 point home dog,
• 5:34
  Meanwhile, the Pats. Eight and two, I'm happy.
• 5:37
  Because I got a good team. Again and catch the.
• 5:39
  Over 7 half win total, which is always nice.
• 5:42
  They've won seven in a row, just took down the.
• 5:44
  Bucks 28231 outright as a 2 1/2 point Rd. dog so.
• 5:48
  What we've? Seen across the market here.
• 5:50
  Well, just a. Massive line move.
• 5:52
  Toward the Patriots. The Patriots open this game as
• 5:55
  low as a 10 and a. Half Point Home Favorite
• 5:57
  Patriots are now up to -12 1/2 minus. 1 - 13 some books even
• 6:03
  -13 1/2 so it's been very. Clear the lines.
• 6:06
  Going to New England so in situations like this and you can
• 6:09
  read it one of two ways one. If you bet the Patriots early
• 6:12
  -10 1/2 -, 11 1/2, you know, even minus. 12 you're beating
• 6:17
  the closing. Line you're You're sitting
• 6:18
  pretty right now, but. If you're laying.
• 6:22
  The Patriots now, yes, you're with the.
• 6:23
  Line move -13. But you're kind of getting the
• 6:26
  worst of the number. So in situations like this, do
• 6:29
  you want to be with the line move and get the?
• 6:30
  Worst of the number or. Do you feel like the value might
• 6:33
  be gone? And there's an opportunity to
• 6:34
  buy low and take that inflated dog.
• 6:36
  That's a question you have to ask yourself as a better because
• 6:39
  if you tell me like the Patriots, I'm not going to argue
• 6:41
  with. You because it's pretty clear
• 6:42
  the markets. Moving in their direction, but
• 6:45
  not so fast. Listen to a few.
• 6:46
  Of these these. Factors at play number.
• 6:49
  One the bet splits are intriguing to me you know if.
• 6:52
  You look at the splits right now, the.
• 6:54
  Patriots are getting 58. Percent of spread bets.
• 6:57
  However, they're only getting 52.
• 6:58
  Percent of spread dollars. Now that's not a.
• 6:59
  Huge discrepancy. But if you flip it the other
• 7:02
  way, it's a little bit sharp toward The Jets. 42% bets. 48%
• 7:06
  dollars, but listen to this at Circa. 52.
• 7:09
  Percent of spread bets are on The Jets, but it accounts for.
• 7:11
  79. Percent of spread dollars.
• 7:14
  So if you like the the Patriots move, I'm not.
• 7:17
  Going to argue with you again. The market clearly got adjusted.
• 7:20
  Bigly in favor of the. Pats, but the splits are not.
• 7:23
  Patriots, you know, 60% of bets 80.
• 7:26
  Percent of dollars. You know, 40.
• 7:28
  Percent bets, 70% dollars. No that the actual sharp splits
• 7:31
  here are on The Jets as an inflated gross hazmat dog play.
• 7:36
  And believe it or not, that's where I'm going.
• 7:37
  Even though I'm a. Patriots fan, the signs move.
• 7:39
  Quite a bit I. Jumped on The Jets.
• 7:41
  At Plus. 13 1/2. Now I tweeted this out earlier
• 7:45
  at Josh under Score Insights. How you can really?
• 7:48
  Increase your chances. Of winning with odds logic,
• 7:50
  because odds logic you can find the patriots -12 1/2 still you
• 7:55
  can also find The Jets plus. 13 1/2.
• 7:57
  And right now you can get The Jets Plus. 13 1/2 - 115 at ESPN
• 8:02
  Bet. You can also get.
• 8:04
  Under 43 1/2 or over 42 1/2. So there's kind of AI, don't
• 8:07
  know, maybe a bit of a disagreement with some of these
• 8:10
  books. You can split the difference and
• 8:11
  say 13 and maybe 43. So it just tells you different
• 8:16
  books have different prices and if you like the Pats you better
• 8:19
  get that 12 1/2. But if you want to go jets.
• 8:21
  Like I'm going. To do plus 13 1/2. -1. 15 at
• 8:25
  ESPN Bet. Now aside from the splits, the
• 8:27
  inflated line dog, we do have prime time dogs. 18 and. 13
• 8:30
  against the spread. 58% this year. 10% ROI they are one. 59
• 8:35
  and 139 ATS 53%. 2% ROI since. 2020 big.
• 8:41
  Prime time dogs getting. 6 1/2. Or more.
• 8:44
  They're seven and three against the.
• 8:45
  Spread this year 70. Percent 33% ROI since the start
• 8:49
  of the 20. 20 season they're 60 and 41.
• 8:51
  Against the spread. 59. Percent, 14% ROI.
• 8:55
  Then if you'll get prime time dogs, the really, really big
• 8:57
  ones, getting 12 points or more, it doesn't happen very often.
• 9:01
  But those teams are. Eight and three against the
• 9:03
  spread 73 percent, 37% ROI. So it goes to show you that in
• 9:09
  prime time. You know, dogs, big dogs, and
• 9:12
  even. Bigger dogs they have barked so
• 9:13
  they'd spot The Jets are in as gross as they look and admit,
• 9:17
  you know, no Garrett Wilson, Jets are terrible, yadda yadda,
• 9:20
  hey. But still, you're getting these
• 9:21
  historical advantages in your favor with The Jets.
• 9:25
  Jets, jets, jets. Inflated dogs.
• 9:27
  So if you are a dog, getting at least two points off the opener.
• 9:30
  So you open plus 10 1/2, now you're up to. 13 or even 13 1/2
• 9:35
  those teams are 36 and 32 ATS 50. 3% this year, 1% ROI if the
• 9:40
  inflated dog two or more is getting +7 or more.
• 9:44
  They're 14 and 10 against the spread this year, 58.
• 9:47
  Percent, 11% ROI. Then you get to some
• 9:50
  correlative. Betting advantages with The
• 9:51
  Jets. This total is pretty low.
• 9:54
  It opened as high as 46 1/2. It's down to 40.
• 9:56
  Three and a half 4342 1/2 and you are getting a dog again.
• 10:00
  You can get the hook plus 13 1/2 and a low total game in which
• 10:05
  the. You know, fair amount of
• 10:07
  expected points scored make it harder for the favorite to cover
• 10:09
  the number. That's an advantage to The Jets.
• 10:12
  Jets are also. A divisional dog.
• 10:14
  Historically we've seen divisional.
• 10:15
  Dogs bark louder than non divisional.
• 10:17
  Dogs because of that built in familiarity, leveling the
• 10:20
  playing field and benefiting the team getting points.
• 10:23
  Divisional dogs. Since 2019 are 322 and 282 ATS
• 10:27
  53. Percent 3% ROI Rd. divisional
• 10:31
  dogs. 198 and 162 ATS 50. 5 percent, 6%.
• 10:36
  ROI since 2019. So you add it all up lines.
• 10:40
  Getting big, bigly steamed. Toward the Pats, but does it
• 10:43
  create an? Opportunity because it's moved.
• 10:44
  So much to buy low on The Jets. So from that standpoint, prime
• 10:49
  time dog, divisional dog, inflated line dog play.
• 10:53
  But then, here's what really. Kind of got me.
• 10:55
  Even more excited to play The Jets again.
• 10:57
  Am I excited? No.
• 10:58
  I'm terrified they might lose by 20, but I got to stay true to
• 11:03
  rhythm. Rhythm has.
• 11:05
  I have 3 system plays on this game.
• 11:08
  They're all in The Jets and the system matches are Jets plus
• 11:11
  7.7, Jets plus 7.9, and Jets. Plus 8.2 and that eight point. 2
• 11:17
  is a green star recommended play, so again as gross.
• 11:20
  As it is. If you're playing the Patriots
• 11:23
  right now, yes, you're with the line move, but you're getting
• 11:25
  the worst of it. Jets, you're buying low.
• 11:28
  You're holding your nose. And you're hoping the Patriots
• 11:31
  win? I don't know.
• 11:34
  Let's see. 24 to 13. Something like that.
• 11:38
  Or. 27 to 15. Who knows?
• 11:42
  But I am going to take the points as gross.
• 11:43
  As it is. I got to.
• 11:45
  Cover up the names of the teams. Not let my bias get injected
• 11:48
  here. As a Patriots fan and.
• 11:50
  And play the value play. So I'm going Jets plus 13 and.
• 11:53
  1/2 God help me -115 tonight. The total is interesting, just
• 11:58
  wanted to mention it has fallen. You're getting 50% bets 63.
• 12:02
  Percent dollars on the under DK at circa 25% bets 78% of dollars
• 12:07
  on the under Prime time unders are. 19 and 15 this year, 56.
• 12:11
  Percent and they are 58%. Since 2019.
• 12:15
  Outdoor divisional unders are. 16 and 13 this year, 55.
• 12:19
  Percent and they are 54% since. 2017 Both teams.
• 12:24
  Ranked toward the bottom third in the NFL and pace of play and
• 12:26
  it's not going to be a terrible weather play like it's actually
• 12:29
  kind of a decent day I'm. I'm a little bit.
• 12:32
  Northwest of Boston, and if you don't know Foxborough, it's not
• 12:36
  in Boston. It's about an hour South of
• 12:38
  Boston. Foxborough, it's not bad.
• 12:41
  It's going to be mid 30s, no precipitation, mild 5 mile per
• 12:44
  hour winds so. If you're looking for a windy
• 12:46
  under. You're not getting it.
• 12:47
  But the total has fallen so. We'll see how this thing plays
• 12:51
  out. But I am going jets plus 13F.
• 12:54
  -115. And I would lean under here
• 12:56
  based on this line dropping a bit.
• 12:58
  Now let's keep on cruising. I got to play for you in college
• 13:02
  basketball, so it's kind of a small.
• 13:04
  Slate today only 17. Games overall, but I landed on a
• 13:07
  game that reminds me of Valpo last night.
• 13:11
  With the add a game extra game line move.
• 13:14
  So the game is. 8:00 Charleston Southern against.
• 13:18
  Alabama A&M. Now Charleston Southern comes in
• 13:21
  two and one. They just beat Citadel 96 to 80.
• 13:24
  6 Alabama A and. M1 and one.
• 13:27
  They beat up on. Blue Mountain.
• 13:29
  In their first game, 86 or 80 to 60, and then they played Indiana
• 13:33
  powerhouse. They lost. 98 to 51, so going
• 13:36
  into it. Add a game extra game game three
• 13:38
  O 661-530-6616. It opened up basically a pick em
• 13:43
  a pick. Em or a very short. -1 Alabama A
• 13:46
  and. M now.
• 13:48
  Alabama A&M. Has been bet up.
• 13:50
  To -1 1/2. And a lot of these one and a
• 13:52
  halfs are juiced up -1. 15 like it may go to two so.
• 13:56
  On a night of Thursday Night Football and we have NBA, we
• 13:59
  have NHLA Lot of lots going on tonight this.
• 14:02
  Tiny little overlook. Game that the public doesn't
• 14:04
  care about, has no interest in. It's getting the line move here.
• 14:07
  Tells me sharps have targeted Alabama ANM.
• 14:11
  I went Alabama A&M on the money line. -130 shop around some
• 14:15
  looks as high as -135 but DraftKings.
• 14:18
  I like the money line split. 59% bets but 82.
• 14:21
  Percent of dollars. Alabama A&M.
• 14:24
  Is rested. I mentioned this the other day.
• 14:26
  College rest isn't huge. To me, but it does mean that you
• 14:29
  have. More time in the gym to practice
• 14:31
  so. Alabama A&M last played on the.
• 14:33
  5th of November Charleston Southern played on the 10th and
• 14:37
  this is their second straight Rd. game.
• 14:38
  So maybe an advantage hopefully for.
• 14:40
  Alabama A&M. Ken Palm has.
• 14:43
  Alabama A&M. Winning by two points and my
• 14:46
  buddy Greg Hoops. Peterson, he's a great.
• 14:48
  Follow on Twitter. He has Alabama A and M -, 3
• 14:52
  point. 5 S Hoops likes. Alabama A&M.
• 14:55
  Ken Palm has a winning by two rest slash gym practice.
• 15:00
  Advantage. Good money line.
• 15:01
  Split add a game. Extra game Steam.
• 15:04
  I want Alabama. A&M, hopefully.
• 15:05
  To win this game. -130. On the money line now let's move
• 15:10
  over to some hockey where my. Puck heads at.
• 15:13
  Again, it's weird for me talking hockey because.
• 15:15
  I loved it and played it every day for years and then I just
• 15:17
  said I'm it's too erratic. So I'm taking a.
• 15:20
  While off and then I look at the board today, I notice a big line
• 15:25
  move. I do some more digging and like
• 15:28
  a lot. Of things make me like this
• 15:29
  game. Not from a bias perspective.
• 15:31
  But from a data perspective. So it's a 7 O clock game LA
• 15:35
  Kings at the Toronto Maple Leafs.
• 15:37
  Now the Kings come in 8-5 and one.
• 15:39
  But they have 1-2 straight and three of their last. 4 Maple
• 15:42
  Leafs are. 88 and 1. They've lost three straight.
• 15:46
  First thing I noticed is a line move.
• 15:48
  Toward the Kings. I like the Kings money line here
• 15:50
  guys. I got the kings. -1. 34 at
• 15:53
  FanDuel. Shop around some books -135.
• 15:55
  -140. But this game opened as
• 15:58
  basically a pick em type. Play it was around minus. 110 -.
• 16:01
  115 LA slightly, slightly favored, but now we've seen LA
• 16:04
  again get. Steamed all the way up around
• 16:06
  -135 S about a. $0.20 Steam move in favor of the.
• 16:10
  Kings tells us. Smart money here.
• 16:12
  Got down hard on the LA Kings. I like the bet splits if you
• 16:16
  look at DraftKings right now. 54%.
• 16:19
  Of money line bets, but 72. Percent of money line.
• 16:22
  Dollars. Are coming in here on the Kings
• 16:25
  and. Couple other angles #1 Austin
• 16:28
  Matthews is out, Austin Matthews got.
• 16:30
  Hurt against the Bruins. He's not playing.
• 16:32
  So the best player. One of the best players in
• 16:34
  hockey? Best.
• 16:34
  Player on the Leafs not playing tonight.
• 16:37
  Then you. Look at the.
• 16:38
  System match that I have. On the LA Kings, a road favorite
• 16:42
  with steam who made the postseason.
• 16:45
  The previous year so. If you're on the road, you're
• 16:47
  favored. You're expected to win.
• 16:49
  You're getting a steam move. Of $0.20 or more.
• 16:53
  Those teams this year are 14 and 8.
• 16:56
  Straight up 64 percent, 10% ROI since the start.
• 17:00
  Of the 2019 season, those teams. Are. 178 and one O 363.
• 17:05
  Percent with a 5% ROI. So this is a system that's been.
• 17:11
  Pretty good historically. It matches here with the Kings
• 17:14
  tonight. Couple more angles the.
• 17:16
  Goaltending Darcy Kemper is expected.
• 17:18
  To be the goalie. For the Kings.
• 17:21
  He's been good. Knock on Wood 6.
• 17:23
  Three and three, two point. 4 O goals against, nine O 8 save
• 17:26
  percentage guy in net. For the Leafs, I.
• 17:29
  Admit I've never heard of his name is.
• 17:31
  Dennis Hildeby. He's O and two.
• 17:35
  With a 3.7 four goals against nine O 9 save.
• 17:38
  Percentage so is. Their third string goalie
• 17:40
  Stollars got hurt. The Kings have been good on the
• 17:44
  road seven one and two. Their defensive prowess is much
• 17:48
  better than the King the the Leafs.
• 17:49
  They're giving up two. .9 goals a game doesn't sound great.
• 17:52
  Leafs are. Giving up 3.8 goals.
• 17:54
  Per game. So no Austin Matthews third
• 17:57
  string. Goalie for the Leafs Steam.
• 18:00
  And big system match in favor of the.
• 18:01
  Kings they've been. Good on the road.
• 18:03
  Good bet splits. Taking a shot on the.
• 18:05
  LA kings, hopefully. To get a win for us tonight.
• 18:08
  I got them minus. 134. At FanDuel now, we haven't
• 18:13
  really talked at all about the NFL Week 11 slate passed today.
• 18:16
  Well, guess what? I.
• 18:17
  Got a couple plays. For you, that jumped out to me.
• 18:20
  The first one. Let's go to a Sunday Night
• 18:22
  Football game. This should be a great one.
• 18:23
  Maybe it's the NFC Championship Game.
• 18:26
  Detroit Lions, Philadelphia Eagles.
• 18:29
  Now I love this spot. For the Eagles.
• 18:32
  You might say to yourself, yeah, but they're a favorite.
• 18:34
  They're super popular. Right.
• 18:36
  No. This is a fade.
• 18:37
  The trendy dog play, believe it or not, public is all over
• 18:40
  Detroit. I get it.
• 18:41
  Detroit's a good team. Philly keeps.
• 18:43
  Winning, but they keep. Winning ugly.
• 18:45
  Detroit's playing great, however.
• 18:48
  This game opened as low as Philly. -1 -, 1 1/2.
• 18:52
  Philly is now up to -2 1/2. And they're juiced up like they.
• 18:55
  May go to three. Now why is that important?
• 18:58
  Because the public is all over. Detroit.
• 19:01
  Detroit is getting. 66 or 67% of spread bets.
• 19:06
  So if you. Flip it the other.
• 19:07
  Way Philly's only getting 30. 3% of spread bets but. 46.
• 19:10
  Percent of spread dollars at DK at Circa.
• 19:13
  Philly's only getting 36%. Of bets but. 62.
• 19:17
  Percent of dollars so low bets higher dollars heavily bet
• 19:20
  primetime game Publix on Detroit, but the line.
• 19:23
  Is going to Philly. I do have a straight up system
• 19:26
  match both off the win. Both off win.
• 19:28
  Take the the favorite. That system is 72.
• 19:31
  Percent 7%. ROI since 2022.
• 19:34
  Obviously, Jalen. Hurts has been.
• 19:36
  Great in his career at home, especially as a short.
• 19:37
  Favorite as well. So if I see a prime time game
• 19:41
  where the public's hammering Detroit but the Lions going to
• 19:43
  Philly, I'm. Going to play Philly.
• 19:45
  Here on a sharp. Brown, I got Philly.
• 19:48
  On the money line at. -140 some shops as high as. -150.
• 19:52
  And it does have a six. Percent sharp mush edge Nothing.
• 19:55
  Crazy but. A little bit more of the sharp
• 19:57
  set. Juice Reel also.
• 19:59
  Going Philly and then a game, I teased.
• 20:01
  Earlier I I played it because I want to get it before it falls.
• 20:04
  We're going Raiders plus 3 1/2. This is a Monday night game, so
• 20:09
  you know we'll have tomorrow's pod.
• 20:10
  Then we'll have the weekend. We'll come.
• 20:11
  Back on Monday, we'll have a full breakdown, but I don't.
• 20:13
  Want to wait too long and then maybe have people miss the hook
• 20:16
  because this game opened? Dallas basically a 3 1/2 point
• 20:19
  Rd. Favorite Publix all over Dallas.
• 20:22
  They're getting nearly 80. Percent of spread bets, but
• 20:25
  they're still 3 1/2. And it's actually juice like it
• 20:27
  may fall. To three because Vegas plus 3
• 20:30
  1/2. Is -1. 15 -, 120 So my whole
• 20:33
  point. Here is if Dallas wins by three.
• 20:35
  And you get the hook with Vegas, you're.
• 20:36
  Going to catch that bet. If they win by three, you're
• 20:39
  late and get a three. Hey, you're going.
• 20:40
  To you're going to push that instead of winning.
• 20:43
  So I love the fact that it lines coming back toward Vegas.
• 20:45
  They're insanely contrarian, only getting 20% of spread bets.
• 20:50
  In a heavily bet. Monday night game Rhythm has
• 20:53
  Vegas plus 2.7, so hey, little bit of an edge there on the 3
• 20:57
  1/2. And this would also be a prime
• 20:59
  time dog. Pete Carol has a dog.
• 21:01
  And. Dallas, I know they traded for
• 21:02
  Quinn and Williams, but Dallas in the spot, lane points on the
• 21:06
  road. I'm going to go the other way
• 21:09
  and take Vegas here, so hopefully, hopefully Geno Smith
• 21:12
  can keep this one close, but I did.
• 21:13
  Play Raiders plus 3 1/2 hopefully.
• 21:15
  Before it falls to three. So that about does it.
• 21:19
  For episode 390. Five of the all.
• 21:22
  Systems Go Sports Betting podcast Power by Rhythm This is
• 21:25
  the part of the pod where we wrap things up and I always
• 21:27
  start first by saying. Thank you.
• 21:29
  Thank you for listening. Thank you for tuning in.
• 21:31
  Thank you for grinding through the ups and downs of sports
• 21:34
  betting it. Ain't it ain't an easy career.
• 21:36
  It ain't an easy. You know investment or you know,
• 21:40
  think you know kind of. Side hustle, whatever you want
• 21:42
  to call it. But we keep grinding.
• 21:44
  We keep staying true. To the data-driven approach.
• 21:47
  And I really appreciate you guys.
• 21:48
  Supporting and listening. And tuning in.
• 21:50
  So if you do want to. Give it a five star review.
• 21:52
  Please give this pot a five star review on Spotify or iTunes if
• 21:56
  you want to leave a nice comment or click the follow button or
• 21:59
  recommend the pod to a friend or retweet.
• 22:00
  The pod when I. Tweeted out at Josh under Score
• 22:03
  Insights that would be very much appreciated.
• 22:06
  Next if you enjoy. The style of sports betting.
• 22:08
  data-driven sharp contrarian betting focusing on line
• 22:10
  movement. Split system matches.
• 22:12
  Betting numbers, not teams. And let's cliche, but it's true.
• 22:16
  Then you know what? If you want to learn more about
• 22:18
  data-driven betting, you need a stocking stuffer or a holiday
• 22:21
  gift for somebody coming up here with Christmas Hanukkah holiday
• 22:24
  season upon us. You should go to.
• 22:26
  Amazon.com. And get it out of the way now
• 22:29
  you'll. Be happy you did.
• 22:30
  When everyone's procrastinating. And going to the store, you
• 22:33
  know, two days before Christmas, you'll have it all ready to go,
• 22:36
  ready for night one of Hanukkah can.
• 22:38
  You can tell. Can you tell I'm one of those
• 22:39
  kids that grew up with both Hanukkah and Christmas?
• 22:43
  I am one of those those half breeds I guess you could say.
• 22:46
  If you want to pick up. The NFL sharp betting playbook
• 22:48
  or the. Everything guide to sports
• 22:50
  betting. Both of my books are available
• 22:51
  on Amazon. You'd make my day if you wanted
• 22:53
  to buy one. And it would mean a lot to me
• 22:56
  and you'll learn more about betting and you can gift.
• 22:58
  It to someone. Who could use some data-driven
• 23:00
  tips? So buy one or both of them.
• 23:02
  Bring them to the sports book. I'll sign them for you.
• 23:03
  I'll buy a beer. Or ginger ale.
• 23:05
  We'll sweat some games together. Next, have you downloaded Rhythm
• 23:08
  and Juice Reel yet? My 2.
• 23:09
  Favorite. Sports betting apps Rhythm
• 23:11
  Fantastic for their AI backed models and predictions for game
• 23:14
  bets and player props. Reminder, we will have our live
• 23:17
  stream tonight. At 6:00 PM Eastern Time, so
• 23:19
  looking. Forward to that.
• 23:21
  And then Juice Reel. Where you can support the pod.
• 23:23
  By signing up to get the all. Systems go official best bet
• 23:26
  picks for $4. And $0.99 a week.
• 23:28
  From the Juice Reel tab you also get the Robo Jackson plays,
• 23:32
  Sharp motion indicators, arbitrage opportunities all
• 23:36
  available. With the Juice Reel app.
• 23:37
  So download rhythm, download juice reel.
• 23:39
  Give them a five star review in the App Store.
• 23:41
  Next you have a live odds page. If you don't, you need one.
• 23:44
  You got to be able to check the. Market even.
• 23:46
  If you have a different style of approach to betting, maybe
• 23:50
  you're a pro. You play your discrepancies.
• 23:52
  Hopefully you're a bit of a sharp contrarian.
• 23:54
  Better even if you. Are the public type better?
• 23:56
  You just play what you want to play with your gut.
• 23:58
  I would advise against that long term, but still.
• 24:01
  You're going to need to be able to.
• 24:02
  At least find the best number, track the market and you can.
• 24:05
  Do that with odds. Logic.
• 24:07
  So go to oddslogic.com/josh 123. You'll get a 7 day free trial
• 24:12
  and 50% off your first. Month of service.
• 24:16
  Next, have you downloaded Novig? Yet.
• 24:18
  Well, if you haven't, now is the time.
• 24:19
  Novig is a sports betting exchange.
• 24:22
  It's not a sports book. And the big reason for that, a
• 24:25
  big advantage I should say, is that you're not going to get.
• 24:27
  Crushed with these juice. Prices.
• 24:29
  Because it's not a book. They're not.
• 24:31
  Jacking you up with -115 -? 120 juice.
• 24:33
  Prices it's pretty much always side total and better money
• 24:37
  lines, but side total minus one O 5 -, 1 O 8 plus one O 2.
• 24:41
  Plus one O 6. So download Novig and plug in in
• 24:44
  the promo code Josh 1/2. 3 when you fund your account.
• 24:48
  You will get 100% deposit match up.
• 24:51
  To 25 bucks. So that about dozen guys.
• 24:54
  Another pot in the books. Big Thursday night ahead, as
• 24:56
  always. Whether I see you at the Borgata
• 24:58
  in Atlantic City, Twin River in. Rhode Island The.
• 25:00
  Brooklyn, New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan.
• 25:02
  Sundown in Connecticut at the Encore in Boston Plain Ridge
• 25:06
  Park. Casino MGM Springfield the Nash
• 25:08
  in my. Neck of the woods on the border
• 25:10
  of. Massachusetts in New Hampshire.
• 25:12
  Or of course, out in the desert where the true grinders get
• 25:14
  down, or Billy Walters sends his number runners with lowest juice
• 25:17
  possible is found at the South Point, or sweat and sharp
• 25:20
  contrarian plays. Jumping in the stadium swimming
• 25:22
  pool when you. Catch a big ticket at Circa,
• 25:24
  wherever it may be. You're going to walk up to me.
• 25:26
  Show me a nice Central Michigan. That was my favorite play last
• 25:29
  night. That was nice to see them roll
• 25:30
  for us. Or a Valpo.
• 25:32
  Ticket. And first one's on me next.
• 25:34
  One's on you. We'll post about the book.
• 25:35
  Sweat sharp contrarian plays. All night long.
• 25:39
  So about a dozen. Guys coming off a. 2:00 and
• 25:40
  2:00. Four and OO and four, three and
• 25:42
  one, one. And three.
• 25:43
  Good night, bad night. Mediocre night whether you're
• 25:46
  grinding and just not making the profits you want.
• 25:49
  Or you're great. And, you know, getting you.
• 25:52
  Know plus unit nights you know hand over foot or you're
• 25:55
  struggling and blow water and just fighting to get back above
• 25:58
  water that's. Sports betting, we're always
• 26:00
  going to be in. One of those positions, so
• 26:02
  never. Get too high when things are
• 26:03
  going well, never get too low and.
• 26:05
  When we're struggling. We got to stick.
• 26:06
  With it and keep grinding. Stay discipline with our
• 26:09
  bankroll management flat. Betting, playing the system.
• 26:12
  Matches and those system matches if you know by now.
• 26:14
  Go something like this. Against the public, with the
• 26:17
  house, with the pros. Flat bet.
• 26:20
  Avoid parlays and get that COV. If we can do that, we're going
• 26:23
  to be. Successful sports bettors.
• 26:24
  So have a great night everybody. Let's go Otani.
• 26:28
  I'm really hoping for this plus 155 to cash tonight and I'll be
• 26:31
  right back at it tomorrow. Reminder, I'll see you tonight
• 26:34
  at 6:00 PM. For the rhythm live stream, but
• 26:35
  we'll. Be back regardless tomorrow I'll
• 26:38
  give you all my final plays for NFL and.
• 26:40
  College. That'll be episode. 396 of the
• 26:43
  all systems. Go sports betting podcast.
• 26:46
  Powered by rhythm. Good luck everybody and have a
• 26:48
  great. Thirsty Thursday.