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-ENG- SpaceX IPO: Quantitative Strategy and Market Volatility · SCENARIO Mr Camp (Podcast Deep Dive)

• 0:00
  Speaker 2: Welcome to Mr. Camp's Scenario, the podcast that aggregates news, videos,
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  Speaker 2: other podcasts and arthouse films with the sole purpose of
• 0:07
  Speaker 2: disseminating and informing. Want to understand what's happening in the world?
• 0:11
  Speaker 2: Watch us, follow us and subscribe. Let's go. So, imagine
• 0:18
  Speaker 2: looking at your investment portfolio
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  Speaker 3: right? Yeah, I'm picturing
• 0:20
  Speaker 2: it. And you see this massive position in a company
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  Speaker 2: with the ticker symbol MU. Assumiamo che dovete avere un
• 0:27
  Speaker 2: pesce pesante in un conglomerato agricoltorio. Perché c'è
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  Speaker 3: il suono delle cattive.
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  Speaker 2: Come mu, mu. Esattamente. Vedete MU e pensate mu, ma
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  Speaker 2: poi scopri che avete uno dei maggiori produttori di semiconduttori
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  Speaker 2: negli Stati Uniti. E' una realizzazione
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  Speaker 3: molto reale. Sì, e oggi, in questo deep dive, stiamo
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  Speaker 3: guardando
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  Speaker 2: perché ignorare la storia di una compagnia, anche un gigante
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  Speaker 2: a livello sci- fi globalmente anticipato come SpaceX, might actually
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  Speaker 3: be the smartest financial move you can make. Which goes
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  Speaker 2: against literally everything the media tells you. It really does.
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  Speaker 2: We have a fascinating source to guide us today, too.
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  Speaker 2: It's a detailed YouTube interview by Alessio Rastani featuring Manuel BL.
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  Speaker 2: He's a quantitative analyst from DowTheory. com.
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  Speaker 3: Right, a true quant.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah. And our mission today is to look past the
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  Speaker 2: whole media frenzy surrounding one of the most anticipated financial
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  Speaker 2: events on the horizon, this potential SpaceX IPO. We want
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  Speaker 2: to uncover how the stock
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  Speaker 3: market actually works behind the scenes. Ok, let's unpack this,
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  Speaker 3: because the natural instinct for so many investors is to
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  Speaker 3: jump on high profile tech IPO.
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  Speaker 2: Oh, absolutely. But before we get too deep, just to clarify,
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  Speaker 2: early on, as stated in the source, this deep dive
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  Speaker 2: is purely for educational purposes.
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  Speaker 3: Right, good point.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, we're talking about market mechanics here. This is by
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  Speaker 2: no means a recommendation to buy or sell any stock
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  Speaker 3: So true. And we need that disclaimer, because it's so
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  Speaker 3: easy for the average investor to get Right, but you're
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  Speaker 3: paying a massive premium. Esattamente. E i dati storici rilevati
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  Speaker 3: nella nostra sede controllano questo approccio
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  Speaker 2: emozionale
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  Speaker 3: completamente. I dati mostrano che le IPOs tecniche tendono a
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  Speaker 3: vivere un tonno di volatilità iniziale. Non
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  Speaker 2: è raramente un risultato semplice. No
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  Speaker 3: non nemmeno. Anche se c'è un breve rallegamento iniziale, la
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  Speaker 3: ricerca mostra che questi stock sono quasi sempre underperformati nei
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  Speaker 3: primi tre a sei mesi. Si spingono frequentemente molto sotto
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  Speaker 3: l'azione di prezzo
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  Speaker 2: iniziale. Che è wilde. Quindi devo chiederti, se il dato
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  Speaker 2: storico è così chiaro su questo dipendo di tre a
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  Speaker 2: sei mesi, perché il mercato continua a andare in strada
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  Speaker 2: per ogni nuovo IPO tecnico? Le persone ignorano solo la
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  Speaker 3: matematica? Ciò che è fascinante qui è il massimo disconnetto
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  Speaker 3: tra l'entusiasmo di investitori di mercato, quella narrativa che hai menzionato,
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  Speaker 3: e la precauzione professionale.
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  Speaker 2: Perché i pro conoscono la matematica.
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  Speaker 3: Esattamente. Loro conoscono i periodi di lock- up. Quando una compagnia
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  Speaker 3: va in pubblico, gli insider, i fondatori, i primi employee...
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  Speaker 3: You know, the venture capitalists. The people who
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  Speaker 2: bought in for pennies. Right, them.
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  Speaker 3: They are legally restricted from selling their shares immediately, usually
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  Speaker 3: for about 90 to 180 days. So the supply of shares is
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  Speaker 3: artificially constrained at first. Oh, yes. The float is tiny,
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  Speaker 3: while retail demand is at an absolute peak because of
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  Speaker 3: the media hype. High demand, low supply, the price spikes.
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  Speaker 3: But
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  Speaker 2: then that 180-day lock- up period expires.
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  Speaker 3: And it damn breaks. Billions of dollars worth of shares
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  Speaker 3: suddenly flood the open market. The insiders cash out and
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  Speaker 3: unless there's a massive surge in new buying demand to
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  Speaker 3: absorb it all. Which there isn't usually because the
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  Speaker 2: hype died down months ago.
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  Speaker 3: Exactly. So mathematically the price just has to drop. Both
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  Speaker 3: speakers in our source plan to wait for a better
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  Speaker 3: opportunity where that risk can be controlled rather than just
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  Speaker 3: jumping in blindly on day one. So essentially
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  Speaker 2: if you buy on day one you're just providing exit
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  Speaker 2: liquidity for the billionaires. You're
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  Speaker 3: catching a falling knife. That's a perfect way to put it. Yeah.
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  Speaker 2: Which transitions us perfectly to how a professional like Manuel
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  Speaker 2: Diel actually makes purchasing decisions. If he isn't swayed by
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  Speaker 2: a cool rocket company, what is he actually looking at
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  Speaker 3: He's looking at pure math
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  Speaker 2: Right. And this is where that anecdote from the source
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  Speaker 2: comes in. Manuel's trading style is a purely quantitative computerized system.
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  Speaker 2: He buys and sells religiously based on what his computer says.
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  Speaker 2: He literally says, vomits out his tickers.
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  Speaker 3: He completely ignores the story behind the company.
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  Speaker 2: Totally ignores it. And the funniest specific detail from the source,
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  Speaker 2: this is that dairy story I mentioned at the start.
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  Speaker 3: Micron technology story,
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  Speaker 2: right? Yeah, he realizes one day that this ticker, MU,
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  Speaker 2: makes up a massive 14% of his portfolio.
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  Speaker 3: Which is a huge concentration risk for a quant.
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  Speaker 2: Right, he knows he has to rebalance it. But he
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  Speaker 2: didn't even know what the company did. He joked that
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  Speaker 2: when he saw MU he genuinely thought it was a
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  Speaker 2: dairy milk company. Like a...
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  Speaker 3: And it was actually Micron Technology.
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  Speaker 2: A global semiconductor giant.
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  Speaker 3: It's so funny. But there's a really deep underlying philosophy here.
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  Speaker 3: It's all about removing human emotion and ego from investing.
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  Speaker 2: Because if he knew it was a crucial AI chip maker,
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  Speaker 2: he might have fallen in love with it
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  Speaker 3: Exactly. He might have bent his own rules and let
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  Speaker 3: it grow to 20%. By thinking it was a dairy farm,
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  Speaker 3: he had zero emotional attachment when it was time to sell.
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  Speaker 3: Manuel has a rule of having 20 to 25 ideas to diversify risk.
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  Speaker 2: The sports team analogy from the source.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, he says a stock portfolio is like a sports team.
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  Speaker 3: If you're playing in the World Cup, you don't care
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  Speaker 3: who scores the goal as long as the team wins.
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  Speaker 3: It's literally moneyball. You just want the guys
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  Speaker 2: who get on base. Here's where it gets really interesting, though.
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  Speaker 2: To the pros, SpaceX isn't a revolutionary space exploration company.
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  Speaker 3: No, it's not.
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  Speaker 2: It's literally just going to be another ticker symbol, just
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  Speaker 2: some letters on a screen that standard deviations will eventually
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  Speaker 2: apply to.
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  Speaker 3: That's exactly right. But, and this is crucial, even if
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  Speaker 3: quantitative traders don't care about the SpaceX story.
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  Speaker 2: Right. Why did the source emphasize that this specific IPO
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  Speaker 2: is so critical to watch if the quants are just
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  Speaker 2: waiting on the sidelines anyway?
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  Speaker 3: Because of the structural mechanics of the market, specifically index funds.
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  Speaker 3: Because SpaceX is so massive, its private valuation is astronomical.
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  Speaker 2: Oh, certo. Quando si fa pubblico, le regole potrebbero
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  Speaker 3: essere incollate immediatamente in indicazioni majori come la S &
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  Speaker 3: P 500 e poi la Q100. Ok, facciamo un po' di dettaglio.
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  Speaker 2: La S & P 500 non è solo un dividendo uguale
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  Speaker 2: di 500 compagnie.
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  Speaker 3: Far from it. It's market cap weighted. The biggest companies
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  Speaker 3: take up the largest slices of
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  Speaker 2: the pie. And the pie
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  Speaker 3: is strictly capped at 100%. It can't magically become 102%. Esattamente.
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  Speaker 3: So here is the massive implication. I gestori di fondi
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  Speaker 3: per i massimi EPF, come la SPY o la QQQ,
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  Speaker 3: sono legalmente forzati a replicare perfettamente l'index.
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  Speaker 2: Non hanno una scelta.
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  Speaker 3: Niente. Saranno forzati a allociare SpaceX nel loro portafoglio. Ma
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  Speaker 3: per farlo, hanno bisogno di liquidità. Hanno bisogno di comprare
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  Speaker 3: milioni di dollari di SpaceX, quindi hanno bisogno di spazio
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  Speaker 2: Ok, pensate a questo. È come un massimo VIP che
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  Speaker 2: sceglie una raffaia di vita completamente piena. La raffaia non
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  Speaker 2: può diventare più grande. Quindi per fare spazio per questo
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  Speaker 2: nuovo gigante, Someone else has to be thrown overboard
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  Speaker 3: That's a great analogy. And the source points out exactly
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  Speaker 3: who gets thrown overboard. These funds will be forced to
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  Speaker 3: sell off shares of existing giants, specifically companies like Nvidia,
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  Speaker 3: just to make room for SpaceX. Wait, really? They
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  Speaker 2: have to sell Nvidia just to buy SpaceX?
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  Speaker 3: Yes, because Nvidia takes up such a huge slice of
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  Speaker 3: the index currently, trimming it is the only way to
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  Speaker 3: free up enough cash, and it's blind, indiscriminate selling. Non
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  Speaker 3: vendono NVIDIA perché aveva un rapporto di vendita male. Vendono
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  Speaker 3: puramente per la liquidità.
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  Speaker 2: Esattamente. Quindi cosa
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  Speaker 3: significa tutto
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  Speaker 2: questo? Manuel
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  Speaker 3: conclude che questa forza di vendita potrebbe mettere un'immensa
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  Speaker 2: pressione in basso sul mercato. Perché stai vendendo sistematicamente i
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  Speaker 2: più forti pilloli
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  Speaker 3: del mercato. Esatto. E lui assessa il mercato come già
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  Speaker 3: in grado di avvenire significativi vittime. È un po' fragile. Quindi,
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  Speaker 2: presentare un evento
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  Speaker 3: di ribalanzamento violento in questo ambiente? Potrebbe essere disastroso. Dice
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  Speaker 3: che non potrebbe trattare un mercato pieno di soldi su
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  Speaker 3: di sé. Ma potrebbe essere l'ultimo cavallo che ha colpito
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  Speaker 3: i cavalli, guadagnando una correzione del mercato più grande. Wow,
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  Speaker 3: un evento catalista
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  Speaker 2: Una pura estrazione di liquido, che sceglie tutto l'index. E
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  Speaker 2: questo
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  Speaker 3: momento di movimento che tratta altri algoritmi per vendere, crea
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  Speaker 3: un loop di risposta
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  Speaker 2: E' strano. Abbiamo iniziato con il hype di un'IPO di
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  Speaker 2: un unico rocchetto, e abbiamo scoperto questa realtà matematica fredda
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  Speaker 2: di un trattamento quantitativo e la plommata scoperta di fondi
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  Speaker 2: di index.
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  Speaker 3: It's all connected
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  Speaker 2: beneath the surface. And this matters to you, the listener,
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  Speaker 2: because even if you never plan to buy a single
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  Speaker 2: share of SpaceX, if you have a standard retirement account,
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  Speaker 2: an IRA or a 401k sitting in a broad index fund,
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  Speaker 3: these hidden market mechanics affect your money directly.
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  Speaker 2: Your fund manager will be forced to sell off the
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  Speaker 2: most profitable companies in your portfolio just because the rigid
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  Speaker 2: rules of the index demand it
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  Speaker 3: Which leaves us with a really provocative thought to end on.
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  Speaker 3: If so much of the modern stock market is driven
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  Speaker 3: by blind index rebalancing and computer algorithms that don't even
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  Speaker 3: know what a company does, like thinking Micron is a
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  Speaker 3: dairy farm. Moo. Right, moo. If that's the reality, what
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  Speaker 3: does that mean for the traditional romantic idea of investing
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  Speaker 3: in a business? Because you actually believe in its mission
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  Speaker 3: to change the world. Oh, wow. Like,
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  Speaker 2: is the human endeavor even relevant anymore or is it
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  Speaker 2: just a closed mathematical loop?
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  Speaker 3: Exactly. Are we investing in visions or are we just
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  Speaker 3: balancing a 100% pie chart?
• 9:43
  Speaker 2: Questo fondamentalmente cambia come devi interpretare le linee finanziarie andando avanti.
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  Speaker 2: Devi guardare passare il fuoco e il spettacolo per trovare
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  Speaker 2: la matematica operando sotto tutto. Grazie per averci seguito e
• 9:55
  Speaker 2: continuate a questionare le narrativi dietro le linee. Ci vediamo
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  Speaker 2: la prossima volta su Deep Dive.