Latest / Elon Musk Thinking / Latest: Elon Musk SPACEX Plans!!!

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Latest: Elon Musk SPACEX Plans!!! · Elon Musk Thinking

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Latest interview of Elon Musk, like, how do you decide
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: what progress the civilization has made?
• 0:09
  Speaker 2: That's the most objective metric that any alien species, say
• 0:16
  Speaker 2: visiting us, would calibrate how much progress.
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: We've made as a civilization.
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  Speaker 2: And one of the most objective ways to do that
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  Speaker 2: is the amount of power that is any given civilization
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  Speaker 2: has been able to harness. And there was a Russian
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  Speaker 2: physicist actually I think by the name of Kadashov, who
• 0:40
  Speaker 2: thought about this, and it's I think it's a good
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  Speaker 2: way to characterize it, which is.
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  Speaker 1: You can have.
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  Speaker 2: You can assess how well a civilization is harnessing the
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  Speaker 2: power available on the planet. That's a type one, and
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  Speaker 2: then type two would be how much of the stars
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  Speaker 2: power are you honessing? And then type three would be
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  Speaker 2: how much of the galaxy's power are you honessing? These
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  Speaker 2: are very objective and measurable numbers. So right now we're
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  Speaker 2: very low on Na Kadashev one scale, and if you say,
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  Speaker 2: like what proportion of our planet's power are we honessing,
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  Speaker 2: it's a very very tiny number. And basically we're harnessing
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  Speaker 2: almost nothing of our stars power. So the sun is
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  Speaker 2: truly an immense thing. It is it's difficult with words
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  Speaker 2: to characterize just how immense the Sun is, but this
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  Speaker 2: gives you sort of a sense of scale.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, it's a big difficulty jump going from level one
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  Speaker 3: to level two.
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  Speaker 1: Very big difficulty jump.
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  Speaker 2: Yes, and level three and we don't even know how
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  Speaker 2: to do level three really well.
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  Speaker 1: Get yeah, yeah, exactly a. I'll figure it out. Yeah.
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  Speaker 2: One way to appreciate the size of the Sun is
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  Speaker 2: to think about how heavy is the Sun compared to
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  Speaker 2: all the rest of the mass in the Solar System.
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  Speaker 2: So the Sun is about ninety nine point eighty six
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  Speaker 2: percent of all mass in the Solar system, it's everything,
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  Speaker 2: and then off the remaining one zero point one four percent,
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  Speaker 2: most of that is Jupiter, one planet, So we're.
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  Speaker 3: A sole lightweight.
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  Speaker 2: Yes, the entire mass of Earth is in the tiny
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  Speaker 2: miss laneous category, where we're like, Earth is a tiny
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  Speaker 2: dust mote compared to the Sun.
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  Speaker 3: Well, but how much energy are we talking like coming
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  Speaker 3: from the Sun, especially compared to what we're using here
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  Speaker 3: on Earth.
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  Speaker 2: It feels like, Yeah, the incident's solar energy on the
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  Speaker 2: cross section of the Earth is roughly a half billionth
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  Speaker 2: of the Sun's power output, and the vast majority of
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  Speaker 2: that we cannot because you know, seventy percent of Earth
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  Speaker 2: is water. We should technically our plan should be called
• 3:06
  Speaker 2: water because that is seventy percent water. And I think
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  Speaker 2: an alien civilization visiting us would be like, why are
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  Speaker 2: they're calling it Earth when it is mostly water?
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  Speaker 3: Where the greenland's not green? Of the of the gally
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  Speaker 3: of the solar system.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, a bunch of the exactly even, we're seventy percent water,
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  Speaker 2: and then of the thirty percent best land, a bunch
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  Speaker 2: of it is either Antarctica or you know, Siberia type
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  Speaker 2: of thing, very northern Canada type of thing, very difficult
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  Speaker 2: to not places people typically.
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  Speaker 1: Want to live.
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  Speaker 2: And you're not going to get a lot of solar
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  Speaker 2: power at the polls. So the actual usable area of
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  Speaker 2: land that where you can get solar power is quite small. Anyway,
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  Speaker 2: in order to ascend the Cordship scale, in order to
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  Speaker 2: get to any meaningful percentage of the Sun's energy harnessed,
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  Speaker 2: you have to go to space. If you wanted to
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  Speaker 2: get to say, a millionth of the power output of
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  Speaker 2: the Sun, you would have to increase civilizational energy harnessed
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  Speaker 2: by much more than a million.
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  Speaker 1: So we currently use much less than a trillionth.
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  Speaker 2: Of the power output of the Sun, and a trillion
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  Speaker 2: is a million times a million. So so basically this
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  Speaker 2: we're basically practically nowhere on the sort of the Cottagship
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  Speaker 2: to scale, practically nowhere.
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  Speaker 3: So in CARDISHIV scale we're all still.
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  Speaker 2: Register We're like not, we're not even yeah, we're so
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  Speaker 2: we're not We're not registering not even a microsol.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah no.
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  Speaker 2: And so to actually what microsol would be an epic,
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  Speaker 2: epic achievement relative.
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  Speaker 3: To where we are right now, something to aspire to.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, that's o gold.
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  Speaker 2: And like this is I think both simultaneously an incredibly
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  Speaker 2: adventurous goal relatives where we are and yet not particularly
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  Speaker 2: adventurous as a percentage of the Sun's energy to.
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  Speaker 1: Try to achieve.
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  Speaker 2: Powerhunness being one million of what the Sun outputs.
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  Speaker 1: And so to actually start a microstal that actually.
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  Speaker 3: Start getting there though we're not just gonna throw a
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  Speaker 3: solar raised in space try to soak up a bunch
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  Speaker 3: of the sun. Like there has to be a need,
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  Speaker 3: like you want to go up there and do something meaningful,
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  Speaker 3: And obviously until this point in human history, like there
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  Speaker 3: hasn't really been a need. What has changed to make
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  Speaker 3: us think that like, maybe now's the time to start
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  Speaker 3: trying to notch a percentage point or two, I mean.
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  Speaker 2: Getting too a percent of the Sun's energy, maybe not
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  Speaker 2: a percentity Let's go like, well, well the desci will
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  Speaker 2: point back. So you're extremely thick ass civilization if you
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  Speaker 2: get one percent of the Sun's energy. And I'm like, wow,
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  Speaker 2: that civilizations be vastly more powerful in us, to say
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  Speaker 2: the least. So in order to start to make some
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  Speaker 2: progress on the Cottashef scale, we need to launch satellites
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  Speaker 2: to to to orbit Earth and capture solar power. And
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  Speaker 2: that avoids the need to build massive power plants on
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  Speaker 2: Earth and deal with cooling because cooling is actually much
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  Speaker 2: easier in space than it is on Earth. You can
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  Speaker 2: just radiate to the vacuum. And and so what what
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  Speaker 2: we're proposing here and what we intend to do, is
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  Speaker 2: to try to claim the Cottagechef scale to be kind
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  Speaker 2: of like a respectable civilization. So when the aliens, hopefully
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  Speaker 2: there are aliens out there, and they maybe finally decide
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  Speaker 2: to talk to us, you know where we have where
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  Speaker 2: where we have some respectable amount of the Sun's energy
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  Speaker 2: being used, that's not like totally pathetic, which is the
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  Speaker 2: current situation.
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  Speaker 3: And so before we start sending data centers, sending all
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  Speaker 3: of this to space, there are some limiting factors that
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  Speaker 3: we got to get there that would traditionally make it
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  Speaker 3: so like this is almost as possible.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, what does it take to scale? Yeah? So things
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  Speaker 2: it takes to scale are you need to have a
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  Speaker 2: large mask to orbit capability, which is what Starship will
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  Speaker 2: give us.
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  Speaker 1: That large mask. So you know, you.
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  Speaker 2: Ultimately need to send millions of tons to orbit and beyond,
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  Speaker 2: and you need the power associated with that. So if
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  Speaker 2: you want to put one hundred big wettes or ultimately
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  Speaker 2: a tarwowat into space from Earth, you need you will
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  Speaker 2: at some point need a tarowatt of solar and then
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  Speaker 2: you're going to need a tirawot of AI chips. So
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  Speaker 2: the three things you need a mask to orbit, a
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  Speaker 2: lot of solar power and radiators of course, and a
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  Speaker 2: lot of chips.
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  Speaker 3: All right, well let's start ticking down the list. So
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  Speaker 3: mass orbit that's where Starship comes in. We just had
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  Speaker 3: first flight V three. It's awesome. I know you were there.
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  Speaker 3: It was crazy to see that rocket launch and like,
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  Speaker 3: long time coming. What's kind of what Starship's kind of
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  Speaker 3: purpose of being, What is it going to be doing?
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, so Starship is going to it's going to revolutionize space. Really,
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  Speaker 2: it's the first rocket design that is capable of full
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  Speaker 2: and rapid reusability. Now, reusability is the fundamental breakthrough that
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  Speaker 2: is necessary to make life multiplanetary as well as to
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  Speaker 2: ascend the Cottership scale. You simply cannot ascend the Cottership
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  Speaker 2: scale unless you have a reusable spacecraft, and you cannot
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  Speaker 2: extend life to the Moon, to Mars and rest the
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  Speaker 2: Solar System without a reusable rocket.
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  Speaker 1: The cost is simply prohibitive.
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  Speaker 2: You can't You can't make enough rockets unless you fly,
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  Speaker 2: unless you can refly them. Just like any other mode
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  Speaker 2: of transport. You can imagine that if we had to
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  Speaker 2: throw away airplanes every time we flew, flying would be
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  Speaker 2: far too expensive and basically no one would be flying airplanes.
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  Speaker 3: You're doing a whole lot more driving.
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  Speaker 2: Yes, every mode of transport is reusable with that which
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  Speaker 2: is simply not viable as a transport system. So cars, planes, boats, forces, bicycles.
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  Speaker 1: Are all obviously reusable.
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  Speaker 2: With rockets, it's much harder to make a rocket reusable
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  Speaker 2: because Earth has a deep gravity well and a thick atmosphere,
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  Speaker 2: and these make it just barely possible to achieve reusability
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  Speaker 2: with a rocket. And there have been many prior attempts
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  Speaker 2: to create a fully reusable rocket, and they most of
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  Speaker 2: those attempts have been abandoned part way through because they
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  Speaker 2: didn't think they could succeed. In order to achieve full reusability,
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  Speaker 2: everything has got to be perfect, the engines, the structure,
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  Speaker 2: the avionics, the choice of propellant. You've got to you've
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  Speaker 2: got to go to extreme measures for mass optimization, which
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  Speaker 2: is why we have the tower catch the rocket instead
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  Speaker 2: of putting on landing.
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  Speaker 1: Legs which are heavy. The rocket can s if we
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  Speaker 1: be caught by the tower.
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  Speaker 2: And we haven't achieved full reusability yet, but we do
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  Speaker 2: expect to achieve that hopefully later this year with Starship.
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  Speaker 1: And then you've got to achieve full reusability. They've also
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  Speaker 1: if you got to go step.
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  Speaker 2: Beyond that, which is make it rapidly reuseable, such that
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  Speaker 2: the rocket lands, gets caught by the tower, is put
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  Speaker 2: back on the launch stand and can be flown again
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  Speaker 2: without any refurbishment or laborious.
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  Speaker 1: Inspection like an aircraft. Yeah, this is incredibly difficult.
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  Speaker 2: This is the first time that there's ever been a
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  Speaker 2: rocket where that is possible.
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  Speaker 1: That's what makes starships so profound.
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  Speaker 2: It also happen is to be the largest flying object
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  Speaker 2: ever made, the heaviest playing object ever made, the most
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  Speaker 2: powerful moving object of any kind. Starship V three is
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  Speaker 2: more than double the thrust of it the Saturn five
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  Speaker 2: Moon rocket. By version four will be pretty much three
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  Speaker 2: times the thrust of a Saturn five Moon rocket, and
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  Speaker 2: we expect this, We expect Starship to be flying more
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  Speaker 2: than once per hour down the road.
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  Speaker 3: One of the fun facts from flight twelve that was
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  Speaker 3: actually the heaviest payload SpaceX has ever flown, and that's
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  Speaker 3: still just a fraction of what V three can do.
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  Speaker 3: So yes, I mean once we're flying massive amounts really rapidly.
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  Speaker 3: I mean we already fly the majority of payload to
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  Speaker 3: space with Falcon Do people even really understand what mass
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  Speaker 3: or of it becomes one starship is flying.
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  Speaker 2: It's many orders ninety two greater than and what is
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  Speaker 2: the case today. So even with Falcon nine, Falcon Heavy,
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  Speaker 2: SpaceX levers almost ninety percent of all Earth mass to orbit.
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  Speaker 2: I think between eighty five ninety percent right now, and
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  Speaker 2: then most of the remaining mass I think is launched
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  Speaker 2: by China, and then the rest of the world, including
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  Speaker 2: the rest of the US, is the remaining I don't know,
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  Speaker 2: five to seven percent. Now with with Starship, we'll be
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  Speaker 2: aiming to go from somewhere around twenty five hundred tons
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  Speaker 2: a year to orbit to millions of tons per year
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  Speaker 2: to orbit, and to do so at a pretty short
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  Speaker 2: period of time. So we think probably we can get
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  Speaker 2: to a million tons to RBOT per year in about
• 12:51
  Speaker 2: three years thereabouts Starship.
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  Speaker 3: Starship is going to take care of the master or
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  Speaker 3: a bit limiting factor, yes, and then power generation, So
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  Speaker 3: first and A and maybe you can help people probably
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  Speaker 3: struggle to visualize a little bit when you say, like
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  Speaker 3: data center in space, Like we're not going to slap
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  Speaker 3: engines on a building and fly it up there, Like
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  Speaker 3: these actually look like pretty different and so kind of
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  Speaker 3: walk through how you take something that's in a giant
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  Speaker 3: building on the ground and turn it into something that's
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  Speaker 3: functional in space.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think it's it's pretty interesting.
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  Speaker 4: A lot of people don't actually know what the inside
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  Speaker 4: of a data center.
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  Speaker 2: Even looks like, right, and it's a mythical place where
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  Speaker 2: the Internet's in the cloud.
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  Speaker 4: Or yeah, some people in vision wire, some people in
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  Speaker 4: vision boxes. But like, effectually it comes down to a
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  Speaker 4: set number of chips and the things that we need
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  Speaker 4: to launch into space are actually quite small when we
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  Speaker 4: look at it. The more challenging part is figuring out
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  Speaker 4: how to get how do you get the power for it?
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  Speaker 4: And that's where a lot of what we've worked on
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  Speaker 4: for existing like star wink technology, the solar rays are
• 14:00
  Speaker 4: what we want to utilize that expertise to to be
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  Speaker 4: able to build a satellite that can actually launch the
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  Speaker 4: critical components of the data center into space itself. We
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  Speaker 4: like to look at this and say, like what is
• 14:14
  Speaker 4: what is the actual engineering problem here? And and it's
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  Speaker 4: it's really a combination of delivering power and then taking
• 14:20
  Speaker 4: the waste heat and energy away and sending it into
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  Speaker 4: the vacuum of space. As you mentioned, Yeah, uh, Now,
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  Speaker 4: the the AI satellite is actually much simpler than a
• 14:32
  Speaker 4: starling satellite. It's a stalling satellite, has has gigantic phase
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  Speaker 4: ray antennas. Uh, it's got uh you know, parabolic antennas.
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  Speaker 4: It's got uh, you know a lot of laser links.
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  Speaker 4: It's a it's it's much more complicated than an AI satellite,
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  Speaker 4: and AI satellite is essentially a lot of solar cells,
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  Speaker 4: a radiator, and you still need some laser links, but
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  Speaker 4: you don't have of the super complex antennas.
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: That you have on a stalling satellite.
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  Speaker 2: So I mean, given the two, the easier one to
• 15:08
  Speaker 2: design for is the the AI satellite.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, it's just a little bit bigger. It's bigger.
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  Speaker 3: Just makes stuff bigger.
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
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  Speaker 3: I was like, so we've got this is our AI
• 15:19
  Speaker 3: one if you guys want to.
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: Walk us through. Yeah.
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  Speaker 4: So the first thing that we're really looking at here
• 15:24
  Speaker 4: is like, first, you've got to make something compelling, right,
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  Speaker 4: And we thought that the right place to start is
• 15:31
  Speaker 4: around one hundred and fifty.
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  Speaker 1: Kilowatt like peak power level.
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  Speaker 4: But as we look at the workloads with our experience
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  Speaker 4: with XAI, we get to actually see that we can
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  Speaker 4: also support about one hundred and twenty kilowats of average compute.
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  Speaker 1: There's a difference. What we're showing here is kind of
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: a draft version of the.
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  Speaker 2: Version one of the of the SpaceX AI satellite AI one,
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  Speaker 2: I guess you could call it, and seems like a
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  Speaker 2: reasonable place to start is undred and fifty kilowatts peak
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  Speaker 2: power one hundred and twenty kilowatt sustained power. And to
• 16:05
  Speaker 2: give you a sense of what does that actually look
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  Speaker 2: like in terms of the size of the.
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  Speaker 1: Radiator size of the solar panels, the assumptions.
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  Speaker 2: Here are two hundred and fifty what's per square meter
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  Speaker 2: for the solar array and about fourteen hundred what's per
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  Speaker 2: square meter for the radiators. So the radiators, these are
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  Speaker 2: double side radiators, are radiating both sides, they're oriented knife
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  Speaker 2: edge to the Sun, and it's fourteen hundred washpos square
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  Speaker 2: meter is a very achievable goal. Over time, we think
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  Speaker 2: we can probably do above chatter fifty washed post square
• 16:38
  Speaker 2: meter and above fourteen hundred what's per square meter for
• 16:41
  Speaker 2: the solar panels radiators, respectively.
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  Speaker 1: But this gives you like a this is pretty much
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  Speaker 1: what the satellite's going to look like. Yeah, it's a lot.
• 16:51
  Speaker 2: Of solar panels, radiator, and then everything else is pretty small.
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: Like embarrassy.
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  Speaker 4: And these are like evolutions of things that we have
• 16:58
  Speaker 4: actually already launched in our Starlink constellation to date. Yeah,
• 17:03
  Speaker 4: that's that's really I think the cool part to me
• 17:06
  Speaker 4: is that we're looking at solar technology that we already
• 17:09
  Speaker 4: are going to use on the V three Starlink vehicle.
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  Speaker 4: So I'm like really excited to then just take those
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  Speaker 4: and make it bigger.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah. Part of what we want to convey here is
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: that there's not some.
• 17:24
  Speaker 2: Magic that's necessary that doesn't exist for the AI satellites.
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  Speaker 2: As I had said, this is a lot of this
• 17:31
  Speaker 2: is technology we've already made for the Starlink B three satellites.
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  Speaker 2: So it's basically, don't think this is a super hard
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  Speaker 2: problem compared to things we already do.
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  Speaker 1: They would also be probably something on the.
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  Speaker 2: Order of a twer bit of connectivity of laser link connectivity.
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  Speaker 1: From the on the satellite.
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  Speaker 2: One hundred and fifty killawak peak power level is roughly
• 17:56
  Speaker 2: matches Le's ay.
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: An Nvidio GV three hundred rack would do, so a.
• 18:01
  Speaker 2: GB three hundred with seventy two GPUs it's peak power
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  Speaker 2: I think is around one hundred and forty kilowatts, but
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  Speaker 2: it's rarely it's it's almost impossible to get it to
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  Speaker 2: be at that pep power. A more reasonable operating envelope
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  Speaker 2: would be around one hundred and twenty twenty kilos average power,
• 18:19
  Speaker 2: but it can peak up to one hundred and fifty.
• 18:21
  Speaker 2: So that's it's basically thinking about as a rack of
• 18:25
  Speaker 2: compute in space. And then you can connect these these
• 18:30
  Speaker 2: racks of compute to either each other by the laser
• 18:34
  Speaker 2: links or directly to the stalling constellations. So you can
• 18:38
  Speaker 2: close the link with the stalling constellation, and then Stalling
• 18:42
  Speaker 2: can then send that data to the ground using the
• 18:47
  Speaker 2: existing KA and KU antennas on the on the vehicle,
• 18:52
  Speaker 2: it also has laser links to the ground as well, so.
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: And this would not be out of particularly highlight and
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: see it.
• 19:01
  Speaker 2: You know, we're talking about you know, maybe being around
• 19:05
  Speaker 2: six to eight hundred kilometers above the Earth, and light
• 19:11
  Speaker 2: travels three hundred kilometers per millisecond, so that's it's about, you.
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: Know, three milliseconds away. It's not not very far.
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  Speaker 3: Won't worry about that too much though somethings.
• 19:23
  Speaker 2: I think it's gonna be some like high late and
• 19:25
  Speaker 2: sy them like, yeah, no, speed of light.
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: Moves pretty fast, moves pretty fast. It's all one. Yeah.
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  Speaker 4: I think The cool thing also is the the radiators
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  Speaker 4: themselves are about the same size as the existing solar
• 19:38
  Speaker 4: race for a V three vehicle.
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: Kind of kind of in that that realm where we're
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: flying today.
• 19:43
  Speaker 3: Yeah, So I mean they got they got about a
• 19:45
  Speaker 3: seventy meter wingspan. So these are fairly large, and we're
• 19:49
  Speaker 3: talking about building a lot of them and putting them
• 19:52
  Speaker 3: up there. But you like to say like spaces in
• 19:56
  Speaker 3: the name, Like there's there's a lot of space up there.
• 19:58
  Speaker 3: And so even when you're talking thousands or even you know,
• 20:03
  Speaker 3: up to a million satellites, you got plenty of room
• 20:05
  Speaker 3: to move around up there.
• 20:06
  Speaker 2: Yeah, space is really big, So it's like it's not
• 20:10
  Speaker 2: like space is going to get crowded.
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: Space is enormous.
• 20:14
  Speaker 2: Like if you're zoom in close to the satellite, looks big,
• 20:17
  Speaker 2: but if you actually look at it relatively relative to
• 20:20
  Speaker 2: the Earth, the satellites are so tiny you can you
• 20:22
  Speaker 2: can't even see them.
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: So they're very very tiny compared to Earth.
• 20:29
  Speaker 3: And I mean, we have ten about ten thousand starlinks
• 20:33
  Speaker 3: in orbit right now. We've got a pretty good idea
• 20:36
  Speaker 3: of how to operate just really large constellations and do
• 20:40
  Speaker 3: it safely.
• 20:40
  Speaker 4: Now right we are the only operator that has any
• 20:43
  Speaker 4: experience of that scale. It's it's a great thing that
• 20:48
  Speaker 4: you know we have this background, so we know how
• 20:49
  Speaker 4: tightly we can pack the satellites and inside them safely.
• 20:52
  Speaker 4: That's that's a number one goal when we look at
• 20:55
  Speaker 4: the constellation.
• 20:56
  Speaker 3: We're going to be building a lot of satellites, and
• 20:59
  Speaker 3: we're gonna be building here in Bastra, right, so we've
• 21:03
  Speaker 3: we've got this, which so we're in the building kind
• 21:06
  Speaker 3: of in the middle, which we're sitting in that building
• 21:09
  Speaker 3: right now. This is my first time here. The building
• 21:11
  Speaker 3: is massive, Like you come around the corner, you see
• 21:14
  Speaker 3: it through the trees and you're like, oh wow, but
• 21:17
  Speaker 3: we're about to kind of put this building to shame,
• 21:19
  Speaker 3: aren't we.
• 21:21
  Speaker 2: Yes, we're gonna. In fact, we're already have the solar
• 21:25
  Speaker 2: manufacturing facility. It's under construction already, and and then we
• 21:32
  Speaker 2: will be building out the a SAT production building soon.
• 21:37
  Speaker 2: And yeah, so we expect to have the the ASAT production,
• 21:42
  Speaker 2: the solo production, and all of that operating at some
• 21:48
  Speaker 2: reasonable volume by the end of next year.
• 21:51
  Speaker 3: So if anybody wants to work on AI satellite, this
• 21:54
  Speaker 3: is kind of going to become the hub of that.
• 21:56
  Speaker 3: We're also so I mean, like right behind us, the
• 21:58
  Speaker 3: machines are humming and we're still making all of our
• 22:01
  Speaker 3: user terminals for starlink here, that's not going anywhere. In fact,
• 22:06
  Speaker 3: we're turning on new production lines for new units right Yes.
• 22:10
  Speaker 2: In fact, these are the new stalling terminals, which we
• 22:14
  Speaker 2: made in much high volume than the current terminals, and
• 22:19
  Speaker 2: ultimately we think there's probably going to be a few one.
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: Hundred million stalling terminals out there.
• 22:24
  Speaker 2: And then the stalling direct to sell constellation will connect
• 22:29
  Speaker 2: directed to people's cell phones and enable high vanterwith communication
• 22:33
  Speaker 2: directly from your phone to space.
• 22:35
  Speaker 3: All right, we're two limiting factors down. We've got master orbit,
• 22:40
  Speaker 3: got putting solar, and a few third ones chips.
• 22:44
  Speaker 2: Yes, so at least in the beginning, we can obviously
• 22:49
  Speaker 2: launch the chips that are already being made. So our
• 22:53
  Speaker 2: current reference design is for in Vidio Reuben chips or
• 22:59
  Speaker 2: could be either GB three hundred or or Ruben schiffs,
• 23:04
  Speaker 2: and we'll also have a reference design for TPUs and
• 23:09
  Speaker 2: essentially you can put up put any any existing shifts
• 23:12
  Speaker 2: into into orbit. But the current industry seems to be
• 23:21
  Speaker 2: it seems like it's gonna I don't get to maybe
• 23:24
  Speaker 2: around one hundred.
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: Gigawatts a year of AI computed but.
• 23:31
  Speaker 2: That doesn't answer the question of well, how do you
• 23:32
  Speaker 2: get to a tarrawatt.
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: That's why you need the terrafab always looking a step bigger. Yeah, yeah, in.
• 23:40
  Speaker 2: Order to get to the next order of magnitude, you
• 23:44
  Speaker 2: need a gigantic shift factory to give you a sense
• 23:47
  Speaker 2: of scale here, we expect that the terrafab is going
• 23:51
  Speaker 2: to be around one hundred million square feet, which is
• 23:57
  Speaker 2: ten times the size of the a Tela gig factory Texas.
• 24:02
  Speaker 3: And what aside from just you know, I'm going to
• 24:06
  Speaker 3: need starship point to point to get from one end
• 24:08
  Speaker 3: to the other. Aside from just the size, what's going
• 24:11
  Speaker 3: to make this unique different from any other chip building
• 24:15
  Speaker 3: operation on the planet.
• 24:16
  Speaker 2: Well, I think over time there's going to be a
• 24:18
  Speaker 2: lot of technology evolution with the Terrorfab, but fundamentally it's
• 24:22
  Speaker 2: about scale. So even if there.
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: Were no.
• 24:26
  Speaker 2: Fundamental technology breakthroughs, yes, and you simply you could simply
• 24:31
  Speaker 2: scale the existing chip making technology with a lot of difficulty.
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: To a terror watt of chip out per year.
• 24:41
  Speaker 2: That's if you look at it just from the logic
• 24:44
  Speaker 2: die standpoint, that's that's equivalent. That's like having a billion
• 24:49
  Speaker 2: chips per year with a kilowatt per radical, So so
• 24:53
  Speaker 2: a billion full radical equivalent chips each doing a kilowatt,
• 24:58
  Speaker 2: and then you're going to need a lot of memory
• 25:00
  Speaker 2: to go with that.
• 25:01
  Speaker 3: A lot of people today even saying orbital data centers
• 25:04
  Speaker 3: were like a decade away.
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think we.
• 25:07
  Speaker 2: Want to try to give people a sense of the
• 25:11
  Speaker 2: timeframe we at least the timeframe we're aiming for. I mean,
• 25:15
  Speaker 2: you know, people should take this with a grain of
• 25:17
  Speaker 2: sult to undergrade, because this is this is just our
• 25:20
  Speaker 2: best guess. So this is not a this is not
• 25:22
  Speaker 2: a promisable we'll do. This is what we what we
• 25:25
  Speaker 2: are going to try to do and think we probably
• 25:28
  Speaker 2: can do, which is to get to roughly an annualized
• 25:33
  Speaker 2: rate of a gigawat per year by the end of
• 25:35
  Speaker 2: next year in terms of space AI compute, and then
• 25:40
  Speaker 2: aspirationally scale that by an order of magnitude per year,
• 25:45
  Speaker 2: so in two and a half years, hitting an annualized
• 25:47
  Speaker 2: rate of ten giga watts a year to space and
• 25:50
  Speaker 2: two and a half years, maybe one hundred gigawatts. And
• 25:53
  Speaker 2: then depending upon or progress there is in chip making
• 25:58
  Speaker 2: in the rest of the world.
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: And with the terriff A going beyond that to scale
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: to a terror work.
• 26:04
  Speaker 2: Per year, which is a thousand gable watts, which is
• 26:07
  Speaker 2: that's wic the current electricity consumption of the United States.
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: I think there will be appetite for that. But we'll
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: see there's a lot of satellites.
• 26:16
  Speaker 2: I don't know what it's going to think about, but uh,
• 26:19
  Speaker 2: maybe do a lot of simulations or something.
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 26:22
  Speaker 3: So after we've you know, working through all the limiting factors,
• 26:27
  Speaker 3: we've kind of topped out what we can do on Earth,
• 26:30
  Speaker 3: what is the next step?
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: Two?
• 26:33
  Speaker 3: Again try and actually notch maybe some percentage points towards
• 26:37
  Speaker 3: becoming Kardashev level two?
• 26:40
  Speaker 2: Why stop there? Why I think small here? Because a
• 26:44
  Speaker 2: terror what actually is that's not things small? So there
• 26:47
  Speaker 2: is in order to get to another three ors nine
• 26:52
  Speaker 2: two two thousand x from a terror work per year.
• 26:56
  Speaker 2: The only way that we can really see that you
• 26:59
  Speaker 2: can achieved that is on the Moon with a mass
• 27:03
  Speaker 2: driver essentially where you do local production of photobole takes
• 27:08
  Speaker 2: and so and radiators on the moon. Maybe you bring
• 27:12
  Speaker 2: the chips from Earth, or you could conceivably make the
• 27:16
  Speaker 2: chips on the moon, and but you need most of
• 27:20
  Speaker 2: the mass to be made on the Moon, so you
• 27:23
  Speaker 2: don't have to transport it to the Moon from Earth.
• 27:25
  Speaker 2: And and then because the Moon has no atmosphere and
• 27:29
  Speaker 2: only one sixth Earth's gravity, you can get you can
• 27:32
  Speaker 2: accelerate the AI satellites into deep space without a rocket,
• 27:37
  Speaker 2: so you can basically shoot them into space using an
• 27:41
  Speaker 2: electromagnetic gun like a like a rail gun type. I
• 27:44
  Speaker 2: mean just it's basically linear electric motor as the way
• 27:48
  Speaker 2: to think about it.
• 27:49
  Speaker 3: So I think where you can show people
• 27:58
  Speaker 2: Thanks for listening, See you in the next episode.