Latest / Trend Watch / Episode 41: Trump & Harris Make Their Final Pitch, North Korean Troops Head to Russia, and Trudeau Comes Under Fire

Transcript

Episode 41: Trump & Harris Make Their Final Pitch, North Korean Troops Head to Russia, and Trudeau Comes Under Fire · Trend Watch

• 0:04
  SPEAKER_00: Ready to take a deeper look at where history, politics, and economics all intersect?
• 0:10
  SPEAKER_00: Well, then you've come to the right place.
• 0:13
  SPEAKER_00: Each week,
• 0:14
  SPEAKER_00: here's where we pull back the headlines and focus on the big trends,
• 0:18
  SPEAKER_00: the stuff that actually shapes our future.
• 0:21
  SPEAKER_00: Through the noise, we focus on the signal.
• 0:24
  SPEAKER_00: I'm your host, Neil Howe, and this is TrendWatch.
• 0:30
  SPEAKER_00: Today is October 24th, 2024, and this is Trend Watch.
• 0:35
  SPEAKER_00: Welcome back, everybody.
• 0:37
  SPEAKER_00: As per usual, I have on my fellow analyst, Christian Ford.
• 0:41
  SPEAKER_00: So, Christian, how was your week?
• 0:44
  SPEAKER_01: Well, Neil, I have no complaints, you know.
• 0:46
  SPEAKER_01: I haven't been that busy.
• 0:47
  SPEAKER_01: I got a new cat.
• 0:49
  SPEAKER_01: One of my good friends is getting married this weekend,
• 0:51
  SPEAKER_01: so I've had to write a speech for that and been practicing,
• 0:54
  SPEAKER_01: but...
• 0:55
  SPEAKER_01: Other than that, it's been pretty calm.
• 0:58
  SPEAKER_00: So speeches for friends on weddings, but for yourself, you get a cut.
• 1:04
  SPEAKER_00: I won't comment on where that's going.
• 1:08
  SPEAKER_00: But I will remind you that baby courages for dogs are hugely outselling baby
• 1:17
  SPEAKER_00: courages for humans in South Korea.
• 1:19
  SPEAKER_00: You know that.
• 1:21
  SPEAKER_01: Yes, and I'm sure J.D.
• 1:22
  SPEAKER_01: Vance is looking down on me and my cats.
• 1:25
  SPEAKER_00: Well, he hasn't gotten to guys yet, but I think that's the next thing he's going to move to.
• 1:33
  SPEAKER_00: As always,
• 1:34
  SPEAKER_00: let me remind you,
• 1:35
  SPEAKER_00: if you like this podcast,
• 1:36
  SPEAKER_00: please go ahead and share it with your friends and family and repost it on social media.
• 1:42
  SPEAKER_00: From now on, only some of our episodes will remain free.
• 1:46
  SPEAKER_00: Christian, maybe we should take a moment to clarify to listeners what this podcast is all about.
• 1:53
  SPEAKER_00: Obviously, we put out lots of written content from time to time.
• 1:58
  SPEAKER_00: The last week and a half or so, we haven't had much content, but it ebbs and flows.
• 2:04
  SPEAKER_00: I've actually been traveling a lot.
• 2:07
  SPEAKER_00: but I will be back in town probably at the beginning of December.
• 2:12
  SPEAKER_00: So we'll see how that goes.
• 2:15
  SPEAKER_00: But maybe you can say something about what we've recently done.
• 2:18
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, we've been doing a lot of election coverage.
• 2:21
  SPEAKER_01: We've been doing videos on how we see the race going.
• 2:25
  SPEAKER_01: We've also been doing a lot of pieces on opinion polls.
• 2:27
  SPEAKER_01: And, you know, I know this is exciting time for people as we get to these final days.
• 2:32
  SPEAKER_01: So if you're interested in what we have to say,
• 2:34
  SPEAKER_01: I would recommend upgrading to one of our paid subscriptions.
• 2:37
  SPEAKER_01: I think we'll have a new video coming out in a week or so here, Neil.
• 2:40
  SPEAKER_00: Yes, I think I have.
• 2:42
  SPEAKER_00: Unfortunately, I have to go down a travel again.
• 2:44
  SPEAKER_00: I have to go to Tucson.
• 2:46
  SPEAKER_00: I have to go to Miami.
• 2:48
  SPEAKER_00: However, I will be in town for Halloween.
• 2:51
  SPEAKER_00: And I think that would just be a perfect moment to do an election forecast.
• 2:56
  SPEAKER_00: What do you think?
• 2:57
  SPEAKER_00: What kind of Frankenstein monsters will we see?
• 3:03
  SPEAKER_00: Well, that's great.
• 3:04
  SPEAKER_00: Let's get into today's podcast.
• 3:06
  SPEAKER_00: As always, we have lots to talk about.
• 3:09
  SPEAKER_00: We've got market news, and then we'll be covering stories from around the world.
• 3:14
  SPEAKER_00: Here's what we've got today on the domestic side.
• 3:19
  SPEAKER_00: With the election 12 days away,
• 3:22
  SPEAKER_00: polls show the two major candidates,
• 3:24
  SPEAKER_00: Kamala Harris and Donald Trump,
• 3:26
  SPEAKER_00: neck and neck in most of the battleground states.
• 3:29
  SPEAKER_00: We'll certainly talk more about that.
• 3:32
  SPEAKER_00: Elon Musk has turned heads with his $1 million per day lottery to boost voting
• 3:39
  SPEAKER_00: registration in swing states.
• 3:41
  SPEAKER_00: Talking about how people are responding to that.
• 3:46
  SPEAKER_00: The Nebraska Senate race has become unexpectedly competitive with the entry of Dan Osborne,
• 3:52
  SPEAKER_00: a populist independent as a candidate.
• 3:56
  SPEAKER_00: And around the world, we really should cover the Mideast.
• 4:02
  SPEAKER_00: Israel turns up the heat on its enemies,
• 4:05
  SPEAKER_00: finally killing head of Hamas,
• 4:08
  SPEAKER_00: Yahya Sinwar,
• 4:09
  SPEAKER_00: a week ago and announcing the death of Hezbollah's second-in-command,
• 4:14
  SPEAKER_00: Yashem Sufidin,
• 4:16
  SPEAKER_00: yesterday.
• 4:18
  SPEAKER_00: Certainly a lot of other news coming out of that situation.
• 4:21
  SPEAKER_00: There's probably a lot to happen over the next week there.
• 4:26
  SPEAKER_00: According to several Western intelligence agencies,
• 4:28
  SPEAKER_00: North Korea is sending thousands of soldiers to fight for Russia in the Ukraine war.
• 4:35
  SPEAKER_00: At the 2024 summit of the BRICS nations, hosted in Russia, Vladimir Putin
• 4:42
  SPEAKER_00: rallied all nine aligned nations to resist the efforts of Western nations to impose
• 4:48
  SPEAKER_00: their hegemony on the world.
• 4:53
  SPEAKER_00: This was a little bit more edge to it even than the one last year in South Africa,
• 4:58
  SPEAKER_00: which,
• 4:58
  SPEAKER_00: of course,
• 4:59
  SPEAKER_00: Putin could not attend.
• 5:03
  SPEAKER_00: China is demanding that public sector employees,
• 5:07
  SPEAKER_00: among many others,
• 5:08
  SPEAKER_00: including millions of teachers and professors,
• 5:11
  SPEAKER_00: hand their passports over to the government for safekeeping so that a rising share
• 5:17
  SPEAKER_00: of all travelers abroad must get permission first.
• 5:21
  SPEAKER_00: This is an ominous move, which...
• 5:25
  SPEAKER_00: Well, I don't know.
• 5:26
  SPEAKER_00: It takes me back to the battle days of the USSR.
• 5:30
  SPEAKER_00: And then finally, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is facing a rebellion within his own party.
• 5:37
  SPEAKER_00: At a recent retreat,
• 5:38
  SPEAKER_00: over 20 members of Trudeau's Liberal Party called on him to resign in order to
• 5:44
  SPEAKER_00: avoid a severe defeat in the next election.
• 5:47
  SPEAKER_00: And with that, that's where we're going.
• 5:49
  SPEAKER_00: And with that, Christian, let's look at the markets and get into it.
• 5:54
  SPEAKER_01: All right, Neil.
• 5:55
  SPEAKER_01: Today, the S&P 500 closed up 0.21%, but over the last five trading days is down 0.54%.
• 6:03
  SPEAKER_01: Global Dow not looking as good.
• 6:05
  SPEAKER_01: It did close up today 0.08%, but over the last five market days is down 1.28%.
• 6:12
  SPEAKER_01: As for the VIX, that closed at 19.08%.
• 6:15
  SPEAKER_01: A little bit down from what we saw earlier in the week, but still relatively high.
• 6:20
  SPEAKER_01: And as for the 10-year Treasury, that is at 4.213%, up 11.7 basis points over the last five days.
• 6:29
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah,
• 6:29
  SPEAKER_00: that's,
• 6:31
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 6:31
  SPEAKER_00: for the 10-year,
• 6:32
  SPEAKER_00: both the real rate is going up as people begin to perceive that the economy has a
• 6:38
  SPEAKER_00: lot of energy left in it for a while,
• 6:41
  SPEAKER_00: plus inflation expectations going up,
• 6:44
  SPEAKER_00: which may just be because both of our two
• 6:49
  SPEAKER_00: presidential contenders are doing everything they can to talk about how they're
• 6:54
  SPEAKER_00: going to cut revenues and increase spending.
• 6:59
  SPEAKER_00: And as for the Republican contender,
• 7:04
  SPEAKER_00: probably order the Fed to just cut the Fed funds rate all the way to zero or
• 7:09
  SPEAKER_00: something like that.
• 7:11
  SPEAKER_00: It's kind of interesting.
• 7:15
  SPEAKER_00: What these political programs,
• 7:18
  SPEAKER_00: the unwritten agenda here,
• 7:22
  SPEAKER_00: what it means for inflation,
• 7:23
  SPEAKER_00: I think has not been much discussed.
• 7:26
  SPEAKER_00: To me, it's basically that we're going to do all this stuff and the hidden text is, yuck.
• 7:35
  SPEAKER_00: We're going to get our resources by basically devaluing everyone's nominal claims
• 7:40
  SPEAKER_00: that they think they have.
• 7:41
  SPEAKER_00: You know what I mean?
• 7:43
  SPEAKER_00: Inflation can be a means of procuring real wealth, right?
• 7:48
  SPEAKER_00: You devalue everything who thinks they have wealth.
• 7:51
  SPEAKER_00: And it's with that that you can hand out new goodies.
• 7:54
  SPEAKER_00: So that's how I look at it.
• 7:58
  SPEAKER_00: What else do you have?
• 7:59
  SPEAKER_00: Do you have anything global here?
• 8:02
  SPEAKER_01: Well, we have some indicators.
• 8:04
  SPEAKER_01: I'll do the indicators for the US right here.
• 8:07
  SPEAKER_01: We had the flash S&P PMIs for October.
• 8:11
  SPEAKER_01: Manufacturing rose from 47.3 to 47.8.
• 8:13
  SPEAKER_01: That still marks four consecutive months of contraction.
• 8:18
  SPEAKER_01: And services were practically unchanged at 55.3.
• 8:21
  SPEAKER_01: That's five consecutive months above 55.
• 8:25
  SPEAKER_01: We also had the Michigan consumer sentiment for October.
• 8:29
  SPEAKER_01: That fell from
• 8:30
  SPEAKER_01: 70.1 to 68.9.
• 8:31
  SPEAKER_01: And do you want me to just go into the Eurozone, Neil?
• 8:35
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, so these are probably, this is S&P Global for Flash, right?
• 8:43
  SPEAKER_01: Yes, yeah.
• 8:44
  SPEAKER_01: And then Eurozone, we also have these Flash PMIs for October.
• 8:47
  SPEAKER_01: They look pretty terrible.
• 8:49
  SPEAKER_01: Manufacturing slightly increased from and is now standing at 45.9.
• 8:53
  SPEAKER_01: You know, that still marks a contraction.
• 8:56
  SPEAKER_01: It is a five-month high, but really nothing to brag about.
• 8:59
  SPEAKER_01: And as for services, that slightly decreased to 51.2.
• 9:02
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 9:02
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 9:04
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, well, there's certainly a two-track economy with the United States still in the faster track.
• 9:10
  SPEAKER_00: Let's see how long that continues.
• 9:14
  SPEAKER_00: All right, well, where do we want to begin?
• 9:16
  SPEAKER_01: All right, Neil.
• 9:17
  SPEAKER_01: Well, the election is 12 days away and the polls are neck and neck.
• 9:21
  SPEAKER_01: According to Real Clear Politics,
• 9:23
  SPEAKER_01: if we look at the average,
• 9:24
  SPEAKER_01: Harris has a 0.2 percentage point lead over Trump.
• 9:28
  SPEAKER_01: But Trump is leading in all of the battleground states.
• 9:31
  SPEAKER_01: You know, as this election nears, each candidate is really trying to appeal to their base.
• 9:36
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know if you've noticed this, Neil, but Harris is really trying to focus on
• 9:39
  SPEAKER_01: democracy as an issue.
• 9:41
  SPEAKER_01: And she's really playing up a recent New York Times interview with John Kelly,
• 9:45
  SPEAKER_01: Trump's former chief of staff and Marine general,
• 9:48
  SPEAKER_01: who called Trump a fascist.
• 9:49
  SPEAKER_01: That's really taken the Democrats right now.
• 9:52
  SPEAKER_01: But on the other side,
• 9:53
  SPEAKER_01: Trump is really focusing on the culture war issues and calling Kamala Harris a progressive.
• 9:58
  SPEAKER_01: And he's also, you know, stirring up his crowd with his typical politically incorrect language.
• 10:04
  SPEAKER_01: You know, there was a lot of press over
• 10:06
  SPEAKER_01: He called Harris, quote, a shit vice president.
• 10:09
  SPEAKER_01: It got a lot of applause from the crowd.
• 10:12
  SPEAKER_01: What do you make about these ending strategies?
• 10:15
  SPEAKER_00: Well, I think, look, we've talked about this before, right?
• 10:18
  SPEAKER_00: This is the time to go after the disengaged voter, the person who doesn't normally pay any attention.
• 10:25
  SPEAKER_00: And that's what they're doing.
• 10:27
  SPEAKER_00: Everyone is engaged.
• 10:28
  SPEAKER_00: Everyone who reads the news,
• 10:30
  SPEAKER_00: who actually listens to people talking about politics,
• 10:33
  SPEAKER_00: they've long ago made their decisions.
• 10:35
  SPEAKER_00: In fact, they probably already voted, a lot of them.
• 10:40
  SPEAKER_00: So that's really not the issue here.
• 10:43
  SPEAKER_00: The issue now is to troll the bottom of the ocean with little hooks,
• 10:49
  SPEAKER_00: highly charged emotional hooks to just see what you can pick up.
• 10:54
  SPEAKER_00: And I think it'll get more emotional in the last few days to go.
• 10:58
  SPEAKER_00: Polls and experience teaches that it's these unengaged voters who are the very last
• 11:04
  SPEAKER_00: to make up their minds,
• 11:05
  SPEAKER_00: the very last to decide to come to their polls.
• 11:08
  SPEAKER_00: And I think that's going to be a particularly important positive source of votes for Trump.
• 11:14
  SPEAKER_00: He knows it.
• 11:15
  SPEAKER_00: And that's what he's doing.
• 11:16
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 11:16
  SPEAKER_00: In fact, he's been doing that now for, you know, the last two weeks.