Latest / Trend Watch / #49: The Trumpisode – Breaking Down His First Week in Office

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#49: The Trumpisode – Breaking Down His First Week in Office · Trend Watch

• 0:01
  I'm your host, Neil Howe, and this is Trend Watch.
• 0:30
  SPEAKER_02: Today is January 23rd, 2025, and this is Trend Watch.
• 0:36
  SPEAKER_02: Welcome back, everybody.
• 0:37
  SPEAKER_02: As usual, I have on my fellow analyst, Christian Ford.
• 0:41
  SPEAKER_02: So, Christian, how was your week?
• 0:44
  SPEAKER_00: My week was pretty good, Neil.
• 0:45
  SPEAKER_00: I've been staying inside, though.
• 0:47
  SPEAKER_00: As you know, inauguration week is always a zoo in the district.
• 0:51
  SPEAKER_00: But what's also good news, the commanders keep on winning.
• 0:55
  SPEAKER_00: They took down the number one seed, Detroit Lions.
• 0:59
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, well, Detroit Lions is one thing.
• 1:02
  SPEAKER_02: Kansas City is another thing.
• 1:05
  SPEAKER_02: Wait till you face that.
• 1:09
  Being an old 49er fan,
• 1:11
  we've certainly run into that wall several times,
• 1:14
  right?
• 1:16
  SPEAKER_02: And you'll see,
• 1:17
  SPEAKER_02: but I will have to say,
• 1:19
  SPEAKER_02: being an old DC resident and a fanatical fan of the Washington Capitals,
• 1:27
  SPEAKER_02: What about them caps?
• 1:28
  SPEAKER_02: I mean,
• 1:29
  SPEAKER_02: come on,
• 1:29
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 1:30
  SPEAKER_02: leading the NHL in points and beating Edmonton last night on the road.
• 1:37
  SPEAKER_02: They didn't have Connor McDavid, but Edmonton played hard.
• 1:41
  SPEAKER_02: We got out of there with a victory.
• 1:43
  SPEAKER_02: Kind of an amazing story.
• 1:45
  SPEAKER_02: We're halfway through the year.
• 1:47
  SPEAKER_02: We have an absolutely stupendous goalie.
• 1:50
  SPEAKER_02: Team's playing hard.
• 1:51
  SPEAKER_02: I don't know what else to say.
• 1:52
  All right,
• 1:53
  well,
• 1:54
  Ovechkin's close to getting that all-time record from Earl Scholes.
• 1:58
  SPEAKER_00: He's 20-something away.
• 1:59
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, he's 21 away.
• 2:00
  SPEAKER_02: He's 20 away from tying...
• 2:04
  SPEAKER_02: So Wayne Gretzky,
• 2:05
  SPEAKER_02: I don't know if that's going to be a distraction in the rest of the year,
• 2:09
  SPEAKER_02: and we'll see.
• 2:12
  SPEAKER_02: There is a possibility,
• 2:13
  SPEAKER_02: of course,
• 2:13
  SPEAKER_02: he could surpass it before the season is over,
• 2:16
  SPEAKER_02: which would really be amazing.
• 2:18
  SPEAKER_02: Right.
• 2:21
  But the team itself is playing well,
• 2:23
  and Ovechkin knows what his role is and what it isn't.
• 2:28
  SPEAKER_02: And anyway, that itself is an amazing story.
• 2:32
  SPEAKER_02: But let's get into this podcast.
• 2:36
  SPEAKER_02: As always,
• 2:37
  SPEAKER_02: and I do this on every show,
• 2:39
  SPEAKER_02: I want to remind you,
• 2:40
  SPEAKER_02: if you like this podcast,
• 2:41
  SPEAKER_02: please go ahead and share it with your friends and family.
• 2:44
  SPEAKER_02: Repost it on social media.
• 2:47
  SPEAKER_02: So Kristen, we're going to break with our usual pattern here.
• 2:53
  SPEAKER_02: This is not so much of an episode.
• 2:55
  SPEAKER_02: This is a Trump episode.
• 2:57
  SPEAKER_02: You know what I mean?
• 2:58
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, I hate to say it, but this is really a Trump week.
• 3:02
  SPEAKER_02: There is so much.
• 3:04
  SPEAKER_02: that has kind of gone down in D.C.
• 3:08
  from the inauguration to all of the executive orders and what's
• 3:13
  going to happen
• 3:14
  SPEAKER_02: under this new administration,
• 3:16
  SPEAKER_02: both what's going to happen here at home,
• 3:18
  SPEAKER_02: what's going to happen around the world,
• 3:20
  SPEAKER_02: what does this mean for national politics,
• 3:22
  SPEAKER_02: geopolitics,
• 3:23
  SPEAKER_02: the whole list,
• 3:25
  SPEAKER_02: that we're going to do this a little differently.
• 3:27
  I think what we're going to do is we're going to talk about the
• 3:32
  inaugural address,
• 3:34
  SPEAKER_02: What was in it?
• 3:35
  SPEAKER_02: What was different from 2016?
• 3:38
  SPEAKER_02: What does that indicate about where Trump is going to go?
• 3:41
  SPEAKER_02: And then we're really going to look at the whole amazing,
• 3:45
  SPEAKER_02: I don't think we've seen,
• 3:46
  I think it's fair to say that never in American history have we
• 3:49
  seen a president
• 3:50
  come in and try to signal so much with executive orders in 24
• 3:56
  hours of coming into office,
• 3:57
  SPEAKER_02: right?
• 3:58
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
• 3:59
  This goes from retribution to vindication to all of his
• 4:03
  anti-woke initiatives,
• 4:05
  SPEAKER_02: Schedule F,
• 4:06
  SPEAKER_02: immigration,
• 4:07
  SPEAKER_02: even renaming the map.
• 4:09
  SPEAKER_02: I mean,
• 4:09
  and that just doesn't even scratch the surface of the stuff
• 4:13
  we're going to talk
• 4:14
  SPEAKER_02: about today,
• 4:14
  SPEAKER_02: right?
• 4:16
  SPEAKER_02: And then we're going to go to the end of that.
• 4:17
  SPEAKER_02: We may, if we have time, talk a little bit about how the
• 4:22
  SPEAKER_02: the Senate confirmation hearings are doing for some of the major,
• 4:27
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 4:28
  SPEAKER_02: cabinet members and agency leaders.
• 4:31
  SPEAKER_02: And then finally,
• 4:31
  I think the one international story we're going to follow is
• 4:39
  what we know about the
• 4:39
  SPEAKER_02: Israel-Hamas ceasefire.
• 4:41
  SPEAKER_02: And even there, you know, the hand of Trump is large, right?
• 4:45
  I mean,
• 4:45
  he sort of forced the two parties to come to the table and do something.
• 4:50
  SPEAKER_02: But we're going to take a look at
• 4:53
  SPEAKER_02: how long this thing and how likely is this thing going to last, right?
• 4:58
  SPEAKER_02: Right.
• 4:58
  SPEAKER_02: So with that, why don't we just start out like we usually do?
• 5:02
  SPEAKER_02: Let's talk a little bit about the markets and let's dive right in.
• 5:06
  SPEAKER_00: All right, Neil.
• 5:06
  SPEAKER_00: Well, this has been the week of the Trump rally.
• 5:09
  The S&P 500 closed up today 0.53% and over the last five days
• 5:11
  is up 3.05%.
• 5:17
  SPEAKER_00: Similar story for the global Dow.
• 5:19
  SPEAKER_00: Today it closed up 0.83% and over the last five days is up 2.77%.
• 5:25
  SPEAKER_00: The VIX closed today at 15.02%.
• 5:27
  SPEAKER_00: That's lower than what we were seeing last week.
• 5:31
  SPEAKER_00: And as for the 10-year Treasury, that is at 4.65%.
• 5:35
  SPEAKER_00: That's actually up three basis points over the last five days.
• 5:39
  SPEAKER_00: Wow.
• 5:39
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 5:40
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, I think there's a lot of global investment going on.
• 5:45
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, the dollar is done very well.
• 5:48
  SPEAKER_02: Interest rates are,
• 5:49
  SPEAKER_02: well,
• 5:49
  SPEAKER_02: they're beginning to rebound again a little bit,
• 5:51
  but they're certainly below where they were a couple of weeks
• 5:54
  ago when the markets
• 5:55
  SPEAKER_02: weren't doing so well.
• 5:57
  SPEAKER_02: I think I think that's absolutely right.
• 5:59
  SPEAKER_02: People are piling on to a to a Trump trade.
• 6:04
  SPEAKER_02: Valuations are just crazy in the market.
• 6:07
  SPEAKER_02: And we will have occasion,
• 6:10
  SPEAKER_02: probably not on this episode,
• 6:11
  SPEAKER_02: but on a future episode to talk more about that.
• 6:14
  SPEAKER_02: What's going on around the world?
• 6:17
  Around the world,
• 6:18
  the only big indicator we got this week was from China,
• 6:21
  where we got Q4 GDP.
• 6:24
  SPEAKER_00: Quarter over quarter, it rose 1.6%.
• 6:27
  SPEAKER_00: That's the strongest increase since Q1 2023.
• 6:31
  SPEAKER_00: Year over year, it rose 5.4%.
• 6:33
  SPEAKER_00: That's the strongest increase since Q2 2023.
• 6:38
  SPEAKER_02: Well, what do you think about that?
• 6:41
  SPEAKER_02: How realistic is that?
• 6:44
  SPEAKER_02: Every year, it seems to do that, right?
• 6:46
  SPEAKER_01: Right.
• 6:48
  SPEAKER_02: Can I bring to your attention,
• 6:49
  SPEAKER_02: this was highlighted recently by the Financial Times,
• 6:53
  SPEAKER_02: a certain chief economist at state-owned SDIC Securities,
• 6:58
  SPEAKER_02: Gao Shanwen.
• 7:00
  SPEAKER_02: Well,
• 7:00
  he said last month that China's economy might have grown in an
• 7:05
  average of only
• 7:06
  SPEAKER_02: about 2% in the past two or three years.
• 7:10
  SPEAKER_02: Well,
• 7:10
  the Wall Street Journal reported last week that Gao has been
• 7:13
  banned from public
• 7:14
  SPEAKER_02: speaking for the comments.
• 7:16
  People familiar with the matter said Chinese financial
• 7:18
  authorities had launched an
• 7:20
  SPEAKER_02: audit of Gao following the remarks.
• 7:23
  SPEAKER_02: People are wondering when he will appear again, right?
• 7:27
  SPEAKER_02: So let that be a lesson.
• 7:29
  SPEAKER_02: I'm going to let you go this time for questioning that 5% number.
• 7:36
  SPEAKER_02: But if it happens again and you make a pattern of this, right?
• 7:42
  SPEAKER_02: Okay, but just be careful, right?
• 7:45
  SPEAKER_02: But anyway, I find this just...
• 7:49
  SPEAKER_02: Incredible with what's happening on the asset side,
• 7:52
  SPEAKER_02: particularly on real estate,
• 7:54
  given the fact that they're having this incredible deflation
• 7:57
  and producer price indexes.
• 8:00
  SPEAKER_02: And everyone in China,
• 8:02
  SPEAKER_02: when you interview them anecdotally,
• 8:04
  talk about businesses closing and how they're beginning to move
• 8:08
  out of whatever
• 8:09
  SPEAKER_02: investment they used to be in,
• 8:11
  SPEAKER_02: that you have an absolutely unchanged GDP.
• 8:14
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
• 8:16
  SPEAKER_02: Put me down as a China GDP skeptic.
• 8:20
  SPEAKER_02: All right.
• 8:21
  SPEAKER_02: All right.
• 8:22
  SPEAKER_02: And I'll just be in that column.
• 8:25
  SPEAKER_02: So any any other news?
• 8:28
  SPEAKER_02: I guess this is kind of a dead week, isn't it?
• 8:30
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, there were a couple of things from the US.
• 8:33
  SPEAKER_00: They weren't huge.
• 8:33
  SPEAKER_00: We got some of those regional manufacturing indexes.
• 8:37
  SPEAKER_00: Philadelphia,
• 8:38
  they actually had a huge spike from negative 10.9 in December
• 8:43
  to positive 44.3 in January.
• 8:46
  We got also the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index,
• 8:49
  and that did exactly the opposite.
• 8:51
  SPEAKER_00: It fell from 2.1 in December to negative 12.6 in January.
• 8:58
  SPEAKER_02: This is why they call them diffusion indexes.
• 9:01
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 9:02
  SPEAKER_02: I think the emphasis on diffusion over a wide range of
• 9:06
  SPEAKER_02: stochastic outcomes, right?
• 9:09
  SPEAKER_02: Well, this is great.
• 9:12
  SPEAKER_02: Shall we, I hate to say this, but are you ready for this Trump episode?
• 9:17
  SPEAKER_02: All right.
• 9:18
  SPEAKER_02: Let's get started.
• 9:18
  Can we just jump right in to maybe where to start with maybe
• 9:23
  the inaugural address,
• 9:24
  SPEAKER_02: and then we can talk a little bit about what the big themes are,
• 9:28
  SPEAKER_02: and maybe about how just Trump is doing poll-wise,
• 9:31
  SPEAKER_02: and then we can just
• 9:34
  SPEAKER_00: On Monday,
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  SPEAKER_00: Trump was inaugurated as the 47th president of the United States,
• 9:38
  SPEAKER_00: and he gave a 20-minute inaugural address from the Capitol building.
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  SPEAKER_00: In his speech,
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  SPEAKER_00: Trump described America as a country in decline,
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  SPEAKER_00: but declared that,
• 9:48
  SPEAKER_00: quote,
• 9:48
  SPEAKER_00: the golden age of America begins right now.
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  He often talked about his own political comeback and the failed
• 9:56
  assassination attempt.
• 9:57
  SPEAKER_00: And he said that, quote, he was saved by God to make America great again.
• 10:02
  SPEAKER_00: You know,
• 10:02
  SPEAKER_00: Neil,
• 10:02
  SPEAKER_00: I'll ask you what you think,
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  but it seemed to me he really gave a speech that emphasized a
• 10:07
  very aggressive
• 10:08
  SPEAKER_00: America first policy.
• 10:10
  SPEAKER_00: You know,
• 10:10
  SPEAKER_00: I know we'll go into the more specifics later about,
• 10:13
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 10:14
  SPEAKER_00: changing the names of the map,
• 10:16
  SPEAKER_00: unleashing American drilling.
• 10:19
  SPEAKER_00: It just seemed to be this very America first.
• 10:22
  SPEAKER_00: What were your takes of the major themes?
• 10:25
  SPEAKER_02: Oh, yeah.
• 10:25
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, it definitely was.
• 10:28
  SPEAKER_02: I think it's interesting to compare it to 2016.
• 10:33
  SPEAKER_02: 2016 was much more of a grievance focus, right?
• 10:36
  SPEAKER_02: There's a lot more of kind of American carnage.
• 10:40
  SPEAKER_02: all of the horrible things happening all over America, right?
• 10:44
  And how the deplorables,
• 10:49
  so to speak,
• 10:50
  have been ground under the feet of the rich and powerful.
• 10:56
  SPEAKER_02: There was still a little bit of that in here.
• 11:00
  SPEAKER_02: Just to give some lines,
• 11:02
  SPEAKER_02: He talks about a crisis of trust.
• 11:05
  A radical and corrupt elite has extracted power and wealth from
• 11:10
  our citizens while
• 11:11
  SPEAKER_02: the pillars of our society is in disrepair.
• 11:15
  SPEAKER_02: We can no longer protect our borders, supply basic services.
• 11:18
  SPEAKER_02: Our health system is failing.
• 11:20
  Our educational curriculum in schools is teaching kids to hate
• 11:25
  their country,
• 11:29
  SPEAKER_02: And that's about it.
• 11:32
  SPEAKER_02: That may sound like pretty strong stuff, but that was kind of it.
• 11:35
  SPEAKER_02: You know what I mean?
• 11:36
  I mean,
• 11:37
  what was a large part of his 2016 speech was kind of closed
• 11:41
  down to that.
• 11:42
  SPEAKER_02: I think his tone this time was, that's all over now, right?
• 11:47
  SPEAKER_02: It's like...
• 11:49
  SPEAKER_02: The we've gotten rid of these people or we soon will be rid of them.
• 11:53
  SPEAKER_02: And all we need to do now is is is,
• 11:56
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 11:57
  SPEAKER_02: ride the train,
• 11:58
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 11:58
  SPEAKER_02: ride the the train into the golden age,
• 12:01
  SPEAKER_02: a new era.
• 12:03
  SPEAKER_02: Our sovereignty will be reclaimed.
• 12:05
  SPEAKER_02: Our safety will be restored.
• 12:07
  SPEAKER_02: We're proud, prosperous, free new heights of victory and success.
• 12:12
  SPEAKER_02: And on and on and on.
• 12:13
  I mean,
• 12:13
  he went on to talk about we will consider ourselves once again
• 12:18
  a growing nation.
• 12:19
  SPEAKER_02: Very interesting, too, to think about the emphasis on the subjective.
• 12:24
  SPEAKER_02: You know, will we be a growing nation?
• 12:27
  SPEAKER_02: Well, who cares?
• 12:28
  SPEAKER_02: We will consider ourselves a growing nation.
• 12:31
  SPEAKER_02: The way he just phrased that is sort of interesting.
• 12:35
  SPEAKER_02: Manifest destiny.
• 12:37
  SPEAKER_02: We will plant the stars and stripes on planet Mars.
• 12:41
  SPEAKER_02: ambition is the lifeblood of a great nation.
• 12:44
  SPEAKER_02: And I thought it was really a nice phrase.
• 12:48
  SPEAKER_02: In America, the impossible is what we do best, right?
• 12:51
  SPEAKER_02: Oh, come on.
• 12:52
  SPEAKER_02: Come on, Christian.
• 12:54
  SPEAKER_02: That is a great, that's nice.
• 12:56
  SPEAKER_02: That's a really well-turned phrase.
• 13:00
  And then he goes on,
• 13:01
  the entire nation is rapidly mobilizing around our agenda.
• 13:04
  SPEAKER_02: I'll tell you one thing that I found about it.
• 13:09
  SPEAKER_02: Very upbeat, but also very impersonal.
• 13:13
  SPEAKER_02: It was, yes, upbeat, triumphalist.
• 13:16
  It was hearkening back to a growing,
• 13:18
  hopeful America with the manifest destiny spirit.
• 13:22
  SPEAKER_02: It was extremely collective and nationalist, right?
• 13:25
  SPEAKER_02: And we'll get into that later.
• 13:26
  SPEAKER_02: You know, not so much Greenland.
• 13:29
  We discussed that last week,
• 13:30
  but he did raise Panama and a lot of other stuff like that.
• 13:34
  SPEAKER_02: But I did find it was abstract.
• 13:36
  There was nothing in particular that he talked about that he
• 13:41
  was going to give to
• 13:42
  SPEAKER_02: the average citizen or asked from the average citizen,
• 13:46
  SPEAKER_02: right?
• 13:46
  SPEAKER_02: There was no ask not what your country can do for you,
• 13:51
  SPEAKER_02: ask what you can do for your country,
• 13:52
  SPEAKER_02: I mean,
• 13:53
  SPEAKER_02: none of that.
• 13:54
  SPEAKER_02: Ask you of great sacrifices to help America.
• 13:57
  No,
• 13:57
  no,
• 13:57
  it was just going to happen and you're going to just enjoy the ride,
• 14:02
  right?
• 14:03
  SPEAKER_02: But I do find this emphasis upon the collective very interesting.
• 14:10
  SPEAKER_02: And,
• 14:12
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 14:12
  SPEAKER_02: I do this from time to time,
• 14:14
  but this is definitely a sign that we are very mature in the
• 14:19
  fourth turning.
• 14:20
  SPEAKER_02: You know what I mean?
• 14:21
  SPEAKER_01: Right.
• 14:21
  SPEAKER_02: Because the fourth turning, it's all about community.
• 14:25
  SPEAKER_02: And I want to quote my own book.
• 14:28
  SPEAKER_02: This actually came from the first chapter.
• 14:31
  SPEAKER_02: when I'm comparing the 1930s with what we've been in since,
• 14:36
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 14:36
  SPEAKER_02: since the GFC and particularly since the pandemic,
• 14:40
  SPEAKER_02: I had this sentence where I'm summing up a lot of these trends,
• 14:43
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 14:43
  SPEAKER_02: as we move toward this more team-oriented idea of the nation and,
• 14:49
  SPEAKER_02: frankly,
• 14:50
  SPEAKER_02: a more no-holds-barred,
• 14:53
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 14:53
  SPEAKER_02: geopolitical scene where everyone just sort of takes what they can,
• 14:57
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 14:57
  SPEAKER_02: double-take-the-hindmost kind of thing,
• 15:00
  SPEAKER_02: right?