Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 383 - 10/28/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

Transcript

Episode 383 - 10/28/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

• 0:01
  54321 All systems Go with Josh Applebaum starts now.
• 0:13
  Hello and welcome to Episode. 383.
• 0:18
  Of the all. Systems Go sports betting
• 0:20
  podcast powered by Rhythm. I'm your host, Josh.
• 0:24
  Applebaum, what's going on, everyone?
• 0:30
  Happy Tuesday. Another day here in the arena.
• 0:33
  Guys, as we March on. On Halloween week here of.
• 0:36
  Course and we got a. Lot to get.
• 0:37
  To on today's podcast because I have a three pack of sweats for.
• 0:41
  You including a play in. College football with a really
• 0:44
  good bio opportunity. This line's moved quite a bit.
• 0:47
  And we have a. Good rhythm edge here, hopefully
• 0:49
  to take advantage of. On a team that.
• 0:51
  Switched their quarterback and is playing a little bit better.
• 0:53
  So hopefully they can cover this number here for us tonight.
• 0:56
  And then also a couple. Plays in the NBA I.
• 0:58
  Have a play on a. Total.
• 1:00
  With another good rhythm edge as well as a good system match play
• 1:03
  and then believe it or not. I have an NBA.
• 1:05
  Player prop for you there is a player in particular who's been.
• 1:08
  Lighting it up and I'm hoping he lights it up.
• 1:10
  Again here for tonight so. We will have a three pack
• 1:13
  overall, 1 college, two NBA. See if we can go 2IN1.
• 1:16
  Eek out a winning night. And then, of course, it is a
• 1:19
  Tuesday. So that means even though we
• 1:21
  don't. Have huge slate of college
• 1:22
  football again. Couple games tonight, but I want
• 1:25
  to look ahead for an early sharp report for College Football
• 1:27
  Week. 10 Yes, Can you believe? It we're already up to.
• 1:30
  NFL or sorry, college? Week 10.
• 1:32
  NFL Week 9. So 3 early plays that caught my
• 1:35
  eye. Two of which you can hopefully
• 1:37
  jump on. The hook.
• 1:38
  Before it falls right now and then another one where I was
• 1:41
  kind of walking a. Tightrope There's an injury.
• 1:43
  At play if this guy plays the lines.
• 1:46
  Probably going to go against. Us.
• 1:47
  But if he doesn't play and he didn't practice today, then we
• 1:50
  might get a really good. Number and see this line
• 1:52
  continue to move, so a. Lot of early college talk here.
• 1:55
  For the upcoming. Weekend in Week 10.
• 1:58
  Now looking back to our last night guys, sadly our rough
• 2:00
  stretch. Continued and this was another.
• 2:02
  Loss O and 1 minus. One unit with the Washington
• 2:05
  Commanders. Again, after a terrible weekend,
• 2:08
  Commanders did not cover the number.
• 2:10
  Now it looked like they might find a way.
• 2:12
  To cover because we got a plus. 11 1/2 they got down to plus 10.
• 2:15
  And a half they even closed at. Plus 10.
• 2:18
  So once again, an example of us. Reading the market correctly.
• 2:21
  Beating the closing line again. You talk to a lot of wise guys,
• 2:24
  a lot of sharps, a lot of pro batters, really their number one
• 2:27
  goal aside. From winning is beating the
• 2:28
  closing line, so you get an. 11 and a.
• 2:30
  Half line close, 10 1/2 or 10. We did our part.
• 2:34
  Of course, Kansas City rolled. US in the second.
• 2:36
  Half there because the game was tied. 7:00 to 7:00 at the half.
• 2:39
  I'm saying, OK, we got a shot here.
• 2:41
  Then what happens? Kansas City comes out, gets the.
• 2:43
  Ball and they go for it on 4th and one.
• 2:47
  And they score a. Touchdown and then they score a
• 2:49
  couple more. In the second-half so.
• 2:51
  That one was rough because it was.
• 2:53
  Almost the. Same thing that happened in the
• 2:55
  Steelers game. On Sunday night where you had
• 2:58
  Steelers. Up at the half and.
• 2:59
  Then get completely rolled. Second-half SO.
• 3:02
  We beat the closing line. We had a good rhythm edge.
• 3:05
  We had a Robo Jackson best bet pick.
• 3:06
  I mean, everything lined up just again, the play on the field did
• 3:10
  not come. Through in our direction.
• 3:12
  So to put a little. Cherry on top or what's?
• 3:15
  What's the opposite of a cherry? I don't know to to put a, you
• 3:18
  know, something on top of a of a.
• 3:19
  Flowers on your grave. I came up with that randomly,
• 3:22
  but listen to this. Stat.
• 3:24
  And it tells you why we had such a.
• 3:26
  Bad week in the. NFL This is from David Purdum.
• 3:29
  David Purdum is a great follow on Twitter at David Purdum.
• 3:32
  He writes for ESPN Gambling. But he tweeted.
• 3:35
  This out earlier today quote NFL favorites went 11 and. 2.
• 3:39
  Against the spread in week. Week 8 tying.
• 3:43
  Week 3 of the 1998 season. For the.
• 3:46
  Highest percentage of favorites to cover the spread.
• 3:48
  In a single week since 1970, so 1998 I.
• 3:53
  Was 11 years old again. Since 1970, the two best weeks.
• 3:58
  Of all time for favorites were. Week 3 and 98 and then the week
• 4:03
  we just experienced. So I know it's rough.
• 4:05
  I know it's been a tough stretch here, but again, as as the great
• 4:09
  Winston Churchill once said, I watched this great Churchill
• 4:12
  documentary. During World War 2, when
• 4:14
  everybody in Britain was like, hey, let's just, you know,
• 4:16
  appease Hitler and just, you know, lay down our arms and
• 4:19
  we'll, we'll kind of just appease him.
• 4:23
  We had Winston Churchill say no, we're going to.
• 4:25
  Fight on the beaches, we're going to fight.
• 4:26
  On the shores fight. On the air and when you're going
• 4:29
  through hell. Keep going.
• 4:30
  So again, here's the thing. Favorites Crush.
• 4:33
  That means books get crushed. That means the public's.
• 4:35
  Happy. And that means contrarian.
• 4:37
  Betters are not happy because. Again, a long term approach.
• 4:40
  Winning. Approach is dogs but.
• 4:42
  You're going to get a week here and there.
• 4:44
  Like this week. Like that week in 19?
• 4:46
  98 Where favorites. Absolutely crushed.
• 4:48
  So again. Props to the public.
• 4:51
  But hey, when you're a contrarian, better.
• 4:53
  And I had a lot of people say, you got to bet these.
• 4:55
  Favorites. And it's like, OK, like after
• 4:58
  the fact they covered, it's like, yeah.
• 4:59
  If I had a crystal ball, that would have been great.
• 5:01
  But that goes against. All the founding.
• 5:03
  Philosophies that have worked historically.
• 5:06
  So I don't. Think you want to switch?
• 5:07
  It up completely does that mean we.
• 5:09
  Dial back dogs, does that mean we get regression to dogs?
• 5:12
  Does that. Mean we layer in a player prop
• 5:14
  or maybe. A total here or there with these
• 5:17
  dogs struggling we'll. Have to kind of take.
• 5:19
  It game by game, but as always when you're.
• 5:22
  Struggling and things aren't going well.
• 5:23
  Don't get down on yourself. You know, don't don't get.
• 5:26
  Depressed as much as it is. Annoying and and heartbreaking.
• 5:30
  Just got to keep grinding, keep sticking with it, and again.
• 5:32
  If you bet. Sports long enough.
• 5:34
  Here's the thing, I can always tell kind of some new betters
• 5:37
  versus. People who've been.
• 5:39
  Betting for a while the new betters you know.
• 5:41
  You get an O and six run. O and seven after last night,
• 5:45
  you know it's like jump off a. Building.
• 5:47
  If you've been betting long enough, you know.
• 5:48
  That, hey, you're going to have seven and.
• 5:49
  O's, you're going to have O and seven, so you just got to keep
• 5:52
  grinding, keep sticking with it. So that being said, let's talk
• 5:55
  about a few plays here for tonight.
• 5:57
  Guys, cuz it's a not quite the sports betting equinox.
• 6:00
  By the way, did anyone stay up 18 innings?
• 6:02
  To watch the Dodgers walk off with.
• 6:04
  Freddie Freeman I did not, but I went to bed and it was still
• 6:07
  tied. But what an?
• 6:08
  Insane game. Remind me of that Red Sox game
• 6:10
  in 2018 where Nathan Ivaldi came in and they lost in the 18th.
• 6:13
  But anyway. We do have college.
• 6:15
  We got NFL or sorry, NBA. I should say so.
• 6:18
  Let's see if we can. Get a couple winners here and
• 6:20
  turn our. Our cold streak around.
• 6:23
  Because here's the other thing guys, just to mention this.
• 6:25
  When you're hot. You're always worried like don't
• 6:27
  jinx it because there's. Going to be a cold stretch when
• 6:29
  you're cold. If you look at it the other way,
• 6:32
  you're going to bust out. Pretty soon so hopefully.
• 6:33
  Tonight is the night now. First play on the board for me.
• 6:37
  Let's. Talk some college football.
• 6:39
  There's two games overall and I want to talk about.
• 6:42
  The 8:00 game UTEP against Kennesaw.
• 6:45
  State. Now this one is interesting.
• 6:47
  For a variety of reasons. UTEP comes in two and five that
• 6:51
  just beat Samuelson State 35 to 17 last game out.
• 6:54
  Kennesaw State. Is five and two.
• 6:57
  They've won five in a row. They're playing very well.
• 6:59
  I believe they just came up from.
• 7:00
  Was it FCS to FBS? But right off the bat, it looks
• 7:04
  like, hey, easy play Kennesaw State right there.
• 7:06
  Five and two UTEP 2. And five.
• 7:09
  I'm going to take the point with UTEP.
• 7:10
  Now, I'm not going to call UTEP a sharp play.
• 7:12
  I'm going to call it kind of a value play because here's what's
• 7:15
  real. Look, here's what we're looking
• 7:16
  at here. In the betting market now.
• 7:18
  Number one, the line is really jumped up toward Kennesaw State.
• 7:21
  Kennesaw State at some shops open as low as. -8 1/2 - 9.
• 7:26
  You're all the way up now to. 10 1/2.
• 7:28
  So you're looking at a, you know. 2 1/2.
• 7:30
  Point 1 1/2. .2 point. Move.
• 7:32
  In favor of Kennesaw State, so have to admit early.
• 7:35
  Money later with Kennesaw State. But here's the thing.
• 7:38
  Kennesaw State is a very popular play tonight.
• 7:41
  Again, there's only two games in college.
• 7:42
  They're both at 8:00. O'clock again I I don't get.
• 7:44
  This give me a 7. O'clock, give me a A.
• 7:46
  Nine o'clock 10:00 but anyway. 70% of spread bets are on
• 7:50
  Kennesaw State. Far better record, they're at
• 7:52
  home. 83% of bets at Circa. Are on Kennesaw State.
• 7:55
  So they're a very popular. Play here tonight.
• 7:58
  But here's the thing, it looks like the.
• 8:00
  Point of resistance is the. 10 1/2.
• 8:01
  Because a lot of books are getting.
• 8:03
  Bet up to 10 1/2 and. Then you're starting to see the
• 8:05
  juice come back the. Other way toward UTEP?
• 8:07
  So now plus 10 1/2 -, 115. I was able to get.
• 8:11
  UTEP Plus 10 1/2 -, 115 at Fanatics.
• 8:14
  But if you look. Across the board right now.
• 8:17
  There's some other books that are let.
• 8:18
  Me just pull up the the latest numbers. 10 1/2.
• 8:21
  At -1. Let me see here. -120 at ESPN.
• 8:26
  Bet. 10 1/2 minus. 1:15 at FanDuel and there's a.
• 8:29
  Few other books that are down at 10.
• 8:31
  DraftKings, Caesar's. Bet MGM.
• 8:34
  So 10 1/2 looks to be the point of resistance.
• 8:36
  I always look at when a line moves up quite a bit.
• 8:39
  Does it? Just keep going like never
• 8:41
  ending steam or does. Is there a point of resistance
• 8:43
  then starts to creep back it? Looks like UTEP.
• 8:45
  In the 10 1/2. With the hook there is the is
• 8:48
  the point of resistance. The other angle that I like
• 8:50
  with. UTEP is.
• 8:51
  Just a #1 contrarian play tonight.
• 8:53
  They're only getting around. 30% of spread bets.
• 8:55
  And a heavily bet. Game.
• 8:57
  So you're contrarian? You're getting a little.
• 8:59
  Bit of sharp buyback if you look at one angle that.
• 9:03
  Jumped out to me as I was kind. Of doing.
• 9:04
  Some research on these teams. UTEP switch their quarterback.
• 9:08
  So if you look at kind of the production that they've gotten
• 9:11
  so far this year, they started. With a guy, Malachi Nelson.
• 9:15
  Who had eight touchdowns, 9 picks and kind of struggled and
• 9:19
  they switched this kid, Skylar Locklear, who's played pretty
• 9:23
  decent like those. Last game out he's. 21 of 26
• 9:25
  two. 136 yards. 2T DS. 11 pick I was reading about how.
• 9:31
  Kind of the. Offense has been a lot better.
• 9:32
  Since they made this. Quarterback switch, but then
• 9:34
  also conference dog. So couple Conference USA teams
• 9:38
  conference dog. Built in.
• 9:40
  Familiarity levels the playing field, benefits the team getting
• 9:43
  points. You also look at defensively.
• 9:46
  UTEP actually has the better. Defense only giving up 357 yards
• 9:50
  per game. That's 62nd in college.
• 9:52
  Kennesaw has given up. 400 per game, that's one O 3 and then.
• 9:56
  Little cherry on top here. I popped open rhythm.
• 9:59
  I have two. Rhythm Green star plays.
• 10:01
  On UTEP one. Says UTEP should be plus 8.8,
• 10:04
  the other one says UTEP should be +9.
• 10:07
  The other angle here is. A little bit of a.
• 10:10
  Big dog correlative betting relatively low.
• 10:12
  Total. So total in this one is around
• 10:14
  51. And 1/2.
• 10:15
  So if you're a dog. Getting 10 1/2.
• 10:17
  And a total of. 51 1/2. Like 51 1/2 in the NFL is
• 10:20
  considered a. High total college that's kind
• 10:22
  of relatively. Low total again, you can see
• 10:24
  college totals in the 60s, you know, pretty consistently here,
• 10:29
  but. Again, fewer amount of expected.
• 10:31
  Points scored harder for the favorite to cover.
• 10:33
  That big double digit? Number and lastly popped open
• 10:36
  juice rail and I noticed a 20. 3% sharp mush edge in favor of.
• 10:41
  UTEP, so 23%. Of the Sharper.
• 10:44
  Winning players are going. With UTEP here, so Kennesaw
• 10:47
  State, we've seen this line move in their favor, but looks to me
• 10:50
  like. You've kind of reached, you
• 10:52
  know, high watermark and starting to creep back down, so
• 10:55
  I'm going to buy low on this inflated dog again.
• 10:58
  Rhythm says it should be an 888.8 or 9 point.
• 11:01
  Game Juice Reel has all the sharp betters who have download
• 11:04
  the app on UTEP as well. So I'm going to.
• 11:07
  Take a shot here on. UTEP as a contrarian inflated.
• 11:10
  Dog I got UTEP. At plus 10 1/2 -, 115 at
• 11:15
  Fanatics. Now over to the NBA.
• 11:18
  Couple NBA plays here for tonight.
• 11:20
  First one for me guys is a player prop.
• 11:22
  Again, I was looking at the board and I was just kind of
• 11:26
  dabbling into some rhythm recommendations and then I was,
• 11:29
  I remember watching this guy. Opening night against my Celtics
• 11:32
  and I'm like, man. They might have struck gold
• 11:34
  here. So I'm looking at VJ Edgecomb
• 11:37
  now. If you remember VJ Edgecomb.
• 11:39
  I think it was the third overall pick.
• 11:40
  He had a great career. At Baylor.
• 11:42
  He was a one and done. But he is, absolutely.
• 11:44
  Lit up the NBA. So VJ Edgecomb, and this is the
• 11:47
  Sixers versus the Wizards. Tonight the opponents also part
• 11:50
  of my handicap here. But Vijay Edgecomb over 19 1/2.
• 11:56
  Points -1. 12 I got it, DraftKings.
• 11:59
  Now he's a 19. And a half everywhere but
• 12:01
  DraftKings is over. -112 Fanatics is -1. 15 ESPN bets
• 12:07
  -115 vandals -114. Caesars is -120.
• 12:11
  One bet MGM is minus. 120. 5 So no matter what.
• 12:15
  Always get the best juice price so DraftKings over 19.
• 12:18
  And 1/2 -, 1. 12 That was the best.
• 12:20
  Line that I saw, which I jumped. On but my angle.
• 12:22
  Here is over. 19 1/2 points. Can you get us 20?
• 12:26
  Points tonight. That is the goal.
• 12:27
  Now, in three games, he. Scored 34. 15 and 26 now he
• 12:33
  scored 26. Last night that was against.
• 12:34
  Orlando. So this is the second leg of a
• 12:37
  back-to-back? But the kid is only 20 years
• 12:39
  old. So hopefully you know.
• 12:40
  When you're 20, remember when I was 20 you felt like you could.
• 12:43
  Run through a wall. You never got tired.
• 12:44
  Now I'm 38 and you know I get tired by 9:00 at night and I got
• 12:48
  to watch a game and I got to stay amped and watched it.
• 12:50
  But anyway. Edgecomb has averaged. 24 1/2
• 12:54
  points a game. The other thing is when you're
• 12:56
  betting a. Player prop person to go over.
• 12:59
  You need them to get. As much playing time as
• 13:01
  possible. So he has logged. 42 minutes, 40
• 13:05
  minutes and 39. Minutes in the 1st.
• 13:07
  Three games of his career. So he's out there a lot.
• 13:11
  The other angle that I like is you're going up against the
• 13:14
  Washington. Defense that isn't very good.
• 13:16
  Washington defensive efficiency is ranked. 25th in the NBA.
• 13:21
  Also, this is a very high. Total game.
• 13:23
  So total in this game. Is now up to.
• 13:25
  Around 2:00. 38230. 9 so. Again, if you're playing a.
• 13:29
  Points. Over.
• 13:31
  You want a high total more expected.
• 13:33
  Points scored, more opportunity for.
• 13:34
  Your guy to go over if there was a low total.
• 13:37
  Game of like 2. 15 again, you'd be less.
• 13:39
  Excited. For a player to go.
• 13:41
  Over because you know that would mean that.
• 13:43
  Fewer amount of expected points. Are predicted.
• 13:46
  So we have VJ Edgecomb over. 19 1/2 averaging 24 1/2.
• 13:51
  Per game getting a lot of minutes and a high total.
• 13:53
  Game against the bad. Defense.
• 13:55
  And then here's the. Kicker popped open rhythm.
• 13:57
  Looked at the prediction for VJ Edgecomb.
• 14:00
  And I have a recommended over. With rhythm predicting 25. .4
• 14:05
  points, so that's a pretty decent.
• 14:06
  Little 5 point edge. Off of the current price.
• 14:10
  So my first player prop of the year.
• 14:12
  VJ Edgecomb, can you get me 20 points?
• 14:15
  Tonight, buddy, hope that. You can at the over 19 half with
• 14:18
  Edgecomb. Points scored.
• 14:20
  Last bit of the night, LA Clippers.
• 14:23
  And the Golden State Warriors. Now this is a very.
• 14:26
  Late game, so I'm going to have to make sure that I am staying
• 14:29
  up late for this one now. This is an 11:00.
• 14:32
  Game and it's. Going to be on I believe NBC or
• 14:35
  Peacock. So anyone who wants.
• 14:37
  To sweat it, watch it. You should be able to now this
• 14:40
  line did move toward the Clippers.
• 14:41
  Warriors went from around a. 1 1/2 point favorite to now a.
• 14:45
  Clippers. -2 Favorite. And I think the reason for that
• 14:48
  is second leg of a back-to-back Warriors played last night.
• 14:51
  But I'm going to. Look toward the over here.
• 14:53
  Give me the over 224 1/2. To 25 now.
• 14:58
  This total. Opened around 2:20. 4 1/2 It's
• 15:00
  been bet up to 225 at some shops it has reached.
• 15:04
  As high as 2/20. 5 1/2. Even 226.
• 15:07
  So it's kind of either stayed. The same or gone up.
• 15:10
  At every book across the market now you.
• 15:11
  Can get an over 224 1/2. -110 of fanatics, you.
• 15:15
  Can definitely get a 225, but if you're playing the over again,
• 15:19
  best number there is. Over 224 1/2.
• 15:21
  This is a big system match and rhythm play for me Now, in terms
• 15:25
  of system matches, you look at these overs.
• 15:29
  Overs on the year are 34 and 1964.
• 15:33
  Percent. So it's.
• 15:34
  Been a pretty good angle just in general.
• 15:37
  With a lot of points scored. Early in the season here.
• 15:40
  So you're operating? You're swimming in the.
• 15:41
  Waters of overs right now. But the other angle I look at is
• 15:45
  when you're in a sweet spot. So you are looking at a total.
• 15:50
  You can you can cut it off one of two ways.
• 15:52
  You can look at over 224 1/2. Or higher.
• 15:55
  So between 224 1/2. And 2:29.
• 15:59
  That's your sweet spot that over this year is.
• 16:03
  Let me pull it up. Five and three and since.
• 16:06
  The start of last year. It is 82 and 4764% with a 20.
• 16:11
  1%. ROI So that's your sweet.
• 16:13
  Spot of going over. The other angle for me.
• 16:17
  Is a short spread, so Clippers are favored by two, so short
• 16:21
  spread, hopefully. A competitive game back and.
• 16:24
  Forth a lot of. Scoring maybe get overtime.
• 16:27
  The other angle is a rhythm prediction of 226.4.
• 16:31
  So if you can get over 224 and half 225, 226 point. 4 is
• 16:36
  basically a 1 1/2 or two. Point edge off the current.
• 16:39
  Price The Clippers are 8th. In pace you actually I I.
• 16:44
  Thought of the Clippers as kind of a.
• 16:45
  Slow team. They're actually pretty.
• 16:47
  Quick in terms of possessions per game, they're number.
• 16:49
  Seven in offensive efficiency. Golden State is number 5 in
• 16:53
  offensive efficiency. So we got a quick team we have.
• 16:56
  Two top 10 offenses and. Believe it or not, both.
• 16:59
  These teams really struggling defensively because the.
• 17:02
  Clippers are ranked 16th. And defensive efficiency, so
• 17:06
  not. Terrible, but kind of bottom
• 17:08
  half and the Golden State. Warriors are ranked 28th and
• 17:12
  Defensive Efficiency. So they've really struggled
• 17:14
  again. They're off to a good.
• 17:15
  Start, but they're scoring points.
• 17:17
  They're giving up points. But the total is either stayed
• 17:19
  the same arisen. You can still get over 224 1/2.
• 17:23
  We have good offense. Mediocre support defense betting
• 17:26
  systems and good. Rhythm edge.
• 17:28
  So I'm going. To play and I already put in
• 17:31
  clips golden. State I got over. 225.
• 17:35
  Because at the. Time it was 225 1/2 but you you
• 17:37
  can get an over 224 1/2. If you want to play it, but
• 17:40
  hopefully we get some points there, Clippers and Golden
• 17:42
  State. So Edgecomb over 19?
• 17:44
  And a half Clippers. Golden State over 224 and a
• 17:47
  half, 225 and UTEP. Plus 10 1/2 minus. 115 Hopefully
• 17:52
  we can find a way to. Scratch and claw and get 2 out
• 17:54
  of three. Now looking toward the upcoming.
• 17:57
  Weekend as we like. To do on a Tuesday, have our eye
• 18:00
  geared towards Saturday and try to get.
• 18:02
  Some good numbers. And meet some closing.
• 18:03
  Lines. First of all I want to mention.
• 18:06
  Vanderbilt in Texas now. As of right now, this.
• 18:09
  Is your number one most heavily bet game of the weekend and I
• 18:11
  mentioned earlier where? You're kind of walking a.
• 18:14
  Tightrope here, because you don't.
• 18:15
  Know whether or not arch. Manning is going to play.
• 18:18
  He has a concussion. He's in concussion.
• 18:20
  Protocol. I read a report.
• 18:21
  That he did not practice yesterday.
• 18:23
  I don't know about today, but it's pretty clear.
• 18:26
  That this line is moving toward Vanderbilt now Vandy comes in.
• 18:30
  Seven and one ranked 9th. They beat Missouri 17 to 10 last
• 18:33
  week. Covered -3 at home.
• 18:35
  Meanwhile, Texas six and two, they're ranked 20th.
• 18:38
  They beat Mississippi State 45 to 38 in overtime.
• 18:41
  Didn't cover. Though the -7 1/2 on the road
• 18:44
  now when it was maybe. Thought that Arch Manning would.
• 18:48
  Play Texas. Opened as around a minus. 3 1/2
• 18:51
  favorite. At home.
• 18:52
  However -3 and a. Half is down, down to -1 1/2.
• 18:56
  Some books even trending down to 1.
• 18:59
  So this line is. Moving toward Vanderbilt and
• 19:01
  again. Maybe that's because sharps
• 19:03
  like. Vandy or maybe more likely.
• 19:05
  It's that. Arch Manning may not play.
• 19:07
  At circa. Vandy's only getting 29%.
• 19:10
  Of spread bets, but. Vandy is actually getting 60.
• 19:13
  Percent of spread dollars so good.
• 19:15
  Low bets, higher dollar split. In favor.
• 19:17
  Of The Commodores, I have some system matches here.
• 19:20
  Short Rd. dogs getting 4 or less.
• 19:22
  They're 53 percent, 3% ROI since 2012.
• 19:26
  Two SEC teams play each other Take.
• 19:27
  The dog that's 57% against the spread since. 2024 Vandy is a
• 19:32
  dog who can score. System match they are averaging.
• 19:35
  37 points per game. That's ninth in the country, so
• 19:38
  score enough, hopefully, to keep Pacer.
• 19:40
  Back to our cover and I did notice that.
• 19:42
  You can still get Vandy. +2 like every book across the market.
• 19:46
  Is pretty much Vandy. Plus 1 1/2.
• 19:49
  But I did notice that Fanatics is offering.
• 19:51
  Vandy +2 So I jumped on Vandy. +2 we just.
• 19:54
  Look right now looks like the twos are gone again.
• 19:58
  If you follow the all systems go best bet picks on the juicer app
• 20:01
  you. Would have gotten that as soon
• 20:02
  as I put it in, but a lot of. The twos are gone.
• 20:05
  The one and a halfs are. Juiced toward Vandy.
• 20:07
  Looks like it's. Getting down to one, I'm
• 20:09
  wondering if that means. Arch Manning may not play.
• 20:12
  So again, if he's out. You're probably going to hop
• 20:14
  the. Fence go to Vandy. -1 or two,
• 20:16
  but I did. Put in Vandy +2.
• 20:18
  I'm. Hoping Arch Manning is out.
• 20:20
  Again, if he plays, you're going to see this creep back up and
• 20:22
  we're. Going to be like man jumped on
• 20:24
  that too early but I like Vandy and the points here.
• 20:26
  So I got Vanderbilt +2 you can still get.
• 20:29
  Plus 1 1/2. And by the way, rhythm.
• 20:32
  Has Vandy plus 0.3 and plus 0.9. So Vandy's got bit.
• 20:37
  Rhythm basically has Vandy as a. Pick em.
• 20:39
  So I'll take the points there. You know I.
• 20:42
  Love betting a team that. Was terrible the previous.
• 20:44
  Weekend and cost me money. You.
• 20:46
  Know I love playing them again, right?
• 20:47
  Oklahoma and Tennessee. This one jumped out to me it.
• 20:50
  Looks gross. Oklahoma played terrible.
• 20:53
  As a faith, the trendy. Dog play losing out right but
• 20:56
  I'm on him this. Weekend Oklahoma's at Tennessee.
• 20:59
  This is a 730 primetime game. Oklahoma comes in six and two.
• 21:03
  Ranked 18th. Lost to Ole Miss 3426 as a four.
• 21:07
  And a half point favorite. At home.
• 21:09
  Tennessee, six and two ranked 14th, just crushed Kentucky 56
• 21:13
  to 34, covering the. Senate, 7 1/2 at home.
• 21:17
  Now Tennessee open as a. 3 1/2 point.
• 21:19
  Favorite in this prime time game?
• 21:20
  7:30 on Saturday night and the public says what they just saw
• 21:24
  over the weekend. Oklahoma You.
• 21:26
  Stink, I can't argue with them because that was a rough sweat
• 21:30
  with with Oklahoma there, but public says.
• 21:32
  Give me Tennessee. All day Vols will roll.
• 21:34
  Easily win by four more. However, even though 71.
• 21:37
  Percent of spread bets. Are on Tennessee.
• 21:39
  Tennessee open -3 1/2. They're not up to four or five,
• 21:43
  they're down to three. So this line is moving toward
• 21:46
  the key number of three down to three in favor of Oklahoma, even
• 21:48
  though. Everyone is playing, Tennessee
• 21:50
  tells me. We got smart money here coming.
• 21:53
  In on Oklahoma. Oklahoma is.
• 21:56
  Super contrarian, only about 30% of tickets and heavily bet
• 21:59
  primetime game. They have buy low value as a dog
• 22:02
  who. Lost and didn't cover the
• 22:04
  previous week. Against they sell high home
• 22:06
  favorite who's popular who did cover the previous.
• 22:08
  Week there'll be a short. Road dog for last system match.
• 22:12
  SEC conference dog system match and if you look at.
• 22:18
  The rhythm prediction. Here rhythm is predicting plus
• 22:21
  3.3. So it's not a huge edge there,
• 22:24
  but you. Can.
• 22:25
  Still get a hook with a 3 1/2 now if you look right now.
• 22:28
  So I jumped on Tennessee or sorry, Oklahoma Plus. 3 1/2 -
• 22:33
  120. You can still get plus. 3 1/2
• 22:36
  minus. 120 at ESPN bet. Plus 3 1/2 - 1. 22 at FanDuel,
• 22:40
  but every other book is down to three.
• 22:42
  But this is a data. Play for me again.
• 22:44
  Everyone's playing Tennessee, but they open lane the hook and.
• 22:47
  It's down to three and pretty much every book across the
• 22:49
  market except a few outliers. I know it's gross.
• 22:52
  I know they just let us down. Let's see if they can bounce
• 22:55
  back and get a win. For us, I'm on Oklahoma.
• 22:57
  Plus 3 1/2. Last early bet for me, Texas
• 23:01
  Tech and Kansas State. This is a 3/30.
• 23:04
  Game coming up on Saturday. Texas Tech comes in seven and.
• 23:08
  One ranked 13th, just beat up on Oklahoma State, 42 to nothing.
• 23:13
  However, the -37. And 1/2 at home.
• 23:15
  K states. Four and four unranked.
• 23:17
  Just beat Kansas though, 42 to 17.
• 23:19
  They won that game. Outright as a 3 1/2 point Rd.
• 23:22
  favorite. So what do you see across the
• 23:24
  market here? Well, this game opened.
• 23:26
  Texas Tech -7 on the. Road and public is hammering.
• 23:29
  Texas Tech. They're getting 76.
• 23:31
  Percent of spread bets at DraftKings, however, even
• 23:34
  though. Everyone's playing the red.
• 23:35
  Raiders they're not up to. -8 - 9.
• 23:38
  They've stayed right where they're at. -7 and anytime
• 23:41
  they've gone up to -7 1/2. You've seen sharp money.
• 23:44
  Play the Wildcats of K. State.
• 23:47
  And drop it back down to 7. So that tells me we've got a
• 23:49
  line freeze, some reverse line movement coming back here in
• 23:53
  favor of. Kansas State.
• 23:55
  They're one of the top. Bet against the public plays of
• 23:57
  the week they're getting. Around 1/4 of tickets at Circa
• 24:01
  though 55% spread bets. 90. 2% spread dollars.
• 24:05
  Ranked opponent that spot is. 54% ATS this year and all the
• 24:10
  way dating. Back not all the.
• 24:11
  Way but since the start of last year. 54% ATS as well.
• 24:16
  And then? We have our friends at Rhythm.
• 24:19
  Saying case they should be. Plus 6.2 or +5. .6 now.
• 24:25
  The other angle here is you got to get.
• 24:26
  The hook because again lose by. 7.
• 24:28
  You want to cover. So I got +7.
• 24:30
  And F -, 120 you can still get. Plus 7 1/2 minus. 120.
• 24:33
  ESPN bet or FanDuel? But every other book is down at
• 24:36
  7:00, so maybe this is red. Raiders win by 7.
• 24:39
  Or less maybe K state. Pulls up, pulls off the.
• 24:42
  Upset, but I'm taking the hook with.
• 24:44
  Kansas State very, very unpopular.
• 24:46
  Yet liability seems to be in their.
• 24:48
  Favor with a good. Rhythm edge so I.
• 24:50
  Got K state plus 7 1/2. So K state. 7 1/2, Vandy +2
• 24:55
  Again, they're down to 1 1/2 and Oklahoma.
• 24:58
  Plus 3 1/2. So that about does.
• 25:00
  It for episode 383 of the All systems Go sports betting
• 25:04
  podcast powered by rhythm. This is the part of the pod
• 25:06
  where we wrap things up, and I start first by saying thank you.
• 25:11
  Thank you for listening, thank you for tuning in, thank you for
• 25:13
  grinding when things aren't going our way.
• 25:15
  Because I know it's easy to tune.
• 25:16
  Into the pod we're handing. Out winners, you know, we're
• 25:19
  having winning days winning. Weeks, but then you have a
• 25:21
  really tough stretch, you hit a. Speed bump you have.
• 25:24
  A You know, four or five bad days here.
• 25:26
  But you guys still TuneIn, you still grind.
• 25:28
  You see the forest amongst. The trees I.
• 25:30
  Appreciate that, that really does mean a lot to me.
• 25:32
  So if you want to help grow the. Pod please could you give it a
• 25:34
  five star review on Spotify or iTunes, click the follow button,
• 25:39
  recommend the pod to a friend. That would all be.
• 25:41
  Very much appreciated. Next if you want to learn more.
• 25:44
  About data-driven betting bankroll.
• 25:45
  Management how to go through the ups and downs.
• 25:47
  Of sports betting, the data side, the emotional side.
• 25:50
  As a better the human. Side I should say then.
• 25:52
  You know what you should do You. Should go to Amazon.com, type in
• 25:56
  the NFL Sharp betting playbook or the.
• 25:58
  Everything guide to sports betting.
• 26:00
  My 2 books very. Proud of both of them if you
• 26:02
  want to grab one or. Both bring the sports.
• 26:04
  Book I will sign them for you. I'll buy you a beer.
• 26:07
  Or ginger ale and we'll. Sweat some games together.
• 26:09
  Next, have you downloaded? Rhythm and Juice Reel yet my two
• 26:12
  favorite sports betting apps. They help me win.
• 26:14
  They're going to. Help you win rhythm.
• 26:16
  Great for their AI back models and predictions.
• 26:18
  Juice Reel where you can sign up to get the.
• 26:20
  Official all systems go. Best bet picks for $4.99 a week.
• 26:25
  You also get the robo. Jackson best bet plays arbitrage
• 26:28
  play Shop for the best line futures sharp mush all.
• 26:31
  Available in the Juice Reel. App so download rhythm download
• 26:35
  juice reel give A5. Star Review in the App Store.
• 26:38
  Next to. Have you?
• 26:39
  Given a shot to odds logic, odds.
• 26:41
  Logic is the best live odds page around and you want.
• 26:44
  To be a data-driven better, you got to have a.
• 26:46
  Live odds page you got to be able to track and monitor the
• 26:49
  market in real time from all the different big and.
• 26:51
  Small books. Where you can easily compare.
• 26:55
  Opening number to current pull up the line.
• 26:57
  History which? Tells you more of the.
• 26:58
  Story and all the moves. In between as well as.
• 27:02
  Seeing as soon as anything. Changes the odds get lit up in
• 27:04
  red and then I believe it is I think orange and then green or
• 27:08
  yellow then green. So if.
• 27:10
  The odds are blank. You know that they've.
• 27:12
  Remained static for over 10 minutes at least.
• 27:14
  But then also shopping for the best price, finding the best
• 27:17
  number. It's so critical when you're
• 27:19
  betting on sports. So if you want to give odds.
• 27:21
  Logic a shot. I love it.
• 27:22
  I think you're going to like it to use this special.
• 27:25
  Link to get a. 7 day free trial and. 50% off your first month.
• 27:29
  That's odds logic.com/josh 123. Of course, lastly.
• 27:36
  Novig I love Novig because you get better juice prices.
• 27:39
  It's a betting exchange. Not a sports book.
• 27:41
  But it's legal in. Over 40.
• 27:43
  Different States and it's. 41 at this point maybe?
• 27:46
  And you deposit your account. Just like you would a sports
• 27:49
  book, but instead of getting. You know, books or.
• 27:52
  Games at -110 -, 115 -, 1. 20 you're almost always getting,
• 27:57
  you know, minus. One O 5. -1 O 7 + 1 O2 which
• 28:00
  means. That you can win at the same
• 28:01
  rate but produce. More of a.
• 28:03
  Profit because you're laying less.
• 28:04
  Juice so if you want to give. Novig a shot.
• 28:07
  Just download the Novig app. And when you?
• 28:10
  Deposit and fund your account. There should be a little promo
• 28:13
  code little blank spot where you can plug in Josh. 123 to get.
• 28:18
  100% deposit match up to 25 bucks.
• 28:21
  So that about does it. Everybody, as always, two final
• 28:24
  thoughts, whether I see you at the Borgata and Atlantic City.
• 28:27
  Twin River in Rhode Island. The brook in New Hampshire in
• 28:29
  New Hampshire, whether it's. At the Encore in Boston.
• 28:34
  Plain Ridge Park Casino MGM. Springfield, the Nash and my
• 28:37
  neck of the woods in New England are out in the desert.
• 28:40
  Where the true grinders get down or Billy Walter sends his number
• 28:43
  runners with lowest juice possible is found at the South
• 28:45
  Point. Or.
• 28:46
  Sweat and sharp contrarian plays jumping in the stadium swimming
• 28:49
  pool. Cashing a big ticket at Circle?
• 28:51
  You're going to walk up. To me, we're just going to shake
• 28:53
  our head, man, You know you. Know the worst part of a losing?
• 28:55
  Streak is when you do your part as a better.
• 28:58
  You got 11 1/2 close 10. And a half 10 again.
• 29:02
  The team on the field just. Could not get it done.
• 29:04
  For us. So hey.
• 29:05
  When you're when. You're tough, stretch.
• 29:06
  When you're cold, you just got to stick with it.
• 29:08
  Keep grinding guys. So as always, if we're coming
• 29:11
  off an O and one or A1 and O, whether on a cold streak like we
• 29:14
  are now or hot streak like we've been before.
• 29:17
  Never get too high. Never get too low.
• 29:19
  We're never as bad as we think when we're cold.
• 29:21
  We're never as good as we think. When we're hot, we're always
• 29:23
  somewhere in the middle, so we just got to.
• 29:24
  Stay the course. Think long term.
• 29:26
  And keep grinding being disciplined with our bankroll
• 29:29
  management. So as always guys, we're.
• 29:31
  Trying to find those games that fit our model against the house
• 29:34
  with the pros. Against the public, Get some
• 29:38
  COV. Again, avoid.
• 29:40
  Parlays, If we can do that, we're.
• 29:41
  Going to be successful sports. Bettors so have a great.
• 29:44
  Tuesday night. Everybody, we'll be right back.
• 29:46
  At it tomorrow. That'll be episode 2. 80 or
• 29:49
  sorry 384 of the all systems go sports.
• 29:52
  Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
• 29:55
  Have a great night everybody go UTEP.
• 29:57
  Let's get some clips and. Golden State Warriors over
• 29:59
  points and let's go BJ Edgecomb. Good luck everybody.
• 30:02
  I'll see you tomorrow.