Latest / Brian Thomas / Daniel Davis Deep Dive

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Daniel Davis Deep Dive · Brian Thomas

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: From fifty five KRC the talk station.
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  Speaker 2: A twenty nine Tuesday, regular listeners know what time it is.
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  Speaker 2: It's time for the Daniel Davis Deep Dive. Retired Lieutenant
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  Speaker 2: Colonel Daniel Davis offering some military analysis and he's got
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  Speaker 2: a lot of resources and inside information a lot of
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  Speaker 2: folks don't have. Welcome back to the fifty five KRC
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  Speaker 2: Morning Show, my friend Daniel Davis. Always a pleasure, always
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  Speaker 2: a pleasure to be here. Brian, I don't know what
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  Speaker 2: word I can sum up. I get this sense that
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  Speaker 2: Donald Trump seems to be frustrated a little bit with
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  Speaker 2: the ongoing situation, the back and forth with the Iranians.
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  Speaker 2: Maybe that's too delicate a way of understanding it, but
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  Speaker 2: he came out threatening to bomb Oman yesterday and I
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  Speaker 2: kind of was puzzling over that because it was recently.
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  Speaker 2: I thought that he was sort of encouraging the Iranians
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  Speaker 2: and the Imanis to sort of results and they're come up.
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  Speaker 2: Maybe Oman, as opposed to Pakistan, could act as a
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  Speaker 2: mediary and come up with some sort of workable solution
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  Speaker 2: for us to ultimately play nicely with the Iranians. But
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  Speaker 2: bombing them does not sound like things are going well.
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  Speaker 2: Daniel Davis, can you break this down from my listening
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  Speaker 2: audience please.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, it's it's It was an eye opener for everybody
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  Speaker 3: to include me because the situation which Iran has been
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  Speaker 3: talking about quite a bit here lately, so that they say, listen,
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  Speaker 3: what we're doing with Oman is only on establishing paths
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  Speaker 3: through this strait of Oman. They specifically say it is
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  Speaker 3: distinct from saying that the strait will open up or
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  Speaker 3: that there'll be any mechanism to do that.
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  Speaker 1: That is something that will be done later.
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  Speaker 3: And they said that has to whether it's open or not,
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  Speaker 3: has to deal with negotiations between Iran and the United States.
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  Speaker 1: So I was a little puzzled by that.
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  Speaker 3: I mean, unless President Trump knows something that we don't
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  Speaker 3: know publicly yet, that maybe they're going to change it.
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  Speaker 3: Because even as the news this morning, Iran is saying
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  Speaker 3: that the deal is now basically agreed to, the arrangement
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  Speaker 3: is agreed to between Iran and Oman, and that they
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  Speaker 3: may announce it as soon as today. But I'm sure
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  Speaker 3: that that announcement is way on what's going to happen
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  Speaker 3: with Washington, because there's no doubt in Oman, which is
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  Speaker 3: this tiny little country in the Middle East, there is
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  Speaker 3: utterly powerless in face of the United States. So if
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  Speaker 3: they do something we don't like, it is not out
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  Speaker 3: of the question that Trump could actually bomb them, and
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  Speaker 3: I think that's what's causing the hesitation here. But the
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  Speaker 3: bigger frustration, I think it's got to be between President
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  Speaker 3: Trump and Iran because you know, even this sixty days
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  Speaker 3: of the so called memorandum of understanding has now elapsed.
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  Speaker 3: And so where are we now. I mean we're literally nowhere.
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  Speaker 3: There's no direct negotiations. There's claims, there's back channel stuff.
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  Speaker 3: President Trump himself made that claim, but there are definitely
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  Speaker 3: no public discussions between the two. So right now we're
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  Speaker 3: not even on a path to anywhere. Everybody's just trying
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  Speaker 3: to figure out what's going on. But there are still
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  Speaker 3: two blockades on that strait, and you know, hardly any
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  Speaker 3: oil or anything else is coming out.
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  Speaker 2: Well, one of the things we observe that the Iranians
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  Speaker 2: woke up to the reality that they can well stop
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  Speaker 2: traffic through the Straight of Horn moves causing massive economic
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  Speaker 2: devastation around the globe and maybe make some money off
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  Speaker 2: of it. It seemed to me that these discussions between
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  Speaker 2: the Iranians and the Monis were to figure out how
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  Speaker 2: they were going to share the slice of the revenue
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  Speaker 2: that they could charge going through the strait, which conflicts
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  Speaker 2: with Trump's demands that reopened the Straight, ignoring bombs and
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  Speaker 2: minds and all that reopened the Straight to international traffic
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  Speaker 2: without having to pay anybody a cent like the way
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  Speaker 2: it used to be. Are the omanis looking for a
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  Speaker 2: slice of the action here, recognizing an opportunity that perhaps
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  Speaker 2: didn't exist before.
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  Speaker 3: To me, and my understanding is that's that's what they're
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  Speaker 3: considering as well. But I think that the pressure that
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  Speaker 3: we're putting on, and clearly there's a lot, is one
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  Speaker 3: of the reasons why this hasn't happened. That the Iranian
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  Speaker 3: said a week ago that they had had the outlines
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  Speaker 3: of their understanding with ira Oman but had never announced anything.
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  Speaker 3: And I think that's the reason why, because they're trying
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  Speaker 3: to figure out what they're going to end up doing.
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  Speaker 3: The original comment was that in the MoU itself, was
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  Speaker 3: that Iran and Oman would figure out the administrative control
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  Speaker 3: for safety and whatever else through the minefields and everything
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  Speaker 3: else in the Strait. During the sixty days and then
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  Speaker 3: they would negotiate something separate after that, and Iran has
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  Speaker 3: never said anything except for we will retain control the strait,
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  Speaker 3: we will charge a feed going forward.
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  Speaker 1: They've been unapologetic about that.
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  Speaker 3: What ira Oman is supposed to do and how they're
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  Speaker 3: going to be responsible for that is unknown. It's just speculation.
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  Speaker 3: So until they come out with a deal, I guess
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  Speaker 3: we just don't know.
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  Speaker 2: And in the meantime, we continue to keep the Iranian
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  Speaker 2: ports shut correct, That is correct, Yeah, And that's the
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  Speaker 2: economic warfare that seems to be the default strategy at
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  Speaker 2: this point, trying to reap out enough, impose enough hardship
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  Speaker 2: on the Iranian people and the Iranian government that they'll capitulate.
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  Speaker 2: A friend of mine was talking the other day about this,
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  Speaker 2: that whole concept, and apparently the Iranians are a very
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  Speaker 2: calloused people when it comes to dealing with economic hardships.
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  Speaker 2: And he reminded me of how bad things there were,
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  Speaker 2: how bad things were there during the Iran Iraq War.
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  Speaker 2: The people of Iran are kind of used to living
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  Speaker 2: in poor economic conditions, and I think the leadership in
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  Speaker 2: Iran seems to have taken an opinion that listen, we're
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  Speaker 2: used to suffering. We can handle it, and we're going
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  Speaker 2: to live through anything you heap down upon us economically.
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  Speaker 1: That is a fact.
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  Speaker 3: I've talked to so many people who had been on
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  Speaker 3: the ground just recently, just yesterday, another Western reporter who
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  Speaker 3: had been on the ground recently in Iran, A couple
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  Speaker 3: of them. Actually, there was a report from Al Jazeera
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  Speaker 3: I saw literally just before coming on here about what
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  Speaker 3: the life is lacking. And when you see videos and things,
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  Speaker 3: it looks like it's normal. It looks like a normal country.
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  Speaker 3: Things are a little more expensive, some things are a
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  Speaker 3: lot more expensive. But as you say, Iran has been
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  Speaker 3: used to doing this for their entire existence, all forty
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  Speaker 3: seven years of it, and especially during that the Iran
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  Speaker 3: Iraq War period, where not only were they having economic privations,
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  Speaker 3: but they were also being bombed relentlessly and they were
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  Speaker 3: suffering hundreds of thousands of casualties and they just never
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  Speaker 3: given in. This is part of their DNA, So this
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  Speaker 3: is nothing new for them. And when we're talking about
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  Speaker 3: who can endure the economic pain the longest, don't get
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  Speaker 3: in a fight with Iran on that one, because we're
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  Speaker 3: not gonna win it. And today we see diesel crack
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  Speaker 3: has risen to a two decade high, which means all
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  Speaker 3: the economic activity is now going to also concurrently start
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  Speaker 3: rising more than it has already. And then you add
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  Speaker 3: a diesel I'm sorry, jet fuel to that problem. All
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  Speaker 3: of this is exacerbated by the Strait the dual blockades
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  Speaker 3: being in place, and so that's hitting the entire global
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  Speaker 3: economy and there's gonna be some real shortages here just
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  Speaker 3: in a matter.
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  Speaker 1: Of two or three weeks, especially in Europe.
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  Speaker 3: So if we're trying to get into a chicken fight
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  Speaker 3: or over that one, I don't know that's gonna work
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  Speaker 3: out well for our side well.
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  Speaker 2: And the Irridians are painfully aware of the political reality
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  Speaker 2: is going on the ground over here in the United States,
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  Speaker 2: with the November elections fast approaching. I think, by what
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  Speaker 2: you have said and by all accounts from everything I've read,
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  Speaker 2: they certainly can withstand any economic hardships through November, and
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  Speaker 2: they believe that it was near to their benefit, not
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  Speaker 2: just because it'll you know, it'll be a slap in
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  Speaker 2: Trump's face if he loses the House and Senate, but
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  Speaker 2: also the potential that if the Democrats take over, they
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  Speaker 2: might vote us out of the war by defunding the
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  Speaker 2: conflict or otherwise passing Warpowers resolution saying it's not authorized. That's possible,
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  Speaker 2: isn't it.
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  Speaker 3: It is possible, especially if the economic pain gets high enough.
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  Speaker 3: I mean, if it gets high enough, even some Republicans
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  Speaker 3: would probably vote in.
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  Speaker 2: That override of VETO because the war is so damn unpopular.
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  Speaker 2: That's my thought.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, and we'll see what happens afterwards.
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  Speaker 3: I think that there is some concern in Iran that
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  Speaker 3: the waiting at Deil after the midterms would then actually
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  Speaker 3: free Trump up to go back to combat operations. And
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  Speaker 3: there was a comment this morning by Golly Boff, their
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  Speaker 3: senior negotiator who's also the speaker of their parliament, that
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  Speaker 3: he implied, you know what, if you guys don't make
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  Speaker 3: a deal on this and get this straight back open up,
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  Speaker 3: we may have to take action of our own, which
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  Speaker 3: implies they themselves may return to combat strike.
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  Speaker 1: So we're not out of the woods yet.
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  Speaker 3: It's not that they've just said we're going to try
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  Speaker 3: to outlast you, because they're implying they could be taking
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  Speaker 3: military action themselves.
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  Speaker 1: So this could explode even before November.
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  Speaker 2: Well and exacerbate the already high price of gasoline and
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  Speaker 2: diesel fuel because they started hitting all the other oil
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  Speaker 2: producing nations ones perhaps with our base in it, then
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  Speaker 2: we've got they know, they got a major economic exacerbating
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  Speaker 2: ability there with some bombs real quick here in pivoting over,
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  Speaker 2: I kind of puzzled over Donald Trump's not praise for
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  Speaker 2: the North Korean leader, but talking about what a decent
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  Speaker 2: guy is the same guy that sent fifty thousand troops
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  Speaker 2: to Ukraine as well as the say to Russia, and
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  Speaker 2: the same North Korean leader who has been supplying at
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  Speaker 2: least from my understanding, drones and equipment to the Iranians.
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  Speaker 2: Yet he started he's very upset with the South Koreans.
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  Speaker 2: I know he articulated because the South Koreans didn't bother
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  Speaker 2: to assist in the conflict with Iran. That's what he
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  Speaker 2: said yesterday. Part of me wanted to think he suspended
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  Speaker 2: these wargames with South Korea because maybe we've talked about
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  Speaker 2: this before. Munitions shortages, we'd have to use a lot
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  Speaker 2: up doing wargames, and maybe we just don't have them
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  Speaker 2: despair and the money that it costs to run wargames.
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  Speaker 2: Your thoughts on that before we part company. Daniel Davis.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, I was frankly puzzled by that as well,
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  Speaker 3: because it's one thing, I mean, just making a decision
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  Speaker 3: like that because of our ammunition needs.
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  Speaker 1: You can say we'll just.
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  Speaker 3: Do it dry fire we call it where you just
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  Speaker 3: don't use any ammunition, or you can just say administrative.
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  Speaker 1: For yeah, let's just cut this one back.
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  Speaker 3: But the fact that he went out publicly and said
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  Speaker 3: he literally took the side of North Korea by saying
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  Speaker 3: that the South Korean military and the US made him mad,
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  Speaker 3: and so he ordered the reduction of the drills. I
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  Speaker 3: honestly don't have a good explanation for why he would
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  Speaker 3: choose to do it.
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  Speaker 1: In that way. I just don't.
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  Speaker 2: It's puzzling that you said that makes me feel better,
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  Speaker 2: Daniel Davis, because I couldn't figure it out either. I thought, well,
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  Speaker 2: Daniel's coming on, he'll make some sense out of it. Well,
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  Speaker 2: we find ourselves in an inexplicable period of time in
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  Speaker 2: this particular conflict, and around the world it's going crazy.
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  Speaker 2: We always got Daniel Davis with a deep dive every
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  Speaker 2: Tuesday at eight thirty here in the fifty five carsy
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  Speaker 2: morning show. You can find him throughout the week on
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  Speaker 2: his wherever you find your podcast. Thank you so much
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  Speaker 2: for your time and you're honesty today, Daniel Davis. I
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  Speaker 2: truly appreciate.
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  Speaker 1: It a pleasure. Man. See you next week.
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  Speaker 2: You take care of yourself. I'll look forward to it.
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  Speaker 2: Eight forty right now