Latest / a16z AI Policy Brief / Early Signals on AI, Hiring, and the Workforce

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Early Signals on AI, Hiring, and the Workforce · a16z AI Policy Brief

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You see some jobs go away,
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some jobs emerge,
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most jobs end up changing in some capacity.
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SPEAKER_00: That's what's happening now.
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We're seeing an increase of 40% in the share of companies with
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AI-specific jobs.
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SPEAKER_00: 70% of companies had moved beyond the pilot phase of AI integration.
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SPEAKER_00: 91% of people told us roles have already changed within their companies.
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SPEAKER_00: Policymakers are hearing from big banks or even big tech
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SPEAKER_00: Nonstop, they want to hear from, say, Little Tech.
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SPEAKER_00: They want to hear from the startups.
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Make sure you have a seat at the table because that regulatory
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uncertainty or not
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SPEAKER_00: knowing what's coming out of Washington,
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SPEAKER_00: if it could have material impact on your business,
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SPEAKER_00: that's a pretty big problem.
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SPEAKER_00: You need to see that coming.
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SPEAKER_01: Welcome back to the A16Z AI Policy Brief.
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SPEAKER_01: Today's conversation is with Nick Cattino, Global Head of Policy at Deal.
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SPEAKER_01: There's broad agreement that AI will reshape the workforce,
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SPEAKER_01: but it's less clear what these changes will look like in practice.
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SPEAKER_01: How will they play out in different sectors of our economy?
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SPEAKER_01: What will they mean for future career opportunities?
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SPEAKER_01: And how will they influence broader economic trends?
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SPEAKER_01: Deal brings a unique firsthand perspective to these questions,
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since its HR and payroll platform is used by 35,000 customers
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and 1.5 million
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SPEAKER_01: workers in more than 150 countries.
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SPEAKER_01: In this conversation,
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Nick explains what Deal is seeing as AI starts to transform
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work around the world.
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For instance,
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he talks about recent research that Deal conducted,
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which shows three key things.
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First,
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a 40% increase in the share of companies opening new AI roles
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in 2025.
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SPEAKER_01: Second,
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SPEAKER_01: over 70,000 AI trainer roles across more than 600 organizations,
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SPEAKER_01: with nearly 60% of these roles based in the United States.
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SPEAKER_01: And then finally,
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SPEAKER_01: AI trainer positions growing 283% globally in 2025,
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SPEAKER_01: making it the fastest growing global role on Deals platform.
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We discuss what smart policy can do to help workers build new
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skills and prepare
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SPEAKER_01: students for an AI-driven economy.
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And we also talk about Nick's deep expertise building public
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policy functions at
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SPEAKER_01: fast-growing startups,
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SPEAKER_01: why he's drawn to little tech,
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SPEAKER_01: and what other startups should keep in mind if they want to engage with
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SPEAKER_01: policymakers.
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SPEAKER_01: Thanks for listening.
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SPEAKER_02: Nick Cattino, Global Head of Public Policy at Deal.
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SPEAKER_02: Thanks so much for coming on the A16Z AI Policy Brief.
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SPEAKER_02: Hey, Matt.
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SPEAKER_02: Thanks for having me.
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SPEAKER_02: I'm excited to be here.
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SPEAKER_02: So first things first, it would be great to have a sense of what Deal is.
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SPEAKER_02: So tell me a little bit about the company.
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SPEAKER_00: Yeah, deal to payroll and HR platform.
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SPEAKER_00: We help companies hire, manage, and pay their workforce globally.
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We have 37,000 and counting companies on our platform and one
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and a half million workers.
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SPEAKER_00: Customers include big tech and AI companies like Anthropic.
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SPEAKER_00: Reddit, Shopify, we have enterprise customers like Coca-Cola and DuPont.
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SPEAKER_00: But a real bread and butter are startups and SMBs.
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SPEAKER_00: Those that are expanding globally to new markets for the first time.
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SPEAKER_00: And then we're sitting here in Washington, D.C.
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SPEAKER_00: at foreign companies that want to invest here, hire American workers.
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SPEAKER_00: That's really the value prop we offer.
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SPEAKER_00: And what makes us unique,
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SPEAKER_00: and particularly why I'm excited to have this conversation,
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SPEAKER_00: is the real-time employment data that provides.
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We have access to seeing how companies are expanding to new
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markets,
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their hiring trends.
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Lots of stuff very relevant right now as we sit in Washington
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and talk about AI and
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SPEAKER_00: its impact on jobs and society.
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SPEAKER_02: So I'm sure there's a ton we could talk about on the business side,
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SPEAKER_02: but this is a policy podcast.
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SPEAKER_02: So I'm really interested in understanding
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SPEAKER_02: Why would Deal hire a policy person?
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SPEAKER_02: What is the value that you're providing to the firm?
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SPEAKER_00: Well, we're growing fast.
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SPEAKER_00: So I joined two and a half years ago.
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SPEAKER_00: We're only six years old, going on seven now.
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SPEAKER_00: As a company,
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SPEAKER_00: you already hit a billion in revenue and lofty valuation,
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SPEAKER_00: but really it's because of the scale of the problem we're solving.
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SPEAKER_00: Historically,
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it was really hard for companies to expand to new markets and
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hire and manage their
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SPEAKER_00: workforce on a single platform.
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SPEAKER_00: They would have all these different systems all around the world.
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SPEAKER_00: Now, because of a deal, they can use us for everything.
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SPEAKER_00: And ultimately, we're helping them
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SPEAKER_00: with compliance and how they hire, manage, and pay that workforce.
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And there's a realization within the company that we have a
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responsibility not just
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SPEAKER_00: to tell our customers what the law is in markets,
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SPEAKER_00: but we can actively partner with governments sometimes to shape it.
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But also to help answer questions for our customers and just be
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ever present.
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SPEAKER_00: So really it's a reflection of our growth and the problem we're solving.
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SPEAKER_00: We recently expanded to having two people on the policy team.
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SPEAKER_02: Congratulations.
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SPEAKER_00: So someone in Europe, myself here in the U.S.
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And then I've had the opportunity here during my time at Deal
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to travel the world
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SPEAKER_00: and talk to governments and introduce them to the company,
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SPEAKER_00: share with them what we're hearing from customers,
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SPEAKER_00: our employment data,
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SPEAKER_00: trying to be a resource and a partner to them.
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SPEAKER_00: And then ultimately,
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I do joke internally sometimes that everyone at the company
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actually works in
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SPEAKER_00: policy.
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SPEAKER_00: Because everything we put out,
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SPEAKER_00: our product,
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SPEAKER_00: the services,
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SPEAKER_00: if you use that,
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SPEAKER_00: and that's true for any of your portfolio companies,
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you're ultimately putting yourself in front of those external
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stakeholders like government.
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So everyone has a role when it comes to policy or government
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affairs within your
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respective company because you're creating what people are
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seeing and using,
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SPEAKER_00: and that ultimately has an influence on policymaking.
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SPEAKER_02: I'm curious just about how you decide how to allocate your time.
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Because I think when people hear like a billion dollars in
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annual revenue,
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SPEAKER_02: that sounds like large company.
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SPEAKER_02: We're focused at A16Z on little tech companies.
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SPEAKER_02: And I think,
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SPEAKER_02: obviously,
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SPEAKER_02: when you've had the success that you've had,
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SPEAKER_02: you're sort of growing out of a little phase.
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SPEAKER_02: But you're still really different from lots of big tech companies,
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some of the ones that sort of are typically in the front page
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of the newspaper.
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SPEAKER_02: Right.
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SPEAKER_02: When you think about tackling policy issues,
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SPEAKER_02: how are you deciding what you have bandwidth to do?
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Like one example is like there's a lot of activity now at the
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state level,
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SPEAKER_02: like more than a thousand AI bills.
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Are those the kinds of is that something that you're able to
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track with a lot of
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depth and closeness or is that something that is really hard
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when you're a team of
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SPEAKER_02: the size,
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SPEAKER_02: the size that you are?
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SPEAKER_00: Prioritization is the right question.
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SPEAKER_00: I often talk about ruthless prioritization.
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SPEAKER_00: You need to focus on where you can drive the most impact.
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SPEAKER_00: That's not always necessarily tracking.
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SPEAKER_00: There's a lot of people that do that,
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but I view my responsibility and a policy function's
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responsibility as building
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strategic relationships with policymakers and regulators and
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governments in tier
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SPEAKER_00: one markets.
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And you're explaining to people internally because they often
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ask,
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what is policy?
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SPEAKER_00: Do you write internal policies for the company?
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SPEAKER_00: No,
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SPEAKER_00: our responsibility is to build those relationships,
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SPEAKER_00: proactively shape our brand,
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and ultimately influence laws and regulations and policymaking
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on behalf of our
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SPEAKER_00: customers and the broader ecosystem.
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SPEAKER_00: And the way I organize my time,
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SPEAKER_00: I try to think about proactive,
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SPEAKER_00: reactive,
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SPEAKER_00: and then thought leadership and content.
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So the proactive is where,
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you know,
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we identify opportunities to go work with governments.
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SPEAKER_00: Like we signed an MOU, a strategic partnership with the U.S.
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Commerce Department a year and a half ago because they
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recognize that deal helps
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SPEAKER_00: facilitate trade and investment.
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SPEAKER_00: So we did a series of events around the world and here in the U.S.
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SPEAKER_00: with the Commerce Department.
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You know,
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reactive is when there are some regulatory challenges that
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emerge and you want to go –
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Meet with governments and explain the role you're playing and
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how you operate and
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SPEAKER_00: just be open and honest.
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And in the thought leadership and content,
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I started my career in journalism,
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actually.
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And so that's always one of the most fun parts of the brand
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building and like the
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AI and workforce policy report we did in the fall and the
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research and data-driven
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SPEAKER_00: storytelling that we're doing.
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SPEAKER_00: media, like what you and I are doing right now.
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And so I try to prioritize my time in tier one markets with the
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right stakeholders.
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And it's really important that you're ultimately an external
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rep of the company so
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SPEAKER_00: you don't spend too much time internally.
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So let's talk a little bit more about the report that you were
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alluding to
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Before we get into the meat of it,
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I really want to understand the specifics.
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SPEAKER_02: Let's talk about it in the context of prioritization.
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Why was a report on workforce trends something that you thought
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was a good way for
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SPEAKER_02: you leading policy at Deal to spend your time on?
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SPEAKER_00: Yeah, it's a conversation driver.
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SPEAKER_00: And it's important to know,
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SPEAKER_00: to the prioritization point,
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SPEAKER_00: that smart companies work with governments.
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I think there's often a hesitancy to talk to regulators or
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governments too early
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SPEAKER_00: when a company's founded because you're scared of what there is.
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SPEAKER_00: And that's part of the point of why Deal created my role.
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It's a recognition that we're larger now and we want to be a
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proactive,
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positive partner.
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SPEAKER_02: The phrase that I always heard was, don't break into jail.
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SPEAKER_02: You don't want to go and reach out when you don't have an issue.
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But it seems to me like that's kind of a mindset that's
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shifting a little bit,
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SPEAKER_02: that companies are now saying like,
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The risk is outweighed by the benefit of showing that you want
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to be a responsible player.
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SPEAKER_02: You want to be in dialogue with government.
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SPEAKER_02: You see the opportunity for companies to sell to government.
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SPEAKER_02: Sounds like that's what you guys are saying.
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SPEAKER_00: You put it great.
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SPEAKER_00: It can be an opportunity driver,
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SPEAKER_00: a growth driver,
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SPEAKER_00: and it can help mitigate risks by being proactive with governments.
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Another phrase that you used to hear a lot was it's better to
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ask for forgiveness
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SPEAKER_00: than permission.
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SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
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And I think that flips a little bit as a company grows to a
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certain size.
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SPEAKER_00: They realize, you know, governments are already paying attention to you.
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SPEAKER_00: You're already on their radar, so you might as well engage proactively.
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SPEAKER_00: And so right now,
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SPEAKER_00: every government around the world is talking about AI,
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SPEAKER_00: and they want to understand how it's going to impact their workforce,
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SPEAKER_00: among other things,
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SPEAKER_00: and that's really the role we can play.
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SPEAKER_00: And so our policy report that started as a passion project,
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SPEAKER_00: I was in Singapore about a year and a half ago,
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SPEAKER_00: spoke at their AI summit,
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And I had a talk track on some of the changes that were
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happening in AI regulation
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SPEAKER_00: and policymaking from 2024 to 2025.
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SPEAKER_00: Yep.
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SPEAKER_00: My premise was that a lot of that was driven by a change in the U.S.
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SPEAKER_00: administration and their approach.
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SPEAKER_00: And it resonated really well.
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SPEAKER_00: I could feel the audience...
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SPEAKER_00: at that event,
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SPEAKER_00: during my presentation,
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SPEAKER_00: during the panels I did,
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SPEAKER_00: just really hanging on to my words.
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SPEAKER_00: And so that's what kicked off on my flight home,
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SPEAKER_00: couldn't sleep,
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SPEAKER_00: I'm on my laptop,
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SPEAKER_00: and I started jotting down some of the things I had been saying,
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SPEAKER_00: some of it off the cuff,
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SPEAKER_00: and that led to not just the narrative,
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SPEAKER_00: and we can get into some of that,
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SPEAKER_00: but also then pulling deals data.
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SPEAKER_00: And what are we seeing?
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SPEAKER_00: What are the trends that are happening?
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SPEAKER_00: How are jobs being created, being eliminated?
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SPEAKER_00: What are the new roles we're seeing?
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SPEAKER_00: And then what are some of our policy recommendations?
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SPEAKER_00: So it started off as a passion project,
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SPEAKER_00: but it ended up as a pretty comprehensive report we were able to take to
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SPEAKER_00: governments and use that to lead conversations.
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SPEAKER_00: And as much as we can,
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kick off some data-driven partnerships where we would love to
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be a resource.
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SPEAKER_00: We're seeing...
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SPEAKER_00: how AI companies are expanding and hiring,
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SPEAKER_00: how industries are changing jobs,
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SPEAKER_00: say less entry-level hiring,
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SPEAKER_00: how they're creating new roles,
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SPEAKER_00: and we're sharing that proactively.
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So obviously there's lots of anxiety about the potential
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disruption in labor markets.
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SPEAKER_02: And that can come in a lot of different forms,
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SPEAKER_02: but I think the general idea is AI is coming for our jobs.
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SPEAKER_02: It's coming for your job.
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SPEAKER_02: You won't be employed in the future because of AI.
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SPEAKER_02: What were you seeing in the data?
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SPEAKER_02: Does it give you hints at how to think about answering that question?
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SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I don't buy that premise, and you may not either.
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I think ultimately we've seen throughout history there are
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technological changes
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SPEAKER_00: from automation to even the impacts of global trade,
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SPEAKER_00: and you see some jobs go away.
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SPEAKER_00: Some jobs emerge.
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SPEAKER_00: Most jobs end up changing in some capacity.
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SPEAKER_00: That's what's happening now.
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SPEAKER_00: The difference may be the time scale.
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SPEAKER_00: Automation may have taken many decades.
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SPEAKER_00: It might be what automation did over 100 years, what trade did over 50.
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SPEAKER_00: AI could do in the next 10 years.
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SPEAKER_00: So that is scary to a lot of people, and rightfully.
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SPEAKER_00: And so we understand,
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SPEAKER_00: you see announcements coming out,
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SPEAKER_00: that you have those entry-level,
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SPEAKER_00: repetitive tasks that can be automated,
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SPEAKER_00: are starting to be automated pretty quickly by companies.
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SPEAKER_00: You see new types of jobs emerging, AI tutors, AI trainers.
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SPEAKER_00: And so we commissioned research.
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SPEAKER_00: We have our own data and lots of interesting stuff we're finding in that.
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SPEAKER_00: But we also commissioned research into 22 different countries.
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We surveyed 5,500 business and IT leaders about the impact of
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AI on their companies
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SPEAKER_00: and their workforce.
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SPEAKER_00: And this was the end of last year, which already feels stale, by the way.
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Here we are a few months into the year because everything's
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moving so fast.
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SPEAKER_00: But what we found was pretty astonishing.
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We found 70% of companies had moved beyond the pilot phase of
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AI integration.
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SPEAKER_03: Mm-hmm.
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And so now it was actually embedded within their companies in
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some capacity.
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SPEAKER_00: 91% of people told us roles have already changed within their companies.
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SPEAKER_00: That was probably the stat that stood out most to me.
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SPEAKER_00: And then we also saw two-thirds of entry-level jobs are being impacted.
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SPEAKER_00: So again, this was 5,500 business leaders across 2,200 countries.
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SPEAKER_00: Country by country, the results were pretty consistent there.
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SPEAKER_00: AI is now within their companies.
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SPEAKER_00: They're widely using it.
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SPEAKER_00: 91% told us roles were changing,
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and two-thirds says it's probably going to impact as slow their
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entry-level hiring.
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SPEAKER_00: So the changes from AI are here.
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SPEAKER_02: And then,
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SPEAKER_02: I mean,
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SPEAKER_02: you said in general,
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you sort of think of the story that we will tell ourselves at
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some point in the
13:43
future about the impact of AI on the labor force is that it
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will be a positive one.
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SPEAKER_02: this is some preliminary data you're seeing that there will be a change.
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Are you seeing things in the data that suggest to you that your
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positive outlook
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SPEAKER_02: will actually be borne out?
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SPEAKER_00: I think so.
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SPEAKER_00: The types of jobs that are emerging,
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SPEAKER_00: mentioned earlier,
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SPEAKER_00: AI tutors,
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SPEAKER_00: AI trainers,
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we're seeing an increase of 40% in the share of companies with
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AI-specific jobs
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SPEAKER_02: now.
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SPEAKER_02: So it's not that jobs are disappearing,
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SPEAKER_02: it's more the emphasis on the shift,
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SPEAKER_02: not yes or no,
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SPEAKER_02: but shifting.
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SPEAKER_00: So look at the World Economic Forum.
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SPEAKER_00: Every year they put out their jobs report, gets a lot of attention.
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SPEAKER_00: They found something like 93 million jobs would be eliminated by 2030.
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Not all due to AI,
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other factors as well,
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but they found almost double would be created.
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SPEAKER_00: And you've seen this in past shifts.
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SPEAKER_00: I mentioned automation and trade.
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Now,
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the unfortunate part of that,
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and I spent a decade up on Capitol Hill.
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I've been in tech for seven-plus years,
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but spent a decade working in politics.
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And the perception of trade was always that while the benefits
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are widely shared,
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SPEAKER_00: the pain is often very concentrated.
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SPEAKER_00: And it's the same thing here, I would expect.
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There might be types of people,
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those that don't have the ability to develop the AI fluency.
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They're with companies not supporting them in their journey to
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move to AI integrated roles.
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SPEAKER_00: So there are going to be some negative impacts for people.
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SPEAKER_00: That's why it's so important that from schools and universities
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to the workplace,
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to even the government,
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that there is a focus on AI adoption and AI fluency.
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SPEAKER_00: That'll help protect against some of that.
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But we should understand the concerns about job losses are not
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manufactured.
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SPEAKER_00: Some jobs will go away, but a lot more will be created.
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SPEAKER_00: Technology has the ability to make life better.
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SPEAKER_00: We've seen that throughout history, and I think it will.
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There are really difficult jobs that people had 100 years ago
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or 50 years ago.
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SPEAKER_00: You think of a picture of a steel mill.
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SPEAKER_00: 100 years ago to turn into the 20th century,
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there were people all over the floor in some cases actually
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turning the molten
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SPEAKER_00: steel.
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My own great grandfather died in a coal mine accident now 90
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plus years ago.
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Those are difficult jobs that people had really hard taxing not
16:06
for much money.
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SPEAKER_00: And so if technology produces better jobs,
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SPEAKER_00: which it has,
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SPEAKER_00: there's no reason to think that trend won't continue.
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SPEAKER_02: So this report tries to do a bunch of different things.
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SPEAKER_00: Yes.
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outline the general issue you provide this data but then you
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also have this policy
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recommendation section so what do you think and you seem like
16:23
the perfect person to
16:24
blend all these things you're at deal now you're looking at the
16:26
data you're
16:27
thinking about what the company's objectives are but then you
16:29
also as you said
16:29
you've got this background on the hill so making this
16:32
transition from data to
16:33
policy recommendations is a natural one for you what do you
16:37
recommend like what's
16:38
the what is the right set of things for congress and the
16:40
administration and maybe
16:40
SPEAKER_02: even states to do
16:42
Yeah,
16:42
the way we're thinking about AI policy at Deal,
16:45
first,
16:45
we help our companies comply.
16:47
SPEAKER_00: So we try to stay relatively neutral,
16:50
SPEAKER_00: whether the law is viewed as good or bad,
16:53
SPEAKER_00: complicated or easy.
16:54
SPEAKER_00: We're ultimately helping them.
16:56
SPEAKER_00: We do think it makes sense to be easier.
16:57
SPEAKER_00: But the way governments have been looking at AI regulation,
17:01
SPEAKER_00: or at least AI initiatives now,
17:03
SPEAKER_00: I should say,
17:04
SPEAKER_00: over the last year focuses primarily on talent.
17:09
SPEAKER_00: industry and infrastructure.
17:11
SPEAKER_00: And so you see governments talking about,
17:12
SPEAKER_00: well,
17:12
SPEAKER_00: we need to make sure we have domestic AI talent,
17:15
SPEAKER_00: they're fluent,
17:16
SPEAKER_00: they use AI,
17:17
SPEAKER_00: we succeed.
17:18
SPEAKER_00: The industry,
17:18
SPEAKER_00: we need to support our startups and businesses,
17:21
SPEAKER_00: help them integrate AI into their services,
17:23
SPEAKER_00: and infrastructure,
17:24
SPEAKER_00: chips and energy.
17:25
SPEAKER_00: So we're thinking a little bit about it in the same way.
17:27
SPEAKER_00: So on the talent side,
17:29
SPEAKER_00: It is important that governments support their workers,
17:33
SPEAKER_00: and they build that fluency,
17:36
SPEAKER_00: and they make sure that there's the skills there in place.
17:41
SPEAKER_00: Upskilling exists, needed now more than ever.
17:44
SPEAKER_00: We also have a mobility service within Deal.
17:47
High-skilled migration can plug that skills gap,
17:50
so we've always been pretty outspoken.
17:52
SPEAKER_00: In our support for companies, you should want the best and brightest
17:55
within your countries,
17:57
and there's certainly an opportunity to attract AI talent.
18:00
SPEAKER_00: So that's certainly part of the talent aspect.
18:03
SPEAKER_00: When you think about industry,
18:06
SPEAKER_00: that's making sure startups and SMBs have the resources they need.
18:10
So a lot of governments have proposed grants or technical
18:14
assistance to make sure
18:15
SPEAKER_00: that those resources are in place.
18:18
SPEAKER_00: And then finally, on the infrastructure,
18:21
SPEAKER_00: which yes, governments are looking at chips and energy.
18:24
SPEAKER_00: We're thinking about it in terms of governance as well.
18:27
Companies do have a responsible to have an AI policy for
18:30
responsible use in place,
18:31
making sure the technology that they're developing is
18:34
ultimately used correctly.
18:37
And so our policy recommendations try to align with the way
18:40
governments are
18:40
SPEAKER_00: thinking about it,
18:41
SPEAKER_00: the talent,
18:41
SPEAKER_00: industry,
18:42
SPEAKER_00: and infrastructure.
18:43
SPEAKER_02: So let's go a little deeper on the policy recommendations.
18:45
SPEAKER_02: We've advocated in lots of different contexts,
18:48
SPEAKER_02: and it applies in this one as well,
18:50
that we should really focus at least initially on using
18:53
existing laws to achieve
18:54
SPEAKER_02: what we want to achieve in an AI world.
18:57
It may be that we need to do various different things to adjust
19:00
existing laws or
19:01
SPEAKER_02: plug holes,
19:01
SPEAKER_02: but at least as a starting point.
19:03
we should focus on how can we use the laws that are already on
19:05
the books to protect
19:07
SPEAKER_02: against harms or promote good,
19:09
SPEAKER_02: positive things in an AI world.
19:11
So I would love to get your take on kind of what are the laws
19:16
on the books?
19:16
SPEAKER_02: What are the policy things that exist right now,
19:19
the policy tools that exist right now to help support workers
19:22
in a transition to an
19:23
SPEAKER_02: AI economy?
19:24
SPEAKER_00: Yeah,
19:24
SPEAKER_00: that's a good point,
19:25
SPEAKER_00: and that's often lost on people,
19:26
SPEAKER_00: that just because there's no federal AI law or regulation right now,
19:32
SPEAKER_00: it doesn't mean that there aren't applicable laws and regulations.
19:35
SPEAKER_00: There's a lot of them.
19:36
You think about everything from existing privacy laws at the
19:39
state level to
19:41
SPEAKER_00: anti-discrimination,
19:42
SPEAKER_00: employment law,
19:44
SPEAKER_00: consumer protections,
19:45
SPEAKER_00: workplace safety.
19:46
There's a lot of laws and regulations in place today that are
19:50
highly applicable to
19:51
SPEAKER_00: the AI tools being built,
19:53
SPEAKER_00: even whistleblower.
19:54
SPEAKER_00: if there were to be something identified that that's happening.
19:58
SPEAKER_00: So that certainty is what companies need to operate under.
20:04
SPEAKER_00: It does not mean that there's an absence of AI laws.
20:07
SPEAKER_00: While everything's being debated,
20:09
I think companies shouldn't get too distracted by seeing a bill
20:12
introduced.
20:14
SPEAKER_00: That comes up a lot in our company.
20:16
SPEAKER_00: A customer will see that a random bill was introduced in a state
20:20
SPEAKER_00: or in Congress and they want to know what it means for them,
20:23
SPEAKER_00: anyone can introduce a bill that's different than a law or regulation.
20:27
So understand what's on the books now and how it fits into what
20:30
you're developing,
20:31
SPEAKER_00: and that's your roadmap.
20:33
SPEAKER_02: In the conversations that we've had on this topic,
20:35
SPEAKER_02: one thing that has been,
20:37
I think there have been actually two things that have been
20:38
really striking.
20:39
SPEAKER_02: One is how bipartisan the conversations are.
20:42
So Republicans and Democrats,
20:44
at least to me,
20:44
both seem concerned about the disruption.
20:46
SPEAKER_02: And then the second component is
20:49
SPEAKER_02: These conversations,
20:50
SPEAKER_02: I think,
20:50
are less adversarial than others because really both sides are
20:54
trying to figure out
20:55
what is the set of things that we could propose that would
20:58
support workers in the
20:59
SPEAKER_02: event that they're disrupted.
21:00
I'm curious about what the experience has been like for you
21:04
when you're taking this
21:04
SPEAKER_02: report to the Hill,
21:06
SPEAKER_02: to the administration.
21:08
It seems like you do a lot of international travel as well,
21:10
so to foreign governments.
21:12
How receptive are they to the policy recommendations that
21:14
you've included?
21:15
SPEAKER_00: First, the shift has been pretty striking from 2024 to 2025.
21:19
SPEAKER_00: Under the Biden administration,
21:20
there was a focus on AI safety and governance and avoiding that
21:23
Terminator-like
21:24
SPEAKER_00: outcome.
21:25
And then a lot of other countries had a similar approach,
21:28
EU with the AI Act.
21:29
SPEAKER_00: And you saw proposals elsewhere that focused really on AI safety.
21:35
2025,
21:35
President Trump and his administration start focusing more on
21:38
domestic competitiveness.
21:39
SPEAKER_00: Mm-hmm.
21:40
SPEAKER_00: And countries pretty quickly followed suit.
21:43
And you see even the EU now is,
21:45
you could say,
21:45
rolling back parts of the EU AI Act.
21:48
So that change in the policymaking environment is as stark on
21:53
any issue as I can remember.
21:54
SPEAKER_02: How does it affect what you're actually,
21:57
SPEAKER_02: like the issues that you're wrestling with here in the report?
21:59
SPEAKER_00: Yeah,
22:00
SPEAKER_00: it was good timing for us in the sense that,
22:02
SPEAKER_00: you know,
22:04
SPEAKER_00: we were in helping our customers comply mode in 2024.
22:08
We really started thinking about how we could lean in on behalf
22:10
of our customers,
22:11
SPEAKER_00: how we could leverage that data to help educate policymakers in 2025.
22:15
SPEAKER_00: So we've really proactively engaged.
22:19
SPEAKER_00: And, you know, it's those, the hiring trends is what's really important.
22:24
exciting for a lot of governments outside the US,
22:26
particularly in Asia Pacific recently.
22:28
Governments were excited to see that some of these big tech and
22:31
AI companies were
22:32
SPEAKER_00: expanding to their markets.
22:34
SPEAKER_00: That's what they want to see, that development of talent.
22:37
SPEAKER_00: They want to see that adoption.
22:38
SPEAKER_00: At the same time,
22:40
SPEAKER_00: there is a little bit of,
22:41
SPEAKER_00: dare I say,
22:42
SPEAKER_00: protectionist element going on right now where the US is in the lead,
22:47
SPEAKER_00: I would say.
22:49
SPEAKER_00: Whether you agree or not on AI,
22:52
SPEAKER_00: other countries want to make sure they're not dependent on the U.S.
22:55
SPEAKER_00: or China for that technology.
22:57
Kind of like with cloud right now,
22:59
most of Europe uses American tech companies for the cloud.
23:04
SPEAKER_00: I've heard that come up a lot where there's a desire,
23:06
SPEAKER_00: particularly within Europe,
23:07
SPEAKER_00: to make sure that they have their own technology.
23:09
SPEAKER_00: thriving AI ecosystem.
23:11
There's a lot of resources being poured in now to ensure
23:14
they're not reliant on the
23:15
SPEAKER_00: American company.
23:15
So that's been certainly a through line is a little bit of
23:21
championing your AI
23:23
industries domestically and AI talent domestically and
23:26
infrastructure domestically.
23:28
SPEAKER_00: So that is the number one trend we're seeing.
23:30
SPEAKER_02: And how does that affect Deal or the companies that you're working with?
23:34
We certainly hear from our customers all the time about how
23:39
difficult it would be
23:40
SPEAKER_00: to comply with 150 different regulatory regimes.
23:42
SPEAKER_00: There's certainly a desire to have cross-border harmonization on whatever
23:47
SPEAKER_00: regulatory approaches emerge.
23:49
SPEAKER_00: The more difficult it is, we'll ultimately help them comply.
23:52
SPEAKER_00: We're pretty agnostic in that regard.
23:54
SPEAKER_02: It's a good business opportunity, but at the same time, you have the
23:57
SPEAKER_02: your own compliance that you have to do as well.
23:59
SPEAKER_02: So it's also, you have your own compliance costs.
24:01
SPEAKER_00: Yeah,
24:01
SPEAKER_00: and you could make the case,
24:03
SPEAKER_00: and people say that sometimes,
24:04
SPEAKER_00: well,
24:05
SPEAKER_00: if employment law is very fragmented at the US,
24:08
SPEAKER_00: state,
24:09
SPEAKER_00: local,
24:10
SPEAKER_00: or globally across different countries,
24:12
SPEAKER_00: that's good for you all.
24:13
SPEAKER_00: Same thing on AI regulation.
24:15
SPEAKER_00: We've always taken the approach, simpler is actually better.
24:18
SPEAKER_00: In the EU right now, EU Inc.
24:20
was recently proposed to not require registration for entities
24:25
in all 27 different EU
24:27
SPEAKER_00: countries.
24:28
SPEAKER_00: We support things that make it simpler for our companies to do business.
24:32
SPEAKER_00: Ultimately, we know they'll need us.
24:33
SPEAKER_00: So harmonization, simplicity, I think ultimately that's a good thing.
24:37
SPEAKER_00: That's our position.
24:38
SPEAKER_02: I mean,
24:39
SPEAKER_02: a lot of people,
24:39
when we have conversations about regulatory patchworks and
24:42
compliance costs and
24:43
SPEAKER_02: what you're describing as 150 different regulatory regimes,
24:46
I think people kind of like roll their eyes sometimes because
24:49
they sort of think
24:50
that what the general thrust is just trying to get regulation
24:54
down to zero.
24:54
SPEAKER_02: That's not what we have advocated for as a firm.
24:56
SPEAKER_02: But I think people have that sense that that's what the implication is.
25:00
SPEAKER_02: And often when you sort of go quickly to what the solution is, I think.
25:03
It can enable you to not spend enough time really wrestling
25:06
with the problem.
25:07
SPEAKER_02: It sounds like from your perspective,
25:09
you do hear routinely from companies that you work with about
25:12
the potential
25:13
SPEAKER_02: compliance challenges.
25:14
SPEAKER_02: And yes,
25:15
SPEAKER_02: you'll help them when they need help,
25:17
SPEAKER_02: but you are hearing from them about how difficult it is just to comply.
25:20
It sounds like just on the sort of labor and payroll type
25:23
issues across different jurisdictions.
25:25
SPEAKER_02: Is that accurate?
25:25
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, and clarity is key.
25:27
There is a belief sometimes that it's,
25:29
oh,
25:30
maybe the tech industry doesn't want regulation.
25:32
I think,
25:33
at least from our perspective,
25:34
a lot of our customers,
25:35
they just want certainty.
25:36
I get more questions about the uncertainty over what's being
25:39
proposed and how it
25:40
SPEAKER_00: will impact them than I do once a law or regulation passes.
25:44
SPEAKER_00: Because then at that point, well, that's just what you have to do.
25:46
SPEAKER_00: That's how you comply.
25:47
It's always the uncertainty that is pretty taxing and creates
25:52
issues for a lot of our companies.
25:54
SPEAKER_00: So certainty should be the goal.
25:55
So I'm curious,
25:57
going back to you leading this policy function and just
26:00
thinking about how
26:01
SPEAKER_02: you're going to prioritize different things.
26:03
SPEAKER_02: You've had this experience with the report.
26:05
SPEAKER_02: What does that suggest about how things look going forward?
26:07
SPEAKER_02: Like,
26:08
are you guys going to continue to do regular labor updates or
26:11
similar kinds of
26:11
SPEAKER_02: research projects?
26:12
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, Deal just hired its first economist.
26:15
And part of the goal is to move away from what had been a
26:18
little bit of an
26:19
infrequent cadence of putting out our data and storytelling and
26:24
to really regular.
26:25
SPEAKER_00: I think of, in our space, employment ADP.
26:29
SPEAKER_00: They put out their monthly jobs report.
26:30
SPEAKER_03: Mm-hmm.
26:31
SPEAKER_00: and you see the entire market and economy,
26:34
SPEAKER_00: at least domestically here in the U.S.,
26:36
SPEAKER_00: follows the ADP report that comes out the week before the official U.S.
26:39
SPEAKER_00: government's jobs report.
26:41
Well,
26:41
we're really the only company that has access to all worker
26:44
types globally.
26:46
SPEAKER_00: Now, we're still scaling.
26:47
We certainly don't have the depth of stats that ADP would have
26:51
here in the U.S.,
26:52
but we have insight into some global trends across all worker
26:56
types that likely no
26:58
SPEAKER_00: one else has,
26:58
SPEAKER_00: and that's certainly...
27:01
That's where we can be a resource to governments and just to
27:06
other external stakeholders.
27:07
SPEAKER_02: What is the thing that you,
27:10
SPEAKER_02: running this policy function,
27:11
that you most want governments to understand that it seems like
27:14
they don't,
27:14
that constantly kind of comes up in meetings where you hope
27:17
over time that there
27:18
SPEAKER_02: will be a shift in the conversation?
27:21
SPEAKER_00: My goal with policy is that we're viewed as a trustworthy partner,
27:26
SPEAKER_00: and we have so many of not just the customers,
27:30
SPEAKER_00: the businesses that we've talked a lot about today,
27:33
SPEAKER_00: but the workers themselves.
27:35
SPEAKER_00: And so we can be a resource as they think about,
27:37
SPEAKER_00: not just how to regulate the tech industry or AI companies or businesses,
27:42
but we see what workers have in terms of benefits and what they
27:47
still need.
27:47
SPEAKER_00: And particularly in the US,
27:51
from health insurance to HSAs and FSAs and other countries have
27:59
pension plans,
28:00
SPEAKER_00: there's so many elements of that that are worker-centric.
28:03
And,
28:03
you know,
28:03
Deal,
28:04
we have one and a half million workers on our platform already.
28:07
SPEAKER_00: You know, we're getting closer and closer to the workers.
28:10
SPEAKER_00: You know,
28:10
SPEAKER_00: the customers are the businesses,
28:12
SPEAKER_00: but we're really starting to become more worker-centric.
28:15
And I'm excited for us to be a resource on how we can help
28:18
ensure that workers have
28:19
SPEAKER_00: the resources they need and,
28:21
SPEAKER_00: you know,
28:21
SPEAKER_00: they have a voice with governments as well.
28:24
SPEAKER_02: So in this conversation,
28:24
SPEAKER_02: we focused a lot on your workforce trends report,
28:27
SPEAKER_02: but you've actually recently released new data.
28:29
SPEAKER_02: Can you talk a little bit about that?
28:31
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, Deal is releasing its global hiring report.
28:34
SPEAKER_00: It's been on annual cadence in the past.
28:36
SPEAKER_00: The next one that's going to be out by the time this is heard,
28:40
SPEAKER_00: we'll see AI trainer positions having grown 283% cross-border in 2025.
28:48
SPEAKER_00: We saw most of these jobs, the majority of them actually, in the US.
28:52
SPEAKER_00: And so these AI trainer roles, we're seeing something like 70,000 workers
28:59
SPEAKER_00: for 600 companies.
29:03
SPEAKER_00: And so they're helping develop and refine AI systems,
29:08
and that's the human feedback that's ensuring that the systems
29:13
are learning and
29:14
SPEAKER_00: getting better based on the prompts they're getting and the output.
29:17
SPEAKER_00: And so it's exciting to see such tremendous growth.
29:20
SPEAKER_00: We talked a lot about jobs disappearing.
29:22
SPEAKER_00: Well,
29:22
SPEAKER_00: here's a classic example of jobs emerging,
29:25
SPEAKER_00: and that's a considerable amount,
29:26
SPEAKER_00: 70,000 just on the deal platform alone.
29:29
SPEAKER_00: The majority of them were in the US, as I said already.
29:32
And these are just an incredible amount of software developers
29:36
and AI engineers
29:37
SPEAKER_00: that are being hired globally right now.
29:39
SPEAKER_02: I think one thing that people are hungry for now is really metrics.
29:43
SPEAKER_02: People want to understand what is happening in labor markets.
29:46
SPEAKER_02: Sounds like this is a report that you've done this year.
29:48
SPEAKER_02: You've done it in the past.
29:49
SPEAKER_02: Are you expecting to do it annually going forward?
29:52
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, we've done it annually in the past.
29:54
SPEAKER_00: This will be at an annual cadence right now.
29:56
SPEAKER_00: But we need to be doing this more often.
30:00
So we've been supplementing it with blogs or short white papers
30:04
and really just
30:04
SPEAKER_00: trying to increase the cadence of how we're sharing information.
30:07
SPEAKER_00: our data, because there's certainly a desire for it from governments.
30:10
SPEAKER_00: And not just when you talk about policy,
30:13
SPEAKER_00: that's not just the officials themselves,
30:16
SPEAKER_00: it's also the think tanks and academics.
30:19
And we have a series of academic partnerships underway where
30:22
there are universities
30:24
SPEAKER_00: using our data,
30:25
SPEAKER_00: of course,
30:26
SPEAKER_00: anonymized and aggregated,
30:28
SPEAKER_00: no personal information shared,
30:30
SPEAKER_00: but that way they can also see trends and
30:33
SPEAKER_00: use that data to decide what that means, what it's telling us.
30:37
SPEAKER_02: So you came to Deal a couple of years ago.
30:40
You've talked about you growing your team and what you're
30:42
trying to do here.
30:43
SPEAKER_02: Can you talk a little bit about your background?
30:45
SPEAKER_02: How did you end up at Deal?
30:47
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I'd spent, well, I started my career in journalism first.
30:50
SPEAKER_00: I was a high school kid, played sports.
30:52
I was on the high school newspaper and had the opportunity to
30:54
go write for a local
30:57
SPEAKER_00: newspaper that's pretty big.
30:57
It was a top 80 paper in the U.S.,
31:00
The Morning Call in Allentown,
31:01
Pennsylvania.
31:02
SPEAKER_00: And I was writing the sports stories about high school games.
31:05
And I was even in a newsroom on the evening of 9-11 when
31:09
President Bush addressed the nation.
31:11
And it was just one of those classic newsroom moments that
31:15
really kicked off that
31:16
passionate for me,
31:17
and somehow ended up going from journalism to politics.
31:23
SPEAKER_00: Instead of maybe writing about it,
31:24
SPEAKER_00: I wanted to be part of the actual newsmaking,
31:27
SPEAKER_00: spent a decade on Capitol Hill,
31:28
SPEAKER_00: mostly on the Senate Banking Committee.
31:31
I led the International Finance Subcommittee and worked for a
31:33
bunch of members
31:35
SPEAKER_00: while I was up there and had the opportunity,
31:37
SPEAKER_00: while on Senate Banking,
31:38
SPEAKER_00: to negotiate a major law in 2018 that made changes to Dodd-Frank.
31:42
And that was the first major banking legislation at the time in
31:45
nearly a decade.
31:46
SPEAKER_00: After that, I decided I did not want to go become a big bank lobbyist.
31:52
SPEAKER_00: I knew the way I used financial services had changed.
31:56
SPEAKER_00: On my phone, I used Betterment and had Robinhood and Coinbase and Venmo.
32:01
SPEAKER_00: It was very different than what my parents were using.
32:05
I discovered this payments company called TransferWise out of
32:09
the UK that was
32:10
SPEAKER_00: looking for someone in the US,
32:13
SPEAKER_00: New York City-based
32:15
to lead their consumer education campaigns about the cost of
32:18
sending money abroad,
32:19
SPEAKER_00: hidden fees that exist.
32:21
SPEAKER_00: Fortunately for me,
32:22
they hired someone DC-based and it was a bit of like a policy
32:26
job with grassroots
32:28
SPEAKER_00: consumer education and helped ultimately scale that function there,
32:34
SPEAKER_00: led the global team within about a year of joining what became Y,
32:38
SPEAKER_00: spent five years there,
32:40
and had the opportunity to go to government and help them
32:43
modernize their payment
32:44
SPEAKER_00: systems.
32:45
SPEAKER_00: We should have real-time payments in the US.
32:48
SPEAKER_00: It's finally here, though not fully adopted yet.
32:50
SPEAKER_00: Still takes a couple days to get a paycheck.
32:52
We got to raise awareness about the hidden fees that exist in
32:55
cross-border payments.
32:56
SPEAKER_00: Make the case that fintechs,
32:58
SPEAKER_00: non-bank payment companies,
33:01
SPEAKER_00: should have access to payments infrastructure.
33:04
SPEAKER_00: And open banking as well was something we spent a lot of time on,
33:08
SPEAKER_00: not just in the US,
33:09
SPEAKER_00: but around the world.
33:10
SPEAKER_00: And about two and a half years ago,
33:12
finished my time at Wise when a deal was looking for someone to
33:17
help build their
33:17
SPEAKER_00: function.
33:18
SPEAKER_00: And I'd really enjoyed that zero to one phase of my time
33:21
SPEAKER_00: at then TransferWise,
33:23
where you're building a function and helping build the policy
33:26
muscle within a
33:26
SPEAKER_00: company.
33:27
We're explaining to them why it's smart to proactively engage
33:30
with governments.
33:31
SPEAKER_00: That's what the smartest companies do.
33:33
SPEAKER_00: We talked earlier about not asking for permission afterwards.
33:39
I do think it can be a growth lever when you're proactively
33:43
engaging with governments and
33:44
SPEAKER_00: So it's been a great journey.
33:45
At Deal,
33:46
we've continued scaling and growing and building those
33:49
relationships around the world.
33:50
SPEAKER_02: It seems like you really deliberately chose small,
33:53
SPEAKER_02: not big,
33:53
SPEAKER_02: that you were thinking of like,
33:55
SPEAKER_02: what is this Hill experience?
33:56
SPEAKER_02: What can I do with it?
33:57
And big banks were kind of the natural path,
33:59
and you deliberately chose small.
34:02
Can you talk a little bit more about just what it's like to be
34:05
at a startup?
34:06
How is that different,
34:07
you think,
34:07
from like how BigPath would have looked?
34:10
And what advice do you have for startups or for people who work
34:13
in policy at
34:13
SPEAKER_02: startups for thinking about how to grow this part of their work?
34:16
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, now, you know,
34:18
SPEAKER_00: I've been in tech seven years, so it's second nature.
34:20
SPEAKER_00: I've worked remote mostly for seven years,
34:23
SPEAKER_00: spent a lot of time traveling,
34:24
SPEAKER_00: including at Wise to the New York office.
34:26
But I remember when I left Capitol Hill after a decade of
34:29
wearing suits and being
34:30
SPEAKER_00: in the office every day,
34:31
SPEAKER_00: and then a week later,
34:33
SPEAKER_00: I'm going on the train up to New York.
34:35
SPEAKER_00: And I'm overdressed.
34:36
SPEAKER_00: And I felt very conscious of being overdressed.
34:38
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
34:38
SPEAKER_00: And so now I'm going in a hoodie and jeans to New York office.
34:45
So I certainly felt like a fish out of the water at first when
34:48
I joined Wise.
34:50
SPEAKER_00: But it was exciting to be part of their journey.
34:52
And so some of the lessons that I learned both in building the
34:56
function at DealNow
34:58
SPEAKER_00: when I was at Wise is...
35:01
SPEAKER_00: Yes, we talked earlier about it's smart to engage with governments.
35:04
SPEAKER_00: Let's take that as a given.
35:05
SPEAKER_00: It's internally building that muscle that is really difficult.
35:09
You're helping your colleagues understand why you would want to
35:13
be attuned to some
35:14
SPEAKER_00: of the,
35:15
SPEAKER_00: whether geopolitical or macro shifts happening,
35:18
how there's a chance maybe to influence some of the policy
35:21
making as it goes
35:21
SPEAKER_00: through the process.
35:22
You know,
35:23
policymakers are hearing from big banks or even big tech
35:26
nonstop.
35:27
SPEAKER_00: They want to hear from, say, little tech.
35:29
SPEAKER_00: They want to hear from the startups.
35:31
SPEAKER_00: That was part of the motivation.
35:33
SPEAKER_00: When I was at Wise, we were co-founder of the U.S.
35:36
Financial Technology Association,
35:37
which is now a massive player here in D.C.
35:40
SPEAKER_00: They have a big staff.
35:42
All the big financial technology companies are part of that
35:44
trade association.
35:45
SPEAKER_00: It's been incredible to see them grow.
35:47
SPEAKER_00: But at the time, when I joined then TransferWise, it felt like...
35:51
SPEAKER_00: FinTech did not have a voice in Washington.
35:54
SPEAKER_00: So I think from an influence perspective,
35:58
SPEAKER_00: to make sure you have a seat at the table,
36:00
SPEAKER_00: it is important that startups,
36:03
SPEAKER_00: they identify other like-minded companies.
36:07
SPEAKER_00: And if you face an existential threat,
36:10
say you understand the regulatory landscape and there's
36:12
something that could have
36:13
SPEAKER_00: an
36:13
SPEAKER_00: negative impact on you,
36:14
SPEAKER_00: or there's a level of uncertainty and you need certainty,
36:17
SPEAKER_00: you should find the other stakeholders that would care about this.
36:20
SPEAKER_00: So build a little coalition.
36:22
And you should probably identify if there's a trade association
36:26
in Washington that
36:27
can help you go to government and put your voice at the table
36:32
and things might turn
36:33
SPEAKER_00: out in your favor.
36:34
Because that regulatory uncertainty or not knowing what's
36:38
coming out of Washington,
36:39
SPEAKER_00: if it could have
36:40
SPEAKER_00: material impact on your business, that's a pretty big problem.
36:44
SPEAKER_00: You need to see that coming.
36:45
SPEAKER_00: And it's hard when you're a team of 50 people or 100 people.
36:48
So that's my advice to startups is make sure you're aware of
36:51
what's coming that
36:52
SPEAKER_00: could materially impact your business so that you're planning for it.
36:56
SPEAKER_02: Great.
36:56
SPEAKER_02: Nick, thanks so much for coming on the podcast.
36:58
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, thanks for having me.
36:59
SPEAKER_00: Really enjoyed our conversation.
37:00
SPEAKER_00: Look forward to being a subscriber to your feed from here on.
37:03
SPEAKER_00: Thanks.
37:03
SPEAKER_02: Thanks.