What to make of US recession fears, a Fed preview, our long-term global macro outlook and more

The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics · Mar 14, 2025 · 27m

Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing discusses what the latest signals from the US economy say about recession risk. He talks about what the coming week’s retail sales data might say, and how they might swing the debate around a downturn. Neil also previews the coming week’s Fed decision, a haul of start-of-the-year China data and explains why talk of increased defence spending won’t mean an automatic boost for economies.

Also on the show, Senior Global Economist Ariane Curtis talks about why we don’t think Donald Trump’s policy agenda will have an impact on the global economy over the long…