Latest / Success Story with Scott Clary / Lessons - How to Make Yourself Luckier (Scott)

Transcript

Lessons - How to Make Yourself Luckier (Scott) · Success Story with Scott Clary

• 0:00
  In this lessons episode, we're exposing why luck finds some people and not others.
• 0:04
  Derek Siver sold his company for 22 million and everyone said he got lucky.
• 0:09
  What they missed was that he'd been building for 11 years while his competitors quit at year two.
• 0:14
  Luck isn't random. It's probability that increases if you position right and don't leave.
• 0:19
  I'll speak about two conditions that make you actually find a bull when opportunity shows up
• 0:24
  and why most people quit 18 months before luck would have arrived.
• 0:30
  This is how you make yourself luckier.
• 0:35
  Derek Siver sold CD Baby for 22 million dollars in 2008 and everyone called it luck.
• 0:41
  Right place, right time, the internet boom caught the way, right?
• 0:44
  But what they didn't see is that he'd been building music distribution system since 1997.
• 0:51
  So 11 years of showing up before the big exit and during those 11 years,
• 0:57
  dozens of other music distribution companies started and most quit within two years.
• 1:02
  Some made it five years before selling for nothing or shutting down.
• 1:05
  But Derek was still there in year 11 when the buyer showed up.
• 1:10
  So was selling for 22 million lucky?
• 1:13
  Absolutely. The buyer could have picked any competitor.
• 1:15
  Timing could have been different.
• 1:17
  A dozen variables outside of Derek's control had to align.
• 1:20
  But here's what people miss.
• 1:22
  Derek created the conditions for luck to find him.
• 1:25
  And then he stuck around long enough for it to show up.
• 1:28
  And that's not the same as just working hard.
• 1:30
  And it's not the same as just getting lucky.
• 1:32
  It is something else entirely.
• 1:35
  See, a lot of us don't understand what luck actually is.
• 1:39
  Most people think about luck in binary terms.
• 1:42
  Either you got lucky and you didn't deserve it,
• 1:44
  which is random chance or you earned it.
• 1:47
  So hard work means no luck involved, right?
• 1:49
  This is wrong. This is a lie.
• 1:51
  And believing it's how luck works destroys your ability
• 1:55
  to actually benefit from luck.
• 1:57
  So here's what actually happens.
• 1:58
  Luck is always involved in any success story.
• 2:01
  But some people create conditions where luck can find them
• 2:05
  and others don't.
• 2:06
  So when someone wins a lottery, that is pure luck.
• 2:09
  They bought a ticket.
• 2:10
  Anyone could have won.
• 2:11
  The work required was minimal.
• 2:13
  The outcome was random.
• 2:15
  But when someone builds a company for 10 years and gets acquired,
• 2:18
  that's also luck.
• 2:19
  But it's a different kind of luck.
• 2:21
  Because they didn't just show up.
• 2:22
  They positioned themselves in a place
• 2:24
  where good luck could reach them.
• 2:25
  And then they stayed there long enough for it to arrive.
• 2:28
  The difference isn't deserved versus undeserved.
• 2:32
  The difference is probability.
• 2:33
  See, pure luck has the same odds for everyone who participates.
• 2:37
  You buy a lottery ticket.
• 2:38
  You have a one in 300 million chance of winning.
• 2:41
  But earned luck has better odds.
• 2:44
  So you built something valuable for 10 years in a growing market.
• 2:47
  You have a one in 50 chance that somebody wants to buy it.
• 2:50
  So it's still luck, but it's much better odds.
• 2:53
  Now, most people don't understand this distinction.
• 2:55
  So they either work hard and get better when luck doesn't show up.
• 2:59
  Or they wait for luck and get bitter when hard work doesn't make it appear.
• 3:03
  Or they get lucky once and they believe it was all skill.
• 3:06
  Or they watch others get lucky and believe it was all chance.
• 3:10
  All four of these ideas miss what's actually happening.
• 3:14
  But let me explain how this works with the story for my own life.
• 3:18
  I have been writing online for a very long time.
• 3:20
  I would say total writing anything online over five years.
• 3:24
  I guess the current newsletter that I put out has been about three years.
• 3:28
  But I've been writing for a very long time because there's been multiple
• 3:31
  previous iterations of writing.
• 3:33
  And I've killed some of these projects.
• 3:34
  But say the first two years I've ever written anything, nothing happened.
• 3:39
  I wrote every week.
• 3:40
  Sometimes multiple times per week and the engagement sucked.
• 3:42
  It was flat.
• 3:43
  There was no opportunities, no growth.
• 3:45
  Just showing up to an empty room, right?
• 3:47
  And year three, which was really around the time when I started this newsletter,
• 3:51
  someone with 50,000 followers shared one of my pieces.
• 3:53
  Traffic spiked.
• 3:54
  I got 500 new subs in a week.
• 3:56
  So was that luck?
• 3:57
  Completely.
• 3:58
  They could have shared anyone.
• 3:59
  They could have never seen my work.
• 4:00
  There was a dozen different variables that had to align for them to share my work.
• 4:06
  But what people don't see is I published well over 100 pieces
• 4:11
  before that person ever saw my work.
• 4:13
  And if I'd quit at newsletter 50 or newsletter 100,
• 4:17
  I wouldn't have been there when they went looking for something to share.
• 4:21
  And that is the definition of earned luck.
• 4:23
  I didn't make them share my work,
• 4:25
  but I made sure there was work to share when they were looking.
• 4:29
  Now, you're foreign to my writing career.
• 4:31
  I got invited to speak at a very large conference,
• 4:34
  decent size, paid well,
• 4:36
  changed the entire trajectory of my career.
• 4:38
  How did I get invited?
• 4:39
  Well, the person who shared my newsletter in year three
• 4:43
  had recommended me to the person who was putting on the conference because they liked my work.
• 4:46
  See, that is luck stacked on luck.
• 4:48
  But both pieces of luck required the same thing.
• 4:52
  I was still there, still publishing,
• 4:54
  still building when opportunity showed up.
• 4:56
  See, most people quit before luck has a chance to find them.
• 4:59
  They work hard for six months, see no results, decide it's not working.
• 5:03
  They were building the conditions,
• 5:05
  but they left before the luck could show up.
• 5:07
  So now you understand there are different kinds of luck.
• 5:10
  There's pure luck and earned luck.
• 5:12
  But this is really what makes earned luck different from pure luck.
• 5:15
  The probability of earned luck increases over time.
• 5:19
  It compounds if you're positioned right.
• 5:21
  So with pure luck, lottery ticket, right?
• 5:23
  You buy a lottery ticket once.
• 5:25
  Your odds are one in 300 million.
• 5:27
  If you buy a lottery ticket every week for 10 years,
• 5:29
  your odds are still one in 300 million.
• 5:32
  Each ticket is independent.
• 5:33
  But if you build something valuable,
• 5:35
  your odds start low, you start a company,
• 5:37
  you write a newsletter, you start a podcast,
• 5:39
  put content on social media,
• 5:40
  the odds start low.
• 5:42
  But they increase with time if you're in the right place.
• 5:45
  So your one of you building your company,
• 5:47
  your unknown, no network, no track record,
• 5:49
  odds of a big break are pretty close to zero.
• 5:52
  Your five, you have a body of work,
• 5:54
  a network that knows you, proof you can deliver.
• 5:56
  So your odds are meaningfully better.
• 5:58
  Your 10, you have become unavoidable in your niche.
• 6:02
  Odds are legitimately good that something happens.
• 6:05
  Now, this only works.
• 6:06
  This formula only works if two conditions are met.
• 6:09
  Your position in a place where opportunity exists,
• 6:12
  and you don't leave before luck shows up,
• 6:14
  and most people fail at both.
• 6:16
  They position themselves in a place with no opportunity,
• 6:18
  or they position themselves right, but they quit too early.
• 6:22
  Now, why do people make this mistake?
• 6:23
  Well, a few reasons.
• 6:24
  But the first mistake is they confuse effort with positioning.
• 6:28
  So you can work incredibly hard in a place
• 6:31
  where luck will never find you.
• 6:32
  The odds never improve,
• 6:33
  and you're just grinding with no probability of a breakthrough.
• 6:36
  So working 80 hours a week in a dead end job
• 6:39
  isn't creating conditions for earned luck.
• 6:42
  You're working hard,
• 6:43
  but you're not positioning yourself anywhere
• 6:44
  that luck can actually reach you.
• 6:46
  Now, writing a novel for five years,
• 6:48
  but never showing it to anyone also isn't positioning.
• 6:51
  You're creating something,
• 6:52
  but you're hiding it from the mechanisms
• 6:54
  that could create opportunity.
• 6:56
  See, effort matters,
• 6:57
  but only if it's happening in a place
• 6:59
  where luck can find you.
• 7:01
  Now, the second mistake people make
• 7:02
  is leaving right before probability catches up.
• 7:05
  So most people quit around month 18,
• 7:07
  right before their work is starting to compound,
• 7:10
  right when they're starting to be known,
• 7:12
  right before the probability curve
• 7:14
  starts working in their favor.
• 7:15
  See, they were tired,
• 7:16
  they position themselves right,
• 7:18
  then they left before luck could show up.
• 7:20
  And this is one of the most painful things to watch
• 7:23
  because they did everything right,
• 7:24
  except stay long enough.
• 7:26
  Now, let's go back to Derek and CD, baby.
• 7:29
  Derek Sivers didn't just work hard for 11 years.
• 7:31
  He positioned himself in the exact place
• 7:34
  where opportunity would eventually show up.
• 7:36
  He built something that musicians needed
• 7:38
  in a market that was growing
• 7:40
  with a model that created leverage.
• 7:42
  And then he stayed there,
• 7:43
  while his competitors quit, while the market shifted,
• 7:46
  well, years passed with no big exits in sight,
• 7:49
  but by year 11,
• 7:51
  he was one of the few people still standing in that space.
• 7:54
  And when a buyer showed up looking to acquire
• 7:56
  a music distribution company,
• 7:58
  there weren't many options left.
• 8:00
  Now, was it lucky that the buyer showed up?
• 8:01
  Yes, was it lucky they chose CD, baby?
• 8:04
  Yes, but Derek spent 11 years
• 8:07
  making himself want to be only options.
• 8:09
  That is not pure luck.
• 8:11
  That is earned luck.
• 8:12
  The buyer was going to show up eventually.
• 8:14
  Music distribution was valuable.
• 8:16
  Someone would want to consolidate that market.
• 8:19
  That was predictable.
• 8:20
  What wasn't predictable was which company
• 8:22
  would still be there when the buyer arrived
• 8:25
  and Derek made sure it was him.
• 8:27
  Now, what does this mean for your life?
• 8:28
  You can't force luck,
• 8:29
  but you can make yourself luckier.
• 8:31
  Not through positive thinking,
• 8:33
  not through manifestation,
• 8:34
  through positioning and persistence.
• 8:36
  Position yourself in a place where opportunity exists,
• 8:39
  where the thing your building has a chance of mattering
• 8:42
  and where luck can actually find you if it shows up
• 8:44
  and then stay there.
• 8:46
  Long past when it feels like it's working.
• 8:48
  Long past when others quit.
• 8:50
  See, most people leave right before probability catches up.
• 8:53
  They work hard for 18 months,
• 8:55
  see no results, decide they're unlucky,
• 8:57
  but they weren't unlucky.
• 8:58
  They just didn't stay long enough.
• 9:00
  Luck doesn't show up on a schedule.
• 9:01
  You cannot force it to arrive in year two or year five,
• 9:05
  but you can make sure that you're still there
• 9:07
  when it does arrive.
• 9:08
  That is the thing that you can control.
• 9:10
  See, the people who seem lucky aren't luckier than you.
• 9:13
  They have positioned themselves better
• 9:14
  and they didn't leave.
• 9:15
  That is the whole game.
• 9:16
  Position persists.
• 9:18
  Be there when the luck shows up
• 9:20
  because luck will show up eventually
• 9:22
  if you're in the right place,
• 9:23
  but that only matters if you're still there when it does.