Latest / Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar / 8/26/26: Iran and Oman Defy Trump, Lake America, China Says Screw You

Transcript

8/26/26: Iran and Oman Defy Trump, Lake America, China Says Screw You · Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Hey guys, Sagar and Crystal here.
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  Speaker 3: Good morning, everybody. Happy Wednesday. I missed you guys so much.
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  Speaker 3: Bro Show. People live for the pound. Thank you for
• 0:40
  Speaker 3: having me, Ryan.
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  Speaker 1: Tucker Carlson show. I believe the episode will drop sometime
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: next week, so you guys can look forward to that.
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: We are going to start with Iran and Iran and Oman.
• 0:56
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  Speaker 3: All right. Now, what are we starting with?
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: Iran. We're going to start with Iran and Oman. They
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: are now announcing a new deal to govern the Strait
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: of Hormuz. This comes as Trump claims that all mines
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: have been taken out of the Strait. There's some interesting
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: stuff going on. with oil markets in addition to a long,
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: new reported piece from the Wall Street Journal about the
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: warnings that Trump received in the Situation Room that basically
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: laid out exactly what was going to happen, and he
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: did it anyway. Also, some major egg on the face,
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: not just for Pete Hegseth, who we always knew was
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: an idiot, but for General Dan Kaine, who really tried
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: to whitewash a lot of his reputation. the chairman of
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: the Joint Chiefs of Staff ahead of time, and this
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: does show how much culpability he has in this disaster.
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: We're going to talk about Canada. Trump is now saying
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: he's going to rename Lake America, or sorry, Lake Ontario,
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: Lake America, as Canada has retaliated with a 50% new tariff.
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: I'm going to show you some of the economic fallout.
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: From that situation, China is now hitting back at Scott
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: Besson's threat of an economic D-Day. Man, this is one
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: of those days I was so bummed not to be
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: on the show. I mean, just to ridicule the D-Day.
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: I mean, just to imagine General Eisenhower being like, Germany,
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: I'm going to invade you.
• 2:53
  Speaker 3: Don't make me do it. Right.
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: Don't make me invade you. And then the press goes,
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: but why don't you just do it? And he goes, well,
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: why would I want to take casualties?
• 3:01
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: Yeah. Why would you?
• 3:03
  Speaker 3: All right.
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 3:04
  Speaker 3: Have you seen Saving Private Ryan? It's going to be awful.
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: Anyway, Robert Pape, the professor, the great professor, is going
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: to join us not to talk about Iran, but actually
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: to talk about South Korea, another area of expertise of
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: his as Donald Trump continues to marginalize and to isolate
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: South Korea. A South Korean public opinion flips against the
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: United States for the first time in its entire modern history. Also,
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: pet story here. I hope we have time for it
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: and we don't get lost.
• 3:29
  Speaker 3: In the sauce. Influencers.
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: I'm obsessed with this story. There's this woman who is
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: on Twitter. Her name is Data Republican. She's like, you know,
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: major Trump, I guess, influencer. I'll leave it at that.
• 3:41
  Speaker 3: She's like a not as smart Nick Shirley. Right, right. Yeah.
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: Which is saying something in terms of spelling. Anyway, so
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: she has been out posting for years, you know, behind
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: her moniker, has revealing fraud and All this other stuff
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: also happens to be pro-Zionist. Well, it turns out not
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: only did she screw up a monumental story, which they
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: tried to hand her a leak, but through the revelation,
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: she is a working as an employee for the Pentagon.
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: And so, I mean, can you imagine like some anonymous
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: leftist influencer with a million followers under Biden who it
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: turns out.
• 4:16
  Speaker 3: Is literally working for the government? Oh, they're on the payroll.
• 4:19
  Speaker 3: Never mind. Bonkers.
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: Absolutely crazy. Finally, Dan Osborne is going to join us,
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: the candidate in Nebraska, to talk about this beef situation.
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: There's a very sketchy announcement where Donald Trump said we're
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: going to import millions of pounds. of beef, and then
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: these beef producers have agreed to sell at 25% below
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: market price. Nobody knows where the beef is coming from.
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: He literally won't say. They're covering it up.
• 4:45
  Speaker 3: The ranchers are losing their minds.
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: Ranchers and Midwestern senators, GOP people, are losing it. All
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: of these people are getting destroyed by two separate things,
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: the price of diesel and fertilizer. on top of the tariffs.
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: So they are getting absolutely nuked on the bottom line.
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: And to have the government basically bring in a bunch
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: of foreign beef, undercut the entire market, I mean, this
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: could literally be the death knell of the ranching industry.
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: So that's all of it. Finally, we did our pitch already,
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: so I don't have to do it. If you're watching
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: this on YouTube, please hit subscribe to our YouTube channel.
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: If you're listening to this podcast, please share an episode
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: with a friend. All right, let's go ahead and start
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: with Iran. As you said, A1, let's put it up
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: here on the screen. This was by far the biggest
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: news that came out yesterday. So on the left, this
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: is from the foreign minister of Oman. Here he says,
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: constructive dialogue in Tehran with my colleague, Dr. Arachi. I
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: am hopeful we will soon announce a temporary corridor for
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: the Strait of Hormuz and practical arrangements to restore safe navigation.
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: Future management of the Strait and a permanent solution will
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: follow in due course as per Article 5 of the
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: Islamabad Memorandum. Discussions with regional partners will be conducted in
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: support of peace, cooperation, stability, and freedom of navigation. But
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: in the joint statement that they put out, let's look
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: at this very carefully. The proposed framework, this is a
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: translation from Farsi, includes creating a temporary joint operation through
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: the Strait of Hormuz for the purpose of implementing a
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: joint corridor through the Strait with the goal of managing
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: a single corridor for the permanent and future management of
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: the Strait, as well as providing mechanisms for information exchange,
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: traffic management, and security-related services. In other words, this is
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: a single, unified corridor through the Strait of Hormuz, guaranteed
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: by Iran and Oman. It has nothing to do with
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: the United States. The United States has nothing to do
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: with brokering this agreement. This agreement, as you can read
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: between the lines, will include management fees and environmental fees,
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: security-related expenses, perhaps, in which Iran will be able to
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: charge some.
• 6:46
  Speaker 3: Sort of a toll.
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: It comes immediately after this new announcement from Donald Trump.
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: Let's put it up here on the screen. He claims, quote,
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: I have just been informed by the United States Navy,
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: all mines have been removed and or detonated from within
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: the international waters of the Strait. Iran has been notified
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: any ship or boat placing new mines will be immediately
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: and systematically destroyed. Through Space Force, we are watching every
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: square inch of the Strait, as we are also with
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: Pickaxe Mountain and the already destroyed three other nuclear sites.
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: There is a zero tolerance policy on mine placement in
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: full force and effect. Thank you for your attention to
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: this matter. It will shock you, absolutely shock you to
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: learn no independent analysis has been able to confirm, Ryan,
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: that all the mines have been removed through the Strait. Basically,
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: it's a battle of propaganda over who controls the actual
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: Strait of Hormuz.
• 7:33
  Speaker 4: Yeah, and this comes after the Trump administration said that
• 7:36
  Speaker 4: if Oman cooperates with Iran— He will, quote, bomb the hell.
• 7:41
  Speaker 3: Out of them. No, bomb the shit out of them. Oh, sorry.
• 7:44
  Speaker 3: My fault. These are actually important distinctions.
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: Yes.
• 7:48
  Speaker 4: Oman's... What Oman is signaling here is that they understand
• 7:52
  Speaker 4: who's a more important player in the region and who's
• 7:55
  Speaker 4: going to be there longer. Spoiler, it's the country that...
• 8:00
  Speaker 4: has been there for thousands of years.
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: Yes.
• 8:01
  Speaker 4: That it's going to continue to be there, surrounded by mountains.
• 8:05
  Speaker 4: And while it is the one on the other side
• 8:06
  Speaker 4: of the ocean that has 15 of its bases in ashes,
• 8:11
  Speaker 4: that is less likely to be there for that long.
• 8:12
  Speaker 4: So Omana's like, you're really going to bomb the shit
• 8:15
  Speaker 4: out of us? I'm not so sure about that. This
• 8:19
  Speaker 4: also comes, interestingly, think about this. We spent Monday and
• 8:24
  Speaker 4: Tuesday talking about how Scott Besson is planning to launch D-Day.
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: Yes.
• 8:28
  Speaker 4: On any country that does any business whatsoever with Iran. Oman,
• 8:34
  Speaker 4: our ally, responds by jointly releasing a plan to reopen
• 8:41
  Speaker 4: the strait together with Iran.
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 8:44
  Speaker 4: It's like people are watching Scott Besson in amusement and
• 8:48
  Speaker 4: a little bit of kind of concern and horror.
• 8:51
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 8:52
  Speaker 4: What and is he okay like that that's the kind
• 8:55
  Speaker 4: of i think the driving concern when people are watching
• 8:57
  Speaker 4: besant at that press conference like what's like i don't
• 9:01
  Speaker 4: is he gonna survive this just physically and then they're
• 9:04
  Speaker 4: like okay anyway back to the business of negotiating with
• 9:07
  Speaker 4: iran to reopen the the strait of hormuz meanwhile so
• 9:11
  Speaker 4: they're gonna let oil flow through the strait of hormuz
• 9:14
  Speaker 4: they've said they're not interested in nuclear weapon we'll end
• 9:17
  Speaker 4: the program like they've said that for days, for months,
• 9:21
  Speaker 4: for weeks, for years. So everything that we could ask for,
• 9:25
  Speaker 4: except the fact that it's embarrassing because they and Oman
• 9:29
  Speaker 4: will collectively run it.
• 9:31
  Speaker 3: Meanwhile, the U.S.
• 9:32
  Speaker 4: Seems to think they have some time on their hand.
• 9:35
  Speaker 3: We can put up a three.
• 9:36
  Speaker 4: This is oil analyst Roy Johnson analyzing some of the
• 9:40
  Speaker 4: new information coming out, showing that directionally the U.S. claims
• 9:43
  Speaker 4: that there's a little bit more oil coming through straight
• 9:46
  Speaker 4: up from U.S., The absolute number that they're claiming is
• 9:51
  Speaker 4: a bit preposterous.
• 9:52
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 9:52
  Speaker 4: But directionally, as Johnson is saying here, it's in that
• 9:55
  Speaker 4: right direction. The problem is the Red Sea has collapsed.
• 10:00
  Speaker 4: because the Houthis have effectively shut down particularly Saudi ships.
• 10:09
  Speaker 4: And in the beginning of this, several months of this war,
• 10:13
  Speaker 4: the Saudis were able to move a lot through the
• 10:15
  Speaker 4: pipeline and through the Red Sea and through the Western coasts.
• 10:19
  Speaker 3: And that was keeping things... Right.
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: And actually, just to underscore your point, put A4 up
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: here on the screen to show the damage that they're
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: continuing to take in the Red Sea. This happened yesterday.
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: So there was a direct hit at sea, a projectile
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: that was fired from more than 1,000 kilometers away. As
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: you can see, the Yemenis, as this OSINT account is saying,
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: are improving their skills. I mean, this takes serious effort.
• 10:42
  Speaker 3: It's a moving ship.
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: Right. It's a moving target. It's 1,000-kilometer shot. The amount
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: of GP at navigation... technology involved. Remember, you have the
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: full force of the empire against you. You've been bombed.
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: You've been bombed by the Saudis. You've been taking hits
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: in caves for the last... 10 years, you've proven that
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: you've been able to clip an F-35 to survive the
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: onslaught of the Biden administration, of the Trump administration, of
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: the Saudi regime. And on top of that, you're still
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: able to hit a direct target a thousand kilometers away
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: and to menace the global oil market.
• 11:14
  Speaker 3: So I'm curious for your reaction.
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: Me reading this, this makes the situation 10 times more
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: dangerous because what is Iran seeing? As Rory has shown,
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: through his independent analysis, Gulf loadings are now roughly 7
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: to 10 million barrels per day. That is 50% of
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: pre-Hormuz or pre-Iran war Hormuz traffic.
• 11:34
  Speaker 3: They're learning.
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: Predominantly the way, and even though it's not just about oil,
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: this is what I also want to emphasize, the way
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: they're doing it is still really expensive. They're called ship-to-ship transfers,
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: where they load it up onto one ship, and then
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: they take a little ship and put it on another ship,
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: and then they run the blockade. It's kind of like
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: Confederate blockade runners on these tiny little ships. And then
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: they get to the big ship, which is raiding outside
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: the Strait, and then they put the oil back on.
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: It's super expensive. It's all uninsured, too, completely uninsured. It's
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: backed by the Gulf nations, which are paying for.
• 12:05
  Speaker 3: All of this.
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: So it's 10 times more expensive to do business this
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: way than normal. But some oil is beginning to leak
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: out just because the price is so damn high, especially
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: with diesel. So there is an economic incentive for this
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: to continue. As the United States and the Gulf allies
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: are able to prove that they are able to get
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: some oil out of the strait, and if Iran and
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: Oman are going to say, hey, we manage the strait,
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: in my opinion, this escalates the situation to a dire
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: consequence for Tehran. Because Tehran is in a situation now
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: where they're beginning to feel the economic blockade. Yesterday, the
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: Financial Times, which has an actual correspondent in Tehran, is
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: saying that there are lines, queues to get petrol, gasoline,
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: that there's beginning to be significant amounts of rationing throughout
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: the state. They can only sit there and take this
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: for so long, and they still have the ability to
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: horizontally escalate. I was reading this morning Qatar's LNG has
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: down 96% in the last six months, $ 24 billion in
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: revenue that they have been– had to give up. What's
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: worse for them is that the United States is the
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: one that's backfilling all of this LNG. I also read
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: this morning that European gas inventory is very, very low.
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: So the amount that we're all going to be paying
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: for electricity this winter is not going to be good.
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: So all of this right now is in a situation
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: where you're Iran, you're being slowly suffocated to death. You
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: have the ability to lash out. I've talked about the
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: Germans in 1916, unrestricted submarine warfare. They didn't want to
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: press a button, but ultimately they felt like they had to.
• 13:37
  Speaker 3: They said, we're going to die. We're going to be strangled, literally.
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: So what do you do? You use the last thing
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: in your arsenal. And Iran still has that ability. That's
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: why I think that as we see more oil begin
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: to flow through the strait, it makes escalation more likely
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: on their part because it's the only thing they have
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: left in their quiver.
• 13:54
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm glad you picked up on that because that
• 13:56
  Speaker 4: seems to be the piece that both U.S. policymakers and
• 13:59
  Speaker 4: also the American media seems to be missing. And also
• 14:05
  Speaker 4: some kind of Iranian, I don't want to call them
• 14:07
  Speaker 4: supporters or whatever, they're missing the fact that Iran has
• 14:13
  Speaker 4: been able to basically annihilate all the American bases. They've
• 14:18
  Speaker 4: been able to withstand the punishment, the punishing attack from
• 14:22
  Speaker 4: the U.S., they've been able to inflict real damage, not
• 14:26
  Speaker 4: just militarily on the U.S., but also economically. But those
• 14:32
  Speaker 4: things by themselves, to your point, are not enough to
• 14:36
  Speaker 4: quote-unquote win the war. Like, you can't force the president
• 14:41
  Speaker 4: to abide by the MOU. You were able to pressure
• 14:44
  Speaker 4: him into an MOU, but then as he was feeling
• 14:47
  Speaker 4: shame or whatever, he felt comfortable walking away from it.
• 14:52
  Speaker 4: And To your point, yes, Iran probably doesn't have.
• 14:58
  Speaker 3: Years of this. Now, does the U.S. have years of it?
• 15:05
  Speaker 3: Politically speaking, can we keep that going? Who knows? The
• 15:10
  Speaker 3: point is.
• 15:10
  Speaker 4: Iran does have the capacity to escalate this. And Iran
• 15:17
  Speaker 4: has kept signaling over the past couple weeks that, They
• 15:20
  Speaker 4: keep saying, we are still at war. We do not
• 15:23
  Speaker 4: have a ceasefire with the United States. We consider this
• 15:29
  Speaker 4: blockade and this D-Day from Besson, we consider these to
• 15:34
  Speaker 4: be acts of war. And we reserve the right to
• 15:37
  Speaker 4: respond violently. And I think that's the real question. Do
• 15:42
  Speaker 4: they do that? And have we... through our many decapitations,
• 15:48
  Speaker 4: put enough hardliners in place that the ones arguing for
• 15:51
  Speaker 4: that are going to do it. And if they do it,
• 15:53
  Speaker 4: what does that look like? More attacks on American bases,
• 15:57
  Speaker 4: attacks on Gulf infrastructure, or attacks on Israel? We don't
• 16:01
  Speaker 4: know exactly. Or do they start hitting some of these
• 16:04
  Speaker 4: shuttle boats and shut down the shuttle trade? we don't know,
• 16:09
  Speaker 4: but you're right that the pressure is on them.
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: Yes. The ball's in their court. Obviously, the more that
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: there's no major munitions flying, it's actually on the side
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: of the United States because we're not expending our munitions.
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: We're sitting there. We're marshalling this international coalition. The Gulf guys,
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: they desperately want their oil out of there.
• 16:27
  Speaker 3: They need to make money.
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: And so for them, basically, the gamble that they're making
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: is that they're just going to sit there and they're
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: going to take it. And I mean, no country on
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: Earth is just going to sit there. and take it.
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: By the way, meanwhile, in terms of the messaging that's
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: going out, we just wanted to give you a taste
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: of potentially our next White House press secretary, Scott Jennings,
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: talking about how all of this shows we won the war.
• 16:47
  Speaker 3: Let's take a listen.
• 16:48
  Speaker 5: And I believe this announcement may confirm something that many
• 16:52
  Speaker 5: in our political class refuse to acknowledge. The United States
• 16:56
  Speaker 5: has won the war against Iran. Wars are won when
• 17:01
  Speaker 5: one side achieves its strategic objectives and and the other
• 17:05
  Speaker 5: loses the ability to achieve its own. Iran entered this
• 17:09
  Speaker 5: war with four great pillars of strength, its nuclear program,
• 17:13
  Speaker 5: its missiles and drones, its regional terror network, and its
• 17:17
  Speaker 5: ability to hold the world economy hostage through the Strait
• 17:21
  Speaker 5: of Hormuz. Every one of those pillars has been severely
• 17:26
  Speaker 5: damaged or outright destroyed.
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: Severely damaged or outright destroyed, as we just did an
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: entire segment about how even our victory six months into
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: the war is that the Gulf Arab allies, driven by
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: desperation to fund their countries, are able to get roughly 40%
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: to 50% of their oil traffic out of the strait. Yeah,
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: doesn't look like victory to me. Which leads us to
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: our next part. Let's put this one up here on
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: the screen. This is from the Wall Street Journal, one
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: of their longer retrospectives that they're doing. The warnings that
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: came before a war now reaching the six-month mark. And
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: I believe we will hit that mark two days from
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: now on Friday. February 28th is when the entire thing
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: kicked off.
• 18:11
  Speaker 3: Here's what they say.
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: Days before going to war with Iran in February, President
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: Trump summoned his intelligence chief to the Oval Office to
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: ask whether a full-on assault was a good idea. Iran
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: was at its weakest point in decades. Israeli Prime Minister
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: Benjamin Netanyahu had told him, providing Trump the rare opportunity
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: to dismantle the nuclear program and thus bolster his legacy
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: as a peacemaker. Then-Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard outlined
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: assessments from America's intelligence apparatus. She told Trump, killing Iran's
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: supreme leader would usher in a more hardline regime open
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: to acquiring nuclear weapons. True. True.
• 18:48
  Speaker 3: True.
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: True.
• 18:49
  Speaker 3: True. The notes of caution echoed.
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: Warnings Trump was receiving from all corners. Trump's top military
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: officials had told the president a war would lead to
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: casualties and major concerns about weapons stockpiles and readiness problems
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: for an overstretched force. And then Trump decided to order
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: that attack on February 28th. What's even more interesting, actually, here,
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: are what they talk about with General Kane. And so
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: this is where I want to reserve my most smoke for. Good. Okay,
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: all of the, you know, Tulsi, all right, I mean,
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: you did your job.
• 19:37
  Speaker 3: I see Reed's Dropsite News. Right, yeah. Watches this show.
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: Yeah, watches, maybe.
• 19:41
  Speaker 3: I mean, who even knows? But, okay, you did your job.
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: You spoke truth to power.
• 19:45
  Speaker 3: You didn't do shit else about it, and you left,
• 19:47
  Speaker 3: and still apparently on good terms. So whatever.
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: J.D., allegedly in the Situation Room, was the only person
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: who said, I really don't think you should do this,
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: but if you do, I guess I have to back you.
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: Those are the only two people who actually said anything,
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: even remotely, against it. Tucker Carlson, again, was in the Oval,
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: and he was like, I really don't think you should
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: do this. And Trump said, what did he say? He said,
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: it always works out.
• 20:08
  Speaker 4: Why do you think it's going to work out? Because
• 20:09
  Speaker 4: it always does.
• 20:10
  Speaker 3: It always does. Okay.
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: But here's what General Cain, and the reason, again, I'm
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: going to reserve all my smoke for General Cain, Hegseth,
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: all these other people, they're all Ultimately, they're in politics. Kaine,
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: by acts of Congress, his only job, he doesn't actually
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: command any forces. His only job is to provide unbiased
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: military opinion to the president of the United States. That
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: is literally his constitutionally mandated role, as described by Congress.
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: Here's what they say. General Kane and Admiral Cooper had
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: briefed the president several times on plans to strike targets, etc. However,
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: despite the warnings, Hegseth and Kane replied on multiple occasions
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: they would navigate any complications and that they would be
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: able to deliver the victory that Trump had promised. And so, again,
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: it's one thing for the SecDef to say it. We
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: all know he's an idiot.
• 21:03
  Speaker 3: Sure.
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: But Kane backing up the secretary of defense. not providing
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: unbiased information. And remember, too, there was all kinds of
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: a psyop that was happening in the immediate days of
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: the war.
• 21:13
  Speaker 3: They're like, oh, Kane.
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: Told him not to do it.
• 21:16
  Speaker 3: No, he didn't.
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: And actually, I even reported some of that at the time.
• 21:19
  Speaker 3: I said, no, he didn't. He was very muted in
• 21:22
  Speaker 3: what he said. And now.
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: What they're even saying is that in reality, what he
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: really did is that he provided a lot of the
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: cover to Secretary Hegseth and to Donald Trump's mind as
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: to why actually it was all going to work out okay.
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: So if you want to say, you know, for recriminations,
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: when the time comes, Cain needs to be up there very,
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: very high on the list. I mean, he needs to
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: go up there in infamy with General Taylor from Vietnam,
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: with any of the other, you know, genuinely, like any
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: of the chairmen of the Joint Chiefs, Ironically enough, H.R. McMaster,
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: who was Trump's national security advisor, first term wrote a
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: whole book about it, which is actually quite good, about
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: how the entire chairman staff failed Johnson on Vietnam. They
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: never told him any of the truth. And Cain, who
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: I know has read the book because it's like required
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: reading in military cycles, comes out and repeats the entire thing.
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: Total sycophant.
• 22:12
  Speaker 4: And the one regret I have about the fact that
• 22:15
  Speaker 4: we never got the kind of parade of lies to
• 22:19
  Speaker 4: push us into the war that we got with Iraq—
• 22:22
  Speaker 4: is that because of that, we don't have many or
• 22:27
  Speaker 4: almost any public records from these people of where they
• 22:31
  Speaker 4: stood before the war.
• 22:32
  Speaker 3: Like with Wolfowitz, for instance, we know.
• 22:36
  Speaker 4: That he said it would be a cakewalk because he
• 22:38
  Speaker 4: said it in front of Congress with the cameras rolling.
• 22:42
  Speaker 3: So that gets to live in infamy.
• 22:44
  Speaker 4: And it bought us this 20 years of being like, well,
• 22:48
  Speaker 4: let's not start any new wars. It didn't end the
• 22:51
  Speaker 4: forever wars, but at least it took until Trump to
• 22:55
  Speaker 4: start another giant war. We don't have any clips of
• 22:58
  Speaker 4: Cain talking publicly. All we have is reporting from The Times,
• 23:01
  Speaker 4: reporting from the journal, your reporting, and his own spin
• 23:07
  Speaker 4: at the time of saying, no, no, I said a
• 23:10
  Speaker 4: lot about the material issues limitations of of our capacity
• 23:15
  Speaker 4: at the moment and that you know trump should be
• 23:17
  Speaker 4: concerned that was the thing that kane's people were trying
• 23:20
  Speaker 4: to spin in the media that no he said we
• 23:22
  Speaker 4: we got to be careful about our stocks and munitions
• 23:24
  Speaker 4: it's you know we're not sure that we really have
• 23:28
  Speaker 4: everything in the barrel that we're going to need to
• 23:31
  Speaker 4: to do this when behind closed doors to talking to
• 23:36
  Speaker 4: this guy who was you know really itching to do
• 23:39
  Speaker 4: this He's saying, we got you, boss. Don't worry about
• 23:43
  Speaker 4: the naysayers. These same naysayers who told you that you
• 23:47
  Speaker 4: couldn't swoop in and grab Maduro and his wife in
• 23:50
  Speaker 4: the middle of the night and you went and did it, sir.
• 23:51
  Speaker 4: You know, we are going to make sure that, OK, yeah,
• 23:56
  Speaker 4: maybe what Netanyahu is saying is a little bit over
• 23:58
  Speaker 4: the top. But, you know, and certainly there are going
• 24:01
  Speaker 4: to be some problems. But we got this greatest military
• 24:03
  Speaker 4: in the world, sir.
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: Exactly. And, you know, at the same time, just to
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: show you kind of where things are, let's put the
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: next one up here on the screen. It appears now
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: that the U.S. State Department is basically offering $ 10 million.
• 24:16
  Speaker 3: This is very war on terror-esque.
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: Offering $ 10 million bounties for information on key IRGC leaders,
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: including the new supreme leader. And so they basically have
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: a list here of all of the top leaders from
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: the IRGC and of Iran. saying, hey, anybody will pay
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: you $ 10 million to give us information. The reason why
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: I'm putting these two things together is they are now
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: offering $ 10 million of bounty for information, obviously, for potential
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: assassination purposes, because all of these people are now in
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: power because of the operation. It fulfills the exact promise
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: or the exact prediction that was made, apparently, by the U.S.
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: intelligence community. You and I have a lot of smoke
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: in for the intelligence community, but even they apparently were like, wow,
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: the Israelis are just blankered liars whenever it comes to
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: their prescriptions about how this entire thing is going to go.
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: And we cover the day-to-day over and over again, but
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: the how we got here is vitally important because every
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: single one of these people is still in power. Tulsi aside,
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: I mean, the new DNI is equally as much of
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: an idiot and sycophant. General Kane is still running the war.
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: Secretary Hegseth is still running the war. I mean, all
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: of these people, they're horrible judgment. And if anything, as
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: we've seen many times in history, they only have even
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: more of an incentive to double down on their previously
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: bad advice to cover up how much of a disaster
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: it's been.
• 25:37
  Speaker 4: And five of these 14, we don't even have photos of.
• 25:41
  Speaker 4: In the pictures, it's like, what an incredible collapse of
• 25:45
  Speaker 4: our intelligence and our ability to have any eyes on
• 25:49
  Speaker 4: the ground inside of Iran, a country of 90 million
• 25:53
  Speaker 4: people with like It's six to seven major ethnicities, which
• 25:57
  Speaker 4: makes it much more able to be penetrated where the
• 26:00
  Speaker 4: Israelis are everywhere. Like they're not sharing the Facebook photos
• 26:05
  Speaker 4: that they have of these guys. And of the 14,
• 26:06
  Speaker 4: they're like a bunch of gray bearded bureaucrats. You think
• 26:09
  Speaker 4: they don't have gray bearded bureaucrats who can take their
• 26:12
  Speaker 4: place if we go in and assassinate them?
• 26:14
  Speaker 3: Like we're going to assassinate. Mojitaba coming in?
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: Yeah, well, no, apparently the new cope is that he's
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: actually dead. Well, whether he's dead or not, the people
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: who are running the country in his name, they seem
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: to have a hell of a better idea on how
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: to do it than his father did.
• 26:31
  Speaker 3: Or our folks do.
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: Him being dead or brain dead is probably the best
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: case scenario for all of it. Just be a convenient
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: figurehead and they can run the country. in his name, likely,
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: almost certainly to continue now for many, many years. OK,
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: let's get to the next 200 years. He certainly will.
• 26:46
  Speaker 3: All right.
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: Let's get to Canada.
• 26:50
  Speaker 4: President Donald Trump has come back with the ultimate rebuttal
• 26:55
  Speaker 4: in his trade war with Canada.
• 26:56
  Speaker 3: He's going to rename Lake Ontario, Lake America. Look out.
• 27:02
  Speaker 4: In any event, here we have the Canadian Minister of Finance,
• 27:07
  Speaker 4: I love this, Francois-Philippe Champagne, with what the Canadian response
• 27:13
  Speaker 4: to the US trade war is going to be.
• 27:15
  Speaker 6: On August 22nd, the United States of America imposed tariffs
• 27:21
  Speaker 6: on 50% on approximately $ 28 billion in Canadian goods. Those
• 27:27
  Speaker 6: tariffs will have real consequences for Canadian workers, businesses, communities
• 27:34
  Speaker 6: across our nation. Canada must respond and today we are
• 27:40
  Speaker 6: in a proportionate, targeted and strategic way. Today I'm announcing
• 27:47
  Speaker 6: that Canada will match the United States tariffs dollar for dollar,
• 27:51
  Speaker 6: rate for rate. Effective September 8, Canada will impose counter
• 27:57
  Speaker 6: tariffs of up to 15, 25 or 50 percent on
• 28:02
  Speaker 6: 27.6 billion in imports from the United.
• 28:05
  Speaker 3: States of America.
• 28:07
  Speaker 6: For each product, our tariff would match the American tariff
• 28:11
  Speaker 6: on the same type of Canadian good.
• 28:15
  Speaker 4: And the Canadians said that they're trying to target with
• 28:17
  Speaker 4: precision states that voted for Trump. And so if you
• 28:22
  Speaker 4: live in one of those states, they're going after particular
• 28:24
  Speaker 4: products made in those states because they know they don't
• 28:27
  Speaker 4: have the capacity to kind of break the back or
• 28:29
  Speaker 4: break the economy of the entire United States.
• 28:31
  Speaker 3: Because they're not big enough. But they can make.
• 28:34
  Speaker 4: Things very difficult for particular towns and cities in states
• 28:39
  Speaker 4: that voted for Trump. Trump, however, has got your back.
• 28:43
  Speaker 4: And here's how he's going to do it. Put up
• 28:45
  Speaker 4: B1 here. Donald Trump on Truth Social. The United States
• 28:49
  Speaker 4: is giving serious consideration... to changing the name of Lake
• 28:52
  Speaker 4: Ontario to Lake America, in that we don't expect to
• 28:56
  Speaker 4: be doing much business with Ontario any longer.
• 28:58
  Speaker 3: Thank you for your attention to this matter, President Donald J.
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: Trump.
• 29:02
  Speaker 4: And of course, he also posted a little image, a
• 29:05
  Speaker 4: little AI rendition, where he X's out Lake Ontario and
• 29:12
  Speaker 4: replaces it with Lake America.
• 29:15
  Speaker 3: America.
• 29:16
  Speaker 4: Now we can, with B3, we can roll through some
• 29:19
  Speaker 4: of the, the specifics here. So Canada is talking about,
• 29:23
  Speaker 4: you know, Trump is saying that he was going to
• 29:25
  Speaker 4: move tariffs on Canadian vehicles up to 50%. So Canada
• 29:30
  Speaker 4: has come back and saying, okay, well then we're going to,
• 29:33
  Speaker 4: we're going to push tariffs on Canadian vehicles back up
• 29:38
  Speaker 4: to 50%. It's a, kind of a crisis situation where
• 29:42
  Speaker 4: you have the auto workers in both states, and the
• 29:47
  Speaker 4: United Auto Workers represent auto workers in Canada and the U.S.,
• 29:52
  Speaker 4: and you have the auto executives begging him not to
• 29:55
  Speaker 4: do this. So the industry that he's fighting for is
• 29:59
  Speaker 4: pleading with him not to do this.
• 30:01
  Speaker 3: Uh, he's saying he's going to do it anyway.
• 30:04
  Speaker 4: Uh, before Honda, which I think like what five of
• 30:09
  Speaker 4: their five, like five of the American made five of.
• 30:11
  Speaker 3: The top 10, like vehicles.
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: It's one of the top sellers in the United States.
• 30:15
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 30:15
  Speaker 4: And it made in the United States too. And made
• 30:17
  Speaker 4: in North America.
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: Many of them are made in America.
• 30:19
  Speaker 3: Like they, they invested.
• 30:20
  Speaker 4: Very heavily in creating, uh, supply chains and factories in
• 30:25
  Speaker 4: the U S and Canada, uh.
• 30:27
  Speaker 3: Not out of the goodness of their heart, by the way,
• 30:29
  Speaker 3: because we forced them to do so. We forced them
• 30:31
  Speaker 3: to do so. We forced them to do it. And
• 30:32
  Speaker 3: so they're saying we might.
• 30:33
  Speaker 4: Have to raise prices because their supply chains run back
• 30:36
  Speaker 4: and forth across the border.
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: Right. I can explain this, actually.
• 30:40
  Speaker 3: This is part of it.
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: First of all, I just want to say at the top, like, obviously,
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: and this is, look, Canadians, you're going to get mad,
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: but it is actually true. NAFTA was a disaster for us.
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: It wasn't for you. It worked out real well for you.
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: A lot of our manufacturing plants in Detroit and throughout
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: the United States moved to Canada and to Mexico, either
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: for labor arbitrage purposes or for various other access to resources.
• 31:02
  Speaker 3: I get it.
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: I don't blame a multinational for doing that, for taking advantage,
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: but it did not work out for our working class.
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: The way that the cars are made right now is
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: basically NAFTA plus USMCA, which means that many of these cars,
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: and this is what Honda is talking about, the parts
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: in the car in some cases can move across the
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: border up to 10 to 15 times. I'm exaggerating, it
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: may not always be that much, but various different types
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: of the car, once it's finally assembled in the United States,
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: there are parts in it that come from all over
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: the world, but particularly move back and forth for machine purposes,
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: manufacturing purposes, that eventually make their way into the Honda vehicle,
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: which you eventually purchase in the United States. Honda does
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: this because that's the way that NAFTA and USMCA set
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: out the law. They said there won't be any tariffs
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: that are on those. Again, I don't support this system.
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: I don't think it should be that way, but it
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: is what it is. this point so then when the
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: tariff comes into effect what ends up happening with the
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: way that Trump is doing it is it would increase
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: the cost every time that thing moves across the border
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: that's why the car manufacturers are freaking out because that
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: would raise the imminent cost of them if you have
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: to pay that cost even once or imagine ten times
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: that explodes the cost of the increment right on the
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: actual part also from what I understand But car makers
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: know this shit's not actually gonna last. So most of
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: the time, they'll just keep it in Canada. They're like, look,
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: we're just gonna wait for the taco, and then we'll
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: move it across the border that time. But obviously, what
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: does that do? Now production has to shut down. Now
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: you're gonna not meet quotas. All kinds of insanity whenever
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: it comes to the vehicle tariff. I mean, even right now,
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: Trump said he was going to double the tariff to 50%
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: whenever it comes to the Civic sedan, for example. Honda
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: currently assembles the Civic in Canada. It's the second largest
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: vehicle manufacturer by volume. And so a lot of that
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: is eventually sold here in the United States. Again, I
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: don't want to give the Canadians too much credit because
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: when— and this has happened under Biden, so this isn't just
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: TDS or anything— Under Biden, you can go and read
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: the headlines. There were all of these Made in America
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: provisions for the EV manufacturing credits. The Canadians were lobbying
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: the hell.
• 33:10
  Speaker 3: Out of the government.
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: They're like, how can you do this to us? You
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: can't just make it in your country. You need to
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: make it in ours. We're like, no, we want to
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: make it in our country. The Canadians were furious with
• 33:20
  Speaker 1: Biden and even more so under Donald Trump. So it's
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: kind of a years-long story. Same thing happened in Europe.
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: I get it. They're looking out for their interests. I
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: think we should look out.
• 33:29
  Speaker 3: Now, is this the way I would handle our relationship
• 33:31
  Speaker 3: with Canada?
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: No.
• 33:32
  Speaker 3: As I said, I don't have any great love for Canada.
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: But what we can see here is even if you
• 33:38
  Speaker 1: were to support this in a vacuum, which is true,
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: Canada needs us a lot more than we need them.
• 33:43
  Speaker 3: We still need them.
• 33:44
  Speaker 1: Major top trading partner to launch this at a time
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: of massive inflation and to do it. in such a
• 33:52
  Speaker 1: manner where the Canadian population is much better positioned.
• 33:57
  Speaker 3: To absorb the price increase.
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: Yes, put this up here while I'm talking about it,
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: is that their population is 100% united.
• 34:05
  Speaker 3: They're like a war footing. They don't care.
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: Yeah, they're like, all right, we're going to pay more
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: for Tim Hortons.
• 34:10
  Speaker 3: We'll eat grass.
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: Yeah, as long as he's free. It was like, so
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: be it. We'll sit there and we're going to take it.
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: Are we going to sit there and are we going
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: to take it? While you're paying... What's the gas price today?
• 34:21
  Speaker 3: Let me check. $ 4.
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: 10 on average per gasoline? That's like Well, we're sitting
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: here paying high gas, high grocery, and all this other stuff.
• 34:31
  Speaker 1: They obviously have their own problems, but we're the aggressor.
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: And if we're going to be the aggressor, the whole
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: population has to be on our side. And nobody's on
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: their side. They don't care about this at this time. Again,
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: in a vacuum, sure, whatever. You can make a case,
• 34:44
  Speaker 1: et cetera. Even then, you wouldn't probably want to do
• 34:47
  Speaker 1: like a back and forth type of trade war on again,
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: off again. be extremely incendiary. And what you're watching effectively
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: is that the Canadian government, right and left, is totally
• 34:59
  Speaker 1: united against the United States. I mean, Doug Ford is
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: like a national hero in Canada for all of this, like,
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: kiss my ass stuff. And what you're watching is on
• 35:08
  Speaker 1: our side, nobody wants to pay any of these higher tariffs,
• 35:12
  Speaker 1: also because They don't even think it's going to be
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: paired with a bigger manufacturing push, which now we've had
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: tariffs for over a year. We know it's not leading
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: to that, especially because of downward pressure from the overall economy.
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: The diesel price plus the tariff, a lot of these
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: manufacturers are dead in the United States if this continues.
• 35:28
  Speaker 4: And it's also a bit of a sideshow given that
• 35:32
  Speaker 4: electric vehicles in the next decade or whatever are going
• 35:35
  Speaker 4: to sweep the entire country.
• 35:36
  Speaker 3: It It would be sort of like- I don't know
• 35:38
  Speaker 3: if it will here.
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: I think that they'll put so much protectionism on gas that- Maybe. Also, look,
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: I've got to save my smoke for the American consumer.
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: Dodge was out here bragging about the Dodge Ram being
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: the number one seller in the country. There are guys
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: out there taking out 9% interest car loans over 48 months,
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: buying $ 80, 000 souped up trucks for literally no reason. And
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: so there is a part of that in the American heart,
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: which will never go away.
• 36:08
  Speaker 3: Maybe that's right. Right. I look at it as.
• 36:12
  Speaker 4: Two different countries competing over the manufacturing of horse and
• 36:15
  Speaker 4: buggies in 1905.
• 36:18
  Speaker 3: It's a fair point.
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: Gas is always going to be part of our market.
• 36:21
  Speaker 4: Maybe I'm wrong, and you're right that just the construction
• 36:25
  Speaker 4: of our lives and the suburban nature of it and
• 36:28
  Speaker 4: the cultural attachment to the gas guzzlers is going to
• 36:34
  Speaker 4: override pure economics.
• 36:36
  Speaker 3: We'll see. But you're right. We if you were going
• 36:41
  Speaker 3: to redesign the system, you would renegotiate it. Like, sit down.
• 36:44
  Speaker 4: You know, Trump had the USMCA that he agreed to. Like,
• 36:49
  Speaker 4: if he wanted a different trade policy, the massive trade
• 36:53
  Speaker 4: negotiation that was underway was, like, the place to do it. This, like,
• 36:58
  Speaker 4: ad hoc scattershot tariff war that he likes to do is, yeah, like,
• 37:05
  Speaker 4: because they don't expect it to stick, it doesn't have
• 37:08
  Speaker 4: the effect. You're right that The reason that Honda is
• 37:12
  Speaker 4: here is because of U.S.
• 37:13
  Speaker 3: Tariffs and because of U.S.
• 37:15
  Speaker 4: Trade policy and also just enormous amounts of kind of,
• 37:20
  Speaker 4: it bordered into xenophobic, anti-Japanese.
• 37:23
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: So the game that everybody knows about the Japanese.
• 37:26
  Speaker 3: But it was long. It was a long game. Right.
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: And so what happened is post-1970s after the, you know,
• 37:32
  Speaker 1: actually Trump was all over Oprah talking about how bad
• 37:35
  Speaker 1: Japan was. He had a point actually at the time
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: because of the undercutting of our market. The deal the
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: Japanese made throughout the 80s and 90s, especially post-NAFTA, is
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: we were like, look, we know everybody wants your cars.
• 37:47
  Speaker 3: They're cheaper.
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: They're better than ours. You just got to build them here.
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: The Japanese are like, we don't really want to, but
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: I guess.
• 37:52
  Speaker 3: All right, we'll do it.
• 37:53
  Speaker 1: And so what I've heard from more recently is inside Japan...
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: Their belief is that they would have been better off
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: in the long run just making them Japan and shipping
• 38:02
  Speaker 1: and paying the tariff. They're sick of building here. They
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: hate American work culture. They hate most of the states.
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: I'm dead serious. They hate American work culture. They hate
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: the government. They think they would have been better off
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: just building the cars in Japan and paying whatever the
• 38:21
  Speaker 1: variable tariff.
• 38:23
  Speaker 3: Would have been. And let Ford deal with these American workers.
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: Let Ford deal with all this bullshit and the state
• 38:27
  Speaker 1: of Michigan government, right? Because in Japan, when the CEO
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: of Honda needs something, the Japanese prime minister is like,
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: what do you need? All right, here you go.
• 38:34
  Speaker 3: They're like, oh, you want $ 100 billion? Here's $ 200.
• 38:35
  Speaker 1: You know, make sure that it works out.
• 38:38
  Speaker 3: It's not how it works here, right?
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: So... Basically, look, the TLDR is that while I do
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: think we have major structural problems in our trade with Canada,
• 38:46
  Speaker 1: the way that this has been done, especially the whole
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: Lake America, I'm like, my God, do you have any
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: original ideas? Sure, it was funny on the first day,
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: Gulf of America and all that. We can all start
• 38:56
  Speaker 1: looking at maps and why Gulf of Mexico is actually
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: a Spanish colonial name. It's actually quite woke to rename
• 39:01
  Speaker 1: it Gulf of America.
• 39:02
  Speaker 3: That's right, yeah. I support that. It actually is.
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah. It's like, why should we be using a
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: Spanish colonial name? Yeah. In reality, we all know, number one,
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: this is not going to lead to a better deal.
• 39:13
  Speaker 1: It will lead to chaos. It will lead to higher prices.
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: It will also lead to worsening relations with Canada, which
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: maybe we could have afforded pre-Iran war. I don't think
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: we could right now with our top trading partner. It's
• 39:25
  Speaker 1: part of a global isolation game. I will say, though,
• 39:28
  Speaker 1: with Canada, you know, their population wants to fight. But
• 39:34
  Speaker 1: remember Mark Carney gave that whole speech about neoliberalism and
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: and the standing.
• 39:39
  Speaker 3: Up in the window.
• 39:40
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 39:40
  Speaker 3: He's like, we're going to change everything.
• 39:42
  Speaker 1: And then immediately came back and backed Trump on the
• 39:45
  Speaker 1: Iran war and, and, you know, became like this NATO,
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: you know, obsessive. So they need to make up their
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: mind too. Like, what are you guys going to do?
• 39:53
  Speaker 1: I think we have to live together and we got
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: to work it out. But look, that's not really what
• 39:57
  Speaker 1: either of them, that's not, that's maybe what our population wants.
• 39:59
  Speaker 3: I'm not so sure what, that's what they want.
• 40:01
  Speaker 4: And meanwhile, China is like, Playing a lot of footsie
• 40:05
  Speaker 4: with Canada.
• 40:06
  Speaker 1: Totally. They have very different rules in Canada. A lot
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: of their Teslas have much more Chinese components from Giga Shanghai.
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: I think maybe 10% or so. A lot of them
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: are not even allowed to be sold here in the
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: United States. So they have very different rules and relations
• 40:18
  Speaker 1: with China and kind of their engagement with the rest
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: of the world. So they're doing a balancing act, which
• 40:25
  Speaker 1: they didn't previously used to have to do. They're mostly
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: on the side of the United States. It's certainly not
• 40:29
  Speaker 1: like that anymore. Speaking of China, let's get to China. Okay,
• 40:35
  Speaker 1: so as we were talking about speaking about China and
• 40:37
  Speaker 1: the way that they're navigating this entire situation, it's kind
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: of a boon to them, the entire Iran war, and
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: even the trade war, honestly. Let's put this up here
• 40:45
  Speaker 1: on the screen. It comes on the heels of Scott
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: Besson promising economic D-Day. And so how is China responding?
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: Let's take a look. China has vowed to protect its
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: interests after the U.S. announced plans to widen economic sanctions
• 40:59
  Speaker 1: against Iran and its trading partners. Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: Zhan said that China was formally opposed to what it
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: called illegal unilateral sanctions and would take all necessary measures
• 41:11
  Speaker 1: to safeguard its rights. This comes after Scott Besant saying
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: that he will announce new measures warning any nation financially
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: partnering with Iran would be isolated. China buys 90 percent
• 41:22
  Speaker 1: of Iranian oil. And Lin said further, cooperation between China
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: and Iran has always been conducted within the framework of
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: international law and should not be interfered with or disrupted. Obviously,
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: Besson had said the single greatest financial offensive ever against
• 41:38
  Speaker 1: Iran and then proceeded to release absolutely zero details about
• 41:42
  Speaker 1: the entire thing. And so they're making it clear. And
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: this is part of why the D-Day thing, you and
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: I both know it's not even going to happen. If
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: we were going to target any, it's going to be
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: some small, piddly nation, which sends buys oil from Iran.
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: President Xi is coming to the United States, I think
• 41:59
  Speaker 1: next month, sometime in September. Are we really going to
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: center our entire relations with the second largest power on earth,
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: our number one trading partner, our number one unilateral trading
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: partner whenever it comes to China? Such enormous effect on
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: the global economy, on us, on our relations and all
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: that in Asia, which we've effectively abandoned.
• 42:22
  Speaker 3: Are we really going to do it?
• 42:23
  Speaker 1: It comes to Iran. And that's the thing too, even
• 42:26
  Speaker 1: if we did, would it work? I think the fact
• 42:28
  Speaker 1: that we did it to Russia, a second rate power
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: compared to China, that it didn't work entirely, that it
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: showed that their resilience to a sanction proof defectually financial
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: system and weapons manufacturing allowed them to prosper for the
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: entire time. So I think what we see with China
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: in this entire thing is that the Trump administration is
• 42:49
  Speaker 1: really in a bind because their rhetoric, as you said, remember, D-Day,
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: it's a term that has meaning, I think, in rhetoric,
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: rhetorical influence. D-Day is like all out of offense. It's
• 43:01
  Speaker 1: all out offense. We roll the dice and we go
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: all in and we're going to defeat. But if you
• 43:07
  Speaker 1: don't do that, that's humiliating. If you do do it,
• 43:10
  Speaker 1: it will be a disaster because we know that we
• 43:12
  Speaker 1: don't have the ability to actually compel their behavior on Iran,
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: which they have continued to support for the last six months.
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: If anything, sending them weapons, giving them lots of intelligence,
• 43:22
  Speaker 1: supporting their drone industry, and really bolstering their ability to
• 43:25
  Speaker 1: stand up against the United States.
• 43:26
  Speaker 4: And on your Russian point, CIA Director John Ratcliffe was
• 43:30
  Speaker 4: just in Moscow.
• 43:31
  Speaker 3: Flew there yesterday.
• 43:32
  Speaker 4: The reporting was, and maybe you've heard how accurate this
• 43:35
  Speaker 4: reporting is, is that One of the messages that he
• 43:37
  Speaker 4: conveyed was, we want you to sever ties with Iran.
• 43:42
  Speaker 4: And if you don't, we're going to do X, Y,
• 43:45
  Speaker 4: and Z. Russia relayed that to Iran, said, don't worry
• 43:48
  Speaker 4: about it. We're not going to do it. And the
• 43:50
  Speaker 4: threats that they made were not actually that serious. And
• 43:54
  Speaker 4: so that's Russia. Like, as you said, Russia is not China.
• 44:00
  Speaker 4: So I'm curious if you have any insight.
• 44:02
  Speaker 3: Into why it is.
• 44:06
  Speaker 4: That the Trump administration moves publicly forward with these ideas
• 44:13
  Speaker 4: that to any person just casually observing.
• 44:18
  Speaker 3: Are unworkable.
• 44:20
  Speaker 1: I think it just makes Trump feel good.
• 44:22
  Speaker 3: What does he love? Words.
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: We talked about Lake America. D-Day.
• 44:26
  Speaker 3: Great.
• 44:27
  Speaker 1: Yeah. Besson walks in. Sir, economic D-Day.
• 44:29
  Speaker 3: And he doesn't realize there will be a week after
• 44:31
  Speaker 3: the week that he's living in now.
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: And then he's like, well, wait, hold on a second.
• 44:35
  Speaker 1: We can't actually do that. So you announce it, but
• 44:37
  Speaker 1: then nothing actually happens. Like I said, I mean, the
• 44:39
  Speaker 1: prestige to the empire is immense. I mean, if the
• 44:41
  Speaker 1: empire says D-Day, people should be like, oh, shit, like
• 44:44
  Speaker 1: we're about to get rocked. Except the Chinese are like, yeah, OK,
• 44:47
  Speaker 1: go ahead.
• 44:48
  Speaker 3: Let's see.
• 44:49
  Speaker 1: Let's see how it works out for you. The Financial
• 44:51
  Speaker 1: Times actually wrote this up in a very good op-ed.
• 44:54
  Speaker 1: Let's put this up here on the screen. They talk specifically.
• 44:57
  Speaker 1: In the event, it seemed more like a series of
• 44:59
  Speaker 1: warning shots fired from far offshore. The campaign to turn
• 45:02
  Speaker 1: Iran into an economic outcast is, moreover, not even one
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: that the United States can fully accomplish on its own,
• 45:08
  Speaker 1: but requires cooperation with Tehran's trading partners, the biggest of
• 45:11
  Speaker 1: those China has signaled little intention to play ball. And
• 45:15
  Speaker 1: as Besson acknowledged, moving too quickly with U.S. secondary sanctions
• 45:19
  Speaker 1: that do not comply would blow up the global financial system.
• 45:23
  Speaker 1: And especially what they talk about here whenever it comes
• 45:26
  Speaker 1: to China. It says Beijing, which already buys 90% of
• 45:29
  Speaker 1: Iran oil, warned that if the U.S., it would retaliate
• 45:32
  Speaker 1: if Chinese companies were included. Any significant increase in U.S.
• 45:36
  Speaker 1: sanctions on China would then torpedo delicate trade negotiations only
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: a month before Trump and Xi are due to meet
• 45:43
  Speaker 1: in Washington. Even if the U.S. did manage to impose
• 45:47
  Speaker 1: a significant new economic pain on Iran, there is no
• 45:49
  Speaker 1: guarantee that it would even force Tehran's capitulation. After two years,
• 45:54
  Speaker 1: after two wars in the past year have damaged industrial
• 45:56
  Speaker 1: capacity and left inflation running at 80% to 90%, their
• 46:00
  Speaker 1: economy is in far deeper crisis than when Iran had
• 46:03
  Speaker 1: launched maximum pressure in 2018, but the regime is now
• 46:06
  Speaker 1: more hard-lined by the conflict, only increasing its defiance. And
• 46:10
  Speaker 1: so what they call, say here, is the China problem,
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: is basically there is no way to compel Chinese behavior,
• 46:18
  Speaker 1: which would not immediately have blowback on the United States,
• 46:22
  Speaker 1: which the Chinese is not going to do. And even
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: if they did do, it probably wouldn't work. And one
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: of the reasons, and I remember now, in retrospect, how
• 46:31
  Speaker 1: much criticism we took talking about here about those Russia sanctions.
• 46:36
  Speaker 1: Because I remember, and I said this, I said, if
• 46:38
  Speaker 1: you do this, you need to do it for something
• 46:41
  Speaker 1: which is actually vitally important to the United States. Because
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: by pulling it out, making Russia the most sanctioned economy
• 46:48
  Speaker 1: on earth, then you show your hand, you show exactly
• 46:52
  Speaker 1: the way that you can use the global financial system
• 46:54
  Speaker 1: to your advantage. And what if it doesn't work? And
• 46:57
  Speaker 1: we know now, four years later, it didn't work at all.
• 46:59
  Speaker 1: GDP is up in Russia. Missile production is up. Weapons
• 47:03
  Speaker 1: manufacturing is there. They're able to pay all of the widows.
• 47:06
  Speaker 1: They can take who knows what the real number is,
• 47:08
  Speaker 1: at the very least, hundreds of thousands of casualties and survive.
• 47:11
  Speaker 1: Their population is fine. There's still food on the shelf
• 47:14
  Speaker 1: in Moscow. Everybody's fine. In fact, some of them are
• 47:17
  Speaker 1: so rich they can fly to Thailand or whatever these
• 47:19
  Speaker 1: countries will take them. But then you look here at
• 47:22
  Speaker 1: China for the last four years is sitting there studying
• 47:25
  Speaker 1: the entire thing.
• 47:26
  Speaker 3: Oh, here's how the sanction worked. Here's how the bank is.
• 47:28
  Speaker 1: Here's how they implemented it. Here's what they did against Iran.
• 47:31
  Speaker 1: Here's what they did against Venezuela. They're just picking up
• 47:33
  Speaker 1: data points. Then they go in, because it's a nation
• 47:35
  Speaker 1: of bureaucrats, and they say, how do we make sure
• 47:38
  Speaker 1: this doesn't happen? How do we make sure that doesn't happen?
• 47:40
  Speaker 1: They've had so many years. And lo and behold, let's
• 47:42
  Speaker 1: put the next one up here on the screen, is
• 47:44
  Speaker 1: that China now says, quote, they need US dollars, but
• 47:48
  Speaker 1: is building a hedge against Washington sanctions. And what they
• 47:51
  Speaker 1: specifically laid out is that China's banks are now currently
• 47:55
  Speaker 1: in a position Where Beijing can reject the demand, even
• 47:59
  Speaker 1: though some of its biggest lenders still have a strong
• 48:01
  Speaker 1: incentive to preserve access to the dollar. Besant had actually
• 48:05
  Speaker 1: even said if they facilitate transactions that are part of
• 48:09
  Speaker 1: the ecosystem that turns Iranian oil into money, they will
• 48:13
  Speaker 1: be targeted. The Chinese, what they're doing is they have
• 48:17
  Speaker 1: internal mechanisms to use a different system of banking. It's
• 48:22
  Speaker 1: called the Chinese Cross-Border Interbank Payment System, or CIPS, which
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: allows it to diversify from dollar-centered finance without abandoning it altogether.
• 48:33
  Speaker 1: PRC built CIPS in 2012, which was apparently the first
• 48:37
  Speaker 1: year that they ever got sanctioned, and they now have
• 48:39
  Speaker 1: 12 years of experience actually using it. They also have
• 48:43
  Speaker 1: put in multiple different systems inside their own banks to
• 48:47
  Speaker 1: be able to trade on different.
• 48:48
  Speaker 3: Types of currency.
• 48:50
  Speaker 1: I know this is all very technical, but this is
• 48:52
  Speaker 1: the machinery and like the railroad, if you will, which
• 48:55
  Speaker 1: banking systems in China used to work. And they built
• 48:58
  Speaker 1: an alternative pathway to do deals with Russia and with.
• 49:00
  Speaker 3: Any other country that America doesn't want it to do.
• 49:03
  Speaker 1: They would prefer to use the primary one, but the
• 49:05
  Speaker 1: secondary one is there, battle tested and ready to go
• 49:08
  Speaker 1: if we were to put it against them.
• 49:09
  Speaker 4: CNBC notes the symmetry here that it was actually in 2012,
• 49:13
  Speaker 4: we sanctioned a small Chinese bank specifically for doing business
• 49:19
  Speaker 4: with a And that's why they built this parallel clearance project.
• 49:25
  Speaker 3: With all Obama.
• 49:26
  Speaker 4: Yeah, so that if we did that again, and it
• 49:29
  Speaker 4: goes back to that old saying, you know, if you
• 49:33
  Speaker 4: owe the bank a million dollars, the bank owns you.
• 49:37
  Speaker 4: If you owe the bank $ 40 trillion, you own the bank.
• 49:41
  Speaker 4: And it's like Besson needs to go back and reread his, like,
• 49:43
  Speaker 4: volume three of Marx's Capital, which talks about the way
• 49:47
  Speaker 4: that debt and leverage shape who has control over resources.
• 49:51
  Speaker 4: Because I think he's forgotten the way that this has unfolded.
• 49:55
  Speaker 4: That goes back to your point that anything that we
• 49:58
  Speaker 4: could do because they own the bank, they own us
• 50:03
  Speaker 4: because of our debt with them, our relationship with them,
• 50:06
  Speaker 4: it blows right up in their face. And so China
• 50:10
  Speaker 4: has announced, we will not take this lying down. You
• 50:14
  Speaker 4: can do D-Day if you want. But if you try
• 50:18
  Speaker 4: to storm our beaches, don't forget you're going to blow up.
• 50:22
  Speaker 3: All of your own treasury bonds.
• 50:24
  Speaker 1: We have guns. We can put your economy to the brink.
• 50:28
  Speaker 1: He even said, quote, we have our own tools and
• 50:31
  Speaker 1: we know how to play the game. We've been waiting
• 50:33
  Speaker 1: for these plans for a long time.
• 50:36
  Speaker 3: That's an ominous quote. Unlike us. We planned this last week.
• 50:40
  Speaker 1: Yes. And, oh, that was the last thing I wanted
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: to put on. up here I forgot to mention. Put
• 50:45
  Speaker 1: C4 up on the screen. Remember that we've been talking
• 50:48
  Speaker 1: about the only reason that the entire economy did not
• 50:52
  Speaker 1: implode as a result of oil prices was entirely because
• 50:56
  Speaker 1: China reduced its overall oil imports to a low which
• 51:00
  Speaker 1: we did not even think humanly possible. It remains the
• 51:03
  Speaker 1: reason why that oil continues to be relatively low, despite
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: the fact that there's been this major disruption. And if
• 51:10
  Speaker 1: you're watching our show, the chart in front of you
• 51:12
  Speaker 1: shows why. As you can see, exactly the number of
• 51:16
  Speaker 1: crude oil exports that sent to an all-time high where
• 51:20
  Speaker 1: you can see now is that they're beginning to climb
• 51:23
  Speaker 1: up back to levels that we haven't seen from the
• 51:26
  Speaker 1: very beginning in April and in May. And the reason
• 51:28
  Speaker 1: why that they're beginning to climb up is because it
• 51:31
  Speaker 1: says Asian buyers are snapping up U.S. crude, adding stress
• 51:36
  Speaker 1: to a tight market. And what it means is that
• 51:39
  Speaker 1: with very little oil coming out of the Strait of Hormuz,
• 51:42
  Speaker 1: then everybody has had to readjust and buy oil from
• 51:45
  Speaker 1: where it is available, in America, thanks to the shale revolution. Now, immediately,
• 51:50
  Speaker 1: some of this was being bought by Europe, by Japan,
• 51:53
  Speaker 1: and others. But what they point to here specifically is China,
• 51:56
  Speaker 1: and specifically that China is beginning to ramp up slightly
• 52:00
  Speaker 1: its overall buy. We're not even close to where we
• 52:02
  Speaker 1: are at normal levels. They still think the price is
• 52:05
  Speaker 1: too high. It's very clear that their electric grid capacity,
• 52:09
  Speaker 1: their EV reliance, and their overall strategic petroleum reserve bought
• 52:13
  Speaker 1: them a runway which nobody even thought possible. But as
• 52:17
  Speaker 1: Asian buyers run through their petroleum reserve, just like the
• 52:20
  Speaker 1: United States, eventually you're going to have to go out
• 52:22
  Speaker 1: and buy. And that's what sends the bid price up.
• 52:25
  Speaker 1: And so as we see right now with the Chinese,
• 52:28
  Speaker 1: they can use their own buying leverage to inflict maximum pain.
• 52:33
  Speaker 1: on the United States. They don't even have to necessarily
• 52:36
  Speaker 1: do it on sanctions. They could easily take a strategic
• 52:39
  Speaker 1: loss by buying oil at a very, very high price,
• 52:42
  Speaker 1: which would send demand skyrocketing in the United States.
• 52:46
  Speaker 3: And they could easily, if they just resumed.
• 52:48
  Speaker 1: To their buying where it was pre-war levels, they could
• 52:51
  Speaker 1: send gas prices here up to $ 5. 50 a gallon if
• 52:53
  Speaker 1: they wanted to, which would be a total disaster. I mean,
• 52:56
  Speaker 1: a monumental change, I think, politically. And not only same
• 52:59
  Speaker 1: with diesel, of which, of course, they also have their
• 53:01
  Speaker 1: own capacity. So I just wanted to flag that for everybody.
• 53:04
  Speaker 1: As the buys continue, and if they tick up even more,
• 53:07
  Speaker 1: that $ 4. 10 that we're seeing. I mean, every last two weeks,
• 53:11
  Speaker 1: every time I say something, I'm like, $ 4.
• 53:14
  Speaker 3: 02, $ 4.
• 53:15
  Speaker 1: 04, $ 4. 06. I was gone for a couple days, $ 4.
• 53:18
  Speaker 3: 10.
• 53:19
  Speaker 1: Just keeps on ticking up to where things are. And
• 53:22
  Speaker 1: there's not even any real bullets that are flying.
• 53:23
  Speaker 3: God save you if you need diesel. My God, yeah, actually, yeah.
• 53:27
  Speaker 1: I can see it.
• 53:28
  Speaker 3: In front of me, $ 5.
• 53:30
  Speaker 1: 62 a gallon. And diesel was at $ 3. 70 a gallon
• 53:33
  Speaker 1: a year ago for context. And has now been above
• 53:37
  Speaker 1: $ 5 a gallon for months.
• 53:40
  Speaker 4: And the proportion of Trump supporters who buy diesel versus gas.
• 53:44
  Speaker 3: Oh, it's got to be immense. Yeah.
• 53:46
  Speaker 1: Right. Like I said earlier about the idiot men out
• 53:50
  Speaker 1: there who live in suburbs who buy these diesel trucks.
• 53:52
  Speaker 3: I'm like, hope it was worth it, buddy.
• 53:55
  Speaker 1: Hope it was worth it so that you can use
• 53:56
  Speaker 1: it to move once every... four years or you buy
• 54:00
  Speaker 1: it with your friend's couch. Somewhere out there, there are
• 54:03
  Speaker 1: a lot of wives saying, I told you so. I
• 54:05
  Speaker 1: told you so. And she was right.
• 54:06
  Speaker 3: She bought a CRV.
• 54:07
  Speaker 1: All right, let's get to Robert Pape.