Latest / Crosstabs / John Horvick Explains the Polls: Part One

Transcript

John Horvick Explains the Polls: Part One · Crosstabs

0:00
SPEAKER_02: You got yours, Brian?
0:02
SPEAKER_02: I got what?
0:03
SPEAKER_00: Got to mute those notifications.
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Stop, Reagan.
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SPEAKER_02: All right, Reagan.
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SPEAKER_02: I have now, wait.
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SPEAKER_02: Now you're going to use this in the beginning of the show, aren't you?
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SPEAKER_02: Because I just muted the notifications.
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SPEAKER_03: We're clear to engage.
0:20
SPEAKER_03: Time on target.
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SPEAKER_03: Five mics.
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SPEAKER_03: Out.
0:32
SPEAKER_00: Welcome back to Crosstabs.
0:35
SPEAKER_00: I'm your host, Reagan Knope, with your other host, Brian Iverson.
0:42
SPEAKER_00: We are sort of your capital water cooler, capital hallway...
0:47
SPEAKER_00: in Salem, talking about all the issues that are important.
0:52
SPEAKER_00: That's just my little attempt at an intro,
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SPEAKER_00: Brian,
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SPEAKER_00: because we're getting good feedback from our listeners,
0:57
SPEAKER_00: you and I,
0:57
SPEAKER_00: and hearing some good things about the podcast.
1:00
SPEAKER_00: And we've welcomed to our hallway, our water cooler discussion, John Horvick.
1:06
SPEAKER_00: Welcome, John.
1:08
SPEAKER_00: Thank you.
1:09
SPEAKER_00: And for anyone who doesn't know John Horvick, you should absolutely follow him on Twitter.
1:15
SPEAKER_00: You're just at Horvick, aren't you?
1:16
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
1:17
SPEAKER_01: Yes,
1:17
SPEAKER_01: we have a Horvitz,
1:18
SPEAKER_01: not a very common name,
1:19
SPEAKER_01: and I kind of stole Twitter,
1:21
SPEAKER_01: Gmail,
1:22
SPEAKER_01: all the things from all my my brothers and sisters.
1:25
SPEAKER_00: That's that's fantastic.
1:27
SPEAKER_00: Good call.
1:29
SPEAKER_00: You sound like an oldest sibling.
1:30
SPEAKER_00: Maybe we'll see.
1:32
SPEAKER_00: That's my guess there.
1:34
SPEAKER_00: So John Horvick,
1:35
SPEAKER_00: if you don't know him,
1:35
SPEAKER_00: is the senior vice president at DHM Research,
1:40
SPEAKER_00: and he manages complex polling,
1:42
SPEAKER_00: survey research.
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SPEAKER_00: He's an experienced focus group moderator,
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SPEAKER_00: and he does polling and survey work that's electoral politics,
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SPEAKER_00: healthcare,
1:51
SPEAKER_00: education,
1:52
SPEAKER_00: land use,
1:53
SPEAKER_00: all kinds of stuff.
1:54
SPEAKER_00: You're also DHM's political commentator there.
1:56
SPEAKER_00: So if there's local media, you're talking to fledgling podcasts like ourselves.
2:02
SPEAKER_00: You're out there talking about the polling and the issues.
2:07
SPEAKER_00: You have a degree in sociology from University of Minnesota.
2:10
SPEAKER_00: I'm reading here in your bio.
2:12
SPEAKER_00: You're an avid traveler and runner, and you have a goal of running in all 36 counties.
2:17
SPEAKER_00: How is that goal going for you?
2:19
SPEAKER_01: i try to do it every year uh every year holy smokes it usually takes me like a year
2:24
SPEAKER_01: and a half to get there but uh but i try to make the goal you know it's good to be
2:28
SPEAKER_02: out there see the state touch the land is that where kotech got her i'm gonna go to
2:32
SPEAKER_02: every 36th county that she's still at from horvick i don't know no it's actually uh
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SPEAKER_01: the age of dhm tim hibbets he was an avid hiker and i a mentor of mine just it was
2:42
SPEAKER_01: a real uh
2:46
SPEAKER_01: You can't do good public opinion in Oregon by sitting in Portland.
2:49
SPEAKER_01: So it's a good goal just to make sure I'm getting out there.
2:52
SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
2:53
SPEAKER_02: Have you been to Crook County?
2:54
SPEAKER_02: Have you ran over here in Prineville?
2:56
SPEAKER_01: Of course.
2:57
SPEAKER_01: You bet.
2:59
SPEAKER_02: Well,
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SPEAKER_02: if you've been over here in Crook County,
3:01
SPEAKER_02: and of course,
3:01
SPEAKER_02: we're going to talk about the presidential debate.
3:03
SPEAKER_02: We're going to have to because that's obviously the news on everybody's mind.
3:07
SPEAKER_02: But while we're talking about Crook County, John, have you ever delivered a calf from a cow?
3:14
SPEAKER_02: no okay well uh you know i obviously i live on a cattle ranch my wife and i you
3:21
SPEAKER_02: know we live on the cattle and i've probably been involved in about 20 or so so
3:27
SPEAKER_02: last friday was crooked river roundup we were reagan and i were recording and we
3:31
SPEAKER_02: have big rodeo in town here and and i went to the rodeo friday night and probably
3:36
SPEAKER_02: had a few too many beers and
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SPEAKER_02: Uh, and, and got home, you know, it was probably like 1130, the rodeo clown.
3:43
SPEAKER_02: I was on rodeo board for 11 years.
3:45
SPEAKER_02: I was on Columbia river circuit board for a couple of years, uh, doing all that sort of stuff.
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SPEAKER_02: But anyway,
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SPEAKER_02: so we were out there having,
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SPEAKER_02: having a good time seeing my buddy,
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SPEAKER_02: JJ Harrison is a rodeo clown,
3:55
SPEAKER_02: uh,
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SPEAKER_02: goes to a bunch of things.
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SPEAKER_02: We should actually have JJ on sometime, Reagan.
3:58
SPEAKER_02: He'd be hilarious, uh, to talk about his take on politics and stuff.
4:02
SPEAKER_02: But, um, anyway, so I get home, you know, go to bed.
4:07
SPEAKER_02: phone rings at like eight, 7.30, eight in the morning.
4:10
SPEAKER_02: And all I hear is Vicki go, yeah, Brian and I'll be right over.
4:15
SPEAKER_02: And I'm like, huh?
4:18
SPEAKER_02: She goes, we got to go help our friends.
4:20
SPEAKER_02: They have a Dexter cow that's calving for the first time.
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SPEAKER_02: And Dexters are a little smaller than normal cows that we have.
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SPEAKER_02: And she's like, yeah, the cow's calving and they couldn't get it out.
4:32
SPEAKER_02: And our friend Chuck couldn't get it in the pan and he's got nothing.
4:36
SPEAKER_02: Like usually you put them in a shoot and you can kind of lock them in.
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SPEAKER_02: And he's got none of that there.
4:40
SPEAKER_02: I've been to his house, got none of it.
4:42
SPEAKER_02: And I'm like, oh crap.
4:43
SPEAKER_02: So I put on my other jeans, my ones that are going to get dirty jeans.
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SPEAKER_02: And away we went.
4:50
SPEAKER_02: And,
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SPEAKER_02: and I,
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SPEAKER_02: when you go and you have to give birth to a calf,
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SPEAKER_02: you know,
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SPEAKER_02: their,
4:55
SPEAKER_02: their feet got to come through first because you got to get the shoulders through.
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SPEAKER_02: And I get there and Chuck's got this poor cow, like, you know, in this pen and it's just tied by a rope.
5:06
SPEAKER_02: And, and he's kind of like, well, what do I do?
5:07
SPEAKER_02: And I'm like, well, you got to go in there and pull it out.
5:09
SPEAKER_02: And he goes like, what do you mean go in there and pull it out?
5:11
SPEAKER_02: I mean,
5:12
SPEAKER_02: Go in there and pull it out is what you got to do.
5:15
SPEAKER_02: And and so we the problem was,
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SPEAKER_02: is I had to get the calf's feet in front because its head was going through and his
5:24
SPEAKER_02: feet were stuck behind its head.
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SPEAKER_02: So I worked my hand in, pushed the head back.
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SPEAKER_02: and to finally get the feet kind of in front,
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SPEAKER_02: but this calf was so big that I couldn't get my hand in there to get the feet and stuff.
5:40
SPEAKER_02: And I brought my little pulling chains.
5:42
SPEAKER_02: We use metal because you can't use anything else because it'll put bacteria inside
5:46
SPEAKER_02: the calf and all the things.
5:47
SPEAKER_02: And so we called the, or Chuck ended up calling this, this girl and she's like a vet.
5:53
SPEAKER_02: She's in vet school.
5:55
SPEAKER_02: So she comes out and she's got small hands.
5:58
SPEAKER_02: So for the next week,
5:59
SPEAKER_02: Two hours.
6:01
SPEAKER_02: We worked on getting that calf out and the calf died in the process.
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SPEAKER_02: And the cow, we had to lay, you know, finally got tired and laid down.
6:09
SPEAKER_02: And, but we, then, then you move from saving the calf to,
6:14
SPEAKER_02: or saving the cow after you've lost the calf.
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SPEAKER_02: And before I've had to literally cut those things out of there.
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SPEAKER_02: When a calf dies and you can't get it,
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SPEAKER_02: I've had to like literally cut the arm off and then cut the other arm off and then
6:25
SPEAKER_02: pull the calf out.
6:26
SPEAKER_02: And that's just not a lot of fun either.
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SPEAKER_02: I've done a C-section on these things before, but it was a sweaty, horrible mess for almost three hours.
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SPEAKER_02: But we did save the cow.
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SPEAKER_02: And she's up and going again.
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SPEAKER_02: And it was just an amazing experience for because this girl who's in vet school,
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SPEAKER_02: she's never done it before.
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SPEAKER_02: The one thing that we sorely miss in rural Oregon and probably across the country, I think.
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SPEAKER_02: is there's not enough large animal vets.
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SPEAKER_02: Like there is just, like Chuck was trying to call these vets.
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SPEAKER_02: We have like two in all of Crook County and none of them are available, right?
7:05
SPEAKER_02: So we have a huge problem with not having vets because all these cute kids that go
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SPEAKER_02: to school and they want to go to vet school,
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SPEAKER_02: all they want to do is work on dogs and cats,
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SPEAKER_02: right?
7:14
SPEAKER_02: They don't want to work on cows.
7:16
SPEAKER_02: And I just thought it was a very interesting, fun, interesting day.
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SPEAKER_02: And I just wanted to share that with the audience.
7:22
SPEAKER_02: So-
7:24
SPEAKER_02: That was my last Saturday.
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SPEAKER_02: Hopefully that doesn't happen because I'm playing golf today instead.
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SPEAKER_02: So I won't do anything crazy.
7:30
SPEAKER_00: That sounds a little bit more like our audience may relate to that, Brian.
7:34
SPEAKER_00: But I think,
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SPEAKER_00: John,
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SPEAKER_00: a good way to kind of segue this into it is just talking about that urban-rural divide.
7:41
SPEAKER_00: And what are you seeing in your currently available polling?
7:48
SPEAKER_00: I think you guys might be working on a new statewide survey or something like that.
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SPEAKER_00: If there's any top-secret info you can share from that.
7:56
SPEAKER_00: What's your current take on the urban-rural divide in Oregon?
8:01
SPEAKER_01: Well,
8:01
SPEAKER_01: if you look at,
8:03
SPEAKER_01: one of my hobbies is to go back to the election archives and just put together my
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SPEAKER_01: spreadsheets and my charts.
8:10
SPEAKER_01: And if you go back and look at what presidential gubernatorial elections is the
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SPEAKER_01: same pattern,
8:15
SPEAKER_01: you know,
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SPEAKER_01: from the early part of the century,
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SPEAKER_01: tell about the 1970s,
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SPEAKER_01: you know,
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SPEAKER_01: there were differences between urban and rural areas or just there were differences
8:24
SPEAKER_01: across the state,
8:26
SPEAKER_01: but they were relatively modest.
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SPEAKER_01: And then you get to the Reagan era and it just explodes.
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SPEAKER_01: And so now we're at a point where,
8:33
SPEAKER_01: you know,
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SPEAKER_01: Multnomah County might go for a Democratic presidential gubernatorial candidate,
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75,
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80%.
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SPEAKER_01: And, you know, Lake County is not big, but there's lots of small counties in the state.
8:42
SPEAKER_01: But Lake County,
8:42
SPEAKER_01: I think,
8:42
SPEAKER_01: went for,
8:43
SPEAKER_01: I think COTEC got 11% in Lake County in that last gubernatorial election.
8:48
SPEAKER_01: And so there's just, just,
8:51
SPEAKER_01: explosion uh of difference between the two and you know there's it's not as though
8:56
SPEAKER_01: they're part of the reason for that is the parties have become so sorted right
9:02
SPEAKER_01: there's just not conservative democrats or liberal republicans anymore that's part
9:06
SPEAKER_01: of it but also there's just this drift apart between the two sides and what's
9:10
SPEAKER_01: notable in oregon is that if you look at gubernatorial take gubernatorial elections
9:13
SPEAKER_01: for example
9:14
SPEAKER_01: except for that election where Kitsap or blue,
9:17
SPEAKER_01: uh,
9:17
SPEAKER_01: size more and kind of the typical gubernatorial election,
9:19
SPEAKER_01: the Democrat wins by about four points.
9:21
SPEAKER_01: Now, sometimes it's one, sometimes it's seven, but sort of about that range.
9:24
SPEAKER_01: Uh,
9:25
SPEAKER_01: and that's the,
9:26
SPEAKER_01: so there's stability with,
9:27
SPEAKER_01: so the overall margin more or less where the,
9:31
SPEAKER_01: the blue and red or the urban and rural are just,
9:33
SPEAKER_01: are,
9:34
SPEAKER_01: are moving apart.
9:35
SPEAKER_01: So with this pulling apart is sort of at equal forces.
9:39
SPEAKER_01: Um,
9:39
SPEAKER_01: And we've ended up in a place where the two parts of the state are quite divided.
9:43
SPEAKER_01: We have things like the Move the Borders movement.
9:47
SPEAKER_01: It's not going to be politically successful in terms of it's not going to happen.
9:52
SPEAKER_01: But it's a call into the wind and it gets a lot of attention and sort of it organizes people.
9:57
SPEAKER_01: You know, I do travel the state a lot.
9:59
SPEAKER_01: And if you're a Portlander, not enough do go out to say.
10:05
SPEAKER_01: I was out in Harney County a couple weeks ago down in Steens.
10:08
SPEAKER_01: I mean, it's a big, big place.
10:11
SPEAKER_01: And you don't have to spend much time out there to realize sort of the mood and
10:15
SPEAKER_01: feelings and needs in a place like Harney County are different than Portland.
10:19
SPEAKER_01: At the same time,
10:20
SPEAKER_01: you know,
10:21
SPEAKER_01: folks out in Harney County,
10:22
SPEAKER_01: if they spent time in my neighborhood in inner Northeast Portland,
10:26
SPEAKER_01: they'd probably quickly realize that our needs are different as well.
10:29
SPEAKER_01: So there is a divide.
10:31
SPEAKER_01: I think there's often not a lack of acknowledgement about the real differences that are there.
10:35
SPEAKER_01: Now we did in this last survey,
10:37
SPEAKER_01: you know, ask how people felt about different types of Oregonians.
10:41
SPEAKER_01: So we just finished a statewide survey.
10:43
SPEAKER_01: So we just talked to 500 Oregonians across state number issues.
10:47
SPEAKER_01: One of the questions we asked is just,
10:48
SPEAKER_01: do you feel positively and negatively about different folks,
10:51
SPEAKER_01: including Portlanders and rural Oregonians and Oregonians feel very,
10:56
SPEAKER_01: very warmly towards rural Oregonians.
10:58
SPEAKER_01: So if you put it on a thermometer scale from 0 to 100,
11:01
SPEAKER_01: where 50 is sort of like,
11:02
SPEAKER_01: you know,
11:04
SPEAKER_01: are neutral,
11:05
SPEAKER_01: they feel about 70,
11:05
SPEAKER_01: 75% degrees warm towards rural Oregonians and about 50 to Portlanders.
11:12
SPEAKER_01: And Portlanders feel pretty warm towards rural Oregonians, and it doesn't work the other way.
11:16
SPEAKER_01: So that's the one thing,
11:17
SPEAKER_01: like,
11:17
SPEAKER_01: as I travel the states,
11:18
SPEAKER_01: like,
11:19
SPEAKER_01: there's a lot of rural Oregonians that sort of feel like,
11:21
SPEAKER_01: you know,
11:21
SPEAKER_01: the world's against them or Portland's against them,
11:23
SPEAKER_01: and we can sort of talk about...
11:25
SPEAKER_01: it's not crazy and the political power in the state does because there's more people in the urban areas.
11:31
SPEAKER_01: But rural folks don't talk kindly about Portlanders.
11:35
SPEAKER_01: If Portlanders were as direct about the way that they talk about rural Oregonians
11:41
SPEAKER_01: as the other way around,
11:44
SPEAKER_01: I don't think that's what happens as much.
11:48
SPEAKER_01: There's a lot of antagonism towards Portland.
11:51
SPEAKER_01: Anyway, so a ramble, but
11:53
SPEAKER_02: Do Portlanders, how do they feel about other Portlanders?
11:57
SPEAKER_02: In your survey, like you said, they feel about 75 towards us in the rural side.
12:02
SPEAKER_02: So how do they feel about each other?
12:04
SPEAKER_01: So Portlanders don't feel very positive about the place that they are right now.
12:08
SPEAKER_01: So there's different ways to sort of look at that.
12:10
SPEAKER_01: We're down on ourselves.
12:13
SPEAKER_01: You know, feeling like the community's heading in the right direction, for example.
12:17
SPEAKER_01: You know, what...
12:18
SPEAKER_01: In our archives,
12:19
SPEAKER_01: so DHM has been business since 1977,
12:22
SPEAKER_01: and my digital archives goes back to the late 1990s.
12:26
SPEAKER_01: But when we would ask Portlanders in the late 1990s,
12:28
SPEAKER_01: was the city heading in the right direction or off on the wrong track?
12:31
SPEAKER_01: That's sort of a classic sort of pollster question.
12:34
SPEAKER_01: You know, typically partners would say 65, 75% would say that the city's headed in the right direction.
12:39
SPEAKER_01: So just like you go to your bar,
12:41
SPEAKER_01: you talk to your neighbors,
12:43
SPEAKER_01: you talk to your,
12:44
SPEAKER_01: you know,
12:45
SPEAKER_01: folks at church,
12:45
SPEAKER_01: and pretty much everybody's saying positive things about the community.
12:48
SPEAKER_01: You know, the right direction number fell down to 8, 9% in 2021, 2022.
12:54
SPEAKER_01: So now you're just like, everybody's just sour and angry.
12:57
SPEAKER_01: Now, some of that's directed at the leadership, of course.
13:00
SPEAKER_01: I mean, a lot of that's directed to leadership.
13:02
SPEAKER_01: A lot of it's just conditions in the community.
13:05
SPEAKER_01: but felt really negative.
13:06
SPEAKER_01: Now,
13:06
SPEAKER_01: if you ask people about their neighborhood,
13:08
SPEAKER_01: Portlanders have consistently said that they really like the neighborhood that they
13:12
SPEAKER_01: live in,
13:12
SPEAKER_01: but really frustrated about the city.
13:15
SPEAKER_02: Well, Wheeler has given them no reason for jumping off or having some sort of direction.
13:23
SPEAKER_02: I mean, he's been a horrible mayor ever since 2020 and
13:28
SPEAKER_02: I believe I'm all editorialized.
13:30
SPEAKER_02: I mean, you're giving us them, but I, I just think that he's just been really, really horrible.
13:35
SPEAKER_02: And then his competition in that last election or the mayor's election,
13:38
SPEAKER_02: I mean,
13:39
SPEAKER_02: that Ina Rana or whatever,
13:41
SPEAKER_02: I forget how you say her name,
13:43
SPEAKER_02: but socialist,
13:45
SPEAKER_02: right?
13:45
SPEAKER_02: I mean, so you had even somebody further crazy left running against him.
13:51
SPEAKER_02: So there really wasn't any choices for Portlanders to really,
13:55
SPEAKER_02: you know,
13:55
SPEAKER_02: like maybe they have today,
13:56
SPEAKER_02: I think that we're seeing is,
13:58
SPEAKER_02: is emerging of kind of these,
13:59
SPEAKER_02: this,
14:00
SPEAKER_02: the Vasquez and some of these other ones that are maybe kind of more a little bit
14:04
SPEAKER_02: on the moderate side of the Democrat party,
14:06
SPEAKER_02: which is what I'm used to in Portland is,
14:09
SPEAKER_02: is seeing some of the,
14:10
SPEAKER_02: you know,
14:11
SPEAKER_02: the more moderate beer cats is,
14:13
SPEAKER_02: I mean,
14:13
SPEAKER_02: I guess they're left,
14:14
SPEAKER_02: right.
14:14
SPEAKER_02: But they're not like off the deep end left and Wheeler came in, not off the deep end.
14:19
SPEAKER_02: I think Wheeler was a fairly moderate Democrat.
14:21
SPEAKER_02: I think when he first came in and,
14:23
SPEAKER_02: has kind of really moved into that direction.
14:25
SPEAKER_02: And I grew up in Portland,
14:28
SPEAKER_02: Gresham mostly,
14:29
SPEAKER_02: but to live out in rural county and to see Portland just be horrible right now,
14:36
SPEAKER_02: it's really,
14:37
SPEAKER_02: for us,
14:37
SPEAKER_02: it's just almost disgusting,
14:39
SPEAKER_02: is almost the way I can put it.
14:40
SPEAKER_02: It's like the stuff that you drive around and just the...
14:45
SPEAKER_02: I don't know, the trash and the homelessness and the graffiti and the stuff.
14:50
SPEAKER_02: When I talk to other rural Oregonians that drive through Portland, they're just like, it's just gross.
14:56
SPEAKER_02: And I think that's really the sad state of affairs of Portland because as a state,
15:03
SPEAKER_02: uh, the state goes as goes Portland.
15:06
SPEAKER_02: So does the rest of the state, you know, economically and all the other things.
15:09
SPEAKER_02: And we need a thriving Portland.
15:11
SPEAKER_02: We need the city of roses to, to be good and for our state to be healthy.
15:16
SPEAKER_02: And I just don't think we're seeing that,
15:18
SPEAKER_02: but I'm glad that they all think that they feel warm about us out here in rural
15:21
SPEAKER_02: Oregon as my community just voted to join greater Idaho here in Crook County.
15:26
SPEAKER_02: So, um,
15:29
SPEAKER_00: And I think,
15:29
SPEAKER_00: Brian,
15:30
SPEAKER_00: the other thing,
15:30
SPEAKER_00: too,
15:31
SPEAKER_00: about that,
15:31
SPEAKER_00: when I look at that number and and John,
15:33
SPEAKER_00: you're talking about this and I think we've talked about this before,
15:36
SPEAKER_00: that right direction,
15:37
SPEAKER_00: wrong track number is so far upside down.
15:41
SPEAKER_00: The number has sort of become useless because it's been so bad for so long.
15:48
SPEAKER_00: You can't really tell.
15:50
SPEAKER_00: who people are mad at anymore you can't tell if they're mad at the legislature or
15:54
SPEAKER_00: the governor or congress or the president or their senators like they're just mad
15:59
SPEAKER_00: about portland local government they're just mad about everything and the number
16:03
SPEAKER_00: has not recovered in the sense that it's clear that there's any new leaders that
16:08
SPEAKER_00: have really changed the direction enough to make a big dent i mean i think you said
16:12
SPEAKER_00: what did you say the bottom was about 2020 or 2021 during
16:15
SPEAKER_01: By 2021, so it got to 8%, 9% in Portland.
16:19
SPEAKER_01: Now, I will say it's like bounce back.
16:21
SPEAKER_01: Portland's about in the mid-20s right now.
16:24
SPEAKER_01: Right.
16:25
SPEAKER_01: And so,
16:26
SPEAKER_01: heck,
16:27
SPEAKER_01: I mean,
16:27
SPEAKER_01: mid-20s is obviously a terrible number for a community to be,
16:30
SPEAKER_01: but it's also more than double what it was a couple of years ago.
16:34
SPEAKER_01: And that number is creeping up a little bit for the state, too.
16:38
SPEAKER_01: It got into the 20s in the 2020s.
16:39
SPEAKER_01: It got to like 20%, 21% in 2021.
16:40
SPEAKER_01: Right.
16:44
SPEAKER_01: uh now it's probably in the 30s uh mid 30s again so so things are you know still
16:49
SPEAKER_01: bad but moving in a in a different direction the other thing that's notable just
16:52
SPEAKER_01: like not to talk too much about right direction wrong track but it's a classic
16:55
SPEAKER_01: question it's been asked forever so there's lots you can sort of look at it you
16:58
SPEAKER_01: know if you look at the the number for oregon
17:00
SPEAKER_01: You know, historically, Democrats, Republicans, just there wasn't hardly any difference between the two.
17:05
SPEAKER_01: So if you go back from like 2000 or the 1990s to about 2010,
17:11
SPEAKER_01: you know,
17:11
SPEAKER_01: there's average about eight,
17:13
SPEAKER_01: 10 point difference between Democrats and Republicans.
17:16
SPEAKER_01: Then you get to 2010 and then just like the urban rural divide, the partisan divide explodes too.
17:22
SPEAKER_01: But now we typically see about a 40 to 50 point gap between Democrats and
17:26
SPEAKER_01: Republicans on that question as the state had been
17:29
SPEAKER_01: direction i kind of bring those two things out because i think about just like how
17:34
SPEAKER_01: we talk about oregon politics today there's it's natural to try to put it in some
17:40
SPEAKER_01: sort of historical context or to put other historical leaders in the context that
17:44
SPEAKER_01: they were in so take tom mccall or take
17:48
SPEAKER_01: whoever you want to take.
17:50
SPEAKER_01: And they were just governing in a very, very different state than we're in today.
17:54
SPEAKER_01: So that the challenges they were faced with,
17:56
SPEAKER_01: the political challenges that they were faced with in trying to lead a state are so
18:00
SPEAKER_01: vastly different from what Governor Kotick is dealing with today.
18:03
SPEAKER_01: They just didn't have the geographic divide or the partisan divides that we have today.
18:08
SPEAKER_01: They had other challenges.
18:10
SPEAKER_01: But these are unique to Oregon's history.
18:15
SPEAKER_01: And so we sort of try to evaluate what Tina Kotick might do and sort of what does
18:20
SPEAKER_01: history tell us what she might do.
18:22
SPEAKER_01: It's a very, very different environment than Oregon has seen before.
18:27
SPEAKER_02: What is so, yeah, it's kind of a good segue to like, what are Oregonians?
18:31
SPEAKER_02: Like, what's the top issues that you're seeing right now?
18:35
SPEAKER_02: Like, what are they, the same kind of traditional issues or what are we seeing out there right now?
18:40
SPEAKER_01: Oh, actually, to answer that question, I'd like to take what have people said in the past?
18:45
SPEAKER_01: Because when we talk about what people say now...
18:50
SPEAKER_01: Of course,
18:50
SPEAKER_01: we want to pay attention to what those things are,
18:52
SPEAKER_01: but I think it's as important to pay attention to what's not coming up.
18:55
SPEAKER_01: Historically,
18:55
SPEAKER_01: if you ask Oregonians,
18:56
SPEAKER_01: and I suspect it would be true if you ask Washingtonians or Idaho residents or
19:00
SPEAKER_01: wherever else you want to go,
19:01
SPEAKER_01: it's jobs and the economy and it's capable of education.
19:04
SPEAKER_01: Those are the bread and butter issues for a state government to local government.
19:13
SPEAKER_01: Healthcare would pop in there from time to time and some local communities used to
19:16
SPEAKER_01: see crime pop up from time to time.
19:18
SPEAKER_01: But it was jobs and the economy, K-12 education.
19:21
SPEAKER_01: Do we have a safe place to live and do our kids have opportunities for the future?
19:24
SPEAKER_01: And can I pay my bills and get ahead?
19:28
SPEAKER_01: I mean, those sorts of things were always what's important to people.
19:33
SPEAKER_01: You get to, you know, about 2018, 2019...
19:38
SPEAKER_01: And then what you see is homelessness really take over.
19:42
SPEAKER_01: And it just, it's out of front by far in a way of any other issue.
19:47
SPEAKER_01: And then right now, sort of what would follow behind it would be crime and drugs.
19:52
SPEAKER_01: There's
19:53
SPEAKER_01: You know,
19:53
SPEAKER_01: differences between these things,
19:54
SPEAKER_01: but sort of as a category and cost of living really as it relates to housing.
20:00
SPEAKER_01: Now,
20:00
SPEAKER_01: what I would really stress is that these are the issues that are top of mind in Portland,
20:05
SPEAKER_01: the top of mind in Salem,
20:07
SPEAKER_01: the top of mind in Coos County.
20:11
SPEAKER_01: You're going to see them in Jackson County,
20:13
SPEAKER_01: that these are not like homelessness or drugs are not just concerns of Portland
20:17
SPEAKER_01: residents or urban residents,
20:18
SPEAKER_01: that these are problems that we're hearing in urban and rural communities across
20:22
SPEAKER_01: the state that are really acute.
20:25
SPEAKER_01: And homelessness has really just took over as an issue and it's really about 2018, 2019.
20:32
SPEAKER_01: And as we saw, political leaders were just extremely slow to respond to voters' concerns around it.
20:39
SPEAKER_01: There's probably different reasons why, but the one I would call out is that I'm not the policy guy.
20:46
SPEAKER_01: I'm not the one who's trying to craft policy or to suggest what is right.
20:50
SPEAKER_01: But I would say from a public opinion standpoint,
20:53
SPEAKER_01: what we heard over and over and over again was that homelessness is an issue with
20:58
SPEAKER_01: mental illness and drug addiction.
21:00
SPEAKER_03: Mm-hmm.
21:01
SPEAKER_01: And what they heard from advocates and policymakers is homelessness is a problem with housing.
21:07
SPEAKER_01: And the two sides have just been talking past each other for a long time.
21:11
SPEAKER_01: I think a lot of elected officials just simply weren't willing to address or hear
21:16
SPEAKER_01: or react to what everyday people felt like was happening in their communities.
21:21
SPEAKER_01: And everyday voters just felt like, what are politicians talking about?
21:25
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
21:26
SPEAKER_01: I see the folks on the street.
21:29
SPEAKER_01: They're doing drugs and committing crimes.
21:32
SPEAKER_01: It's just not a housing issue.
21:33
SPEAKER_01: Again, I'm not the policy guy.
21:36
SPEAKER_01: I'm not here to say which one was right or wrong,
21:37
SPEAKER_01: but I will tell you that voters over the last four or five years just have felt
21:42
SPEAKER_01: that they haven't been heard.
21:43
SPEAKER_02: I was just going to say on the homelessness stuff,
21:48
SPEAKER_02: I really feel,
21:50
SPEAKER_02: well,
21:50
SPEAKER_02: of course,
21:51
SPEAKER_02: I'm a Republican,
21:51
SPEAKER_02: so I feel like in 2021,
21:54
SPEAKER_02: When,
21:55
SPEAKER_02: you know,
21:56
SPEAKER_02: then Speaker Kotick was pushing 3115,
21:59
SPEAKER_02: which was basically allowing people to camp wherever the heck they want and allow
22:03
SPEAKER_02: more homelessness stuff.
22:05
SPEAKER_02: I think that that was in Republicans were all,
22:08
SPEAKER_02: you know,
22:08
SPEAKER_02: voting no on those on that bill and those sort of bills.
22:11
SPEAKER_02: I think we kind of saw that maybe is like, hey, this is a problem, whereas Democrats didn't.
22:17
SPEAKER_02: historically are always like, oh, there's a downtrodden group of people.
22:21
SPEAKER_02: We must save them kind of thing.
22:23
SPEAKER_02: And here's what they're trying to do.
22:24
SPEAKER_02: And I feel like we were seeing that as an issue and trying to push back against it.
22:30
SPEAKER_02: I know that we fought vehemently against 3115.
22:34
SPEAKER_02: And now we kind of see that as it may be.
22:37
SPEAKER_02: Now homelessness is everywhere.
22:40
SPEAKER_02: Even in Central Oregon, like when I moved to Bend, even up through the Great Recession,
22:46
SPEAKER_02: There was zero homeless people.
22:48
SPEAKER_02: Like, you wouldn't see a homeless person at all.
22:50
SPEAKER_02: And then come post-COVID, it's everywhere.
22:53
SPEAKER_02: Like, rampant.
22:54
SPEAKER_02: And it's truly, like, to your point, it's not a Portland problem anymore.
22:59
SPEAKER_02: It's everywhere.
23:00
SPEAKER_02: We have them in Crook County where I live here in Prineville.
23:02
SPEAKER_02: And it's a problem.
23:06
SPEAKER_00: And I would say,
23:06
SPEAKER_00: Brian,
23:07
SPEAKER_00: I think to my my political observation on that front,
23:10
SPEAKER_00: based sort of on John's data,
23:11
SPEAKER_00: is that there was a far left,
23:15
SPEAKER_00: like most of the far left element of Democrats were really pushing it as a housing
23:19
SPEAKER_00: issue because they're sort of in this destigmatized mental health situation.
23:24
SPEAKER_00: They're trying to get away from committing people to a mental hospital.
23:28
SPEAKER_00: So it doesn't it's not really a convenient narrative for them to say it's a mental
23:32
SPEAKER_00: health problem if they're trying to get away from that,
23:35
SPEAKER_00: trying to move people out of the state hospital into local communities where there
23:38
SPEAKER_00: just aren't resources.
23:39
SPEAKER_00: And I think, you know, there's we've just now started looking at in the short session.
23:45
SPEAKER_00: I think there is some funding for behavioral health,
23:46
SPEAKER_00: but it's going to take a long time for that stuff to pay off.
23:50
SPEAKER_00: To John's point,
23:50
SPEAKER_00: and also sort of the environmental effort to prevent a significant increase in home
23:56
SPEAKER_00: building that circumvents our urban growth boundary process,
24:02
SPEAKER_00: which is a process that was built to slow down development.
24:09
SPEAKER_00: And intentionally so.
24:10
SPEAKER_00: I mean, I think that the people that support it would say that's the goal is to slow the development.
24:15
SPEAKER_00: And you can't increase your housing supply quickly if you have the system built to
24:21
SPEAKER_00: slow development,
24:22
SPEAKER_00: right?
24:22
SPEAKER_00: And so I think there's a lot of these classic
24:25
SPEAKER_00: You know,
24:25
SPEAKER_00: and the urban growth boundaries sort of held up as one of those classic Oregon
24:29
SPEAKER_00: pillars of why we're special.
24:31
SPEAKER_00: You know, it goes in the same category for a lot of people's like vote by mail.
24:34
SPEAKER_00: But it's it's now inhibiting this thing that they say is a huge problem.
24:39
SPEAKER_00: And you've seen Governor Kotek sort of battle with environmental elements because of that.
24:44
SPEAKER_00: And so it's kind of interesting to see the polling say this is the problem.
24:48
SPEAKER_00: And we think it's a how we think this is a solution.
24:51
SPEAKER_00: It's mental health more related and Democrats sort of.
24:55
SPEAKER_00: start talking about sacrificing a sacred cow almost, but then battle internally about how to do that.
25:01
SPEAKER_00: It's just sort of, it's sort of super fascinating.
25:04
SPEAKER_00: And then on the Republican side,
25:05
SPEAKER_00: I think the small government,
25:08
SPEAKER_00: I think the problem that we run into is like,
25:10
SPEAKER_00: a lot of the element of our party that's kind of more conservative really doesn't
25:14
SPEAKER_00: want to apply any government funding to these solutions.
25:17
SPEAKER_00: And I think that while there's valid concerns about how the money is getting spent
25:22
SPEAKER_00: and it could be used more efficiently,
25:24
SPEAKER_00: I think that saying that you can't have any government intervention in this problem,
25:29
SPEAKER_00: I just did a local poll and there was a question about who do you think can solve
25:32
SPEAKER_00: the housing problem.
25:33
SPEAKER_00: And it was split about the two highest categories were developers and government.
25:39
SPEAKER_00: And so it's pretty clear that people see that the government needs to be involved here.
25:42
SPEAKER_00: Now,
25:43
SPEAKER_00: maybe it's getting them out of the way and simplifying whatever,
25:45
SPEAKER_00: but that's still you to put resources into doing those kinds of things.
25:48
SPEAKER_00: And I think that's where you sort of see the far polarization of the two parties really hurt.
25:55
SPEAKER_00: their ability and maybe this is what has driven the urban world divide a little bit
25:58
SPEAKER_00: more is it's it's created more opportunities for us to talk past each other instead
26:03
SPEAKER_00: of to each other about how we might do these solutions and then pick a solution
26:07
SPEAKER_00: that's somewhere in the middle and now you just get these swings and since we've
26:10
SPEAKER_00: been democratic trolled for so long it's been far left solutions for a long time
26:14
SPEAKER_00: not as many in the middle but that i mean that's just sort of my thought on it so
26:19
SPEAKER_00: john um getting back to those issues you're saying top issue is homelessness
26:25
SPEAKER_00: Is that are these consistent for both parties?
26:27
SPEAKER_00: Because in some of the polls I see the environment will pop up as like the third
26:31
SPEAKER_00: most important issue for Democrats.
26:33
SPEAKER_00: That's very rarely a Republican issue.
26:35
SPEAKER_00: Are there issues that are top of mind, maybe in top three or four for one party, but not the other?
26:41
SPEAKER_01: Well, no, those are the big ones for both Democrats and Republicans, for sure.
26:46
SPEAKER_01: There's some differences in intensity,
26:48
SPEAKER_01: like Republicans are going to be somewhat more concerned about crime.
26:50
SPEAKER_01: And there's some differences with,
26:54
SPEAKER_01: even though homelessness is a concern across the state,
26:57
SPEAKER_01: it's going to be a top issue across the state,
26:58
SPEAKER_01: it is more intense in the Portland metro area than it is in some other places in
27:01
SPEAKER_01: the state.
27:02
SPEAKER_01: With climate, it depends on who you ask about it.
27:04
SPEAKER_01: Like, if you ask an open-ended question, tell us what's important.
27:07
SPEAKER_01: Climate will probably get two, three...
27:10
SPEAKER_01: percent of responses saying that that's,
27:12
SPEAKER_01: that's the thing that they're most concerned about,
27:14
SPEAKER_01: or is the top priority for the state,
27:15
SPEAKER_01: you can frame it in different ways.
27:16
SPEAKER_01: Now,
27:17
SPEAKER_01: for Democrats,
27:17
SPEAKER_01: maybe it's six or seven and Republicans,
27:19
SPEAKER_01: it's I don't know,
27:20
SPEAKER_01: one half of one quarter of a third of a percent,
27:22
SPEAKER_01: right?
27:23
SPEAKER_03: It's gonna be really small.
27:24
SPEAKER_01: And if you
27:25
SPEAKER_01: If you ask directly, you know, Democrats in particular will tell you that it's an important issue.
27:29
SPEAKER_01: Republicans will say absolutely it's not.
27:31
SPEAKER_01: Climate is probably the most,
27:33
SPEAKER_01: like from a public opinion,
27:34
SPEAKER_01: like if you ask a pollster question,
27:36
SPEAKER_01: it probably is the most polarizing issue.
27:39
SPEAKER_01: I'm not sure if it's the most polarizing in terms of like policymaking,
27:43
SPEAKER_01: There may be some other, you guys probably have a better sense of that than I do.
27:46
SPEAKER_01: But like if you just ask people, is this something an issue or not?
27:48
SPEAKER_01: And Democrats line up on one side and Republicans absolutely line up on the other side.
27:54
SPEAKER_01: But it's not a top issue for climate.
27:58
SPEAKER_01: It's not a top issue for everyday voters.
28:01
SPEAKER_01: It is a top issue for advocates and for people who can move money around.
28:06
SPEAKER_01: And I think it's a real priority for people who wanna engage in politics.
28:10
SPEAKER_01: And so for political leaders,
28:12
SPEAKER_01: either for their own personal interests,
28:13
SPEAKER_01: I don't mean to slight them,
28:15
SPEAKER_01: but like what,
28:16
SPEAKER_01: you know,
28:16
SPEAKER_01: gets them up in the morning,
28:19
SPEAKER_01: or for folks who are going to allocate dollars,
28:21
SPEAKER_01: whether it's foundations or political donors,
28:23
SPEAKER_01: whatever,
28:23
SPEAKER_01: it's really important for them.
28:24
SPEAKER_01: So it's going to drive a lot of democratic politics because of that.
28:30
SPEAKER_02: Can you go just take me one step further from an issue like take homelessness and I
28:36
SPEAKER_02: probably disagree with Reagan on that.
28:38
SPEAKER_02: I don't think housing is the problem.
28:39
SPEAKER_02: I don't know the cause like the root.
28:41
SPEAKER_02: Everybody talks about root cause of homelessness.
28:43
SPEAKER_02: It's not a lack of housing.
28:45
SPEAKER_02: These people are buying homes in the West Hills of Portland anytime soon that are homeless.
28:50
SPEAKER_02: I mean, they're.
28:51
SPEAKER_02: The fact is they'd be lucky to get into a Section 8 housing if they're,
28:55
SPEAKER_02: you know,
28:55
SPEAKER_02: they're not pillars of our community.
28:58
SPEAKER_02: I think it's just all drugs that drives homelessness.
29:00
SPEAKER_02: But I always think that everybody agrees like kind of on what the issue is.
29:06
SPEAKER_02: Like,
29:07
SPEAKER_02: I feel like those unite us like we did in the Democrats,
29:11
SPEAKER_02: Republicans came together,
29:12
SPEAKER_02: fixed measure 110,
29:13
SPEAKER_02: right?
29:13
SPEAKER_02: In the legislature, usually the solutions is what divides us.
29:17
SPEAKER_02: And I think that's where,
29:19
SPEAKER_02: like with homelessness,
29:20
SPEAKER_02: like what are,
29:20
SPEAKER_02: do you guys get a sense of like,
29:22
SPEAKER_02: do you go like,
29:23
SPEAKER_02: okay,
29:24
SPEAKER_02: homelessness is a number one issue or it's a,
29:26
SPEAKER_02: you're out there.
29:28
SPEAKER_02: What is,
29:28
SPEAKER_02: do you then ask,
29:29
SPEAKER_02: like,
29:30
SPEAKER_02: if we did this as a solution or if we did that as a solution,
29:33
SPEAKER_02: do we know where the public's at with like,
29:34
SPEAKER_02: how do you solve it?
29:36
SPEAKER_01: We have some sense.
29:37
SPEAKER_01: So one thing is I think more or less Republicans,
29:41
SPEAKER_01: whether they're right or not,
29:43
SPEAKER_01: other people can judge,
29:44
SPEAKER_01: but I think they more align what you're describing,
29:47
SPEAKER_01: Brian,
29:47
SPEAKER_01: sort of sense that it's,
29:49
SPEAKER_01: It's a personal responsibility,
29:51
SPEAKER_01: personal failing,
29:53
SPEAKER_01: either because your mind's not working right or you're making bad choices,
29:57
SPEAKER_01: but it has to do with the individual,
29:59
SPEAKER_01: right?
29:59
SPEAKER_01: And more or less, Republicans, right-leaning people line up with that.
30:03
SPEAKER_01: And for Democrats, I think they're just divided.
30:06
SPEAKER_01: They think it's a mix of different things or the coalition is made up of people who
30:10
SPEAKER_01: have different opinions about it,
30:12
SPEAKER_01: which makes it,
30:13
SPEAKER_01: even though the public thinks
30:15
SPEAKER_01: may be on the side of we need to do more with mental health and drug addiction to address homelessness.
30:22
SPEAKER_01: Because the Democrats are divided on the issue and they're in power,
30:24
SPEAKER_01: it makes it difficult for them to,
30:26
SPEAKER_01: you know,
30:27
SPEAKER_01: move forward in a coordinated way that's going to feel like they can keep their
30:31
SPEAKER_01: constituents happy.
30:33
SPEAKER_01: And so I think that's part of it,
30:34
SPEAKER_01: like where the public is at and then like where the political actors who are in power,
30:40
SPEAKER_01: I think that there's this issue that divides them.
30:42
SPEAKER_01: But
30:45
SPEAKER_01: there are some some things like you know people would want portlanders democrats i
30:50
SPEAKER_01: think oregonians would want to invest a lot more in mental health and drug
30:54
SPEAKER_01: addiction treatment
30:58
SPEAKER_01: They would want to invest more in housing,
31:01
SPEAKER_01: although housing is so tricky because it's one thing to say you want more housing,
31:05
SPEAKER_01: but when we ask people in surveys what types of housing drives down the price of housing,
31:11
SPEAKER_01: and Oregonians,
31:13
SPEAKER_01: I don't think it's unique to Oregon,
31:14
SPEAKER_01: they just don't believe in supply and demand when it comes to housing.
31:17
SPEAKER_01: There's only one type of housing they think actually brings down the cost of housing,
31:21
SPEAKER_01: which is low-income housing in somebody else's neighborhood.
31:26
SPEAKER_02: Um, and so housing don't people want, I think you guys actually did the poll.
31:32
SPEAKER_02: I read like the,
31:32
SPEAKER_02: the realtors association did a polling on what type of house,
31:37
SPEAKER_02: any like 73% of Oregonians want a detached single family home.
31:42
SPEAKER_02: That's true.
31:44
SPEAKER_01: It's true.
31:45
SPEAKER_01: We've done that work here in Oregon.
31:46
SPEAKER_01: We just finished a project not too long ago up in the Puget Sound in Seattle area.
31:50
SPEAKER_01: And so you think of these big urban places where, you know, people want to live in big cities.
31:54
SPEAKER_01: And so it's going to be city living in condos and glass towers and overwhelmingly urban.
32:01
SPEAKER_01: You want to live in single-family detached homes.
32:04
SPEAKER_02: To your point,
32:05
SPEAKER_02: so the policymakers,
32:07
SPEAKER_02: the Democrats who are in charge,
32:09
SPEAKER_02: are trying to drive these affordable housing,
32:11
SPEAKER_02: workforce housing,
32:13
SPEAKER_02: build up,
32:14
SPEAKER_02: not out,
32:16
SPEAKER_02: especially in the metro area.
32:18
SPEAKER_02: But it goes against what people actually want to buy.
32:21
SPEAKER_02: It goes against what people want.
32:23
SPEAKER_01: Where it goes against people want to buy from a polling perspective,
32:26
SPEAKER_01: what people tell us and their actual real preference,
32:28
SPEAKER_01: what do they actually purchase?
32:29
SPEAKER_01: Right.
32:31
SPEAKER_01: So,
32:31
SPEAKER_01: yeah,
32:31
SPEAKER_01: the Democrats,
32:32
SPEAKER_01: like they're in a bind,
32:33
SPEAKER_01: I think,
32:33
SPEAKER_01: when it comes to this,
32:34
SPEAKER_01: it's really difficult problems to solve.
32:36
SPEAKER_01: And I would compliment Governor Kotick with regards to she is she is.
32:44
SPEAKER_01: said to the environmental community, I'm on the other side of this issue.
32:48
SPEAKER_01: And that's difficult for a politician to do.
32:52
SPEAKER_01: And right now,
32:53
SPEAKER_01: I think the environment community is still hanging with her,
32:56
SPEAKER_01: but she hasn't been in touch with her,
32:59
SPEAKER_01: or she's been in touch.
33:00
SPEAKER_01: She hasn't followed their lead on that.
33:02
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, with the housing package and stuff that came through.
33:05
SPEAKER_02: And I have even on this program,
33:08
SPEAKER_02: I've applauded her for,
33:10
SPEAKER_02: you know,
33:10
SPEAKER_02: going up against OLCV,
33:12
SPEAKER_02: which isn't easy in their caucus and their party to go up against,
33:16
SPEAKER_02: you know,
33:16
SPEAKER_02: that's a powerful group out there.
33:18
SPEAKER_02: And they really, you know, they're no growthers at the end of the day.
33:22
SPEAKER_02: And she kind of went up against them.
33:23
SPEAKER_02: She did bend a little bit.
33:24
SPEAKER_02: I mean, we were wanting 125 acres into the UGB and stuff, and it went down to 30 or something, 40.
33:30
SPEAKER_02: But I think that she's done a pretty decent job in trying to say,
33:35
SPEAKER_02: to your point,
33:36
SPEAKER_02: that you have to have land supply.
33:40
SPEAKER_02: There's no way to drive down the cost of housing without affordable land.
33:44
SPEAKER_02: It's just not viable.
33:48
SPEAKER_02: And at the end of the day, it has to be a market-driven thing.
33:52
SPEAKER_02: developer driven solution to the housing problem.
33:57
SPEAKER_02: You can't, we can't spend our way out of a housing problem.
34:02
SPEAKER_02: You know,
34:02
SPEAKER_02: it has to be a market driven and maybe that's where Republicans and Democrats
34:05
SPEAKER_02: probably divide on that issue too.
34:06
SPEAKER_02: But I just feel like,
34:08
SPEAKER_02: I mean,
34:08
SPEAKER_02: talking to all these experts that I know in the housing industry that you have to
34:13
SPEAKER_02: have at the end of the day,
34:14
SPEAKER_02: you have to have land that's a little bit cheaper.
34:17
SPEAKER_02: And the only way to get that is land that's not in the city yet.
34:22
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, and I think your point's well taken, John.
34:25
SPEAKER_00: And Brian, I was agreeing with you.
34:27
SPEAKER_00: I agree on the market-based stuff.
34:29
SPEAKER_00: I was just pointing out how Democrats are divided on the issue and trying to say
34:34
SPEAKER_00: that it was only housing that can fix it.
34:36
SPEAKER_00: Because we're talking about two different problems, sort of.
34:40
SPEAKER_00: Because the people on the street for homelessness...
34:44
SPEAKER_00: I do think predominantly it's because they got tangled up in in drugs or,
34:50
SPEAKER_00: you know,
34:50
SPEAKER_00: and so that but that's a separate issue from the affordability of housing.
34:54
SPEAKER_00: And a lot of people,
34:55
SPEAKER_00: when they're talking about homelessness,
34:56
SPEAKER_00: they're lumping the two together because the affordability of housing for people
35:00
SPEAKER_00: that do have jobs and are just trying to pay their rent and are just trying to pay
35:04
SPEAKER_00: their mortgage like.
35:05
SPEAKER_00: It's sort of tough because I think these two problems are getting lumped in together.
35:10
SPEAKER_00: And I think, as you pointed out, John, the Democrats are a little bit divided on it.
35:14
SPEAKER_00: And so I think they're actually the ones that are sort of twisting them together a
35:17
SPEAKER_00: little bit because of that.
35:19
SPEAKER_00: And so it makes it a little bit harder to work through those issues because housing
35:24
SPEAKER_00: affordability is a problem,
35:25
SPEAKER_00: not just for the homeless.
35:27
SPEAKER_00: It's for everyone.
35:28
SPEAKER_00: working people, middle class people too.
35:32
SPEAKER_00: And even when,
35:32
SPEAKER_00: you know,
35:33
SPEAKER_00: people get concerned about,
35:34
SPEAKER_00: you know,
35:34
SPEAKER_00: Brian,
35:35
SPEAKER_00: I think this is one where it's not intuitive,
35:37
SPEAKER_00: but you're like,
35:38
SPEAKER_00: you know,
35:39
SPEAKER_00: trickle down home building where if you build a five,
35:41
SPEAKER_00: if somebody builds a $5 million house,
35:43
SPEAKER_00: they're moving out of their $2 million house.
35:45
SPEAKER_00: And then somebody's buying their $2 million house and they're moving out of their
35:49
SPEAKER_00: $500,000 house and it just trickles down.
35:50
SPEAKER_00: Right.
35:50
SPEAKER_00: And so there's,
35:51
SPEAKER_00: there's some sort of supply stuff that I think,
35:54
SPEAKER_00: John,
35:54
SPEAKER_00: as you pointed out,
35:55
SPEAKER_00: voters don't seem to be super in tune with all of that.
35:58
SPEAKER_00: They just think you stand up a bunch of workforce housing and your problem is solved.
36:01
SPEAKER_00: And it might, but there's so many processes and ways to get to that solution that it's complicated.
36:08
SPEAKER_01: When I'm doing focus groups with folks and the issue of homelessness comes up,
36:12
SPEAKER_01: what they describe,
36:15
SPEAKER_01: the images that they paint for us are people in tents,
36:20
SPEAKER_01: in walkways,
36:20
SPEAKER_01: in
36:22
SPEAKER_01: often using drugs, often mentally unwell, and creating a sense for them of unsafety, of disorder, chaos.
36:33
SPEAKER_01: When I talk to people who are
36:36
SPEAKER_01: advocating around the issue,
36:38
SPEAKER_01: whether they're nonprofits or home builders or whatever,
36:41
SPEAKER_01: I probably more complete picture what it is.
36:45
SPEAKER_01: So I think when the voters saying,
36:48
SPEAKER_01: quote unquote homelessness,
36:50
SPEAKER_01: what they're saying is there's a sense of disorder in my community that makes me
36:54
SPEAKER_01: very uncomfortable.
36:56
SPEAKER_01: And they want that dealt with.
36:57
SPEAKER_01: And then the term that we're using to describe is homelessness.
37:01
SPEAKER_01: And then when people in the advocacy community talk about homelessness,
37:04
SPEAKER_01: they're frankly just talking about something that's part of it.
37:09
SPEAKER_01: But it's not just that.
37:13
SPEAKER_01: When people are describing homelessness, they're talking those very visual images.
37:17
SPEAKER_01: It just makes them feel uncomfortable or embarrassed for their community.
37:22
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, I think you're right.
37:23
SPEAKER_02: housing is a tough one.
37:25
SPEAKER_02: And like you said, I think you're right.
37:26
SPEAKER_02: The blending,
37:27
SPEAKER_02: both of you've talked about the blending of the issues because on,
37:31
SPEAKER_02: on the doors,
37:32
SPEAKER_02: when my candidates are out on the doors talking to people,
37:35
SPEAKER_02: like they,
37:35
SPEAKER_02: they,
37:36
SPEAKER_02: they're talking about kind of the big bucket of housing homelessness.
37:41
SPEAKER_02: You know, my kids can't afford a house.
37:43
SPEAKER_02: Like it all seems to be in the same conversation.
37:46
SPEAKER_02: And I think as policymakers out there,
37:49
SPEAKER_02: We got to really start dividing those things up and say,
37:53
SPEAKER_02: what's,
37:54
SPEAKER_02: and we tried doing this even in the short session,
37:56
SPEAKER_02: where it's like,
37:57
SPEAKER_02: okay,
37:57
SPEAKER_02: here's the low end of the housing market,
38:00
SPEAKER_02: right?
38:00
SPEAKER_02: The Section 8 homeless people on the street,
38:05
SPEAKER_02: getting them off the street,
38:06
SPEAKER_02: like you have to like divide that.
38:08
SPEAKER_02: And then you have the other group where you're trying to like first-time homebuyers and then beyond.
38:13
SPEAKER_02: It's like, now how do we segment those two and eventually you want to move, right?
38:17
SPEAKER_02: We'd love to get somebody that's homeless and move them into some sort of a
38:23
SPEAKER_02: government housing of some kind and they get well and they get a job and then they
38:26
SPEAKER_02: move to their own apartment and they're spending their own money and
38:29
SPEAKER_02: And then eventually they buy their single family home that's detached with a white bigot fence.
38:33
SPEAKER_02: But the reality doesn't really work that way.
38:35
SPEAKER_02: There's kind of a weird back and forth, like where do RVs fit into that?
38:40
SPEAKER_02: Where do the mobile home parks fit into that?
38:41
SPEAKER_02: Because I remember just as a kid,
38:43
SPEAKER_02: like that's kind of where that was the low income housing was mobile home parks.
38:47
SPEAKER_02: And we don't build those anymore.
38:49
SPEAKER_02: We don't build the things that was kind of like that step through housing that we don't have anymore.
38:53
SPEAKER_02: And it's very interesting to see how we're going to get there with housing because
39:01
SPEAKER_02: the price of houses just keeps going up and up and up and
39:05
SPEAKER_02: But we only build, and we've only ever built, 25,000 to 30,000 units a year.
39:11
SPEAKER_02: It's pretty difficult to build above that, I think, no matter how much money.
39:15
SPEAKER_02: And I think what the government wants is 38,000 a year, I think, is what we need.
39:19
SPEAKER_02: And we can't even...
39:20
SPEAKER_02: We didn't even get to the numbers we had the year before she set the projections.
39:26
SPEAKER_01: One other thing to bring to this,
39:28
SPEAKER_01: in the survey that we're just getting out of the field now,
39:30
SPEAKER_01: we did ask this question,
39:33
SPEAKER_01: and we framed it up as Oregon's population has declined in recent years,
39:36
SPEAKER_01: and then asked if that's good or bad.
39:39
SPEAKER_01: And Oregon's are really ambivalent.
39:42
SPEAKER_01: More people say it's good than bad.
39:44
SPEAKER_01: Most say it's neither.
39:46
SPEAKER_01: But there's not this overwhelming sense that things are bad for population decline for the state.
39:52
SPEAKER_01: Now, there's issues with the economy with that.
39:55
SPEAKER_01: There's lots of things going on with a question like that.
40:00
SPEAKER_01: And I don't know if that answer to that question would be different in a place like,
40:04
SPEAKER_01: say,
40:04
SPEAKER_01: Colorado or Nevada or,
40:07
SPEAKER_01: I don't know,
40:08
SPEAKER_01: some other place.
40:09
SPEAKER_01: But Oregonians are pretty ambivalent about growth.
40:13
SPEAKER_01: And it's hard to build housing in a state where people aren't sure if they want more people to come.
40:19
SPEAKER_01: And the classic Tom McCall, come visit, don't stay.
40:23
SPEAKER_01: But he was describing something real about Oregonians then and I think today still.
40:29
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, I agree.
40:30
SPEAKER_02: Well, Hey, let's we can hop off housing.
40:32
SPEAKER_02: And what do you,
40:33
SPEAKER_02: so what,
40:33
SPEAKER_02: what,
40:33
SPEAKER_02: like,
40:34
SPEAKER_02: let's maybe let's get a like little,
40:35
SPEAKER_02: what's the,
40:36
SPEAKER_02: the upcoming issues?
40:37
SPEAKER_02: Like what are the like border?
40:39
SPEAKER_02: Well, a new one, I think you're even doing cell phones with kids.
40:42
SPEAKER_02: Talk to me about that in schools.
40:44
SPEAKER_02: Like what's,
40:45
SPEAKER_02: Are you guys testing that at all or other issues?
40:48
SPEAKER_01: Well, we're testing it because it's a hot issue.
40:50
SPEAKER_01: So people are talking about it.
40:51
SPEAKER_01: So we want to just put our finger in the wind and see where folks are at.
40:54
SPEAKER_01: So we did recently test in the survey whether or not Oregonians would support some
40:58
SPEAKER_01: sort of bans on cell phones or smartphones.
41:00
SPEAKER_01: I think we framed it in schools.
41:03
SPEAKER_01: And the answer is yes.
41:05
SPEAKER_01: Overwhelmingly.
41:06
SPEAKER_02: That's why the Democrats are talking about it, Reagan.
41:09
SPEAKER_02: They did a poll.
41:11
SPEAKER_02: They probably hired John and they got out in front of it.
41:14
SPEAKER_02: And so now they're out there running around saying we need to ban cell phones.
41:17
SPEAKER_02: That's how we solve education in Oregon.
41:19
SPEAKER_00: Brian,
41:20
SPEAKER_00: before we let John finish this,
41:21
SPEAKER_00: I just did a quick Google search because I swear yesterday I saw an article about a
41:26
SPEAKER_00: new district that had banned them in Oregon.
41:29
SPEAKER_00: And so I didn't find that, but I found two things.
41:33
SPEAKER_00: First one.
41:34
SPEAKER_00: So back to September 2023,
41:37
SPEAKER_00: Westland-Wilsonville School District has an outright ban on phone use in middle
41:41
SPEAKER_00: schools and I think high schools too.
41:43
SPEAKER_00: And then the third article down,
41:47
SPEAKER_00: which I laughed so hard at,
41:50
SPEAKER_00: cell phone bans ineffective,
41:51
SPEAKER_00: many students say.
41:52
SPEAKER_00: Right.
41:54
SPEAKER_00: The students are mad.
41:55
SPEAKER_00: We're taking their phones, which is a normal response.
42:00
SPEAKER_00: But I think what's sort of interesting to me is I've gotten two responses on this.
42:04
SPEAKER_00: You see the Ron DeSantis, and it's sort of bipartisan, cracking down on cell phones.
42:09
SPEAKER_00: But
42:10
SPEAKER_00: What I've heard some anecdotally is that locally, principals have been able to do this.
42:17
SPEAKER_00: A principal could say, a teacher could say, no phones in my schools.
42:22
SPEAKER_00: A superintendent could say, no phones in any of our schools.
42:24
SPEAKER_00: They haven't.
42:25
SPEAKER_00: And the reason typically they haven't,
42:28
SPEAKER_00: even though the polling is positive,
42:30
SPEAKER_00: the response from certain segments of parents,
42:34
SPEAKER_00: which some may refer to as helicopter parents,
42:37
SPEAKER_00: It can tend to be somewhat negative.
42:40
SPEAKER_00: I can't reach my kid or whatever.
42:42
SPEAKER_00: I was homeschooled.
42:44
SPEAKER_00: Brian, you were not in school as recently as my wife.
42:49
SPEAKER_00: I asked my wife.
42:50
SPEAKER_00: She said when I was in high school in Albany, the rule was your phone...
42:57
SPEAKER_00: I didn't want to say it right there.
43:00
SPEAKER_00: She said the rule was, and this was right before smartphones.
43:03
SPEAKER_00: So probably a little bit different because smartphones are sort of a different
43:05
SPEAKER_00: animal phone stayed in your bag.
43:07
SPEAKER_00: You could take it out after your work was done and at lunch basically.
43:10
SPEAKER_00: And a lot of people would be like,
43:11
SPEAKER_00: that would be a great policy,
43:13
SPEAKER_00: but sort of the problem with smartphones is the social media element that's brought
43:16
SPEAKER_00: in and how that can be,
43:17
SPEAKER_00: you know,
43:18
SPEAKER_00: a lot more addictive and more difficult to,
43:21
SPEAKER_00: you know,
43:21
SPEAKER_00: just skip instead of just,
43:22
SPEAKER_00: you know,
43:22
SPEAKER_00: mostly just texting.
43:23
SPEAKER_00: Right.
43:24
SPEAKER_00: So, um,
43:24
SPEAKER_00: But it's fascinating to me that I'm sort of hearing these two responses on the one hand,
43:28
SPEAKER_00: very positive,
43:29
SPEAKER_00: generally overall.
43:31
SPEAKER_00: But my guess is that if you broke down into parents with school age children,
43:35
SPEAKER_00: especially in middle and high school,
43:37
SPEAKER_00: you may get a more split response.
43:39
SPEAKER_00: I don't know.
43:39
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, so in our survey, we don't have enough.
43:42
SPEAKER_01: So just some quick numbers, right?
43:43
SPEAKER_01: In this particular survey,
43:46
SPEAKER_01: and this is more of a point about doing survey research about issues like education,
43:50
SPEAKER_01: you know,
43:50
SPEAKER_01: roughly kind of round numbers,
43:52
SPEAKER_01: one out of four voters has a school-aged child in the household.
43:56
SPEAKER_01: So if you're going to do a statewide survey and ask about education issues,
43:58
SPEAKER_01: you're necessarily going to sweep up lots of folks who aren't dealing with that
44:03
SPEAKER_01: issue directly.
44:04
SPEAKER_01: Now, they're voters.
44:05
SPEAKER_01: They can have an opinion about something.
44:06
SPEAKER_01: They can put pressure on their school board or whatever.
44:12
SPEAKER_01: But also,
44:13
SPEAKER_01: because of that,
44:13
SPEAKER_01: we don't have enough to sort of dig into just parents and say we're parents or
44:17
SPEAKER_01: parents are high school students.
44:19
SPEAKER_00: Your sample would be too small.
44:21
SPEAKER_00: It'd be maybe 100 or 125 in a 500 sample.
44:24
SPEAKER_01: Exactly.
44:25
SPEAKER_01: I just think observationally,
44:27
SPEAKER_01: part of what's going on here is that Republicans with broad strokes feel like the
44:35
SPEAKER_01: kids have gotten out of control.
44:36
SPEAKER_01: And one way that they got out of control is with phones and
44:40
SPEAKER_01: this is a way to bring control to the school to have the adults in charge and sort of that narrative.
44:46
SPEAKER_01: I mean, it's not as simple as that, but sort of directionally, I think that's what's going on.
44:49
SPEAKER_01: And then on the Democratic side,
44:51
SPEAKER_01: there's just this overwhelming concern and maybe justified,
44:55
SPEAKER_01: I don't want to suggest it's not,
44:58
SPEAKER_01: about mental health with kids,
45:00
SPEAKER_01: particularly teenage kids,
45:01
SPEAKER_01: I'd say particularly teenage girls,
45:03
SPEAKER_01: and that phones are a driver.
45:04
SPEAKER_01: You see that with Jonathan Haidt and his new work, and it's kind of, it's big on the sort of
45:10
SPEAKER_01: the,
45:10
SPEAKER_01: the sort of left intelligentsia sort of about this concerns for,
45:14
SPEAKER_01: for kids and the role that phones have in that.
45:17
SPEAKER_01: So I do think there's some alignment on the, on the two sides with this particular issue.
45:21
SPEAKER_01: And it's something that's easy to argue about without like super high policy stakes.
45:26
SPEAKER_01: And so we get to argue when about phones,
45:28
SPEAKER_01: if people don't argue about phones,
45:29
SPEAKER_01: they could argue about the kids and what's the matter with the kids these days.
45:32
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
45:34
SPEAKER_01: It's sort of it's really it's really well designed for those sort of those debates.
45:39
SPEAKER_01: And, you know, we can pull them up pretty easily.
45:40
SPEAKER_01: But if you just like, yes, if you ask Oregonians, should smartphones be banned in school?
45:45
SPEAKER_01: I'll tell you.
45:47
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
45:47
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, they should be.
45:48
SPEAKER_02: I find it kind of funny.
45:50
SPEAKER_02: I have two teenage sons.
45:52
SPEAKER_02: So and they have teachers who have varying degrees of cell phones in the classroom.
45:58
SPEAKER_02: Right.
45:58
SPEAKER_02: So they're.
46:00
SPEAKER_02: They have like the English teachers, like she's got a basket.
46:03
SPEAKER_02: You got to drop your phone off.
46:04
SPEAKER_02: And,
46:04
SPEAKER_02: you know,
46:05
SPEAKER_02: when you come in and then if you get your work done,
46:07
SPEAKER_02: she lets you get on your phone and do whatever.
46:10
SPEAKER_02: Other teachers don't at all.
46:11
SPEAKER_02: And I occasionally get emails, you know, oh, your son, Britt, has been on his cell phone way too much.
46:15
SPEAKER_02: And I tell Britt, you got to stay off your cell phone when you're in class.
46:17
SPEAKER_02: And he doesn't for a couple of months.
46:19
SPEAKER_02: And I get another email.
46:21
SPEAKER_02: The funny part about this is I love that these parents are probably are for
46:26
SPEAKER_02: especially the helicopter moms,
46:28
SPEAKER_02: which Reagan alluded to.
46:29
SPEAKER_02: they're probably on their cell phones more than their kids are.
46:33
SPEAKER_02: And it's amazing how we can, it's this age old, all these kids these days, and this age old thing.
46:40
SPEAKER_02: And I just feel like this is,
46:42
SPEAKER_02: Just a weird, it's a fun issue to talk about because it is true, right?
46:46
SPEAKER_02: But I mean, cell phones, smartphones, they're permeant all the way down to the second graders, right?
46:51
SPEAKER_02: That have a smartphone in their bag because their parents don't want to know when
46:54
SPEAKER_02: they come out of school and they can pick them up.
46:56
SPEAKER_02: And I just don't think you can legislate yourself out of this problem is my big issue with it.
47:04
SPEAKER_00: That is exactly what I was thinking about this, Brian, because I'm thinking about myself.
47:06
SPEAKER_00: I've got I've got little kids and we have an iPad and we have a Nintendo and we
47:12
SPEAKER_00: made some mistakes early on with too much for the five and the three year old.
47:16
SPEAKER_00: And it was it was a little painful to dial that back because there is,
47:20
SPEAKER_00: you know,
47:20
SPEAKER_00: there's behavior and they're like,
47:22
SPEAKER_00: this is something I used to do and now I can't do it as much.
47:24
SPEAKER_00: What's the deal there?
47:26
SPEAKER_00: But we saw positive results from their behavior by limiting screen time.
47:32
SPEAKER_00: So I think that all the literature is probably true, that this is going to be positive.
47:38
SPEAKER_00: But I think sort of the reason it's exploding, especially in Oregon, is we have serious problems with...
47:46
SPEAKER_00: you know, test scores and graduation and all that stuff.
47:50
SPEAKER_00: And I just do not think that this is going to be the thing that solves it.
47:53
SPEAKER_00: I mean,
47:53
SPEAKER_00: the reason this has really exploded,
47:55
SPEAKER_00: especially as I saw a clip on the Today Show,
47:58
SPEAKER_00: this district in Ohio said,
48:00
SPEAKER_00: They said it's like TSA every morning.
48:03
SPEAKER_00: They showed a clip of a student trying to bring food in a school leftovers and the
48:08
SPEAKER_00: food was on top of a plastic thing that was on top of the...
48:13
SPEAKER_00: I'll link to the clip and I'll send it to you,
48:15
SPEAKER_00: Brian,
48:15
SPEAKER_00: because it was the silliest thing I ever saw.
48:16
SPEAKER_00: But it's like...
48:18
SPEAKER_00: Is that really what is going to be necessary to get test scores up?
48:21
SPEAKER_00: I don't know.
48:22
SPEAKER_00: But the other thing is, you know, if prisons and I agree with you, that's right.
48:27
SPEAKER_00: One hundred percent.
48:28
SPEAKER_00: And it was like, that's weird.
48:30
SPEAKER_00: And the other thing was just like I've been guilty of it.
48:33
SPEAKER_00: And my son's basketball, YMCA basketball practice.
48:35
SPEAKER_00: I'm like, why am I on my phone?
48:36
SPEAKER_00: Stop it.
48:37
SPEAKER_00: You know, be better.
48:39
SPEAKER_00: And I need to work on that.
48:40
SPEAKER_00: But the parents need to work on it, too.
48:41
SPEAKER_00: You're exactly right, Brian.
48:42
SPEAKER_00: The helicopter parents are the ones that are on their smartphones the most.
48:45
SPEAKER_00: And then they expect their kid to be reachable.
48:47
SPEAKER_00: immediately.
48:48
SPEAKER_00: No other time in human history has it been where you could immediately contact
48:53
SPEAKER_00: another human being so far away.
48:55
SPEAKER_00: And then we just now expect it like it's all the time.
48:57
SPEAKER_00: Like you should always be answering your phone.
48:59
SPEAKER_00: You should always answer your text, whatever.
49:01
SPEAKER_00: Like, I don't care if people don't answer my phone call.
49:03
SPEAKER_00: I'll just this because you know what that forces you to do?
49:06
SPEAKER_00: Figure out your own problem.
49:07
SPEAKER_00: Right.
49:08
SPEAKER_00: And so it's just this thing.
49:10
SPEAKER_00: It just makes me crazy.
49:11
SPEAKER_02: However, you millennials, Reagan, listen, you don't leave messages.
49:15
SPEAKER_02: Like,
49:15
SPEAKER_02: what the heck is going on in the world where freaking under 30 year olds don't know
49:19
SPEAKER_02: how to leave a freaking voicemail?
49:22
SPEAKER_02: Like, you guys call me and you don't leave a message.
49:24
SPEAKER_02: You just expect me to call you back.
49:26
SPEAKER_02: Like, well, maybe I don't want to.
49:27
SPEAKER_02: Maybe you'll tell me what you want to talk about and then maybe I'll call you back on it.
49:31
SPEAKER_00: drives me crazy john i don't know that's a good one that's all right i hear you
49:36
SPEAKER_00: brian because i've been guilty of that one with you i just call and then i don't
49:40
SPEAKER_00: leave a message what's funny is i do that especially with the public officials i
49:44
SPEAKER_00: call they do not leave messages but that's because they don't want them they don't
49:47
SPEAKER_00: want public records requests on their message so i think it's a bad habit i picked
49:51
SPEAKER_01: up but in a future survey i'll see if i can ask if you call somebody they don't
49:55
SPEAKER_01: answer do you leave a voicemail or not and see if it was a generational or
49:59
SPEAKER_01: political divide is on on that
50:02
SPEAKER_00: That was part one of our episode with pollster John Horvick.
50:07
SPEAKER_00: Part two is coming tomorrow.
50:09
SPEAKER_00: Stay tuned for that.
50:11
SPEAKER_00: Make sure to subscribe to Crosstabs on your preferred podcast platform.
50:14
SPEAKER_00: You can follow Crosstabs FM on Twitter, at Brian G. Iverson on Twitter, at Reagan Canope on Twitter.
50:23
SPEAKER_00: Thanks for listening.