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US militarily lost Iran war on April 8th, says defence analyst · INSIGHT TODAY

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  Speaker 1: It's bring you more on that breaking news now. US
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  Speaker 1: President Donald Trump says a deal with Iran is scheduled
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  Speaker 1: to be signed tomorrow and the Straight of Remus will
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  Speaker 1: be opened immediately afterwards. Let's bring in our security and
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  Speaker 1: defense analyst Professor Michael Clark. Michael that that is the
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  Speaker 1: exact phrasing that the presidents use. The deal is scheduled
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  Speaker 1: to get signed tomorrow. He certainly seems very confident. Are
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  Speaker 1: you as confident that this will go as smoothly as
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  Speaker 1: the President seems to imply it will.
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  Speaker 2: No, First, it's not a deal. It's an exchange of
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  Speaker 2: memoranda to MOUs the exchange, which is a way of saying,
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  Speaker 2: we'll carry on talking for sixty days in a ceasefire.
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  Speaker 2: So it's better than nothing. But it's not a peace deal.
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  Speaker 2: It's a series of modalities to arrive at a peace deal.
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  Speaker 2: And secondly, it would be it would be unusual to
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  Speaker 2: me if the Iranians signed it tomorrow, because why would
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  Speaker 2: they play to President Trump's agender. They want to humiliate him,
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  Speaker 2: and it would suit them to embarrass him and say, well,
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  Speaker 2: maybe we'll sign it next week when we're really happy
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  Speaker 2: with it. Remember that when the hostage crisis was on
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  Speaker 2: under Jimmy Carter's presidency in nineteen seventy nine. Eventually they
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  Speaker 2: negotiated the release of the hostages, but they were not
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  Speaker 2: released until the hour after Jimmy Carter had handed over
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  Speaker 2: power to Ronald Reagan. They humiliated him by hanging on
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  Speaker 2: and hanging on until the inauguration ceremony was an hour
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  Speaker 2: in and Ronald Reagan was then the president, and then
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  Speaker 2: the hostages were released. They've got a very acute sense
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  Speaker 2: of how to humiliate the United States, and they believe
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  Speaker 2: that humiliation is appropriate because they think that they are
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  Speaker 2: in the driving seat as far as these negotiations go.
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  Speaker 2: So we don't know. Everything's unpredictable with Donald Trump and
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  Speaker 2: with this war, but personally, I'd be a bit surprised
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  Speaker 2: if they signed tomorrow. I think they'll hang on in
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  Speaker 2: order to humiliate him.
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  Speaker 1: Okay, so I get the point about them possibly not
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  Speaker 1: signing tomorrow, which is the timeframe that Donald Trump has outlined,
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  Speaker 1: But what about the memorandum of understanding in general? Do
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  Speaker 1: you think that some kind of breakthrough will happen, if
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  Speaker 1: not tomorrow, in the coming days. I mean, that's what
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  Speaker 1: the Pakistani Prime Minister seems to think yes.
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  Speaker 2: I mean they seem to have arrived at the point
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  Speaker 2: where they say, we will discuss the things we need
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  Speaker 2: to discuss, which is the Straight of Hormus, what happens
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  Speaker 2: to the enriched uranium, the whole process of nuclear issues,
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  Speaker 2: and then freezing, unfreezing assets, the Uranian assets that are frozen,
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  Speaker 2: releasing some sanctions, and their most important well the ceasefire
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  Speaker 2: in Lebanon. So there's at least six things which they
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  Speaker 2: have to discuss, and the key issue will be the sequencing.
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  Speaker 2: I mean, what do the Uranians have to do to
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  Speaker 2: get sanctioned relief, what do they have to do to
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  Speaker 2: get the assets on frozen? What's the sequencing for opening
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  Speaker 2: the Straight of Hormus? Given that if there's any delay
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  Speaker 2: in these processes, they could close the Straight of Homos again.
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  Speaker 2: So I suspect it will be a very odd sixty days.
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  Speaker 2: It won't go smoothly. These things never do. And that
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  Speaker 2: says nothing about blistic missiles, which is what this was
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  Speaker 2: always supposed to be about. Nothing about the Proxy or
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  Speaker 2: the other areas that the other groups in the Middle
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  Speaker 2: East that the Iranians fund and direct or inspire nothing
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  Speaker 2: about regime change, of course, which is not going to happen.
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  Speaker 2: So of the six issues that it will deal with,
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  Speaker 2: there's an awful long way to go. And ultimately, I mean,
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  Speaker 2: the United States is trying to salvage something here out
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  Speaker 2: of a losing position. I mean, if I'll stick my
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  Speaker 2: neck out now, and I say, I think militarily the
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  Speaker 2: United States lost this war on the eighth of April
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  Speaker 2: when they had the ceasefire, because Donald Trump, that was
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  Speaker 2: the night if you remember, when he said that tonight
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  Speaker 2: a civilization will come to an end. And I think
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  Speaker 2: both the White House and Tehran were kind of frightened
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  Speaker 2: by the position that they got themselves into. They frightened
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  Speaker 2: themselves by where they were that night, and in a way,
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  Speaker 2: that marked the moment when the Americans decided, look, there's
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  Speaker 2: nothing else we can do with military power. On military
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  Speaker 2: power is not going to coerce the Iranians into doing
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  Speaker 2: what we want them to do, even on the nuclear issue,
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  Speaker 2: let alone all the other things. And I think that
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  Speaker 2: marked the loss of this war because after that, the Americans,
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  Speaker 2: who were never going to get out of it what
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  Speaker 2: they wanted to politically, and since the eighth of April,
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  Speaker 2: all the noise and the discussions and all the back
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  Speaker 2: and forth. Trump's statements we're going to have peace. Now,
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  Speaker 2: We're not going to have peace. We're going to go
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  Speaker 2: back to war. Every Friday, it's a peaceful statement, every Monday,
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  Speaker 2: to warlike statement because he's trying to influence the markets.
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  Speaker 2: All of that is the noise around the Americans trying
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  Speaker 2: to bolster what is effectively a weak political position, because
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  Speaker 2: although the country of Iran desperately needs peace, the rangers,
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  Speaker 2: all ninety million of them, they desperately need peace, but
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  Speaker 2: the people in power don't. The IOLGC who are now
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  Speaker 2: empower the hardliners, they're all very well off personally. They've
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  Speaker 2: all got their boltholes to go to when things collapse,
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  Speaker 2: if they collapse at some time in the future, as
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  Speaker 2: I suspect that they will, And so they don't need
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  Speaker 2: peace as much as the population of Iran needs peace.
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  Speaker 2: And it's a deeply, deeply corrupt organization. It's an organization
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  Speaker 2: which cares nothing for Iranian people, despite what they say.
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  Speaker 2: So they're under no real pressure to give in. Donald
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  Speaker 2: Trump is under much more pressure to get a deal
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  Speaker 2: of some sort, and you have to try to sell
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  Speaker 2: it to the American public as being somehow better than
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  Speaker 2: the Obama deal of Night of twenty fifteen, which he
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  Speaker 2: withdrew from.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, it's interesting how he started that statement on truth
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  Speaker 1: social mentioning the jcpoa Obama's deal. So look, Michael, obviously
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  Speaker 1: you paint a picture that doesn't leave a lot of
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  Speaker 1: hope when it comes to a long lasting piece between
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  Speaker 1: Iran and the United States. But it's really the straight
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  Speaker 1: off for moves that has made this war have an
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  Speaker 1: impact on economies right around the world. So do you
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  Speaker 1: foresee not a long lasting piece between the two worrying parties,
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  Speaker 1: but some kind of opening of the strato for moos soon?
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  Speaker 2: Yes, Barbara, I mean I don't see a return to
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  Speaker 2: military activity particularly, but I see a grumbling diplomatic argument
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  Speaker 2: between Iran and the United States. It will go on,
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  Speaker 2: and we'll go on beyond the sixty days, and there
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  Speaker 2: may be occasional military operations on both sides. So I
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  Speaker 2: think we're not going to see a neat end to this.
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  Speaker 2: It will just drift on for a long time. The
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  Speaker 2: straight of almost I'm sure, will open again, but it
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  Speaker 2: will never go back to the way it was ever.
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  Speaker 2: Whatever they say about the Stradifemos, it will not go
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  Speaker 2: back to the way it was because the Iranians now
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  Speaker 2: know and we now know how easy it is for
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  Speaker 2: them to close it. It wasn't as easy for them to
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  Speaker 2: do this in the tanker war during the nineteen eighties.
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  Speaker 2: But the modern technologies of cheap ballistic missiles, cheap drones,
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  Speaker 2: robotic boats, even midget robotic submarines, all of those things
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  Speaker 2: didn't exist in the nineteen eighties, but they exist now
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  Speaker 2: and operating from Kesum Island from bound robasts, the Iranians
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  Speaker 2: can close the straight after moment's notice whenever they want to.
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  Speaker 2: And that's the new reality that won't change our.
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  Speaker 1: Security and defense analyst Professor Michael Clark, Michael, always good
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  Speaker 1: to talk to you. Thank you.