Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / MMA DFS - FIGHT NIGHT | 6/21/25 | DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays and Process
Transcript
- 0:05Speaker 1: All system's going clear the left of.
- 0:36Speaker 2: What's going on? Everybody Happy Wednesday, Thursday, Friday. Whenever you're
- 0:41Speaker 2: listening to this, it's not Wednesday. I'm so used to
- 0:44Speaker 2: these Wednesday shows. It's Thursday with my man Big Marley
- 0:48Speaker 2: a little earlier than usual because, as you see his
- 0:50Speaker 2: hat down below, Big Game six for the Pacers taking
- 0:54Speaker 2: on Okase. If you are watching this live, first of all,
- 0:57Speaker 2: shout out to y'all. Hey, if you're not in the
- 1:00Speaker 2: I know prizes contests are feeling quick. NBA Showdown, Slate
- 1:05Speaker 2: Plan real best in the business that most definitely always
- 1:08Speaker 2: has a long, lengthy article. He puts his favorite captains flex,
- 1:13Speaker 2: how he sees the game going, how he's gonna tackle it,
- 1:15Speaker 2: So definitely check that out. We're here talking some fights,
- 1:18Speaker 2: twelve fights on this fight night in Baku. I have
- 1:22Speaker 2: no kluh how to pronounce whatever country we're in. What
- 1:25Speaker 2: I do know is we're overseas twelve pm Eastern. My
- 1:31Speaker 2: time is nine am on the mountain time, So make
- 1:34Speaker 2: sure you set your alarm if you sleep in twelve fights,
- 1:38Speaker 2: I like morning violence. After that, you can do what
- 1:40Speaker 2: you want. Big Marley, how you feeling on this card.
- 1:43Speaker 2: How are we doing.
- 1:44Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm feeling all right. Uh.
- 1:46Speaker 3: I love a good noon card, get a workout in early,
- 1:50Speaker 3: straight to the fights, and then you can even have
- 1:52Speaker 3: a night afterwards, hopefully to celebrate. But not a terrible card.
- 1:56Speaker 3: I'm not the best one either, but I think DFS
- 1:58Speaker 3: is what's making me more interested in it. I think
- 2:01Speaker 3: there's a lot of ways we can go this week,
- 2:03Speaker 3: and there's ways I can get unchalky, and then there's
- 2:06Speaker 3: a couple of chalk guys that I am planning on
- 2:08Speaker 3: eating as well, but looking forward to talking it out
- 2:10Speaker 3: with you.
- 2:11Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree. I love the morning fights. I'll hit
- 2:13Speaker 2: the sound a quick. I doubt I do too much
- 2:15Speaker 2: after that, but get a little sweat in before the
- 2:17Speaker 2: sweat for the money, so it'll be a good morning
- 2:20Speaker 2: over here. Little neck in here, Ben Kim O my
- 2:24Speaker 2: bad Kim, Mike Marquee, Derek Jake yasn I am Rice.
- 2:30Speaker 2: What is going on? Brian in here as well. Appreciate everyone.
- 2:34Speaker 2: Look at that. I got that Newton violence than a
- 2:37Speaker 2: date with the girl, that's what I like to see. Derek,
- 2:39Speaker 2: I'm doing something similar. We're gonna go out to dinner,
- 2:42Speaker 2: maybe go to the Farmer's market do something as well.
- 2:44Speaker 2: So best of both the worlds. Right there, guy, there
- 2:47Speaker 2: you go. Got the kids on the iPad ready to
- 2:50Speaker 2: take down some mma. Appreciate everyone hanging out, appreciates the words,
- 2:54Speaker 2: and again all we ask like butnon subscribe butt helps
- 2:57Speaker 2: us out a ton. I know many watching on playback.
- 2:59Speaker 2: Just do us right now. Takes two seconds out of
- 3:01Speaker 2: your day. The thumbs up helps us out a ton.
- 3:04Speaker 2: If you have any hot takes, any underdogs you like
- 3:07Speaker 2: this week dropping the YouTube comments, I enjoy looking at
- 3:10Speaker 2: it below. Broad Slate overview dogs aren't great. We have
- 3:18Speaker 2: a decent amount of big favorites. We only have three
- 3:21Speaker 2: mid tier fights. One is the main event and it's
- 3:23Speaker 2: a straight pickum right now. Jamal Hill has taken some
- 3:26Speaker 2: money recently, so this fight Roundtree Hill gonna be heavily owned.
- 3:30Speaker 2: Another really good mid mid tier fight or Abi Musayev
- 3:34Speaker 2: eighty five and seventy seven hundred class of styles. That
- 3:37Speaker 2: fight's expected to finish. Those two fights gonna be popular
- 3:40Speaker 2: in the mid tier, and then after that people are
- 3:43Speaker 2: gonna go stars and scrubs. Is how I see it again.
- 3:47Speaker 2: I think ownership relatively spread out. Looking at our initial
- 3:51Speaker 2: ownership and again this is all post it on Friday. Yeah,
- 3:55Speaker 2: no one above hold on, let me make sure I
- 3:58Speaker 2: have it up. We have right now, no one projected
- 4:00Speaker 2: above fifty percent. I always love to see that, so
- 4:04Speaker 2: figures cross we keep all twelve fights. If so, I
- 4:07Speaker 2: think you could see a ten dupe, eight dupe, fourteen
- 4:09Speaker 2: dupe card and I would definitely be totally fine with
- 4:12Speaker 2: that being on that train. Any broad say overview for
- 4:15Speaker 2: you before we go fight by.
- 4:16Speaker 3: Fight now, main event is by far my favorite fight
- 4:20Speaker 3: to target. If I'm gonna be anywhere near all into
- 4:23Speaker 3: a fight, it'll be that one and then the other ones.
- 4:26Speaker 1: I could just sprinkle here and there.
- 4:27Speaker 3: There's no clear full fight fades for me, but there's
- 4:31Speaker 3: a few fighters I do plan on fading and hopefully
- 4:33Speaker 3: I can nit the nuts.
- 4:35Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean last week's card was pathetic. I mean,
- 4:39Speaker 2: Pig Marley was there, but I mean, come on, monsieur.
- 4:43Speaker 2: Then the Balato Shenanigans going, I mean it was one
- 4:46Speaker 2: of the craziest, craziest thing. Well maker, that man's got
- 4:49Speaker 2: a right hook for days. Though, we know that anything
- 4:53Speaker 2: you want to say you were in attendance or you
- 4:55Speaker 2: don't want to you want to forget about that car
- 4:56Speaker 2: to move on.
- 4:58Speaker 3: I mean, I guess if fights are gonna suck, it's
- 5:00Speaker 3: better to watch them from a sweet drinking free drinks
- 5:03Speaker 3: and eating free food.
- 5:04Speaker 1: But now it was a terrible card, but I saw
- 5:06Speaker 1: had a good time.
- 5:07Speaker 2: Yeah, I love it. Okay, Brian, when we go through,
- 5:10Speaker 2: let me know some of your dogs. I'm struggling personally
- 5:12Speaker 2: over here, but no time to waste spot in the
- 5:15Speaker 2: top like always, first fight of the night, man, this
- 5:18Speaker 2: is a slave, might as well start at nine to
- 5:21Speaker 2: twenty eastern. Hey, if you get your lineups in the
- 5:23Speaker 2: night before or twelve twenty eastern. If you get your
- 5:25Speaker 2: lineups in the night before, you want to sleep in
- 5:28Speaker 2: a little bit. I won't blame anyone for missing this
- 5:30Speaker 2: first fight. Handy abdua loa. I'm taking on Mohammed Usman
- 5:34Speaker 2: minus one sixty is Hamdy plus one forty is Usman
- 5:38Speaker 2: plus one seventy for this fight to finish Handy plus
- 5:41Speaker 2: three twenty five inside the distance Usman plus three seventy five.
- 5:46Speaker 2: I'm on Brian's side. I am fading Hamdy and twenty
- 5:49Speaker 2: and below eighty six hundred. You need to get some
- 5:52Speaker 2: real scores at that price tag. Give me Park for
- 5:55Speaker 2: more expensive. Give me alex Eva, give me Mullens, give
- 5:58Speaker 2: me Namov, give me oral By. Gimme Roundtree, gimme Hill,
- 6:02Speaker 2: give me pretty much everyone in the card in that
- 6:05Speaker 2: price range, twenty teams or less. I am not clicking
- 6:08Speaker 2: Handy's name. I'm seriously debating fully fading Usman two. What
- 6:13Speaker 2: I keep coming back to is is sixty enough? Possibly
- 6:17Speaker 2: at seventy six hundred, if eleven favorites win and Usman's
- 6:20Speaker 2: the only dog, is that enough? I don't know. Possibly,
- 6:24Speaker 2: So I think for that reason he's gonna stay in
- 6:26Speaker 2: the pool. I'm gonna kept his exposure. Though I see
- 6:29Speaker 2: this as a boring pillow fight. A couple strikes landed
- 6:32Speaker 2: here and there. My question to you, though, can Handy
- 6:36Speaker 2: wrestle in this one? He has a wrestling background. I
- 6:39Speaker 2: doubt Usman wrestles, but like that's the only path I
- 6:42Speaker 2: see to this fight being optimal. I hate this fight.
- 6:45Speaker 2: I will hardly have any What are you doing?
- 6:48Speaker 1: I'm gonna use a little bit of it.
- 6:50Speaker 3: I don't love it, but I could see either guy
- 6:53Speaker 3: putting up a decent score at low ownership. It does
- 6:57Speaker 3: get it's gonna come down to the wrestling for sure,
- 6:59Speaker 3: or they're big boys.
- 7:00Speaker 1: Maybe we'd get a knockout as well. On the feet.
- 7:03Speaker 3: We need the knockout because it's probably a strike for
- 7:07Speaker 3: strike on the feet. We really won't have a clue
- 7:09Speaker 3: who's gonna win, especially with the judges. I would slightly
- 7:13Speaker 3: favor Usman in the striking department, but I favor Hamdy
- 7:16Speaker 3: in the wrestling, and I do think that the line
- 7:20Speaker 3: makes sense because of his wrestling advantage here. He's just
- 7:24Speaker 3: gonna have to wrestle for all three rounds and do
- 7:26Speaker 3: some work on the ground. I think he's got a
- 7:28Speaker 3: hundred point potential though, so I will be playing some
- 7:30Speaker 3: of them, and then Usman really has the same upside.
- 7:34Speaker 3: Whereas he could wrestle Hamdy, it's just that he's not
- 7:37Speaker 3: the better wrestler, so he's probably gonna have to attempt
- 7:40Speaker 3: more stuff, some takedowns of his own. But he could
- 7:42Speaker 3: get a takedown or two of his own and add
- 7:44Speaker 3: a couple points that way. But I feel like Usman's
- 7:47Speaker 3: probably playing for like a seventy to eighty, where Handy's
- 7:52Speaker 3: playing for like a eighty to one hundred. So I
- 7:54Speaker 3: prefer Hamdy slightly, but for a thousand less. If I
- 7:58Speaker 3: need to go handy down to Usman to see what
- 8:00Speaker 3: that does for the rest of my lineup, then I'm
- 8:02Speaker 3: completely fine doing that. I'd be okay with either side
- 8:06Speaker 3: in a single entry, but I probably try to get
- 8:08Speaker 3: away from it if I could in the single entry.
- 8:10Speaker 1: But I wouldn't be surprised if I'm overweight to both
- 8:13Speaker 1: guys in them.
- 8:13Speaker 2: Me. Hey, I very rarely, it seems do we disagree
- 8:17Speaker 2: on too many things? So I like it to start
- 8:19Speaker 2: off the card. I'm definitely hoping this fight isn't optimal.
- 8:23Speaker 2: I'm hardly gonna have I'm hardly gonna have any of it.
- 8:26Speaker 2: But it is big bodies. They're gonna be pretty low owned.
- 8:29Speaker 2: Random stuff can happen. I think Candy's bad. I think
- 8:31Speaker 2: Usman's bad. When you get a couple bad fighters, sometimes
- 8:35Speaker 2: one's just way worse and doesn't show up at all. Again,
- 8:38Speaker 2: I'm gonna be playing over twenty teams more than likely
- 8:40Speaker 2: this week, so I won't full faid like if I
- 8:43Speaker 2: was doing one fifty. I would include all twenty four
- 8:45Speaker 2: fighters in my pool this week, which isn't the same
- 8:48Speaker 2: I always isn't the case every week. This week it
- 8:51Speaker 2: would be twenty teams or less. Though I am not
- 8:53Speaker 2: gonna play any handy. We'll keep it rolling. Next fight
- 8:57Speaker 2: on the card the biggest favorite current actually second biggest
- 9:01Speaker 2: by five cents to gear Uhin Beckoff minus four to
- 9:04Speaker 2: fifty taken on Oza maxim plus three fifty plus one
- 9:07Speaker 2: sixty for this fight to finish Ulan beckof plus two
- 9:10Speaker 2: hundred inside the distance max. And plus seven hundred inside
- 9:14Speaker 2: the distance. Look at that so uhen Becko plus two
- 9:17Speaker 2: hundred inside the distance him by submission plus two forty
- 9:20Speaker 2: Tagear's a wrestler. Ozma Osma came in as a wrestler too.
- 9:26Speaker 2: But man, this dude, like that fight against Tyson nam garbage,
- 9:30Speaker 2: the Charles Johnson fight, not very good as a guy
- 9:33Speaker 2: that wants to wrestle. This is a really bad matchup
- 9:36Speaker 2: to take on Abib's boy. He's good, he's long, he
- 9:40Speaker 2: knows body weights, good trip takedowns. I mean, I think
- 9:43Speaker 2: two year could go three four takedowns, twelve minutes of
- 9:46Speaker 2: control time. But with all that being said, is that enough?
- 9:50Speaker 2: Because there was a fight against Nascimento, let me get
- 9:54Speaker 2: the exact thing he had three takedowns, whereas it in this.
- 10:03Speaker 1: Give me one sick four takedowns or takedowns twelve?
- 10:07Speaker 2: Yeah? Was it four takedowns?
- 10:09Speaker 1: Yeah? Against na sevento four takedowns in a reversal.
- 10:12Speaker 2: And twelve and a half minutes of control time in
- 10:14Speaker 2: the decision and scored ninety three DK points. Ninety three
- 10:17Speaker 2: is probably not enough this week. Now, his two finish
- 10:20Speaker 2: wins were one hundred and one twenty, So I guess
- 10:23Speaker 2: it comes down to do you think he finishes. If
- 10:26Speaker 2: you look at plus two hundred, that's thirty three percent,
- 10:29Speaker 2: And I'm looking right now at our projected ownership, Yeah,
- 10:33Speaker 2: we have them less than thirty three percent, Like I
- 10:36Speaker 2: think he could be like twenty three percent, twenty four percent.
- 10:39Speaker 2: So just looking at his expected finish to his ownership,
- 10:44Speaker 2: I think he's a fine play now in a vacuum
- 10:46Speaker 2: gun to my head. When I'm ranking these top guys,
- 10:49Speaker 2: he falls down the list a little bit. I prefer
- 10:50Speaker 2: Sadikov some other ones that way. So for me, lolling
- 10:54Speaker 2: back off and chalk your lineups, I'm confident he wins.
- 10:57Speaker 2: I'm not playing maxim in twenty and below. What are
- 11:00Speaker 2: you doing in this one?
- 11:02Speaker 3: Yeah, I think I'm gonna avoid it for the most part.
- 11:04Speaker 3: Maxim Is is fairly well rounded, but he it would
- 11:09Speaker 3: be better for him to get the fight to the ground.
- 11:10Speaker 3: It's just that ulm Bekov is better everywhere. I think
- 11:13Speaker 3: if the fight stays standing, Ulam Bekov's probably the better striker,
- 11:18Speaker 3: should be longer, a little bit more powerful. But I
- 11:20Speaker 3: don't think he's gonna score much at all on the feet,
- 11:22Speaker 3: and I don't think he's gonna wrestle enough to put
- 11:25Speaker 3: up a big score in a decision, So we're kind
- 11:27Speaker 3: of playing for the submission in my eyes. Don't hate
- 11:30Speaker 3: him here, but I think I would rather just save
- 11:33Speaker 3: money and go down to somebody lower and try and
- 11:35Speaker 3: get different, maybe take it down solo instead. So I'll
- 11:39Speaker 3: mostly avoid this fight. But ula Bekov is the pick.
- 11:43Speaker 2: I'm in agreement again. I just think Uhlin Bekov's more
- 11:46Speaker 2: of a pivot. Play up top and chalk your lineups
- 11:48Speaker 2: if you're playing the round Tree Hill fight, if you're
- 11:50Speaker 2: playing the oral By fight, if you're eating a lot
- 11:53Speaker 2: of chalk. The Blades Kunia fight like Uhl and Bekov
- 11:57Speaker 2: is a way you can't get different. Again, I think
- 11:58Speaker 2: he will be one of the forgotten guys up above.
- 12:01Speaker 2: But again rightfully so this fight is plus one. It
- 12:05Speaker 2: was plus one eighty on Monday to finish. Now it
- 12:07Speaker 2: is plus one sixty. So some money coming in on
- 12:10Speaker 2: the under, which is interesting, and that is on the
- 12:12Speaker 2: Uhlin back up side. But yeah, not my favorite fight
- 12:15Speaker 2: right here. Next fight on the card Irena alex Geva
- 12:19Speaker 2: taking on Claudia Segula Alexevov minus two seventy five Segula
- 12:24Speaker 2: plus two thirty five minus one oh five for this
- 12:26Speaker 2: fight to finish alex Eva plus one thirty five inside
- 12:29Speaker 2: the distance Segula plus six hundred take it away. What
- 12:33Speaker 2: are you doing in this one?
- 12:35Speaker 3: I think this one's gonna be mostly alex Seva or
- 12:38Speaker 3: pass for me. I really think uh Segula's got one
- 12:43Speaker 3: of the lowest ceilings on the card. Maybe she is
- 12:45Speaker 3: live to win a striking match here and possibly score
- 12:49Speaker 3: in the sixties or something like that, but I just
- 12:51Speaker 3: don't see how she scores ninety plus eighty five plus really,
- 12:56Speaker 3: so I'm just gonna fade her and then Alexeva should
- 12:59Speaker 3: have the grappling edge in this one. I mean, she
- 13:01Speaker 3: she's probably the better striker too, but for her to
- 13:03Speaker 3: score well. I think she is live for submission in
- 13:07Speaker 3: any round, and if she gets it in the first round,
- 13:09Speaker 3: she could make the optimal lineup.
- 13:10Speaker 1: I actually prefer her to Ulan.
- 13:12Speaker 3: Bekov at what I would expect to be a little
- 13:14Speaker 3: bit lower ownership and make me a little bit different.
- 13:17Speaker 3: So I like alex Eva in this one. I think
- 13:19Speaker 3: the sub is live here.
- 13:21Speaker 2: I like alex Eva Moore. I'm not convinced it's gonna
- 13:25Speaker 2: be lower own. I think it'll be close. I think
- 13:27Speaker 2: people are gonna go to that range and the four
- 13:29Speaker 2: hundred savings like the Naima of the Alexeva the Mullins.
- 13:32Speaker 2: I do think people go that route a lot like
- 13:35Speaker 2: I like Alexeva good bit. A lot of that has
- 13:37Speaker 2: to do with she's taking a lot of money on
- 13:40Speaker 2: the inside, the distance on the money line. So plus
- 13:43Speaker 2: you open plus one eighty five to finish now plus
- 13:45Speaker 2: one thirty five, she open plus two to fifty by
- 13:48Speaker 2: sub now plus two thirty five like you said her
- 13:51Speaker 2: by Ko though I do think she's better everywhere open
- 13:54Speaker 2: plus twelve hundred now plus six hundred. She does throw
- 13:58Speaker 2: power on the feet. It's not really technical, it's not great,
- 14:02Speaker 2: but I just don't think the Segoula girls good. The
- 14:04Speaker 2: easiest path is just take her down. These guirls both
- 14:07Speaker 2: lost to Melissa Mullins, who will talk about next fight.
- 14:10Speaker 2: But Segula got finished in the second like she had
- 14:12Speaker 2: no answer when she was taken down. Alexev at least
- 14:15Speaker 2: went to decision battled a little bit. Alexeva got the
- 14:19Speaker 2: big upset win over at Stephanie Egger in her debut
- 14:22Speaker 2: the knee Bar, which was really really weird. But if
- 14:25Speaker 2: you're submitting Stephanie Egger, she definitely can submit Segula. So yeah,
- 14:29Speaker 2: the Russian Rondo. I think Alexeva is a very solid play,
- 14:32Speaker 2: and like Oban Elliott, the most expensive fighter at ninety
- 14:35Speaker 2: five hundred, I'm fine dropping him to alex Eva and
- 14:39Speaker 2: saving six hundred. That right there can get you off
- 14:41Speaker 2: a lot of dupes. I think Alexeva has one hundred
- 14:44Speaker 2: plus point upside her run one prop two open plus
- 14:48Speaker 2: five hundred now plus four hundred, So I'm gonna be
- 14:51Speaker 2: playing this range for sure. Alex Eva might preferred play.
- 14:55Speaker 2: I'm gonna play some Segula because like, like I like
- 14:59Speaker 2: her more than like those really big underdogs, And I
- 15:03Speaker 2: mean maybe just out. I don't think alex Eva's great.
- 15:05Speaker 2: Maybe Segula could keep it on the feet outstriker ninety
- 15:09Speaker 2: to eighty five, win a split decision score sixty eight,
- 15:13Speaker 2: And to be honest, I'll take sixty eight on this
- 15:15Speaker 2: card right now at seventy three hundred. Will it be optimal?
- 15:18Speaker 2: I don't know for sure, but if I knew she
- 15:20Speaker 2: got it, I would be overweight on there, like twelve
- 15:22Speaker 2: percent or whatever she's gonna come in at. But alex
- 15:25Speaker 2: Eeva still is my preferred play in this one. Before
- 15:30Speaker 2: we do go to the next fight, I do want
- 15:31Speaker 2: to mention if you're not a member at ship in Nation,
- 15:34Speaker 2: there's absolutely no better time to get over and join.
- 15:37Speaker 2: You HAVEC seventy five's of the code. What does that
- 15:39Speaker 2: all get you? So? You can see right here Sabersim
- 15:42Speaker 2: Core package. You guys probably all know about Sabersim, the
- 15:45Speaker 2: best optimizer around. Shout out to Sabersim, our partner you get.
- 15:50Speaker 2: We load our projections and our ownership in there. The
- 15:53Speaker 2: core package allows you to build two hundred and fifty
- 15:55Speaker 2: teams see one hundred and fifty and again, MMA, we
- 15:59Speaker 2: talk about sabers Him all the time looking at exposures.
- 16:02Speaker 2: It is very important. Saberson takes into consideration ownership what
- 16:06Speaker 2: contest you're playing and helps you eliminate dupes. Less than
- 16:09Speaker 2: a dollar day, you can get all of our contents
- 16:12Speaker 2: and that's golf, MMA, MLB, pgax or I already said
- 16:16Speaker 2: that NASCAR et cetera with sabersim and access to the
- 16:20Speaker 2: best discord around. Again for less than a dollar day
- 16:23Speaker 2: if you use a code UFC seventy five ninety nine
- 16:25Speaker 2: dollars takes it all the way down to twenty four
- 16:28Speaker 2: dollars for your first month. We would love to have
- 16:31Speaker 2: you at the Nation. Next fight on the card. See
- 16:34Speaker 2: some people in chat talking about this one. Melissa Mullens
- 16:37Speaker 2: minus two thirty five picking on Daria Zalensi Cova plus
- 16:41Speaker 2: two hundred minus one forty five for this fight. To finish,
- 16:45Speaker 2: Mullens minus won ten inside the distance Zalikova plus six
- 16:49Speaker 2: twenty five. This is a rematch Big Marley where it
- 16:53Speaker 2: was a fun fight. Mullens got a late first round finish.
- 16:57Speaker 2: Zalenciakova was piecing her up on the feet early, got
- 17:00Speaker 2: a take down, ground and pound. It was over after that.
- 17:04Speaker 2: I love this fight for dfs one of my favorite
- 17:06Speaker 2: on the card at ownership. Neither girls getting a ton
- 17:09Speaker 2: of ownership. Mullens a wrestler, as you can see on
- 17:13Speaker 2: the stone, one point five to three takedowns per fifteen.
- 17:16Speaker 2: Daria is a striker, so we have a class of
- 17:19Speaker 2: styles they've already fought, and it was clear Daria was
- 17:22Speaker 2: getting the better exchanges on the feet Mullens when it
- 17:25Speaker 2: was on the mat, it was gg. If Mullins wins,
- 17:28Speaker 2: she can put up a monster again. She's minus one
- 17:31Speaker 2: ten to finish. Now open plus one ten. She's plus
- 17:34Speaker 2: three fifty in round one. Money is coming in on
- 17:37Speaker 2: the under for this fight to finish. Mullins has as
- 17:40Speaker 2: much upside as anyone on the slate. Daria on the
- 17:43Speaker 2: other side, though, if you look at these odds, you're
- 17:46Speaker 2: looking at the stone. I put these up Tuesday. It
- 17:49Speaker 2: was minus two seventy five Mullins on Tuesday. Now she's
- 17:52Speaker 2: minus two thirty five. So Daria has been taking money
- 17:55Speaker 2: now at plus two hundred, and I still think the
- 17:58Speaker 2: wides the line's a little wide. Picking Daria at this number.
- 18:02Speaker 2: If she's tough takedowns, I think she wins the fight
- 18:04Speaker 2: and she can piece her up. Does she do it?
- 18:07Speaker 2: I don't know, but at plus two hundred early in
- 18:09Speaker 2: the week when I picked her at plus two thirty five,
- 18:12Speaker 2: and more importantly for DFS at seventy two hundred, if
- 18:15Speaker 2: I'm saying I'll take sixty five in a win again,
- 18:17Speaker 2: I'm definitely interested than in Daria, who I think when
- 18:20Speaker 2: I'm picking to win the fight. So it's like, if
- 18:23Speaker 2: I had sixty percent Moens at thirty percent Daria, I'm fine.
- 18:26Speaker 2: If I had forty percent Daria thirty percent Mowens, I'm fine.
- 18:30Speaker 2: I do want to get overweight on this fight again,
- 18:32Speaker 2: minus won forty five to finish. Really don't even know
- 18:36Speaker 2: if I have a fer side. I just want to
- 18:38Speaker 2: play both and probably get overweight. What are you doing
- 18:40Speaker 2: in this one?
- 18:42Speaker 1: I like it?
- 18:42Speaker 3: Yeah, I I have just moved it to a four star.
- 18:45Speaker 3: I think he talked me into more Daria. She is
- 18:49Speaker 3: much more live than Segoula in my opinion, so I
- 18:52Speaker 3: would rather play her for one hundred dollars less. I
- 18:54Speaker 3: think she's a better striker and maybe she could put
- 18:57Speaker 3: up decent volume or drop her along the way. But
- 19:01Speaker 3: I picked Mullins because of the wrestling advantage. I think
- 19:04Speaker 3: if anyone's gonna score high in this fight, it's gonna
- 19:06Speaker 3: be Mullins.
- 19:08Speaker 1: And I was planning on being overweight to hurt underweight
- 19:11Speaker 1: to Daria.
- 19:13Speaker 3: But I think maybe going overweight to the fight as
- 19:17Speaker 3: a whole isn't a bad idea in this one. I'll
- 19:19Speaker 3: definitely play more Daria now than I would have ten
- 19:21Speaker 3: minutes ago, so hopefully this is one of the better
- 19:24Speaker 3: fights on the car.
- 19:25Speaker 1: But I got Mullins, so.
- 19:27Speaker 2: I don't want to skip ahead too much. But like
- 19:29Speaker 2: I take it, you do prefer like Kunia Bogdan Grod,
- 19:34Speaker 2: like you already said, you like Segula more like Nerdy
- 19:37Speaker 2: of but he's a little more expensive, Like who do
- 19:39Speaker 2: you prefer more in that range down below?
- 19:42Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I definitely don't like Segula more down
- 19:45Speaker 3: below seventy two probably seventy four. Grad and Kuniev would
- 19:52Speaker 3: be the two I like more, and.
- 19:54Speaker 2: I do think they're both higher owned as well.
- 19:57Speaker 3: More more so for ceilings though, I feel like, just
- 20:02Speaker 3: outright when equity Dari's right there with both of.
- 20:04Speaker 2: Them, and that that's exactly my like for sure upside
- 20:08Speaker 2: it's those two, But I'm picking Ninemov, I'm picking blades,
- 20:12Speaker 2: I'm picking Daria, So in that aspect, I just think
- 20:15Speaker 2: the past. I also the more of the years have
- 20:18Speaker 2: went on. It's just in my mind, like these women's
- 20:21Speaker 2: MMA fights most of the time seem to be a
- 20:23Speaker 2: lot closer than some of the men's fights. Like again,
- 20:26Speaker 2: you get more finishes in the men's fights. Judges are
- 20:29Speaker 2: so bad nowadays, like who knows what they watch half
- 20:32Speaker 2: the time, So like, if any fight goes the decision
- 20:35Speaker 2: and you think it's twenty nine to twenty eight, it
- 20:37Speaker 2: very well might be thirty twenty seven on the other side.
- 20:40Speaker 2: So I just feel like there's more more outs to
- 20:43Speaker 2: get lucky, is how I look at it. So I
- 20:46Speaker 2: think she has a striking advantage, and at the end
- 20:48Speaker 2: of the day, as a plus two hundred dog with
- 20:51Speaker 2: an advantage, I'll take a shot at seventy two hundred.
- 20:54Speaker 2: I like it though, all right, we'll keep it rolling.
- 20:58Speaker 2: Next fight on the card Jung Young Park taking on
- 21:00Speaker 2: Ismaul Nerdy of minus one eighty five Park plus one
- 21:03Speaker 2: sixty is Nerdy of plus one oh five for this
- 21:06Speaker 2: fight to finish Park plus one eighty five inside the distance,
- 21:09Speaker 2: Nerdi of plus four hundred. Take it away? What do
- 21:12Speaker 2: you like?
- 21:14Speaker 3: I kind of like the underdog in this one, but
- 21:17Speaker 3: I do like both sides. This is another one where
- 21:19Speaker 3: I might move it to a four because Park is
- 21:22Speaker 3: a guy that does have a high ceiling. He'll push
- 21:24Speaker 3: forward like a zombie on the feet. Could even knock
- 21:27Speaker 3: out Nordiyev if if he's just you know, putting it
- 21:29Speaker 3: on him. But Nordiev is the better, more technical striker
- 21:35Speaker 3: with more tools in a striking box in my opinion,
- 21:38Speaker 3: so Park for this one should look to wrestle, and
- 21:41Speaker 3: when he does, he could chain wrestle and he could
- 21:43Speaker 3: put up a big score. So I'm fine with some
- 21:45Speaker 3: Park exposure, but I think this fight mainly plays out
- 21:48Speaker 3: on the feet, and I think Nordiev is the better striker.
- 21:50Speaker 3: Nordiev also took around from Sean Brady, who I think
- 21:53Speaker 3: is better than Sean. Parky got kicked out of the
- 21:55Speaker 3: UFC to work on his wrestling game, and I feel
- 21:58Speaker 3: like he's probably done that as the younger guy with
- 22:02Speaker 3: more you are, more MMA experience. I think the underdog's
- 22:07Speaker 3: very live here and I'll be overweight to Nordiev and
- 22:09Speaker 3: maybe around the field or a little bit underweight to Park.
- 22:13Speaker 2: I'm with you. My preferred play is Nerdy of and
- 22:17Speaker 2: namely has to do with just Again, I don't love
- 22:19Speaker 2: too many underdogs. Great money line value for him four
- 22:23Speaker 2: plus four hundred inside the distance is solid and I
- 22:25Speaker 2: think Park can wrestle in this one. I think he
- 22:27Speaker 2: could win the striking battle, but again, he has to
- 22:30Speaker 2: beat a lot of people in his range, like I
- 22:32Speaker 2: prefer Oral Bay, Round Tree, namof Mallins alas Eva. But
- 22:39Speaker 2: with all that being said, I do think a lot
- 22:41Speaker 2: of the field does as well, and I when I
- 22:43Speaker 2: play Park, it'll be in chalkier lineups, and that's a
- 22:46Speaker 2: way to get different. I'm not looking to like drop
- 22:48Speaker 2: down from Oban Elliott to Park and do it that way.
- 22:51Speaker 2: I leave less money in Park lineups, but I'm eating
- 22:54Speaker 2: more chalk and he's my pivot right there. So yeah,
- 22:57Speaker 2: I'm with you. I like Nordiev in this one as well.
- 23:00Speaker 2: Keep her rolling. Next fight on the card we have
- 23:03Speaker 2: Oban Elliott taking on Souk hun Co Mine sport fifty
- 23:07Speaker 2: five is Elliott co is plus three fifty five the
- 23:11Speaker 2: biggest favorite on the card. We are looking at right here,
- 23:14Speaker 2: So I guess how much wrestling upside is there, Oh
- 23:17Speaker 2: excuse me sorry, plus one seventy for Elliott to finish,
- 23:20Speaker 2: plus four hundred for Co so Co's plus three fifty
- 23:24Speaker 2: money line, and he's plus four hundred inside the distance.
- 23:27Speaker 2: If he wins, it's almost surely a knockout, is what
- 23:30Speaker 2: the books are saying. How do you see Elliott approaching
- 23:33Speaker 2: this fight? Is it a lot of wrestling? I think
- 23:35Speaker 2: that's probably what we need at ninety five hundred.
- 23:39Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't think it would be enough wrestling. I
- 23:41Speaker 3: just see it being a full MMA fight from him.
- 23:44Speaker 3: He'll see how he can do on the feet, and
- 23:46Speaker 3: if he's cruising there, maybe he'll keep it there or
- 23:48Speaker 3: land a takedown to really put a stamp on the round.
- 23:50Speaker 1: But for me, this just looks.
- 23:53Speaker 3: Like fifteen minutes of UFC time for Elliott.
- 23:57Speaker 1: He just looks better everywhere.
- 23:58Speaker 3: But yeah, Co could bring it, just get a little
- 24:00Speaker 3: bit crazy, turn it into a brawl and clip them.
- 24:03Speaker 3: If he's not getting the knockout, I just don't know
- 24:05Speaker 3: how he's winning minutes. Oban should be the better striker,
- 24:07Speaker 3: should be the better wrestler. I just don't like like
- 24:10Speaker 3: his ninety five hundred dollars price tag. Especially if he's
- 24:13Speaker 3: not gonna finish. I doubt he lands more than like
- 24:15Speaker 3: three or four takedowns here, because if he lands one,
- 24:18Speaker 3: he probably gets to keep all out of that control
- 24:20Speaker 3: time without co getting up and then the return to
- 24:22Speaker 3: the mat.
- 24:23Speaker 1: So I'll be underweight to the fight as a whole.
- 24:25Speaker 3: I'd be okay playing either one of them, but not
- 24:28Speaker 3: a fight I'm looking to target.
- 24:30Speaker 2: Yeah, I was. I wanted your take on this fight
- 24:32Speaker 2: with the Elliott stuff, So I'm probably gonna be underweight
- 24:35Speaker 2: Elliott go like now that I that I say it.
- 24:38Speaker 2: A lot of the reason is again, I like Blades,
- 24:41Speaker 2: I like Naiamov, I like Mullins, I like alex Eva.
- 24:45Speaker 2: You can even drop two hundred from Elliott to to
- 24:48Speaker 2: gear and get a little different. Like I think I'm
- 24:50Speaker 2: leaving money when I am, I'm leaving money up top,
- 24:52Speaker 2: mainly to get different high nine k's mid nine k's
- 24:56Speaker 2: to high AK low nine k. I can easily see
- 25:00Speaker 2: any of them outscoring Elliott that way, So I like it.
- 25:03Speaker 2: I'll probably be underweight this fight. I do think Elliott's
- 25:06Speaker 2: just better wherever the fight does go, though, next fight
- 25:09Speaker 2: on the card another pretty good sized favorites Muhammed Nimov
- 25:13Speaker 2: minus two seventy taking them bogue do on Grod plus
- 25:16Speaker 2: two to thirty minus one thirty five for this fight
- 25:18Speaker 2: to finish, plus one fifty inside the distance for Naimov,
- 25:22Speaker 2: plus three fifteen inside the distance for Grod. Take this
- 25:25Speaker 2: fight away. This one should be fun.
- 25:29Speaker 1: Yeah, Grod coming off a solid fight.
- 25:32Speaker 3: He could put up a high pace. He was getting it.
- 25:35Speaker 3: He was definitely losing the first round, and I was
- 25:38Speaker 3: thinking I was gonna have an under an overweight stance
- 25:43Speaker 3: to somebody that was low and I was like, Oh,
- 25:45Speaker 3: we're looking good here, and then he gets destroyed in
- 25:47Speaker 3: the second round.
- 25:48Speaker 1: But that was good to see for Grod.
- 25:50Speaker 3: I think that this is another fight where he probably
- 25:54Speaker 3: is just gonna get a little bit manhandled.
- 25:57Speaker 1: By name Off.
- 25:57Speaker 3: If name Off wants to wrestle, I think he can
- 25:59Speaker 3: wrestle in the first round, and I think he's also
- 26:03Speaker 3: live to win a striking match in the first round two.
- 26:06Speaker 3: Grod is hit able, even though he throws a lot
- 26:08Speaker 3: of punches. But the longer this fight goes, I could
- 26:11Speaker 3: see Grod just turning it into a crazy fight and
- 26:14Speaker 3: then him picking up the paces the fight moves along,
- 26:17Speaker 3: I don't hate Gorod exposure here, maybe I'll have more
- 26:19Speaker 3: of him than name of Actually, because I'm looking for
- 26:23Speaker 3: underdogs on this card. He's live to win. He's also
- 26:25Speaker 3: live to put up a big score as an underdog.
- 26:28Speaker 3: I just think that name Ov is a little bit
- 26:30Speaker 3: better everywhere, and if he can keep up the cardio
- 26:32Speaker 3: in this fight, he should get his hand raised twenty
- 26:35Speaker 3: nine to twenty eight. Maybe he doesn't get it done
- 26:37Speaker 3: on DraftKings though, so I'll probably go underweight to him there,
- 26:41Speaker 3: but definitely can't fade him because Grod is so hittable.
- 26:44Speaker 3: He can be taken down. So name IV has the
- 26:47Speaker 3: potential to put up.
- 26:48Speaker 1: A big score. We're just gonna need him to put
- 26:50Speaker 1: it together for three rounds.
- 26:53Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I did not like what I saw
- 26:55Speaker 2: from Grod. He he'll fight for my dollar and he
- 26:58Speaker 2: has big time offside. I'll push a being a fun fight.
- 27:01Speaker 2: But like Alexander lost himself that fight. In my opinion,
- 27:04Speaker 2: he just completely gassed. He lost it more than Grod
- 27:07Speaker 2: won it. I just don't see Naimov folding like that.
- 27:11Speaker 2: I think he can fight for fifteen minutes, and if
- 27:13Speaker 2: Alexander could in that fight, like Naimov can wrestle, Alexander
- 27:16Speaker 2: is a striker. Gorod's gonna be one of the highest
- 27:19Speaker 2: owned underdogs. I think I'm gonna have a good bit
- 27:21Speaker 2: of Naimov. You get some leverage off of Grod, but again,
- 27:25Speaker 2: I think Grod makes it a fun fight. I'm gonna
- 27:27Speaker 2: play Grod because when he wins, he scores really well.
- 27:30Speaker 2: But I think he'll force Nameov in a scoring pretty well,
- 27:33Speaker 2: whether that's mixing in takedowns. Gorod super hittable. Like you said,
- 27:37Speaker 2: Naimov live for a ko. I'm fine going Oban Elliott
- 27:40Speaker 2: down in Naimov and leaving seven hundred. I prefer Naimov
- 27:43Speaker 2: the park. I look at Naimov mens alex Eva, all
- 27:47Speaker 2: very similar though, all with wrestling upside, all with similar
- 27:51Speaker 2: inside the distance props, and again I'm fine living it.
- 27:54Speaker 2: I wouldn't be shocked if any of those three were
- 27:56Speaker 2: the highest scores on the slate. So I'm fine going
- 27:58Speaker 2: any of the Sadykovs Elliott's to Gears, any of them,
- 28:03Speaker 2: saving the money and playing them as a way to
- 28:05Speaker 2: get different. So definitely a great fight to target. I
- 28:08Speaker 2: prefer the nine mop side though, and I do think
- 28:10Speaker 2: a lot of people gravitate toward Gorod because of that
- 28:14Speaker 2: price tag, because of that big score he put up
- 28:16Speaker 2: last time. Speaking of the man, Sadikv minus four thirty
- 28:21Speaker 2: taking on Nicholas Mada minus two fifty for this fight
- 28:24Speaker 2: to finish, Sadikov minus won sixty five inside the distance
- 28:28Speaker 2: Mada plus five hundred. Then we're looking at Sadikov in
- 28:31Speaker 2: round one at plus one point eighty. He is my favorites.
- 28:37Speaker 2: He's my favorite in the upper tier, like like the
- 28:40Speaker 2: top three Oban to gear. Sadikov he is my clear
- 28:43Speaker 2: favorite there. I think there's wrestling upside. I think he's
- 28:46Speaker 2: better than Mada everywhere. Mada, I mean he has super superpowers.
- 28:51Speaker 2: I was gonna at superpower superpowers. The dude can absolutely
- 28:55Speaker 2: crack when he lands, but low volume, and if he
- 28:58Speaker 2: isn't landing, he's just getting beat up pretty bad. And
- 29:01Speaker 2: what Trey Ogden did to him on the mat, I mean,
- 29:03Speaker 2: I think sadikll should take it down and absolutely roll
- 29:06Speaker 2: him that way. So what do you see it in
- 29:08Speaker 2: this one?
- 29:11Speaker 1: Yeah? To me, Mada is kind of like.
- 29:15Speaker 3: What's his name, Jared Sir Jekie or whatever his name
- 29:18Speaker 3: was from a couple of weeks ago.
- 29:20Speaker 1: Sarah, Yeah, whatever the heck his name was.
- 29:21Speaker 3: Where he's got that the power in his hands early
- 29:25Speaker 3: in the fight, and he could land a shot and
- 29:27Speaker 3: put the guy away and score a hundred plus points.
- 29:29Speaker 3: But that's really what he's best at, and if he
- 29:32Speaker 3: doesn't do that, he's not good at too much. He's
- 29:34Speaker 3: not a good wrestler, he's not a good point fighter
- 29:36Speaker 3: on the feet. I think Sadikov is better everywhere in
- 29:39Speaker 3: this fight, maybe aside from pure punching power early in
- 29:44Speaker 3: the fight. So my plan is to fade the Mada
- 29:46Speaker 3: power and go under or just completely fade him and
- 29:50Speaker 3: then probably go underweight to the field on Sadikov if
- 29:53Speaker 3: he's gonna be popular, and leave salary on the table.
- 29:57Speaker 3: But I do think Sadikov is one of my most
- 30:00Speaker 3: confident picks on the car.
- 30:01Speaker 1: That's why I got the five and one star on
- 30:03Speaker 1: this one.
- 30:04Speaker 3: I just don't love sharing a bunch of lineups on
- 30:07Speaker 3: this card where I am actually okay getting different, where
- 30:10Speaker 3: I don't feel that way on a lot of cards.
- 30:12Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm with you, Like Santeko is my favorite up top,
- 30:15Speaker 2: but I do think he is gonna get steam. So
- 30:18Speaker 2: I'm fine, Like we keep saying dropping down to that
- 30:20Speaker 2: high eight k range and getting different that way, all right,
- 30:24Speaker 2: we will keep it rolling. Next fight on the card,
- 30:27Speaker 2: we have whatever his first name, oral By taking on
- 30:32Speaker 2: two feet Mousaiav minus one fifty seven is oral By
- 30:36Speaker 2: plus one thirty seven is musaiav minus one fifty for
- 30:39Speaker 2: this fight to finish both guys plus one ninety. I'm
- 30:42Speaker 2: looking at wrestler and oral Bi against striker in musaiav.
- 30:46Speaker 2: Mussaiah to make it his UFC debut at thirty five
- 30:49Speaker 2: years old, eight year age gap. Massaiah has taken a
- 30:52Speaker 2: good amount of money since Tuesday. I love targeting this fight.
- 30:57Speaker 2: Do you have a preferred side? What are you doing?
- 31:01Speaker 1: Yeah? I like this fight.
- 31:01Speaker 3: It's one of my favorites to target. My preferred side
- 31:05Speaker 3: is gonna be oral By. I just think he's the
- 31:07Speaker 3: more well rounded fighter and his edge is gonna be
- 31:10Speaker 3: on the ground, which is where we could score high
- 31:12Speaker 3: in this one. Orbi could get eight takedowns in this
- 31:15Speaker 3: fight and score one hundred and ten plus in a decision,
- 31:18Speaker 3: which is always a fighter I'm looking to target. I
- 31:22Speaker 3: also think he could win minutes on the feet too.
- 31:25Speaker 3: I don't know how good this Mussaiev guy is. I
- 31:27Speaker 3: think he looked pretty good on film, but he's thirty
- 31:30Speaker 3: five years old, and if this fight wasn't in Baku,
- 31:33Speaker 3: he's probably not making his UFC debut, to be honest.
- 31:35Speaker 3: So maybe he has a striking edge. Maybe he could
- 31:38Speaker 3: knock out or By. He looked like a decent wrestler
- 31:41Speaker 3: on the regional scene too. I just have a hard
- 31:43Speaker 3: time seeing him be able to wrestle oral By. And
- 31:45Speaker 3: I don't think he's gonna look like that.
- 31:47Speaker 1: Much of a striking edge on the feet against oral
- 31:51Speaker 1: By either.
- 31:52Speaker 3: So I'll probably be around the field just in case
- 31:55Speaker 3: on him, but I plan on being over the field
- 31:57Speaker 3: on oral By. He has one of the highest ceilings
- 31:59Speaker 3: on the car top two to three ceiling in my opinion,
- 32:01Speaker 3: so oral By.
- 32:03Speaker 1: But I'll be overweight as a hole to this fight.
- 32:05Speaker 2: I think I'm in agreement with you. I I want
- 32:09Speaker 2: to be overweight on this fight. I don't. I'm fine
- 32:13Speaker 2: making an oral By team dropping down to MUSAIV and
- 32:16Speaker 2: leaving eight hundred with the money line keep like continuing
- 32:19Speaker 2: to close and the same inside the distance Musaiah's live
- 32:23Speaker 2: for knockout. Pretty much any round Oralby is hittable, But man,
- 32:27Speaker 2: this dude Orbi will fight for your dollar. He will
- 32:30Speaker 2: wrestle for days, and those are the type of fighters
- 32:32Speaker 2: I like to back. At the end of the day.
- 32:34Speaker 2: If I had fifty percent Oral by thirty percent Movesaia,
- 32:37Speaker 2: I'm in. I fifty percent Musaia of thirty percent oral Bi,
- 32:41Speaker 2: I think I'm in as well, as long as I
- 32:43Speaker 2: like everything else. So easy answer or cop out answer.
- 32:47Speaker 2: I don't have a strong lean on the side. I
- 32:49Speaker 2: do want a lot of this fight, though, and then
- 32:51Speaker 2: if you are not playing Roundtree Hill in any lineups,
- 32:55Speaker 2: I'm almost sure to play this fight right in the
- 32:57Speaker 2: same range. I don't like the NASA Tobam Moonday's phys
- 33:01Speaker 2: fight as much. If I'm fading the main event, I'm
- 33:04Speaker 2: almost surely playing this fight in the mid tier, then
- 33:06Speaker 2: probably going stars and scrubs after it. So really good
- 33:09Speaker 2: fight to target wrestler or Bai taking on the striker
- 33:13Speaker 2: in Musayev. All right, three fights left again. I appreciate
- 33:18Speaker 2: everyone hanging out. Love how you guys discussing fights in
- 33:21Speaker 2: the chat as well. Curtis Blades minus two thirty five
- 33:26Speaker 2: taking on Rivzon Canoy, Canuia, Canulia say it say it
- 33:30Speaker 2: for media Kudiev kunief konie of plus two hundred minus
- 33:35Speaker 2: one fifty for this fight to finish Blades plus one
- 33:38Speaker 2: fifteen inside the distance Coonia plus three eighty five three yeah,
- 33:44Speaker 2: plus three eighty five. So this fight was supposed to
- 33:46Speaker 2: take place. Let me get the exact date, right March eighth.
- 33:50Speaker 2: This fight was supposed to take place. Curtis Blades pulled
- 33:53Speaker 2: out on fight day due to an illness. That line
- 33:57Speaker 2: closed at minus three thirty five. When that fight got
- 34:00Speaker 2: canceled for Blades, he is now minus two thirty five.
- 34:04Speaker 2: That is a whole dollar. We haven't seen any of
- 34:06Speaker 2: these dudes fight. Nothing has changed. It just begt it
- 34:09Speaker 2: a couple months later, but Blades is a dollar shorter
- 34:13Speaker 2: favorites than he was that day to start there. Blades
- 34:16Speaker 2: obviously everyone. If you don't know, just look at the stone.
- 34:19Speaker 2: He's a wrestler for days, nasty ground and pound, his
- 34:22Speaker 2: striking severely underrated. He loses to ask when all who
- 34:25Speaker 2: cares the dude can strike good comeback win over El Maida,
- 34:30Speaker 2: but man minus two thirty five when it was minus
- 34:32Speaker 2: three thirty five. Why do you think that is? And
- 34:34Speaker 2: what are you doing in this one?
- 34:37Speaker 3: Maybe it's because he pulled out. I also feel like
- 34:39Speaker 3: money was coming in on him maybe that week. I
- 34:41Speaker 3: could be wrong, but I do remember being heavy on
- 34:44Speaker 3: Blaze because I heard some interview that made me think
- 34:47Speaker 3: he was gonna wrestle, And if Blade's gonna wrestle, I
- 34:50Speaker 3: want to be all over Blades in DFS because he's
- 34:53Speaker 3: one of the best heavyweight wrestlers we've seen, and he's
- 34:55Speaker 3: very active once he gets it to the ground too.
- 34:58Speaker 1: He's got nasty elbows.
- 34:59Speaker 3: I feel like if he gets it to the ground,
- 35:01Speaker 3: he's probably gonna put this guy away with elbows at
- 35:03Speaker 3: some point. And he's also a good striker, probably the
- 35:07Speaker 3: better striker. If we're turning like if we're turning knockouts off,
- 35:10Speaker 3: if this is a video game, we turn knockouts off.
- 35:12Speaker 3: I think Blades wins this fight, but I don't trust
- 35:15Speaker 3: him to wrestle always, and I really don't trust his chin.
- 35:17Speaker 3: I think konev is live for a first round knockout,
- 35:20Speaker 3: live for a knockout in any round, but he can
- 35:23Speaker 3: absolutely break the slate with the first round knockout, and
- 35:26Speaker 3: I think that that's a decent possibility, way more so
- 35:29Speaker 3: than Mada. So my plan is to go overweight Blades,
- 35:34Speaker 3: as in, he's my favorite fighter to target on this card,
- 35:38Speaker 3: and then I'll get hedge money on Kuoniev, probably make
- 35:41Speaker 3: some handbuilt Koniev lineups just to get him in my
- 35:44Speaker 3: favorite ones with my favorite guys to target, and hope
- 35:48Speaker 3: that this is not a three round striking match.
- 35:52Speaker 1: Give me Blades.
- 35:54Speaker 2: Yeah, was this fight? Maybe it was like announced and
- 36:00Speaker 2: then it like didn't even get to to fight day.
- 36:02Speaker 2: I don't know, I know it is.
- 36:04Speaker 3: I'm pretty sure it is because I didn't even look
- 36:06Speaker 3: into it this time. I'm just going off of memory
- 36:08Speaker 3: on looking at it two times. So Mike Cooney have fight,
- 36:14Speaker 3: I don't think faced.
- 36:15Speaker 2: Off once and like they got that deep. Maybe it
- 36:17Speaker 2: was scheduled for another and got pulled out like earlier
- 36:20Speaker 2: and something like that. Probably, so you're probably right, it
- 36:23Speaker 2: probably is the third time. But these guys legit squared
- 36:25Speaker 2: off on Friday the night before and it got canceled
- 36:28Speaker 2: on fight day, So yeah, it very well might be
- 36:31Speaker 2: the third time. But like the UFC is continuing to
- 36:35Speaker 2: like make this fight like Kunioff has not made his
- 36:37Speaker 2: debut like debut against Curtis Blades. The UFC has to
- 36:42Speaker 2: like this guy. He's taking money on a card I
- 36:45Speaker 2: don't like many dogs, and his upside is as much
- 36:47Speaker 2: as anyone. Like he knocks out Blades in a round
- 36:50Speaker 2: like Blades can't get his wrestling going. This cooniy Of
- 36:52Speaker 2: guy's dangerous. So I'm definitely gonna play a good amount
- 36:55Speaker 2: of Coonie of down below. I'm also gonna play a
- 36:57Speaker 2: good amount of Curtis Blades as well. Well. Yeah, sometimes
- 37:01Speaker 2: I look at that like this would be a huge
- 37:03Speaker 2: win for Kunia. It's like the UFC wants them to
- 37:06Speaker 2: win at this point. So interesting, interesting line movement, interesting,
- 37:11Speaker 2: They're continuing to roll this fight. A lot of interesting
- 37:14Speaker 2: parts in it. But Blade's a wrestler, Kunia of a striker,
- 37:17Speaker 2: and Blades can can strike two. It's gonna be a
- 37:20Speaker 2: fun one, all right. Some uh, some differences in this
- 37:25Speaker 2: last one. Our man Marquis said this Baha Mundes fight
- 37:27Speaker 2: should be a four star. You have a three star,
- 37:30Speaker 2: and I responded, heck, I think it maybe should be
- 37:32Speaker 2: a two star. Agnascia Baja Munde is eighty two hundred
- 37:36Speaker 2: taken on Rafiel phyze A K Baja Mundes minus one
- 37:40Speaker 2: thirty favorite Phaze plus one ten underdog plus one thirty
- 37:44Speaker 2: five for this fight to finish the Z plus two
- 37:47Speaker 2: sixty five inside the distance Baja Mundes plus three thirty five.
- 37:51Speaker 2: I'll get my quick thoughts and why I do not
- 37:53Speaker 2: like to fight and it should be a two star.
- 37:55Speaker 2: I respect both guys so much. I think there's no
- 37:59Speaker 2: wrestling upside on either. If someone does, it's physib Baha
- 38:03Speaker 2: Mundes is hard to get taken down Phaz strikes, I think,
- 38:06Speaker 2: so we're just talking striking. This fight opened plus one
- 38:11Speaker 2: hundred to finish, It is now plus one thirty five
- 38:14Speaker 2: to finish. That's a lot of money on the over.
- 38:17Speaker 2: So this fight minus won sixty five to finish. I
- 38:20Speaker 2: don't see how these guys are optimal. If it goes
- 38:22Speaker 2: to decision, Baha Munda's gonna LD one hundred and fifty
- 38:24Speaker 2: significant strikes and score eighty four points. I don't think
- 38:28Speaker 2: that outscores Round Tree Hill in the mid tier. I
- 38:31Speaker 2: don't think that outscores Oral Bay and Musayev in the
- 38:34Speaker 2: mid tier. And like, just give me, give me a
- 38:38Speaker 2: stars and scrubs Bill. I was gonna screw this fight,
- 38:41Speaker 2: so there's not not really anyone. It's give me a
- 38:42Speaker 2: nerdy of park fight. Like I just striking in a
- 38:46Speaker 2: decision usually does not end well for dfs if there's
- 38:50Speaker 2: a couple knockdowns, of course, but we're looking at almost
- 38:53Speaker 2: a coin flip in this one. Now, who's gonna win
- 38:55Speaker 2: the fight? I don't have a strong lean. Phaziv opened
- 38:58Speaker 2: minus two five is now the underdog, which is interesting.
- 39:02Speaker 2: Baha Mund is on a phenomenal run. Bahmund is huge
- 39:05Speaker 2: for the division. He'll have a look at that eight
- 39:08Speaker 2: inches in height, four inches in reach, five years younger fighter. Again,
- 39:14Speaker 2: you're parlaying getting the fight right, and it's scoring enough
- 39:18Speaker 2: to be optimal. I just don't want to worry about it.
- 39:21Speaker 2: I'll cap both guys again. They're going to be pretty
- 39:23Speaker 2: low owned. I'll use them in chalk your lineups. I
- 39:26Speaker 2: don't want to leave much money with them. I don't
- 39:28Speaker 2: know who wins, and I think it goes to decision
- 39:30Speaker 2: and the books due too, and I don't think there's wrestling.
- 39:33Speaker 2: So for all those reasons, I don't like this fight.
- 39:35Speaker 2: I will be underweight, yes, like boring decision now I
- 39:39Speaker 2: think this could be a fine real life fight. Both
- 39:42Speaker 2: guys are so skilled it could be fun. But yeah,
- 39:45Speaker 2: I mean, I think both guys are good enough where
- 39:47Speaker 2: they don't get knocked out and it does go to
- 39:49Speaker 2: decision and it does score poorly, So it's a no
- 39:52Speaker 2: for me. What are you doing in this one?
- 39:55Speaker 3: I'm probably gonna be Bajamond's or passing this one. I
- 39:59Speaker 3: think Phisiev's only real DFS upside would be a knockout.
- 40:05Speaker 3: And I'm just I'm so impressed with Bajamond. I love
- 40:08Speaker 3: his pace that he strikes at and he's got real
- 40:11Speaker 3: skills on the feet too, and I think he is
- 40:13Speaker 3: a possible title contender title holder one day. So I'm
- 40:17Speaker 3: gonna take Bajamonds as my pick in the fight. And
- 40:20Speaker 3: I don't want to play both sides of this one,
- 40:22Speaker 3: so I'm just gonna be Bajamonde's or pass just to
- 40:27Speaker 3: make less lineup. So if I was making one hundred
- 40:29Speaker 3: and fifty, I would play a little bit of both sides,
- 40:31Speaker 3: but I'm not doing one to fifty on this card.
- 40:33Speaker 3: I'm trying to get closer to twenty, and for me
- 40:36Speaker 3: to do that, I'm probably gonna have to fade Phiziev completely.
- 40:39Speaker 3: I'm not gonna get too much Bajamond's but in lineups
- 40:42Speaker 3: that he fits, I mean, I'd rather have like him
- 40:46Speaker 3: over an Ousman. But at the same time, I'm okay
- 40:50Speaker 3: taking Usman over Baja Modes to try and take a
- 40:52Speaker 3: solo shot.
- 40:54Speaker 2: I preferred Phizie if I had to pick slightly, and
- 40:57Speaker 2: it was mainly due to the inside of the distance
- 40:59Speaker 2: in ronde props Fhazia plus two to sixty five to finish,
- 41:02Speaker 2: Bob Munas plus three thirty five Paz even round one
- 41:05Speaker 2: plus four seventy five Baha Munas plus six fifty And again,
- 41:09Speaker 2: I think we need a finish in this fight to
- 41:12Speaker 2: have the best chance at optimal. I just want to
- 41:14Speaker 2: take the guy with a more likely chance to finish
- 41:16Speaker 2: according to the books, and he's a two hundred dollars cheaper,
- 41:20Speaker 2: so just for that reason, but it's no strongly And
- 41:22Speaker 2: again I who's gonna win flip a coin? Is it
- 41:25Speaker 2: going to be optimal? You're flipping multiple coins after trying
- 41:28Speaker 2: to get it right. Just too many things. I wouldn't
- 41:30Speaker 2: play this fight in single entry. It's an MMV fight
- 41:33Speaker 2: to get different, but it's not my favorite way to
- 41:35Speaker 2: go about this car all right, main event time. What
- 41:40Speaker 2: a fight we have here? What a fights Jamal Hill,
- 41:44Speaker 2: Khalil Roundtree. We had it on Tuesday when I did
- 41:48Speaker 2: these odds. Minus one thirty four was Roundtree. It's open
- 41:52Speaker 2: minus one thirty five round Tree. On May fifteenth. It
- 41:57Speaker 2: got as low for round three as it's got it,
- 42:01Speaker 2: and slowly but surely money's been coming in, especially this week.
- 42:04Speaker 2: We have a straight pick him on bet online right
- 42:06Speaker 2: now minus one ten apiece. I will say I'm seeing
- 42:09Speaker 2: minus one thirty on draftings plus one ten or plus
- 42:12Speaker 2: minus one thirty round Tree plus one ten for Hill
- 42:15Speaker 2: on DK. Always price shop whatever. If you're a sports
- 42:18Speaker 2: better like you should, you have to price shop, so
- 42:22Speaker 2: the way to make it. But especially Mma like you
- 42:25Speaker 2: can arb this minus one ten plus one ten. Actually
- 42:28Speaker 2: that's not quite an arm spot, but those do happen
- 42:31Speaker 2: sometimes in MMA. Hill's taking a bunch of money. Both
- 42:35Speaker 2: of these guys lost to Alex Pereira. Jamal didn't look
- 42:38Speaker 2: good against the eerie. Klot was on a good little run,
- 42:42Speaker 2: but man, he wasn't really beating anyone that good. So
- 42:45Speaker 2: I'll let you talk. Most people watch him probably know
- 42:48Speaker 2: I'm a sweet dream slappy. It hasn't been great for
- 42:51Speaker 2: me as of late, so talk to me without any
- 42:53Speaker 2: bias in this one.
- 42:56Speaker 1: I mean I probably got some bias too.
- 42:57Speaker 3: I'm I feel like I'm pop committed to Hill at
- 43:00Speaker 3: this point, so I will be overweight on the hillside
- 43:05Speaker 3: for sure. But for man the first round, if this
- 43:10Speaker 3: fight's gonna end in the first round, I think it's
- 43:12Speaker 3: it's a higher chance round Tree. I think he is
- 43:14Speaker 3: more powerful, maybe more durable, but I just think Hills
- 43:18Speaker 3: the better striker, and he's also the higher volume striker.
- 43:21Speaker 3: And if anyone's gonna score well in the decision here,
- 43:24Speaker 3: it's gonna be Hill. I think the way this fight
- 43:26Speaker 3: doesn't make the optimal would be if Roundtree wins a decision,
- 43:30Speaker 3: and that would probably come from Hill just being too tentative,
- 43:34Speaker 3: not throwing the normal volume, or possibly a bad decision
- 43:37Speaker 3: which we've never seen before in the UFC. But I'll
- 43:41Speaker 3: be underweight to Roundtree, but I'll still be close to
- 43:46Speaker 3: all in on the fight. I'll probably be like eighty
- 43:48Speaker 3: five ninety percent on the fight, but I see me
- 43:50Speaker 3: having sixty percent Hill, maybe sixty five percent Hill, and
- 43:55Speaker 3: then whatever. That puts me at on the Roundtree side.
- 43:58Speaker 3: But this is the one fight I do want to
- 43:59Speaker 3: low up on. Take shots on both sides, take my
- 44:02Speaker 3: couple favorite round Tree lineups and put Hill in instead
- 44:05Speaker 3: and leave that salary there.
- 44:06Speaker 1: But Hill is my pick to win.
- 44:08Speaker 3: I think he has one hundred point upside in the
- 44:12Speaker 3: decision here if we can see the usual volume that
- 44:14Speaker 3: we had.
- 44:14Speaker 1: In the past in round three.
- 44:17Speaker 3: Aside from his knockout power, He's never a great minute
- 44:21Speaker 3: winner in UFC fights, and even against poor competition, he
- 44:25Speaker 3: hasn't been a good minute winner in the past.
- 44:27Speaker 1: So I'm gonna be heavy on Hill here.
- 44:29Speaker 3: He's my second favorite or yeah, second favorite fighter behind Blades.
- 44:35Speaker 2: Yeah, Jamal is my favorite fighter on the card. Again,
- 44:37Speaker 2: I'm I'm biased a little bit. I just this is
- 44:42Speaker 2: a lie. The reason I'm not betting Jamal pre fight,
- 44:45Speaker 2: and I think it's a great live betting spot is
- 44:47Speaker 2: I have one big concern. If Jamal doesn't do anything
- 44:50Speaker 2: about the light kicks from round Tree, I think he's
- 44:52Speaker 2: in trouble and they're very well he might not. He
- 44:55Speaker 2: does switch dances fine, but round Tree nasty kicks, t kicks,
- 44:59Speaker 2: body kicks, light kicks. I'm worried that Jamal doesn't check him,
- 45:03Speaker 2: his distance, management, his power. As you guys see with
- 45:07Speaker 2: a lot of fights, once the leg's gone gg unless
- 45:10Speaker 2: you're oh, gosh, this gives me nightmare. Still, unless you're
- 45:13Speaker 2: Yuri p Hashka against who's the rackage. Oh I lost
- 45:19Speaker 2: so much money kept live betting rackets. He's flowing up
- 45:22Speaker 2: the Yeerie legs and he's the one. Dude. I guess
- 45:24Speaker 2: it doesn't matter, but more times than not, once that
- 45:26Speaker 2: legs toast, you just can't do anything. You have to
- 45:29Speaker 2: switch stances, you can't drive off anything. I'm worried about
- 45:33Speaker 2: that early. If Roundtree doesn't go to him early or
- 45:36Speaker 2: he'll has a good answer. I think at distance, Jamal,
- 45:39Speaker 2: the jab, the boxing, I just think it's all Jamal
- 45:42Speaker 2: the volume. Round Tree won't be able to catch up.
- 45:45Speaker 2: Sure he can land the big shot, but once Jamal
- 45:48Speaker 2: gets in his rhythm, which again it's a lot easier,
- 45:51Speaker 2: like Yeerie would beat round Tree. In my opinion, Prera
- 45:54Speaker 2: did beat him. If Jamal can get it going and
- 45:57Speaker 2: stuff the leg kicks or ear least check him or
- 45:59Speaker 2: do something about him. I just think he just keeps
- 46:02Speaker 2: snowballing each round, the volume keeps wearing enough, the nose
- 46:05Speaker 2: is busted, and then he finally finds the kills shots.
- 46:09Speaker 2: So I'm on sweet dreams. On sweet dreams a lot.
- 46:12Speaker 2: You're talking pock committed right up my alley. I am
- 46:14Speaker 2: definitely pockmmitted on this guy. I will have more Hill
- 46:18Speaker 2: than round Tree. I'm totally fine building a round three
- 46:21Speaker 2: team take out round Tree, play Jamal Hill, leave six
- 46:24Speaker 2: hundred plus. That is also a way I will be
- 46:27Speaker 2: looking to get different. Should be a fun fight though,
- 46:30Speaker 2: should be a fun fight if you get this fight
- 46:32Speaker 2: three years ago Samal Hills minus two fifty, which is
- 46:35Speaker 2: the crazy part in the sport that we play. But yeah,
- 46:39Speaker 2: a couple of brutal knockouts. Now you're looking at a
- 46:42Speaker 2: pick them. I am sad though, he'll's taking money like
- 46:44Speaker 2: I was on Hill the whole time. I was hoping
- 46:47Speaker 2: it was gonna be plus one thirty something like that,
- 46:49Speaker 2: so round Tree would be higher ONNED. I don't like
- 46:52Speaker 2: seeing minus one ten, but I'm still playing more of
- 46:55Speaker 2: the hillside. I'm gonna go with my I know fights.
- 46:58Speaker 2: I'm being able to leave money and go that way.
- 47:01Speaker 2: Any any final thoughts for you on this card. It
- 47:03Speaker 2: should be a solid one.
- 47:06Speaker 1: Yeah.
- 47:06Speaker 3: I don't have any bets yet, but Hill at plus
- 47:08Speaker 3: money was my favorite that I was looking at and
- 47:10Speaker 3: I missed it, not against it at any plus money,
- 47:14Speaker 3: So maybe it'll happen. But yeah, hopefully it's just a
- 47:18Speaker 3: good DFS card, And I think that this could be
- 47:20Speaker 3: one where somebody does take it down solo.
- 47:22Speaker 1: Hopefully it's me, are you? Good luck to you title,
- 47:24Speaker 1: good luck to everybody listening. Let's ship it.
- 47:27Speaker 2: Yeah, hopefully it's somebody in this chat. Again. Remember twelve
- 47:30Speaker 2: pm Eastern time is the fight nine am I time.
- 47:34Speaker 2: If you got to set an alarm, get stuff in
- 47:36Speaker 2: the night before. All of our content projections ownership will
- 47:39Speaker 2: be up tomorrow like usual. And again, if you're not
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- 47:45Speaker 2: Projections ownership for all sports, the Stone, the Sleigh plan
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- 47:52Speaker 2: nine dollars. Use the code UFC seventy five gets you
- 47:56Speaker 2: it for twenty four dollars, less than a dollar a day.
- 47:59Speaker 2: I will headed over right now using our content NBA
- 48:03Speaker 2: Showdown Slate plan. See what my man Rio has to
- 48:06Speaker 2: think I'll be cheering on the Pacers with Big Marley below,
- 48:09Speaker 2: hoping for a Game seven, one more chance to win
- 48:11Speaker 2: some cheese. Appreciate everyone hanging out, whether you're watching live,
- 48:15Speaker 2: watching on playback. If you have any hot takes, excited
- 48:18Speaker 2: to see it in the YouTube comment section. Again, like
- 48:21Speaker 2: Bunton helps us out a ton, Let's make some money
- 48:23Speaker 2: this week. Enjoy some early violence for my man, Big Marley.
- 48:27Speaker 2: I'm titled town good luck, be safe, Enjoy the weekend.
- 49:01Speaker 2: You know, any man with them and then with them