Latest / CRYPTO 101 / Ep. 717 Coinbase's Global Head of Research: Why Crypto Isn’t Following the Old Cycles
Transcript
- 0:08[SPEAKER_00]: all right everyone welcome back to the crypto 101 podcast hope everyone is having a fantastic morning or evening no matter where you're coming in from you're certainly in the right place here today and let me just say I know every time we come in here we're like man we got a special guest it's going to be exciting you guys are going to like this episode up today it's a really special one in fact we brought in one of the largest players in the crypto industry
- 0:33[SPEAKER_00]: It's a little exchange.
- 0:35[SPEAKER_00]: You might have heard of them.
- 0:36[SPEAKER_00]: No, all jokes aside, it's Coinbase.
- 0:39[SPEAKER_00]: Coinbase for people who don't know.
- 0:40[SPEAKER_00]: They are one of the largest crypto companies in the world.
- 0:42[SPEAKER_00]: They have over $500 billion in assets under management.
- 0:45[SPEAKER_00]: Over 100 million users worldwide, they're publicly traded on the New York Stock Exchange.
- 0:51[SPEAKER_00]: And, uh, man, we're glad to have you here.
- 0:54[SPEAKER_00]: We got David Dewan.
- 0:55[SPEAKER_00]: He is Coinbase's global head of research.
- 0:58[SPEAKER_00]: David, welcome to the show, and we appreciate your time.
- 1:01[SPEAKER_00]: That's my pleasure to be here.
- 1:02[SPEAKER_00]: Thanks.
- 1:03[SPEAKER_00]: Absolutely.
- 1:04[SPEAKER_00]: Well, let's just get straight into it.
- 1:05[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, let's talk about the markets crypto and everything.
- 1:09[SPEAKER_00]: Not just crypto.
- 1:10[SPEAKER_00]: Really everything here is moving out of million miles an hour.
- 1:14[SPEAKER_00]: It feels like everywhere you look, there's a different catalyst.
- 1:17[SPEAKER_00]: People are looking over at one direction and they're saying, oh, well, we see geopolitical.
- 1:21[SPEAKER_00]: They're looking at another direction.
- 1:22[SPEAKER_00]: They say, oh, well, we see energy.
- 1:24[SPEAKER_00]: Then they're looking at the federal reserve and then they're looking at, you know,
- 1:28[SPEAKER_00]: different crypto bills that are trying to get past and then there's this and that and of course the markets are also responding to this as really anything that's associated with risk, whether it's small cap equities, large cap equities, you've seen metals moving a lot which are typically more risk off, you've had energy going crazy and of course crypto is right at the center of this.
- 1:49[SPEAKER_00]: uh... in this again just so much going on here and so people just have questions and we're gonna get into that some uh... as we go through today's episode we're gonna dive through what's happening in the markets what you all are working on what you all have been up to and i think what you have here some really interesting insight because you get to work with some of the biggest players in the industry you get to talk to just about everyone and
- 2:14[SPEAKER_00]: I think one of the cool things about Coinbase is because you guys are one of the biggest players in crypto, you tend to be very innovative, but you also get the set that's standard.
- 2:22[SPEAKER_00]: And a lot of people like to follow in your footsteps and look toward what you're doing.
- 2:26[SPEAKER_00]: So excited to have you all on here.
- 2:28[SPEAKER_00]: I guess let's just go high level.
- 2:31[SPEAKER_00]: How did you get into all this stuff?
- 2:33[SPEAKER_00]: How does one get into a position where you are being the global head of research over at Coinbase?
- 2:42[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, that's a great question.
- 2:43[SPEAKER_01]: So I've been doing global markets research for the better part of 20 years.
- 2:49[SPEAKER_01]: I would say, and prior to joining crypto, I was in traditional finance.
- 2:53[SPEAKER_01]: So I worked for a few banks.
- 2:55[SPEAKER_01]: When I first started, I was actually a quant strategist over to Deutsche Bank.
- 2:59[SPEAKER_01]: I did that for about seven years, and I pivoted over to Macro, that meant I covered like Monterrey policy, fiscal policy, and I really specialized in emerging markets.
- 3:09[SPEAKER_01]: Like by the time I left, I was the head of Latin America research at each B.C.
- 3:15[SPEAKER_01]: I was really interested in crypto since probably 2017, but it was always this incremental kind of move into the space.
- 3:22[SPEAKER_01]: And I'll be honest, it wasn't Bitcoin that got me here.
- 3:25[SPEAKER_01]: It was mainly Ethereum.
- 3:27[SPEAKER_01]: Like I was a computer science major way back when.
- 3:30[SPEAKER_01]: So Ethereum made perfect sense to me.
- 3:33[SPEAKER_01]: And then after understanding that and kind of getting to that, I think I backed into Bitcoin later.
- 3:38[SPEAKER_01]: And then I finally understood
- 3:40[SPEAKER_01]: Bitcoin, a store value, what that represented, how investors could actually pursue it.
- 3:45[SPEAKER_01]: And yeah, I've been now with Coinbase for the better part of four years.
- 3:50[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, and it's wild how much the market has changed even in the last four or so years every single cycle it's something different right not only if you look at the top 100 coins, which I like to do you know I know coin market cap has this time machine tool and you can go back and you can take a look at the top 100 coins by market cap on any given date and you know I've been in crypto for a while as well and I always like going back and looking and being like what was it like in 2018 and then 2020 and then 2022 and now
- 4:19[SPEAKER_00]: 2026 and a lot has happened.
- 4:23[SPEAKER_00]: I think one of the big things recently is that over I would say maybe the last year or so
- 4:29[SPEAKER_00]: there's it been a huge shift in the way that crypto has been looked at.
- 4:34[SPEAKER_00]: It was very harshly regulated in recent years.
- 4:37[SPEAKER_00]: A lot of that has eased up.
- 4:39[SPEAKER_00]: There's been a lot of new infrastructure passed during the process of getting there.
- 4:45[SPEAKER_00]: That is enabling crypto to be a little bit more accessible and friendly and free.
- 4:50[SPEAKER_00]: And
- 4:52[SPEAKER_00]: I know we can't go into the specifics of it because a lot of the stuff around the clarity act in other things are still in work, so I don't want to get you in trouble there.
- 5:00[SPEAKER_00]: But I think people have looked at that and they said, well, a lot of stuff is fundamentally changed for the better here.
- 5:05[SPEAKER_00]: It looks like these crypto lawsuits aren't there anymore.
- 5:08[SPEAKER_00]: You see statistics growing, you see stablecoin growth, you see the growth in hyper liquid.
- 5:13[SPEAKER_00]: A lot of these networks, you know, Ethereum, for example, which you mentioned was the big cause they got you in, Ethereum doubled its prior cycles all time high in transactions while keeping gas fees under a send.
- 5:26[SPEAKER_00]: And most people look at them, they go, that's incredible.
- 5:29[SPEAKER_00]: But then they look at the state of the market here.
- 5:31[SPEAKER_00]: And I think people are nervous because despite seeing a lot of that, they look at the state of the market now and it being down, you know, some coins 40,
- 5:42[SPEAKER_00]: And I think that their nervous, that the spite seeing that kind of growth, the markets, or a little bit shaky at the moment, what is your view on what's happening here and what's going on?
- 5:54[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I think the regulatory side that you pointed out is a huge issue.
- 5:58[SPEAKER_01]: And I think that there's always been this nebulous idea about where the fundamentals fall in line for crypto because as you said, activity is going up like either a total value locked or transaction activity, maybe even the dollar value of that activity has also increased.
- 6:18[SPEAKER_01]: But yet, it's not necessarily translating into the token value itself.
- 6:23[SPEAKER_01]: And it's not uniform across the crypto space, right?
- 6:27[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, you have things like hyper-liquid where when the perpetual futures market start to grow and not just the volumes, but the open interest on these things and granted, they're really kind of pivoting towards real-world assets at the moment with like, you know, perps on gold and silver and oil, even the S&P 500.
- 6:46[SPEAKER_01]: you know, like I feel like they are obviously trying to cater to what people want, not just in the space, but more broadly, and to like, how do people want to invest?
- 6:54[SPEAKER_01]: How do people want to trade?
- 6:55[SPEAKER_01]: Just stuff, you know, that's out there.
- 6:58[SPEAKER_01]: So, I do think that as regulatory clarity, search creep in, and we saw the SEC come out with this taxonomy, for example.
- 7:04[SPEAKER_01]: more and more, we will have at least some ability to start saying, okay, hold on, like this is how we can actually put like some of that value structure from those fundamentals into the token value itself.
- 7:20[SPEAKER_00]: What has some of the change in regulation enabled you to do?
- 7:24[SPEAKER_00]: Again, I'm not sure.
- 7:26[SPEAKER_00]: Stop at any point.
- 7:27[SPEAKER_00]: I don't want to get you in trouble here, but what has some of the new regulation enabled you to do that you may be haven't been able to do before you weren't able to do before.
- 7:35[SPEAKER_00]: What does that look like?
- 7:38[SPEAKER_01]: Well, for institutions, it's still pretty hard.
- 7:41[SPEAKER_01]: If you're an institutional investor, for example, let's say you're a large macro hedge fund, I think that you're still red isn't till I do much besides do basis trading, for example, where you buy the spot, and then you sell the futures, and you're trying to capture that spread.
- 7:57[SPEAKER_01]: And,
- 7:58[SPEAKER_01]: They're doing it a lot of times using ETF rappers because even then there's like, well, we want to be inside a very related vehicle and yeah, some of this is a legacy of the Gary Gensler era, but so many of those funds are like, listen, we saw what happened.
- 8:12[SPEAKER_01]: We don't want to get a lawsuit from like the SEC at some point in the future.
- 8:16[SPEAKER_01]: let's we don't know what's going to happen like after this administration for example so really like until we get clarity from lawmakers themselves like it's not going to be finalized for a lot of institutional investors but you see that they want that exposure you know we ran a survey of institutional investors we asked them like
- 8:38[SPEAKER_01]: Hey, you know, Q4 volatility were you at all or you still inch in the space and like they, you know, three quarters of them came back with, oh, yeah, no, we still want to increase our allocations of the space.
- 8:48[SPEAKER_01]: Uh, so absolutely, I think they're inched it.
- 8:50[SPEAKER_01]: They're just waiting for something to so that they don't have to get themselves in trouble.
- 8:55[SPEAKER_00]: That institutional survey that you put out, that's this institutional crypto survey, for the listeners out there, if you have not gone through this, it's fascinating.
- 9:05[SPEAKER_00]: I think there's over 150 participants and you go through and there's all these awesome metrics and data and you get to see, like what?
- 9:13[SPEAKER_00]: the institutions, the big boys in the space are thinking and what they're doing in regards to crypto and real time.
- 9:20[SPEAKER_00]: And you guys put this out every single year around the start of the year.
- 9:22[SPEAKER_00]: I have some metrics on that and I want to go through it.
- 9:26[SPEAKER_00]: But who are some of the names that are involved in this thing?
- 9:31[SPEAKER_00]: Because there was a lot.
- 9:33[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, and every year we go out as you said with this survey and it's run with the EY Parthenon for anyone doesn't know or anyone who doesn't know that name and yeah we're really just trying to get into like are you still in this what are the terms that you're still into it.
- 9:48[SPEAKER_01]: Um, and it covers 351 institutional decision makers, and this includes, you know, uh, you know, your, your, your hedge funds includes family offices, uh, includes like mutual funds, and it tries to get to many parts of the world.
- 10:06[SPEAKER_01]: So it's not just US, but it's in the Europe, it's in Asia as well.
- 10:09[SPEAKER_01]: Your firm has to be worth more than, uh, I believe half a billion dollars on our management in order to be considered under the survey.
- 10:17[SPEAKER_01]: And, you know, so we're really trying to like get at like all right, what a like the key decision makers actually think about this stuff.
- 10:25[SPEAKER_01]: And that's where like their allocation and judicial assets, tokenization and stable points, all that stuff really matters.
- 10:32[SPEAKER_00]: That's a really important data point, saying number one, over 350 of them is a ton, and you're saying they have to have a level of success or credibility to them.
- 10:43[SPEAKER_00]: They have to be over around a half a billion.
- 10:47[SPEAKER_00]: It's big, because the average person, again, they always say, what are the whales doing?
- 10:51[SPEAKER_00]: What's going on?
- 10:52[SPEAKER_00]: And Coinbase has the unique platform.
- 10:55[SPEAKER_00]: When you're saying you have the credibility, you have the size,
- 10:58[SPEAKER_00]: you're able to collect all of this in one place and then what's crazy is that you just you publish the information on it.
- 11:06[SPEAKER_00]: So again, maybe we can link it down below in the show notes or we can link it somewhere beneath.
- 11:10[SPEAKER_00]: But I think it's worth a read for everyone because it gives you this deep insight into what's really going on.
- 11:17[SPEAKER_00]: So let's get into some of these metrics here because there was a couple that really stood out to me and I want to make sure that all the listeners are aware of them.
- 11:24[SPEAKER_00]: The first one was that nearly half at 49 percent of respondents have strengthened their emphasis on risk management, liquidity, and position sizing in response to a lot of the market volatility that we've seen here.
- 11:37[SPEAKER_00]: So that means that they've seen what's going on, they've seen the volatility, they've seen, you know, all the shenanigans, and they're saying we actually want to strengthen a lot of these different areas in regards to this.
- 11:51[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, absolutely.
- 11:52[SPEAKER_01]: And let's be clear here.
- 11:54[SPEAKER_01]: You mentioned a lot of like I love the term shenanigans that we see in this space and, you know, you've been in this space enough years.
- 12:01[SPEAKER_01]: We all know what you're kind of talking about.
- 12:03[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I think the world knows what we're talking about these days, but it's funny because I talked to the CIOs, I talked to these fine managers and the question that they're often resent most times isn't should we own crypto, should we own digital assets, it's
- 12:17[SPEAKER_01]: Okay, we want to like we want exposure, but under what risk framework we want to do that for which vehicles we want to do it with which counterparties it's a very different conversation than the one we had three to five years ago and I think that that's kind of what you'd expect when you see this as a class graduate from more of a small sleeve and people's portfolios to a strategic allocation that a lot of these large firms are taking.
- 12:43[SPEAKER_01]: So, I agree with you, I don't think that some of the recent drawdowns that we've seen have scared institutions away, but it has forced them to professionalize, you know, like half of those investors, as you said, you know, like volatility has made them tight in risk management.
- 12:58[SPEAKER_01]: They want to tighten the liquidity buffers.
- 13:00[SPEAKER_01]: They want to make sure that the position sizing is correct, but they aren't here running and fleeing for the exits.
- 13:06[SPEAKER_00]: your spot on.
- 13:08[SPEAKER_00]: I saw another study a little bit ago, and I'm sure the numbers have changed since I looked at it, but it was saying out of the ETF holders, it was something like five to 10% had sold, and you had around 90-ish percent which had stayed steady.
- 13:23[SPEAKER_00]: And it was,
- 13:25[SPEAKER_00]: telling because not only are the institutional investors doubling down, but you have the people who are in these positions for the long term, they're not going anywhere.
- 13:35[SPEAKER_00]: And I think that one of the things that people failed to understand is that if all these big asset managers and banks are allowing crypto trading and capabilities and all these other things, it's not a short term move for them.
- 13:47[SPEAKER_00]: They have to hire new people.
- 13:48[SPEAKER_00]: They have to create positions.
- 13:49[SPEAKER_00]: They have to create
- 13:54[SPEAKER_00]: and it needs to be seamless and perfect and then there's a whole security aspect to it.
- 13:58[SPEAKER_00]: Like there's a lot that goes into this and then you have to get the regulatory approvals and everything else and make sure that you're compliant.
- 14:04[SPEAKER_00]: There's a ton that goes into this.
- 14:05[SPEAKER_00]: This isn't some short-term play.
- 14:07[SPEAKER_00]: This is really a long-term bet and we've seen that in a reflection for what the institutions are saying and doing, but also what even I would say the average ETF holder is saying and doing.
- 14:18[SPEAKER_00]: And, you know, the next number here was that 73% of respondents from this institutional survey plan to increase their digital asset allocations throughout 2026 and then 74% even more of them expect crypto prices to rise over the next 12 months.
- 14:36[SPEAKER_00]: And so again, not only
- 14:38[SPEAKER_00]: Do we see their response, but they're saying, hey, we are planning on increasing exposure throughout this dip.
- 14:44[SPEAKER_00]: They're confident about it.
- 14:45[SPEAKER_00]: And then from this dip, they're saying we expect prices to be able to rise higher from here.
- 14:51[SPEAKER_01]: as heavily right.
- 14:51[SPEAKER_01]: You know, I think that right now we're in this transition phase where many have them have either experimented with or maybe they're still kind of in the experimentation phase, excuse me, but they're rapidly moving the execution.
- 15:04[SPEAKER_01]: And, I mean, this is just the truth of markets, right?
- 15:07[SPEAKER_01]: Like, I think that, you know, things operate on a curve and no one really wants to be that front of that curve.
- 15:12[SPEAKER_01]: Like, I saw some of the brave pioneers will because they're
- 15:20[SPEAKER_01]: institutions tend to want to be in the middle part of that curve.
- 15:23[SPEAKER_01]: So like they don't want to be the first ones to jump in, but once they see all of their other friends jump in, then they start to get envious, they realize that there's gains to be had and they don't want to be left behind.
- 15:35[SPEAKER_01]: So I think that the institutions aren't just testing the rails anymore.
- 15:38[SPEAKER_01]: They're not just testing wallets and saying like, oh, these primitives kind of work.
- 15:42[SPEAKER_01]: They are rapidly in the phase of, hey, let's integrate
- 15:48[SPEAKER_01]: explore what tokenized funds can actually have to offer.
- 15:51[SPEAKER_01]: Let's kind of look at what's going on with on-chain market structure.
- 15:55[SPEAKER_01]: So I think the previously one you would have these conversations with them.
- 15:58[SPEAKER_01]: They were like, oh, why do I want to on tokenize assets, whether they're bonds, or equities, or whatever, like, we don't believe that stuff.
- 16:05[SPEAKER_01]: Now you see skeptics like J.B. Morgan, like Jamie Diamond, actually going to have like, oh, we've always been in tokenization.
- 16:11[SPEAKER_01]: We want to do this stuff.
- 16:12[SPEAKER_01]: This is great.
- 16:13[SPEAKER_01]: Like, like, we never were like questioning the premise of this at all.
- 16:17[SPEAKER_01]: Where's such a different place?
- 16:19[SPEAKER_00]: It's has to have been interesting from where you sit seeing that change happen in real time because you probably had some conversations with either individual people or the general companies or organizations or whatever it may be and you've had conversations with them.
- 16:34[SPEAKER_00]: And it had to have been interesting watching that change over the last four or five years, right?
- 16:41[SPEAKER_01]: Oh, absolutely.
- 16:42[SPEAKER_01]: And I mean, I'm talking about institutional investors, but this also goes for like the Fortune 500 companies, although it's like small, medium size enterprises.
- 16:51[SPEAKER_01]: For example, like, there were a lot of skeptics out there, and you know, granted things change in part because
- 16:58[SPEAKER_01]: you know now you can actually have kept on your balance sheet like once upon a time you couldn't because you'd have to recognize it as an intangible asset meaning like you could only write it down you can never write it up now those same kind of firms are like maybe we could look at stablecoins as a working capital tool maybe people can start gangpaid in like and and the stuff like we use like stablecoins as payroll so it's like a massive shift from what
- 17:27[SPEAKER_00]: Well, we've come a long way, you know, fitting into this theme, I guess one of the final big takeaways was directly tied to this, which is what industries are, what verticals inside of crypto that they were the most interested in.
- 17:41[SPEAKER_00]: And it looked like a couple prevailed, but the two main ones that stood out to me were stablecoins and tokenization, both of which we've already mentioned, 86% of respondents already used or interested in using stablecoins.
- 17:54[SPEAKER_00]: That's a massive number and then 64% of asset managers specifically are interested in tokenizing their own assets.
- 18:02[SPEAKER_00]: And this is up from 40% just a year ago in 2025.
- 18:06[SPEAKER_00]: So you see a 24% increase from 40% in 2025 to 64% of asset managers that are now interested in tokenizing their own assets in 2024.
- 18:17[SPEAKER_00]: Uh, on both of those ends, huge infrastructure build out, and you see stable coin supplies hitting all time highs, their activities, hitting record highs.
- 18:29[SPEAKER_00]: It's not just at the area.
- 18:30[SPEAKER_00]: You're seeing it on Solana.
- 18:31[SPEAKER_00]: You're seeing it everywhere.
- 18:32[SPEAKER_00]: There's a clear desire for this.
- 18:35[SPEAKER_00]: What is the big interest point for a lot of these groups to use this?
- 18:41[SPEAKER_00]: What is the why behind them being so interested right now?
- 18:46[SPEAKER_01]: So I think a lot of the interest is coming from banks, IEV, NTs I used to work for.
- 18:51[SPEAKER_01]: And some of it, I'll be honest, it's fun, because they don't want to be left behind.
- 18:56[SPEAKER_01]: And so they realize that they need to try to be part of the 21st century economy, which will involve blockchain and tokens.
- 19:06[SPEAKER_01]: But I think tokenization, for example, it's really about upgrading the market plumbing.
- 19:10[SPEAKER_01]: So it's taking things like money, market funds, treasuries, credit, and giving them 24-7 programable settlement because they know that these rails work better than what exists today.
- 19:22[SPEAKER_01]: And I mean, this really kinda gets into like, maybe some pretty pedantic things.
- 19:27[SPEAKER_01]: I'm not gonna say they're like super exciting things by the way, like for people who don't work in this industry, you know, we're talking about stuff like, oh man, the loan of value ratios are currently around 50%.
- 19:38[SPEAKER_01]: because we're only able to settle at T-plus 1, T-plus 2.
- 19:42[SPEAKER_01]: It takes like a whole day I need to like turn this stuff over.
- 19:45[SPEAKER_01]: Now, if we're talking about instantaneous settlement, you can actually get loan-of-value ratios of 75%, 80%.
- 19:52[SPEAKER_01]: And you're doing it at like the scale of like just hitting a button and then just being done.
- 19:58[SPEAKER_01]: So you're not waiting 24 hours or 48 hours for this stuff to be settled anymore.
- 20:03[SPEAKER_01]: Which means that your turn rate is a lot higher.
- 20:06[SPEAKER_01]: So well all that what does that mean because it really comes down to efficiency and it's not a super interesting topic because I think like, you know, when I jumped into the space, I was like, oh, I want to talk about the meaning stuff, you know, I want to talk about like, we're doing all it's like proof is going to take us or what is like,
- 20:22[SPEAKER_01]: Homemorphic encryption going to look like all this kind of stuff, but it really does come down for a lot of these institutions to like that small micro stuff of like Oh, this means that the collateral that people hold It can actually be 80% of that like gets turned at a much faster rate
- 20:37[SPEAKER_01]: The efficiency game that you actually have for this stuff is like two to three times what it currently is.
- 20:43[SPEAKER_01]: So they know that this is kind of where it's going and this is why you see headlines like NASDAQ and NYC going like we want to go to 247 all this stuff is going to be like tokenized and it's all going to be settled with stable coins because this is what they need in order to just stay up to date with where all chain finance is going.
- 21:02[SPEAKER_00]: And you already started to see the transition of that.
- 21:05[SPEAKER_00]: I know HyperLickwood partnering with the SMP to create a 247 perpetual contract for the SMP 500.
- 21:15[SPEAKER_00]: That's huge because I've tried to explain this other people.
- 21:20[SPEAKER_00]: If you don't understand the point of tokenization in stablecoins, I think what it does is it allows people to have access and liquidity at any point in time.
- 21:30[SPEAKER_00]: And know with certainty that they can get in and out of these positions.
- 21:34[SPEAKER_00]: That's the huge benefit of blockchain tech.
- 21:37[SPEAKER_00]: is that there's no downtime, there's no maintenance, there's no this and that, it's 24-7, it's immutable, it's decentralized, it's security is, is fantastic, and people can go and they can know, hey, if it's the weekend, I no longer have to go and buy and sell Bitcoin, or get long and short Bitcoin because of geopolitical or macroeconomic events.
- 21:59[SPEAKER_00]: You can now go and trade something like this, and I think the whole market is moving more towards that.
- 22:04[SPEAKER_00]: It makes no sense that with the technology that we have today that you can't send anything anywhere in the world, no matter how much it costs, no matter which country it is, it makes no sense that it should take more than a few seconds and cost you more than a few cents.
- 22:18[SPEAKER_00]: So that's what we're working towards.
- 22:19[SPEAKER_00]: And I think that if you're enabling both people and institutions to do that,
- 22:24[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, try to put a price tag on that, right?
- 22:26[SPEAKER_00]: I always see different price tags and what people say the total adjustable market is for something like that.
- 22:30[SPEAKER_00]: And then gleaning into the tokenization side, it's try to put a price tag on being able to tokenize and fractionalize and secure.
- 22:40[SPEAKER_00]: anything via technology, and then you're giving it increased liquidity, increased market exposure, expanding the addressable market, removing the barrier to entries, and that's what this is about.
- 22:50[SPEAKER_00]: And so that's why I always see people throw these crazy predictions at it, saying it's going to unlock this multi-trillion dollar industry and opportunity, and you know, sometimes they undershoot, sometimes we overshoot, but I think it's right in saying that when you try
- 23:10[SPEAKER_00]: you know, trillions of dollars in opportunity from something like that.
- 23:15[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I completely agree.
- 23:17[SPEAKER_01]: I think that for a lot of the institutional investors we speak to, you know, like, there's a reason why right now they're using ETFs.
- 23:25[SPEAKER_01]: For example, like I think the survey we said, you've already cited it.
- 23:28[SPEAKER_01]: 81% prefer these registered vehicles.
- 23:31[SPEAKER_01]: And it's not because, you know, these are the products that they're happy to use.
- 23:37[SPEAKER_01]: You know, they use them because they're regulated rappers.
- 23:40[SPEAKER_01]: They have clear compliance obligations.
- 23:42[SPEAKER_01]: They want to meet them.
- 23:44[SPEAKER_01]: But there's a problem because you can't trade them on the weekends.
- 23:48[SPEAKER_01]: You can't trade them when the mark closes after 430.
- 23:52[SPEAKER_01]: So, you know, it creates a lot of inefficiencies.
- 23:56[SPEAKER_01]: for these institutional investors.
- 23:58[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, it's true across the board, it's true for me and you as well.
- 24:01[SPEAKER_01]: But for many of the institutions that want to scale participation, that really want to actually play with more money, like hedging themselves, because they can't trade the S&P, so they're doing it through Bitcoin.
- 24:19[SPEAKER_01]: highly inefficient for them.
- 24:20[SPEAKER_01]: They just don't want to do that.
- 24:22[SPEAKER_01]: So I think that everyone's kind of looking for that opportunity of like, well, how do we make this pivot?
- 24:27[SPEAKER_01]: And I'm not saying it's going to be easy.
- 24:28[SPEAKER_01]: I think that it's going to be stressful for a lot of market players.
- 24:32[SPEAKER_01]: That's where things like AI agents probably come in, you know, they're probably going to be there to absorb the flow.
- 24:38[SPEAKER_01]: But I think that right now, like there are
- 24:41[SPEAKER_01]: A lot of institutions that are dealing with, well, crap, you know, we want, do we sell on a Friday because we can't keep that position over the weekend, like, that's not ideal for them.
- 24:52[SPEAKER_01]: I think that soon we're going to be seeing all that stuff change.
- 24:55[SPEAKER_01]: And I think we're, let's say we're prepared for that, by the way.
- 24:57[SPEAKER_01]: I think that traffic is still very ill-equipped to kind of meet that new world.
- 25:02[SPEAKER_01]: But whether they weren't in a knot, that's what we're going.
- 25:05[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, we are certainly heading in that direction.
- 25:10[SPEAKER_00]: And I'm curious, what else beyond all of this stands out?
- 25:13[SPEAKER_00]: Did we miss anything that might be important or going on or took part in the survey?
- 25:17[SPEAKER_00]: Did we miss anything in relations to that?
- 25:21[SPEAKER_01]: I think we caught most of the stuff in the survey.
- 25:23[SPEAKER_01]: And thanks for that, by the way.
- 25:24[SPEAKER_01]: I think that there's a lot of, like, loves juice and the discussion.
- 25:29[SPEAKER_01]: But so much of it is focused on tokenization and stablecoins, because that's where institutions right now are concentrated.
- 25:35[SPEAKER_01]: It was funny.
- 25:36[SPEAKER_01]: I was at a real world assets conference just a few weeks ago.
- 25:40[SPEAKER_01]: And you're probably familiar with this, but like a lot of conference participation is gone down because markets have been doing as well in crypto.
- 25:48[SPEAKER_01]: But if you're going to those real-world asset, kind of conferences, participation is going up, like more people are going to these, attendance is up, crazy.
- 25:57[SPEAKER_01]: Because they're, you know, they're institutions that really want to learn this stuff.
- 26:01[SPEAKER_01]: But I'd say that like within the crypto space, there's a lot of themes that people should be paying attention to.
- 26:07[SPEAKER_01]: And yes, you know, some of that is prediction market, some of that's perps by I think AI agents are also a huge one, you know, on chain we're investing in base and the tools that develop presented prizes build applications around like agentic AI payments rule assets like that I think is going to be a massive theme over the next few years.
- 26:28[SPEAKER_00]: Well, let's talk more about that, because what fascinated me here recently was that Jensen Huang, you know, from Nvidia, was just talking about AI agents.
- 26:38[SPEAKER_00]: And obviously AI in general has been a huge talking point.
- 26:41[SPEAKER_00]: That's nothing new, but Jensen was just talking about BitTensor, you know, Tao, as some people like to call it, on stage with Chumoth.
- 26:51[SPEAKER_00]: And there we go, and back and forth, and they're talking about how strong and impressive some of the things that it's been able to achieve recently.
- 26:57[SPEAKER_00]: and some of the subnets within it have been able to do, and I think that's a huge leap because it's being talked about on the main stage, and a Gentic AI has had this
- 27:13[SPEAKER_00]: moon-like leap, right, this moon step, where it has seen a gigantic jump in what it's been able to do in its capabilities.
- 27:23[SPEAKER_00]: And now everyone's looking at how we're going to use agents moving forward.
- 27:27[SPEAKER_00]: Is it going to be for
- 27:28[SPEAKER_00]: You know, vacation planning, is it going to be for personal management?
- 27:32[SPEAKER_00]: Is it going to be for like all these little aspects of our life where you're just going to be able to sign?
- 27:37[SPEAKER_00]: You know, I see people creating businesses with AI now.
- 27:39[SPEAKER_00]: They say, hey, you know, I'm going to have 10 different agents.
- 27:41[SPEAKER_00]: I'm going to have two for marketing, one for website building, you know, one for, you know, emails.
- 27:48[SPEAKER_00]: And this and that and they sign them all these different.
- 27:50[SPEAKER_00]: positions and there's a million ways that you can go with it.
- 27:54[SPEAKER_00]: Talk to me about what you're seeing from the AI and the agent side because I think there's a lot to unpack there.
- 28:01[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I thought it was super interesting what Jensen said at the GDC conference, and hopefully people saw the highlights from that, but that took place last week, because it was March 16 and 19, and obviously he hit on a couple of points with respect to infront, reasoning, those things as well, but agents was a very big theme at that conference.
- 28:24[SPEAKER_01]: And I think the big
- 28:30[SPEAKER_01]: But the real story for crypto, anyway, is that crypto is acting as a financial plumbing for all these new AI agents.
- 28:37[SPEAKER_01]: So AI agents, you know, probably people are familiar already, but there's like these little software bots that people like use and they need stuff, right?
- 28:47[SPEAKER_01]: Because agents themselves have an economy.
- 28:49[SPEAKER_01]: They need to buy services, they need to pay for data.
- 28:52[SPEAKER_01]: They may need to hire other robots to do other stuff.
- 28:55[SPEAKER_01]: But, you know, they obviously can't just use a bank or credit card because they're an AI agent.
- 29:01[SPEAKER_01]: And, you know, crypto is really building the digital wall, it's the instant payment rail to let them operate autonomously.
- 29:08[SPEAKER_01]: So, I think that what we're going to see is, you know, I call it the last mile problem for AI because,
- 29:14[SPEAKER_01]: And an AI agent can go in, they can design a new app, but it can't independently pay for cloud space, right?
- 29:23[SPEAKER_01]: You can't, you know, have a specialized sub-agent, unless your AI come in and say, like, you, you do it.
- 29:31[SPEAKER_01]: Like, AI agent, like, it's fine.
- 29:32[SPEAKER_01]: But crypto, I think, would really step in there to solve that mismatch.
- 29:36[SPEAKER_01]: It gives the software the ability to kind of hold the money, to make payments, to settle contracts, and continuously.
- 29:43[SPEAKER_01]: And I think once you start seeing that, that then turns AI into a fully functional economic participant, which is why I think you're seeing headlines like Meta by Moldbook and things like that because we kind of know where this is going, you know, we look at these investment value pools and there are all these kind of like layers to them.
- 30:04[SPEAKER_01]: But where do the foundational rails that AI agents are actually going to use?
- 30:09[SPEAKER_01]: So for me, I think that that's probably where the biggest opportunity is, like, as a market participant, like, I think that, you know, there's going to be a lot of infrastructure, and a lot of that is going to be built via crypto.
- 30:21[SPEAKER_00]: You know, it almost feels like we're living in a movie sometime.
- 30:25[SPEAKER_00]: This is like kind of stuff that you'd see in a sci-fi movie growing up and I'm not even that old, you know, you're not that old, but like even like I think anyone Probably over the age of 20 could say hey, when you were growing up you were probably saw these AI agent like things and movies and TV shows and we're getting so close to that being a reality and just even some of the chat bots, which are probably like the most basic forms of AI like even watching those grow
- 30:54[SPEAKER_00]: super interesting and so I think crypto has this unique opportunity because of its underlying technology because of blockchain that it can do different kinds of things and I think take a new perspective on a lot of this.
- 31:07[SPEAKER_00]: Getting back into the research side.
- 31:10[SPEAKER_00]: What other kind of investment research do you do on like a weekly or a monthly basis?
- 31:18[SPEAKER_00]: We talked a lot about this report and what institutions are looking at.
- 31:22[SPEAKER_00]: Beyond that side, I guess what else is going on?
- 31:26[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
- 31:26[SPEAKER_01]: So I put out a weekly newsletter.
- 31:29[SPEAKER_01]: I put out a monthly outlook.
- 31:30[SPEAKER_01]: I put out ad hoc reports.
- 31:32[SPEAKER_01]: I even go into like technicalism positioning for investors.
- 31:36[SPEAKER_01]: And, you know, this is all on the Coinbase Institutional Research website.
- 31:41[SPEAKER_01]: I also send it out to like Coinbase One subscribers.
- 31:43[SPEAKER_01]: So if you're in the US and your Coinbase One subscriber, you should be getting these emails.
- 31:47[SPEAKER_01]: But really, I'm trying to focus on like, well, what's driving the crypto market themselves?
- 31:52[SPEAKER_01]: Like, you know, like, are we just inside a cycle right now?
- 31:56[SPEAKER_01]: And this is just part of the course.
- 31:58[SPEAKER_01]: Or is this macro driven?
- 31:59[SPEAKER_01]: Are there crypto themes that we think are relevant to kind of pay attention to?
- 32:03[SPEAKER_01]: And that's where things like AI agents kind of fits in.
- 32:06[SPEAKER_01]: For example, I mean, more recently, I think that it's very uncomfortable.
- 32:11[SPEAKER_01]: Some people believe that this just looks like a very normal part of the cycle because
- 32:16[SPEAKER_01]: feels very noisy, but the long-term story hasn't changed.
- 32:20[SPEAKER_01]: And I would agree with that some extent, but we're very head-line driven at the moment.
- 32:24[SPEAKER_01]: A lot of this has to do with what's going on with macro is President Trump going to announce a ground invasion in Iraq, for example, are there going to be more oil shocks?
- 32:37[SPEAKER_01]: Is the Fed going to change their entry to expectations?
- 32:40[SPEAKER_01]: We just saw a Chairman Powell on the Fed
- 32:46[SPEAKER_01]: You know, I think that crypto can't be isolated from all of that.
- 32:51[SPEAKER_01]: I think it's still relevant.
- 32:53[SPEAKER_01]: Now, some of that has been kind of front and front to some extent.
- 32:56[SPEAKER_01]: Like we saw all do the event of 10-10.
- 32:58[SPEAKER_01]: Market structure kind of broke down for crypto.
- 33:00[SPEAKER_01]: But right now, because so many people who wanted to sell crypto have already sold, we are looking like a much more resilient asset class right now.
- 33:08[SPEAKER_01]: Then equities are fixed income or precious metals even.
- 33:12[SPEAKER_01]: So, I think that this is kind of how I think about it.
- 33:15[SPEAKER_01]: How do we think about crypto and a broader portfolio?
- 33:18[SPEAKER_01]: I don't think that it just kind of operates like an uncorrelated to other assets anymore.
- 33:25[SPEAKER_01]: But of course, it oscillates a lot.
- 33:28[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
- 33:28[SPEAKER_01]: So are we just a liquidity device or is it something more?
- 33:33[SPEAKER_01]: Is there something that's going on on the surface?
- 33:35[SPEAKER_01]: Like we're talking about, you know, ethereum activity, for example, it's a huge one that I don't think a ton of people are paying attention to right now.
- 33:43[SPEAKER_01]: But I think that it's sometimes, you know, overlooked because we're kind of trading alongside, you know, the rest of the macro regime.
- 33:52[SPEAKER_00]: It would seem like crypto goes through these periods where it's more correlated sometimes and then it's less correlated others.
- 34:00[SPEAKER_00]: I think during really big and significant events, you tend to see all risk on assets get tied together, kind of like what we're seeing a little bit right now.
- 34:09[SPEAKER_00]: I think that makes sense, but that's how it's always been, right?
- 34:12[SPEAKER_00]: We were recently asked a question about this saying, hey guys, why is Bitcoin so correlated to NASDAQ's price action recently?
- 34:20[SPEAKER_00]: And it's well, because when there's significant events like this, you tend to see people move, they move together, regardless of the asset class, right?
- 34:29[SPEAKER_00]: You know, whether it's, you know, small capabilities, large capabilities, Bitcoin, whatever it is.
- 34:34[SPEAKER_00]: You know, if something is more risk on more like an investment vehicle than in scary times, people want to conserve cash and money goes away from those.
- 34:42[SPEAKER_00]: And times where things are, you know, a little bit more safe, and people are a little bit more comfortable, then money can flow into those a little bit easier.
- 34:50[SPEAKER_00]: And I think that's what we're seeing right now and we go through waves of this just like the markets go up and down in waves too, you know, this is nothing new in that no matter where you are guys at future points in time, guess what you know, there's probably going to be worse price action than this the markets go up they go down it's normal sometimes it's more volatile sometimes it's less volatile but these kind of things happen and you know, we had a really good run especially for Bitcoin.
- 35:16[SPEAKER_00]: And I think where people maybe get the most frustrated is with some of these alt's, but what they fail to understand is that we've gone from having in prior cycles a couple of thousand alt coins, maybe tens of thousands of alt coins, now you go into coin market cap and there's over 40 million that are just listed on coin market cap alone, as like, and I'm sure if you count all the mean coins and stuff on Solana that there's probably way more than that, but there's been huge influx in the number of alt coins.
- 35:45[SPEAKER_00]: and I think to some degree that has saturated or maybe fractionalized liquidity from away from probably some good projects that could have taken it.
- 35:57[SPEAKER_01]: So, yeah, I think that things are starting to refocus on just a handful of alt's.
- 36:05[SPEAKER_01]: I do think that, you know, you need to see Bitcoin recover as a pre-condition for a lot of those alt's to kind of come back.
- 36:12[SPEAKER_01]: But that's not the uniform story across the board.
- 36:15[SPEAKER_01]: I put liquid stands out, for example, or bit tensor because of the AI theme or other things.
- 36:21[SPEAKER_01]: But, you know, like, there's no accident that, you know, there's a survey run by back from America among global fund managers and the cash levels, as you've kind of noted, they went up from 3.4% if everybody up to 4.3% in March.
- 36:37[SPEAKER_01]: And that was like in a matter of like two weeks between like when they did that survey.
- 36:41[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, it doesn't sound like a lot, but a one percentage point in jump in two weeks is massive.
- 36:47[SPEAKER_01]: And we know why, right?
- 36:48[SPEAKER_01]: It's because of the, you know, the conflict in Iran, it's because oil prices are going higher.
- 36:53[SPEAKER_01]: But I think,
- 36:55[SPEAKER_01]: There's one thing to look at the correlation between Bitcoin and stocks.
- 36:59[SPEAKER_01]: But it's another to look at the risk adjusted performance of Bitcoin and stocks.
- 37:04[SPEAKER_01]: And, you know, if you're looking at the risk adjusted performance by which I mean that you look at the current level relative to the average price of the last three months, for example, and then measured across exam deviations.
- 37:16[SPEAKER_01]: We're like a three to four sandy variation move lower in equities, whereas Bitcoin through all of this has been like barely one.
- 37:26[SPEAKER_01]: And why is that?
- 37:27[SPEAKER_01]: Well, it's because we had our own kind of like four sandy variation move like a few months ago.
- 37:31[SPEAKER_01]: And a lot of people were like, oh, did we front and run the move?
- 37:34[SPEAKER_01]: Well, how could we?
- 37:35[SPEAKER_01]: We didn't know that there was going to be this conflict that was going to occur.
- 37:39[SPEAKER_01]: But it just, there were a lot of four sellers in there.
- 37:41[SPEAKER_01]: And I think we're still trying to unpack what happened.
- 37:45[SPEAKER_01]: during those events because there are a lot of market makers sure there's all a D leveraging but also within the Bitcoin community there is a lot of discussions around the V30 versus BIP 110 there was concerns around a potential soft fork for example so those things might have fed into the price action maybe that hit OGs as well but this is the kind of stuff that you know you're trying to parse when you look in these markets because everyone kind of look at and be like this is choppy price action but
- 38:13[SPEAKER_01]: is it actually systemic stress or is it something that we're going to recover from?
- 38:16[SPEAKER_01]: And I think that's going to be the big question in the months to come.
- 38:19[SPEAKER_00]: That seems to be the big question and I've seen people phrase it two different ways.
- 38:24[SPEAKER_00]: And they ask the question and I'll ask this to you of what seems to be our path towards a resolution.
- 38:32[SPEAKER_00]: What seems to be our path back to success and reversal and all that good stuff?
- 38:37[SPEAKER_00]: Is it catalyst driven or is it just time driven?
- 38:40[SPEAKER_00]: Meaning that
- 38:42[SPEAKER_00]: It's just going to take some time, you know, I think the time driven people like to point towards the cycles, the four of your cycles and they'll say, well, it's just going to be a matter of time until we get out, where is the catalyst people are saying, no, there is specific things that can happen that will trigger this.
- 38:57[SPEAKER_00]: Where would you say you stand on like how cryptos turn around could happen.
- 39:04[SPEAKER_01]: It's not going to be a satisfying answer, but it's probably going to be a little bit of both.
- 39:08[SPEAKER_01]: I don't think that we really operate in cycles anymore.
- 39:11[SPEAKER_01]: I discourage people from saying, this is all about four of your cycles.
- 39:17[SPEAKER_01]: how can it be?
- 39:18[SPEAKER_01]: We've only, by the way, had only a handful of these, I think it's like three or four of the depending on how you count it, depending on whether you're attributed to the Bitcoin having or other things.
- 39:29[SPEAKER_01]: Any statistics expert will tell you, like that's not enough data.
- 39:35[SPEAKER_01]: It's not enough data, but you know, it's still very seductive from a psychological perspective.
- 39:42[SPEAKER_01]: I get it, it's happened numerous times before, but the demand side of the equation it looks very different, but we had in 2022 and 2017 and like,
- 39:53[SPEAKER_01]: going back because we have the ETFs now.
- 39:56[SPEAKER_01]: We have that.
- 39:57[SPEAKER_01]: We have all these other things.
- 39:59[SPEAKER_01]: So I do think that for the space, it's still going to be very utility driven.
- 40:04[SPEAKER_01]: I think that's going to be the catalyst as people pivot towards organization and stablecoins.
- 40:10[SPEAKER_01]: Or are you going to see them say, well, maybe like a E or whatever L1 needs to kind of pick up because we're using those rails and those rails have value.
- 40:20[SPEAKER_01]: That block space has value.
- 40:22[SPEAKER_01]: Or it's Bitcoin becoming more valuable because it's narrative is going to pivot as more people use it as a store of value and sovereign kind of holdings, you know, like it took a long time for gold even to kind of get to this point and I think people realize that like gold once upon a time was not
- 40:40[SPEAKER_01]: considered a Tier 1 asset under Basel rules under Basel 3.
- 40:45[SPEAKER_01]: It only became a Tier 1 asset.
- 40:46[SPEAKER_01]: I think back in 2019, the US only recognized it in 2025.
- 40:52[SPEAKER_01]: So if you're a sovereignty, a central bank, or whoever, you had gold in your portfolio, you couldn't recognize gold at the full value today you can.
- 41:01[SPEAKER_01]: Um, and I think we're going to see those intermediary steps for Bitcoin as well.
- 41:06[SPEAKER_01]: So I think that that's a stuff I'm thinking about when I say it's going to be time driven.
- 41:10[SPEAKER_01]: Like, I think increasingly people are going to say, okay, hold on and take this actually, is a very valuable asset that we want to have inside our portfolios and recognize it as a sovereign asset that can be utilized in balance of payments.
- 41:23[SPEAKER_01]: But we're not fair yet.
- 41:24[SPEAKER_01]: I think it's going to take time for many entities to accept that, but we're getting there incrementally.
- 41:31[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, and what's been so interesting is that from from our side, we get almost the same answer to that question no matter how many times we we ask it whenever we ask it to anyone that's more institutional they give us the same answer of saying it's
- 41:48[SPEAKER_00]: probably not having related.
- 41:50[SPEAKER_00]: The whole four-year cycle having theory, it's just there's not a lot of data and they're not huge fans of it.
- 41:56[SPEAKER_00]: They're not like, oh, this is the silliest thing ever, but they would side more towards catalysts.
- 42:01[SPEAKER_00]: And whenever we ask the retail side, we've a really big community over here that is mainly retail and they are very hardcore about the idea of the four-year cycle.
- 42:12[SPEAKER_00]: And so we'll bring this up on our little private calls that we have and people not everyone, you know, some people get frustrated when we say, you know, from the conversations we have, nobody's really talking about the four-year cycle.
- 42:27[SPEAKER_00]: So it's interesting and I'm not sure why that is, but there seems to be a big disconnect in between institutions leaning away from the four-year
- 42:40[SPEAKER_00]: Maybe you have an answer, but I haven't really been able to come up with a good one yet.
- 42:44[SPEAKER_00]: So we constantly have like a little back and forth with different members in our community.
- 42:48[SPEAKER_00]: And I see where they're coming from and there's certainly some data to point over there.
- 42:51[SPEAKER_00]: But I think there's a lot of data that kind of points us away from the idea of a four-year cycle.
- 42:55[SPEAKER_00]: And again, if you're anyone that is data-driven or if you have a background in data and analytics, you would know that three to four sets is like an incredibly underwhelming amount of data to be able to say that anything is consistent in any kind of trend.
- 43:10[SPEAKER_01]: Oh, yeah.
- 43:11[SPEAKER_01]: Now, my sister's professor in college would have like, you know, like died in his hands.
- 43:17[SPEAKER_01]: Like turned over and it's often if you heard that we're just using three data points if you're many things.
- 43:21[SPEAKER_01]: I think it was like a minimum of 40 for him.
- 43:23[SPEAKER_01]: And it was like drilled into my head of like every time.
- 43:26[SPEAKER_01]: Like it needs to be that.
- 43:28[SPEAKER_01]: But, yeah, this is life.
- 43:29[SPEAKER_01]: This is real life and there's like, you know, like these cycles take a long time to kind of manifest and so it's it's hard whereas these psychological kind of influence of the stuff I think that that's more pressing and that's equally important by the way I don't discourage that like I think that you know like
- 43:44[SPEAKER_01]: You know, do we see things sell off every time like September comes along or like it's up tober thing.
- 43:51[SPEAKER_01]: Obviously up tober wasn't a thing last year, right?
- 43:54[SPEAKER_01]: And we have more cadence on that.
- 43:57[SPEAKER_01]: But I would say that many people look at the four-year cycles from the lens of the Bitcoin having.
- 44:04[SPEAKER_01]: wrong per se because once upon a time the key non-discretionary stellar in the market were big-point miners.
- 44:11[SPEAKER_01]: They still are some extent, but they also get liquidity from, you know, like lenders who once upon a time didn't exist in this space.
- 44:21[SPEAKER_01]: Now, like you have like some from very large institutions who are willing to kind of offer those loans.
- 44:25[SPEAKER_01]: They are able to kind of diversify themselves by using AI or they have energy-sharing agreements.
- 44:33[SPEAKER_01]: So, I mean, it's a different world even from the supply side of the equation.
- 44:38[SPEAKER_01]: Much less of demand side.
- 44:40[SPEAKER_01]: Like I said, institutions are on this base.
- 44:43[SPEAKER_01]: As ETFs are in this base, people can access this next to their brokerage account now.
- 44:48[SPEAKER_01]: So, I think that's why, for me, the four-year cycle isn't quite as strong.
- 44:53[SPEAKER_01]: But also, if you kind of like pinpoint when those Bitcoin havings occurred as well, I mean, they didn't happen immediately, you know, like the price performance started to kind of go up, but was a three months after, was a six months after, was a nine months, it's actually pretty variable when we did the study of it.
- 45:11[SPEAKER_01]: And really, unless you're telling me that like, like clockwork every three months after the Bitcoin having, like things are gonna go up, like how do I price that?
- 45:20[SPEAKER_01]: You know, as an assumption, I can't,
- 45:23[SPEAKER_01]: So it doesn't help me all that much.
- 45:25[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, no.
- 45:26[SPEAKER_00]: It's a good point.
- 45:28[SPEAKER_00]: It really is.
- 45:28[SPEAKER_00]: And there's so much that goes into all of this, but I think, you know, ultimately, we're going to find out here.
- 45:33[SPEAKER_00]: We're going to get more answers for the listeners out there who want to follow what you're doing.
- 45:38[SPEAKER_00]: They want to see some more of these reports, where can they follow and get involved?
- 45:43[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, you can follow me on Twitter at David Duwang, so it's just my first name last name.
- 45:48[SPEAKER_01]: I also have it on the Institutional Research website.
- 45:52[SPEAKER_01]: So the best thing to do is just type it into your preferred search thing and type in Coinbase institutional research.
- 45:59[SPEAKER_01]: Should pop up.
- 46:01[SPEAKER_01]: You might get it a week late because it goes to our institutional clients and I'm going to make some unsubscribers first.
- 46:08[SPEAKER_01]: So if you want to get it on time, then please sign up for Coinbase
- 46:12[SPEAKER_00]: absolutely well David we appreciate your time killer conversation we appreciate all of your insight we appreciate what you do for the industry because it's hard work and the industry needs this and we love talking to people like yourself and I know that all the listeners out there do as well so David once again thank you for joining us this was Coinbase's Global Head of Research and we appreciate your time this was great thank you so much