Latest / Predictable with Stu Burguiere / GIANT Value to be Found in Tomorrow’s Primary Elections!

Transcript

GIANT Value to be Found in Tomorrow’s Primary Elections! · Predictable with Stu Burguiere

• 0:00
  Welcome
• 0:01
  to Predictable with Stu.
• 0:02
  A lot coming up this week.
• 0:03
  We've got primaries all over the place,
• 0:05
  Wisconsin,
• 0:05
  South Carolina,
• 0:06
  Minnesota,
• 0:06
  Vermont,
• 0:07
  Connecticut,
• 0:07
  some Alabama stuff too.
• 0:09
  Tomorrow is one of the biggest primary days of the year.
• 0:12
  I wanna prep you for that today.
• 0:14
  We'll go into some other stuff on,
• 0:15
  uh,
• 0:17
  It kind of is an interesting thing going on in the world of
• 0:19
  corporate earnings calls and how that factors into the prediction market escape,
• 0:24
  which is,
• 0:24
  I don't know,
• 0:25
  it's a fascinating thing to follow.
• 0:26
  Uh,
• 0:26
  and also I want to tell,
• 0:27
  tell you about my picks,
• 0:29
  how you can get my picks,
• 0:30
  uh,
• 0:30
  and hopefully that that will benefit you.
• 0:32
  Because we believe with 85 days
• 0:34
  until the midterm elections,
• 0:36
  we believe
• 0:37
  you should be paid
• 0:38
  for your pain.
• 0:39
  And that's what we attempt to do here at Predictable is we try
• 0:43
  to make an unpredictable world
• 0:44
  a little bit more
• 0:45
  predictable.
• 0:46
  Let's get to it.
• 1:02
  Last week on this very program,
• 1:03
  we hit a 2,000+%
• 1:06
  market position
• 1:08
  on
• 1:08
  Haley Stevens,
• 1:09
  who didn't even wind up winning.
• 1:11
  Because that's what we do here.
• 1:12
  That's what we do here,
• 1:13
  or at least that's what we attempt to do here.
• 1:15
  And we've done very successfully so far.
• 1:17
  We'll go through some of that here
• 1:18
  in a little bit.
• 1:18
  If you'd like to join the party,
• 1:20
  go to predictableshow.com.
• 1:21
  There,
• 1:21
  you can just put your email address in for free,
• 1:23
  get lots of this information,
• 1:25
  all the breakdowns of the shows,
• 1:26
  you get the videos,
• 1:27
  you get a lot of the live streams,
• 1:28
  you get a lot of the stuff that we're talking about,
• 1:30
  uh,
• 1:30
  a chat
• 1:31
  and all that stuff,
• 1:32
  uh,
• 1:32
  that I'm,
• 1:32
  I'm on a lot.
• 1:33
  I'm,
• 1:34
  you know,
• 1:34
  chatting with the audience a decent amount,
• 1:35
  plus there's a great community there.
• 1:37
  Um,
• 1:37
  if you are someone who trades on these markets,
• 1:40
  probably want to at least consider a predictableShow.com premium
• 1:44
  membership.
• 1:44
  If you do that,
• 1:45
  you get all of my picks.
• 1:46
  It's,
• 1:47
  uh,
• 1:47
  we had over 200 of them we released,
• 1:49
  uh,
• 1:50
  just this past week.
• 1:51
  They're available for you all the time.
• 1:52
  And whenever I have new stuff like on the election,
• 1:55
  you'll see it first
• 1:56
  at predictableshow.com.
• 1:59
  OK,
• 1:59
  so join us there.
• 2:00
  We'd appreciate it.
• 2:01
  Coming up tomorrow on the election.
• 2:03
  Landscape,
• 2:04
  one of the biggest days of the year when it comes to primaries.
• 2:07
  Connecticut,
• 2:07
  Minnesota,
• 2:08
  Vermont,
• 2:09
  Wisconsin,
• 2:10
  South Carolina,
• 2:11
  and we don't have it listed there,
• 2:12
  but also Alabama
• 2:13
  would fall into that category.
• 2:15
  They,
• 2:16
  because of the redistricting,
• 2:17
  they have,
• 2:17
  I think,
• 2:18
  4 races.
• 2:18
  I think the 1st,
• 2:19
  2nd,
• 2:19
  6th,
• 2:20
  and 7th districts
• 2:21
  are going to be going on and that,
• 2:23
  uh,
• 2:23
  is going to be in the middle of this as well.
• 2:26
  There's tons and tons of races.
• 2:27
  Obviously,
• 2:27
  we can't go through every single race.
• 2:29
  There's dozens of them.
• 2:30
  Uh,
• 2:31
  tomorrow.
• 2:31
  We will start covering that stuff more and more as we go into today
• 2:34
  and into tomorrow to try to get you into the minor stuff.
• 2:36
  But I wanna go through some of the big ones because there are some big ones,
• 2:39
  uh,
• 2:39
  tomorrow.
• 2:39
  Some of these nights,
• 2:41
  maybe the races aren't as sexy,
• 2:43
  maybe they're not as big of a deal,
• 2:45
  maybe they're a little more calm
• 2:47
  and cool and collected,
• 2:48
  uh,
• 2:49
  but,
• 2:49
  uh,
• 2:50
  you know,
• 2:51
  this one is a big one,
• 2:52
  frankly.
• 2:53
  And we're gonna start
• 2:55
  with Hong.
• 2:57
  Yes,
• 2:57
  Will
• 2:58
  Hong
• 2:59
  be the latest Democratic socialist to win
• 3:03
  a Midwest state?
• 3:05
  It comes from the Milwaukee,
• 3:06
  uh,
• 3:06
  Journal Sentinel.
• 3:08
  If you don't know who Hong is,
• 3:10
  it's Francesca Hong,
• 3:12
  and she is a candidate for the Democratic,
• 3:16
  uh,
• 3:17
  candidacy or the nomination for the gubernatorial,
• 3:19
  uh,
• 3:19
  position
• 3:20
  in Wisconsin.
• 3:22
  It has been a really
• 3:24
  weird
• 3:25
  race,
• 3:25
  and frankly,
• 3:26
  she is.
• 3:27
  A strange candidate.
• 3:28
  I,
• 3:28
  I gotta be honest with you.
• 3:29
  This is not me like I do believe that socialism is horrible for our country,
• 3:33
  and that's.
• 3:34
  That is a belief that I strongly hold.
• 3:37
  Uh,
• 3:37
  but that's kind of a sidebar for you,
• 3:38
  uh,
• 3:38
  from this particular race because
• 3:40
  if I think I can make money off of a socialist winning in these races,
• 3:43
  it's something that I'm going to do,
• 3:45
  uh,
• 3:45
  because I can't control the world.
• 3:47
  I can't control the outcomes for all these elections.
• 3:49
  I've come to terms with that.
• 3:50
  That's not my role in the,
• 3:51
  in the society.
• 3:52
  What I can hopefully help you do is
• 3:54
  pay for a nice dinner
• 3:55
  out with your spouse,
• 3:56
  uh,
• 3:57
  off of these elections.
• 3:59
  Uh,
• 3:59
  and if people are gonna make bad decisions,
• 4:00
  well,
• 4:02
  What am I gonna do?
• 4:03
  Again,
• 4:03
  I like to be paid for my pain.
• 4:04
  Here is Hong.
• 4:05
  This is the sort of candidate she is.
• 4:07
  Let me give you a quick candidate profile,
• 4:08
  if you will.
• 4:09
  Uh,
• 4:10
  here is her,
• 4:10
  uh,
• 4:11
  Hong talking about her unfortunate and
• 4:13
  devastating
• 4:15
  proximity.
• 4:16
  To whiteness.
• 4:18
  I wasn't always aware of of the struggles
• 4:20
  of other communities of color because for me,
• 4:22
  assimilation always kind of took over.
• 4:24
  And so,
• 4:25
  um,
• 4:26
  I,
• 4:26
  I,
• 4:27
  I did marry,
• 4:27
  uh,
• 4:28
  um,
• 4:29
  my proximity to whiteness continues,
• 4:31
  right?
• 4:31
  I,
• 4:31
  I,
• 4:32
  my
• 4:32
  son is biracial.
• 4:34
  He's he's half white and half Korean and um I think navigating,
• 4:38
  um,
• 4:39
  you know,
• 4:39
  what his identity is and then how people perceive him is
• 4:42
  is always at the back of my mind as well.
• 4:45
  Now,
• 4:45
  you don't wanna have that proximity to whiteness,
• 4:47
  especially when it's your own son.
• 4:49
  That's just a devastating thing to discover,
• 4:51
  that your own son is half white.
• 4:52
  Look,
• 4:52
  it's a weird world.
• 4:53
  I'm not gonna go too deep into this,
• 4:55
  but I do wanna give you a little bit more.
• 4:56
  Here is Hong talking to,
• 4:59
  uh,
• 4:59
  Caitlin Collins
• 5:01
  about her particular opinion on,
• 5:03
  and it's a unique one,
• 5:05
  on Thanksgiving.
• 5:06
  Was a post from you in 2021,
• 5:09
  um,
• 5:10
  where you said Americans should cancel Thanksgiving,
• 5:13
  should have done this in 1621.
• 5:15
  Uh,
• 5:15
  the post has been deleted.
• 5:17
  Republicans have been highlighting it.
• 5:19
  Do you still believe that,
• 5:20
  uh,
• 5:21
  Thanksgiving should be canceled?
• 5:25
  I'm a chef
• 5:26
  and one of the first meals that I made,
• 5:28
  uh,
• 5:29
  that was,
• 5:30
  um,
• 5:30
  for the community,
• 5:32
  uh,
• 5:32
  when I was 16 was a Thanksgiving meal.
• 5:35
  You know,
• 5:35
  I always think
• 5:36
  my hospitality background and owning a restaurant for
• 5:39
  78 years that bringing folks around the table,
• 5:43
  uh,
• 5:43
  to share
• 5:44
  conversation and build community is always a good thing.
• 5:47
  But Thanksgiving is also a time that's incredibly painful for me.
• 5:51
  Many people in our communities.
• 5:52
  And so
• 5:53
  I think there I wanted to make sure
• 5:55
  that people understood that there are multiple views,
• 5:58
  but
• 5:59
  some views can evolve and
• 6:01
  the position that I'm running for right now,
• 6:03
  and I think my background as a chef
• 6:06
  will actually help me become a better governor that's able to bring more people
• 6:09
  to the table.
• 6:11
  It's
• 6:11
  a
• 6:12
  fascinating answer.
• 6:13
  I love this.
• 6:14
  Uh,
• 6:14
  she says that there are multiple views on Thanksgiving.
• 6:17
  Uh,
• 6:17
  but views can evolve.
• 6:19
  She's not saying her views have evolved.
• 6:21
  At no point in that answer does she say
• 6:23
  that her views have evolved and she really likes Thanksgiving now.
• 6:26
  She just says that they can theoretically evolve.
• 6:29
  So that's good to know.
• 6:30
  I hope you,
• 6:31
  uh,
• 6:31
  are excited about that.
• 6:33
  I love that too.
• 6:33
  It's like,
• 6:33
  uh,
• 6:34
  when someone asks you a really direct question where there's an obvious answer,
• 6:37
  you know,
• 6:37
  hey,
• 6:37
  did you,
• 6:38
  uh,
• 6:38
  did you cheat on your,
• 6:39
  on your wife?
• 6:41
  I'm a chef.
• 6:42
  That has,
• 6:43
  that's not an answer to that.
• 6:44
  The answer easily is no.
• 6:45
  And I bring that up,
• 6:46
  not because I,
• 6:46
  you know,
• 6:47
  look,
• 6:47
  do I think she's
• 6:49
  a bit insane?
• 6:50
  Sure.
• 6:51
  But that's not really even why I bring this up.
• 6:53
  I bring this up because
• 6:54
  when it comes to candidate quality,
• 6:56
  there's a really easy answer to,
• 6:58
  do you think Thanksgiving is the Holocaust?
• 7:00
  And the answer to that is no.
• 7:03
  Do you think Thanksgiving should be canceled?
• 7:05
  The answer,
• 7:05
  it's a really easy,
• 7:06
  it's two letters,
• 7:07
  no.
• 7:09
  That's the way you answer that question,
• 7:11
  even if you don't believe it
• 7:12
  as a candidate,
• 7:13
  but she's trying to win a Democratic primary.
• 7:15
  She wants to say there's lots of different views on Thanksgiving.
• 7:18
  Apparently,
• 7:19
  this is working out very,
• 7:19
  very well for her.
• 7:20
  Now,
• 7:20
  I will tell you this race is really,
• 7:22
  really strange.
• 7:24
  It's been a very strange race.
• 7:25
  There have been people who are much more well known than,
• 7:28
  uh,
• 7:28
  Hong
• 7:29
  in this race,
• 7:30
  uh,
• 7:30
  who have just kind of gone to the sideline and,
• 7:32
  and,
• 7:32
  and dropped out of the race,
• 7:33
  including Mandela Barnes.
• 7:34
  I wanna show you this polling from The New York Times.
• 7:36
  Uh,
• 7:36
  if you look from the bottom of this,
• 7:38
  this is the farthest away or timeline wise,
• 7:40
  you see Hong plus 20,
• 7:41
  Hong plus 29,
• 7:43
  Hong plus 25,
• 7:45
  and,
• 7:46
  you know,
• 7:46
  here she is,
• 7:46
  she's leading the race 46 to 21.
• 7:49
  The person in second place is Mandela Barnes,
• 7:51
  who's dropped out.
• 7:53
  So she has what seemingly should be a really clear path,
• 7:56
  uh,
• 7:57
  tomorrow night,
• 7:58
  uh,
• 7:58
  52% to 33% over Crowley,
• 8:00
  who now seems to be the only,
• 8:02
  David Crowley is the only,
• 8:03
  uh,
• 8:03
  the only,
• 8:04
  uh,
• 8:05
  person competing with her at this point.
• 8:07
  You'll note that both of these polls,
• 8:09
  hung by 19 and Hong by 18,
• 8:11
  those are the best two polls
• 8:12
  for,
• 8:13
  uh,
• 8:13
  for
• 8:14
  Crowley in this race,
• 8:16
  both
• 8:16
  sponsored by Crowley.
• 8:19
  So,
• 8:20
  uh,
• 8:20
  this is one where it does seem like Hong should win this race,
• 8:23
  and you seem,
• 8:23
  you would think relatively easily.
• 8:25
  Let's look at the markets.
• 8:26
  Let's,
• 8:26
  uh,
• 8:26
  bring up,
• 8:26
  uh,
• 8:27
  Wisconsin Democratic governor
• 8:29
  nominee.
• 8:30
  This one is on Cal,
• 8:31
  uh,
• 8:31
  Calshi,
• 8:32
  I believe,
• 8:32
  yes.
• 8:33
  And
• 8:34
  you see now Hong at 95.8%. I will say.
• 8:39
  There's some value there,
• 8:40
  I think at 95%.
• 8:41
  I mean,
• 8:41
  there's a lot of polling here,
• 8:43
  there's a lot of polls at this race.
• 8:45
  All of his,
• 8:46
  her most serious competition is gone.
• 8:49
  And frankly,
• 8:51
  it's a pretty good,
• 8:52
  uh,
• 8:53
  it's even at 95%,
• 8:54
  I do have a position on that and will probably make it bigger.
• 8:57
  I don't remember what size I have at this moment.
• 9:00
  I think it's maybe a small position,
• 9:01
  but I think I might grow that at 95%.
• 9:03
  I'm,
• 9:03
  I'm willing
• 9:04
  to actually take a larger position
• 9:06
  on Francesca
• 9:07
  Hong in that particular
• 9:09
  race because,
• 9:10
  uh,
• 9:10
  you know,
• 9:10
  look,
• 9:11
  it's strange.
• 9:11
  I,
• 9:12
  I,
• 9:12
  uh,
• 9:12
  you know,
• 9:12
  Wisconsin is a state that's like the home of progressivism,
• 9:15
  the birthplace of American progressivism.
• 9:17
  They're very familiar and friendly to very left-wing
• 9:20
  candidates and can do that in the,
• 9:21
  in the left side of that state,
• 9:22
  even though it's a purplish state overall.
• 9:24
  It makes them very,
• 9:26
  very vulnerable in that race.
• 9:28
  I mean,
• 9:28
  Francesca Hong could lose in Wisconsin even in a,
• 9:32
  in a Democratic leaning year,
• 9:34
  but it does seem like the,
• 9:35
  the,
• 9:36
  the,
• 9:37
  the,
• 9:37
  they're gonna live and die
• 9:39
  with her at this point,
• 9:40
  and that seems like where we are
• 9:42
  in that particular race,
• 9:43
  uh,
• 9:43
  Darlene Graham.
• 9:45
  Is the other big story and maybe the other second biggest one in South Carolina.
• 9:49
  Obviously we had the death of Lindsey Graham,
• 9:51
  who passed away a few weeks ago.
• 9:53
  They could,
• 9:55
  could have chosen anyone in the world or anyone in the state at least to,
• 9:58
  uh,
• 9:58
  to step in.
• 9:59
  They decided to choose his sister,
• 10:01
  uh,
• 10:02
  Darlene.
• 10:03
  Uh,
• 10:03
  Darlene is now the senator from the state.
• 10:06
  That's already happened.
• 10:07
  The question is now who wins,
• 10:08
  uh,
• 10:09
  the opportunity to run
• 10:11
  for this seat in November to hold a six-year term.
• 10:15
  The reporting behind the scenes here is that uh they
• 10:19
  initially,
• 10:20
  Trump wanted to go with Fry,
• 10:22
  who's a congressman
• 10:23
  who was running in this race,
• 10:25
  uh,
• 10:25
  and then,
• 10:25
  and was eventually talked out of it,
• 10:27
  met with Darlene Graham,
• 10:28
  really liked her,
• 10:29
  and decided to endorse Darlene.
• 10:30
  Graham.
• 10:31
  So she is the Trump endorsed nominee in this race.
• 10:33
  Will Darlene Graham face the same fate as Pamela Yvette did in South Carolina?
• 10:37
  We bring this one up because
• 10:38
  we talked about this race at the time.
• 10:40
  Yvette was the one that we kind of ended our thesis statement.
• 10:43
  It was an active thesis to a retired thesis.
• 10:46
  That basically Trump can get whoever he wants in in these primaries.
• 10:49
  That served us very,
• 10:49
  very well early in the primary season,
• 10:51
  seemed to fade a little bit.
• 10:52
  It was on the,
• 10:53
  on the rocks there,
• 10:54
  and then,
• 10:55
  uh,
• 10:55
  it faded when,
• 10:56
  when,
• 10:56
  when,
• 10:57
  when Yvette was not able to hold that,
• 10:59
  she made it into the,
• 11:00
  uh,
• 11:00
  runoff but was not able to hold
• 11:02
  the seat,
• 11:03
  um,
• 11:03
  and win.
• 11:05
  And,
• 11:05
  you know,
• 11:05
  it's an interesting race because.
• 11:09
  Anecdotally,
• 11:10
  I will tell you this,
• 11:11
  talking to a lot of people who are in South Carolina who observed this,
• 11:14
  uh,
• 11:14
  uh,
• 11:15
  South Carolina situation.
• 11:18
  Lindsey Graham was
• 11:20
  A very well-known figure
• 11:22
  in South Carolina.
• 11:23
  He was a guy that we made a decent amount of
• 11:26
  money on when he actually ran in the primary this year.
• 11:29
  Had a,
• 11:29
  had an all-in position on his race.
• 11:31
  It was a little closer than I realized and,
• 11:34
  uh,
• 11:34
  than I thought it was going to be,
• 11:35
  uh,
• 11:35
  but we still won easily because we like to leave a lot of clearance,
• 11:39
  right?
• 11:39
  I don't like,
• 11:40
  I don't like going in on a strong position like that when there's a 1 or 2-point lead.
• 11:43
  I want a 10-point lead that if it goes the wrong way,
• 11:45
  is only a 2-point lead,
• 11:46
  but we still win.
• 11:47
  That's the way I look at a lot of these things.
• 11:49
  And Lindsey Graham,
• 11:50
  uh,
• 11:50
  did,
• 11:51
  he was never,
• 11:52
  you know,
• 11:52
  I guess there's a little bit of like retroactive because he
• 11:55
  passed away at 71 years old and in an unexpected fashion.
• 11:59
  There's a little bit of this retroactive,
• 12:00
  he was this
• 12:02
  beloved figure in the state.
• 12:04
  Um,
• 12:04
  you know,
• 12:05
  he was respected.
• 12:06
  He brought a lot of,
• 12:06
  uh,
• 12:07
  stuff home,
• 12:08
  uh,
• 12:08
  to the region.
• 12:09
  Uh,
• 12:09
  he did some things well for the state.
• 12:12
  If you happen to be very hawkish in your foreign policy,
• 12:14
  you probably had a high opinion of him.
• 12:16
  But he was never super beloved by the Republican Party.
• 12:20
  He never got a big challenger,
• 12:22
  largely because he was a very powerful
• 12:25
  senator,
• 12:26
  um,
• 12:26
  and had a high status in the government,
• 12:29
  but he always was able to,
• 12:31
  he would always have these guys that were kinda like,
• 12:33
  maybe interesting,
• 12:34
  maybe,
• 12:34
  uh,
• 12:35
  you know,
• 12:36
  state senators.
• 12:37
  It was that type of challenger.
• 12:38
  He never really got those big name challengers.
• 12:40
  And for that reason,
• 12:41
  he was able to win,
• 12:42
  but he never was,
• 12:43
  you know,
• 12:44
  80 and 90% of the vote in these primaries.
• 12:46
  Uh,
• 12:46
  I think he won 57% in this particular primary this year,
• 12:50
  uh,
• 12:50
  which was a disappointing number.
• 12:52
  Um,
• 12:52
  he,
• 12:53
  uh,
• 12:54
  and it was,
• 12:54
  you know,
• 12:54
  running against no,
• 12:56
  you know,
• 12:56
  not,
• 12:56
  no big challenger,
• 12:57
  though,
• 12:57
  is it,
• 12:58
  uh,
• 12:58
  can we get this market real quick?
• 12:59
  This is a poly market for,
• 13:01
  uh,
• 13:01
  South Carolina Republican Senate,
• 13:03
  uh,
• 13:03
  special primary winner.
• 13:05
  And you see,
• 13:06
  uh,
• 13:07
  Darlene Graham Nordone at 39.7%,
• 13:09
  Russell Frye,
• 13:10
  which again was the kind of a MAGA type uh congressman.
• 13:14
  Trump's kind of initial pick
• 13:16
  is at 27.2%,
• 13:17
  Ralph Norman at 25%.
• 13:19
  And Mark Sanford at 2.9%. And then there's also,
• 13:22
  I think Mark Lynch is in the race as well.
• 13:24
  Uh,
• 13:24
  he is,
• 13:25
  he was the initial challenger.
• 13:26
  He's still in the race,
• 13:27
  but it's not thought to be a serious challenger here.
• 13:29
  Uh,
• 13:29
  what you're gonna get here,
• 13:30
  and this,
• 13:31
  remember the rules
• 13:32
  are always always important to know our Second Amendment,
• 13:34
  uh,
• 13:34
  to our predictable constitution is you gotta read the rules.
• 13:37
  You also need to know the rules of the particular election in South Carolina.
• 13:41
  We have a,
• 13:41
  uh,
• 13:42
  top two unless someone gets over
• 13:43
  the 50th
• 13:45
  percentile.
• 13:46
  So,
• 13:46
  you have to get 50% or they will do a runoff.
• 13:48
  Most likely,
• 13:49
  that's what we're looking at here.
• 13:50
  It's going to be a runoff.
• 13:51
  It would be
• 13:52
  pretty shocking if someone got over 50%.
• 13:54
  I don't expect that.
• 13:55
  I mean,
• 13:55
  the only one who probably has a chance is Darlene Graham,
• 13:58
  but I would not expect,
• 13:59
  uh,
• 13:59
  that particular outcome.
• 14:02
  Uh,
• 14:02
  the other one,
• 14:03
  I do have a no position on Ralph Norman,
• 14:05
  and I'm not sure that he's not gonna make this runoff.
• 14:07
  I think there's,
• 14:08
  it's fifty-fifty whether he makes the runoff or not.
• 14:10
  I do think that in this situation,
• 14:12
  it would be tough for him to win in South Carolina.
• 14:15
  Though as we've seen,
• 14:16
  Trump's endorsements only go so far,
• 14:19
  and a lot of times,
• 14:20
  it's not just an endorsement,
• 14:21
  it's a passion for that endorsement.
• 14:23
  He had real passion against Thomas Massey.
• 14:25
  It was one of the reasons why we did very,
• 14:26
  very well in that going with Ed Galloway,
• 14:28
  his opponent.
• 14:29
  Because
• 14:30
  of the passion and interest that Donald Trump had in that race.
• 14:33
  I don't know that he has that interest,
• 14:35
  interest against Darlene Graham,
• 14:36
  particularly
• 14:37
  if it goes against Russell Frye.
• 14:38
  I,
• 14:39
  it could be a situation like he did to Pamela Yvett where he was like,
• 14:42
  oh well,
• 14:42
  actually both of them were great,
• 14:43
  and that ruined everything for Yvette,
• 14:45
  uh,
• 14:45
  as far as the Trump endorsement goes.
• 14:47
  What we could see here
• 14:49
  is a situation where it is
• 14:51
  Darlene Graham versus Russell Frye.
• 14:52
  If that,
• 14:53
  I think Frye could actually win.
• 14:54
  Uh,
• 14:55
  in that particular back and forth.
• 14:57
  Ralph Norman's sort of another story.
• 14:58
  Norman is,
• 14:59
  uh,
• 15:00
  you know,
• 15:00
  he,
• 15:00
  he does some things well,
• 15:01
  people like him.
• 15:02
  He was,
• 15:03
  uh,
• 15:03
  but he was like a Nikki Haley.
• 15:04
  Pick
• 15:05
  and that is something that Donald Trump does not like very much.
• 15:08
  Uh,
• 15:08
  someone who kind of got went against his pick
• 15:11
  and also,
• 15:12
  uh,
• 15:12
  is,
• 15:13
  you know,
• 15:13
  uh,
• 15:13
  close with Haley,
• 15:14
  that's just not the Trump formula.
• 15:16
  So I would expect if Norman gets into that race,
• 15:18
  there'd be more passion
• 15:19
  for,
• 15:20
  for Darlene Graham or Russell Frye,
• 15:21
  whoever it happens to be to get in there.
• 15:22
  So I do have a no there.
• 15:23
  I have a no on Mark Sanford as well.
• 15:25
  I don't think that's going to happen.
• 15:26
  Uh,
• 15:27
  so that is,
• 15:27
  uh,
• 15:27
  the case there in that race.
• 15:29
  And then we have a few races in Minnesota I wanna go through
• 15:31
  quickly,
• 15:32
  uh,
• 15:32
  before we move on.
• 15:34
  With a lot more at predictableShow.com on these races.
• 15:37
  Uh,
• 15:37
  political analysts give last-minute money take on Minnesota primaries.
• 15:41
  Money Matters is the headline
• 15:43
  from CBS News.
• 15:45
  So,
• 15:45
  three interesting races I'm gonna highlight here.
• 15:47
  I'm not gonna get too deep into
• 15:50
  the congressional stuff,
• 15:51
  uh,
• 15:51
  for,
• 15:52
  for this particular segment
• 15:53
  just because there's so much to go through.
• 15:55
  Um,
• 15:56
  uh,
• 15:56
  but there are some good opportunities there that we
• 15:58
  will go to a little bit more unpredictableshow.com.
• 16:01
  Let's start with the Minnesota Republican governor nominee.
• 16:03
  Is that the first one we have here?
• 16:04
  Yeah,
• 16:04
  here we go.
• 16:05
  Um,
• 16:06
  and the,
• 16:07
  this has been a fascinating market actually.
• 16:09
  If you're listening on podcast,
• 16:10
  I'll try to describe the dynamics here.
• 16:11
  You have a big lead by Lisa Demuth for until about May
• 16:15
  when she dropped off,
• 16:16
  uh,
• 16:17
  and a big pickup by Kendall Quals who went into the lead.
• 16:20
  Uh,
• 16:21
  then Lisa Demuth,
• 16:22
  Demuth took that lead again and held it all the way until,
• 16:26
  I don't know,
• 16:26
  late July,
• 16:27
  early August.
• 16:27
  And then out of nowhere,
• 16:29
  Mike Lindell,
• 16:30
  remember the MyPillow guy,
• 16:31
  he is running in this race,
• 16:33
  and he skyrocketed to about
• 16:34
  80%.
• 16:37
  I had a no position on him.
• 16:38
  It's a,
• 16:39
  it might be a marker position,
• 16:40
  pretty small position for sure,
• 16:41
  uh,
• 16:42
  because,
• 16:42
  you know,
• 16:43
  Lindell is,
• 16:43
  he's a character,
• 16:44
  we've,
• 16:45
  we had him on the,
• 16:45
  the old show back in the day.
• 16:47
  It just doesn't seem like he's necessarily going to be a uniting figure among the,
• 16:50
  really even the Republican Party,
• 16:52
  let alone the state.
• 16:53
  Uh,
• 16:53
  but he has,
• 16:54
  you know,
• 16:54
  done pretty well in the,
• 16:55
  in,
• 16:56
  in some of the polling here.
• 16:57
  He's got some money of his own that he's spending apparently on this race,
• 17:01
  and,
• 17:01
  uh,
• 17:01
  he is,
• 17:02
  uh,
• 17:03
  he's in the running here.
• 17:04
  Which is kind of interesting.
• 17:05
  We've seen a surge by Demuth in the prediction markets
• 17:08
  over the past couple of weeks though.
• 17:10
  And now
• 17:11
  what we have here is 62% for Demuth.
• 17:14
  Lindell,
• 17:14
  about 38% chance
• 17:16
  to win
• 17:17
  in that race.
• 17:18
  Uh,
• 17:19
  Qus seems to have fallen off
• 17:21
  in a significant fashion.
• 17:22
  Do we have some polls on this?
• 17:23
  Last poll I saw here was Lindell still leading
• 17:26
  34 to 28 over Demuth.
• 17:29
  Quals at 17%.
• 17:31
  Um,
• 17:31
  you know,
• 17:31
  Lindell has led most of the polling here.
• 17:34
  So
• 17:35
  The question is,
• 17:36
  can name ID get you over the,
• 17:37
  over the top here?
• 17:39
  Michael Lindell,
• 17:39
  I don't think is the type of candidate that can get you
• 17:42
  50 or 60% even in the Republican primary.
• 17:45
  The fact is he might win this race with 35 or 40%,
• 17:48
  and that is going to put
• 17:50
  the Minnesota race,
• 17:51
  which I have a strong position on the Minnesota Democrat to win in this race,
• 17:56
  um,
• 17:56
  uh,
• 17:57
  that would be Amy Klobuchar.
• 17:58
  So,
• 17:59
  You know,
• 17:59
  you kind of look at this a little bit sacrificial lamb kind of style.
• 18:03
  I don't think Klobuchar is going to lose
• 18:05
  in November.
• 18:05
  So
• 18:06
  it's a little bit of an interesting race for our purposes though,
• 18:08
  there might be real value here if you believe in Lindell,
• 18:11
  he's winning these polls.
• 18:14
  And,
• 18:14
  uh,
• 18:14
  I think there's a chance
• 18:15
  at least that he is,
• 18:16
  uh,
• 18:17
  the nominee.
• 18:17
  We're gonna watch that one closely as polls,
• 18:19
  uh,
• 18:20
  close.
• 18:20
  I currently have that small position only against him,
• 18:22
  however,
• 18:23
  uh,
• 18:23
  Republican Senate nominee is the next one I think we have.
• 18:25
  Is that right?
• 18:26
  Or we have a Democratic Senate nominee next,
• 18:28
  whichever one you have,
• 18:28
  just bring it up.
• 18:29
  I've got both of them here ready to talk about.
• 18:30
  Uh,
• 18:31
  here's the Democratic Senate nominee.
• 18:32
  You have Peggy Flanagan versus Angie Craig.
• 18:34
  An interesting race here.
• 18:35
  You got kind of like a moderate versus a left winger,
• 18:37
  Craig being the moderate.
• 18:40
  Um,
• 18:40
  kind of a,
• 18:41
  I don't know.
• 18:41
  I mean,
• 18:42
  you know,
• 18:42
  this is again,
• 18:43
  the type of race
• 18:44
  where
• 18:45
  polling is pretty close.
• 18:47
  Uh,
• 18:47
  the last poll,
• 18:48
  uh,
• 18:48
  that I have here is Craig 42,
• 18:51
  Flanagan 40
• 18:53
  with 18% undecided.
• 18:54
  Uh,
• 18:55
  we have a 40/40 race before that.
• 18:57
  Uh,
• 18:57
  in July
• 18:58
  from Survey USA,
• 19:00
  so this is a race that looks pretty close when it comes to the polling.
• 19:03
  We've seen some internal polling come out as well.
• 19:06
  Not all that interested in,
• 19:07
  in that,
• 19:08
  uh,
• 19:08
  but again,
• 19:09
  showing a relatively
• 19:10
  close
• 19:11
  race.
• 19:13
  What,
• 19:13
  what's interesting about here is we do have this dynamic,
• 19:16
  and this is our,
• 19:16
  one of our active thesis statements here,
• 19:18
  which is when Democrats have the choice in a primary,
• 19:21
  they tend to choose the more socialist leaning candidate.
• 19:24
  That has been
• 19:25
  true in most local races.
• 19:27
  It wasn't true in Hawaii,
• 19:28
  by the way.
• 19:29
  Hawaii kind of bucked that trend the other night.
• 19:31
  Uh,
• 19:31
  in a race where a more moderate congressman,
• 19:34
  uh,
• 19:34
  actually held on to a seat by a decent margin.
• 19:36
  Hawaii though,
• 19:37
  a little bit of a different place.
• 19:38
  Minnesota very used to,
• 19:39
  to voting for progressives,
• 19:41
  uh,
• 19:41
  and it's a race that's interesting.
• 19:44
  You think if you happen to be the Democrats there,
• 19:46
  you want someone who can take on a strong candidate from the Republicans,
• 19:50
  which,
• 19:50
  you know,
• 19:51
  it may or may not be.
• 19:52
  I think there is a pretty strong candidate there.
• 19:53
  We'll get to that in a second.
• 19:55
  So this is an interesting race.
• 19:56
  I do see there might be a little value in Flanagan.
• 19:58
  I'm gonna look into that one more and kinda,
• 20:00
  you know,
• 20:01
  kinda crunch the numbers,
• 20:02
  look back at a little more history
• 20:03
  over the next 24 hours.
• 20:04
  Maybe we'll include that on our tomorrow,
• 20:06
  uh,
• 20:07
  last-minute preview,
• 20:08
  uh,
• 20:08
  to that particular race.
• 20:09
  I am interested in Flanagan there.
• 20:11
  At 71%,
• 20:12
  you're looking at
• 20:12
  29% profit on a 79% or 71 cent investment.
• 20:17
  So you're up at almost,
• 20:19
  you know,
• 20:19
  I don't know,
• 20:20
  about 40% profit area,
• 20:22
  uh,
• 20:22
  off the top of my head.
• 20:23
  So,
• 20:24
  Potentially some real opportunities here.
• 20:26
  The,
• 20:26
  the Lindell one's interesting as well,
• 20:28
  whichever way your opinion goes there,
• 20:29
  there's real money to be made on that one.
• 20:31
  You could be looking at 100% profits on some of that.
• 20:34
  Very,
• 20:34
  very interesting dynamic.
• 20:36
  Let me show you real quick one that I've been recommending to you for months,
• 20:39
  um,
• 20:39
  and one of my biggest picks.
• 20:41
  Most of the value is dried up on this now,
• 20:43
  but if you were in this,
• 20:44
  if you've been watching Predictable show for a time,
• 20:46
  you've been able to make money on this race already.
• 20:48
  Minnesota Republican Senate nomination,
• 20:50
  you see,
• 20:51
  uh,
• 20:51
  we were talking about this back in,
• 20:53
  uh,
• 20:54
  the area where it was about 75% for Michelle Tafoya.
• 20:56
  Really liked her from the beginning in this race.
• 20:59
  Uh,
• 20:59
  you know,
• 20:59
  Royce White is in the news right now because he is in
• 21:01
  this WNBA situation where he's declared himself eligible for the WNBA draft,
• 21:06
  which,
• 21:07
  again,
• 21:07
  uh,
• 21:07
  you know,
• 21:08
  like it or not,
• 21:09
  uh,
• 21:10
  he,
• 21:10
  he,
• 21:10
  it's kind of funny.
• 21:11
  But he was an NBA player.
• 21:12
  If you don't know Royce White,
• 21:14
  uh,
• 21:14
  he has been talking about that and,
• 21:16
  and trying,
• 21:16
  he's been getting some,
• 21:17
  uh,
• 21:17
  good publicity out of that.
• 21:18
  But again,
• 21:18
  it's one of those situations where,
• 21:20
  you know,
• 21:21
  sometimes the online hype might be a little bit more than the reality to win the,
• 21:24
  uh,
• 21:24
  the,
• 21:25
  uh,
• 21:25
  the campaign.
• 21:26
  Uh,
• 21:26
  Tafoya is now at 99.1%.
• 21:31
  Uh,
• 21:31
  we've seen lots of opportunity though.
• 21:33
  I mean,
• 21:33
  you know,
• 21:33
  25%
• 21:34
  profit on a 75% investment is a 33% profit
• 21:38
  that we've locked in over a couple of months.
• 21:40
  Your APR on that investment is
• 21:42
  well over 180%,
• 21:44
  close to over 200% maybe,
• 21:46
  uh,
• 21:46
  for that.
• 21:47
  And so hopefully you were able to,
• 21:48
  uh,
• 21:49
  get on that.
• 21:49
  It was a really,
• 21:50
  uh,
• 21:50
  a really strong investment that we've been recommending
• 21:53
  for a long time here on the show.
• 21:55
  Uh,
• 21:55
  and she's now at 99%.
• 21:57
  Last poll there was Tafoya at 48%,
• 21:59
  White at 13%,
• 22:02
  and then,
• 22:02
  uh,
• 22:02
  down the line,
• 22:03
  Suarez,
• 22:03
  by the way,
• 22:03
  was got a brief bump because he was actually recommended
• 22:06
  in the party convention but never really caught fire.
• 22:08
  And then,
• 22:09
  as I mentioned,
• 22:09
  Amy Klobuchar is a Democratic nominee,
• 22:11
  uh,
• 22:11
  for governor.
• 22:12
  So that's where we are
• 22:13
  right now.
• 22:14
  If you want more detail because there's a lot of smaller races,
• 22:17
  you know,
• 22:17
  the,
• 22:17
  the issue with the smaller races
• 22:19
  is a lot of times
• 22:20
  you are,
• 22:21
  uh,
• 22:21
  in a situation where there's just not a ton of volume.
• 22:25
  In some of these markets,
• 22:25
  you might have 20,000 to $30,000 in a market.
• 22:28
  So going,
• 22:28
  getting there with a massive position,
• 22:30
  it's not gonna be the case.
• 22:30
  But,
• 22:30
  you know,
• 22:31
  again,
• 22:31
  if you're looking for good profit opportunities,
• 22:33
  sometimes you can find those in those smaller races.
• 22:34
  So we'll go over
• 22:35
  those as well and watch them as the vote comes in.
• 22:38
  Watch that going up and down,
• 22:39
  up and down and up and down,
• 22:40
  taking advantage of those moves as much
• 22:42
  as we can.
• 22:43
  We're gonna take a break,
• 22:43
  come back on the other side with more.
• 22:45
  Go to predictableshw.com,
• 22:47
  join us there.
• 22:48
  Put in your Email address,
• 22:48
  you get all sorts,
• 22:49
  you get all the stuff that I just talked about.
• 22:51
  We'll summarize all that in the kind of the show rundown.
• 22:53
  You get the videos that you need.
• 22:55
  You get the polling,
• 22:56
  all that access
• 22:57
  as well.
• 22:57
  And then we will,
• 22:58
  uh,
• 22:58
  of course,
• 22:59
  we would love to have you as well as part of our predictable
• 23:01
  premium tier,
• 23:02
  the Predictable posse,
• 23:03
  as it will,
• 23:04
  we're gonna be releasing all of our picks for tomorrow there first,
• 23:06
  and we'll be discussing them over at predictableShow.com.
• 23:09
  Join us
• 23:09
  if you can.
• 23:10
  We'll be back in a second.
• 23:23
  Welcome back to Predictable with Stu.
• 23:25
  8 states now have authority to ban or restrict
• 23:29
  Calci.
• 23:30
  According to In-game.
• 23:31
  I kind of a quibble with the,
• 23:33
  uh,
• 23:34
  the framing of that and that like there have been some rulings,
• 23:37
  uh,
• 23:38
  where judges have said,
• 23:39
  well,
• 23:39
  you know what,
• 23:39
  yeah,
• 23:40
  you can enforce,
• 23:41
  uh,
• 23:41
  this particular
• 23:42
  law or you can,
• 23:43
  uh,
• 23:44
  you have a,
• 23:44
  uh,
• 23:45
  uh,
• 23:45
  a pass to,
• 23:46
  to,
• 23:46
  to restrict Calci for until this is decided fully.
• 23:50
  We have seen that in a few states.
• 23:51
  A lot of states are trying to do this.
• 23:53
  I think at the end of the day,
• 23:55
  they don't actually have this authority,
• 23:56
  so I would quibble with the idea that they
• 23:58
  now have the authority because they don't really,
• 24:00
  but that,
• 24:00
  you know,
• 24:01
  again,
• 24:01
  it takes time for these things
• 24:02
  to wind through the court system.
• 24:03
  The CFTC
• 24:05
  quite clearly has,
• 24:06
  uh,
• 24:06
  has,
• 24:07
  uh,
• 24:07
  oversight of this particular arena,
• 24:10
  but that's gonna take time,
• 24:12
  uh,
• 24:12
  to go through the courts.
• 24:13
  Eventually we will get a situation.
• 24:15
  I think this probably eventually goes to the Supreme Court,
• 24:17
  honestly.
• 24:18
  Uh,
• 24:18
  and,
• 24:18
  uh,
• 24:19
  I think,
• 24:19
  uh,
• 24:20
  they will,
• 24:20
  uh,
• 24:21
  rule,
• 24:21
  uh,
• 24:21
  the correct way,
• 24:22
  but who knows,
• 24:22
  you know,
• 24:23
  you never know with this stuff,
• 24:23
  of course,
• 24:24
  it's a,
• 24:24
  it's a dangerous time if you're,
• 24:25
  if you're one of these companies,
• 24:26
  you're trying to,
• 24:27
  uh,
• 24:28
  operate in the space,
• 24:28
  you know,
• 24:29
  you never know what the future is.
• 24:30
  And as we say over and over and over again,
• 24:32
  it sucks when the government does this to companies,
• 24:34
  you know,
• 24:35
  when the government decides,
• 24:36
  hey,
• 24:37
  you know,
• 24:37
  we're going to hold this over your head.
• 24:39
  We talked to,
• 24:40
  uh,
• 24:40
  one of the co-founders of Predicted,
• 24:42
  John,
• 24:42
  uh,
• 24:42
  the other day.
• 24:43
  Um,
• 24:44
  last week,
• 24:44
  great episode,
• 24:45
  by the way.
• 24:45
  If you did not see it,
• 24:46
  John Aristotle Phillips,
• 24:47
  really cool guy,
• 24:48
  uh,
• 24:48
  a legend in this industry.
• 24:49
  He's one of our Predictable Legends series.
• 24:52
  Um,
• 24:52
  but,
• 24:53
  you know,
• 24:53
  fought a
• 24:54
  battle with the courts for years and years and years and years and years and years,
• 24:58
  and more,
• 24:59
  you know,
• 24:59
  specifically the government
• 25:00
  who kept trying to stop them from doing the things.
• 25:02
  They gave them a free pass,
• 25:04
  they built a business and then they just said one day just
• 25:05
  kind of pulled the rug out from under them and said,
• 25:07
  oh,
• 25:07
  by the way,
• 25:07
  no,
• 25:07
  you,
• 25:07
  no,
• 25:08
  you can't.
• 25:08
  Now,
• 25:08
  eventually they won.
• 25:10
  And John,
• 25:10
  I thought was pretty upbeat about that whole process.
• 25:12
  I'm more upbeat than I would be
• 25:14
  about,
• 25:15
  uh,
• 25:15
  the way he has had to deal with the government,
• 25:17
  but this happens
• 25:19
  too often in our country.
• 25:21
  It should not be the way this works.
• 25:22
  You should not be,
• 25:23
  uh,
• 25:24
  uh,
• 25:24
  you know,
• 25:24
  we,
• 25:24
  we have rules and regulations for a reason.
• 25:27
  And we shouldn't be trying to constantly pull the rug
• 25:29
  out from people when they're trying to build businesses.
• 25:31
  It's just a terrible idea,
• 25:32
  and,
• 25:32
  uh,
• 25:32
  you know,
• 25:33
  I can't,
• 25:33
  I can't say enough about how bad it's been.
• 25:35
  Now,
• 25:35
  luckily,
• 25:36
  the CFTC currently in place,
• 25:37
  Michael Selig,
• 25:38
  we talked to him,
• 25:39
  I think on like basically the first episode of the show,
• 25:41
  uh,
• 25:41
  back in the day,
• 25:43
  uh,
• 25:43
  is,
• 25:43
  uh,
• 25:44
  you know,
• 25:44
  sees this as financial innovations that are doing good and create
• 25:48
  real value for the,
• 25:49
  for the country.
• 25:50
  I agree with him on that,
• 25:51
  uh,
• 25:51
  sentiment
• 25:52
  quite a bit.
• 25:53
  Uh,
• 25:53
  he is a,
• 25:54
  um,
• 25:55
  uh,
• 25:55
  proponent for of these financial innovations and I think has been a good,
• 26:00
  um,
• 26:00
  steward is trying to make sure that the CFTC maintains their,
• 26:04
  uh,
• 26:04
  unique
• 26:05
  and,
• 26:05
  uh,
• 26:06
  sole access to regulate these markets.
• 26:08
  But in addition to that,
• 26:09
  has been,
• 26:10
  uh,
• 26:10
  you know,
• 26:10
  a very,
• 26:11
  very,
• 26:11
  uh,
• 26:12
  uh,
• 26:12
  you know,
• 26:12
  a,
• 26:13
  uh,
• 26:13
  a person who says,
• 26:14
  look,
• 26:14
  we're gonna enforce the law here though,
• 26:16
  right?
• 26:16
  And if there's gonna be insider trading,
• 26:18
  we're gonna hit,
• 26:18
  we're gonna hit you on that.
• 26:19
  We're gonna do these things and keep in line and
• 26:21
  It's interesting to see this development as
• 26:24
  uh the
• 26:25
  um
• 26:26
  uh from uh from the CFTC under Selig who has been,
• 26:30
  you know,
• 26:30
  I think,
• 26:30
  friendly to,
• 26:31
  uh,
• 26:32
  this industry,
• 26:32
  seeing it as a positive.
• 26:34
  Uh,
• 26:34
  this is a new thing that just came out.
• 26:35
  This is from Gambling In insiders.
• 26:37
  The CF CFTC warns prediction markets to stop sports book
• 26:41
  style odds now.
• 26:44
  It's interesting because,
• 26:45
  you know,
• 26:45
  if the point of this is,
• 26:46
  and,
• 26:47
  and I've made this point to you many,
• 26:48
  many times.
• 26:49
  You know,
• 26:50
  is this gambling?
• 26:50
  I would argue no.
• 26:52
  Um,
• 26:52
  I don't think it is.
• 26:53
  It's a little more difficult to make that argument
• 26:55
  when you're putting 220 next to the contract,
• 26:58
  right?
• 26:59
  And,
• 26:59
  you know,
• 26:59
  look,
• 26:59
  most people look at this and a lot of people are coming over from
• 27:02
  traditional sports gambling to prediction markets largely
• 27:04
  because they get a better experience and
• 27:06
  they don't get limited like these,
• 27:07
  uh,
• 27:08
  you know,
• 27:08
  sports books do and,
• 27:09
  and,
• 27:09
  and things like that.
• 27:10
  There's positives
• 27:11
  to
• 27:12
  doing the same types of activity you're doing in another arena over on
• 27:15
  prediction markets cause it's a better experience for a lot of people.
• 27:18
  Uh,
• 27:18
  that being said,
• 27:19
  uh,
• 27:20
  you know,
• 27:20
  it's,
• 27:20
  it is a,
• 27:21
  it's certainly a messaging,
• 27:22
  it's difficult messaging.
• 27:23
  Um,
• 27:23
  people who are coming over from more traditional sports books,
• 27:26
  that's how they are,
• 27:27
  they,
• 27:27
  it's how they look
• 27:29
  at these particular things.
• 27:30
  The,
• 27:30
  it's how they translate it,
• 27:32
  right?
• 27:32
  I translated a totally different way.
• 27:34
  When you go onto an app like,
• 27:35
  for example,
• 27:36
  Calci,
• 27:36
  there are different choices.
• 27:37
  You can go with trader mode,
• 27:39
  I think it's prediction mode,
• 27:40
  and there's a sports book mode,
• 27:42
  at least there was.
• 27:42
  I don't know if they've gotten rid of it already.
• 27:44
  Uh,
• 27:44
  where you can kind of look at the odds and,
• 27:46
  and,
• 27:47
  and see,
• 27:47
  um,
• 27:48
  you know,
• 27:49
  you can see them however,
• 27:50
  whatever format you want.
• 27:51
  I like the percentages,
• 27:52
  that's how I look at them mostly.
• 27:54
  Some people like the cents,
• 27:55
  like 42 cents.
• 27:56
  I like 42%.
• 27:57
  That's the most obvious way for me to understand it.
• 27:59
  Some people though,
• 28:00
  like,
• 28:01
  you know,
• 28:01
  plus 220% instead of that.
• 28:03
  And,
• 28:04
  uh,
• 28:04
  you know,
• 28:04
  if that's what the world you've been in for a long time,
• 28:06
  I can understand why you'd like that.
• 28:08
  CFTC is saying,
• 28:08
  look,
• 28:10
  You,
• 28:10
  you know,
• 28:10
  if you want to differentiate yourself from,
• 28:12
  uh,
• 28:12
  from,
• 28:13
  uh,
• 28:14
  sports betting,
• 28:16
  you have to be able to take these steps,
• 28:17
  and that's what,
• 28:18
  uh,
• 28:18
  they are warning these companies to do.
• 28:21
  We'll see if that,
• 28:21
  uh,
• 28:21
  takes effect.
• 28:22
  One of the things I wanted to bring up for you with prediction markets,
• 28:25
  um,
• 28:25
  they're taking center stage in latest round of quarterly earnings reports.
• 28:29
  This is kind of an interesting thing because
• 28:31
  we heard from Robin Hood.
• 28:32
  Is Robin Hood went on here?
• 28:34
  Robinhood now is making more money from prediction markets
• 28:38
  than they are from traditional stock trading.
• 28:41
  You know,
• 28:41
  this is,
• 28:42
  is,
• 28:42
  it's an industry that is blowing up quickly,
• 28:45
  uh,
• 28:45
  uh,
• 28:45
  you know,
• 28:46
  and a lot of people who are looking at these things and just getting started
• 28:50
  are interested because they're seeing all these headlines about it.
• 28:53
  You know,
• 28:53
  you're still really early,
• 28:54
  but it is growing quickly.
• 28:56
  Another one was DraftKings,
• 28:57
  who has a prediction market as well,
• 28:59
  where they,
• 28:59
  they,
• 28:59
  uh,
• 29:00
  they operate,
• 29:01
  I'm not sure if they operate it through
• 29:03
  another source.
• 29:04
  Some,
• 29:05
  some places you go,
• 29:06
  uh,
• 29:06
  just in case you've,
• 29:07
  you know,
• 29:07
  if you see this,
• 29:08
  you have
• 29:09
  some prediction markets are their own
• 29:11
  markets or their own exchanges.
• 29:13
  Others are kind of just running them through like a
• 29:15
  Calci or a polymarket.
• 29:16
  They're using their infrastructure
• 29:18
  and allowing you to go on their,
• 29:19
  at their site to,
• 29:20
  uh,
• 29:20
  put in investments through,
• 29:22
  uh,
• 29:22
  these other,
• 29:23
  uh,
• 29:23
  these other sources.
• 29:24
  Uh,
• 29:25
  DraftKing platform growing faster than expected,
• 29:28
  $11 billion in revenue,
• 29:30
  up from $2.3 billion
• 29:32
  from last quarter,
• 29:33
  grew 106% on Coinbase.
• 29:36
  Robinhood events contract revenue came in at $156 million.
• 29:40
  This is growing really,
• 29:40
  really fast,
• 29:41
  and it's,
• 29:41
  it's funny because now there's prediction markets on
• 29:44
  the actual earnings calls.
• 29:45
  Um.
• 29:46
  Do we have the earnings call of,
• 29:48
  uh,
• 29:49
  uh,
• 29:49
  what do we have here?
• 29:50
  Uh,
• 29:50
  Coinbase?
• 29:51
  Oh,
• 29:51
  no,
• 29:51
  that's the,
• 29:52
  that's the,
• 29:53
  I wanna play that clip in a second.
• 29:54
  Give me the market though,
• 29:55
  Adam,
• 29:55
  if we could.
• 29:56
  This is,
• 29:56
  uh,
• 29:57
  this one is,
• 29:57
  uh,
• 29:58
  hymns.
• 29:58
  Here we go.
• 29:59
  Uh,
• 29:59
  what will hymns say
• 30:01
  during their next earning call?
• 30:02
  I assume one of the options is boing.
• 30:05
  Um,
• 30:05
  no,
• 30:05
  if you scroll kind of scroll down a little bit,
• 30:07
  uh,
• 30:07
  you'll see,
• 30:07
  uh,
• 30:07
  the terms,
• 30:08
  and then you can kind of follow on and listen to these.
• 30:11
  Uh,
• 30:12
  this is a site,
• 30:12
  uh,
• 30:13
  online pharmacy type of place.
• 30:14
  They do sell,
• 30:14
  uh,
• 30:15
  you know,
• 30:15
  um,
• 30:16
  uh,
• 30:16
  mail or not male enhancement,
• 30:17
  I guess erectile dysfunction would be the right term.
• 30:19
  Uh,
• 30:20
  uh,
• 30:20
  different,
• 30:21
  you know,
• 30:21
  treatments.
• 30:22
  They have,
• 30:22
  I think GLP ones are a big part of their business here now,
• 30:25
  so you see words like peptide.
• 30:27
  And,
• 30:27
  uh,
• 30:27
  testosterone,
• 30:28
  eucalyptus is up there,
• 30:29
  I guess they sell something with eucalyptus in it.
• 30:31
  Uh,
• 30:31
  we govi,
• 30:31
  one of the GLP ones,
• 30:33
  uh,
• 30:33
  wearable,
• 30:34
  meaning,
• 30:34
  you know,
• 30:34
  I guess that meaning the thing that you can kind of,
• 30:36
  you know,
• 30:37
  measure,
• 30:37
  uh,
• 30:38
  your heartbeat and sleep and all that other stuff,
• 30:40
  lab testing,
• 30:41
  longevity.
• 30:42
  They have all these different terms.
• 30:43
  Will they say that?
• 30:44
  What is their focus?
• 30:45
  What do they see as important in,
• 30:46
  in,
• 30:47
  in their business?
• 30:47
  Business.
• 30:48
  Do they see competition with Amazon
• 30:50
  as a big thing?
• 30:51
  If you think yes,
• 30:51
  you can do very,
• 30:52
  very well.
• 30:52
  It's only at 16%.
• 30:54
  Uh,
• 30:54
  tariffs,
• 30:54
  you know,
• 30:55
  they're gonna talk about tariffs all,
• 30:56
  that's only 8%.
• 30:57
  And you can kind of pick these terms
• 30:59
  if you know this business.
• 31:00
  If you're the type of person who's maybe invested in this company,
• 31:02
  maybe listened to their previous calls,
• 31:04
  you can go back and look at their previous ones.
• 31:05
  What do they talk about?
• 31:07
  Research this out.
• 31:08
  Uh,
• 31:08
  this is something that some traders do really,
• 31:10
  really,
• 31:11
  really well on.
• 31:11
  I'm mixed on this,
• 31:12
  frankly,
• 31:13
  when it comes to,
• 31:14
  uh,
• 31:14
  my performance on,
• 31:15
  uh,
• 31:16
  not mail-in performance.
• 31:17
  I'm talking about performance when it comes to.
• 31:20
  Sorry.
• 31:21
  I,
• 31:21
  I just did an episode of Stu and Dave Do America.
• 31:23
  You have to forgive me.
• 31:24
  Um,
• 31:24
  I,
• 31:24
  uh,
• 31:24
  uh,
• 31:25
  the,
• 31:25
  uh,
• 31:26
  the,
• 31:26
  when it comes to performance on,
• 31:27
  uh,
• 31:27
  these mention markets,
• 31:28
  I do all right.
• 31:29
  Like I did well the last one I did,
• 31:31
  which was a debate between two candidates I followed closely
• 31:34
  in Michigan.
• 31:35
  This one,
• 31:35
  I don't know.
• 31:36
  I don't,
• 31:36
  I
• 31:37
  don't have a lot of research.
• 31:37
  I'd have to really go through and see,
• 31:39
  uh,
• 31:40
  what was going on to try to go through those.
• 31:41
  But I will say one funny thing you may have missed from,
• 31:43
  I think it was last year.
• 31:44
  Uh,
• 31:45
  Coinbase,
• 31:46
  they had a mention market
• 31:48
  about
• 31:49
  which terms you could use,
• 31:50
  they would use in their,
• 31:51
  uh,
• 31:52
  call,
• 31:53
  and,
• 31:53
  you know,
• 31:53
  Brian Armstrong,
• 31:54
  who's very,
• 31:55
  you know,
• 31:55
  he's on the forefront of financial innovation.
• 31:57
  He's been a big,
• 31:57
  uh,
• 31:57
  crypto proponent and
• 31:59
  he's interested in these prediction markets as well.
• 32:00
  They added prediction markets to Coinbase.
• 32:02
  So if you have a Coinbase account,
• 32:04
  you're thinking like,
• 32:04
  where do I sign up?
• 32:05
  You can go right through Coinbase if you'd like to go through prediction markets,
• 32:08
  but
• 32:08
  Uh,
• 32:09
  this was a,
• 32:09
  this is one of his prediction,
• 32:11
  this is one of his,
• 32:11
  uh,
• 32:12
  calls that there was a mention mark on an earnings call from Coinbase,
• 32:15
  Brian Armstrong,
• 32:17
  and this is how he ended the call,
• 32:18
  uh,
• 32:19
  last year.
• 32:19
  Listen.
• 32:20
  I was a little distracted because I was tracking the prediction
• 32:23
  market about what Coinbase will say on their next earnings call,
• 32:26
  and I just wanna.
• 32:27
  You know,
• 32:28
  add here the words Bitcoin,
• 32:30
  Ethereum,
• 32:30
  blockchain,
• 32:31
  staking,
• 32:33
  and web 3 to make sure we get those in before the end of the call.
• 32:39
  So that is legitimately so
• 32:41
  he did that intentionally
• 32:42
  so he could check off all the mention marks right at the end.
• 32:45
  Uh,
• 32:45
  so,
• 32:46
  hopefully you had yes
• 32:47
  on all of those because,
• 32:48
  uh,
• 32:48
  frankly,
• 32:49
  if you didn't have yes on them,
• 32:51
  you probably didn't think that was as funny
• 32:52
  as I just did.
• 32:53
  OK,
• 32:54
  uh,
• 32:54
  I'm gonna take a break,
• 32:55
  back in a second with more.
• 33:04
  Well,
• 33:04
  if you happen to miss it,
• 33:05
  uh,
• 33:06
  on I think we have Friday we did it.
• 33:07
  Our album release party for Stu's Picks.
• 33:10
  Yes,
• 33:11
  I have picks.
• 33:12
  Uh,
• 33:12
  I have lots of positions in prediction markets,
• 33:14
  as you might imagine.
• 33:15
  More than I can talk about here,
• 33:16
  uh,
• 33:16
  frankly,
• 33:17
  on the show.
• 33:18
  And if you are a premium subscriber to our,
• 33:20
  uh,
• 33:20
  website,
• 33:20
  predictableshow.com,
• 33:22
  you get access to all of them.
• 33:23
  Even the ones that are really small,
• 33:24
  even the ones that are really stupid.
• 33:26
  They're all there
• 33:27
  and we kind of did it like an album release party,
• 33:30
  kind of felt like a big thing where we,
• 33:31
  we get posted it for everyone to see.
• 33:32
  They could kind of go through it.
• 33:34
  We,
• 33:34
  we actually made,
• 33:35
  uh,
• 33:35
  fake covers of,
• 33:36
  of the albums.
• 33:37
  Uh,
• 33:37
  they wound up going with this one for the first edition.
• 33:39
  This is,
• 33:40
  uh,
• 33:40
  me as I think LL Cool J.
• 33:42
  Look,
• 33:42
  I look really cool.
• 33:43
  Only 5.99 for that particular,
• 33:45
  uh,
• 33:46
  record,
• 33:46
  uh,
• 33:47
  Stu's picks.
• 33:47
  And then you've got
• 33:48
  this one,
• 33:49
  the country,
• 33:50
  uh,
• 33:50
  version of Stu's picks.
• 33:52
  Someone pointed out
• 33:53
  that it might look a little Tallarico-ish here.
• 33:56
  A little inauthentic country boy,
• 33:58
  uh,
• 33:59
  which is,
• 33:59
  by the way,
• 34:00
  true,
• 34:00
  um,
• 34:00
  I was born in New York,
• 34:01
  but also,
• 34:02
  uh,
• 34:02
  hurtful,
• 34:03
  uh,
• 34:03
  frankly,
• 34:04
  uh,
• 34:04
  when you,
• 34:04
  when you put me in the same breath as James Tallarico,
• 34:07
  I'm not happy about it.
• 34:08
  But if you wanna look at me as a real authentic tough guy,
• 34:10
  I think it's this one.
• 34:12
  this is,
• 34:12
  uh,
• 34:13
  me as a.
• 34:14
  Glam metal guy.
• 34:16
  Uh,
• 34:16
  I guess,
• 34:17
  uh,
• 34:17
  Stu's picks,
• 34:18
  uh,
• 34:18
  by Stubergear available at predictableshow.com.
• 34:21
  And there's a reason why we did make a big deal of this because we've done very,
• 34:25
  very well so far and so far made
• 34:27
  a lot of premium subscribers and free subscribers.
• 34:29
  Uh,
• 34:30
  we've been able to go on a fun journey together where we've done very,
• 34:32
  very well throughout these
• 34:33
  primaries.
• 34:34
  We'd like to update you on the record as we have the update here today.
• 34:37
  Our win rate by investment size.
• 34:39
  We have 5 different investment sizes,
• 34:41
  55 different investment sizes that we do,
• 34:43
  kind of based on the confidence that I have.
• 34:45
  In any
• 34:46
  individual pick.
• 34:48
  Uh,
• 34:48
  our marker size position right now,
• 34:50
  our smallest position,
• 34:51
  kind of just kind of marked the market.
• 34:52
  Basically,
• 34:52
  I think of that one is
• 34:53
  when I see a market,
• 34:54
  I'm like,
• 34:54
  oh,
• 34:54
  that's interesting.
• 34:55
  I'll put a very small,
• 34:56
  like,
• 34:57
  you know,
• 34:57
  really small position.
• 34:59
  It can be as low as a share
• 35:00
  on a market.
• 35:01
  Uh,
• 35:01
  so far there,
• 35:01
  we are 53 and 19 on the year,
• 35:03
  73.6%
• 35:05
  success rate.
• 35:06
  When we go a little bit higher than that,
• 35:08
  we call it a small position,
• 35:09
  uh,
• 35:10
  because this is like more like,
• 35:11
  I have an idea here,
• 35:12
  but I haven't done all the deep research on it.
• 35:14
  I'll move it into the small.
• 35:15
  Position,
• 35:15
  not gonna hurt me badly or anything if I lose,
• 35:18
  but,
• 35:18
  you know,
• 35:18
  I certainly like to win.
• 35:19
  There we are,
• 35:19
  48-10 on the year,
• 35:21
  our 10th loss going into double digits
• 35:24
  coming from
• 35:25
  Corey freaking Bush.
• 35:26
  Thanks a lot,
• 35:27
  Corey.
• 35:27
  82.8% success rate there.
• 35:30
  On medium positions,
• 35:31
  we are 53-1 on the year,
• 35:34
  98.1%
• 35:35
  success rate.
• 35:36
  Uh,
• 35:37
  we,
• 35:37
  uh,
• 35:37
  have done really,
• 35:38
  really well,
• 35:38
  and we get to medium confidence.
• 35:40
  I do expect to basically win most or all of these,
• 35:43
  uh,
• 35:43
  and we did lose one.
• 35:45
  You're probably asking what the one is,
• 35:46
  and I have to go over the story every single time,
• 35:48
  but
• 35:48
  he's now our dearly,
• 35:49
  dearly departed Lindsey Graham,
• 35:51
  not winning by 20 points in his primary,
• 35:53
  uh,
• 35:53
  was the,
• 35:54
  uh,
• 35:54
  I think it was 20 points,
• 35:55
  it might have been 30,
• 35:56
  but it was anyway,
• 35:57
  his sort of more blowout win in a race that he almost didn't have any competition.
• 36:01
  I will note,
• 36:02
  that's why I took that position.
• 36:03
  Uh,
• 36:03
  we did lose that 1,
• 36:04
  53 and 1 there.
• 36:05
  Our large positions,
• 36:06
  we are 27-0 at 100%.
• 36:09
  Again,
• 36:10
  I don't know,
• 36:11
  I can't remember the last time we lost a large position.
• 36:12
  I don't intend to ever lose large positions.
• 36:14
  And then all in positions when we're really,
• 36:16
  really super duper sure,
• 36:18
  6-0
• 36:19
  at 100%.
• 36:20
  We're over 92%,
• 36:23
  I think,
• 36:23
  total.
• 36:23
  Uh,
• 36:23
  you have to add that up.
• 36:24
  I'm not gonna do the math for you.
• 36:26
  This is a,
• 36:26
  this is a nerdy math show.
• 36:28
  Add it up,
• 36:28
  check it out.
• 36:29
  I don't know what it means,
• 36:30
  but
• 36:31
  I will tell you that those picks are there,
• 36:32
  and that's one of the reasons why we've invested them or.
• 36:34
  invested time
• 36:35
  into building a,
• 36:36
  a resource for you
• 36:37
  to be able to see all these picks
• 36:40
  as early as possible.
• 36:41
  We have a subscriber-only chat.
• 36:42
  They,
• 36:43
  when we
• 36:43
  first come out with uh new picks,
• 36:45
  and we'll do this a lot during the next couple of days as we lead into these primaries.
• 36:48
  Whenever I take a new position,
• 36:49
  I'll put it in that chat.
• 36:51
  Uh,
• 36:51
  so all,
• 36:52
  uh,
• 36:53
  paid subscribers can see it first.
• 36:55
  That's
• 36:55
  basically a tier designed for,
• 36:57
  you know,
• 36:57
  more traders.
• 36:58
  Look,
• 36:58
  if you're a huge,
• 36:59
  uh,
• 36:59
  supporter,
• 37:00
  maybe you've been a fan since the Glenn days and,
• 37:02
  and just,
• 37:02
  you know,
• 37:02
  really,
• 37:03
  really nice,
• 37:03
  and we would love to have you on the,
• 37:05
  on the premium tier as well,
• 37:06
  even if you're not,
• 37:07
  uh,
• 37:07
  someone who's trading,
• 37:08
  you do get this live stream.
• 37:10
  Every day that we do kind of a behind the scenes,
• 37:12
  we answer your questions every day
• 37:14
  in a Q&A.
• 37:15
  So,
• 37:16
  that's cool too.
• 37:17
  Uh,
• 37:17
  lots of different reasons,
• 37:17
  I think,
• 37:18
  lots of great benefits,
• 37:19
  great community,
• 37:20
  um,
• 37:20
  lots of cool stuff is available
• 37:22
  as part of the premium tier.
• 37:24
  But,
• 37:24
  you know,
• 37:24
  kind of the maybe central attraction are all of these picks.
• 37:28
  And if you happen to be a trader,
• 37:29
  I think it's well worth,
• 37:30
  uh,
• 37:30
  paying,
• 37:31
  uh,
• 37:31
  the,
• 37:32
  the amount that it costs.
• 37:33
  Frankly,
• 37:34
  it's,
• 37:34
  uh,
• 37:34
  a lot of people have already said it's paid for,
• 37:36
  for itself already in just the first week that we've had it.
• 37:39
  Uh,
• 37:39
  here is what the website looks like,
• 37:41
  by the way,
• 37:42
  when you look for the pics.
• 37:42
  At the top of,
• 37:43
  uh,
• 37:43
  predictableShow.com,
• 37:44
  you'll see a little tab that says
• 37:46
  Stu's Pics.
• 37:47
  It has my ridiculous LL Cool J picture
• 37:49
  at the top of it.
• 37:50
  But if you scroll down a little bit,
• 37:51
  there's a bunch of stuff here explaining basically what
• 37:53
  all this stuff means and then a little,
• 37:55
  uh,
• 37:55
  database.
• 37:56
  Here of Stu's picks.
• 37:57
  Now,
• 37:58
  if you look at it here on the page,
• 37:59
  you can,
• 38:00
  um,
• 38:00
  you can only see about 3 or 4 picks,
• 38:02
  but if you kind of scroll over there,
• 38:03
  Adam,
• 38:03
  to the little box in the upper right-hand corner,
• 38:05
  click on that,
• 38:06
  it'll expand it to
• 38:07
  a full screen,
• 38:08
  and then you can go through
• 38:09
  all the picks that I have,
• 38:11
  you know,
• 38:11
  stuff on movies,
• 38:12
  stuff on Bitcoin,
• 38:13
  stuff on,
• 38:14
  uh,
• 38:14
  you know,
• 38:15
  elections,
• 38:16
  Gillaine Maxwell,
• 38:17
  I'm seeing scroll by.
• 38:18
  There's Marsha Blackburn.
• 38:19
  That one is closed now,
• 38:20
  but that
• 38:21
  pick had been up there for a while.
• 38:22
  We had a large position on Marsha Blackburn to win that primary,
• 38:24
  which she wound up doing.
• 38:26
  And you see the pick actually right below that
• 38:28
  is a large position on Michelle Tafoya
• 38:30
  to win
• 38:31
  her primary in Minnesota
• 38:33
  tomorrow.
• 38:33
  That's,
• 38:34
  uh,
• 38:34
  you know,
• 38:35
  one of those things where,
• 38:36
  uh,
• 38:36
  we think that access to this
• 38:39
  will be a really helpful tool for people who are trading.
• 38:43
  There's about 214 positions,
• 38:45
  I think was the last count.
• 38:47
  Uh,
• 38:47
  I have,
• 38:48
  uh,
• 38:48
  I,
• 38:49
  I had,
• 38:49
  uh,
• 38:49
  there when we were posting it,
• 38:51
  we update that big kind of
• 38:53
  database
• 38:54
  every single week,
• 38:55
  and then,
• 38:55
  uh,
• 38:56
  the minute to minute updates you'll get in the subscriber-only chat just
• 38:59
  because it would take too long to get them up there.
• 39:01
  So I wanna make sure you get them as soon as you can.
• 39:02
  Basically,
• 39:03
  because,
• 39:03
  you know,
• 39:04
  especially in these lower,
• 39:05
  um,
• 39:05
  uh,
• 39:06
  liquidity markets
• 39:07
  when there's only 2000,
• 39:08
  30,
• 39:08
  40,000 in there.
• 39:10
  You know,
• 39:10
  when we go and we talk about these things,
• 39:12
  they will move.
• 39:13
  You know,
• 39:13
  if you could buy it at 8,
• 39:14
  you know,
• 39:15
  you buy some of that 10 cents,
• 39:16
  uh,
• 39:16
  today,
• 39:17
  uh,
• 39:17
  you,
• 39:18
  if you wait hours and hours and hours and hours,
• 39:20
  you might still get it,
• 39:21
  but you might get it at 15 or 20.
• 39:22
  And we wanna make sure you get the highest profit possible.
• 39:25
  So,
• 39:26
  check out,
• 39:27
  uh,
• 39:27
  Stu's picks.
• 39:28
  Uh,
• 39:28
  it's unpredictableShow.com.
• 39:29
  It's gonna be a premium tier
• 39:31
  subscriber to get access to that,
• 39:32
  we would I'd love you
• 39:33
  to be part of the team and hopefully profit with us as we go forward to November.
• 39:37
  There's so much coming tomorrow.
• 39:38
  I wanna make sure you understand that tomorrow we will have
• 39:40
  kind of like a quick,
• 39:41
  uh,
• 39:42
  secondary preview.
• 39:43
  Anything breaking over the next 24 hours,
• 39:44
  we'll get to
• 39:45
  on a preview tomorrow,
• 39:46
  uh,
• 39:47
  during the day.
• 39:48
  We'll outline whatever we can kind of come up with there,
• 39:51
  and we will,
• 39:52
  uh,
• 39:52
  give you whatever,
• 39:53
  uh,
• 39:53
  selections that we have that we've noticed so far.
• 39:56
  Then as we get into the night,
• 39:58
  around the time the polls are closing,
• 39:59
  I,
• 39:59
  I'll put my sheet down here with all the pollsing,
• 40:01
  uh,
• 40:01
  closing times,
• 40:02
  but
• 40:02
  It's mostly 7:00 p.m. and 8:00 p.m. tomorrow.
• 40:05
  There's not a lot of like crazy West Coast stuff that we have to wait up all night for.
• 40:08
  So 7:00 p.m.,
• 40:09
  8:00 p.m. Eastern,
• 40:10
  uh,
• 40:10
  closing times
• 40:12
  will be on.
• 40:12
  We'll be talking on Blaze TV and we'll be going on our own,
• 40:15
  uh,
• 40:15
  YouTube page and uh social media
• 40:18
  as well as,
• 40:18
  uh,
• 40:19
  subscribe.
• 40:19
  Suscriber only chat
• 40:20
  at some point during the evening as well to kind of
• 40:23
  go over the positions and watch those votes come in.
• 40:24
  I can't tell you how many times people have been on these rides
• 40:27
  where we've seen
• 40:28
  things change,
• 40:29
  things go out of whack in an election,
• 40:31
  maybe you got a 90% favorite that winds up losing.
• 40:33
  We try to catch those as they come,
• 40:35
  as the vote comes in.
• 40:36
  It's not always easy,
• 40:37
  but we've been able to do it several times so far.
• 40:39
  So if you wanna be part of that,
• 40:41
  join us.
• 40:41
  You can watch,
• 40:42
  you know,
• 40:42
  90% of that
• 40:43
  for free at predictableShow.com
• 40:45
  and into the evening
• 40:47
  with our premium
• 40:48
  subscribers.
• 40:49
  That's all we have for,
• 40:50
  for you today.
• 40:51
  I want you,
• 40:51
  uh,
• 40:52
  to,
• 40:52
  if you will,
• 40:52
  Take a moment,
• 40:53
  subscribe wherever you are.
• 40:54
  Go to the YouTube page at predictable show.
• 40:56
  If you're a podcast listener,
• 40:57
  if you like listening audio only,
• 40:58
  anywhere you get your podcast,
• 40:59
  you can get us
• 41:00
  predictable,
• 41:01
  uh,
• 41:01
  with Stu,
• 41:02
  and we will see you
• 41:03
  tomorrow for a one of the biggest primary
• 41:06
  days of the year.
• 41:08
  We'll see you then.