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Inside The Data: Exploring Sack To Pressure Rate For Eagles Defense After Bears Loss · Inside the Birds: A Philadelphia Eagles Podcast

0:09
Speaker 1: Hello, welcome back to Inside the Data on Inside the Birds.
0:12
Speaker 1: I'm Jeff Mosher, and of course, I'm joined by Sam Finkel.
0:16
Speaker 1: He is the man with all the data and the analytics,
0:19
Speaker 1: and he's got a lot of numbers that he has
0:21
Speaker 1: crunched from an Eagles 27-7 loss Monday night against the Bears. Now,
0:27
Speaker 1: stick with us, audience. All right, listen, we've been doing
0:30
Speaker 1: this long enough. Sam, I'll let you in on this,
0:32
Speaker 1: but you probably already know. Adam and I tend to
0:34
Speaker 1: notice that when the Eagles lose, sometimes... People just don't
0:39
Speaker 1: want to hear about it, and they don't want to
0:40
Speaker 1: listen to the coverage. Listen, we get it. We're all
0:43
Speaker 1: human beings. But the data is important. It talks about trends,
0:47
Speaker 1: and we don't just talk about what had happened in
0:49
Speaker 1: the game, but what it means for the season or
0:53
Speaker 1: what the current trends are compared to the league. So
0:56
Speaker 1: there's going to be some really– Sam's done a great
0:57
Speaker 1: job of continuing to evolve some of the data, some
1:00
Speaker 1: of the charts, and make it very reader-friendly for those
1:03
Speaker 1: of you at home who watch on YouTube and listener-friendly
1:06
Speaker 1: for those who just listen online. on the podcast platform.
1:10
Speaker 1: So Sam, for the first time this year, we have
1:12
Speaker 1: to recap a loss. Yeah.
1:14
Speaker 2: They're never the fun episodes, but I mean, I think
1:16
Speaker 2: there's a lot of interesting trends and things that we
1:18
Speaker 2: can talk about to at least contextualize this performance.
1:22
Speaker 1: I would agree.
1:23
Speaker 2: All right.
1:23
Speaker 1: Let's, uh, get right into the charts right away. As
1:27
Speaker 1: we start off, as we usually do, I love this,
1:29
Speaker 1: the peak win percentage because for the first two weeks, Sam, um,
1:35
Speaker 1: it was sort of like a weird line, right? Because
1:37
Speaker 1: the Eagles would do well and then the opponent would
1:39
Speaker 1: come back and then the Eagles would do well again.
1:41
Speaker 1: But this one from start to finish was not really
1:44
Speaker 1: looking great for them.
1:45
Speaker 2: No, it definitely, you know, there are points where you
1:49
Speaker 2: can see them coming back and there's a chance and
1:51
Speaker 2: then hope soon faded quite quickly.
1:54
Speaker 1: Yeah.
1:55
Speaker 2: Unfortunately. Yep.
1:57
Speaker 1: I think it's pretty interesting that their highest win percentage
2:01
Speaker 1: was 52%, which is not a very high winning percentage.
2:05
Speaker 2: Yeah, it actually almost looks like there's no play there,
2:08
Speaker 2: but even before the game, their win percentage, like you
2:11
Speaker 2: can see that line, and for those that can see
2:13
Speaker 2: it and those that don't, their win percentage starts out
2:16
Speaker 2: higher than their highest win percentage before the game even started,
2:19
Speaker 2: which is kind of interesting, I think, just as a
2:22
Speaker 2: throwaway thought. But yeah, 52%, it was during the second quarter,
2:28
Speaker 2: eight minutes and 15 seconds left, following a Saquon Barkley
2:31
Speaker 2: rush for 14 yards on second and four. At the
2:34
Speaker 2: Chicago 15, setting up first and goal on the one.
2:38
Speaker 2: And Chicago was winning only 7-0 at that point.
2:41
Speaker 1: Correct. Is that– no, I was going to say, is
2:43
Speaker 1: that the drive that ended in the Dalton interception? I
2:45
Speaker 1: don't know if that was that one.
2:49
Speaker 2: I don't think so.
2:51
Speaker 1: I believe that you– Second quarter, 8-15. It might have been.
2:55
Speaker 2: It might have been.
2:55
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think it was.
2:56
Speaker 2: Yeah. Yeah. I think this one was one of the
3:00
Speaker 2: times that they were in a different personnel group, too,
3:03
Speaker 2: on that second and four, too. I think they were
3:05
Speaker 2: in one of the weirder formations that they were in.
3:10
Speaker 2: They were in 21 out of that formation.
3:13
Speaker 1: So their highest winning percentage in the second half, 39%.
3:17
Speaker 1: That's pretty low. As you can tell, the Eagles were
3:20
Speaker 1: falling behind. but it was when Keenum had an incomplete
3:23
Speaker 1: pass on third and five. I almost don't remember Keenum
3:26
Speaker 1: incomplete passes on third down.
3:27
Speaker 2: They were very few and far between for sure.
3:30
Speaker 1: Sure. For sure. All right. So that that's, that's, this
3:33
Speaker 1: is a new look for the Eagles are usually in
3:35
Speaker 1: a game and it's been a while since they've been
3:36
Speaker 1: humiliated like that.
3:38
Speaker 2: Absolutely. Unfortunately it had to happen that game, but I,
3:42
Speaker 2: hopefully they can bounce back.
3:44
Speaker 1: All right. We are at the favorite part of my
3:46
Speaker 1: show already. Not because I'm gloating about anything, but just
3:49
Speaker 1: because I said, when I say favorite, this is the most,
3:52
Speaker 1: you know, probably discussed conversation that you and I have
3:55
Speaker 1: had since going back to last year.
3:57
Speaker 2: Yeah.
3:58
Speaker 1: The trend that continues for the Eagles about third down.
4:02
Speaker 2: It's definitely something to discuss for sure. I mean, the
4:05
Speaker 2: Eagles regressed back to their 2025 form with, you know,
4:10
Speaker 2: a conversion rate of 22.2% on two for nine on
4:14
Speaker 2: third down while allowing their opponents to a superior 38.5%
4:17
Speaker 2: of five of 13.
4:18
Speaker 1: Right. Now, the amazing thing is, as your chart shows,
4:24
Speaker 1: this year they're still converting 46% of third down, which
4:29
Speaker 1: is a high number. That's a good third down rate.
4:30
Speaker 1: They're about 39, right? And that's despite going 22% against
4:34
Speaker 1: the Bears. But it takes us into our next category.
4:37
Speaker 1: They have such a ridiculously high conversion rate on third
4:41
Speaker 1: and short and third and medium, which is a great thing,
4:43
Speaker 1: except this recurring problem that they're in third and long
4:48
Speaker 1: more than they're in third and short and third and medium.
4:50
Speaker 2: Combined.
4:51
Speaker 1: Combined. You're right. Combined, which was last year's issue.
4:54
Speaker 2: Well, last year was double.
4:55
Speaker 1: If you remember. Well, listen, we're only three weeks in, brother.
4:59
Speaker 2: True that. But, I mean, the thing that to me
5:03
Speaker 2: is concerning is if you look at their opponent, their
5:06
Speaker 2: opponent is having double the amount of attempts for both
5:09
Speaker 2: third and short and third and medium exactly. And I
5:13
Speaker 2: think that's really interesting. I mean, you look at it,
5:15
Speaker 2: their opponent has 12 attempts on third and short, And
5:19
Speaker 2: I'm sorry, on third and short, they're double. And they're
5:22
Speaker 2: double on third and medium, the Eagles are. So Philadelphia
5:25
Speaker 2: is four for six on third and short. And the
5:27
Speaker 2: opponent is nine for 12 on third and short. So
5:30
Speaker 2: they're having six more opportunities, double the amount of times
5:32
Speaker 2: on third and short. The Eagles, conversely, is what I
5:35
Speaker 2: was trying to say. I apologize for that, for misspeaking.
5:37
Speaker 2: The Eagles are nine for 14 on third and medium.
5:42
Speaker 2: And in half that, they're keeping their opponents to seven.
5:45
Speaker 2: But their opponents aren't converting that third and medium at
5:47
Speaker 2: the same rate the Eagles are. They're two for seven.
5:50
Speaker 1: Right.
5:50
Speaker 2: And the Eagles are nine for 14. So that's pretty significant.
5:53
Speaker 2: But if they could change that, right, if they could
5:55
Speaker 2: have more third and short, I think their success rate
5:57
Speaker 2: could be even higher. But again, that goes to sequencing,
6:00
Speaker 2: which is something we talked about last episode and a
6:02
Speaker 2: lot last year. And they just have not been successful
6:05
Speaker 2: setting up manageable third and shorts and third and mediums.
6:09
Speaker 1: I don't know how it changes, man. You know, like
6:11
Speaker 1: zebras don't change their stripes. The Eagles... This sort of
6:16
Speaker 1: invites a conversation about their identity and who they are.
6:20
Speaker 1: The reason why you're in third and long is because
6:22
Speaker 1: your running game is not dominant. And it was in
6:25
Speaker 1: the first half against Chicago. We'll get into that in
6:27
Speaker 1: a second. But not so much in the second. And,
6:31
Speaker 1: you know, I think there's certainly a personnel versus scheme
6:34
Speaker 1: issue going on right now. You want to run wide zone.
6:38
Speaker 1: You need blockers on the edges. They don't really have
6:41
Speaker 1: very good blockers on the edges, you know. Yeah, I know. No,
6:45
Speaker 1: and so I wrote a story for Philly Voice about
6:48
Speaker 1: this week, right? When you look at like the– everybody's
6:51
Speaker 1: tired of hearing about it, but the Rams, the Bears,
6:53
Speaker 1: the Niners, and to some extent the Packers, they're struggling
6:57
Speaker 1: this year. But you look up and down their rosters
6:59
Speaker 1: and they've built their teams around having guys like George
7:02
Speaker 1: Kittle or Puka Nakua or Devontae Adams, even a good
7:06
Speaker 1: blocker as a wide receiver, right? Or the Bears with
7:09
Speaker 1: three interchangeable tight ends who can all block and who
7:12
Speaker 1: can all catch, right? And you look at the Eagles
7:16
Speaker 1: right now without Dallas Goddard, and you've got Johnny Munt,
7:18
Speaker 1: who can only block. You've got Makai Lemon, a slot receiver,
7:21
Speaker 1: who's going to be your blocker out of 11 personnel.
7:24
Speaker 1: Not a very good blocker. He's your main guy you're
7:27
Speaker 1: trying to spring on a screen, but you've got Zach
7:30
Speaker 1: Ertz blocking for who's never been a good in first game, right?
7:33
Speaker 1: Or Dallas Goddard, unfortunately, is not the blocker he used
7:35
Speaker 1: to be when healthy. He blew up. He had a
7:37
Speaker 1: screen blown up against Washington. So you kind of have
7:40
Speaker 1: a square peg round hole thing. So some of this
7:43
Speaker 1: can be coached up, but some of it is also
7:45
Speaker 1: just who you are now and who you're trying to
7:47
Speaker 1: be and how you get there with the personnel you have.
7:50
Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean, they have to adapt, right? I mean,
7:52
Speaker 2: it seems like the plan was clearly to go into
7:54
Speaker 2: 12 personnel, maybe even 13 personnel and it just, the
7:58
Speaker 2: roster didn't shape up that way. The injuries didn't shape
8:00
Speaker 2: up that way. You have to adapt.
8:02
Speaker 1: Yeah. I also, yeah, I was going to say it
8:05
Speaker 1: has to be, I think it'll have to be part
8:07
Speaker 1: of your scouting process as well. I mean, look, I'm not,
8:11
Speaker 1: I'm not going to say you can't draft Eli Stowers now, okay,
8:14
Speaker 1: because he doesn't know how to block because he could
8:16
Speaker 1: wind up being a very explosive tight end. And you
8:18
Speaker 1: still have plenty of opportunities in years coming up to
8:20
Speaker 1: get another blocking tight end. But my point is that
8:23
Speaker 1: was a perfect Eagles tight end for a past offense, right? Agreed.
8:28
Speaker 1: Maybe not so much now for what you're doing. So, again,
8:31
Speaker 1: it doesn't mean he can't be a good player, but
8:33
Speaker 1: they really have to pay attention in their personnel on
8:38
Speaker 1: how they're going to block edges if they're going to
8:39
Speaker 1: run wide zone.
8:40
Speaker 2: Well, they have to do things to fit their personnel.
8:44
Speaker 2: It's that whole thing that I think– I hate to
8:47
Speaker 2: go back to this era. We're really going to– but
8:49
Speaker 2: it's the Chip Kelly thing, right? You can't just have
8:51
Speaker 2: a scheme dominate. You have to scheme to your players' strengths.
8:55
Speaker 2: I agree.
8:56
Speaker 1: I agree. That's a good point. I'm sitting here talking
8:58
Speaker 1: about how you have to build this thing going forward,
8:59
Speaker 1: but good coaches have to figure out also how to
9:02
Speaker 1: adapt their own scheme. Now, we can't take a– I've
9:05
Speaker 1: said from the beginning with you and with Adam on
9:08
Speaker 1: different shows– just because the thing is rocky at the start,
9:11
Speaker 1: you can't just do the Kellen Moore, like throw it
9:13
Speaker 1: away thing and go back to the old Eagles offense.
9:16
Speaker 1: Because the whole point of this thing is to not
9:18
Speaker 1: get back. Like, first of all, you can't, you don't
9:20
Speaker 1: have the same offensive line, but secondly, you have to
9:23
Speaker 1: advance this thing. So you have to see through the
9:25
Speaker 1: growing pains while you're also adjusting and trying to win
9:27
Speaker 1: and catering to your personnel. It's gotta be a balance. Yeah.
9:31
Speaker 2: I mean, you're, you're stress testing a lot of these
9:33
Speaker 2: concepts and you just have to find adjustments on the fly.
9:36
Speaker 2: I mean, that's really what it is.
9:40
Speaker 1: Absolutely. Great example is what Ben Johnson did. I mean,
9:43
Speaker 1: we'll talk about it a little bit. I mean, he
9:44
Speaker 1: obviously didn't have the personnel at quarterback he was expecting,
9:47
Speaker 1: and he did things differently. He played a lot more
9:50
Speaker 1: 11 than 12 or 13. He adjusted. He put his
9:53
Speaker 1: quarterback in a good position. So it's not what he
9:55
Speaker 1: wants to do all the time, but he adjusted when
9:57
Speaker 1: he needed to.
9:58
Speaker 2: And Ben Johnson is incredible. of one of the best
10:01
Speaker 2: offensive minds in football. I mean, he has the ability
10:04
Speaker 2: to really out-coach anyone because he just puts his guys
10:09
Speaker 2: in positions to be successful. And that's what I'd love
10:11
Speaker 2: to see from the Eagles offense a little bit more.
10:13
Speaker 2: It's just putting their guys in positions to be successful.
10:15
Speaker 2: That's it.
10:16
Speaker 1: Love the point. Very good. All right, EPA analysis. This
10:21
Speaker 1: is interesting because I like the new chart, by the way.
10:26
Speaker 1: So explain the colors here.
10:28
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, so instead of breaking EPA down just
10:31
Speaker 2: as numbers, I figured graphically showing it may resonate a
10:35
Speaker 2: little bit more and show how exaggerated this performance is,
10:39
Speaker 2: at least. But basically the blue bar on the chart
10:44
Speaker 2: is total EPA per play. The green is EPA per pass,
10:50
Speaker 2: and the orange is EPA per rush. Anytime we're talking
10:53
Speaker 2: about offense, positive EPA is better. It just is. I mean,
10:57
Speaker 2: anytime you have negative EPA, that means that the offense
11:01
Speaker 2: is letting points up, essentially. But remember, when we talked
11:04
Speaker 2: about EPA, it's very sensitive to turnovers and negative plays.
11:09
Speaker 2: But the fact that there was a red zone turnover
11:12
Speaker 2: really hurts EPA. So I just want everyone to know
11:15
Speaker 2: going into it, A red zone turnover means the EPA
11:19
Speaker 2: is going to be very exaggerated. So I wouldn't be
11:22
Speaker 2: too scared at the number and why that passes so
11:25
Speaker 2: far down.
11:26
Speaker 1: So that's heavily weighted by the Tank-Bigsby turnover, right?
11:30
Speaker 2: That one too. Yeah.
11:31
Speaker 1: Because that was the red zone. That was deep inside
11:33
Speaker 1: the Eagles red zone, if I'm not– inside their 20,
11:37
Speaker 1: if I'm not mistaken. Whereas– The interception, Jill, was midfield.
11:40
Speaker 2: Well, the interception, both of them would because if you
11:43
Speaker 2: think about it, it took points off the board. They
11:45
Speaker 2: were expected to get a certain number of points there.
11:48
Speaker 2: They're probably on that yard line. They're expected to get
11:51
Speaker 2: like 4.7 points because it's a little bit more than
11:54
Speaker 2: a field goal but not necessarily a touchdown. That probably
11:56
Speaker 2: was what the EPA would be. But conversely, a turnover
12:01
Speaker 2: putting the other offense right in the red zone to
12:04
Speaker 2: begin on also would swing the EPA significantly as well.
12:07
Speaker 1: Yeah, Bigsby fumbled at the Eagles' 12-yard line. That's where
12:10
Speaker 1: the Bears got the ball.
12:12
Speaker 2: Yeah, so both of those massively swing EPA. Just as
12:17
Speaker 2: a matter of fact, that is definitively what happened, and
12:20
Speaker 2: that's why the passing EPA, I'm sorry, EPA total per
12:25
Speaker 2: play is so swung, but the EPA per pass is
12:29
Speaker 2: predominantly because of Andy Dalton's interception, also Hurst's interception, but
12:32
Speaker 2: predominantly a lot of that yardage. I mean, a lot
12:35
Speaker 2: of that EPA came from Dalton.
12:38
Speaker 1: Sure. Yeah. I was going to say three turnovers, two
12:41
Speaker 1: of them in the red zone. Well, one red zone,
12:44
Speaker 1: one deep in your own, which I would imagine when
12:47
Speaker 1: you get a turnover like Bigsby did and you give
12:49
Speaker 1: the other team the ball at your 12, the EPA
12:54
Speaker 1: is weighted. I would think that that would be a, because, well,
12:57
Speaker 1: I don't know, because that's not expected points for the
12:59
Speaker 1: other team. That's, It's expected points for your team, right?
13:02
Speaker 1: Does it really matter where on the field? I mean,
13:05
Speaker 1: does that factor in? It does.
13:08
Speaker 2: It very much does. But this specifically is measuring your
13:14
Speaker 2: team when you're putting your team in a position. A
13:17
Speaker 2: holistic approach, the Bigsby interception would probably swing more defensively.
13:24
Speaker 2: in favor of like a, like a total EPA, but
13:27
Speaker 2: when we're looking predominantly at, you know, EPA offensively, it's,
13:32
Speaker 2: it's mostly taking points off the board. That's why you
13:34
Speaker 2: see the EPA per rush is not as affected. Right. Right.
13:38
Speaker 1: And this was to me, the most accurate of the
13:40
Speaker 1: three games from an EPA standpoint, because Jalen Hurts didn't
13:44
Speaker 1: run a lot. This was really a Saquon Barkley EPA
13:48
Speaker 1: per rush. And for the most part, Saquon Barkley was
13:50
Speaker 1: pretty good, especially in the first half 17 for, 74
13:53
Speaker 1: or less than that.
13:54
Speaker 2: Yeah. Oh yeah.
13:56
Speaker 1: Yeah.
13:57
Speaker 2: It's for 74 is right for sure. But all I'll
14:00
Speaker 2: say is that EPA is very sensitive to explosive place.
14:05
Speaker 2: So Saquon Barkley, I believe had three explosive explosive runs.
14:09
Speaker 2: Those all very much contribute to EPA. That's a big
14:12
Speaker 2: part of it.
14:13
Speaker 1: Good stuff. All right. Now we're going to talk about
14:17
Speaker 1: offensive efficiency and we're going to go back to DVOA.
14:20
Speaker 1: And again, we'll probably do this a couple of times. Sam,
14:23
Speaker 1: give DVO, the difference between DVOA and EPA and why
14:27
Speaker 1: coaches tend to like DVOA a little more.
14:29
Speaker 2: Well, DVOA is a better contextual analysis because it takes
14:34
Speaker 2: every play within its situation. It takes into account down, distance,
14:38
Speaker 2: field position, time, and score. EPA takes in some of those,
14:42
Speaker 2: not all of them, but the main differentiator between DVOA
14:46
Speaker 2: and EPA is the fact that DVOA adjusts for opponent quality.
14:51
Speaker 2: So it'll say like, not every run is worth the
14:54
Speaker 2: same amount. It depends on, you know, all those factors
14:57
Speaker 2: I said, but also who are you playing, right? And
15:00
Speaker 2: overall DVOA is normalized. So 0% represents league average. So
15:04
Speaker 2: it becomes really easy if a team is above positive,
15:08
Speaker 2: you can tell like from the average, that's how they
15:10
Speaker 2: kind of view. But for the passing and the rushing,
15:14
Speaker 2: it's not, you have to kind of go more by
15:15
Speaker 2: the rank. But a very simple way to say it, EPA,
15:20
Speaker 2: is how much did each play change the team's expected points, DVOA?
15:24
Speaker 2: How efficiently did the team perform compared with average teams
15:27
Speaker 2: in the same situations against similar competition? Right.
15:32
Speaker 1: The Bears, so for an example, right, the Bears on
15:35
Speaker 1: their last drive, they were able to run the clock.
15:37
Speaker 1: They got some big runs. They were starting to wear
15:39
Speaker 1: down the Eagles' defense a little bit. But the game
15:41
Speaker 1: was also 27-7 with less than three minutes left. So
15:45
Speaker 1: that would be probably an area where DVOA's doesn't weight
15:49
Speaker 1: the rushing stats as heavily because the game's out of
15:52
Speaker 1: hand and it doesn't matter as much. It knows that,
15:56
Speaker 1: which is a good contextual element that EPA would lack.
16:01
Speaker 2: Whereas EPA would account for those explosive runs towards more
16:05
Speaker 2: expected points.
16:07
Speaker 1: So when you have here that against the Bears, the
16:10
Speaker 1: Eagles had the 31st EPA. And so that means of
16:14
Speaker 1: all 32 teams, the Eagles had the second worst team DVOA,
16:20
Speaker 1: passing DVOA for the week, correct?
16:23
Speaker 2: Only to New England was 32nd.
16:25
Speaker 1: I was going to ask who that was. We could
16:27
Speaker 1: have done a nice little trivia session.
16:28
Speaker 2: We usually do. But yes, that was the case. So yeah,
16:36
Speaker 2: and they're rushing. They were 17th, so they're right around
16:38
Speaker 2: league average for that. But yeah, minus 30.8%. Not a
16:43
Speaker 2: great place to be. And if you look at their
16:48
Speaker 2: season this year, I mean, it's just not– they're not
16:51
Speaker 2: in a good spot. They're negative 6.4% in total DVOA.
16:58
Speaker 2: So they're like 6.4% under the average. And then you
17:02
Speaker 2: look at their passing and their rushing. They're 22nd in
17:05
Speaker 2: passing and, again, 17th in rushing. So they're average to
17:09
Speaker 2: below average offensively from a DVOA standpoint. When if you
17:12
Speaker 2: compare that to last season, they were almost– the league average,
17:18
Speaker 2: and then they were 12th in passing, so a little
17:22
Speaker 2: bit above average, and then 24th in rushing, like below average.
17:26
Speaker 2: But then Super Bowl year, if you look at that,
17:28
Speaker 2: they were plus 4.8%. They were 4.8% better than the average,
17:32
Speaker 2: and they were 14th in passing and 6th in rushing.
17:34
Speaker 2: So a pretty sizable difference between the Super Bowl year
17:38
Speaker 2: and this year.
17:39
Speaker 1: For sure.
17:39
Speaker 2: But even last year and this year too.
17:41
Speaker 1: Yeah. Well, they hope better days are ahead, my friend.
17:45
Speaker 2: Yes, yes they do.
17:47
Speaker 1: All right, now this is offensive efficiency. I love this.
17:49
Speaker 1: This is one of my favorite ones, just out of
17:51
Speaker 1: personnel groupings. It was going to be one of my
17:53
Speaker 1: more favorite ones this year, Sam, because I thought it
17:57
Speaker 1: would be a little bit more spread out and we
17:58
Speaker 1: would get to sort of have an even level playing
18:02
Speaker 1: field on 11 and 12 personnel and see what they
18:05
Speaker 1: do best out of which grouping. But unfortunately, their injuries
18:09
Speaker 1: and their situation, it's made them one of the highest–
18:13
Speaker 1: 11 personnel teams in the league, which is exactly the
18:16
Speaker 1: opposite of what we thought they would be.
18:18
Speaker 2: I think it's the opposite of what they want to be.
18:20
Speaker 1: Of course.
18:21
Speaker 2: They're just limited, and they're trying to make do, and
18:24
Speaker 2: they have to make do, unfortunately.
18:25
Speaker 1: Right. Go ahead.
18:28
Speaker 2: No, you please.
18:29
Speaker 1: I was going to say, I guess the positive is
18:32
Speaker 1: even in using 11 personnel, they did run the ball
18:35
Speaker 1: better out of that 37 plays. They had a run
18:38
Speaker 1: success of 67%. Yeah, which is....
18:42
Speaker 2: Pretty exciting. I mean, any number in the 60s, you
18:47
Speaker 2: definitely feel like you did pretty well out of that.
18:49
Speaker 2: And it's unfortunate the score didn't reflect that. But I mean,
18:52
Speaker 2: from a pure successful standpoint, they were doing a pretty
18:55
Speaker 2: good job at getting the requisite yards that you try
19:00
Speaker 2: to get on each respective down. They just failed to
19:03
Speaker 2: convert that into points.
19:05
Speaker 1: Right. And obviously, you look at the past success at 45%,
19:07
Speaker 1: not great. only 46 out of 11 personnel, 33 out
19:13
Speaker 1: of 12 personnel. Now, that to me is like the
19:15
Speaker 1: least surprising stat of all, because when you've got two
19:18
Speaker 1: tight ends on the field, one of them is Johnny Munt,
19:21
Speaker 1: who doesn't catch the ball. The other is Zach Ertz,
19:23
Speaker 1: who amazingly played like 20 snaps, something crazy like that,
19:26
Speaker 1: who's playing his first game in about a year. And
19:30
Speaker 1: then EJ Jenkins every once in a while gets on
19:32
Speaker 1: the field. So not a big surprise that the passing
19:36
Speaker 1: game is not functioning really well with tight ends out
19:38
Speaker 1: there who are not really equipped for catching the ball
19:42
Speaker 1: right now.
19:42
Speaker 2: For sure. But I do think it's very, it's a,
19:46
Speaker 2: it's a good sign that they're at a 62.5% run
19:49
Speaker 2: success total. Like, I think that's, that, that feels pretty good.
19:54
Speaker 1: I want more time on that only because if you
19:57
Speaker 1: remember last year, when they really struggled with the run,
20:00
Speaker 1: there were a few games against bet. Like when they
20:02
Speaker 1: played the giants the second time around, I think when
20:04
Speaker 1: they played the Vikings, there were like three games, three
20:07
Speaker 1: or four games where the Eagles ran the ball. Well,
20:10
Speaker 1: And we would say, yes, it was against a bad defense,
20:13
Speaker 1: but at least it's a sign. And then the next
20:14
Speaker 1: week it would be back to the same. And the bears, honestly, they,
20:18
Speaker 1: they do not have a very good, I think Dennis
20:21
Speaker 1: Allen gets the most out a little, but they were,
20:22
Speaker 1: they were a movable front.
20:24
Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean, we previewed that last week. That was
20:26
Speaker 2: a big part of what we were previewing. Um, So
20:29
Speaker 2: it's not surprising that's high, but I do think 63%
20:31
Speaker 2: is pretty encouraging. But again, the thing is, if you
20:36
Speaker 2: look at the overall success and it's at 51.1%, I
20:40
Speaker 2: would never guess the score was what it was. That's
20:43
Speaker 2: a good point. I just think that the success rate
20:45
Speaker 2: was a lot higher than it's been in the past
20:48
Speaker 2: couple of weeks. And if you just showed me this
20:51
Speaker 2: chart right here, I would never have guessed the score
20:53
Speaker 2: is what it is. And that comes down to turnovers.
20:56
Speaker 2: It comes down to like third down conversions, which they,
20:59
Speaker 2: it's weird. They really struggled with third down conversions this
21:01
Speaker 2: week that they didn't, you know, in the previous two weeks.
21:04
Speaker 2: And again, it's the season's early, but.
21:06
Speaker 1: Right. But what did we say? What did we say?
21:08
Speaker 1: We talked about the unsustainability of being in third and
21:11
Speaker 1: long and having 60% conversion rates like they had in
21:14
Speaker 1: week two. I mean, it's just, it's going to catch
21:16
Speaker 1: up to you against good teams. It is.
21:18
Speaker 2: And that's, I mean, I wouldn't even say this bears
21:20
Speaker 2: team is they're not at full strength, obviously, but I
21:24
Speaker 2: would say the version that they saw is not I
21:27
Speaker 2: don't want to say it's a bad team because they
21:30
Speaker 2: beat the Eagles, but they were not the best version
21:32
Speaker 2: of themselves. I'll just keep it there. Sure.
21:34
Speaker 1: I think Dennis Allen had a really good plan. At least,
21:36
Speaker 1: I mean, if you're not facing one of the better
21:39
Speaker 1: defensive teams, you're going up against a defensive coordinator who
21:41
Speaker 1: has seen you a couple of times and is a
21:44
Speaker 1: veteran and he's been through a lot of wars.
21:46
Speaker 2: He's good. Absolutely.
21:47
Speaker 1: All right. The passing, this is the thing that will
21:52
Speaker 1: make people bristle, especially those watching on YouTube. is that
21:55
Speaker 1: the passing chart looks like the old offense passing chart.
21:58
Speaker 1: It does.
21:59
Speaker 2: I mean, there's a big gap on that middle of
22:01
Speaker 2: the field. There just is. It's, it's jarring. If you
22:04
Speaker 2: look at this week's versus last week's versus the week
22:07
Speaker 2: before I did, it's kind of sad. I mean, it
22:10
Speaker 2: kind of regressed back to what we saw last year.
22:13
Speaker 2: I don't know if that's just a product of, you know,
22:16
Speaker 2: the circumstance or if that was their actually their game
22:20
Speaker 2: plan or it, I wonder, did the defense force them in?
22:24
Speaker 2: I don't think it's just that. It's interesting. It's something
22:27
Speaker 2: that will have to be monitored.
22:28
Speaker 1: Yeah. I mean, I certainly think the way the Bears
22:31
Speaker 1: were defending had a lot to do with it. They
22:34
Speaker 1: were mugging up the line of scrimmage and then dropping
22:37
Speaker 1: a lot of guys right at the middle. That's how
22:38
Speaker 1: Edwards got his pass breakup and interception. And they were
22:42
Speaker 1: just– the Eagles offense was out of rhythm. The one
22:46
Speaker 1: thing we've said about Jalen Hurts, right, for two weeks
22:50
Speaker 1: was how comfortable– and how in command, whether they were
22:52
Speaker 1: up or they were down or the opponent's coming back.
22:54
Speaker 1: I mean, you watch this game, you can clearly see,
22:57
Speaker 1: I think he even said this, that they were thrown
23:00
Speaker 1: out of their rhythm and they were not comfortable. So
23:01
Speaker 1: when you're not, you kind of default to your old habits.
23:04
Speaker 1: You look for where you think you can strike, right?
23:07
Speaker 1: And usually for Hertz, that was on the sidelines.
23:09
Speaker 2: Absolutely. I mean, that makes sense to me.
23:13
Speaker 1: Yeah. Some of the breakdowns. What stands out to you
23:17
Speaker 1: about some of the Hertz throws?
23:19
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean... He was 16 for 25 for only
23:22
Speaker 2: 153 yards, which is 6.1 yards per attempt. He only
23:27
Speaker 2: had six passes, which is 24% of them, 10 plus
23:30
Speaker 2: air yards down the field. Wow.
23:32
Speaker 1: That's low for him.
23:33
Speaker 2: It's very low for him. But on those throws, he
23:36
Speaker 2: only completed two out of six, which is 33%, for
23:40
Speaker 2: 49 yards. That's all season lows, according to NextGenStats. Wow.
23:44
Speaker 1: Yeah.
23:45
Speaker 2: And the Eagles went three and out on three straight
23:48
Speaker 2: drives to start the third quarter with Hertz completing three
23:50
Speaker 2: for five for six yards. And none of those passes
23:54
Speaker 2: traveled over 10 yards.
23:56
Speaker 1: Hmm. Just so on Eagles, like in every way.
24:00
Speaker 2: It was not what we expected from this offense from Hertz.
24:04
Speaker 2: I mean, another, you know, a signature Jalen Hertz thought
24:06
Speaker 2: is usually that CPOE, but again, CPOE comes from throwing
24:10
Speaker 2: the ball down the field, right? I mean, that's where
24:13
Speaker 2: that comes from. So I'm not surprised. minus 4.6% because
24:18
Speaker 2: the thing is if somebody drops a pass, I mean, that's,
24:21
Speaker 2: you know, especially if it's one that's, you know, only
24:24
Speaker 2: two yards from the line of scrimmage. I mean, that's,
24:27
Speaker 2: you're not going to get that south high, but that
24:29
Speaker 2: was 26 in the NFL. And then he had a
24:32
Speaker 2: minus 0.59 EPA per drop back, which was.
24:34
Speaker 1: The worst in the NFL.
24:36
Speaker 2: Yeah.
24:37
Speaker 1: Not great. And he only had one turnover. It's not
24:39
Speaker 1: like he, well, he doesn't get charged for the fumble that, Correct. Right.
24:45
Speaker 2: Okay.
24:45
Speaker 1: And obviously Dalton through the interception.
24:47
Speaker 2: Right. Which is, it's alarming that even with just him
24:50
Speaker 2: being responsible for one turnover, that his EPA for drop
24:54
Speaker 2: back was the worst in the NFL.
24:56
Speaker 1: Indeed. All right. Your pressure box here. Always interesting. Time
25:01
Speaker 1: to throw versus time to pressure. Yeah.
25:03
Speaker 2: I mean, the Eagles are both first in time to
25:06
Speaker 2: throw and time to pressure on their offense. I mean,
25:08
Speaker 2: they're holding the ball the longest, but they're also actually
25:10
Speaker 2: holding up from pressure the most. Right. Um, That being said,
25:16
Speaker 2: Hurts is holding the ball longer than the actual protections
25:21
Speaker 2: allowing for him. But in this week, what's interesting is
25:27
Speaker 2: those numbers were reduced significantly. If you look at the season,
25:31
Speaker 2: it was 3.25 time to throw. It was only 2.88 here.
25:34
Speaker 2: So Hurts was uncomfortable. They made him uncomfortable. And then
25:38
Speaker 2: the time to pressure dropped significantly. from 3.11 to 2.7.
25:43
Speaker 2: And I wanted to add the league average here because
25:47
Speaker 2: I think it's kind of interesting. I think it's great.
25:49
Speaker 2: It's at 2.9. I mean, the Eagles were significantly over
25:53
Speaker 2: on the year, but they were pretty much league average
25:57
Speaker 2: for time to throw, but they were significantly under in
25:59
Speaker 2: time to pressure this week.
26:01
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I don't think that's an offensive line stat.
26:03
Speaker 1: I think we say that a lot. The Bears quite
26:06
Speaker 1: frequently were bringing more guys than– the Eagles had to
26:10
Speaker 1: protect offensive line wise. Sometimes, you know, keep tight ends
26:14
Speaker 1: and backs in. So they were, they were manufacturing pressure
26:17
Speaker 1: pressure because they felt like they had to.
26:20
Speaker 2: I agree. That's, that's a really good way to put it.
26:22
Speaker 1: Yeah. And again, Alan's one of those guys who knows
26:26
Speaker 1: how to break down your scheme where you're, you've got
26:28
Speaker 1: three guys blocking two and then one free rusher. He's
26:31
Speaker 1: really good at that.
26:32
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Speaker 1: made for Philly fans 21 and up. Okay, Eagles passing
29:19
Speaker 1: offense pressure in sacks. We just talked about a little bit,
29:22
Speaker 1: but this is now the pressure rate.
29:23
Speaker 2: Mm-hmm. Definitely worth discussing here. I also added the league
29:30
Speaker 2: average here. Their quarterback pressure percentage on the season is 38.7%.
29:34
Speaker 2: The league average is 33.1%. They're tied for 23rd in
29:36
Speaker 2: the league. Of those pressures, I mean, they are given
29:45
Speaker 2: an 8.3% sack percentage on the year, which is tied
29:48
Speaker 2: for 25th, while the average is 5.3%.
29:50
Speaker 1: Is that an offensive line stat to you?
29:55
Speaker 2: To me, that is not necessarily an offensive line stat.
29:58
Speaker 2: It's a better stat than the last one we just
30:00
Speaker 2: talked about. But, I mean, sacks can be called just
30:03
Speaker 2: as easily by the quarterback for multiple reasons. I mean,
30:06
Speaker 2: a lot of times if they don't slide the pressure
30:08
Speaker 2: correctly or if they hold the ball too long, there's
30:10
Speaker 2: a lot of reasons why. I think pressure to sack
30:15
Speaker 2: could be maybe even a quarterback stat to me. But
30:20
Speaker 2: I don't know. I think the quarterback pressure stat itself
30:23
Speaker 2: is more offensive line to me. SAC, not necessarily, but
30:26
Speaker 2: the quarterback pressure one, I feel more comfortable assigning to
30:29
Speaker 2: the quarterback.
30:30
Speaker 1: I mean, there were a couple, I mean, there were
30:32
Speaker 1: a couple of hurries allowed and, you know, the Eagles
30:35
Speaker 1: don't pass the ball a ton. So if you get
30:37
Speaker 1: like five or six of them, it impacts that percentage,
30:40
Speaker 1: you know, quite a bit. Yeah.
30:42
Speaker 2: And so, I mean, you look at it, they had
30:45
Speaker 2: the same exact quarterback pressure percentage on the season as
30:50
Speaker 2: they did against Chicago, which again is higher than average.
30:54
Speaker 2: Their sack percentage was lower than their season percentage, but
30:58
Speaker 2: it was still pretty significantly higher than league average. And
31:03
Speaker 2: then again, talking about pressure to sack, 20% of their
31:08
Speaker 2: pressures become sacks. The league average is 15 and it
31:11
Speaker 2: was 17% against Chicago. Yeah.
31:14
Speaker 1: And I think the alarming thing is that they had
31:16
Speaker 1: the exact, like you said, they had the exact same
31:18
Speaker 1: pressure percentage against Chicago as they had all year, but
31:22
Speaker 1: at least weeks one and two, you're seeing guys like
31:24
Speaker 1: Jeffrey Simmons week one, you saw, Oh, a Lou was
31:27
Speaker 1: a good pastor. Like, like the bears, they have Montez sweat.
31:30
Speaker 1: He's good.
31:30
Speaker 2: He's not great.
31:31
Speaker 1: Um, but they don't have a ton of guys, you know,
31:33
Speaker 1: Grady Jarrett's getting up there. So it's not like if you,
31:37
Speaker 1: you would have thought that the, the, the, the bears
31:40
Speaker 1: would have been handled a little bit more upfront.
31:41
Speaker 2: Yeah. I definitely thought so too. All right.
31:44
Speaker 1: This is a Saquon Barkley's run chart. Obviously a huge
31:48
Speaker 1: emphasis on the outside. The Eagles did well. This was
31:52
Speaker 1: the game plan that worked. They felt they could attack
31:54
Speaker 1: the edges of the Bears defense. And for the most part,
31:58
Speaker 1: they did well.
31:59
Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean, Barkley had three explosive runs like we
32:01
Speaker 2: talked about earlier after totaling just one after the first
32:04
Speaker 2: two weeks. If you remember, he had that one really
32:06
Speaker 2: long run that weighted their rushing EPA significantly. We talked
32:10
Speaker 2: about ad nauseum. But Barkley generated nearly all of his
32:14
Speaker 2: production in the first half. 73 out of the 82
32:18
Speaker 2: yards were on 11 carries, which is what you said. 4.45
32:22
Speaker 2: yards before contact. But in the second half, he carried
32:25
Speaker 2: the ball four times for nine yards, averaging minus 0.9
32:30
Speaker 2: yards before contact for carry.
32:32
Speaker 1: The Bears clearly made a slight adjustment to how they
32:35
Speaker 1: were going to look to me that they just started
32:39
Speaker 1: creeping the, either the linebacker or a safety up closer
32:41
Speaker 1: to the line of scrimmage, creating a larger front and
32:44
Speaker 1: trying to force the issue a little more.
32:45
Speaker 2: And it worked. But, but to me, like, What can
32:49
Speaker 2: any running back do when you have negative zero? Basically,
32:54
Speaker 2: they're in the backfield a yard behind the line of
32:56
Speaker 2: scrimmage every time in the second half. What is Saquon
32:59
Speaker 2: Barkley supposed to do? I don't know. In the first half,
33:02
Speaker 2: he was able to not be– you and I could
33:04
Speaker 2: have ran for 4.5 yards each time, essentially. That's what
33:08
Speaker 2: it means. But, I mean, if they're in the backfield
33:11
Speaker 2: one yard behind the line of scrimmage, there's not much
33:13
Speaker 2: any running back can do. I agree.
33:15
Speaker 1: The Bears adjusted. The Eagles– I don't want to say
33:17
Speaker 1: they did not, maybe they didn't have one, you know,
33:20
Speaker 1: like eventually you have what you have up front.
33:24
Speaker 2: Yeah. All right.
33:26
Speaker 1: What's what do we have now? This is success rate
33:28
Speaker 1: versus stuff, right?
33:29
Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean, there's, so the league average for success
33:33
Speaker 2: rate is 40.8%, which is conveniently exactly what the Eagles
33:36
Speaker 2: rushing success rate has been. But against the bears, particularly
33:42
Speaker 2: in the first half, it was 57.9%, which is pretty significant. Yeah.
33:46
Speaker 1: I'm actually surprised that they were at league average going
33:49
Speaker 1: into the game because we've talked so much about how
33:51
Speaker 1: disappointing their run game has been. Does this count the
33:53
Speaker 1: scrambles or not?
33:54
Speaker 2: It does count the scrambles. That is something we definitely
33:58
Speaker 2: have to caveat for sure. But the stuff rate, the
34:01
Speaker 2: average is 15.8%, which is conveniently exactly what their stuff
34:06
Speaker 2: rate was against Chicago. But on the season, they have
34:09
Speaker 2: a higher stuff rate than the league average.
34:12
Speaker 1: That does not count scrambles, right? That does not. Yeah,
34:16
Speaker 1: that's a pure rushing stat. So, yeah, they get stuffed
34:18
Speaker 1: at a higher rate than league average. It's hard to
34:20
Speaker 1: believe two years removed from the greatest rushing season in
34:25
Speaker 1: franchise history and one of the best in NFL history,
34:27
Speaker 1: and now they're just below league average. It's unbelievable.
34:32
Speaker 2: It's unbelievable in a bad way.
34:34
Speaker 1: Yes, yes. All right, now we're going to go through
34:37
Speaker 1: EPA from the defensive side as we switch here because
34:40
Speaker 1: defense was not what everybody thought it would be. The
34:43
Speaker 1: whole– But it's Case Keenum thing did not come into play.
34:47
Speaker 2: No, at all. In fact, I think that if that
34:52
Speaker 2: was a mentality even a little bit on the team,
34:54
Speaker 2: they should have re-evaluated that mentality. Sure. But yeah, remember,
34:58
Speaker 2: EPA on the defense, that means negative is good, right?
35:01
Speaker 1: Right.
35:01
Speaker 2: You want that to be negative because that means that
35:03
Speaker 2: you're preventing the team. It's always from an offensive standpoint, right?
35:07
Speaker 2: So you're trying to say you prevented that offense from scoring.
35:11
Speaker 2: That's why negative is better. So if you look at
35:13
Speaker 2: that 2024 and 2025 units, everything's negative. You're in really
35:19
Speaker 2: good shape there.
35:20
Speaker 1: And big number negative. Yeah.
35:22
Speaker 2: Big number negative for sure. But that's per play, right?
35:26
Speaker 2: I mean, every time you are actively essentially preventing the
35:30
Speaker 2: offense from scoring. That has not been the case this
35:33
Speaker 2: year whatsoever. They've been pretty close to zero, but that's,
35:38
Speaker 2: that just means like nothing's really happening. But, they've been
35:41
Speaker 2: positive in EPA per play and EPA per pass. So,
35:45
Speaker 2: I mean, you look at that, it was significantly worse
35:48
Speaker 2: against Chicago, right? Their EPA was doubled per play. They
35:53
Speaker 2: were allowing double the amount of expected points. And then
35:57
Speaker 2: essentially like 2.5 for EPA per pass. I will say
36:02
Speaker 2: that their rushing was better. Their EPA rushing per rush
36:07
Speaker 2: was better, but.
36:08
Speaker 1: That's, I'm laughing. Can you imagine comparing these numbers to
36:12
Speaker 1: last year's Black Friday game? And if you had showed
36:16
Speaker 1: somebody the stats from last year's Black Friday game and
36:18
Speaker 1: then said, oh, but this year the Eagles would have
36:21
Speaker 1: a positive, a negative EPA per rush, which is like
36:24
Speaker 1: you just said, negative defense is good. You would have
36:27
Speaker 1: been like, oh, that's amazing. How the hell in the
36:30
Speaker 1: world were they able to stop the run after giving
36:32
Speaker 1: up 281 yards a year ago? Oh, well, they got
36:36
Speaker 1: carved up by a 38-year-old journeyman backup quarterback. That's it.
36:40
Speaker 1: It's just a complete role reversal. It's unbelievable.
36:43
Speaker 2: It is. But you almost wonder if that was part
36:46
Speaker 2: of Fangio's plan, is to try to stop the run
36:49
Speaker 2: and maybe just kind of discounted the abilities of Mr. Keenum.
36:54
Speaker 1: That's a good point. I would agree with that if
36:57
Speaker 1: I thought he played a lot more base defense, but
36:59
Speaker 1: he was still a nickel player. quite a bit. I
37:02
Speaker 1: just think that they were more keyed into the run
37:04
Speaker 1: and clearly there was some mojo, magic mojo. You got
37:09
Speaker 1: to admit, Keenum made some throws under pressure that you
37:12
Speaker 1: just throw your hands up and say, I don't know
37:14
Speaker 1: if the Eagles did anything that badly other than this
37:17
Speaker 1: guy just made an unbelievable throw.
37:18
Speaker 2: No, exactly. But I mean, I did think they brought
37:21
Speaker 2: a couple blitz looks that were interesting. They did.
37:23
Speaker 1: Yeah.
37:24
Speaker 2: And to me, I feel like a lot of that
37:27
Speaker 2: feels good against you know, you, what you would, you'd
37:30
Speaker 2: expect that to be successful against Keenum. And if not
37:34
Speaker 2: in run support, you know, you'd feel pretty good about
37:36
Speaker 2: some of those, but yeah. I mean, let's see what
37:39
Speaker 2: DVOA says.
37:40
Speaker 1: Cause that's a double cornerback blitz, Sam. I mean, he
37:43
Speaker 1: blitzed Woolen and, and Mitchell at the same time. I
37:46
Speaker 1: haven't seen Vic do that. Maybe I'm sure he has
37:50
Speaker 1: maybe once or twice, but that's like a once in a,
37:52
Speaker 1: you know, moon blue moon type thing. And he did
37:54
Speaker 1: it and it still got beat.
37:55
Speaker 2: I know it's kind of insane.
37:58
Speaker 1: Um, So what does the DVOA say?
38:00
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, it's a pretty similar story. I mean,
38:04
Speaker 2: it's actually really interesting. It almost exactly mirrors the last chart,
38:07
Speaker 2: which is that's what you like to see, right? Because
38:10
Speaker 2: when EPA and DVOA agree, what that typically means is
38:15
Speaker 2: the teams are being consistent, right? When EPA is really
38:18
Speaker 2: off of DVOA, that means there were a lot of
38:21
Speaker 2: like anomalous plays, like just plays that are crazy explosive
38:25
Speaker 2: plays in either direction. They pretty much agree here. I mean,
38:28
Speaker 2: it's almost exactly the same chart that you could just,
38:31
Speaker 2: if you scroll up for our viewers really quick, it's
38:34
Speaker 2: almost exactly the same chart.
38:36
Speaker 1: As all the way up, you mean?
38:38
Speaker 2: No, no, no, the same.
38:40
Speaker 1: Oh, the EPA one, I'm sorry.
38:41
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, yeah.
38:42
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, so where are we?
38:44
Speaker 2: Down a little bit more. There you go. So right there,
38:48
Speaker 2: right there.
38:49
Speaker 1: Right there.
38:50
Speaker 2: And then you scroll up a little bit. See that
38:53
Speaker 2: chart right there? And then scroll up a little bit.
38:54
Speaker 1: Okay.
38:55
Speaker 2: Okay. A little bit more?
38:56
Speaker 1: Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah.
38:58
Speaker 2: It's almost exactly the same chart.
39:00
Speaker 1: That is crazy.
39:01
Speaker 2: But that tells you it's not an anomaly. They are consistently,
39:05
Speaker 2: you know, above average in terms of the rush defense
39:09
Speaker 2: and below average in their pass defense and just generally
39:13
Speaker 2: their defense is not what it was. I mean, to me,
39:16
Speaker 2: it's kind of insane how identical those charts are. That
39:20
Speaker 2: is what I want to see, right? Because it tells
39:23
Speaker 2: you from– the whole story is saying the same thing.
39:25
Speaker 2: I mean, the stats aren't lying. There's no anomalies. This
39:29
Speaker 2: is what it is. At least at this point in
39:31
Speaker 2: the season, that is what this is.
39:33
Speaker 1: All right, for sure.
39:34
Speaker 2: Absolutely.
39:35
Speaker 1: The Case Keenum spray chart is like Joe Montana's. There's
39:40
Speaker 1: just green dots everywhere and just a few incompletes. It's unbelievable.
39:46
Speaker 2: I was wondering if you liked my section title for this.
39:50
Speaker 1: The case, worst case scenario.
39:52
Speaker 2: I had to throw a pun in there, you know.
39:56
Speaker 1: My pun was, are you an Office Space fan? Have
39:58
Speaker 1: you ever seen Office Space?
40:00
Speaker 2: You know, I've seen it, but it was a long
40:02
Speaker 2: time ago.
40:03
Speaker 1: Well, it's a cult classic. You know, it's a cult classic.
40:06
Speaker 1: But you remember somebody gets mad at Peter Gibbons and said,
40:11
Speaker 1: you must be having a case of the Mondays, right?
40:14
Speaker 1: And then he asked me. Yeah, and then he asked
40:17
Speaker 1: his neighbor, he goes, have you ever heard someone say
40:19
Speaker 1: you're having a case of the Mondays? And the neighbor goes,
40:21
Speaker 1: oh no, man, I never heard that.
40:24
Speaker 2: Stupid.
40:25
Speaker 1: So my headline, because it was such a bad loss
40:27
Speaker 1: to Case Keaton, was case of the Monday. I love that.
40:30
Speaker 2: That's so great.
40:31
Speaker 1: Thank you. I appreciate it. I'm surprised worst case didn't
40:35
Speaker 1: come up to me. That's a very good one as well.
40:37
Speaker 2: Thank you. It kind of came to me during this.
40:39
Speaker 2: I was like, got to be something. I got to
40:41
Speaker 2: throw at least one of those in there. I know
40:42
Speaker 2: you've appreciated them in the past.
40:44
Speaker 1: Yes.
40:46
Speaker 2: If anything, you appreciate them. Hopefully the listeners and viewers
40:49
Speaker 2: appreciate them too.
40:50
Speaker 1: But hey. All right. So the biggest surprise, by the way,
40:54
Speaker 1: is that I thought his CPOE, completion percentage over expectation,
40:58
Speaker 1: was going to be way higher than 1.1%. There was
41:01
Speaker 1: one pass alone that the crossbody, as he's getting hit
41:04
Speaker 1: to a burden on the cross. Yes. I'm like that
41:07
Speaker 1: play alone should be like a plus 50%.
41:08
Speaker 2: Yeah. But, I mean, also, if you think about it,
41:13
Speaker 2: a lot of his throws were– I mean, the guys
41:15
Speaker 2: were just schemed open.
41:16
Speaker 1: Yeah, pitch and catch. Yeah, that's fair.
41:18
Speaker 2: To be honest with you. And so, to me, I'm
41:20
Speaker 2: not terribly surprised. It should be positive because of throws
41:26
Speaker 2: like you just said. But a lot of the times,
41:28
Speaker 2: I mean, it was just their pitch and catch like
41:30
Speaker 2: you said.
41:31
Speaker 1: It's funny because, like, that throw that I just referenced
41:36
Speaker 1: may have been, like, his best throw, the under pressure–
41:40
Speaker 1: kind of flicks it up, puts it exactly where the
41:42
Speaker 1: receiver is going to be, but not there yet. But
41:44
Speaker 1: yet the play that probably had the lowest completion percentage
41:47
Speaker 1: over expected because the guy was wide open was the
41:50
Speaker 1: Raymond 41 yard touchdown. But that was actually his worst throw.
41:54
Speaker 1: He almost threw it behind Raymond. I know. If you
41:57
Speaker 1: go freeze it, Raymond had to like reach back to
41:59
Speaker 1: catch it and then still was able to do that
42:02
Speaker 1: and maneuver his way up the sideline.
42:04
Speaker 2: That was the busted coverage, right?
42:06
Speaker 1: Yes.
42:06
Speaker 2: Yeah.
42:06
Speaker 1: Yeah.
42:08
Speaker 2: That would have been a break the Eagles could have used,
42:11
Speaker 2: but hey.
42:11
Speaker 1: Yeah, for sure. So he was pressured on 10 of
42:14
Speaker 1: 35 drafts, 29%. So that shows you right there, right,
42:18
Speaker 1: that Vic did more blitzing than he's done traditionally. He
42:23
Speaker 1: was trying to disrupt Case Keenum.
42:25
Speaker 2: Yeah. And, I mean, Keenum was extremely effective when blitzed.
42:29
Speaker 2: He averaged 12.4 yards per attempt, which is the highest
42:32
Speaker 2: since 2017 for him.
42:35
Speaker 1: Which is– I mean, that's, that's, that's NFC championship against
42:41
Speaker 1: taking Minnesota to against the Eagles here. Yes.
42:44
Speaker 2: But like, also, I mean, it's case Keenum. We're not
42:47
Speaker 2: like it's there's gaps, right? It's not like we're talking about. Right.
42:51
Speaker 2: So like these relative statistics from next gen stats are interesting,
42:54
Speaker 2: but a lot of the time it's him coming in
42:57
Speaker 2: relief or during that NFC championship run in 2017.
43:00
Speaker 1: So, yeah, I mean, it's crazy. We're talking about things
43:02
Speaker 1: that happened eight and nine years ago.
43:04
Speaker 2: Right. It's, I mean, who would have thought there would
43:07
Speaker 2: be two 38-year-old quarterbacks on both sides playing? Because Andy
43:10
Speaker 2: Dalton's 38, too.
43:12
Speaker 1: Yes, and as people saw on the broadcast, they played
43:14
Speaker 1: against each other in college when the old TCU-Houston rivalry
43:18
Speaker 1: got reenacted right in front of our faces. All right,
43:23
Speaker 1: so Grenard, Sam, he made his debut.
43:27
Speaker 2: He did. I highlighted him here. And I want you
43:32
Speaker 2: to tell me there's one stat that is the reason
43:34
Speaker 2: I highlighted him, and I want you to tell me why.
43:41
Speaker 1: Why? Let's see. One stat. Would it be the getoff?
43:47
Speaker 2: It's not the getoff. No?
43:49
Speaker 1: I don't know. You got me.
43:50
Speaker 2: It's that win percentage.
43:52
Speaker 1: 25%. That's really good. I mean, that is elite.
43:57
Speaker 2: Yeah.
43:58
Speaker 1: I don't know why that didn't jump out to me
43:59
Speaker 1: as obvious.
44:00
Speaker 2: But, and however, it is important to understand he only
44:03
Speaker 2: had 13 pass rush snaps. So is it scalable? I'm
44:08
Speaker 2: not sure, but what I can tell you is as
44:10
Speaker 2: he increases, if he keeps anywhere close to that, plus,
44:14
Speaker 2: you know, minus five to 8%, the Eagles will get
44:18
Speaker 2: what they paid for at the end of the day.
44:19
Speaker 2: Like that's, that's what they've been missing. A lot of that.
44:22
Speaker 2: I mean, that is super encouraging. If you want to
44:24
Speaker 2: look for something encouraging, it's, It's his win percentage. That's
44:28
Speaker 2: what it is. I mean, if anything, we're going to
44:30
Speaker 2: talk about this pass rush. That is the thing that
44:32
Speaker 2: is worth highlighting.
44:33
Speaker 1: Right. Because everybody else was below average. So you're right. Yeah. Yeah.
44:39
Speaker 1: Not the greatest game for the Eagles edge rushers. And
44:42
Speaker 1: then also then we get to interior defensive line, not
44:45
Speaker 1: the greatest for them as well.
44:48
Speaker 2: No, but there's one other person who had 25%. Yes. Yeah. Yeah.
44:54
Speaker 2: That's also encouraging. What's not encouraging is one of the
44:57
Speaker 2: people you just paid a boatload of money to records nothing.
45:04
Speaker 1: Well, he did have one hurry. Oh, you're talking about
45:08
Speaker 1: Joe and Carter. I'm sorry.
45:09
Speaker 2: I was thinking George Davis. Yes. To be fair, we
45:11
Speaker 2: could be talking about either one, but I'm more disappointed
45:13
Speaker 2: in Carter. Yeah.
45:15
Speaker 1: I mean, I know he's playing with a broken wrist.
45:18
Speaker 2: Which is fair. I mean, that is a fair argument.
45:20
Speaker 1: But, you know, and listen, we talked about Jordan Davis
45:23
Speaker 1: getting much fewer pass rushing snaps than Moro Jomo. But
45:28
Speaker 1: it was much closer in this game as you have
45:30
Speaker 1: it here. Twenty four pass rushes for Jomo, 19 for
45:34
Speaker 1: Davis and only one hurry for Jordan Davis. One pressure.
45:40
Speaker 2: Not great. Yeah. Davis's win rate was zero percent. So that,
45:46
Speaker 2: that hurry came from, you know, the quarterback holding the
45:48
Speaker 2: ball too long. That's really what that means. I mean,
45:51
Speaker 2: he didn't win that rep. I mean, he did win
45:54
Speaker 2: that rep because he got the hurry, but he didn't
45:56
Speaker 2: win that rep off his own skill itself. Right.
46:00
Speaker 1: Now it's fair to look at Jomo and say another great,
46:03
Speaker 1: you know, 25% win rate. That's elite. He's been doing great.
46:07
Speaker 1: Jumped off sides at a really bad time. Sorry.
46:10
Speaker 2: He did. He really did. But, and here's the other thing. You,
46:13
Speaker 2: Got to convert those pressures to sacks. It's the biggest
46:16
Speaker 2: problem the Eagles have been having this year with their
46:18
Speaker 2: pass rush. They're getting pressure at a pretty decent rate.
46:22
Speaker 2: I mean, this game aside, I mean, the last two games,
46:24
Speaker 2: they're getting good pressure. They're just not converting it. You've
46:28
Speaker 2: got to convert it to sacks. And at this point,
46:30
Speaker 2: I made the excuse that you had a mobile quarterback
46:34
Speaker 2: in Jaden Daniels, and you had a quarterback that's capable
46:38
Speaker 2: of Cam Ward. You don't have that excuse with Chase Keenum.
46:42
Speaker 2: You don't. I'm sorry. You don't.
46:43
Speaker 1: No, you do not. You're right. Great point. What else
46:47
Speaker 1: do we have to note on the defense here? What
46:50
Speaker 1: did you put up?
46:51
Speaker 2: You want the good or the bad?
46:52
Speaker 1: Jay, listen, we're here for all of it.
46:55
Speaker 2: We'll start with the good. Vaughn led the team in
46:57
Speaker 2: defensive stops with five. I mean, he's always going to
46:59
Speaker 2: be– NFL Pro attributed that busted coverage to him. What? What?
47:08
Speaker 2: I promise because he was the nearest defender to it.
47:10
Speaker 2: So I could, I had to throw away all his
47:13
Speaker 2: stats for this week because it was all, you know,
47:16
Speaker 2: messed up from that. Context is so important. And that's,
47:21
Speaker 2: I just, but either way, five defensive stops led the
47:24
Speaker 2: team pretty good. Everyone else had three. There was a
47:26
Speaker 2: long laundry list of players that had three defensive stops. Again,
47:29
Speaker 2: a defensive stop is just generating negative EPA. That's what
47:33
Speaker 2: they constitute. It's a, it's whatever it constitutes an offensive failure,
47:36
Speaker 2: which is just a fancy way of saying minus EPA.
47:39
Speaker 1: Right. Not a tackle. People have to understand.
47:41
Speaker 2: It's not just means you're not necessarily. Yeah.
47:43
Speaker 1: This is a real data point.
47:45
Speaker 2: Yeah.
47:45
Speaker 1: Oh yeah. It can be. It's just not apples to apples.
47:48
Speaker 1: Defensive stops is tackles.
47:50
Speaker 2: Right. It could be a pass breakup. It could be
47:53
Speaker 2: a tackle for a loss.
47:54
Speaker 1: Well, I guess I should say every defensive stop is
47:56
Speaker 1: a tackle, but not every– no, that's not true.
47:58
Speaker 2: No, because it could be a pass breakup.
48:00
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, you're right.
48:01
Speaker 2: It could be an interception. It could be a lot
48:03
Speaker 2: of different things.
48:04
Speaker 1: Right. All right, the bad stuff.
48:08
Speaker 2: But the bad stuff. Let's talk about the safety position.
48:12
Speaker 2: I didn't really want to do that, but, hey, we're here.
48:15
Speaker 2: Both of the safeties had a higher than 40% catch
48:18
Speaker 2: rate over expected.
48:21
Speaker 1: Wow.
48:22
Speaker 2: Epps had 48.1%. Makuba had 43.8%. Yeah.
48:28
Speaker 1: I think Ben Johnson had a lot. I think he
48:30
Speaker 1: was scheming at him.
48:31
Speaker 2: Oh, for sure. But what that means is like, if
48:35
Speaker 2: you just put a normal safety out there, you know,
48:39
Speaker 2: 40% would be like, they would be lower than that.
48:42
Speaker 2: It's crazy. And then both had a positive EPA. Makuba
48:47
Speaker 2: had a plus three. EPA and EPS had a plus 1.8,
48:52
Speaker 2: which I could put bond on those EPA stats, but
48:55
Speaker 2: they attributed the touchdown to him. So he actually led
48:58
Speaker 2: the team in worst EPA because of that busted coverage,
49:01
Speaker 2: which again is not attributed to him. But that's why
49:03
Speaker 2: it's important to, you know, watch the film and to
49:05
Speaker 2: marry stats with film because that happens more frequently than not.
49:08
Speaker 2: I mean, you have to, you have to kind of
49:10
Speaker 2: look into that.
49:12
Speaker 1: Oh, 100%. And unfortunately, with your good news is bad
49:15
Speaker 1: news because Bond suffered a concussion and he was, I mean,
49:19
Speaker 1: it's going to be difficult. for him to make it
49:20
Speaker 1: back with the short turnaround for Sunday against the Rams.
49:25
Speaker 2: Yeah.
49:26
Speaker 1: Good stuff, my friend. That is a look at the
49:29
Speaker 1: game and it might be painful for the Eagle fan.
49:33
Speaker 1: We understand, but a lot of good contextual data to really,
49:38
Speaker 1: really kind of like mull over as the Eagles go
49:40
Speaker 1: forward because they do have a very strong record of
49:42
Speaker 1: responding to losses, but they've got to get specifically some
49:47
Speaker 1: of the third down issues ironed out. And on defense,
49:50
Speaker 1: they absolutely have to iron out this issue of converting
49:53
Speaker 1: pressures to sacks. It has been a problem.
49:56
Speaker 2: I mean, to me, this is a very much a
49:58
Speaker 2: pivot point in the season, right? We're seeing some things
50:02
Speaker 2: that have been trending, you know, in good and bad
50:04
Speaker 2: directions and, What do the Eagles do with it, right?
50:07
Speaker 2: Do they fix these issues or do they spiral and,
50:10
Speaker 2: you know, blow up? And it's really, you know, their decision.
50:14
Speaker 2: You have to see how the coaching plays in, how
50:16
Speaker 2: the players, you know, buy in and we'll see what happens.
50:20
Speaker 1: We shall. Sam, great work as always. And our next show,
50:24
Speaker 1: we'll preview their upcoming matchup against the Rams and see
50:28
Speaker 1: if maybe the data tells us something that we can
50:30
Speaker 1: be positive about. All right. Sounds good. Thank you again
50:33
Speaker 1: for all the hard work for Sam Finkel. I'm Jeff Mosher.
50:36
Speaker 1: You've been watching Inside the Data on Inside the Birds.