Latest / Uncomfortable Conversations with Josh Szeps / Toomas Hendrik Ilves, ex-President of Estonia
Transcript
- 0:00Sometimes great conversations just happen spontaneously, organically, without any work,
- 0:09but usually they take some work, often a lot of work, and recently I had a great conversation
- 0:20that had taken a monumental amount of work. Even just to line up the logistics
- 0:28took a monumental amount of work. It was a conversation with James Lindsay,
- 0:34the mathematician and author and cultural critic who's become a firebrand, with an overarching
- 0:42planet encompassing mental philosophy about what's going on in the culture wars that they're
- 0:50driven by a neo-Marxist, almost apocalyptic cultural takeover that he has very intricate theories
- 1:00about how it operates and some think that James has gone off the deep end during the pandemic
- 1:05with dark visions of a new global order. But I wanted to talk to him for exactly that reason
- 1:16because he had been so astute and he's clearly so intelligent that I wanted to understand
- 1:26where he'd gone off the rails if he had. Now all of this is something of a diversion because
- 1:33this episode is not a James Lindsay episode. I was using an audio recording platform called Zencaster
- 1:41and theoretically it's supposed to upload the guest's audio and deliver it into the cloud
- 1:50in real time. But when we went to retrieve James's audio there was about a minute of audio and
- 1:58the only minute was the first minute of us chatting. So if you'd like to hear just a taste of
- 2:06the hour and 45 minutes of spectacular conversation between two, I would like to say moderately
- 2:14intelligent people with very different ideas about what's going on in the world sparring and
- 2:19sniffing each other's butts and trying to figure out where the other one fits into the world and
- 2:23whether you're dealing with an enemy or a friend where the boundaries of allyship and adversary fall.
- 2:32It was a fantastic and unreproducible conversation that has been lost to the sands of time. But here
- 2:39is a little taste just a tiny sneak peek of what we were talking about before we got into the meaty
- 2:46stuff. Ordinarily I would be in a studio but I kind of forgot that we were talking and we
- 2:52weren't really talking and then we were talking. That's good. Yeah that happens. I got my pumpkin seeds.
- 3:00Well that should help you out a little bit. Could you zinc up or whatever it's for? Do you consume
- 3:05any seeds? I sometimes consume seeds occasionally will consume pumpkin seeds. I'm not a big fan of
- 3:14pumpkin seeds actually. I don't really like them. I don't think I can't actually imagine what the
- 3:18difference is between a pumpkin seed and like a sunflower seed. Well you see some flower seeds come
- 3:25from some flowers. Right. And how long? The seeds are in pumpkins. They don't taste the same.
- 3:30Some flower kernels have a different flavor. I think the pumpkin seeds. How would you describe that
- 3:37difference? I don't know. I think that the I actually think the sunflower seed has a more
- 3:45pleasant flavor. It's a nuttier flavor. The pumpkin seed has kind of a more kind of organic
- 3:50almost. I don't want to say it tastes like compost but it's closer to taste than I compost.
- 3:57So there you have it ladies and gents. The philosophical musings of James Lindsay and me
- 4:05oh to say that it breaks my heart that you will never hear the full conversation is an understatement
- 4:12and yet one rolls with the punches. I am being very zen about the failure of zencaster ho ho how apt
- 4:21and I'm being zen about the general failure of conversations because I still hold out hope.
- 4:29I still hold out hope for the promise of what conversations honest conversations frank conversations
- 4:35free from bullshit can do for us. Now what they must do for us because is there any other way out
- 4:43of the pickles that we find ourselves in from the climate crisis to Ukraine to floods in Australia?
- 4:49Well that sort of is the same thing as climate crisis in my book but let's park that story for
- 4:53another day. Is there any other way out of all of our problems than to converse with one another
- 4:59to treat each other fairly to take each other's arguments with as much generosity as we can
- 5:06muster to take our own arguments with a grain of salt to be constantly self questioning.
- 5:12That is the stuff upon which civilization is made and so I blunder forth and I persevere in
- 5:18spite of the lost James Lindsay episode that you will never get to enjoy we're even much forward
- 5:23with many more conversations that are insightful frank beautiful honest raw and sometimes yes
- 5:34you guessed it just a little uncomfortable.
- 5:37Today on the show our first president or ex president I've had a prime minister on the show
- 5:53former prime minister of Australian Malcolm Turnbull have not had a president or any other
- 5:59head of state of another country in fact I just realized this is the first head of state on the
- 6:04show because Australian prime ministers are heads of government but not heads of state because by
- 6:08some peculiar happenstance Australia is not a republic yet and so our head of state is still
- 6:14Queen Elizabeth the second. This gentleman today was a head of state Thomas Hendrick Ilvis was for
- 6:2210 years the president of Estonia let me don't be offended if I just run you through some Eastern
- 6:28European geography and history here from them and I'm not implying that you don't know everything
- 6:33about Estonia okay and everything about Eastern European borders with Russia okay but just in case
- 6:41on the off chance that there's someone out there who maybe wants a little brushing up before we
- 6:46start talking about Putin and Ukraine and Estonian borders and things Estonia is one of only three
- 6:53countries three NATO countries that borders Russia okay so if you think in your mind's eye
- 6:59down below the Baltic states like from you know basically all the way from northern Europe down
- 7:06Russia doesn't share a border with any any NATO state because it's got a border with obviously
- 7:12Ukraine which is now completely smashed apart and then above Ukraine there's Belarus which is
- 7:18sitting in between Russia and Poland then you've got Lithuania which is the first of the three
- 7:26Baltic states which is wedged in between Belarus and Poland and the Baltic Sea and only then
- 7:34above that in this little patch of land in the very very far north east of Europe a botting Russia
- 7:46do you have the two Baltic states that actually have a border with Russia Estonia and Latvia Latvia's
- 7:52underneath Estonia's on the top and Estonia sits there across a bridge of water from Finland Finland's
- 7:59above it and then to to the east of it you've got this border with Russia so Estonia and Latvia
- 8:08and Finland the only NATO countries with a border with Russia and as a result they have not only
- 8:19the history and experience but also the depth of understanding of what Russia is up to and what
- 8:27it means to have to deal with the bear right on your doorstep not just nearby as in Poland's case
- 8:34Poland is buffered again by the Baltic states and Belarus and Ukraine I mean depending on how this
- 8:41all ends up if you ended up with Russian troops completely occupying Ukraine in perpetuity then yeah
- 8:45you would have effectively a Russian border with Poland but at the moment they've got this massive
- 8:50land mass of Ukraine between them and Russia Estonia doesn't and Thomas is an interesting guy
- 8:57because he was actually born in Sweden his parents were Estonian refugees Estonia was basically part
- 9:05of the Soviet Union it was invaded by the Soviet Union it was part of this whole sphere of this
- 9:12massive Soviet empire at its peak and his parents fled Estonia the Soviet Union had invaded
- 9:21during World War Two Soviet Union was obviously invading all over the place in World War Two everybody
- 9:26was and his parents went to Sweden a logical friendly sort of similar-minded place to be Scandinavian
- 9:38Nordic and he was born in Stockholm and he moved to the to the US and he actually grew up in America
- 9:49he grew up in New Jersey went to high school there graduated as valedictorian in the early 70s and
- 9:58he then went to Columbia University in New York got his bachelor's degree in psychology got a
- 10:03master's in psych from the University of Pennsylvania and so he's this very sort of cosmopolitan
- 10:11you know pro-Western like you know American cultured guy he still speaks Estonian with an American
- 10:19accent he says and it went back to Estonia and became he was a briefly a journalist he was
- 10:26working for radio free Europe and kind of producing you know news items during the Cold War to try
- 10:31to assist Estonian freedom fighters you'll hear a bit about that he talks about this a little bit
- 10:35and became by his accounts of rather unlikely politician and became the foreign minister of Estonia
- 10:43for a couple of years and then Quentin became an opposition politician and became president
- 10:50of the country in 2006 he served for ten damn years which overlapped with the Obama administration
- 11:01he left office just before Donald Trump was elected and he was in office for essentially the
- 11:09the rise of the Russian threat the rise of the Russian aggression towards Georgia the Crimean
- 11:18War of Ukraine in 2014 he was there in this little country this this very kind of highly developed
- 11:26highly digitized very internet friendly very free economy very liberal democratic you know incredibly
- 11:34wealthy and by Eastern European standards little country that was that has been really successful
- 11:40since the end of communism at becoming one of the most tech savvy countries in the world
- 11:47and he was instrumental in all of that I wish I'd been able to talk to him about that but you know
- 11:52there's only so many things you can talk about when you've got a massive water discuss and so
- 11:58I hope you enjoy this it look Thomas is a a very thoughtful old guy and so you have to get over
- 12:07the pace of the way that he speaks this is not like bubbly kind of rasma taz interview that some
- 12:17you know kid fresh out of political science class is going to give you but this is an
- 12:21interview that is that is soaked with the gravitas of experience and credibility so I hope
- 12:30you stick with it and get a deeper understanding of what's going on in the world at the moment
- 12:35through the eyes of someone who has literally been at the call face the one and only ex president
- 12:42of estonia tomas henry gyrvis
- 12:56can you give me an idea of and the list as an idea of what you were interested in doing
- 13:00when you were younger did you have aspirations to be a president to be a politician when you are
- 13:05zero in everlasting zero none none ever I did not have a desire to become president today that I
- 13:14did in fact so what did you like doing when you were a kid like did you have heroes and people
- 13:20you aspired to be no no I've never had any I've had very few people I've aspired to be so no
- 13:29where we got any further I just say that my name my first name is pronounced as if it were
- 13:34in germ and tomas not tumas yes I bet you have to say that every day to anglophone speakers
- 13:45I do sometimes I don't even bother hey tumas how you doing tumas yeah welcome to show tumas
- 13:56I am 68 I've had this for 63 years what was your name before tumas
- 14:03no I just didn't talk to people who are talking right got it got it
- 14:09everyone in estonia knows how to how to pronounce it what did you think if I'd ask you when you were
- 14:1315 what what what your life was going to be what did you think you would do probably an academic
- 14:20studying some aspect of biology why biology that was very good at it and it really interested me
- 14:29and I spent time doing it and then I got picked as a smart student to go do it at a college level
- 14:35at Columbia University on Saturdays and I thought it was really cool and I was 15 16 and reading
- 14:47college texts in molecular biology and I thought this was really neat stuff which I still do it's
- 14:54just that I I mean I had other interests basically what it comes down to is that Isaiah Berlin
- 15:02talks about two kinds of people the hedgehogs and the fox yeah and the fox knows many many many
- 15:10little things or a little bit about many things and the hedgehog knows one big thing and I am
- 15:17the ultimate fox there is nothing I know well but I have but probably in terms of broad range
- 15:26of knowing a little bit about things I do have too much of that though I hope it doesn't degenerate
- 15:34into knowing merely trivia did you ever think about journalism in the media a lot of journalists
- 15:40to foxes no I didn't no no I mean it was it was a rather peripotentic trip to becoming what I did
- 15:52become where I mean I basically from biology I went on to physiological psychology because that
- 16:01seemed more interesting and then I realized the in the doctoral program I was in
- 16:08that actually I it was all I just gotten good grades I had top grades all the time but it didn't
- 16:17really interest me and so then I did my little Jack Kerawak pitching across the United States and
- 16:24ended up fighting forest fires in Washington state in the Pacific Northwest and I don't know I
- 16:32mean somewhere along the line I started writing about stuff that interested me that had to do
- 16:38the stonium and what was going on with the country since it was being slowly destroyed and and then
- 16:47I was the someone contacted me and said oh you're writing about this stuff and we're looking to hire
- 16:53someone and I guess there weren't many people who were good at writing about this stony and English
- 16:59at the time and so I was hired by Radio Free Europe to be an analyst and then and then after that
- 17:07for without really wanting to they asked me to run the Estonian service which was the broadcast
- 17:15and the things for Radio Free Europe and I so I became a journalist and I was the chief editor
- 17:26and then and then the study became independent and because I've been helping the various people
- 17:33in the independence movement they I was asked to become the first post independence ambassador
- 17:45in Washington which I did and it was you know going from a fairly fairly comfortable middle class
- 17:56existence to hoping that the foreign ministry would send money over to pay us but those are the
- 18:06early days I mean Estonia now is a GDP per capita higher than Spain's but at the time it was
- 18:14$2800 US dollars the annual per capita GDP per capita so not much of a tax base there either to
- 18:24support things like an embassy but it was politically necessary and then I didn't plan on that either
- 18:32and then in 1996 there was some government problem and the president asked me to more
- 18:38basically commanded me to quit there and come to Estonia and become the foreign minister which
- 18:46I then did basically for the next six years five and a half years and that was planned either
- 18:56and then you know eventually my friends convinced me to run for the European Parliament and I
- 19:06won overwhelmingly and so I was there and I was chairman of the Farrant Affairs Committee
- 19:12vice chairman sorry I was not chairman either European Parliament and then the centrist parties the
- 19:20center right center left then the liberals came to me in 2006 and asked me to run for president
- 19:27and I said I don't want to run for president at all and they said don't worry you won't win
- 19:35but he wants you to run to put up an effective opposition to the incumbent I said yeah well that
- 19:42I'll do and then so on the day of the election I was sitting there I mean we have a parliamentary
- 19:50system and we have we have an electoral college and then as they as the votes were coming in
- 20:01I don't know is this a family show or yeah no no you can you can swear well I mean I the votes
- 20:08the the sooner the tipping point came I said oh shit now what and that's how I became president
- 20:17excellent summary I mean other stuff I've I've had some agency in and certainly digitization of my
- 20:23country has been one that I have been pushing for almost 30 years yeah while I want to talk about
- 20:29that but let me just talk about your period as as foreign minister because maybe you have insights
- 20:36from that about the situation with Russia today your foreign minister about five years after
- 20:45the end of the Cold War and you're in the country which is right next to Russia this new
- 20:52version of Russia posts Soviet Russia what what did you think that Russia would become and how did
- 20:58you handle Estonia's relationship with it what did you think the future relationship would be
- 21:04well one of the key things and there have been a number of articles which I've been in in the
- 21:08last week or two one in I guess political sort of titled we told you so but was the Russia never
- 21:17treated its immediate neighborhood the way it it psychophantically psychophantically approached
- 21:24Western Europe and the old George Kenan line that led for Russia you can only be if you're a
- 21:32neighbor of Russia you can only be a vassal or an enemy as always applied and continue to apply
- 21:39during the Cold War and this was it was really no different so Russian behavior toward us was
- 21:45extremely foolish and obnoxious and threatening even back then while people were having their
- 21:53Boris Yeltsin feasts it was not good and it was it wasn't arrogant overbearing Russia that we
- 22:02had to deal with and not not only Estonia basically all countries that had been occupied
- 22:14by the Soviet Union had that same issue and then of course there were those who chose the
- 22:19vassal path and then there were those who were deemed as enemies how did you navigate that as
- 22:24foreign minister you were foreign minister for a little less than two years before you left and
- 22:30became an opposition politician but was there a was there a well I had only one goal I mean I
- 22:38didn't really give it to him about them I came in since I had unlike the rest of the
- 22:45foreign policy establishment had been convinced that Estonia had to join the European Union
- 22:51and because everyone just wanted to join NATO and I had concluded from my time studying things
- 23:01and talking to people that there was no way Estonia would get into the
- 23:05international without being in the European Union because of the
- 23:09Russophilic opposition of Germany France and and the UK at the time plus some other countries
- 23:18and I realized that if were we to become members of the European Union they could no longer
- 23:25exercise their veto and NATO because that would be vetoing a fellow EU member which
- 23:32not only is not done but secondly would bring political disaster and so I focused on that
- 23:39and secondarily on getting into NATO when Russia really was not I mean we don't really care
- 23:46about Russia except when it's obnoxious it's not it's not we don't know it's kind of like so what
- 23:53you know let them do their thing it's when they become obnoxious that we have to be concerned with
- 23:59and the the EU and NATO the joining of EU and of the EU and NATO happened simultaneously in 2004
- 24:06or at least in the same year is that right and then yeah and then you took on the euro as a currency
- 24:15seven years after that in 2011 the first former Soviet Union former Soviet state to take on
- 24:22that's the way that stops out let's let's eliminate the term former Soviet Union we were
- 24:27merely occupied but and I would say that 31 years after and this is a best law of mind but 31
- 24:36years after we reestablished independence I don't want to ever hear the term former Soviet Republic
- 24:43in 1976 I was I graduated already Columbia University and I read the newspaper I read the
- 24:55New York Times every day there were lots of articles about Germany but 31 years after World War
- 25:02II no one ever ever said the former Nazi Reich of Germany when writing about the Vitsav
- 25:11Sundar or the economic wonder no one ever talked about France as formerly Nazi occupied France
- 25:18we the the this is a zombie state and we I don't like zombies as the former Soviet Union is a term
- 25:29that I will not count in it is is Putin resurrecting the zombie he well being one yes I would say
- 25:43that it not in the concrete sense of exactly the Soviet Union but the I mean many ways it could
- 25:52make the case that he wants to resurrect is the Russian Empire in its 1913 borders and certainly
- 25:58with all of the trappings of empire what were your dealings with him as president well mostly I
- 26:04overlap with with the Dmitry Medvedev or Dima the dim as I call him not with Putin I mean we
- 26:13recall that there was this kind of fate to switch yeah just explain that to people who aren't across
- 26:19it well I mean because there was a limitation the true term limit for the president
- 26:28of Russia at the time and once your two terms were up you had to leave and so Putin basically
- 26:35made his prime minister Dmitry Medvedev president for one term and and in the meantime continue
- 26:44to be president I mean in terms of a in terms of the person who called their shots but then you had
- 26:51a kind of fake president there named Dmitry Medvedev who was quite a lightweight I would say
- 27:00and didn't make decisions himself so it was just kind of a puppet but that his term overlap with
- 27:07my term in terms of direct dealing I mean I met him yes but never have a long long sort of
- 27:14negotiating discussion with him the I'm interested in what you thought that he and Medvedev were
- 27:22doing at the time and what their ambitions were for Russia if you look if you look up your profile
- 27:29on on the encyclopedia Britannica what one of the sentences in your entry is that your critics
- 27:36who had expressed concerns about your foreign policy experience as president were silenced by
- 27:42your management of Estonia's difficult relations with neighboring Russia what does that mean
- 27:48I have no idea why would there be critics my entire background was in foreign policy by that time
- 27:59so well I mean I don't know I mean manage not to get invaded that's pretty good when your
- 28:05neighbor of Russia I mean given that during my presidency they invaded both Georgia
- 28:12and they invaded invaded Ukraine what did you do when they invaded Georgia let's take that first
- 28:21well that's it well that was one of the more interesting episodes in that I
- 28:27well first of all the day before I was called by Misha Shakhishvili someone who I had been
- 28:33advising for a while and he said he's going in and I said I said don't do that he said we have
- 28:39to respond I said don't do that I mean I realized it's hard but don't do that anyway so next day the
- 28:46war started I was called by the Polish president the late lek Kaczynski and he was boiling man he said
- 28:54let's do something let we have to let's make a protest and I said great so we we worked out
- 29:01statement strongly and condemning all this and other East European countries signed it
- 29:08and it had no effect none whatsoever no one even noticed so the next two days later he calls
- 29:15me back and he said this is ridiculous what are we going to do and I sort of flippantly said just
- 29:22because I know what to say because I mean on the one hand I wasn't surprised by the lack of
- 29:28attention to what these eastern wags were saying on the part of the western countries but on the
- 29:36other hand we need to do something we could always go there and he said I'll pick you up tomorrow
- 29:42morning go away Georgia well to go to Georgia well this was a famous incident we saw so he
- 29:52rounded up the rest of the crew that is to say the well we got the prime minister of
- 29:59Latvia the president of Lithuania and then we flew to Zaparagia which is in southern Ukraine picked up
- 30:11president Yushenko and flew ultimately well we didn't we didn't fly it to Blesi because the
- 30:18Russians wouldn't allow us to enter Georgia airspace or they did not give us permission so we flew
- 30:25to Azerbaijan and then we drove in a caravan to the border and there we had a new car I mean we had
- 30:34a another caravan meeting us and since they were afraid of getting bombed by the Russians we drove
- 30:39down from the mountains mountain pass fortunately in the moonlight without lights to Tbilisi where
- 30:48there was where we got somewhere and it was clock night a clock at night and there was a massive
- 30:54rally and we went and spoke there so you can kind of Google find all those picks what impact did you
- 31:00want to have well to stop the war with some people do argue that our presence probably at least
- 31:07game Russians pause on since they were 40 kilometers out of Tbilisi and could have made it there
- 31:14another day they didn't want to end up fighting with the the Baltic cartel well I think it does
- 31:21well to kill five had to stay probably not probably not a good look even for Putin so what happened
- 31:29after that when you got home and was there a lesson that you took away from the Russian campaign in
- 31:35Georgia well the main lesson was the perfiddy of the western Europeans in the European Union
- 31:43and so at the same time Nikola Sakoze was there and he purposely announced his peace plan which
- 31:52meant that we would end the cooperation agreement with Russia between the EU and Russia which
- 32:01was a big foreign aid program for Russia until the Russian troops left and then six weeks later
- 32:10with the meeting of the prime ministers of the European Union he himself argued that the
- 32:17cooperation agreement must be restored and the East European said well he hasn't gotten the
- 32:23troops out your program it's your treaty and he forced it through and came out himself and saying
- 32:31thank god common sense prevailed one of the more ridiculous moments of my career as president
- 32:38but but he has been convicted of corruption so I surprised so wait the French president insisted
- 32:47that Russia but Russia's deals be re-honored just six weeks after the end of hostilities which
- 32:54weren't even really over when Russia operated Georgia it was the Russian cooperation agreement
- 33:04that was contingent upon removal of Russian troops I mean 14 years later they're still there
- 33:11they never left but his deal was contingent the agreement was contingent upon the departure
- 33:17of Russian troops which they have not done but that was his great coup but it didn't last for long
- 33:23so were you able to talk to president Sakoze about that at that time I was so disgusted I didn't want
- 33:30to ever see him again do you think Putin took a lesson from that yeah I think you saw that
- 33:38no those westerners they're so stupid they won't do anything which was in fact true since
- 33:44shortly thereafter with the Obama administration the US initiated its reset program once again
- 33:52showing the naivete of the west and of course he got a further was further bolstered by the
- 33:59lack of any serious response to this massive violation of the of the whole post war World War
- 34:082 order when he invaded and incorporated Crimea I mean he just got a little tutting there and
- 34:16things got a little more serious after they shot down a civilian airliner and the Malaysian
- 34:22airliner MH 17 even then there was there was one of these interesting UK moments where
- 34:34now the the cabinet meets at 10 Downing Street and then when the cabinet leaves then across the
- 34:41street from 10 Downing Street all the paparazzi are lined up and one of the paparazzi had with a
- 34:50big telephone lens managed to capture a picture of a document that was under the arm of a minister
- 34:58which said roundly condemn everything the Russians have done in the loudest and strongest of
- 35:05terms point two do absolutely nothing except no policies that would in any way affect Russian
- 35:13investment the UK I mean so now this was no longer perfidious France it was perfidious Albion
- 35:22you know the the joke about a British an English revolution or an English demonstration chant
- 35:31which goes what do we want incremental change when do we want it as soon as is convenient for everybody
- 35:37you mentioned the Obama reset you were you a president when Obama was elected what what did you
- 35:46make of his election what did you make of the guy initially well I mean I was quite impressed
- 35:52and certainly I thought it was a milestone in US history and that the United States I thought
- 35:59this was this one of the great moments of American history in that after centuries of racism that
- 36:07a black man could be elected president as we've seen subsequently he was a two term president
- 36:15but what followed him was a resurgence of white nationalism that I never would have imagined
- 36:24and his administrations attitude towards world affairs in striking the Iran deal and pulling off
- 36:33the what he claimed was this reset with Russia the criticisms that people make of
- 36:39that was also the red line about and serious of chemical weapons yes and the pivot to Asia did you
- 36:47know the criticism of the Obama administration is that it was a bit polyanna or naive about
- 36:51real politics who did you share that view well over time yes I mean I had much higher hopes
- 36:58and he had a fairly good cabinet ash Carter was one of the smartest defense ministers or
- 37:05secretaries the defense that there has been I didn't think very highly of his foreign secretaries
- 37:14or secretaries of state department but I mean I thought Carrie was exceptionally weak and he
- 37:24continues to be that I think extremely naive and sort of polyannaish the main thing with Obama is
- 37:33that he really couldn't care less about foreign affairs and his motto on foreign affairs was again
- 37:38to quote him don't do stupid shit which actually was translated into don't do anything
- 37:46what did you make of his pivot to Russia and did you think that that was an overture that was
- 37:50worth making or did you think that was ignorance or naivety and did you talk to him about it
- 37:57well you actually had a pivot to Asia not the Russia sorry the the the reset in Russia and the
- 38:04but the reset well I think that was part and parcel of the pivot to Asia is that well I mean he said
- 38:10that Russia is a junior varsity team which maybe in fact be true but nonetheless I mean it meant
- 38:19that we don't really have to pay attention to Russia because they're so insignificant in there
- 38:24and the real threat to the United States is China which is probably also true yeah
- 38:30by many accounts that pissed off Putin yes well that did but I mean the problem that we have I
- 38:37mean someone wisely said that Russia is a hurricane China's climate change and I mean in the long
- 38:46term we will all have to deal I mean why am I telling an Australian but China is strategically
- 38:57and for forever Russia is a country that basically makes itself important by being a pain in the
- 39:09ass there's a lot of focusing on the one biggest own country it goes around and evades its
- 39:14neighbors I mean this is I mean the I mean I don't even want to go into the psychology of all
- 39:20of this but it certainly I think affects more than simply the current leader there's an
- 39:26argument that one he is in the west told us that the you know this is an understandable reaction
- 39:33on Russia's pot to the west's bungling of the end of the Cold War a NATO expansion the demeaning
- 39:41of Putin through lines like Obama's that you just cited that this is hypocrisy on the west's
- 39:48pot because if you look at the the United States I don't buy any that personal NATO did not expand it
- 39:54was the desire of the East European countries that understood the threats that led to their wanting
- 40:03to join first in 1999 Poland Hungary and the Czech Republic and later on we joined this was not
- 40:14that NATO was oh we're gonna we want to go out there it was the opposite it was trying to convince
- 40:19countries that we should be part of I mean that as as sharing those same values of liberal democracy
- 40:27that we what would like to be in NATO that that's that kind of that's a nonsense trope that I
- 40:34basically consider anyone who takes that picks that up from Putin as a Putin shield because it has
- 40:40no value to it whatsoever and there are a bunch of American academics pushing this though advise
- 40:47them all to read Andre Kuzarev's tweet or Andre Kuzarev's interview just yesterday Andre Kuzarev
- 40:55was the part minister of Russia under Boris Yeltsin the first and last civilized Russian foreign
- 41:01minister since 1917 but I mean a genuine sort of person of the intellectual far to fairs
- 41:11professor type and he he says this is all nonsense this is just this nonsense that this was never
- 41:20the case that and so he wrote that piece and then I sort of didn't I mean he wrote the interview
- 41:27appeared yesterday and then I wrote and this especially applies to John Mearsheimer and Emma
- 41:36Asperger who's too leading for phone or exponents of this idea to which I was supposed to
- 41:43surprisingly Andre Kuzarev retweeted exactly that's who we had in mind yeah yes yeah
- 41:52Mearsheimer you look that up just my Twitter page you've also tweeted about tens of millions of
- 41:58people being on the brink of encountering the worst two weeks of their lives because of one man's
- 42:03and his nation's psychopathology yeah well that was two hours before the anniversary of the attack
- 42:11I mean in addition to Mearsheimer you know Mearsheimer is the most celebrated academic who holds
- 42:15this opinion but there are many journalists and commentators on the left hand right you have
- 42:20Tucker Carlson on the right on the left you have John Pilger the Australian academic you have
- 42:26Glenn Greenwald the very serious it can be taken seriously it strikes me that I mean they might
- 42:35have some grand geopolitical point on the hypocrisy question if you take it you know if you
- 42:41imagine what it was like being a small country in the western hemisphere during the cold war perhaps
- 42:47if you imagine that you were Honduras or Nicaragua or Cuba but they're not making any sense
- 42:53if you actually take into account the validity of the lives of the people who live in central
- 42:59Europe and Eastern Europe I mean if you believe that Ukrainians and Estonians have agency then
- 43:05their arguments make no sense right but they don't I mean this is part of the Russell centric
- 43:12world view that assumes that all of these which is how which is very common and also in Germany I
- 43:18would say and that the you know that really the deal is ought to be made between Germany and
- 43:24Russia and the decision land there or the countries in between really just our pain of the ass
- 43:29that we have to get rid of and that was certainly pursued by Adolf Hitler in 1939 to 1945
- 43:37and basically an economic terms was pursued by Germany after the fall of the wall bizarrely
- 43:47enough making 10 to 15 times more money off Poland and the checks than they did ever with Russia
- 43:54and then has continued until until February 28th for the 27th I guess three days I mean basically
- 44:03what we did what happened and I think this is something people really ought to think about more
- 44:08deeply but that it is early in the game but something that we call the post-Cold War era which
- 44:15perhaps began somewhere between August 1989 and the closer and Christmas 1991 between the
- 44:26first democratic elections in Poland and the collapse of the Soviet Union formally in 1991
- 44:34December and in between saw the fall of the wall and the end of communist domination of Eastern
- 44:41Europe and and of the Soviet Union all that until February 24th of this year which incidentally
- 44:49is our independent stay in Estonia unfortunately but nonetheless that was the end of the Cold War
- 44:56post-Cold War period and all of the assumptions of the post-Cold War era were thrown out
- 45:03more importantly what was thrown out in some ways was the post-war era since what the post-war
- 45:12era was defined by beginning with the UN Charter and followed up by the least here on this part
- 45:20of the world the Helsinki agreement and later the Paris Charter and the fundamental assumption
- 45:29that you cannot change borders through use of force or even threat of force aggression is a crime
- 45:38I mean that was set in stone at Nuremberg and that that was something that was in fact followed
- 45:46even by the Soviet Union more or less at least in the European side of things of course obviously
- 45:52they did invade Afghanistan and that is over it is now I mean what in what February 24th then
- 46:01was tell the world that in fact yes you can and we will I mean one can and one will change borders
- 46:09through invasion that there are no sanctions really for more crimes and we see you know the use
- 46:18of thermovaric weapons and the indiscriminate bombing of civilian areas I mean we're back to
- 46:29pre May 1945 and so the world has changed and how we're going to deal with that is going to be a
- 46:37problem for all of us and your big neighbor there is kind of looking at this and going hmm what does
- 46:44all of this mean and I would say it is certainly in the interest of Australia that the the transatlantic
- 46:55alliance show to show the Russians but thereby also to China that changing borders through military
- 47:06aggression is a no go yes you're right to point to the fact that a lot of the concern in Australia
- 47:14is about the robustness of military alliances and stability as they pertain to China and concern
- 47:22about whether or not Beijing will be taking signals from what's happening in Ukraine and could
- 47:27potentially make a move of its own everyone's looking at Taiwan closely but why do you just before
- 47:34we move on why do you make February 24th the date of the end of the post-Cold War era
- 47:40because that's the day at 5.30 in the morning Ukraine time that Russian made it
- 47:48February 20th oh right okay yes of course I thought you were talking about the cancellation of
- 47:53Nord Stream or or Germany doing something is there how what do you make of that came on the 20s
- 47:58that came later or somewhat I mean Germany I mean the first really big response was the 180
- 48:03degree turn I mean actually a senior German officer told me last week the 540 degree turn in
- 48:10German foreign policy after February 24 in which all of shawts basically trashed 50 years of
- 48:17ospolytyk their whole attitude of lundeldurchar hundel are changed through trade oh we'll just
- 48:25trade a lot with the Russians and they will become just like us democratic and human rights respecting
- 48:31yes it's a funny argument isn't it we get that yeah yeah it's convenient that that argument
- 48:40both makes you rich and also is a way of cleansing your conscience of doing business with with
- 48:48tyrants it serves multiple purposes I hear people say that the Western European response shows
- 48:54that they do have a spine do you not see it that way we'll see too early to tell to quote
- 49:00Joe in line right you know the line Joe in line yeah yeah whatever what do you think of the
- 49:09French revolution yes to early detail yeah that's probably a powerful nonetheless I look it's
- 49:17two weeks it's now two weeks and five hours since they invaded we'll see if this is what
- 49:25the results will be but in any case it will be very difficult from now on to really make that case
- 49:31my concern now is that any whatever the slightest concessions are they will immediately try to
- 49:41the west was it oh okay listen well sorry about that least action you but now we won't
- 49:47it was February 22nd by the way that Nord Stream was was frozen so that's why I got confused by
- 49:52the date it was the couple of days before the invasion that Germany cancelled cancelled that
- 49:56so it's sort of back to front but so suppose we bungle this Thomas and the you know that at least
- 50:03Putin gets out of this in in a manner that he regards as having been worth it whatever that means
- 50:12are the Baltic states at risk are the Baltic states at risk well you know one of the
- 50:26members of NATO membership and in fact why Ukraine wanted to be member join NATO is that we have
- 50:34Article 5 and so an attack on the Baltic states would be basically put onsk and Thomsk and
- 50:42there could also kind of in a bad position like they wouldn't exist I guess the fear the fear is
- 50:50that Putin doesn't believe that the U.S. will go all out on Russia if Estonia is invented but now
- 50:58that the problem is well first I would just basically say where the West Berlin of this era
- 51:05well the problem is that if the United States or any member of NATO vetoes article 5 that would be
- 51:11the end of the alliance because soon as article 5 fails what he just wants then no one will
- 51:20trust it anymore so I mean if you so what is keeping the alliance together is this fear that well
- 51:28if we don't keep it together then we're all alone each one of us right but if you had an
- 51:34isolationist president in the White House if you had a Donald Trump in the White House then he
- 51:38may well say well I'd rather lose the alliance than start world war three Estonia can go to
- 51:43Russia it's true well this is why I mean you know these are kind of the things you have to deal
- 51:50with in Baltics right but right now we don't have that we do not have that situation and as long as
- 51:56we don't have that situation I'm not going to speculate about it hmm what's the best thing for
- 52:04the West to do now I mean what's the sort of best what's the best card to play
- 52:09well I was certainly armed Ukraine to the teeth with drones and I'm looking here right now just
- 52:19it just happens in my Twitter feed seeing a video of apparently by Raktar drones absolutely
- 52:27destroying a Russian tank column just blowing it up so that's what they need more drones more
- 52:39Western assistance and of course if we have what what I mean what is what is getting bad of course
- 52:50is that the Russian military defense yesterday admitted they had used a thermobaric weapon which is
- 53:00probably one of the cruelest most disgusting weapons sort of nuclear weapons just explain what
- 53:07thermobaric weapons do they well they're they suck all of the oxygen out of your lungs for an
- 53:19eradious of 500 meters just if you use it then everyone dies in the area yeah it's totally
- 53:26indiscriminated it's a it's a sort of a a bomb of terrorism and of course you use the cluster
- 53:32weapons has been used the cluster weapons also banned have been used massively in residence
- 53:38against residential areas I mean we're talking serious war crimes and there are a number of
- 53:42initiatives already to initiate war crime a war crimes tribunal against Russia I think that's
- 53:50that must be done absolutely and I have already seen that the Germans have initiated investigations
- 53:58the Spanish there was a mission another initiative that at the international court of justice to
- 54:10would sign on by 39 countries including my own this will come I mean I think we may need a special
- 54:18number why not hold it in a number I mean I think that's where we are heading do we know we're
- 54:26the thermobaric weapon went off it basically I mean if people don't haven't heard about these
- 54:31things that they they basically suck as Thomas said they basically suck all of the oxygen out of
- 54:36the air and then ignite it so that your lungs get decompressed you suffocate and then and then the
- 54:41whole thing explodes horrendous for civilians completely indiscriminate do we know where it was
- 54:47Thomas we don't know the Russian I mean this was the Russian M.O.D. said they had used it and
- 54:55this was reported by the UK Ministry of Defense you can just google UK Ministry of Defense and
- 55:04thermobaric what's the what's the likeliest I've asked what what card we should play what do you
- 55:10think the likeliest outcome of all of this is I mean just in terms of whether or not it turns
- 55:16into an Afghanistan style quagmire whether Putin gets frustrated and you know does a Grozny
- 55:23on Kiev whether he pulls off some kind of unexpected victory can you gaze into your crystal ball
- 55:34well his first of all I mean one thing that where he's completely off and it shows his his the
- 55:39problems if you're run if you're a dictator is that he said oh well we'll just replace the
- 55:45president and then you know the whole thing will be solved which was what the initial plan was
- 55:50not understanding that you know you can you I mean it's a lensky is yes a unifying figure but without
- 55:58a lensky and any any puppet I mean Ukraine is not going to stop fighting you know after all of
- 56:05this you think the Ukrainians I mean why would anyone think that the Ukrainians would not keep fighting
- 56:10to the death then of course after all of the atrocities which we see every day coming in they're
- 56:16not going to give in and they will fight to the death and that is just the way it's going to be
- 56:24and so I don't see a way out of it as long as there are Russians on on Ukrainian territory Russian
- 56:31army units I mean the thing to keep in mind is that ethnic Russians are are the primary
- 56:36targets at least in areas like Kharkiv but they just happen to be Ukrainian citizens right so it's
- 56:42kind of like you know Japanese fought in the US army and Germans fought in the US army during
- 56:48World War II I mean that's the same thing and they were furious fighters ferocious fighters
- 56:56and so that's that's one path that he's really screwed up on and that's just going to be a
- 57:03problem for them he can level Ukraine creating a massive massive refugee crisis in Europe since
- 57:13unlike Syria and other refugee crisis or at least the main one 2015 in in Europe these are not
- 57:24Syrians coming across the sea these are Ukrainians who I mean people from a country that borders
- 57:32for European Union countries Poland Slovakia Hungary and Romania so Landroot and if you have a
- 57:40Ukrainian passport you have visa free travel you don't have to apply for asylum and on top of that
- 57:48the European Union wisely actually announced the policy saying that anyone with a Ukrainian passport
- 57:56escaping the war can stay at work and live in the European Union for three years and we'll see
- 58:03what happens just it was a very smart move so there are two million at this point I mean an
- 58:10increasing by the by the hundreds of thousands every every day I think you know we had we had
- 58:194,000 two days ago 5,000 yesterday in Estonia and so we anticipate it's going to keep going up
- 58:28how are they getting to Estonia bus I mean you're the end of the line really you know you you leave
- 58:36Ukraine you you need to really want to go to Estonia but I mean well Estonia is a I mean it's by far
- 58:44the most successful post-communist country so it has a really it has a stellar reputation we're
- 58:51not calling it post-soviet remember Thomas I said post-communist I'm just teasing yeah no I just
- 58:59mean yeah I mean you you need to you know you cross through a lot of other EU countries before you
- 59:04get to Estonia well I mean you have on the way if you come to Poland then there's
- 59:11Lithuania and then there's Lithia and then there is Estonia in the back you can keep
- 59:17going to Finland if you really want but you need a boat don't you Estonia but you need a boat
- 59:23don't you or is there a bridge no there's a boat yeah it's it's 80 kilometers well you just
- 59:30get on a boat it's not it's not expensive to take a ferry from Estonia to Finland incidentally what's
- 59:39the border with Russia like what what is there if I if I'm in Estonia and I drive to the Russian
- 59:44border what do I see you see a barbed wire fence where there is but the bulk of it is water so
- 59:53yeah but there are land there are land crossings yeah what we have built we have built an
- 1:00:00extension is there basically we have a a barbed wire fence and then the perimeter of about
- 1:00:09I don't know 500 meters I mean the sort of a sort of I don't know where less maybe 200 meters
- 1:00:17and then of course cameras everywhere so we see whenever someone is coming over the border
- 1:00:23and there's a road you can drive between Estonia and Russia well there's several border crossings
- 1:00:30hmm is it armed is it is there a military presence at all not right now we have we have
- 1:00:40non-military sort of police-based border guard I mean that's kind of the civilized thing to do yeah
- 1:00:49if we fast forward 20 years into the future do you think that border looks the same as it does now
- 1:00:57um minimally minimally I mean one I mean the the the border fence is there in its current state more
- 1:01:11out of a concern for smuggling illegal immigration I mean I I mean a Russian
- 1:01:22Babushka living in Estonia gets a larger pension than the average salary in Russia and that
- 1:01:28was before the massive devaluation so you're a variable croissants if you're a Russian Babushka
- 1:01:38and you go to Russia right now you get your pensions in euros I'm sure I would much rather be
- 1:01:48in Estonia than than many other places I can assure you but you're not worried that that
- 1:01:54border will someday be militarized well I mean that's up to Russia that really is up to Russia
- 1:02:05I mean if it starts behaving um continues to behave it the way it is there will be a lot more
- 1:02:13pressure to to militarize the border right now we don't do that but I suspect that would I mean
- 1:02:22it's basically the same kind of border as all of the other countries of NATO that border Russia I
- 1:02:30mean right but I mean I sort of offense offense basically I mean you know one suggestion I mean
- 1:02:37you know I mentioned earlier the question is whether or not Putin believes that the US has the
- 1:02:44stomach for World War III in order to defend Estonia from Russian aggression and part of the
- 1:02:52response to that currently is the suggestion from some hawks that we need to emphasize to Russia
- 1:02:58that NATO is still coherent by arming NATO's eastern flank would it be a good idea to send troops
- 1:03:05from a number of different NATO countries to be stationed there permanently well temporarily at
- 1:03:11least in Estonia facing Russia I mean currently under the under the under the Russian NATO or
- 1:03:18NATO Russia founding act of NATO voluntarily said they would not put any substantial troops or
- 1:03:25or material in the countries that have joined the NATO since 1997 and the Ukraine war doesn't change
- 1:03:35that commitment for you well I think it's become kind of unoperative the American sector alone
- 1:03:44in Germany had 400,000 US troops now I mean if actually if you just I mean given that okay I don't
- 1:03:52know how many people lived in them how big the American sector was there were three or there were
- 1:03:57four actually I mean it was UK France US and the Soviet Union now there were 400,000 troops to say
- 1:04:05just the West just in West Germany which had a population of what 63,000 63 million that proportion
- 1:04:13to Estonia would mean 8,000 US troops just to be proportional and that's underestimating because
- 1:04:21we probably would have more brits in French too I don't think that's really the way anyone will
- 1:04:28be willing to go but certainly the NATO Russia founding act is dead in the water and in terms of
- 1:04:36permanent stationing of NATO troops I think that will be inevitable and I think and bringing
- 1:04:42considerably more in terms of weaponry and armaments here is all and also in the cards or should be
- 1:04:50yeah it seems sort of quaint to abide by an old NATO agreement with Russia when Russia is
- 1:04:55stampeding across the sovereign nation yes well I mean it kind of loses all of us meaning
- 1:05:02Thomas I won't keep you any longer you've been generous with your time and your ideas do you
- 1:05:08want to uh do you want to cast your mind into the future what let's talk about Estonia specifically
- 1:05:14just to end with what where do you want Estonia to be when my kids are grown up how well they're
- 1:05:22your kids okay well 20 years from now I would say that there is an alliance of liberal
- 1:05:35democracies that because of the digitization of the world is no longer dependent upon geography the
- 1:05:41way it traditionally has been one of the one of the the massive changes that we have not really
- 1:05:50appreciated sufficiently is that the era of kinetic war ended in 2007 with the world's first
- 1:05:58visible cyber attacks against my country so I mean the any history of cyber war will begin with
- 1:06:04Estonia because before that it was old sub-Rosa and but one of the results of the of kinetic war
- 1:06:16you know we're leaving leaving aside currently Ukraine but say war between between a developed
- 1:06:24countries will be cyber you see in an Australia you see it in the US and you see it in across
- 1:06:33across Europe is that distance no longer matters Newton's second law force equals mass times
- 1:06:40acceleration which is the basis of all kinetic threats loses all meaning if you don't have mass
- 1:06:46you don't have acceleration because that brawl acceleration is distance divided by time square
- 1:06:53in other words tiling tokyo torino toronto they're all equidistant one impact of that is that
- 1:07:05our defense alliance is no longer need to be geographically determined I mean and NATO
- 1:07:12after all the Stanford North Atlantic Treaty organization and why is it the North Atlantic Treaty
- 1:07:18organization well precisely because tank logistics bomber range fighter or bomber refueling
- 1:07:27fighter range troop logistics all of those things that doesn't that becomes meaningless in
- 1:07:35a in the in the world we have entered so there's no reason why there should not be a strong defensive
- 1:07:42alliance that incorporates the countries of Europe that are liberal democracies the western hemisphere
- 1:07:50those that are serious liberal democracies not to mention Taiwan and Japan and South Korea and
- 1:07:58New Zealand and Australia and whoever else qualifies as a genuine liberal democracy I would ask
- 1:08:05actually as for a last question on my part the only question on my part is why is New Zealand not
- 1:08:10sanctioning in Australia is there is a sense in New Zealand New Zealand thinks of itself as being
- 1:08:20well look the critic of New Zealand says it's because New Zealand has no guts and no principles
- 1:08:26it's a squishy little country that wants to appease everybody and please everybody the the
- 1:08:32ally of New Zealand says that New Zealand has a progressive outward looking vision of the world
- 1:08:39that is expansive and non-doctrine air non-dogmatic and non-bossy attitude towards things and is
- 1:08:47an inclusive and you know semi neutral comfortable place those would be the two rival ways of
- 1:08:57describing that that position and I think Australia sees itself more as the mate I mean it's
- 1:09:04may sound silly to a European or an American but within the context of the South Pacific and the
- 1:09:08Asia Pacific as a major power that has that has to sort of be the the deputy sheriff of the western
- 1:09:15world in this area and has to be stronger and more clear headed and have a harder more principled
- 1:09:23stand about things I think that would be the well that's certainly the impression I have had
- 1:09:28always of Australia I mean given its participation in in the past 120 years in all kinds of well
- 1:09:37that passed 100 years not all of it very good I mean very pleasing to Australians obviously in terms
- 1:09:44of the use of Australian troops but we're one world we're two Afghanistan yeah in Iraq I mean
- 1:09:54in Iraq I mean I would say basically people see Australians as a responsible a responsible
- 1:10:02country that realizes that you need to do your share and that's that's really kind of the image
- 1:10:08but you know I was just surprised when I just yesterday looked at a map of the countries that
- 1:10:14were participating in in sanctions and there was Australia but no New Zealand I mean I think I
- 1:10:23think Thomas that may also just be an accident of which political party happens to be in power in
- 1:10:28which country there have been conservative New Zealand governments in the past in the 80s and
- 1:10:34I think 90s which probably would have done it at the moment they happen to have a left wing progressive
- 1:10:40government led by a very charismatic young woman who is sort of renowned for being a conciliator and
- 1:10:46so you know maybe things things could have been different well maybe they should look at videos
- 1:10:50of what's happening to civilians yeah yeah it's great to talk to you take care of yourself take
- 1:10:57care of your your country and hopefully we'll cross paths in the future take care okay cheers bye
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