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The Favorites - CFB Week 1 Betting Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

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  Speaker 1: one eight hundred gambler dot net in West Virginia. Welcome
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: to the Favorites the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network.
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: I am Shad Mellman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: I am joined as I am every week by my bff,
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: my companion, my compadre professional better Simon Hunter, Chad Brother.
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: We we did it. We ate the appetizers right, We
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: got done the Week zero preseason football. Finally here for
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: the real meal, the Week one college football slate, some
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: real ranked opponents and then not even what nine days
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: now NFL kicks off Bills Rams. It's it's all happening there.
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: It's been a long off season, but we're here. Can
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: I tell you something please? I don't know what's going on,
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: but the last two nights I have woken up with
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: such anxiety dreams in the middle of the night. Can
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: we just start doing something that lives up to the expectation,
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: because I don't know if I can take the build
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: up to the season anymore. I think that's what it means.
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: That's hilarious. We're such different worlds. Where I woke up
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: to a sweat where I thought I bet whatever it was.
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: I think it was the Eagles Week one, and I
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: was like in my dream telling myself, No, you said
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: you're gonna put the lines. So it just show us
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: how me and chatted. Very different worlds right now. All right, Well,
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: guess what, people who never sweat. Two of our buddies,
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: Stucky Colin Wilson, hosts of the Big Bets on Campus podcast.
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: Big Bets on Campus is essentially the original podcast for
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: the Action Network. These two guys have garnered such a
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: loyal audience, will get after the bleep voicemails from fans
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: who were in rare form already this past weekend. Your
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: week zero, Big Bets on Campus Download the podcast. Watch
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: the live show Big Bets on Campus with Colin Stuckey
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: at ten thirty a m. Eastern Saturday morning, watching in
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: the Action Network app. Go download. We finally got week one.
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: We got ranked games, ranked teams and big games. We
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: got underdogs that they're both on. We got games Thursday.
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: We got games Friday, we got games Saturday. Colin, you're smiling.
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: Stucky has not cracked since we got onto the zoom. Well,
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: I mean there's a difference thing. He looks like he
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: is in process. I'm trying to figure out a bet.
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: I think I'm done hitting lines until maybe Saturday morning.
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: So when you're in process and you've got it all
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: up here in your brain, you're not paying attention to anything.
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: You were just laser focused on winning that bet. So
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: that's what looks like Stucky's doing right now. Stucky, I
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: won't stop looking at lines until, say they kick off
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: on Saturday. Afraid to sleep and um, that's what That's
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: what football is like. You're afraid to go to sleep
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: and you might miss a line. Now, I also want
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: to promote Action Network podcast, right I don't know. We're
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: back next week's for NFL, And I want to correct
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: something Simon said. He said it last week was the advertiser.
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: I disagree. Last week it was like the house bread,
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: and this week is the appetizers. Good appetizers. If you
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: do get Sunday night and Monday night college football, it's like,
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: you know, shrimp cocktail. We got some maybe some lobster,
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: some some good seafood apps for the table. Because it's
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: still not the same waking up on Sunday on your
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: couch without NFL at one. So that's the entree in
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: two weeks. So I'll throw all the shout out for
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: action over podcasts as well. Listen, I love giving, I
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: love pimping every podcast we have. They're all fantastic. Listen
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: to them all. How many bets, Stucky, Colin, You said
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: you're done, so let me start with Stucky, how many
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: bets do you think you will make in week one?
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: I mean probably five or six live bets, and then
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: I would say, I don't know, maybe you end up
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: with like twelve to fourteen total. You have to remember
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: that Week one is loaded like with a lot of
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: marquee games, but it's still not our full slate that
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: will get you know, in a month or now, because
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: about there's like I don't know, thirty count how many
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: thirty games where thirty FPS teams are playing SCS teams,
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: And I just don't dabble this early in the year
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: in the FCS market. Um, just how am I going
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: to keep up with everything? I have to draw the
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: line somewhere, So yeah, it won't be as big of
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: a card as I'll have, you know, say a month
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: from now, when you have even more FPS verus FPS matchups,
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: but probably end up with like twelve to thirteen games. Yeah,
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: for me, every week it's about ten to twelve games.
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: And a long time ago, I switched up my capping strategy.
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: I would bet on ninety games and I would wonder
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: why at the end of the day I only had
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: plus minus twenty in my bank account. And about five
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: years ago, I would say, I thought, you know what,
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: I'm just gonna focus in by Tuesday with my process,
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna identify about twenty games that have hit the
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: flag from everything from a stats analytics, from the way
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: the market is reacting to what I know, what I
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: don't think the public knows. And then that gets shaved
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: down to about ten by Wednesday, and then Saturday morning
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: is all about, you know, reflexes to the market, right
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: some things. Sometimes these things happen. Kids come down with COVID.
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: We dealt with that for a few years. We have
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: first half suspensions the first week every year. So you know,
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: a long time ago, I decided I'm gonna shave it
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  Speaker 1: down to about ten plays, and I'm gonna put all
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: my money into those ten plays. So if you're a
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: hundred dollar gambler or a ten thousand dollars. You want
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: to have that in circulation. But I like a lot
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: less games. That's a lot less management. And now I'll
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: just let the market tell me on Saturday morning where
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: to go, and then the live bets just come and go.
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: As I see every game you guys are betting. One
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: more shout out is tracked in the Action Network Gap.
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: Go Follow Colin, Go Follow Stucky. Uh. Stucky has like
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: nine thousand followers in the app. Colin has like sixty.
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: Are you jealous, Colin? Well, technically I think he was.
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: He was here one day before me, so I guess
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: I give him the nod on thirty thousand. But you know,
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: it's funny. It's like I was on Vanderbilt, he was
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: on a Why. So it's funny to follow us both
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: because then you can find out why Stucky he's like
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: sub tweeting me at eleven pm at night, you know,
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: but like he's always got a bet against me, So
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: that that's that would help if you followed us both.
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: You guys have one game. I went through your bets
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: in the app that you have tracked so far. You've
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: got a couple of games that are the same. One
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: of them is a Thursday game. You also got a
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: game and underdog, not an underdog, but sort of like,
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: you know, one of those off the radar that only
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: professional betters would think about games. Will get to both
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: of those, Simon. I don't want to hug the conversation here.
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: Do you have any questions you want to ask before
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: we get to it. I know you want to ask
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: a real betting question, whereas I kind of want to
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: leave the table a little bit. I would say just
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: respect to stuck in Colin on their willpower. I mean,
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: for me week when NFL, I have hundreds of more
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  Speaker 1: bets and I would normally make just because of how
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: long the off season is. It's like some more things.
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: You'll just wake up. You'll see a number moved half
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: a point in the direction you wanted to even though
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: you just bet it the other day, you have to
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: bet it again. So it's just I don't know. I
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: think they're teaching people get lesson here where you don't
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: need to go crazy. It's a long season, right, take
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: take your time money management. You don't need to bet
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: off twenty five games or whatever, thirty games this upcoming weekend,
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: pick your spots, and like suck you was saying, the
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: live thing for me is so huge in college football,
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: where not that these kids are all so young, but
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: it's just different. Right. We saw in that Nebraska Northwestern
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: game the momentum shifted after that onside kick, and I
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: feel like in college football you're always looking for those values.
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: So to me with the live betting, I love betting
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: the number, like you know, plus eleven, plus seventeen, wherever
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: you might get do always throw a little on the
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: money line too, because it's just we've seen it time
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: and time again. The kids feel the pressure like you
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: wouldn't believe it. So I love live betting college football
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: more so the NFL and NFL. You can get sucked
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: in a little bit little trapped college football. It's it's
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: kind of fun where so much random things can happen.
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: You can hit a number, next plays a pick six.
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: It's just it's very different than betting the other sports.
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: There's a big difference between NFL and college football handicapping.
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: If you're like, if you don't do both and you
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: don't know the difference. College football hides their injuries like
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: Steve Sarkisian is not even putting out a depth chart
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: for Texas this week. All right, I mean, I mean,
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: and in the NFL you have to have a clear
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: injury report. So in college football you treat it like
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: the stock market, which is you buy the rumor, you
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: sell the news, and that applies way more collegurable than
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: it does NFL. Right, all right, let's get to some
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: marquee matchup. Stuck. I saw in the app in the
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: Action Network GAP, you and Colin both had a play
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: on West Virginia pit a play that I followed. That's
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: Thursday night, seven pm ESPN. Give me your take. Yeah,
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: I had the under under fifty one and a half,
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: tig you can still find that out there. Obviously a
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: key number in at a football. In general, college football
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: also numbers, so chop around if there's a fifty one
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: or fifty one a half out there, you don't want
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: to take the fifty and a half. But you know,
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: if you look at Pitt's offense last year, they were
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: incredible with Kenny Pickett and offensive coordinator Mark Whipple. They
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: threw the ball all over the field and they did
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: it with great success. But who was the head coach
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: patent Our Doozy, and there was they were never philosophically
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: line or Doozy just wants to run the ball, play conservative,
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: lean on his defense, and he let Whip Whipple have
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: the reins last year. Whipples since moved on, gone to
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: Nebraska and incomes a new offensive coordinator that is just
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: like Nardoozy. And by the way, they lost pick it
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: to the Steelers, and they lost the blitniakoff winner Addison
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: to USC their best receiver. So I think they're they're
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: gonna lean on their run game, They're gonna lean on
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: their defense, going to play a lot slower, more conservative
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: on the other side of the ball. There's a lot
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: of questions that I have with this West Virginia offense.
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: And I don't think can take advantage of the pit defense,
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: really aggressive defense. You've got to kind of beat them deep,
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: and I don't think West Virginia is really capable of
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: doing that. New coordinator a lot of changes, So I
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: think this ends up being a grinder. I think that
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: there's some value on the under The market's not properly
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: accounting for how Pitt is going to play this year. Colin,
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: you got it at fifty four and a half. Yeah,
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: that was put in the about two minutes after I
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: was standing next to Patton our Doozy outside the Weston
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: and Charlotte of Media Days when he told me specifically,
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: we don't want to do anything but run the ball
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: like crazy, and Kadon Slovis is only gonna need to
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: throw when he has to throw. Now, knowing that pit
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: was a top ten tempo last year and Nardoozy now
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: with Frank Signetti coming over from Boston College, he wants
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: to make this a bottom ten tempo team. You know,
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: I mean that was a complete under right away because
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: that number that Oddsmakers put out would have been the
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: total at the end of last year with the old
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: coaching staff. So knowing that in the back of my hand,
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: you know, I just turned around, make the bet put
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: it in. This is why you get in the action
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: app and why you have ninety thousand followers for Stuck
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: in sixty thou for me, because when I hear coach
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: say we're going to slow it down, I'm going to
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: turn around bet and immediately Yeah. And and their offensive
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: coordinator that came over from Boston College had at Boston
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: College last year, had a pro quarterback or a future
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: pro quarterback, Phil Jakovic, who has potential to go to
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: the NFL, and they were one of the slowest teams.
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: I don't want to that this is a perfect This
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: is a match made in heaven. Our Doozy and Signati.
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: They just let's run the ball beat Conservative. So I
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: think it sets up for a good underplay to open
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: up the season. I want to get this Saturday. Just
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: like fifteen games I want to talk about. I'm gonna
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: try to keep it, try to keep it focused Simon.
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: The first game that I want to talk about on Saturday,
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: it's gotta be in Michigan. I want to hear where
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: you guys think of hardball right now. I want to
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: think about what you think of this team's prospects. They
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: are thirty and a half point favorites. Obviously people are
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: expecting to win the game. I don't care if you
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: have an opinion on this game. I know neither of
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: you bet this game. But there's so much talk about Michigan,
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: so much talking about about getting biblical. Do you guys
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: have a take on the quarterback situation at Michigan, how
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: that may play out, and how that could impact Betters
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: over the course of the year. Colling you first, I
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: don't think it has any impacts. I think it's all
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: just white noise. Michigan is going to be as good
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: as they were last year. The two I know, there's
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: two new coordinators, and usually that's a sign that things
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: are going to change. But these two new coordinators are
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: stepping into the shadows of what was run last year.
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: It's gonna keep being run now. They don't. You know,
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: head coaches in college football don't want kids transferring out.
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: Look what dave A Randa did. He announced a starter
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: in spring and Gary Bohannan decides to leave town. If
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: Harbaugh was going to announce Kate mcnam as a starter,
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: Jenji McCarthy would have been out of town. So you know,
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: lip service. You start game one, you start game two,
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: it doesn't matter. They're running the same offenses last year.
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: They're running the same defenses last year. They're gonna be
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: favorite in eleven of twelve games. I think they're gonna
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: be just as effective, and they have a shot to
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: get to college football playoff again. Wow, nobody has said that.
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: There's and we're gonna talk about like who you guys
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: have going to the playoffs, and we'll talk about futures.
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: But I haven't seen one person say they believe Michigan
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: has the horses to get par bag back to the playoff.
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: Jim Harball, I think you mean bow dog Jim, which
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: is what we refer to him on Big Bets on campus.
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: Our listeners will know that maybe our producer will drop
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: the clip in. Now, don't gamble, don't associate with gamblers,
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: abord it like the playing let's check in with bow
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: dog Jim. Look at play at Ohio State, a team
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: that they beat for the first time in a million
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: years last year. So I think of the receivers have
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: just Ronnie Bell goes back from injury, the receiver room
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: could be better and that raises their ceiling because they'll
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: have an excellent offensive line, they'll have an excellent rushing attack.
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: But like you know, to beat the elites, you gotta
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: do a little bit more than run the ball effectively,
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: and we saw that end up biting in the College
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: double playoff. And by the way, just from a betting
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: perspective of a betting nugget, I don't have I make
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: the game about thirty one. But hardball historically loves running
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: it up on inferior opponents in Colorado State basically a
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: sort of Nevada now, like their coach came over a
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: lot of their staff and they're changing offenses, running in
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: an air raid. So it'll be a lot of potential
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: growing pains and then in some uncertainty there. But hardball historically,
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: we'll just he will run this up against inferior opponents
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: in front of the home crowd. But yeah, I think
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: it ultimately miss Michigan ceiling is limited by the fact
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: that I think Ohio State is significantly better than them,
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: and they get to host Michigan in the finale with revenge,
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: and if Michigan doesn't win that game, you don't win
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: the division, you don't go to the Big Ten Championship,
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: you're not going to the college playoff. So, um, Michigan
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: could end up they gotta replace some key defenders that
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: went to the NFL. But they're ceiling on. Offense could
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: be higher, but I just think that O'll hire a
• 15:56
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• 17:39
  Speaker 1: in West Virginia. So talking about my favorite games for
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: earlier Slate, my number one first game I saw when
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: all the schedules came out was the Oregon Georgia game,
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: and I knew right away I was gonna be on
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: Oregon because Georgia you won the national title, they'd be overvalued.
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: Everyone'll be all over room. And then I love when
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: and looked in the action page on the app. It's
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: a public dog Oregon. All the money, all the tickets
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: is coming in on Oregon, and the pros have actually
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: becoming on the other side and taking Georgia. So very
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: interesting to see that the public loves Oregon. The number
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: to me is too big, right, anyone would take that week?
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: I mean, it's week one. These teams aren't what they
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: were last year. We know Oregon gets the recruits right,
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: they have the speed to keep up with the SEC
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: team will be the interesting part. But seventeen and a a
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: half is such a key number to me. I wouldn't
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: hear what your view is on the number, stuck, What what
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: what do you think when you see a seventeen a
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: half plus two ranked teams first week? Don't we always
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: just take that dog? There? Like? Is there really much
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: to this liner? Is there a reason to actually take
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: Georgia in this matchup? No, I don't say it. I
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: mean to me, that doesn't matter to me and might
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: not make the number twelve eight the round thirteen actually
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: a little less than thirteen. So yeah, I jumped on
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: Oregon early in the season. There's a little more uncertainty
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: with some of these teams in college football this year,
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: just the transfer, portal coaching news. So maybe there will
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: be times where I'm not as confident the number, And
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: in that case, if I show value, then I'll say, Okay,
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: is there other reasons why I like this game? And
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: with Oregon I did. I wouldn't take seventeen six and
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: a half. But over seventeen, I jump on Oregon and
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: you get a full I really like this Oregan defense.
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: I love some of the additions they brought in. But
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: they'll be good on the defensive line, will be good
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: at tackle. I mean, this Georgia team, it's gonna kind
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: of to me, it's gonna be like an Alabama situation
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: where they dominate when the National Championship. Lose fifteen guys
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: in the NFL, They're gonna take a little step back.
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: It's gonna take some time now. Their defense is still
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: gonna be excellent. But Oregon has a great offensive line,
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: a guy in bow knicks, a quarterback who won't be
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: afraid to play George at least will make some great
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: plays and leave you scratching your head. But kind of
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: the intangible here is Dan Lanning, the defensive coordinator for
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: Georgia last year, went to Oregon and he's now their
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: head coach. It's call it narrative whatever you want, but
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: he's a human. What do you think he First of all,
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: he knows the team very well. Second of all, it's
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: the first opponent and you win this game. It's probably
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: the biggest game of the season. You have an inside
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: track going to the couch Wall playoffs. I'm sure they
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: spent he spent every waking hour crafting every single possible
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: racling game plan to unleash in this game. Um so.
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: And on the other side, I don't think if George
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: is up big there will be a chance seventeen that
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: they really want to embarrass their well so that there'll
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: be a chance for a back door here as well.
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: Um So, Yeah, I like the number. It might end
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: up being a trendy dog um which you never want
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: to be on. But they does cover sometimes too, and
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: there's too much value to pass up. And I'm curious
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: to see what Landing has lined up here. And yes,
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: George is gonna reload, but there's gotta be some growing
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: pains after all that talent they lost. Colin, you're laughing
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: when Stuff talks about this, Well, no, no, I mean
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: I think he's exact correct. I agree with everything that
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: he said. There's too much familiarity between these two programs.
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: I'm laughing because I actually have a runner texted me
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: in the state of Pennsylvania right now because first half
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: totals just came out and I want the under first
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: half on this game pretty bad. Uh, there's way too
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: much familiarity between these two programs, especially from the coaching perspective.
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: Mario Cristoval did not leave the cupboard empty when it
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: came to the trenches to excellent defensive interior players, maybe
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: the best in the Pac twelve, an offensive line that
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: he was building to compete with the SEC in an
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: eventual playoff game. I don't know how Organs specifically is
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: going to deal with maybe the three best tight ends
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: and all of college football. That's probably why I've spread
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: is seventeen. I make it a lot lower and make
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: it just a dad below fourteen. So yeah, I am
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: a proponent of taking Oregon here, but I think the
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: best bet is the first half under because it's so
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: much familiarity and what you know. I mean, you see
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: this with these teams in Week zero. They come out
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: the first two quarters not sure what they're doing. Adjustments
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: are made at halftime points start to fly. I've seen
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: that with Georgia billion times. I want the first half under.
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: What you seeing the first half under? Add right now
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: twenty six and a half, and I'm told there that
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: this could get to twenty seven and a half, which
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: I would happily wait for. There you go, that's why
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: you listened to the podcast, That's why you get the app,
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: because right now I'm seeing lines for so many different
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: sports books, and I'm also seeing, to your point, Stuck,
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: I'm seeing a seventeen and a half. Just in the
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: state of Connecticut, I'm seeing a seventeen, and I'm seeing
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: a sixteen and a half. So if I want to
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: go get or again plus seventeen and a half, I
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: can still get that right now. Yeah, there's no reason
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: not to. Just you're hurting yourself if you don't have
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: as many outs as possible, and especially with the legal market,
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: now open up these accounts. You don't even have to
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: have money in them at all times if you're just
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: the recreational better betting hunter the game. But open them
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: up with money and take advantage of all the bonuses.
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: And then if you have a bet you really like,
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: it's two, it's really easy to put money in there
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: and then that this line that you have. But take
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: advantage of the bone and give yourself options and out
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: to get the best of the number. If you want
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: to take this a little more serious, because that stuf
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: ads up over time. This is why I got married
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: because my wife's father lives in Arizona, can bet there.
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: My wife's brother lives in Iowa, can bet there. So
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: now I've got a brother in law and father in
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: law running bets for me. Ohio State Notre Dame. Everyone
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: is talking about this Ohio State team, probably the team
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: people expect from the Big Ten to go to the
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: college football Playoff. Notre Dame getting a weird amount of
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: respect from voters for the AP rankings fourteen and a half. Colin,
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: I saw on the APP you took Ohio State minus
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: fourteen and a half. Explain yourself. I don't know what
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: the ceiling of this Ohio State team. I definitely know
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: what the ceiling is of the Notre Dame team. Uh.
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: They don't have any weapons on the outside. There primary
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: weapon is a tight end that is going to get
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: you no more than ten to fifteen yards. Uh. Their
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: quarterback situation is extremely inexperienced. We're studying. I disagree is
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: I don't like Marcus Freeman as a head coach. I
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: think he's the best recruiter in the nation. But I
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: am not sold from an X as a OS perspective.
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: That he is the best defensive coordinator in the nation
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: now a head coach allowing Tommy Greaves to call the
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: place for Notre Dame probably the most conservative offense in
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: the nation. So when the Howse State gets up by fourteen,
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: you're gonna keep running the ball. When Howse State gets
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: up by one, you're gonna keep running the ball. And
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: and the only way Notre Dame hangs around in these
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: games against these marquee programs is, for instance, in the
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: College Football Playoff when savan just decided to sit on
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: the ball with the twenty one point lead because you
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: don't want to embarrass, you know, Notre Dame. I don't
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: understand the Notre Dame love. I get it from the
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: AP voters, I get it from everybody that's involved in
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: the non gambling world. But at the same time, I
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: saw a team that completely was full, that had just
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: had a horseshoe up there butt last year, and covering
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: so many games and having so many turnovers in the
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: second half. They should not have been as good as
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: they were last year, especially in games against Cincinnati Wisconsin.
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: So I think I don't know where Ohio States stopped scoring.
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: Here to tell you the truth, and I don't know
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: how Notre names offense can even try to keep up.
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: That's a that's a aggressive take. Well, Colin said that
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: he only got married so his wife's family can bet
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: for him. But why why not become a polygamist and
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: then you have multiple families that you can benefit from
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: in different states. But I think the line is about right.
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: I make it like seventy before, so I won't be
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: betting this game. But an interesting thing on the Action
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: Network twitter handle, we tweeted out this this quote the
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: other day for Marcus Freeman who said, oh we're seventeen
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: and a half one underdogs. I had no idea I'm
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: going to use that on in our meeting today as
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: as motivation. So I tweeted out after that, I said,
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: here's Mark mark soon an aggressive thing like if there
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: doubts twenty four. You know, he came out and said, oh, well,
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: how are we seventeen and a half point under dogs?
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: Like I assume that he's gonna really try to get
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: in the back door here. Um after he brought it up,
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: which is just a funny. I really want Notre Dame
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: to be the downs twenty four with the ball with
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: like a minute to go and see how aggressive they are.
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: But um, yeah, the big question for me with Ohio
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: so I think this line is about right. I'm a
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: big fan of Freeman. I think that he's the right
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: guy for this job. But the Ohio State is just
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: so good. I mean, it's just Ohio State in Alabama.
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: It's one of those years where I would be surprised
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: if they were not the last two teams standing there.
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: They could end up by the end of the year,
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: depending on if Georgia falls off en be two touchdowns
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: better than everyone else in all of college football. Is crazy,
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: that sounds. But um, the Ohio State where why they're
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: that this much better? I think? And close to Alabama
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: is the higher Jim Knowles the new defensive coordinator. The
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: problem for a higher state the past couple of years
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: has been their defense. It has been a mess. They
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: have had just no structure, no communication. And they bring
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: in know is one of the best defensive coordinators in
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: off college football. We'll see how quickly the talents obviously there,
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: We'll see how quickly he can get every enough to speed.
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: The good news for Knowles is that his last game
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: at Oklahoma State was in the pole game against this
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: Notre Dame team. Um So, that's obviously helps from a
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: preparation standpoint, but the ceiling of this Ohio State team
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: is significantly higher. Not only do you have a Heisman
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: caliber quarterback, but you now have a coordinator, a competent
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: coordinator in Columbus that should get this defense up to speed.
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: I love that game. I just I just even thinking
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: about the prestige of Notre Dame Ohio State. The sun
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: is gonna be setting when they're kicking off. It's just
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: gonna be. That's the bestest college football. So going going
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: through your guys picks, when that jumped out to me,
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: it feels like my guy Collins walking right into a
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: trap here. Florida Utah? What do you what are you
• 27:44
  Speaker 1: thinking here? What do you think? And taking Utah against
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: Florida's Florida really that down? That bad? The game? You
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: just you just pushed his button. Colin is the biggest
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: He's basically Utah lom. He's gonna become a polegamist and
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: Utah making sense now, Yeah, I gotta know what's going
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: on on the Utah though, I mean easy, it feels
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: like an easy bet ring already bet us a couple
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: of times on Florida and the public's with you. Are
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: terrified right now you're bet on Utah when you know
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: the public's gonna keep betting that all week. Apparently everyone
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: hates Florida, which to me, it's just Florida after a
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: down year. I love to be on a Florida team
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: after a down yere just they really so happy you
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: brought this game up. It's Colin's favorite team, Utah against
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: his least heat. I don't even know if he'll say
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: the coach of Florida's name the guy he hates the
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: most in college football. This will probably be his biggest
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: bet of the weekend. Did you say ute? Listen when
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: you're when you're running up tempo offense with two minutes left,
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: you're beating Ohio by fifty and I lose my under
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: I will not repeat again. That really upset me last year.
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: Scared money, don't make money. You know some people like
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: to do black Tar heroine. I like to do Utah football.
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: I came on Chad's favorite show like two or three
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: years ago, and I said, Utah is gonna win the
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: Pact twelve. They're gonna go to the College Football Playoff.
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: They get to the Pac TWEL Championship, their favorite over
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: organ by a touchdown, and they blew it. They piste
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: down their leg and and and you know Pack twelve
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: does this to themselves all the time. And we know
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: the rules of college football, and SEC team is going
• 29:07
  Speaker 1: to dominate a Pack twelve team in Week one. It
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: happens every time. But you see this, the market is
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: reacting to a heavy I mean enough wagers to move
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: this thing out to a field goal. Now, if you
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: look at what Florida has and what they're bringing back. Yes,
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: they have Anthony Richardson. He's one of the most explosive,
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: dynamic quarterbacks out there. He's also extremely injury prone, and
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: there is nothing behind him whatsoever. There are holes on
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: this defense from from the defensive line to the you know,
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: the back seven is gonna better than they were last year,
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: but the whole Dan Mullen, Todd Grantham Era, just this
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: Florida roster is just completely blown up. I there's nothing
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: I can say good about them. This is a game
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: that I projected well over three even Utah on the
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: road cam rising. I don't know how you don't watch
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: at Rose Bowl and think that he's not a Heisman
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: dark horse contender, even saying that being west of the
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: Mississippi River playing for a Pack twelve team, Uh if
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: if Utah plays to their potential, this game is not close.
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: I I kind of disagree. Um. I think this game
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: is gonna be close, and I wouldn't be shocked at
• 30:10
  Speaker 1: Florida wins. The one factor to keep in mind on
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: these really weird early season matchups is I'll give another example,
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: South Florida against b y U. That game, everyone is
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: all over b y U laying twelve by the way,
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: by the top two receivers might be out. Um and
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: b y U is you know what that they don't
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: have in Utah. They don't have humidity, and they don't
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: have they don't rain. And I think I think Utah
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: by U s oh and one intent. I think the
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: UCF one year in December, they never win in Florida
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: the humidity. Think about the Packers last year when they
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: went they played the Saints in in then they played
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: they played it in Jacksonville in the unit and they
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: look like they were still not ready for the season.
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: These teams from non humid weather going down in their
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: season opener in your humidity against teams that are practicing
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: in it with rain and all that. For the first game,
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: it's tough. Um So keep an eye on South Florida
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: in that regard a couple of years ago early in
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: the season upset b y U and b y U
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: war down Lee. Um So cramps just not ready for it, fumble,
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: So keep that in mind. But I actually think that
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: a Florida Utah game is gonna go right down to
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: the wire. Uh, We've hit polygamy, We've hit black tar heroin.
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: If we can get like some kind of murder murder
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: dir er uh in the rest of the show, I
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: think we hit the trifecta. Uh. You guys are both
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: on Texas State as an underdog against Nevada before we
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: get to college football playoff and any other futures that
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: you think are worth betting. I always like, like there's
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: so many games in college football. I want to give
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: people a taste of how to look down the board
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: and see value, because a unit win is a unit
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: win no matter who you better. So Colin, give me
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: a Texas State take here. Jake's favotol multiple years at
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: Texas State has an offense established with a quarterback that
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: made a name for himself at Arkansas State. Uh, they're
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: going to be able to do more damage against the
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: Nevada defense that frankly had no business beating New Mexico State.
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: And week zero a Nevada defense that has non scholarship
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: players in the too deep going through a scheme change,
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: and then a Nevada offense that is the same thing,
• 32:40
  Speaker 1: all run based slow clock grind. Uh. This number was
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: six and a half. By the time Nevada was playing
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: to Mexico State, it was down around five and a half.
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: And by the time that game was over, win Nevada
• 32:52
  Speaker 1: one by what eleven? That line dropped all the way
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: down to a pick. So what's going on right now?
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: With teams like Nevada, Arkansas State, Hawaii. Books cannot find
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: where the floor is and so you're gonna see this
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: number move until they find somebody that they respect to
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: find this number. Is that a pick? I don't know
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: because right now I see a look, it's got Texas
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: State minus one and a half. A sun belt eave
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: a favorite on the road in elevation is crazy. But
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: the books are going to struggle to find the floor
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: and the market. And when they do, it's probably gonna
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: pay off him because this thing has moved a lot.
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: It's moved a touchdown in just a few days. That's
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: an insane move. Stuff. What do you think of that? Yeah?
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: And Nevada is awful. Um they last week they beat
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: in Mexico State is one of the worst programs in
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: the country by eleven yet but they had five turnovers
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: to New Mexico State zero. They turned it over themselves
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: with the refts, failed to review it. They fumbled it
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: twice recovered. Both were thoroughly outplayed the average three yards
• 33:49
  Speaker 1: per pass. There's an offense that lost, you know, pro
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: pro potential strong at quarterback. Romeo dubs every seve that
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: was their whole team based their old staff, they're the
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: fewest returning starters and off college football and a brand
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: new staff as concert there's no depth Ivan and last
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: week they looked awful. I thought they were gonna be awful.
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: I bet season win total under and I downgraded them
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: last week. Um so, yeah, this team is gonna be
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: bad and then or something an angle worth that only
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: comes up this week every year, and it's unique to
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: college football. Is unlike the NFL, where everyone starts in
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: week one. In college football, you have a few teams
• 34:24
  Speaker 1: that start in week zero and then you know they'll
• 34:27
  Speaker 1: play a team that is playing their opener in week one.
• 34:31
  Speaker 1: And if you look back historically, I wrote this all
• 34:33
  Speaker 1: up and go really in depth on the action never
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: gap in action work dot com teams that are playing,
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: you might ask. You might sit back and ask yourself, Okay,
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: who has the advantage here? Maybe it's the team who
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: already played, right They they got the rust out, they
• 34:46
  Speaker 1: got to get live game experience, and now they get
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: to go play again. They're gonna have a leg up
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: on the team that hasn't played yet. Well, yeah, the
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: opposite is actually true. The past twenty five years, the
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: team playing their first game against an opponent has already played,
• 34:59
  Speaker 1: has covered a at the time FBS first FBS. The
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: reason for that, in my opinion, is twofold one. You
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: have a preparation advantage, right instead of while the other
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: team was preparing for another opponent last week, you were
• 35:12
  Speaker 1: preparing for your season opener. And most importantly, in my opinion,
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: you have a film advage. You get to see what
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: they did. And in college pole there's a lot of
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: turnover coaches, new players, so you get to see what
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: they did on film and adjust, and then you have
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: that advantage of the unknown. They haven't seen what you
• 35:28
  Speaker 1: want to do yet, and you can kind of unleash
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: some of your wrinkles. So that applies here. Texas State
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: is playing their first game of the season. Nevada played
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: last week. They gotta get to see what they did
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: and adjust, and Nevada won't really have that edge. You
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: know what it's time for right now? Little college football
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: plaft reveal stucky, you're college football Final four. I'm gonna
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: say Albama Ohio State first of all, and they're playing
• 35:56
  Speaker 1: for the national title, so they're in. And the other
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: two it really doesn't matter. It is really wide open.
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna say, oh my gosh, Miami and Georgia. But
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: I have no conviction in those other two teams. It
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: is that wide open, Like I wouldn't be shocked if
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: a number of teams getting that. I think the A
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: C C. I think the big twelves gonna catagorize itself.
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: Do I trust anyone in the Pac twelve? Colin is
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: gonna tell you Utah, but not really. No Oregon hosts Utah,
• 36:29
  Speaker 1: anything gonna beat them, and it's the PAC twelve one
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: of the ever so then where are you left with
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: Like you're down of the a c C, A second
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: SEC team, like the big Tents not getting too So
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: it's I think it's gonna be And I don't trust
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: Clemson quarterback situation. If if DJ their quarterback ends up
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: taking a big stuff forward and they lost their coordinators
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: and they come out of the a SEC, they host
• 36:51
  Speaker 1: NC State, NC State will be in the mix to
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: win the a SEC. Then Clemson will come out of it.
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: But um, I'm gonna you know, you can't just go
• 36:59
  Speaker 1: all chalk I'm gonna throw Miami out coming out of
• 37:01
  Speaker 1: the a c C. And then I'll go with the
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: second SEC team, um boring Georgia. And then it's Alabama
• 37:10
  Speaker 1: High State Chalkie Chalkie national title game this year and
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: it should be the one. And then you expect Alabama,
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: Ohio State h we want to uh, I'll say High
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: State colin you like Miami too, You're like Utah, who's
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: your who's your? Nobody believes it college football playoff pick.
• 37:32
  Speaker 1: And by the way, I subscribe to the theory when
• 37:35
  Speaker 1: I was the editor in chief of USP in the magazine,
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: as everybody knows, I was a pretty big deal. Yeah.
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: I used to always uh go with the most outrageous
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: Super Bowl predictions because my theory was, at the end
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: of the year, who gives a funk if you're like wrong,
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: and if you're right, then it means you made the
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: outrageous choice and you didn't go with the Cowboys in
• 37:59
  Speaker 1: the Niners or I mean, are the Cowboys and the
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: Patriots right, which is what everybody would do. So yeah,
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: but I'm going to disagree with you now on today's
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: day and age. And this is really funny you said
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: that because on Saturday watching Game Day, I and you
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: can have a tweet saying, like, look, outrageousness was you know,
• 38:15
  Speaker 1: that's the whole premise of Freezing Cold Takes. Desmond Howard
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: came out with his College wal playoff prediction. It was
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: the most outrageous thing I've ever seen. It was Baylor, UM, Michigan,
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: Texas A and M and someone else and then Texas
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: A and M winning it. So I said, I took
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: my calendar out and put an event on the day
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: that the College Toll play Off as announced and said,
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: remember Desmond Howard tweet. Then I'm gonna go back and
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: then say here it is so but I think back
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: in the day, you're right, um, but you just can't
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: be that crazy. It's college football, like you, there's there's
• 38:57
  Speaker 1: been like eight teams in total I have ever made
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: the constball plowf It is like you'll have one like
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: Cincinnati last year. It's like whoa. You can't have like
• 39:05
  Speaker 1: four teams that never make it getting in all once,
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: especially this year. Like if you think about it in
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: years past, we've had like last year, Alabama and Georgia.
• 39:13
  Speaker 1: I had them like really close coming into the year.
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: And you know, Ohio State's always been up there. Clemson
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: has always been up there up until last year and
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: then they took a big drop down. We've never had
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: this separation with Ohio State in Alabama at the top
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: is probably is as big of a gap going into
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: the season. Things can change, as we've seen from two
• 39:34
  Speaker 1: to three in a long time. And you're Greek com
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: oh absolutely yeah, like Ohio State in Alabama? Am I
• 39:39
  Speaker 1: pick in the National Championship Game? I have money on
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: Ohio State, But that's only because fan duel happened. Was
• 39:45
  Speaker 1: happy enough to put them out at eight to one
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: for me right after the national championship last year. But
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: I am going to fire in Alabama at some point
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: because that's your national championship game, and I do think
• 39:53
  Speaker 1: the Crimson Tide by then will be the ones that
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: win this. So stuck, you know, I'll go head to
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: head there. The other two teams, Like twelve teams have
• 39:59
  Speaker 1: made the College Froball playoffs, seven of them never had
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: a chance. So I'm glad that we're gonna talk about
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: expanding the playoffs. It doesn't matter. There's only a couple
• 40:06
  Speaker 1: of programs that can win the national title. Yeah, but
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: it doesn't matter. But it's fun and we can bet
• 40:09
  Speaker 1: on it. So yes, Expand, Expand, expand please. I mean,
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: I would rather have the RNL Carrier's Bowl featuring app
• 40:17
  Speaker 1: State and somebody, you know, somebody from the a C.
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: Then then watch a quarterfinal game with Wake Forest in it.
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: But all right, so the other two only you don't
• 40:25
  Speaker 1: want to see Arkansas into plays you want a chance
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: to have, you gonna give him a playoff? Come on,
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: my Collins fading Arkansas, Chad, You've got to ask him.
• 40:35
  Speaker 1: We were talking about so many games. I didn't get
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: to ask him about Arkansas. I wanted Simon to ask
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: him about Arkansas, but he went on this tangent about Florida.
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: He started making his own decisions on the Goddamn podcast. Yeah, well,
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: since then, he's gonna cover against Arkansas, So get your
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: number there. Arkansas has got way too many questions on
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: the defensive line and Trail and Burks has gone, so
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: we don't know who k J. Jefferson wants to throw too.
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: But uh, you know, as far as my playoff picks go,
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: I agree with stucky Alabama, ohouse state, head and shoulders
• 41:02
  Speaker 1: above everybody else in college football. I'm gonna take uh
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: NC State beating Clemson in October. They've done it before,
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: they're gonna do it again. They're not scared. They're gonna
• 41:12
  Speaker 1: win the a SEC. They're gonna be in the College
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: Ball Playoff and then yeah, Utah, Sure, they go to Oregon,
• 41:17
  Speaker 1: but they also host USC and right circles. With one
• 41:20
  Speaker 1: loss heading into the Pack twelve Championship, they'll be right
• 41:22
  Speaker 1: at the door again and they will make it if
• 41:24
  Speaker 1: they can win that stupid championship game down in Vegas. Hopefully,
• 41:28
  Speaker 1: they're pulling the rebel roller, uh and going to the
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: college football playoffs. Here it comes the rebel roller just
• 41:35
  Speaker 1: unfailed today a giant slot machine used to the wake
• 41:40
  Speaker 1: of any u n LV score or turnover forced. But
• 41:44
  Speaker 1: again I agree with Stuck. The alloy on House State
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: are so far ahead of everybody else. Collins phone at Chad.
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: He's you just say Utah every year, and then the
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: one time you get it right, eventually you say, I
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: said it was Utah. I knew it was Utah. Utah. Baby.
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: Act's gotta get back in someday, like someday that I mean,
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: they're the refs have to know that. We gotta get
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: a team in like I mean someday Sunday. Yes, Chad,
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: I made an executive Chad. Chad wanted to ask you
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: about Arkansas. I thought, no one wants hear about that.
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: I want to hear about the Utah thing because I'm
• 42:17
  Speaker 1: trying to save Colin money. That's my goal here. I
• 42:20
  Speaker 1: wasn't on their show last week. I couldn't tell him
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: Northwestern lock of the Lifetime. I gets that fraud. I'm
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: trying to save them money here because the Utah As
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: soon as I saw the line stunk. Deadline stinks, It
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: smells of a trap. Nothing you can say. Simon Colin
• 42:35
  Speaker 1: turn red. As soon as I started going, I go,
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: I've made a huge mistake. But uh yeah, at this point, Chad,
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: it's week one. What do we want now? We want
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: their long shot futures, but their best bets either one works.
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: I mean I gave out was a Van Dyke eighty
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: one to be Heisman. Now, I mean I got guys
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: like Stucky tell me Miami actually might make it the playoffs.
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: Thank you, Stucky. I needed that. I needed that boost.
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: Give me some lunch. Because you know college football, I
• 43:01
  Speaker 1: mean we've had the Baker mayfields, the fifty to one
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: Heisman guys come out of nowhere. Is there anything like
• 43:06
  Speaker 1: that this year? You can see happening where it kind
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: of feels like the field is wide open. Go get
• 43:10
  Speaker 1: Southern miss at fifty to one to win the Sun Belt.
• 43:12
  Speaker 1: They are in a joke of a division. Uh. They
• 43:16
  Speaker 1: returned a ton ty keys at quarterback is amazing. Uh.
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: They didn't even have a quarterback last year after having
• 43:22
  Speaker 1: five of them injured, and they used two running backs
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: to run it under center. They have a proven coach
• 43:27
  Speaker 1: they from the offensive side of the ball, and like
• 43:30
  Speaker 1: I said, that division is an absolute joke and they've
• 43:32
  Speaker 1: got a stinker of a schedule to make it to
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: the championship game. Yeah that uh, I don't mind a
• 43:38
  Speaker 1: flyer there in Southern Miss week this week against Liberty,
• 43:41
  Speaker 1: everyal like them plus three and a half. So the
• 43:43
  Speaker 1: Miss also took liberties offensive line coach from last year,
• 43:45
  Speaker 1: a really good offensive line coach who knows everything Liberty
• 43:49
  Speaker 1: does inside an out, and it's probably gonna help this summer.
• 43:52
  Speaker 1: I'll throw out. You gotta go with the Mac. Like
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: long shots in the MAC are it's the most wide
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: open conference, the conference. You can see the biggest turnaround.
• 43:59
  Speaker 1: Shameless plug, go reby MAC manifesto. If you're into reading
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: words about the MAC um but Ohio and or Eastern
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: Michigan whatever you know, if you they're both green, I
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: guess so yeah, I don't know. You've gade me throw
• 44:16
  Speaker 1: books people to pick both, but whatever, you have a
• 44:18
  Speaker 1: better number on I think I haven't like fifteen one.
• 44:23
  Speaker 1: I think both have upside. There's so much uncertainty in
• 44:27
  Speaker 1: the MAC this year. Ohio especially is in just an
• 44:31
  Speaker 1: horrendous division that's wide open and it's the MAC. It's
• 44:34
  Speaker 1: just gonna come down to like a couple of field
• 44:37
  Speaker 1: goals during weekdays, and that's going to decide who goes
• 44:40
  Speaker 1: to the MAC Championship. So yeah, Ohio Eastern Michigan throw
• 44:43
  Speaker 1: a dark I think, in this spirit of polygamy, in
• 44:48
  Speaker 1: the spirit of saving the environment, put put a couple
• 44:52
  Speaker 1: of shekels on both. Go green. See what I'm saying,
• 44:57
  Speaker 1: m h uh huh, go Green. I like it. I
• 45:00
  Speaker 1: like it a lot. Uh. Boys, as Howard Stern says,
• 45:07
  Speaker 1: you've said it all. We got long shots from the MAC.
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: We got long shots from the Sunbeat. We're betting against Arkansas.
• 45:14
  Speaker 1: We're on opposite sides of Florida. We got some college
• 45:17
  Speaker 1: football playoff long shots. We got some bets for Thursday.
• 45:20
  Speaker 1: We got some bets for Saturday. Whoa Colin Wilson Stucky?
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: Go follow them both in the Action Network gap. You
• 45:29
  Speaker 1: can get every bet they make the second they make it,
• 45:32
  Speaker 1: so then you can get the best of the number
• 45:35
  Speaker 1: two wherever you are. Listen to them on the Big
• 45:39
  Speaker 1: Bets on Campus podcast to top two hundred sports podcasts
• 45:44
  Speaker 1: the podcast charts. You can see him Big Bets on
• 45:47
  Speaker 1: Campus ten thirty am Saturday Morning Live show get the
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: latest on what they're thinking, along with Brett McMurphy, the
• 45:54
  Speaker 1: mustache in the Action Network cap. Thanks boys, thanks for
• 45:58
  Speaker 1: having us. Cheers all right. This has been the favorite
• 46:01
  Speaker 1: podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. I am Shad Millman
• 46:06
  Speaker 1: for Simon Hunter for producer extraordinarire Matt Mitchell. Download the
• 46:10
  Speaker 1: podcast from Apple Podcasts from Spotify, Rate us review, subscribe,
• 46:15
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• 46:18
  Speaker 1: a gift. Until next time, I love you.