Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 534 - 6/18/26 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 534 - 6/18/26 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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54321 All systems Go with Josh Applebaum starts now.
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Hello and. Welcome to episode 534 of the
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All Systems. Go sports betting podcast
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powered by Rhythm. I am your host.
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Josh Applebaum. What's going on, everyone?
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Happy Thirsty Thursday, another day here.
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In the arena, guys only got today, tomorrow and.
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Then the big weekend. Here ahead as always and you
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know what it's. Only three days away.
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From Father's Day and now this is a special day for me because
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I am a proud father of A. Nearly 3.
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Month old baby girl. So I'm excited to celebrate my
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first Father's Day, see what the wife has in store.
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We'll be going to a cookout at my mother in law's.
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So very much looking forward to that.
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One of the reason I say that is because you might be 1 of, you
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know, get dad. The gift here or?
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Get him something you know he doesn't.
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Have to be something crazy you don't have.
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To spend, you know, 1000 bucks on it.
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But maybe you want to get dad something just to let him know
1:10
that hey, I love you, you're great.
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Or maybe it's your your son who's a father or uncle or
1:15
whoever, or your grandfather or grandson.
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But if you are looking for a last second Father's Day gift, I
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have a great idea for you. Instead of getting dad a
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collared shirt, instead of getting dad, you know, a pair of
1:27
a pair of boxers or I don't know, a set of golf balls, you
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should get dad something. That he will find.
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Interesting and find hopefully. To be a money maker, and that is
1:37
by simply going to. Amazon.com.
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And typing in the. Everything Guide to sports.
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Betting or the? NFL sharp betting playbook.
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Now, those are both my books. I've written both of them, very
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proud of them and I think they make a great Father's Day gift.
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It's just something that I think Dad will find interesting.
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Hopefully you know help. Him make some money.
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And I think you know if you. Can use it.
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To his advantage, he'll be able to buy as many golf balls and
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collared shirts as he wants. So if you're able to pick that
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up today, tomorrow or I believe? Even.
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Saturday it. Should be able to.
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Be dropped off by Sunday, wherever you are thanks to Jeff
2:09
Bezos and his drone and the and the and the incredible, you
2:13
know, delivery service of Amazon.
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So again, if you're looking for a last minute Father's Day gift,
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it's under 20 bucks. You're supporting your your
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favorite podcast host over here, but more importantly, you're
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dropping some knowledge to dad. So hopefully he will enjoy that.
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Now looking toward today, guys want to get this pot out early
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once again because we're getting right back.
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To some MLB Day sweats. Now there's only 9.
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Games overall today, so we got a smaller than usual slate, but we
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got some day games. I got 2 day sweats, I got a
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night sweat for you all three money line favorites, all three
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have really good sharp mush edges as well.
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So it looks like our fellow wise guys and wise gals who have
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downloaded Juice Reel synced up their books, they're going with
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these plays here as well. So three pack as always, trying
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to eke out a winning day, trying to go 2 and 1.
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So let's see if we can get a couple winners here.
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On the diamond. On a big Thursday now looking
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back toward yesterday, guys, you can have you basically have a
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different record based upon however you played yesterday.
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Overall 1 and 2 -, 1.4 units had a good win.
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With AD backs 8. To one over LA didn't have to
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sweat that one very much, but the Nats let us down.
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Lost six to two against Kansas City.
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The Red Sox, man, are they pathetic.
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I even mentioned going into last night, like, here I go bet
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betting a sharp play, but I'm a Red Sox fan, you know, tried and
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true and they stink this year. And what happened?
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Well, they left 13 men on base and went over. 13 with runners
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in. Scoring position so pathetic
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losing 3 nothing to Toronto. But here's the thing, Red Sox,
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that was a action versus listed pitcher.
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So if you played action, you lost the Red Sox.
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If you did, listed pitcher Max Scherzer got scratched right
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before the game started and the Red Sox were like -125 they got
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down to -1. 15 so if. You did listed pitcher that
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would have saved you on the Red Sox instead of a loss that was a
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no action refund. However, the other note, the
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other other side of that I should say is that the Atlanta
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Braves from the previous night where a suspended game because
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of rain and they. Picked up the game.
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Yesterday in the second inning when it was what, three to two
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Giants and the Braves lost, I think it was 7 to 2, did
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nothing. So again, depending on what you
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played, no action listed pitcher, whatever the case may
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be, you're looking at a, you know, a A1 in one with a push,
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A1 in two or one in three. Either way, guys didn't produce
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a winning day no matter how you slice it.
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So we're going to see if we can get get right back into it today
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and hopefully get a couple winners.
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As we steam into. A big Friday and then another.
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Big weekend. So that being said, don't want
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to waste any more time and get right to these MLB plays for
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today because I tell you what in.
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Baseball. What's funny is.
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When? You have a good day, you can't
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wait. This is for.
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Me, maybe you feel the same. You have a good winning day.
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You cannot wait to get right back into it and get some more
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action the next day. But then also, if you have a
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losing day or things don't go your way, you're scratching,
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champing at the bit. People say chomping at the bit.
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It's actually champing at the bit.
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It's a little Jeopardy question there.
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You're champing at the bit to get right back at it to produce
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a winning day. So either way, for me with
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baseball, the grinding aspect of baseball, the grinders with
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blinders, mentalities that win or lose, you know you're trying
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to get right back at it and get get in the green or stay in the
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green. With that being said, 3 plays,
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let's try to get 2 out of three. First one on the board, early
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game, 1:35 PM Eastern Time. I'm going right back and doing
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it guys, we're doing it. Toronto Blue Jays at the Boston
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Red Sox, your early game today. Let's set the stage.
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Talk splits, line move system matches, and I'll give you my
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play for this one. So the Jays 36 and 38, they've
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taken. The first two games of.
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This three-game series, they won the opener 6 to 1.
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As a minus. 120 road favorite then they.
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Won again yesterday. 3 nothing as a -1 O 5 road dog because.
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My Red Sox. Can't hit and Craig Breslow, Mr.
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Pitcher, They're completely neglected the lineup.
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So what? Are you going to do?
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Now, this afternoon series finale, some reasons for
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optimism. I'm going Red Sox once again,
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guys. I'm the crazy person going right
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back to the. Boston, even they keep, you
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know, they keep. Beating me down, ripping my
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heart out and jumping, dancing to the beat.
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And see if we can. Get a winner here because
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they're sharp and I like to play sharp plays, but the Blue Jays
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are going to go. With the ready tray a Savage,
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he's three and three with a three-point. 7-8 ERA, The Red
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Sox. Who are now 29 and 42.
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They're going to go with the ready Sonny Gray, who's.
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Actually been a bright spot. One of the only moves other than
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Wilson Venturas that actually has worked out for the Red Sox.
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But he is 8 and one with a three-point O3 ERA now.
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What have we seen across the board?
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Well, this game opened Red Sox listed around a. -115 home
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favorite Toronto around a. -1 O five row dog.
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And as bad as the Red Sox have been, you know, again, short
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favorite here. You would think maybe sharps
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like yeah, Red Sox stink. Might as well take Toronto.
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You're getting basically just a short juice price.
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Nope. Sharps.
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They're doing it. They're.
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Going the Red Sox once again because this line.
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Keeps steaming up toward. Boston Red Sox have gone from
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minus. 1:15. Up to -1. 30 and I'm now.
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Seeing some books get closer to -1. 40 so good.
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Sign here that this line keeps going to Boston.
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Over at Circa, the Red Sox are. Only getting 36.
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Percent. Of money line bets, but 55.
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Percent of money line dollars so good low bets higher dollar
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sharp contrarian split and again we.
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Can actually call this? A fade the trendy dog play as
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well because again, majority tickets Toronto but lines going
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to Boston and then we got a lot of system matches on the Red Sox
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home favorites -140 or less they're. 202 and 15357.
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Percent 3% ROI this year if you're a sweet spot home
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favorite. Between -125 and minus. 1. 40
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Who made the? Playoffs the previous year.
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Facing an opponent who? Also made the playoffs the
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previous year. Those teams are 50 and 2369.
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Percent, 21% ROI since the start of last year.
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And then here's the other angle if you're a favorite.
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And you lost the 1st 2:00. Games of a series.
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It's a three-game set and you're trying to avoid the sweep in
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that last game, like the situation for Boston here.
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Those teams are 44 and 2861. Percent with a 7% ROI this year,
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mentioned Sonny Gray. Again.
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One of the lone bright spots for Boston Red Sox are nine and two
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in his last 11 starts and at home.
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Knock on. Woody's Four and O 2.32.
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ERA Meanwhile Treya Savage, who burst on the scene in the
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playoffs last year and was pretty good much of this year,
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he's tailed off a bit Let's hope the Red Sox bats, as as terrible
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as they are, can hopefully get to you Savage because in two
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starts in. June he has a nine. .28 ERA.
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He's giving up eleven runs in 10.2 innings.
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Pitched. So I fully admit the Red Sox are
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terrible, but usually you want to be with the sharp side.
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Sharp side here is Boston. We got good system matches.
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Favorite avoiding the sweep? Hopefully sunny Gray.
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Pitch as well. The Red Sox bats can do
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something, at least against Savage.
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Savage. Oh, by the way.
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I noticed an 18. Percent pretty good sharp mush
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edge on the Red Sox from our friends at Juice Rail.
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So you add it all up here, guys, I got Red Sox. -121.
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At Bally Bet. Most books I'm.
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Seeing now are closer to minus. 130 even.
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Inching up toward -140 So it's a good thing this line gets more
9:03
expensive because it tells you. Smart money keeps.
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Pouring in on Boston, not a great thing if you haven't bet
9:08
it yet because again, you're laying a little bit more, but
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still a relatively short juice price And I would mention that
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Bally bet. Gave me a 50.
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Percent odds boost on Boston, so I went from -120. 1.
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To plus 125 S, again, whether or not you have a Bally bet
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account. Whole point being there is when
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you shop for the best line, don't just find the book with
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the best number. Also look to see what kind of
9:31
boost that that sports book is offering you because you always
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want to take advantage. So again, definition of of
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insanity play. Who knows, maybe the Red Sox are
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sharp and boy do they they owe us a win here.
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So I'm on Boston again -121 boosted at Bally bet next bet
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for you. Now a good team, hopefully
9:49
that'll come through. For us to 10.
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PM, Eastern Time. We got the Cleveland Guardians
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visiting the Milwaukee. Brew Crew.
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Now Brewers come in 45 and 26. On the year they've taken the
9:59
first two games of this three-game interleague series,
10:02
they won the opener. 2:00 to 1:00.
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As a -1. 55 home favorite. They won again yesterday, 9:00
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to 4:00 as a -, 125 home. Favorite So in this afternoon
10:11
series finale, the Guardians, who are 39 and 35, they're going
10:14
to. Start the lefty Parker.
10:15
Messick. He's 6:00 and 3:00.
10:17
With a 2.68, uh, a. Meanwhile, the Brew Crew go with
10:21
the fellow southpaw. Shane Drohan.
10:23
He is 3 and 2. With a 3.59, uh a so.
10:25
What are you? Seeing across the market here.
10:28
Well, this game opened Milwaukee around a minus. 135 home.
10:31
Favorite Cleveland around a + 115 row dog.
10:34
And sharps lay in the wood with the broker.
10:37
To get a win and. Hopefully complete the sweep
10:39
here. Because we've seen Milwaukee get
10:40
steamed. Up -135 now up to -145 Some
10:45
shops as high as -1. 50 even -155 S very clear steam.
10:50
Coming down in favor of the beer makers.
10:52
Now, if you're looking to be a little bit bold, I'll admit I
10:55
just went Brewers. Money line -1. 45 at the score.
10:59
But I did I did notice some sharp splits on the Milwaukee
11:01
run line. If you're feeling bold -1 1/2 at
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plus 145 because the Brewers. Are getting 66.
11:07
Percent of spread bets. 86. Percent of spread dollars at.
11:10
DK and 67. Percent of spread bets 75% of
11:14
spread dollars at Circa Good System matches here on Milwaukee
11:19
and above. 500 home favorite off a win with a winning record.
11:22
Priced -150. 5 or less again, Brewers hovering around -150
11:27
ish. So they're right in that little
11:28
zone like the Brewers here. Those teams are 76 and 4861.
11:34
Percent, 8% ROI this year. When both.
11:37
Teams are above 500. Just take the team receiving
11:40
line movement. So 2 good teams.
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Take the team that's. Getting that line movement where
11:44
sharps are in their favor. Those teams are 99 and 5863.
11:48
Percent 15% ROI this year. Correlative betting value on the
11:53
Brew Crew. They are a favorite now upwards
11:55
of -1. 50 and a very low total game of. 7 1/2 So fair amount of
11:59
expected run scored more likely to come from quote UN quote that
12:02
better team was expected to win. And hope the Milwaukee bats get
12:06
to. Messick here today, Milwaukee.
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Sitting 255 with 381 run scored, Cleveland's only hitting 229
12:14
with 294 runs scored. You also look at home Rd.
12:18
splits, Brewers. Hitting 259 at home.
12:20
This year, that's the fifth best home batting average Guardians.
12:24
Are only hitting 219 on the. Road.
12:25
That's the second. Worst.
12:27
Also popped open juice. Reel nothing huge.
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But a 4% sharp mush edge, positive edge here in favor of
12:34
Milwaukee. So we got a big steam move.
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We got low bets, higher dollars. We got sharp bet splits, better
12:40
bats. Seen if hopefully.
12:42
We can make some beer and go down the Brewers slide together.
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I'm on Milwaukee guys -145 at the score again.
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Shop around. A lot of books.
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Closer now -150 ish Last night of the night, couple day games.
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How about a night? Game going to stay.
12:56
Up late here, let's go to the West Coast 9. 40 PM Eastern
13:00
Time. We got the LA.
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Angels visiting the Athletics. And you know what, guys, a
13:05
little tip. If you're betting an A's game
13:06
and they're the home team, figure out where they are
13:09
because they've been in Vegas, they're in Sacramento.
13:12
Obviously they abandoned Oakland a long time ago.
13:15
But you got to know where they're.
13:17
Playing because those super high totals in Vegas, obviously, you
13:21
know, we saw like a. 14 total, 13 because the.
13:24
Elevation and the wind blowing out and all that.
13:27
But they are back in Sacramento here.
13:29
They're they're, you know, kind of a foster home, if you want to
13:32
call it that, before they officially go to the New Vegas
13:34
Stadium, which should be pretty nice.
13:36
And I can't wait. To visit anyway.
13:38
The angels come in 30 and 45 on the year just dropped.
13:41
Two or three against the D backs.
13:43
Lost yesterday's series finale. 8 to 1 as a -140.
13:46
Five row dog, meanwhile. The A's 36 and 38 they also
13:50
just. Lost two or three against the
13:52
Pirates. Got rolled 12 to 4 yesterday as
13:55
a + 1. 15 home dog. Now, in tonight's series opener,
13:59
the Angels are going to go with the ready Jose Soriano.
14:01
He's 8. And four with a 2.79 ERA A's,
14:05
meanwhile, going with the lefty this guy.
14:07
Have you ever heard this guy's name?
14:08
What a great name gauge. Jump gauge, jump.
14:12
Great. Night great name 2 and. 13 point
14:15
O9ER right now what? Do we see across the market will
14:17
this? Game Open A's listed around a
14:19
minus. 125 home favorite angels around A + 1 O five row dog and
14:24
sharps. Hitting the A's and Mr. Gauge
14:26
jump because we've seen the A's get steamed up. -125 now up to
14:30
around -135 -, 140 some shops even. -145.
14:35
South a clear steam. Move in favor.
14:36
Of the athletics now look over. At circa over 90.
14:41
Percent of money, line bets and dollars going on.
14:43
The A's. So it tells me you have a one.
14:45
Way sharp bet split on the. A's from the Vegas Sharps.
14:48
System matches here, lighting up on the A's if you're a home
14:51
favorite facing an. Opponent who missed the.
14:52
Playoffs the previous year. He's matched that one.
14:55
Those teams are 133 and 9359%. Win rate 6%.
15:00
ROI this year in particular, did you know A's are the third most
15:04
profitable bounce back team in? Baseball when they lose.
15:07
They come back the next day and go. 21 and 1657% win rate, 17%
15:12
ROI. Again lost yesterday, hopefully
15:14
they can come. Through today going to bank.
15:16
On the A's bats, hopefully. Getting.
15:18
To Soriano, they're hitting. 251 as a team for 20 slugging
15:22
percentage. Angels.
15:23
Hitting two 38394 slugging percentage A's, meanwhile,
15:27
hitting 270 at home. That's the.
15:29
Second best home batting average in baseball A's are.
15:33
Also hitting 248 against righties that ranks 9th in.
15:35
Baseball, meanwhile. Angels only hitting 2:30.
15:38
Five against lefties, that ranks 22nd.
15:41
Lastly, this guy gauge jump. He has posted a 1.96 ERA.
15:46
And three June starts. All of which were wins for the
15:49
A's and only gave up four earned runs in. 18.1 Innings Pitch.
15:54
So we have a line move toward gauge jump in the A's.
15:58
We got sharp bet split system matches the third best bounce
16:01
back team in baseball. Better bats at home, better bats
16:04
against radies. And oh by the way, popped open
16:06
Juice Real and noticed a 69% a big big, big sharp mush edge in
16:11
favor of the A's from our friends at Juice Real.
16:14
Add all up guys staying up late. I'll be holding my daughter,
16:18
doing the night shift, helping her, helping her get her milk
16:22
and burper and do the whole thing.
16:24
And we're going to watch the A's game together.
16:25
So looking forward to that. But I got the A's -135 at the
16:29
score again. Shop around.
16:31
A lot of books now closer to -140 -, 145 S Red Sox, Brewers
16:36
A's. So you can get two out of three.
16:38
Get back in the green on a big Thursday.
16:41
As always, guys, First off, before we finish up the pod
16:44
here, a few things to to leave you with.
16:46
I always want to start first by saying thank you.
16:49
Thank you for tuning in, thank you for grinding in the arena
16:52
with me every single day. Through the wins and the losses,
16:54
the good and the bad, the UPS and the downs, the hot streaks,
16:57
the cold streaks. But every day we approach.
16:59
The board with a open. Mind not betting what we want or
17:03
think or hope will happen, but what the market is telling us
17:05
will happen. Learning to.
17:06
Make data-driven bets. With our head and on our heart.
17:09
For that I am very honored and I appreciate you guys.
17:12
If you do want to help me grow this pod, please you enjoy the
17:14
insights. OK, Do me a favor, just give the
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pod a five star review on Spotify or iTunes.
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Recommend the pod to a friend. Retweet the pod.
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When I put it out on Twitter, I'll click the follow button
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anywhere. All those things.
17:25
Would be very much appreciated next if you enjoy the style of
17:29
sports betting. Data-driven sharp contrarian
17:32
betting focusing on line movement.
17:33
Bet split system matches. Taking a contrarian approach,
17:36
trying to. Piece together the puzzle of
17:38
what the market is telling us if this style of betting has
17:40
appealed to you. You want to learn?
17:42
More about data-driven betting You want to make your your
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podcast host happy or. Again, you need that late minute
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or last. Minute, I should say Father's
17:49
Day gift for dad. Go to Amazon.com.
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Type in the everything. Guide to sports betting.
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Or the NFL. Sharp Betting Playbook.
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Grab one or both of my books. Bring them the sports book.
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I'll sign them for you. We'll buy Dad a beer or ginger
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ale. Will sweat some baseball with
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Dad next? Have you downloaded Rhythm and
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Juice Real yet? My two favorite sports betting
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apps. They help me win.
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I'm confident they're going to help you win.
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There's just another great box to check off when you're.
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Then of course, Juice Reel. So many great features.
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Get a running report card of your action.
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You get the robo Jackson best bet picks the sharp mush
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indicators. The arbitrage plays the shop for
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the best line futures. If you also would like to
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support the pod, I'm going to pass the hat.
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I got a little tip jar. This pod is free.
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It cost you nothing to listen. If you like the insights value
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please go sign up for some juice Reel best bet picks.
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As soon as I make a bet, it goes right to the ASG podcast Juice
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Reel best bet page and to get access to that page there's a 7
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way, guys, download rhythm, download juicer.
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I'll give them both a five star review in the App Store.
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So as always, guys, two final thoughts, one, whether I see.
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You at the Borgata? In Atlantic.
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City, Twin River. In Rhode Island, the Brooklyn,
19:36
New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in Connecticut
19:39
at the Encore in Boston, Plain Ridge Park Casino, MGM
19:42
Springfield or the Nash in my neck of the woods on the border
19:45
of Massachusetts In New Hampshire, we're out in the
19:47
desert where the wise guys go get down, get the lowest as
19:51
possible at the South Point, or jumping in the stadium swimming
19:53
pool when you catch a big ticket at Circle, wherever it may be.
19:56
You can show me a snakes ticket D backs.
19:58
Came through for us, but Red Sox D backs.
20:02
Or, sorry, Red Sox, Gnats, Braves.
20:04
Really, the Braves. You lose.
20:06
Two straight against the G men. Unbelievable.
20:08
But first ones on me. Next one's on you will post
20:10
about the book Sweat sharp and train plays all day long.
20:14
So as always, guys coming off a one and two or a one and three
20:17
or a one one and one or a winning night or a losing night
20:20
or a hot streak or a cold streak, again, we just got to.
20:22
Continue to grind. Long term, never get too high,
20:25
cocky, arrogant and think betting is easy.
20:27
When we're winning. Never get too low down to the
20:30
dumps, depressed and think betting's impossible when we're
20:33
losing. We just got to stay right there
20:35
in the middle stay. Even keeled.
20:37
Stay positive, stay optimistic. Know that we're in a really
20:41
difficult. Betting market got to overcome
20:43
the juice the odds of supercomputers spit out there in
20:46
Vegas and of course, overcoming bad beats and.
20:49
You know, teams not showing up for us.
20:50
That's all part of betting. You know, in life you're going
20:52
to have good days and bad days, but you're always going to try
20:55
to see the perspective when it's bad and you know, give some, get
20:58
some confidence when it's good. But we.
21:00
Just got to stick to the model find.
21:02
Games. That fit in terms of our
21:04
data-driven head not heart approach and those games are
21:07
games that are against the public, with the house, with the
21:10
pros flatbed. Avoid parlays and get that COV.
21:13
If we can do that, we're. Going to be successful sports
21:15
bettors, so hope everyone has a great Thursday.
21:18
We'll be right back at it tomorrow for a big fade.
21:20
The public Friday edition. That'll be episode 535 of the
21:24
All Systems Go Sports Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
21:28
Good luck everybody, and have a great Thirsty Thursday.